No Profits, All Hype: The Fragile Core of the AI Trade

Travis Hoium
12-17 15:45

The entire "AI Trade" is a confidence game. $Oracle(ORCL)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $IREN Ltd(IREN)$

If the market has confidence that spending will increase and stocks will go up, companies will be able to raise money to spend on capex and stocks will go up.

But if the market loses confidence and stocks drop (like they have) confidence is broken and it can be a downward spiral because NONE of these neoclouds has a sustainable business model today. (Hyperscalers are a different story)

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