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2021-06-07

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Apple heads into developer conference still in correction territory: Sector Watch

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It's down 12% from the top in late January.</li><li>From a momentum point of view,it's fighting its 200-day simple moving average.</li><li>Also this week, Apple may be discussed in the ARK Investment Management's monthly webinar.</li><li>Cathie Wood's ARK team will discuss their holdings starting at 1:30 PM ET Tuesday.</li><li>ARK has almost completely divested from Apple, selling through May from its ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF).</li><li>The last sell was in May.</li><li>But Wood has talked about Apple and the self-driving car possibility on previous webinars.</li><li>Apple has lostthree execs from its self-driving program.</li><li>Seeking Alpha contributor Oleg Kombaiev argues there arestrange facts involving Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates.</li><li>Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber is concerned with valuation</li><li>\"I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company likeApple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet.\"</li></ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple heads into developer conference still in correction territory: Sector Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 10:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3703522-apple-heads-into-developer-conference-still-in-correction-territory><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)will kick off its annual Worldwide Developer Conference Monday with shares still struggling since a peak in late January.At 1 PM ET the keynote for its annual Worldwide Developer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3703522-apple-heads-into-developer-conference-still-in-correction-territory\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3703522-apple-heads-into-developer-conference-still-in-correction-territory","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149227206","content_text":"Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)will kick off its annual Worldwide Developer Conference Monday with shares still struggling since a peak in late January.At 1 PM ET the keynote for its annual Worldwide Developer Conference hits.New hardware reveals could include a new MacBook Pro release, both a 14-inch and 16-inch display driven by the M1 chip,according to Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.The stock is still in correction territory, usually defined as 10% from a high. It's down 12% from the top in late January.From a momentum point of view,it's fighting its 200-day simple moving average.Also this week, Apple may be discussed in the ARK Investment Management's monthly webinar.Cathie Wood's ARK team will discuss their holdings starting at 1:30 PM ET Tuesday.ARK has almost completely divested from Apple, selling through May from its ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF).The last sell was in May.But Wood has talked about Apple and the self-driving car possibility on previous webinars.Apple has lostthree execs from its self-driving program.Seeking Alpha contributor Oleg Kombaiev argues there arestrange facts involving Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates.Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber is concerned with valuation\"I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company likeApple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487470,"gmtCreate":1622754179090,"gmtModify":1704190407425,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582100057751905","authorIdStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81a223c9149ec3739fbc24e1fd962c8","width":"1125","height":"3037"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487470","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487265,"gmtCreate":1622754089057,"gmtModify":1704190406779,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582100057751905","authorIdStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487265","repostId":"1160565063","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160565063","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622729043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160565063?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 22:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160565063","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>TSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.</li>\n <li>It's undergoing aggressive capacity expansion plans after raising capex by over 60% and committing $100 bln over the next 3 years.</li>\n <li>The company continues to lead with a solid technological advantage as it ramps up its 5nm production followed by 4nm and 3nm scheduled for mass production next year.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c699eaada1188876056b2745946a9b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers’ products. Backed by a robust demand environment and technological leadership with advanced nodes, TSMC’s market share increased to 56% in 2020 from 53% in the previous year. The company is anticipated to register another strong year of growth as strong demand rollover providing a tailwind and the structural drivers leading to an increase in the underlying semiconductor demand for HPC, IoT, 5G and automotive fueling strong demand from the multi-year megatrends.</p>\n<p>TSMC’s leadership position revolves around its competitive strengths from the scale as the largest pure-play foundry by capacity. The company is scaling up even further by committing an aggressive expansion plan increasing capex potentially up to 63% in 2020 and $100 bln over the next three years. Furthermore, as a technology leader, the company is continuously developing more advanced process technologies to maintain its lead. Its process technology roadmap indicates that it well-positioned to solidify this lead by targeting 3nm and 4nm nodes for mass production next year followed by 2nm further down the line.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2a9da08d637f44171858f9f7587f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p>\n<p><b>Strong End Market Growth Across the Board Especially in HPC and Automotive</b></p>\n<p>TSMC’s impressive growth in 2020 was particularly strong across the HPC, IoT and smartphone end markets registering the highest growth rate among all end markets as depicted in the chart below. This is significant as these three end markets make up the largest segments by revenues with a combined contribution of 89%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23cabf4b82975da57c73ceec6d99ae4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p>\n<p>Although the smartphone platform is the largest segment, the end market which exhibited the highest growth was the HPC platform. Fueled by the work and study from home shift as well as rapid 5G deployment, HPC saw unit shipments grew by 11% which includes chips for PCs, tablets, game consoles, servers, and base stations. Looking ahead, management expects the robust demand to roll over into 2021 as structural factors spur demand for products at the leading edge including CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerated video gaming, etc. For example, the proliferation of AI and machine learning applications across a broad range of industries with continuous R&amp;D from tech giants spurring demand for accelerators to handle inferencing and training workloads leading to a&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;of 42.2% to 2027 for the AI market. Additionally, the ongoing cloud migration by enterprises and scaling of data centers by leading cloud service provider fueling the cloud computing market with a&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;of 17.5%. Other drivers include 5G deployment as well as next-generation gaming all requiring higher performance and power-efficient chips. All of these factors support the long-term growth of the HPC platform which TSMC&nbsp;believes&nbsp;can overtake the smartphone platform to become the most significant end market in the future.</p>\n<p>Besides HPC, the ongoing automotive chip shortage is another platform in which the company expects stronger growth this year. In 2020, the segment contracted in line with the decline in global vehicle sales by 14% as consumer confidence weakened and auto manufacturers halted production. As production resumes with car sales expected to rebound in the low teens, we expect the segment to grow in line with the industry recovery. Additionally, rising semiconductor content driven by EV which could see&nbsp;nearly10 times greater content per vehicle than a conventional combustion vehicle and ADAS fueling demand for sensors, analog and power ICs is a structural driver for TSMC.</p>\n<p>Additionally, even more impressive about TSMC’s 2020 growth is the fact that the company lost a key contribution from the embargoed Huawei’s HiSilicon (12.8% of revenues) but still managed to register strong smartphone platform growth. Despite the modest global unit shipments decline of 9%, the growth in the platform is driven by 5G adoption, improved performance, longer battery life and increasing complexity of features such as biosensors and more AI features. These long-term factors support the company’s outlook for high single-digit growth in 2021 and beyond.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45123609324056b25e0de8e36bf86f46\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source:Toms Hardware, The Information Network</span></p>\n<p><b>Aggressive Capacity Expansion Plans and Investments</b></p>\n<p>In terms of capacity expansion, TSMC has upped its game in 2021 by increasing its capex by potentially 63% more than last year to $28 bln. The company has announced that around 80% of the budgeted capex will be allocated to expand capacity for the advanced process technologies below 7nm with the remainder for advanced packaging and specialty technologies. Additionally, it is also committing $100 bln over the next 3 years to increase capacity and support R&amp;D towards advanced processes.</p>\n<p>Previously, TSMC also&nbsp;announced&nbsp;its plan to expand in the US with a $12 bln fab in Arizona capable of producing 5nm chips. The 12-inch fab in Phoenix is relatively modest with a planned output of 20,000 with volume production only expected in 2024. Though, it has also been reported that TSMC might further increase the capacity and equipment capabilities which is a strong possibility with the robust demand environment and the company has also indicated that the location allows it to expand capacity if desired.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326c261509a8f27ac5d2dfd0cd823458\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"618\"><span>Source:EENewsEurope,Techspot</span></p>\n<p>In comparison with other larger spenders Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)and Samsung, TSMC’s planned investment commitment of $100 bln for foundry expansion is the most significant. In March, Intel announced it's planned a $20 bln initialinvestmentin Arizona for the construction of two fabs to directly compete with TSMC but a lot more is needed to stand a chance at challenging TSMC’s dominance. On the other hand, Samsung’s plannedinvestmentsof $116 bln are larger but spread across a longer period of 10 years compared to just 3 for TSMC.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody></tbody>\n</table>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a96afbf56db7d1f4ecaf334f01866dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source:Bloomberg</span></p>\n<p><b>TSMC’s Superior Process Technology and Roadmap</b></p>\n<p>Backed by its strong investment commitment, TSMC is able to reap the benefits from its strength as a technological leader in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking the size of transistors is becoming more challenging with prohibitive costs but a key feature for increasing chip density allowing continued performance improvements and energy efficiency. Chips at the leading edge nodes (below 10nm) are critical to achieve this and its share of demand would only grow larger to support advanced technologies accounting for nearly one third of capacity in 3 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e784ad457fc66c73ca376c7af1981e\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"427\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p>\n<p>This is where TSMC shines with its leadership owing to its focus on continuously developing more advanced process technologies. While the company only accounts for 40% to 65% of revenues for the less sophisticated 28-65nm chips, it dominates the market for most advanced nodes with making up 90% of chips below 10nm. We expect it to maintain its leadership at the advanced nodes as other pureplay competitors struggle with developing their processes.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab154a4af28b364c0c3dc9e281683ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\"><span>Source:Financial Times</span></p>\n<p>In terms of the TSMC’s technology roadmap, the company’s 5nm process is already in the second year of volume production and continues to be ramped up with strong demand from smartphone and HPC applications. Following 5nm, the company is moving to 4nm and targeting volume production by next year. Also, the company has scheduled the 3nm for volume production in the second half of 2022. Based on a FinFET transistor structure, it is believed that its 3nm can provide 70% logic density gain, boosting performance up to 15% and cutting power consumption by 30%. The transistor size in a 3nm node is just 1/20,000th of a human hair. At the same time, the company is developing its GAAFET-based 2nm node with production expected in its Taiwanese fabs across Hsinchu and Baoshan.</p>\n<p>Compared to leading competitors, Samsung’s roadmap is also quite similar to TSMC as it plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022 with 2nm possibly also indevelopmentwith IBM(NYSE:IBM)but produced by Samsung. More recently, TSMC has announced a breakthrough in thedevelopmentof 1nm. Whereas for Intel, its Arizona fab is only indicated to produce 7nm technologies but only when it is completed in 2024.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cce4edae659b7c5424284f348286586\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p>\n<p>Overall, TSMC’s investment plans allow it to derive a distinct advantage owing to its focus on advanced nodes despite the hefty costs. Among pure-play foundries, the company has the highest return on capital employed at 27.3% versus the industry average of 13.8%.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Company</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Return on Capital Employed</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>TSMC</p></td>\n   <td><p>27.3%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>UMC</p></td>\n   <td><p>11.1%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>SMICOTCQX:SMICY</p></td>\n   <td><p>3.1%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>Source:WSJ</i></p>\n<p>Moreover, TSMC also benefits from favourable pricing with a rising wafer pricing trend in line with its advanced node migration. As the only pure-play foundry with 7nm and 5nm in 2020, its wafer pricing increased by 6.8% while other pureplay foundries had flattish wafer pricing trends. As TSMC transitions to more advanced nodes, pricing is expected to trend upwards while its competitors’ prices remain relatively flat but couldriseby up around 20% this year due to tight capacity.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72237f327bae332b07dc3bbd226641a\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"326\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p>\n<p>Besides advanced nodes, the company’s advantage due to its scale is apparent as evident from its superior profitability compared to rivals. Its gross margins of 53.21% and net margins of 38.86% triumphs UMC and SMIC. However, data for Global Foundries could not be obtained as it is a private company.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Company</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Revenues ($ bln)</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Net Margins</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>TSMC</p></td>\n   <td><p>$47.95</p></td>\n   <td><p>53.21%</p></td>\n   <td><p>38.86%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>UMC</p></td>\n   <td><p>$6.3</p></td>\n   <td><p>23.88%</p></td>\n   <td><p>20.59%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>SMIC</p></td>\n   <td><p>$3.91</p></td>\n   <td><p>22.83%</p></td>\n   <td><p>17.87%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>Source: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Macrotrends</i></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Due to the robust foundry market, TSMC’s revenue grew 33% in 2020 with a 5-year average growth rate of 13.7%. Its average gross margins and net margins are 49.7% and 35% respectively.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb481e40dd284b4be697764012599660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p>\n<p>The company has a strong cash flow generation profile with a 5-year average of 21%. However, due to the significant rise in guided capex from 2021 onwards, the company’s margins are expected to dip but recover as it expands aggressively.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef99c8c626d03cd5796d38088510e291\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p>\n<p>Owing to its immense scale and technology leadership, the company has managed to solidify its leadership by growing its market share over the past 5 years to 56% in 2020. As the company scales up capacity and advanced nodes 5nm this year, we anticipate further market share gains even beyond 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58cebb1fc453c5861aac81712d01607\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p>\n<p>The global foundry market is expected to grow at a 11%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;according to estimates from TrendForce. We expect TSMC to outpace this growth rate by gaining market share due to its scale and technological advantages as highlighted above. Overall, we see TSMC growing nearly 15% through 2023 which is in line with management guidance of 10 to 15% CAGR long term.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>TSMC Revenue Projection</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>2020</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>2021F</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>2022F</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>2023F</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Foundry Market</p></td>\n   <td><p>78,921</p></td>\n   <td><p>87,602</p></td>\n   <td><p>97,239</p></td>\n   <td><p>107,935</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>TSMC Foundry Revenues</p></td>\n   <td><p>44,205</p></td>\n   <td><p>50,809</p></td>\n   <td><p>58,343</p></td>\n   <td><p>66,920</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>TSMC Growth %</p></td>\n   <td><p>14.9%</p></td>\n   <td><p>14.8%</p></td>\n   <td><p>14.7%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>Source: Statista, TrendForce, Khaveen Investments</i></p>\n<p>The industry average EV/EBITDA of the pure-play foundry market is 10.53x excluding Samsung which is a tech conglomerate.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Company</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>TSMC</p></td>\n   <td><p>15.64</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>UMC</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.89</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>SMIC</p></td>\n   <td><p>7.07</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Average</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>10.53</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>Based on a discount rate of 7.3% (company’s WACC), our model shows an upside of 15.2%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cec106cd5858b583064db2d09cd133b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p>\n<p><b>Verdict</b></p>\n<p>Despite all the plans by Samsung and Intel, TSMC remains too big to beat as a pure-play foundry leader with growing market share owing to its superior technology process and scale. In 2020, the company saw robust growth across most end market platforms despite the trade embargo on Huawei. Robust demand is expected to roll over into 2021 across all major end markets especially fueled by the resumption of auto production and structural trend of HPC and 5G. To capitalize on the multi-year megatrends, the company has not only stepped up its capex budget for the year potentially up 63% but also a long-term 3-year $100 bln investment commitment to expand capacity for the advanced nodes. This highlights its commitment towards implementing its roadmap for the node migration towards 4nm and 3nm next year followed by 2nm further into the future. These factors cumulatively solidify its market leadership which could lead to further market share gains. Overall, we rate the company as a<i>Buy</i>with a target price of<i>$126.32.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 22:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432785-tsmc-expanding-foundry-market-leadership><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.\nIt's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432785-tsmc-expanding-foundry-market-leadership\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432785-tsmc-expanding-foundry-market-leadership","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160565063","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.\nIt's undergoing aggressive capacity expansion plans after raising capex by over 60% and committing $100 bln over the next 3 years.\nThe company continues to lead with a solid technological advantage as it ramps up its 5nm production followed by 4nm and 3nm scheduled for mass production next year.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers’ products. Backed by a robust demand environment and technological leadership with advanced nodes, TSMC’s market share increased to 56% in 2020 from 53% in the previous year. The company is anticipated to register another strong year of growth as strong demand rollover providing a tailwind and the structural drivers leading to an increase in the underlying semiconductor demand for HPC, IoT, 5G and automotive fueling strong demand from the multi-year megatrends.\nTSMC’s leadership position revolves around its competitive strengths from the scale as the largest pure-play foundry by capacity. The company is scaling up even further by committing an aggressive expansion plan increasing capex potentially up to 63% in 2020 and $100 bln over the next three years. Furthermore, as a technology leader, the company is continuously developing more advanced process technologies to maintain its lead. Its process technology roadmap indicates that it well-positioned to solidify this lead by targeting 3nm and 4nm nodes for mass production next year followed by 2nm further down the line.\nSource: TSMC\nStrong End Market Growth Across the Board Especially in HPC and Automotive\nTSMC’s impressive growth in 2020 was particularly strong across the HPC, IoT and smartphone end markets registering the highest growth rate among all end markets as depicted in the chart below. This is significant as these three end markets make up the largest segments by revenues with a combined contribution of 89%.\nSource: TSMC\nAlthough the smartphone platform is the largest segment, the end market which exhibited the highest growth was the HPC platform. Fueled by the work and study from home shift as well as rapid 5G deployment, HPC saw unit shipments grew by 11% which includes chips for PCs, tablets, game consoles, servers, and base stations. Looking ahead, management expects the robust demand to roll over into 2021 as structural factors spur demand for products at the leading edge including CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerated video gaming, etc. For example, the proliferation of AI and machine learning applications across a broad range of industries with continuous R&D from tech giants spurring demand for accelerators to handle inferencing and training workloads leading to a CAGR of 42.2% to 2027 for the AI market. Additionally, the ongoing cloud migration by enterprises and scaling of data centers by leading cloud service provider fueling the cloud computing market with a CAGR of 17.5%. Other drivers include 5G deployment as well as next-generation gaming all requiring higher performance and power-efficient chips. All of these factors support the long-term growth of the HPC platform which TSMC believes can overtake the smartphone platform to become the most significant end market in the future.\nBesides HPC, the ongoing automotive chip shortage is another platform in which the company expects stronger growth this year. In 2020, the segment contracted in line with the decline in global vehicle sales by 14% as consumer confidence weakened and auto manufacturers halted production. As production resumes with car sales expected to rebound in the low teens, we expect the segment to grow in line with the industry recovery. Additionally, rising semiconductor content driven by EV which could see nearly10 times greater content per vehicle than a conventional combustion vehicle and ADAS fueling demand for sensors, analog and power ICs is a structural driver for TSMC.\nAdditionally, even more impressive about TSMC’s 2020 growth is the fact that the company lost a key contribution from the embargoed Huawei’s HiSilicon (12.8% of revenues) but still managed to register strong smartphone platform growth. Despite the modest global unit shipments decline of 9%, the growth in the platform is driven by 5G adoption, improved performance, longer battery life and increasing complexity of features such as biosensors and more AI features. These long-term factors support the company’s outlook for high single-digit growth in 2021 and beyond.\nSource:Toms Hardware, The Information Network\nAggressive Capacity Expansion Plans and Investments\nIn terms of capacity expansion, TSMC has upped its game in 2021 by increasing its capex by potentially 63% more than last year to $28 bln. The company has announced that around 80% of the budgeted capex will be allocated to expand capacity for the advanced process technologies below 7nm with the remainder for advanced packaging and specialty technologies. Additionally, it is also committing $100 bln over the next 3 years to increase capacity and support R&D towards advanced processes.\nPreviously, TSMC also announced its plan to expand in the US with a $12 bln fab in Arizona capable of producing 5nm chips. The 12-inch fab in Phoenix is relatively modest with a planned output of 20,000 with volume production only expected in 2024. Though, it has also been reported that TSMC might further increase the capacity and equipment capabilities which is a strong possibility with the robust demand environment and the company has also indicated that the location allows it to expand capacity if desired.\nSource:EENewsEurope,Techspot\nIn comparison with other larger spenders Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)and Samsung, TSMC’s planned investment commitment of $100 bln for foundry expansion is the most significant. In March, Intel announced it's planned a $20 bln initialinvestmentin Arizona for the construction of two fabs to directly compete with TSMC but a lot more is needed to stand a chance at challenging TSMC’s dominance. On the other hand, Samsung’s plannedinvestmentsof $116 bln are larger but spread across a longer period of 10 years compared to just 3 for TSMC.\n\n\n\nSource:Bloomberg\nTSMC’s Superior Process Technology and Roadmap\nBacked by its strong investment commitment, TSMC is able to reap the benefits from its strength as a technological leader in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking the size of transistors is becoming more challenging with prohibitive costs but a key feature for increasing chip density allowing continued performance improvements and energy efficiency. Chips at the leading edge nodes (below 10nm) are critical to achieve this and its share of demand would only grow larger to support advanced technologies accounting for nearly one third of capacity in 3 years.\nSource:IC Insights\nThis is where TSMC shines with its leadership owing to its focus on continuously developing more advanced process technologies. While the company only accounts for 40% to 65% of revenues for the less sophisticated 28-65nm chips, it dominates the market for most advanced nodes with making up 90% of chips below 10nm. We expect it to maintain its leadership at the advanced nodes as other pureplay competitors struggle with developing their processes.\nSource:Financial Times\nIn terms of the TSMC’s technology roadmap, the company’s 5nm process is already in the second year of volume production and continues to be ramped up with strong demand from smartphone and HPC applications. Following 5nm, the company is moving to 4nm and targeting volume production by next year. Also, the company has scheduled the 3nm for volume production in the second half of 2022. Based on a FinFET transistor structure, it is believed that its 3nm can provide 70% logic density gain, boosting performance up to 15% and cutting power consumption by 30%. The transistor size in a 3nm node is just 1/20,000th of a human hair. At the same time, the company is developing its GAAFET-based 2nm node with production expected in its Taiwanese fabs across Hsinchu and Baoshan.\nCompared to leading competitors, Samsung’s roadmap is also quite similar to TSMC as it plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022 with 2nm possibly also indevelopmentwith IBM(NYSE:IBM)but produced by Samsung. More recently, TSMC has announced a breakthrough in thedevelopmentof 1nm. Whereas for Intel, its Arizona fab is only indicated to produce 7nm technologies but only when it is completed in 2024.\nSource:IC Insights\nOverall, TSMC’s investment plans allow it to derive a distinct advantage owing to its focus on advanced nodes despite the hefty costs. Among pure-play foundries, the company has the highest return on capital employed at 27.3% versus the industry average of 13.8%.\n\n\n\nCompany\nReturn on Capital Employed\n\n\nTSMC\n27.3%\n\n\nUMC\n11.1%\n\n\nSMICOTCQX:SMICY\n3.1%\n\n\n\nSource:WSJ\nMoreover, TSMC also benefits from favourable pricing with a rising wafer pricing trend in line with its advanced node migration. As the only pure-play foundry with 7nm and 5nm in 2020, its wafer pricing increased by 6.8% while other pureplay foundries had flattish wafer pricing trends. As TSMC transitions to more advanced nodes, pricing is expected to trend upwards while its competitors’ prices remain relatively flat but couldriseby up around 20% this year due to tight capacity.\nSource:IC Insights\nBesides advanced nodes, the company’s advantage due to its scale is apparent as evident from its superior profitability compared to rivals. Its gross margins of 53.21% and net margins of 38.86% triumphs UMC and SMIC. However, data for Global Foundries could not be obtained as it is a private company.\n\n\n\nCompany\nRevenues ($ bln)\nGross Margins\nNet Margins\n\n\nTSMC\n$47.95\n53.21%\n38.86%\n\n\nUMC\n$6.3\n23.88%\n20.59%\n\n\nSMIC\n$3.91\n22.83%\n17.87%\n\n\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Macrotrends\nValuation\nDue to the robust foundry market, TSMC’s revenue grew 33% in 2020 with a 5-year average growth rate of 13.7%. Its average gross margins and net margins are 49.7% and 35% respectively.\nSource: TSMC, Khaveen Investments\nThe company has a strong cash flow generation profile with a 5-year average of 21%. However, due to the significant rise in guided capex from 2021 onwards, the company’s margins are expected to dip but recover as it expands aggressively.\nSource: TSMC, Khaveen Investments\nOwing to its immense scale and technology leadership, the company has managed to solidify its leadership by growing its market share over the past 5 years to 56% in 2020. As the company scales up capacity and advanced nodes 5nm this year, we anticipate further market share gains even beyond 2021.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe global foundry market is expected to grow at a 11% CAGR according to estimates from TrendForce. We expect TSMC to outpace this growth rate by gaining market share due to its scale and technological advantages as highlighted above. Overall, we see TSMC growing nearly 15% through 2023 which is in line with management guidance of 10 to 15% CAGR long term.\n\n\n\nTSMC Revenue Projection\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nFoundry Market\n78,921\n87,602\n97,239\n107,935\n\n\nTSMC Foundry Revenues\n44,205\n50,809\n58,343\n66,920\n\n\nTSMC Growth %\n14.9%\n14.8%\n14.7%\n\n\n\nSource: Statista, TrendForce, Khaveen Investments\nThe industry average EV/EBITDA of the pure-play foundry market is 10.53x excluding Samsung which is a tech conglomerate.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nTSMC\n15.64\n\n\nUMC\n8.89\n\n\nSMIC\n7.07\n\n\nAverage\n10.53\n\n\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nBased on a discount rate of 7.3% (company’s WACC), our model shows an upside of 15.2%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nDespite all the plans by Samsung and Intel, TSMC remains too big to beat as a pure-play foundry leader with growing market share owing to its superior technology process and scale. In 2020, the company saw robust growth across most end market platforms despite the trade embargo on Huawei. Robust demand is expected to roll over into 2021 across all major end markets especially fueled by the resumption of auto production and structural trend of HPC and 5G. To capitalize on the multi-year megatrends, the company has not only stepped up its capex budget for the year potentially up 63% but also a long-term 3-year $100 bln investment commitment to expand capacity for the advanced nodes. This highlights its commitment towards implementing its roadmap for the node migration towards 4nm and 3nm next year followed by 2nm further into the future. These factors cumulatively solidify its market leadership which could lead to further market share gains. Overall, we rate the company as aBuywith a target price of$126.32.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487157,"gmtCreate":1622754008879,"gmtModify":1704190406293,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582100057751905","authorIdStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487157","repostId":"1152573638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152573638","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622732138,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152573638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Only 2 Numbers That Matter To Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152573638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAs long as there's zero dividend, Tesla investors are betting on one of two things: Very hi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>As long as there's zero dividend, Tesla investors are betting on one of two things: Very high book value growth, or continued Price/Book multiple expansion.</li>\n <li>Shareholders assuming Tesla's Price/Book multiple deflates from around 25 to 5 over the next 10 years need book value per share to grow 5x just to break even.</li>\n <li>So far, Tesla's growth in book value is mostly from \"Additional Paid-In Capital\" (issuing new shares at high prices), rather than retained earnings.</li>\n <li>Long-term earnings estimates imply book value per share sums up to 150-250 by the end of 2030, meaning a breakeven Price/Book of 2.5-4x, which is well above most mature autos.</li>\n <li>I present a 1x2 put spread as an attractive trade both for long investors concerned about overvaluation, as well as those seeking to bet on a Price/Book multiple contraction.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c329e23b2762c47b11d11d95ec584959\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Jag_cz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Book value per share is likely not the first metric that comes to mind when you think of a \"growth company of the future\" like Tesla (TSLA), but in this article, I will explain why book value per share is the most important bottom line number long-term investors in this company should watch. As long as zero dividends are expected, a TSLA shareholder's total return will, by definition, be defined by the growth of Tesla's book value per share crossed against the change in the Price/Book (P/B) multiple of those shares. After looking at some numbers underlying TSLA's book value per share, and how much it will have to grow for current TSLA shareholders to make money, I conclude with three actionable option strategies based on expectations for how these numbers may change in the medium term. This article also can be seen as a follow up to the&nbsp;2041 breakeven projection of Tesla I published last year.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla Share Price Rise Follows Book Value</b></p>\n<p>The first chart here shows how the rise in Tesla's share price has moved remarkably in line with TSLA's growth in book value per share. TSLA has so far never paid a dividend.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1f994d62f1ec67c3b95ae15c3791fa8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"458\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Multiple Expansion and Contraction</b></p>\n<p>The above chart, which is on a log scale, is far smoother than that of the (P/B) ratio between these two numbers. The multiple seemed to have stabilized between 2017 and late 2019, but its rise from below 7 in mid-2019 to over 40 in late 2020 and back to around 26 today explains much of TSLA's recent surge and volatility. Another way of thinking about it: TSLA's book value per share is up roughly 4-fold in the past two years, and its P/B is up about 4-fold over the past two years, which together explain why TSLA's shares are up about 16-fold over the past two years. The big question for investors at these levels is: What future combination of book value growth and P/B expansion or contraction can be expected to produce a satisfactory rate of return?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb71b806f59aaabd5d09a6eb4b1606\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"425\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Understanding Tesla's Book Value Growth</b></p>\n<p>Although the title of my Marketplace service<i>Long Run Income</i>implies a preference for dividends, we believe high-quality book value growth is the best kind of \"dividend alternative\" for companies who can reinvest cash profits internally at far higher rates of return than I can externally. I would challenge any investor to explain why else to buy a low-dividend or no-dividend stock except for the expectation of higher returns from book value growth. For that reason, I have come to focus my analysis of growth companies on how well they seem able to grow book value per share.</p>\n<p>I break down Tesla's book value trajectory into two main parts: Retained Earnings, and Additional Paid In Capital. Although Tesla seems to have \"rounded the J-curve\" of profitability, having reported&nbsp;7 consecutive quarters of positive earnings since September 2019, accumulated profits still fall short of accumulated losses by over $4 billion.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08701c599a8c6fa7a66efde3c0a12cac\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"425\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The other \"half\" (actually over 100%) of Tesla's book value comes from the money paid in by investors. TSLA has continuously raised capital over the past several years by issuing new shares, and the higher the valuation multiple at which TSLA can issue new shares, the more it can accumulate in Additional Paid In Capital. These share issuances also raise the number of shares outstanding, which has the dual effect of raising Tesla's overall market value (since the price per share is now multiplied by more shares), and diluting each share's per-share book value. This increase in book value per share and decline in Price/Book in every recent new share issuance effectively reflects a \"profit\" earlier shareholders enjoy for having later investors pay a higher valuation to get into the company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971bf86f3d08fe938af2845121be8d4c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Putting these above two charts together, we see that so far Tesla has \"made\" over $27 billion selling shares of its stock to investors, vs. losing over $4 billion in trying to sell cars and batteries to customers, and of course the latter eventually needs to overtake the former for investors to start making their money back.</p>\n<p><b>How Tesla's Earnings Projections Add Up</b></p>\n<p>If we assume that Tesla stops issuing new shares (a big assumption, but necessary to keep the math simple), then we can add up projected earnings per share to the book value per share to accumulate a projection of future book value per share. Projections of Tesla's future earnings deserve their own article or research report, so for the purposes of this update, I'll use the low vs high analyst forecasts on Tesla'sSeeking Alphaearnings page:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36166f6653fb8e11941e3c58b313ccb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha Earnings Page For TSLA</span></p>\n<p>Note that between 2025 and 2025, the low and median EPS estimates jump as the number of analysts covering the stock that far out falls from 11 to two, implying that the two analysts projecting TSLA's earnings out to 2030 are on the more optimistic end of the street. If we add up the low and high EPS estimates to today's starting book value per share of $23.90, we get a forecast of TSLA's book value of between $160 and $235 per share for the end of 2030. From today's price of around $623.90 per share, that means if TSLA's book value grows to around $200 (the middle of that optimistic range), then a contraction in TSLA's P/B from today's level of 26 to a still \"high for hardware\" multiple of 3 would mean shareholders would earn a 0% return between now and 2030. In other words, someone buying TSLA today would have to believe that either:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Tesla will grow its earnings and book value even faster than the most optimistic analyst estimates, or</li>\n <li>That investors will continue paying P/B multiples well above 3 for the stock.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>On forecasting what TSLA's P/B might be by 2030, there are three ways I can see expecting a multiple of 3 or higher:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><i>Another valuation bubble</i>: The P/B of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), charted below, reached highs around 3 in Japan's late 1980s bubble, and again in the late 1990s \"echo bubble,\" and that was its high. If TSLA becomes like TM by 2030, this sort of broader stock valuation bubble may be needed to provide an attractive return on the exit price.</li>\n <li><i>Business transformation</i>: The biggest TSLA bulls I speak to are those who believe TSLA may either remain a premium hardware maker with services on top like Apple Inc. (AAPL), or as a more asset-light, high return software platform like Microsoft (MSFT), whose P/B ratios are charted below Toyota's.</li>\n <li><i>Financial engineering</i>: One other driver of Apple's&nbsp;P/B expansion is buybacks, as I explained in this example with McDonald's. Buybacks at high P/B multiples reduce book value per share and raise the P/B multiple, all else equal, in ways exactly opposite to how Tesla has been only issuing (not buying back) shares so far.</li>\n</ol>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59e353b1112fb465bf275bfd2e2f5c38\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"425\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7432d2c24afe124c70d139e0320f2d0c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Another way of comparing Tesla's $36 billion in annual sales vs. Toyota's $257 billion is on a revenue per capital basis. In other words, Tesla currently grosses around $5/year per person on the planet, vs. Toyota's roughly $37/year per human on earth. The growth question for 2030 is whether Tesla can still reach Toyota's number, especially given that:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Demand for transportation, in terms of global population times the percentage of the global population that can afford a car, is likely to grow at a slower pace than historically, especially after 2030, and</li>\n <li>Self-driving cars that aren't owned by one person, and so don't need to be parked idle most of the time, might actually decrease demand for new cars.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Without continued high growth past 2030, even 3x book might be on the high end for a car or battery company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6900c059b599cc5885a2184ad6db05\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"537\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Trading a TSLA P/B Contraction</b></p>\n<p>My favorite actionable strategies on a stock like TSLA, which I don't expect to fundamentally collapse, but do expect to experience a significant multiple contraction, generally involve some form of option put spread. The option strategy described below works both for bears wanting to profit from an outright 20%-30% decline, or long-term bulls wanting to protect their shares' value against such a decline.</p>\n<p>One challenge with simply buying put spreads on TSLA is that its option prices imply a significant \"positive skew,\" which makes put spreads relatively expensive to call spreads. In other words, the market is implying an expectation that TSLA shares are more likely than not to fall a little, offset by a smaller chance of a much larger upside move. Most of the near-the-money put spreads on TSLA cost more than 50% of the maximum payoff, even with longer-dated options or lower strike prices.</p>\n<p>For the time horizon, I'm choosing the June 17, 2022, expiry date, which as of this writing is a little more than one year out. The main reasons I find first the expiry after one year to be a \"sweet spot\" for this type of strategy include:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>As opposed to outright short selling, buying a put spread to profit from a decline in a share price may qualify for long-term capital gains tax treatment, as we would be holding a long position in a put spread longer than one year.</li>\n <li>As opposed to even longer-dated options (say the two-year options expiring June 2023), rolling one-year options forces us to reevaluate our valuation and strike prices and decide if and in what form to roll the strategy after four more quarterly book value updates.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In this strategy, we buy 1x 650 strike put around 150 and then sell 2x 500 puts around 75 each, for roughly zero net up-front premium. Payoff scenarios based on TSLA's closing price at expiry include:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d415689c4d898bc75eba42b9f79152\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"452\"><span>Source: My Own Excel Calculation and Chart</span></p>\n<p>The maximum payout ($150/share) divided by the maximum loss ($350/share) presents a \"maximum rate of return\" on this strategy is +42.8%, though getting that exact maximum payout is nearly impossible (as it requires TSLA to close at exactly $500/share on the expiry date). More likely, this option strategy would deliver a rate of return of more than 14.2% on the maximum loss if TSLA closes between 400-600 at expiry. If we follow the earlier earnings estimates and project TSLA's book value per share to be around $30/share by then, that means we expect a contract in P/B to between 13-20 by next summer.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>For high-growth, non-dividend paying stocks like Tesla, return expectations break down into expectations of book value growth times expectation of P/B multiple expansion or contraction. Now that it's \"rounded the J-curve\" of profitability and reached a respectable level of sales, I believe Tesla is less likely to be the next&nbsp;DeLorean Motor Company, and at best like Microsoft in 2000. To summarize an example I often reference in<i>Long Run Income</i>, from 2000 to 2010, Microsoft's business continued to grow, but investors who bought at the beginning of 2000 were still down over 36% 10 years later because Microsoft's P/B multiple declined by that much more than the business grew. Here is one chart showing that \"lost decade\" for MSFT shareholders.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faaf554d7a7744d36d27ea7f92e9a9e2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>For investors who want to hedge a decline in TSLA shares from here to $500, or those who believe TSLA may be a good company that is just wildly overvalued at these levels and may be worth buying below $500, the 1x2 put spread strategy described above may be worth considering.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Only 2 Numbers That Matter To Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Only 2 Numbers That Matter To Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 22:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432862-tesla-the-only-2-numbers-that-matter-to-investors><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAs long as there's zero dividend, Tesla investors are betting on one of two things: Very high book value growth, or continued Price/Book multiple expansion.\nShareholders assuming Tesla's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432862-tesla-the-only-2-numbers-that-matter-to-investors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432862-tesla-the-only-2-numbers-that-matter-to-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152573638","content_text":"Summary\n\nAs long as there's zero dividend, Tesla investors are betting on one of two things: Very high book value growth, or continued Price/Book multiple expansion.\nShareholders assuming Tesla's Price/Book multiple deflates from around 25 to 5 over the next 10 years need book value per share to grow 5x just to break even.\nSo far, Tesla's growth in book value is mostly from \"Additional Paid-In Capital\" (issuing new shares at high prices), rather than retained earnings.\nLong-term earnings estimates imply book value per share sums up to 150-250 by the end of 2030, meaning a breakeven Price/Book of 2.5-4x, which is well above most mature autos.\nI present a 1x2 put spread as an attractive trade both for long investors concerned about overvaluation, as well as those seeking to bet on a Price/Book multiple contraction.\n\nPhoto by Jag_cz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBook value per share is likely not the first metric that comes to mind when you think of a \"growth company of the future\" like Tesla (TSLA), but in this article, I will explain why book value per share is the most important bottom line number long-term investors in this company should watch. As long as zero dividends are expected, a TSLA shareholder's total return will, by definition, be defined by the growth of Tesla's book value per share crossed against the change in the Price/Book (P/B) multiple of those shares. After looking at some numbers underlying TSLA's book value per share, and how much it will have to grow for current TSLA shareholders to make money, I conclude with three actionable option strategies based on expectations for how these numbers may change in the medium term. This article also can be seen as a follow up to the 2041 breakeven projection of Tesla I published last year.\nTesla Share Price Rise Follows Book Value\nThe first chart here shows how the rise in Tesla's share price has moved remarkably in line with TSLA's growth in book value per share. TSLA has so far never paid a dividend.\nData by YCharts\nMultiple Expansion and Contraction\nThe above chart, which is on a log scale, is far smoother than that of the (P/B) ratio between these two numbers. The multiple seemed to have stabilized between 2017 and late 2019, but its rise from below 7 in mid-2019 to over 40 in late 2020 and back to around 26 today explains much of TSLA's recent surge and volatility. Another way of thinking about it: TSLA's book value per share is up roughly 4-fold in the past two years, and its P/B is up about 4-fold over the past two years, which together explain why TSLA's shares are up about 16-fold over the past two years. The big question for investors at these levels is: What future combination of book value growth and P/B expansion or contraction can be expected to produce a satisfactory rate of return?\nData by YCharts\nUnderstanding Tesla's Book Value Growth\nAlthough the title of my Marketplace serviceLong Run Incomeimplies a preference for dividends, we believe high-quality book value growth is the best kind of \"dividend alternative\" for companies who can reinvest cash profits internally at far higher rates of return than I can externally. I would challenge any investor to explain why else to buy a low-dividend or no-dividend stock except for the expectation of higher returns from book value growth. For that reason, I have come to focus my analysis of growth companies on how well they seem able to grow book value per share.\nI break down Tesla's book value trajectory into two main parts: Retained Earnings, and Additional Paid In Capital. Although Tesla seems to have \"rounded the J-curve\" of profitability, having reported 7 consecutive quarters of positive earnings since September 2019, accumulated profits still fall short of accumulated losses by over $4 billion.\nData by YCharts\nThe other \"half\" (actually over 100%) of Tesla's book value comes from the money paid in by investors. TSLA has continuously raised capital over the past several years by issuing new shares, and the higher the valuation multiple at which TSLA can issue new shares, the more it can accumulate in Additional Paid In Capital. These share issuances also raise the number of shares outstanding, which has the dual effect of raising Tesla's overall market value (since the price per share is now multiplied by more shares), and diluting each share's per-share book value. This increase in book value per share and decline in Price/Book in every recent new share issuance effectively reflects a \"profit\" earlier shareholders enjoy for having later investors pay a higher valuation to get into the company.\nData by YCharts\nPutting these above two charts together, we see that so far Tesla has \"made\" over $27 billion selling shares of its stock to investors, vs. losing over $4 billion in trying to sell cars and batteries to customers, and of course the latter eventually needs to overtake the former for investors to start making their money back.\nHow Tesla's Earnings Projections Add Up\nIf we assume that Tesla stops issuing new shares (a big assumption, but necessary to keep the math simple), then we can add up projected earnings per share to the book value per share to accumulate a projection of future book value per share. Projections of Tesla's future earnings deserve their own article or research report, so for the purposes of this update, I'll use the low vs high analyst forecasts on Tesla'sSeeking Alphaearnings page:\nSource:SeekingAlpha Earnings Page For TSLA\nNote that between 2025 and 2025, the low and median EPS estimates jump as the number of analysts covering the stock that far out falls from 11 to two, implying that the two analysts projecting TSLA's earnings out to 2030 are on the more optimistic end of the street. If we add up the low and high EPS estimates to today's starting book value per share of $23.90, we get a forecast of TSLA's book value of between $160 and $235 per share for the end of 2030. From today's price of around $623.90 per share, that means if TSLA's book value grows to around $200 (the middle of that optimistic range), then a contraction in TSLA's P/B from today's level of 26 to a still \"high for hardware\" multiple of 3 would mean shareholders would earn a 0% return between now and 2030. In other words, someone buying TSLA today would have to believe that either:\n\nTesla will grow its earnings and book value even faster than the most optimistic analyst estimates, or\nThat investors will continue paying P/B multiples well above 3 for the stock.\n\nOn forecasting what TSLA's P/B might be by 2030, there are three ways I can see expecting a multiple of 3 or higher:\n\nAnother valuation bubble: The P/B of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), charted below, reached highs around 3 in Japan's late 1980s bubble, and again in the late 1990s \"echo bubble,\" and that was its high. If TSLA becomes like TM by 2030, this sort of broader stock valuation bubble may be needed to provide an attractive return on the exit price.\nBusiness transformation: The biggest TSLA bulls I speak to are those who believe TSLA may either remain a premium hardware maker with services on top like Apple Inc. (AAPL), or as a more asset-light, high return software platform like Microsoft (MSFT), whose P/B ratios are charted below Toyota's.\nFinancial engineering: One other driver of Apple's P/B expansion is buybacks, as I explained in this example with McDonald's. Buybacks at high P/B multiples reduce book value per share and raise the P/B multiple, all else equal, in ways exactly opposite to how Tesla has been only issuing (not buying back) shares so far.\n\nData by YCharts\nData by YCharts\nAnother way of comparing Tesla's $36 billion in annual sales vs. Toyota's $257 billion is on a revenue per capital basis. In other words, Tesla currently grosses around $5/year per person on the planet, vs. Toyota's roughly $37/year per human on earth. The growth question for 2030 is whether Tesla can still reach Toyota's number, especially given that:\n\nDemand for transportation, in terms of global population times the percentage of the global population that can afford a car, is likely to grow at a slower pace than historically, especially after 2030, and\nSelf-driving cars that aren't owned by one person, and so don't need to be parked idle most of the time, might actually decrease demand for new cars.\n\nWithout continued high growth past 2030, even 3x book might be on the high end for a car or battery company.\nData byYCharts\nTrading a TSLA P/B Contraction\nMy favorite actionable strategies on a stock like TSLA, which I don't expect to fundamentally collapse, but do expect to experience a significant multiple contraction, generally involve some form of option put spread. The option strategy described below works both for bears wanting to profit from an outright 20%-30% decline, or long-term bulls wanting to protect their shares' value against such a decline.\nOne challenge with simply buying put spreads on TSLA is that its option prices imply a significant \"positive skew,\" which makes put spreads relatively expensive to call spreads. In other words, the market is implying an expectation that TSLA shares are more likely than not to fall a little, offset by a smaller chance of a much larger upside move. Most of the near-the-money put spreads on TSLA cost more than 50% of the maximum payoff, even with longer-dated options or lower strike prices.\nFor the time horizon, I'm choosing the June 17, 2022, expiry date, which as of this writing is a little more than one year out. The main reasons I find first the expiry after one year to be a \"sweet spot\" for this type of strategy include:\n\nAs opposed to outright short selling, buying a put spread to profit from a decline in a share price may qualify for long-term capital gains tax treatment, as we would be holding a long position in a put spread longer than one year.\nAs opposed to even longer-dated options (say the two-year options expiring June 2023), rolling one-year options forces us to reevaluate our valuation and strike prices and decide if and in what form to roll the strategy after four more quarterly book value updates.\n\nIn this strategy, we buy 1x 650 strike put around 150 and then sell 2x 500 puts around 75 each, for roughly zero net up-front premium. Payoff scenarios based on TSLA's closing price at expiry include:\nSource: My Own Excel Calculation and Chart\nThe maximum payout ($150/share) divided by the maximum loss ($350/share) presents a \"maximum rate of return\" on this strategy is +42.8%, though getting that exact maximum payout is nearly impossible (as it requires TSLA to close at exactly $500/share on the expiry date). More likely, this option strategy would deliver a rate of return of more than 14.2% on the maximum loss if TSLA closes between 400-600 at expiry. If we follow the earlier earnings estimates and project TSLA's book value per share to be around $30/share by then, that means we expect a contract in P/B to between 13-20 by next summer.\nConclusion\nFor high-growth, non-dividend paying stocks like Tesla, return expectations break down into expectations of book value growth times expectation of P/B multiple expansion or contraction. Now that it's \"rounded the J-curve\" of profitability and reached a respectable level of sales, I believe Tesla is less likely to be the next DeLorean Motor Company, and at best like Microsoft in 2000. To summarize an example I often reference inLong Run Income, from 2000 to 2010, Microsoft's business continued to grow, but investors who bought at the beginning of 2000 were still down over 36% 10 years later because Microsoft's P/B multiple declined by that much more than the business grew. Here is one chart showing that \"lost decade\" for MSFT shareholders.\nData by YCharts\nFor investors who want to hedge a decline in TSLA shares from here to $500, or those who believe TSLA may be a good company that is just wildly overvalued at these levels and may be worth buying below $500, the 1x2 put spread strategy described above may be worth considering.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487330,"gmtCreate":1622753965020,"gmtModify":1704190407102,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582100057751905","authorIdStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is undervalued now","listText":"Alibaba is undervalued now","text":"Alibaba is undervalued now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487330","repostId":"2140422463","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140422463","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622734323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2140422463?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Alibaba, These 3 Chinese Tech Stocks Are Better Buys","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140422463","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Don't underestimate JD and these two other e-commerce companies.","content":"<p><b>Alibaba</b> (NYSE:BABA), China's top e-commerce and cloud company, lost nearly 10% of its value from January to late May, underperforming many industry peers. An antitrust probe in China, tighter auditing standards in the U.S., and the rotation from growth to value stocks all weighed down its stock.</p>\n<p>Alibaba's stock might look cheap at 18 times forward earnings, but analysts still expect its earnings to dip 3% this year as it absorbs a record $2.75 billion antitrust fine. It will also need to halt its exclusive deals with big brands, which could soften its defenses against smaller e-commerce marketplaces.</p>\n<p>And that's not all. Alibaba could be forced to divest its media assets and share its user data with the government, while its fintech affiliate, Ant Group, will be more tightly regulated as a financial holding company.&nbsp;Alibaba might weather all these headwinds and recover over the long term, but its stock could remain dead money for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<p>Instead of betting on Alibaba's potential comeback, investors should consider buying shares of Chinese tech stocks that aren't in regulatory crosshairs. These three e-commerce companies fit the bill: <b>JD.com </b>(NASDAQ:JD), <b>Pinduoduo</b> (NASDAQ:PDD), and <b>Baozun</b> (NASDAQ:BZUN).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F628813%2Fgettyimages-1170687091.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>1. JD.com</h2>\n<p>JD.com is China's second-largest e-commerce company after Alibaba. However, it's actually the country's largest direct retailer, since it generates most of its revenue from its first-party marketplace.</p>\n<p>Unlike Alibaba, which generates most of its e-commerce revenue from third-party sellers on Taobao and Tmall, JD takes on its own inventories and fulfills orders with its logistics network. This business model is more capital-intensive, but it shields its buyers from fake products.</p>\n<p>Alibaba's co-founder, Jack Ma, once said JD's lower-margin business model would end in a \"tragedy,\" but economies of scale gradually kicked in and enabled it to generate consistent profits. JD's logistics arm also balanced out its costs by offering its services to third-party customers.</p>\n<p>JD's revenue and&nbsp;adjusted earnings rose 29% and 57%, respectively, in 2020. It ended the first quarter with nearly 500 million annual active consumers, and analysts expect its revenue and earnings to grow another 26% and 13%, respectively, this year.</p>\n<p>JD doesn't face as much regulatory heat as Alibaba, it margins are expanding, and the stock trades at just 28 times forward earnings estimates and less than 1 times estimated sales.</p>\n<h2>2. Pinduoduo</h2>\n<p>Pinduoduo is the third-largest e-commerce player in China in terms of annual revenue, but in terms of total shoppers, it's actually bigger than JD, with 628 million annual active buyers. Like Alibaba, Pinduoduo generates most of its revenue through listing fees and ads for third-party merchants.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864f7f52e87d48721cc5ea7d15e3b4b0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>Pinduoduo carved out a niche with its discount marketplace, which encouraged shoppers to team up for group discounts. That strategy, which relied heavily on users sharing links across social networks, caught on across China's lower-tier cities.</p>\n<p>Pinduoduo subsequently expanded into China's top-tier cities and partnered with bigger brands to challenge Alibaba and JD. It also gained an early mover's advantage in online agriculture by enabling over 12 million farmers to directly ship their produce to customers.</p>\n<p>Pinduoduo's revenue surged 97% in&nbsp;2020, then soared another 239% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2021. Analysts expect its revenue to grow 92% for the full year. Those estimates are impressive for a stock that trades at about eight times this year's sales.</p>\n<p>Pinduoduo is still unprofitable due to its aggressive discounts, subsidies for sellers, and the expansion of its logistics network. However, its adjusted operating and net losses still narrowed year-over-year last quarter, and it could gradually inch toward profitability as it increases its scale.</p>\n<h2>3. Baozun</h2>\n<p>Baozun is sometimes called the \"<b>Shopify</b> of China\", but that comparison is misleading. Unlike Shopify, which provides self-serve e-commerce services to smaller businesses, Baozun mainly provides end-to-end e-commerce solutions to large international companies.</p>\n<p>It can be difficult for large U.S. companies to build Chinese websites, launch marketing campaigns, and set up e-commerce marketplaces, so Baozun is a \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-stop shop\" that handles all those needs. It also helps companies integrate their online marketplaces with Tmall, JD, and Pinduoduo, which makes it a well-balanced play on China's booming e-commerce sector.</p>\n<p>Baozun's business model is capital-intensive, but it expanded its margins in recent years by pivoting from a \"distribution-based\" model, in which it directly fulfilled orders, to a \"non-distribution\" based model, which allows its clients to directly ship their products to their customers.</p>\n<p>Baozun's revenue and adjusted earnings increased 22% and 50%, respectively, in 2020. Ninety-two percent of its GMV (gross merchandise volume) came from its non-distribution-based business. Analysts expect its revenue and adjusted earnings to rise 35% and 5%, respectively, this year.</p>\n<p>This oft-overlooked stock trades at just 19 times forward earnings and 1.5 times this year's sales, which might make it an undervalued growth stock if investors fall in love with Chinese tech companies again.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Alibaba, These 3 Chinese Tech Stocks Are Better Buys</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Alibaba, These 3 Chinese Tech Stocks Are Better Buys\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/03/forget-alibaba-these-3-chinese-tech-stocks-are-bet/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), China's top e-commerce and cloud company, lost nearly 10% of its value from January to late May, underperforming many industry peers. An antitrust probe in China, tighter auditing...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/03/forget-alibaba-these-3-chinese-tech-stocks-are-bet/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/03/forget-alibaba-these-3-chinese-tech-stocks-are-bet/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140422463","content_text":"Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), China's top e-commerce and cloud company, lost nearly 10% of its value from January to late May, underperforming many industry peers. An antitrust probe in China, tighter auditing standards in the U.S., and the rotation from growth to value stocks all weighed down its stock.\nAlibaba's stock might look cheap at 18 times forward earnings, but analysts still expect its earnings to dip 3% this year as it absorbs a record $2.75 billion antitrust fine. It will also need to halt its exclusive deals with big brands, which could soften its defenses against smaller e-commerce marketplaces.\nAnd that's not all. Alibaba could be forced to divest its media assets and share its user data with the government, while its fintech affiliate, Ant Group, will be more tightly regulated as a financial holding company. Alibaba might weather all these headwinds and recover over the long term, but its stock could remain dead money for the foreseeable future.\nInstead of betting on Alibaba's potential comeback, investors should consider buying shares of Chinese tech stocks that aren't in regulatory crosshairs. These three e-commerce companies fit the bill: JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), and Baozun (NASDAQ:BZUN).\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. JD.com\nJD.com is China's second-largest e-commerce company after Alibaba. However, it's actually the country's largest direct retailer, since it generates most of its revenue from its first-party marketplace.\nUnlike Alibaba, which generates most of its e-commerce revenue from third-party sellers on Taobao and Tmall, JD takes on its own inventories and fulfills orders with its logistics network. This business model is more capital-intensive, but it shields its buyers from fake products.\nAlibaba's co-founder, Jack Ma, once said JD's lower-margin business model would end in a \"tragedy,\" but economies of scale gradually kicked in and enabled it to generate consistent profits. JD's logistics arm also balanced out its costs by offering its services to third-party customers.\nJD's revenue and adjusted earnings rose 29% and 57%, respectively, in 2020. It ended the first quarter with nearly 500 million annual active consumers, and analysts expect its revenue and earnings to grow another 26% and 13%, respectively, this year.\nJD doesn't face as much regulatory heat as Alibaba, it margins are expanding, and the stock trades at just 28 times forward earnings estimates and less than 1 times estimated sales.\n2. Pinduoduo\nPinduoduo is the third-largest e-commerce player in China in terms of annual revenue, but in terms of total shoppers, it's actually bigger than JD, with 628 million annual active buyers. Like Alibaba, Pinduoduo generates most of its revenue through listing fees and ads for third-party merchants.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nPinduoduo carved out a niche with its discount marketplace, which encouraged shoppers to team up for group discounts. That strategy, which relied heavily on users sharing links across social networks, caught on across China's lower-tier cities.\nPinduoduo subsequently expanded into China's top-tier cities and partnered with bigger brands to challenge Alibaba and JD. It also gained an early mover's advantage in online agriculture by enabling over 12 million farmers to directly ship their produce to customers.\nPinduoduo's revenue surged 97% in 2020, then soared another 239% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2021. Analysts expect its revenue to grow 92% for the full year. Those estimates are impressive for a stock that trades at about eight times this year's sales.\nPinduoduo is still unprofitable due to its aggressive discounts, subsidies for sellers, and the expansion of its logistics network. However, its adjusted operating and net losses still narrowed year-over-year last quarter, and it could gradually inch toward profitability as it increases its scale.\n3. Baozun\nBaozun is sometimes called the \"Shopify of China\", but that comparison is misleading. Unlike Shopify, which provides self-serve e-commerce services to smaller businesses, Baozun mainly provides end-to-end e-commerce solutions to large international companies.\nIt can be difficult for large U.S. companies to build Chinese websites, launch marketing campaigns, and set up e-commerce marketplaces, so Baozun is a \"one-stop shop\" that handles all those needs. It also helps companies integrate their online marketplaces with Tmall, JD, and Pinduoduo, which makes it a well-balanced play on China's booming e-commerce sector.\nBaozun's business model is capital-intensive, but it expanded its margins in recent years by pivoting from a \"distribution-based\" model, in which it directly fulfilled orders, to a \"non-distribution\" based model, which allows its clients to directly ship their products to their customers.\nBaozun's revenue and adjusted earnings increased 22% and 50%, respectively, in 2020. Ninety-two percent of its GMV (gross merchandise volume) came from its non-distribution-based business. Analysts expect its revenue and adjusted earnings to rise 35% and 5%, respectively, this year.\nThis oft-overlooked stock trades at just 19 times forward earnings and 1.5 times this year's sales, which might make it an undervalued growth stock if investors fall in love with Chinese tech companies again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487035,"gmtCreate":1622753886927,"gmtModify":1704190406940,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582100057751905","authorIdStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a44dc55942ef5322cf90e79b906cb143","width":"1125","height":"2857"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118484514,"gmtCreate":1622753763138,"gmtModify":1704190412299,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582100057751905","authorIdStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I love TSLA","listText":"I love TSLA","text":"I love TSLA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118484514","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":118487330,"gmtCreate":1622753965020,"gmtModify":1704190407102,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582100057751905","idStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is undervalued now","listText":"Alibaba is undervalued now","text":"Alibaba is undervalued now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487330","repostId":"2140422463","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140422463","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622734323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2140422463?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Alibaba, These 3 Chinese Tech Stocks Are Better Buys","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140422463","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Don't underestimate JD and these two other e-commerce companies.","content":"<p><b>Alibaba</b> (NYSE:BABA), China's top e-commerce and cloud company, lost nearly 10% of its value from January to late May, underperforming many industry peers. An antitrust probe in China, tighter auditing standards in the U.S., and the rotation from growth to value stocks all weighed down its stock.</p>\n<p>Alibaba's stock might look cheap at 18 times forward earnings, but analysts still expect its earnings to dip 3% this year as it absorbs a record $2.75 billion antitrust fine. It will also need to halt its exclusive deals with big brands, which could soften its defenses against smaller e-commerce marketplaces.</p>\n<p>And that's not all. Alibaba could be forced to divest its media assets and share its user data with the government, while its fintech affiliate, Ant Group, will be more tightly regulated as a financial holding company.&nbsp;Alibaba might weather all these headwinds and recover over the long term, but its stock could remain dead money for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<p>Instead of betting on Alibaba's potential comeback, investors should consider buying shares of Chinese tech stocks that aren't in regulatory crosshairs. These three e-commerce companies fit the bill: <b>JD.com </b>(NASDAQ:JD), <b>Pinduoduo</b> (NASDAQ:PDD), and <b>Baozun</b> (NASDAQ:BZUN).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F628813%2Fgettyimages-1170687091.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>1. JD.com</h2>\n<p>JD.com is China's second-largest e-commerce company after Alibaba. However, it's actually the country's largest direct retailer, since it generates most of its revenue from its first-party marketplace.</p>\n<p>Unlike Alibaba, which generates most of its e-commerce revenue from third-party sellers on Taobao and Tmall, JD takes on its own inventories and fulfills orders with its logistics network. This business model is more capital-intensive, but it shields its buyers from fake products.</p>\n<p>Alibaba's co-founder, Jack Ma, once said JD's lower-margin business model would end in a \"tragedy,\" but economies of scale gradually kicked in and enabled it to generate consistent profits. JD's logistics arm also balanced out its costs by offering its services to third-party customers.</p>\n<p>JD's revenue and&nbsp;adjusted earnings rose 29% and 57%, respectively, in 2020. It ended the first quarter with nearly 500 million annual active consumers, and analysts expect its revenue and earnings to grow another 26% and 13%, respectively, this year.</p>\n<p>JD doesn't face as much regulatory heat as Alibaba, it margins are expanding, and the stock trades at just 28 times forward earnings estimates and less than 1 times estimated sales.</p>\n<h2>2. Pinduoduo</h2>\n<p>Pinduoduo is the third-largest e-commerce player in China in terms of annual revenue, but in terms of total shoppers, it's actually bigger than JD, with 628 million annual active buyers. Like Alibaba, Pinduoduo generates most of its revenue through listing fees and ads for third-party merchants.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864f7f52e87d48721cc5ea7d15e3b4b0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>Pinduoduo carved out a niche with its discount marketplace, which encouraged shoppers to team up for group discounts. That strategy, which relied heavily on users sharing links across social networks, caught on across China's lower-tier cities.</p>\n<p>Pinduoduo subsequently expanded into China's top-tier cities and partnered with bigger brands to challenge Alibaba and JD. It also gained an early mover's advantage in online agriculture by enabling over 12 million farmers to directly ship their produce to customers.</p>\n<p>Pinduoduo's revenue surged 97% in&nbsp;2020, then soared another 239% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2021. Analysts expect its revenue to grow 92% for the full year. Those estimates are impressive for a stock that trades at about eight times this year's sales.</p>\n<p>Pinduoduo is still unprofitable due to its aggressive discounts, subsidies for sellers, and the expansion of its logistics network. However, its adjusted operating and net losses still narrowed year-over-year last quarter, and it could gradually inch toward profitability as it increases its scale.</p>\n<h2>3. Baozun</h2>\n<p>Baozun is sometimes called the \"<b>Shopify</b> of China\", but that comparison is misleading. Unlike Shopify, which provides self-serve e-commerce services to smaller businesses, Baozun mainly provides end-to-end e-commerce solutions to large international companies.</p>\n<p>It can be difficult for large U.S. companies to build Chinese websites, launch marketing campaigns, and set up e-commerce marketplaces, so Baozun is a \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-stop shop\" that handles all those needs. It also helps companies integrate their online marketplaces with Tmall, JD, and Pinduoduo, which makes it a well-balanced play on China's booming e-commerce sector.</p>\n<p>Baozun's business model is capital-intensive, but it expanded its margins in recent years by pivoting from a \"distribution-based\" model, in which it directly fulfilled orders, to a \"non-distribution\" based model, which allows its clients to directly ship their products to their customers.</p>\n<p>Baozun's revenue and adjusted earnings increased 22% and 50%, respectively, in 2020. Ninety-two percent of its GMV (gross merchandise volume) came from its non-distribution-based business. Analysts expect its revenue and adjusted earnings to rise 35% and 5%, respectively, this year.</p>\n<p>This oft-overlooked stock trades at just 19 times forward earnings and 1.5 times this year's sales, which might make it an undervalued growth stock if investors fall in love with Chinese tech companies again.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Alibaba, These 3 Chinese Tech Stocks Are Better Buys</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Alibaba, These 3 Chinese Tech Stocks Are Better Buys\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/03/forget-alibaba-these-3-chinese-tech-stocks-are-bet/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), China's top e-commerce and cloud company, lost nearly 10% of its value from January to late May, underperforming many industry peers. An antitrust probe in China, tighter auditing...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/03/forget-alibaba-these-3-chinese-tech-stocks-are-bet/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/03/forget-alibaba-these-3-chinese-tech-stocks-are-bet/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140422463","content_text":"Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), China's top e-commerce and cloud company, lost nearly 10% of its value from January to late May, underperforming many industry peers. An antitrust probe in China, tighter auditing standards in the U.S., and the rotation from growth to value stocks all weighed down its stock.\nAlibaba's stock might look cheap at 18 times forward earnings, but analysts still expect its earnings to dip 3% this year as it absorbs a record $2.75 billion antitrust fine. It will also need to halt its exclusive deals with big brands, which could soften its defenses against smaller e-commerce marketplaces.\nAnd that's not all. Alibaba could be forced to divest its media assets and share its user data with the government, while its fintech affiliate, Ant Group, will be more tightly regulated as a financial holding company. Alibaba might weather all these headwinds and recover over the long term, but its stock could remain dead money for the foreseeable future.\nInstead of betting on Alibaba's potential comeback, investors should consider buying shares of Chinese tech stocks that aren't in regulatory crosshairs. These three e-commerce companies fit the bill: JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD), and Baozun (NASDAQ:BZUN).\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. JD.com\nJD.com is China's second-largest e-commerce company after Alibaba. However, it's actually the country's largest direct retailer, since it generates most of its revenue from its first-party marketplace.\nUnlike Alibaba, which generates most of its e-commerce revenue from third-party sellers on Taobao and Tmall, JD takes on its own inventories and fulfills orders with its logistics network. This business model is more capital-intensive, but it shields its buyers from fake products.\nAlibaba's co-founder, Jack Ma, once said JD's lower-margin business model would end in a \"tragedy,\" but economies of scale gradually kicked in and enabled it to generate consistent profits. JD's logistics arm also balanced out its costs by offering its services to third-party customers.\nJD's revenue and adjusted earnings rose 29% and 57%, respectively, in 2020. It ended the first quarter with nearly 500 million annual active consumers, and analysts expect its revenue and earnings to grow another 26% and 13%, respectively, this year.\nJD doesn't face as much regulatory heat as Alibaba, it margins are expanding, and the stock trades at just 28 times forward earnings estimates and less than 1 times estimated sales.\n2. Pinduoduo\nPinduoduo is the third-largest e-commerce player in China in terms of annual revenue, but in terms of total shoppers, it's actually bigger than JD, with 628 million annual active buyers. Like Alibaba, Pinduoduo generates most of its revenue through listing fees and ads for third-party merchants.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nPinduoduo carved out a niche with its discount marketplace, which encouraged shoppers to team up for group discounts. That strategy, which relied heavily on users sharing links across social networks, caught on across China's lower-tier cities.\nPinduoduo subsequently expanded into China's top-tier cities and partnered with bigger brands to challenge Alibaba and JD. It also gained an early mover's advantage in online agriculture by enabling over 12 million farmers to directly ship their produce to customers.\nPinduoduo's revenue surged 97% in 2020, then soared another 239% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2021. Analysts expect its revenue to grow 92% for the full year. Those estimates are impressive for a stock that trades at about eight times this year's sales.\nPinduoduo is still unprofitable due to its aggressive discounts, subsidies for sellers, and the expansion of its logistics network. However, its adjusted operating and net losses still narrowed year-over-year last quarter, and it could gradually inch toward profitability as it increases its scale.\n3. Baozun\nBaozun is sometimes called the \"Shopify of China\", but that comparison is misleading. Unlike Shopify, which provides self-serve e-commerce services to smaller businesses, Baozun mainly provides end-to-end e-commerce solutions to large international companies.\nIt can be difficult for large U.S. companies to build Chinese websites, launch marketing campaigns, and set up e-commerce marketplaces, so Baozun is a \"one-stop shop\" that handles all those needs. It also helps companies integrate their online marketplaces with Tmall, JD, and Pinduoduo, which makes it a well-balanced play on China's booming e-commerce sector.\nBaozun's business model is capital-intensive, but it expanded its margins in recent years by pivoting from a \"distribution-based\" model, in which it directly fulfilled orders, to a \"non-distribution\" based model, which allows its clients to directly ship their products to their customers.\nBaozun's revenue and adjusted earnings increased 22% and 50%, respectively, in 2020. Ninety-two percent of its GMV (gross merchandise volume) came from its non-distribution-based business. Analysts expect its revenue and adjusted earnings to rise 35% and 5%, respectively, this year.\nThis oft-overlooked stock trades at just 19 times forward earnings and 1.5 times this year's sales, which might make it an undervalued growth stock if investors fall in love with Chinese tech companies again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487265,"gmtCreate":1622754089057,"gmtModify":1704190406779,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582100057751905","idStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487265","repostId":"1160565063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487157,"gmtCreate":1622754008879,"gmtModify":1704190406293,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582100057751905","idStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487157","repostId":"1152573638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152573638","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622732138,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152573638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Only 2 Numbers That Matter To Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152573638","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAs long as there's zero dividend, Tesla investors are betting on one of two things: Very hi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>As long as there's zero dividend, Tesla investors are betting on one of two things: Very high book value growth, or continued Price/Book multiple expansion.</li>\n <li>Shareholders assuming Tesla's Price/Book multiple deflates from around 25 to 5 over the next 10 years need book value per share to grow 5x just to break even.</li>\n <li>So far, Tesla's growth in book value is mostly from \"Additional Paid-In Capital\" (issuing new shares at high prices), rather than retained earnings.</li>\n <li>Long-term earnings estimates imply book value per share sums up to 150-250 by the end of 2030, meaning a breakeven Price/Book of 2.5-4x, which is well above most mature autos.</li>\n <li>I present a 1x2 put spread as an attractive trade both for long investors concerned about overvaluation, as well as those seeking to bet on a Price/Book multiple contraction.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c329e23b2762c47b11d11d95ec584959\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Jag_cz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Book value per share is likely not the first metric that comes to mind when you think of a \"growth company of the future\" like Tesla (TSLA), but in this article, I will explain why book value per share is the most important bottom line number long-term investors in this company should watch. As long as zero dividends are expected, a TSLA shareholder's total return will, by definition, be defined by the growth of Tesla's book value per share crossed against the change in the Price/Book (P/B) multiple of those shares. After looking at some numbers underlying TSLA's book value per share, and how much it will have to grow for current TSLA shareholders to make money, I conclude with three actionable option strategies based on expectations for how these numbers may change in the medium term. This article also can be seen as a follow up to the&nbsp;2041 breakeven projection of Tesla I published last year.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla Share Price Rise Follows Book Value</b></p>\n<p>The first chart here shows how the rise in Tesla's share price has moved remarkably in line with TSLA's growth in book value per share. TSLA has so far never paid a dividend.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1f994d62f1ec67c3b95ae15c3791fa8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"458\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Multiple Expansion and Contraction</b></p>\n<p>The above chart, which is on a log scale, is far smoother than that of the (P/B) ratio between these two numbers. The multiple seemed to have stabilized between 2017 and late 2019, but its rise from below 7 in mid-2019 to over 40 in late 2020 and back to around 26 today explains much of TSLA's recent surge and volatility. Another way of thinking about it: TSLA's book value per share is up roughly 4-fold in the past two years, and its P/B is up about 4-fold over the past two years, which together explain why TSLA's shares are up about 16-fold over the past two years. The big question for investors at these levels is: What future combination of book value growth and P/B expansion or contraction can be expected to produce a satisfactory rate of return?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb71b806f59aaabd5d09a6eb4b1606\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"425\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Understanding Tesla's Book Value Growth</b></p>\n<p>Although the title of my Marketplace service<i>Long Run Income</i>implies a preference for dividends, we believe high-quality book value growth is the best kind of \"dividend alternative\" for companies who can reinvest cash profits internally at far higher rates of return than I can externally. I would challenge any investor to explain why else to buy a low-dividend or no-dividend stock except for the expectation of higher returns from book value growth. For that reason, I have come to focus my analysis of growth companies on how well they seem able to grow book value per share.</p>\n<p>I break down Tesla's book value trajectory into two main parts: Retained Earnings, and Additional Paid In Capital. Although Tesla seems to have \"rounded the J-curve\" of profitability, having reported&nbsp;7 consecutive quarters of positive earnings since September 2019, accumulated profits still fall short of accumulated losses by over $4 billion.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08701c599a8c6fa7a66efde3c0a12cac\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"425\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The other \"half\" (actually over 100%) of Tesla's book value comes from the money paid in by investors. TSLA has continuously raised capital over the past several years by issuing new shares, and the higher the valuation multiple at which TSLA can issue new shares, the more it can accumulate in Additional Paid In Capital. These share issuances also raise the number of shares outstanding, which has the dual effect of raising Tesla's overall market value (since the price per share is now multiplied by more shares), and diluting each share's per-share book value. This increase in book value per share and decline in Price/Book in every recent new share issuance effectively reflects a \"profit\" earlier shareholders enjoy for having later investors pay a higher valuation to get into the company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971bf86f3d08fe938af2845121be8d4c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Putting these above two charts together, we see that so far Tesla has \"made\" over $27 billion selling shares of its stock to investors, vs. losing over $4 billion in trying to sell cars and batteries to customers, and of course the latter eventually needs to overtake the former for investors to start making their money back.</p>\n<p><b>How Tesla's Earnings Projections Add Up</b></p>\n<p>If we assume that Tesla stops issuing new shares (a big assumption, but necessary to keep the math simple), then we can add up projected earnings per share to the book value per share to accumulate a projection of future book value per share. Projections of Tesla's future earnings deserve their own article or research report, so for the purposes of this update, I'll use the low vs high analyst forecasts on Tesla'sSeeking Alphaearnings page:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36166f6653fb8e11941e3c58b313ccb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha Earnings Page For TSLA</span></p>\n<p>Note that between 2025 and 2025, the low and median EPS estimates jump as the number of analysts covering the stock that far out falls from 11 to two, implying that the two analysts projecting TSLA's earnings out to 2030 are on the more optimistic end of the street. If we add up the low and high EPS estimates to today's starting book value per share of $23.90, we get a forecast of TSLA's book value of between $160 and $235 per share for the end of 2030. From today's price of around $623.90 per share, that means if TSLA's book value grows to around $200 (the middle of that optimistic range), then a contraction in TSLA's P/B from today's level of 26 to a still \"high for hardware\" multiple of 3 would mean shareholders would earn a 0% return between now and 2030. In other words, someone buying TSLA today would have to believe that either:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Tesla will grow its earnings and book value even faster than the most optimistic analyst estimates, or</li>\n <li>That investors will continue paying P/B multiples well above 3 for the stock.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>On forecasting what TSLA's P/B might be by 2030, there are three ways I can see expecting a multiple of 3 or higher:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><i>Another valuation bubble</i>: The P/B of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), charted below, reached highs around 3 in Japan's late 1980s bubble, and again in the late 1990s \"echo bubble,\" and that was its high. If TSLA becomes like TM by 2030, this sort of broader stock valuation bubble may be needed to provide an attractive return on the exit price.</li>\n <li><i>Business transformation</i>: The biggest TSLA bulls I speak to are those who believe TSLA may either remain a premium hardware maker with services on top like Apple Inc. (AAPL), or as a more asset-light, high return software platform like Microsoft (MSFT), whose P/B ratios are charted below Toyota's.</li>\n <li><i>Financial engineering</i>: One other driver of Apple's&nbsp;P/B expansion is buybacks, as I explained in this example with McDonald's. Buybacks at high P/B multiples reduce book value per share and raise the P/B multiple, all else equal, in ways exactly opposite to how Tesla has been only issuing (not buying back) shares so far.</li>\n</ol>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59e353b1112fb465bf275bfd2e2f5c38\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"425\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7432d2c24afe124c70d139e0320f2d0c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Another way of comparing Tesla's $36 billion in annual sales vs. Toyota's $257 billion is on a revenue per capital basis. In other words, Tesla currently grosses around $5/year per person on the planet, vs. Toyota's roughly $37/year per human on earth. The growth question for 2030 is whether Tesla can still reach Toyota's number, especially given that:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Demand for transportation, in terms of global population times the percentage of the global population that can afford a car, is likely to grow at a slower pace than historically, especially after 2030, and</li>\n <li>Self-driving cars that aren't owned by one person, and so don't need to be parked idle most of the time, might actually decrease demand for new cars.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Without continued high growth past 2030, even 3x book might be on the high end for a car or battery company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6900c059b599cc5885a2184ad6db05\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"537\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Trading a TSLA P/B Contraction</b></p>\n<p>My favorite actionable strategies on a stock like TSLA, which I don't expect to fundamentally collapse, but do expect to experience a significant multiple contraction, generally involve some form of option put spread. The option strategy described below works both for bears wanting to profit from an outright 20%-30% decline, or long-term bulls wanting to protect their shares' value against such a decline.</p>\n<p>One challenge with simply buying put spreads on TSLA is that its option prices imply a significant \"positive skew,\" which makes put spreads relatively expensive to call spreads. In other words, the market is implying an expectation that TSLA shares are more likely than not to fall a little, offset by a smaller chance of a much larger upside move. Most of the near-the-money put spreads on TSLA cost more than 50% of the maximum payoff, even with longer-dated options or lower strike prices.</p>\n<p>For the time horizon, I'm choosing the June 17, 2022, expiry date, which as of this writing is a little more than one year out. The main reasons I find first the expiry after one year to be a \"sweet spot\" for this type of strategy include:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>As opposed to outright short selling, buying a put spread to profit from a decline in a share price may qualify for long-term capital gains tax treatment, as we would be holding a long position in a put spread longer than one year.</li>\n <li>As opposed to even longer-dated options (say the two-year options expiring June 2023), rolling one-year options forces us to reevaluate our valuation and strike prices and decide if and in what form to roll the strategy after four more quarterly book value updates.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In this strategy, we buy 1x 650 strike put around 150 and then sell 2x 500 puts around 75 each, for roughly zero net up-front premium. Payoff scenarios based on TSLA's closing price at expiry include:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d415689c4d898bc75eba42b9f79152\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"452\"><span>Source: My Own Excel Calculation and Chart</span></p>\n<p>The maximum payout ($150/share) divided by the maximum loss ($350/share) presents a \"maximum rate of return\" on this strategy is +42.8%, though getting that exact maximum payout is nearly impossible (as it requires TSLA to close at exactly $500/share on the expiry date). More likely, this option strategy would deliver a rate of return of more than 14.2% on the maximum loss if TSLA closes between 400-600 at expiry. If we follow the earlier earnings estimates and project TSLA's book value per share to be around $30/share by then, that means we expect a contract in P/B to between 13-20 by next summer.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>For high-growth, non-dividend paying stocks like Tesla, return expectations break down into expectations of book value growth times expectation of P/B multiple expansion or contraction. Now that it's \"rounded the J-curve\" of profitability and reached a respectable level of sales, I believe Tesla is less likely to be the next&nbsp;DeLorean Motor Company, and at best like Microsoft in 2000. To summarize an example I often reference in<i>Long Run Income</i>, from 2000 to 2010, Microsoft's business continued to grow, but investors who bought at the beginning of 2000 were still down over 36% 10 years later because Microsoft's P/B multiple declined by that much more than the business grew. Here is one chart showing that \"lost decade\" for MSFT shareholders.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faaf554d7a7744d36d27ea7f92e9a9e2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>For investors who want to hedge a decline in TSLA shares from here to $500, or those who believe TSLA may be a good company that is just wildly overvalued at these levels and may be worth buying below $500, the 1x2 put spread strategy described above may be worth considering.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Only 2 Numbers That Matter To Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Only 2 Numbers That Matter To Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 22:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432862-tesla-the-only-2-numbers-that-matter-to-investors><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAs long as there's zero dividend, Tesla investors are betting on one of two things: Very high book value growth, or continued Price/Book multiple expansion.\nShareholders assuming Tesla's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432862-tesla-the-only-2-numbers-that-matter-to-investors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432862-tesla-the-only-2-numbers-that-matter-to-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152573638","content_text":"Summary\n\nAs long as there's zero dividend, Tesla investors are betting on one of two things: Very high book value growth, or continued Price/Book multiple expansion.\nShareholders assuming Tesla's Price/Book multiple deflates from around 25 to 5 over the next 10 years need book value per share to grow 5x just to break even.\nSo far, Tesla's growth in book value is mostly from \"Additional Paid-In Capital\" (issuing new shares at high prices), rather than retained earnings.\nLong-term earnings estimates imply book value per share sums up to 150-250 by the end of 2030, meaning a breakeven Price/Book of 2.5-4x, which is well above most mature autos.\nI present a 1x2 put spread as an attractive trade both for long investors concerned about overvaluation, as well as those seeking to bet on a Price/Book multiple contraction.\n\nPhoto by Jag_cz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBook value per share is likely not the first metric that comes to mind when you think of a \"growth company of the future\" like Tesla (TSLA), but in this article, I will explain why book value per share is the most important bottom line number long-term investors in this company should watch. As long as zero dividends are expected, a TSLA shareholder's total return will, by definition, be defined by the growth of Tesla's book value per share crossed against the change in the Price/Book (P/B) multiple of those shares. After looking at some numbers underlying TSLA's book value per share, and how much it will have to grow for current TSLA shareholders to make money, I conclude with three actionable option strategies based on expectations for how these numbers may change in the medium term. This article also can be seen as a follow up to the 2041 breakeven projection of Tesla I published last year.\nTesla Share Price Rise Follows Book Value\nThe first chart here shows how the rise in Tesla's share price has moved remarkably in line with TSLA's growth in book value per share. TSLA has so far never paid a dividend.\nData by YCharts\nMultiple Expansion and Contraction\nThe above chart, which is on a log scale, is far smoother than that of the (P/B) ratio between these two numbers. The multiple seemed to have stabilized between 2017 and late 2019, but its rise from below 7 in mid-2019 to over 40 in late 2020 and back to around 26 today explains much of TSLA's recent surge and volatility. Another way of thinking about it: TSLA's book value per share is up roughly 4-fold in the past two years, and its P/B is up about 4-fold over the past two years, which together explain why TSLA's shares are up about 16-fold over the past two years. The big question for investors at these levels is: What future combination of book value growth and P/B expansion or contraction can be expected to produce a satisfactory rate of return?\nData by YCharts\nUnderstanding Tesla's Book Value Growth\nAlthough the title of my Marketplace serviceLong Run Incomeimplies a preference for dividends, we believe high-quality book value growth is the best kind of \"dividend alternative\" for companies who can reinvest cash profits internally at far higher rates of return than I can externally. I would challenge any investor to explain why else to buy a low-dividend or no-dividend stock except for the expectation of higher returns from book value growth. For that reason, I have come to focus my analysis of growth companies on how well they seem able to grow book value per share.\nI break down Tesla's book value trajectory into two main parts: Retained Earnings, and Additional Paid In Capital. Although Tesla seems to have \"rounded the J-curve\" of profitability, having reported 7 consecutive quarters of positive earnings since September 2019, accumulated profits still fall short of accumulated losses by over $4 billion.\nData by YCharts\nThe other \"half\" (actually over 100%) of Tesla's book value comes from the money paid in by investors. TSLA has continuously raised capital over the past several years by issuing new shares, and the higher the valuation multiple at which TSLA can issue new shares, the more it can accumulate in Additional Paid In Capital. These share issuances also raise the number of shares outstanding, which has the dual effect of raising Tesla's overall market value (since the price per share is now multiplied by more shares), and diluting each share's per-share book value. This increase in book value per share and decline in Price/Book in every recent new share issuance effectively reflects a \"profit\" earlier shareholders enjoy for having later investors pay a higher valuation to get into the company.\nData by YCharts\nPutting these above two charts together, we see that so far Tesla has \"made\" over $27 billion selling shares of its stock to investors, vs. losing over $4 billion in trying to sell cars and batteries to customers, and of course the latter eventually needs to overtake the former for investors to start making their money back.\nHow Tesla's Earnings Projections Add Up\nIf we assume that Tesla stops issuing new shares (a big assumption, but necessary to keep the math simple), then we can add up projected earnings per share to the book value per share to accumulate a projection of future book value per share. Projections of Tesla's future earnings deserve their own article or research report, so for the purposes of this update, I'll use the low vs high analyst forecasts on Tesla'sSeeking Alphaearnings page:\nSource:SeekingAlpha Earnings Page For TSLA\nNote that between 2025 and 2025, the low and median EPS estimates jump as the number of analysts covering the stock that far out falls from 11 to two, implying that the two analysts projecting TSLA's earnings out to 2030 are on the more optimistic end of the street. If we add up the low and high EPS estimates to today's starting book value per share of $23.90, we get a forecast of TSLA's book value of between $160 and $235 per share for the end of 2030. From today's price of around $623.90 per share, that means if TSLA's book value grows to around $200 (the middle of that optimistic range), then a contraction in TSLA's P/B from today's level of 26 to a still \"high for hardware\" multiple of 3 would mean shareholders would earn a 0% return between now and 2030. In other words, someone buying TSLA today would have to believe that either:\n\nTesla will grow its earnings and book value even faster than the most optimistic analyst estimates, or\nThat investors will continue paying P/B multiples well above 3 for the stock.\n\nOn forecasting what TSLA's P/B might be by 2030, there are three ways I can see expecting a multiple of 3 or higher:\n\nAnother valuation bubble: The P/B of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), charted below, reached highs around 3 in Japan's late 1980s bubble, and again in the late 1990s \"echo bubble,\" and that was its high. If TSLA becomes like TM by 2030, this sort of broader stock valuation bubble may be needed to provide an attractive return on the exit price.\nBusiness transformation: The biggest TSLA bulls I speak to are those who believe TSLA may either remain a premium hardware maker with services on top like Apple Inc. (AAPL), or as a more asset-light, high return software platform like Microsoft (MSFT), whose P/B ratios are charted below Toyota's.\nFinancial engineering: One other driver of Apple's P/B expansion is buybacks, as I explained in this example with McDonald's. Buybacks at high P/B multiples reduce book value per share and raise the P/B multiple, all else equal, in ways exactly opposite to how Tesla has been only issuing (not buying back) shares so far.\n\nData by YCharts\nData by YCharts\nAnother way of comparing Tesla's $36 billion in annual sales vs. Toyota's $257 billion is on a revenue per capital basis. In other words, Tesla currently grosses around $5/year per person on the planet, vs. Toyota's roughly $37/year per human on earth. The growth question for 2030 is whether Tesla can still reach Toyota's number, especially given that:\n\nDemand for transportation, in terms of global population times the percentage of the global population that can afford a car, is likely to grow at a slower pace than historically, especially after 2030, and\nSelf-driving cars that aren't owned by one person, and so don't need to be parked idle most of the time, might actually decrease demand for new cars.\n\nWithout continued high growth past 2030, even 3x book might be on the high end for a car or battery company.\nData byYCharts\nTrading a TSLA P/B Contraction\nMy favorite actionable strategies on a stock like TSLA, which I don't expect to fundamentally collapse, but do expect to experience a significant multiple contraction, generally involve some form of option put spread. The option strategy described below works both for bears wanting to profit from an outright 20%-30% decline, or long-term bulls wanting to protect their shares' value against such a decline.\nOne challenge with simply buying put spreads on TSLA is that its option prices imply a significant \"positive skew,\" which makes put spreads relatively expensive to call spreads. In other words, the market is implying an expectation that TSLA shares are more likely than not to fall a little, offset by a smaller chance of a much larger upside move. Most of the near-the-money put spreads on TSLA cost more than 50% of the maximum payoff, even with longer-dated options or lower strike prices.\nFor the time horizon, I'm choosing the June 17, 2022, expiry date, which as of this writing is a little more than one year out. The main reasons I find first the expiry after one year to be a \"sweet spot\" for this type of strategy include:\n\nAs opposed to outright short selling, buying a put spread to profit from a decline in a share price may qualify for long-term capital gains tax treatment, as we would be holding a long position in a put spread longer than one year.\nAs opposed to even longer-dated options (say the two-year options expiring June 2023), rolling one-year options forces us to reevaluate our valuation and strike prices and decide if and in what form to roll the strategy after four more quarterly book value updates.\n\nIn this strategy, we buy 1x 650 strike put around 150 and then sell 2x 500 puts around 75 each, for roughly zero net up-front premium. Payoff scenarios based on TSLA's closing price at expiry include:\nSource: My Own Excel Calculation and Chart\nThe maximum payout ($150/share) divided by the maximum loss ($350/share) presents a \"maximum rate of return\" on this strategy is +42.8%, though getting that exact maximum payout is nearly impossible (as it requires TSLA to close at exactly $500/share on the expiry date). More likely, this option strategy would deliver a rate of return of more than 14.2% on the maximum loss if TSLA closes between 400-600 at expiry. If we follow the earlier earnings estimates and project TSLA's book value per share to be around $30/share by then, that means we expect a contract in P/B to between 13-20 by next summer.\nConclusion\nFor high-growth, non-dividend paying stocks like Tesla, return expectations break down into expectations of book value growth times expectation of P/B multiple expansion or contraction. Now that it's \"rounded the J-curve\" of profitability and reached a respectable level of sales, I believe Tesla is less likely to be the next DeLorean Motor Company, and at best like Microsoft in 2000. To summarize an example I often reference inLong Run Income, from 2000 to 2010, Microsoft's business continued to grow, but investors who bought at the beginning of 2000 were still down over 36% 10 years later because Microsoft's P/B multiple declined by that much more than the business grew. Here is one chart showing that \"lost decade\" for MSFT shareholders.\nData by YCharts\nFor investors who want to hedge a decline in TSLA shares from here to $500, or those who believe TSLA may be a good company that is just wildly overvalued at these levels and may be worth buying below $500, the 1x2 put spread strategy described above may be worth considering.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114092273,"gmtCreate":1623034226892,"gmtModify":1704194716214,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582100057751905","idStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114092273","repostId":"1149227206","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149227206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623032633,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149227206?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 10:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple heads into developer conference still in correction territory: Sector Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149227206","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)will kick off its annual Worldwide Developer Conference Monday with shares still s","content":"<ul><li>Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)will kick off its annual Worldwide Developer Conference Monday with shares still struggling since a peak in late January.</li><li>At 1 PM ET the keynote for its annual Worldwide Developer Conference hits.</li><li>New hardware reveals could include a new MacBook Pro release, both a 14-inch and 16-inch display driven by the M1 chip,according to Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.</li><li>The stock is still in correction territory, usually defined as 10% from a high. It's down 12% from the top in late January.</li><li>From a momentum point of view,it's fighting its 200-day simple moving average.</li><li>Also this week, Apple may be discussed in the ARK Investment Management's monthly webinar.</li><li>Cathie Wood's ARK team will discuss their holdings starting at 1:30 PM ET Tuesday.</li><li>ARK has almost completely divested from Apple, selling through May from its ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF).</li><li>The last sell was in May.</li><li>But Wood has talked about Apple and the self-driving car possibility on previous webinars.</li><li>Apple has lostthree execs from its self-driving program.</li><li>Seeking Alpha contributor Oleg Kombaiev argues there arestrange facts involving Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates.</li><li>Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber is concerned with valuation</li><li>\"I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company likeApple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet.\"</li></ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple heads into developer conference still in correction territory: Sector Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple heads into developer conference still in correction territory: Sector Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 10:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3703522-apple-heads-into-developer-conference-still-in-correction-territory><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)will kick off its annual Worldwide Developer Conference Monday with shares still struggling since a peak in late January.At 1 PM ET the keynote for its annual Worldwide Developer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3703522-apple-heads-into-developer-conference-still-in-correction-territory\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3703522-apple-heads-into-developer-conference-still-in-correction-territory","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149227206","content_text":"Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)will kick off its annual Worldwide Developer Conference Monday with shares still struggling since a peak in late January.At 1 PM ET the keynote for its annual Worldwide Developer Conference hits.New hardware reveals could include a new MacBook Pro release, both a 14-inch and 16-inch display driven by the M1 chip,according to Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.The stock is still in correction territory, usually defined as 10% from a high. It's down 12% from the top in late January.From a momentum point of view,it's fighting its 200-day simple moving average.Also this week, Apple may be discussed in the ARK Investment Management's monthly webinar.Cathie Wood's ARK team will discuss their holdings starting at 1:30 PM ET Tuesday.ARK has almost completely divested from Apple, selling through May from its ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF).The last sell was in May.But Wood has talked about Apple and the self-driving car possibility on previous webinars.Apple has lostthree execs from its self-driving program.Seeking Alpha contributor Oleg Kombaiev argues there arestrange facts involving Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates.Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber is concerned with valuation\"I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company likeApple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487470,"gmtCreate":1622754179090,"gmtModify":1704190407425,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582100057751905","idStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81a223c9149ec3739fbc24e1fd962c8","width":"1125","height":"3037"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487470","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118487035,"gmtCreate":1622753886927,"gmtModify":1704190406940,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582100057751905","idStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a44dc55942ef5322cf90e79b906cb143","width":"1125","height":"2857"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118487035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118484514,"gmtCreate":1622753763138,"gmtModify":1704190412299,"author":{"id":"3582100057751905","authorId":"3582100057751905","name":"Tesladudesg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fef532bc32aab69609478180bdcbad9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582100057751905","idStr":"3582100057751905"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I love TSLA","listText":"I love TSLA","text":"I love TSLA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118484514","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}