There’s a change in the air. The gloomy macro clouds of the past few years are starting to lift. Once weak and lagging parts of macro and markets are starting to stir, and a major macro theme I’ve been tracking is showing increasing signs of finally kicking full-swing into gear — today’s chart lays it out simply. Basically what we’re looking at here is a procession of policy pivots from big easing in 2020/21, panic tightening in 2022/23, and then back to easing in 2024/25. The result? Major monetary tailwinds are kicking-in right now. And we are seeing this having a clear positive impact on some of the key areas of the global economy that have previously been in deep stagnation: manufacturing, global trade, commodities, heavy industry. Real world, real growth, traditional cyclical parts of
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Global growth reacceleration is underway
Global growth reacceleration is underway
January Strength Signals a Broadening Bull Market
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Stocks closed up in January (equal-weight beat cap-weight). A positive January is a positive sign for the rest of the year. Seeing apparent rotation out of crypto into precious metals. Also seeing rotation from growth/tech to value/cyclicals. Signs are it’s a case of “bullish rotation” (broadening bull). Overall, we’ve managed to get off to a decent start to the year with the gains and bullish rotations of January. There are a few risk spots to keep tabs on (price action in crypto, tech/growth), but the relative strength in some of the more cyclical parts of the market raise the prospect of a bullish broadening… Happy New Month! the (market cap weighted) S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed up +
January Strength Signals a Broadening Bull Market
Macro Snapshot: Contrarian Bonds, Energy Upside, Japan in Focus
Hi there, Here's the topics I covered in my latest Weekly Macro Themes report: 1. Treasuries: Cheap valuations, very low allocations, and consensus bearish sentiment/positioning make for a contrarian bullish setup, but the tactical elements are lacking right now (monitoring the situation). 2. Inflation Risk: The risk of a second wave of inflation is credible, and therefore higher-for-longer risk remains a threat for nominal bonds (but may help TIPS[breakevens]). 3. Stocks vs Bonds: The longer-term/strategic charts are pointing to downside risk for stocks vs bonds, but the tactical elements are opposite (bullish technicals, benign macro). 4. Oil & Energy Stocks: Remain vigilant to upside risk in the oil price, and in particular for energy stocks (which are under-allocated, undervalued,
Macro Snapshot: Contrarian Bonds, Energy Upside, Japan in Focus
US Treasuries are unloved and undervalued
Is this the most hated asset class? The composite positioning indicator below seems to suggests so. Everyone hates bonds right now. And fair enough — there are several obvious reasons to hate them. Returns have been terrible, inflation risk is lurking around the corner, fiscal concerns are running high, and political/governance risk for the US is looking and feeling more like what you’d expect in emerging markets. But all of this is obvious and well known, which means it’s time to think. As the old Mark Twain quote goes, "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." When you take an objective and quantitative look at treasuries (I am referring to longer-term) a couple of things stand out. Valuations are cheap. Sentiment/allocations/positioning a
US Treasuries are unloved and undervalued
Risk Signals Rising, Bull Trend Intact
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Bears have the statistical edge in mid-term election years. 2. The global equity bull market is going strong (+getting stronger). 3. Implied correlations are low (a risk signal, similar to dot-com). 4. High valuations are supported by high expectations on profitability. 5. Energy sector equities are undervalued, underallocated, underestimated. Overall, there’s a fair amount of risk signals waving (e.g. seasonal headwinds, correlations, surging sentiment, lofty expectations), but likewise strong momentum, bullish rotation, and compelling fundamental narratives carrying things along. And amongst all this there’s some very interesting opportunities developing… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading lim
Risk Signals Rising, Bull Trend Intact
There’s room to run in China A-Shares’ triple-breakout
First they said it was uninvestable.Then it broke out —but they said it was still in a downtrend.Now it’s broken that downtrend line.And there are still several reasons to expect further upside.Here’s why I’m bullish on Chinese stocks:Strong Technicals: as alluded to, we’ve seen 3 key breakouts (through the 200-day average, through long-term overhead resistance, and through the down trendline joining the last two major peaks).Stock/Bond Ratio: we’ve also seen a key breakout in an indicator almost no-one else watches; the Chinese stock/bond ratio (important risk-on signal).Cheap Valuations: Chinese stocks are reasonable vs history, cheap vs peers, and cheap vs bonds (very high equity risk premium).Macro Tailwinds: we’ve seen a steady drift lower in interest rates, incremental stimulus measu
There’s room to run in China A-Shares’ triple-breakout
Weekly Macro Themes: Bullish EMs, China & Commodities
Hi there,Here's the topics I covered in my latest Weekly Macro Themes report:1. US Dollar: Remain bearish medium/longer-term given expensive valuations, fading yield support, longer-term technicals, but wary of short-term upsides (sentiment, positioning, seasonality, technicals).2. EM Equities: Remain bullish emerging market equities given supportive valuations, monetary tailwinds, improving earnings outlook, light allocations, and strong technicals.3. China Equities: Remain bullish Chinese stocks given strong technicals, supportive valuations, improving sentiment, and mild but gathering macro/monetary tailwinds.4. Commodities: Remain bullish commodities given cheap valuations, supply tailwinds, improving macro-fundamentals, light allocations, skeptical sentiment, strong technicals.5. Comm
Weekly Macro Themes: Bullish EMs, China & Commodities
Bullish Consensus Builds as Cyclicals Break Out and Value Lags
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:Sentiment is getting increasingly consensus bullish. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ & Credit Spreads are at complacent/confident levels.Transports, shipping stocks, EM, and metals are breaking out.Value is cheaper than usual vs history and vs growth stocks.Growth stocks are expensive vs history and vs value stocks.Overall, the mood remains distinctly bullish and increasingly so —and perhaps justifiably so as more evidence emerges in favor of a global growth reacceleration (and better performance from traditional cyclicals and risk-on assets). But with growth stocks already richly priced, and value still cheap, the next phase of the bull market might look a little unfamiliar to some…
Bullish Consensus Builds as Cyclicals Break Out and Value Lags
Charts of 2025 - Honorable Mentions
1. Clues of catch-up: this chart shows how far the US has diverged from global equity valuations, but also the nascent catch-up trade clearly underway.2. Peak performance: this one shows US stock market outperformance peaking vs DM and EM. All good trends come to an end, and all good cycles do what cycles do.3. Stocks vs Bonds over the Long-run: the rolling 10-year total return premium for stocks over and above that of bonds looks stretched vs long-term average, and it looks late in the cycle (and it does look cyclical).4. The big reset in Commercial Real Estate: in real inflation-adjusted terms, the CRE downturn has been substantial (-30%) and drawn-out (almost 4 years since peak to initial trough). Some might say that’s “enough” (…downturn done?).5. Tech capex crowd-out: successive waves
Charts of 2025 - Honorable Mentions
Emerging Markets at a Major Bullish Inflection Point
Learnings and conclusions from this session:Technicals: EM is at a bullish inflection point.Valuation: EM equity valuations are still cheap.Positioning: investor allocations to EM are still historically low.Macro: EM earnings are breaking out +strong monetary tailwinds.Sentiment: some signs of complacency, increasingly bullish sentiment.Overall, there’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that we are going through a major bullish inflection point for emerging market equities. The below set of charts looks at the key technical developments, macro-fundamentals, behavioral aspects, and weighs what could go right/wrong for EM equities from here…1. Emerging Inflection Point: an inflection point is underway in emerging market equities. Skeptics will say that it’s just another false dawn.
Emerging Markets at a Major Bullish Inflection Point
Chart of the Week - New High in New Highs
No that’s not a typo, we are literally seeing a new high in new highs.(47 countries just chalked up new highs)The chart below tracks the weekly count of the 70 countries we track that have closed at their highest point over the trailing 52-week window.The latest reading is the highest on record, and is comfortably higher than any reading we’ve seen in the post-2008 era.This is highly significant because the last time we got close to this number (46) was back during the early-2000’s global equity bull market where commodities were booming, emerging markets were making transformative progress, and global stocks were outperforming their US counterparts.So I would say this latest reading bodes particularly well for global vs US rotation.Indeed, probably the biggest development of 2025 was the
Chart of the Week - New High in New Highs
Early 2026 Strength Signals Positive Trend for S&P 500
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 11 January 2026This week: breakouts, good starts, fun with fund flows, animal spirits, shorts, long-term trends, generational changes, market cap movements, and energy sector in focus...Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is getting off to a good start in 2026.Statistically, that bodes well for the rest of the year.Rotation out of cash and into stocks is ramping up.Animal spirits are stirring (seeing rotation into cyclicals).Energy stocks are unloved, undervalued, and underestimated.Overall, there are a number of very interesting dynamics playing out in macro and markets as we gear-up into 2026. Trend and momentum are positive overall, traditional cyclicals are picking
Early 2026 Strength Signals Positive Trend for S&P 500
10 Charts to Watch in 2026
Now it’s time to stop looking backwards, and time to focus forward with a list of my top 10 charts to watch in 2026 (and beyond).These are the charts that I feel best capture the key macro/asset allocation issues relevant to investors right now (or that are likely to come onto the radar soon...) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$
10 Charts to Watch in 2026
Industrial Metals Break Out, Signaling Stronger Global Growth
$Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $Copper - main 2603(HGmain)$ Industrial Metals Breaking Out Happy New Year — and Happy New High in industrial metals!While this year has already gotten off to a bang on a number of fronts, in my view this may well be one of the most important price developments in markets so far.Given the influence of economic growth on industrial metal demand, arguably this is both a bullish market development by itself and a macro signal of a stronger global economy heading into 2026.Base Metals vs Monetary MetalsBase metals are starting to play catch-up vs monetary metals.As previously mused: “The economic log
Industrial Metals Break Out, Signaling Stronger Global Growth
SPX Strong 2025 Gains, Tougher Road Ahead
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained +16.4% in 2025 (+17.9% including dividends).(yet it lagged behind global stocks, which saw 30%+ returns).Investor sentiment is booming (yet economic confidence is glooming).Tech sector earnings are going vertical, non-tech is going sideways.Tech/mega cap valuations extreme expensive, non-tech/SMID cap cheap.Overall, it turned out to be a good year for US stocks and a great year for global stocks. As such, sentiment is riding high as most everyone is patting themselves on the back following the gains of 2025. Keeping and building on those gains in 2026 is going to take a balance of optimism and trend following, as well as realism around some of the risks bui
SPX Strong 2025 Gains, Tougher Road Ahead
Ten of My Favorite Charts of 2025
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Euphoria HeightsThe peak in this indicator at record highs helped forewarn of the April correction, but perhaps just as interesting is how it’s moved down again from a lower peak more recently. So an interesting one in retrospect, but also in reminding us not to get too complacent as risks build-up in the system.“sentiment has reached reco
Ten of My Favorite Charts of 2025
Macro Turns Supportive as Cycle Risks Bifurcate
Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:Global monetary policy settings have moved from headwind to substantial tailwinds as central banks step up precautionary easing into a window of contained inflation and macro downside risks.The big macro edge risks are recession (+deflation) on one edge vs reacceleration (+inflation resurgence) on the other edge.The US faces heightened risk of recession given confidence shocks of last year and deterioration in some labor market indicators, albeit with some offsetting factors e.g. fiscal stimulus, AI capex, rising asset prices.Meanwhile the rest of the world is looking better (Japan going strong, Europe and China turning up out of slowdown + stimulating).Among the asset classes most at risk of downside given (stretched) valuations and the stage of t
Macro Turns Supportive as Cycle Risks Bifurcate
A New Cyclical Bull Market in Commodities Is Taking Shape
Learnings and conclusions from this session…Valuation: commodities (asset class level) are cheap.Cycle: serious underinvestment in supply + cyclical demand upturn.Monetary: supporting the cyclical upturn is substantial monetary tailwinds.Sentiment: investor sentiment is lukewarm, allocations are historically low.Technicals: a new cyclical bull market is getting underway; still early.Overall, there’s growing evidence for a new cyclical bull market in commodities (following a cyclical bear market from 2022-24). This is likely to become a major macro theme in 2026 (not to mention a very interesting opportunity for investment in both commodity related stocks and commodity prices themselves). Check out the charts and datapoints below and let me know what you think in the comments.1. Follow the
A New Cyclical Bull Market in Commodities Is Taking Shape
Worst Charts of 2025
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $Global X Dow 30 Covered Call ETF(DJIA)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Downturn Didn’t TurnIt looked like the property downturn in China was turning aroun
Worst Charts of 2025
Best-of the Weekly ChartStorm 2025
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2603(YMmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. When it’s Obvious… This chart made the list because it illustrates a key ru
Best-of the Weekly ChartStorm 2025
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