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王启聪
2021-08-13
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@Buy_Sell:?【8月13日】標普又雙叒叕新高，今天準備買什麼？
王启聪
2021-08-12
good
The US economy is becoming Japanese? The future will also usher in the "lost decade"?
王启聪
2021-07-05
?
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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>","listText":"buy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>","text":"buy $Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894494069","repostId":"894668142","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":894668142,"gmtCreate":1628822507282,"gmtModify":1676529866062,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"?【8月13日】標普又雙叒叕新高，今天準備買什麼？","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括對於大盤走勢後續的看法？看漲/看跌哪隻股票、曬曬單等等。 港股市場 8月13日，恆生指數開盤下跌221.63點，跌幅0.84%，報26296.19點；國企指數開盤下跌90.68點，跌幅0.96%，報9374.78點；紅籌指數開盤下跌10.27點，跌幅0.27%，報3818.03點。 恆生科技指數跌1.26%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00780\">$同程藝龍(00780)$</a> 跌2.69%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a> 跌2.46%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a> 跌2.24%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$</a> 跌近2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 與<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京東健康(06618)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$網易-S(09999)$</a> 跌約1.7%。 港股教育股下挫，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">$中國東方教育(00667)$</a> 跌超8%，<a target=\"\"></a>","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括對於大盤走勢後續的看法？看漲/看跌哪隻股票、曬曬單等等。 港股市場 8月13日，恆生指數開盤下跌221.63點，跌幅0.84%，報26296.19點；國企指數開盤下跌90.68點，跌幅0.96%，報9374.78點；紅籌指數開盤下跌10.27點，跌幅0.27%，報3818.03點。 恆生科技指數跌1.26%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00780\">$同程藝龍(00780)$</a> 跌2.69%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a> 跌2.46%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a> 跌2.24%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$</a> 跌近2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 與<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京東健康(06618)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$網易-S(09999)$</a> 跌約1.7%。 港股教育股下挫，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">$中國東方教育(00667)$</a> 跌超8%，<a target=\"\"></a>","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括對於大盤走勢後續的看法？看漲/看跌哪隻股票、曬曬單等等。 港股市場 8月13日，恆生指數開盤下跌221.63點，跌幅0.84%，報26296.19點；國企指數開盤下跌90.68點，跌幅0.96%，報9374.78點；紅籌指數開盤下跌10.27點，跌幅0.27%，報3818.03點。 恆生科技指數跌1.26%，$同程藝龍(00780)$ 跌2.69%，$阿里健康(00241)$ 跌2.46%，$騰訊控股(00700)$ 跌2.24%，$美團-W(03690)$ 跌近2%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 與$京東健康(06618)$ 、$網易-S(09999)$ 跌約1.7%。 港股教育股下挫，$中國東方教育(00667)$ 跌超8%，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c224c9889536a14f83eca563ae0bb07","width":"666","height":"284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894668142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894091968,"gmtCreate":1628776736454,"gmtModify":1676529851634,"author":{"id":"3581987140870961","authorId":"3581987140870961","name":"王启聪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae91141af2888dad8ce6110f86397f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581987140870961","authorIdStr":"3581987140870961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894091968","repostId":"1141996007","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141996007","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628776565,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141996007?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 21:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The US economy is becoming Japanese? The future will also usher in the \"lost decade\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141996007","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"美国企业研究所高级研究员拉赫曼指出，正如当年日本允许股市与房市双泡沫发展，最终酿成苦酒一样，美国现在也在坐视自己的双泡沫，即资产泡沫和信贷泡沫发展到史无前例的地步，还将必须控制公共财政的警告声抛在脑后","content":"<p><i>Rahman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that just as Japan allowed the development of double bubbles in the stock market and housing market, which eventually turned into bitter wine, the United States is now sitting back and watching its own double bubbles, that is, asset bubbles and credit bubbles, develop to an unprecedented level, and leaving behind the warning of having to control public finances, which is likely to lay the groundwork for the American version of the lost decade.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7e169db569c763d315f12e6ed670232\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In the 1990s, against the backdrop of extremely weak economic growth and deflationary prices, Japan's economy performed extremely disappointingly for a decade, which was later called the \"lost decade\". Needless to say, the direct reason why Japan's economy has fallen into such an embarrassing situation is the formation and bursting of the previous huge stock market and housing market double bubble. Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warns that a similar fate is likely for the United States.</p><p>The famous economist was the chief economic strategist for emerging markets at Salomon Smith Barney and deputy director of policy development and evaluation at the International Monetary Fund. He pointed out that just as Japan allowed the development of double bubbles in the stock market and housing market, which eventually turned into bitter wine, the United States is now sitting back and watching its own double bubbles, that is, asset bubbles and credit bubbles, develop to an unprecedented level, and leaving behind the warning that it must control public finances, which is likely to lay the groundwork for the American version of the lost decade.</p><p>The truth is, even before the coronavirus pandemic swept across the United States, the U.S. economy had begun to show some troubling signs of \"Japanization\". For example, since the double bubble in the housing market and the credit market burst in 2008, the United States nominally experienced the longest economic expansion cycle in history, but in fact, the slow recovery rate has also set a historical record. At the same time, inflation has been depressed for a long time, and the inflation rate has never reached the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>In this process, American enterprises, which had been highly leveraged as a whole before the global financial crisis, are still taking advantage of the persistently low interest rate to continue to borrow frantically, while in the public sector, both Democratic and Republican governments seem to have forgotten what budget discipline is for this time. While Republicans are keen to cut taxes but are reluctant to cut spending, Democrats have become more hesitant to raise taxes than before. The result is that the U.S. budget deficit is now at record levels, and the public debt is high, on a path that is doomed to be unsustainable.</p><p>Under such a general trend, the United States encountered the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Although this public health crisis can be called a once-in-a-century crisis, no matter how you look at it, the monetary and fiscal policy responses made by the United States are too expensive, which further increases the possibility of Japanization of the U.S. economy in the short term.</p><p>The US Federal Reserve's aggressive bond-buying program has kept interest rates at ultra-low levels, and in less than a year, the size of its balance sheet has soared by more than $4 trillion. As a result, the U.S. central bank has created the so-called \"everything bubble\", which covers everything from stocks to bonds to residential real estate. For example, the current valuation of U.S. stocks is equivalent to about twice the long-term average. A situation like this has only happened once in the past 100 years.</p><p>At the same time, the level of the housing bubble has surpassed the peak of the previous 2006 bubble, and prices have continued to rise, about 15% higher than they had been. Also, interest rate spreads on high-yield corporate bonds are now near their lowest in history.</p><p>In a situation where the Fed's monetary policy has been too loose and its fiscal policy has been extremely inflated, the stimulus budget is equivalent to as much as 12% of the GDP expected in 2021, although in reality, according to the Congressional Budget Office estimates, the output gap of the U.S. economy is only about 3% of the GDP expected. This means that under the policy of the Biden administration, the risk of economic overheating and long-term high inflation is increasing day by day, and this risk may be fully implemented before the end of this year.</p><p>At the same time, Biden is still reluctant to consider the important task of sorting out the budget and bringing public debt back to manageable territory. On the contrary, he is pushing a $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill in Congress, as well as a $3.5 trillion policy package for poverty alleviation and climate control, and, horribly, none of these spending plans have a viable and credible corresponding financing method. This means that for the foreseeable future, the US economy will be shrouded in high budget deficits and the risk of completely out-of-control debt levels.</p><p>Now, the rate of inflation in the United States has reached the level only seen in the past three decades, and the actual inflation level has been at least twice the target set by the Fed. In this case, the Fed is forced to step on the brake plate of loose monetary policy, and the policy shift to curb inflation is actually only a matter of time.</p><p>Needless to say, the first step in the Fed's tightening path will be to reduce the scale of bond purchases, followed by rate hike. Once they start such a turn, there is a high probability that it will lead to the bursting of the double bubble in the asset and credit markets, because the most fundamental premise for the emergence and continuous expansion of the \"bubble of everything\" is that everyone firmly believes that ultra-low interest rates will always exist. When the super bubble bursts, the U.S. economy will inevitably be affected by a collateral impact. In this case, the tax revenue of the U.S. government will inevitably decrease, which will rapidly deteriorate the already worrying public finances.</p><p>As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the double bubbles of real estate and stock markets burst at the same time in the early 1990s, causing the Japanese economy to suffer a decade of loss. Soon after, the burst of the bubble of everything will make the American economy repeat the mistakes of Japan, and even the lost time may take longer.</p><p>In this long cycle, the economic growth is disappointing, inflation is difficult to rise, the budget deficit remains high, and zombie enterprises are everywhere in the market. Faced with this situation, the Federal Reserve can only resort to a new round of quantitative easing. Unfortunately, this time their efforts are doomed to be futile, which can only make the American economy slide further and further on the road of Japanization.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US economy is becoming Japanese? The future will also usher in the \"lost decade\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US economy is becoming Japanese? The future will also usher in the \"lost decade\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Rahman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that just as Japan allowed the development of double bubbles in the stock market and housing market, which eventually turned into bitter wine, the United States is now sitting back and watching its own double bubbles, that is, asset bubbles and credit bubbles, develop to an unprecedented level, and leaving behind the warning of having to control public finances, which is likely to lay the groundwork for the American version of the lost decade.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7e169db569c763d315f12e6ed670232\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In the 1990s, against the backdrop of extremely weak economic growth and deflationary prices, Japan's economy performed extremely disappointingly for a decade, which was later called the \"lost decade\". Needless to say, the direct reason why Japan's economy has fallen into such an embarrassing situation is the formation and bursting of the previous huge stock market and housing market double bubble. Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warns that a similar fate is likely for the United States.</p><p>The famous economist was the chief economic strategist for emerging markets at Salomon Smith Barney and deputy director of policy development and evaluation at the International Monetary Fund. He pointed out that just as Japan allowed the development of double bubbles in the stock market and housing market, which eventually turned into bitter wine, the United States is now sitting back and watching its own double bubbles, that is, asset bubbles and credit bubbles, develop to an unprecedented level, and leaving behind the warning that it must control public finances, which is likely to lay the groundwork for the American version of the lost decade.</p><p>The truth is, even before the coronavirus pandemic swept across the United States, the U.S. economy had begun to show some troubling signs of \"Japanization\". For example, since the double bubble in the housing market and the credit market burst in 2008, the United States nominally experienced the longest economic expansion cycle in history, but in fact, the slow recovery rate has also set a historical record. At the same time, inflation has been depressed for a long time, and the inflation rate has never reached the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>In this process, American enterprises, which had been highly leveraged as a whole before the global financial crisis, are still taking advantage of the persistently low interest rate to continue to borrow frantically, while in the public sector, both Democratic and Republican governments seem to have forgotten what budget discipline is for this time. While Republicans are keen to cut taxes but are reluctant to cut spending, Democrats have become more hesitant to raise taxes than before. The result is that the U.S. budget deficit is now at record levels, and the public debt is high, on a path that is doomed to be unsustainable.</p><p>Under such a general trend, the United States encountered the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Although this public health crisis can be called a once-in-a-century crisis, no matter how you look at it, the monetary and fiscal policy responses made by the United States are too expensive, which further increases the possibility of Japanization of the U.S. economy in the short term.</p><p>The US Federal Reserve's aggressive bond-buying program has kept interest rates at ultra-low levels, and in less than a year, the size of its balance sheet has soared by more than $4 trillion. As a result, the U.S. central bank has created the so-called \"everything bubble\", which covers everything from stocks to bonds to residential real estate. For example, the current valuation of U.S. stocks is equivalent to about twice the long-term average. A situation like this has only happened once in the past 100 years.</p><p>At the same time, the level of the housing bubble has surpassed the peak of the previous 2006 bubble, and prices have continued to rise, about 15% higher than they had been. Also, interest rate spreads on high-yield corporate bonds are now near their lowest in history.</p><p>In a situation where the Fed's monetary policy has been too loose and its fiscal policy has been extremely inflated, the stimulus budget is equivalent to as much as 12% of the GDP expected in 2021, although in reality, according to the Congressional Budget Office estimates, the output gap of the U.S. economy is only about 3% of the GDP expected. This means that under the policy of the Biden administration, the risk of economic overheating and long-term high inflation is increasing day by day, and this risk may be fully implemented before the end of this year.</p><p>At the same time, Biden is still reluctant to consider the important task of sorting out the budget and bringing public debt back to manageable territory. On the contrary, he is pushing a $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill in Congress, as well as a $3.5 trillion policy package for poverty alleviation and climate control, and, horribly, none of these spending plans have a viable and credible corresponding financing method. This means that for the foreseeable future, the US economy will be shrouded in high budget deficits and the risk of completely out-of-control debt levels.</p><p>Now, the rate of inflation in the United States has reached the level only seen in the past three decades, and the actual inflation level has been at least twice the target set by the Fed. In this case, the Fed is forced to step on the brake plate of loose monetary policy, and the policy shift to curb inflation is actually only a matter of time.</p><p>Needless to say, the first step in the Fed's tightening path will be to reduce the scale of bond purchases, followed by rate hike. Once they start such a turn, there is a high probability that it will lead to the bursting of the double bubble in the asset and credit markets, because the most fundamental premise for the emergence and continuous expansion of the \"bubble of everything\" is that everyone firmly believes that ultra-low interest rates will always exist. When the super bubble bursts, the U.S. economy will inevitably be affected by a collateral impact. In this case, the tax revenue of the U.S. government will inevitably decrease, which will rapidly deteriorate the already worrying public finances.</p><p>As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the double bubbles of real estate and stock markets burst at the same time in the early 1990s, causing the Japanese economy to suffer a decade of loss. Soon after, the burst of the bubble of everything will make the American economy repeat the mistakes of Japan, and even the lost time may take longer.</p><p>In this long cycle, the economic growth is disappointing, inflation is difficult to rise, the budget deficit remains high, and zombie enterprises are everywhere in the market. Faced with this situation, the Federal Reserve can only resort to a new round of quantitative easing. Unfortunately, this time their efforts are doomed to be futile, which can only make the American economy slide further and further on the road of Japanization.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DAKgmb-5YfEF6fgail8LzQ\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DAKgmb-5YfEF6fgail8LzQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141996007","content_text":"美国企业研究所高级研究员拉赫曼指出，正如当年日本允许股市与房市双泡沫发展，最终酿成苦酒一样，美国现在也在坐视自己的双泡沫，即资产泡沫和信贷泡沫发展到史无前例的地步，还将必须控制公共财政的警告声抛在脑后，而这很可能就在为美国版失落的十年埋下伏笔。\n\n\n20世纪90年代，在经济增长极度无力，以及价格陷入通货紧缩的大背景下，日本经济长达十年的表现都极度令人失望，被后来人称为“失落的十年”。日本经济之所以会坠入如此困窘的境地，不必说，直接原因就是之前巨大的股市与房市双泡沫的形成与破灭。美国企业研究所高级研究员拉赫曼（Desmond Lachman）警告说，美国也很可能将迎来类似的命运。\n这位著名经济学家曾任所罗门美邦新兴市场首席经济策略师与国际货币基金政策发展与评估部副主任。他指出，正如当年日本允许股市与房市双泡沫发展，最终酿成苦酒一样，美国现在也在坐视自己的双泡沫，即资产泡沫和信贷泡沫发展到史无前例的地步，还将必须控制公共财政的警告声抛在脑后，而这很可能就在为美国版失落的十年埋下伏笔。\n事实就是，哪怕在新冠病毒疫情席卷全美之前，美国经济就已经开始显露出一些令人不安的“日本化”征兆了。比如说，从2008年住宅市场和信贷市场双泡沫破灭之后，美国名义上是经历了史上最长的经济扩张周期，但是实际上，复苏速度的迟缓也创下了历史纪录，而与此同时，通货膨胀长期低迷，通胀率始终达不到联储确定的2%目标。\n就在这样的进程当中，原本在全球金融危机前就已经整体高度杠杆化的美国企业，还在利用持续的低利率继续疯狂举债，而在公共部门，无论是民主党还是共和党政府，这段时间以来似乎也都忘记了预算纪律为何物。共和党人非常热心于减税，但是却死活不愿意减少财政支出，而与此同时，民主党人在增税上也变得比以前犹豫了许多。结果就是，美国财政预算赤字现在已经来到了创纪录的水平，公共债务高企，走上了一条注定不能持久的道路。\n在这样的大趋势之下，美国2020年遭遇了新冠病毒疫情。虽然这场公共健康危机堪称是百年一遇，但是无论怎么看，美国做出的货币政策和财政政策反应都实在是太过昂贵了，也使得美国经济在短期内日本化的可能性进一步增大了。\n美国联储执行着激进的债券购买计划，将利率持续压制在超低的水平，在短短不到一年时间里，其资产负债表的规模就猛增了超过4万亿美元。由此，美国央行也就创造出了所谓“万物泡沫”，从股票到债券再到住宅房地产，全部都在覆盖之内。比如，美股目前的估值已经相当于长期平均水平的大约两倍，类似这样的局面，在过去一百年时间里也只出现过一次。\n与此同时，房市泡沫的水平也已经超越了之前2006年那一轮泡沫的顶点水平，而且价格还在持续上涨，较之当初已经高出了大约15%。还有，高收益率企业债券利率差现在也接近史上最低点。\n在联储的货币政策已经宽松到无以复加的情况，财政政策也极端膨胀，刺激预算规模相当于2021年国内生产总值预期的12%之多，尽管实际上，根据国会预算办公室估计，美国经济的产出缺口只有国内生产总值预期的3%左右。这也就意味着，拜登政府的政策之下，经济过热，以及高通货膨胀长期化的风险正在与日俱增，而这风险在今年年底之前就可能会彻底落实。\n与此同时，拜登还不肯考虑整理预算，让公共债务重归可控范围的重要任务，恰恰相反，他在国会强推1万亿美元的基础设施支出法案，以及3.5万亿美元的脱贫和气候控制政策包，而要命的是，这些支出计划都没有可行和可信的相应融资方法。这便意味着，在目力可及的未来，美国经济都将笼罩在高预算赤字，以及债务水平彻底失控的风险之下。\n现在，美国通货膨胀的发展速度已经达到了过去三十年来所仅见的水平，而实际通货膨胀水平已经至少两倍于联储设定的目标，在这种情况下，联储被迫踩下宽松货币政策的刹车板，以遏制通货膨胀的政策转向其实只剩下了时间还是问题。\n不必说，联储紧缩之路的第一步首先就将是缩减购债操作的规模，接下来就将是加息了。一旦他们开始这样的转向，大概率就会导致资产和信贷市场双泡沫的破灭，因为“万物泡沫”能够出现并不断膨胀的最根本前提就在于，大家都坚信超低利率将永远存在。当超级泡沫破灭，美国经济将不可避免地受到连带冲击，在这种情况下，美国政府的税收收入必然会减少，使得原本已经状况堪忧的公共财政情况迅速进一步恶化。\n就像文章开头所说，房地产和股票市场的双泡沫于20世纪90年代初同时破灭，导致日本经济遭遇了失落十年，而不久后万物泡沫的破灭，也极大概率会让美国经济重蹈当年日本的覆辙，甚至失落的时间完全可能来得更长。\n在这个漫长的周期里，经济增长令人失望，通货膨胀难以抬头，预算赤字居高不下，僵尸企业遍布市场，而联储面对这样的局面也只能诉诸新一轮的量化宽松，而遗憾的是，这一次他们的努力注定将是徒劳，只能使得美国经济在日本化的道路上越滑越远。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154169960,"gmtCreate":1625490094950,"gmtModify":1703742601670,"author":{"id":"3581987140870961","authorId":"3581987140870961","name":"王启聪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae91141af2888dad8ce6110f86397f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581987140870961","authorIdStr":"3581987140870961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154169960","repostId":"1199542780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":894494069,"gmtCreate":1628845434551,"gmtModify":1676529872919,"author":{"id":"3581987140870961","authorId":"3581987140870961","name":"王启聪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae91141af2888dad8ce6110f86397f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581987140870961","authorIdStr":"3581987140870961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>","listText":"buy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>","text":"buy $Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894494069","repostId":"894668142","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":894668142,"gmtCreate":1628822507282,"gmtModify":1676529866062,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"?【8月13日】標普又雙叒叕新高，今天準備買什麼？","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括對於大盤走勢後續的看法？看漲/看跌哪隻股票、曬曬單等等。 港股市場 8月13日，恆生指數開盤下跌221.63點，跌幅0.84%，報26296.19點；國企指數開盤下跌90.68點，跌幅0.96%，報9374.78點；紅籌指數開盤下跌10.27點，跌幅0.27%，報3818.03點。 恆生科技指數跌1.26%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00780\">$同程藝龍(00780)$</a> 跌2.69%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a> 跌2.46%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a> 跌2.24%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$</a> 跌近2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 與<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京東健康(06618)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$網易-S(09999)$</a> 跌約1.7%。 港股教育股下挫，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">$中國東方教育(00667)$</a> 跌超8%，<a target=\"\"></a>","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括對於大盤走勢後續的看法？看漲/看跌哪隻股票、曬曬單等等。 港股市場 8月13日，恆生指數開盤下跌221.63點，跌幅0.84%，報26296.19點；國企指數開盤下跌90.68點，跌幅0.96%，報9374.78點；紅籌指數開盤下跌10.27點，跌幅0.27%，報3818.03點。 恆生科技指數跌1.26%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00780\">$同程藝龍(00780)$</a> 跌2.69%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a> 跌2.46%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a> 跌2.24%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$</a> 跌近2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 與<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京東健康(06618)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$網易-S(09999)$</a> 跌約1.7%。 港股教育股下挫，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">$中國東方教育(00667)$</a> 跌超8%，<a target=\"\"></a>","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括對於大盤走勢後續的看法？看漲/看跌哪隻股票、曬曬單等等。 港股市場 8月13日，恆生指數開盤下跌221.63點，跌幅0.84%，報26296.19點；國企指數開盤下跌90.68點，跌幅0.96%，報9374.78點；紅籌指數開盤下跌10.27點，跌幅0.27%，報3818.03點。 恆生科技指數跌1.26%，$同程藝龍(00780)$ 跌2.69%，$阿里健康(00241)$ 跌2.46%，$騰訊控股(00700)$ 跌2.24%，$美團-W(03690)$ 跌近2%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 與$京東健康(06618)$ 、$網易-S(09999)$ 跌約1.7%。 港股教育股下挫，$中國東方教育(00667)$ 跌超8%，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c224c9889536a14f83eca563ae0bb07","width":"666","height":"284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894668142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894091968,"gmtCreate":1628776736454,"gmtModify":1676529851634,"author":{"id":"3581987140870961","authorId":"3581987140870961","name":"王启聪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae91141af2888dad8ce6110f86397f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581987140870961","authorIdStr":"3581987140870961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894091968","repostId":"1141996007","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141996007","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628776565,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141996007?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 21:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The US economy is becoming Japanese? The future will also usher in the \"lost decade\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141996007","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"美国企业研究所高级研究员拉赫曼指出，正如当年日本允许股市与房市双泡沫发展，最终酿成苦酒一样，美国现在也在坐视自己的双泡沫，即资产泡沫和信贷泡沫发展到史无前例的地步，还将必须控制公共财政的警告声抛在脑后","content":"<p><i>Rahman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that just as Japan allowed the development of double bubbles in the stock market and housing market, which eventually turned into bitter wine, the United States is now sitting back and watching its own double bubbles, that is, asset bubbles and credit bubbles, develop to an unprecedented level, and leaving behind the warning of having to control public finances, which is likely to lay the groundwork for the American version of the lost decade.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7e169db569c763d315f12e6ed670232\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In the 1990s, against the backdrop of extremely weak economic growth and deflationary prices, Japan's economy performed extremely disappointingly for a decade, which was later called the \"lost decade\". Needless to say, the direct reason why Japan's economy has fallen into such an embarrassing situation is the formation and bursting of the previous huge stock market and housing market double bubble. Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warns that a similar fate is likely for the United States.</p><p>The famous economist was the chief economic strategist for emerging markets at Salomon Smith Barney and deputy director of policy development and evaluation at the International Monetary Fund. He pointed out that just as Japan allowed the development of double bubbles in the stock market and housing market, which eventually turned into bitter wine, the United States is now sitting back and watching its own double bubbles, that is, asset bubbles and credit bubbles, develop to an unprecedented level, and leaving behind the warning that it must control public finances, which is likely to lay the groundwork for the American version of the lost decade.</p><p>The truth is, even before the coronavirus pandemic swept across the United States, the U.S. economy had begun to show some troubling signs of \"Japanization\". For example, since the double bubble in the housing market and the credit market burst in 2008, the United States nominally experienced the longest economic expansion cycle in history, but in fact, the slow recovery rate has also set a historical record. At the same time, inflation has been depressed for a long time, and the inflation rate has never reached the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>In this process, American enterprises, which had been highly leveraged as a whole before the global financial crisis, are still taking advantage of the persistently low interest rate to continue to borrow frantically, while in the public sector, both Democratic and Republican governments seem to have forgotten what budget discipline is for this time. While Republicans are keen to cut taxes but are reluctant to cut spending, Democrats have become more hesitant to raise taxes than before. The result is that the U.S. budget deficit is now at record levels, and the public debt is high, on a path that is doomed to be unsustainable.</p><p>Under such a general trend, the United States encountered the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Although this public health crisis can be called a once-in-a-century crisis, no matter how you look at it, the monetary and fiscal policy responses made by the United States are too expensive, which further increases the possibility of Japanization of the U.S. economy in the short term.</p><p>The US Federal Reserve's aggressive bond-buying program has kept interest rates at ultra-low levels, and in less than a year, the size of its balance sheet has soared by more than $4 trillion. As a result, the U.S. central bank has created the so-called \"everything bubble\", which covers everything from stocks to bonds to residential real estate. For example, the current valuation of U.S. stocks is equivalent to about twice the long-term average. A situation like this has only happened once in the past 100 years.</p><p>At the same time, the level of the housing bubble has surpassed the peak of the previous 2006 bubble, and prices have continued to rise, about 15% higher than they had been. Also, interest rate spreads on high-yield corporate bonds are now near their lowest in history.</p><p>In a situation where the Fed's monetary policy has been too loose and its fiscal policy has been extremely inflated, the stimulus budget is equivalent to as much as 12% of the GDP expected in 2021, although in reality, according to the Congressional Budget Office estimates, the output gap of the U.S. economy is only about 3% of the GDP expected. This means that under the policy of the Biden administration, the risk of economic overheating and long-term high inflation is increasing day by day, and this risk may be fully implemented before the end of this year.</p><p>At the same time, Biden is still reluctant to consider the important task of sorting out the budget and bringing public debt back to manageable territory. On the contrary, he is pushing a $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill in Congress, as well as a $3.5 trillion policy package for poverty alleviation and climate control, and, horribly, none of these spending plans have a viable and credible corresponding financing method. This means that for the foreseeable future, the US economy will be shrouded in high budget deficits and the risk of completely out-of-control debt levels.</p><p>Now, the rate of inflation in the United States has reached the level only seen in the past three decades, and the actual inflation level has been at least twice the target set by the Fed. In this case, the Fed is forced to step on the brake plate of loose monetary policy, and the policy shift to curb inflation is actually only a matter of time.</p><p>Needless to say, the first step in the Fed's tightening path will be to reduce the scale of bond purchases, followed by rate hike. Once they start such a turn, there is a high probability that it will lead to the bursting of the double bubble in the asset and credit markets, because the most fundamental premise for the emergence and continuous expansion of the \"bubble of everything\" is that everyone firmly believes that ultra-low interest rates will always exist. When the super bubble bursts, the U.S. economy will inevitably be affected by a collateral impact. In this case, the tax revenue of the U.S. government will inevitably decrease, which will rapidly deteriorate the already worrying public finances.</p><p>As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the double bubbles of real estate and stock markets burst at the same time in the early 1990s, causing the Japanese economy to suffer a decade of loss. Soon after, the burst of the bubble of everything will make the American economy repeat the mistakes of Japan, and even the lost time may take longer.</p><p>In this long cycle, the economic growth is disappointing, inflation is difficult to rise, the budget deficit remains high, and zombie enterprises are everywhere in the market. Faced with this situation, the Federal Reserve can only resort to a new round of quantitative easing. Unfortunately, this time their efforts are doomed to be futile, which can only make the American economy slide further and further on the road of Japanization.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US economy is becoming Japanese? The future will also usher in the \"lost decade\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US economy is becoming Japanese? The future will also usher in the \"lost decade\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Rahman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that just as Japan allowed the development of double bubbles in the stock market and housing market, which eventually turned into bitter wine, the United States is now sitting back and watching its own double bubbles, that is, asset bubbles and credit bubbles, develop to an unprecedented level, and leaving behind the warning of having to control public finances, which is likely to lay the groundwork for the American version of the lost decade.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7e169db569c763d315f12e6ed670232\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In the 1990s, against the backdrop of extremely weak economic growth and deflationary prices, Japan's economy performed extremely disappointingly for a decade, which was later called the \"lost decade\". Needless to say, the direct reason why Japan's economy has fallen into such an embarrassing situation is the formation and bursting of the previous huge stock market and housing market double bubble. Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warns that a similar fate is likely for the United States.</p><p>The famous economist was the chief economic strategist for emerging markets at Salomon Smith Barney and deputy director of policy development and evaluation at the International Monetary Fund. He pointed out that just as Japan allowed the development of double bubbles in the stock market and housing market, which eventually turned into bitter wine, the United States is now sitting back and watching its own double bubbles, that is, asset bubbles and credit bubbles, develop to an unprecedented level, and leaving behind the warning that it must control public finances, which is likely to lay the groundwork for the American version of the lost decade.</p><p>The truth is, even before the coronavirus pandemic swept across the United States, the U.S. economy had begun to show some troubling signs of \"Japanization\". For example, since the double bubble in the housing market and the credit market burst in 2008, the United States nominally experienced the longest economic expansion cycle in history, but in fact, the slow recovery rate has also set a historical record. At the same time, inflation has been depressed for a long time, and the inflation rate has never reached the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>In this process, American enterprises, which had been highly leveraged as a whole before the global financial crisis, are still taking advantage of the persistently low interest rate to continue to borrow frantically, while in the public sector, both Democratic and Republican governments seem to have forgotten what budget discipline is for this time. While Republicans are keen to cut taxes but are reluctant to cut spending, Democrats have become more hesitant to raise taxes than before. The result is that the U.S. budget deficit is now at record levels, and the public debt is high, on a path that is doomed to be unsustainable.</p><p>Under such a general trend, the United States encountered the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Although this public health crisis can be called a once-in-a-century crisis, no matter how you look at it, the monetary and fiscal policy responses made by the United States are too expensive, which further increases the possibility of Japanization of the U.S. economy in the short term.</p><p>The US Federal Reserve's aggressive bond-buying program has kept interest rates at ultra-low levels, and in less than a year, the size of its balance sheet has soared by more than $4 trillion. As a result, the U.S. central bank has created the so-called \"everything bubble\", which covers everything from stocks to bonds to residential real estate. For example, the current valuation of U.S. stocks is equivalent to about twice the long-term average. A situation like this has only happened once in the past 100 years.</p><p>At the same time, the level of the housing bubble has surpassed the peak of the previous 2006 bubble, and prices have continued to rise, about 15% higher than they had been. Also, interest rate spreads on high-yield corporate bonds are now near their lowest in history.</p><p>In a situation where the Fed's monetary policy has been too loose and its fiscal policy has been extremely inflated, the stimulus budget is equivalent to as much as 12% of the GDP expected in 2021, although in reality, according to the Congressional Budget Office estimates, the output gap of the U.S. economy is only about 3% of the GDP expected. This means that under the policy of the Biden administration, the risk of economic overheating and long-term high inflation is increasing day by day, and this risk may be fully implemented before the end of this year.</p><p>At the same time, Biden is still reluctant to consider the important task of sorting out the budget and bringing public debt back to manageable territory. On the contrary, he is pushing a $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill in Congress, as well as a $3.5 trillion policy package for poverty alleviation and climate control, and, horribly, none of these spending plans have a viable and credible corresponding financing method. This means that for the foreseeable future, the US economy will be shrouded in high budget deficits and the risk of completely out-of-control debt levels.</p><p>Now, the rate of inflation in the United States has reached the level only seen in the past three decades, and the actual inflation level has been at least twice the target set by the Fed. In this case, the Fed is forced to step on the brake plate of loose monetary policy, and the policy shift to curb inflation is actually only a matter of time.</p><p>Needless to say, the first step in the Fed's tightening path will be to reduce the scale of bond purchases, followed by rate hike. Once they start such a turn, there is a high probability that it will lead to the bursting of the double bubble in the asset and credit markets, because the most fundamental premise for the emergence and continuous expansion of the \"bubble of everything\" is that everyone firmly believes that ultra-low interest rates will always exist. When the super bubble bursts, the U.S. economy will inevitably be affected by a collateral impact. In this case, the tax revenue of the U.S. government will inevitably decrease, which will rapidly deteriorate the already worrying public finances.</p><p>As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the double bubbles of real estate and stock markets burst at the same time in the early 1990s, causing the Japanese economy to suffer a decade of loss. Soon after, the burst of the bubble of everything will make the American economy repeat the mistakes of Japan, and even the lost time may take longer.</p><p>In this long cycle, the economic growth is disappointing, inflation is difficult to rise, the budget deficit remains high, and zombie enterprises are everywhere in the market. Faced with this situation, the Federal Reserve can only resort to a new round of quantitative easing. Unfortunately, this time their efforts are doomed to be futile, which can only make the American economy slide further and further on the road of Japanization.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DAKgmb-5YfEF6fgail8LzQ\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DAKgmb-5YfEF6fgail8LzQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141996007","content_text":"美国企业研究所高级研究员拉赫曼指出，正如当年日本允许股市与房市双泡沫发展，最终酿成苦酒一样，美国现在也在坐视自己的双泡沫，即资产泡沫和信贷泡沫发展到史无前例的地步，还将必须控制公共财政的警告声抛在脑后，而这很可能就在为美国版失落的十年埋下伏笔。\n\n\n20世纪90年代，在经济增长极度无力，以及价格陷入通货紧缩的大背景下，日本经济长达十年的表现都极度令人失望，被后来人称为“失落的十年”。日本经济之所以会坠入如此困窘的境地，不必说，直接原因就是之前巨大的股市与房市双泡沫的形成与破灭。美国企业研究所高级研究员拉赫曼（Desmond Lachman）警告说，美国也很可能将迎来类似的命运。\n这位著名经济学家曾任所罗门美邦新兴市场首席经济策略师与国际货币基金政策发展与评估部副主任。他指出，正如当年日本允许股市与房市双泡沫发展，最终酿成苦酒一样，美国现在也在坐视自己的双泡沫，即资产泡沫和信贷泡沫发展到史无前例的地步，还将必须控制公共财政的警告声抛在脑后，而这很可能就在为美国版失落的十年埋下伏笔。\n事实就是，哪怕在新冠病毒疫情席卷全美之前，美国经济就已经开始显露出一些令人不安的“日本化”征兆了。比如说，从2008年住宅市场和信贷市场双泡沫破灭之后，美国名义上是经历了史上最长的经济扩张周期，但是实际上，复苏速度的迟缓也创下了历史纪录，而与此同时，通货膨胀长期低迷，通胀率始终达不到联储确定的2%目标。\n就在这样的进程当中，原本在全球金融危机前就已经整体高度杠杆化的美国企业，还在利用持续的低利率继续疯狂举债，而在公共部门，无论是民主党还是共和党政府，这段时间以来似乎也都忘记了预算纪律为何物。共和党人非常热心于减税，但是却死活不愿意减少财政支出，而与此同时，民主党人在增税上也变得比以前犹豫了许多。结果就是，美国财政预算赤字现在已经来到了创纪录的水平，公共债务高企，走上了一条注定不能持久的道路。\n在这样的大趋势之下，美国2020年遭遇了新冠病毒疫情。虽然这场公共健康危机堪称是百年一遇，但是无论怎么看，美国做出的货币政策和财政政策反应都实在是太过昂贵了，也使得美国经济在短期内日本化的可能性进一步增大了。\n美国联储执行着激进的债券购买计划，将利率持续压制在超低的水平，在短短不到一年时间里，其资产负债表的规模就猛增了超过4万亿美元。由此，美国央行也就创造出了所谓“万物泡沫”，从股票到债券再到住宅房地产，全部都在覆盖之内。比如，美股目前的估值已经相当于长期平均水平的大约两倍，类似这样的局面，在过去一百年时间里也只出现过一次。\n与此同时，房市泡沫的水平也已经超越了之前2006年那一轮泡沫的顶点水平，而且价格还在持续上涨，较之当初已经高出了大约15%。还有，高收益率企业债券利率差现在也接近史上最低点。\n在联储的货币政策已经宽松到无以复加的情况，财政政策也极端膨胀，刺激预算规模相当于2021年国内生产总值预期的12%之多，尽管实际上，根据国会预算办公室估计，美国经济的产出缺口只有国内生产总值预期的3%左右。这也就意味着，拜登政府的政策之下，经济过热，以及高通货膨胀长期化的风险正在与日俱增，而这风险在今年年底之前就可能会彻底落实。\n与此同时，拜登还不肯考虑整理预算，让公共债务重归可控范围的重要任务，恰恰相反，他在国会强推1万亿美元的基础设施支出法案，以及3.5万亿美元的脱贫和气候控制政策包，而要命的是，这些支出计划都没有可行和可信的相应融资方法。这便意味着，在目力可及的未来，美国经济都将笼罩在高预算赤字，以及债务水平彻底失控的风险之下。\n现在，美国通货膨胀的发展速度已经达到了过去三十年来所仅见的水平，而实际通货膨胀水平已经至少两倍于联储设定的目标，在这种情况下，联储被迫踩下宽松货币政策的刹车板，以遏制通货膨胀的政策转向其实只剩下了时间还是问题。\n不必说，联储紧缩之路的第一步首先就将是缩减购债操作的规模，接下来就将是加息了。一旦他们开始这样的转向，大概率就会导致资产和信贷市场双泡沫的破灭，因为“万物泡沫”能够出现并不断膨胀的最根本前提就在于，大家都坚信超低利率将永远存在。当超级泡沫破灭，美国经济将不可避免地受到连带冲击，在这种情况下，美国政府的税收收入必然会减少，使得原本已经状况堪忧的公共财政情况迅速进一步恶化。\n就像文章开头所说，房地产和股票市场的双泡沫于20世纪90年代初同时破灭，导致日本经济遭遇了失落十年，而不久后万物泡沫的破灭，也极大概率会让美国经济重蹈当年日本的覆辙，甚至失落的时间完全可能来得更长。\n在这个漫长的周期里，经济增长令人失望，通货膨胀难以抬头，预算赤字居高不下，僵尸企业遍布市场，而联储面对这样的局面也只能诉诸新一轮的量化宽松，而遗憾的是，这一次他们的努力注定将是徒劳，只能使得美国经济在日本化的道路上越滑越远。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154169960,"gmtCreate":1625490094950,"gmtModify":1703742601670,"author":{"id":"3581987140870961","authorId":"3581987140870961","name":"王启聪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae91141af2888dad8ce6110f86397f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581987140870961","authorIdStr":"3581987140870961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154169960","repostId":"1199542780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
