In 6 days, the AI narrative will change from:
2025 capex is up HUGE!
to
What is 2026 capex?
The answer to that question and where the spending will happen (ie. where is there ROI?) will determine AI stock performance in 2025.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$
The returns to being the market leader in AI seem lower than any technology in history.
A competitor 6 months behind could see
- Costs 90%+ lower
- Speed 10x faster
If the time to deploy is long (autonomous driving, business model disruption, research), I like the laggards.
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