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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4096717876919280","uuid":"4096717876919280","gmtCreate":1633614811277,"gmtModify":1640272764311,"name":"乖兔兔宝宝","pinyin":"gttbbguaitutubaobao","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298a4afda1dc05d168dd5762efcdd9be","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":6,"tweetSize":2,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":2,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[],"userBadgeCount":0,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[],"hots":[{"id":687293432,"gmtCreate":1660993276328,"gmtModify":1676536756990,"author":{"id":"4096717876919280","authorId":"4096717876919280","name":"乖兔兔宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298a4afda1dc05d168dd5762efcdd9be","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096717876919280","idStr":"4096717876919280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"(•̀⌄•́)","listText":"(•̀⌄•́)","text":"(•̀⌄•́)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687293432","repostId":"1148070609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148070609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1660831194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148070609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-18 21:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the rebound of U.S. stocks: Quantitative funds close short positions and will rise for another 100 days?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148070609","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Quantitative funds changed their stance \"quickly and calmly\" and seized the opportunity of a \"very bear market\" with lightning speed. After the worst first half ever, U.S. stocks started rebound mode in the second half of the year. Since July, the Nasdaq Composite is up nearly 17% and the S&P 500 is up nearly 13%.</p><p>Behind the rebound of U.S. stocks, it highlights the gradual dissipation of investors' pessimism. Previously, quantitative funds that shorted U.S. stocks on a large scale quickly closed their short positions and then turned to go long.</p><p>In this regard, Nomura's strategist Charlie McElligott said,<b>Quantitative funds changed their stance \"quickly and calmly\" and seized the opportunity of a \"very bear market\" with lightning speed.</b></p><p><b>Quantitative funds swiftly turn</b></p><p>Nomura estimates that since the market hit a low in late June, trend-following hedge funds and volatility control funds have bought $107 billion in global equity futures, a significant portion of which has been used to close out short positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>\"With positions largely low and a lot of cash [holders] on the sidelines, more and more money is flowing back into the market as the market stabilizes and begins to rebound,\" said Glenn Koh, head of equities trading.</p><p>According to a previous article on Wall Street News, in July, the quantitative trading strategy CTA lifted about $100 billion of bets on bearish stocks and bonds, pushing U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to recover from the worst first half in history.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Commodity dealers (CTAs) trading long and short in the futures market closed out short positions they had built in the past few months, and by the end of July their overall exposure was at neutral levels for the first time since March, according to estimates.</p><p>However, as the risk of recession intensifies, how long can this long stay?</p><p><b>100 days?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Long is likely to continue, analysts say. The agency told its hedge fund clients last week that low-volatility-seeking funds and risk-parity funds are buying around $2 billion to $4 billion worth of shares a day. The bank estimates that if volatility remains low, such long \"<b>May last another 100 days</b>”。</p><p>JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic said the rally has touched most corners of the market. In the past 50 days,<b>About 88% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above average, much higher than 2% in mid-June</b>。 Kolanovic says:</p><p>\"Strong engagement indicates that this rally is durable and another sign of receding risk at the tail end of the market.\"\"Funds pursuing low volatility will increase overall exposure, particularly stocks.\" Fund managers are more optimistic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Portfolio managers are \"no longer as pessimistic as the end of the world,\" strategist Michael Hartnett said after polling them this month.</p><p><b>How long can US stocks support under the Fed's aggressive rate hike?</b></p><p>It depends in part on the magnitude of the Fed's next rate hike. Federal Reserve officials have warned that the rate hike will continue and may keep interest rates above traders' expectations. Separately, rising inflation and recession may continue to hit the market.</p><p>This also explains why this rise in U.S. stocks was not led by traditional fund managers and long-short equity hedge funds, but driven by quantitative funds.</p><p>\"You're going to see some shorting,\" said Mike Lewis, head of U.S. cash equity trading at Barclays.</p><p>Bridgewater Fund believes that at present, US stocks are in a long-term and widespread stagflation environment, and US stocks are obviously not ready for a low-growth environment. The agency believes that to bring inflation down to the Fed's target level, its monetary policy must be strong enough to push the U.S. economy into recession. What this means for the market is self-evident.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the good performance of many US listed companies is precisely due to the high returns brought by high inflation, and with the decline of inflation, the profits of many companies will also decline, and their performance will be worse than market expectations. The bank's Mike Wilson team said:</p><p>“<b>The next round of U.S. stock declines may have to wait until September</b>, when our negative operating leverage theory will be more reflected in the earnings forecast. However, due to the overvaluation of U.S. stocks, we think the best part of the rally is over. \"</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the rebound of U.S. stocks: Quantitative funds close short positions and will rise for another 100 days?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the rebound of U.S. stocks: Quantitative funds close short positions and will rise for another 100 days?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-18 21:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Quantitative funds changed their stance \"quickly and calmly\" and seized the opportunity of a \"very bear market\" with lightning speed. After the worst first half ever, U.S. stocks started rebound mode in the second half of the year. Since July, the Nasdaq Composite is up nearly 17% and the S&P 500 is up nearly 13%.</p><p>Behind the rebound of U.S. stocks, it highlights the gradual dissipation of investors' pessimism. Previously, quantitative funds that shorted U.S. stocks on a large scale quickly closed their short positions and then turned to go long.</p><p>In this regard, Nomura's strategist Charlie McElligott said,<b>Quantitative funds changed their stance \"quickly and calmly\" and seized the opportunity of a \"very bear market\" with lightning speed.</b></p><p><b>Quantitative funds swiftly turn</b></p><p>Nomura estimates that since the market hit a low in late June, trend-following hedge funds and volatility control funds have bought $107 billion in global equity futures, a significant portion of which has been used to close out short positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>\"With positions largely low and a lot of cash [holders] on the sidelines, more and more money is flowing back into the market as the market stabilizes and begins to rebound,\" said Glenn Koh, head of equities trading.</p><p>According to a previous article on Wall Street News, in July, the quantitative trading strategy CTA lifted about $100 billion of bets on bearish stocks and bonds, pushing U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to recover from the worst first half in history.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Commodity dealers (CTAs) trading long and short in the futures market closed out short positions they had built in the past few months, and by the end of July their overall exposure was at neutral levels for the first time since March, according to estimates.</p><p>However, as the risk of recession intensifies, how long can this long stay?</p><p><b>100 days?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Long is likely to continue, analysts say. The agency told its hedge fund clients last week that low-volatility-seeking funds and risk-parity funds are buying around $2 billion to $4 billion worth of shares a day. The bank estimates that if volatility remains low, such long \"<b>May last another 100 days</b>”。</p><p>JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic said the rally has touched most corners of the market. In the past 50 days,<b>About 88% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above average, much higher than 2% in mid-June</b>。 Kolanovic says:</p><p>\"Strong engagement indicates that this rally is durable and another sign of receding risk at the tail end of the market.\"\"Funds pursuing low volatility will increase overall exposure, particularly stocks.\" Fund managers are more optimistic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Portfolio managers are \"no longer as pessimistic as the end of the world,\" strategist Michael Hartnett said after polling them this month.</p><p><b>How long can US stocks support under the Fed's aggressive rate hike?</b></p><p>It depends in part on the magnitude of the Fed's next rate hike. Federal Reserve officials have warned that the rate hike will continue and may keep interest rates above traders' expectations. Separately, rising inflation and recession may continue to hit the market.</p><p>This also explains why this rise in U.S. stocks was not led by traditional fund managers and long-short equity hedge funds, but driven by quantitative funds.</p><p>\"You're going to see some shorting,\" said Mike Lewis, head of U.S. cash equity trading at Barclays.</p><p>Bridgewater Fund believes that at present, US stocks are in a long-term and widespread stagflation environment, and US stocks are obviously not ready for a low-growth environment. The agency believes that to bring inflation down to the Fed's target level, its monetary policy must be strong enough to push the U.S. economy into recession. What this means for the market is self-evident.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the good performance of many US listed companies is precisely due to the high returns brought by high inflation, and with the decline of inflation, the profits of many companies will also decline, and their performance will be worse than market expectations. The bank's Mike Wilson team said:</p><p>“<b>The next round of U.S. stock declines may have to wait until September</b>, when our negative operating leverage theory will be more reflected in the earnings forecast. However, due to the overvaluation of U.S. stocks, we think the best part of the rally is over. \"</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148070609","content_text":"量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。在经历有史以来最糟糕的上半年之后，美股在下半年开启了反弹模式。自7月以来，纳斯达克综指上涨了近17%，标普500指数上涨了近13%。美股反弹的背后，凸显了投资者悲观情绪的逐渐消散，此前大规模做空美股的量化基金迅速关闭空仓，然后转为做多。对此，野村的策略师Charlie McElligott表示，量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。量化基金迅速转向野村估计，自6月底市场触及低点以来，趋势跟踪对冲基金和波动控制基金已经购买了1070亿美元的全球股票期货，其中很大一部分用于平仓空头头寸。美国银行股票交易主管Glenn Koh表示：“由于仓位基本处于低位，大量现金（持有者）在场外观望，因此随着市场企稳并开始反弹，越来越多的资金流回了市场。”据华尔街见闻此前文章介绍，7月份，量化交易策略CTA解除了约1000亿美元看跌股票和债券的押注，推动美股和美债从史上最糟糕的上半年中开始复苏。根据摩根大通的估计，在期货市场进行多空双向交易的商品交易商（CTA）纷纷平掉了他们在过去几个月里建立的空头仓位，到7月底，他们的整体敞口自3月份以来首次处于中性水平。然而，随着衰退风险加剧，这种做多还能维持多久？100天？摩根大通分析师表示，做多可能会继续。该机构上周告诉其对冲基金客户，追求低波动的基金和风险平价基金每天购买价值约20亿至40亿美元的股票。该行估计，如果波动性保持在低水平，此类做多 “可能会再持续100天”。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，涨势已经触及市场的大部分角落。过去50天，标普500指数成分股中约有88%的交易价格高于平均水平，该比例远远高于6月中旬的2%。Kolanovic说：“强劲的参与度表明这次反弹是持久的，也是市场尾部风险消退的另一个表现。”“追求低波动的基金将增加整体风险敞口，尤其是股票。”基金经理则更加乐观。美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett本月对投资组合经理进行民意调查后表示，他们“不再像世界末日一样悲观”。美联储激进加息下，美股能支持多久？这在一定程度上取决于美联储接下来的加息幅度。美联储官员曾警告称，将会继续加息并可能将利率维持在交易员预期的上方。另外，通胀加剧和经济衰退也可能继续冲击市场。这也解释了为什么此次美股上涨不是由传统的基金经理和多空股票对冲基金引领，而是由量化基金驱动。巴克莱美国现金股票交易主管Mike Lewis表示：“你会看到一些人做空。”桥水基金认为，当前美股处在一个长期、广泛的滞胀环境中，美股显然还没为一个低增长的环境做好准备。该机构认为，要将通胀降至美联储的目标水平，其货币政策的力度必须大到将美国经济推入衰退。这对市场的意义不言而喻。摩根士丹利则认为，很多美股上市公司表现好恰恰是由于高通胀带来的高收益，而随着通胀下行，很多公司的利润也将下行，其表现将逊于市场预期。该行的Mike Wilson团队表示：“下一轮美股下跌可能要等到9月，届时我们的负经营杠杆理论将更多地反映在盈利预测中。然而，由于美股估值过高，我们认为涨势最好的部分已经结束。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
