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TSwin2022
2022-01-15
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The Nasdaq pullback comes as these low-valued tech stocks are turning on "gold-sucking" mode
TSwin2022
2022-01-13
Wow
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2022-01-06
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Nvidia VS Micron! The Battle Between Market Position and Quality Cheap Stocks
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17:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The Nasdaq pullback comes as these low-valued tech stocks are turning on \"gold-sucking\" mode","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2203715446","media":"智通财经网","summary":"近期美股市场高估值科技股暴跌，这一趋势似乎为低估值老牌科技股的“逆流而上”增添了新的驱动力。这些科技公司大部分拥有高额的利润，但股票交易价格相比于高估值科技股往往处于较低水平。PC市场两大巨头惠普和戴","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The recent plunge in highly valued tech stocks in the U.S. stock market seems to have added a new twist to the \"upstream\" of low-valued established tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>。 Most of these technology companies have high profits, but their stocks tend to trade at a low level compared to highly valued technology stocks.</p><p>The Two Giants of the PC Market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Technology is a rare winner among tech stocks this year, and the recent surge in U.S. bond yields has prompted investors to turn to cheaper companies with higher profit levels, while starting to sell off highly valued tech stocks that have outperformed the broader market during the pandemic.</p><p>For these two PC giants, PC shipments hit a new high in nearly 10 years in 2021 also played a role in boosting their share price against the trend. The latest statistics released by IDC yesterday showed that global personal computer (PC) shipments increased by 14.8% year-on-year to 349 million units in 2021, a new high since 2012.</p><p>\"We found better equity allocation targets in high-quality growth areas,\" said Kevin Caron, senior portfolio investment fund manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, which has $7 billion in assets under management. \"<b>Low-valued tech stocks are chosen because we can find companies with low debt levels, high profitability levels, and predictable businesses. \"</b></p><p>According to statistics,<b>The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down 5.05% this year, while PC giants HP and Dell are up 2.73% and 7.12%, respectively</b>The latest data shows that the expected P/E of both companies for the next 12 months is less than nine times the level, and both stocks easily outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index in the half-year period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03507a7540adce23b71c2e6190aafef\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Another Undervalued Tech Stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">Weirui</a>This year, it has risen 6.49%, far outpacing the Nasdaq 100.</b>On Thursday, Monness Crespi Hardt & Co upgraded the stock to Buy. While investors have been eyeing software companies with high growth trends, the investment agency wrote: \"We now believe the market will begin to focus more on the company's unique value proposition.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>\"Some value stock valuations are the lowest relative growth stocks since the tech bubble,\" David Kelly, chief global strategist at Asset Management, wrote in a note this week, adding that large tech stocks, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And high-profile companies like Alphabet, with a higher risk rating than it was three years ago, while potential returns may be lower. \"</p><p>Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein, advised investors to have a recent investing style towards undervalued technology stocks, writing: \"Of the 20% of stocks with the lowest valuations,<b>The 5-year earnings growth estimate is the highest expected level in more than 10 years.</b>Sacconaghi also wrote in the research note: \"These stocks underperformed in the second half of 2021, while the valuation gap between growth and value stocks showed a significant widening trend.\"</p><p>Sacconaghi believes that the most expensive companies in the industry will face more risks, but HP,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>And established technology companies such as Dell have a good risk profile and ample room for valuation uplift,<b>He upgraded his rating on the stocks to \"outperform\" from the previous \"flat\" rating</b>。 According to statistics, IBM has gained 0.82% slightly this year and still outperforms the Nasdaq 100.</p><p>Of course, there are still views on Wall Street in favor of highly valued tech stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Long-term yields are likely to rise only slightly, meaning there is limited risk of further corrections in growth stock valuations, strategists said Thursday. They believe there is still upside for growth stocks during the slowdown.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Nasdaq pullback comes as these low-valued tech stocks are turning on \"gold-sucking\" mode</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Nasdaq pullback comes as these low-valued tech stocks are turning on \"gold-sucking\" mode\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-14 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The recent plunge in highly valued tech stocks in the U.S. stock market seems to have added a new twist to the \"upstream\" of low-valued established tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>。 Most of these technology companies have high profits, but their stocks tend to trade at a low level compared to highly valued technology stocks.</p><p>The Two Giants of the PC Market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Technology is a rare winner among tech stocks this year, and the recent surge in U.S. bond yields has prompted investors to turn to cheaper companies with higher profit levels, while starting to sell off highly valued tech stocks that have outperformed the broader market during the pandemic.</p><p>For these two PC giants, PC shipments hit a new high in nearly 10 years in 2021 also played a role in boosting their share price against the trend. The latest statistics released by IDC yesterday showed that global personal computer (PC) shipments increased by 14.8% year-on-year to 349 million units in 2021, a new high since 2012.</p><p>\"We found better equity allocation targets in high-quality growth areas,\" said Kevin Caron, senior portfolio investment fund manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, which has $7 billion in assets under management. \"<b>Low-valued tech stocks are chosen because we can find companies with low debt levels, high profitability levels, and predictable businesses. \"</b></p><p>According to statistics,<b>The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down 5.05% this year, while PC giants HP and Dell are up 2.73% and 7.12%, respectively</b>The latest data shows that the expected P/E of both companies for the next 12 months is less than nine times the level, and both stocks easily outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index in the half-year period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03507a7540adce23b71c2e6190aafef\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Another Undervalued Tech Stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">Weirui</a>This year, it has risen 6.49%, far outpacing the Nasdaq 100.</b>On Thursday, Monness Crespi Hardt & Co upgraded the stock to Buy. While investors have been eyeing software companies with high growth trends, the investment agency wrote: \"We now believe the market will begin to focus more on the company's unique value proposition.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>\"Some value stock valuations are the lowest relative growth stocks since the tech bubble,\" David Kelly, chief global strategist at Asset Management, wrote in a note this week, adding that large tech stocks, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And high-profile companies like Alphabet, with a higher risk rating than it was three years ago, while potential returns may be lower. \"</p><p>Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein, advised investors to have a recent investing style towards undervalued technology stocks, writing: \"Of the 20% of stocks with the lowest valuations,<b>The 5-year earnings growth estimate is the highest expected level in more than 10 years.</b>Sacconaghi also wrote in the research note: \"These stocks underperformed in the second half of 2021, while the valuation gap between growth and value stocks showed a significant widening trend.\"</p><p>Sacconaghi believes that the most expensive companies in the industry will face more risks, but HP,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>And established technology companies such as Dell have a good risk profile and ample room for valuation uplift,<b>He upgraded his rating on the stocks to \"outperform\" from the previous \"flat\" rating</b>。 According to statistics, IBM has gained 0.82% slightly this year and still outperforms the Nasdaq 100.</p><p>Of course, there are still views on Wall Street in favor of highly valued tech stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Long-term yields are likely to rise only slightly, meaning there is limited risk of further corrections in growth stock valuations, strategists said Thursday. They believe there is still upside for growth stocks during the slowdown.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/641093.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/641093.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2203715446","content_text":"近期美股市场高估值科技股暴跌，这一趋势似乎为低估值老牌科技股的“逆流而上”增添了新的驱动力。这些科技公司大部分拥有高额的利润，但股票交易价格相比于高估值科技股往往处于较低水平。PC市场两大巨头惠普和戴尔科技是今年科技股中少有的赢家，近期美债收益率的飙升促使投资者纷纷转向价格更便宜、利润水平更高的企业，同时开始抛售那些在新冠疫情期间表现优于大盘的高估值科技股。对于这两大PC巨头来说，2021年PC出货量创近10年新高也对其股价逆势上涨起到推动作用，IDC昨日公布的最新统计数据显示，2021年全球个人电脑(PC)出货量同比增长了14.8%，达到3.49亿台，创2012年以来新高。“我们在高质量增长领域找到了更好的股票配置标的。”Washington Crossing Advisors高级组合投资基金经理Kevin Caron表示，该公司管理着70亿美元规模的资产。“之所以选择低估值科技股，是因为我们可以找到债务水平低、盈利水平高、业务具备可预测性的公司。”据统计，今年以来，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数跌幅达5.05%，与此同时，惠普和戴尔两家PC巨头分别上涨2.73%和7.12%，最新数据显示两家公司未来12个月预期市盈率均不到9倍水平，这两只股票在半年期都轻松跑赢纳斯达克100指数。另一只低估值科技股威睿今年以来涨幅达6.49%，远超纳斯达克100指数。周四，Monness Crespi Hardt & Co将该股评级上调为“买入”。虽然投资者一直关注高增长趋势的软件公司，但该投资机构写道：“我们现在相信，市场将开始更多地关注该公司独特的价值主张。”摩根大通资产管理首席全球策略师David Kelly本周在一份报告中写道：“部分价值股估值是自科技股泡沫以来相对成长股的最低水平。”他补充称，大型科技股，包括苹果、微软、亚马逊和Alphabet等知名公司，风险等级比三年前更高，而潜在回报率可能降低。”Bernstein分析师Toni Sacconaghi建议投资者近期投资风格偏向估值较低的科技股，他在报告中写道：“在估值最低的这20%股票之中，5年期的盈利增长预期为10多年来最高的预期水平。”Sacconaghi在研究报告中还写到：“这些股票在2021年下半年表现不佳，同时成长股和价值股之间的估值差呈显著扩大趋势。”Sacconaghi认为，行业之中估值最昂贵的公司将面临更多风险，但惠普、IBM 和戴尔这些老牌科技公司的风险状况良好且估值抬升空间足，他对这些股票的评级从之前的“与大盘持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”。据统计，IBM今年以来小幅上涨0.82%仍跑赢纳斯达克100指数。当然，华尔街仍有支持高估值科技股的观点。高盛策略师们周四表示，长期收益率可能只会小幅上升，这意味着成长型股票估值的进一步调整风险有限。他们认为，经济增长放缓期间成长股仍然有上行空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TQQQ":1,"03086":1,"QNETCN":1,".IXIC":1,"NQmain":1,"SQQQ":1,"QQQ":1,"TTTN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002470409,"gmtCreate":1642083849475,"gmtModify":1676533679113,"author":{"id":"4101713019432660","authorId":"4101713019432660","name":"TSwin2022","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101713019432660","idStr":"4101713019432660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002470409","repostId":"2203764202","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2203764202","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642082345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2203764202?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-13 21:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"In 2022, electric vehicles staged a wave of price increases?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2203764202","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"紧随特斯拉之后，小鹏汽车也涨价了。1月11日，小鹏汽车全系涨价。身为国内电动车“三剑客” - 小蔚理之一的小鹏汽车，它的涨价宣告在业内影响不小。过去的一年，新能源汽车开启了自己的元年，创下了一年近销售","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6036c893dd8bd8a3bc794f1088896a82\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>The price has also increased.</p><p>On January 11th, the price of XPeng Motors all series increased. As one of the \"Three Musketeers\" of domestic electric vehicles-Xiao Weili, XPeng Automobile, its price increase announcement has a big impact on the industry.</p><p>In the past year, new energy vehicles started their first year, setting a record high of nearly 3 million vehicles sold a year. Some car companies sold over 10,000 vehicles a month, which the industry called \"consumer awakening of new energy\";<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Chairman Li Bin said in Versailles at the end of the year, \"I don't know why so many people still go to buy fuel vehicles\", which recruited a wave of black.</p><p>At such a milestone node, the price of new energy vehicles will rise again. What impact will this have on hard-won consumer habits? Will the consumption of electric vehicles be sluggish in 2022, and will the new energy sector, which plummeted in the beginning of the year, stage last year's feast?</p><p><h2><b>Price hike storm</b></h2>On January 11, XPeng announced the latest subsidized prices for all models. The whole P7 series rose by 4,300 yuan to 5,900 yuan, and the whole P5 series and SUV model G3i series rose by 4,800 yuan to 5,400 yuan. XPeng only adjusted the price this time, and there were no changes in design and configuration.</p><p>Regarding this price adjustment, XPeng has already made a preview. After the announcement of the Notice of subsidy reduction at the end of the year, XPeng Automobile officially launched a limited-time insurance policy, saying that users can lock in the subsidy in 2021 if they place an order before 24: 00 on January 10, 2022, and the reduction will be borne by Xpeng Motors. From January 11, 2022, XPeng Motors will adjust its pricing system.</p><p>However, on the day of announcing the price increase, investors were still a little \"small emotion\". XPeng Motors once fell by more than 5% in intraday trading, closing down 4.46%.</p><p>XPeng is neither the only one nor the first in the price increase of new energy vehicles. In fact, at the end of last year, Tesla had taken the lead in raising prices twice, becoming the \"whistleblower\" of the collective price increase of new energy electric vehicles in 2022.</p><p>On November 24, 2021, Tesla raised the prices of both domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive versions by 4,752 yuan. Some Tesla salespeople said that this was due to the expected state subsidy to drop from 15,840 yuan to 11,088 yuan.</p><p>By December 31, 2021, Tesla raised prices again, with the rear-wheel drive versions of the Model 3 and Model Y increasing by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively. According to officials, this time was caused by many influences such as subsidy decline and raw material price increase.</p><p>Some friends have also made similar decisions in the front and back of the price adjustment of Tesla and XPeng vehicles.</p><p>Some U models of Nezha Automobile will be raised by 3,000-5,000 yuan, and some V models of Nezha will be raised by 2,000 yuan; The price of GAC AION LX increased by 4,000 yuan, and the new AION S Plus on the market increased by more than 7,000 yuan compared with the 2021 model;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>From February 1st, the rights and interests of the first owner's lifetime warranty of three electricity and extended range system will be cancelled and adjusted to 8 years or 120,000 kilometers; FAW-Volkswagen announced that its new energy models will increase in price from New Year's Day in 2020, and the prices of two pure electric models, ID.6 CROZZ and ID.4 CROZZ, will increase by 5,400 yuan. In this way, the collective price increase of new energy vehicles has become a general trend after the beginning of the year, and the initial motivation is the decline of new energy subsidies. On the last day of 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Adjustment of the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Policy, which clarified that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021.</p><p>According to the latest subsidy scheme, from January 1, 2022, there will be no subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a cruising range of less than 300 kilometers; The subsidy for pure electric models with a distance of 300-400 kilometers decreased by 3,900 yuan year-on-year; The subsidy for pure electric models greater than/equal to 400 kilometers decreased by 5,400 yuan year-on-year; Subsidies for plug-in hybrid models decreased by 2,000 yuan year-on-year.</p><p>In addition to the decline of subsidies, the supply of \"brain\"-chip and \"heart\"-battery of the car body is temporarily unable to match the rhythm of enterprise scale expansion. The continuous rise and shortage of upstream raw materials also put pressure on new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>Affected by the epidemic and natural disasters, chip manufacturers concentrated in the United States, Japan and other places have limited production capacity and reduced shipments. At present, most of China's high-end chips rely on imports, and the \"chip shortage\" clamps down the delivery progress of car enterprises. The supply and demand are unbalanced, the volume of goods is scarce, and the price naturally can't go down.</p><p>The raw materials of lithium batteries, which account for 30-40% of the cost of the whole vehicle, are turning up almost every day, the prices of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other raw materials are rising, and the prices of cathode materials and electrolyte of power batteries continue to rise.</p><p>According to the calculation of Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), the actual cost increase of battery enterprises is about 20%-25%, and the purchase price of batteries finally transmitted to the OEM end may actually increase by about 10%-20%, further attacking the profits of car enterprises, and the final price increase seems to be a last resort.</p><p>In addition, from the perspective of the operation of car companies, new energy car companies that are in the stage of \"fighting the world\" seem to be behind the scenery, but they have not yet gotten rid of their losses, and increasing revenue without increasing profits is still the main tone.</p><p>According to the third quarterly report of 2021, Nio had a revenue of 1.836.8 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.521.7 billion yuan in the third quarter; XPeng Automobile's revenue in the third quarter reached 5.72 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 1.59 billion yuan; Li Auto had a revenue of 7.78 billion yuan and a net loss of 21.5 million yuan in the third quarter.</p><p>This means that when the boots with reduced subsidies land in 2022, the profit pressure of car companies will be released in a short time, and some costs will be passed on to consumption.</p><p><h2><b>Future promising?</b></h2>In the year before this wave of price increases, new energy vehicles can be said to be proud and high morale.</p><p>According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in 2021, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 2.989 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 169.1%, and the market penetration rate was 14.8%. You know, this figure was only 5% the year before.</p><p>However, in just 10 days at the beginning of 2022, the new energy sector experienced a \"frightening moment\". The stock prices of a number of related companies continued to fall. During the year, the stock price was \"evergreen\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The market value evaporated by 8.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The decline reached 10.8%, and the cumulative evaporated market value of A-share new energy vehicle sector exceeded 500 billion yuan.</p><p>The market seems to have cooled off its frenetic enthusiasm and begun to think seriously about the future of new energy vehicles. Insiders pointed out that the new energy sector plummeted, partly because the investment market has long been singing the stock prices of leading companies in the industry, which has overdrawn their future performance and caused their valuation to deviate. The high correction of stock prices is also a sign that investors tend to be rational.</p><p>In addition, subsidies have declined, car companies have raised prices, and investors are worried that rising prices will stimulate consumers, thus affecting the original rapid development momentum.</p><p>In fact, the market's understanding of subsidy decline is not comprehensive. On January 11th, the Passenger Car Association reported that although the subsidy standard for bicycles has been reduced, the upper limit of 2 million vehicles has been lifted for the total number of subsidizable vehicles, which is actually a positive.</p><p>Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, said that the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles has actually been more liberalized, which has brought huge incremental space. The subsidy amount has increased by at least 10 billion yuan, which has an obvious pulling effect on the auto market.</p><p>The Passenger Car Association predicts that the cumulative sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million units in 2022, with a market penetration rate of around 22%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of energy passenger vehicles will exceed 5.5 million units, and the market penetration rate will reach about 25%.</p><p>From the market perspective, some car companies choose to bear the pressure of falling subsidies and rising materials, and do not raise prices; In addition, some car companies have launched strategies such as time-limited price insurance, which has set off a wave of purchases, and even some stores have been \"robbed\" of their exhibition cars.</p><p>The industry believes that after several years of market cultivation of new energy vehicles, consumer awareness has become mature, and they will not give up their original plan to buy new energy vehicles just because of the reduction of subsidies.</p><p>The biggest change and uncertainty comes from the competitive landscape of car companies. The adjustment of subsidy policy means that manufacturers should attract consumers with excellent products instead of prices and subsidies, which is a switch from subsidy-driven to market-driven mode, which will inject new vitality into the whole industry.</p><p>Under the law of survival of the fittest, car companies will be forced to come up with more technology, higher quality and faster iterative products to cope with market competition, and those who can't do it will fall.</p><p>This also means that at the beginning of the new year, the vibration of the new energy sector is a signal of the innovation of the whole industrial model, and a brand-new knockout game is opened. This is what Li Bin, He Xiaopeng and other industry bosses said, \"It can never be said that the most dangerous time has passed\".</p><p>Everything is just beginning.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In 2022, electric vehicles staged a wave of price increases?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn 2022, electric vehicles staged a wave of price increases?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-13 21:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6036c893dd8bd8a3bc794f1088896a82\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>The price has also increased.</p><p>On January 11th, the price of XPeng Motors all series increased. As one of the \"Three Musketeers\" of domestic electric vehicles-Xiao Weili, XPeng Automobile, its price increase announcement has a big impact on the industry.</p><p>In the past year, new energy vehicles started their first year, setting a record high of nearly 3 million vehicles sold a year. Some car companies sold over 10,000 vehicles a month, which the industry called \"consumer awakening of new energy\";<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Chairman Li Bin said in Versailles at the end of the year, \"I don't know why so many people still go to buy fuel vehicles\", which recruited a wave of black.</p><p>At such a milestone node, the price of new energy vehicles will rise again. What impact will this have on hard-won consumer habits? Will the consumption of electric vehicles be sluggish in 2022, and will the new energy sector, which plummeted in the beginning of the year, stage last year's feast?</p><p><h2><b>Price hike storm</b></h2>On January 11, XPeng announced the latest subsidized prices for all models. The whole P7 series rose by 4,300 yuan to 5,900 yuan, and the whole P5 series and SUV model G3i series rose by 4,800 yuan to 5,400 yuan. XPeng only adjusted the price this time, and there were no changes in design and configuration.</p><p>Regarding this price adjustment, XPeng has already made a preview. After the announcement of the Notice of subsidy reduction at the end of the year, XPeng Automobile officially launched a limited-time insurance policy, saying that users can lock in the subsidy in 2021 if they place an order before 24: 00 on January 10, 2022, and the reduction will be borne by Xpeng Motors. From January 11, 2022, XPeng Motors will adjust its pricing system.</p><p>However, on the day of announcing the price increase, investors were still a little \"small emotion\". XPeng Motors once fell by more than 5% in intraday trading, closing down 4.46%.</p><p>XPeng is neither the only one nor the first in the price increase of new energy vehicles. In fact, at the end of last year, Tesla had taken the lead in raising prices twice, becoming the \"whistleblower\" of the collective price increase of new energy electric vehicles in 2022.</p><p>On November 24, 2021, Tesla raised the prices of both domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive versions by 4,752 yuan. Some Tesla salespeople said that this was due to the expected state subsidy to drop from 15,840 yuan to 11,088 yuan.</p><p>By December 31, 2021, Tesla raised prices again, with the rear-wheel drive versions of the Model 3 and Model Y increasing by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively. According to officials, this time was caused by many influences such as subsidy decline and raw material price increase.</p><p>Some friends have also made similar decisions in the front and back of the price adjustment of Tesla and XPeng vehicles.</p><p>Some U models of Nezha Automobile will be raised by 3,000-5,000 yuan, and some V models of Nezha will be raised by 2,000 yuan; The price of GAC AION LX increased by 4,000 yuan, and the new AION S Plus on the market increased by more than 7,000 yuan compared with the 2021 model;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>From February 1st, the rights and interests of the first owner's lifetime warranty of three electricity and extended range system will be cancelled and adjusted to 8 years or 120,000 kilometers; FAW-Volkswagen announced that its new energy models will increase in price from New Year's Day in 2020, and the prices of two pure electric models, ID.6 CROZZ and ID.4 CROZZ, will increase by 5,400 yuan. In this way, the collective price increase of new energy vehicles has become a general trend after the beginning of the year, and the initial motivation is the decline of new energy subsidies. On the last day of 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Adjustment of the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Policy, which clarified that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021.</p><p>According to the latest subsidy scheme, from January 1, 2022, there will be no subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a cruising range of less than 300 kilometers; The subsidy for pure electric models with a distance of 300-400 kilometers decreased by 3,900 yuan year-on-year; The subsidy for pure electric models greater than/equal to 400 kilometers decreased by 5,400 yuan year-on-year; Subsidies for plug-in hybrid models decreased by 2,000 yuan year-on-year.</p><p>In addition to the decline of subsidies, the supply of \"brain\"-chip and \"heart\"-battery of the car body is temporarily unable to match the rhythm of enterprise scale expansion. The continuous rise and shortage of upstream raw materials also put pressure on new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>Affected by the epidemic and natural disasters, chip manufacturers concentrated in the United States, Japan and other places have limited production capacity and reduced shipments. At present, most of China's high-end chips rely on imports, and the \"chip shortage\" clamps down the delivery progress of car enterprises. The supply and demand are unbalanced, the volume of goods is scarce, and the price naturally can't go down.</p><p>The raw materials of lithium batteries, which account for 30-40% of the cost of the whole vehicle, are turning up almost every day, the prices of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other raw materials are rising, and the prices of cathode materials and electrolyte of power batteries continue to rise.</p><p>According to the calculation of Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), the actual cost increase of battery enterprises is about 20%-25%, and the purchase price of batteries finally transmitted to the OEM end may actually increase by about 10%-20%, further attacking the profits of car enterprises, and the final price increase seems to be a last resort.</p><p>In addition, from the perspective of the operation of car companies, new energy car companies that are in the stage of \"fighting the world\" seem to be behind the scenery, but they have not yet gotten rid of their losses, and increasing revenue without increasing profits is still the main tone.</p><p>According to the third quarterly report of 2021, Nio had a revenue of 1.836.8 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.521.7 billion yuan in the third quarter; XPeng Automobile's revenue in the third quarter reached 5.72 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 1.59 billion yuan; Li Auto had a revenue of 7.78 billion yuan and a net loss of 21.5 million yuan in the third quarter.</p><p>This means that when the boots with reduced subsidies land in 2022, the profit pressure of car companies will be released in a short time, and some costs will be passed on to consumption.</p><p><h2><b>Future promising?</b></h2>In the year before this wave of price increases, new energy vehicles can be said to be proud and high morale.</p><p>According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in 2021, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 2.989 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 169.1%, and the market penetration rate was 14.8%. You know, this figure was only 5% the year before.</p><p>However, in just 10 days at the beginning of 2022, the new energy sector experienced a \"frightening moment\". The stock prices of a number of related companies continued to fall. During the year, the stock price was \"evergreen\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The market value evaporated by 8.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The decline reached 10.8%, and the cumulative evaporated market value of A-share new energy vehicle sector exceeded 500 billion yuan.</p><p>The market seems to have cooled off its frenetic enthusiasm and begun to think seriously about the future of new energy vehicles. Insiders pointed out that the new energy sector plummeted, partly because the investment market has long been singing the stock prices of leading companies in the industry, which has overdrawn their future performance and caused their valuation to deviate. The high correction of stock prices is also a sign that investors tend to be rational.</p><p>In addition, subsidies have declined, car companies have raised prices, and investors are worried that rising prices will stimulate consumers, thus affecting the original rapid development momentum.</p><p>In fact, the market's understanding of subsidy decline is not comprehensive. On January 11th, the Passenger Car Association reported that although the subsidy standard for bicycles has been reduced, the upper limit of 2 million vehicles has been lifted for the total number of subsidizable vehicles, which is actually a positive.</p><p>Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, said that the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles has actually been more liberalized, which has brought huge incremental space. The subsidy amount has increased by at least 10 billion yuan, which has an obvious pulling effect on the auto market.</p><p>The Passenger Car Association predicts that the cumulative sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million units in 2022, with a market penetration rate of around 22%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of energy passenger vehicles will exceed 5.5 million units, and the market penetration rate will reach about 25%.</p><p>From the market perspective, some car companies choose to bear the pressure of falling subsidies and rising materials, and do not raise prices; In addition, some car companies have launched strategies such as time-limited price insurance, which has set off a wave of purchases, and even some stores have been \"robbed\" of their exhibition cars.</p><p>The industry believes that after several years of market cultivation of new energy vehicles, consumer awareness has become mature, and they will not give up their original plan to buy new energy vehicles just because of the reduction of subsidies.</p><p>The biggest change and uncertainty comes from the competitive landscape of car companies. The adjustment of subsidy policy means that manufacturers should attract consumers with excellent products instead of prices and subsidies, which is a switch from subsidy-driven to market-driven mode, which will inject new vitality into the whole industry.</p><p>Under the law of survival of the fittest, car companies will be forced to come up with more technology, higher quality and faster iterative products to cope with market competition, and those who can't do it will fall.</p><p>This also means that at the beginning of the new year, the vibration of the new energy sector is a signal of the innovation of the whole industrial model, and a brand-new knockout game is opened. This is what Li Bin, He Xiaopeng and other industry bosses said, \"It can never be said that the most dangerous time has passed\".</p><p>Everything is just beginning.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3649653\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6036c893dd8bd8a3bc794f1088896a82","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LI":"理想汽车","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1587":"次新股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4123":"调查和咨询服务","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1539":"汽车股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3649653","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2203764202","content_text":"紧随特斯拉之后，小鹏汽车也涨价了。1月11日，小鹏汽车全系涨价。身为国内电动车“三剑客” - 小蔚理之一的小鹏汽车，它的涨价宣告在业内影响不小。过去的一年，新能源汽车开启了自己的元年，创下了一年近销售300万辆的历史新高，部分车企月销量过万，业内人士将之称为“新能源的消费者觉醒”；蔚来董事长李斌在年末凡尔赛地说，“我不知道为什么那么多人还去买燃油车”，招了一波黑。就在这样里程碑式的节点上，新能源车又要涨价了，这对来之不易的消费者习惯将会产生怎样的影响，2022年电动车消费会不会萎靡，开年大跌的新能源板块，还会不会上演去年的盛宴？涨价风波1月11日，小鹏汽车公布了全系车型最新补贴后的价格。 P7 全系上涨 4300 元~ 5900 元， P5 全系及 SUV 车型 G3i 全系上涨 4800 元~ 5400 元。小鹏此次仅针对价格进行调整，设计、配置等方面均没有变化。关于这次调价，小鹏早已做了预告。在年底补贴退坡的《通知》公布后，小鹏汽车官方就推出了限时保价政策，称用户在 2022 年 1 月 10 日 24 点前下订，即可锁定 2021 年的补贴，退坡部分由小鹏汽车承担。2022 年 1 月 11 日起，小鹏汽车将调整价格体系。不过宣布涨价当天，投资者们还是有点“小情绪” ，小鹏汽车盘中一度跌超5%，收跌4.46%。新能源汽车涨价，小鹏既不是唯一的一家也不是第一家。其实就在去年年底，特斯拉就已经率先两次涨价，成为2022年新能源电动车集体涨价的“吹哨人”。2021 年 11 月 24 日，特斯拉将国产 Model 3 和 Model Y 的后轮驱动版车型售价均上调 4752 元，有特斯拉销售人员称，这是预期国家补贴将从 15840 元降至 11088 元所致。到了2021 年 12 月 31 日，特斯拉再次上调售价，Model 3 和 Model Y 的后轮驱动版车型分别上涨 1 万元和 2.1 万元。官方称，这次是受补贴退坡以及原材料涨价等多方影响所致。在特斯拉、小鹏汽车调价的前后脚，部分友商也作出了类似的决定。哪吒汽车的 U 部分车型上调 3000-5000 元，哪吒 V 部分车型上调 2000 元；广汽埃安 LX 涨价 4000 元，上市新款 AION S Plus 较 2021 款涨幅在 7000 元以上；理想汽车将于2 月 1 日起，取消首任车主三电和增程系统终生质保的权益，调整为 8 年或 12 万公里；一汽大众宣布自家新能源车型自2020年元旦起涨价，ID.6 CROZZ 和 ID.4 CROZZ 两款纯电车型售价均将上涨 5400 元。如此看来，新能源汽车的集体涨价已成开年后的大趋势，初始动因是新能源补贴退坡。2021 年最后一天，财政部、工信部、科技部、发改委等四部委联合发布的对新能源汽车补贴政策调整的《通知》，其中明确了 2022 年新能源汽车补贴标准在 2021 年基础上退坡 30％。根据最新补贴方案，2022 年 1 月 1 日起，纯电动乘用车续航里程在 300 公里以下的无补贴；300-400 公里的纯电动车型补贴同比减少 3900 元；大于/等于 400 公里的纯电动车型补贴同比减少 5400 元；插电式混合动力车型补贴同比减少 2000 元。除了补贴的下滑，车身的“大脑”-芯片和“心脏“-电池的供应都暂时无法匹配企业规模扩展的节奏，上游原材料的持续上涨与短缺，也向新能源车企施加压力。受疫情、自然灾害的影响，集中于美、日等地的芯片制造商产能受限出货缩减，而我国目前高端芯片大多依赖进口，“芯片荒”钳制着车企交付的进度，供需不平衡、货量稀少，价格自然下不来。占整车成本3-4成的锂电池，其原料几乎每天一个价地往上翻，锂、镍、钴等原材料价格上涨，动力电池正极材料、电解液等价格都在持续走高。根据高工产研锂电研究所（GGII）测算，电池企业实际增加的成本约为20%-25%，最终传导到整车厂端电池的采购价格实际可能增加约10%-20%，进一步向车企的利润发难，最终涨价似乎成为不得已之举。此外，从车企的经营来看，正处于“打天下”阶段的新能源车企，看似风光其实背后仍未摆脱亏损，增收不增利仍是主基调。2021年的三季报显示，蔚来第三季度营收18.368亿元，净亏损25.217亿元；小鹏汽车第三季度营收达到57.2亿元，净利润亏损15.9亿元；理想汽车三季度营收77.8亿元，净亏损为2150万元。这意味着，当2022年补贴下调的靴子落地时，短时间内车企的利润压力要释放，会有一部分成本要转嫁于消费身上。未来可期？在这波涨价潮之前的一年，新能源汽车可以说是扬眉吐气、士气高涨。乘联会数据显示，2021全年，国内新能源乘用车零售量为298.9万辆，同比增长169.1%，市场渗透率为14.8%。要知道，这一数字在前年仅为5%。但2022开年短短10几天，新能源板块经历了“惊魂时刻”。多家相关公司的股价持续下挫，年内，股价“常青树”宁德时代市值蒸发8.7%，比亚迪跌幅达到10.8%，A股新能源汽车板块累计蒸发市值超5000亿元。市场似乎从狂热的激情中冷却下来，开始认真思考新能源汽车的未来。业内人士指出，新能源板块暴跌，一部分原因是投资市场长期唱多行业龙头公司的股价，透支了未来业绩致使其估值发生偏离，股价的高位回调也是投资者趋于理性的表现。另外，补贴退坡，车企提价，投资者担忧价格上涨会刺激到消费者，进而影响原本高歌猛进的发展势头。实际上，市场对补贴退坡的理解并不全面。1月11日，乘联会报告指出，针对单车的补贴标准虽然减少了，但对可补贴车的总量取消了200万辆上限的限制，其实是个利好。乘联会秘书长崔东树表示，新能源车补贴政策实际上更放开了，带来了巨大的增量空间，补贴金额至少增加了 100 亿以，对车市的拉动效果明显。乘联会预测，2022年国内新能源汽车累计销量有望突破600万辆，市场渗透率在22%左右。其中，能源乘用车累计销量将超过550万辆，市场渗透率达到25%左右。从市场层面来看，一些车企选择自我承担补贴下滑和材料上涨的压力，不涨价；另外一些车企推出限时保价等策略，反而掀起了一波购买潮，甚至有的门店连展车都被“抢走”。业内人士认为，在经过了好几年新能源汽车的市场培育之后，消费者意识趋于成熟，不会仅仅因为补贴减少，而放弃原本想要购买新能源汽车的计划。最大的变化和不确定性，来自车企的竞争格局。补贴政策调整，意味着厂商要以过硬的产品而非价格和补贴去吸引消费者，是从补贴驱动向市场驱动模式的切换，这将为整个产业注入新活力。在优胜劣汰的法则下，会倒逼车企拿出更多技术、更高质量、更快迭代的产品应对市场竞争，不行的人会倒下。这也意味着，新年伊始，新能源板块的震动，是整个产业模式革新的信号，拉开的是全新的淘汰赛， 这也是李斌、何小鹏等业内大佬所说的，“永远都不能说最危险的时候已经过去了”。一切都才刚刚开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008804632,"gmtCreate":1641399723334,"gmtModify":1676533610823,"author":{"id":"4101713019432660","authorId":"4101713019432660","name":"TSwin2022","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101713019432660","idStr":"4101713019432660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008804632","repostId":"1141749236","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141749236","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1641384778,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141749236?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-05 20:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nvidia VS Micron! The Battle Between Market Position and Quality Cheap Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141749236","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"作为半导体行业巨头的英伟达和美光，都受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。一方面，从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资产运营模式和市场领导地位使其更受投资者青睐。另一方面，美光的股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As a giant in the semiconductor industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>, all benefiting from strong growth trends in data centers, autonomous vehicles, and other high-tech sectors. On the one hand, from a purely business standpoint, Nvidia's asset-light operating model and market leadership make it more popular with investors. Micron's shares, on the other hand, are relatively cheaper and therefore perhaps a better investment option.</p><p>The bull market of the past few years has propelled Nvidia to become by far the most valuable semiconductor company. It is the eighth-largest company in the world by market capitalization, compared with only the other semiconductor companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>(TSM.US) enters the top 25 of the market cap list.</p><p>In fact, Nvidia has been playing a game of Picks and Shovels (in the past, in the gold rush, most gold diggers who wanted to become mine owners failed, while those who sold Picks, Shovels, tents and jeans to gold diggers made a fortune, which can be understood as investing in companies not in this industry that indirectly benefited from the high-tech industry boom). Nvidia's GPUs (graphics processing units) are becoming increasingly important in areas such as data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and self-driving cars, plus<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>(FB.US) and others are ramping up their investments in these areas, and as a result, widespread demand has led to a shortage of Nvidia's products and pushed the company's stock higher.</p><p>However, Nvidia's P/E, which fell to 35 times in 2020, is now close to 100 times, a much higher P/E than its semiconductor peers. It is understood that Micron has a market capitalization of $104 billion and a P/E of 14 times. In contrast, Micron's revenue actually exceeds that of Nvidia. Over the past 12 months, Micron's revenue reached $27.7 billion, compared to Nvidia's revenue of $24.3 billion.<b>If Micron had a P/E like Nvidia, its market value would reach $713 billion, which is only 5.6% smaller than Nvidia's current market value.</b></p><p>From a business point of view, these two companies don't have much similar business except that they both design semiconductor products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51eac4e04708d3cd9a6b44af9a9ec924\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GPU Market Share</p><p>Nvidia is focused on its GPU offerings, with the company holding an 83% GPU market share as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1038251c06a588aff3da5fd4afc4c9a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NAND Equipment Market Share</p><p>Micron, on the other hand, ranks third in DRAM market share, while it only ranks fifth in NAND market share. Unlike Nvidia, Micron seems to have no obvious advantages in intellectual property except designing chips.</p><p>It is understood that DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs focus on performing large amounts of operations quickly, memory chips focus on storing large amounts of information. The memory chip is used with the GPU, so it does not constitute a direct competition with the GPU. Micron has partnered with Nvidia on various products that will benefit both companies. In addition, both companies have highlighted conducting research in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G, IoT, gaming, industry, blockchain, metaverse, and automotive to drive the company's future growth.</p><p><b>Future growth expectations for Nvidia</b></p><p>Based on current analyst forecasts for Nvidia's revenue and profit over the next two years, its earnings will grow at a CAGR of 16-18%. From 2005 to 2020, Nvidia's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12%. If the historical performance in 2021 is taken into account, its CAGR will reach 14%. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect the company's top line growth rate to continue to improve relative to historical levels against the backdrop of forecasts that economic growth will improve slightly. This level of growth is well above the industry average.</p><p>It is understood that since 2008,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>(AVGO.US), as the only large semiconductor company with a CAGR of more than 15% in revenue, is the first to break that threshold through acquisitions. Peter Lynch, a prominent investor, was skeptical of any company growing more than 20pc because it would be difficult to sustain that growth. The semiconductor industry is no exception, which also proves the correctness of this theory. Nvidia's P/E in 2021 was nearly 100x, and the company's top line base was the largest ever, so it was struggling to sustain its high top line growth trend.</p><p>However, Nvidia's CAGR would have to be well above 18% to justify its valuation, as an 18% growth rate would put its PEG metric (P/E Relative Earnings Growth Ratio) above 5. And if Nvidia can achieve its expected growth, its expected P/E will be 49 times. It is also worth noting that the revenue of the semiconductor business is quite cyclical, so this is not the first time that Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In both 2008 and 2018, Nvidia's revenue growth reached 34%, but the latter year of those two years, its growth rates plummeted to-16% and 21%, respectively.</p><p>While Nvidia, on the other hand, also benefited from the cryptocurrency boom in 2021. But the company has said that it is still unknown how much demand for cryptocurrencies will affect revenue. It is understood that its products have been used to mine Bitcoin.</p><p>Although it has not been proven that Bitcoin will go lower in 2022. But other altcoins, including Ethereum, are gradually grabbing Bitcoin its share of the cryptocurrency market. And because other altcoins don't need too much computing power, they don't need to use Nvidia's GPU products too much. But Micron is not affected by altcoins and may get a piece of it, mainly because miners need a lot of electricity and a lot of memory.</p><p>More perception in the market right now is that Nvidia is benefiting from a GPU shortage related to its mining business, which could negatively affect Nvidia's stock if there is a price crash in Bitcoin.</p><p>Nvidia certainly won't focus solely on the business of cryptocurrency, as this will have an adverse effect on the company. In fact, the company's business revenue in other areas is also growing rapidly:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3258fbc77bfd538b9cf2be0f904e559\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Revenue Growth Rate in Other Areas</p><p>Again, there is significant growth potential in each of these areas, which could be a factor driving Nvidia to continue to grow its top line rapidly in the coming years.</p><p><b>Micron's Future Growth Expectations</b></p><p>In terms of growth, Micron is no slouch.</p><p>From 2005 to 2020, the company's revenue grew at a CAGR of 10% (compared to Nvidia's CAGR of 12%). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest-growing sub-field of semiconductors for the past 20 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa7a1d06183dd603600dc2a68240250\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Micron's Revenue Growth Rate by Segment</p><p>Micron divides its segments slightly differently than Nvidia, but many of its segments are also growing rapidly. Separately, the company is also highlighting many businesses that can drive the company's revenue growth. In particular, this year the company expects its revenue growth rate on the Internet of Things business to reach 80%, and the company also expects its automotive-related business revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 40-50% over the next three years.</p><p>Micron's projected EPS growth is premised on top line growth of 16% based on its forecast, which appears to be an achievable target as that growth rate is only slightly above its historical top line growth rate. Ideally, an investment should be fairly valued based on reasonable earnings expectations, so that a company's valuation does not significantly exceed expectations and has a better chance of a strong return.</p><p>Another reason why there are arguments that Micron's growth expectations are achievable is that they are in a supply and demand cycle that favors the company. We can learn that although the revenue of its peer-Nvidia is breaking records every quarter, Micron's current annual revenue is still lower than that of 2018. This is an industry-wide problem. As a competitor, SK Hynix's revenue also reached its peak in 2018. But given the strong growth trends underpinning the sector, and the various developments that have unfolded since 2018, investors have reason to imagine another record top line in the memory sector.</p><p>In addition, 75% of Micron's revenue comes from long-term agreements that work closely with customers, which is a significant improvement from 10% five years ago. In addition, in the era of enterprise integration in the memory industry, it will bring more bargaining power and less risk of oversupply to companies, and Micron can get the support of the federal government as part of the CHIPS Act (the bill to create beneficial incentives for chip production), which also seems to focus more on chip manufacturing than design (so it is unlikely to benefit Nvidia).</p><p>Recently, Micron began distributing Dividend, indicating management's confidence in their continued cash flow.</p><p><b>Risk</b></p><p>What needs to be explained by Tebi is that although Micron is likely to outperform Nvidia in the next few years, this does not mean that Nvidia's stock price will fall. A big company like Nvidia can maintain a high P/E for a long time, so shorting Nvidia is not a wise choice.</p><p>Similarly, Micron may ultimately underperform Nvidia for several reasons.</p><p>First, Micron's position in the market is not as strong as Nvidia's. While Micron's market position will improve, even so, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In comparison, although it is a market leader in low-power DRAM products, its market share is still relatively small. This may put some pressure on Micron to drive innovation through research and development or exercising pricing power.</p><p>On the other hand, Nvidia owns a large number of intellectual property rights, is the largest GPU manufacturer in the world, and it is also the manufacturer with the largest R&D budget. Both companies have benefited from multiple expansions. The difference is that Micron's current P/E is 14 times, which is a reasonable multiple for a cyclical company with revenue growth of more than 10%. Nvidia's current P/E of 93 times is also a reasonable multiple for a high-quality company that is expected to achieve revenue growth of more than 30% in the next few years. But both companies are likely to be impacted by market bad movements in the future, but Micron may not benefit as much from the P/E correction as Nvidia.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Micron and Nvidia are both good semiconductor companies, but Nvidia may be a better company in terms of market position and profit margins. If Nvidia's P/E drops back to between 40-50x, the stock will be more attractive to invest in.</p><p>Meanwhile, Micron is a company with growth potential, and its current stock price is also more reasonable.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia VS Micron! The Battle Between Market Position and Quality Cheap Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia VS Micron! The Battle Between Market Position and Quality Cheap Stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-05 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As a giant in the semiconductor industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>, all benefiting from strong growth trends in data centers, autonomous vehicles, and other high-tech sectors. On the one hand, from a purely business standpoint, Nvidia's asset-light operating model and market leadership make it more popular with investors. Micron's shares, on the other hand, are relatively cheaper and therefore perhaps a better investment option.</p><p>The bull market of the past few years has propelled Nvidia to become by far the most valuable semiconductor company. It is the eighth-largest company in the world by market capitalization, compared with only the other semiconductor companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>(TSM.US) enters the top 25 of the market cap list.</p><p>In fact, Nvidia has been playing a game of Picks and Shovels (in the past, in the gold rush, most gold diggers who wanted to become mine owners failed, while those who sold Picks, Shovels, tents and jeans to gold diggers made a fortune, which can be understood as investing in companies not in this industry that indirectly benefited from the high-tech industry boom). Nvidia's GPUs (graphics processing units) are becoming increasingly important in areas such as data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and self-driving cars, plus<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>(FB.US) and others are ramping up their investments in these areas, and as a result, widespread demand has led to a shortage of Nvidia's products and pushed the company's stock higher.</p><p>However, Nvidia's P/E, which fell to 35 times in 2020, is now close to 100 times, a much higher P/E than its semiconductor peers. It is understood that Micron has a market capitalization of $104 billion and a P/E of 14 times. In contrast, Micron's revenue actually exceeds that of Nvidia. Over the past 12 months, Micron's revenue reached $27.7 billion, compared to Nvidia's revenue of $24.3 billion.<b>If Micron had a P/E like Nvidia, its market value would reach $713 billion, which is only 5.6% smaller than Nvidia's current market value.</b></p><p>From a business point of view, these two companies don't have much similar business except that they both design semiconductor products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51eac4e04708d3cd9a6b44af9a9ec924\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GPU Market Share</p><p>Nvidia is focused on its GPU offerings, with the company holding an 83% GPU market share as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1038251c06a588aff3da5fd4afc4c9a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NAND Equipment Market Share</p><p>Micron, on the other hand, ranks third in DRAM market share, while it only ranks fifth in NAND market share. Unlike Nvidia, Micron seems to have no obvious advantages in intellectual property except designing chips.</p><p>It is understood that DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs focus on performing large amounts of operations quickly, memory chips focus on storing large amounts of information. The memory chip is used with the GPU, so it does not constitute a direct competition with the GPU. Micron has partnered with Nvidia on various products that will benefit both companies. In addition, both companies have highlighted conducting research in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G, IoT, gaming, industry, blockchain, metaverse, and automotive to drive the company's future growth.</p><p><b>Future growth expectations for Nvidia</b></p><p>Based on current analyst forecasts for Nvidia's revenue and profit over the next two years, its earnings will grow at a CAGR of 16-18%. From 2005 to 2020, Nvidia's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12%. If the historical performance in 2021 is taken into account, its CAGR will reach 14%. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect the company's top line growth rate to continue to improve relative to historical levels against the backdrop of forecasts that economic growth will improve slightly. This level of growth is well above the industry average.</p><p>It is understood that since 2008,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>(AVGO.US), as the only large semiconductor company with a CAGR of more than 15% in revenue, is the first to break that threshold through acquisitions. Peter Lynch, a prominent investor, was skeptical of any company growing more than 20pc because it would be difficult to sustain that growth. The semiconductor industry is no exception, which also proves the correctness of this theory. Nvidia's P/E in 2021 was nearly 100x, and the company's top line base was the largest ever, so it was struggling to sustain its high top line growth trend.</p><p>However, Nvidia's CAGR would have to be well above 18% to justify its valuation, as an 18% growth rate would put its PEG metric (P/E Relative Earnings Growth Ratio) above 5. And if Nvidia can achieve its expected growth, its expected P/E will be 49 times. It is also worth noting that the revenue of the semiconductor business is quite cyclical, so this is not the first time that Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In both 2008 and 2018, Nvidia's revenue growth reached 34%, but the latter year of those two years, its growth rates plummeted to-16% and 21%, respectively.</p><p>While Nvidia, on the other hand, also benefited from the cryptocurrency boom in 2021. But the company has said that it is still unknown how much demand for cryptocurrencies will affect revenue. It is understood that its products have been used to mine Bitcoin.</p><p>Although it has not been proven that Bitcoin will go lower in 2022. But other altcoins, including Ethereum, are gradually grabbing Bitcoin its share of the cryptocurrency market. And because other altcoins don't need too much computing power, they don't need to use Nvidia's GPU products too much. But Micron is not affected by altcoins and may get a piece of it, mainly because miners need a lot of electricity and a lot of memory.</p><p>More perception in the market right now is that Nvidia is benefiting from a GPU shortage related to its mining business, which could negatively affect Nvidia's stock if there is a price crash in Bitcoin.</p><p>Nvidia certainly won't focus solely on the business of cryptocurrency, as this will have an adverse effect on the company. In fact, the company's business revenue in other areas is also growing rapidly:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3258fbc77bfd538b9cf2be0f904e559\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Revenue Growth Rate in Other Areas</p><p>Again, there is significant growth potential in each of these areas, which could be a factor driving Nvidia to continue to grow its top line rapidly in the coming years.</p><p><b>Micron's Future Growth Expectations</b></p><p>In terms of growth, Micron is no slouch.</p><p>From 2005 to 2020, the company's revenue grew at a CAGR of 10% (compared to Nvidia's CAGR of 12%). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest-growing sub-field of semiconductors for the past 20 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa7a1d06183dd603600dc2a68240250\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Micron's Revenue Growth Rate by Segment</p><p>Micron divides its segments slightly differently than Nvidia, but many of its segments are also growing rapidly. Separately, the company is also highlighting many businesses that can drive the company's revenue growth. In particular, this year the company expects its revenue growth rate on the Internet of Things business to reach 80%, and the company also expects its automotive-related business revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 40-50% over the next three years.</p><p>Micron's projected EPS growth is premised on top line growth of 16% based on its forecast, which appears to be an achievable target as that growth rate is only slightly above its historical top line growth rate. Ideally, an investment should be fairly valued based on reasonable earnings expectations, so that a company's valuation does not significantly exceed expectations and has a better chance of a strong return.</p><p>Another reason why there are arguments that Micron's growth expectations are achievable is that they are in a supply and demand cycle that favors the company. We can learn that although the revenue of its peer-Nvidia is breaking records every quarter, Micron's current annual revenue is still lower than that of 2018. This is an industry-wide problem. As a competitor, SK Hynix's revenue also reached its peak in 2018. But given the strong growth trends underpinning the sector, and the various developments that have unfolded since 2018, investors have reason to imagine another record top line in the memory sector.</p><p>In addition, 75% of Micron's revenue comes from long-term agreements that work closely with customers, which is a significant improvement from 10% five years ago. In addition, in the era of enterprise integration in the memory industry, it will bring more bargaining power and less risk of oversupply to companies, and Micron can get the support of the federal government as part of the CHIPS Act (the bill to create beneficial incentives for chip production), which also seems to focus more on chip manufacturing than design (so it is unlikely to benefit Nvidia).</p><p>Recently, Micron began distributing Dividend, indicating management's confidence in their continued cash flow.</p><p><b>Risk</b></p><p>What needs to be explained by Tebi is that although Micron is likely to outperform Nvidia in the next few years, this does not mean that Nvidia's stock price will fall. A big company like Nvidia can maintain a high P/E for a long time, so shorting Nvidia is not a wise choice.</p><p>Similarly, Micron may ultimately underperform Nvidia for several reasons.</p><p>First, Micron's position in the market is not as strong as Nvidia's. While Micron's market position will improve, even so, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In comparison, although it is a market leader in low-power DRAM products, its market share is still relatively small. This may put some pressure on Micron to drive innovation through research and development or exercising pricing power.</p><p>On the other hand, Nvidia owns a large number of intellectual property rights, is the largest GPU manufacturer in the world, and it is also the manufacturer with the largest R&D budget. Both companies have benefited from multiple expansions. The difference is that Micron's current P/E is 14 times, which is a reasonable multiple for a cyclical company with revenue growth of more than 10%. Nvidia's current P/E of 93 times is also a reasonable multiple for a high-quality company that is expected to achieve revenue growth of more than 30% in the next few years. But both companies are likely to be impacted by market bad movements in the future, but Micron may not benefit as much from the P/E correction as Nvidia.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Micron and Nvidia are both good semiconductor companies, but Nvidia may be a better company in terms of market position and profit margins. If Nvidia's P/E drops back to between 40-50x, the stock will be more attractive to invest in.</p><p>Meanwhile, Micron is a company with growth potential, and its current stock price is also more reasonable.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e8aba7de194dc92d26747c1cfec057","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4566":"资本集团","NVDA":"英伟达","MU":"美光科技","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141749236","content_text":"作为半导体行业巨头的英伟达和美光，都受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。一方面，从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资产运营模式和市场领导地位使其更受投资者青睐。另一方面，美光的股价相对来说更便宜，因此或许是更好的投资选择。过去几年的牛市行情推动英伟达成为迄今为止市值最高的半导体公司。它是现今世界上第八大市值的公司，而在其他的半导体企业中，只有台积电(TSM.US)进入市值榜单的前25名。事实上，英伟达一直在玩一场“淘金先富卖铲人”（Picks and Shovels）的游戏(在过去在淘金热潮中，大多数想要成为矿主的淘金者都以失败告终，而那些向淘金者出售铁镐，铁铲，帐篷和牛仔裤的人却发了大财，这里可理解为投资于那些从高科技行业热潮中间接受益的非该行业的公司)。英伟达的GPU(图形处理器)在数据中心、加密货币挖矿和自动驾驶汽车等领域变得越来越重要，再加上Meta Platforms(FB.US)等公司都在加大在这些领域的投入，因此，广泛的需求导致英伟达的产品出现短缺，并推动了该公司股价走高。然而，英伟达的市盈率在2020年时曾跌至35倍，现在如今却接近100倍，这一市盈率远远高于其半导体同行。据了解，美光的市值为1040亿美元，市盈率为14倍，相比之下，美光的营收实际上超过了英伟达。在过去的12个月里，美光的营收达到277亿美元，而英伟达的营收为243亿美元。若美光拥有像英伟达那样的市盈率，其市值将达到7130亿美元，只比英伟达目前市值小5.6%。而从商业角度来看，这两家公司除了都设计半导体产品之外，并没有太多的相似业务。GPU市场份额英伟达专注于其GPU产品，截至2021年的第三季度，该公司拥有83%的GPU市场份额。NAND设备市场份额另一方面，美光的DRAM市场份额排在第三，而NAND市场份额上仅排在第五。而与英伟达不同的是，美光除了设计芯片外，在知识产权方面似乎并没有明显的优势。据了解，DRAM和NAND是两种存储芯片。而GPU则专注于快速执行大量操作，而内存芯片专注于存储大量信息。而内存芯片与GPU一起使用，因此并不构成与GPU的直接竞争。美光与英伟达在各种产品上进行合作，这将使两家公司受益。此外，两家公司都强调了在人工智能、5G、物联网、游戏、工业、区块链、元宇宙和汽车等领域开展研究，以推动公司未来的增长。英伟达未来的增长预期根据目前分析师对英伟达未来两年营收和利润的预测，其盈利复合年均增长率将达到16-18%。而从2005年到2020年，英伟达的营收以12%的复合年均增长率增长。若将2021年的历史业绩考虑进去，其复合年均增长率将达到14%。因此，相对于历史水平，在经济增速将略有提高的预测背景下，预计该公司的营收增长率将继续提高，是合理的。这种增长水平远高于行业的平均水平。据了解，自2008年以来，博通(AVGO.US)作为唯一一家营收复合年均增长率超过15%的大型半导体公司，是首个通过收购突破这一门槛的公司。著名投资者彼得•林奇(Peter Lynch)曾对任何增长速度超过20%的公司都持怀疑态度，因为维持这种增长是很困难的。半导体行业也没有例外，这也侧面证明该理论的正确性。英伟达在2021年的市盈率接近100倍，而且该公司的营收基数也是有史以来最大的，因此它很难维持住高营收增长的趋势。然而，英伟达的复合年增长率必须远远高于18%，才能证明其估值的合理性，因为18%的增长率将使其PEG指标(市盈率相对盈利增长比率)高于5。而如果英伟达能实现其预期的增长，其预期市盈率将为49倍。同样值得注意的是，半导体业务的营收是颇具周期性，所以这并不是英伟达第一次经历强劲增长。在2008年和2018年，英伟达的营收增长率都达到了34%，但这两年份的后一年，其增长率分别骤降至-16%和21%。而另一方面，英伟达在2021年还受益于加密货币热潮。但该公司曾表示，加密货币的需求对营收的影响究竟有多大，目前还不得而知。据了解，其产品一直被用于挖掘比特币。虽然目前尚未能证明在2022年里，比特币将走低。但其他包括以太坊在内的替代币正逐渐抢夺比特币在加密货币市场的份额。而由于其他替代币并不需要太多的算力，因此他们并不需要过多的用到英伟达的GPU产品。但美光并不会受到替代币的影响，并有可能能从中分一杯羹，这主要由于矿工需要大量电力和大量内存。市场目前更多的看法是，英伟达受益于与挖矿业务相关的GPU短缺，而如果比特币价格出现崩盘，这可能会对英伟达的股票造成负面影响。英伟达当然不会只专注于加密货币的业务，因为这对公司来说会产生不利的影响。而事实上，该公司在其他领域的业务营收也在快速增长:其他领域的营收增长率同样，这些领域都有着巨大的增长潜力，这可能会成为推动英伟达在未来几年营收继续快速增长的因素。美光未来的增长预期在成长性方面，美光也毫不逊色。从2005年到2020年，该公司的营收年均复合增长率为10%(相比之下，英伟达的年均复合增长率为12%)。据美光称，在过去20年里，存储器一直是半导体领域里增长最快的子领域。美光在各领域的营收增长率美光对细分市场的划分与英伟达稍有不同，但它的很多细分业务也都在快速增长。另外，该公司也在强调许多可以推动公司营收增长的业务。特别是，今年该公司预计其在物联网业务上的营收增长率将达到80%，公司还预计在未来三年，其与汽车相关的业务营收的复合年增长率为40-50%。美光预计的每股盈利增长的前提是基于其预测的16%的营收增长，而这似乎是一个可以实现的目标，因为该增长率仅略高于其营收的历史增长率。理想情况下，一项投资应该基于合理的盈利预期来进行公平估值，这样一来，一家公司的估值就不会大幅超出预期，也就更有机会获得强劲的回报。有观点认为美光的增长预期是可以实现的另一个原因是，它们所处的供需周期有利于该公司。我们可以了解到，尽管同行--英伟达的营收每个季度都在打破纪录，但美光目前的年度营收仍低于2018年。而这是一个全行业的问题，作为竞争对手SK海力士的营收也在2018年达到顶峰。但考虑到支撑该行业的强劲增长趋势，以及自2018年以来各种事态的发展，投资者有理由想象内存行业的营收将再创历史新高。此外，美光有75%的营收来自与客户密切合作的长期协议，这与五年前的10%相比，有了大大的提升。另外，在内存行业已开启企业整合的时代，会给各公司带来更多的议价能力以及更少的供应过剩风险，而且作为CHIPS法案（为芯片生产创造有益的激励措施法案）的一部分，美光可以获得联邦政府的支持，该法案也似乎更关注于芯片的制造而不是设计(因此不太可能惠及英伟达)。最近，美光开始派发股息，这表明管理层对他们的持续现金流的有信心。风险需要特比说明的是虽然美光未来几年的表现很可能会超过英伟达，但这并不意味英伟达的股价将会下跌。像英伟达这样的大公司可以在很长一段时间内保持较高的市盈率，因此做空英伟达并不是明智的选择。同样，美光最终的表现也可能会逊于英伟达，其原因有几个。首先，美光在市场的地位并不如英伟达强大。虽然美光的市场地位会有所改善，但即便如此，与三星相比，尽管它在低功耗DRAM产品方面处于市场领先地位，但其市场份额仍相对较小。这可能会对美光通过研发或行使定价权来推动创新构成一定的压力。而另一方面，英伟达拥有大量的知识产权，是全球最大的GPU厂商，也是研发预算最多的厂商。两家公司都曾从多次的扩张中获益。而不同之处在于，美光目前的市盈率为14倍，对于一家营收增速达10%以上的周期性公司来说，这是一个合理的倍数。而英伟达目前93倍的市盈率，对于一家未来几年有望实现30%以上的营收增长的高质量公司来说，也是一个合理的倍数。但这两家公司未来都可能受到市场坏境变动的影响，但美光在市盈率的调整中获得的好处可能并不如英伟达多。总结美光和英伟达都是不错的半导体公司，但就市场地位和利润率而言，英伟达可能是一家更好的公司。如果英伟达的市盈率回落至40-50倍之间，那么该股会更具投资吸引力。与此同时，美光是一家有着增长潜力的公司，其目前的股价也更为合理。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9005321963,"gmtCreate":1642177370080,"gmtModify":1676533689907,"author":{"id":"4101713019432660","authorId":"4101713019432660","name":"TSwin2022","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101713019432660","authorIdStr":"4101713019432660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005321963","repostId":"2203715446","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002470409,"gmtCreate":1642083849475,"gmtModify":1676533679113,"author":{"id":"4101713019432660","authorId":"4101713019432660","name":"TSwin2022","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101713019432660","authorIdStr":"4101713019432660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002470409","repostId":"2203764202","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2203764202","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642082345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2203764202?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-13 21:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"In 2022, electric vehicles staged a wave of price increases?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2203764202","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"紧随特斯拉之后，小鹏汽车也涨价了。1月11日，小鹏汽车全系涨价。身为国内电动车“三剑客” - 小蔚理之一的小鹏汽车，它的涨价宣告在业内影响不小。过去的一年，新能源汽车开启了自己的元年，创下了一年近销售","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6036c893dd8bd8a3bc794f1088896a82\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>The price has also increased.</p><p>On January 11th, the price of XPeng Motors all series increased. As one of the \"Three Musketeers\" of domestic electric vehicles-Xiao Weili, XPeng Automobile, its price increase announcement has a big impact on the industry.</p><p>In the past year, new energy vehicles started their first year, setting a record high of nearly 3 million vehicles sold a year. Some car companies sold over 10,000 vehicles a month, which the industry called \"consumer awakening of new energy\";<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Chairman Li Bin said in Versailles at the end of the year, \"I don't know why so many people still go to buy fuel vehicles\", which recruited a wave of black.</p><p>At such a milestone node, the price of new energy vehicles will rise again. What impact will this have on hard-won consumer habits? Will the consumption of electric vehicles be sluggish in 2022, and will the new energy sector, which plummeted in the beginning of the year, stage last year's feast?</p><p><h2><b>Price hike storm</b></h2>On January 11, XPeng announced the latest subsidized prices for all models. The whole P7 series rose by 4,300 yuan to 5,900 yuan, and the whole P5 series and SUV model G3i series rose by 4,800 yuan to 5,400 yuan. XPeng only adjusted the price this time, and there were no changes in design and configuration.</p><p>Regarding this price adjustment, XPeng has already made a preview. After the announcement of the Notice of subsidy reduction at the end of the year, XPeng Automobile officially launched a limited-time insurance policy, saying that users can lock in the subsidy in 2021 if they place an order before 24: 00 on January 10, 2022, and the reduction will be borne by Xpeng Motors. From January 11, 2022, XPeng Motors will adjust its pricing system.</p><p>However, on the day of announcing the price increase, investors were still a little \"small emotion\". XPeng Motors once fell by more than 5% in intraday trading, closing down 4.46%.</p><p>XPeng is neither the only one nor the first in the price increase of new energy vehicles. In fact, at the end of last year, Tesla had taken the lead in raising prices twice, becoming the \"whistleblower\" of the collective price increase of new energy electric vehicles in 2022.</p><p>On November 24, 2021, Tesla raised the prices of both domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive versions by 4,752 yuan. Some Tesla salespeople said that this was due to the expected state subsidy to drop from 15,840 yuan to 11,088 yuan.</p><p>By December 31, 2021, Tesla raised prices again, with the rear-wheel drive versions of the Model 3 and Model Y increasing by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively. According to officials, this time was caused by many influences such as subsidy decline and raw material price increase.</p><p>Some friends have also made similar decisions in the front and back of the price adjustment of Tesla and XPeng vehicles.</p><p>Some U models of Nezha Automobile will be raised by 3,000-5,000 yuan, and some V models of Nezha will be raised by 2,000 yuan; The price of GAC AION LX increased by 4,000 yuan, and the new AION S Plus on the market increased by more than 7,000 yuan compared with the 2021 model;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>From February 1st, the rights and interests of the first owner's lifetime warranty of three electricity and extended range system will be cancelled and adjusted to 8 years or 120,000 kilometers; FAW-Volkswagen announced that its new energy models will increase in price from New Year's Day in 2020, and the prices of two pure electric models, ID.6 CROZZ and ID.4 CROZZ, will increase by 5,400 yuan. In this way, the collective price increase of new energy vehicles has become a general trend after the beginning of the year, and the initial motivation is the decline of new energy subsidies. On the last day of 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Adjustment of the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Policy, which clarified that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021.</p><p>According to the latest subsidy scheme, from January 1, 2022, there will be no subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a cruising range of less than 300 kilometers; The subsidy for pure electric models with a distance of 300-400 kilometers decreased by 3,900 yuan year-on-year; The subsidy for pure electric models greater than/equal to 400 kilometers decreased by 5,400 yuan year-on-year; Subsidies for plug-in hybrid models decreased by 2,000 yuan year-on-year.</p><p>In addition to the decline of subsidies, the supply of \"brain\"-chip and \"heart\"-battery of the car body is temporarily unable to match the rhythm of enterprise scale expansion. The continuous rise and shortage of upstream raw materials also put pressure on new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>Affected by the epidemic and natural disasters, chip manufacturers concentrated in the United States, Japan and other places have limited production capacity and reduced shipments. At present, most of China's high-end chips rely on imports, and the \"chip shortage\" clamps down the delivery progress of car enterprises. The supply and demand are unbalanced, the volume of goods is scarce, and the price naturally can't go down.</p><p>The raw materials of lithium batteries, which account for 30-40% of the cost of the whole vehicle, are turning up almost every day, the prices of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other raw materials are rising, and the prices of cathode materials and electrolyte of power batteries continue to rise.</p><p>According to the calculation of Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), the actual cost increase of battery enterprises is about 20%-25%, and the purchase price of batteries finally transmitted to the OEM end may actually increase by about 10%-20%, further attacking the profits of car enterprises, and the final price increase seems to be a last resort.</p><p>In addition, from the perspective of the operation of car companies, new energy car companies that are in the stage of \"fighting the world\" seem to be behind the scenery, but they have not yet gotten rid of their losses, and increasing revenue without increasing profits is still the main tone.</p><p>According to the third quarterly report of 2021, Nio had a revenue of 1.836.8 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.521.7 billion yuan in the third quarter; XPeng Automobile's revenue in the third quarter reached 5.72 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 1.59 billion yuan; Li Auto had a revenue of 7.78 billion yuan and a net loss of 21.5 million yuan in the third quarter.</p><p>This means that when the boots with reduced subsidies land in 2022, the profit pressure of car companies will be released in a short time, and some costs will be passed on to consumption.</p><p><h2><b>Future promising?</b></h2>In the year before this wave of price increases, new energy vehicles can be said to be proud and high morale.</p><p>According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in 2021, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 2.989 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 169.1%, and the market penetration rate was 14.8%. You know, this figure was only 5% the year before.</p><p>However, in just 10 days at the beginning of 2022, the new energy sector experienced a \"frightening moment\". The stock prices of a number of related companies continued to fall. During the year, the stock price was \"evergreen\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The market value evaporated by 8.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The decline reached 10.8%, and the cumulative evaporated market value of A-share new energy vehicle sector exceeded 500 billion yuan.</p><p>The market seems to have cooled off its frenetic enthusiasm and begun to think seriously about the future of new energy vehicles. Insiders pointed out that the new energy sector plummeted, partly because the investment market has long been singing the stock prices of leading companies in the industry, which has overdrawn their future performance and caused their valuation to deviate. The high correction of stock prices is also a sign that investors tend to be rational.</p><p>In addition, subsidies have declined, car companies have raised prices, and investors are worried that rising prices will stimulate consumers, thus affecting the original rapid development momentum.</p><p>In fact, the market's understanding of subsidy decline is not comprehensive. On January 11th, the Passenger Car Association reported that although the subsidy standard for bicycles has been reduced, the upper limit of 2 million vehicles has been lifted for the total number of subsidizable vehicles, which is actually a positive.</p><p>Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, said that the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles has actually been more liberalized, which has brought huge incremental space. The subsidy amount has increased by at least 10 billion yuan, which has an obvious pulling effect on the auto market.</p><p>The Passenger Car Association predicts that the cumulative sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million units in 2022, with a market penetration rate of around 22%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of energy passenger vehicles will exceed 5.5 million units, and the market penetration rate will reach about 25%.</p><p>From the market perspective, some car companies choose to bear the pressure of falling subsidies and rising materials, and do not raise prices; In addition, some car companies have launched strategies such as time-limited price insurance, which has set off a wave of purchases, and even some stores have been \"robbed\" of their exhibition cars.</p><p>The industry believes that after several years of market cultivation of new energy vehicles, consumer awareness has become mature, and they will not give up their original plan to buy new energy vehicles just because of the reduction of subsidies.</p><p>The biggest change and uncertainty comes from the competitive landscape of car companies. The adjustment of subsidy policy means that manufacturers should attract consumers with excellent products instead of prices and subsidies, which is a switch from subsidy-driven to market-driven mode, which will inject new vitality into the whole industry.</p><p>Under the law of survival of the fittest, car companies will be forced to come up with more technology, higher quality and faster iterative products to cope with market competition, and those who can't do it will fall.</p><p>This also means that at the beginning of the new year, the vibration of the new energy sector is a signal of the innovation of the whole industrial model, and a brand-new knockout game is opened. This is what Li Bin, He Xiaopeng and other industry bosses said, \"It can never be said that the most dangerous time has passed\".</p><p>Everything is just beginning.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In 2022, electric vehicles staged a wave of price increases?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn 2022, electric vehicles staged a wave of price increases?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-13 21:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6036c893dd8bd8a3bc794f1088896a82\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>The price has also increased.</p><p>On January 11th, the price of XPeng Motors all series increased. As one of the \"Three Musketeers\" of domestic electric vehicles-Xiao Weili, XPeng Automobile, its price increase announcement has a big impact on the industry.</p><p>In the past year, new energy vehicles started their first year, setting a record high of nearly 3 million vehicles sold a year. Some car companies sold over 10,000 vehicles a month, which the industry called \"consumer awakening of new energy\";<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Chairman Li Bin said in Versailles at the end of the year, \"I don't know why so many people still go to buy fuel vehicles\", which recruited a wave of black.</p><p>At such a milestone node, the price of new energy vehicles will rise again. What impact will this have on hard-won consumer habits? Will the consumption of electric vehicles be sluggish in 2022, and will the new energy sector, which plummeted in the beginning of the year, stage last year's feast?</p><p><h2><b>Price hike storm</b></h2>On January 11, XPeng announced the latest subsidized prices for all models. The whole P7 series rose by 4,300 yuan to 5,900 yuan, and the whole P5 series and SUV model G3i series rose by 4,800 yuan to 5,400 yuan. XPeng only adjusted the price this time, and there were no changes in design and configuration.</p><p>Regarding this price adjustment, XPeng has already made a preview. After the announcement of the Notice of subsidy reduction at the end of the year, XPeng Automobile officially launched a limited-time insurance policy, saying that users can lock in the subsidy in 2021 if they place an order before 24: 00 on January 10, 2022, and the reduction will be borne by Xpeng Motors. From January 11, 2022, XPeng Motors will adjust its pricing system.</p><p>However, on the day of announcing the price increase, investors were still a little \"small emotion\". XPeng Motors once fell by more than 5% in intraday trading, closing down 4.46%.</p><p>XPeng is neither the only one nor the first in the price increase of new energy vehicles. In fact, at the end of last year, Tesla had taken the lead in raising prices twice, becoming the \"whistleblower\" of the collective price increase of new energy electric vehicles in 2022.</p><p>On November 24, 2021, Tesla raised the prices of both domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive versions by 4,752 yuan. Some Tesla salespeople said that this was due to the expected state subsidy to drop from 15,840 yuan to 11,088 yuan.</p><p>By December 31, 2021, Tesla raised prices again, with the rear-wheel drive versions of the Model 3 and Model Y increasing by 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively. According to officials, this time was caused by many influences such as subsidy decline and raw material price increase.</p><p>Some friends have also made similar decisions in the front and back of the price adjustment of Tesla and XPeng vehicles.</p><p>Some U models of Nezha Automobile will be raised by 3,000-5,000 yuan, and some V models of Nezha will be raised by 2,000 yuan; The price of GAC AION LX increased by 4,000 yuan, and the new AION S Plus on the market increased by more than 7,000 yuan compared with the 2021 model;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>From February 1st, the rights and interests of the first owner's lifetime warranty of three electricity and extended range system will be cancelled and adjusted to 8 years or 120,000 kilometers; FAW-Volkswagen announced that its new energy models will increase in price from New Year's Day in 2020, and the prices of two pure electric models, ID.6 CROZZ and ID.4 CROZZ, will increase by 5,400 yuan. In this way, the collective price increase of new energy vehicles has become a general trend after the beginning of the year, and the initial motivation is the decline of new energy subsidies. On the last day of 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Adjustment of the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Policy, which clarified that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021.</p><p>According to the latest subsidy scheme, from January 1, 2022, there will be no subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a cruising range of less than 300 kilometers; The subsidy for pure electric models with a distance of 300-400 kilometers decreased by 3,900 yuan year-on-year; The subsidy for pure electric models greater than/equal to 400 kilometers decreased by 5,400 yuan year-on-year; Subsidies for plug-in hybrid models decreased by 2,000 yuan year-on-year.</p><p>In addition to the decline of subsidies, the supply of \"brain\"-chip and \"heart\"-battery of the car body is temporarily unable to match the rhythm of enterprise scale expansion. The continuous rise and shortage of upstream raw materials also put pressure on new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>Affected by the epidemic and natural disasters, chip manufacturers concentrated in the United States, Japan and other places have limited production capacity and reduced shipments. At present, most of China's high-end chips rely on imports, and the \"chip shortage\" clamps down the delivery progress of car enterprises. The supply and demand are unbalanced, the volume of goods is scarce, and the price naturally can't go down.</p><p>The raw materials of lithium batteries, which account for 30-40% of the cost of the whole vehicle, are turning up almost every day, the prices of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other raw materials are rising, and the prices of cathode materials and electrolyte of power batteries continue to rise.</p><p>According to the calculation of Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), the actual cost increase of battery enterprises is about 20%-25%, and the purchase price of batteries finally transmitted to the OEM end may actually increase by about 10%-20%, further attacking the profits of car enterprises, and the final price increase seems to be a last resort.</p><p>In addition, from the perspective of the operation of car companies, new energy car companies that are in the stage of \"fighting the world\" seem to be behind the scenery, but they have not yet gotten rid of their losses, and increasing revenue without increasing profits is still the main tone.</p><p>According to the third quarterly report of 2021, Nio had a revenue of 1.836.8 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.521.7 billion yuan in the third quarter; XPeng Automobile's revenue in the third quarter reached 5.72 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 1.59 billion yuan; Li Auto had a revenue of 7.78 billion yuan and a net loss of 21.5 million yuan in the third quarter.</p><p>This means that when the boots with reduced subsidies land in 2022, the profit pressure of car companies will be released in a short time, and some costs will be passed on to consumption.</p><p><h2><b>Future promising?</b></h2>In the year before this wave of price increases, new energy vehicles can be said to be proud and high morale.</p><p>According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in 2021, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 2.989 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 169.1%, and the market penetration rate was 14.8%. You know, this figure was only 5% the year before.</p><p>However, in just 10 days at the beginning of 2022, the new energy sector experienced a \"frightening moment\". The stock prices of a number of related companies continued to fall. During the year, the stock price was \"evergreen\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The market value evaporated by 8.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The decline reached 10.8%, and the cumulative evaporated market value of A-share new energy vehicle sector exceeded 500 billion yuan.</p><p>The market seems to have cooled off its frenetic enthusiasm and begun to think seriously about the future of new energy vehicles. Insiders pointed out that the new energy sector plummeted, partly because the investment market has long been singing the stock prices of leading companies in the industry, which has overdrawn their future performance and caused their valuation to deviate. The high correction of stock prices is also a sign that investors tend to be rational.</p><p>In addition, subsidies have declined, car companies have raised prices, and investors are worried that rising prices will stimulate consumers, thus affecting the original rapid development momentum.</p><p>In fact, the market's understanding of subsidy decline is not comprehensive. On January 11th, the Passenger Car Association reported that although the subsidy standard for bicycles has been reduced, the upper limit of 2 million vehicles has been lifted for the total number of subsidizable vehicles, which is actually a positive.</p><p>Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, said that the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles has actually been more liberalized, which has brought huge incremental space. The subsidy amount has increased by at least 10 billion yuan, which has an obvious pulling effect on the auto market.</p><p>The Passenger Car Association predicts that the cumulative sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million units in 2022, with a market penetration rate of around 22%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of energy passenger vehicles will exceed 5.5 million units, and the market penetration rate will reach about 25%.</p><p>From the market perspective, some car companies choose to bear the pressure of falling subsidies and rising materials, and do not raise prices; In addition, some car companies have launched strategies such as time-limited price insurance, which has set off a wave of purchases, and even some stores have been \"robbed\" of their exhibition cars.</p><p>The industry believes that after several years of market cultivation of new energy vehicles, consumer awareness has become mature, and they will not give up their original plan to buy new energy vehicles just because of the reduction of subsidies.</p><p>The biggest change and uncertainty comes from the competitive landscape of car companies. The adjustment of subsidy policy means that manufacturers should attract consumers with excellent products instead of prices and subsidies, which is a switch from subsidy-driven to market-driven mode, which will inject new vitality into the whole industry.</p><p>Under the law of survival of the fittest, car companies will be forced to come up with more technology, higher quality and faster iterative products to cope with market competition, and those who can't do it will fall.</p><p>This also means that at the beginning of the new year, the vibration of the new energy sector is a signal of the innovation of the whole industrial model, and a brand-new knockout game is opened. This is what Li Bin, He Xiaopeng and other industry bosses said, \"It can never be said that the most dangerous time has passed\".</p><p>Everything is just beginning.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3649653\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6036c893dd8bd8a3bc794f1088896a82","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LI":"理想汽车","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1587":"次新股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4123":"调查和咨询服务","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1539":"汽车股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3649653","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2203764202","content_text":"紧随特斯拉之后，小鹏汽车也涨价了。1月11日，小鹏汽车全系涨价。身为国内电动车“三剑客” - 小蔚理之一的小鹏汽车，它的涨价宣告在业内影响不小。过去的一年，新能源汽车开启了自己的元年，创下了一年近销售300万辆的历史新高，部分车企月销量过万，业内人士将之称为“新能源的消费者觉醒”；蔚来董事长李斌在年末凡尔赛地说，“我不知道为什么那么多人还去买燃油车”，招了一波黑。就在这样里程碑式的节点上，新能源车又要涨价了，这对来之不易的消费者习惯将会产生怎样的影响，2022年电动车消费会不会萎靡，开年大跌的新能源板块，还会不会上演去年的盛宴？涨价风波1月11日，小鹏汽车公布了全系车型最新补贴后的价格。 P7 全系上涨 4300 元~ 5900 元， P5 全系及 SUV 车型 G3i 全系上涨 4800 元~ 5400 元。小鹏此次仅针对价格进行调整，设计、配置等方面均没有变化。关于这次调价，小鹏早已做了预告。在年底补贴退坡的《通知》公布后，小鹏汽车官方就推出了限时保价政策，称用户在 2022 年 1 月 10 日 24 点前下订，即可锁定 2021 年的补贴，退坡部分由小鹏汽车承担。2022 年 1 月 11 日起，小鹏汽车将调整价格体系。不过宣布涨价当天，投资者们还是有点“小情绪” ，小鹏汽车盘中一度跌超5%，收跌4.46%。新能源汽车涨价，小鹏既不是唯一的一家也不是第一家。其实就在去年年底，特斯拉就已经率先两次涨价，成为2022年新能源电动车集体涨价的“吹哨人”。2021 年 11 月 24 日，特斯拉将国产 Model 3 和 Model Y 的后轮驱动版车型售价均上调 4752 元，有特斯拉销售人员称，这是预期国家补贴将从 15840 元降至 11088 元所致。到了2021 年 12 月 31 日，特斯拉再次上调售价，Model 3 和 Model Y 的后轮驱动版车型分别上涨 1 万元和 2.1 万元。官方称，这次是受补贴退坡以及原材料涨价等多方影响所致。在特斯拉、小鹏汽车调价的前后脚，部分友商也作出了类似的决定。哪吒汽车的 U 部分车型上调 3000-5000 元，哪吒 V 部分车型上调 2000 元；广汽埃安 LX 涨价 4000 元，上市新款 AION S Plus 较 2021 款涨幅在 7000 元以上；理想汽车将于2 月 1 日起，取消首任车主三电和增程系统终生质保的权益，调整为 8 年或 12 万公里；一汽大众宣布自家新能源车型自2020年元旦起涨价，ID.6 CROZZ 和 ID.4 CROZZ 两款纯电车型售价均将上涨 5400 元。如此看来，新能源汽车的集体涨价已成开年后的大趋势，初始动因是新能源补贴退坡。2021 年最后一天，财政部、工信部、科技部、发改委等四部委联合发布的对新能源汽车补贴政策调整的《通知》，其中明确了 2022 年新能源汽车补贴标准在 2021 年基础上退坡 30％。根据最新补贴方案，2022 年 1 月 1 日起，纯电动乘用车续航里程在 300 公里以下的无补贴；300-400 公里的纯电动车型补贴同比减少 3900 元；大于/等于 400 公里的纯电动车型补贴同比减少 5400 元；插电式混合动力车型补贴同比减少 2000 元。除了补贴的下滑，车身的“大脑”-芯片和“心脏“-电池的供应都暂时无法匹配企业规模扩展的节奏，上游原材料的持续上涨与短缺，也向新能源车企施加压力。受疫情、自然灾害的影响，集中于美、日等地的芯片制造商产能受限出货缩减，而我国目前高端芯片大多依赖进口，“芯片荒”钳制着车企交付的进度，供需不平衡、货量稀少，价格自然下不来。占整车成本3-4成的锂电池，其原料几乎每天一个价地往上翻，锂、镍、钴等原材料价格上涨，动力电池正极材料、电解液等价格都在持续走高。根据高工产研锂电研究所（GGII）测算，电池企业实际增加的成本约为20%-25%，最终传导到整车厂端电池的采购价格实际可能增加约10%-20%，进一步向车企的利润发难，最终涨价似乎成为不得已之举。此外，从车企的经营来看，正处于“打天下”阶段的新能源车企，看似风光其实背后仍未摆脱亏损，增收不增利仍是主基调。2021年的三季报显示，蔚来第三季度营收18.368亿元，净亏损25.217亿元；小鹏汽车第三季度营收达到57.2亿元，净利润亏损15.9亿元；理想汽车三季度营收77.8亿元，净亏损为2150万元。这意味着，当2022年补贴下调的靴子落地时，短时间内车企的利润压力要释放，会有一部分成本要转嫁于消费身上。未来可期？在这波涨价潮之前的一年，新能源汽车可以说是扬眉吐气、士气高涨。乘联会数据显示，2021全年，国内新能源乘用车零售量为298.9万辆，同比增长169.1%，市场渗透率为14.8%。要知道，这一数字在前年仅为5%。但2022开年短短10几天，新能源板块经历了“惊魂时刻”。多家相关公司的股价持续下挫，年内，股价“常青树”宁德时代市值蒸发8.7%，比亚迪跌幅达到10.8%，A股新能源汽车板块累计蒸发市值超5000亿元。市场似乎从狂热的激情中冷却下来，开始认真思考新能源汽车的未来。业内人士指出，新能源板块暴跌，一部分原因是投资市场长期唱多行业龙头公司的股价，透支了未来业绩致使其估值发生偏离，股价的高位回调也是投资者趋于理性的表现。另外，补贴退坡，车企提价，投资者担忧价格上涨会刺激到消费者，进而影响原本高歌猛进的发展势头。实际上，市场对补贴退坡的理解并不全面。1月11日，乘联会报告指出，针对单车的补贴标准虽然减少了，但对可补贴车的总量取消了200万辆上限的限制，其实是个利好。乘联会秘书长崔东树表示，新能源车补贴政策实际上更放开了，带来了巨大的增量空间，补贴金额至少增加了 100 亿以，对车市的拉动效果明显。乘联会预测，2022年国内新能源汽车累计销量有望突破600万辆，市场渗透率在22%左右。其中，能源乘用车累计销量将超过550万辆，市场渗透率达到25%左右。从市场层面来看，一些车企选择自我承担补贴下滑和材料上涨的压力，不涨价；另外一些车企推出限时保价等策略，反而掀起了一波购买潮，甚至有的门店连展车都被“抢走”。业内人士认为，在经过了好几年新能源汽车的市场培育之后，消费者意识趋于成熟，不会仅仅因为补贴减少，而放弃原本想要购买新能源汽车的计划。最大的变化和不确定性，来自车企的竞争格局。补贴政策调整，意味着厂商要以过硬的产品而非价格和补贴去吸引消费者，是从补贴驱动向市场驱动模式的切换，这将为整个产业注入新活力。在优胜劣汰的法则下，会倒逼车企拿出更多技术、更高质量、更快迭代的产品应对市场竞争，不行的人会倒下。这也意味着，新年伊始，新能源板块的震动，是整个产业模式革新的信号，拉开的是全新的淘汰赛， 这也是李斌、何小鹏等业内大佬所说的，“永远都不能说最危险的时候已经过去了”。一切都才刚刚开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008804632,"gmtCreate":1641399723334,"gmtModify":1676533610823,"author":{"id":"4101713019432660","authorId":"4101713019432660","name":"TSwin2022","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101713019432660","authorIdStr":"4101713019432660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008804632","repostId":"1141749236","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141749236","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1641384778,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141749236?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-05 20:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nvidia VS Micron! The Battle Between Market Position and Quality Cheap Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141749236","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"作为半导体行业巨头的英伟达和美光，都受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。一方面，从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资产运营模式和市场领导地位使其更受投资者青睐。另一方面，美光的股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As a giant in the semiconductor industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>, all benefiting from strong growth trends in data centers, autonomous vehicles, and other high-tech sectors. On the one hand, from a purely business standpoint, Nvidia's asset-light operating model and market leadership make it more popular with investors. Micron's shares, on the other hand, are relatively cheaper and therefore perhaps a better investment option.</p><p>The bull market of the past few years has propelled Nvidia to become by far the most valuable semiconductor company. It is the eighth-largest company in the world by market capitalization, compared with only the other semiconductor companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>(TSM.US) enters the top 25 of the market cap list.</p><p>In fact, Nvidia has been playing a game of Picks and Shovels (in the past, in the gold rush, most gold diggers who wanted to become mine owners failed, while those who sold Picks, Shovels, tents and jeans to gold diggers made a fortune, which can be understood as investing in companies not in this industry that indirectly benefited from the high-tech industry boom). Nvidia's GPUs (graphics processing units) are becoming increasingly important in areas such as data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and self-driving cars, plus<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>(FB.US) and others are ramping up their investments in these areas, and as a result, widespread demand has led to a shortage of Nvidia's products and pushed the company's stock higher.</p><p>However, Nvidia's P/E, which fell to 35 times in 2020, is now close to 100 times, a much higher P/E than its semiconductor peers. It is understood that Micron has a market capitalization of $104 billion and a P/E of 14 times. In contrast, Micron's revenue actually exceeds that of Nvidia. Over the past 12 months, Micron's revenue reached $27.7 billion, compared to Nvidia's revenue of $24.3 billion.<b>If Micron had a P/E like Nvidia, its market value would reach $713 billion, which is only 5.6% smaller than Nvidia's current market value.</b></p><p>From a business point of view, these two companies don't have much similar business except that they both design semiconductor products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51eac4e04708d3cd9a6b44af9a9ec924\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GPU Market Share</p><p>Nvidia is focused on its GPU offerings, with the company holding an 83% GPU market share as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1038251c06a588aff3da5fd4afc4c9a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NAND Equipment Market Share</p><p>Micron, on the other hand, ranks third in DRAM market share, while it only ranks fifth in NAND market share. Unlike Nvidia, Micron seems to have no obvious advantages in intellectual property except designing chips.</p><p>It is understood that DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs focus on performing large amounts of operations quickly, memory chips focus on storing large amounts of information. The memory chip is used with the GPU, so it does not constitute a direct competition with the GPU. Micron has partnered with Nvidia on various products that will benefit both companies. In addition, both companies have highlighted conducting research in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G, IoT, gaming, industry, blockchain, metaverse, and automotive to drive the company's future growth.</p><p><b>Future growth expectations for Nvidia</b></p><p>Based on current analyst forecasts for Nvidia's revenue and profit over the next two years, its earnings will grow at a CAGR of 16-18%. From 2005 to 2020, Nvidia's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12%. If the historical performance in 2021 is taken into account, its CAGR will reach 14%. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect the company's top line growth rate to continue to improve relative to historical levels against the backdrop of forecasts that economic growth will improve slightly. This level of growth is well above the industry average.</p><p>It is understood that since 2008,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>(AVGO.US), as the only large semiconductor company with a CAGR of more than 15% in revenue, is the first to break that threshold through acquisitions. Peter Lynch, a prominent investor, was skeptical of any company growing more than 20pc because it would be difficult to sustain that growth. The semiconductor industry is no exception, which also proves the correctness of this theory. Nvidia's P/E in 2021 was nearly 100x, and the company's top line base was the largest ever, so it was struggling to sustain its high top line growth trend.</p><p>However, Nvidia's CAGR would have to be well above 18% to justify its valuation, as an 18% growth rate would put its PEG metric (P/E Relative Earnings Growth Ratio) above 5. And if Nvidia can achieve its expected growth, its expected P/E will be 49 times. It is also worth noting that the revenue of the semiconductor business is quite cyclical, so this is not the first time that Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In both 2008 and 2018, Nvidia's revenue growth reached 34%, but the latter year of those two years, its growth rates plummeted to-16% and 21%, respectively.</p><p>While Nvidia, on the other hand, also benefited from the cryptocurrency boom in 2021. But the company has said that it is still unknown how much demand for cryptocurrencies will affect revenue. It is understood that its products have been used to mine Bitcoin.</p><p>Although it has not been proven that Bitcoin will go lower in 2022. But other altcoins, including Ethereum, are gradually grabbing Bitcoin its share of the cryptocurrency market. And because other altcoins don't need too much computing power, they don't need to use Nvidia's GPU products too much. But Micron is not affected by altcoins and may get a piece of it, mainly because miners need a lot of electricity and a lot of memory.</p><p>More perception in the market right now is that Nvidia is benefiting from a GPU shortage related to its mining business, which could negatively affect Nvidia's stock if there is a price crash in Bitcoin.</p><p>Nvidia certainly won't focus solely on the business of cryptocurrency, as this will have an adverse effect on the company. In fact, the company's business revenue in other areas is also growing rapidly:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3258fbc77bfd538b9cf2be0f904e559\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Revenue Growth Rate in Other Areas</p><p>Again, there is significant growth potential in each of these areas, which could be a factor driving Nvidia to continue to grow its top line rapidly in the coming years.</p><p><b>Micron's Future Growth Expectations</b></p><p>In terms of growth, Micron is no slouch.</p><p>From 2005 to 2020, the company's revenue grew at a CAGR of 10% (compared to Nvidia's CAGR of 12%). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest-growing sub-field of semiconductors for the past 20 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa7a1d06183dd603600dc2a68240250\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Micron's Revenue Growth Rate by Segment</p><p>Micron divides its segments slightly differently than Nvidia, but many of its segments are also growing rapidly. Separately, the company is also highlighting many businesses that can drive the company's revenue growth. In particular, this year the company expects its revenue growth rate on the Internet of Things business to reach 80%, and the company also expects its automotive-related business revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 40-50% over the next three years.</p><p>Micron's projected EPS growth is premised on top line growth of 16% based on its forecast, which appears to be an achievable target as that growth rate is only slightly above its historical top line growth rate. Ideally, an investment should be fairly valued based on reasonable earnings expectations, so that a company's valuation does not significantly exceed expectations and has a better chance of a strong return.</p><p>Another reason why there are arguments that Micron's growth expectations are achievable is that they are in a supply and demand cycle that favors the company. We can learn that although the revenue of its peer-Nvidia is breaking records every quarter, Micron's current annual revenue is still lower than that of 2018. This is an industry-wide problem. As a competitor, SK Hynix's revenue also reached its peak in 2018. But given the strong growth trends underpinning the sector, and the various developments that have unfolded since 2018, investors have reason to imagine another record top line in the memory sector.</p><p>In addition, 75% of Micron's revenue comes from long-term agreements that work closely with customers, which is a significant improvement from 10% five years ago. In addition, in the era of enterprise integration in the memory industry, it will bring more bargaining power and less risk of oversupply to companies, and Micron can get the support of the federal government as part of the CHIPS Act (the bill to create beneficial incentives for chip production), which also seems to focus more on chip manufacturing than design (so it is unlikely to benefit Nvidia).</p><p>Recently, Micron began distributing Dividend, indicating management's confidence in their continued cash flow.</p><p><b>Risk</b></p><p>What needs to be explained by Tebi is that although Micron is likely to outperform Nvidia in the next few years, this does not mean that Nvidia's stock price will fall. A big company like Nvidia can maintain a high P/E for a long time, so shorting Nvidia is not a wise choice.</p><p>Similarly, Micron may ultimately underperform Nvidia for several reasons.</p><p>First, Micron's position in the market is not as strong as Nvidia's. While Micron's market position will improve, even so, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In comparison, although it is a market leader in low-power DRAM products, its market share is still relatively small. This may put some pressure on Micron to drive innovation through research and development or exercising pricing power.</p><p>On the other hand, Nvidia owns a large number of intellectual property rights, is the largest GPU manufacturer in the world, and it is also the manufacturer with the largest R&D budget. Both companies have benefited from multiple expansions. The difference is that Micron's current P/E is 14 times, which is a reasonable multiple for a cyclical company with revenue growth of more than 10%. Nvidia's current P/E of 93 times is also a reasonable multiple for a high-quality company that is expected to achieve revenue growth of more than 30% in the next few years. But both companies are likely to be impacted by market bad movements in the future, but Micron may not benefit as much from the P/E correction as Nvidia.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Micron and Nvidia are both good semiconductor companies, but Nvidia may be a better company in terms of market position and profit margins. If Nvidia's P/E drops back to between 40-50x, the stock will be more attractive to invest in.</p><p>Meanwhile, Micron is a company with growth potential, and its current stock price is also more reasonable.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia VS Micron! The Battle Between Market Position and Quality Cheap Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia VS Micron! The Battle Between Market Position and Quality Cheap Stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-05 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As a giant in the semiconductor industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron</a>, all benefiting from strong growth trends in data centers, autonomous vehicles, and other high-tech sectors. On the one hand, from a purely business standpoint, Nvidia's asset-light operating model and market leadership make it more popular with investors. Micron's shares, on the other hand, are relatively cheaper and therefore perhaps a better investment option.</p><p>The bull market of the past few years has propelled Nvidia to become by far the most valuable semiconductor company. It is the eighth-largest company in the world by market capitalization, compared with only the other semiconductor companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>(TSM.US) enters the top 25 of the market cap list.</p><p>In fact, Nvidia has been playing a game of Picks and Shovels (in the past, in the gold rush, most gold diggers who wanted to become mine owners failed, while those who sold Picks, Shovels, tents and jeans to gold diggers made a fortune, which can be understood as investing in companies not in this industry that indirectly benefited from the high-tech industry boom). Nvidia's GPUs (graphics processing units) are becoming increasingly important in areas such as data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and self-driving cars, plus<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>(FB.US) and others are ramping up their investments in these areas, and as a result, widespread demand has led to a shortage of Nvidia's products and pushed the company's stock higher.</p><p>However, Nvidia's P/E, which fell to 35 times in 2020, is now close to 100 times, a much higher P/E than its semiconductor peers. It is understood that Micron has a market capitalization of $104 billion and a P/E of 14 times. In contrast, Micron's revenue actually exceeds that of Nvidia. Over the past 12 months, Micron's revenue reached $27.7 billion, compared to Nvidia's revenue of $24.3 billion.<b>If Micron had a P/E like Nvidia, its market value would reach $713 billion, which is only 5.6% smaller than Nvidia's current market value.</b></p><p>From a business point of view, these two companies don't have much similar business except that they both design semiconductor products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51eac4e04708d3cd9a6b44af9a9ec924\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GPU Market Share</p><p>Nvidia is focused on its GPU offerings, with the company holding an 83% GPU market share as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1038251c06a588aff3da5fd4afc4c9a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NAND Equipment Market Share</p><p>Micron, on the other hand, ranks third in DRAM market share, while it only ranks fifth in NAND market share. Unlike Nvidia, Micron seems to have no obvious advantages in intellectual property except designing chips.</p><p>It is understood that DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs focus on performing large amounts of operations quickly, memory chips focus on storing large amounts of information. The memory chip is used with the GPU, so it does not constitute a direct competition with the GPU. Micron has partnered with Nvidia on various products that will benefit both companies. In addition, both companies have highlighted conducting research in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G, IoT, gaming, industry, blockchain, metaverse, and automotive to drive the company's future growth.</p><p><b>Future growth expectations for Nvidia</b></p><p>Based on current analyst forecasts for Nvidia's revenue and profit over the next two years, its earnings will grow at a CAGR of 16-18%. From 2005 to 2020, Nvidia's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12%. If the historical performance in 2021 is taken into account, its CAGR will reach 14%. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect the company's top line growth rate to continue to improve relative to historical levels against the backdrop of forecasts that economic growth will improve slightly. This level of growth is well above the industry average.</p><p>It is understood that since 2008,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>(AVGO.US), as the only large semiconductor company with a CAGR of more than 15% in revenue, is the first to break that threshold through acquisitions. Peter Lynch, a prominent investor, was skeptical of any company growing more than 20pc because it would be difficult to sustain that growth. The semiconductor industry is no exception, which also proves the correctness of this theory. Nvidia's P/E in 2021 was nearly 100x, and the company's top line base was the largest ever, so it was struggling to sustain its high top line growth trend.</p><p>However, Nvidia's CAGR would have to be well above 18% to justify its valuation, as an 18% growth rate would put its PEG metric (P/E Relative Earnings Growth Ratio) above 5. And if Nvidia can achieve its expected growth, its expected P/E will be 49 times. It is also worth noting that the revenue of the semiconductor business is quite cyclical, so this is not the first time that Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In both 2008 and 2018, Nvidia's revenue growth reached 34%, but the latter year of those two years, its growth rates plummeted to-16% and 21%, respectively.</p><p>While Nvidia, on the other hand, also benefited from the cryptocurrency boom in 2021. But the company has said that it is still unknown how much demand for cryptocurrencies will affect revenue. It is understood that its products have been used to mine Bitcoin.</p><p>Although it has not been proven that Bitcoin will go lower in 2022. But other altcoins, including Ethereum, are gradually grabbing Bitcoin its share of the cryptocurrency market. And because other altcoins don't need too much computing power, they don't need to use Nvidia's GPU products too much. But Micron is not affected by altcoins and may get a piece of it, mainly because miners need a lot of electricity and a lot of memory.</p><p>More perception in the market right now is that Nvidia is benefiting from a GPU shortage related to its mining business, which could negatively affect Nvidia's stock if there is a price crash in Bitcoin.</p><p>Nvidia certainly won't focus solely on the business of cryptocurrency, as this will have an adverse effect on the company. In fact, the company's business revenue in other areas is also growing rapidly:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3258fbc77bfd538b9cf2be0f904e559\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Revenue Growth Rate in Other Areas</p><p>Again, there is significant growth potential in each of these areas, which could be a factor driving Nvidia to continue to grow its top line rapidly in the coming years.</p><p><b>Micron's Future Growth Expectations</b></p><p>In terms of growth, Micron is no slouch.</p><p>From 2005 to 2020, the company's revenue grew at a CAGR of 10% (compared to Nvidia's CAGR of 12%). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest-growing sub-field of semiconductors for the past 20 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa7a1d06183dd603600dc2a68240250\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Micron's Revenue Growth Rate by Segment</p><p>Micron divides its segments slightly differently than Nvidia, but many of its segments are also growing rapidly. Separately, the company is also highlighting many businesses that can drive the company's revenue growth. In particular, this year the company expects its revenue growth rate on the Internet of Things business to reach 80%, and the company also expects its automotive-related business revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 40-50% over the next three years.</p><p>Micron's projected EPS growth is premised on top line growth of 16% based on its forecast, which appears to be an achievable target as that growth rate is only slightly above its historical top line growth rate. Ideally, an investment should be fairly valued based on reasonable earnings expectations, so that a company's valuation does not significantly exceed expectations and has a better chance of a strong return.</p><p>Another reason why there are arguments that Micron's growth expectations are achievable is that they are in a supply and demand cycle that favors the company. We can learn that although the revenue of its peer-Nvidia is breaking records every quarter, Micron's current annual revenue is still lower than that of 2018. This is an industry-wide problem. As a competitor, SK Hynix's revenue also reached its peak in 2018. But given the strong growth trends underpinning the sector, and the various developments that have unfolded since 2018, investors have reason to imagine another record top line in the memory sector.</p><p>In addition, 75% of Micron's revenue comes from long-term agreements that work closely with customers, which is a significant improvement from 10% five years ago. In addition, in the era of enterprise integration in the memory industry, it will bring more bargaining power and less risk of oversupply to companies, and Micron can get the support of the federal government as part of the CHIPS Act (the bill to create beneficial incentives for chip production), which also seems to focus more on chip manufacturing than design (so it is unlikely to benefit Nvidia).</p><p>Recently, Micron began distributing Dividend, indicating management's confidence in their continued cash flow.</p><p><b>Risk</b></p><p>What needs to be explained by Tebi is that although Micron is likely to outperform Nvidia in the next few years, this does not mean that Nvidia's stock price will fall. A big company like Nvidia can maintain a high P/E for a long time, so shorting Nvidia is not a wise choice.</p><p>Similarly, Micron may ultimately underperform Nvidia for several reasons.</p><p>First, Micron's position in the market is not as strong as Nvidia's. While Micron's market position will improve, even so, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In comparison, although it is a market leader in low-power DRAM products, its market share is still relatively small. This may put some pressure on Micron to drive innovation through research and development or exercising pricing power.</p><p>On the other hand, Nvidia owns a large number of intellectual property rights, is the largest GPU manufacturer in the world, and it is also the manufacturer with the largest R&D budget. Both companies have benefited from multiple expansions. The difference is that Micron's current P/E is 14 times, which is a reasonable multiple for a cyclical company with revenue growth of more than 10%. Nvidia's current P/E of 93 times is also a reasonable multiple for a high-quality company that is expected to achieve revenue growth of more than 30% in the next few years. But both companies are likely to be impacted by market bad movements in the future, but Micron may not benefit as much from the P/E correction as Nvidia.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Micron and Nvidia are both good semiconductor companies, but Nvidia may be a better company in terms of market position and profit margins. If Nvidia's P/E drops back to between 40-50x, the stock will be more attractive to invest in.</p><p>Meanwhile, Micron is a company with growth potential, and its current stock price is also more reasonable.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e8aba7de194dc92d26747c1cfec057","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4566":"资本集团","NVDA":"英伟达","MU":"美光科技","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141749236","content_text":"作为半导体行业巨头的英伟达和美光，都受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。一方面，从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资产运营模式和市场领导地位使其更受投资者青睐。另一方面，美光的股价相对来说更便宜，因此或许是更好的投资选择。过去几年的牛市行情推动英伟达成为迄今为止市值最高的半导体公司。它是现今世界上第八大市值的公司，而在其他的半导体企业中，只有台积电(TSM.US)进入市值榜单的前25名。事实上，英伟达一直在玩一场“淘金先富卖铲人”（Picks and Shovels）的游戏(在过去在淘金热潮中，大多数想要成为矿主的淘金者都以失败告终，而那些向淘金者出售铁镐，铁铲，帐篷和牛仔裤的人却发了大财，这里可理解为投资于那些从高科技行业热潮中间接受益的非该行业的公司)。英伟达的GPU(图形处理器)在数据中心、加密货币挖矿和自动驾驶汽车等领域变得越来越重要，再加上Meta Platforms(FB.US)等公司都在加大在这些领域的投入，因此，广泛的需求导致英伟达的产品出现短缺，并推动了该公司股价走高。然而，英伟达的市盈率在2020年时曾跌至35倍，现在如今却接近100倍，这一市盈率远远高于其半导体同行。据了解，美光的市值为1040亿美元，市盈率为14倍，相比之下，美光的营收实际上超过了英伟达。在过去的12个月里，美光的营收达到277亿美元，而英伟达的营收为243亿美元。若美光拥有像英伟达那样的市盈率，其市值将达到7130亿美元，只比英伟达目前市值小5.6%。而从商业角度来看，这两家公司除了都设计半导体产品之外，并没有太多的相似业务。GPU市场份额英伟达专注于其GPU产品，截至2021年的第三季度，该公司拥有83%的GPU市场份额。NAND设备市场份额另一方面，美光的DRAM市场份额排在第三，而NAND市场份额上仅排在第五。而与英伟达不同的是，美光除了设计芯片外，在知识产权方面似乎并没有明显的优势。据了解，DRAM和NAND是两种存储芯片。而GPU则专注于快速执行大量操作，而内存芯片专注于存储大量信息。而内存芯片与GPU一起使用，因此并不构成与GPU的直接竞争。美光与英伟达在各种产品上进行合作，这将使两家公司受益。此外，两家公司都强调了在人工智能、5G、物联网、游戏、工业、区块链、元宇宙和汽车等领域开展研究，以推动公司未来的增长。英伟达未来的增长预期根据目前分析师对英伟达未来两年营收和利润的预测，其盈利复合年均增长率将达到16-18%。而从2005年到2020年，英伟达的营收以12%的复合年均增长率增长。若将2021年的历史业绩考虑进去，其复合年均增长率将达到14%。因此，相对于历史水平，在经济增速将略有提高的预测背景下，预计该公司的营收增长率将继续提高，是合理的。这种增长水平远高于行业的平均水平。据了解，自2008年以来，博通(AVGO.US)作为唯一一家营收复合年均增长率超过15%的大型半导体公司，是首个通过收购突破这一门槛的公司。著名投资者彼得•林奇(Peter Lynch)曾对任何增长速度超过20%的公司都持怀疑态度，因为维持这种增长是很困难的。半导体行业也没有例外，这也侧面证明该理论的正确性。英伟达在2021年的市盈率接近100倍，而且该公司的营收基数也是有史以来最大的，因此它很难维持住高营收增长的趋势。然而，英伟达的复合年增长率必须远远高于18%，才能证明其估值的合理性，因为18%的增长率将使其PEG指标(市盈率相对盈利增长比率)高于5。而如果英伟达能实现其预期的增长，其预期市盈率将为49倍。同样值得注意的是，半导体业务的营收是颇具周期性，所以这并不是英伟达第一次经历强劲增长。在2008年和2018年，英伟达的营收增长率都达到了34%，但这两年份的后一年，其增长率分别骤降至-16%和21%。而另一方面，英伟达在2021年还受益于加密货币热潮。但该公司曾表示，加密货币的需求对营收的影响究竟有多大，目前还不得而知。据了解，其产品一直被用于挖掘比特币。虽然目前尚未能证明在2022年里，比特币将走低。但其他包括以太坊在内的替代币正逐渐抢夺比特币在加密货币市场的份额。而由于其他替代币并不需要太多的算力，因此他们并不需要过多的用到英伟达的GPU产品。但美光并不会受到替代币的影响，并有可能能从中分一杯羹，这主要由于矿工需要大量电力和大量内存。市场目前更多的看法是，英伟达受益于与挖矿业务相关的GPU短缺，而如果比特币价格出现崩盘，这可能会对英伟达的股票造成负面影响。英伟达当然不会只专注于加密货币的业务，因为这对公司来说会产生不利的影响。而事实上，该公司在其他领域的业务营收也在快速增长:其他领域的营收增长率同样，这些领域都有着巨大的增长潜力，这可能会成为推动英伟达在未来几年营收继续快速增长的因素。美光未来的增长预期在成长性方面，美光也毫不逊色。从2005年到2020年，该公司的营收年均复合增长率为10%(相比之下，英伟达的年均复合增长率为12%)。据美光称，在过去20年里，存储器一直是半导体领域里增长最快的子领域。美光在各领域的营收增长率美光对细分市场的划分与英伟达稍有不同，但它的很多细分业务也都在快速增长。另外，该公司也在强调许多可以推动公司营收增长的业务。特别是，今年该公司预计其在物联网业务上的营收增长率将达到80%，公司还预计在未来三年，其与汽车相关的业务营收的复合年增长率为40-50%。美光预计的每股盈利增长的前提是基于其预测的16%的营收增长，而这似乎是一个可以实现的目标，因为该增长率仅略高于其营收的历史增长率。理想情况下，一项投资应该基于合理的盈利预期来进行公平估值，这样一来，一家公司的估值就不会大幅超出预期，也就更有机会获得强劲的回报。有观点认为美光的增长预期是可以实现的另一个原因是，它们所处的供需周期有利于该公司。我们可以了解到，尽管同行--英伟达的营收每个季度都在打破纪录，但美光目前的年度营收仍低于2018年。而这是一个全行业的问题，作为竞争对手SK海力士的营收也在2018年达到顶峰。但考虑到支撑该行业的强劲增长趋势，以及自2018年以来各种事态的发展，投资者有理由想象内存行业的营收将再创历史新高。此外，美光有75%的营收来自与客户密切合作的长期协议，这与五年前的10%相比，有了大大的提升。另外，在内存行业已开启企业整合的时代，会给各公司带来更多的议价能力以及更少的供应过剩风险，而且作为CHIPS法案（为芯片生产创造有益的激励措施法案）的一部分，美光可以获得联邦政府的支持，该法案也似乎更关注于芯片的制造而不是设计(因此不太可能惠及英伟达)。最近，美光开始派发股息，这表明管理层对他们的持续现金流的有信心。风险需要特比说明的是虽然美光未来几年的表现很可能会超过英伟达，但这并不意味英伟达的股价将会下跌。像英伟达这样的大公司可以在很长一段时间内保持较高的市盈率，因此做空英伟达并不是明智的选择。同样，美光最终的表现也可能会逊于英伟达，其原因有几个。首先，美光在市场的地位并不如英伟达强大。虽然美光的市场地位会有所改善，但即便如此，与三星相比，尽管它在低功耗DRAM产品方面处于市场领先地位，但其市场份额仍相对较小。这可能会对美光通过研发或行使定价权来推动创新构成一定的压力。而另一方面，英伟达拥有大量的知识产权，是全球最大的GPU厂商，也是研发预算最多的厂商。两家公司都曾从多次的扩张中获益。而不同之处在于，美光目前的市盈率为14倍，对于一家营收增速达10%以上的周期性公司来说，这是一个合理的倍数。而英伟达目前93倍的市盈率，对于一家未来几年有望实现30%以上的营收增长的高质量公司来说，也是一个合理的倍数。但这两家公司未来都可能受到市场坏境变动的影响，但美光在市盈率的调整中获得的好处可能并不如英伟达多。总结美光和英伟达都是不错的半导体公司，但就市场地位和利润率而言，英伟达可能是一家更好的公司。如果英伟达的市盈率回落至40-50倍之间，那么该股会更具投资吸引力。与此同时，美光是一家有着增长潜力的公司，其目前的股价也更为合理。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
