Tonykhoo personal page - To The Moon

Tonykhoo

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01-30 20:46

RIP. You will lose a lot of money.

Palantir: 3 Reasons To Short The Stock

01-16

This guy hoping for Palantir price to drop then he Quietly buy back . Scammer

Palantir: Great Business At A Wrong Price - I Sold My Shares

2024-12-05

Yields will continue to improve and will top estimates.

Nvidia's Pullback: The Calm Before Takeoff

2024-12-05

Palantir will continue to soar to 100+. Don't listen to this kind of useless analyst

Palantir Technologies: Taking Profits Makes Sense (Rating Downgrade)

2024-12-05

They should use Palantir

Grab Holdings Chooses Amazon Web Services as Preferred Cloud Provider

2024-11-20

This guy has zero credibility. He shld go work in the gas station. He is full of that

Is Palantir Stock in Trouble? Jefferies Predicts a 60% Crash

2024-11-20

These are the same analyst who said it was too ex when the stock was right below $30. I am 318% up now. Holding 20k stocks

Cathie Wood Is Selling Palantir Stock. Here's Why That Makes Sense

2024-10-25

This guy is not trustworthy. He shld shut up

Apple Cuts Back iPhone Orders. Why Demand Fears Are Mounting

2024-09-20

Isnt HK = China ?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-08-20

This guy talk nonsense. Sore loser

Palantir: Don't Follow It Off The Cliff, Overpriced Generative AI Story

2024-07-16

No brain analyst

Palantir Slips 3% Following Ratings Downgrade from Mizuho

2024-04-30

Well fargo cannot be trusted

Tesla's Big Rally on China Developments Is Called Overdone by Wells Fargo

2024-03-14

Holding on to 13.5k since $15

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-11-23

Sore loser

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-07-20

The author does not have any credibility

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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You will lose a lot of money.&nbsp;","listText":"RIP. You will lose a lot of money.&nbsp;","text":"RIP. You will lose a lot of money.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398196983173248","repostId":"1105965404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105965404","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738239194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105965404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-30 20:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons To Short The Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105965404","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's stock is detached from reality as it trades at an irrationally exuberant price.The rise of macroeconomic risks makes it possible for the company to lose its growth momentum and for t","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3752926401\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir&#39;s stock is detached from reality as it trades at an irrationally exuberant price.</p></li><li><p>The rise of macroeconomic risks makes it possible for the company to lose its growth momentum and for the stock to decrease in value.</p></li><li><p>We have recently opened a short position in PLTR.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/554bfffe59edb9acf6bf12d15a231da8\" alt=\"Palantir Technologies\" title=\"Palantir Technologies\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Palantir Technologies</span></p><p>We recently opened a short position in Palantir as we believe that the downside for its stock is significant. Last year we closed our previous short position at a loss and said in our latest article that while Palantir is greatly overvalued, we would wait for the right time to reopen the position. It was the right call to make, since Palantir&#39;s stock is currently up over 15% after our latest article was published.</p><p>However, we also believe that the time to act again has come. In this article, we will present three major reasons why we&#39;re shorting Palantir, the risks to our short position, and our action plan under different scenarios.</p><h2 id=\"id_3785883\">Reason To Short Palantir #1: The Stock Price Is Detached From Reality</h2><p>If we look closely at the performance of Palantir&#39;s stock in 2024, we will see that its rise in the second half of the year was fueled by positive Q2 and Q3 earnings reports. First, Palantir increased in the Q2 report its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 to between $2.742 and $2.750 billion in August, which helped its stock rise above $30 per share for the first time since 2021. Then, in the Q3 report, the company once again increased its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 to between $2.805 and $2.809 billion, which translates to a Y/Y growth rate of nearly 26%.</p><p>As the annual revenue outlook has been increased by around $60 million in the Q3 report in comparison to the outlook in the Q2 report, the market has positively reacted to it and helped Palantir to increase its market capitalization by over $50 billion in a few months. Right now, Palantir has a market capitalization of around $180 billion at the time of this writing.</p><p>Although Palantir&#39;s performance has been impressive in the last year, we don&#39;t believe that the performance justifies such an aggressive increase in capitalization. As of now, Palantir has a P/E of over 200x, while the sector has a P/E of only 26x. The current P/E of the S&amp;P 500 Index is only 28x. Those multiples show that Palantir&#39;s stock is detached from reality.</p><p>The combination of all of those factors makes Palantir an extremely overvalued company. In our previous article, we created a valuation model with pretty optimistic assumptions to see how big Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value could be under one of the most bullish scenarios. That model showed that Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value is only $23.27 per share.</p><p>We decided to take a step further and change some of the assumptions in this article to truly figure out Palantir&#39;s full potential to make sure that even under the most extreme assumptions, the upside for its stock at the current market price is not there.</p><p>The assumptions table below underwent several changes in comparison to the previous model. One of the most important things that we did in comparison to the previous model is we changed the tax rate in our model from 21% to 15%. The 21% rate is the current standard corporate rate in the United States. However, the potential tax reform under the Trump administration could decrease the tax rate to only 15%. Since our model includes pretty bullish assumptions, we decided to use the 15% for now.</p><p>We also slightly changed the assumptions in the tables that calculate the discount rate. We updated the risk-free rate in our cost of equity calculation because of the rising treasury yields and changed the market cap, which increased since the release of our latest article.</p><p>The share price in the entry data table has also been updated. Everything else remained the same as in the last article.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5f3850d207fc775c3328cd2d1dd4489\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</span></p><p>In the forecast table below, we assume a 30% sales growth rate in FY24. This is the same rate as in the previous model. It is also above the management&#39;s current expectations of ~26%, but there&#39;s a possibility that Palantir will exceed expectations in Q4, which would result in higher sales for the year. For all the other years in the forecast table, we assume a gradual improvement in sales. This is above the overall expectations of a less than 25% growth rate in the following years, but it will help us understand Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value under the most extreme assumptions.</p><p>The EBIT margin remained the same as in the last model, and the tax rate decreased to 15%. The bottom part of the forecast table is mostly unchanged from our recent model.</p><p>Under those assumptions, our model shows that Palantir&#39;s enterprise value is $61.2 billion. At the same time, its equity value is $65.78 billion, which translates to an intrinsic value of $26.74 per share. While our improved assumptions led to the higher intrinsic value, we can still see that Palantir is extremely overvalued, and its current stock price is detached from reality.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3188adefb59abbb65b3ad9d7bbf1a5a\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3342679600\">Reason To Short Palantir #2: The Macro Risks Are Increasing</h2><p>The potential worsening of the macroeconomic environment is another thing that can push Palantir&#39;s share price lower. In 2022, when inflation was rampant, the stock market was not performing well and Palantir&#39;s shares were traded mostly at single digits. At the beginning of 2023, the disinflationary process began, which helped revive the stock market growth and improve the economic forecasts. While the disinflationary process has been ongoing to this day, there&#39;s a risk that we could experience a return to the inflationary environment. Here&#39;s what the December Fed minutes stated:</p><blockquote><p><em>With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation,</em> <strong><em>and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated.</em></strong></p></blockquote><p>The potential policy changes likely mean the implementation of Trump&#39;s tariffs, which are expected to be imposed on February 1 on goods from various countries that trade with the United States. The tariffs over the long term might lead to the revival of inflation and once again prompt the Federal Reserve to enact a more hawkish policy that would likely diminish the growth outlook. This could negatively affect Palantir&#39;s outlook and lead to the depreciation of its stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_318610859\">Reason To Short Palantir #3: The Stock Is Losing Its Momentum</h2><p>Relying solely on fundamentals is not the way to go in the current market environment. In our latest article on Palantir, we said that the company is already extremely overvalued, but decided not to open a short position at that time because the stock has been experiencing an upward trend.</p><p>However, recently, Palantir&#39;s stock began to lose its momentum, which was a signal for us to act. Right now, the stock is range-bound between $60 and $85 per share. It failed to break the resistance level around $85 per share and reach new highs a couple of times already, as the selling of shares has been intense around that level.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aff7c2b152314d29b766791eac7a2755\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s stock price (Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s stock price (Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s stock price (Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p>If Palantir&#39;s stock once again fails to break the current resistance level in the foreseeable future, then we could expect a depreciation to its support level at around $60 per share, which already happened a couple of weeks ago. If the support level at around $60 per share is broken, then there&#39;s a possibility of a selloff to the next support level at around $40 per share. If that happens, we will be covering our position during the depreciation to realize a profit.</p><p>If Palantir&#39;s stock manages to overcome the resistance level that&#39;s around $85 per share, then the stock will reach another all-time high and will look for a new resistance level. We committed less than 5% of our portfolio to this short position, so we would have enough room to wait for the stock to find that new resistance level and figure out our next move. Our stop loss is above $100 per share.</p><h2 id=\"id_4151814212\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>On February 3, Palantir will release its Q4 earnings report. There&#39;s a possibility that the company will exceed its annual outlook that was presented in the Q3 report and will also provide an outlook for 2025 that&#39;s much higher than the current street consensus. If that&#39;s the case, then we might see a further rise in share price, as it happened after the release of Q2 and Q3 reports last year.</p><p>The macro risks might also subside if the global economy manages to overcome the tariffs and trade war risks. The latest report by the OECD forecasts a global GDP growth rate of 3.3% in 2025.</p><p>As such, the potential better outlook along with a possible better macroeconomic environment could once again give a boost to Palantir&#39;s shares and undermine our bearish thesis.</p><h2 id=\"id_3793310222\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>In our opinion, the combination of weak fundamentals, rising macro risks, and a stock losing its momentum create a perfect opportunity to open a short position in Palantir. There&#39;s a risk to our short position if the fundamentals significantly improve or the macro challenges won&#39;t materialize and result in the appreciation of shares.</p><p>However, after weighing all the opportunities and risks, we believe that shorting Palantir makes sense at its current price, especially since the cost of borrowing its shares is less than 1%. The short position also represents less than 5% of our portfolio, which ensures that the risk of losing all of our capital is minimal in the worst-case scenario.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons To Short The Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons To Short The Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-30 20:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753204-palantir-3-reasons-to-short-the-pltr-stock><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's stock is detached from reality as it trades at an irrationally exuberant price.The rise of macroeconomic risks makes it possible for the company to lose its growth momentum and for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753204-palantir-3-reasons-to-short-the-pltr-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753204-palantir-3-reasons-to-short-the-pltr-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105965404","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's stock is detached from reality as it trades at an irrationally exuberant price.The rise of macroeconomic risks makes it possible for the company to lose its growth momentum and for the stock to decrease in value.We have recently opened a short position in PLTR.Palantir TechnologiesWe recently opened a short position in Palantir as we believe that the downside for its stock is significant. Last year we closed our previous short position at a loss and said in our latest article that while Palantir is greatly overvalued, we would wait for the right time to reopen the position. It was the right call to make, since Palantir's stock is currently up over 15% after our latest article was published.However, we also believe that the time to act again has come. In this article, we will present three major reasons why we're shorting Palantir, the risks to our short position, and our action plan under different scenarios.Reason To Short Palantir #1: The Stock Price Is Detached From RealityIf we look closely at the performance of Palantir's stock in 2024, we will see that its rise in the second half of the year was fueled by positive Q2 and Q3 earnings reports. First, Palantir increased in the Q2 report its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 to between $2.742 and $2.750 billion in August, which helped its stock rise above $30 per share for the first time since 2021. Then, in the Q3 report, the company once again increased its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 to between $2.805 and $2.809 billion, which translates to a Y/Y growth rate of nearly 26%.As the annual revenue outlook has been increased by around $60 million in the Q3 report in comparison to the outlook in the Q2 report, the market has positively reacted to it and helped Palantir to increase its market capitalization by over $50 billion in a few months. Right now, Palantir has a market capitalization of around $180 billion at the time of this writing.Although Palantir's performance has been impressive in the last year, we don't believe that the performance justifies such an aggressive increase in capitalization. As of now, Palantir has a P/E of over 200x, while the sector has a P/E of only 26x. The current P/E of the S&P 500 Index is only 28x. Those multiples show that Palantir's stock is detached from reality.The combination of all of those factors makes Palantir an extremely overvalued company. In our previous article, we created a valuation model with pretty optimistic assumptions to see how big Palantir's intrinsic value could be under one of the most bullish scenarios. That model showed that Palantir's intrinsic value is only $23.27 per share.We decided to take a step further and change some of the assumptions in this article to truly figure out Palantir's full potential to make sure that even under the most extreme assumptions, the upside for its stock at the current market price is not there.The assumptions table below underwent several changes in comparison to the previous model. One of the most important things that we did in comparison to the previous model is we changed the tax rate in our model from 21% to 15%. The 21% rate is the current standard corporate rate in the United States. However, the potential tax reform under the Trump administration could decrease the tax rate to only 15%. Since our model includes pretty bullish assumptions, we decided to use the 15% for now.We also slightly changed the assumptions in the tables that calculate the discount rate. We updated the risk-free rate in our cost of equity calculation because of the rising treasury yields and changed the market cap, which increased since the release of our latest article.The share price in the entry data table has also been updated. Everything else remained the same as in the last article.Palantir's valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)In the forecast table below, we assume a 30% sales growth rate in FY24. This is the same rate as in the previous model. It is also above the management's current expectations of ~26%, but there's a possibility that Palantir will exceed expectations in Q4, which would result in higher sales for the year. For all the other years in the forecast table, we assume a gradual improvement in sales. This is above the overall expectations of a less than 25% growth rate in the following years, but it will help us understand Palantir's intrinsic value under the most extreme assumptions.The EBIT margin remained the same as in the last model, and the tax rate decreased to 15%. The bottom part of the forecast table is mostly unchanged from our recent model.Under those assumptions, our model shows that Palantir's enterprise value is $61.2 billion. At the same time, its equity value is $65.78 billion, which translates to an intrinsic value of $26.74 per share. While our improved assumptions led to the higher intrinsic value, we can still see that Palantir is extremely overvalued, and its current stock price is detached from reality.Palantir's valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Reason To Short Palantir #2: The Macro Risks Are IncreasingThe potential worsening of the macroeconomic environment is another thing that can push Palantir's share price lower. In 2022, when inflation was rampant, the stock market was not performing well and Palantir's shares were traded mostly at single digits. At the beginning of 2023, the disinflationary process began, which helped revive the stock market growth and improve the economic forecasts. While the disinflationary process has been ongoing to this day, there's a risk that we could experience a return to the inflationary environment. Here's what the December Fed minutes stated:With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated.The potential policy changes likely mean the implementation of Trump's tariffs, which are expected to be imposed on February 1 on goods from various countries that trade with the United States. The tariffs over the long term might lead to the revival of inflation and once again prompt the Federal Reserve to enact a more hawkish policy that would likely diminish the growth outlook. This could negatively affect Palantir's outlook and lead to the depreciation of its stock.Reason To Short Palantir #3: The Stock Is Losing Its MomentumRelying solely on fundamentals is not the way to go in the current market environment. In our latest article on Palantir, we said that the company is already extremely overvalued, but decided not to open a short position at that time because the stock has been experiencing an upward trend.However, recently, Palantir's stock began to lose its momentum, which was a signal for us to act. Right now, the stock is range-bound between $60 and $85 per share. It failed to break the resistance level around $85 per share and reach new highs a couple of times already, as the selling of shares has been intense around that level.Palantir's stock price (Seeking Alpha)If Palantir's stock once again fails to break the current resistance level in the foreseeable future, then we could expect a depreciation to its support level at around $60 per share, which already happened a couple of weeks ago. If the support level at around $60 per share is broken, then there's a possibility of a selloff to the next support level at around $40 per share. If that happens, we will be covering our position during the depreciation to realize a profit.If Palantir's stock manages to overcome the resistance level that's around $85 per share, then the stock will reach another all-time high and will look for a new resistance level. We committed less than 5% of our portfolio to this short position, so we would have enough room to wait for the stock to find that new resistance level and figure out our next move. Our stop loss is above $100 per share.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisOn February 3, Palantir will release its Q4 earnings report. There's a possibility that the company will exceed its annual outlook that was presented in the Q3 report and will also provide an outlook for 2025 that's much higher than the current street consensus. If that's the case, then we might see a further rise in share price, as it happened after the release of Q2 and Q3 reports last year.The macro risks might also subside if the global economy manages to overcome the tariffs and trade war risks. The latest report by the OECD forecasts a global GDP growth rate of 3.3% in 2025.As such, the potential better outlook along with a possible better macroeconomic environment could once again give a boost to Palantir's shares and undermine our bearish thesis.Final ThoughtsIn our opinion, the combination of weak fundamentals, rising macro risks, and a stock losing its momentum create a perfect opportunity to open a short position in Palantir. There's a risk to our short position if the fundamentals significantly improve or the macro challenges won't materialize and result in the appreciation of shares.However, after weighing all the opportunities and risks, we believe that shorting Palantir makes sense at its current price, especially since the cost of borrowing its shares is less than 1%. The short position also represents less than 5% of our portfolio, which ensures that the risk of losing all of our capital is minimal in the worst-case scenario.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":393214330245512,"gmtCreate":1737037080689,"gmtModify":1737037964404,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy hoping for Palantir price to drop then he Quietly buy back . Scammer&nbsp;","listText":"This guy hoping for Palantir price to drop then he Quietly buy back . Scammer&nbsp;","text":"This guy hoping for Palantir price to drop then he Quietly buy back . Scammer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393214330245512","repostId":"1164318115","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164318115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737036000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164318115?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-16 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Great Business At A Wrong Price - I Sold My Shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164318115","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir is a leading player in monetizing the AI revolution, serving nearly 630 customers consisting of large public and commercial organisations globally (mainly in the US).Founded in 2003, t","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1395999078\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir is a leading player in monetizing the AI revolution, serving nearly 630 customers consisting of large public and commercial organisations globally (mainly in the US).</p></li><li><p>Founded in 2003, the Company initially focused on the public sector but has expanded to commercial sectors facing similar challenges.</p></li><li><p>PLTR reached a pivotal point early in 2023, when I first established my position, due to a successful deployment of the artificial intelligence platform showcasing tremendous cross-sell and growth potential.</p></li><li><p>Within this article, I explained my rationale behind selling all my shares at an average price of ~$75 per share despite the deep respect for Palantir&#39;s team and its achievements.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92d92135e0d8cd56b21f40d970084e15\" alt=\"bunhill\" title=\"bunhill\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>bunhill</span></p><p>Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) is an upcoming star and one of the best businesses when it comes to the capabilities of monetizing the AI revolution. Palantir serves mostly US customers (66% of revenue). During Q1-Q3 2024, it served nearly 630 customers (vs. 453 in the previous year).</p><p>Palantir was founded over 20 years ago (2003) with an aim to facilitate US counterterrorism operations. Since then, it&#39;s been focusing on the public sector and serves various government bodies across the world, but it has also expanded to the commercial sector within which large businesses often face similar struggles when it comes to data:</p><blockquote><p>For over a decade, Gotham has surfaced insights for global defense agencies, the intelligence community, disaster relief organizations and beyond. Foundry is becoming a central operating system not only for individual institutions but also for entire industries. Apollo, which we began offering as a commercial solution in 2021, is a cloud-agnostic, single control layer that coordinates ongoing delivery of new features, security updates, and platform configurations, helping to ensure the continuous operation of critical systems. Apollo allows our customers to run their software in virtually any environment.</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/893f2de122cd5efcf5893a7ce73380fd\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Over the first two years of PLTR&#39;s trading history, its market cap jumped as high as $60B, quickly retracted to ~$40–50B and later came crashing down to ~$15–20B range that lasted until Q1 2023. However...</p><h2 id=\"id_904035619\">Palantir Turned The Tables In 2023</h2><p>In 2023, Palantir joined forces with the ongoing and accelerating AI revolution driven by the likes of NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), OpenAI, Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), etc. However, the result of Palantir&#39;s involvement in the AI very much differs from the abovementioned entities.</p><p>While NVIDIA facilitates the revolution with its state-of-the-art hardware, META increases the performance of marketing campaigns on its platforms, and AMZN with MSFT integrates AI-driven solutions to their existing products (AWS or Azure / Copilot), Palantir expanded its product offering with another platform—Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP):</p><blockquote><p>AIP enables responsible AI-advantage across the enterprise by using primary, core components built to effectively activate LLMs and other AI within any organization. It provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial LLMs that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations&#39; actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. AIP can allow organizations to power operational use of AI and LLMs with interfaces for decision making, feedback, and safe hand-off among AI agents and human operators with wide-spectrum security and audit controls, which allow for granular control over model usage and integrated human review checkpoints throughout the workflows. AIP is designed to be seamlessly bundled with existing Palantir offerings such as the Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo platforms.</p></blockquote><p>The fact that AIP is easily integrated with Palantir&#39;s other platforms largely facilitated the deployment process and enabled cross-sell opportunities to its existing clients. With Palantir&#39;s sales &amp; marketing efforts oriented around discussions with its clients, the Company has always been solution-oriented and aimed its platforms to respond to specific challenges faced by government bodies/large enterprises. That approach was also adopted at the early deployment stages of AIP, as Palantir held boot camps related to AIP, so its customers could witness first-hand the solution they were waiting for. Especially as most of Palantir&#39;s customers are risk-averse, with several cases of investing millions (or billions in some instances) in solutions that were never adopted.</p><p>With the &#39;quite a successful&#39; adoption of AIP, many investors already saw their window of opportunity. Palantir was (and I believe still is) accompanied by outstanding value drivers, which I cannot stress enough:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A long-standing facilitation of public and commercial customers with increasing share of the commercial segment proves the top-tier quality of Palantir&#39;s platforms.</p></li><li><p>Palantir doesn&#39;t really have strong competitors and is far ahead of its &#39;peers&#39;.</p></li><li><p>Palantir showcased one of the most successful ways of monetizing the ongoing AI revolution.</p></li><li><p>Software-oriented business model, reflecting the scalability of its platforms across the dynamically increasing group of customers with high cross-sell and up-sell potential.</p></li></ul><p>The market recognised the abovementioned value drivers. I myself was lucky enough to establish a relatively large position in Palantir at an average cost of ~$10 per share during the first half of 2023. I made a few additions along the way, but I stopped increasing my position once the stock price exceeded $25 per share, as Palantir&#39;s share in my portfolio started to exceed my comfort level (I&#39;m a big advocate of diversification and saw too many ugly situations resulting from high concentration—whether in terms of portfolio or business performance).</p><p>When I was buying Palantir, I expected a solid upside and believed I would stick with the business for a long time. However, as its valuation recorded a completely outstanding growth in 2024, my primary assumption couldn&#39;t hold true—leading us to the next point.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b9994389a97250ba8ffd3d6aa1037ef\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3518363501\">This Week, I Sold All My Shares At ~$75 Per Share</h2><p>I feel it&#39;s appropriate to reserve a brief passage of my approach to investing to shed light on the rationale behind my exit from Palantir. I&#39;m an M&amp;A advisor (a fancy name for advising on buying and selling businesses) and an advocate of the timeless wisdom of investing legends such as Benjamin Graham or Warren Buffett. I tend to focus on the margin of safety, risk-to-reward profile, diversification, and often engage in income-producing businesses.</p><p>However, I&#39;m also a technological enthusiast with a particular interest in the ongoing AI revolution with established positions in leading players (MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, and until a few days ago... Palantir).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b3e6fdbaae97f86f240335ddb2693e1\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"704\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>To put it briefly, I lost comfort with holding on to Palantir at these prices. Its share in my portfolio reached a concerning level even though I stopped adding at the beginning of 2024.</p><p>It no longer provides investors with the margin of safety it used to, and I wouldn&#39;t feel comfortable with advising anybody on buying Palantir at these prices at the current stage of the business development. Before we jump to conclusions, let me state a few things.</p><p><strong>Yes</strong>, I believe Palantir is uniquely positioned to be a major technological player and has tremendous growth prospects ahead.</p><p><strong>No,</strong> I don&#39;t share the common belief that its growth is decelerating.</p><p><strong>However,</strong> even with upheld growth—I don&#39;t consider Palantir a $150B+ business (yet). It has quite a long way to go until it grows into its valuation. Please review the table and chart below, presenting Palantir&#39;s P/S ratio estimated through its current valuation and consensus sales estimated for the upcoming years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5426fecdf2b8d0a5e04c96f1cf43c065\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>Please note that the projected sales revenue growth is pretty much in line with Palantir&#39;s growth history during the last several quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8bc1b6d1f231160085205a5b36c70ad7\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s Q3 Earnings Presentation\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s Q3 Earnings Presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"161\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s Q3 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p>For reference, as some may expect higher growth in the upcoming years, let&#39;s assume the highest y/o/y growth ratio Palantir experienced as our base scenario for 2025 and beyond.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/249d080814bfeac0c6b7243cf59b548a\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>And now, let&#39;s take a look at some of the leaders in their respective fields, facilitating the AI revolution and the technological trends adopted worldwide: NVDA, MSFT, and META. Similarly, we took their current valuation and divided it by consensus sales estimates for the upcoming years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d8a68271dc55d4235578638b92f689d\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/><span>Author</span></p><p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> Even though the abovementioned businesses <em>DO NOT COMPARE</em> to Palantir and are at <em>VERY DIFFERENT GROWTH STAGES</em> as Palantir has a dynamic growth path ahead, I don&#39;t believe it justifies its current valuation—let&#39;s remember that each presented business holds leadership, well-established, and still growing position. Should Palantir deliver the expected growth metrics, it will certainly grow into its current valuation, but the place where the business is right now and the growth expectations set ahead don&#39;t leave much room for future upside from buying Palantir right now.</p><p>To put it frankly, I can&#39;t uphold a bullish outlook and expectations of meaningful upside potential for a business generating $2.8B in sales (even accounting for 20–30% growth prospects) valued at $150–160B.</p><p>I expect a downward movement from current levels and will certainly consider establishing my position once again, but for now—it was a time for me to take profits. I&#39;m aware of the large following of Palantir, and it doesn&#39;t surprise me—the business is set to record incredible performance in the upcoming years. However, business development is one thing and the price you pay for it is another.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/329c2429e2ecf3e8466feeda7e82ae6c\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"252\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>For further reference, Wall Street Analysts expect very limited upside potential with the highest price target of $80 per share, an average of $45 (implying over 32% downside risk), and the lowest one (completely detached from Palantir&#39;s potential in my view—overly pessimistic) at $11 per share.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82d7a1004c95483aabe93f1d4b37fc26\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>It&#39;s also worth mentioning that more bearish voices have been raised recently, with Ark Invest unloading over 196 thousand shares and Morgan Stanley (MS) initiating its coverage with a price target of $60 per share.</p><h2 id=\"id_26700235\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>For transparency, I first established my position in Palantir at the beginning of 2023. It was quite large, and after I added a few times, I stopped reinvesting once the stock price increased over $25 per share at the beginning of 2024 as Palantir&#39;s share in my portfolio started to exceed my comfort level. My final average cost basis amounted to ~$11.6 per share (including several additions) and this week, I decided to sell all my shares at ~$75 per share.</p><p>As Benjamin Graham likes to portray with its wonderful &#39;Mr Market&#39; metaphor, the market often gets overenthusiastic with dynamically growing businesses, leading to valuation detached from fundamentals and growth prospects.</p><p>With all the respect to Palantir&#39;s outstanding team capable of creating great platforms serving leading institutions and businesses globally and tremendous growth potential, I consider its valuation detached from fundamentals and growth prospects. Palantir still has much business development to achieve until it grows into its current ~$150–160B valuation. I will follow Palantir closely and look forward to establishing another position at a different stage of its development.</p><p>I recognise numerous authors and analysts expressing continuous optimism and appreciation of Palantir&#39;s achievements. I share the appreciation, but as &#39;each to their own&#39;—I can&#39;t share the expectations of the upside potential justifying the risk accompanying investing in any business generating ~2.8B of sales at over $150B valuation (even with 20–30% growth rates for the upcoming years).</p><h4 id=\"id_1997545293\">Other Considerations</h4><p>Please note that I haven&#39;t established a short position in Palantir. I sold my shares and currently have no position in the Company. Should you be willing to take a step further than selling your currently owned shares and short the stock, please keep in mind that it may require deep pockets and expose you to additional risk factors.</p><p>Regarding Palantir&#39;s devoted bulls, please keep in mind that the stock price volatility and overvaluation are not sole risk factors accompanying Palantir, as it also has exposure to:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Uncertainty regarding interest rate changes and their impact on the market as a whole.</p></li><li><p>Risk of other players entering the market and creating a competitive environment.</p></li><li><p>Uncertainty regarding the state of the economy and geopolitical tensions.</p></li><li><p>Risk of being unable to deliver solutions/updates/errors fixed in a timely and sufficient manner within the ever-changing technological space.</p></li></ul><p>Should you be willing to hold on to your shares or invest in Palantir—please make sure not to put all your eggs into one basket—diversification is key, especially within such volatile industries.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Great Business At A Wrong Price - I Sold My Shares\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-16 22:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749799-palantir-great-business-at-wrong-price-sold-my-shares><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir is a leading player in monetizing the AI revolution, serving nearly 630 customers consisting of large public and commercial organisations globally (mainly in the US).Founded in 2003, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749799-palantir-great-business-at-wrong-price-sold-my-shares\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749799-palantir-great-business-at-wrong-price-sold-my-shares","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164318115","content_text":"SummaryPalantir is a leading player in monetizing the AI revolution, serving nearly 630 customers consisting of large public and commercial organisations globally (mainly in the US).Founded in 2003, the Company initially focused on the public sector but has expanded to commercial sectors facing similar challenges.PLTR reached a pivotal point early in 2023, when I first established my position, due to a successful deployment of the artificial intelligence platform showcasing tremendous cross-sell and growth potential.Within this article, I explained my rationale behind selling all my shares at an average price of ~$75 per share despite the deep respect for Palantir's team and its achievements.bunhillPalantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) is an upcoming star and one of the best businesses when it comes to the capabilities of monetizing the AI revolution. Palantir serves mostly US customers (66% of revenue). During Q1-Q3 2024, it served nearly 630 customers (vs. 453 in the previous year).Palantir was founded over 20 years ago (2003) with an aim to facilitate US counterterrorism operations. Since then, it's been focusing on the public sector and serves various government bodies across the world, but it has also expanded to the commercial sector within which large businesses often face similar struggles when it comes to data:For over a decade, Gotham has surfaced insights for global defense agencies, the intelligence community, disaster relief organizations and beyond. Foundry is becoming a central operating system not only for individual institutions but also for entire industries. Apollo, which we began offering as a commercial solution in 2021, is a cloud-agnostic, single control layer that coordinates ongoing delivery of new features, security updates, and platform configurations, helping to ensure the continuous operation of critical systems. Apollo allows our customers to run their software in virtually any environment.Data by YChartsOver the first two years of PLTR's trading history, its market cap jumped as high as $60B, quickly retracted to ~$40–50B and later came crashing down to ~$15–20B range that lasted until Q1 2023. However...Palantir Turned The Tables In 2023In 2023, Palantir joined forces with the ongoing and accelerating AI revolution driven by the likes of NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), OpenAI, Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), etc. However, the result of Palantir's involvement in the AI very much differs from the abovementioned entities.While NVIDIA facilitates the revolution with its state-of-the-art hardware, META increases the performance of marketing campaigns on its platforms, and AMZN with MSFT integrates AI-driven solutions to their existing products (AWS or Azure / Copilot), Palantir expanded its product offering with another platform—Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP):AIP enables responsible AI-advantage across the enterprise by using primary, core components built to effectively activate LLMs and other AI within any organization. It provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial LLMs that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. AIP can allow organizations to power operational use of AI and LLMs with interfaces for decision making, feedback, and safe hand-off among AI agents and human operators with wide-spectrum security and audit controls, which allow for granular control over model usage and integrated human review checkpoints throughout the workflows. AIP is designed to be seamlessly bundled with existing Palantir offerings such as the Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo platforms.The fact that AIP is easily integrated with Palantir's other platforms largely facilitated the deployment process and enabled cross-sell opportunities to its existing clients. With Palantir's sales & marketing efforts oriented around discussions with its clients, the Company has always been solution-oriented and aimed its platforms to respond to specific challenges faced by government bodies/large enterprises. That approach was also adopted at the early deployment stages of AIP, as Palantir held boot camps related to AIP, so its customers could witness first-hand the solution they were waiting for. Especially as most of Palantir's customers are risk-averse, with several cases of investing millions (or billions in some instances) in solutions that were never adopted.With the 'quite a successful' adoption of AIP, many investors already saw their window of opportunity. Palantir was (and I believe still is) accompanied by outstanding value drivers, which I cannot stress enough:A long-standing facilitation of public and commercial customers with increasing share of the commercial segment proves the top-tier quality of Palantir's platforms.Palantir doesn't really have strong competitors and is far ahead of its 'peers'.Palantir showcased one of the most successful ways of monetizing the ongoing AI revolution.Software-oriented business model, reflecting the scalability of its platforms across the dynamically increasing group of customers with high cross-sell and up-sell potential.The market recognised the abovementioned value drivers. I myself was lucky enough to establish a relatively large position in Palantir at an average cost of ~$10 per share during the first half of 2023. I made a few additions along the way, but I stopped increasing my position once the stock price exceeded $25 per share, as Palantir's share in my portfolio started to exceed my comfort level (I'm a big advocate of diversification and saw too many ugly situations resulting from high concentration—whether in terms of portfolio or business performance).When I was buying Palantir, I expected a solid upside and believed I would stick with the business for a long time. However, as its valuation recorded a completely outstanding growth in 2024, my primary assumption couldn't hold true—leading us to the next point.Data by YChartsThis Week, I Sold All My Shares At ~$75 Per ShareI feel it's appropriate to reserve a brief passage of my approach to investing to shed light on the rationale behind my exit from Palantir. I'm an M&A advisor (a fancy name for advising on buying and selling businesses) and an advocate of the timeless wisdom of investing legends such as Benjamin Graham or Warren Buffett. I tend to focus on the margin of safety, risk-to-reward profile, diversification, and often engage in income-producing businesses.However, I'm also a technological enthusiast with a particular interest in the ongoing AI revolution with established positions in leading players (MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, and until a few days ago... Palantir).Seeking AlphaTo put it briefly, I lost comfort with holding on to Palantir at these prices. Its share in my portfolio reached a concerning level even though I stopped adding at the beginning of 2024.It no longer provides investors with the margin of safety it used to, and I wouldn't feel comfortable with advising anybody on buying Palantir at these prices at the current stage of the business development. Before we jump to conclusions, let me state a few things.Yes, I believe Palantir is uniquely positioned to be a major technological player and has tremendous growth prospects ahead.No, I don't share the common belief that its growth is decelerating.However, even with upheld growth—I don't consider Palantir a $150B+ business (yet). It has quite a long way to go until it grows into its valuation. Please review the table and chart below, presenting Palantir's P/S ratio estimated through its current valuation and consensus sales estimated for the upcoming years.AuthorPlease note that the projected sales revenue growth is pretty much in line with Palantir's growth history during the last several quarters.Palantir's Q3 Earnings PresentationFor reference, as some may expect higher growth in the upcoming years, let's assume the highest y/o/y growth ratio Palantir experienced as our base scenario for 2025 and beyond.AuthorAnd now, let's take a look at some of the leaders in their respective fields, facilitating the AI revolution and the technological trends adopted worldwide: NVDA, MSFT, and META. Similarly, we took their current valuation and divided it by consensus sales estimates for the upcoming years.AuthorConclusion: Even though the abovementioned businesses DO NOT COMPARE to Palantir and are at VERY DIFFERENT GROWTH STAGES as Palantir has a dynamic growth path ahead, I don't believe it justifies its current valuation—let's remember that each presented business holds leadership, well-established, and still growing position. Should Palantir deliver the expected growth metrics, it will certainly grow into its current valuation, but the place where the business is right now and the growth expectations set ahead don't leave much room for future upside from buying Palantir right now.To put it frankly, I can't uphold a bullish outlook and expectations of meaningful upside potential for a business generating $2.8B in sales (even accounting for 20–30% growth prospects) valued at $150–160B.I expect a downward movement from current levels and will certainly consider establishing my position once again, but for now—it was a time for me to take profits. I'm aware of the large following of Palantir, and it doesn't surprise me—the business is set to record incredible performance in the upcoming years. However, business development is one thing and the price you pay for it is another.Seeking AlphaFor further reference, Wall Street Analysts expect very limited upside potential with the highest price target of $80 per share, an average of $45 (implying over 32% downside risk), and the lowest one (completely detached from Palantir's potential in my view—overly pessimistic) at $11 per share.Seeking AlphaIt's also worth mentioning that more bearish voices have been raised recently, with Ark Invest unloading over 196 thousand shares and Morgan Stanley (MS) initiating its coverage with a price target of $60 per share.The Bottom LineFor transparency, I first established my position in Palantir at the beginning of 2023. It was quite large, and after I added a few times, I stopped reinvesting once the stock price increased over $25 per share at the beginning of 2024 as Palantir's share in my portfolio started to exceed my comfort level. My final average cost basis amounted to ~$11.6 per share (including several additions) and this week, I decided to sell all my shares at ~$75 per share.As Benjamin Graham likes to portray with its wonderful 'Mr Market' metaphor, the market often gets overenthusiastic with dynamically growing businesses, leading to valuation detached from fundamentals and growth prospects.With all the respect to Palantir's outstanding team capable of creating great platforms serving leading institutions and businesses globally and tremendous growth potential, I consider its valuation detached from fundamentals and growth prospects. Palantir still has much business development to achieve until it grows into its current ~$150–160B valuation. I will follow Palantir closely and look forward to establishing another position at a different stage of its development.I recognise numerous authors and analysts expressing continuous optimism and appreciation of Palantir's achievements. I share the appreciation, but as 'each to their own'—I can't share the expectations of the upside potential justifying the risk accompanying investing in any business generating ~2.8B of sales at over $150B valuation (even with 20–30% growth rates for the upcoming years).Other ConsiderationsPlease note that I haven't established a short position in Palantir. I sold my shares and currently have no position in the Company. Should you be willing to take a step further than selling your currently owned shares and short the stock, please keep in mind that it may require deep pockets and expose you to additional risk factors.Regarding Palantir's devoted bulls, please keep in mind that the stock price volatility and overvaluation are not sole risk factors accompanying Palantir, as it also has exposure to:Uncertainty regarding interest rate changes and their impact on the market as a whole.Risk of other players entering the market and creating a competitive environment.Uncertainty regarding the state of the economy and geopolitical tensions.Risk of being unable to deliver solutions/updates/errors fixed in a timely and sufficient manner within the ever-changing technological space.Should you be willing to hold on to your shares or invest in Palantir—please make sure not to put all your eggs into one basket—diversification is key, especially within such volatile industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4094001495024510","authorId":"4094001495024510","name":"Xingguo Li","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ff5843a1fff5ea4398d4fcd2beda32","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094001495024510","authorIdStr":"4094001495024510"},"content":"How do you know he quietly bought back?","text":"How do you know he quietly bought back?","html":"How do you know he quietly bought back?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378260590514504,"gmtCreate":1733391559110,"gmtModify":1733391563126,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yields will continue to improve and will top estimates.","listText":"Yields will continue to improve and will top estimates.","text":"Yields will continue to improve and will top estimates.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378260590514504","repostId":"1171018441","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171018441","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733379857,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171018441?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-05 14:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Pullback: The Calm Before Takeoff","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171018441","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia’s Data Center revenue soared 112% YoY in Q3 FY2025, hitting $30.8 billion, driven by Hopper GPUs.Blackwell ramp-up reduced gross margins to the low 70s, signaling near-term profitability","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2518164054\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia’s Data Center revenue soared 112% YoY in Q3 FY2025, hitting $30.8 billion, driven by Hopper GPUs.</p></li><li><p>Blackwell ramp-up reduced gross margins to the low 70s, signaling near-term profitability challenges but long-term stability.</p></li><li><p>Revenue diversification across India and Japan counters U.S.-China tensions, doubling regional cloud revenue YoY.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs deliver record efficiency, cutting compute costs by 4x and driving adoption.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia’s stock consolidation sets the stage for a bullish breakout, targeting a $204 price level.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2382634154\">Investment Thesis</h2><p>Since our last coverage, we anticipated Nvidia’s strong Q3 FY2025 results would fuel another bullish run. While Nvidia delivered an earnings beat, with Data Center revenue up 112% YoY to $30.8 billion driven by Hopper H200 GPUs and rising AI workloads, the stock has pulled back due to several factors.</p><p>Near-term gross margin compression from the Blackwell ramp, geopolitical risks from U.S.-China tensions, and market skepticism over AI growth sustainability have weighed on sentiment. Concerns over enterprise digestion phases for AI investments and reliance on China despite regional diversification also contributed. While Nvidia’s long-term outlook remains robust, these headwinds have tempered investor optimism, driving the stock’s decline.</p><p>However, we believe this pullback is a healthy consolidation phase, providing the stock with a necessary pause to absorb its recent gains and establish a stronger support base. This period of stabilization is crucial before Nvidia can build momentum for another bullish breakout toward our $204 technical price target, driven by the sustained demand for AI infrastructure and its robust market leadership.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c66ab1443d3f34ac4303614fa250b332\" alt=\"Yiazou (trendspider.com)\" title=\"Yiazou (trendspider.com)\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"700\"/><span>Yiazou (trendspider.com)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1185090237\">High Demand for AI and Accelerated Computing</h2><p>Nvidia’s Data Center segment had a sequential rise of 17% and an impressive YoY increase of 112% in revenue for Q3 FY2025. From $3.8 billion in Q3 fiscal 2023 to $30.8 billion in Q3 fiscal 2025 (in just 2 years) points to an 8X boom in the segment performance. These revenue numbers are the primary driver of the company’s consolidated revenue. 65% of Nvidia’s revenue was derived from the data center segment in Q3 fiscal 2023, but now the segment contribution has hit 88%. The Hopper architecture (mostly the H200 GPU) holds for much of this growth.</p><p>Sequentially, H200 sales scaled to double-digit billions and marked the fastest ramp ever for Nvidia. Now, Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) contributed ~50% of the Data Center segment’s revenue, which is &gt;2X YoY and points to the scale of AI workloads demanded by cloud environments. Regionally, Nvidia saw a 2x YoY increase in its regional cloud revenue across North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific, reflecting its broad penetration that aligns with CSPs ramping their Nvidia GPU-backed cloud instances.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b23f1065599e5d892cf075ce3c0efb94\" alt=\"Q3 Presentation\" title=\"Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>Moreover, enterprise AI demand led to growth in specific areas (like multimodal and generative AI applications) extending Nvidia’s Data Center products. Blackwell’s launch may extend these trends in the upcoming quarters. Why? The initial performance of Blackwells attained a 2.2x leap against Hoppers and cost metrics points that GPT-3 benchmarks run on only ~64 Blackwell GPUs against ~256 H100s that reduce compute costs by 4x. As adoption scales, this cost-efficiency ratio solidifies Nvidia’s business edge in compute markets. Looking forward, $37.5 billion (~70% YoY) in Q4 revenue is based on continued demand for Hopper architecture and the initial ramping of Blackwell.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9332a08bc6266bcdf093f4bc1f369b9\" alt=\"Q3 Presentation\" title=\"Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"632\"/><span>Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>Regarding the concerns on China-specific Data Center revenue, it grew sequentially in Q3 but remained capped due to export controls.</p><blockquote><p>From a geographic perspective, our Data Center revenue in China grew sequentially due to shipments of export-compliant copper products to industries. As a percentage of total Data Center revenue, it <strong>remains well below</strong> levels prior to the onset of export controls. We expect the market in China to remain very competitive going forward.</p><p>Colette Kress, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Q3 2025 Earnings Call).</p></blockquote><p>Now, India has emerged as a potential counterbalance, with CSPs like Tata Communications and Infosys scaling deployments to ~10x GPU capacity within a year. Japan is also a vital growth market. Here, Nvidia’s partnership with SoftBank to build the country’s most powerful AI supercomputer reinforces its market lead in the Asia-Pacific region. These geographic expansions obviously minimize the risk of export restrictions that may intensify more under Trump 2.0. So, Nvidia is diversifying revenue sources across regions with less regulatory friction.</p><p>On the bottom-line, Nvidia’s gross margins of 75% non-GAAP reflect a stable cost structure despite rising OpEx due to Blackwell. The sequential uptick in GAAP operating expenses (+9%) is tied to higher development costs for new products (like Blackwell) pointing to reinvestment for prolonged capability. While demand for Blackwell products may temper margins slightly in the near term (low-70s), these will normalize to mid-70s with a full ramp-up. This continued top-line boom with +70% gross margins is good for the stock in terms of valuation.</p><p>Nvidia’s price-to-sales (PS) ratio stands at 30, near the average of 29.8 (since the AI wave, November 2022). This PS ratio underpins Nvidia’s revenue generation capability at a premium of 1,592.74%. The normalized price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55 is near the lowest level of 46.41 (since the AI wave, November 2022) while the stock offers a 1,744.91% premium on forward earnings. This disparity between current valuation and high growth premiums suggests a potential massive upside in upcoming quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/02192da94d6dd6c2f13b16762c9d42d8\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc0a066867866dfeacba675ecc03dc2a\" alt=\"seekingalpha.com\" title=\"seekingalpha.com\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"221\"/><span>seekingalpha.com</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/01645bc2e099890bc984a67c07ae18ae\" alt=\"seekingalpha.com\" title=\"seekingalpha.com\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"132\"/><span>seekingalpha.com</span></p><h2 id=\"id_262332301\">Scalability Concerns in Margin Pressures During Product Transitions</h2><p>Nvidia stock valuations, to some extent (based on the street sentiment), are dependent on the continued scalability of LLMs. There are three modes of LLM scaling for Nvidia—pre-training, post-training, and inference. Here, this dependence raises questions about the limits of scaling, as transitioning from 100K Hoppers to 100K Blackwells for foundation models may require rapid tech iteration with high CapEx cycles from clients again! Mag 7 (ex NVDA) is already under question for the ROI on AI investments. With a new cycle of Hopper to Blackwell replacement will create investor side concerns if the adoption of new scaling methods does not deliver proportional economic and operational benefits.</p><p>Additionally, as per the company, inference demand points to a growing installed base requiring upgrades but sustaining this demand assumes a constant appetite for AI-native services across enterprises. If industry enthusiasm for AI tapers and if enterprises face internal budget issues due to increasing bottom-line pressures, Nvidia’s infrastructure sales could encounter headwinds.</p><p>As Nvidia transitions from Hopper to Blackwell, gross margin pressure is a weak point. As the CFO projected, gross margins fell to the low 70s at the beginning of the Blackwell ramp, which is down from historically higher levels. The financial impact is critical. Why? First, this marks initial production inefficiencies and client onboarding for Blackwell systems. Further, mid-70s gross margins materialize in H2 2025. For the next quarters, the impact of this margin compression could be significant to dampen profitability (may result in earnings miss). The street may find it troubling as AMD (AMD) is closing the top-line growth gap and outpacing Nvidia in gross profit improvement since Q1 2024.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7afca75a72af71720284c0f9e50d433f\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Overall, Nvidia’s “trillion dollars of data center modernization” and “AI factories” assume a continuous upward demand. However, historical patterns in hardware deployment cycles suggest inevitable digestion phases, where clients pause to optimize and absorb CapEx. Nvidia’s projections may not account for these pauses as massive ROIs are also required for AI infrastructure. As Blackwell ramps, there is also the question of how long Nvidia can go on this pace before hitting saturation in major markets. The company assumes modernization will take several years but macro and geopolitical issues (Biden-Putin-Xi-Trump) can lead to reduced budgets and shifting priorities among enterprise clients and there will be a shift toward software-based optimizations that will for sure dilute demand for Nvidia’s hardware-centric products.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46a5eb060785a7b5feb96a44e620d587\" alt=\"Company Overview IR\" title=\"Company Overview IR\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"559\"/><span>Company Overview IR</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3191182317\">Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia’s recent pullback reflects short-term concerns over margin compression, geopolitical risks, and skepticism about the sustainability of AI-driven growth. However, the company’s exceptional Q3 results, driven by record Data Center performance and accelerating adoption of Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, underscore its leadership in the AI revolution. This consolidation phase is a healthy pause, setting the stage for future growth, as Nvidia remains well-positioned to capitalize on expanding AI infrastructure demand and its strong market foothold across diverse regions. With a $204 technical price target, the long-term investment case for Nvidia remains compelling.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Pullback: The Calm Before Takeoff</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Pullback: The Calm Before Takeoff\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-05 14:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742050-nvidias-pullback-the-calm-before-takeoff><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia’s Data Center revenue soared 112% YoY in Q3 FY2025, hitting $30.8 billion, driven by Hopper GPUs.Blackwell ramp-up reduced gross margins to the low 70s, signaling near-term profitability...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742050-nvidias-pullback-the-calm-before-takeoff\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742050-nvidias-pullback-the-calm-before-takeoff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171018441","content_text":"SummaryNvidia’s Data Center revenue soared 112% YoY in Q3 FY2025, hitting $30.8 billion, driven by Hopper GPUs.Blackwell ramp-up reduced gross margins to the low 70s, signaling near-term profitability challenges but long-term stability.Revenue diversification across India and Japan counters U.S.-China tensions, doubling regional cloud revenue YoY.Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs deliver record efficiency, cutting compute costs by 4x and driving adoption.Nvidia’s stock consolidation sets the stage for a bullish breakout, targeting a $204 price level.Investment ThesisSince our last coverage, we anticipated Nvidia’s strong Q3 FY2025 results would fuel another bullish run. While Nvidia delivered an earnings beat, with Data Center revenue up 112% YoY to $30.8 billion driven by Hopper H200 GPUs and rising AI workloads, the stock has pulled back due to several factors.Near-term gross margin compression from the Blackwell ramp, geopolitical risks from U.S.-China tensions, and market skepticism over AI growth sustainability have weighed on sentiment. Concerns over enterprise digestion phases for AI investments and reliance on China despite regional diversification also contributed. While Nvidia’s long-term outlook remains robust, these headwinds have tempered investor optimism, driving the stock’s decline.However, we believe this pullback is a healthy consolidation phase, providing the stock with a necessary pause to absorb its recent gains and establish a stronger support base. This period of stabilization is crucial before Nvidia can build momentum for another bullish breakout toward our $204 technical price target, driven by the sustained demand for AI infrastructure and its robust market leadership.Yiazou (trendspider.com)High Demand for AI and Accelerated ComputingNvidia’s Data Center segment had a sequential rise of 17% and an impressive YoY increase of 112% in revenue for Q3 FY2025. From $3.8 billion in Q3 fiscal 2023 to $30.8 billion in Q3 fiscal 2025 (in just 2 years) points to an 8X boom in the segment performance. These revenue numbers are the primary driver of the company’s consolidated revenue. 65% of Nvidia’s revenue was derived from the data center segment in Q3 fiscal 2023, but now the segment contribution has hit 88%. The Hopper architecture (mostly the H200 GPU) holds for much of this growth.Sequentially, H200 sales scaled to double-digit billions and marked the fastest ramp ever for Nvidia. Now, Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) contributed ~50% of the Data Center segment’s revenue, which is >2X YoY and points to the scale of AI workloads demanded by cloud environments. Regionally, Nvidia saw a 2x YoY increase in its regional cloud revenue across North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific, reflecting its broad penetration that aligns with CSPs ramping their Nvidia GPU-backed cloud instances.Q3 PresentationMoreover, enterprise AI demand led to growth in specific areas (like multimodal and generative AI applications) extending Nvidia’s Data Center products. Blackwell’s launch may extend these trends in the upcoming quarters. Why? The initial performance of Blackwells attained a 2.2x leap against Hoppers and cost metrics points that GPT-3 benchmarks run on only ~64 Blackwell GPUs against ~256 H100s that reduce compute costs by 4x. As adoption scales, this cost-efficiency ratio solidifies Nvidia’s business edge in compute markets. Looking forward, $37.5 billion (~70% YoY) in Q4 revenue is based on continued demand for Hopper architecture and the initial ramping of Blackwell.Q3 PresentationRegarding the concerns on China-specific Data Center revenue, it grew sequentially in Q3 but remained capped due to export controls.From a geographic perspective, our Data Center revenue in China grew sequentially due to shipments of export-compliant copper products to industries. As a percentage of total Data Center revenue, it remains well below levels prior to the onset of export controls. We expect the market in China to remain very competitive going forward.Colette Kress, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Q3 2025 Earnings Call).Now, India has emerged as a potential counterbalance, with CSPs like Tata Communications and Infosys scaling deployments to ~10x GPU capacity within a year. Japan is also a vital growth market. Here, Nvidia’s partnership with SoftBank to build the country’s most powerful AI supercomputer reinforces its market lead in the Asia-Pacific region. These geographic expansions obviously minimize the risk of export restrictions that may intensify more under Trump 2.0. So, Nvidia is diversifying revenue sources across regions with less regulatory friction.On the bottom-line, Nvidia’s gross margins of 75% non-GAAP reflect a stable cost structure despite rising OpEx due to Blackwell. The sequential uptick in GAAP operating expenses (+9%) is tied to higher development costs for new products (like Blackwell) pointing to reinvestment for prolonged capability. While demand for Blackwell products may temper margins slightly in the near term (low-70s), these will normalize to mid-70s with a full ramp-up. This continued top-line boom with +70% gross margins is good for the stock in terms of valuation.Nvidia’s price-to-sales (PS) ratio stands at 30, near the average of 29.8 (since the AI wave, November 2022). This PS ratio underpins Nvidia’s revenue generation capability at a premium of 1,592.74%. The normalized price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55 is near the lowest level of 46.41 (since the AI wave, November 2022) while the stock offers a 1,744.91% premium on forward earnings. This disparity between current valuation and high growth premiums suggests a potential massive upside in upcoming quarters.Data by YChartsseekingalpha.comseekingalpha.comScalability Concerns in Margin Pressures During Product TransitionsNvidia stock valuations, to some extent (based on the street sentiment), are dependent on the continued scalability of LLMs. There are three modes of LLM scaling for Nvidia—pre-training, post-training, and inference. Here, this dependence raises questions about the limits of scaling, as transitioning from 100K Hoppers to 100K Blackwells for foundation models may require rapid tech iteration with high CapEx cycles from clients again! Mag 7 (ex NVDA) is already under question for the ROI on AI investments. With a new cycle of Hopper to Blackwell replacement will create investor side concerns if the adoption of new scaling methods does not deliver proportional economic and operational benefits.Additionally, as per the company, inference demand points to a growing installed base requiring upgrades but sustaining this demand assumes a constant appetite for AI-native services across enterprises. If industry enthusiasm for AI tapers and if enterprises face internal budget issues due to increasing bottom-line pressures, Nvidia’s infrastructure sales could encounter headwinds.As Nvidia transitions from Hopper to Blackwell, gross margin pressure is a weak point. As the CFO projected, gross margins fell to the low 70s at the beginning of the Blackwell ramp, which is down from historically higher levels. The financial impact is critical. Why? First, this marks initial production inefficiencies and client onboarding for Blackwell systems. Further, mid-70s gross margins materialize in H2 2025. For the next quarters, the impact of this margin compression could be significant to dampen profitability (may result in earnings miss). The street may find it troubling as AMD (AMD) is closing the top-line growth gap and outpacing Nvidia in gross profit improvement since Q1 2024.Data by YChartsOverall, Nvidia’s “trillion dollars of data center modernization” and “AI factories” assume a continuous upward demand. However, historical patterns in hardware deployment cycles suggest inevitable digestion phases, where clients pause to optimize and absorb CapEx. Nvidia’s projections may not account for these pauses as massive ROIs are also required for AI infrastructure. As Blackwell ramps, there is also the question of how long Nvidia can go on this pace before hitting saturation in major markets. The company assumes modernization will take several years but macro and geopolitical issues (Biden-Putin-Xi-Trump) can lead to reduced budgets and shifting priorities among enterprise clients and there will be a shift toward software-based optimizations that will for sure dilute demand for Nvidia’s hardware-centric products.Company Overview IRTakeawayNvidia’s recent pullback reflects short-term concerns over margin compression, geopolitical risks, and skepticism about the sustainability of AI-driven growth. However, the company’s exceptional Q3 results, driven by record Data Center performance and accelerating adoption of Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, underscore its leadership in the AI revolution. This consolidation phase is a healthy pause, setting the stage for future growth, as Nvidia remains well-positioned to capitalize on expanding AI infrastructure demand and its strong market foothold across diverse regions. With a $204 technical price target, the long-term investment case for Nvidia remains compelling.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378260410806560,"gmtCreate":1733391512450,"gmtModify":1733391798822,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Palantir will continue to soar to 100+. Don't listen to this kind of useless analyst&nbsp;","listText":"Palantir will continue to soar to 100+. Don't listen to this kind of useless analyst&nbsp;","text":"Palantir will continue to soar to 100+. Don't listen to this kind of useless analyst","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378260410806560","repostId":"1122370904","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122370904","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733380559,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122370904?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-05 14:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Technologies: Taking Profits Makes Sense (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122370904","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has shown exceptional performance with strong revenue growth, but its current valuation is far overstretched, making it a risky investment at this time.Despite stellar Q3 results, Pala","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1134317926\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir has shown exceptional performance with strong revenue growth, but its current valuation is far overstretched, making it a risky investment at this time.</p></li><li><p>Despite stellar Q3 results, Palantir&#39;s sales and EPS growth projections do not justify its high market cap and sales multiple.</p></li><li><p>Potential risks include an easing of geopolitical tensions and the incoming Trump administration, which could impact both Palantir&#39;s government and commercial segments.</p></li><li><p>Retail investors should consider taking profits now and wait for a more opportune time to reinvest, given the stock&#39;s premium valuation and potential headwinds.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/554bfffe59edb9acf6bf12d15a231da8\" alt=\"Palantir Technologies\" title=\"Palantir Technologies\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Palantir Technologies</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3653104960\">Prelude</h2><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. is an incredible company, there is no denying that. The company is one of the most hyped AI plays on the market and has greatly rewarded long-term investors. I initiated coverage of Palantir with a Buy rating back in January when the stock was trading below $20. I followed that up at the end of March with a Hold rating on valuation concerns. Clearly, I underestimated the extent to which the market loved this stock, even though my first article was titled &#34;There&#39;s A Lot To Love Here&#34;. I was analyzing the company through the lens of a value investor at a time when the market was pricing this as a hyper-growth stock. This was clearly a mistake.</p><p>The market has greatly rewarded Palantir for exceptional execution amidst surging demand for AI products. In the recent Q3 results, Palantir reported several very promising results. These included:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>US revenue grew 44% YoY and 14% QoQ, with US commercial revenue growing 54% YoY and 13% QoQ. US government revenue grew 40% YoY and 15% QoQ.</p></li><li><p>Total revenue grew 30% YoY and 7% QoQ.</p></li><li><p>The company closed 104 deals over $1 million.</p></li><li><p>Customer count grew 39% YoY and 6% QoQ.</p></li><li><p>GAAP net income reached $144m, marking a 20% net margin.</p></li><li><p>Adjusted income from operations of $276m, representing a 38% adjusted operating margin.</p></li><li><p>GAAP EPS grew 100% year-over-year to $0.06.</p></li><li><p>Adjusted EPS grew 43% year-over-year to $0.10.</p></li><li><p>Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities of $4.6b.</p></li><li><p>Adjusted free cash flow of $435m, representing a 60% FCF margin and over $1 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis.</p></li></ul><p>These are definitely stellar results. Despite the quality of the report though, the fact remains that Palantir is not even on track to break $3b in revenue this year. The company is currently trading at a market cap of $150b, leading to a ridiculous sales multiple of 50. Meanwhile, for every share you buy for $66 you are buying only $0.06 in earnings. Palantir is priced for ridiculous levels of growth. If both sales and EPS doubled each year for the next five years, this would bring 2029 sales to $96b and EPS to $1.92. Meaning, the five-year forward sales and earnings multiples respectively are still a ridiculous 1.5x and 34x. These forward multiples require growth to accelerate from its current levels, despite Palantir&#39;s already exceptional performance. This doesn&#39;t seem very realistic. This comes while stock-based comp continues to outpace share repurchases, diluting existing investors, and while management has been dumping shares for several months.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6e4afea213232e6728139d47c4949b2\" alt=\"Quiver Quantitative\" title=\"Quiver Quantitative\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"/><span>Quiver Quantitative</span></p><p>Institution and insider selling alike has been offset by the wave of purchasing from retail, who now owns 43% of the company:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b41086036f118f8f3fbad09d0c5a0bef\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>The retail community is chasing a hyped stock, while both insiders and institutions are taking profits. It makes sense for retail investors to take profits too.</p><p>With that said, I&#39;m downgrading Palantir again considering the ridiculous run the stock has had and the premium valuation that has resulted from it. The current price leaves very little room for upside and completely ignores the existence of any risks. While the past two years were comprised of exceptional execution by the company and lucrative stock performance, 2025 does not look as promising. The stock is priced for perfection, while the broader macro outlook is not as conducive to continued outsized stock returns.</p><h2 id=\"id_999461699\">Risks On The Horizon</h2><p>The Trump trade has accelerated Palantir&#39;s already fantastic year in 2024. It&#39;s unclear how beneficial the incoming Trump administration will be for Palantir in reality though. There are several reasons that Trump&#39;s presidency could produce meaningful headwinds for Palantir. Demand slowdowns in either the government or commercial end markets can lead to earnings misses, weaker than expected guidance, or a slowdown of growth. Any combination of these will severely hurt a stock with such a stretched valuation.</p><p>Palantir is a notable beneficiary of global conflicts because they stoke demand for the company&#39;s Gotham software. While it&#39;s undeniably good for humanity to end the current wars, it actually may not be great for Palantir. Trump has claimed that he will be able to negotiate a swift end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Trump has also told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants the conflict done by the time he enters office. The company sells Gotham to militaries and has been outspoken in support of Israel. A world that is entrenched in conflict creates a lot of demand for Gotham. Trump&#39;s plans to negotiate peace deals could harm a lot of this demand for Palantir and lead to weak growth in the coming years. While revenues sourced from the US military are likely safe, Palantir&#39;s Gotham sales into foreign markets could be at risk.</p><p>Additionally, government sales into non-military use cases are at risk due to the incoming Department of Government Efficiency, which has pledged to eviscerate costs across all levels of the bureaucracy. While I&#39;d expect Elon Musk would recognize the value of enterprise AI software like Palantir Foundry and Gotham, there may be contract re-negotiations or headcount reductions across government jobs. These could become headwinds for Palantir, something the company itself disclosed in the recent 10-Q:</p><blockquote><p>We continue to believe that our government customers remain a meaningful and resilient source of revenue for our business, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. However, large government customers in particular are generally subject to a number of uncertainties regarding budgets and spending levels, changes in timing and spending priorities, and regulatory and policy changes, which can make it difficult to predict when, or if, we will make sales to such customers or the size and scope of any contract awards</p></blockquote><p>While this risk is unlikely to cause an outright decrease in sales, it could harm either sales growth or sales growth expectations in 2025. Something that, again, can really harm the performance of a stock with such stretched valuation.</p><p>On the other hand, the commercial segment has been turbocharging the stock this year. Many investors believe Palantir AIP (&#34;Artificial Intelligence Platform&#34;) is the product to beat for enterprise AI. It&#39;s true that Palantir has a big lead in this space and there are very few true competitors. The company says so itself in its annual report, in which it says that internal software development projects are the principal competitor. There are very few companies even capable of commercializing enterprise AI in the way that Palantir has done so far. However, the narrative around commercial has also hinted at Palantir AIP becoming the &#39;AI Operating System&#39;, something that would dethrone the Microsoft (MSFT) Windows OS. This is extremely unlikely and not an outcome that investors should expect.</p><p>The three dominant operating systems currently are Google&#39;s (GOOG) Android, Apple&#39;s (AAPL) iOS, and Microsoft&#39;s Windows. These companies have a stranglehold on the consumer electronics market and have all begun implementing their own homegrown AI solutions throughout their ecosystem. Meanwhile, Microsoft is by far the market leader in enterprise software with Windows and Office. It has already commercialized Copilot, the AI assistant, which isn&#39;t the same as Palantir AIP but demonstrates the ease at which these companies can implement AI products throughout their stack. To grow into a 100x earnings multiple, Palantir would have to make serious headway against three of the largest and most dominant companies the world has ever seen. This isn&#39;t impossible, but there&#39;s far too much uncertainty to invest with this expectation in mind.</p><p>Further, commercial spend on new software can be impacted by an economic recession. There has been euphoria since the election results came in, but Trump has several economic proposals that could harm economic growth. He has adopted a very protectionist geopolitical position, something that can very likely reignite inflation and keep rates higher for longer. On the other hand, tax cuts for businesses and individuals can stimulate spending, but again, could reignite inflation and expand an already problematic deficit. Trump has also made very protectionist comments regarding Taiwanese chip exports, signaling he favors developing a homegrown supply chain rather than this undue reliance on Taiwan. This could accentuate the supply shortages that Nvidia (NVDA) has been constrained by. Supply shortages can lead to rising cost of AI compute, which could ultimately impact Palantir&#39;s gross margin. Additionally, tariffs on Taiwanese chip imports would certainly raise prices on consumer electronics and could, again, reignite inflation.</p><h2 id=\"id_3793449471\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>In this article, I&#39;ve taken on the challenging task of conveying a bearish sentiment on a company that, I believe, is exceptional. Very rarely would I suggest that investors sell such an exceptional stock, but this is an extreme circumstance. Palantir&#39;s valuation has become far too overstretched, and the market will come to this realization sooner than later. It&#39;s better for retail investors to secure some profits now and wait for a more opportune time to accumulate a larger position in the future.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Technologies: Taking Profits Makes Sense (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies: Taking Profits Makes Sense (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-05 14:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742056-palantir-technologies-taking-profits-makes-sense-rating-downgrade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has shown exceptional performance with strong revenue growth, but its current valuation is far overstretched, making it a risky investment at this time.Despite stellar Q3 results, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742056-palantir-technologies-taking-profits-makes-sense-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742056-palantir-technologies-taking-profits-makes-sense-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122370904","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has shown exceptional performance with strong revenue growth, but its current valuation is far overstretched, making it a risky investment at this time.Despite stellar Q3 results, Palantir's sales and EPS growth projections do not justify its high market cap and sales multiple.Potential risks include an easing of geopolitical tensions and the incoming Trump administration, which could impact both Palantir's government and commercial segments.Retail investors should consider taking profits now and wait for a more opportune time to reinvest, given the stock's premium valuation and potential headwinds.Palantir TechnologiesPreludePalantir Technologies Inc. is an incredible company, there is no denying that. The company is one of the most hyped AI plays on the market and has greatly rewarded long-term investors. I initiated coverage of Palantir with a Buy rating back in January when the stock was trading below $20. I followed that up at the end of March with a Hold rating on valuation concerns. Clearly, I underestimated the extent to which the market loved this stock, even though my first article was titled \"There's A Lot To Love Here\". I was analyzing the company through the lens of a value investor at a time when the market was pricing this as a hyper-growth stock. This was clearly a mistake.The market has greatly rewarded Palantir for exceptional execution amidst surging demand for AI products. In the recent Q3 results, Palantir reported several very promising results. These included:US revenue grew 44% YoY and 14% QoQ, with US commercial revenue growing 54% YoY and 13% QoQ. US government revenue grew 40% YoY and 15% QoQ.Total revenue grew 30% YoY and 7% QoQ.The company closed 104 deals over $1 million.Customer count grew 39% YoY and 6% QoQ.GAAP net income reached $144m, marking a 20% net margin.Adjusted income from operations of $276m, representing a 38% adjusted operating margin.GAAP EPS grew 100% year-over-year to $0.06.Adjusted EPS grew 43% year-over-year to $0.10.Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities of $4.6b.Adjusted free cash flow of $435m, representing a 60% FCF margin and over $1 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis.These are definitely stellar results. Despite the quality of the report though, the fact remains that Palantir is not even on track to break $3b in revenue this year. The company is currently trading at a market cap of $150b, leading to a ridiculous sales multiple of 50. Meanwhile, for every share you buy for $66 you are buying only $0.06 in earnings. Palantir is priced for ridiculous levels of growth. If both sales and EPS doubled each year for the next five years, this would bring 2029 sales to $96b and EPS to $1.92. Meaning, the five-year forward sales and earnings multiples respectively are still a ridiculous 1.5x and 34x. These forward multiples require growth to accelerate from its current levels, despite Palantir's already exceptional performance. This doesn't seem very realistic. This comes while stock-based comp continues to outpace share repurchases, diluting existing investors, and while management has been dumping shares for several months.Quiver QuantitativeInstitution and insider selling alike has been offset by the wave of purchasing from retail, who now owns 43% of the company:Seeking AlphaThe retail community is chasing a hyped stock, while both insiders and institutions are taking profits. It makes sense for retail investors to take profits too.With that said, I'm downgrading Palantir again considering the ridiculous run the stock has had and the premium valuation that has resulted from it. The current price leaves very little room for upside and completely ignores the existence of any risks. While the past two years were comprised of exceptional execution by the company and lucrative stock performance, 2025 does not look as promising. The stock is priced for perfection, while the broader macro outlook is not as conducive to continued outsized stock returns.Risks On The HorizonThe Trump trade has accelerated Palantir's already fantastic year in 2024. It's unclear how beneficial the incoming Trump administration will be for Palantir in reality though. There are several reasons that Trump's presidency could produce meaningful headwinds for Palantir. Demand slowdowns in either the government or commercial end markets can lead to earnings misses, weaker than expected guidance, or a slowdown of growth. Any combination of these will severely hurt a stock with such a stretched valuation.Palantir is a notable beneficiary of global conflicts because they stoke demand for the company's Gotham software. While it's undeniably good for humanity to end the current wars, it actually may not be great for Palantir. Trump has claimed that he will be able to negotiate a swift end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Trump has also told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants the conflict done by the time he enters office. The company sells Gotham to militaries and has been outspoken in support of Israel. A world that is entrenched in conflict creates a lot of demand for Gotham. Trump's plans to negotiate peace deals could harm a lot of this demand for Palantir and lead to weak growth in the coming years. While revenues sourced from the US military are likely safe, Palantir's Gotham sales into foreign markets could be at risk.Additionally, government sales into non-military use cases are at risk due to the incoming Department of Government Efficiency, which has pledged to eviscerate costs across all levels of the bureaucracy. While I'd expect Elon Musk would recognize the value of enterprise AI software like Palantir Foundry and Gotham, there may be contract re-negotiations or headcount reductions across government jobs. These could become headwinds for Palantir, something the company itself disclosed in the recent 10-Q:We continue to believe that our government customers remain a meaningful and resilient source of revenue for our business, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. However, large government customers in particular are generally subject to a number of uncertainties regarding budgets and spending levels, changes in timing and spending priorities, and regulatory and policy changes, which can make it difficult to predict when, or if, we will make sales to such customers or the size and scope of any contract awardsWhile this risk is unlikely to cause an outright decrease in sales, it could harm either sales growth or sales growth expectations in 2025. Something that, again, can really harm the performance of a stock with such stretched valuation.On the other hand, the commercial segment has been turbocharging the stock this year. Many investors believe Palantir AIP (\"Artificial Intelligence Platform\") is the product to beat for enterprise AI. It's true that Palantir has a big lead in this space and there are very few true competitors. The company says so itself in its annual report, in which it says that internal software development projects are the principal competitor. There are very few companies even capable of commercializing enterprise AI in the way that Palantir has done so far. However, the narrative around commercial has also hinted at Palantir AIP becoming the 'AI Operating System', something that would dethrone the Microsoft (MSFT) Windows OS. This is extremely unlikely and not an outcome that investors should expect.The three dominant operating systems currently are Google's (GOOG) Android, Apple's (AAPL) iOS, and Microsoft's Windows. These companies have a stranglehold on the consumer electronics market and have all begun implementing their own homegrown AI solutions throughout their ecosystem. Meanwhile, Microsoft is by far the market leader in enterprise software with Windows and Office. It has already commercialized Copilot, the AI assistant, which isn't the same as Palantir AIP but demonstrates the ease at which these companies can implement AI products throughout their stack. To grow into a 100x earnings multiple, Palantir would have to make serious headway against three of the largest and most dominant companies the world has ever seen. This isn't impossible, but there's far too much uncertainty to invest with this expectation in mind.Further, commercial spend on new software can be impacted by an economic recession. There has been euphoria since the election results came in, but Trump has several economic proposals that could harm economic growth. He has adopted a very protectionist geopolitical position, something that can very likely reignite inflation and keep rates higher for longer. On the other hand, tax cuts for businesses and individuals can stimulate spending, but again, could reignite inflation and expand an already problematic deficit. Trump has also made very protectionist comments regarding Taiwanese chip exports, signaling he favors developing a homegrown supply chain rather than this undue reliance on Taiwan. This could accentuate the supply shortages that Nvidia (NVDA) has been constrained by. Supply shortages can lead to rising cost of AI compute, which could ultimately impact Palantir's gross margin. Additionally, tariffs on Taiwanese chip imports would certainly raise prices on consumer electronics and could, again, reignite inflation.Investor TakeawayIn this article, I've taken on the challenging task of conveying a bearish sentiment on a company that, I believe, is exceptional. Very rarely would I suggest that investors sell such an exceptional stock, but this is an extreme circumstance. Palantir's valuation has become far too overstretched, and the market will come to this realization sooner than later. It's better for retail investors to secure some profits now and wait for a more opportune time to accumulate a larger position in the future.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4098098188330620","authorId":"4098098188330620","name":"MojoStellar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e757a91c3f486e5fb2bd8b91f998420","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4098098188330620","authorIdStr":"4098098188330620"},"content":"you spot on, Sir. May you harvest abundance of good stocks this festival month. [Call] [Call] [Call] [USD] [USD] [USD]","text":"you spot on, Sir. May you harvest abundance of good stocks this festival month. [Call] [Call] [Call] [USD] [USD] [USD]","html":"you spot on, Sir. May you harvest abundance of good stocks this festival month. [Call] [Call] [Call] [USD] [USD] [USD]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378258152378656,"gmtCreate":1733390961076,"gmtModify":1733390964836,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They should use Palantir&nbsp;","listText":"They should use Palantir&nbsp;","text":"They should use Palantir","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378258152378656","repostId":"2489484923","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2489484923","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1733387978,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2489484923?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-05 16:39","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Grab Holdings Chooses Amazon Web Services as Preferred Cloud Provider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2489484923","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"Grab Holdings (GRAB) has chosen Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as its preferred cloud provider, the companies said late Wednesday.Financial terms were not disclosed.The Southeast Asian delivery and financ","content":"<html><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">Grab Holdings</a> (GRAB) has chosen Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as its preferred cloud provider, the companies said late Wednesday.</p><p>Financial terms were not disclosed.</p><p>The Southeast Asian delivery and financial services app said it will use Amazon Web Services' cloud infrastructure to serve its 41.9 million monthly users across Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.</p><p>Grab said the cloud provider will help it keep operational costs down and adopt artificial intelligence technologies to provide delivery route guidance, sharpen pricing tools, personalize customer experiences, and detect possible fraud.</p></body></html>","source":"mtnewswires_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Holdings Chooses Amazon Web Services as Preferred Cloud Provider</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Holdings Chooses Amazon Web Services as Preferred Cloud Provider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-12-05 16:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">Grab Holdings</a> (GRAB) has chosen Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as its preferred cloud provider, the companies said late Wednesday.</p><p>Financial terms were not disclosed.</p><p>The Southeast Asian delivery and financial services app said it will use Amazon Web Services' cloud infrastructure to serve its 41.9 million monthly users across Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.</p><p>Grab said the cloud provider will help it keep operational costs down and adopt artificial intelligence technologies to provide delivery route guidance, sharpen pricing tools, personalize customer experiences, and detect possible fraud.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC 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\"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2247934214.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","SG9999013460.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Dividend Equity Fund SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999013478.USD":"利安新加坡股息基金","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4230":"旅客陆运","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","GRAB":"Grab Holdings","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://www.mtnewswires.com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2489484923","content_text":"Grab Holdings (GRAB) has chosen Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as its preferred cloud provider, the companies said late Wednesday.Financial terms were not disclosed.The Southeast Asian delivery and financial services app said it will use Amazon Web Services' cloud infrastructure to serve its 41.9 million monthly users across Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.Grab said the cloud provider will help it keep operational costs down and adopt artificial intelligence technologies to provide delivery route guidance, sharpen pricing tools, personalize customer experiences, and detect possible fraud.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373074369523968,"gmtCreate":1732092966201,"gmtModify":1732092970022,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy has zero credibility. He shld go work in the gas station. He is full of that&nbsp;","listText":"This guy has zero credibility. He shld go work in the gas station. He is full of that&nbsp;","text":"This guy has zero credibility. He shld go work in the gas station. He is full of that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373074369523968","repostId":"1101873677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101873677","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732089900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101873677?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-20 16:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Stock in Trouble? Jefferies Predicts a 60% Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101873677","media":"Finbold","summary":"Thus far, 2024 has been the year of AI — and although stock market darling and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the most publicized winner of this new industry’s rapid rise, big dat","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Thus far, 2024 has been the year of AI — and although stock market darling and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the most publicized winner of this new industry’s rapid rise, big data analytics company Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) could secure better yearly returns.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da94adcc1677cb447048d558601090c1\" alt=\"Is Palantir stock in trouble Jefferies predicts a 60% crash\" title=\"Is Palantir stock in trouble Jefferies predicts a 60% crash\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"/><span>Is Palantir stock in trouble Jefferies predicts a 60% crash</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After all, it is currently in the lead — whereas NVDA is up 196.86% since the beginning of the year, PLTR has secured gains of 266.80% in the same timeframe. Palantir stock closed higher 2.81% at $62.98 apiece on Tuesday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2af4b774d36b96e0e4b2199ff78efc39\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"622\"/></p><p>Palantir has long been a favorite of retail investors — in contrast, institutional investors spent most of the last couple of years openly doubting the stock. After a standout Q3 2024 earnings call on November 4, that perspective has shifted — hedge funds are now purchasing large quantities of PLTR shares, while Wall Street equity analysts are setting increasingly higher price targets.</p><p>It would not be a stretch to say that an atmosphere of greed is present — and with the hype surrounding both the wider AI industry and Palantir, it’s more important than ever to take note of and heed dissenting voices. Valuation has long been one of the primary concerns surrounding the Alex Karp-led business — and the recent surge in price has done nothing to dispel those worries.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In stark contrast with most of his colleagues, one Jefferies researcher has set a price target that would correspond with a 60% decrease in PLTR share price — let’s take a closer look at his rationale.</p><h2 id=\"h-jefferies-analyst-brent-thill-sees-significant-downside-for-pltr-stock\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies analyst Brent Thill sees significant downside for PLTR stock</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On November 7, Jefferies software and internet researcher Brent Thill downgraded Palantir stock to ‘Underperform’ from his prior ‘Hold’ rating. His previous price target of $28 remains unchanged.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Shares of the AI software infrastructure company are currently trading at a 43 times multiple of its calendar 2025 revenue. As noted by Thill, the last time such conditions were seen in the tech sector was the Covid bubble. However, seeing as how macro conditions have normalized, this is no longer a common sight — Palantir’s multiple is currently over four times as large as its next comparable peer.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The expert added that although Palantir’s fundamentals ‘are alive,’ the company would have to accelerate growth to 40% for four years straight and trade at 12x estimated 2028 revenue ‘just for the stock to hold its price, which seems unlikely.’</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At present, Thill deems even current prices unsustainable — and his arguments seem to hold water. In addition, the researcher pointed out that insider selling activity has picked up — most notably, CEO Alex Karp sold $398 million worth of PLTR stock on November 13.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s not to say that he is completely bearish when it comes to the business — while he urged caution, the Jefferies analyst added that investors should wait for a better entry point — suggesting that, though he does believe in the company’s continued success, he foresees a steep correction in the short and medium term.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1686302271270","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Stock in Trouble? Jefferies Predicts a 60% Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Stock in Trouble? Jefferies Predicts a 60% Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-20 16:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finbold.com/is-palantir-stock-in-trouble-jefferies-predicts-a-60-crash/><strong>Finbold</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Thus far, 2024 has been the year of AI — and although stock market darling and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the most publicized winner of this new industry’s rapid rise, big ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finbold.com/is-palantir-stock-in-trouble-jefferies-predicts-a-60-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://finbold.com/is-palantir-stock-in-trouble-jefferies-predicts-a-60-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101873677","content_text":"Thus far, 2024 has been the year of AI — and although stock market darling and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the most publicized winner of this new industry’s rapid rise, big data analytics company Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) could secure better yearly returns.Is Palantir stock in trouble Jefferies predicts a 60% crashAfter all, it is currently in the lead — whereas NVDA is up 196.86% since the beginning of the year, PLTR has secured gains of 266.80% in the same timeframe. Palantir stock closed higher 2.81% at $62.98 apiece on Tuesday.Palantir has long been a favorite of retail investors — in contrast, institutional investors spent most of the last couple of years openly doubting the stock. After a standout Q3 2024 earnings call on November 4, that perspective has shifted — hedge funds are now purchasing large quantities of PLTR shares, while Wall Street equity analysts are setting increasingly higher price targets.It would not be a stretch to say that an atmosphere of greed is present — and with the hype surrounding both the wider AI industry and Palantir, it’s more important than ever to take note of and heed dissenting voices. Valuation has long been one of the primary concerns surrounding the Alex Karp-led business — and the recent surge in price has done nothing to dispel those worries.In stark contrast with most of his colleagues, one Jefferies researcher has set a price target that would correspond with a 60% decrease in PLTR share price — let’s take a closer look at his rationale.Jefferies analyst Brent Thill sees significant downside for PLTR stockOn November 7, Jefferies software and internet researcher Brent Thill downgraded Palantir stock to ‘Underperform’ from his prior ‘Hold’ rating. His previous price target of $28 remains unchanged.Shares of the AI software infrastructure company are currently trading at a 43 times multiple of its calendar 2025 revenue. As noted by Thill, the last time such conditions were seen in the tech sector was the Covid bubble. However, seeing as how macro conditions have normalized, this is no longer a common sight — Palantir’s multiple is currently over four times as large as its next comparable peer.The expert added that although Palantir’s fundamentals ‘are alive,’ the company would have to accelerate growth to 40% for four years straight and trade at 12x estimated 2028 revenue ‘just for the stock to hold its price, which seems unlikely.’At present, Thill deems even current prices unsustainable — and his arguments seem to hold water. In addition, the researcher pointed out that insider selling activity has picked up — most notably, CEO Alex Karp sold $398 million worth of PLTR stock on November 13.That’s not to say that he is completely bearish when it comes to the business — while he urged caution, the Jefferies analyst added that investors should wait for a better entry point — suggesting that, though he does believe in the company’s continued success, he foresees a steep correction in the short and medium term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372995203739896,"gmtCreate":1732073159693,"gmtModify":1732073162998,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"These are the same analyst who said it was too ex when the stock was right below $30. I am 318% up now. Holding 20k stocks&nbsp;","listText":"These are the same analyst who said it was too ex when the stock was right below $30. I am 318% up now. Holding 20k stocks&nbsp;","text":"These are the same analyst who said it was too ex when the stock was right below $30. I am 318% up now. Holding 20k stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372995203739896","repostId":"2484816924","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2484816924","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732068033,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2484816924?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-20 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Is Selling Palantir Stock. Here's Why That Makes Sense","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2484816924","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Cathie Wood of Ark Invest has been selling Palantir stock, despite it being the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.","content":"<ul style=\"\"><li><p>Cathie Wood has sold about 1.9 million shares of Palantir in the last two months.</p></li><li><p>During the period Wood trimmed her position, the stock rose almost 90%.</p></li><li><p>Palantir's valuation looks stretched right now, and taking profits off the table is perfectly reasonable.</p></li></ul><p>The artificial intelligence (AI) narrative is entering a new chapter, and it's time for the \"Magnificent Seven\" stocks to move over. Throughout 2024, investors have been presented with a host of new, emerging players that are working alongside big tech and have proven they are here to compete in the AI realm.</p><p>In my eyes, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies</a> has become the most interesting case study among smaller technology companies. So far in 2024, shares of Palantir have gained 283% as of this writing, and the company stands as the best-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500 this year.</p><p>And yet, as shares of Palantir continue to reach new highs, one notable investor has been dumping the stock in droves. I'm going to outline the moves Cathie Wood of Ark Invest is making, and detail why selling Palantir stock right now actually makes a lot of sense.</p><h2 id=\"id_3411456915\">Let's take a look at Wood's recent moves in Palantir</h2><p>One of the more interesting things about Ark Invest is that the firm publishes a breakdown of the stocks it buys and sells each trading day.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><th style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Date</p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Shares of PLTR Sold</p></th></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/11/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>184,051</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/13/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,713</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/17/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,555</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/18/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32,772</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/20/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16,053</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/23/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7,747</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/25/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>62,809</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10/28/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>128,908</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10/30/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>372,730</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/01/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>227,699</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/04/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>158,457</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/05/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>211,203</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/07/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>264,513</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/15/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>197,847</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: Ark Invest, Cathiesark.com. Table by author.</p><p>According to that data, Wood and her team reduced their holdings of Palantir across Ark's various funds by roughly 1.9 million shares between Sept. 11 and Nov. 15.</p><h2 id=\"id_3295179883\">Why does selling Palantir stock make sense right now?</h2><p>Shares of Palantir have soared throughout 2024. But between Sept. 11 and Nov. 15 (the period of Ark's selling), Palantir stock gained 89%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a603544fbfbffb1609f39e12b0def85\" alt=\"Data by YCharts.\" title=\"Data by YCharts.\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>In the chart above, the date of Palantir's third-quarter earnings release is marked with a purple circle with the letter \"E\" in the center. As you can see, Palantir stock has risen considerably following that blowout Q3 report.</p><p>While such gains have been great for Palantir shareholders, the magnitude of these upswings should come with a hard look at the fundamentals. As illustrated in the graph below, Palantir's price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 60 is the highest among leading software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses -- and it's not particularly close, either.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b30366a6c44b221bc23151756e45e7f\" alt=\"Data by YCharts.\" title=\"Data by YCharts.\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"541\"><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>I cannot stress this point enough: Palantir is trading at more 60 times sales, <em>not</em> <em>earnings</em>. While Palantir is indeed generating positive net income and free cash flow, both measures are still relatively small right now.</p><p>Whenever a stock experiences a pronounced rally in a short time period, it's appropriate for fund managers to rebalance their portfolio. In this case, Wood's sales of Palantir coincide with the company being added to the S&amp;P 500 as well as an impressive earnings report. Both of these events became positive near-term catalysts for Palantir stock.</p><p>It's possible Palantir's weighting across the different Ark funds was becoming too high, so Wood and team decided to trim the position and take some profits off the table. While Palantir has demonstrated an ability to accelerate both revenue and profits, the valuation expansion seen in the chart above suggests the stock may be overbought right now.</p><h2 id=\"id_2399248127\">Remember to think long-term</h2><p>As a Palantir shareholder, I very much believe in the company's future thanks to lucrative partnerships with big tech firms such as <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Oracle</strong>. Moreover, Palantir is quietly becoming a major force in the U.S. military's defense tech effort -- an opportunity Mordor Intelligence estimates will be worth more than $60 billion by 2029.</p><p>That said, Palantir stock is undoubtedly pricey right now. If you've been holding the stock for a long time, consider trimming your position at this point. Although there's still potential upside for Palantir, reducing your position at these valuation levels can also make sense.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Is Selling Palantir Stock. Here's Why That Makes Sense</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Is Selling Palantir Stock. Here's Why That Makes Sense\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-20 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/19/cathie-wood-is-selling-palantir-stock-heres-why-th/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood has sold about 1.9 million shares of Palantir in the last two months.During the period Wood trimmed her position, the stock rose almost 90%.Palantir's valuation looks stretched right now, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/19/cathie-wood-is-selling-palantir-stock-heres-why-th/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4543":"AI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/19/cathie-wood-is-selling-palantir-stock-heres-why-th/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2484816924","content_text":"Cathie Wood has sold about 1.9 million shares of Palantir in the last two months.During the period Wood trimmed her position, the stock rose almost 90%.Palantir's valuation looks stretched right now, and taking profits off the table is perfectly reasonable.The artificial intelligence (AI) narrative is entering a new chapter, and it's time for the \"Magnificent Seven\" stocks to move over. Throughout 2024, investors have been presented with a host of new, emerging players that are working alongside big tech and have proven they are here to compete in the AI realm.In my eyes, Palantir Technologies has become the most interesting case study among smaller technology companies. So far in 2024, shares of Palantir have gained 283% as of this writing, and the company stands as the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.And yet, as shares of Palantir continue to reach new highs, one notable investor has been dumping the stock in droves. I'm going to outline the moves Cathie Wood of Ark Invest is making, and detail why selling Palantir stock right now actually makes a lot of sense.Let's take a look at Wood's recent moves in PalantirOne of the more interesting things about Ark Invest is that the firm publishes a breakdown of the stocks it buys and sells each trading day.DateShares of PLTR Sold09/11/24184,05109/13/2413,71309/17/248,55509/18/2432,77209/20/2416,05309/23/247,74709/25/2462,80910/28/24128,90810/30/24372,73011/01/24227,69911/04/24158,45711/05/24211,20311/07/24264,51311/15/24197,847Data source: Ark Invest, Cathiesark.com. Table by author.According to that data, Wood and her team reduced their holdings of Palantir across Ark's various funds by roughly 1.9 million shares between Sept. 11 and Nov. 15.Why does selling Palantir stock make sense right now?Shares of Palantir have soared throughout 2024. But between Sept. 11 and Nov. 15 (the period of Ark's selling), Palantir stock gained 89%.Data by YCharts.In the chart above, the date of Palantir's third-quarter earnings release is marked with a purple circle with the letter \"E\" in the center. As you can see, Palantir stock has risen considerably following that blowout Q3 report.While such gains have been great for Palantir shareholders, the magnitude of these upswings should come with a hard look at the fundamentals. As illustrated in the graph below, Palantir's price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 60 is the highest among leading software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses -- and it's not particularly close, either.Data by YCharts.I cannot stress this point enough: Palantir is trading at more 60 times sales, not earnings. While Palantir is indeed generating positive net income and free cash flow, both measures are still relatively small right now.Whenever a stock experiences a pronounced rally in a short time period, it's appropriate for fund managers to rebalance their portfolio. In this case, Wood's sales of Palantir coincide with the company being added to the S&P 500 as well as an impressive earnings report. Both of these events became positive near-term catalysts for Palantir stock.It's possible Palantir's weighting across the different Ark funds was becoming too high, so Wood and team decided to trim the position and take some profits off the table. While Palantir has demonstrated an ability to accelerate both revenue and profits, the valuation expansion seen in the chart above suggests the stock may be overbought right now.Remember to think long-termAs a Palantir shareholder, I very much believe in the company's future thanks to lucrative partnerships with big tech firms such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle. Moreover, Palantir is quietly becoming a major force in the U.S. military's defense tech effort -- an opportunity Mordor Intelligence estimates will be worth more than $60 billion by 2029.That said, Palantir stock is undoubtedly pricey right now. If you've been holding the stock for a long time, consider trimming your position at this point. Although there's still potential upside for Palantir, reducing your position at these valuation levels can also make sense.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363562869534840,"gmtCreate":1729787021029,"gmtModify":1729787654945,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy is not trustworthy. He shld shut up&nbsp;","listText":"This guy is not trustworthy. He shld shut up&nbsp;","text":"This guy is not trustworthy. He shld shut up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363562869534840","repostId":"2477893276","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477893276","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1729782900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477893276?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-24 23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Cuts Back iPhone Orders. Why Demand Fears Are Mounting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477893276","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The argument around demand for Apple’s latest iPhones continues to rage. The latest update is a bearish assessment from influential Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities.Chi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The argument around demand for Apple’s latest iPhones continues to rage. The latest update is a bearish assessment from influential Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/251ba2cda65bbf71df6c08bebee8bf45\" alt=\"China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.\" title=\"China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span>China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple has cut its cut orders to suppliers for the iPhone 16 by about 10 million units for the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2025,accordingto Kuo. </p><p>Apple didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment early on Thursday. </p><p>Demand for the new iPhone 16 has been a subject of hot debate among analysts, who are trying to gauge whether the integration of artificial intelligence is attracting customers. Just this week, analysts at UBS noted they expect iPhone unit sales in the September quarter to be flat from the same time a year ago, while J.P. Morgan analysts said they see demand in line with the iPhone 15 based on delivery times. </p><p>Kuo’s assessment—which is based on his analysis of the company’s supply chain rather than sales—looks more downbeat. He now forecasts Apple partners will produce 80 million iPhones during the fourth quarter, down from around 84 million last year. He estimates production of 45 million units during the first quarter of 2025 and 39 million units during the second quarter—down from 48 million and 41 million, respectively.</p><p>The effect on sales might not be so pronounced in the short term as Kuo said the cuts are largely due to production of the cheaper non-Pro models. However, he said he expects iPhone revenue to come under pressure in the first half of 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I believe that Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service,” Kuo said. “However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Chinese officials in Beijing on Wednesday. They discussed the company’s development in China, network data security and cloud services, according to a ministry statement. But it would be surprising if Cook didn’t take the chance to press for Beijing to allow Apple Intelligence—the company’s AI brand—to launch in China.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple shares were down 0.4% in early trading on Thursday after falling 2.2% the previous day.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday ordered Apple to pay a $25 million penalty over what it described as failures pertaining to its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs, which was ordered to pay nearly $65 million.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The CFPB said Apple failed to send tens of thousands of consumer disputes of Apple Card transactions to Goldman—and that when Apple did send disputes to Goldman the bank didn’t follow federal requirements for investigating them.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Cuts Back iPhone Orders. Why Demand Fears Are Mounting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Cuts Back iPhone Orders. Why Demand Fears Are Mounting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-24 23:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The argument around demand for Apple’s latest iPhones continues to rage. The latest update is a bearish assessment from influential Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/251ba2cda65bbf71df6c08bebee8bf45\" alt=\"China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.\" title=\"China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span>China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple has cut its cut orders to suppliers for the iPhone 16 by about 10 million units for the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2025,accordingto Kuo. </p><p>Apple didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment early on Thursday. </p><p>Demand for the new iPhone 16 has been a subject of hot debate among analysts, who are trying to gauge whether the integration of artificial intelligence is attracting customers. Just this week, analysts at UBS noted they expect iPhone unit sales in the September quarter to be flat from the same time a year ago, while J.P. Morgan analysts said they see demand in line with the iPhone 15 based on delivery times. </p><p>Kuo’s assessment—which is based on his analysis of the company’s supply chain rather than sales—looks more downbeat. He now forecasts Apple partners will produce 80 million iPhones during the fourth quarter, down from around 84 million last year. He estimates production of 45 million units during the first quarter of 2025 and 39 million units during the second quarter—down from 48 million and 41 million, respectively.</p><p>The effect on sales might not be so pronounced in the short term as Kuo said the cuts are largely due to production of the cheaper non-Pro models. However, he said he expects iPhone revenue to come under pressure in the first half of 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I believe that Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service,” Kuo said. “However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Chinese officials in Beijing on Wednesday. They discussed the company’s development in China, network data security and cloud services, according to a ministry statement. But it would be surprising if Cook didn’t take the chance to press for Beijing to allow Apple Intelligence—the company’s AI brand—to launch in China.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple shares were down 0.4% in early trading on Thursday after falling 2.2% the previous day.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday ordered Apple to pay a $25 million penalty over what it described as failures pertaining to its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs, which was ordered to pay nearly $65 million.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The CFPB said Apple failed to send tens of thousands of consumer disputes of Apple Card transactions to Goldman—and that when Apple did send disputes to Goldman the bank didn’t follow federal requirements for investigating them.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE0009G5SDU7.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AAPL":"苹果","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD)  INC AV","IE000YTNTUN2.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG)INC","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","IE0034235071.USD":"PINEBRIDGE EUROPE RESEARCH ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477893276","content_text":"The argument around demand for Apple’s latest iPhones continues to rage. The latest update is a bearish assessment from influential Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities. China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.Apple has cut its cut orders to suppliers for the iPhone 16 by about 10 million units for the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2025,accordingto Kuo. Apple didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment early on Thursday. Demand for the new iPhone 16 has been a subject of hot debate among analysts, who are trying to gauge whether the integration of artificial intelligence is attracting customers. Just this week, analysts at UBS noted they expect iPhone unit sales in the September quarter to be flat from the same time a year ago, while J.P. Morgan analysts said they see demand in line with the iPhone 15 based on delivery times. Kuo’s assessment—which is based on his analysis of the company’s supply chain rather than sales—looks more downbeat. He now forecasts Apple partners will produce 80 million iPhones during the fourth quarter, down from around 84 million last year. He estimates production of 45 million units during the first quarter of 2025 and 39 million units during the second quarter—down from 48 million and 41 million, respectively.The effect on sales might not be so pronounced in the short term as Kuo said the cuts are largely due to production of the cheaper non-Pro models. However, he said he expects iPhone revenue to come under pressure in the first half of 2025.“I believe that Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service,” Kuo said. “However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development.”Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Chinese officials in Beijing on Wednesday. They discussed the company’s development in China, network data security and cloud services, according to a ministry statement. But it would be surprising if Cook didn’t take the chance to press for Beijing to allow Apple Intelligence—the company’s AI brand—to launch in China.Apple shares were down 0.4% in early trading on Thursday after falling 2.2% the previous day.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday ordered Apple to pay a $25 million penalty over what it described as failures pertaining to its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs, which was ordered to pay nearly $65 million.The CFPB said Apple failed to send tens of thousands of consumer disputes of Apple Card transactions to Goldman—and that when Apple did send disputes to Goldman the bank didn’t follow federal requirements for investigating them.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351417391546496,"gmtCreate":1726833836393,"gmtModify":1726836904133,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Isnt HK = China ?&nbsp;","listText":"Isnt HK = China ?&nbsp;","text":"Isnt HK = China ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351417391546496","repostId":"2468658038","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340435706003608,"gmtCreate":1724145216299,"gmtModify":1724147372940,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy talk nonsense. Sore loser&nbsp;","listText":"This guy talk nonsense. Sore loser&nbsp;","text":"This guy talk nonsense. Sore loser","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340435706003608","repostId":"2460103938","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2460103938","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724142540,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2460103938?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-20 16:29","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Don't Follow It Off The Cliff, Overpriced Generative AI Story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460103938","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"PLTR has demonstrated the promising monetization of generative AI SaaS layer across the government and commercial segments, thanks to the highly opportunistic AIP boot camp.These have led to its highe","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>PLTR has demonstrated the promising monetization of generative AI SaaS layer across the government and commercial segments, thanks to the highly opportunistic AIP boot camp.</p></li><li><p>These have led to its higher Net Retention Rates and the growing multi-year Remaining Performance Obligations, sustaining its high-growth investment thesis.</p></li><li><p>Even so, with these developments triggering PLTR&#39;s lofty valuations compared to its peers, we believe that there is a minimal margin of safety at current levels.</p></li><li><p>Based on its historical trading pattern, the stock is likely to pull back to its uptrend support levels of $24s in the near-term.</p></li><li><p>Traders may consider following the massive insider selling and taking part of their gains off the table, before coming back in later.</p></li></ul><p>We previously covered <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> in May 2024, discussing the normalization in market sentiments surrounding generative AI stocks, despite the SaaS company&#39;s robust performance metrics thanks to the successful AIP boot camps.</p><p>We had upgraded our rating to a Buy then, preferably after a moderate retracement to its previous support levels of $18s for an improved margin of safety.</p><p>Since then, PLTR has maintained a floor at $20 while rallying by +55.7% to retest its all-time highs of $30s, naturally outperforming the wider market at +6.1%.</p><p>This is despite the drastic July 2024 market wide pullback, with the bullish support attributed to the double beat FQ2&#39;24 performance and raised FY2024 guidance, with it underscoring the successful penetration of generative AI monetization through the infrastructure layer to the SaaS layer.</p><p>Even so, we are downgrading the stock to a Hold instead, since it is now overly expensive with the baked in growth premium offering interested investors with a minimal upside potential.</p><h3 id=\"id_3847959463\">PLTR Continues To Outperform Expectations, With Robust Growth Prospects &amp; Performance Metrics</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/750e4c736f8a7df65439c55a29a2630e\" alt=\"PLTR YTD Stock Price\" title=\"PLTR YTD Stock Price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\"/><span>PLTR YTD Stock Price</span></p><p>Since its first GAAP profitability and the seven consecutive positive bottom-line results since Q4&#39;22, it is unsurprising that the PLTR stock has already generated robust gains, significantly aided by the growing demand for its generative AI SaaS offerings.</p><p>The latter is already observed in the double beat performance, with its commercial growth accelerating at +32.4% YoY in FQ2&#39;24, compared to +10.4% YoY reported in FQ2&#39;23. Government demand is robust at +23% YoY as well, compared to +14.6% YoY a year ago.</p><p>It is apparent from these developments that PLTR&#39;s AI Bootcamp strategy has been highly successful in winning new customers, as observed in the higher overall customer count at 593 (+39 QoQ/ +172 YoY).</p><p>This in top of the improved cross-selling to existing customers, given the higher Net Retention Dollar of 114% in FQ2&#39;24 (+3 points QoQ/ +6 from FQ4&#39;23 levels of 108%).</p><p>Most importantly, PLTR&#39;s boot camp strategy during the generative AI boom has directly contributed to the SaaS company&#39;s excellent Rule of 40 results at 64% by the latest quarter (+7 points QoQ/ +26 YoY), thanks to the accelerated sales growth at 27% (+6 points QoQ/ +14 YoY) and richer adj operating margin at 37% (+1 points QoQ/ +12 YoY).</p><p>Moving forward, we believe that the SaaS company may be able to continue generating robust performance metrics ahead, significantly aided by its highly strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT).</p><p>It is important for us to highlight that both PLTR and MSFT&#39;s Azure boast &#34;the highest possible DoD Impact Level 6 (IL6) provisional authorization (PA) at the high confidentiality and high integrity (H-H-x) information categorization.&#34;</p><p>These developments imply that PLTR will be able to leverage on Azure&#39;s existing Large Language Models and OpenAI&#39;s GPT-4 capabilities, while being integrated into the Federal government&#39;s highly classified cloud data, naturally driving further growth opportunities for the former&#39;s government segment.</p><p>With the US government comprising $278M (+8% QoQ/ +24% YoY) or the equivalent 41% (+0.5 points QoQ/ -1.1 YoY) of the SaaS company&#39;s overall FQ2&#39;24 revenues, it is undeniable that the US Federal contracts remain the backbone of its overall prospects.</p><p>The next few years are likely to bring forth significant growth opportunities as well, attributed to the higher defense spending as geopolitical hostilities intensify in Gaza and Ukraine.</p><p>PLTR&#39;s inflection is further observed in the raised FY2024 guidance, with revenues of $2.746B (+23.6% YoY) and adj income from operations of $970M (+53.2% YoY) at the midpoint.</p><p>This is up from the original guidance of $2.66B (+19.8% YoY) and $842M (+33% YoY) offered in the FQ4&#39;23 earnings call, respectively.</p><p>The raised guidance is not overly aggressive indeed, based on PLTR&#39;s H1&#39;24 numbers of $1.31B (+24.7% YoY) and $480.02M (+84.6% YoY), with it demonstrating the management&#39;s confidence about generating robust and profitable growth ahead, with another raise and beat performance likely in FQ3&#39;24.</p><p>With these numbers well-supported by the growing multi-year Remaining Performance Obligation of $1.37B (+5.3% QoQ/ +41.2% YoY), we believe the stock continues to offer a compelling high-growth investment thesis.</p><p><strong>The Consensus Forward Estimates</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a35d43ec8b2405d6fda6813ce09fdb2\" alt=\"TIKR Terminal\" title=\"TIKR Terminal\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\"/><span>TIKR Terminal</span></p><p>As a result of the raised FY2024 guidance, it is unsurprising that the consensus have already raised their forward estimates, with PLTR expected to generate an accelerated top/ bottom-line growth at a CAGR of +21.3%/ +28.4% through FY2026.</p><p>This is compared to the original estimates of +20.3%/ +23.2% and historical top-line growth of +30.1% between FY2018 and FY2023, respectively.</p><p><strong>PLTR Valuations</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/93b2208a8b0501fe0ad889cf9a0c3ccb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"123\"/></p><p>On the other hand, it is undeniable that PLTR may be expensive at FWD P/E valuations of 90.29x, compared to its 1Y mean of 66.90x and 3Y mean of 69.54x.</p><p>Even when compared to its AI SaaS peers, it is apparent that PLTR is trading at a premium, including Google (GOOG) at FWD P/E of 21.63x with the projected adj EPS growth of +19.6% through FY2026, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> (ADBE) at 30.47x/ +14%, Microsoft at 31.75x/ +15.1%, Nvidia (NVDA) at 45.70x/ +49.3%, and with the rare exception being CrowdStrike (CRWD) at 66.94x/ +24.1%, respectively.</p><p>If we are to do the same exercise with its direct competitors, including BigBear.ai (BBAI) at FWD Price/ Sales of 1.83x with the projected revenue growth of +18% through FY2026, C3.ai (AI) at 8.30x/ +20.8%, and SoundHound AI (SOUN) at 21.59x/ +82.1%, we believe that PLTR at 26.04x/ +21.3% appears to be on the expensive side.</p><p>Given PLTR&#39;s relatively premium valuation, we believe that there is a minimal margin of safety at current levels indeed.</p><h2 id=\"id_2096264043\">So, Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</h2><p><strong>PLTR 4Y Stock Price</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9989f8853a376f38a76fb635552965d\" alt=\"TradingView\" title=\"TradingView\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><p>For now, PLTR&#39;s uptrend has been impressive since the December 2022 bottom, with it consistently charting higher highs and higher lows despite the recent market rotation from high-growth stocks.</p><p>For context, we had offered a long-term price target of $26.70 in our previous article, based on the consensus FY2026 adj EPS estimates of $0.47 and the 2022/ 2023 P/E mean of 57x.</p><p>Based on the consensus raised FY2026 adj EPS estimates of $0.53 and the same P/E, we are looking at an updated long-term price target of $30.20, with it implying a minimal margin of safety at current levels.</p><p>On the one hand, PLTR&#39;s short interest continues to moderate to 2.85% by the time of writing, down from the previous article levels of 3.52%, with it implying lower volatility from short sellers.</p><p>On the other hand, as the stock prices reached new peaks of over $30s, nearing those observed during the February 2021 peaks, it is unsurprising that insiders have been unlocking great gains at current levels with $240M sold in Q2&#39;24 (+30.4% QoQ/ +788% YoY).</p><p>While market sentiments surrounding high-growth stocks appear to have normalized after the great correction in July 2024 with the CBOE Volatility Index also moderating, we maintain our belief that there remains a minimal upside potential at current levels.</p><p>Based on PLTR&#39;s historical trading pattern, the stock is likely to pull back to its uptrend support levels of $24s in the near-term.</p><p>As a result of the potential capital losses, we are downgrading our Buy rating to Hold (Neutral) rating instead. Interested long-term investors may consider waiting for the pullback before adding for an improved dollar cost average.</p><p>Likewise, traders may consider following insiders and taking part of their gains off the table, before coming back in later.</p><p>For now, do not chase PLTR over the cliff.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Don't Follow It Off The Cliff, Overpriced Generative AI Story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Don't Follow It Off The Cliff, Overpriced Generative AI Story\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-20 16:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715533-palantir-stock-dont-follow-it-off-the-cliff-overpriced-generative-ai-story><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>PLTR has demonstrated the promising monetization of generative AI SaaS layer across the government and commercial segments, thanks to the highly opportunistic AIP boot camp.These have led to its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715533-palantir-stock-dont-follow-it-off-the-cliff-overpriced-generative-ai-story\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715533-palantir-stock-dont-follow-it-off-the-cliff-overpriced-generative-ai-story","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2460103938","content_text":"PLTR has demonstrated the promising monetization of generative AI SaaS layer across the government and commercial segments, thanks to the highly opportunistic AIP boot camp.These have led to its higher Net Retention Rates and the growing multi-year Remaining Performance Obligations, sustaining its high-growth investment thesis.Even so, with these developments triggering PLTR's lofty valuations compared to its peers, we believe that there is a minimal margin of safety at current levels.Based on its historical trading pattern, the stock is likely to pull back to its uptrend support levels of $24s in the near-term.Traders may consider following the massive insider selling and taking part of their gains off the table, before coming back in later.We previously covered Palantir Technologies Inc. in May 2024, discussing the normalization in market sentiments surrounding generative AI stocks, despite the SaaS company's robust performance metrics thanks to the successful AIP boot camps.We had upgraded our rating to a Buy then, preferably after a moderate retracement to its previous support levels of $18s for an improved margin of safety.Since then, PLTR has maintained a floor at $20 while rallying by +55.7% to retest its all-time highs of $30s, naturally outperforming the wider market at +6.1%.This is despite the drastic July 2024 market wide pullback, with the bullish support attributed to the double beat FQ2'24 performance and raised FY2024 guidance, with it underscoring the successful penetration of generative AI monetization through the infrastructure layer to the SaaS layer.Even so, we are downgrading the stock to a Hold instead, since it is now overly expensive with the baked in growth premium offering interested investors with a minimal upside potential.PLTR Continues To Outperform Expectations, With Robust Growth Prospects & Performance MetricsPLTR YTD Stock PriceSince its first GAAP profitability and the seven consecutive positive bottom-line results since Q4'22, it is unsurprising that the PLTR stock has already generated robust gains, significantly aided by the growing demand for its generative AI SaaS offerings.The latter is already observed in the double beat performance, with its commercial growth accelerating at +32.4% YoY in FQ2'24, compared to +10.4% YoY reported in FQ2'23. Government demand is robust at +23% YoY as well, compared to +14.6% YoY a year ago.It is apparent from these developments that PLTR's AI Bootcamp strategy has been highly successful in winning new customers, as observed in the higher overall customer count at 593 (+39 QoQ/ +172 YoY).This in top of the improved cross-selling to existing customers, given the higher Net Retention Dollar of 114% in FQ2'24 (+3 points QoQ/ +6 from FQ4'23 levels of 108%).Most importantly, PLTR's boot camp strategy during the generative AI boom has directly contributed to the SaaS company's excellent Rule of 40 results at 64% by the latest quarter (+7 points QoQ/ +26 YoY), thanks to the accelerated sales growth at 27% (+6 points QoQ/ +14 YoY) and richer adj operating margin at 37% (+1 points QoQ/ +12 YoY).Moving forward, we believe that the SaaS company may be able to continue generating robust performance metrics ahead, significantly aided by its highly strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT).It is important for us to highlight that both PLTR and MSFT's Azure boast \"the highest possible DoD Impact Level 6 (IL6) provisional authorization (PA) at the high confidentiality and high integrity (H-H-x) information categorization.\"These developments imply that PLTR will be able to leverage on Azure's existing Large Language Models and OpenAI's GPT-4 capabilities, while being integrated into the Federal government's highly classified cloud data, naturally driving further growth opportunities for the former's government segment.With the US government comprising $278M (+8% QoQ/ +24% YoY) or the equivalent 41% (+0.5 points QoQ/ -1.1 YoY) of the SaaS company's overall FQ2'24 revenues, it is undeniable that the US Federal contracts remain the backbone of its overall prospects.The next few years are likely to bring forth significant growth opportunities as well, attributed to the higher defense spending as geopolitical hostilities intensify in Gaza and Ukraine.PLTR's inflection is further observed in the raised FY2024 guidance, with revenues of $2.746B (+23.6% YoY) and adj income from operations of $970M (+53.2% YoY) at the midpoint.This is up from the original guidance of $2.66B (+19.8% YoY) and $842M (+33% YoY) offered in the FQ4'23 earnings call, respectively.The raised guidance is not overly aggressive indeed, based on PLTR's H1'24 numbers of $1.31B (+24.7% YoY) and $480.02M (+84.6% YoY), with it demonstrating the management's confidence about generating robust and profitable growth ahead, with another raise and beat performance likely in FQ3'24.With these numbers well-supported by the growing multi-year Remaining Performance Obligation of $1.37B (+5.3% QoQ/ +41.2% YoY), we believe the stock continues to offer a compelling high-growth investment thesis.The Consensus Forward EstimatesTIKR TerminalAs a result of the raised FY2024 guidance, it is unsurprising that the consensus have already raised their forward estimates, with PLTR expected to generate an accelerated top/ bottom-line growth at a CAGR of +21.3%/ +28.4% through FY2026.This is compared to the original estimates of +20.3%/ +23.2% and historical top-line growth of +30.1% between FY2018 and FY2023, respectively.PLTR ValuationsOn the other hand, it is undeniable that PLTR may be expensive at FWD P/E valuations of 90.29x, compared to its 1Y mean of 66.90x and 3Y mean of 69.54x.Even when compared to its AI SaaS peers, it is apparent that PLTR is trading at a premium, including Google (GOOG) at FWD P/E of 21.63x with the projected adj EPS growth of +19.6% through FY2026, Adobe (ADBE) at 30.47x/ +14%, Microsoft at 31.75x/ +15.1%, Nvidia (NVDA) at 45.70x/ +49.3%, and with the rare exception being CrowdStrike (CRWD) at 66.94x/ +24.1%, respectively.If we are to do the same exercise with its direct competitors, including BigBear.ai (BBAI) at FWD Price/ Sales of 1.83x with the projected revenue growth of +18% through FY2026, C3.ai (AI) at 8.30x/ +20.8%, and SoundHound AI (SOUN) at 21.59x/ +82.1%, we believe that PLTR at 26.04x/ +21.3% appears to be on the expensive side.Given PLTR's relatively premium valuation, we believe that there is a minimal margin of safety at current levels indeed.So, Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?PLTR 4Y Stock PriceTradingViewFor now, PLTR's uptrend has been impressive since the December 2022 bottom, with it consistently charting higher highs and higher lows despite the recent market rotation from high-growth stocks.For context, we had offered a long-term price target of $26.70 in our previous article, based on the consensus FY2026 adj EPS estimates of $0.47 and the 2022/ 2023 P/E mean of 57x.Based on the consensus raised FY2026 adj EPS estimates of $0.53 and the same P/E, we are looking at an updated long-term price target of $30.20, with it implying a minimal margin of safety at current levels.On the one hand, PLTR's short interest continues to moderate to 2.85% by the time of writing, down from the previous article levels of 3.52%, with it implying lower volatility from short sellers.On the other hand, as the stock prices reached new peaks of over $30s, nearing those observed during the February 2021 peaks, it is unsurprising that insiders have been unlocking great gains at current levels with $240M sold in Q2'24 (+30.4% QoQ/ +788% YoY).While market sentiments surrounding high-growth stocks appear to have normalized after the great correction in July 2024 with the CBOE Volatility Index also moderating, we maintain our belief that there remains a minimal upside potential at current levels.Based on PLTR's historical trading pattern, the stock is likely to pull back to its uptrend support levels of $24s in the near-term.As a result of the potential capital losses, we are downgrading our Buy rating to Hold (Neutral) rating instead. Interested long-term investors may consider waiting for the pullback before adding for an improved dollar cost average.Likewise, traders may consider following insiders and taking part of their gains off the table, before coming back in later.For now, do not chase PLTR over the cliff.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328123225444488,"gmtCreate":1721138184510,"gmtModify":1721138190287,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No brain analyst&nbsp;","listText":"No brain analyst&nbsp;","text":"No brain analyst","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328123225444488","repostId":"1162176667","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162176667","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1721136900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162176667?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-16 21:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Slips 3% Following Ratings Downgrade from Mizuho","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162176667","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Palantir Technologies slipped nearly 3% in morning trading Tuesday after being downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Mizuho Securities.Although Palantir has performed well in recent quarters, Miz","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Technologies slipped nearly 3% in morning trading Tuesday after being downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Mizuho Securities.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f69bfd5e8314b7d2b924705c598f1307\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"622\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Although Palantir has performed well in recent quarters, Mizuho analysts doubt whether the big data analytics software firm can maintain these results.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;But primarily, following the material 67% rise in the shares YTD, we find it increasingly difficult to justify PLTR&#39;s high multiple (21x CY25E revenue) that, in our view, likely already discounts significant acceleration versus our consensus expectations for 20-21% revenue growth,&#34; said Mizuho analysts led by Gregg Moskowitz, in a note.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, Mizuho slightly increased the price target on the Denver-based firm to $22 from $21.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;There are some exciting aspects of the PLTR story (megadeals, AIP), although this is offset by a lack of transparency and a likelihood of lumpy results going forward, in our view,&#34; Moskowitz added. &#34;Net, we have limited confidence in the company&#39;s ability to deliver consistently strong results and accelerating growth, which is needed to justify the premium valuation.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir has a Hold rating from Seeking Alpha analysts, Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant system, which routinely beats the market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Slips 3% Following Ratings Downgrade from Mizuho</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Slips 3% Following Ratings Downgrade from Mizuho\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-16 21:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124573-palantir-slips-pre-market-following-ratings-downgrade-from-mizuho><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies slipped nearly 3% in morning trading Tuesday after being downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Mizuho Securities.Although Palantir has performed well in recent quarters, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124573-palantir-slips-pre-market-following-ratings-downgrade-from-mizuho\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124573-palantir-slips-pre-market-following-ratings-downgrade-from-mizuho","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1162176667","content_text":"Palantir Technologies slipped nearly 3% in morning trading Tuesday after being downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Mizuho Securities.Although Palantir has performed well in recent quarters, Mizuho analysts doubt whether the big data analytics software firm can maintain these results.\"But primarily, following the material 67% rise in the shares YTD, we find it increasingly difficult to justify PLTR's high multiple (21x CY25E revenue) that, in our view, likely already discounts significant acceleration versus our consensus expectations for 20-21% revenue growth,\" said Mizuho analysts led by Gregg Moskowitz, in a note.However, Mizuho slightly increased the price target on the Denver-based firm to $22 from $21.\"There are some exciting aspects of the PLTR story (megadeals, AIP), although this is offset by a lack of transparency and a likelihood of lumpy results going forward, in our view,\" Moskowitz added. \"Net, we have limited confidence in the company's ability to deliver consistently strong results and accelerating growth, which is needed to justify the premium valuation.\"Palantir has a Hold rating from Seeking Alpha analysts, Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha's Quant system, which routinely beats the market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":300860266229792,"gmtCreate":1714468235009,"gmtModify":1714468395403,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well fargo cannot be trusted&nbsp;","listText":"Well fargo cannot be trusted&nbsp;","text":"Well fargo cannot be trusted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300860266229792","repostId":"2431848642","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2431848642","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1714465356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2431848642?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-04-30 16:22","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Big Rally on China Developments Is Called Overdone by Wells Fargo","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2431848642","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a big rally on Monday, with shares up as much as 18% after Elon Musk's surprise visit to China and the announcement of an expansion of the company's partnership with Baidu (BID","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a big rally on Monday, with shares up 15% after Elon Musk&#39;s surprise visit to China and the announcement of an expansion of the company&#39;s partnership with Baidu (BIDU).</p><p>Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said he was surprised by the big share price move on Monday, given the firm sees limited EPS impact and with deal details far from certain.</p><p>&#34;The partnership with Baidu helped ease China regulators&#39; concerns over data security. However, there&#39;re no details of the partnership in terms of economics &amp; data sharing. Also, TSLA&#39;s FSD system is vision-only with decisions that are not dependent on mapping, so Baidu&#39;s role in the FSD tech is unclear.&#34;</p><p>Langan also warned that there could be restrictions on sharing data, which could limit Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) ability to leverage the tech progress it has seen in the U.S.</p><p>There is also the glaring point that Chinese electric vehicle makers are fast followers and could undercut Tesla (TSLA) on pricing. Advanced driver-assistance systems are already going mainstream in China, with XPeng (XPEV) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) two of the notable players. Li Auto (LI) and BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) also have advanced driver-assistance systems plans of their own.</p><p>Morgan Stanley went in a different direction with the Tesla (TSLA) developments. Notably, analyst Adam Jonas said investor concerns about the focus of Elon Musk on Tesla (TSLA) could be alleviated after the China trip. Jonas said achieving a potential détente with the Chinese government on such areas as autonomous driving/FSD is surprising and deserves greater research and understanding.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Big Rally on China Developments Is Called Overdone by Wells Fargo</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Big Rally on China Developments Is Called Overdone by Wells Fargo\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-30 16:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4095786-teslas-big-rally-on-china-developments-is-called-overdone-by-wells-fargo><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a big rally on Monday, with shares up 15% after Elon Musk's surprise visit to China and the announcement of an expansion of the company's partnership with Baidu (BIDU).Wells ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4095786-teslas-big-rally-on-china-developments-is-called-overdone-by-wells-fargo\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89888":"百度集团-SWR","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK1588":"回港中概股","BYDDF":"BYD Co., Ltd.","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","BIDU":"百度","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK1587":"次新股","LI":"理想汽车","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","XIACF":"Xiaomi Corp.","LU0043850808.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","09888":"百度集团-SW","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0856984785.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"ACH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1115378108.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Emerging Markets Dynamic AS SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4095786-teslas-big-rally-on-china-developments-is-called-overdone-by-wells-fargo","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2431848642","content_text":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a big rally on Monday, with shares up 15% after Elon Musk's surprise visit to China and the announcement of an expansion of the company's partnership with Baidu (BIDU).Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said he was surprised by the big share price move on Monday, given the firm sees limited EPS impact and with deal details far from certain.\"The partnership with Baidu helped ease China regulators' concerns over data security. However, there're no details of the partnership in terms of economics & data sharing. Also, TSLA's FSD system is vision-only with decisions that are not dependent on mapping, so Baidu's role in the FSD tech is unclear.\"Langan also warned that there could be restrictions on sharing data, which could limit Tesla's (TSLA) ability to leverage the tech progress it has seen in the U.S.There is also the glaring point that Chinese electric vehicle makers are fast followers and could undercut Tesla (TSLA) on pricing. Advanced driver-assistance systems are already going mainstream in China, with XPeng (XPEV) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) two of the notable players. Li Auto (LI) and BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) also have advanced driver-assistance systems plans of their own.Morgan Stanley went in a different direction with the Tesla (TSLA) developments. Notably, analyst Adam Jonas said investor concerns about the focus of Elon Musk on Tesla (TSLA) could be alleviated after the China trip. Jonas said achieving a potential détente with the Chinese government on such areas as autonomous driving/FSD is surprising and deserves greater research and understanding.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284192333799704,"gmtCreate":1710398902822,"gmtModify":1710399219829,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holding on to 13.5k since $15","listText":"Holding on to 13.5k since $15","text":"Holding on to 13.5k since $15","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284192333799704","repostId":"2419163746","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":244364819083280,"gmtCreate":1700683400830,"gmtModify":1700684097440,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sore loser&nbsp;","listText":"Sore loser&nbsp;","text":"Sore loser","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244364819083280","repostId":"2385857498","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199829394473000,"gmtCreate":1689828056518,"gmtModify":1689829620561,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The author does not have any credibility","listText":"The author does not have any credibility","text":"The author does not have any credibility","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199829394473000","repostId":"2352050694","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":398196983173248,"gmtCreate":1738241168857,"gmtModify":1738241172112,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP. You will lose a lot of money.&nbsp;","listText":"RIP. You will lose a lot of money.&nbsp;","text":"RIP. You will lose a lot of money.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398196983173248","repostId":"1105965404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105965404","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738239194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105965404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-30 20:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons To Short The Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105965404","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's stock is detached from reality as it trades at an irrationally exuberant price.The rise of macroeconomic risks makes it possible for the company to lose its growth momentum and for t","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3752926401\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir&#39;s stock is detached from reality as it trades at an irrationally exuberant price.</p></li><li><p>The rise of macroeconomic risks makes it possible for the company to lose its growth momentum and for the stock to decrease in value.</p></li><li><p>We have recently opened a short position in PLTR.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/554bfffe59edb9acf6bf12d15a231da8\" alt=\"Palantir Technologies\" title=\"Palantir Technologies\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Palantir Technologies</span></p><p>We recently opened a short position in Palantir as we believe that the downside for its stock is significant. Last year we closed our previous short position at a loss and said in our latest article that while Palantir is greatly overvalued, we would wait for the right time to reopen the position. It was the right call to make, since Palantir&#39;s stock is currently up over 15% after our latest article was published.</p><p>However, we also believe that the time to act again has come. In this article, we will present three major reasons why we&#39;re shorting Palantir, the risks to our short position, and our action plan under different scenarios.</p><h2 id=\"id_3785883\">Reason To Short Palantir #1: The Stock Price Is Detached From Reality</h2><p>If we look closely at the performance of Palantir&#39;s stock in 2024, we will see that its rise in the second half of the year was fueled by positive Q2 and Q3 earnings reports. First, Palantir increased in the Q2 report its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 to between $2.742 and $2.750 billion in August, which helped its stock rise above $30 per share for the first time since 2021. Then, in the Q3 report, the company once again increased its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 to between $2.805 and $2.809 billion, which translates to a Y/Y growth rate of nearly 26%.</p><p>As the annual revenue outlook has been increased by around $60 million in the Q3 report in comparison to the outlook in the Q2 report, the market has positively reacted to it and helped Palantir to increase its market capitalization by over $50 billion in a few months. Right now, Palantir has a market capitalization of around $180 billion at the time of this writing.</p><p>Although Palantir&#39;s performance has been impressive in the last year, we don&#39;t believe that the performance justifies such an aggressive increase in capitalization. As of now, Palantir has a P/E of over 200x, while the sector has a P/E of only 26x. The current P/E of the S&amp;P 500 Index is only 28x. Those multiples show that Palantir&#39;s stock is detached from reality.</p><p>The combination of all of those factors makes Palantir an extremely overvalued company. In our previous article, we created a valuation model with pretty optimistic assumptions to see how big Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value could be under one of the most bullish scenarios. That model showed that Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value is only $23.27 per share.</p><p>We decided to take a step further and change some of the assumptions in this article to truly figure out Palantir&#39;s full potential to make sure that even under the most extreme assumptions, the upside for its stock at the current market price is not there.</p><p>The assumptions table below underwent several changes in comparison to the previous model. One of the most important things that we did in comparison to the previous model is we changed the tax rate in our model from 21% to 15%. The 21% rate is the current standard corporate rate in the United States. However, the potential tax reform under the Trump administration could decrease the tax rate to only 15%. Since our model includes pretty bullish assumptions, we decided to use the 15% for now.</p><p>We also slightly changed the assumptions in the tables that calculate the discount rate. We updated the risk-free rate in our cost of equity calculation because of the rising treasury yields and changed the market cap, which increased since the release of our latest article.</p><p>The share price in the entry data table has also been updated. Everything else remained the same as in the last article.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5f3850d207fc775c3328cd2d1dd4489\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</span></p><p>In the forecast table below, we assume a 30% sales growth rate in FY24. This is the same rate as in the previous model. It is also above the management&#39;s current expectations of ~26%, but there&#39;s a possibility that Palantir will exceed expectations in Q4, which would result in higher sales for the year. For all the other years in the forecast table, we assume a gradual improvement in sales. This is above the overall expectations of a less than 25% growth rate in the following years, but it will help us understand Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value under the most extreme assumptions.</p><p>The EBIT margin remained the same as in the last model, and the tax rate decreased to 15%. The bottom part of the forecast table is mostly unchanged from our recent model.</p><p>Under those assumptions, our model shows that Palantir&#39;s enterprise value is $61.2 billion. At the same time, its equity value is $65.78 billion, which translates to an intrinsic value of $26.74 per share. While our improved assumptions led to the higher intrinsic value, we can still see that Palantir is extremely overvalued, and its current stock price is detached from reality.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3188adefb59abbb65b3ad9d7bbf1a5a\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3342679600\">Reason To Short Palantir #2: The Macro Risks Are Increasing</h2><p>The potential worsening of the macroeconomic environment is another thing that can push Palantir&#39;s share price lower. In 2022, when inflation was rampant, the stock market was not performing well and Palantir&#39;s shares were traded mostly at single digits. At the beginning of 2023, the disinflationary process began, which helped revive the stock market growth and improve the economic forecasts. While the disinflationary process has been ongoing to this day, there&#39;s a risk that we could experience a return to the inflationary environment. Here&#39;s what the December Fed minutes stated:</p><blockquote><p><em>With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation,</em> <strong><em>and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated.</em></strong></p></blockquote><p>The potential policy changes likely mean the implementation of Trump&#39;s tariffs, which are expected to be imposed on February 1 on goods from various countries that trade with the United States. The tariffs over the long term might lead to the revival of inflation and once again prompt the Federal Reserve to enact a more hawkish policy that would likely diminish the growth outlook. This could negatively affect Palantir&#39;s outlook and lead to the depreciation of its stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_318610859\">Reason To Short Palantir #3: The Stock Is Losing Its Momentum</h2><p>Relying solely on fundamentals is not the way to go in the current market environment. In our latest article on Palantir, we said that the company is already extremely overvalued, but decided not to open a short position at that time because the stock has been experiencing an upward trend.</p><p>However, recently, Palantir&#39;s stock began to lose its momentum, which was a signal for us to act. Right now, the stock is range-bound between $60 and $85 per share. It failed to break the resistance level around $85 per share and reach new highs a couple of times already, as the selling of shares has been intense around that level.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aff7c2b152314d29b766791eac7a2755\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s stock price (Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s stock price (Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s stock price (Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p>If Palantir&#39;s stock once again fails to break the current resistance level in the foreseeable future, then we could expect a depreciation to its support level at around $60 per share, which already happened a couple of weeks ago. If the support level at around $60 per share is broken, then there&#39;s a possibility of a selloff to the next support level at around $40 per share. If that happens, we will be covering our position during the depreciation to realize a profit.</p><p>If Palantir&#39;s stock manages to overcome the resistance level that&#39;s around $85 per share, then the stock will reach another all-time high and will look for a new resistance level. We committed less than 5% of our portfolio to this short position, so we would have enough room to wait for the stock to find that new resistance level and figure out our next move. Our stop loss is above $100 per share.</p><h2 id=\"id_4151814212\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>On February 3, Palantir will release its Q4 earnings report. There&#39;s a possibility that the company will exceed its annual outlook that was presented in the Q3 report and will also provide an outlook for 2025 that&#39;s much higher than the current street consensus. If that&#39;s the case, then we might see a further rise in share price, as it happened after the release of Q2 and Q3 reports last year.</p><p>The macro risks might also subside if the global economy manages to overcome the tariffs and trade war risks. The latest report by the OECD forecasts a global GDP growth rate of 3.3% in 2025.</p><p>As such, the potential better outlook along with a possible better macroeconomic environment could once again give a boost to Palantir&#39;s shares and undermine our bearish thesis.</p><h2 id=\"id_3793310222\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>In our opinion, the combination of weak fundamentals, rising macro risks, and a stock losing its momentum create a perfect opportunity to open a short position in Palantir. There&#39;s a risk to our short position if the fundamentals significantly improve or the macro challenges won&#39;t materialize and result in the appreciation of shares.</p><p>However, after weighing all the opportunities and risks, we believe that shorting Palantir makes sense at its current price, especially since the cost of borrowing its shares is less than 1%. The short position also represents less than 5% of our portfolio, which ensures that the risk of losing all of our capital is minimal in the worst-case scenario.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons To Short The Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons To Short The Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-30 20:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753204-palantir-3-reasons-to-short-the-pltr-stock><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's stock is detached from reality as it trades at an irrationally exuberant price.The rise of macroeconomic risks makes it possible for the company to lose its growth momentum and for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753204-palantir-3-reasons-to-short-the-pltr-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4753204-palantir-3-reasons-to-short-the-pltr-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105965404","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's stock is detached from reality as it trades at an irrationally exuberant price.The rise of macroeconomic risks makes it possible for the company to lose its growth momentum and for the stock to decrease in value.We have recently opened a short position in PLTR.Palantir TechnologiesWe recently opened a short position in Palantir as we believe that the downside for its stock is significant. Last year we closed our previous short position at a loss and said in our latest article that while Palantir is greatly overvalued, we would wait for the right time to reopen the position. It was the right call to make, since Palantir's stock is currently up over 15% after our latest article was published.However, we also believe that the time to act again has come. In this article, we will present three major reasons why we're shorting Palantir, the risks to our short position, and our action plan under different scenarios.Reason To Short Palantir #1: The Stock Price Is Detached From RealityIf we look closely at the performance of Palantir's stock in 2024, we will see that its rise in the second half of the year was fueled by positive Q2 and Q3 earnings reports. First, Palantir increased in the Q2 report its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 to between $2.742 and $2.750 billion in August, which helped its stock rise above $30 per share for the first time since 2021. Then, in the Q3 report, the company once again increased its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024 to between $2.805 and $2.809 billion, which translates to a Y/Y growth rate of nearly 26%.As the annual revenue outlook has been increased by around $60 million in the Q3 report in comparison to the outlook in the Q2 report, the market has positively reacted to it and helped Palantir to increase its market capitalization by over $50 billion in a few months. Right now, Palantir has a market capitalization of around $180 billion at the time of this writing.Although Palantir's performance has been impressive in the last year, we don't believe that the performance justifies such an aggressive increase in capitalization. As of now, Palantir has a P/E of over 200x, while the sector has a P/E of only 26x. The current P/E of the S&P 500 Index is only 28x. Those multiples show that Palantir's stock is detached from reality.The combination of all of those factors makes Palantir an extremely overvalued company. In our previous article, we created a valuation model with pretty optimistic assumptions to see how big Palantir's intrinsic value could be under one of the most bullish scenarios. That model showed that Palantir's intrinsic value is only $23.27 per share.We decided to take a step further and change some of the assumptions in this article to truly figure out Palantir's full potential to make sure that even under the most extreme assumptions, the upside for its stock at the current market price is not there.The assumptions table below underwent several changes in comparison to the previous model. One of the most important things that we did in comparison to the previous model is we changed the tax rate in our model from 21% to 15%. The 21% rate is the current standard corporate rate in the United States. However, the potential tax reform under the Trump administration could decrease the tax rate to only 15%. Since our model includes pretty bullish assumptions, we decided to use the 15% for now.We also slightly changed the assumptions in the tables that calculate the discount rate. We updated the risk-free rate in our cost of equity calculation because of the rising treasury yields and changed the market cap, which increased since the release of our latest article.The share price in the entry data table has also been updated. Everything else remained the same as in the last article.Palantir's valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)In the forecast table below, we assume a 30% sales growth rate in FY24. This is the same rate as in the previous model. It is also above the management's current expectations of ~26%, but there's a possibility that Palantir will exceed expectations in Q4, which would result in higher sales for the year. For all the other years in the forecast table, we assume a gradual improvement in sales. This is above the overall expectations of a less than 25% growth rate in the following years, but it will help us understand Palantir's intrinsic value under the most extreme assumptions.The EBIT margin remained the same as in the last model, and the tax rate decreased to 15%. The bottom part of the forecast table is mostly unchanged from our recent model.Under those assumptions, our model shows that Palantir's enterprise value is $61.2 billion. At the same time, its equity value is $65.78 billion, which translates to an intrinsic value of $26.74 per share. While our improved assumptions led to the higher intrinsic value, we can still see that Palantir is extremely overvalued, and its current stock price is detached from reality.Palantir's valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Reason To Short Palantir #2: The Macro Risks Are IncreasingThe potential worsening of the macroeconomic environment is another thing that can push Palantir's share price lower. In 2022, when inflation was rampant, the stock market was not performing well and Palantir's shares were traded mostly at single digits. At the beginning of 2023, the disinflationary process began, which helped revive the stock market growth and improve the economic forecasts. While the disinflationary process has been ongoing to this day, there's a risk that we could experience a return to the inflationary environment. Here's what the December Fed minutes stated:With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated.The potential policy changes likely mean the implementation of Trump's tariffs, which are expected to be imposed on February 1 on goods from various countries that trade with the United States. The tariffs over the long term might lead to the revival of inflation and once again prompt the Federal Reserve to enact a more hawkish policy that would likely diminish the growth outlook. This could negatively affect Palantir's outlook and lead to the depreciation of its stock.Reason To Short Palantir #3: The Stock Is Losing Its MomentumRelying solely on fundamentals is not the way to go in the current market environment. In our latest article on Palantir, we said that the company is already extremely overvalued, but decided not to open a short position at that time because the stock has been experiencing an upward trend.However, recently, Palantir's stock began to lose its momentum, which was a signal for us to act. Right now, the stock is range-bound between $60 and $85 per share. It failed to break the resistance level around $85 per share and reach new highs a couple of times already, as the selling of shares has been intense around that level.Palantir's stock price (Seeking Alpha)If Palantir's stock once again fails to break the current resistance level in the foreseeable future, then we could expect a depreciation to its support level at around $60 per share, which already happened a couple of weeks ago. If the support level at around $60 per share is broken, then there's a possibility of a selloff to the next support level at around $40 per share. If that happens, we will be covering our position during the depreciation to realize a profit.If Palantir's stock manages to overcome the resistance level that's around $85 per share, then the stock will reach another all-time high and will look for a new resistance level. We committed less than 5% of our portfolio to this short position, so we would have enough room to wait for the stock to find that new resistance level and figure out our next move. Our stop loss is above $100 per share.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisOn February 3, Palantir will release its Q4 earnings report. There's a possibility that the company will exceed its annual outlook that was presented in the Q3 report and will also provide an outlook for 2025 that's much higher than the current street consensus. If that's the case, then we might see a further rise in share price, as it happened after the release of Q2 and Q3 reports last year.The macro risks might also subside if the global economy manages to overcome the tariffs and trade war risks. The latest report by the OECD forecasts a global GDP growth rate of 3.3% in 2025.As such, the potential better outlook along with a possible better macroeconomic environment could once again give a boost to Palantir's shares and undermine our bearish thesis.Final ThoughtsIn our opinion, the combination of weak fundamentals, rising macro risks, and a stock losing its momentum create a perfect opportunity to open a short position in Palantir. There's a risk to our short position if the fundamentals significantly improve or the macro challenges won't materialize and result in the appreciation of shares.However, after weighing all the opportunities and risks, we believe that shorting Palantir makes sense at its current price, especially since the cost of borrowing its shares is less than 1%. The short position also represents less than 5% of our portfolio, which ensures that the risk of losing all of our capital is minimal in the worst-case scenario.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378260410806560,"gmtCreate":1733391512450,"gmtModify":1733391798822,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Palantir will continue to soar to 100+. Don't listen to this kind of useless analyst&nbsp;","listText":"Palantir will continue to soar to 100+. Don't listen to this kind of useless analyst&nbsp;","text":"Palantir will continue to soar to 100+. Don't listen to this kind of useless analyst","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378260410806560","repostId":"1122370904","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4098098188330620","authorId":"4098098188330620","name":"MojoStellar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e757a91c3f486e5fb2bd8b91f998420","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4098098188330620","authorIdStr":"4098098188330620"},"content":"you spot on, Sir. May you harvest abundance of good stocks this festival month. [Call] [Call] [Call] [USD] [USD] [USD]","text":"you spot on, Sir. May you harvest abundance of good stocks this festival month. [Call] [Call] [Call] [USD] [USD] [USD]","html":"you spot on, Sir. May you harvest abundance of good stocks this festival month. [Call] [Call] [Call] [USD] [USD] [USD]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":393214330245512,"gmtCreate":1737037080689,"gmtModify":1737037964404,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy hoping for Palantir price to drop then he Quietly buy back . Scammer&nbsp;","listText":"This guy hoping for Palantir price to drop then he Quietly buy back . Scammer&nbsp;","text":"This guy hoping for Palantir price to drop then he Quietly buy back . Scammer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393214330245512","repostId":"1164318115","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164318115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737036000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164318115?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-16 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Great Business At A Wrong Price - I Sold My Shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164318115","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir is a leading player in monetizing the AI revolution, serving nearly 630 customers consisting of large public and commercial organisations globally (mainly in the US).Founded in 2003, t","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1395999078\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir is a leading player in monetizing the AI revolution, serving nearly 630 customers consisting of large public and commercial organisations globally (mainly in the US).</p></li><li><p>Founded in 2003, the Company initially focused on the public sector but has expanded to commercial sectors facing similar challenges.</p></li><li><p>PLTR reached a pivotal point early in 2023, when I first established my position, due to a successful deployment of the artificial intelligence platform showcasing tremendous cross-sell and growth potential.</p></li><li><p>Within this article, I explained my rationale behind selling all my shares at an average price of ~$75 per share despite the deep respect for Palantir&#39;s team and its achievements.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92d92135e0d8cd56b21f40d970084e15\" alt=\"bunhill\" title=\"bunhill\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>bunhill</span></p><p>Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) is an upcoming star and one of the best businesses when it comes to the capabilities of monetizing the AI revolution. Palantir serves mostly US customers (66% of revenue). During Q1-Q3 2024, it served nearly 630 customers (vs. 453 in the previous year).</p><p>Palantir was founded over 20 years ago (2003) with an aim to facilitate US counterterrorism operations. Since then, it&#39;s been focusing on the public sector and serves various government bodies across the world, but it has also expanded to the commercial sector within which large businesses often face similar struggles when it comes to data:</p><blockquote><p>For over a decade, Gotham has surfaced insights for global defense agencies, the intelligence community, disaster relief organizations and beyond. Foundry is becoming a central operating system not only for individual institutions but also for entire industries. Apollo, which we began offering as a commercial solution in 2021, is a cloud-agnostic, single control layer that coordinates ongoing delivery of new features, security updates, and platform configurations, helping to ensure the continuous operation of critical systems. Apollo allows our customers to run their software in virtually any environment.</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/893f2de122cd5efcf5893a7ce73380fd\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Over the first two years of PLTR&#39;s trading history, its market cap jumped as high as $60B, quickly retracted to ~$40–50B and later came crashing down to ~$15–20B range that lasted until Q1 2023. However...</p><h2 id=\"id_904035619\">Palantir Turned The Tables In 2023</h2><p>In 2023, Palantir joined forces with the ongoing and accelerating AI revolution driven by the likes of NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), OpenAI, Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), etc. However, the result of Palantir&#39;s involvement in the AI very much differs from the abovementioned entities.</p><p>While NVIDIA facilitates the revolution with its state-of-the-art hardware, META increases the performance of marketing campaigns on its platforms, and AMZN with MSFT integrates AI-driven solutions to their existing products (AWS or Azure / Copilot), Palantir expanded its product offering with another platform—Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP):</p><blockquote><p>AIP enables responsible AI-advantage across the enterprise by using primary, core components built to effectively activate LLMs and other AI within any organization. It provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial LLMs that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations&#39; actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. AIP can allow organizations to power operational use of AI and LLMs with interfaces for decision making, feedback, and safe hand-off among AI agents and human operators with wide-spectrum security and audit controls, which allow for granular control over model usage and integrated human review checkpoints throughout the workflows. AIP is designed to be seamlessly bundled with existing Palantir offerings such as the Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo platforms.</p></blockquote><p>The fact that AIP is easily integrated with Palantir&#39;s other platforms largely facilitated the deployment process and enabled cross-sell opportunities to its existing clients. With Palantir&#39;s sales &amp; marketing efforts oriented around discussions with its clients, the Company has always been solution-oriented and aimed its platforms to respond to specific challenges faced by government bodies/large enterprises. That approach was also adopted at the early deployment stages of AIP, as Palantir held boot camps related to AIP, so its customers could witness first-hand the solution they were waiting for. Especially as most of Palantir&#39;s customers are risk-averse, with several cases of investing millions (or billions in some instances) in solutions that were never adopted.</p><p>With the &#39;quite a successful&#39; adoption of AIP, many investors already saw their window of opportunity. Palantir was (and I believe still is) accompanied by outstanding value drivers, which I cannot stress enough:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A long-standing facilitation of public and commercial customers with increasing share of the commercial segment proves the top-tier quality of Palantir&#39;s platforms.</p></li><li><p>Palantir doesn&#39;t really have strong competitors and is far ahead of its &#39;peers&#39;.</p></li><li><p>Palantir showcased one of the most successful ways of monetizing the ongoing AI revolution.</p></li><li><p>Software-oriented business model, reflecting the scalability of its platforms across the dynamically increasing group of customers with high cross-sell and up-sell potential.</p></li></ul><p>The market recognised the abovementioned value drivers. I myself was lucky enough to establish a relatively large position in Palantir at an average cost of ~$10 per share during the first half of 2023. I made a few additions along the way, but I stopped increasing my position once the stock price exceeded $25 per share, as Palantir&#39;s share in my portfolio started to exceed my comfort level (I&#39;m a big advocate of diversification and saw too many ugly situations resulting from high concentration—whether in terms of portfolio or business performance).</p><p>When I was buying Palantir, I expected a solid upside and believed I would stick with the business for a long time. However, as its valuation recorded a completely outstanding growth in 2024, my primary assumption couldn&#39;t hold true—leading us to the next point.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b9994389a97250ba8ffd3d6aa1037ef\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3518363501\">This Week, I Sold All My Shares At ~$75 Per Share</h2><p>I feel it&#39;s appropriate to reserve a brief passage of my approach to investing to shed light on the rationale behind my exit from Palantir. I&#39;m an M&amp;A advisor (a fancy name for advising on buying and selling businesses) and an advocate of the timeless wisdom of investing legends such as Benjamin Graham or Warren Buffett. I tend to focus on the margin of safety, risk-to-reward profile, diversification, and often engage in income-producing businesses.</p><p>However, I&#39;m also a technological enthusiast with a particular interest in the ongoing AI revolution with established positions in leading players (MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, and until a few days ago... Palantir).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b3e6fdbaae97f86f240335ddb2693e1\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"704\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>To put it briefly, I lost comfort with holding on to Palantir at these prices. Its share in my portfolio reached a concerning level even though I stopped adding at the beginning of 2024.</p><p>It no longer provides investors with the margin of safety it used to, and I wouldn&#39;t feel comfortable with advising anybody on buying Palantir at these prices at the current stage of the business development. Before we jump to conclusions, let me state a few things.</p><p><strong>Yes</strong>, I believe Palantir is uniquely positioned to be a major technological player and has tremendous growth prospects ahead.</p><p><strong>No,</strong> I don&#39;t share the common belief that its growth is decelerating.</p><p><strong>However,</strong> even with upheld growth—I don&#39;t consider Palantir a $150B+ business (yet). It has quite a long way to go until it grows into its valuation. Please review the table and chart below, presenting Palantir&#39;s P/S ratio estimated through its current valuation and consensus sales estimated for the upcoming years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5426fecdf2b8d0a5e04c96f1cf43c065\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>Please note that the projected sales revenue growth is pretty much in line with Palantir&#39;s growth history during the last several quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8bc1b6d1f231160085205a5b36c70ad7\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s Q3 Earnings Presentation\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s Q3 Earnings Presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"161\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s Q3 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p>For reference, as some may expect higher growth in the upcoming years, let&#39;s assume the highest y/o/y growth ratio Palantir experienced as our base scenario for 2025 and beyond.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/249d080814bfeac0c6b7243cf59b548a\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>And now, let&#39;s take a look at some of the leaders in their respective fields, facilitating the AI revolution and the technological trends adopted worldwide: NVDA, MSFT, and META. Similarly, we took their current valuation and divided it by consensus sales estimates for the upcoming years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d8a68271dc55d4235578638b92f689d\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/><span>Author</span></p><p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> Even though the abovementioned businesses <em>DO NOT COMPARE</em> to Palantir and are at <em>VERY DIFFERENT GROWTH STAGES</em> as Palantir has a dynamic growth path ahead, I don&#39;t believe it justifies its current valuation—let&#39;s remember that each presented business holds leadership, well-established, and still growing position. Should Palantir deliver the expected growth metrics, it will certainly grow into its current valuation, but the place where the business is right now and the growth expectations set ahead don&#39;t leave much room for future upside from buying Palantir right now.</p><p>To put it frankly, I can&#39;t uphold a bullish outlook and expectations of meaningful upside potential for a business generating $2.8B in sales (even accounting for 20–30% growth prospects) valued at $150–160B.</p><p>I expect a downward movement from current levels and will certainly consider establishing my position once again, but for now—it was a time for me to take profits. I&#39;m aware of the large following of Palantir, and it doesn&#39;t surprise me—the business is set to record incredible performance in the upcoming years. However, business development is one thing and the price you pay for it is another.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/329c2429e2ecf3e8466feeda7e82ae6c\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"252\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>For further reference, Wall Street Analysts expect very limited upside potential with the highest price target of $80 per share, an average of $45 (implying over 32% downside risk), and the lowest one (completely detached from Palantir&#39;s potential in my view—overly pessimistic) at $11 per share.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82d7a1004c95483aabe93f1d4b37fc26\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>It&#39;s also worth mentioning that more bearish voices have been raised recently, with Ark Invest unloading over 196 thousand shares and Morgan Stanley (MS) initiating its coverage with a price target of $60 per share.</p><h2 id=\"id_26700235\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>For transparency, I first established my position in Palantir at the beginning of 2023. It was quite large, and after I added a few times, I stopped reinvesting once the stock price increased over $25 per share at the beginning of 2024 as Palantir&#39;s share in my portfolio started to exceed my comfort level. My final average cost basis amounted to ~$11.6 per share (including several additions) and this week, I decided to sell all my shares at ~$75 per share.</p><p>As Benjamin Graham likes to portray with its wonderful &#39;Mr Market&#39; metaphor, the market often gets overenthusiastic with dynamically growing businesses, leading to valuation detached from fundamentals and growth prospects.</p><p>With all the respect to Palantir&#39;s outstanding team capable of creating great platforms serving leading institutions and businesses globally and tremendous growth potential, I consider its valuation detached from fundamentals and growth prospects. Palantir still has much business development to achieve until it grows into its current ~$150–160B valuation. I will follow Palantir closely and look forward to establishing another position at a different stage of its development.</p><p>I recognise numerous authors and analysts expressing continuous optimism and appreciation of Palantir&#39;s achievements. I share the appreciation, but as &#39;each to their own&#39;—I can&#39;t share the expectations of the upside potential justifying the risk accompanying investing in any business generating ~2.8B of sales at over $150B valuation (even with 20–30% growth rates for the upcoming years).</p><h4 id=\"id_1997545293\">Other Considerations</h4><p>Please note that I haven&#39;t established a short position in Palantir. I sold my shares and currently have no position in the Company. Should you be willing to take a step further than selling your currently owned shares and short the stock, please keep in mind that it may require deep pockets and expose you to additional risk factors.</p><p>Regarding Palantir&#39;s devoted bulls, please keep in mind that the stock price volatility and overvaluation are not sole risk factors accompanying Palantir, as it also has exposure to:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Uncertainty regarding interest rate changes and their impact on the market as a whole.</p></li><li><p>Risk of other players entering the market and creating a competitive environment.</p></li><li><p>Uncertainty regarding the state of the economy and geopolitical tensions.</p></li><li><p>Risk of being unable to deliver solutions/updates/errors fixed in a timely and sufficient manner within the ever-changing technological space.</p></li></ul><p>Should you be willing to hold on to your shares or invest in Palantir—please make sure not to put all your eggs into one basket—diversification is key, especially within such volatile industries.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Great Business At A Wrong Price - I Sold My Shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Great Business At A Wrong Price - I Sold My Shares\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-16 22:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749799-palantir-great-business-at-wrong-price-sold-my-shares><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir is a leading player in monetizing the AI revolution, serving nearly 630 customers consisting of large public and commercial organisations globally (mainly in the US).Founded in 2003, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749799-palantir-great-business-at-wrong-price-sold-my-shares\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749799-palantir-great-business-at-wrong-price-sold-my-shares","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164318115","content_text":"SummaryPalantir is a leading player in monetizing the AI revolution, serving nearly 630 customers consisting of large public and commercial organisations globally (mainly in the US).Founded in 2003, the Company initially focused on the public sector but has expanded to commercial sectors facing similar challenges.PLTR reached a pivotal point early in 2023, when I first established my position, due to a successful deployment of the artificial intelligence platform showcasing tremendous cross-sell and growth potential.Within this article, I explained my rationale behind selling all my shares at an average price of ~$75 per share despite the deep respect for Palantir's team and its achievements.bunhillPalantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) is an upcoming star and one of the best businesses when it comes to the capabilities of monetizing the AI revolution. Palantir serves mostly US customers (66% of revenue). During Q1-Q3 2024, it served nearly 630 customers (vs. 453 in the previous year).Palantir was founded over 20 years ago (2003) with an aim to facilitate US counterterrorism operations. Since then, it's been focusing on the public sector and serves various government bodies across the world, but it has also expanded to the commercial sector within which large businesses often face similar struggles when it comes to data:For over a decade, Gotham has surfaced insights for global defense agencies, the intelligence community, disaster relief organizations and beyond. Foundry is becoming a central operating system not only for individual institutions but also for entire industries. Apollo, which we began offering as a commercial solution in 2021, is a cloud-agnostic, single control layer that coordinates ongoing delivery of new features, security updates, and platform configurations, helping to ensure the continuous operation of critical systems. Apollo allows our customers to run their software in virtually any environment.Data by YChartsOver the first two years of PLTR's trading history, its market cap jumped as high as $60B, quickly retracted to ~$40–50B and later came crashing down to ~$15–20B range that lasted until Q1 2023. However...Palantir Turned The Tables In 2023In 2023, Palantir joined forces with the ongoing and accelerating AI revolution driven by the likes of NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), OpenAI, Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), etc. However, the result of Palantir's involvement in the AI very much differs from the abovementioned entities.While NVIDIA facilitates the revolution with its state-of-the-art hardware, META increases the performance of marketing campaigns on its platforms, and AMZN with MSFT integrates AI-driven solutions to their existing products (AWS or Azure / Copilot), Palantir expanded its product offering with another platform—Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP):AIP enables responsible AI-advantage across the enterprise by using primary, core components built to effectively activate LLMs and other AI within any organization. It provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial LLMs that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. AIP can allow organizations to power operational use of AI and LLMs with interfaces for decision making, feedback, and safe hand-off among AI agents and human operators with wide-spectrum security and audit controls, which allow for granular control over model usage and integrated human review checkpoints throughout the workflows. AIP is designed to be seamlessly bundled with existing Palantir offerings such as the Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo platforms.The fact that AIP is easily integrated with Palantir's other platforms largely facilitated the deployment process and enabled cross-sell opportunities to its existing clients. With Palantir's sales & marketing efforts oriented around discussions with its clients, the Company has always been solution-oriented and aimed its platforms to respond to specific challenges faced by government bodies/large enterprises. That approach was also adopted at the early deployment stages of AIP, as Palantir held boot camps related to AIP, so its customers could witness first-hand the solution they were waiting for. Especially as most of Palantir's customers are risk-averse, with several cases of investing millions (or billions in some instances) in solutions that were never adopted.With the 'quite a successful' adoption of AIP, many investors already saw their window of opportunity. Palantir was (and I believe still is) accompanied by outstanding value drivers, which I cannot stress enough:A long-standing facilitation of public and commercial customers with increasing share of the commercial segment proves the top-tier quality of Palantir's platforms.Palantir doesn't really have strong competitors and is far ahead of its 'peers'.Palantir showcased one of the most successful ways of monetizing the ongoing AI revolution.Software-oriented business model, reflecting the scalability of its platforms across the dynamically increasing group of customers with high cross-sell and up-sell potential.The market recognised the abovementioned value drivers. I myself was lucky enough to establish a relatively large position in Palantir at an average cost of ~$10 per share during the first half of 2023. I made a few additions along the way, but I stopped increasing my position once the stock price exceeded $25 per share, as Palantir's share in my portfolio started to exceed my comfort level (I'm a big advocate of diversification and saw too many ugly situations resulting from high concentration—whether in terms of portfolio or business performance).When I was buying Palantir, I expected a solid upside and believed I would stick with the business for a long time. However, as its valuation recorded a completely outstanding growth in 2024, my primary assumption couldn't hold true—leading us to the next point.Data by YChartsThis Week, I Sold All My Shares At ~$75 Per ShareI feel it's appropriate to reserve a brief passage of my approach to investing to shed light on the rationale behind my exit from Palantir. I'm an M&A advisor (a fancy name for advising on buying and selling businesses) and an advocate of the timeless wisdom of investing legends such as Benjamin Graham or Warren Buffett. I tend to focus on the margin of safety, risk-to-reward profile, diversification, and often engage in income-producing businesses.However, I'm also a technological enthusiast with a particular interest in the ongoing AI revolution with established positions in leading players (MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, and until a few days ago... Palantir).Seeking AlphaTo put it briefly, I lost comfort with holding on to Palantir at these prices. Its share in my portfolio reached a concerning level even though I stopped adding at the beginning of 2024.It no longer provides investors with the margin of safety it used to, and I wouldn't feel comfortable with advising anybody on buying Palantir at these prices at the current stage of the business development. Before we jump to conclusions, let me state a few things.Yes, I believe Palantir is uniquely positioned to be a major technological player and has tremendous growth prospects ahead.No, I don't share the common belief that its growth is decelerating.However, even with upheld growth—I don't consider Palantir a $150B+ business (yet). It has quite a long way to go until it grows into its valuation. Please review the table and chart below, presenting Palantir's P/S ratio estimated through its current valuation and consensus sales estimated for the upcoming years.AuthorPlease note that the projected sales revenue growth is pretty much in line with Palantir's growth history during the last several quarters.Palantir's Q3 Earnings PresentationFor reference, as some may expect higher growth in the upcoming years, let's assume the highest y/o/y growth ratio Palantir experienced as our base scenario for 2025 and beyond.AuthorAnd now, let's take a look at some of the leaders in their respective fields, facilitating the AI revolution and the technological trends adopted worldwide: NVDA, MSFT, and META. Similarly, we took their current valuation and divided it by consensus sales estimates for the upcoming years.AuthorConclusion: Even though the abovementioned businesses DO NOT COMPARE to Palantir and are at VERY DIFFERENT GROWTH STAGES as Palantir has a dynamic growth path ahead, I don't believe it justifies its current valuation—let's remember that each presented business holds leadership, well-established, and still growing position. Should Palantir deliver the expected growth metrics, it will certainly grow into its current valuation, but the place where the business is right now and the growth expectations set ahead don't leave much room for future upside from buying Palantir right now.To put it frankly, I can't uphold a bullish outlook and expectations of meaningful upside potential for a business generating $2.8B in sales (even accounting for 20–30% growth prospects) valued at $150–160B.I expect a downward movement from current levels and will certainly consider establishing my position once again, but for now—it was a time for me to take profits. I'm aware of the large following of Palantir, and it doesn't surprise me—the business is set to record incredible performance in the upcoming years. However, business development is one thing and the price you pay for it is another.Seeking AlphaFor further reference, Wall Street Analysts expect very limited upside potential with the highest price target of $80 per share, an average of $45 (implying over 32% downside risk), and the lowest one (completely detached from Palantir's potential in my view—overly pessimistic) at $11 per share.Seeking AlphaIt's also worth mentioning that more bearish voices have been raised recently, with Ark Invest unloading over 196 thousand shares and Morgan Stanley (MS) initiating its coverage with a price target of $60 per share.The Bottom LineFor transparency, I first established my position in Palantir at the beginning of 2023. It was quite large, and after I added a few times, I stopped reinvesting once the stock price increased over $25 per share at the beginning of 2024 as Palantir's share in my portfolio started to exceed my comfort level. My final average cost basis amounted to ~$11.6 per share (including several additions) and this week, I decided to sell all my shares at ~$75 per share.As Benjamin Graham likes to portray with its wonderful 'Mr Market' metaphor, the market often gets overenthusiastic with dynamically growing businesses, leading to valuation detached from fundamentals and growth prospects.With all the respect to Palantir's outstanding team capable of creating great platforms serving leading institutions and businesses globally and tremendous growth potential, I consider its valuation detached from fundamentals and growth prospects. Palantir still has much business development to achieve until it grows into its current ~$150–160B valuation. I will follow Palantir closely and look forward to establishing another position at a different stage of its development.I recognise numerous authors and analysts expressing continuous optimism and appreciation of Palantir's achievements. I share the appreciation, but as 'each to their own'—I can't share the expectations of the upside potential justifying the risk accompanying investing in any business generating ~2.8B of sales at over $150B valuation (even with 20–30% growth rates for the upcoming years).Other ConsiderationsPlease note that I haven't established a short position in Palantir. I sold my shares and currently have no position in the Company. Should you be willing to take a step further than selling your currently owned shares and short the stock, please keep in mind that it may require deep pockets and expose you to additional risk factors.Regarding Palantir's devoted bulls, please keep in mind that the stock price volatility and overvaluation are not sole risk factors accompanying Palantir, as it also has exposure to:Uncertainty regarding interest rate changes and their impact on the market as a whole.Risk of other players entering the market and creating a competitive environment.Uncertainty regarding the state of the economy and geopolitical tensions.Risk of being unable to deliver solutions/updates/errors fixed in a timely and sufficient manner within the ever-changing technological space.Should you be willing to hold on to your shares or invest in Palantir—please make sure not to put all your eggs into one basket—diversification is key, especially within such volatile industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4094001495024510","authorId":"4094001495024510","name":"Xingguo Li","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ff5843a1fff5ea4398d4fcd2beda32","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094001495024510","authorIdStr":"4094001495024510"},"content":"How do you know he quietly bought back?","text":"How do you know he quietly bought back?","html":"How do you know he quietly bought back?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328123225444488,"gmtCreate":1721138184510,"gmtModify":1721138190287,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No brain analyst&nbsp;","listText":"No brain analyst&nbsp;","text":"No brain analyst","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328123225444488","repostId":"1162176667","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372995203739896,"gmtCreate":1732073159693,"gmtModify":1732073162998,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"These are the same analyst who said it was too ex when the stock was right below $30. I am 318% up now. Holding 20k stocks&nbsp;","listText":"These are the same analyst who said it was too ex when the stock was right below $30. I am 318% up now. Holding 20k stocks&nbsp;","text":"These are the same analyst who said it was too ex when the stock was right below $30. I am 318% up now. Holding 20k stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372995203739896","repostId":"2484816924","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2484816924","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732068033,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2484816924?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-20 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Is Selling Palantir Stock. Here's Why That Makes Sense","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2484816924","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Cathie Wood of Ark Invest has been selling Palantir stock, despite it being the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.","content":"<ul style=\"\"><li><p>Cathie Wood has sold about 1.9 million shares of Palantir in the last two months.</p></li><li><p>During the period Wood trimmed her position, the stock rose almost 90%.</p></li><li><p>Palantir's valuation looks stretched right now, and taking profits off the table is perfectly reasonable.</p></li></ul><p>The artificial intelligence (AI) narrative is entering a new chapter, and it's time for the \"Magnificent Seven\" stocks to move over. Throughout 2024, investors have been presented with a host of new, emerging players that are working alongside big tech and have proven they are here to compete in the AI realm.</p><p>In my eyes, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies</a> has become the most interesting case study among smaller technology companies. So far in 2024, shares of Palantir have gained 283% as of this writing, and the company stands as the best-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500 this year.</p><p>And yet, as shares of Palantir continue to reach new highs, one notable investor has been dumping the stock in droves. I'm going to outline the moves Cathie Wood of Ark Invest is making, and detail why selling Palantir stock right now actually makes a lot of sense.</p><h2 id=\"id_3411456915\">Let's take a look at Wood's recent moves in Palantir</h2><p>One of the more interesting things about Ark Invest is that the firm publishes a breakdown of the stocks it buys and sells each trading day.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><th style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Date</p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Shares of PLTR Sold</p></th></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/11/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>184,051</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/13/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13,713</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/17/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,555</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/18/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32,772</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/20/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16,053</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/23/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7,747</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>09/25/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>62,809</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10/28/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>128,908</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10/30/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>372,730</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/01/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>227,699</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/04/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>158,457</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/05/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>211,203</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/07/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>264,513</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11/15/24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>197,847</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: Ark Invest, Cathiesark.com. Table by author.</p><p>According to that data, Wood and her team reduced their holdings of Palantir across Ark's various funds by roughly 1.9 million shares between Sept. 11 and Nov. 15.</p><h2 id=\"id_3295179883\">Why does selling Palantir stock make sense right now?</h2><p>Shares of Palantir have soared throughout 2024. But between Sept. 11 and Nov. 15 (the period of Ark's selling), Palantir stock gained 89%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a603544fbfbffb1609f39e12b0def85\" alt=\"Data by YCharts.\" title=\"Data by YCharts.\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>In the chart above, the date of Palantir's third-quarter earnings release is marked with a purple circle with the letter \"E\" in the center. As you can see, Palantir stock has risen considerably following that blowout Q3 report.</p><p>While such gains have been great for Palantir shareholders, the magnitude of these upswings should come with a hard look at the fundamentals. As illustrated in the graph below, Palantir's price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 60 is the highest among leading software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses -- and it's not particularly close, either.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b30366a6c44b221bc23151756e45e7f\" alt=\"Data by YCharts.\" title=\"Data by YCharts.\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"541\"><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>I cannot stress this point enough: Palantir is trading at more 60 times sales, <em>not</em> <em>earnings</em>. While Palantir is indeed generating positive net income and free cash flow, both measures are still relatively small right now.</p><p>Whenever a stock experiences a pronounced rally in a short time period, it's appropriate for fund managers to rebalance their portfolio. In this case, Wood's sales of Palantir coincide with the company being added to the S&amp;P 500 as well as an impressive earnings report. Both of these events became positive near-term catalysts for Palantir stock.</p><p>It's possible Palantir's weighting across the different Ark funds was becoming too high, so Wood and team decided to trim the position and take some profits off the table. While Palantir has demonstrated an ability to accelerate both revenue and profits, the valuation expansion seen in the chart above suggests the stock may be overbought right now.</p><h2 id=\"id_2399248127\">Remember to think long-term</h2><p>As a Palantir shareholder, I very much believe in the company's future thanks to lucrative partnerships with big tech firms such as <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Oracle</strong>. Moreover, Palantir is quietly becoming a major force in the U.S. military's defense tech effort -- an opportunity Mordor Intelligence estimates will be worth more than $60 billion by 2029.</p><p>That said, Palantir stock is undoubtedly pricey right now. If you've been holding the stock for a long time, consider trimming your position at this point. Although there's still potential upside for Palantir, reducing your position at these valuation levels can also make sense.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Is Selling Palantir Stock. Here's Why That Makes Sense</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Is Selling Palantir Stock. Here's Why That Makes Sense\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-20 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/19/cathie-wood-is-selling-palantir-stock-heres-why-th/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood has sold about 1.9 million shares of Palantir in the last two months.During the period Wood trimmed her position, the stock rose almost 90%.Palantir's valuation looks stretched right now, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/19/cathie-wood-is-selling-palantir-stock-heres-why-th/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4543":"AI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/19/cathie-wood-is-selling-palantir-stock-heres-why-th/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2484816924","content_text":"Cathie Wood has sold about 1.9 million shares of Palantir in the last two months.During the period Wood trimmed her position, the stock rose almost 90%.Palantir's valuation looks stretched right now, and taking profits off the table is perfectly reasonable.The artificial intelligence (AI) narrative is entering a new chapter, and it's time for the \"Magnificent Seven\" stocks to move over. Throughout 2024, investors have been presented with a host of new, emerging players that are working alongside big tech and have proven they are here to compete in the AI realm.In my eyes, Palantir Technologies has become the most interesting case study among smaller technology companies. So far in 2024, shares of Palantir have gained 283% as of this writing, and the company stands as the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.And yet, as shares of Palantir continue to reach new highs, one notable investor has been dumping the stock in droves. I'm going to outline the moves Cathie Wood of Ark Invest is making, and detail why selling Palantir stock right now actually makes a lot of sense.Let's take a look at Wood's recent moves in PalantirOne of the more interesting things about Ark Invest is that the firm publishes a breakdown of the stocks it buys and sells each trading day.DateShares of PLTR Sold09/11/24184,05109/13/2413,71309/17/248,55509/18/2432,77209/20/2416,05309/23/247,74709/25/2462,80910/28/24128,90810/30/24372,73011/01/24227,69911/04/24158,45711/05/24211,20311/07/24264,51311/15/24197,847Data source: Ark Invest, Cathiesark.com. Table by author.According to that data, Wood and her team reduced their holdings of Palantir across Ark's various funds by roughly 1.9 million shares between Sept. 11 and Nov. 15.Why does selling Palantir stock make sense right now?Shares of Palantir have soared throughout 2024. But between Sept. 11 and Nov. 15 (the period of Ark's selling), Palantir stock gained 89%.Data by YCharts.In the chart above, the date of Palantir's third-quarter earnings release is marked with a purple circle with the letter \"E\" in the center. As you can see, Palantir stock has risen considerably following that blowout Q3 report.While such gains have been great for Palantir shareholders, the magnitude of these upswings should come with a hard look at the fundamentals. As illustrated in the graph below, Palantir's price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 60 is the highest among leading software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses -- and it's not particularly close, either.Data by YCharts.I cannot stress this point enough: Palantir is trading at more 60 times sales, not earnings. While Palantir is indeed generating positive net income and free cash flow, both measures are still relatively small right now.Whenever a stock experiences a pronounced rally in a short time period, it's appropriate for fund managers to rebalance their portfolio. In this case, Wood's sales of Palantir coincide with the company being added to the S&P 500 as well as an impressive earnings report. Both of these events became positive near-term catalysts for Palantir stock.It's possible Palantir's weighting across the different Ark funds was becoming too high, so Wood and team decided to trim the position and take some profits off the table. While Palantir has demonstrated an ability to accelerate both revenue and profits, the valuation expansion seen in the chart above suggests the stock may be overbought right now.Remember to think long-termAs a Palantir shareholder, I very much believe in the company's future thanks to lucrative partnerships with big tech firms such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle. Moreover, Palantir is quietly becoming a major force in the U.S. military's defense tech effort -- an opportunity Mordor Intelligence estimates will be worth more than $60 billion by 2029.That said, Palantir stock is undoubtedly pricey right now. If you've been holding the stock for a long time, consider trimming your position at this point. Although there's still potential upside for Palantir, reducing your position at these valuation levels can also make sense.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363562869534840,"gmtCreate":1729787021029,"gmtModify":1729787654945,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy is not trustworthy. He shld shut up&nbsp;","listText":"This guy is not trustworthy. He shld shut up&nbsp;","text":"This guy is not trustworthy. He shld shut up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363562869534840","repostId":"2477893276","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477893276","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1729782900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477893276?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-24 23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Cuts Back iPhone Orders. Why Demand Fears Are Mounting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477893276","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The argument around demand for Apple’s latest iPhones continues to rage. The latest update is a bearish assessment from influential Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities.Chi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The argument around demand for Apple’s latest iPhones continues to rage. The latest update is a bearish assessment from influential Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/251ba2cda65bbf71df6c08bebee8bf45\" alt=\"China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.\" title=\"China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span>China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple has cut its cut orders to suppliers for the iPhone 16 by about 10 million units for the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2025,accordingto Kuo. </p><p>Apple didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment early on Thursday. </p><p>Demand for the new iPhone 16 has been a subject of hot debate among analysts, who are trying to gauge whether the integration of artificial intelligence is attracting customers. Just this week, analysts at UBS noted they expect iPhone unit sales in the September quarter to be flat from the same time a year ago, while J.P. Morgan analysts said they see demand in line with the iPhone 15 based on delivery times. </p><p>Kuo’s assessment—which is based on his analysis of the company’s supply chain rather than sales—looks more downbeat. He now forecasts Apple partners will produce 80 million iPhones during the fourth quarter, down from around 84 million last year. He estimates production of 45 million units during the first quarter of 2025 and 39 million units during the second quarter—down from 48 million and 41 million, respectively.</p><p>The effect on sales might not be so pronounced in the short term as Kuo said the cuts are largely due to production of the cheaper non-Pro models. However, he said he expects iPhone revenue to come under pressure in the first half of 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I believe that Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service,” Kuo said. “However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Chinese officials in Beijing on Wednesday. They discussed the company’s development in China, network data security and cloud services, according to a ministry statement. But it would be surprising if Cook didn’t take the chance to press for Beijing to allow Apple Intelligence—the company’s AI brand—to launch in China.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple shares were down 0.4% in early trading on Thursday after falling 2.2% the previous day.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday ordered Apple to pay a $25 million penalty over what it described as failures pertaining to its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs, which was ordered to pay nearly $65 million.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The CFPB said Apple failed to send tens of thousands of consumer disputes of Apple Card transactions to Goldman—and that when Apple did send disputes to Goldman the bank didn’t follow federal requirements for investigating them.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Cuts Back iPhone Orders. Why Demand Fears Are Mounting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Cuts Back iPhone Orders. Why Demand Fears Are Mounting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-24 23:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The argument around demand for Apple’s latest iPhones continues to rage. The latest update is a bearish assessment from influential Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/251ba2cda65bbf71df6c08bebee8bf45\" alt=\"China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.\" title=\"China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span>China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple has cut its cut orders to suppliers for the iPhone 16 by about 10 million units for the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2025,accordingto Kuo. </p><p>Apple didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment early on Thursday. </p><p>Demand for the new iPhone 16 has been a subject of hot debate among analysts, who are trying to gauge whether the integration of artificial intelligence is attracting customers. Just this week, analysts at UBS noted they expect iPhone unit sales in the September quarter to be flat from the same time a year ago, while J.P. Morgan analysts said they see demand in line with the iPhone 15 based on delivery times. </p><p>Kuo’s assessment—which is based on his analysis of the company’s supply chain rather than sales—looks more downbeat. He now forecasts Apple partners will produce 80 million iPhones during the fourth quarter, down from around 84 million last year. He estimates production of 45 million units during the first quarter of 2025 and 39 million units during the second quarter—down from 48 million and 41 million, respectively.</p><p>The effect on sales might not be so pronounced in the short term as Kuo said the cuts are largely due to production of the cheaper non-Pro models. However, he said he expects iPhone revenue to come under pressure in the first half of 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I believe that Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service,” Kuo said. “However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Chinese officials in Beijing on Wednesday. They discussed the company’s development in China, network data security and cloud services, according to a ministry statement. But it would be surprising if Cook didn’t take the chance to press for Beijing to allow Apple Intelligence—the company’s AI brand—to launch in China.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple shares were down 0.4% in early trading on Thursday after falling 2.2% the previous day.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday ordered Apple to pay a $25 million penalty over what it described as failures pertaining to its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs, which was ordered to pay nearly $65 million.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The CFPB said Apple failed to send tens of thousands of consumer disputes of Apple Card transactions to Goldman—and that when Apple did send disputes to Goldman the bank didn’t follow federal requirements for investigating them.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE0009G5SDU7.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AAPL":"苹果","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD)  INC AV","IE000YTNTUN2.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG)INC","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","IE0034235071.USD":"PINEBRIDGE EUROPE RESEARCH ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477893276","content_text":"The argument around demand for Apple’s latest iPhones continues to rage. The latest update is a bearish assessment from influential Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities. China is one of Apple’s biggest markets but it doesn’t currently plan to roll out its artificial-intelligence features in the country.Apple has cut its cut orders to suppliers for the iPhone 16 by about 10 million units for the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2025,accordingto Kuo. Apple didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment early on Thursday. Demand for the new iPhone 16 has been a subject of hot debate among analysts, who are trying to gauge whether the integration of artificial intelligence is attracting customers. Just this week, analysts at UBS noted they expect iPhone unit sales in the September quarter to be flat from the same time a year ago, while J.P. Morgan analysts said they see demand in line with the iPhone 15 based on delivery times. Kuo’s assessment—which is based on his analysis of the company’s supply chain rather than sales—looks more downbeat. He now forecasts Apple partners will produce 80 million iPhones during the fourth quarter, down from around 84 million last year. He estimates production of 45 million units during the first quarter of 2025 and 39 million units during the second quarter—down from 48 million and 41 million, respectively.The effect on sales might not be so pronounced in the short term as Kuo said the cuts are largely due to production of the cheaper non-Pro models. However, he said he expects iPhone revenue to come under pressure in the first half of 2025.“I believe that Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service,” Kuo said. “However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require further hardware innovation to accompany this AI development.”Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Chinese officials in Beijing on Wednesday. They discussed the company’s development in China, network data security and cloud services, according to a ministry statement. But it would be surprising if Cook didn’t take the chance to press for Beijing to allow Apple Intelligence—the company’s AI brand—to launch in China.Apple shares were down 0.4% in early trading on Thursday after falling 2.2% the previous day.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday ordered Apple to pay a $25 million penalty over what it described as failures pertaining to its credit-card partnership with Goldman Sachs, which was ordered to pay nearly $65 million.The CFPB said Apple failed to send tens of thousands of consumer disputes of Apple Card transactions to Goldman—and that when Apple did send disputes to Goldman the bank didn’t follow federal requirements for investigating them.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":244364819083280,"gmtCreate":1700683400830,"gmtModify":1700684097440,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sore loser&nbsp;","listText":"Sore loser&nbsp;","text":"Sore loser","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244364819083280","repostId":"2385857498","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2385857498","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1700661133,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2385857498?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-11-22 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Technologies: Investors Are Set For A Massive Reality Check","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2385857498","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir Technologies' stock price has risen from $8 to $20 since the CEO made comments about AI-driven growth.The company's positive investor sentiment is exaggerated and its stock multiple of 21x is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir Technologies&#39; stock price has risen from $8 to $20 since the CEO made comments about AI-driven growth.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s positive investor sentiment is exaggerated and its stock multiple of 21x is unsustainable.</p></li><li><p>Palantir&#39;s GAAP profits are minimal compared to its accumulated losses, indicating that the AI bubble will soon burst.</p></li></ul><p>Ever since CEO of <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (NYSE: PLTR)</strong> made comments about the prospects for artificial intelligence-driven growth for the core software offers, investors have showered the company with praise and Palantir’s stock price has since risen from about $8 in May to about $20 today.</p><p>Though I am willing to acknowledge that Palantir Technologies has made some progress in terms of posting GAAP profits, positive investor sentiment seems to be off the charts right now.</p><p>Exaggerated optimism about AI adoption and the potential for AI-related sales growth have led to Palantir Technologies’ stock multiple to expand to 21x, which looks neither sensible nor sustainable.</p><p>Since Palantir’s GAAP profits relative to its accumulated deficit show a gap of monumental proportions, I think the AI bubble will soon be pricked.</p><h2 id=\"id_343657280\">My Rating History</h2><p>Truth be told, I have been skeptical of Palantir Technologies ever since the stock made its public debut.</p><p>Palantir Technologies has racked up an obscene amount of losses since it was started more than two decades ago, a fact that too many investors are willing to overlook now that the company is reporting GAAP profits.</p><p>Slowing sales growth has been a concern for many investors and the valuation multiple is now so detached from fundamentals again, that a Sell rating is the only rating that makes sense, in my view.</p><p>My prior Sell call from February was, with the benefit of hindsight, wrong as the stock has soared from $8 to $21. With that being said, I think that the market continues to overvalue Palantir Technologies’ sales potential.</p><p>I cited a deteriorating sales position for Palantir Technologies (lower expected sales growth) specifically as a headwind for the stock. Investors should remember that not long ago, Palantir guided for 30% annual sales growth.</p><p>Despite the company posting GAAP profits, these profits are a nothing more than a drop in the bucket relative to Palantir Technologies’ accumulated losses. My key argument here is that investors overreact to PLTR’s reported GAAP profits.</p><h2 id=\"id_3974044529\">Put GAAP Profits In Relation To Accumulated Losses</h2><p>Palantir Technologies celebrated itself for producing a &#39;fourth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability&#39; in the third quarter which yielded a GAAP profit of $72 million. The first GAAP profit showed up on Palantir Technologies’ profit statement in the fourth quarter of 2022 when the company revealed positive $31 million net income.</p><p>Since Palantir Technologies has been celebrated for its third quarter earnings performance, it is important, in my view, to connect the 3Q-23 GAAP profit to the amount of accumulated losses PLTR also reported.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b841b1194b336a0e1a9786203525e5\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"536\"/></p><p>Net Income Losses (Palantir Technologies)</p><p>While the $72 million in 3Q GAAP profits looks like a big win (on first glance), it is rather a drop in the bucket considering that the company, at the beginning of 3Q-23, had an accumulated deficit of $5.81 billion.</p><p>Counting the $72 million in profits against the accumulated deficit leaves us with a 3Q ending accumulated deficit balance of $5.74 billion.</p><p>In a nutshell, Palantir Technologies had a total net profit in 3Q equal to just 1.2% of its total historical losses which, in my view, is not something that investors should bring the champagne bottles out for.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0f61a41f68ad8fc47a2744d96de484\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"281\"/></p><p>Accumulated Deficit (Palantir Technologies)</p><p>Palantir Technologies would have to see much higher GAAP profits in order to justify its valuation, in my view, and the valuation multiple presently seems to be detached from the underlying fundamentals. It would take years of improving GAAP profitability for Palantir Technologies to grow into its present valuation, but if the commercial business, for instance, keeps performing well, a case could be made for a richer sales multiple.</p><p>Moving forward, Palantir Technologies clearly has an opportunity to grow its AI-related services which could be instrumental in boosting the company’s operating income margins as well as GAAP profits.</p><p>The scaling of Palantir AI could be a source of incremental growth, in both the commercial and government realm, but it is difficult to quantify. With that being said, though, Palantir Technologies won’t be the only company that offers AI-related services, so I am still skeptical about the &#39;uniqueness&#39; aspect for Palantir Technologies’ AI offer.</p><p>Palantir Technologies also will still have to show that it can successfully translate demand for AI into stronger sales growth since Palantir’s total sales growth is slowing down. So far, this is not yet the case, really.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4342459e85ac64c52dcca6fb75673eeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p>Adjusted Operating Income (Palantir Technologies)</p><p>Palantir Technologies’ sales rose 17% YoY in the third quarter to $558 million, but U.S. commercial sales were up 33%. Government sales were up 12% YoY, so the non-government business is growing much faster right now. Total commercial sales were up 23% YoY in 3Q-23 compared to 16% YoY in the first three quarters of 2023, so Palantir Technologies is seeing some momentum here. While the 17% may sound good, it doesn’t justify the high sales multiple and it is way below the initially stated 30% annual sales growth prediction.</p><p>The commercial segment continues to outperform government which is good for Palantir Technologies as it reduces the company’s reliance on government clients which in the past have been crucial in driving Palantir Technologies’ sales growth.</p><p>With that being said, though, I don’t think this invalidates my core criticism about Palantir Technologies which is that the rate of sales growth doesn’t justify the company’s excessively high sales multiple.</p><p>Moving forward, Palantir Technologies clearly has an opportunity to add to its commercial client roster. The company’s customers grew 34% YoY in 3Q-23 and more companies are signing on for partnerships for Palantir Technologies’ Artificial Intelligence Platform. The combination of AI and commercial customers could potentially be beneficial for Palantir Technologies, but the potential nonetheless appears to be presently over-hyped.</p><p>I do expect this momentum in the commercial segment to continue. The commercial segment appears set to not only drive Palantir Technologies’ sales growth, but to also account for a higher sales share in the future.</p><p>Commercial sales accounted for 44% of all sales in the first nine months of the year and this percentage may very well rise above 50% moving forward.</p><p>I don’t see Palantir Technologies, however, to return to its earlier stated goal of achieving 30% annual sales growth as competition for AI services is only going to increase and the company’s sales growth overall has slowed quite drastically. Thus, I expect Palantir Technologies to keep growing its sales well below 30% in the near future.</p><h2 id=\"id_2695042223\">AI Adoption, Sales Outlook And Palantir’s Unsustainable Valuation Multiple</h2><p>Alexander Karp said a few months back that the company was going in big on AI. He said in Palantir Technologies’ latest shareholder letter that demand for its AI products was growing.</p><p>With that being said, this demand is not really translating into tangible sales growth (at least not so far), suggesting that investors that are bidding up Palantir’s stock price primarily on hopes. And this is where I think investors are going to get a brutal reality check moving forward.</p><p>Let’s just look at the company’s sales guidance for 2023 to see what I mean.</p><p>Investors have clearly bought into the hype about AI products as can be seen in the huge inflation in PLTR’s stock multiple, but Palantir Technologies’ outlook for 2023 only calls for $2.216 - $2.220 billion in sales this year.</p><p>The guidance was raised QoQ from $2.212 billion in 2Q-23, but the revised guidance implies a rather paltry YoY growth rate of only 16%. Not exactly what I would expect from a company that is active in the booming market for alternative intelligence.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)</strong>, for instance, is expected to see 104% sales growth this year and 51% next year, and those are growth rates that would be deserving of a high sales multiple.</p><p>Now, 16% is not nothing and the market presently models 19% sales growth next year, but it is hardly a rate that I would want to describe as impressive, and most certainly Palantir’s sales growth isn’t skyrocketing to the extent that one would expect when reading about growing AI adoption.</p><p>Palantir Technologies’ stock valuation, I would submit, is fully and utterly unsustainable again and investors are way, way too celebratory about the company’s 3Q GAAP profit. This year, the market models $2.21 billion in sales which translates into a 19.4x sales multiple (based on this year’s sales) which is not only excessive, but not sustainable, in my view.</p><p>If I was really generous, I could agree on paying 5x 2023E sales (4x 2024E sales) for Palantir Technologies’ growth potential, particularly as it relates to the AI realm, but this would be conditional upon the company scaling aggressively, improving profitability and, preferably, cutting back on its share-based compensation scheme (which is another issue in and of itself).</p><p>With a 4x 2024E sales multiple, Palantir would have a market value of $11 billion which would be equal to a stock value of $5. I previously considered a 2-3x 2024E sales reasonable, but in acknowledgement of commercial growth and potential with AIP, I think a higher sales multiple might be justified than the one I laid out the last time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bed29b35f2c164c4aa69408d20013f67\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"259\"/></p><p>Revenue Estimate (Yahoo Finance)</p><h2 id=\"id_2629790112\">Why Palantir Technologies Might See A Higher Valuation Multiple</h2><p>If Palantir Technologies were, against my expectations and judgment, to see a translation of its AI adoption into actual sales growth, there is a not insignificant chance that investors will continue to inflate the company’s stock multiple. Irrationality can clearly persist for very long periods of time, and so can exuberance.</p><p>Should Palantir Technologies manage to grow and scale its AI products to such an extent that its sales growth rate accelerates, then PLTR might deserve a rich valuation.</p><p>Since the stock multiple is already more than rich right now, I tend to think Palantir Technologies’ valuation is in bubble territory and the stock has a deeply, deeply unattractive risk/reward.</p><h2 id=\"id_1744648375\">My Conclusion</h2><p>Investors often fall into the same trap: They wholeheartedly jump on press releases, containing acronyms like &#39;AI&#39;, &#39;AI demand&#39; or &#39;AI adoption&#39; which causes them to fail to evaluate the underlying performance of the business that purports to deliver such benefits to its customers.</p><p>Palantir Technologies may be GAAP profitable now, but Palantir’s business has put investors back a cumulative $5.74 billion since its inception which in and of itself is a cause for concern.</p><p>Furthermore, Palantir Technologies’ sales growth and extraordinary AI potential that so many analysts seem to see, is not really reflected in the company’s sales outlook for 2023 nor in the market estimates for next year (19% growth).</p><p>Paying 19.4x sales for a software business with a TTM GAAP profit of $147 million and a $5.74 billion accumulated deficit seems more than just excessive and I think investors are set for a painful reality check in the near future.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies: Investors Are Set For A Massive Reality Check\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-22 21:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653464-palantir-technologies-investors-are-set-for-a-massive-reality-check><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies' stock price has risen from $8 to $20 since the CEO made comments about AI-driven growth.The company's positive investor sentiment is exaggerated and its stock multiple of 21x is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653464-palantir-technologies-investors-are-set-for-a-massive-reality-check\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653464-palantir-technologies-investors-are-set-for-a-massive-reality-check","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2385857498","content_text":"Palantir Technologies' stock price has risen from $8 to $20 since the CEO made comments about AI-driven growth.The company's positive investor sentiment is exaggerated and its stock multiple of 21x is unsustainable.Palantir's GAAP profits are minimal compared to its accumulated losses, indicating that the AI bubble will soon burst.Ever since CEO of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) made comments about the prospects for artificial intelligence-driven growth for the core software offers, investors have showered the company with praise and Palantir’s stock price has since risen from about $8 in May to about $20 today.Though I am willing to acknowledge that Palantir Technologies has made some progress in terms of posting GAAP profits, positive investor sentiment seems to be off the charts right now.Exaggerated optimism about AI adoption and the potential for AI-related sales growth have led to Palantir Technologies’ stock multiple to expand to 21x, which looks neither sensible nor sustainable.Since Palantir’s GAAP profits relative to its accumulated deficit show a gap of monumental proportions, I think the AI bubble will soon be pricked.My Rating HistoryTruth be told, I have been skeptical of Palantir Technologies ever since the stock made its public debut.Palantir Technologies has racked up an obscene amount of losses since it was started more than two decades ago, a fact that too many investors are willing to overlook now that the company is reporting GAAP profits.Slowing sales growth has been a concern for many investors and the valuation multiple is now so detached from fundamentals again, that a Sell rating is the only rating that makes sense, in my view.My prior Sell call from February was, with the benefit of hindsight, wrong as the stock has soared from $8 to $21. With that being said, I think that the market continues to overvalue Palantir Technologies’ sales potential.I cited a deteriorating sales position for Palantir Technologies (lower expected sales growth) specifically as a headwind for the stock. Investors should remember that not long ago, Palantir guided for 30% annual sales growth.Despite the company posting GAAP profits, these profits are a nothing more than a drop in the bucket relative to Palantir Technologies’ accumulated losses. My key argument here is that investors overreact to PLTR’s reported GAAP profits.Put GAAP Profits In Relation To Accumulated LossesPalantir Technologies celebrated itself for producing a 'fourth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability' in the third quarter which yielded a GAAP profit of $72 million. The first GAAP profit showed up on Palantir Technologies’ profit statement in the fourth quarter of 2022 when the company revealed positive $31 million net income.Since Palantir Technologies has been celebrated for its third quarter earnings performance, it is important, in my view, to connect the 3Q-23 GAAP profit to the amount of accumulated losses PLTR also reported.Net Income Losses (Palantir Technologies)While the $72 million in 3Q GAAP profits looks like a big win (on first glance), it is rather a drop in the bucket considering that the company, at the beginning of 3Q-23, had an accumulated deficit of $5.81 billion.Counting the $72 million in profits against the accumulated deficit leaves us with a 3Q ending accumulated deficit balance of $5.74 billion.In a nutshell, Palantir Technologies had a total net profit in 3Q equal to just 1.2% of its total historical losses which, in my view, is not something that investors should bring the champagne bottles out for.Accumulated Deficit (Palantir Technologies)Palantir Technologies would have to see much higher GAAP profits in order to justify its valuation, in my view, and the valuation multiple presently seems to be detached from the underlying fundamentals. It would take years of improving GAAP profitability for Palantir Technologies to grow into its present valuation, but if the commercial business, for instance, keeps performing well, a case could be made for a richer sales multiple.Moving forward, Palantir Technologies clearly has an opportunity to grow its AI-related services which could be instrumental in boosting the company’s operating income margins as well as GAAP profits.The scaling of Palantir AI could be a source of incremental growth, in both the commercial and government realm, but it is difficult to quantify. With that being said, though, Palantir Technologies won’t be the only company that offers AI-related services, so I am still skeptical about the 'uniqueness' aspect for Palantir Technologies’ AI offer.Palantir Technologies also will still have to show that it can successfully translate demand for AI into stronger sales growth since Palantir’s total sales growth is slowing down. So far, this is not yet the case, really.Adjusted Operating Income (Palantir Technologies)Palantir Technologies’ sales rose 17% YoY in the third quarter to $558 million, but U.S. commercial sales were up 33%. Government sales were up 12% YoY, so the non-government business is growing much faster right now. Total commercial sales were up 23% YoY in 3Q-23 compared to 16% YoY in the first three quarters of 2023, so Palantir Technologies is seeing some momentum here. While the 17% may sound good, it doesn’t justify the high sales multiple and it is way below the initially stated 30% annual sales growth prediction.The commercial segment continues to outperform government which is good for Palantir Technologies as it reduces the company’s reliance on government clients which in the past have been crucial in driving Palantir Technologies’ sales growth.With that being said, though, I don’t think this invalidates my core criticism about Palantir Technologies which is that the rate of sales growth doesn’t justify the company’s excessively high sales multiple.Moving forward, Palantir Technologies clearly has an opportunity to add to its commercial client roster. The company’s customers grew 34% YoY in 3Q-23 and more companies are signing on for partnerships for Palantir Technologies’ Artificial Intelligence Platform. The combination of AI and commercial customers could potentially be beneficial for Palantir Technologies, but the potential nonetheless appears to be presently over-hyped.I do expect this momentum in the commercial segment to continue. The commercial segment appears set to not only drive Palantir Technologies’ sales growth, but to also account for a higher sales share in the future.Commercial sales accounted for 44% of all sales in the first nine months of the year and this percentage may very well rise above 50% moving forward.I don’t see Palantir Technologies, however, to return to its earlier stated goal of achieving 30% annual sales growth as competition for AI services is only going to increase and the company’s sales growth overall has slowed quite drastically. Thus, I expect Palantir Technologies to keep growing its sales well below 30% in the near future.AI Adoption, Sales Outlook And Palantir’s Unsustainable Valuation MultipleAlexander Karp said a few months back that the company was going in big on AI. He said in Palantir Technologies’ latest shareholder letter that demand for its AI products was growing.With that being said, this demand is not really translating into tangible sales growth (at least not so far), suggesting that investors that are bidding up Palantir’s stock price primarily on hopes. And this is where I think investors are going to get a brutal reality check moving forward.Let’s just look at the company’s sales guidance for 2023 to see what I mean.Investors have clearly bought into the hype about AI products as can be seen in the huge inflation in PLTR’s stock multiple, but Palantir Technologies’ outlook for 2023 only calls for $2.216 - $2.220 billion in sales this year.The guidance was raised QoQ from $2.212 billion in 2Q-23, but the revised guidance implies a rather paltry YoY growth rate of only 16%. Not exactly what I would expect from a company that is active in the booming market for alternative intelligence.Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), for instance, is expected to see 104% sales growth this year and 51% next year, and those are growth rates that would be deserving of a high sales multiple.Now, 16% is not nothing and the market presently models 19% sales growth next year, but it is hardly a rate that I would want to describe as impressive, and most certainly Palantir’s sales growth isn’t skyrocketing to the extent that one would expect when reading about growing AI adoption.Palantir Technologies’ stock valuation, I would submit, is fully and utterly unsustainable again and investors are way, way too celebratory about the company’s 3Q GAAP profit. This year, the market models $2.21 billion in sales which translates into a 19.4x sales multiple (based on this year’s sales) which is not only excessive, but not sustainable, in my view.If I was really generous, I could agree on paying 5x 2023E sales (4x 2024E sales) for Palantir Technologies’ growth potential, particularly as it relates to the AI realm, but this would be conditional upon the company scaling aggressively, improving profitability and, preferably, cutting back on its share-based compensation scheme (which is another issue in and of itself).With a 4x 2024E sales multiple, Palantir would have a market value of $11 billion which would be equal to a stock value of $5. I previously considered a 2-3x 2024E sales reasonable, but in acknowledgement of commercial growth and potential with AIP, I think a higher sales multiple might be justified than the one I laid out the last time.Revenue Estimate (Yahoo Finance)Why Palantir Technologies Might See A Higher Valuation MultipleIf Palantir Technologies were, against my expectations and judgment, to see a translation of its AI adoption into actual sales growth, there is a not insignificant chance that investors will continue to inflate the company’s stock multiple. Irrationality can clearly persist for very long periods of time, and so can exuberance.Should Palantir Technologies manage to grow and scale its AI products to such an extent that its sales growth rate accelerates, then PLTR might deserve a rich valuation.Since the stock multiple is already more than rich right now, I tend to think Palantir Technologies’ valuation is in bubble territory and the stock has a deeply, deeply unattractive risk/reward.My ConclusionInvestors often fall into the same trap: They wholeheartedly jump on press releases, containing acronyms like 'AI', 'AI demand' or 'AI adoption' which causes them to fail to evaluate the underlying performance of the business that purports to deliver such benefits to its customers.Palantir Technologies may be GAAP profitable now, but Palantir’s business has put investors back a cumulative $5.74 billion since its inception which in and of itself is a cause for concern.Furthermore, Palantir Technologies’ sales growth and extraordinary AI potential that so many analysts seem to see, is not really reflected in the company’s sales outlook for 2023 nor in the market estimates for next year (19% growth).Paying 19.4x sales for a software business with a TTM GAAP profit of $147 million and a $5.74 billion accumulated deficit seems more than just excessive and I think investors are set for a painful reality check in the near future.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340435706003608,"gmtCreate":1724145216299,"gmtModify":1724147372940,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy talk nonsense. Sore loser&nbsp;","listText":"This guy talk nonsense. Sore loser&nbsp;","text":"This guy talk nonsense. Sore loser","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340435706003608","repostId":"2460103938","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2460103938","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724142540,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2460103938?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-20 16:29","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Don't Follow It Off The Cliff, Overpriced Generative AI Story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460103938","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"PLTR has demonstrated the promising monetization of generative AI SaaS layer across the government and commercial segments, thanks to the highly opportunistic AIP boot camp.These have led to its highe","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>PLTR has demonstrated the promising monetization of generative AI SaaS layer across the government and commercial segments, thanks to the highly opportunistic AIP boot camp.</p></li><li><p>These have led to its higher Net Retention Rates and the growing multi-year Remaining Performance Obligations, sustaining its high-growth investment thesis.</p></li><li><p>Even so, with these developments triggering PLTR&#39;s lofty valuations compared to its peers, we believe that there is a minimal margin of safety at current levels.</p></li><li><p>Based on its historical trading pattern, the stock is likely to pull back to its uptrend support levels of $24s in the near-term.</p></li><li><p>Traders may consider following the massive insider selling and taking part of their gains off the table, before coming back in later.</p></li></ul><p>We previously covered <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> in May 2024, discussing the normalization in market sentiments surrounding generative AI stocks, despite the SaaS company&#39;s robust performance metrics thanks to the successful AIP boot camps.</p><p>We had upgraded our rating to a Buy then, preferably after a moderate retracement to its previous support levels of $18s for an improved margin of safety.</p><p>Since then, PLTR has maintained a floor at $20 while rallying by +55.7% to retest its all-time highs of $30s, naturally outperforming the wider market at +6.1%.</p><p>This is despite the drastic July 2024 market wide pullback, with the bullish support attributed to the double beat FQ2&#39;24 performance and raised FY2024 guidance, with it underscoring the successful penetration of generative AI monetization through the infrastructure layer to the SaaS layer.</p><p>Even so, we are downgrading the stock to a Hold instead, since it is now overly expensive with the baked in growth premium offering interested investors with a minimal upside potential.</p><h3 id=\"id_3847959463\">PLTR Continues To Outperform Expectations, With Robust Growth Prospects &amp; Performance Metrics</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/750e4c736f8a7df65439c55a29a2630e\" alt=\"PLTR YTD Stock Price\" title=\"PLTR YTD Stock Price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\"/><span>PLTR YTD Stock Price</span></p><p>Since its first GAAP profitability and the seven consecutive positive bottom-line results since Q4&#39;22, it is unsurprising that the PLTR stock has already generated robust gains, significantly aided by the growing demand for its generative AI SaaS offerings.</p><p>The latter is already observed in the double beat performance, with its commercial growth accelerating at +32.4% YoY in FQ2&#39;24, compared to +10.4% YoY reported in FQ2&#39;23. Government demand is robust at +23% YoY as well, compared to +14.6% YoY a year ago.</p><p>It is apparent from these developments that PLTR&#39;s AI Bootcamp strategy has been highly successful in winning new customers, as observed in the higher overall customer count at 593 (+39 QoQ/ +172 YoY).</p><p>This in top of the improved cross-selling to existing customers, given the higher Net Retention Dollar of 114% in FQ2&#39;24 (+3 points QoQ/ +6 from FQ4&#39;23 levels of 108%).</p><p>Most importantly, PLTR&#39;s boot camp strategy during the generative AI boom has directly contributed to the SaaS company&#39;s excellent Rule of 40 results at 64% by the latest quarter (+7 points QoQ/ +26 YoY), thanks to the accelerated sales growth at 27% (+6 points QoQ/ +14 YoY) and richer adj operating margin at 37% (+1 points QoQ/ +12 YoY).</p><p>Moving forward, we believe that the SaaS company may be able to continue generating robust performance metrics ahead, significantly aided by its highly strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT).</p><p>It is important for us to highlight that both PLTR and MSFT&#39;s Azure boast &#34;the highest possible DoD Impact Level 6 (IL6) provisional authorization (PA) at the high confidentiality and high integrity (H-H-x) information categorization.&#34;</p><p>These developments imply that PLTR will be able to leverage on Azure&#39;s existing Large Language Models and OpenAI&#39;s GPT-4 capabilities, while being integrated into the Federal government&#39;s highly classified cloud data, naturally driving further growth opportunities for the former&#39;s government segment.</p><p>With the US government comprising $278M (+8% QoQ/ +24% YoY) or the equivalent 41% (+0.5 points QoQ/ -1.1 YoY) of the SaaS company&#39;s overall FQ2&#39;24 revenues, it is undeniable that the US Federal contracts remain the backbone of its overall prospects.</p><p>The next few years are likely to bring forth significant growth opportunities as well, attributed to the higher defense spending as geopolitical hostilities intensify in Gaza and Ukraine.</p><p>PLTR&#39;s inflection is further observed in the raised FY2024 guidance, with revenues of $2.746B (+23.6% YoY) and adj income from operations of $970M (+53.2% YoY) at the midpoint.</p><p>This is up from the original guidance of $2.66B (+19.8% YoY) and $842M (+33% YoY) offered in the FQ4&#39;23 earnings call, respectively.</p><p>The raised guidance is not overly aggressive indeed, based on PLTR&#39;s H1&#39;24 numbers of $1.31B (+24.7% YoY) and $480.02M (+84.6% YoY), with it demonstrating the management&#39;s confidence about generating robust and profitable growth ahead, with another raise and beat performance likely in FQ3&#39;24.</p><p>With these numbers well-supported by the growing multi-year Remaining Performance Obligation of $1.37B (+5.3% QoQ/ +41.2% YoY), we believe the stock continues to offer a compelling high-growth investment thesis.</p><p><strong>The Consensus Forward Estimates</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a35d43ec8b2405d6fda6813ce09fdb2\" alt=\"TIKR Terminal\" title=\"TIKR Terminal\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\"/><span>TIKR Terminal</span></p><p>As a result of the raised FY2024 guidance, it is unsurprising that the consensus have already raised their forward estimates, with PLTR expected to generate an accelerated top/ bottom-line growth at a CAGR of +21.3%/ +28.4% through FY2026.</p><p>This is compared to the original estimates of +20.3%/ +23.2% and historical top-line growth of +30.1% between FY2018 and FY2023, respectively.</p><p><strong>PLTR Valuations</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/93b2208a8b0501fe0ad889cf9a0c3ccb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"123\"/></p><p>On the other hand, it is undeniable that PLTR may be expensive at FWD P/E valuations of 90.29x, compared to its 1Y mean of 66.90x and 3Y mean of 69.54x.</p><p>Even when compared to its AI SaaS peers, it is apparent that PLTR is trading at a premium, including Google (GOOG) at FWD P/E of 21.63x with the projected adj EPS growth of +19.6% through FY2026, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> (ADBE) at 30.47x/ +14%, Microsoft at 31.75x/ +15.1%, Nvidia (NVDA) at 45.70x/ +49.3%, and with the rare exception being CrowdStrike (CRWD) at 66.94x/ +24.1%, respectively.</p><p>If we are to do the same exercise with its direct competitors, including BigBear.ai (BBAI) at FWD Price/ Sales of 1.83x with the projected revenue growth of +18% through FY2026, C3.ai (AI) at 8.30x/ +20.8%, and SoundHound AI (SOUN) at 21.59x/ +82.1%, we believe that PLTR at 26.04x/ +21.3% appears to be on the expensive side.</p><p>Given PLTR&#39;s relatively premium valuation, we believe that there is a minimal margin of safety at current levels indeed.</p><h2 id=\"id_2096264043\">So, Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</h2><p><strong>PLTR 4Y Stock Price</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9989f8853a376f38a76fb635552965d\" alt=\"TradingView\" title=\"TradingView\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><p>For now, PLTR&#39;s uptrend has been impressive since the December 2022 bottom, with it consistently charting higher highs and higher lows despite the recent market rotation from high-growth stocks.</p><p>For context, we had offered a long-term price target of $26.70 in our previous article, based on the consensus FY2026 adj EPS estimates of $0.47 and the 2022/ 2023 P/E mean of 57x.</p><p>Based on the consensus raised FY2026 adj EPS estimates of $0.53 and the same P/E, we are looking at an updated long-term price target of $30.20, with it implying a minimal margin of safety at current levels.</p><p>On the one hand, PLTR&#39;s short interest continues to moderate to 2.85% by the time of writing, down from the previous article levels of 3.52%, with it implying lower volatility from short sellers.</p><p>On the other hand, as the stock prices reached new peaks of over $30s, nearing those observed during the February 2021 peaks, it is unsurprising that insiders have been unlocking great gains at current levels with $240M sold in Q2&#39;24 (+30.4% QoQ/ +788% YoY).</p><p>While market sentiments surrounding high-growth stocks appear to have normalized after the great correction in July 2024 with the CBOE Volatility Index also moderating, we maintain our belief that there remains a minimal upside potential at current levels.</p><p>Based on PLTR&#39;s historical trading pattern, the stock is likely to pull back to its uptrend support levels of $24s in the near-term.</p><p>As a result of the potential capital losses, we are downgrading our Buy rating to Hold (Neutral) rating instead. Interested long-term investors may consider waiting for the pullback before adding for an improved dollar cost average.</p><p>Likewise, traders may consider following insiders and taking part of their gains off the table, before coming back in later.</p><p>For now, do not chase PLTR over the cliff.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Don't Follow It Off The Cliff, Overpriced Generative AI Story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Don't Follow It Off The Cliff, Overpriced Generative AI Story\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-20 16:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715533-palantir-stock-dont-follow-it-off-the-cliff-overpriced-generative-ai-story><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>PLTR has demonstrated the promising monetization of generative AI SaaS layer across the government and commercial segments, thanks to the highly opportunistic AIP boot camp.These have led to its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715533-palantir-stock-dont-follow-it-off-the-cliff-overpriced-generative-ai-story\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715533-palantir-stock-dont-follow-it-off-the-cliff-overpriced-generative-ai-story","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2460103938","content_text":"PLTR has demonstrated the promising monetization of generative AI SaaS layer across the government and commercial segments, thanks to the highly opportunistic AIP boot camp.These have led to its higher Net Retention Rates and the growing multi-year Remaining Performance Obligations, sustaining its high-growth investment thesis.Even so, with these developments triggering PLTR's lofty valuations compared to its peers, we believe that there is a minimal margin of safety at current levels.Based on its historical trading pattern, the stock is likely to pull back to its uptrend support levels of $24s in the near-term.Traders may consider following the massive insider selling and taking part of their gains off the table, before coming back in later.We previously covered Palantir Technologies Inc. in May 2024, discussing the normalization in market sentiments surrounding generative AI stocks, despite the SaaS company's robust performance metrics thanks to the successful AIP boot camps.We had upgraded our rating to a Buy then, preferably after a moderate retracement to its previous support levels of $18s for an improved margin of safety.Since then, PLTR has maintained a floor at $20 while rallying by +55.7% to retest its all-time highs of $30s, naturally outperforming the wider market at +6.1%.This is despite the drastic July 2024 market wide pullback, with the bullish support attributed to the double beat FQ2'24 performance and raised FY2024 guidance, with it underscoring the successful penetration of generative AI monetization through the infrastructure layer to the SaaS layer.Even so, we are downgrading the stock to a Hold instead, since it is now overly expensive with the baked in growth premium offering interested investors with a minimal upside potential.PLTR Continues To Outperform Expectations, With Robust Growth Prospects & Performance MetricsPLTR YTD Stock PriceSince its first GAAP profitability and the seven consecutive positive bottom-line results since Q4'22, it is unsurprising that the PLTR stock has already generated robust gains, significantly aided by the growing demand for its generative AI SaaS offerings.The latter is already observed in the double beat performance, with its commercial growth accelerating at +32.4% YoY in FQ2'24, compared to +10.4% YoY reported in FQ2'23. Government demand is robust at +23% YoY as well, compared to +14.6% YoY a year ago.It is apparent from these developments that PLTR's AI Bootcamp strategy has been highly successful in winning new customers, as observed in the higher overall customer count at 593 (+39 QoQ/ +172 YoY).This in top of the improved cross-selling to existing customers, given the higher Net Retention Dollar of 114% in FQ2'24 (+3 points QoQ/ +6 from FQ4'23 levels of 108%).Most importantly, PLTR's boot camp strategy during the generative AI boom has directly contributed to the SaaS company's excellent Rule of 40 results at 64% by the latest quarter (+7 points QoQ/ +26 YoY), thanks to the accelerated sales growth at 27% (+6 points QoQ/ +14 YoY) and richer adj operating margin at 37% (+1 points QoQ/ +12 YoY).Moving forward, we believe that the SaaS company may be able to continue generating robust performance metrics ahead, significantly aided by its highly strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT).It is important for us to highlight that both PLTR and MSFT's Azure boast \"the highest possible DoD Impact Level 6 (IL6) provisional authorization (PA) at the high confidentiality and high integrity (H-H-x) information categorization.\"These developments imply that PLTR will be able to leverage on Azure's existing Large Language Models and OpenAI's GPT-4 capabilities, while being integrated into the Federal government's highly classified cloud data, naturally driving further growth opportunities for the former's government segment.With the US government comprising $278M (+8% QoQ/ +24% YoY) or the equivalent 41% (+0.5 points QoQ/ -1.1 YoY) of the SaaS company's overall FQ2'24 revenues, it is undeniable that the US Federal contracts remain the backbone of its overall prospects.The next few years are likely to bring forth significant growth opportunities as well, attributed to the higher defense spending as geopolitical hostilities intensify in Gaza and Ukraine.PLTR's inflection is further observed in the raised FY2024 guidance, with revenues of $2.746B (+23.6% YoY) and adj income from operations of $970M (+53.2% YoY) at the midpoint.This is up from the original guidance of $2.66B (+19.8% YoY) and $842M (+33% YoY) offered in the FQ4'23 earnings call, respectively.The raised guidance is not overly aggressive indeed, based on PLTR's H1'24 numbers of $1.31B (+24.7% YoY) and $480.02M (+84.6% YoY), with it demonstrating the management's confidence about generating robust and profitable growth ahead, with another raise and beat performance likely in FQ3'24.With these numbers well-supported by the growing multi-year Remaining Performance Obligation of $1.37B (+5.3% QoQ/ +41.2% YoY), we believe the stock continues to offer a compelling high-growth investment thesis.The Consensus Forward EstimatesTIKR TerminalAs a result of the raised FY2024 guidance, it is unsurprising that the consensus have already raised their forward estimates, with PLTR expected to generate an accelerated top/ bottom-line growth at a CAGR of +21.3%/ +28.4% through FY2026.This is compared to the original estimates of +20.3%/ +23.2% and historical top-line growth of +30.1% between FY2018 and FY2023, respectively.PLTR ValuationsOn the other hand, it is undeniable that PLTR may be expensive at FWD P/E valuations of 90.29x, compared to its 1Y mean of 66.90x and 3Y mean of 69.54x.Even when compared to its AI SaaS peers, it is apparent that PLTR is trading at a premium, including Google (GOOG) at FWD P/E of 21.63x with the projected adj EPS growth of +19.6% through FY2026, Adobe (ADBE) at 30.47x/ +14%, Microsoft at 31.75x/ +15.1%, Nvidia (NVDA) at 45.70x/ +49.3%, and with the rare exception being CrowdStrike (CRWD) at 66.94x/ +24.1%, respectively.If we are to do the same exercise with its direct competitors, including BigBear.ai (BBAI) at FWD Price/ Sales of 1.83x with the projected revenue growth of +18% through FY2026, C3.ai (AI) at 8.30x/ +20.8%, and SoundHound AI (SOUN) at 21.59x/ +82.1%, we believe that PLTR at 26.04x/ +21.3% appears to be on the expensive side.Given PLTR's relatively premium valuation, we believe that there is a minimal margin of safety at current levels indeed.So, Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?PLTR 4Y Stock PriceTradingViewFor now, PLTR's uptrend has been impressive since the December 2022 bottom, with it consistently charting higher highs and higher lows despite the recent market rotation from high-growth stocks.For context, we had offered a long-term price target of $26.70 in our previous article, based on the consensus FY2026 adj EPS estimates of $0.47 and the 2022/ 2023 P/E mean of 57x.Based on the consensus raised FY2026 adj EPS estimates of $0.53 and the same P/E, we are looking at an updated long-term price target of $30.20, with it implying a minimal margin of safety at current levels.On the one hand, PLTR's short interest continues to moderate to 2.85% by the time of writing, down from the previous article levels of 3.52%, with it implying lower volatility from short sellers.On the other hand, as the stock prices reached new peaks of over $30s, nearing those observed during the February 2021 peaks, it is unsurprising that insiders have been unlocking great gains at current levels with $240M sold in Q2'24 (+30.4% QoQ/ +788% YoY).While market sentiments surrounding high-growth stocks appear to have normalized after the great correction in July 2024 with the CBOE Volatility Index also moderating, we maintain our belief that there remains a minimal upside potential at current levels.Based on PLTR's historical trading pattern, the stock is likely to pull back to its uptrend support levels of $24s in the near-term.As a result of the potential capital losses, we are downgrading our Buy rating to Hold (Neutral) rating instead. Interested long-term investors may consider waiting for the pullback before adding for an improved dollar cost average.Likewise, traders may consider following insiders and taking part of their gains off the table, before coming back in later.For now, do not chase PLTR over the cliff.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199829394473000,"gmtCreate":1689828056518,"gmtModify":1689829620561,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The author does not have any credibility","listText":"The author does not have any credibility","text":"The author does not have any credibility","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199829394473000","repostId":"2352050694","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2352050694","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1689824031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2352050694?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-20 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Consider Selling The News?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2352050694","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Tesla: Consider Selling The News (NASDAQ:TSLA)","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3062389901\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Tesla, Inc. Q2 earnings beat estimates, but margins continued to compress and free cash flows were weak, leading to suggestions that selling shares to lock in gains could be a good move.</p></li><li><p>Despite record deliveries and revenue growth, the company&#39;s gross margins dropped from 25% to 18% during Q2.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s energy business performed well, with storage deployment up 200% YoY, but this was not enough to offset falling gross margins in the automotive business.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95882ca5c26944bd571917c1cf125e3\" alt=\"Justin Sullivan\" title=\"Justin Sullivan\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"515\"/><span>Justin Sullivan</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3430076673\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Article Thesis</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported its second quarter earnings results on Wednesday afternoon. While the company beat estimates on both lines, margin compression continued and free cash flows were pretty weak. Due to a very high valuation, I believe that selling shares in order to lock in gains makes sense.</p><h2 id=\"id_2832312125\" style=\"text-align: left;\">What Happened?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On Wednesday afternoon, Tesla, Inc. reported its second-quarter earnings results, which can be seen here. The headline numbers looked like this:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda02d5a34ba894a1df155753aaded78\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) player beat estimates on both lines, which naturally was a positive surprise. Record deliveries had been announced in early July already, thus this was not a surprise any longer. The company&#39;s revenue growth rate was very attractive, but that was, at least partially, due to the easy comparison to the weak results from the previous year&#39;s second quarter. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, revenues were up around 7% -- which is still very meaningful, but which annualizes to around 30%. This implies that Tesla will experience a significant growth slowdown once the comparison to the previous year&#39;s quarters becomes tougher again. Or, seen differently, growth is slowing down -- although it is still well north of the growth that legacy auto players are experiencing.</p><h2 id=\"id_2980243369\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Margins Continue To Compress, Free Cash Generation Is Weak</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">When we look beyond the headline numbers, there were a couple of things in Tesla&#39;s report that did not look great at all. Let&#39;s start with Tesla&#39;s margins, which continued to compress. Tesla bulls have, in the past, argued that the company had massive competitive advantages due to its high margins and that this would warrant a premium valuation versus other automobile companies. The high margins were, according to some Tesla bulls, the result of an excellent operational structure and highly advantaged production technologies. But it seems that these tailwinds have either vanished, or, alternatively, they never existed in the first place, and Tesla was just benefitting from a demand overhang in the EV space.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Over the last couple of quarters, Tesla&#39;s margins have only been moving in one direction -- downward:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a934ba79e0c6fe76f504c963143ac488\" alt=\"Tesla presentation\" title=\"Tesla presentation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\"/><span>Tesla presentation</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">We see that gross margins have dropped from an impressive 25% to just 18% during the second quarter, which implies a hefty 700 base point margin hit. Even worse, margins continued to decline on a sequential basis, which implies that further margin contraction is possible -- we have not passed the nadir yet. While operating margins declined by a little less in absolute terms, dropping 500 base points over the last year, the operating margin decline, in relative terms, was extraordinary, as Tesla&#39;s operating margin dropped by 34%. This means that Tesla now has to generate revenues that are 52% higher than one year ago in order to generate the same amount of operating profit [1/0.66]. This, in turn, explains why Tesla&#39;s operating profits are <em>down</em> year over year, despite the substantial increase in the company&#39;s revenues and deliveries over the last year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While the year-over-year decline has not been very high during the second quarter, it looks like we could see more substantial profit declines during the second half of this year. H2 of 2022 was better profit-wise compared to the first half of 2022, which means that the comparison will become harder for Tesla in H2 of 2023. Since Tesla has experienced a profit decline during the second quarter despite a relatively easy comparison, a more substantial profit decline during Q3 and/or Q4 would not be surprising, I believe.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Operating income did also fall versus the first quarter, despite higher deliveries. To me, this suggests that Tesla&#39;s strategy of lowering the price of its vehicles in order to sell more vehicles is not generating any value for shareholders -- deliveries climb, but when profits are declining, that&#39;s not really helping anyone (at least not investors, which should care about profit).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla has a very clean balance sheet, but the cash flow picture is far from good. Despite profits being much higher, the company generated just $1 billion of free cash flow during the second quarter, and around $1.4 billion during the first half -- that&#39;s a little less than $3 billion annualized, which is far from appealing, considering Tesla is valued at well north of $900 billion. If H2 is comparable to the first half of the current year, Tesla trades at a 300x free cash flow multiple, which is, I believe, incredibly expensive. In other words, for every $1 investors put into Tesla stock, they have a claim on one-third of a cent of free cash flow. Considering that $1 dollar put into short-term treasuries generates around $0.05 per month in interest, the cash flow yield of Tesla stock is pretty weak (and this does not yet factor in that Tesla doesn&#39;t even pay out any of the free cash flow it generates).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There were also some positives in Tesla&#39;s report, of course. While solar deployment was very weak (down 40% year over year), the other, more important, part of Tesla&#39;s energy business performed well. The company deployed 3.7 GWh of storage, which was up more than 200% year over year -- which is a very strong growth rate for sure. While the energy business showed a much weaker revenue growth rate of 74%, that was still strong in absolute terms. The energy business is profitable on a gross cost basis, before factoring in operating expenses, as the gross margin of this unit was 18% during the second quarter. This represents an improvement versus the previous quarter, during which Tesla Energy&#39;s gross margin was 11%.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Unfortunately, the gross margin improvement in the energy business is not sizeable enough to offset the headwinds from falling gross margins in the automotive business, which is why the company-wide gross margin dropped, as shown earlier. Still, if Tesla is able to ramp up the energy business at a compelling pace in the coming quarters while also growing the gross margin over time, this should have a positive impact on Tesla&#39;s company-wide financial results.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While the energy business is small for now (around 7% of Tesla&#39;s automobile revenues), it&#39;s a fast-growing unit with long-term potential, although there are also some uncertainties -- we don&#39;t know yet how large this market will ultimately become, and which company will win out.</p><h2 id=\"id_576248438\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Do New Models Justify This Valuation?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla has gotten a lot of attention in the recent past due to speculation about a $25,000 model that could be manufactured in Mexico, while Tesla also has manufactured the first Cybertruck this summer. How impactful these models will become is up for debate. It is pretty clear that a $25,000 model has a substantial addressable market, as not too many people can (or want to) buy an EV for a much higher price. This holds especially true in emerging markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But on the other hand, there is not a lot of charging infrastructure in some emerging markets, and a $25,000 price may still be too high for many consumers around the world. It is also highly likely that selling a vehicle for a price of $25,000 would not help boost Tesla&#39;s margins -- in general, higher-end vehicles have higher margins than lower-end vehicles. This explains why some of Tesla&#39;s competitors, such as Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK:MBGYY), are getting rid of some of their lower-end models in order to focus on higher-end models, as this is where these companies are generating much higher margins. Mercedes, which has been moving in the opposite direction of Tesla when it comes to focusing on profit instead of volume, has higher gross margins than Tesla.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla could presumably sell a very substantial number of vehicles at $25,000 per car. However, it is far from guaranteed that this would boost Tesla&#39;s profits -- after all, we have seen earlier that volume growth does not translate into earnings growth, and may even go hand in hand with a profit decline (see the Q2 numbers).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Cybertruck will be sold at a substantially higher price and should generate higher margins. But we still don&#39;t know yet how profitable this vehicle will be for Tesla, as the manufacturing process is rather different from Tesla&#39;s other vehicles, and since there are many consumers that don&#39;t like the Cybertruck&#39;s unconventional design.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Looking at Wall Street estimates, the profit outlook isn&#39;t great for Tesla:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d18b2536dfbdec909ab065307fcb315\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"112\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There were barely any EPS upward revisions over the last quarter, while many analysts have lowered their estimates due to the margin pressure Tesla is experiencing. Not even the company&#39;s revenue estimates are moving in the right direction. Earnings per share are forecasted to decline by double digits this year, and while Tesla profits are forecasted to improve in 2024 and beyond, Tesla still looks quite expensive even when we look at profit estimates for the coming years. Tesla trades at 46x 2026&#39;s earnings per share estimate, for example -- that&#39;s three years from now, and still, the earnings yield is just 2%.</p><h2 id=\"id_3530739842\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Final Thoughts</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla beat headline estimates, but the underlying margin picture isn&#39;t pretty. Free cash generation remains rather weak as well, especially compared to the very high market capitalization. Tesla has rallied massively year-to-date (congrats to those that bought at the lows), but I believe it is not a good investment at current prices. Locking in gains today could make sense, which is why I rate Tesla a sell today -- a 300x free cash flow multiple for an automobile company with declining margins and declining profits is just too expensive.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Consider Selling The News?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Consider Selling The News?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-20 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4618210-tesla-sell-the-news><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc. Q2 earnings beat estimates, but margins continued to compress and free cash flows were weak, leading to suggestions that selling shares to lock in gains could be a good move.Despite...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4618210-tesla-sell-the-news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4618210-tesla-sell-the-news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2352050694","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc. Q2 earnings beat estimates, but margins continued to compress and free cash flows were weak, leading to suggestions that selling shares to lock in gains could be a good move.Despite record deliveries and revenue growth, the company's gross margins dropped from 25% to 18% during Q2.Tesla's energy business performed well, with storage deployment up 200% YoY, but this was not enough to offset falling gross margins in the automotive business.Justin SullivanArticle ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported its second quarter earnings results on Wednesday afternoon. While the company beat estimates on both lines, margin compression continued and free cash flows were pretty weak. Due to a very high valuation, I believe that selling shares in order to lock in gains makes sense.What Happened?On Wednesday afternoon, Tesla, Inc. reported its second-quarter earnings results, which can be seen here. The headline numbers looked like this:Seeking AlphaThe electric vehicle (\"EV\") player beat estimates on both lines, which naturally was a positive surprise. Record deliveries had been announced in early July already, thus this was not a surprise any longer. The company's revenue growth rate was very attractive, but that was, at least partially, due to the easy comparison to the weak results from the previous year's second quarter. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, revenues were up around 7% -- which is still very meaningful, but which annualizes to around 30%. This implies that Tesla will experience a significant growth slowdown once the comparison to the previous year's quarters becomes tougher again. Or, seen differently, growth is slowing down -- although it is still well north of the growth that legacy auto players are experiencing.Margins Continue To Compress, Free Cash Generation Is WeakWhen we look beyond the headline numbers, there were a couple of things in Tesla's report that did not look great at all. Let's start with Tesla's margins, which continued to compress. Tesla bulls have, in the past, argued that the company had massive competitive advantages due to its high margins and that this would warrant a premium valuation versus other automobile companies. The high margins were, according to some Tesla bulls, the result of an excellent operational structure and highly advantaged production technologies. But it seems that these tailwinds have either vanished, or, alternatively, they never existed in the first place, and Tesla was just benefitting from a demand overhang in the EV space.Over the last couple of quarters, Tesla's margins have only been moving in one direction -- downward:Tesla presentationWe see that gross margins have dropped from an impressive 25% to just 18% during the second quarter, which implies a hefty 700 base point margin hit. Even worse, margins continued to decline on a sequential basis, which implies that further margin contraction is possible -- we have not passed the nadir yet. While operating margins declined by a little less in absolute terms, dropping 500 base points over the last year, the operating margin decline, in relative terms, was extraordinary, as Tesla's operating margin dropped by 34%. This means that Tesla now has to generate revenues that are 52% higher than one year ago in order to generate the same amount of operating profit [1/0.66]. This, in turn, explains why Tesla's operating profits are down year over year, despite the substantial increase in the company's revenues and deliveries over the last year.While the year-over-year decline has not been very high during the second quarter, it looks like we could see more substantial profit declines during the second half of this year. H2 of 2022 was better profit-wise compared to the first half of 2022, which means that the comparison will become harder for Tesla in H2 of 2023. Since Tesla has experienced a profit decline during the second quarter despite a relatively easy comparison, a more substantial profit decline during Q3 and/or Q4 would not be surprising, I believe.Operating income did also fall versus the first quarter, despite higher deliveries. To me, this suggests that Tesla's strategy of lowering the price of its vehicles in order to sell more vehicles is not generating any value for shareholders -- deliveries climb, but when profits are declining, that's not really helping anyone (at least not investors, which should care about profit).Tesla has a very clean balance sheet, but the cash flow picture is far from good. Despite profits being much higher, the company generated just $1 billion of free cash flow during the second quarter, and around $1.4 billion during the first half -- that's a little less than $3 billion annualized, which is far from appealing, considering Tesla is valued at well north of $900 billion. If H2 is comparable to the first half of the current year, Tesla trades at a 300x free cash flow multiple, which is, I believe, incredibly expensive. In other words, for every $1 investors put into Tesla stock, they have a claim on one-third of a cent of free cash flow. Considering that $1 dollar put into short-term treasuries generates around $0.05 per month in interest, the cash flow yield of Tesla stock is pretty weak (and this does not yet factor in that Tesla doesn't even pay out any of the free cash flow it generates).There were also some positives in Tesla's report, of course. While solar deployment was very weak (down 40% year over year), the other, more important, part of Tesla's energy business performed well. The company deployed 3.7 GWh of storage, which was up more than 200% year over year -- which is a very strong growth rate for sure. While the energy business showed a much weaker revenue growth rate of 74%, that was still strong in absolute terms. The energy business is profitable on a gross cost basis, before factoring in operating expenses, as the gross margin of this unit was 18% during the second quarter. This represents an improvement versus the previous quarter, during which Tesla Energy's gross margin was 11%.Unfortunately, the gross margin improvement in the energy business is not sizeable enough to offset the headwinds from falling gross margins in the automotive business, which is why the company-wide gross margin dropped, as shown earlier. Still, if Tesla is able to ramp up the energy business at a compelling pace in the coming quarters while also growing the gross margin over time, this should have a positive impact on Tesla's company-wide financial results.While the energy business is small for now (around 7% of Tesla's automobile revenues), it's a fast-growing unit with long-term potential, although there are also some uncertainties -- we don't know yet how large this market will ultimately become, and which company will win out.Do New Models Justify This Valuation?Tesla has gotten a lot of attention in the recent past due to speculation about a $25,000 model that could be manufactured in Mexico, while Tesla also has manufactured the first Cybertruck this summer. How impactful these models will become is up for debate. It is pretty clear that a $25,000 model has a substantial addressable market, as not too many people can (or want to) buy an EV for a much higher price. This holds especially true in emerging markets.But on the other hand, there is not a lot of charging infrastructure in some emerging markets, and a $25,000 price may still be too high for many consumers around the world. It is also highly likely that selling a vehicle for a price of $25,000 would not help boost Tesla's margins -- in general, higher-end vehicles have higher margins than lower-end vehicles. This explains why some of Tesla's competitors, such as Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK:MBGYY), are getting rid of some of their lower-end models in order to focus on higher-end models, as this is where these companies are generating much higher margins. Mercedes, which has been moving in the opposite direction of Tesla when it comes to focusing on profit instead of volume, has higher gross margins than Tesla.Tesla could presumably sell a very substantial number of vehicles at $25,000 per car. However, it is far from guaranteed that this would boost Tesla's profits -- after all, we have seen earlier that volume growth does not translate into earnings growth, and may even go hand in hand with a profit decline (see the Q2 numbers).The Cybertruck will be sold at a substantially higher price and should generate higher margins. But we still don't know yet how profitable this vehicle will be for Tesla, as the manufacturing process is rather different from Tesla's other vehicles, and since there are many consumers that don't like the Cybertruck's unconventional design.Looking at Wall Street estimates, the profit outlook isn't great for Tesla:Seeking AlphaThere were barely any EPS upward revisions over the last quarter, while many analysts have lowered their estimates due to the margin pressure Tesla is experiencing. Not even the company's revenue estimates are moving in the right direction. Earnings per share are forecasted to decline by double digits this year, and while Tesla profits are forecasted to improve in 2024 and beyond, Tesla still looks quite expensive even when we look at profit estimates for the coming years. Tesla trades at 46x 2026's earnings per share estimate, for example -- that's three years from now, and still, the earnings yield is just 2%.Final ThoughtsTesla beat headline estimates, but the underlying margin picture isn't pretty. Free cash generation remains rather weak as well, especially compared to the very high market capitalization. Tesla has rallied massively year-to-date (congrats to those that bought at the lows), but I believe it is not a good investment at current prices. Locking in gains today could make sense, which is why I rate Tesla a sell today -- a 300x free cash flow multiple for an automobile company with declining margins and declining profits is just too expensive.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351417391546496,"gmtCreate":1726833836393,"gmtModify":1726836904133,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Isnt HK = China ?&nbsp;","listText":"Isnt HK = China ?&nbsp;","text":"Isnt HK = China ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351417391546496","repostId":"2468658038","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2468658038","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1726797653,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2468658038?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-20 10:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"DBS Sees Wealth Fees Doubling by 2027 as the Rich Head to Asia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2468658038","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"DBS Group Holdings Ltd. aims to double fees from wealth management by 2027 as more of the world’s affluent investors shift their assets to Asia.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/D05.SI\">DBS Group Holdings</a> aims to double fees from wealth management by 2027 as more of the world’s affluent investors shift their assets to Asia.</p><p>DBS’s income from servicing rich clients rose to more than S$2 billion ($1.5 billion) last year, doubling from 2015. It expects the same pace of increase in half that period as well-heeled people and family offices from various parts of the world head to Asia to park their money, said Shee Tse Koon, head of consumer and wealth banking at DBS.</p><p>“Given the trajectory and traction we have had over the past years, our aim going forward is that by 2027 we want to double our wealth fees,” Shee said in an interview with Bloomberg News this week. Wealthy clients of Southeast Asia’s largest bank usually invest their cash to improve returns and many have also tapped DBS for their trust and legacy planning needs, he said.</p><p>Shee’s optimism underscores the significance of rising wealth fees that boosted DBS’s income in recent years and will likely cushion its earnings with global interest rates set to decline. DBS is now the third-largest private bank in Asia, excluding China, only behind UBS Group AG and HSBC Holdings Plc, according to rankings by Asian Private Banker. </p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cb8dca0d31fce408d9bfcf95b20a9b3\" tg-width=\"442\" tg-height=\"237\"/></p><p>The assets of DBS clients, including those at the private bank and lower-rung tiers, reached S$396 billion as of June. That is set to exceed S$500 billion by 2027 with the number of clients investing and buying insurance products expected to quadruple, Shee said without specifying the numbers. The bank also handles a third of Singapore’s 1,650 single family offices, he said.</p><p>Singapore saw a $120 billion surge in financial assets booked from overseas last year, with China being the top source of new wealth in absolute terms, according to a Boston Consulting Group report published in July. Shee said there’s been “a good mix” of assets from North and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe with no particularly dominant region. </p><p>The bank has grown its relationship manager headcount by around 20% since the middle of 2023, Shee said, adding that hiring continues and that they’re still working out future headcount. DBS had 730 relationship managers as of 2023, up 12% from a year ago and the second highest in Asia, excluding China, according to Asian Private Banker.</p><p>DBS has two booking centers — Singapore and Hong Kong — for its wealthy clients across the regions. While the bank is seeing more traction from clients in Dubai, India and London, Shee said there is “no compelling reason” for now to consider the United Arab Emirates city as its third booking hub.</p><p>DBS, like other banks, has grappled with ensuring that assets of its clients are clean. In July, the bank was fined HKD10 million ($1.3 million) by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for lapses including failure to continuously monitor business relationships and to establish the source of wealth of high-risk customers between 2012 and 2019. In Singapore, DBS had some S$100 million exposure to clients who were convicted this year in the city-state’s largest money-laundering case where more than S$3 billion of assets were seized.</p><p>DBS is constantly investing in both technology and people to detect misconduct and illicit flows, Shee said. It’s also boosting its surveillance and monitoring systems to keep pace with emerging criminal trends, he added. </p><p>“The whole point is how you balance between being effective in anti-money laundering and risk management and yet remain efficient and open for business,” he said.</p><p>Other highlights from the interview:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>DBS is open to additional partnerships in India where it has more than 500 branches. The bank is already working with local firms in areas like term insurance and mutual funds distribution</p></li><li><p>Following acquisition of $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$.’s retail business in Taiwan, DBS is seeing strong business especially in credit cards</p></li><li><p>More than half of DBS relationship managers are using generative-artificial intelligence in an early phase of a pilot project that helps them prepare investment conversations with clients</p></li></ul><p></p></body></html>","source":"bnn_bloomberg_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DBS Sees Wealth Fees Doubling by 2027 as the Rich Head to Asia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDBS Sees Wealth Fees Doubling by 2027 as the Rich Head to Asia\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-20 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/dbs-sees-wealth-fees-doubling-by-2027-as-the-rich-head-to-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DBS Group Holdings aims to double fees from wealth management by 2027 as more of the world’s affluent investors shift their assets to Asia.DBS’s income from servicing rich clients rose to more than S$...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/dbs-sees-wealth-fees-doubling-by-2027-as-the-rich-head-to-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0831103253.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - 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Asia Growth A (acc) SGD","LU0048573645.USD":"富达东盟基金","LU0823417653.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","BK6516":"银行与投资服务概念","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0251143029.SGD":"Fidelity ASEAN A-SGD","LU0210637038.USD":"HSBC GIF THAI EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","BK6523":"ESG概念","LU0955669360.SGD":"Schroder ISF Asian Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","SG9999000459.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity SGD","LU0823397285.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0737861269.HKD":"FIDELITY ASEAN \"A \" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/dbs-sees-wealth-fees-doubling-by-2027-as-the-rich-head-to-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2468658038","content_text":"DBS Group Holdings aims to double fees from wealth management by 2027 as more of the world’s affluent investors shift their assets to Asia.DBS’s income from servicing rich clients rose to more than S$2 billion ($1.5 billion) last year, doubling from 2015. It expects the same pace of increase in half that period as well-heeled people and family offices from various parts of the world head to Asia to park their money, said Shee Tse Koon, head of consumer and wealth banking at DBS.“Given the trajectory and traction we have had over the past years, our aim going forward is that by 2027 we want to double our wealth fees,” Shee said in an interview with Bloomberg News this week. Wealthy clients of Southeast Asia’s largest bank usually invest their cash to improve returns and many have also tapped DBS for their trust and legacy planning needs, he said.Shee’s optimism underscores the significance of rising wealth fees that boosted DBS’s income in recent years and will likely cushion its earnings with global interest rates set to decline. DBS is now the third-largest private bank in Asia, excluding China, only behind UBS Group AG and HSBC Holdings Plc, according to rankings by Asian Private Banker. The assets of DBS clients, including those at the private bank and lower-rung tiers, reached S$396 billion as of June. That is set to exceed S$500 billion by 2027 with the number of clients investing and buying insurance products expected to quadruple, Shee said without specifying the numbers. The bank also handles a third of Singapore’s 1,650 single family offices, he said.Singapore saw a $120 billion surge in financial assets booked from overseas last year, with China being the top source of new wealth in absolute terms, according to a Boston Consulting Group report published in July. Shee said there’s been “a good mix” of assets from North and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe with no particularly dominant region. The bank has grown its relationship manager headcount by around 20% since the middle of 2023, Shee said, adding that hiring continues and that they’re still working out future headcount. DBS had 730 relationship managers as of 2023, up 12% from a year ago and the second highest in Asia, excluding China, according to Asian Private Banker.DBS has two booking centers — Singapore and Hong Kong — for its wealthy clients across the regions. While the bank is seeing more traction from clients in Dubai, India and London, Shee said there is “no compelling reason” for now to consider the United Arab Emirates city as its third booking hub.DBS, like other banks, has grappled with ensuring that assets of its clients are clean. In July, the bank was fined HKD10 million ($1.3 million) by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for lapses including failure to continuously monitor business relationships and to establish the source of wealth of high-risk customers between 2012 and 2019. In Singapore, DBS had some S$100 million exposure to clients who were convicted this year in the city-state’s largest money-laundering case where more than S$3 billion of assets were seized.DBS is constantly investing in both technology and people to detect misconduct and illicit flows, Shee said. It’s also boosting its surveillance and monitoring systems to keep pace with emerging criminal trends, he added. “The whole point is how you balance between being effective in anti-money laundering and risk management and yet remain efficient and open for business,” he said.Other highlights from the interview:DBS is open to additional partnerships in India where it has more than 500 branches. The bank is already working with local firms in areas like term insurance and mutual funds distributionFollowing acquisition of $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$.’s retail business in Taiwan, DBS is seeing strong business especially in credit cardsMore than half of DBS relationship managers are using generative-artificial intelligence in an early phase of a pilot project that helps them prepare investment conversations with clients","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":300860266229792,"gmtCreate":1714468235009,"gmtModify":1714468395403,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well fargo cannot be trusted&nbsp;","listText":"Well fargo cannot be trusted&nbsp;","text":"Well fargo cannot be trusted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300860266229792","repostId":"2431848642","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2431848642","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1714465356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2431848642?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-04-30 16:22","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Big Rally on China Developments Is Called Overdone by Wells Fargo","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2431848642","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a big rally on Monday, with shares up as much as 18% after Elon Musk's surprise visit to China and the announcement of an expansion of the company's partnership with Baidu (BID","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a big rally on Monday, with shares up 15% after Elon Musk&#39;s surprise visit to China and the announcement of an expansion of the company&#39;s partnership with Baidu (BIDU).</p><p>Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said he was surprised by the big share price move on Monday, given the firm sees limited EPS impact and with deal details far from certain.</p><p>&#34;The partnership with Baidu helped ease China regulators&#39; concerns over data security. However, there&#39;re no details of the partnership in terms of economics &amp; data sharing. Also, TSLA&#39;s FSD system is vision-only with decisions that are not dependent on mapping, so Baidu&#39;s role in the FSD tech is unclear.&#34;</p><p>Langan also warned that there could be restrictions on sharing data, which could limit Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) ability to leverage the tech progress it has seen in the U.S.</p><p>There is also the glaring point that Chinese electric vehicle makers are fast followers and could undercut Tesla (TSLA) on pricing. Advanced driver-assistance systems are already going mainstream in China, with XPeng (XPEV) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) two of the notable players. Li Auto (LI) and BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) also have advanced driver-assistance systems plans of their own.</p><p>Morgan Stanley went in a different direction with the Tesla (TSLA) developments. Notably, analyst Adam Jonas said investor concerns about the focus of Elon Musk on Tesla (TSLA) could be alleviated after the China trip. Jonas said achieving a potential détente with the Chinese government on such areas as autonomous driving/FSD is surprising and deserves greater research and understanding.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Big Rally on China Developments Is Called Overdone by Wells Fargo</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Big Rally on China Developments Is Called Overdone by Wells Fargo\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-30 16:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4095786-teslas-big-rally-on-china-developments-is-called-overdone-by-wells-fargo><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a big rally on Monday, with shares up 15% after Elon Musk's surprise visit to China and the announcement of an expansion of the company's partnership with Baidu (BIDU).Wells ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4095786-teslas-big-rally-on-china-developments-is-called-overdone-by-wells-fargo\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89888":"百度集团-SWR","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK1588":"回港中概股","BYDDF":"BYD Co., Ltd.","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","BIDU":"百度","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK1587":"次新股","LI":"理想汽车","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","XIACF":"Xiaomi Corp.","LU0043850808.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","09888":"百度集团-SW","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0856984785.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"ACH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1115378108.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Emerging Markets Dynamic AS SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4095786-teslas-big-rally-on-china-developments-is-called-overdone-by-wells-fargo","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2431848642","content_text":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a big rally on Monday, with shares up 15% after Elon Musk's surprise visit to China and the announcement of an expansion of the company's partnership with Baidu (BIDU).Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said he was surprised by the big share price move on Monday, given the firm sees limited EPS impact and with deal details far from certain.\"The partnership with Baidu helped ease China regulators' concerns over data security. However, there're no details of the partnership in terms of economics & data sharing. Also, TSLA's FSD system is vision-only with decisions that are not dependent on mapping, so Baidu's role in the FSD tech is unclear.\"Langan also warned that there could be restrictions on sharing data, which could limit Tesla's (TSLA) ability to leverage the tech progress it has seen in the U.S.There is also the glaring point that Chinese electric vehicle makers are fast followers and could undercut Tesla (TSLA) on pricing. Advanced driver-assistance systems are already going mainstream in China, with XPeng (XPEV) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) two of the notable players. Li Auto (LI) and BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) also have advanced driver-assistance systems plans of their own.Morgan Stanley went in a different direction with the Tesla (TSLA) developments. Notably, analyst Adam Jonas said investor concerns about the focus of Elon Musk on Tesla (TSLA) could be alleviated after the China trip. Jonas said achieving a potential détente with the Chinese government on such areas as autonomous driving/FSD is surprising and deserves greater research and understanding.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284192333799704,"gmtCreate":1710398902822,"gmtModify":1710399219829,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holding on to 13.5k since $15","listText":"Holding on to 13.5k since $15","text":"Holding on to 13.5k since $15","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284192333799704","repostId":"2419163746","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2419163746","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1710396000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2419163746?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-14 14:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Why I Am Not Selling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2419163746","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$'s Q4 2023 revenue grew by 20% YoY to $608.4 million, driven by streamlined go-to-market and increased customer acquisition in the U.S. commercial sector.Palantir exp","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a>&#39;s Q4 2023 revenue grew by 20% YoY to $608.4 million, driven by streamlined go-to-market and increased customer acquisition in the U.S. commercial sector.</p></li><li><p>Palantir expects upward growth of at least 40% in the U.S. commercial segment for the year, highlighting strong revenue momentum.</p></li><li><p>Despite anticipating a market correction, the long-term outlook for Palantir Technologies remains positive, supported by solid fundamentals and aggressive growth strategies.</p></li><li><p>Following the strong bull run YTD, a pullback in Palantir Technologies is necessary before breaking into new highs.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3566456717\">Investment Thesis</h2><p>Since our in-depth analysis of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> in February 2022, when we first presented a bullish stance on the stock, the company has remarkably validated our conviction, richly rewarding patient investors.</p><p>Our confidence was well-placed; since doubling down on our position, PLTR has delivered a staggering return of over 230% in less than 17 months. This exceptional performance is underpinned by consecutive profitability milestones, robust growth metrics, impressive conversion rates, and the impactful deployment of AI capabilities, all contributing to a sustained bull run.</p><p>However, despite the significant gains, we anticipate a necessary pullback correction before PLTR reaches new heights. This expected correction should be viewed not as a deterrent, but as a potential opportunity for investors to enter or increase their positions in anticipation of further growth.</p><p>Therefore, our long-term investment thesis remains intact, underpinned by Palantir&#39;s solid fundamentals, strategic growth initiatives, and the broadening application of its AI technologies.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/044c0989cab46968f91e82f129c09235\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2 id=\"id_420075811\">Powering Growth and Diversification in the Commercial Sector</h2><p>Artificial intelligence platforms (AIP) momentum drives new customer conversions and existing customer expansions. The transformative effect of AIP on the business is best highlighted in the U.S. commercial bookings and backlog. Palantir experienced noteworthy achievements in the U.S. commercial sector, the most significant being shorter times to conversion and expansion (from a prototype to a product in months).</p><p>By the 31st of December 2023, PLTR had 497 customers, with the commercial segment reporting high customer count growth of 14% quarter-over-quarter, while the government segment remained flat. The commercial segment experienced significant growth, with fourth-quarter revenue increasing by 32% year-over-year (YoY) and full-year revenue growing by 20%, <strong>exceeding $1 billion</strong> for the first time.</p><p>Additionally, the US Commercial revenue in Q4 surged by 70% YoY, reaching $131 million. With a revamped go-to-market strategy and piloting approach followed by significantly compressed sales cycles, the U.S. customer count grew by 55% YoY to 221, reflecting a robust market presence. This acceleration is attributed to a surge in demand, resulting in the highest commercial Total Contract Value (TCV) booked in a quarter, showcasing a 156% growth YoY. Hence, the strategic expansion and increased demand in the U.S. contributed majorly to this growth.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e3f3d334334b2a0f85573e224db1d8a\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"768\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>Palantir&#39;s accelerated customer acquisition process stems from three key drivers. First, boot camps are rapidly transitioning into paying customers. In Palantir boot camps, participants and potential users <strong>learn how to apply AI</strong> to mission-critical operations within their organizations. They progress from having no prior knowledge to building practical use cases.</p><p>Once they feel empowered by Palantir&#39;s AI capabilities, the majority of them will convert into paying customers. Second, there&#39;s growth among existing customers and those with longstanding engagements with Palantir. Third, the introduction of AIP has further fueled this momentum. Despite these gains, Palantir recognizes that they have merely scratched the surface of their total addressable market, or TAM; they&#39;re only just getting started.</p><p>The firm also reported a meaningful increase in their US commercial TCV on a dollar-weighted duration basis, up 107% YoY and 42% sequentially. In the fourth quarter, TCV booked was 1.15 billion, up 192% YoY and 38% sequentially. Net dollar retention was 108%, an increase of 100 basis points from last quarter. They ended the fourth quarter with $3.9 billion in total remaining deal value, an increase of 5% sequentially. AIP boosted Palantir&#39;s total addressable market, with the TCV in the U.S. commercial segment reaching $343 million, showcasing a remarkable 107% growth YoY.</p><p>Additionally, Palantir remains an outlier among its peers, as the <strong>company&#39;s average revenue per customer</strong> (ARPC) remains off the chart compared to its peers, delivering a staggering ARPC of $4.5 million. The top 20 high-value customers drive most of Palantir&#39;s revenue. However, reliance on these customers is slowly <strong>declining</strong>, signifying the company&#39;s effort to serve an expansive and diverse market. On the positive side, the top 20 customers&#39; contribution to total revenue dropped to 49.4% based on TTM as of December 2023, compared to 57.1% in FY21. As a result, the average revenue per customer of PLTR dropped below $5 million based on the latest TTM revenue, compared to $6.5 million in FY21.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7330b3dbe0063739a11a0feb0b9f4d4c\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"768\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>Finally, Palantir&#39;s remaining performance obligations (RPO) recovery also suggests improving revenue growth in the coming quarters. The company&#39;s net dollar retention remains above 100.0%, which indicates that the PLTR platform&#39;s stickiness has remained intact. Net dollar retention does not include revenue from new customers they acquired in the past 12 months and, therefore, <strong>does not yet fully capture the acceleration</strong> in their U.S. commercial business.</p><h2 id=\"id_3060580783\">AIP Upgrade: Seamless LLM Integration for Quicker Decisions and Market Expansion</h2><p>Palantir Technologies has recently enhanced its AIP platform by integrating large language models (LLMs), augmenting user-friendliness and power. AIP facilitates the seamless connection of LLMs with user data, aiding decision-making. The AIP Bootcamp expedites customer onboarding, contributing to remarkably swift time-to-market.</p><p>Integrating LLMs with Foundry through AIP significantly broadens the accessibility of deploying use cases, expanding the addressable market. While the company is observing initial momentum, it acknowledges that it is still at the initial stage of capturing this expanded market. Palantir has successfully covered nearly 200 use cases from AIP Boot camps, underscoring the potential of this approach, with a focus on data integration as a core value-driving principle.</p><p>AIP enables the integration of diverse data types, such as video conferences, incident response calls, Slack rooms, PDFs, images, video, and audio, leveraging the power of LLMs and ontology. The acceleration in AIP customer engagement is anticipated to continue, fueled by its adaptability and versatility.</p><p>The recent quarter saw Palantir signing multiple U.S. commercial deals, where AIP played a pivotal role in driving various deal archetypes. New customers attending boot camps swiftly signing enterprise contracts, AIP-driven conversions of ongoing pilots, and expansions in existing accounts are illustrative examples. Internationally, AIP reinforces partnerships in Continental Europe and fosters growth in select markets.</p><p>Lastly, Palantir&#39;s focus on enhancing product usability and charisma through AI-driven developments, particularly in LLMs, marks a convergence aimed at broadening Foundry&#39;s market appeal. Current research and development efforts are directed toward deploying software, models, and assets at the edge, aligning with the growing market trend of edge computing - positioning Palantir favorably to secure a substantial share in this evolving landscape.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f3ab05e66d0cabae9105e27861c0d0e\" alt=\"LLM - Palantir Defense\" title=\"LLM - Palantir Defense\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"/><span>LLM - Palantir Defense</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3599242473\">Turning Complex Challenges into Competitive Advantage with AIP Bootcamps</h2><p>Rather than rejecting projects with risky and resource-intensive installation requirements, Palantir actively seeks them out. They&#39;ve obtained strict government clearances, manage complex data environments, offer cloud-agnostic integration, and don&#39;t shy away from long sales cycles. These are substantial barriers to entry for competitors.</p><p>Still, their fundamental competition is their own customers&#39; internal software development. AIP Bootcamp makes platform onboarding much easier and forcefully addresses this competitive risk. Bootcamp teaches end-users how to use AIP effectively.</p><p>Additionally, Palantir is strategically intensifying efforts to convert boot camps into enterprise deals, evident in the noteworthy impact on sales cycles and the accelerated rate of new customer acquisition. In Q4, U.S. commercial saw a sequential rise of 22%, a substantial increase compared to 12% and 4% in Q3 and Q2, respectively.</p><p>The success stories include new customers attending boot camps and promptly signing enterprise contracts, demonstrating the efficacy of this conversion strategy. Cold outreaches leading to boot camps and subsequent enterprise agreements highlight the streamlined approach.</p><p>AIP-driven conversions of ongoing pilots constitute another facet of Palantir&#39;s successful strategy. Companies engaged in a pilot, during which AIP was introduced, ultimately converted to enterprise agreements. Moreover, AIP has been instrumental in driving expansions within existing key accounts. Demonstrating speed to value at boot camps, Palantir showcased its ability to deliver new use cases atop existing ontologies in as little as 24 hours, contributing significantly to successful agreements.</p><p>In tandem with the emphasis on boot camps, Palantir is strategically deepening its distribution channels to swiftly capitalize on opportunities in specific regions, focusing on expanding its presence in Japan. Hence, these strategic maneuvers underscore Palantir&#39;s commitment to driving efficient conversions, expanding market reach, and solidifying its position as a leader in the data integration landscape.</p><h2 id=\"id_2288010704\">How Palantir&#39;s Self-Selling Software Soars Beyond the Aviation Industry</h2><p>Palantir&#39;s greatest strength is product-led acquisition. They have dedicated support agents for each deployment. Then, they let the software sell itself by deepening existing relationships or cross-selling to businesses that work with their customers. The prime example is Skywise, initially built for Airbus SE (OTCPK:EADSF) but which has expanded throughout the airline industry.</p><p>Skywise is an aviation platform that is the central operating system of the airline industry. Adoption has been swift. Since June 2017, Skywise has expanded from zero to more than one hundred airlines. Each one is now an existing or potential customer - this is a product-led acquisition - something that will be an industry-agnostic tailwind for PLTR growth in the coming years.</p><p>When other airlines saw the benefits of PLTR software, they swiftly engaged with the company. No outbound sales efforts were needed because the platform sold itself. This platform initially grew from a single customer relationship with Airbus.</p><p>The platform&#39;s ability to garner new clients without outbound sales efforts, relying on the software&#39;s intrinsic value, underscores the effectiveness of Palantir&#39;s strategic approach and positions the company favorably for sustained expansion across diverse sectors.</p><h2 id=\"id_129334450\">Unlocking Value Beyond the Surface</h2><p>Despite the initial impression that Palantir is trading at elevated multiples, a more in-depth analysis reveals a nuanced perspective. About a year ago, the company achieved a significant milestone by transitioning to profitability. While its valuation might appear high initially, it likely reflects the market&#39;s recognition of PLTR&#39;s improved margin and, critically, the substantial potential of AIP.</p><p>This potential can extend the company&#39;s market reach beyond government contracts, venturing into diverse use cases within the commercial segment. Palantir&#39;s substantial government contracts and growing presence in pivotal industries like defense, healthcare, and finance, bolstered by strategic partnerships, further underscore its considerable long-term potential in the market.</p><p>Rule of 40 analysis holds significance for software or SaaS companies, signifying that those attaining a combined score of 40.0% in revenue growth and margin (with EBITDA margin in this instance) are more likely to achieve sustainable growth. PLTR can exceed the 40.0% threshold (sum of growth and margin) by revitalizing its revenue growth beyond 30.0% and continuing the upward trend in profitability margin.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/905e373641d072897f210cca42db058b\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"768\"/><span>Author</span></p><h2 id=\"id_353816885\">Takeaway</h2><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. has outperformed expectations, delivering impressive returns and highlighting its strategic prowess and robust growth in the AI sector. Despite anticipating a market correction, the long-term outlook for PLTR remains positive, supported by solid fundamentals and aggressive growth strategies.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Why I Am Not Selling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Why I Am Not Selling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-14 14:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677924-palantir-why-i-am-not-selling><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies Inc.'s Q4 2023 revenue grew by 20% YoY to $608.4 million, driven by streamlined go-to-market and increased customer acquisition in the U.S. commercial sector.Palantir expects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677924-palantir-why-i-am-not-selling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4543":"AI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4588":"碎股","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4192":"特殊消费者服务"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677924-palantir-why-i-am-not-selling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2419163746","content_text":"Palantir Technologies Inc.'s Q4 2023 revenue grew by 20% YoY to $608.4 million, driven by streamlined go-to-market and increased customer acquisition in the U.S. commercial sector.Palantir expects upward growth of at least 40% in the U.S. commercial segment for the year, highlighting strong revenue momentum.Despite anticipating a market correction, the long-term outlook for Palantir Technologies remains positive, supported by solid fundamentals and aggressive growth strategies.Following the strong bull run YTD, a pullback in Palantir Technologies is necessary before breaking into new highs.Investment ThesisSince our in-depth analysis of Palantir Technologies Inc. in February 2022, when we first presented a bullish stance on the stock, the company has remarkably validated our conviction, richly rewarding patient investors.Our confidence was well-placed; since doubling down on our position, PLTR has delivered a staggering return of over 230% in less than 17 months. This exceptional performance is underpinned by consecutive profitability milestones, robust growth metrics, impressive conversion rates, and the impactful deployment of AI capabilities, all contributing to a sustained bull run.However, despite the significant gains, we anticipate a necessary pullback correction before PLTR reaches new heights. This expected correction should be viewed not as a deterrent, but as a potential opportunity for investors to enter or increase their positions in anticipation of further growth.Therefore, our long-term investment thesis remains intact, underpinned by Palantir's solid fundamentals, strategic growth initiatives, and the broadening application of its AI technologies.Data by YChartsPowering Growth and Diversification in the Commercial SectorArtificial intelligence platforms (AIP) momentum drives new customer conversions and existing customer expansions. The transformative effect of AIP on the business is best highlighted in the U.S. commercial bookings and backlog. Palantir experienced noteworthy achievements in the U.S. commercial sector, the most significant being shorter times to conversion and expansion (from a prototype to a product in months).By the 31st of December 2023, PLTR had 497 customers, with the commercial segment reporting high customer count growth of 14% quarter-over-quarter, while the government segment remained flat. The commercial segment experienced significant growth, with fourth-quarter revenue increasing by 32% year-over-year (YoY) and full-year revenue growing by 20%, exceeding $1 billion for the first time.Additionally, the US Commercial revenue in Q4 surged by 70% YoY, reaching $131 million. With a revamped go-to-market strategy and piloting approach followed by significantly compressed sales cycles, the U.S. customer count grew by 55% YoY to 221, reflecting a robust market presence. This acceleration is attributed to a surge in demand, resulting in the highest commercial Total Contract Value (TCV) booked in a quarter, showcasing a 156% growth YoY. Hence, the strategic expansion and increased demand in the U.S. contributed majorly to this growth.AuthorPalantir's accelerated customer acquisition process stems from three key drivers. First, boot camps are rapidly transitioning into paying customers. In Palantir boot camps, participants and potential users learn how to apply AI to mission-critical operations within their organizations. They progress from having no prior knowledge to building practical use cases.Once they feel empowered by Palantir's AI capabilities, the majority of them will convert into paying customers. Second, there's growth among existing customers and those with longstanding engagements with Palantir. Third, the introduction of AIP has further fueled this momentum. Despite these gains, Palantir recognizes that they have merely scratched the surface of their total addressable market, or TAM; they're only just getting started.The firm also reported a meaningful increase in their US commercial TCV on a dollar-weighted duration basis, up 107% YoY and 42% sequentially. In the fourth quarter, TCV booked was 1.15 billion, up 192% YoY and 38% sequentially. Net dollar retention was 108%, an increase of 100 basis points from last quarter. They ended the fourth quarter with $3.9 billion in total remaining deal value, an increase of 5% sequentially. AIP boosted Palantir's total addressable market, with the TCV in the U.S. commercial segment reaching $343 million, showcasing a remarkable 107% growth YoY.Additionally, Palantir remains an outlier among its peers, as the company's average revenue per customer (ARPC) remains off the chart compared to its peers, delivering a staggering ARPC of $4.5 million. The top 20 high-value customers drive most of Palantir's revenue. However, reliance on these customers is slowly declining, signifying the company's effort to serve an expansive and diverse market. On the positive side, the top 20 customers' contribution to total revenue dropped to 49.4% based on TTM as of December 2023, compared to 57.1% in FY21. As a result, the average revenue per customer of PLTR dropped below $5 million based on the latest TTM revenue, compared to $6.5 million in FY21.AuthorFinally, Palantir's remaining performance obligations (RPO) recovery also suggests improving revenue growth in the coming quarters. The company's net dollar retention remains above 100.0%, which indicates that the PLTR platform's stickiness has remained intact. Net dollar retention does not include revenue from new customers they acquired in the past 12 months and, therefore, does not yet fully capture the acceleration in their U.S. commercial business.AIP Upgrade: Seamless LLM Integration for Quicker Decisions and Market ExpansionPalantir Technologies has recently enhanced its AIP platform by integrating large language models (LLMs), augmenting user-friendliness and power. AIP facilitates the seamless connection of LLMs with user data, aiding decision-making. The AIP Bootcamp expedites customer onboarding, contributing to remarkably swift time-to-market.Integrating LLMs with Foundry through AIP significantly broadens the accessibility of deploying use cases, expanding the addressable market. While the company is observing initial momentum, it acknowledges that it is still at the initial stage of capturing this expanded market. Palantir has successfully covered nearly 200 use cases from AIP Boot camps, underscoring the potential of this approach, with a focus on data integration as a core value-driving principle.AIP enables the integration of diverse data types, such as video conferences, incident response calls, Slack rooms, PDFs, images, video, and audio, leveraging the power of LLMs and ontology. The acceleration in AIP customer engagement is anticipated to continue, fueled by its adaptability and versatility.The recent quarter saw Palantir signing multiple U.S. commercial deals, where AIP played a pivotal role in driving various deal archetypes. New customers attending boot camps swiftly signing enterprise contracts, AIP-driven conversions of ongoing pilots, and expansions in existing accounts are illustrative examples. Internationally, AIP reinforces partnerships in Continental Europe and fosters growth in select markets.Lastly, Palantir's focus on enhancing product usability and charisma through AI-driven developments, particularly in LLMs, marks a convergence aimed at broadening Foundry's market appeal. Current research and development efforts are directed toward deploying software, models, and assets at the edge, aligning with the growing market trend of edge computing - positioning Palantir favorably to secure a substantial share in this evolving landscape.LLM - Palantir DefenseTurning Complex Challenges into Competitive Advantage with AIP BootcampsRather than rejecting projects with risky and resource-intensive installation requirements, Palantir actively seeks them out. They've obtained strict government clearances, manage complex data environments, offer cloud-agnostic integration, and don't shy away from long sales cycles. These are substantial barriers to entry for competitors.Still, their fundamental competition is their own customers' internal software development. AIP Bootcamp makes platform onboarding much easier and forcefully addresses this competitive risk. Bootcamp teaches end-users how to use AIP effectively.Additionally, Palantir is strategically intensifying efforts to convert boot camps into enterprise deals, evident in the noteworthy impact on sales cycles and the accelerated rate of new customer acquisition. In Q4, U.S. commercial saw a sequential rise of 22%, a substantial increase compared to 12% and 4% in Q3 and Q2, respectively.The success stories include new customers attending boot camps and promptly signing enterprise contracts, demonstrating the efficacy of this conversion strategy. Cold outreaches leading to boot camps and subsequent enterprise agreements highlight the streamlined approach.AIP-driven conversions of ongoing pilots constitute another facet of Palantir's successful strategy. Companies engaged in a pilot, during which AIP was introduced, ultimately converted to enterprise agreements. Moreover, AIP has been instrumental in driving expansions within existing key accounts. Demonstrating speed to value at boot camps, Palantir showcased its ability to deliver new use cases atop existing ontologies in as little as 24 hours, contributing significantly to successful agreements.In tandem with the emphasis on boot camps, Palantir is strategically deepening its distribution channels to swiftly capitalize on opportunities in specific regions, focusing on expanding its presence in Japan. Hence, these strategic maneuvers underscore Palantir's commitment to driving efficient conversions, expanding market reach, and solidifying its position as a leader in the data integration landscape.How Palantir's Self-Selling Software Soars Beyond the Aviation IndustryPalantir's greatest strength is product-led acquisition. They have dedicated support agents for each deployment. Then, they let the software sell itself by deepening existing relationships or cross-selling to businesses that work with their customers. The prime example is Skywise, initially built for Airbus SE (OTCPK:EADSF) but which has expanded throughout the airline industry.Skywise is an aviation platform that is the central operating system of the airline industry. Adoption has been swift. Since June 2017, Skywise has expanded from zero to more than one hundred airlines. Each one is now an existing or potential customer - this is a product-led acquisition - something that will be an industry-agnostic tailwind for PLTR growth in the coming years.When other airlines saw the benefits of PLTR software, they swiftly engaged with the company. No outbound sales efforts were needed because the platform sold itself. This platform initially grew from a single customer relationship with Airbus.The platform's ability to garner new clients without outbound sales efforts, relying on the software's intrinsic value, underscores the effectiveness of Palantir's strategic approach and positions the company favorably for sustained expansion across diverse sectors.Unlocking Value Beyond the SurfaceDespite the initial impression that Palantir is trading at elevated multiples, a more in-depth analysis reveals a nuanced perspective. About a year ago, the company achieved a significant milestone by transitioning to profitability. While its valuation might appear high initially, it likely reflects the market's recognition of PLTR's improved margin and, critically, the substantial potential of AIP.This potential can extend the company's market reach beyond government contracts, venturing into diverse use cases within the commercial segment. Palantir's substantial government contracts and growing presence in pivotal industries like defense, healthcare, and finance, bolstered by strategic partnerships, further underscore its considerable long-term potential in the market.Rule of 40 analysis holds significance for software or SaaS companies, signifying that those attaining a combined score of 40.0% in revenue growth and margin (with EBITDA margin in this instance) are more likely to achieve sustainable growth. PLTR can exceed the 40.0% threshold (sum of growth and margin) by revitalizing its revenue growth beyond 30.0% and continuing the upward trend in profitability margin.AuthorTakeawayPalantir Technologies Inc. has outperformed expectations, delivering impressive returns and highlighting its strategic prowess and robust growth in the AI sector. Despite anticipating a market correction, the long-term outlook for PLTR remains positive, supported by solid fundamentals and aggressive growth strategies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378260590514504,"gmtCreate":1733391559110,"gmtModify":1733391563126,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yields will continue to improve and will top estimates.","listText":"Yields will continue to improve and will top estimates.","text":"Yields will continue to improve and will top estimates.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378260590514504","repostId":"1171018441","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171018441","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733379857,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171018441?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-05 14:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Pullback: The Calm Before Takeoff","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171018441","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia’s Data Center revenue soared 112% YoY in Q3 FY2025, hitting $30.8 billion, driven by Hopper GPUs.Blackwell ramp-up reduced gross margins to the low 70s, signaling near-term profitability","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2518164054\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia’s Data Center revenue soared 112% YoY in Q3 FY2025, hitting $30.8 billion, driven by Hopper GPUs.</p></li><li><p>Blackwell ramp-up reduced gross margins to the low 70s, signaling near-term profitability challenges but long-term stability.</p></li><li><p>Revenue diversification across India and Japan counters U.S.-China tensions, doubling regional cloud revenue YoY.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs deliver record efficiency, cutting compute costs by 4x and driving adoption.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia’s stock consolidation sets the stage for a bullish breakout, targeting a $204 price level.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2382634154\">Investment Thesis</h2><p>Since our last coverage, we anticipated Nvidia’s strong Q3 FY2025 results would fuel another bullish run. While Nvidia delivered an earnings beat, with Data Center revenue up 112% YoY to $30.8 billion driven by Hopper H200 GPUs and rising AI workloads, the stock has pulled back due to several factors.</p><p>Near-term gross margin compression from the Blackwell ramp, geopolitical risks from U.S.-China tensions, and market skepticism over AI growth sustainability have weighed on sentiment. Concerns over enterprise digestion phases for AI investments and reliance on China despite regional diversification also contributed. While Nvidia’s long-term outlook remains robust, these headwinds have tempered investor optimism, driving the stock’s decline.</p><p>However, we believe this pullback is a healthy consolidation phase, providing the stock with a necessary pause to absorb its recent gains and establish a stronger support base. This period of stabilization is crucial before Nvidia can build momentum for another bullish breakout toward our $204 technical price target, driven by the sustained demand for AI infrastructure and its robust market leadership.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c66ab1443d3f34ac4303614fa250b332\" alt=\"Yiazou (trendspider.com)\" title=\"Yiazou (trendspider.com)\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"700\"/><span>Yiazou (trendspider.com)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1185090237\">High Demand for AI and Accelerated Computing</h2><p>Nvidia’s Data Center segment had a sequential rise of 17% and an impressive YoY increase of 112% in revenue for Q3 FY2025. From $3.8 billion in Q3 fiscal 2023 to $30.8 billion in Q3 fiscal 2025 (in just 2 years) points to an 8X boom in the segment performance. These revenue numbers are the primary driver of the company’s consolidated revenue. 65% of Nvidia’s revenue was derived from the data center segment in Q3 fiscal 2023, but now the segment contribution has hit 88%. The Hopper architecture (mostly the H200 GPU) holds for much of this growth.</p><p>Sequentially, H200 sales scaled to double-digit billions and marked the fastest ramp ever for Nvidia. Now, Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) contributed ~50% of the Data Center segment’s revenue, which is &gt;2X YoY and points to the scale of AI workloads demanded by cloud environments. Regionally, Nvidia saw a 2x YoY increase in its regional cloud revenue across North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific, reflecting its broad penetration that aligns with CSPs ramping their Nvidia GPU-backed cloud instances.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b23f1065599e5d892cf075ce3c0efb94\" alt=\"Q3 Presentation\" title=\"Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>Moreover, enterprise AI demand led to growth in specific areas (like multimodal and generative AI applications) extending Nvidia’s Data Center products. Blackwell’s launch may extend these trends in the upcoming quarters. Why? The initial performance of Blackwells attained a 2.2x leap against Hoppers and cost metrics points that GPT-3 benchmarks run on only ~64 Blackwell GPUs against ~256 H100s that reduce compute costs by 4x. As adoption scales, this cost-efficiency ratio solidifies Nvidia’s business edge in compute markets. Looking forward, $37.5 billion (~70% YoY) in Q4 revenue is based on continued demand for Hopper architecture and the initial ramping of Blackwell.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9332a08bc6266bcdf093f4bc1f369b9\" alt=\"Q3 Presentation\" title=\"Q3 Presentation\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"632\"/><span>Q3 Presentation</span></p><p>Regarding the concerns on China-specific Data Center revenue, it grew sequentially in Q3 but remained capped due to export controls.</p><blockquote><p>From a geographic perspective, our Data Center revenue in China grew sequentially due to shipments of export-compliant copper products to industries. As a percentage of total Data Center revenue, it <strong>remains well below</strong> levels prior to the onset of export controls. We expect the market in China to remain very competitive going forward.</p><p>Colette Kress, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Q3 2025 Earnings Call).</p></blockquote><p>Now, India has emerged as a potential counterbalance, with CSPs like Tata Communications and Infosys scaling deployments to ~10x GPU capacity within a year. Japan is also a vital growth market. Here, Nvidia’s partnership with SoftBank to build the country’s most powerful AI supercomputer reinforces its market lead in the Asia-Pacific region. These geographic expansions obviously minimize the risk of export restrictions that may intensify more under Trump 2.0. So, Nvidia is diversifying revenue sources across regions with less regulatory friction.</p><p>On the bottom-line, Nvidia’s gross margins of 75% non-GAAP reflect a stable cost structure despite rising OpEx due to Blackwell. The sequential uptick in GAAP operating expenses (+9%) is tied to higher development costs for new products (like Blackwell) pointing to reinvestment for prolonged capability. While demand for Blackwell products may temper margins slightly in the near term (low-70s), these will normalize to mid-70s with a full ramp-up. This continued top-line boom with +70% gross margins is good for the stock in terms of valuation.</p><p>Nvidia’s price-to-sales (PS) ratio stands at 30, near the average of 29.8 (since the AI wave, November 2022). This PS ratio underpins Nvidia’s revenue generation capability at a premium of 1,592.74%. The normalized price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55 is near the lowest level of 46.41 (since the AI wave, November 2022) while the stock offers a 1,744.91% premium on forward earnings. This disparity between current valuation and high growth premiums suggests a potential massive upside in upcoming quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/02192da94d6dd6c2f13b16762c9d42d8\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc0a066867866dfeacba675ecc03dc2a\" alt=\"seekingalpha.com\" title=\"seekingalpha.com\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"221\"/><span>seekingalpha.com</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/01645bc2e099890bc984a67c07ae18ae\" alt=\"seekingalpha.com\" title=\"seekingalpha.com\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"132\"/><span>seekingalpha.com</span></p><h2 id=\"id_262332301\">Scalability Concerns in Margin Pressures During Product Transitions</h2><p>Nvidia stock valuations, to some extent (based on the street sentiment), are dependent on the continued scalability of LLMs. There are three modes of LLM scaling for Nvidia—pre-training, post-training, and inference. Here, this dependence raises questions about the limits of scaling, as transitioning from 100K Hoppers to 100K Blackwells for foundation models may require rapid tech iteration with high CapEx cycles from clients again! Mag 7 (ex NVDA) is already under question for the ROI on AI investments. With a new cycle of Hopper to Blackwell replacement will create investor side concerns if the adoption of new scaling methods does not deliver proportional economic and operational benefits.</p><p>Additionally, as per the company, inference demand points to a growing installed base requiring upgrades but sustaining this demand assumes a constant appetite for AI-native services across enterprises. If industry enthusiasm for AI tapers and if enterprises face internal budget issues due to increasing bottom-line pressures, Nvidia’s infrastructure sales could encounter headwinds.</p><p>As Nvidia transitions from Hopper to Blackwell, gross margin pressure is a weak point. As the CFO projected, gross margins fell to the low 70s at the beginning of the Blackwell ramp, which is down from historically higher levels. The financial impact is critical. Why? First, this marks initial production inefficiencies and client onboarding for Blackwell systems. Further, mid-70s gross margins materialize in H2 2025. For the next quarters, the impact of this margin compression could be significant to dampen profitability (may result in earnings miss). The street may find it troubling as AMD (AMD) is closing the top-line growth gap and outpacing Nvidia in gross profit improvement since Q1 2024.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7afca75a72af71720284c0f9e50d433f\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Overall, Nvidia’s “trillion dollars of data center modernization” and “AI factories” assume a continuous upward demand. However, historical patterns in hardware deployment cycles suggest inevitable digestion phases, where clients pause to optimize and absorb CapEx. Nvidia’s projections may not account for these pauses as massive ROIs are also required for AI infrastructure. As Blackwell ramps, there is also the question of how long Nvidia can go on this pace before hitting saturation in major markets. The company assumes modernization will take several years but macro and geopolitical issues (Biden-Putin-Xi-Trump) can lead to reduced budgets and shifting priorities among enterprise clients and there will be a shift toward software-based optimizations that will for sure dilute demand for Nvidia’s hardware-centric products.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46a5eb060785a7b5feb96a44e620d587\" alt=\"Company Overview IR\" title=\"Company Overview IR\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"559\"/><span>Company Overview IR</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3191182317\">Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia’s recent pullback reflects short-term concerns over margin compression, geopolitical risks, and skepticism about the sustainability of AI-driven growth. However, the company’s exceptional Q3 results, driven by record Data Center performance and accelerating adoption of Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, underscore its leadership in the AI revolution. This consolidation phase is a healthy pause, setting the stage for future growth, as Nvidia remains well-positioned to capitalize on expanding AI infrastructure demand and its strong market foothold across diverse regions. With a $204 technical price target, the long-term investment case for Nvidia remains compelling.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Pullback: The Calm Before Takeoff</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Pullback: The Calm Before Takeoff\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-05 14:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742050-nvidias-pullback-the-calm-before-takeoff><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia’s Data Center revenue soared 112% YoY in Q3 FY2025, hitting $30.8 billion, driven by Hopper GPUs.Blackwell ramp-up reduced gross margins to the low 70s, signaling near-term profitability...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742050-nvidias-pullback-the-calm-before-takeoff\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4742050-nvidias-pullback-the-calm-before-takeoff","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171018441","content_text":"SummaryNvidia’s Data Center revenue soared 112% YoY in Q3 FY2025, hitting $30.8 billion, driven by Hopper GPUs.Blackwell ramp-up reduced gross margins to the low 70s, signaling near-term profitability challenges but long-term stability.Revenue diversification across India and Japan counters U.S.-China tensions, doubling regional cloud revenue YoY.Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs deliver record efficiency, cutting compute costs by 4x and driving adoption.Nvidia’s stock consolidation sets the stage for a bullish breakout, targeting a $204 price level.Investment ThesisSince our last coverage, we anticipated Nvidia’s strong Q3 FY2025 results would fuel another bullish run. While Nvidia delivered an earnings beat, with Data Center revenue up 112% YoY to $30.8 billion driven by Hopper H200 GPUs and rising AI workloads, the stock has pulled back due to several factors.Near-term gross margin compression from the Blackwell ramp, geopolitical risks from U.S.-China tensions, and market skepticism over AI growth sustainability have weighed on sentiment. Concerns over enterprise digestion phases for AI investments and reliance on China despite regional diversification also contributed. While Nvidia’s long-term outlook remains robust, these headwinds have tempered investor optimism, driving the stock’s decline.However, we believe this pullback is a healthy consolidation phase, providing the stock with a necessary pause to absorb its recent gains and establish a stronger support base. This period of stabilization is crucial before Nvidia can build momentum for another bullish breakout toward our $204 technical price target, driven by the sustained demand for AI infrastructure and its robust market leadership.Yiazou (trendspider.com)High Demand for AI and Accelerated ComputingNvidia’s Data Center segment had a sequential rise of 17% and an impressive YoY increase of 112% in revenue for Q3 FY2025. From $3.8 billion in Q3 fiscal 2023 to $30.8 billion in Q3 fiscal 2025 (in just 2 years) points to an 8X boom in the segment performance. These revenue numbers are the primary driver of the company’s consolidated revenue. 65% of Nvidia’s revenue was derived from the data center segment in Q3 fiscal 2023, but now the segment contribution has hit 88%. The Hopper architecture (mostly the H200 GPU) holds for much of this growth.Sequentially, H200 sales scaled to double-digit billions and marked the fastest ramp ever for Nvidia. Now, Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) contributed ~50% of the Data Center segment’s revenue, which is >2X YoY and points to the scale of AI workloads demanded by cloud environments. Regionally, Nvidia saw a 2x YoY increase in its regional cloud revenue across North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific, reflecting its broad penetration that aligns with CSPs ramping their Nvidia GPU-backed cloud instances.Q3 PresentationMoreover, enterprise AI demand led to growth in specific areas (like multimodal and generative AI applications) extending Nvidia’s Data Center products. Blackwell’s launch may extend these trends in the upcoming quarters. Why? The initial performance of Blackwells attained a 2.2x leap against Hoppers and cost metrics points that GPT-3 benchmarks run on only ~64 Blackwell GPUs against ~256 H100s that reduce compute costs by 4x. As adoption scales, this cost-efficiency ratio solidifies Nvidia’s business edge in compute markets. Looking forward, $37.5 billion (~70% YoY) in Q4 revenue is based on continued demand for Hopper architecture and the initial ramping of Blackwell.Q3 PresentationRegarding the concerns on China-specific Data Center revenue, it grew sequentially in Q3 but remained capped due to export controls.From a geographic perspective, our Data Center revenue in China grew sequentially due to shipments of export-compliant copper products to industries. As a percentage of total Data Center revenue, it remains well below levels prior to the onset of export controls. We expect the market in China to remain very competitive going forward.Colette Kress, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Q3 2025 Earnings Call).Now, India has emerged as a potential counterbalance, with CSPs like Tata Communications and Infosys scaling deployments to ~10x GPU capacity within a year. Japan is also a vital growth market. Here, Nvidia’s partnership with SoftBank to build the country’s most powerful AI supercomputer reinforces its market lead in the Asia-Pacific region. These geographic expansions obviously minimize the risk of export restrictions that may intensify more under Trump 2.0. So, Nvidia is diversifying revenue sources across regions with less regulatory friction.On the bottom-line, Nvidia’s gross margins of 75% non-GAAP reflect a stable cost structure despite rising OpEx due to Blackwell. The sequential uptick in GAAP operating expenses (+9%) is tied to higher development costs for new products (like Blackwell) pointing to reinvestment for prolonged capability. While demand for Blackwell products may temper margins slightly in the near term (low-70s), these will normalize to mid-70s with a full ramp-up. This continued top-line boom with +70% gross margins is good for the stock in terms of valuation.Nvidia’s price-to-sales (PS) ratio stands at 30, near the average of 29.8 (since the AI wave, November 2022). This PS ratio underpins Nvidia’s revenue generation capability at a premium of 1,592.74%. The normalized price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55 is near the lowest level of 46.41 (since the AI wave, November 2022) while the stock offers a 1,744.91% premium on forward earnings. This disparity between current valuation and high growth premiums suggests a potential massive upside in upcoming quarters.Data by YChartsseekingalpha.comseekingalpha.comScalability Concerns in Margin Pressures During Product TransitionsNvidia stock valuations, to some extent (based on the street sentiment), are dependent on the continued scalability of LLMs. There are three modes of LLM scaling for Nvidia—pre-training, post-training, and inference. Here, this dependence raises questions about the limits of scaling, as transitioning from 100K Hoppers to 100K Blackwells for foundation models may require rapid tech iteration with high CapEx cycles from clients again! Mag 7 (ex NVDA) is already under question for the ROI on AI investments. With a new cycle of Hopper to Blackwell replacement will create investor side concerns if the adoption of new scaling methods does not deliver proportional economic and operational benefits.Additionally, as per the company, inference demand points to a growing installed base requiring upgrades but sustaining this demand assumes a constant appetite for AI-native services across enterprises. If industry enthusiasm for AI tapers and if enterprises face internal budget issues due to increasing bottom-line pressures, Nvidia’s infrastructure sales could encounter headwinds.As Nvidia transitions from Hopper to Blackwell, gross margin pressure is a weak point. As the CFO projected, gross margins fell to the low 70s at the beginning of the Blackwell ramp, which is down from historically higher levels. The financial impact is critical. Why? First, this marks initial production inefficiencies and client onboarding for Blackwell systems. Further, mid-70s gross margins materialize in H2 2025. For the next quarters, the impact of this margin compression could be significant to dampen profitability (may result in earnings miss). The street may find it troubling as AMD (AMD) is closing the top-line growth gap and outpacing Nvidia in gross profit improvement since Q1 2024.Data by YChartsOverall, Nvidia’s “trillion dollars of data center modernization” and “AI factories” assume a continuous upward demand. However, historical patterns in hardware deployment cycles suggest inevitable digestion phases, where clients pause to optimize and absorb CapEx. Nvidia’s projections may not account for these pauses as massive ROIs are also required for AI infrastructure. As Blackwell ramps, there is also the question of how long Nvidia can go on this pace before hitting saturation in major markets. The company assumes modernization will take several years but macro and geopolitical issues (Biden-Putin-Xi-Trump) can lead to reduced budgets and shifting priorities among enterprise clients and there will be a shift toward software-based optimizations that will for sure dilute demand for Nvidia’s hardware-centric products.Company Overview IRTakeawayNvidia’s recent pullback reflects short-term concerns over margin compression, geopolitical risks, and skepticism about the sustainability of AI-driven growth. However, the company’s exceptional Q3 results, driven by record Data Center performance and accelerating adoption of Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, underscore its leadership in the AI revolution. This consolidation phase is a healthy pause, setting the stage for future growth, as Nvidia remains well-positioned to capitalize on expanding AI infrastructure demand and its strong market foothold across diverse regions. With a $204 technical price target, the long-term investment case for Nvidia remains compelling.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378258152378656,"gmtCreate":1733390961076,"gmtModify":1733390964836,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They should use Palantir&nbsp;","listText":"They should use Palantir&nbsp;","text":"They should use Palantir","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378258152378656","repostId":"2489484923","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2489484923","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1733387978,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2489484923?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-05 16:39","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Grab Holdings Chooses Amazon Web Services as Preferred Cloud Provider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2489484923","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"Grab Holdings (GRAB) has chosen Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as its preferred cloud provider, the companies said late Wednesday.Financial terms were not disclosed.The Southeast Asian delivery and financ","content":"<html><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">Grab Holdings</a> (GRAB) has chosen Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as its preferred cloud provider, the companies said late Wednesday.</p><p>Financial terms were not disclosed.</p><p>The Southeast Asian delivery and financial services app said it will use Amazon Web Services' cloud infrastructure to serve its 41.9 million monthly users across Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.</p><p>Grab said the cloud provider will help it keep operational costs down and adopt artificial intelligence technologies to provide delivery route guidance, sharpen pricing tools, personalize customer experiences, and detect possible fraud.</p></body></html>","source":"mtnewswires_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Holdings Chooses Amazon Web Services as Preferred Cloud Provider</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Holdings Chooses Amazon Web Services as Preferred Cloud Provider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-12-05 16:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">Grab Holdings</a> (GRAB) has chosen Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as its preferred cloud provider, the companies said late Wednesday.</p><p>Financial terms were not disclosed.</p><p>The Southeast Asian delivery and financial services app said it will use Amazon Web Services' cloud infrastructure to serve its 41.9 million monthly users across Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.</p><p>Grab said the cloud provider will help it keep operational costs down and adopt artificial intelligence technologies to provide delivery route guidance, sharpen pricing tools, personalize customer experiences, and detect possible fraud.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC 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INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4230":"旅客陆运","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","GRAB":"Grab Holdings","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://www.mtnewswires.com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2489484923","content_text":"Grab Holdings (GRAB) has chosen Amazon (AMZN) Web Services as its preferred cloud provider, the companies said late Wednesday.Financial terms were not disclosed.The Southeast Asian delivery and financial services app said it will use Amazon Web Services' cloud infrastructure to serve its 41.9 million monthly users across Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.Grab said the cloud provider will help it keep operational costs down and adopt artificial intelligence technologies to provide delivery route guidance, sharpen pricing tools, personalize customer experiences, and detect possible fraud.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373074369523968,"gmtCreate":1732092966201,"gmtModify":1732092970022,"author":{"id":"3582712972054494","authorId":"3582712972054494","name":"Tonykhoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582712972054494","authorIdStr":"3582712972054494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This guy has zero credibility. He shld go work in the gas station. He is full of that&nbsp;","listText":"This guy has zero credibility. He shld go work in the gas station. He is full of that&nbsp;","text":"This guy has zero credibility. He shld go work in the gas station. He is full of that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373074369523968","repostId":"1101873677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101873677","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732089900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101873677?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-20 16:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Stock in Trouble? Jefferies Predicts a 60% Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101873677","media":"Finbold","summary":"Thus far, 2024 has been the year of AI — and although stock market darling and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the most publicized winner of this new industry’s rapid rise, big dat","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Thus far, 2024 has been the year of AI — and although stock market darling and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the most publicized winner of this new industry’s rapid rise, big data analytics company Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) could secure better yearly returns.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da94adcc1677cb447048d558601090c1\" alt=\"Is Palantir stock in trouble Jefferies predicts a 60% crash\" title=\"Is Palantir stock in trouble Jefferies predicts a 60% crash\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"/><span>Is Palantir stock in trouble Jefferies predicts a 60% crash</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After all, it is currently in the lead — whereas NVDA is up 196.86% since the beginning of the year, PLTR has secured gains of 266.80% in the same timeframe. Palantir stock closed higher 2.81% at $62.98 apiece on Tuesday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2af4b774d36b96e0e4b2199ff78efc39\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"622\"/></p><p>Palantir has long been a favorite of retail investors — in contrast, institutional investors spent most of the last couple of years openly doubting the stock. After a standout Q3 2024 earnings call on November 4, that perspective has shifted — hedge funds are now purchasing large quantities of PLTR shares, while Wall Street equity analysts are setting increasingly higher price targets.</p><p>It would not be a stretch to say that an atmosphere of greed is present — and with the hype surrounding both the wider AI industry and Palantir, it’s more important than ever to take note of and heed dissenting voices. Valuation has long been one of the primary concerns surrounding the Alex Karp-led business — and the recent surge in price has done nothing to dispel those worries.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In stark contrast with most of his colleagues, one Jefferies researcher has set a price target that would correspond with a 60% decrease in PLTR share price — let’s take a closer look at his rationale.</p><h2 id=\"h-jefferies-analyst-brent-thill-sees-significant-downside-for-pltr-stock\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Jefferies analyst Brent Thill sees significant downside for PLTR stock</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On November 7, Jefferies software and internet researcher Brent Thill downgraded Palantir stock to ‘Underperform’ from his prior ‘Hold’ rating. His previous price target of $28 remains unchanged.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Shares of the AI software infrastructure company are currently trading at a 43 times multiple of its calendar 2025 revenue. As noted by Thill, the last time such conditions were seen in the tech sector was the Covid bubble. However, seeing as how macro conditions have normalized, this is no longer a common sight — Palantir’s multiple is currently over four times as large as its next comparable peer.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The expert added that although Palantir’s fundamentals ‘are alive,’ the company would have to accelerate growth to 40% for four years straight and trade at 12x estimated 2028 revenue ‘just for the stock to hold its price, which seems unlikely.’</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At present, Thill deems even current prices unsustainable — and his arguments seem to hold water. In addition, the researcher pointed out that insider selling activity has picked up — most notably, CEO Alex Karp sold $398 million worth of PLTR stock on November 13.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s not to say that he is completely bearish when it comes to the business — while he urged caution, the Jefferies analyst added that investors should wait for a better entry point — suggesting that, though he does believe in the company’s continued success, he foresees a steep correction in the short and medium term.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1686302271270","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Stock in Trouble? Jefferies Predicts a 60% Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Stock in Trouble? Jefferies Predicts a 60% Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-20 16:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finbold.com/is-palantir-stock-in-trouble-jefferies-predicts-a-60-crash/><strong>Finbold</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Thus far, 2024 has been the year of AI — and although stock market darling and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the most publicized winner of this new industry’s rapid rise, big ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finbold.com/is-palantir-stock-in-trouble-jefferies-predicts-a-60-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://finbold.com/is-palantir-stock-in-trouble-jefferies-predicts-a-60-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101873677","content_text":"Thus far, 2024 has been the year of AI — and although stock market darling and semiconductor leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been the most publicized winner of this new industry’s rapid rise, big data analytics company Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) could secure better yearly returns.Is Palantir stock in trouble Jefferies predicts a 60% crashAfter all, it is currently in the lead — whereas NVDA is up 196.86% since the beginning of the year, PLTR has secured gains of 266.80% in the same timeframe. Palantir stock closed higher 2.81% at $62.98 apiece on Tuesday.Palantir has long been a favorite of retail investors — in contrast, institutional investors spent most of the last couple of years openly doubting the stock. After a standout Q3 2024 earnings call on November 4, that perspective has shifted — hedge funds are now purchasing large quantities of PLTR shares, while Wall Street equity analysts are setting increasingly higher price targets.It would not be a stretch to say that an atmosphere of greed is present — and with the hype surrounding both the wider AI industry and Palantir, it’s more important than ever to take note of and heed dissenting voices. Valuation has long been one of the primary concerns surrounding the Alex Karp-led business — and the recent surge in price has done nothing to dispel those worries.In stark contrast with most of his colleagues, one Jefferies researcher has set a price target that would correspond with a 60% decrease in PLTR share price — let’s take a closer look at his rationale.Jefferies analyst Brent Thill sees significant downside for PLTR stockOn November 7, Jefferies software and internet researcher Brent Thill downgraded Palantir stock to ‘Underperform’ from his prior ‘Hold’ rating. His previous price target of $28 remains unchanged.Shares of the AI software infrastructure company are currently trading at a 43 times multiple of its calendar 2025 revenue. As noted by Thill, the last time such conditions were seen in the tech sector was the Covid bubble. However, seeing as how macro conditions have normalized, this is no longer a common sight — Palantir’s multiple is currently over four times as large as its next comparable peer.The expert added that although Palantir’s fundamentals ‘are alive,’ the company would have to accelerate growth to 40% for four years straight and trade at 12x estimated 2028 revenue ‘just for the stock to hold its price, which seems unlikely.’At present, Thill deems even current prices unsustainable — and his arguments seem to hold water. In addition, the researcher pointed out that insider selling activity has picked up — most notably, CEO Alex Karp sold $398 million worth of PLTR stock on November 13.That’s not to say that he is completely bearish when it comes to the business — while he urged caution, the Jefferies analyst added that investors should wait for a better entry point — suggesting that, though he does believe in the company’s continued success, he foresees a steep correction in the short and medium term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}