DavidMarlin
DavidMarlin
NYC Equity Trader | SF Quant HF Adviser | CEO of Marlin Capital | Not Investment Advice.
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Retail traders have been loading up during the recent Tech selloff. They have net bought $8.1B in equities this past week, the largest retail inflow in 2+ years. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image
Following consecutive years of >20%+ gains, Year 3 tends to be much more challenging.Only once have we seen 3 straight years with >20% returns. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image

We saw HEAVY dip buying during Tech rout

We saw HEAVY dip buying during yesterday’s Tech rout. - Biggest 1D inflow to $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ since 2021- Record inflows to $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ with 88% BUY orders- Record inflows to leveraged ETFs $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares(TNA)$ Imageill Semis close the valuation gap? $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
We saw HEAVY dip buying during Tech rout

AI Software Surge as QQQ Drops 3% After DeepSeek Breakthrough

With the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ sinking -3% following the DeepSeek breakthrough, we are seeing a clear shift towards AI Software today. CEOs surveyed by BofA prefer the below Back Office SaaS vendors for AI most: $Workday(WDAY)$ +3% $Asana, Inc.(ASAN)$ +9% $Alarm.com(ALRM)$ +2% $Zoom(ZM)$ +2% $Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$ +1% $BILL HOLDINGS INC(BILL)$ +1% $ServiceNow(NOW)$ +2% $Twilio(TWLO)$ +2%Image
AI Software Surge as QQQ Drops 3% After DeepSeek Breakthrough
4 of the Mag 7 stocks are set to report earnings next week. This is the most friendly positioning backdrop we have seen into Mag 7 prints in a long time.The group long/short ratio is currently in the 5th percentile vs. the past year. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Image

The 5 industries talking about AI the most

The 5 industries talking about AI the most:👇👇👇1.) Software2.) Tech Hardware 3.) Semis 4.) Commercial Services 5.) Media & Entertainment $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ ImageThis is what I posted earlier:Software, Semis, Energy, and Utilities are seen as the 4 biggest beneficiarie
The 5 industries talking about AI the most

A list of preferred AI Infrastructure vendors

A list of preferred AI Infrastructure vendors, according to CEOs surveyed by BofA: 👇👇👇 $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Big drop off… $Oracle(ORCL)$ $GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Dynatrace Holdings LLC(DT)$ $Confluent, Inc.(CFLT)$ Image
A list of preferred AI Infrastructure vendors
$Apple(AAPL)$ is on track for its worst month (-11%) in 2+ years. It’s lagging the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ by ~10% MTD, its biggest underperformance since Nov. 2018. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image
During a Fed cutting cycle, all market dips are buyable so long as the economy remains stable. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image

ETF shorts are up +24% over the last month

ETF shorts are up +24% over the last month, the fastest pace of shorting since the Feb ‘21 Meme Stock frenzy. Today’s CPI gap up is looking like the start of a larger short squeeze. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ ImageSmall Cap positioning among Fund Managers is currently at historic lows. Everyone is crowded into the Mega Caps. $E-mini Russell 2000 - main 2503(RTYmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF(IWO)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $I
ETF shorts are up +24% over the last month
Jensen just told us the future: Robots powered by AI.Physical AI will revolutionize our world on a massive scale. Citi forecasts 1.3B AI robots will be moving around us by 2035 and 4B by 2050. This a future trillion dollar + market. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image

$WGS - HUGE breakout in this Small Cap AI Genomics name

$GeneDx Holdings(WGS)$ - HUGE breakout in this Small Cap AI Genomics name. Approaching +200% gains here!Historically, Small caps outperform when the Fed starts to ease. If we are indeed entering a sustained Bull Run for Small caps, fortunes will be made owning the right stocks. Image13 of the last 14 January’s have seen Hedge Funds add gross leverage 👇👇This is the most bullish time of year for capital flows. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image
$WGS - HUGE breakout in this Small Cap AI Genomics name
Now is the time when Hedge Funds typically re-lever long. This has happened in 13 out of the last 14 January’s.We are starting from a net short base here in 2025, as HF exposure leans short out of the gate and underexposed to this rally. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image
Historically, the largest capital in the world gets deployed into the US equity market during the first few weeks of the year.January typically sees more inflows than any other month. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

NVDA is up >800% since the release of ChatGPT

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is up >800% since the release of ChatGPT.Yet, it’s STILL trading at a lower Fwd P/E today than it was when ChatGPT was released.The NVDA 8x rally has been driven entirely by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion.ImageThis is NOT what we saw during the Dot Com Bubble…Image
NVDA is up >800% since the release of ChatGPT
In the 2nd half of 2024, the R2K Tech Index outperformed Mega Caps.I am looking for this trend to continue in 2025 with EPS growth rates expected to narrow between Mega Caps and the field. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)
avatarDavidMarlin
2024-12-30
The $.SPX(.SPX)$ has only sustained a P/E multiple higher than the current mark (22.5x) twice in history:1.) The Dot Com Bubble2.) The Covid-QE Bubble $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image
avatarDavidMarlin
2024-12-28
Bitcoin has been moving in sync with the global M2 money supply (on a 10 week lag).The current negative divergence is pointing to $80k for Bitcoin. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ Image
avatarDavidMarlin
2024-12-22
Hedge Funds sold US equities at the fastest pace in 8+ months last week, driven heavily by short selling.This was the fastest pace of HF short selling in ~12 months. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Image

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