The debates around DeepSeek are intense - US vs. China, big vs. small models, open vs. closed source, and the shockingly efficient architecture it represents. Pride, fear, disbelief, disgust - all these emotions have clouded the facts. A few personal thoughts:Thoughts on Training Costs: 1⃣ $6M Training Costs = Plausible IMOQuick math: Training costs ∝ (active params * tokens). DeepSeek v3 (37B params; 14.8T tokens) vs. Llama3.1 (405B params; 15T tokens) = v3 theoretically should be 9% of Llama3.1's cost. And the disclosed actual figures aligned with this back-of-the-envelope math, meaning, the number are directionally believable.ImagePlus, there was no hiding, the footnote clearly said: “the aforementioned costs include only the official training of DeepSeek-V3, excluding the costs associa
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DeepSeek - Pride, fear, disbelief, disgust
DeepSeek - Pride, fear, disbelief, disgust
DeepSeek - Cheaper AI is better for all
DeepSeek could certainly accelerate the amount of tinkering / experimenting / prototyping folks do with AI. With lower cost barriers, why not try out more things?But once enterprises find use cases they want to scale up into production, I think there will be real hesitations around trust. How do you handle the inherent bias in the training data? Or how those bias will show up in a reasoning agent? Or worse? I think the real question is what are the implications if a US based company takes a similar approach that DeepSeek didAI is becoming more powerful at the same time it's becoming more accessible. Amazing!Cheaper AI is better for all. It will lead to more education, more experimentation and thus more production use. Excited for this year!
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples JAN20 - JAN24
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: The year o
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples JAN20 - JAN24
Model distillation might be the most important shift happening in AI right now
Model distillation might be the most important shift happening in AI right now—and it’s reshaping the entire tech industry. It's increasingly becoming a MASSIVE topic. DeepSeek's R1 model released yesterday only reinforced thisModel distillation is a process where a smaller, simpler model (the "student") is trained to replicate the behavior and capabilities of a larger, more complex model (the "teacher"). This is achieved by using the teacher model's outputs (e.g., predictions or reasoning processes) as training data, allowing the student to inherit high performance with reduced size and computational demands.So why is this important? For large AI labs, capital and scale were moats. It took literally billons of dollars of compute and data to pre-train a state-of-the-art model. Let alone al
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples JAN13 - JAN17
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: December Inf
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples JAN13 - JAN17
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples JAN6 - JAN10
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Rising Rates
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples JAN6 - JAN10
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples between DEC30 and JAN3
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: The Rise of
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Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples between DEM16 and DEC20
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: The Fed Bomb
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples between DEM16 and DEC20
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: B
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: I
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples
What AMZN announced in their keynotes across
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is having their annual conference ReInvent this week, and for infra nerds like me, it's fun to dig in on all of the announcements! Here's a quick summary of what they announced in their keynotes across:1) Compute EC2 was a foundational product for AWS, and the OG compute instance. Today, AWS has ~850 compute instances types across 126 different families (for instance, they have ~14 instance types just for Nvidia GPUs). From 1 instance type to ~850 today! They also started building their own chips (Gravitron in 2018, Inferentia in 2019 and Trainium in 2022). They disclosed a cool stat - in 2019 AWS was a $35b business. Today - there is as much compute running on Gravitron in the AWS fleet than all of compute at AWS in 2019!This w
What AMZN announced in their keynotes across
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples this week
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Is Software Back?- Median so
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples this week
Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $CLOUDFLARE INC(0A3Z.UK)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Onestream Inc(OS)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: A Shift to Gr
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Onestream Inc(OS)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: AI and Ca
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples
Cloud Giants Update: AMZN, MSFT & GOOG
Cloud Giants Update: AWS ( $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ): $110B run rate growing 19% YoY (last Q grew 19%)Azure ( $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ): ~$66B run rate (estimate) growing 34% YoY (last Q grew 33% cc) $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $45B run rate growing 35% YoY (last Q grew 29%, neither are cc)ImageAggregate quarterly net new ARR by the hyperscalers Image $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS at a $110B run rate growing 19% Quarterly YoY growth trends below.ImageQuarterly net new ARR addedImagePretty incredible commentary from Microsoft yesterday:"we're excited that on
Cloud Giants Update: AMZN, MSFT & GOOG
MSFT Azure Quarterly YoY growth trends
Azure at a ~$66B run rate growing 34% constant currency (33% overall)They recently restated Azure, so some of the historical comparisons won't be apples to apples. PowerBI and EMS are no longer included in Azure which represented ~$20B of run rate last QQuarterly YoY growth trends below $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ImageNot exact figures, but rough estimates on Azure AI Services quarterly run rate below (12pts of growth this Q). They only disclose the % of growth to a full round number (no decimal point), so definitely not exactImageBelow is an estimate of net new ARR added over the last few quarters.ImageYoY growth trends in net new ARR per quarterImage
MSFT Azure Quarterly YoY growth trends
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples on OCT26
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $CLOUDFLARE INC(0A3Z.UK)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Onestream Inc(OS)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Mis
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples on OCT26
Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Onestream Inc(OS)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: From System
Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples
Palantir isn’t just a company - it’s a founder factory
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ isn’t just a company - it’s a founder factory. Palantir has produced a remarkable number of founders and technology leaders: from founding startups like Anduril (Brian Schimpf, Trae Stephens, and Matt Grimm) and Affirm (Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings) to leading consequential organizations such as OpenAI (Bob McGrew - Chief Research Officer) and Fox (Melody Hildebrandt - CTO).CobiBGantz and I dig into Palantir's unique culture and unpack the key ingredients that make it so:1. Uncompromising Talent Bar2. Mission Orientation3. Forward Deployed Engineering: Deliver Outcomes, Not Software4. Seek Truth: Solve Real Problems, Not Shiny Ones5. Define a Shared Enemy: United The Team6. Flat Structure: Direct Access To Lea
Palantir isn’t just a company - it’s a founder factory
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Onestream Inc(OS)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Budget Fl
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples
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