$NVDA$ — NVIDIA Stock Forecast 2025: Can the Trend Strengthen?
With the recent lift of the H200 export restrictions, NVIDIA’s lower support zone has improved significantly, while the upper boundary has shifted slightly higher toward 187.5.
Given the unusually high open interest across December and January expirations, NVDA is likely to remain range-bound unless a major bullish catalyst emerges — such as a breakthrough AI application that reignites sector-wide growth.
Without such a catalyst, the realistic expectation is for NVDA to trade between $160–$200 until the January 16th monthly expiration. The Jan 16 200C has 159k OI, and the Jan 19 200C has 106k OI, forming a large open-interest wall that makes a breakout above $200 unlikely for now.
The H200 news has pushed put-opening strikes higher. Extreme hedging has eased, support has strengthened, and the market now prices in a more stable bottom. As a result, I cautiously raise the NVDA trading range to $170–$200.
While removing the H200 export ban is a net positive, the 25% tariff reduces the earnings boost — an estimated $0.20–$0.50 to EPS. But the real catalyst is sentiment: → It reopens optimism for China demand → It rebuilds narrative momentum for NVIDIA’s long-term growth story
This is important for anyone researching NVIDIA stock forecast 2025 or NVDA price predictions.
$SPY$ — S&P 500 Outlook: Crash Risk Declines
Extreme hedging has decreased sharply, reducing the probability of a sudden crash. The previous view stands: → SPY remains in a normal high-level pullback, drifting between $680–$685.
For traders searching “SPY market outlook” or “options trading strategies Singapore”, this environment favors range-bound strategies over directional bets.
$NFLX$ — Netflix Stock Analysis: Is It Time to Buy the Dip?
Netflix has plunged following acquisition headlines, prompting many to ask whether the drop is a buying opportunity.
Put-opening activity shows support: → New puts clustered around $90–$95 → Strong support near the 20-month moving average
However, some bears remain cautious. For example: → 3,000 contracts of the 80P $NFLX 20260821 80.0 PUT$ were opened (~$1.5M premium), targeting a deeper move toward the 120-day moving average near $80.
WBD Arbitrage Play (Warner Bros. Discovery)
Netflix’s implied offer values $WBD around $27.75 per share, while Paramount counter-offered $30 in cash.
Both companies appear committed to acquiring WBD, creating an attractive arbitrage opportunity:
Selling the 27P $WBD 20251219 27.0 PUT$ yields roughly 29% annualized return. Assignment risk is limited — because whichever company wins, WBD will likely be acquired at a higher price.
This is useful for people searching for WBD stock forecast, merger arbitrage strategies, or options income ideas.
A Note for New Readers
Some newcomers find this analysis dense — understandable, as options flow is difficult to distill into short posts. Much of the value also comes from experience interpreting these signals rather than the raw data alone.
To help illustrate the method’s effectiveness, here is this year’s performance. Nothing extraordinary, but consistent — a fair reflection of the daily effort of deep options research.
Let’s continue pushing forward as a community of traders who study the markets seriously every day.
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