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2023-02-19

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2023-01-16

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Top 10 Global Stock Market Themes in 2023 According to Morgan Stanley: On Corporate Earnings, Global Recession, China and India, and Saudi Arabia's Rise

2023-01-10

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Opening | Alibaba opens higher, Tesla rises more than 2%

2023-01-07

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FDA approves 'most promising' new drug to cure Alzheimer's

2023-01-07

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2023-01-06

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The Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters

2023-01-02

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Russia fights back against "price limits" and has warned that it will implement crude oil production cuts and sales bans

2022-12-26

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Do you have the conditions for reunion during the Spring Festival? Zhang Boli responded

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07:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Top 10 Global Stock Market Themes in 2023 According to Morgan Stanley: On Corporate Earnings, Global Recession, China and India, and Saudi Arabia's Rise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102521229","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利认为，在2023年欧美公司利润承压，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，印度、沙特的发展等将成为股市主题。在过去的2022年，美联储暴力加息，俄乌冲突等多方力量共同作用持续影响市场。美股三大股指均创下","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley believes that in 2023, the profits of European and American companies will be under pressure, the optimistic prospects of Chinese and Asian economies, and the development of India and Saudi Arabia will become the themes of the stock market. In the past 2022, the violent rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other forces jointly affected the market. All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Heading into 2023, with the prospect of weaker demand amid a slowing global economy, investors are thinking about what themes, besides the Federal Reserve, will dominate the market this year.</p><p>The Morgan Stanley analyst team's latest roundup of the top 10 themes for global equities in 2023 includes:<b>The profit margins of European and American companies are under pressure, from stagflation to recession, the optimistic prospects of Chinese and Asian economies, ESG ratings driving company valuations, the next round of IPOs and capital outflow from the secondary market, the planet's reduction of carbon emissions, the development of India and Saudi Arabia, the era of multiple incomes brought by ChatGPT and what to do about obesity, etc.</b></p><p><b>Topic 1: The Challenge of Profit Margins for European and American Companies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the company's costs can't go down and its bargaining power declines in 2023,<b>Causes earnings to suffer and profit margins to come under pressure</b>。 From the American perspective,<b>This year's S&P 500 earnings will be under huge pressure and face a 'earnings cliff'</b>：</p><p>We believe that when the growth rate of costs exceeds the growth rate of sales, the company's earnings growth will be severely hit, and the operating leverage factor will be negative. Considering that (1) the job market in certain industries is still hot and there is a shortage of labor, wage costs may remain at a high level (2) the inventory filled at a higher price in the case of insufficient supply has led to an overstock situation, this phenomenon may be more serious in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ee758835f7a66189d9b772716989f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to the sharp decline in profit margins,<b>Morgan Stanley thinks European stocks may fall 10% this year</b>：</p><p>Our metrics that monitor profit margins in Europe show a margin contraction of more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, comparable to what was seen during the global financial crisis. Higher wages, still high inflation, slowing end demand and declining pricing power will all lead to the negative operating leverage we expect.<b>Theme 2: From stagflation to deflation and even recession</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed to inflation and escalating interest rates as major drivers of capital markets and industry performance in 2022. Heading into 2023, the focus will shift to lower inflation and slower growth:</p><p>Our U.S. economists expect inflation in the U.S. to decline significantly in the coming quarters, putting downward pressure on bond yields in favor of defensive stocks and GARP stocks. Morgan Stanley believes that inventory will face dual challenges. On the one hand, the bottleneck problem in the supply chain has basically disappeared, while on the other hand, the demand side, especially for goods, is slowing down:</p><p>Supply chain problems in most industries have disappeared, and imports of goods to the United States are rising sharply. The inventory-to-sales ratio of U.S. companies has been rising since the financial crisis and is now at its highest level since 1990. We think many companies are using discounts to solve this problem.<b>Theme 3: Optimistic Prospects for China and Asian Economies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that unlike Western economies, where development will slow further in 2023,<b>With the continuous improvement of policies, the economic development prospects of China and Asia will be more positive and ushered in the recovery</b>：</p><p>Combined with our anticipated weakness in the US dollar, it should stimulate investor interest in assets in Asia, the Middle East and China, including fixed income and equities. China's market and emerging markets may see a rebound.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a909a6cabcf3d4a1cd6ec33a31cbd6a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme Four: ESG's Ratings Drive Alpha</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the rating of ESG in 2023 will be a key focus for investors looking for something that can generate alpha and impact the company's future. Morgan Stanley explains:</p><p>By analyzing 90 stocks across the globe, we analysts believe that as long as there is a clear improvement in one ESG metric, it will have a positive impact on both its financials and valuation. We believe that ESG ratings provide a better gauge of a stock's future than traditional ratings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c9ce45f9093561c77630ee06eed714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme 5: Helping to reduce carbon emissions on the planet</b></p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, companies that can provide sustainable development technologies for different industries in the future will become promoters of social development:</p><p>Our analysts list more than 50 companies that have changed the industry's original \"rules of the game\" and continued to advance sustainable technology. $500 billion of capital is scrambling to disrupt the current status quo of reducing carbon emissions.<b>Theme 6: The next round of IPO and the outflow of funds from the secondary market</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley said that at present, unicorn companies need to refinance, and funds may flow out of the secondary market to support investment:</p><p>In the past 15 years, only 3% of the 1,420 companies have made IPOs in downcycles; More than 50% of companies continue to IPO or be acquired at higher valuations in the future. If the next round of IPOs happens, it's most likely to happen in mid-2023 for most budding unicorns. History suggests that companies that raised funds in 2021 will have their next round around the second quarter of 2023, followed by an IPO in the following 9-12 months.<b>Theme 7: India's Decade</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that over the next 10 years,<b>India may become the world's third largest economy and stock market</b>：</p><p>We believe that India already has what it takes to achieve economic prosperity driven by offshoring, manufacturing investment, energy transition, and the country's advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers will make it the world's third largest economy and stock market within a decade.<b>Theme 8: Saudi Arabia Will Rise Fast</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed out,<b>Saudi Arabia's \"Vision 2030\" announced in 2016 gained tremendous momentum in 2022, and the momentum is expected to extend into the next decade</b>：</p><p>Saudi Arabia has launched more than $1 trillion worth of projects aimed at transforming the country into an economic powerhouse to achieve Vision 2030. We estimate that Saudi Arabia may spend about $900 billion by 2030 (compared with an estimated $50 billion spent so far). We believe contractors in South Korea and India, as well as the luxury goods sector, will benefit.<b>Theme 9: The Age of Multiple Earners</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out that with the rapid iteration and development of ChatGPT and other generative AI, the question is starting to be begged: which jobs will be replaced in the future. In the medium to long term,<b>Future jobs need more flexibility</b>：</p><p>We believe that now the pursuit of work has begun to shift to seeking multiple sources of income. This is creating a large and growing population whose marginal time will be better spent on different jobs to generate multiple income streams, and people in Gen Z are leading the shift in this paradigm.<b>Topic 10: Obesity x Social Media</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that Wegovy (obesity drugs), Ozempic (hypoglycemic drugs) and semaglutide (weight loss drugs) are being mentioned a lot in TikTok short-video videos and comments, which will bring about a series of treatment areas such as obesity. The rise of:</p><p>We suggest that the result of too much discussion about obesity is (1) knowledge of drugs, thus making it possible (2) that demand for drugs will spread exponentially in the future. We believe that global sales of obesity drugs can reach more than $50 billion by 2030, which will raise spending on obesity to the top 12 global spending in the treatment field.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3c5aaf95bc7b7b1ed0f240500ad6a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 Global Stock Market Themes in 2023 According to Morgan Stanley: On Corporate Earnings, Global Recession, China and India, and Saudi Arabia's Rise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 Global Stock Market Themes in 2023 According to Morgan Stanley: On Corporate Earnings, Global Recession, China and India, and Saudi Arabia's Rise\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-17 07:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley believes that in 2023, the profits of European and American companies will be under pressure, the optimistic prospects of Chinese and Asian economies, and the development of India and Saudi Arabia will become the themes of the stock market. In the past 2022, the violent rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other forces jointly affected the market. All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Heading into 2023, with the prospect of weaker demand amid a slowing global economy, investors are thinking about what themes, besides the Federal Reserve, will dominate the market this year.</p><p>The Morgan Stanley analyst team's latest roundup of the top 10 themes for global equities in 2023 includes:<b>The profit margins of European and American companies are under pressure, from stagflation to recession, the optimistic prospects of Chinese and Asian economies, ESG ratings driving company valuations, the next round of IPOs and capital outflow from the secondary market, the planet's reduction of carbon emissions, the development of India and Saudi Arabia, the era of multiple incomes brought by ChatGPT and what to do about obesity, etc.</b></p><p><b>Topic 1: The Challenge of Profit Margins for European and American Companies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the company's costs can't go down and its bargaining power declines in 2023,<b>Causes earnings to suffer and profit margins to come under pressure</b>。 From the American perspective,<b>This year's S&P 500 earnings will be under huge pressure and face a 'earnings cliff'</b>：</p><p>We believe that when the growth rate of costs exceeds the growth rate of sales, the company's earnings growth will be severely hit, and the operating leverage factor will be negative. Considering that (1) the job market in certain industries is still hot and there is a shortage of labor, wage costs may remain at a high level (2) the inventory filled at a higher price in the case of insufficient supply has led to an overstock situation, this phenomenon may be more serious in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ee758835f7a66189d9b772716989f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to the sharp decline in profit margins,<b>Morgan Stanley thinks European stocks may fall 10% this year</b>：</p><p>Our metrics that monitor profit margins in Europe show a margin contraction of more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, comparable to what was seen during the global financial crisis. Higher wages, still high inflation, slowing end demand and declining pricing power will all lead to the negative operating leverage we expect.<b>Theme 2: From stagflation to deflation and even recession</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed to inflation and escalating interest rates as major drivers of capital markets and industry performance in 2022. Heading into 2023, the focus will shift to lower inflation and slower growth:</p><p>Our U.S. economists expect inflation in the U.S. to decline significantly in the coming quarters, putting downward pressure on bond yields in favor of defensive stocks and GARP stocks. Morgan Stanley believes that inventory will face dual challenges. On the one hand, the bottleneck problem in the supply chain has basically disappeared, while on the other hand, the demand side, especially for goods, is slowing down:</p><p>Supply chain problems in most industries have disappeared, and imports of goods to the United States are rising sharply. The inventory-to-sales ratio of U.S. companies has been rising since the financial crisis and is now at its highest level since 1990. We think many companies are using discounts to solve this problem.<b>Theme 3: Optimistic Prospects for China and Asian Economies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that unlike Western economies, where development will slow further in 2023,<b>With the continuous improvement of policies, the economic development prospects of China and Asia will be more positive and ushered in the recovery</b>：</p><p>Combined with our anticipated weakness in the US dollar, it should stimulate investor interest in assets in Asia, the Middle East and China, including fixed income and equities. China's market and emerging markets may see a rebound.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a909a6cabcf3d4a1cd6ec33a31cbd6a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme Four: ESG's Ratings Drive Alpha</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the rating of ESG in 2023 will be a key focus for investors looking for something that can generate alpha and impact the company's future. Morgan Stanley explains:</p><p>By analyzing 90 stocks across the globe, we analysts believe that as long as there is a clear improvement in one ESG metric, it will have a positive impact on both its financials and valuation. We believe that ESG ratings provide a better gauge of a stock's future than traditional ratings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c9ce45f9093561c77630ee06eed714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme 5: Helping to reduce carbon emissions on the planet</b></p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, companies that can provide sustainable development technologies for different industries in the future will become promoters of social development:</p><p>Our analysts list more than 50 companies that have changed the industry's original \"rules of the game\" and continued to advance sustainable technology. $500 billion of capital is scrambling to disrupt the current status quo of reducing carbon emissions.<b>Theme 6: The next round of IPO and the outflow of funds from the secondary market</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley said that at present, unicorn companies need to refinance, and funds may flow out of the secondary market to support investment:</p><p>In the past 15 years, only 3% of the 1,420 companies have made IPOs in downcycles; More than 50% of companies continue to IPO or be acquired at higher valuations in the future. If the next round of IPOs happens, it's most likely to happen in mid-2023 for most budding unicorns. History suggests that companies that raised funds in 2021 will have their next round around the second quarter of 2023, followed by an IPO in the following 9-12 months.<b>Theme 7: India's Decade</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that over the next 10 years,<b>India may become the world's third largest economy and stock market</b>：</p><p>We believe that India already has what it takes to achieve economic prosperity driven by offshoring, manufacturing investment, energy transition, and the country's advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers will make it the world's third largest economy and stock market within a decade.<b>Theme 8: Saudi Arabia Will Rise Fast</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed out,<b>Saudi Arabia's \"Vision 2030\" announced in 2016 gained tremendous momentum in 2022, and the momentum is expected to extend into the next decade</b>：</p><p>Saudi Arabia has launched more than $1 trillion worth of projects aimed at transforming the country into an economic powerhouse to achieve Vision 2030. We estimate that Saudi Arabia may spend about $900 billion by 2030 (compared with an estimated $50 billion spent so far). We believe contractors in South Korea and India, as well as the luxury goods sector, will benefit.<b>Theme 9: The Age of Multiple Earners</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out that with the rapid iteration and development of ChatGPT and other generative AI, the question is starting to be begged: which jobs will be replaced in the future. In the medium to long term,<b>Future jobs need more flexibility</b>：</p><p>We believe that now the pursuit of work has begun to shift to seeking multiple sources of income. This is creating a large and growing population whose marginal time will be better spent on different jobs to generate multiple income streams, and people in Gen Z are leading the shift in this paradigm.<b>Topic 10: Obesity x Social Media</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that Wegovy (obesity drugs), Ozempic (hypoglycemic drugs) and semaglutide (weight loss drugs) are being mentioned a lot in TikTok short-video videos and comments, which will bring about a series of treatment areas such as obesity. The rise of:</p><p>We suggest that the result of too much discussion about obesity is (1) knowledge of drugs, thus making it possible (2) that demand for drugs will spread exponentially in the future. We believe that global sales of obesity drugs can reach more than $50 billion by 2030, which will raise spending on obesity to the top 12 global spending in the treatment field.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3c5aaf95bc7b7b1ed0f240500ad6a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679983\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679983","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102521229","content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，在2023年欧美公司利润承压，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，印度、沙特的发展等将成为股市主题。在过去的2022年，美联储暴力加息，俄乌冲突等多方力量共同作用持续影响市场。美股三大股指均创下2008年金融危机以来的最差年度表现。进入2023年，在全球经济放缓需求走弱的前景下，投资者开始思考，除了美联储以外，还有哪些主题将主导今年的市场。摩根士丹利分析团队最新总结了2023年全球股市的十大主题，包括：欧美公司利润率承压，从滞涨到衰退，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，ESG的评级驱动公司估值，下轮IPO及资金从二级市场流出，地球减少碳排放，印度、沙特的发展，ChatGPT带来的多种收入者时代以及肥胖症该怎么办等。主题一：欧美公司利润率的挑战摩根士丹利认为2023年公司的成本无法下降且议价能力下降，导致盈利受到影响，利润率承压。从美国来看，今年标普500的盈利将面临巨大压力，并面临“盈利悬崖”：我们认为，当成本的增速超过销售的增速时，公司盈利增长就会受到剧烈打击，出现经营杠杆系数为负的情况。考虑到（1）某些行业的就业市场依旧火爆，劳动力短缺的情况，工资成本或将维持在高位（2）在供应不足的情况下以较高价格填补的库存导致了库存过剩的情况，这种现象在2023年可能更加严重。因利润率大幅下降，摩根士丹利认为今年欧洲股市或将下跌10%：我们监控欧洲利润率的指标显示，未来12个月的利润率收缩将超过200个基点，与全球金融危机期间的情况相当。更高的工资，仍处高位的通胀、终端需求的放缓和定价能力的下降，都会导致我们预期的经营杠杆系数为负的情况。主题二：从滞胀到通缩甚至衰退摩根士丹利指出，通胀和不断攀升的利率是2022年资本市场和行业表现的主要驱动力。进入2023年，重点将转移到较低的通胀及较慢的增长：我们的美国经济学家预计，美国的通胀率将在未来几个季度大幅下降，这将给债券收益率带来下行压力，有利于防御性股票和GARP股票。摩根士丹利认为，库存将面临双重挑战，一方面供应链的瓶颈问题已基本消失，而另一方面需求端，特别是对货物的需求，正在放缓：大多数行业的供应链问题已经消失，美国的货物进口量正急剧上升。自金融危机以来，美国公司的库存与销售的比例一直在上升，现在正处于1990年以来的最高水平。我们认为许多公司正用打折来解决这个问题。主题三：中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景摩根士丹利认为，与西方经济体的发展将在2023年进一步放缓不同，随着不断优化的政策，中国及亚洲的经济发展前景将较为乐观，迎来复苏：叠加我们预期的美元疲软，应该会激发投资者们对亚洲、中东、中国资产（包括固定收益和股票）的兴趣。中国的市场及新兴市场的或将迎来反弹。主题四：ESG的评级驱动阿尔法摩根士丹利认为，2023年ESG的评级，将成为投资者寻找能够产生阿尔法和影响公司未来的一个关键焦点，摩根士丹利解释称：通过分析全球范围内的90只股票，我们分析师认为只要一个ESG指标有明显的改善，对其财务和估值都将产生积极影响。我们相信，与传统的评级相比，ESG评级能更好地衡量股票的未来。主题五： 为地球减少碳排放助力摩根士丹利分析称，未来可以为不同行业提供可持续发展技术的公司将成为社会发展的推动者：我们的分析师列出了超过50家改变了行业原本的 “游戏规则 ”，持续推进可持续发展技术的公司。5000亿美元的资本正在争先恐后地打破当下停止不前的减少碳排放现状。主题六：下轮IPO及资金从二级市场流出摩根士丹利称，当下正处于独角兽企业需要重新融资的时期，资金或将从二级市场流出，以支持投资：在过去的15年里，1420家公司中只有3%在下行周期进行了IPO；超过50%的公司都在未来继续进行IPO或以更高估值被收购。如果下一轮IPO会发生，那么对于大多数新晋的独角兽公司来说，最有可能在2023年年中发生。历史表明，在2021年进行融资的公司将在2023年第二季度左右进行下一轮融资，并在随后的9-12个月进行IPO。主题七：印度的十年摩根士丹利认为，在接下来的10年内，印度或成为世界第三大经济体和股票市场：我们认为，印度已经具备了在离岸外包、制造业投资、能源转型和国家先进的数字基础设施的推动下实现经济繁荣的条件。这些驱动力将使其在十年内成为世界第三大经济体和股票市场。主题八：沙特将快速崛起大摩指出，沙特2016年公布的 \"2030愿景 \"在2022年获得了巨大的前进动能，预计势头或将延伸到未来十年：为实现“2030愿景”沙特阿拉伯已经推出了价值超过1万亿美元的项目，旨在将该国转变为经济强国。我们估计，到2030年沙特或将支出约9000亿美元（而迄今为止 ，估计已花费500亿美元）。我们认为，韩国和印度的承包商以及奢侈品行业将受益。主题九：多种收入者时代摩根士丹利指出，随着ChatGPT和其他生成式人工智能的快速迭代和发展，开始引出一个问题：未来哪些工作将被取代。从中长期来看，未来的工作需要更大的灵活性：我们认为，现在对工作的追求已经开始转变为寻求多种收入来源。这正在创造一个庞大且不断增长的人群，他们的边际时间将被更好地用于不同的工作从而产生多种收入来源，Z世代的人正在引领这一模式的转变。主题十：肥胖症x社交媒体摩根士丹利认为，Wegovy（肥胖症用药）、Ozempic（降糖药）和semaglutide（减肥药物）正在TikTok短视视频及评论中被大量提及，将会带来针对肥胖症等一系列治疗领域的兴起：我们认为，对肥胖症过多讨论的结果是(1)对药物的了解，从而使得(2)对药物的需求有可能在未来出现指数级传播。我们相信全球针对肥胖症药物的销售额在2030年可以达到500亿美元以上，将使对肥胖症的支出上升到全球治疗领域支出的前12位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951073883,"gmtCreate":1673365716243,"gmtModify":1676538825292,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951073883","repostId":"1129242286","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129242286","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673360880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129242286?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-10 22:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | Alibaba opens higher, Tesla rises more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129242286","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月10日周二，美股小幅低开，但随后拉升，截至发稿三大指数均转涨。美联储鲍威尔在今晚的讲话中表示，美联储的政策是有效的，我们的任务没有出错。阿里巴巴高开，涨约2%。杭州市委书记调研蚂蚁集团，杭州市人民","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, January 10th, U.S. stocks open low slightly, but then rose. As of press time, all three major indexes turned up.<b>The Fed's policies are working and there is nothing wrong with our mission, Fed Powell said in his remarks tonight.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55213d1c864fbf260a9c22a95bbb2b0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Opened higher, up about 2%. Investigation of Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>Hangzhou Municipal People's Government and Alibaba signed a comprehensive deepening strategic cooperation agreement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35609e447b1917b2057ddcbb64dada4d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The new car-making forces collectively rose at the beginning of the session,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>rose by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% at the beginning of the session, and it was reported that Tesla China won 30,000 vehicle orders in three days after announcing the price cut. But Tesla officials did not comment. It is also reported that Tesla's EV factory in Austin, Texas, will begin to expand in size in the coming weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3eeff30d0063f48d0f9768dd5ebdb72\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future fell more than 5% after receiving a notice from the Nasdaq exchange informing the company that it did not meet certain continued listing requirements.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>With a 20% drop, Virgin Orbit admitted on social media that its first satellite launch from Britain failed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home Furnishing</a>Up 7.1%, although the company posted a quarterly loss of about $393 million during the holiday season, it did not indicate it would file for bankruptcy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Downgraded Boeing to hold from overweight, saying there was a lack of potential upside from current levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>Slightly down 1%, with reports<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plans to abandon by 2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>Chip, switch to internal design.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>It fell more than 11% after the company lowered its 2023 guidance and missed market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | Alibaba opens higher, Tesla rises more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | Alibaba opens higher, Tesla rises more than 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-10 22:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, January 10th, U.S. stocks open low slightly, but then rose. As of press time, all three major indexes turned up.<b>The Fed's policies are working and there is nothing wrong with our mission, Fed Powell said in his remarks tonight.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55213d1c864fbf260a9c22a95bbb2b0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Opened higher, up about 2%. Investigation of Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>Hangzhou Municipal People's Government and Alibaba signed a comprehensive deepening strategic cooperation agreement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35609e447b1917b2057ddcbb64dada4d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The new car-making forces collectively rose at the beginning of the session,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>rose by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% at the beginning of the session, and it was reported that Tesla China won 30,000 vehicle orders in three days after announcing the price cut. But Tesla officials did not comment. It is also reported that Tesla's EV factory in Austin, Texas, will begin to expand in size in the coming weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3eeff30d0063f48d0f9768dd5ebdb72\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future fell more than 5% after receiving a notice from the Nasdaq exchange informing the company that it did not meet certain continued listing requirements.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>With a 20% drop, Virgin Orbit admitted on social media that its first satellite launch from Britain failed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home Furnishing</a>Up 7.1%, although the company posted a quarterly loss of about $393 million during the holiday season, it did not indicate it would file for bankruptcy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Downgraded Boeing to hold from overweight, saying there was a lack of potential upside from current levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>Slightly down 1%, with reports<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plans to abandon by 2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>Chip, switch to internal design.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>It fell more than 11% after the company lowered its 2023 guidance and missed market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129242286","content_text":"1月10日周二，美股小幅低开，但随后拉升，截至发稿三大指数均转涨。美联储鲍威尔在今晚的讲话中表示，美联储的政策是有效的，我们的任务没有出错。阿里巴巴高开，涨约2%。杭州市委书记调研蚂蚁集团，杭州市人民政府和阿里巴巴签订全面深化战略合作协议。造车新势力盘初集体走高，小鹏汽车涨超3%，理想汽车、蔚来涨2%。特斯拉盘初涨超2%，消息称在宣布降价后，特斯拉中国三天内获3万辆汽车订单。但特斯拉官方未予置评。另据报道，未来几周，特斯拉位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的电动汽车工厂的规模将开始扩大。法拉第未来跌超5%，此前收到纳斯达克交易所的通知，告知公司不符合某些继续上市要求。维珍轨道大跌20%，维珍轨道在社交媒体承认，首次从英国发射卫星宣告失败。3B家居涨7.1%，尽管公司假日季出现了约3.93亿美元的季度亏损，但没有表示会申请破产。波音跌1.56%，摩根士丹利将波音的评级从增持下调至持有，称从当前水平看缺乏潜在的上升空间。博通微跌1%，有报道称苹果计划到2025年放弃博通芯片，改用内部设计。Illumina跌超11%，此前该公司下调2023年的业绩指引，且低于市场预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953083070,"gmtCreate":1673103706990,"gmtModify":1676538787044,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953083070","repostId":"1118862562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118862562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673056273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118862562?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 09:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"FDA approves 'most promising' new drug to cure Alzheimer's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118862562","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由百健和卫材研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>lecanemab, a monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai and an Alzheimer's drug to slow cognitive decline, is a milestone in the decades-long search for new Alzheimer's treatments and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and the leading cause of death in the United States.</b>On Friday, January 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated the approval of monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, which is still in clinical trials, and Alzheimer's disease drug lecanemab for slowing cognitive decline.</p><p>Eisai, which leads the research and development of the new drug, set the price of the new drug at $26,500 per year in the United States, under the trade name Leqembi.</p><p>The new drug is the second treatment for Alzheimer's that Biogen and Eisai have received early approval in less than two years.</p><p>Just at the end of last year, the Democratic Party of the U.S. House of Representatives released a report saying that the FDA \"improperly\" cooperated with Biogen Biogen, which developed its Alzheimer's treatment drug Aduhelm, before it approved it in 2021. Not only did Aduhelm not significantly improve symptoms clinically, but the FDA was also full of flaws in the approval process.</p><p>The clinical trial results announced by the FDA in November last year showed that lecanemab slowed down the cognitive decline of patients with mild injuries caused by Alzheimer's disease to a certain extent. The FDA's approval was also made accordingly, but this treatment also carries the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p>If a new drug is expected to help patients more effectively than currently clinically used drugs, the FDA will speed up the approval of the new drug. After approval, the new drug can be quickly introduced to the market. The two developing pharmaceutical companies for this drug applied for accelerated approval in July last year.</p><p>The FDA said in a statement:</p><p>Alzheimer's greatly impairs the ability of patients to live and has a devastating impact on their families. This treatment regimen is the latest therapy to target and affect the condition, not just to relieve the symptoms of the disease. More than 6.5 million people in the United States suffer from Alzheimer's disease, which irreversibly destroys patients' memory and thinking ability, and eventually completely loses their execution ability.</p><p>The US Congress has just warned the FDA that the process of approving new drugs is full of flaws</p><p>In late December, the U.S. House of Representatives report said:</p><p>The FDA must act quickly to ensure that its review of drugs for future Alzheimer's disease treatments does not lead to the same doubt about the integrity of the FDA's review. Carolyn Maloney, chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, said:</p><p>I hope these findings serve as a wake-up call for the FDA to reform its practices and call on members of Congress to take action to continue overseeing the pharmaceutical industry to ensure they do not leave patients suffering. An FDA spokesperson said the agency fully cooperated with the investigation:</p><p>One of our jobs is to frequently interact with pharmaceutical companies to ensure we have enough information to inform our regulatory decisions. We will continue to do so because it is in the best interests of our patients. That said, the agency has begun implementing reforms in line with congressional recommendations. What is Lecanemab?</p><p>The latest FDA approval of Lecanemab is a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein called amyloid, which builds up in the brains of people with Alzheimer's. The antibody is given intravenously every two weeks and the dose is determined by the patient's body weight.</p><p>FDA approval of lecanemab is based on the decrease in amyloid plaques observed in clinical trial participants receiving treatment; The untreated participants, the placebo group, had no reduction in amyloid plaques.</p><p><b>The drug is the first to have clearly shown in recent studies that reducing amyloid provides clinical benefits to patients, although doctors say its effects are relatively modest and far from curative. Still, doctors say its approval is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and the leading cause of death in the United States.</b></p><p>Results from the clinical trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine, which was funded by Biogen and Eisai, found that people treated with lecanemab experienced a 27% slower rate of cognitive decline over 18 months compared to those who did not receive treatment.</p><p><b>Although lecanemab may slow cognitive decline to some extent, there are risks associated with this treatment.</b></p><p>Brain swelling occurred in nearly 13% of patients treated with lecanemab, compared to about 2% of those who did not receive treatment. However, most of these symptoms are mild to moderate in severity, do not cause symptoms, and usually resolve within four months. However, about 3% of patients treated with lecanemab had more severe brain swelling, with symptoms including headache, visual impairment and confusion.</p><p>Cerebral hemorrhage occurred in approximately 17% of patients treated with lecanemab compared to 9% of patients who did not receive treatment, and the most common symptom associated with bleeding was dizziness.</p><p>Overall, 14% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced serious adverse reactions in clinical trials, compared to 11% of patients who did not receive treatment.</p><p>Longer clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of lecanemab in patients with early-stage Alzheimer's disease, the study's authors said.</p><p>The FDA said that the prescription information for lecanemab will include warnings about the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FDA approves 'most promising' new drug to cure Alzheimer's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFDA approves 'most promising' new drug to cure Alzheimer's\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-07 09:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>lecanemab, a monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai and an Alzheimer's drug to slow cognitive decline, is a milestone in the decades-long search for new Alzheimer's treatments and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and the leading cause of death in the United States.</b>On Friday, January 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated the approval of monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, which is still in clinical trials, and Alzheimer's disease drug lecanemab for slowing cognitive decline.</p><p>Eisai, which leads the research and development of the new drug, set the price of the new drug at $26,500 per year in the United States, under the trade name Leqembi.</p><p>The new drug is the second treatment for Alzheimer's that Biogen and Eisai have received early approval in less than two years.</p><p>Just at the end of last year, the Democratic Party of the U.S. House of Representatives released a report saying that the FDA \"improperly\" cooperated with Biogen Biogen, which developed its Alzheimer's treatment drug Aduhelm, before it approved it in 2021. Not only did Aduhelm not significantly improve symptoms clinically, but the FDA was also full of flaws in the approval process.</p><p>The clinical trial results announced by the FDA in November last year showed that lecanemab slowed down the cognitive decline of patients with mild injuries caused by Alzheimer's disease to a certain extent. The FDA's approval was also made accordingly, but this treatment also carries the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p>If a new drug is expected to help patients more effectively than currently clinically used drugs, the FDA will speed up the approval of the new drug. After approval, the new drug can be quickly introduced to the market. The two developing pharmaceutical companies for this drug applied for accelerated approval in July last year.</p><p>The FDA said in a statement:</p><p>Alzheimer's greatly impairs the ability of patients to live and has a devastating impact on their families. This treatment regimen is the latest therapy to target and affect the condition, not just to relieve the symptoms of the disease. More than 6.5 million people in the United States suffer from Alzheimer's disease, which irreversibly destroys patients' memory and thinking ability, and eventually completely loses their execution ability.</p><p>The US Congress has just warned the FDA that the process of approving new drugs is full of flaws</p><p>In late December, the U.S. House of Representatives report said:</p><p>The FDA must act quickly to ensure that its review of drugs for future Alzheimer's disease treatments does not lead to the same doubt about the integrity of the FDA's review. Carolyn Maloney, chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, said:</p><p>I hope these findings serve as a wake-up call for the FDA to reform its practices and call on members of Congress to take action to continue overseeing the pharmaceutical industry to ensure they do not leave patients suffering. An FDA spokesperson said the agency fully cooperated with the investigation:</p><p>One of our jobs is to frequently interact with pharmaceutical companies to ensure we have enough information to inform our regulatory decisions. We will continue to do so because it is in the best interests of our patients. That said, the agency has begun implementing reforms in line with congressional recommendations. What is Lecanemab?</p><p>The latest FDA approval of Lecanemab is a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein called amyloid, which builds up in the brains of people with Alzheimer's. The antibody is given intravenously every two weeks and the dose is determined by the patient's body weight.</p><p>FDA approval of lecanemab is based on the decrease in amyloid plaques observed in clinical trial participants receiving treatment; The untreated participants, the placebo group, had no reduction in amyloid plaques.</p><p><b>The drug is the first to have clearly shown in recent studies that reducing amyloid provides clinical benefits to patients, although doctors say its effects are relatively modest and far from curative. Still, doctors say its approval is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and the leading cause of death in the United States.</b></p><p>Results from the clinical trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine, which was funded by Biogen and Eisai, found that people treated with lecanemab experienced a 27% slower rate of cognitive decline over 18 months compared to those who did not receive treatment.</p><p><b>Although lecanemab may slow cognitive decline to some extent, there are risks associated with this treatment.</b></p><p>Brain swelling occurred in nearly 13% of patients treated with lecanemab, compared to about 2% of those who did not receive treatment. However, most of these symptoms are mild to moderate in severity, do not cause symptoms, and usually resolve within four months. However, about 3% of patients treated with lecanemab had more severe brain swelling, with symptoms including headache, visual impairment and confusion.</p><p>Cerebral hemorrhage occurred in approximately 17% of patients treated with lecanemab compared to 9% of patients who did not receive treatment, and the most common symptom associated with bleeding was dizziness.</p><p>Overall, 14% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced serious adverse reactions in clinical trials, compared to 11% of patients who did not receive treatment.</p><p>Longer clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of lecanemab in patients with early-stage Alzheimer's disease, the study's authors said.</p><p>The FDA said that the prescription information for lecanemab will include warnings about the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679266\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb4be1ff4aaa40ac88564f80f173158e","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679266","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118862562","content_text":"由百健和卫材研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开始发生转变。1月6日周五，美国食品和药品管理局（FDA）加速批准尚在临床试验中、由百健（Biogen）和卫材（Eisai）研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab。领导该新药研发的卫材在美国将这种新药的定价设定为每年26500美元，商品名定为Leqembi。这一新药是百健和卫材在不到两年的时间里获得早期批准的第二种治疗阿尔茨海默氏症的药物。就在去年底，美国众议院民主党发布一份报告称，FDA在2021年批准其阿尔茨海默氏症治疗药物Aduhelm之前与研发该药品的百健Biogen“不恰当地”合作，不仅Aduhelm在临床上没有明显改善症状，而且FDA在审批过程中也充满瑕疵。去年11月FDA公布的临床试验结果表明，lecanemab在一定程度上减缓了因阿尔茨海默氏病导致的轻度损伤患者的认知能力下降，FDA的批准也是据此做出的，但这种治疗也存在脑肿胀和出血的风险。如果一种新药有望比当前临床使用的药物更有效地帮助患者，FDA会加快批准新药，获批之后，新药就能迅速推向市场。这款药物的两个开发药厂在去年7月申请加速批准。FDA在一份声明中说：阿尔茨海默氏症极大地削弱了患者的生活能力，并对他们的家庭造成毁灭性的影响。这种治疗方案是针对和影响该病症的最新疗法，而不仅仅是缓解疾病的症状。美国有超过650万人患有阿尔茨海默氏症，该病症会不可逆地破坏患者的记忆力、思维能力，并最终令患者的执行力完全丧失。美国国会刚刚警告FDA批准新药过程充斥瑕疵去年12月底，美国众议院的报告称：FDA必须迅速采取行动，确保其审查未来阿尔茨海默病治疗的药品不会导致对FDA审查的完整性产生同样的怀疑。众议院监督和改革委员会主席Carolyn Maloney说：我希望这些发现能敲响警钟，要求FDA改革其做法，并呼吁国会议员采取行动，继续监督制药行业，以确保他们不会让患者蒙受损失。FDA发言人表示，该机构全力配合调查：我们的工作之一是经常与医药公司互动，以确保我们有足够的信息来为我们的监管决策提供信息。我们将继续这样做，因为这符合患者的最大利益。也就是说，该机构已经开始实施符合国会建议的改革。Lecanemab是什么？FDA最新批准的Lecanemab是一种单克隆抗体，靶向一种称为淀粉样蛋白的蛋白质，这种蛋白质在阿尔茨海默氏症患者的大脑中积聚。该抗体每两周静脉注射一次，剂量由患者体重决定。FDA批准lecanemab是基于在接受治疗的临床试验参与者中观察到的淀粉样斑块减少；未接受治疗的参与者，即安慰剂组，淀粉样斑块没有减少。该药物是第一个在最近的研究中明确表明减少淀粉样蛋白会给患者带来临床益处的药物，尽管医生说它的效果相对适度并且远非治愈。尽管如此，医生们表示，它的批准是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开始发生转变。发表在《新英格兰医学杂志》上的临床试验结果发现，与未接受治疗的人相比，接受lecanemab治疗的人在18个月内的认知能力下降速度减慢了27%，该研究由百健和卫材资助。尽管lecanemab可能会在一定程度上减缓认知能力下降，但这种治疗也存在风险。接受lecanemab治疗的患者中有近13%出现脑肿胀，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例约为2%。 然而，大多数这些症状的严重程度为轻度至中度，不会引起症状，并且通常会在四个月内得到解决。不过，接受lecanemab治疗的患者中约有3%的脑肿胀更严重，症状包括头痛、视力障碍和意识模糊。接受lecanemab治疗的患者中约有17%出现脑出血，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例为9%，与出血相关的最常见症状是头晕。总体而言，接受lecanemab治疗的患者中有14%在临床试验中出现严重不良反应，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例为11%。该研究的作者表示，需要更长时间的临床试验来确定lecanemab在早期阿尔茨海默病患者中的疗效和安全性。FDA则表示，lecanemab的处方信息将包括关于脑肿胀和出血风险的警告。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIIB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953089830,"gmtCreate":1673103643221,"gmtModify":1676538787030,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df15935fcd4975731e3a98dd79ee3803","width":"750","height":"1640"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953089830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959513902,"gmtCreate":1673019964707,"gmtModify":1676538770880,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d68034699f9a1ee5674de029c86de391","width":"750","height":"1568"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959513902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950388650,"gmtCreate":1672673190271,"gmtModify":1676538718187,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950388650","repostId":"1137215289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137215289","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672629766,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137215289?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-02 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137215289","media":"期货日报","summary":"有这样三位投资者，他们的投资生涯几乎横贯了整个20世纪，其中两人还沐浴过21世纪的曙光。他们经历了1929年的大崩盘，又经历了1987年的大恐慌以及1997年的下跌；他们三人加在一起，在熊市和牛市中拥","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There are three investors whose investment careers have spanned almost the entire 20th century, and two of them have been bathed in the dawn of the 21st century.</p><p>They experienced the Great Crash of 1929, the Great Panic of 1987, and the Fall of 1997; Together, the three of them have more than 200 years of experience owning stocks in bear and bull markets.</p><p>The three investors are<b>Philip Carrey, Philip Fisher, and Roy Newberg.</b></p><p>By 1997, Carrie was 100, Fisher 90, and Newberg 94. Back then, you could find them in their respective offices, and the colleague next to their desk was probably their great-grandson.</p><p>These three centuries have each written books, and Kairui wrote Wisdom; Fisher is the author of How to Choose Growth Stocks and How to Get Rich by Stock Market Investment; Newberg is the author of The Advice.</p><p>All four of these books have become monumental works in the investment world, lasting for ages. They have experienced countless bear markets, big and small, and are very close to bear markets. Now, let's listen to their true words in bear markets.</p><p>Carey lived to the age of 101, was born in the same year that the Dow Jones Index was launched (1884), and experienced 31 bull markets, 30 bear markets, 20 recessions and the Great Depression in his life.</p><p>He graduated from Harvard University in 1917 and joined Harvard Business School, flying British warplanes over France at the end of World War I. He impressed people with his intelligence, friendly smile and long-term investment performance.</p><p>In 1927 Kairui came to New York and joined a company. The company manages a mutual fund, for which investors bid $10 per share, and Carey Rui, an internal economist, calculates it to be worth up to $1.</p><p>It topped out at less than $1 a share after the 1929 crash. With the panic and collapse of the market, Kairui survived. He remembers the experience of 1929 most clearly. He believes that \"the 1929 crash was more exciting than horror\".</p><p>Most economists remain bullish, convinced that the decline was short-lived, and few see any clouds on the horizon. By 1932, however, a quarter of the workforce had lost their jobs. On the verge of despair, Carey launched his mutual fund, Vanguard.</p><p>Fifty years later, the Vanguard fund has made its holders wealthy, with a compounded return of up to 13% per year. When he left Vanguard, he managed a private portfolio of $225 million himself. Throughout his investing career, Kairui has almost always been bullish, despite \"underweight\" some stocks in the midst of big declines.</p><p>In 1987, when the Dow fell 500 points in a day, he was speaking in Italy that day, and he said, \"They want to know what is going to happen, and I don't know it myself, and I still don't know it.\"</p><p>Carey believes he will not be more pessimistic than when the Dow was at 7,000 in 1997. \"I didn't do anything about it in my own portfolio,\" he said. \"If the stock price falls, so will the portfolio. I'm 100 years old and I could fail at any time. If I fail at the bottom of the bear market, it will save a lot of estate tax.\"</p><p>Regarding Mr. Kairui's investment record,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Warren Buffett, the esteemed CEO of Wei, praised him for \"setting a record for the best long-term investment in the United States.\"</p><p>Mr. Carey pioneered the concept of \"value investment\" in 1927, and the next year he established the world's first mutual fund-Vanguard Fund. In more than half a century, the fund he managed achieved extraordinary achievements.</p><p>Mr. Carey mainly invests in companies with continuous profit growth and dedicated management, and his investment approach is still adopted by countless professional investors.</p><p>Carey always kept things simple, he founded a remarkable company, and his investment achievements are still the envy of the world today.</p><p><b>Kairui summarizes the \"Twelve Codes\" of speculation</b></p><p><b>I.</b>Hold no fewer than ten types of securities and cover at least five types of industries.</p><p><b>II.</b>Reassess every security held at least semi-annually.</p><p><b>III,</b>Put at least more than half of your money in securities that generate fixed income.</p><p><b>Four,</b>When analyzing any stock, list Dividend yield as the least important factor to consider.</p><p><b>Five,</b>Plead in quickly and don't rush to take profits.</p><p><b>VI.</b>The information of certain securities is not readily available or the time of publication is uncertain, and the capital invested in this part of securities must not exceed 25%.</p><p><b>VII.</b>For \"inside information\", avoid it as much as the plague.</p><p><b>8.</b>Be diligent in finding facts and never seek advice.</p><p><b>IX,</b>Don't pay attention to the stiff formulas for valuing securities.</p><p><b>X,</b>When stock prices are high, interest rates are climbing, and the economy is booming, at least half of your money should be put in short-term bonds.</p><p><b>XI,</b>Try not to borrow money unless the stock price is low, interest rates are falling or going lower, and the boom is in recession.</p><p><b>Twelve,</b>Set aside an appropriate percentage of funds to buy shares and long-term stock options in companies with good prospects.</p><p>He said: \"Rule 10 is an acknowledgement of the cyclical nature of stock market volatility and a compromise between the two trends of long-term speculation. Some people believe that long-term speculators should try to buy stocks when the short market is near the bottom according to the long-swing trading of the stock market, and then sell all their holdings when the long market is near the peak, and put the money in short-term securities, waiting for another short market buy.</p><p>Another group believes that sound common stocks should be bought to hold for the long term, selling only after the outlook of one stock has deteriorated, and switching to other more promising stocks. The ideal plan seems to look for a compromise between the two extremes, and while speculative investors are primarily looking to buy stocks that may increase in value, rather than being interested in the stock market trends themselves, they cannot take for granted the long-term trends of the long and short markets.</p><p>After the long market has developed to a considerable extent, once the foundation of monetary easing begins to be destroyed, speculators should better examine their holdings and consider disposing of most of them. At this time, they must not cling to the original buying cost of securities. \"</p><p>Compared with Carrie, Fisher, born in San Francisco in 1907, was the youngest of many children in their families, and his father was a doctor. He was particularly close to his grandmother. As a child, Fisher knew about the existence of the stock market and the opportunities that stock price movements presented.</p><p>This was because Fisher visited his grandmother one day after school when he was in elementary school, and an uncle was talking to her about the future boom in industry and commerce and the possible impact on stocks.</p><p>\"A whole new world is unfolding before my eyes,\" Fisher said. Although the two discussed for only 10 minutes, Fisher listened with relish. Soon, Fisher started buying and selling stocks. The 1920s was the era of the US stock market frenzy, and Fisher also made a little money. His father, however, was unhappy about his buying and selling stocks, thinking it was just gambling.</p><p>As his father put it, in 1929, Fisher was stuck at the bottom of his passion for \"gambling.\" The man who was later seen as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Hyundai Investments</a>One of the pioneers of theory, the father of growth stock value investment strategy, the godfather investment guru, and one of Wall Street's highly respected and respected investment experts, in that year, he submitted an article entitled \"The Worst Big Short Market in 25 Years Will Unfold\".</p><p>This is his most admirable stock market forecast, but unfortunately he is bearish and long. He said: \"I can't help but be confused by the charm of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some fairly cheap stocks and worthy investments because they weren't up yet.\"</p><p>He put thousands of dollars into three stocks. These three stocks are all low P/E stocks, one is a locomotive company, one is an advertising kanban company, and the other is a taxi company.</p><p>After the stock market collapse, although Fisher predicted that radio stocks would plummet, his three holdings were not much better, and by 1932 he had suffered heavy losses.</p><p>Although this experience convinced him that he should lighten his position in a bear market, he remained fully invested in all the rises and losses for the next 60 years. After the age of 90, he is still an active manager with many big clients.</p><p>Visit companies in their portfolio at least twice a year. He prefers to own six or nine companies, but declined to comment on what shares he owns because he believes it is unfair for clients to disclose them for free.</p><p>Only twice after 1929 did Fisher sense that another Great Recession was coming. In 1987, he issued a bear market alert in his Forbes column. In 1997, he said, I have a feeling that the road we are walking today is somewhere between 1927 and 1929.</p><p>\"Enough people are panicking, so we haven't reached the top yet, but I get upset when I hear talk about this being a new age, a perpetually prosperous highland, and some other bullshit. It's the same comment I heard from another Fisher-Price after the Great Crash of 1929.\"</p><p><b>Fisher's Ten Unrules for Investors</b></p><p><b>I.</b>Don't buy companies that are in the start-up stage.</p><p><b>II.</b>Don't abandon a good stock just because it's not listed for trading.</p><p><b>III,</b>Don't buy a company's stock just because you like the style of its annual report.</p><p><b>Four,</b>Just because a company's P/E ratio is high, don't mean that future earnings growth is roughly reflected in prices.</p><p><b>Five,</b>Don't worry about the baht.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Don't overemphasize diversification.</p><p><b>VII.</b>Don't worry about buying stocks in the shadow of war.</p><p><b>8.</b>Don't forget your Gilbert and Sullivan.</p><p><b>IX,</b>When buying really good growth stocks, don't forget the timing factor in addition to the price.</p><p><b>X,</b>Don't dance with the crowd.</p><p>Fisher said that sometimes it is inevitable that some places in stock investment need luck, but in the long run, good luck and bad luck will offset each other. To continue to succeed, you must rely on skills and good principles. According to Fisher's framework of principles, the belief that the future belongs to those who can discipline themselves and are willing to put in the hard work.</p><p>Newberg, who was born in the United States in 1903, also left Paris for Wall Street in 1929. He was the only person to experience the Great Depression of 1929 and the 1987 stock market crash on Wall Street at the same time.</p><p>When he first arrived on Wall Street, he began his life among brokers and traders. In March of that year, he bought his first stock, but he also sold short shares. At the time, he sold short shares of ABC (RCA), which reached $574 before 1 share split into 5 shares, and there was little reason it would overcorrect its share price.</p><p>Newberg looked to older investors for an explanation, but got no inspiring answer. People all said, \"We are entering an age of broadcasting.\" Newberg predicted a crash once the fuelers made profits, and the stock eventually reached a price of $2.</p><p>Neuberg, meanwhile, made a profit on short selling. Five months later, when the Dow recovered half of its losses, financiers and political leaders declared it an anomaly, predicting a boom soon. \"They were all wrong,\" Newberg later recalled.</p><p>Newberg broke even in this crash and subsequent results, with earnings from short positions equal to his losses from long positions. In 1939 Newberg founded his own company. In 1950, he created the low-commission \"Protector Fund\" and became the father of American open-end funds.</p><p>\"95% of the time\" Newberg is bullish and only occasionally short. The same approach happens in later investment years. \"I hedged my portfolio between 1972 and late 1973,\" Newberg recalls, \"and in 1987,\" I hedged my portfolio after a ridiculous round of price increases. \"</p><p>In 1997, after a ridiculous rally, \"I'm hedging again. At this point, I'm short-selling stock futures, short-selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Short selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>— the most popular drink in the world.”</p><p>Newberg explained that Coca-Cola sales grew only 3% in 1996. \"I can't figure out why people would want to pay at 42 times earnings.\" But he added, \"So far, I'm a fool at this thing, and I should realize that the whole world is addicted to Coca-Cola.\"</p><p><b>Newberg's Top Ten Principles of Investing</b></p><p><b>1. Know yourself</b></p><p>Investor success is built on existing knowledge and experience. You'd better invest professionally in an area you know well, and if you know little or don't analyze the company and the details at all, you'd better stay away from it.</p><p>You should also check whether you are physically and mentally qualified before you actually become an investor. A good body is the basis for your informed judgment, don't underestimate it.</p><p><b>Learning from Successful Investors</b></p><p>Even successful investors, many of whom have had a tough time at the end of the decade. I spoke to many of them, and only a small number of them believed that they would be able to grasp the market in 1996 even as stocks went up and up.</p><p><b>3. \"Sheep Market\" Thinking</b></p><p>The impact of individual investors on a stock sometimes makes it float up or down by 10 percentage points, but that is only for a moment, usually a day, no more than a week. This market is neither bull nor bear.</p><p>I call such markets \"sheep markets\". Sometimes the flock was slaughtered, and sometimes all the wool was cut off. Sometimes it is lucky to escape and keep the wool. The \"sheep market\" is somewhat similar to the fashion industry. Fashion masters design new fashions, second-rate designers imitate it, and thousands of people catch up with it, so the skirts are short and long.</p><p><b>4. Adhere to long-term thinking</b></p><p>Focusing on short-term investment tends to overlook the importance of long-term investment. Enterprises often invest a lot of money in long-term investments, and of course there will be short-term effects at the same time. If the short-term effects take the lead, it will harm the company's development and prospects.</p><p>Profit should be based on long-term investment, effective management and seizing opportunities. If these are arranged well, short-term investments will not dominate.</p><p><b>5. Advance and retreat in time</b></p><p>Timing may not determine everything, but timing can determine many things. Could have been a good long-term investment, but if bought at the wrong time, it would have been bad.</p><p>Sometimes, if you buy a highly speculative stock at the right time, you can also make money. Good securities analysts can do well without following the market trend, but if they follow the trend, it is easier to operate.</p><p>Seizing favorable opportunities is partly intuitive, partly the opposite. The choice of timing depends on one's own independent thinking. In the operation of an economy, an upward trend may be generated in a downward trend, and a recession will begin with a high tide.</p><p>In some periods, ordinary stocks are the best investment, but in another period, perhaps real estate is the best. Everything changes, and people have to learn to change. I have absolutely no belief in the existence of a permanent industry.</p><p><b>Careful Analysis of the Company's Situation</b></p><p>It is necessary to carefully study the company's management, leadership, corporate performance and corporate objectives, especially the real asset status of the company, including: equipment value and net assets per share. This concept was widely valued at the beginning of the century, but has since been almost forgotten.</p><p>If you can control the overall market price of a company, you can make more profit from it.</p><p><b>7. Don't fall in love</b></p><p>In this adventurous world, because of the many possibilities that exist, people become obsessed with an idea, a person, an ideal. In the end, I'm afraid stocks are the ones that can make people obsessed. But it's just a piece of paper to prove your ownership of a business, it's just a symbol of money.</p><p><b>Investment diversification, but no hedging transactions</b></p><p>Hedging is about taking long positions on some stocks and short positions on others. Professionals use hedging trading to avoid risks in the daily market. Sometimes it's just a gamble to enter the market to do hedging trading. I am not in favor of doing this. But there is no law against it either.</p><p>Hedging is indeed a transformation of modern equities. A century ago, when you bought the same stock from the New York and London markets, the difference between cities was only slight. Experts buy a stock from one market and sell it in another, making little money but still making a profit.</p><p><b>Observe the surrounding environment</b></p><p>By environment I mean where the market is going and the environment of the world as a whole. You need to adapt the patterns I gave you to fit the workings of your market.</p><p>Stocks are regardless of seasons, and investing according to a calendar is not necessary. Remember, for investors, it is always risky. For those who enjoy life and enjoy the joy of investing, although the seasons are changeable, opportunities are always available.</p><p><b>10. Don't stick to the rules</b></p><p>It is necessary to change your way of thinking according to the changing situation. My point is that you should take the initiative to change according to changes in economic, political factors. As for technically, sometimes we can control, but sometimes it's outside of our control.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qhrb_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期货日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-02 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There are three investors whose investment careers have spanned almost the entire 20th century, and two of them have been bathed in the dawn of the 21st century.</p><p>They experienced the Great Crash of 1929, the Great Panic of 1987, and the Fall of 1997; Together, the three of them have more than 200 years of experience owning stocks in bear and bull markets.</p><p>The three investors are<b>Philip Carrey, Philip Fisher, and Roy Newberg.</b></p><p>By 1997, Carrie was 100, Fisher 90, and Newberg 94. Back then, you could find them in their respective offices, and the colleague next to their desk was probably their great-grandson.</p><p>These three centuries have each written books, and Kairui wrote Wisdom; Fisher is the author of How to Choose Growth Stocks and How to Get Rich by Stock Market Investment; Newberg is the author of The Advice.</p><p>All four of these books have become monumental works in the investment world, lasting for ages. They have experienced countless bear markets, big and small, and are very close to bear markets. Now, let's listen to their true words in bear markets.</p><p>Carey lived to the age of 101, was born in the same year that the Dow Jones Index was launched (1884), and experienced 31 bull markets, 30 bear markets, 20 recessions and the Great Depression in his life.</p><p>He graduated from Harvard University in 1917 and joined Harvard Business School, flying British warplanes over France at the end of World War I. He impressed people with his intelligence, friendly smile and long-term investment performance.</p><p>In 1927 Kairui came to New York and joined a company. The company manages a mutual fund, for which investors bid $10 per share, and Carey Rui, an internal economist, calculates it to be worth up to $1.</p><p>It topped out at less than $1 a share after the 1929 crash. With the panic and collapse of the market, Kairui survived. He remembers the experience of 1929 most clearly. He believes that \"the 1929 crash was more exciting than horror\".</p><p>Most economists remain bullish, convinced that the decline was short-lived, and few see any clouds on the horizon. By 1932, however, a quarter of the workforce had lost their jobs. On the verge of despair, Carey launched his mutual fund, Vanguard.</p><p>Fifty years later, the Vanguard fund has made its holders wealthy, with a compounded return of up to 13% per year. When he left Vanguard, he managed a private portfolio of $225 million himself. Throughout his investing career, Kairui has almost always been bullish, despite \"underweight\" some stocks in the midst of big declines.</p><p>In 1987, when the Dow fell 500 points in a day, he was speaking in Italy that day, and he said, \"They want to know what is going to happen, and I don't know it myself, and I still don't know it.\"</p><p>Carey believes he will not be more pessimistic than when the Dow was at 7,000 in 1997. \"I didn't do anything about it in my own portfolio,\" he said. \"If the stock price falls, so will the portfolio. I'm 100 years old and I could fail at any time. If I fail at the bottom of the bear market, it will save a lot of estate tax.\"</p><p>Regarding Mr. Kairui's investment record,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Warren Buffett, the esteemed CEO of Wei, praised him for \"setting a record for the best long-term investment in the United States.\"</p><p>Mr. Carey pioneered the concept of \"value investment\" in 1927, and the next year he established the world's first mutual fund-Vanguard Fund. In more than half a century, the fund he managed achieved extraordinary achievements.</p><p>Mr. Carey mainly invests in companies with continuous profit growth and dedicated management, and his investment approach is still adopted by countless professional investors.</p><p>Carey always kept things simple, he founded a remarkable company, and his investment achievements are still the envy of the world today.</p><p><b>Kairui summarizes the \"Twelve Codes\" of speculation</b></p><p><b>I.</b>Hold no fewer than ten types of securities and cover at least five types of industries.</p><p><b>II.</b>Reassess every security held at least semi-annually.</p><p><b>III,</b>Put at least more than half of your money in securities that generate fixed income.</p><p><b>Four,</b>When analyzing any stock, list Dividend yield as the least important factor to consider.</p><p><b>Five,</b>Plead in quickly and don't rush to take profits.</p><p><b>VI.</b>The information of certain securities is not readily available or the time of publication is uncertain, and the capital invested in this part of securities must not exceed 25%.</p><p><b>VII.</b>For \"inside information\", avoid it as much as the plague.</p><p><b>8.</b>Be diligent in finding facts and never seek advice.</p><p><b>IX,</b>Don't pay attention to the stiff formulas for valuing securities.</p><p><b>X,</b>When stock prices are high, interest rates are climbing, and the economy is booming, at least half of your money should be put in short-term bonds.</p><p><b>XI,</b>Try not to borrow money unless the stock price is low, interest rates are falling or going lower, and the boom is in recession.</p><p><b>Twelve,</b>Set aside an appropriate percentage of funds to buy shares and long-term stock options in companies with good prospects.</p><p>He said: \"Rule 10 is an acknowledgement of the cyclical nature of stock market volatility and a compromise between the two trends of long-term speculation. Some people believe that long-term speculators should try to buy stocks when the short market is near the bottom according to the long-swing trading of the stock market, and then sell all their holdings when the long market is near the peak, and put the money in short-term securities, waiting for another short market buy.</p><p>Another group believes that sound common stocks should be bought to hold for the long term, selling only after the outlook of one stock has deteriorated, and switching to other more promising stocks. The ideal plan seems to look for a compromise between the two extremes, and while speculative investors are primarily looking to buy stocks that may increase in value, rather than being interested in the stock market trends themselves, they cannot take for granted the long-term trends of the long and short markets.</p><p>After the long market has developed to a considerable extent, once the foundation of monetary easing begins to be destroyed, speculators should better examine their holdings and consider disposing of most of them. At this time, they must not cling to the original buying cost of securities. \"</p><p>Compared with Carrie, Fisher, born in San Francisco in 1907, was the youngest of many children in their families, and his father was a doctor. He was particularly close to his grandmother. As a child, Fisher knew about the existence of the stock market and the opportunities that stock price movements presented.</p><p>This was because Fisher visited his grandmother one day after school when he was in elementary school, and an uncle was talking to her about the future boom in industry and commerce and the possible impact on stocks.</p><p>\"A whole new world is unfolding before my eyes,\" Fisher said. Although the two discussed for only 10 minutes, Fisher listened with relish. Soon, Fisher started buying and selling stocks. The 1920s was the era of the US stock market frenzy, and Fisher also made a little money. His father, however, was unhappy about his buying and selling stocks, thinking it was just gambling.</p><p>As his father put it, in 1929, Fisher was stuck at the bottom of his passion for \"gambling.\" The man who was later seen as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Hyundai Investments</a>One of the pioneers of theory, the father of growth stock value investment strategy, the godfather investment guru, and one of Wall Street's highly respected and respected investment experts, in that year, he submitted an article entitled \"The Worst Big Short Market in 25 Years Will Unfold\".</p><p>This is his most admirable stock market forecast, but unfortunately he is bearish and long. He said: \"I can't help but be confused by the charm of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some fairly cheap stocks and worthy investments because they weren't up yet.\"</p><p>He put thousands of dollars into three stocks. These three stocks are all low P/E stocks, one is a locomotive company, one is an advertising kanban company, and the other is a taxi company.</p><p>After the stock market collapse, although Fisher predicted that radio stocks would plummet, his three holdings were not much better, and by 1932 he had suffered heavy losses.</p><p>Although this experience convinced him that he should lighten his position in a bear market, he remained fully invested in all the rises and losses for the next 60 years. After the age of 90, he is still an active manager with many big clients.</p><p>Visit companies in their portfolio at least twice a year. He prefers to own six or nine companies, but declined to comment on what shares he owns because he believes it is unfair for clients to disclose them for free.</p><p>Only twice after 1929 did Fisher sense that another Great Recession was coming. In 1987, he issued a bear market alert in his Forbes column. In 1997, he said, I have a feeling that the road we are walking today is somewhere between 1927 and 1929.</p><p>\"Enough people are panicking, so we haven't reached the top yet, but I get upset when I hear talk about this being a new age, a perpetually prosperous highland, and some other bullshit. It's the same comment I heard from another Fisher-Price after the Great Crash of 1929.\"</p><p><b>Fisher's Ten Unrules for Investors</b></p><p><b>I.</b>Don't buy companies that are in the start-up stage.</p><p><b>II.</b>Don't abandon a good stock just because it's not listed for trading.</p><p><b>III,</b>Don't buy a company's stock just because you like the style of its annual report.</p><p><b>Four,</b>Just because a company's P/E ratio is high, don't mean that future earnings growth is roughly reflected in prices.</p><p><b>Five,</b>Don't worry about the baht.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Don't overemphasize diversification.</p><p><b>VII.</b>Don't worry about buying stocks in the shadow of war.</p><p><b>8.</b>Don't forget your Gilbert and Sullivan.</p><p><b>IX,</b>When buying really good growth stocks, don't forget the timing factor in addition to the price.</p><p><b>X,</b>Don't dance with the crowd.</p><p>Fisher said that sometimes it is inevitable that some places in stock investment need luck, but in the long run, good luck and bad luck will offset each other. To continue to succeed, you must rely on skills and good principles. According to Fisher's framework of principles, the belief that the future belongs to those who can discipline themselves and are willing to put in the hard work.</p><p>Newberg, who was born in the United States in 1903, also left Paris for Wall Street in 1929. He was the only person to experience the Great Depression of 1929 and the 1987 stock market crash on Wall Street at the same time.</p><p>When he first arrived on Wall Street, he began his life among brokers and traders. In March of that year, he bought his first stock, but he also sold short shares. At the time, he sold short shares of ABC (RCA), which reached $574 before 1 share split into 5 shares, and there was little reason it would overcorrect its share price.</p><p>Newberg looked to older investors for an explanation, but got no inspiring answer. People all said, \"We are entering an age of broadcasting.\" Newberg predicted a crash once the fuelers made profits, and the stock eventually reached a price of $2.</p><p>Neuberg, meanwhile, made a profit on short selling. Five months later, when the Dow recovered half of its losses, financiers and political leaders declared it an anomaly, predicting a boom soon. \"They were all wrong,\" Newberg later recalled.</p><p>Newberg broke even in this crash and subsequent results, with earnings from short positions equal to his losses from long positions. In 1939 Newberg founded his own company. In 1950, he created the low-commission \"Protector Fund\" and became the father of American open-end funds.</p><p>\"95% of the time\" Newberg is bullish and only occasionally short. The same approach happens in later investment years. \"I hedged my portfolio between 1972 and late 1973,\" Newberg recalls, \"and in 1987,\" I hedged my portfolio after a ridiculous round of price increases. \"</p><p>In 1997, after a ridiculous rally, \"I'm hedging again. At this point, I'm short-selling stock futures, short-selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Short selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>— the most popular drink in the world.”</p><p>Newberg explained that Coca-Cola sales grew only 3% in 1996. \"I can't figure out why people would want to pay at 42 times earnings.\" But he added, \"So far, I'm a fool at this thing, and I should realize that the whole world is addicted to Coca-Cola.\"</p><p><b>Newberg's Top Ten Principles of Investing</b></p><p><b>1. Know yourself</b></p><p>Investor success is built on existing knowledge and experience. You'd better invest professionally in an area you know well, and if you know little or don't analyze the company and the details at all, you'd better stay away from it.</p><p>You should also check whether you are physically and mentally qualified before you actually become an investor. A good body is the basis for your informed judgment, don't underestimate it.</p><p><b>Learning from Successful Investors</b></p><p>Even successful investors, many of whom have had a tough time at the end of the decade. I spoke to many of them, and only a small number of them believed that they would be able to grasp the market in 1996 even as stocks went up and up.</p><p><b>3. \"Sheep Market\" Thinking</b></p><p>The impact of individual investors on a stock sometimes makes it float up or down by 10 percentage points, but that is only for a moment, usually a day, no more than a week. This market is neither bull nor bear.</p><p>I call such markets \"sheep markets\". Sometimes the flock was slaughtered, and sometimes all the wool was cut off. Sometimes it is lucky to escape and keep the wool. The \"sheep market\" is somewhat similar to the fashion industry. Fashion masters design new fashions, second-rate designers imitate it, and thousands of people catch up with it, so the skirts are short and long.</p><p><b>4. Adhere to long-term thinking</b></p><p>Focusing on short-term investment tends to overlook the importance of long-term investment. Enterprises often invest a lot of money in long-term investments, and of course there will be short-term effects at the same time. If the short-term effects take the lead, it will harm the company's development and prospects.</p><p>Profit should be based on long-term investment, effective management and seizing opportunities. If these are arranged well, short-term investments will not dominate.</p><p><b>5. Advance and retreat in time</b></p><p>Timing may not determine everything, but timing can determine many things. Could have been a good long-term investment, but if bought at the wrong time, it would have been bad.</p><p>Sometimes, if you buy a highly speculative stock at the right time, you can also make money. Good securities analysts can do well without following the market trend, but if they follow the trend, it is easier to operate.</p><p>Seizing favorable opportunities is partly intuitive, partly the opposite. The choice of timing depends on one's own independent thinking. In the operation of an economy, an upward trend may be generated in a downward trend, and a recession will begin with a high tide.</p><p>In some periods, ordinary stocks are the best investment, but in another period, perhaps real estate is the best. Everything changes, and people have to learn to change. I have absolutely no belief in the existence of a permanent industry.</p><p><b>Careful Analysis of the Company's Situation</b></p><p>It is necessary to carefully study the company's management, leadership, corporate performance and corporate objectives, especially the real asset status of the company, including: equipment value and net assets per share. This concept was widely valued at the beginning of the century, but has since been almost forgotten.</p><p>If you can control the overall market price of a company, you can make more profit from it.</p><p><b>7. Don't fall in love</b></p><p>In this adventurous world, because of the many possibilities that exist, people become obsessed with an idea, a person, an ideal. In the end, I'm afraid stocks are the ones that can make people obsessed. But it's just a piece of paper to prove your ownership of a business, it's just a symbol of money.</p><p><b>Investment diversification, but no hedging transactions</b></p><p>Hedging is about taking long positions on some stocks and short positions on others. Professionals use hedging trading to avoid risks in the daily market. Sometimes it's just a gamble to enter the market to do hedging trading. I am not in favor of doing this. But there is no law against it either.</p><p>Hedging is indeed a transformation of modern equities. A century ago, when you bought the same stock from the New York and London markets, the difference between cities was only slight. Experts buy a stock from one market and sell it in another, making little money but still making a profit.</p><p><b>Observe the surrounding environment</b></p><p>By environment I mean where the market is going and the environment of the world as a whole. You need to adapt the patterns I gave you to fit the workings of your market.</p><p>Stocks are regardless of seasons, and investing according to a calendar is not necessary. Remember, for investors, it is always risky. For those who enjoy life and enjoy the joy of investing, although the seasons are changeable, opportunities are always available.</p><p><b>10. Don't stick to the rules</b></p><p>It is necessary to change your way of thinking according to the changing situation. My point is that you should take the initiative to change according to changes in economic, political factors. As for technically, sometimes we can control, but sometimes it's outside of our control.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ\">期货日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137215289","content_text":"有这样三位投资者，他们的投资生涯几乎横贯了整个20世纪，其中两人还沐浴过21世纪的曙光。他们经历了1929年的大崩盘，又经历了1987年的大恐慌以及1997年的下跌；他们三人加在一起，在熊市和牛市中拥有股票的经验超过200年。这三位投资者分别是菲利普·凯睿、菲利普·费雪以及罗伊·纽伯格。到1997年的时候，凯睿100岁、费雪90岁、纽伯格94岁。那时，你可以在他们各自的办公室里找到他们，而他们桌子旁边的同事可能是他们的曾孙。这三位世纪老人各自都写过书，凯睿著有《智慧》；费雪著有《怎样选择成长股》和《股市投资致富之道》；纽伯格著有《忠告》。这四本书都成为投资界中的不朽之作，历久而弥新。他们经历了无数个大大小小的熊市，对熊市十分亲密，现在，让我们倾听他们在熊市中的真言。凯睿活到101岁，出生于推出道琼斯指数的同一年(1884年)，一生经历了31次牛市、30次熊市、20次经济衰退以及大萧条时期。他1917年毕业于哈佛大学，并加入了哈佛商学院，在第一次世界大战末期驾驶着英国战机穿梭在法国上空，他的才智、亲切的微笑以及长期投资业绩给人们留下了深刻的印象。1927年凯睿来到纽约，加入一个公司。这个公司管理着一只共同基金，投资者为这只基金每股出价10美元，而作为公司内部的经济学家凯睿计算它最多值1美元。1929年大崩盘后，它每股最高不到1美元。伴随着市场的恐慌和崩溃，凯睿幸存了下来。他对1929年的经历记忆最为清晰。他认为，“1929年大崩盘与其说恐怖，不如说更加令人兴奋”。多数经济学家依然看多，坚信下跌只是短暂的，几乎没有人看到地平线上有任何阴云。可是到1932年，有四分之一的劳动力失去了工作。在快要绝望的情况下，凯睿发起了他的共同基金——先锋基金。50年后，先锋基金使其持有者富有，每年的复合收益率高达13%。当他离开先锋基金后，又自己管理着2.25亿美元的私人投资组合。在凯睿的投资生涯中，尽管他在大幅下跌中“减持”了一些股票，但他几乎总是看多。1987年道指一天下跌了500点，那天，他正在意大利演讲，他说，“他们想知道将会发生什么，我自己也不知道，我现在仍然不知道。”凯睿相信他不会比1997年道指在7000点时更悲观。“在我自己的投资组合里我没有为此做任何事，”他说，“如果股价下跌，投资组合也会下跌。我已经100岁了，随时都有可能失灵。如果我在熊市的底部失灵，将会节约很多遗产税。”对于凯睿先生的投资记录，伯克希尔韦公司受人尊敬的CEO沃伦巴菲特称赞他“创下了美国最好的长线投资纪录”。凯睿先生1927年率先倡导“价值投资”理念，第二年他就成立了全球第一只共同基金——先锋基金，在半个多世纪内，他所管理的这只基金取得了非凡的成就。凯睿先生主要投资那些利润持续增长、管理层乐于奉献的企业，他的这个投资方法仍被无数的专业投资人士所采用。凯睿总是让事情保持简单，他成立了一家卓越的公司，他所取得的投资成就依然受到当今世界的羡慕。凯睿总结了投机的“十二守则”一、持有的证券不要少于十种，涵盖的行业至少为五种。二、至少每半年重新评估所持有的每一种证券。三、至少把一半以上的资金放在能产生固定收益的证券上。四、分析任何股票时，把股息收益率列为最不重要的考虑因素。五、迅速认赔，不要急于获利了结。六、某些证券的资料不容易获得或公布的时间不确定，这部分证券的投入资金绝不能超过25%。七、对于“内线消息”，要像逃避瘟疫一样避之唯恐不及。八、勤于寻找事实，绝不寻求建议。九、不必理会评估证券的呆板公式。十、当股价处在高位、利率攀升、景气繁荣时，至少应该把一半的资金放在短期债券上。十一、尽量不要借钱，除非是股价处在低位、利率下降或走低、景气衰退。十二、拨出适当比例的资金，购买前景良好公司的股票和长期认股权。他说：“第十条规则是承认股市波动的循环性质，也是长期投机两派思潮的妥协。有些人认为长期投机者应该根据股市的长波段交易，设法在空头市场接近底部时购买股票，然后在多头市场接近最高点时卖掉全部持股，并把得到的钱放在短期证券中，等待另一次空头市场的买点。另一派人认为，应该购买健全的普通股长期持有，只有在一只股票的前景变差后才卖掉，转买其他更有希望的股票。理想的计划似乎应该在两个极端之间寻找折中点，虽然投机性投资人主要是想买到可能增值的股票，而不是对股市趋势本身有兴趣，但不能理所当然地忽视多头和空头市场的长期走势。多头市场经过相当程度的发展之后，一旦银根宽松的基础开始毁坏，投机者最好检视自己的持股，考虑处分其中大部分持股，这时绝对不可执着于证券当初的买进成本。”相比于凯睿，1907年生于三藩市的费雪，父母均是各自家中众多儿女中排行最小的，父亲是个医生。他与祖母特别亲近。小时候费雪就知道股票市场的存在以及股价变动带来的机会。这缘于费雪上小学时，有一天下课后去看望祖母，恰好一位伯父正与祖母谈论未来工商业的景气，以及股票可能受到的影响。费雪说：“一个全新的世界展开在我眼前。”两人虽然只讨论了10分钟，但是费雪却听得津津有味。不久，费雪就开始买卖股票。1920年代是美股狂热的年代，费雪亦赚到一点钱。然而他父亲对于其买卖股票的事情很不高兴，认为这只是赌博。一如他父亲所说，1929年，费雪被他所热衷的“赌博”困在谷底。这位后来被视为现代投资理论的开路先锋之一，成长股价值投资策略之父，教父级的投资大师，华尔街极受尊重和推崇的投资专家之一的人，在那一年，曾提交一份《25年来最严重的大空头市场将展开》的文章。这是他最令人赞叹的股市预测，可惜他看空做多。他说：“我免不了被股市的魅力所惑。于是我到处寻找一些还算便宜的股票，以及值得投资的对象，因为它们还没涨到位。”他投入几千美元到3只股票中。这3只股票均是低P／E股，一家是火车头公司，一家是广告看板公司，另一家是出租汽车公司。股市崩溃后，尽管费雪预测无线电股将暴跌，但是他持有的3只股票也好不了多少，到1932年，他的损失极为惨重。尽管这段经历让他相信在熊市中应该减轻仓位，但在这之后的60年中，他在所有的上涨和下跌中都保持满仓投资。他在90岁以后，依然是一个积极的管理者，有很多大客户。每年至少走访在其投资组合中的公司两次。他偏好于拥有6~9个公司，但是对于他拥有什么股票拒绝评论，因为他认为对于客户而言，无偿透露这些股票是不公平的。在1929年后费雪只有两次感觉到另一次大衰退即将到来。1987年，他在《福布斯》的专栏上发布了一次熊市警报。1997年，他说，我有一种感觉，今天我们正走的路就是1927~1929年之间的某个地方。“足够的人感到恐慌，因此我们还没有达到顶部，但是当我听到谈论关于现在是一个新时代，一个永久繁荣的高地，以及其他一些胡扯时，我感到不安。这和我在1929年大崩盘之后从另一个费雪那里听到的评论相同。”费雪的投资人十不原则一、不买处于创业阶段的公司。二、不要因为一只好股票未上市交易，就弃之不顾。三、不要因为你喜欢某公司年报的格调，就去买该公司的股票。四、不要因为一家公司的本益比高，便表示未来的盈余成长已大致反映在价格上。五、不要锱铢计较。六、不要过度强调分散投资。七、不要担心在战争阴影笼罩下买进股票。八、不要忘了你的吉尔伯特和沙利文。九、买进真正优秀的成长股时，除了考虑价格，不要忘了时机因素。十、不要随群众起舞。费雪说，股票投资，有时难免有些地方需要靠运气，但长期而言，好运、倒霉会相抵，想要持续成功，必须靠技能和运用良好的原则。根据费雪的原则架构，相信未来属于那些能够自律且肯付出心血的人。1903年出生于美国的纽伯格也是在1929年离开巴黎来到华尔街的。他是唯一同时在华尔街经历了1929年大萧条和1987年股市崩溃的人。初到华尔街的时候，他开始了在经纪商和交易员中的生活。当年3月份，买了自己的第一只股票，但他也卖空股票。当时他卖空的是美国广播公司（RCA）的股票，这只股票在1股分为5股前价格达到了574美元，并且没有什么原因会导致它过分修正股价。纽伯格找老一点的投资者寻找其解释，没有得到有启发的答案，人们都这样说，“我们正在进入一个广播的时代”。纽伯格预感到一旦推波助澜者获取利润将发生崩盘，最终这只股票的价格达到2美元。与此同时，纽伯格在卖空时赚取了利润。5个月后，当道指恢复其跌幅一半时，金融家和政治领袖们宣布这是一种反常情况，预测繁荣马上就会来临。纽伯格后来回忆道：“他们都错了。”纽伯格在这次大崩盘和后续结果中盈亏平衡，来自空头头寸的盈利与他来自多头头寸的亏损相等。1939年纽伯格创立了自己的公司。1950年创建低佣金的“保护者基金”，为美国开放式基金之父。在“95%的时间”纽伯格是看多的，只有偶尔会做空。同样的手法也发生在以后的投资岁月里。“我在1972~1973年后期对冲了我的投资组合，”纽伯格回忆说，1987年，“我在一轮可笑的价格上涨之后，对投资组合进行了对冲。”1997年，在经历了一轮可笑的上涨之后，“我又一次进行了对冲。在目前这个时点，我卖空股指期货，卖空微软，卖空可口可乐——这个世界上最受欢迎的饮料。”纽伯格解释说，1996年可口可乐销售仅增长3%，“我想不通人们为什么愿意支付42倍市盈率的价格。”但是他又说，“到目前为止，我在这件事上还是个傻瓜，我应该意识到全世界都对可口可乐上瘾。”纽伯格投资十大原则一、了解自己投资者的成功是建立在已有的知识和经验基础上的。你最好在自己熟悉的领域进行专业投资，如果你知之甚少，或者根本没有对公司及细节进行分析，你最好还是离它远点。在你真正成为一名投资者之前，你也应该检查一下身体和精神是否合格。好的身体是你做出明智判断的基础，不要低估它。二、向成功的投资者学习即使是成功的投资者，他们中的许多人也在本世纪末度过了一段艰难时期。我和他们中许多人交谈过，其中只有一小部分人相信，1996年在股票一涨再涨的情况下，他们还能把握市场的形势。三、“羊市”思维个人投资者对一只股票的影响，有时会让它上下浮动10个百分点，但那只是一瞬间，一般是一天，不会超过一个星期。这种市场即非牛市也非熊市。我称这样的市场为“羊市”。有时羊群会遭到杀戮，有时会被剪掉一身羊毛。有时可以幸运地逃脱，保住羊毛。“羊市”与时装业有些类似。时装大师设计新款时装，二流设计师仿制它，成千上万的人追赶它，所以裙子忽短忽长。四、坚持长线思维注重短线投资容易忽略长线投资的重要性。企业经常投入大量资金，进行长线投资，当然同时会有短期效应，如果短期效果占主导作用，那将危害公司的发展和前景。获利应建立在长线投资、有效管理、抓住机遇的基础上。如果安排好这些，短线投资就不会占主要地位。五、及时进退时机可能不能决定所有事情，但时机可以决定许多事情。本来可能是一个好的长线投资，但是如果在错误的时间买入，情况会很糟。有的时候，如果你适时购入一只高投机股票，你同样可以赚钱。优秀的证券分析人可以不追随市场大流而做得很好，但如果顺潮流而动，操作起来就更简单些。把握有利时机一部分是靠直觉，一部分却正相反。时机的选定要靠自己的独立思维。在经济运行中，升势可能在跌势中产生，衰退会从高潮开始。在有的时期，普通股票是最好的投资，但是在另一时期，也许房地产业是最好的。任何事情都在变，人们也要学会变。我完全不信会存在一个永久不变的产业。六、认真分析公司状况必须认真研究公司的管理状况、领导层、公司业绩以及公司目标，尤其需要认真分析公司真实的资产状况，包括：设备价值及每股净资产。这个概念在世纪初曾被广泛重视，但这之后几乎被遗忘了。如果你能控制一家公司的整体市价，你就可以从中获得更多的利润。七、不要陷入情网在这个充满冒险的世界里，因为存在着许多可能性，人们会痴迷于某种想法、某个人、某种理想。最后能使人痴迷的恐怕就算股票了。但它只是一张证明你对一家企业所有权的纸，它只是金钱的一种象征。八、投资多元化，但不做套头交易套头交易就是对一些股票做多头，对另一些股票做空头。专业人士在日常的市场利用套头交易回避风险，有时新入市做套头交易只是一场赌博。我不赞成这样做。但也没有法律禁止它。套头交易的确是现代股票的一项变革，一个世纪以前当你从纽约和伦敦市场购买同一种股票时，城市间的差价只是些微的。专家们从一个市场买进一只股票，又在另一个市场上卖掉它，虽然赚钱很少，但还是有盈利的。九、观察周围环境我所说的环境是指市场走向和整个世界的环境。你需要变通我给你的那些模式，以适应你所在的市场的运作。股票不分季节，按照日历投资是没有必要的。记住，对投资者来讲，任何时候都是冒险的。对享受人生和享受投资快乐的人来说，季节虽多变，但机会随时都有。十、不要墨守成规根据形势的变化改变自己的思维方式是有必要的。我的观点是，你应该主动根据经济、政治因素的变化而变化。至于技术上，有时我们可以控制，但有时却是在我们控制之外的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950381246,"gmtCreate":1672673145086,"gmtModify":1676538718164,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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22:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Russia fights back against \"price limits\" and has warned that it will implement crude oil production cuts and sales bans","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127484622","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"俄罗斯明年将生产至少4.9亿至5亿吨石油，相当于984万至1004万桶/日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ying Zhao</p><p>In the face of the western price limit order, Russia may implement production cuts to counteract.</p><p>On Monday, CCTV News previously reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin will sign a decree today or tomorrow on the Western response to price limits on Russian oil.</p><p>Russia will ban the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries that comply with price caps imposed by Western countries and could cut oil production by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day by early 2023, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said. 500,000-700,000 barrels of production reduction, equivalent to 5%-7% of Russian crude oil production.</p><p>In an interview on Sunday, Novak noted that Russia could increase crude oil exports if the EU ban causes refinery production to decline. If there is a problem with the sale of petroleum products, refining can be replaced to some extent by more oil export volumes. It is still possible that the EU ban will not affect Russian oil refining.</p><p>Novak added that Russia will produce at least 490 million to 500 million tons of oil next year, equivalent to 9.84 million to 10.04 million barrels per day.</p><p>It comes after the European Union placed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil exports to hit Russia's oil revenues. After the agreement takes effect on December 5th, if the price of Russian crude oil exceeds the threshold of $60 per barrel, EU enterprises will be prohibited from providing insurance, financial and other services for Russian crude oil transportation.</p><p>Affected by the above sanctions, Russia's maritime oil exports declined significantly. Crude oil exports from Russia fell by 1.86 million barrels a day in the first full week after the EU's ban on Russian crude came into effect, plunging about 54% to 1.6 million barrels, a new low for the year, according to the data. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports for December have fallen to their lowest level since January 2021 as of Dec. 21.</p><p>Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said in the latest interview that Russia will not supply oil at the price set by the West. Even if the cost keeps rising, it will look for new markets and logistics.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Russia fights back against \"price limits\" and has warned that it will implement crude oil production cuts and sales bans</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRussia fights back against \"price limits\" and has warned that it will implement crude oil production cuts and sales bans\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-26 22:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ying Zhao</p><p>In the face of the western price limit order, Russia may implement production cuts to counteract.</p><p>On Monday, CCTV News previously reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin will sign a decree today or tomorrow on the Western response to price limits on Russian oil.</p><p>Russia will ban the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries that comply with price caps imposed by Western countries and could cut oil production by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day by early 2023, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said. 500,000-700,000 barrels of production reduction, equivalent to 5%-7% of Russian crude oil production.</p><p>In an interview on Sunday, Novak noted that Russia could increase crude oil exports if the EU ban causes refinery production to decline. If there is a problem with the sale of petroleum products, refining can be replaced to some extent by more oil export volumes. It is still possible that the EU ban will not affect Russian oil refining.</p><p>Novak added that Russia will produce at least 490 million to 500 million tons of oil next year, equivalent to 9.84 million to 10.04 million barrels per day.</p><p>It comes after the European Union placed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil exports to hit Russia's oil revenues. After the agreement takes effect on December 5th, if the price of Russian crude oil exceeds the threshold of $60 per barrel, EU enterprises will be prohibited from providing insurance, financial and other services for Russian crude oil transportation.</p><p>Affected by the above sanctions, Russia's maritime oil exports declined significantly. Crude oil exports from Russia fell by 1.86 million barrels a day in the first full week after the EU's ban on Russian crude came into effect, plunging about 54% to 1.6 million barrels, a new low for the year, according to the data. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports for December have fallen to their lowest level since January 2021 as of Dec. 21.</p><p>Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said in the latest interview that Russia will not supply oil at the price set by the West. Even if the cost keeps rising, it will look for new markets and logistics.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678362\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678362","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1127484622","content_text":"作者：赵颖面对西方的限价令，俄罗斯或将实施减产予以反制。周一，据央视新闻此前报道，俄罗斯总统普京将在今天或明天签署一项关于西方对俄罗斯石油限价的应对法令。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯将禁止向遵守西方国家规定的价格上限的国家供应石油和石油产品，并可能在2023年年初每天减产石油50万至70万桶。50-70万桶的减产，相当于俄罗斯原油产量的5%-7%。诺瓦克在周日接受采访时指出，如果欧盟禁令导致炼油厂产量下降，俄罗斯可能会增加原油出口。如果石油产品销售出现问题，炼油在一定程度上可以被更多的石油出口量所取代。欧盟的禁令仍有可能不会影响俄罗斯的炼油。诺瓦克补充说，俄罗斯明年将生产至少4.9亿至5亿吨石油，相当于984万至1004万桶/日。此前，欧盟对俄罗斯海运石油出口设置每桶60美元价格上限，以打击俄罗斯的石油收入。协议12月5日正式生效后，如果俄原油价格超过每桶60美元的门槛，将禁止欧盟企业为俄原油运输提供保险、金融等服务。受上述制裁措施影响，俄罗斯海运石油出口量显著下滑。数据显示，在欧盟对俄罗斯原油禁令生效后的第一个完整的一周内，从俄罗斯出口的原油每天下降186万桶，暴跌约54%，至160万桶，创下今年新低。截至12月21日，俄罗斯12月份海运原油出口量已降至2021年1月以来的最低水平。俄罗斯财政部部长西卢安诺夫在最新的采访中表示，俄罗斯不会按西方设定的价格供应石油，即便成本不断上升，也要寻找新的市场和物流。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925562387,"gmtCreate":1672068145350,"gmtModify":1676538629471,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Do you have the conditions for reunion during the Spring Festival? Zhang Boli responded","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148756326","media":"新华社","summary":"相关准备工作仍需加强，个人防疫意识和措施切不可放松。","content":"<p><div>Author: Zhang Jianxin, Bai Jiali In the past week, the Omicron virus has been coming fiercely, and more and more people have become positive. Can people who have been infected get repeated infections? Is the anti-epidemic Chinese medicine prescription circulating on the Internet reliable? Can Chinese and Western medicines be taken together?... In view of the hot issues of public concern at present, Academician Zhang Boli accepted an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency's \"Xinhua Viewpoint\" reporter. Hotspot 1: The number of infected people in some cities such as Beijing has increased significantly, but the situation in other cities is relatively stable. What is the reason for this difference? Zhang Boli: This difference is related to Beijing's large population and high density, which has led to the faster spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, the current round of Beijing...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"XHS1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Do you have the conditions for reunion during the Spring Festival? 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Zhang Boli responded\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新华社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-14 17:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Author: Zhang Jianxin, Bai Jiali In the past week, the Omicron virus has been coming fiercely, and more and more people have become positive. Can people who have been infected get repeated infections? Is the anti-epidemic Chinese medicine prescription circulating on the Internet reliable? Can Chinese and Western medicines be taken together?... In view of the hot issues of public concern at present, Academician Zhang Boli accepted an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency's \"Xinhua Viewpoint\" reporter. Hotspot 1: The number of infected people in some cities such as Beijing has increased significantly, but the situation in other cities is relatively stable. What is the reason for this difference? Zhang Boli: This difference is related to Beijing's large population and high density, which has led to the faster spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, the current round of Beijing...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">新华社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02dee44c1d24aa837c7fbef3689d297","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148756326","content_text":"作者：张建新、白佳丽近一周来，奥密克戎病毒来势汹汹，越来越多的人中招变阳。感染过的人会不会反复感染？网上流传的抗疫中药方靠谱吗？中药西药能一起吃吗？……针对当下公众关心的热点问题，张伯礼院士接受了新华社“新华视点”记者的专访。热点一：北京等一些城市感染者数量明显增加，但另外一些城市情况较平稳，导致这种差异的原因是什么？张伯礼：这种差异与北京人口多、密度大有关，导致疫情传播速度更快。同时，北京本轮疫情的主要毒株是奥密克戎BF.7毒株，与奥密克戎其他变异株相比具有更强的传染性和免疫逃逸能力。这种变异株主要在上呼吸道复制，这意味着感染者容易在说话、咳嗽时造成病毒的传播，进一步促进了病毒的传播。此外，北方寒冷，又值感冒、流感的高发季，更加深了疫情严重的印象。热点二：感染过新冠的人会不会反复感染？张伯礼：有些传染病，确实在一次感染后会获得持久甚至终身免疫，比如水痘。而新冠病毒感染与之不同，通过对国内外奥密克戎疫情的观察可以得出结论，由于新冠病毒不断发生变异，且有较强免疫逃逸能力，当前流行的奥密克戎毒株具有多个亚型，人体对奥密克戎不同亚型难以建立全面的免疫屏障，在感染新冠病毒之后，少数人有可能还会再次被感染，这方面还需开展更多的研究。二次感染的情况是因人而异的，要根据感染者当时的免疫力和病毒的强弱程度来考量。一般而言，二次感染与首次感染的症状没有太大区别。如果感染了同一个亚型的病毒，二次感染的症状会轻于首次感染。因此，即使感染康复后个人防护措施仍应当坚持。热点三：很多人关心新冠后遗症的问题，这种担忧有必要吗？张伯礼：是否称为“后遗症”“长新冠”还可以讨论。部分患者在康复期确实还存在一些症状，没有完全恢复。原始毒株和德尔塔毒株所致的感染大约有10%的患者转阴后有此类症状存在。但目前初步观察，奥密克戎毒株引发新冠这类症状风险显著降低，无症状感染者基本无新冠后遗症。奥密克戎感染不可怕，绝大多数感染者可在7-10天内完全恢复。对于新冠“后遗症”，不用过度担忧和恐慌。但由于感染者基数大，患者治愈后出现的一些持续症状，还需要进一步观察研究。中医讲“瘥后防复”。我们在武汉总结的经验是早期康复、综合康复、自我康复，用中药、针灸、推拿以及传统功法等，能够促进患者愈后，改善乏力、气短等症状。延续新冠康复的经验，发挥中医药在康复方面的特色优势，不断优化康复路径和方法，采取积极的干预措施，让治愈者的身心达到更好的状态。热点四：中药西药是否可以一起吃？张伯礼：当前应当呼吁广大民众理性用药、合理用药，切忌病急乱投医以及过量用药。如果被感染，西药退烧药与中药感冒药尽量不要同服，如服用连花清瘟、金花清感、宣肺败毒颗粒等有退热功效的中成药，就不再联合服用布洛芬或对乙酰氨基酚了。其他中药西药如服用也应间隔1小时，避免互相影响。当然若是服用了感冒类中药，但咽痛明显，可以加服六神丸、清咽滴丸等对症药。同时应把握“中病即止”原则，症状消失后及时停止用药。中药感冒药也尽量只选一种服用，没必要两三种一起服用，这类药多含有清热解毒类的苦寒药，叠加使用易伤脾胃，不利于愈后。西药退烧药同样如此，选用一种即可，避免联合用药，要注意每日服用剂量不要超标，否则可能会对肝脏带来损伤。热点五：现在网上流传着很多预防或治疗新冠的中药方，以及一些所谓“很灵”的食补方，您怎么看？张伯礼：根据中医“三因制宜”的原则，不同的地域、不同的人群、不同的季节防治疾病的方剂都有所不同，需因时因人因地裁方用药，食补也是同样道理。网上流传的这些中药方可能对一部分人起效，但不一定对其他人群有效，甚至有反作用。建议药方、食补方宜在中医师指导下合理使用。对患者而言，多喝水，多吃富含维C的水果、新鲜蔬菜，注意休息，保障睡眠都是重要的。热点六：接下来疫情感染的走势会怎样？张伯礼：根据目前国内形势，奥密克戎毒株已在社会面传播，又值冬季流感、普通感冒的高发季，接下来1至2个月会迎来一波流行高峰。新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，我国预防与治疗相结合，中西医并重，中西药并用，新冠肺炎重症率和病亡率保持在较低水平。但随着感染基数的不断增大，重症感染者人数也将大概率出现增长。国家有关部门已经部署医疗单位，加强重症救治的床位及医务人员培训工作。尽管新冠病毒呈现致病力减弱的趋势，奥密克戎变异株依然对老年人和有严重基础性疾病人群的健康产生较大威胁，如何在流行高峰期保护好这些人群是接下来疫情防控的重点工作。热点七：今年春节具备大家团圆过节的条件吗？张伯礼：国务院联防联控机制“新十条”的发布，让有乡愁的人们有了回家过年的盼头。团圆是中国人对春节最大的期盼，将心比心，将疫情防控工作与暖心服务更好地结合起来，也是我国疫情防控政策优化调整的方向。在疫情新形势下，相信疫情防控部门和各地政府也都在未雨绸缪，因地制宜制定返乡政策，今年大概率是个团圆年。但春运人员迁徙传播风险较高，相关准备工作仍需加强，个人防疫意识和措施切不可放松。热点八：近期不少人因为觉得可能被感染处于焦虑中，您想对他们说什么？张伯礼：中医常讲七情致病，恐慌焦虑等不良情绪可能导致人体免疫力下降，积极的心态对于预防和治疗疾病都具有非常大的好处，应以变应变。与第一代病毒、德尔塔病毒致病性不同，现在奥密克戎感染致病力较弱。平常得感冒、流感不紧张，现在也没有必要紧张，尤其是年轻人更不用紧张。在日常生活中要坚持过去行之有效的防控措施，保持社交距离，正确佩戴口罩，做好手部消毒，注意室内通风，不聚集，少聚餐，规律作息，保证睡眠，防护措施到位，能够对新冠起到有效的预防作用。积极做好情绪平复工作，自我调适，进行如读书、八段锦、太极拳等一些活动，以放松身心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9093225911,"gmtCreate":1643642938514,"gmtModify":1676533839494,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093225911","repostId":"1176041035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176041035","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1643611390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176041035?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-31 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed tightening storm hits, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176041035","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment rate mean that the storms of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet in the United States will set off a frenzy, fast and fast.</p><p>The Fed's interest rate meeting in January released a strong hawkish signal, which not only opened the prelude to rate hike, but also followed by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that there was no progress on the supply chain, which shows that he is very worried about inflation, and high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>At present, Wall Street banks are expected to start a rate hike in March, raise interest rates four times in the whole year, and start a shrinking balance sheet around July. How far should the Fed's balance sheet of up to $9 trillion shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom of the stock market?</b>Up to now, the S&P 500 has dropped nearly 10% from its high, and the Nasdaq 100 has also dropped more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of austerity has spillover effects all over the world. Even in China, which started its policy easing, A-shares actually fell below 3,400 points last Monday.</p><p>Many U.S. stock traders told the author that due to the restriction of ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (that is, the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls), which has been tried and tested in the past decade or so, has gradually failed, and the strategy of \"buying on dips\" may withdraw from the historical stage.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline of U.S. stocks, there is likely to be a technical rebound in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline in the future. 4818 points of S&P 500 may be the highest level in the past two years. At present, some traders even give a target level of 3,800 points for the market outlook.</p><p><b>Austerity storm hits</b></p><p>Powell showed an eagle posture at the press conference that started at 3: 00 a.m. on January 27th, Beijing time. Compared with the moderate monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish, and risk assets fell in response. The three major U.S. stock indexes turned from rising to falling.</p><p>He reiterated that he would quickly withdraw from the quantitative easing plan, while also hinting that it is likely that rate hike will be launched as soon as the next March meeting.</p><p>Some of the highlights from the press conference are as follows: wages are growing rapidly; Inflation remains well above the long-term target and has a broader reach; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would come soon; Powell does not rule out a rate hike at every FOMC meeting; Interest rates have considerable upside; FOMC intends to rate hike at March meeting; The Fed's balance sheet is much larger than necessary; Inflation risk remains upward; Inflation is likely to remain high for longer than expected.</p><p>Some traders mentioned to the author that they need to be alert to the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50bp in March. Just as after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at a time to carry out unexpected policy regulation. The resilience of the job market provides ample room for rate hike without causing a recession. \"It is expected that the US GDP growth rate will be around 5%, and growth may slow down, but it will not be to the extent of negative growth and recession.\"</p><p>The just-released preliminary GDP value of the United States in the fourth quarter showed that the economic growth rate was 6.9%, higher than the expected value of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. One important piece of information to note is the sub-measure of inflation known as the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the measure rose to 7% from a previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data is the initial value of personal consumption index and core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, while the expected value and the previous value were both 5.4% respectively. The core personal consumption index, the most favored inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and in the future, due to the high oil price and persistent supply chain problems, it is difficult for inflation to go down in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it is not tightened, the Federal Reserve will face huge political and social pressure. After all, the prices of box lunch and milk in the United States have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. stocks are far from finished falling</b></p><p>Restricted by ultra-high inflation, the \"put options\" of the central bank, which have been tried and tested for more than ten years, have gradually lapsed, and U.S. stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" of the rising stock market under low interest rates for more than ten years has accumulated, and the decline will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>\"I think the market will continue to fall, but since we have now entered the oversold range, we can't rule out a rebound in the process of decline, but I don't think it will continue.\" Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author, \"Rising interest rates will lead to an increase in the discount rate of cash in the future, which will lead to pressure on valuation and impact on the profit margins of growth technology companies. In addition, although the earnings have not been revised downward, the earnings results are only in line with expectations or slightly exceed expectations, and the performance guidance is weaker than expected. This series of factors will cause growth technology stocks to continue to fall.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>(Netflix)' s guidance fell short of expectations. The market expected the number of new subscribers to increase by more than 5 million, but in fact, it only increased by 2.85 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The performance is in line with expectations, but it is expected that the revenue of cloud computing business in the first quarter will decline;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The released results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will still run through 2022 or affect shipments. Although the performance of the big companies that the market pays attention to is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why the share price once plummeted when Microsoft's results were released, and so did Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 index is also not optimistic. \"I think the S&P 500 index has further downside room. Today, the stock index just stays near the 200-day moving average. I think it will fall further, and it may look to 3,800 points in the future, which is also the 50% retraction from the lowest point in the autumn of 2020 to the highest point in early January 2022,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The key is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, causing the already high inflation to face upward pressure again. There is no shortage of institutions that expect that oil prices are likely to break the $100 mark amid the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and even without this important factor, falling inventories will cause oil prices to climb.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry said: \"Oil prices will still have upside, especially considering the tension between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC's output can't climb. It may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but it is more likely in the second and third quarters, when crude oil demand will also climb.\"</p><p><b>At present, tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have intensified, and last week the two sides said they would negotiate further within two weeks, but this period could still cause huge uncertainty.</b>The U.S. secretary of state previously warned that \"if Russia sends one more force into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The British Foreign Office estimates that about 100,000 Russian servicemen are now massing at the border.</p><p>International asset management institutions believe that the more likely scenario is to reach a diplomatic response, and a full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes that the reasons lie in: severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union; Cancellation of Nord Stream 2 via Ukraine; May permanently shift the EU away from Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of total energy consumption in Western Europe, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia seems to be at too much risk economically to make this gamble. The more likely scenario, therefore, is to reach a diplomatic response: Russia will withdraw its troops if NATO promises to halt political and military engagement with Ukraine, and if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is allowed to enter EU countries. This could provide immediate relief from high energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if there is an armed conflict? Global oil supply will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect a 2.3 million barrels per day drop in oil supply, which would push oil prices to almost double to around $150 per barrel, dropping global GDP by 1.6%. This will put tremendous upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks are likely to preemptively raise policy rates, thus dampening the economic rebound.</p><p>But in fact, from an investment perspective, regardless of what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices elevated, while severe supply disruptions that could result from military action will only further drive energy prices higher.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Downward movement of the A-femur center</b></p><p><b>Looking at the Chinese stock market, the US currency tightened and US stocks fell. China's currency is loose, but A shares are falling more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>From January to date (January 26), the CSI 300 Index is down 4.6%. However, the institutional people interviewed by the author generally believe that in February, it is recommended to stay calm and not rush to add positions.</p><p>According to AVIC Trust, in December last year, the economic data fell short of expectations, with a sharp negative growth in real estate investment, sales, new construction and other indicators, and a decline in consumption growth. From January to February, facing the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics, the epidemic prevention and control situation is more serious, and consumption will be weak. Real estate is in the off-season, and difficult housing enterprises are difficult to improve, which continues to drag down the economy. The bright spot of the macro economy is still in foreign trade. In the first quarter, import and export will follow the trend of last year and continue to maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the decline of economic growth rate will lead to the continued decline of corporate profit growth rate in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened. In January, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repo rate were lowered by 10BP. In the fourth quarter of last year, monetary easing was a small fight, but this year's monetary policy has made a clear shift. However, the fiscal efforts have to wait for the \"two sessions\". The fiscal lag leads to the lack of \"focus point\" in the monetary policy efforts in the first quarter, and there is nowhere to use it. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will start a rate hike in March, and there may be 3-4 rate hike during the year, which will also offset some domestic easing effects.</p><p>At present, the incremental funds of A shares are also insufficient. The issuance of Public Offering of Fund has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, and the newly issued Public Offering of Fund in January was only 60-70 billion. In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of quantitative products was poor, and it was redeemed by investors.<b>In 2021, northbound funds flowed into A shares substantially, but in the context of the CSRC's strict supervision of \"fake foreign capital\", it is expected that the scale of northbound capital inflows this year will be weaker than last year.</b>The transition period of the new asset management regulations has ended, and the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is coming to an end, and the incremental sources of funds in the stock market have decreased.</p><p>Take the new energy track stocks with a large pullback/retracement recently as an example. At present, investment institutions pay more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but if it was given 50-60 times or even hundreds of times before, there must be irrational elements, and the possibility of subsequent valuation killing will increase. \"As for whether it is worth it now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>It is not difficult to judge-the prosperity has not changed now. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then you can get 30% of the room to make money. If it only goes back to 40 times, then the room to make money by buying is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed tightening storm hits, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed tightening storm hits, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-31 14:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment rate mean that the storms of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet in the United States will set off a frenzy, fast and fast.</p><p>The Fed's interest rate meeting in January released a strong hawkish signal, which not only opened the prelude to rate hike, but also followed by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that there was no progress on the supply chain, which shows that he is very worried about inflation, and high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>At present, Wall Street banks are expected to start a rate hike in March, raise interest rates four times in the whole year, and start a shrinking balance sheet around July. How far should the Fed's balance sheet of up to $9 trillion shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom of the stock market?</b>Up to now, the S&P 500 has dropped nearly 10% from its high, and the Nasdaq 100 has also dropped more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of austerity has spillover effects all over the world. Even in China, which started its policy easing, A-shares actually fell below 3,400 points last Monday.</p><p>Many U.S. stock traders told the author that due to the restriction of ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (that is, the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls), which has been tried and tested in the past decade or so, has gradually failed, and the strategy of \"buying on dips\" may withdraw from the historical stage.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline of U.S. stocks, there is likely to be a technical rebound in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline in the future. 4818 points of S&P 500 may be the highest level in the past two years. At present, some traders even give a target level of 3,800 points for the market outlook.</p><p><b>Austerity storm hits</b></p><p>Powell showed an eagle posture at the press conference that started at 3: 00 a.m. on January 27th, Beijing time. Compared with the moderate monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish, and risk assets fell in response. The three major U.S. stock indexes turned from rising to falling.</p><p>He reiterated that he would quickly withdraw from the quantitative easing plan, while also hinting that it is likely that rate hike will be launched as soon as the next March meeting.</p><p>Some of the highlights from the press conference are as follows: wages are growing rapidly; Inflation remains well above the long-term target and has a broader reach; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would come soon; Powell does not rule out a rate hike at every FOMC meeting; Interest rates have considerable upside; FOMC intends to rate hike at March meeting; The Fed's balance sheet is much larger than necessary; Inflation risk remains upward; Inflation is likely to remain high for longer than expected.</p><p>Some traders mentioned to the author that they need to be alert to the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50bp in March. Just as after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at a time to carry out unexpected policy regulation. The resilience of the job market provides ample room for rate hike without causing a recession. \"It is expected that the US GDP growth rate will be around 5%, and growth may slow down, but it will not be to the extent of negative growth and recession.\"</p><p>The just-released preliminary GDP value of the United States in the fourth quarter showed that the economic growth rate was 6.9%, higher than the expected value of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. One important piece of information to note is the sub-measure of inflation known as the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the measure rose to 7% from a previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data is the initial value of personal consumption index and core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, while the expected value and the previous value were both 5.4% respectively. The core personal consumption index, the most favored inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and in the future, due to the high oil price and persistent supply chain problems, it is difficult for inflation to go down in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it is not tightened, the Federal Reserve will face huge political and social pressure. After all, the prices of box lunch and milk in the United States have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. stocks are far from finished falling</b></p><p>Restricted by ultra-high inflation, the \"put options\" of the central bank, which have been tried and tested for more than ten years, have gradually lapsed, and U.S. stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" of the rising stock market under low interest rates for more than ten years has accumulated, and the decline will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>\"I think the market will continue to fall, but since we have now entered the oversold range, we can't rule out a rebound in the process of decline, but I don't think it will continue.\" Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author, \"Rising interest rates will lead to an increase in the discount rate of cash in the future, which will lead to pressure on valuation and impact on the profit margins of growth technology companies. In addition, although the earnings have not been revised downward, the earnings results are only in line with expectations or slightly exceed expectations, and the performance guidance is weaker than expected. This series of factors will cause growth technology stocks to continue to fall.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>(Netflix)' s guidance fell short of expectations. The market expected the number of new subscribers to increase by more than 5 million, but in fact, it only increased by 2.85 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The performance is in line with expectations, but it is expected that the revenue of cloud computing business in the first quarter will decline;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The released results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will still run through 2022 or affect shipments. Although the performance of the big companies that the market pays attention to is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why the share price once plummeted when Microsoft's results were released, and so did Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 index is also not optimistic. \"I think the S&P 500 index has further downside room. Today, the stock index just stays near the 200-day moving average. I think it will fall further, and it may look to 3,800 points in the future, which is also the 50% retraction from the lowest point in the autumn of 2020 to the highest point in early January 2022,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The key is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, causing the already high inflation to face upward pressure again. There is no shortage of institutions that expect that oil prices are likely to break the $100 mark amid the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and even without this important factor, falling inventories will cause oil prices to climb.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry said: \"Oil prices will still have upside, especially considering the tension between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC's output can't climb. It may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but it is more likely in the second and third quarters, when crude oil demand will also climb.\"</p><p><b>At present, tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have intensified, and last week the two sides said they would negotiate further within two weeks, but this period could still cause huge uncertainty.</b>The U.S. secretary of state previously warned that \"if Russia sends one more force into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The British Foreign Office estimates that about 100,000 Russian servicemen are now massing at the border.</p><p>International asset management institutions believe that the more likely scenario is to reach a diplomatic response, and a full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes that the reasons lie in: severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union; Cancellation of Nord Stream 2 via Ukraine; May permanently shift the EU away from Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of total energy consumption in Western Europe, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia seems to be at too much risk economically to make this gamble. The more likely scenario, therefore, is to reach a diplomatic response: Russia will withdraw its troops if NATO promises to halt political and military engagement with Ukraine, and if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is allowed to enter EU countries. This could provide immediate relief from high energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if there is an armed conflict? Global oil supply will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect a 2.3 million barrels per day drop in oil supply, which would push oil prices to almost double to around $150 per barrel, dropping global GDP by 1.6%. This will put tremendous upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks are likely to preemptively raise policy rates, thus dampening the economic rebound.</p><p>But in fact, from an investment perspective, regardless of what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices elevated, while severe supply disruptions that could result from military action will only further drive energy prices higher.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Downward movement of the A-femur center</b></p><p><b>Looking at the Chinese stock market, the US currency tightened and US stocks fell. China's currency is loose, but A shares are falling more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>From January to date (January 26), the CSI 300 Index is down 4.6%. However, the institutional people interviewed by the author generally believe that in February, it is recommended to stay calm and not rush to add positions.</p><p>According to AVIC Trust, in December last year, the economic data fell short of expectations, with a sharp negative growth in real estate investment, sales, new construction and other indicators, and a decline in consumption growth. From January to February, facing the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics, the epidemic prevention and control situation is more serious, and consumption will be weak. Real estate is in the off-season, and difficult housing enterprises are difficult to improve, which continues to drag down the economy. The bright spot of the macro economy is still in foreign trade. In the first quarter, import and export will follow the trend of last year and continue to maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the decline of economic growth rate will lead to the continued decline of corporate profit growth rate in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened. In January, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repo rate were lowered by 10BP. In the fourth quarter of last year, monetary easing was a small fight, but this year's monetary policy has made a clear shift. However, the fiscal efforts have to wait for the \"two sessions\". The fiscal lag leads to the lack of \"focus point\" in the monetary policy efforts in the first quarter, and there is nowhere to use it. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will start a rate hike in March, and there may be 3-4 rate hike during the year, which will also offset some domestic easing effects.</p><p>At present, the incremental funds of A shares are also insufficient. The issuance of Public Offering of Fund has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, and the newly issued Public Offering of Fund in January was only 60-70 billion. In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of quantitative products was poor, and it was redeemed by investors.<b>In 2021, northbound funds flowed into A shares substantially, but in the context of the CSRC's strict supervision of \"fake foreign capital\", it is expected that the scale of northbound capital inflows this year will be weaker than last year.</b>The transition period of the new asset management regulations has ended, and the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is coming to an end, and the incremental sources of funds in the stock market have decreased.</p><p>Take the new energy track stocks with a large pullback/retracement recently as an example. At present, investment institutions pay more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but if it was given 50-60 times or even hundreds of times before, there must be irrational elements, and the possibility of subsequent valuation killing will increase. \"As for whether it is worth it now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>It is not difficult to judge-the prosperity has not changed now. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then you can get 30% of the room to make money. If it only goes back to 40 times, then the room to make money by buying is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75adecb2c4a2991eb1db80f007a7b5f8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176041035","content_text":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。紧缩风暴来袭鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。美股远未跌完受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”| 纳斯达克100指数他提及，此前奈飞（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；微软的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；特斯拉发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。A股中枢下移转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不值得买，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036298332,"gmtCreate":1647097498484,"gmtModify":1676534194780,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036298332","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will welcome the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market is expecting this meeting to kick off the curtain of rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to \"land the boots\", shrinking balance sheet still has to wait and see</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear estimate of expected policy action.</p><p>The consumer price index (CPI) hit a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly ahead of this year's estimate of 7.8%, according to the Fed's preferred metric. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, ahead of expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he also expects the Fed to make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that interest rate expectations have fluctuated significantly and are likely to continue as the data comes out, which could exacerbate the volatility of interest rate markets and yield curves, said Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the start of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term rates rising sharply in anticipation of a tightening by the Federal Reserve, while longer-term yields have risen less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is seen as an important indicator. Curve inversion, particularly when 2-year or shorter U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but a rapid flattening of the curve could reflect concerns that aggressive Fed tightening could send the economy into recession. Others offered a more modest explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting market expectations that a swift Fed reaction would help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment be reversed?</p><p>Will the rate hike of the Federal Reserve \"boots land\" soon, which will boost the recent volatile global market?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the near term. Unlike in 2019, when governments imposed tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He also fears another wave of Covid could be triggered by Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades.</p><p>On a three-month benchmark, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth, Josh said. Bond yields are likely to move slightly higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so he said global stock markets haven't bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stocks, particularly the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, he said, meaning the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of a 30-year bond. He said: \"The rising short-term inflation combined with sanctions will cause great damage to demand. By then, the decline in bond yields will bring a boost effect to U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will welcome the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market is expecting this meeting to kick off the curtain of rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to \"land the boots\", shrinking balance sheet still has to wait and see</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear estimate of expected policy action.</p><p>The consumer price index (CPI) hit a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly ahead of this year's estimate of 7.8%, according to the Fed's preferred metric. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, ahead of expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he also expects the Fed to make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that interest rate expectations have fluctuated significantly and are likely to continue as the data comes out, which could exacerbate the volatility of interest rate markets and yield curves, said Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the start of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term rates rising sharply in anticipation of a tightening by the Federal Reserve, while longer-term yields have risen less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is seen as an important indicator. Curve inversion, particularly when 2-year or shorter U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but a rapid flattening of the curve could reflect concerns that aggressive Fed tightening could send the economy into recession. Others offered a more modest explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting market expectations that a swift Fed reaction would help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment be reversed?</p><p>Will the rate hike of the Federal Reserve \"boots land\" soon, which will boost the recent volatile global market?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the near term. Unlike in 2019, when governments imposed tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He also fears another wave of Covid could be triggered by Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades.</p><p>On a three-month benchmark, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth, Josh said. Bond yields are likely to move slightly higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so he said global stock markets haven't bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stocks, particularly the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, he said, meaning the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of a 30-year bond. He said: \"The rising short-term inflation combined with sanctions will cause great damage to demand. By then, the decline in bond yields will bring a boost effect to U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"ESmain":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPY":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927799234,"gmtCreate":1672584710528,"gmtModify":1676538707528,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927799234","repostId":"1192361274","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052192373,"gmtCreate":1655134034892,"gmtModify":1676535567856,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052192373","repostId":"2243019507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243019507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪海内外最新宏观政策和经济走势，分享来自莫尼塔宏观团队的最新观点。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"钟正生经济分析","id":"70","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b"},"pubTimestamp":1655095529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243019507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 12:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243019507","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially started to shrink its balance sheet in June, the money market interest rate was generally stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and it planned to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion each month, which would increase to $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article tries to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet process, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operation in the last round of shrinking balance sheet was more cautious. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals when interest rates are cut at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, 2 months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background when the Fed shrank the balance sheet this time is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Unemployment in the United States is currently lower compared to 2017, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from that of the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that in the 22-month period from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 15.7%. According to the shrinking balance sheet plan of the Federal Reserve this time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will decline by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressure intensifies, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its pace of shrinking the balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have some substitution. If the inflationary pressure in the United States eases, in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy, the Federal Reserve may also slow down its shrinking pace.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone great changes, especially the reverse repurchase agreement on the liability side and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the liquidity disturbance of the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the asset side, the proportion of MBS with great uncertainty in scale change has decreased, which reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Second,</b>The scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit of interest rate, which means that the market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock in shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the second half of the year, thus releasing certain liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Fourth,</b>The introduction of standing repurchase facility can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence and reduce the probability of liquidity shortage.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although the initial market liquidity of the shrinking balance sheet may not be too disturbed, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet should not be underestimated from the perspective of its impact on asset prices</b>。 Since the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate returned from-0.90% on March 1st to 0.34% on May 10th, which reflects the impact of the market being further included in the shrinking balance sheet. The rise of US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion every month, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $95 billion every month after three months. This is in line with the results of the discussion in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet, only that it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it nearly reaches the \"adequate level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article tries to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the Last Round of Fed Monetary Policy Normalization</b></p><p>After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. With the steady recovery of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and started the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to make a certain review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve began in May 2013. Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in a speech that \"if the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down its asset purchase in a future meeting\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to inadequate communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant volatility, namely \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced the Taper schedule, and QE was cut month by month from January to October 2014 and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve started its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It didn't start its second rate hike until December 2016, and since then it continuously raised its policy interest rate.</p><p><b>Focus on the shrinking balance sheet operation in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>As the Fed's rate hike process deepens, shrinking balance sheet is also on the agenda. Starting from October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of $6 billion and $4 billion per month, and increase them by $6 billion and $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed shrinking balance sheet pace peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve preferred to mitigate the impact of liquidity tightening on financial markets through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the interest rate meeting in July 2019, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop its shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, which was two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid interest rate cuts being carried out at the same time as shrinking balance sheet and sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in response to sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target interest rate by 0.25%. As the Fed has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when downward pressure on the economy increases and policy interest rates need to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet has to \"give way\" to interest rate cuts.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to show a shortage of liquidity.</b>After the global financial crisis, with the launch of three rounds of QE, the interest rate control mechanism of the Federal Reserve has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" System to an unconventional \"interest rate Floor System\". In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will run between the two. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, Federal Funds rate began to break through the IOR as the upper limit. \"Money shortage\" incidents occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system gradually moved towards the verge of failure. In the minutes of the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in July 2019, it was specifically mentioned that the reduction of reserves brought by the shrinking balance sheet led to large fluctuations in short-end interest rates, which also indicated that liquidity in the U.S. money market had begun to appear in shortage at that time. In October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market was still relatively strong during the whole shrinking balance sheet, and it was not significantly impacted.</b>In the nearly one year since the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although there was a short correction in the stock market after that, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The US manufacturing PMI began to drop significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continued to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks also began to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects of the Fed's monetary policy, compared with the start of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background when the Fed shrank the balance sheet this time is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Unlike the low inflation, low unemployment rate at the beginning of 2017, the U.S. currently has lower unemployment but higher inflation against a backdrop where labor participation has not fully recovered. The U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-over-year in March 2022, a new high in nearly 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as the decline in inventory replenishment demand and the sharp increase in trade deficit, the U.S. GDP fell by 1.4% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines the different pace of this Fed shrinking balance sheet.</b>After Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013, and it didn't end until October 2014. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the time of shrinking had reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in order to cope with increasing inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has accelerated. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is greatly accelerated compared with before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May indicated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1st, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion every month, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $95 billion every month after three months. Not only is the initial shrinking balance sheet scale and pace much higher than that of the previous round (USD 10 billion/month, increasing by USD 10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet scale is also higher than that of the previous round of USD 50 billion per month.<b>The change in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will make the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve decline at a faster rate in this round: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve decreased by about 700 billion US dollars, or 15.7%. According to the shrinking balance sheet plan of the Federal Reserve this time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will decline by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at a historically low position. Therefore, if the inflationary pressure in the United States intensifies, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its pace of shrinking the balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering the influence of \"temporary factors\" such as the decline in inventory investment and the increase in imports, the annual rate of the US economy fell by 1.4% in the first quarter. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks, there is still debate, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of combination boxing. Therefore, if the inflationary pressure in the United States eases in the follow-up, the Federal Reserve may also slow down its pace of shrinking the balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it approaches the 'sufficient level'\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The balance sheet structure and policy instruments of the Federal Reserve are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Fed's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from a discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the asset side, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly the securities assets it holds, that is, all kinds of Treasury Bond and MBS purchased by it during the expansion of the table, accounting for nearly 95%; From the liability side, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, Treasury deposits and reverse repurchase agreements, accounting for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, accounting for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion USD. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the difference between the liability side of the current balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October, 2017, the general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Treasury in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were USD 185.1 billion and USD 374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of the liabilities in the last round of balance sheet reduction, mainly through the decline of reserves. However, up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion USD, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion USD, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy instruments of the Federal Reserve have changed greatly, the disturbance of liquidity in shrinking balance sheet may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the asset side, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty when shrinking the sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of reduction of Treasury Bond is basically certain. However, there may be certain uncertainties in the reduction process of MBS. This primarily stems from: 1) the existence of an early repayment possibility with MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of the operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is long, and the time interval between the receipt of the principal (resulting in a decrease in the holdings) and the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in the holdings) can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of the reduction scale of Treasury Bond. However, the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the maximum scale of the Fed's holdings reduction was $60 billion in Treasury Bond and $35 billion in MBS per month, and MBS accounted for a lower proportion of the holdings reduction, which means that the uncertainty of this round of shrinking balance sheet is relatively low.</p><p><b>Second, from the liability side, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity shock brought by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The reverse repurchase tool of the Federal Reserve is similar to the positive repurchase of the central bank of China. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time, so as to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, in order to obtain stable income, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, the interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement becomes the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to some extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? Firstly</b>For banks, there is a cost in holding reserves. When the size of reserves held by banks increases, the size of their overall balance sheets will also expand, which in turn brings higher capital supervision requirements, so the willingness of banks to hold reserves will not grow indefinitely.<b>Secondly</b>The proceeds of banks holding reserves come from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds in the Federal Reserve to obtain interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the gains of an arbitrage trade. Around the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, while at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly dropped the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity is accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also indicates that liquidity is currently more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower bounds of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculate the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP rates, respectively, representing the distance of short-term interest rates from the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR is smaller, which means that the short-end interest rate is closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-end interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liability end of the Fed's balance sheet was mostly bank reserves. However, the current large increase in the scale of reverse repo agreements and the closer approach of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) to the lower limit of interest rates all show that the liquidity of both banks and non-bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recycles liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of its bond holdings on the asset side of its balance sheet declines; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction of the scale of reverse repurchase agreement (instead of the reduction of reserve scale like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thus reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase of the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinkage. Similar to the role of China's fiscal deposits, the changes of general deposits of the U.S. Treasury Department will also disturb market liquidity. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, although the scale of general deposits (TGA) of the Treasury Department in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total scale basically remained below 400 billion USD; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing by issuing Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching a daily amount of nearly $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, the size of the TGA declined rapidly with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the ceiling, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise financing through bond issuance. The balance of TGA account kept declining, once falling to less than $60 billion, releasing a lot of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the US government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond, and the size of TGA accounts had exceeded $900 billion at the end of April.<b>Looking forward, the U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury may slowly fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the second half of the year, which will release some liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool also reduces the probability of liquidity shortage.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortages in the U.S. financial market, and the spot interest rate has continuously exceeded the ceiling of the federal funds target interest rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, the EFFR was once higher than the deposit reserve interest rate by 20BP; In March 2020, the \"money shortage\" broke out again in the US financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents the future borrowing cost, once rose to the high point since 2008, and the repurchase operation of the New York Fed was continuously oversubscribed. The frequent liquidity shortage has aroused the concern of the Federal Reserve: in July 2021, in order to solve the possible liquidity shortage in the process of monetary policy normalization, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"for a rainy day\". The instrument allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve at a certain interest rate, typically set as the upper end of the federal funds target rate, using Treasury Bond, ABS, or MBS as collateral.</p><p><b>SRF tools function mainly through two channels: one is</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is plenty of liquidity. When liquidity began to tighten, some financial institutions were willing to borrow money from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing the short-end interest rate to break through the IOR as the upper limit of interest rates. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thus reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve depressed short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>Second,</b>The introduction of the SRF instrument has strengthened the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, which in turn reduces the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. As a result, the instrument can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the federal funds target rate range.</p><p><b>In addition, the use of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can successfully raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF instruments will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trend and the risk of \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's follow-up shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of \"combination boxing\" between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. The more important difference is that, from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreement, the liquidity of the US financial market is excessively abundant at present. With the possible decline of the general deposit scale of the subsequent Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, the impact of this Fed shrinking balance sheet on market liquidity may be less than before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the next interest rate cut.</b>In the past balance sheet operations, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that the target interest rate of federal funds is the main means of adjusting its monetary policy position. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by CME FedWatch Tool, the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the US economy increases afterwards, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and to maintain the main position of interest rate measures in monetary policy, shrinking balance sheet will probably \"die\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although the initial market liquidity of shrinking balance sheet may not be too disturbed, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced the upcoming shrinking balance sheet in early May, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds jumped from 0.07% on May 4th to 0.34% on May 10th (while the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds on March 1st was only-0.90%), which reflects the influence of the market being further included in the shrinking balance sheet. During the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plunge sharply. U.S. stocks also showed a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: The international geopolitical conflict is uncertain, the inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the United States economy exceeds expectations, and the policy tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/70\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">钟正生经济分析 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-13 12:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially started to shrink its balance sheet in June, the money market interest rate was generally stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and it planned to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion each month, which would increase to $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article tries to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet process, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operation in the last round of shrinking balance sheet was more cautious. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals when interest rates are cut at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, 2 months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background when the Fed shrank the balance sheet this time is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Unemployment in the United States is currently lower compared to 2017, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from that of the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that in the 22-month period from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 15.7%. According to the shrinking balance sheet plan of the Federal Reserve this time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will decline by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressure intensifies, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its pace of shrinking the balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have some substitution. If the inflationary pressure in the United States eases, in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy, the Federal Reserve may also slow down its shrinking pace.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone great changes, especially the reverse repurchase agreement on the liability side and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the liquidity disturbance of the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the asset side, the proportion of MBS with great uncertainty in scale change has decreased, which reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Second,</b>The scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit of interest rate, which means that the market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock in shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the second half of the year, thus releasing certain liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Fourth,</b>The introduction of standing repurchase facility can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence and reduce the probability of liquidity shortage.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although the initial market liquidity of the shrinking balance sheet may not be too disturbed, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet should not be underestimated from the perspective of its impact on asset prices</b>。 Since the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate returned from-0.90% on March 1st to 0.34% on May 10th, which reflects the impact of the market being further included in the shrinking balance sheet. The rise of US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion every month, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $95 billion every month after three months. This is in line with the results of the discussion in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet, only that it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it nearly reaches the \"adequate level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article tries to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the Last Round of Fed Monetary Policy Normalization</b></p><p>After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. With the steady recovery of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and started the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to make a certain review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve began in May 2013. Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in a speech that \"if the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down its asset purchase in a future meeting\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to inadequate communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant volatility, namely \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced the Taper schedule, and QE was cut month by month from January to October 2014 and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve started its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It didn't start its second rate hike until December 2016, and since then it continuously raised its policy interest rate.</p><p><b>Focus on the shrinking balance sheet operation in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>As the Fed's rate hike process deepens, shrinking balance sheet is also on the agenda. Starting from October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of $6 billion and $4 billion per month, and increase them by $6 billion and $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed shrinking balance sheet pace peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve preferred to mitigate the impact of liquidity tightening on financial markets through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the interest rate meeting in July 2019, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop its shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, which was two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid interest rate cuts being carried out at the same time as shrinking balance sheet and sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in response to sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target interest rate by 0.25%. As the Fed has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when downward pressure on the economy increases and policy interest rates need to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet has to \"give way\" to interest rate cuts.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to show a shortage of liquidity.</b>After the global financial crisis, with the launch of three rounds of QE, the interest rate control mechanism of the Federal Reserve has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" System to an unconventional \"interest rate Floor System\". In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will run between the two. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, Federal Funds rate began to break through the IOR as the upper limit. \"Money shortage\" incidents occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system gradually moved towards the verge of failure. In the minutes of the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in July 2019, it was specifically mentioned that the reduction of reserves brought by the shrinking balance sheet led to large fluctuations in short-end interest rates, which also indicated that liquidity in the U.S. money market had begun to appear in shortage at that time. In October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market was still relatively strong during the whole shrinking balance sheet, and it was not significantly impacted.</b>In the nearly one year since the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although there was a short correction in the stock market after that, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The US manufacturing PMI began to drop significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continued to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks also began to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects of the Fed's monetary policy, compared with the start of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background when the Fed shrank the balance sheet this time is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Unlike the low inflation, low unemployment rate at the beginning of 2017, the U.S. currently has lower unemployment but higher inflation against a backdrop where labor participation has not fully recovered. The U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-over-year in March 2022, a new high in nearly 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as the decline in inventory replenishment demand and the sharp increase in trade deficit, the U.S. GDP fell by 1.4% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines the different pace of this Fed shrinking balance sheet.</b>After Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013, and it didn't end until October 2014. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the time of shrinking had reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in order to cope with increasing inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has accelerated. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is greatly accelerated compared with before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May indicated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1st, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion every month, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $95 billion every month after three months. Not only is the initial shrinking balance sheet scale and pace much higher than that of the previous round (USD 10 billion/month, increasing by USD 10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet scale is also higher than that of the previous round of USD 50 billion per month.<b>The change in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will make the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve decline at a faster rate in this round: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve decreased by about 700 billion US dollars, or 15.7%. According to the shrinking balance sheet plan of the Federal Reserve this time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will decline by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at a historically low position. Therefore, if the inflationary pressure in the United States intensifies, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its pace of shrinking the balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering the influence of \"temporary factors\" such as the decline in inventory investment and the increase in imports, the annual rate of the US economy fell by 1.4% in the first quarter. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks, there is still debate, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of combination boxing. Therefore, if the inflationary pressure in the United States eases in the follow-up, the Federal Reserve may also slow down its pace of shrinking the balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it approaches the 'sufficient level'\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The balance sheet structure and policy instruments of the Federal Reserve are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Fed's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from a discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the asset side, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly the securities assets it holds, that is, all kinds of Treasury Bond and MBS purchased by it during the expansion of the table, accounting for nearly 95%; From the liability side, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, Treasury deposits and reverse repurchase agreements, accounting for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, accounting for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion USD. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the difference between the liability side of the current balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October, 2017, the general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Treasury in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were USD 185.1 billion and USD 374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of the liabilities in the last round of balance sheet reduction, mainly through the decline of reserves. However, up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion USD, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion USD, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy instruments of the Federal Reserve have changed greatly, the disturbance of liquidity in shrinking balance sheet may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the asset side, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty when shrinking the sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of reduction of Treasury Bond is basically certain. However, there may be certain uncertainties in the reduction process of MBS. This primarily stems from: 1) the existence of an early repayment possibility with MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of the operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is long, and the time interval between the receipt of the principal (resulting in a decrease in the holdings) and the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in the holdings) can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of the reduction scale of Treasury Bond. However, the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the maximum scale of the Fed's holdings reduction was $60 billion in Treasury Bond and $35 billion in MBS per month, and MBS accounted for a lower proportion of the holdings reduction, which means that the uncertainty of this round of shrinking balance sheet is relatively low.</p><p><b>Second, from the liability side, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity shock brought by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The reverse repurchase tool of the Federal Reserve is similar to the positive repurchase of the central bank of China. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time, so as to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, in order to obtain stable income, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, the interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement becomes the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to some extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? Firstly</b>For banks, there is a cost in holding reserves. When the size of reserves held by banks increases, the size of their overall balance sheets will also expand, which in turn brings higher capital supervision requirements, so the willingness of banks to hold reserves will not grow indefinitely.<b>Secondly</b>The proceeds of banks holding reserves come from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds in the Federal Reserve to obtain interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the gains of an arbitrage trade. Around the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, while at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly dropped the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity is accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also indicates that liquidity is currently more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower bounds of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculate the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP rates, respectively, representing the distance of short-term interest rates from the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR is smaller, which means that the short-end interest rate is closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-end interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liability end of the Fed's balance sheet was mostly bank reserves. However, the current large increase in the scale of reverse repo agreements and the closer approach of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) to the lower limit of interest rates all show that the liquidity of both banks and non-bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recycles liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of its bond holdings on the asset side of its balance sheet declines; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction of the scale of reverse repurchase agreement (instead of the reduction of reserve scale like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thus reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase of the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinkage. Similar to the role of China's fiscal deposits, the changes of general deposits of the U.S. Treasury Department will also disturb market liquidity. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, although the scale of general deposits (TGA) of the Treasury Department in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total scale basically remained below 400 billion USD; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing by issuing Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching a daily amount of nearly $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, the size of the TGA declined rapidly with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the ceiling, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise financing through bond issuance. The balance of TGA account kept declining, once falling to less than $60 billion, releasing a lot of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the US government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond, and the size of TGA accounts had exceeded $900 billion at the end of April.<b>Looking forward, the U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury may slowly fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the second half of the year, which will release some liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool also reduces the probability of liquidity shortage.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortages in the U.S. financial market, and the spot interest rate has continuously exceeded the ceiling of the federal funds target interest rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, the EFFR was once higher than the deposit reserve interest rate by 20BP; In March 2020, the \"money shortage\" broke out again in the US financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents the future borrowing cost, once rose to the high point since 2008, and the repurchase operation of the New York Fed was continuously oversubscribed. The frequent liquidity shortage has aroused the concern of the Federal Reserve: in July 2021, in order to solve the possible liquidity shortage in the process of monetary policy normalization, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"for a rainy day\". The instrument allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve at a certain interest rate, typically set as the upper end of the federal funds target rate, using Treasury Bond, ABS, or MBS as collateral.</p><p><b>SRF tools function mainly through two channels: one is</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is plenty of liquidity. When liquidity began to tighten, some financial institutions were willing to borrow money from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing the short-end interest rate to break through the IOR as the upper limit of interest rates. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thus reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve depressed short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>Second,</b>The introduction of the SRF instrument has strengthened the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, which in turn reduces the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. As a result, the instrument can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the federal funds target rate range.</p><p><b>In addition, the use of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can successfully raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF instruments will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trend and the risk of \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's follow-up shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of \"combination boxing\" between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. The more important difference is that, from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreement, the liquidity of the US financial market is excessively abundant at present. With the possible decline of the general deposit scale of the subsequent Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, the impact of this Fed shrinking balance sheet on market liquidity may be less than before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the next interest rate cut.</b>In the past balance sheet operations, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that the target interest rate of federal funds is the main means of adjusting its monetary policy position. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by CME FedWatch Tool, the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the US economy increases afterwards, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and to maintain the main position of interest rate measures in monetary policy, shrinking balance sheet will probably \"die\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although the initial market liquidity of shrinking balance sheet may not be too disturbed, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced the upcoming shrinking balance sheet in early May, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds jumped from 0.07% on May 4th to 0.34% on May 10th (while the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds on March 1st was only-0.90%), which reflects the influence of the market being further included in the shrinking balance sheet. During the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plunge sharply. U.S. stocks also showed a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: The international geopolitical conflict is uncertain, the inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the United States economy exceeds expectations, and the policy tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243019507","content_text":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得警惕。核心观点2022年5月4日，美联储宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后增加到950亿美元。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。回顾上一轮美联储的缩表过程，可以发现：1）由于缺乏有效的参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，美联储并不急于大规模缩减其资产负债表，从引导紧缩到缩表步伐都相对缓慢；2）为了避免降息与缩表同时进行发出不同的政策信号，并缓解金融市场流动性短缺的情况，美联储于2019年8月提前停止了缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年相比，目前美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。这决定了本次美联储缩表的目的与以往不同，且节奏相对更快。我们估算，2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将表现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍较为强劲，若通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到加息与缩表具有一定替代性。若美国通胀压力有所缓和，为了避免经济“硬着陆”，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐。目前美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具出现了较大变化，尤其是负债端逆回购协议、财政部一般存款的规模和占比明显提升，这使得缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。一是，从资产端来看，规模变化存在较大不确定性的MBS占比下降，使得缩表的不确定性降低。二是，逆回购协议规模大幅上升、短端利率更接近利率下限，意味着市场流动性比上一轮缩表开始前更为充裕，为缩表的流动性冲击提供了更厚的缓冲垫。三是，随着美国财政政策逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的影响。四是，常备回购便利工具的推出可以在一定条件下提供流动性，并稳定市场信心，降低流动性短缺发生的概率。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。自5月美联储议息会议来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其实际利率从3月1日的-0.90%回归至5月10日的0.34%，即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。美债利率的攀升成为美股调整的重要催化。2022年5月4日，美联储公布5月FOMC议息会议声明，宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。这符合3月会议纪要讨论结果，但并未明确缩表终点，只表示将在快达到“充足水平”时减缓缩表节奏。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。一上一轮美联储货币政策正常化回顾2008年全球金融危机爆发后，为应对经济衰退，美联储推出了零利率、量化宽松等一系列非常规货币政策工具。而随着美国经济趋于稳定复苏，美联储于2013年末正式启动Taper，并在2017年10月开启缩表。而这也是美联储实施非常规货币政策以来唯一的一次缩表操作。因此，有必要对上一轮美联储货币政策正常化进行一定的回顾。美联储上一轮货币政策的正常化始于2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克在一次演讲中表示“如果发现美国就业市场持续好转，美联储可能在今后的某一次会议中开始逐步放慢购买资产的速度”，向市场传递了Taper信号。但由于与市场沟通并不充分，金融市场出现了显著波动，即“缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）”。2013年12月，美联储议息会议宣布Taper时间表，2014年1-10月逐月削减并最终结束QE。2015年12月，美联储开启了金融危机后的首次加息，但在仅加息25BP后就“浅尝辄止”,直至2016年12月才开始第二次加息，并在此后连续上调政策利率。重点观察上一轮美联储货币政策正常化中的缩表操作。随着美联储加息进程的深入，缩表也被提上日程。2017年10月开始，美联储决定以每月60亿美元、40亿美元的速度缩减其持有的国债、MBS，并在之后的12个月内按照每三个月增加60亿美元、40亿美元的速度递增。直到一年后的2018年10月，美联储缩表速度才达到每月500亿美元（300亿美元国债+200亿美元MBS）的峰值。这或许反映出，由于缺乏有效参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，当时的美联储更希望通过缓慢的、渐进式的缩表，减轻流动性收紧对金融市场的冲击。不过，2019年8月美联储提前停止了缩表。2019年7月议息会议上，美联储宣布将从当年8月起停止缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。我们认为，当时美联储停止缩表，主要有两方面原因： 一是，为了避免降息与缩表同时进行、发出不同政策信号。2019年8月议息会议上，为了应对低迷的通胀以及全球增长放缓的压力，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%。正如美联储反复指出的，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段。言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。因此，当经济下行压力加大，政策利率需要下调时，缩表要“让位”于降息。二是，货币市场开始出现流动性紧缺的情况。全球金融危机后伴随三轮QE的推出，美联储的利率调控机制已经从危机前的“利率走廊”体系（Corridor System）转变为非常规的“利率地板”体系（Floor System）。在“利率地板”体系中，存款准备金利率（IOR）作为利率上限，隔夜逆回购协议（ONRRP）操作利率则为利率下限，在流动性充裕时，联邦基金利率（EFFR）将在二者之间运行。但自2019年中开始，随着流动性的不断缩减，联邦基金利率开始突破作为上限的IOR，“钱荒”事件频发，“利率地板”体系逐渐走向失效边缘。2019年7月美联储议息会议纪要中特别提到，缩表带来的准备金减少导致短端利率大幅波动，也表明当时美国货币市场流动性已开始出现短缺。而在2019年10月美联储的声明中表示，为确保准备金充足，美联储将进行定期回购操作，以向市场注入流动性，降低货币市场风险。虽然上一轮缩表后期出现流动性紧缺，但整个缩表期间美国股市表现仍然较为强劲，并未受到明显冲击。上一轮缩表开始后的近一年时间里，美国股市延续了之前的上涨趋势，2017年10月初至2018年9月末，标普500指数涨幅达到15.2%。虽然之后股市出现短暂回调，但主要是由基本面的转弱所致，美国制造业PMI自2018年四季度开始明显回落。2019年初开始，随着美联储不断释放“鸽派”信号，美股也开始反弹。二本次美联储缩表的背景与目的不同从美联储货币政策关注的两大方面——增长与就业来看，与2017年10月开启缩表相比，本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年初的低通胀、低失业率不同，目前在劳动参与率尚未完全恢复的背景下，美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。2022年3月美国CPI同比达到8.5%，创下近40年来新高。并且，在补库存需求下滑、贸易逆差大幅增长等短期因素冲击下，2022年一季度美国GDP环比折年率下滑1.4%，经济开始出现滞胀迹象。高通胀的背景决定了本次美联储缩表的节奏不同。2013年5月时任美联储主席伯南克释放Taper信号后，2013年末美联储才真正开启Taper，直到2014年10月Taper才结束，此后又过了一年多的时间美联储才开始加息，从开始Taper到缩表之间的时滞更是达到了46个月，且开始缩表时的美国联邦基准利率已经达到1.25%-1.50%。但是，为了应对不断加剧的通胀压力，本轮美联储缩表的节奏要快于以往。从2021年下半年释放Taper信号开始，美联储的货币政策正常化进程便不断加速。本轮美联储货币政策正常化中，从开启Taper到缩表之间的时间间隔仅有半年左右，紧缩节奏较之前大大加快。美联储5月议息会议纪要表示将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。不仅初始缩表规模、节奏远高于上一轮（100亿美元/月，每三个月增加100亿美元），每月最大缩表规模亦高于上一轮的每月500亿美元。缩表规模与节奏的变化将使得本轮美联储资产负债表将以更快的比例下降：2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约7000亿美元，降幅15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将呈现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍然较为强劲，失业率、领取失业金人数等均处于历史较低位置。因此，若美国通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月其加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到美国经济在库存投资回落、进口大增等“暂时性因素”的影响下，一季度环比折年率下滑1.4%。不管对于这些是否属于暂时性冲击仍存争议，但市场和美联储对美国经济“硬着陆”的担忧无疑都是在增加的。况且，加息与缩表具有一定替代性，美联储亦会细加权衡组合拳的效应。因此，若后续美国通胀压力有所缓和，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐，以减小货币政策紧缩对经济的冲击。这也符合美联储5月议息会议上“将在快达到‘充足水平’时减缓缩表节奏”的模糊表述。三本次美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具不同研究美联储的缩表操作离不开对其资产负债表的讨论。从资产端来看，美联储的资产主要是持有的证券资产，即其在扩表时购买的各类国债、MBS等，占比接近95%；从负债端来看，美联储的负债包括现金、银行准备金、财政部存款以及逆回购协议，以上四项占比超过99%，尤其是银行准备金，占比超过40%。从资产端来看，与2017年10月相比，美联储持有的国债占比明显提升，而MBS占比相对较低。其中，国债在美联储总资产中的占比由2017年10月的55.3%上升至4月末的64.5%，目前持有规模约5.7万亿美元。而MBS在美联储总资产中的占比则由39.7%下降至30.4%，但规模也超过了2.7万亿美元。与2017年相比，当前美联储资产负债表负债端的差异更为明显，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比明显提升。2017年10月上一轮缩表开始时，美联储负债中的财政部一般存款、逆回购协议规模分别为1851亿美元、3749亿美元，占总负债的比重为4.2%、7.9%，而银行准备金占比超过50%，这也导致上一轮缩表时负债端的下降主要通过准备金规模下降实现的。但截至目前，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比均有明显提升，其中财政部一般存款规模达到9574亿美元，占比10.8%，逆回购协议规模更是达到2.09万亿美元，占比23.5%，二者之和已经接近准备金规模。由于美联储目前资产负债表结构以及政策工具均出现了较大变化，缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。 一是，从资产端来看，MBS占比下降使得缩表时的不确定性降低。对于国债来说，由于其到期日、到期规模可知，因而国债的减持步调基本是确定的。但是，MBS的减持过程可能存在一定不确定在。这主要来源于：1） MBS存在提前偿付的可能性，借款人在出售房屋或为抵押贷款再融资时，可以选择随时偿还任何额外的抵押贷款本金；2）从操作流程上看，MBS再投资的时间间隔较长，从收到本金（导致持有量减少）到相应的新 MBS 被添加到资产负债表（导致持有量增加）之间的时间间隔最长可达三个月 。在上一轮缩表时，MBS的占比较高，减持规模相对更高，达到了国债减持规模的2/3。但今年5月美联储议息会议显示，本轮缩表中美联储减持规模最多为每月600亿美元国债、350亿美元MBS，MBS在减持中的占比更低，这意味着本轮缩表的不确定性相对更低。二是，从负债端看，逆回购协议规模上升意味着市场上的流动性较为充裕，可以缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。美联储的逆回购工具与我国央行正回购的功能类似，都是通过向金融机构出售证券，并约定在一段时间后回购，来达到回收市场上多余流动性的目的。因此，在流动性过剩、市场利率较低的时期，非银金融机构为了获取稳定的收益，会选择将资金投向美联储的逆回购协议，逆回购协议利率由此成为充足准备金制度下，美联储利率走廊的下限，逆回购工具的使用量也在一定程度上反映了市场流动性的充裕程度。为何目前逆回购协议的占比均远高于上一轮缩表开始时？首先，对于银行来说，持有准备金是存在成本的。银行持有的准备金规模增加后，其整体资产负债表规模也将扩大，进而带来更高的资本监管要求，因此银行持有准备金的意愿并不会无限增长。其次，银行持有准备金的收益来自于套利交易，即按照市场回购利率（介于ON RRP 利率与存款准备金利率之间）从非银金融机构借入资金，并将这部分资金存入美联储，获得按存款准备金利率计算的利息。因此，存款准备金利率和ON RRP利率之间的价差衡量了套利交易的收益。上一轮缩表开始前后，这一利差保持在25BP，而目前仅为10BP，这无疑使得银行的套利收益下降，进而限制了其从非银金融机构借入资金的意愿。因而，大量的流动性淤积在非银金融机构中，非银金融机构只能直接将这部分资金存入美联储，导致目前逆回购协议的占比明显提升。目前联邦基金利率（EFFR）的相对位置同样表明，目前流动性较上轮缩表开始时更为充裕。如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）分别是联邦基金利率的上限和下限。我们分别计算了IOR与EFFR之差和EFFR与ON RRP利率之差，代表短期利率距离利率上限与下限的距离。可以发现，在上一轮美联储缩表开始前后，IOR与EFFR之间的差值更小，代表当时短端利率距离上限更为接近；而在目前，EFFR与ON RRP 利率的差值更小，短端利率距离下限更为接近，反映出的即是目前的流动性较上轮缩表开始时更加充裕。上一轮缩表开始时，美联储资产负债表负债端多为银行准备金，但目前逆回购协议规模的大增、以及联邦基金利率（EFFR）更接近利率下限，均表明无论是银行还是非银金融机构的流动性，均较上一轮缩表开始时更为充裕。因此，当美联储通过缩表回收流动性时，其资产负债表资产端持有的债券规模下降；而对于负债端来说，可通过逆回购协议规模的下降（而非像上一轮缩表一样，通过准备金规模的下降），实现相应的缩减，进而降低缩表对于准备金及市场流动性的冲击。三是，财政部一般存款规模的下降也将释放一定流动性。财政部一般存款规模的高增也是本次缩表时的另一项重要特点。与我国财政存款的作用类似，美国财政部一般存款的变动也会对市场流动性形成扰动。新冠疫情爆发前，美联储资产负债表中财政部一般存款（TGA）规模虽然有一定波动，但总规模基本保持在4000亿美元以下；疫情爆发后，美国财政部通过发行国债大量融资，TGA规模迅速上升，一度达到近1.8万亿美元的天量。2021年一季度，随着1.9万亿美元纾困法案的推出，TGA规模迅速下降。2021年中美国政府债务触及上限，财政部难以继续通过发债融资，TGA账户余额不断下降，一度降至不到600亿美元，在此过程中向市场释放了大量流动性。但2021年12月美国政府债务上限再次调升后，财政部通过发行国债迅速重建了其现金储备，4月末TGA账户规模已超过9000亿美元。往后看，美国财政政策也将逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而会向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。四是，常备回购便利（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）工具的推出也降低了流动性短缺发生的概率。2019年中开始，美国金融市场流动性便出现短缺迹象，即期利率不断突破联邦基金目标利率上限。2019年9月，在缴税及国债发行等因素的影响下，EFFR一度高于存款准备金利率20BP；2020年3月美国金融市场再度爆发“钱荒”，代表未来资金借贷成本的3个月FRA/OIS利差一度升至2008年以来高点，纽约联储回购操作连续遭超额认购。频繁发生的流动性短缺状况引发了美联储的关注：2021年7月，为了解决货币政策正常化过程中可能出现的流动性短缺问题，美联储“未雨绸缪”的推出了SRF工具。该工具允许合格交易商以国债、ABS或MBS为抵押品，以一定利率（通常被设定为联邦基金目标利率的上限）从美联储借入美元。SRF工具主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：一是，如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）只有在流动性充裕的情况下才会发挥利率上限的作用。当流动性开始紧张时，部分金融机构愿意以高于IOR的水平从市场借入资金，导致短端利率突破作为利率上限的IOR。SRF工具的功能简单来说便是，以一定的利率向市场释放流动性，进而降低利率的上行压力，正如2019年9月SRF工具尚未推出时，美联储通过回购操作压低短期利率一样。二是，SRF工具的推出增强了市场对于短期利率稳定的信心，进而降低了市场利率大幅波动的可能性。因此，该工具可以保证即期利率运行在联邦基金目标利率范围内。另外，SRF工具的使用量也是观察金融市场流动性状况的重要窗口：在金融市场流动性可以满足实际需求时，金融机构可通过市场顺利融资，SRF工具使用量应相对较低；而当金融市场流动性出现短缺时，金融机构会转而向美联储寻求流动性支持，SRF工具使用量也会相应上升。四小结总的来说，与2017年开启的缩表相比，通胀压力的加剧导致本次美联储缩表的节奏可能更快，但通胀走势的不确定性、以及美国经济“硬着陆”的风险，也使得美联储后续缩表的灵活性更强。与此同时，美联储也需细加权衡相机观察加息与缩表“组合拳”的效应。更重要的区别在于，从逆回购协议规模来看，目前美国金融市场的流动性已过度充裕，叠加后续财政部一般存款规模可能下降以及SRF工具的提前推出，本次美联储缩表对市场流动性的冲击或不及以往。 往后看，缩表结束的时间窗口或许在美联储本轮加息结束到下次降息之间。美联储在以往的资产负债表操作中曾多次声明，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段，言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。根据CME FedWatch Tool显示的数据，美联储本轮加息或将于2023年中结束。一旦之后美国经济下行压力加大，美联储将不再紧缩甚至再次转向宽松。届时，为了避免缩表与降息发出不同的政策信号，为了保持利率手段在货币政策中的主要地位，届时缩表大概率亦将“偃旗息鼓”。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但资产价格仍然可能出现巨大波动。自5月初美联储议息会议宣布即将开启缩表以来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其是10年期美债实际利率从5月4日的0.07%蹿升至5月10日的0.34%（而3月1日10年期美债实际利率仅为-0.90%），即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。同期，美元指数在103以上高位震荡，导致多数非美货币汇率急跌。美股也出现了明显回调，标普500指数一度跌至4000这一关键点位之下。因此，从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。风险提示：国际地缘冲突具有不确定性，美国通胀压力超预期，美国经济下行压力超预期，美联储政策紧缩力度超预期等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022783957,"gmtCreate":1653579922979,"gmtModify":1676535308313,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022783957","repostId":"1137501377","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137501377","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业与投资专业门户","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资界","id":"1096839439","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3"},"pubTimestamp":1653549543,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137501377?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-26 15:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global PE Sweep! Time to bargain-hunting high-quality assets?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137501377","media":"投资界","summary":"悲观者正确，乐观者赚钱。这是罕见的一幕：连续两天，两家PE巨头宣布了新募资。昨天（5月25日），全球四大PE之一——KKR宣布已募集完成首个亚洲信贷机遇基金，总额达11亿美元，这是首个专注于信贷投资的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Pessimists are right, and optimists make money. This is a rare scene: for two consecutive days, two PE giants announced new fundraising.</p><p>Yesterday (May 25th), KKR, one of the four largest PEs in the world, announced that it had raised the first Asian Credit Opportunity Fund, with a total amount of USD 1.1 billion. This is the first and largest regional fund focusing on credit investment, and it is also one of the largest and first-time regional credit funds in the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p>Coincidentally, the day before, Anhong Capital, one of the world's largest and longstanding private equity institutions, announced that it had raised $25 billion, the largest fund-raising this year, focusing on the Greater China market. And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">Carlyle</a>In the midst of a global downturn, buy, buy, buy aggressively. Among them, the major PE competition is grabbing the scene of Toshiba, Japan, and the signal is self-evident.</p><p>Is it time to bargain hunting now? As Warren Buffett said, \"Greed when others are afraid\", foreign PE has taken action. Whether it is the market or the secondary market, the valuation has been sharply corrected. With the superposition of macro factors such as the epidemic, war and US dollar rate hike, perhaps the best time to bargain-hunting high-quality assets has arrived.</p><p><b>PE replenishes ammunition and raises over $26 billion</b></p><p><b>Investing in Asia amid the pandemic</b></p><p>Why would KKR set up an Asian Credit Fund at this time?</p><p>Brian Dillard, KKR's head of credit in Asia, explained that 80 cents of every dollar of credit capital in Asia comes from bank capital, which is much larger than in North America or Europe. There is an imbalance between the financing needs and the financing available to Asian enterprises. At the same time, the region's booming economy has also prompted borrowers to seize the opportunity to seek more flexible financing solutions.</p><p>Of course, all this is inseparable from the current background: since the outbreak of the epidemic, all walks of life have been deeply affected, and many enterprises have tight cash flow, even<b>Valuations are at all-time lows. Opportunities are rare, and the US dollar big PE is coming</b>。</p><p>Such a scene is no stranger to large foreign-funded institutions that have experienced countless economic cycles. As early as 2004, KKR established a credit platform and completed its first non-public market credit investment project in 2005. With approximately US$184 billion of credit assets under management globally at the end of the first quarter of 2022, KKR is one of the largest non-public market credit platforms in the world, has the ability to invest in all parts of the capital structure and all stages of liquidity, and is widely active in the markets of Australia, Greater China, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam.</p><p>Since 2019, KKR has successfully completed 14 credit investment projects in the Asia-Pacific region, of which approximately US$2.4 billion has been invested by KKR, with a total transaction value of US$4.7 billion. These include acquisition financing and customized capital solutions for corporate and private equity projects in sectors such as environmental services, real estate, education, infrastructure and healthcare.</p><p>Lu Ming, head of KKR Asia Pacific, said, \"KKR's credit strategy is highly complementary to its existing equity strategy in Asia. The successful completion of ACOF fundraising is an important milestone for KKR Asia Pacific, and we will continue to expand our investment capabilities and capital solutions across asset classes. Asia has benefited from favorable macroeconomic trends and long-term growth, while enterprises face limited financing options while growing rapidly. We believe that these opportunities create an attractive prospect for alternative asset managers such as KKR: we can provide more flexible and differentiated credit solutions than traditional lending. \"</p><p>Founded in 1976, KKR is known as the \"Wolf of Wall Street\" and is also very active in China's venture capital circle. For more than 15 years, it has been intensively laid out in Greater China. By 2020, it has invested more than 6 billion USD (about 40 billion RMB) and more than 40 enterprises. Not long ago, KKR won the first fund manager license in China, and in the future, it may take the money of domestic RMB LP to invest overseas.</p><p>Interestingly, just a day before KKR officially announced the new Asia Fund, well-known PE<b>Anhong Capital has just created its biggest fundraising this year</b>— The scale is $25 billion. So far, Anhong Capital's total assets under management have exceeded USD 100 billion. According to public documents, Anhong Capital also emphasized the importance of investing in Greater China.</p><p>\"We are committed to continuously developing the Greater China market,\" said Andrew Li, managing director and head of Greater China at Anhong Capital. In the past 10 years, Anhong Capital has invested nearly 10 billion yuan in markets such as Greater China, focusing on retail and consumer goods, healthcare and business services. \"<b>Our investment in the market has accelerated over the past three years, exceeding our total investment over the previous seven years</b>。”</p><p>Meanwhile, Anhong Capital's local team in Greater China has more than doubled in size over the past decade. China plays a vital role in global economic growth, and we look forward to continuing to fulfil this long-term commitment, and plan to increase investment in the Greater China market and expand the size of our local team in the coming years, Li said bluntly.</p><p><b>From Blackstone to Carlyle</b></p><p><b>Global PE Starts Sweeping</b></p><p>As we can see, the global PE is striking everywhere.</p><p>Start with the largest PE in the universe sitting on trillion dollars<b>Blackstone Group</b>Speaking of. The latest news is that Blackstone intends to jointly acquire 146-year-old Japanese industrial conglomerate giant Toshiba with KKR. It's a tempting piece of \"fat\" that PE giants have fought for for years and now have broken into new buyers – Bloomberg reported on May 25 that Japan Investment Corporation (JIC) is considering buying Toshiba.</p><p>So far, there has been a long line behind Toshiba, almost all PE predators-Blackstone, KKR, Bain Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVC.AU\">CVC</a>Capital and so on, all of them are famous. Here to add, the well-known American PE<b>Bain Capital is preparing to raise at least $4.65 billion for its latest Asia-focused fund</b>。</p><p>Going back to Blackstone, the head of the company, Schwarzman, has said in public more than once:<b>The best investment opportunity is in China</b>。 Looking back at more than ten years in China, Blackstone can be called \"the most active investor in China's real estate\", sweeping China's commercial real estate. So far, the total investment has exceeded 60 billion yuan, and most of the investment occurred after 2018.</p><p>2021 can be said to be the most generous year for Blackstone to spend on China-May,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>Successfully landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and its market value once exceeded HK$ 280 billion, and Blackstone, as its cornerstone investor, also shared the dividends brought by China's logistics development. In June, Blackstone paid $1.3 billion from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00129\">Oceanwide Group</a>It won IDG Group, a market consulting agency, whose data business and media business are famous. At the same time, the domineering Blackstone was also sweeping the goods<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01589\">PRC Logistics Assets</a>It spent over 8 billion yuan to win R&F Integrated Logistics Park, the largest logistics park in the Greater Bay Area, which was a sensation.</p><p><b>And Carlyle Investments</b>It is also investing more in China. Bloomberg reported last week that Carlyle planned to acquire HCP, a Chinese cosmetic packaging manufacturer, for $1 billion. This news was quickly confirmed by the person in charge of Fuxiang Plastic Products Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the latter, but did not disclose the specific transaction price and other information.</p><p>This is an enterprise born in Taiwan Province, China, which mainly produces makeup packaging materials and skin care packaging materials such as lipstick, powder box and mascara. At present, HCP has a total of five factories in China, including one in Suzhou, two in Shanghai and two in Huai'an, respectively, serving brands including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">P&G</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZM.UK\">L'Oreal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">Estee Lauder</a>International giants such as Shiseido, Perfect Diary and Huaxizi, as well as China's cutting-edge head brands.</p><p>Prior to this, Carlyle had made a multi-faceted layout in China and invested in the medical industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002294\">Xinlitai</a>, Heyu Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">Hutchison Medicine</a>And other projects, perfect diaries in the big consumption track,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EM\">Monster Charge</a>And other new economy companies, as well as Shence Data,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09956\">Aneng Logistics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Logistics and other enterprises. By the end of 2020, Carlyle's total equity investment in China has exceeded US$10 billion, and the investment momentum is strong.</p><p>In the latest interview, Li Kuisheng, CEO of Carlyle Group, emphasized that it is very important to know how to appreciate this type of opportunity and fluctuation, because it creates opportunities. At the same time, he also expressed his optimism about the long-term prospects of the Chinese market. \"After the fluctuations in the past few months, the best CEOs and enterprises from all walks of life in the world have begun to think about what opportunities will emerge, and Carlyle has the same mentality.\"</p><p><b>Valuation downside</b></p><p><b>Time to bargain-hunting high-quality assets?</b></p><p>\"Others are afraid that I am greedy\", and foreign-funded institutions have ushered in a rare window of bargain-hunting. Along this context, we have seen the busy scene of \"bargain-hunting\" stocks in the secondary market.</p><p>Since 2022, under the influence of multiple events such as the international environment and the US dollar rate hike, the primary and secondary markets have ushered in an ups and downs downturn, and the valuation has fallen to a historically low level.</p><p>Last week, the Sequoia US team made a sharing based on the current macro situation and various pressures, which caused a stir. Taking Nasdaq as an example, Sequoia said: In the past six months, the technology market has wiped out unimaginable market value, and Nasdaq has lost 28% since November last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d37849d2d1d447ae4b41719aaf806a8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, many overseas asset management giants have increased their holdings in Chinese technology companies. In the middle of this month, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, submitted its position report for the first quarter of 2022 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The report shows that Bridgewater continues to be optimistic about Chinese assets,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>All of the Chinese stocks were increased. In addition to Bridgewater, Fidelity International and Morgan have also begun to increase their holdings of Internet stocks such as JD.COM and Meituan.</p><p>At the beginning of May, Buffett's old friend Munger responded to the question of \"investing in China\". He stressed that the reason for investing in China is \"to be able to buy better companies there at a lower price\".</p><p><b>The reason is obvious: when the underlying valuation drops to a low level, the predators with strong families begin to bargain-hunting high-quality assets</b>。</p><p>The pressure comes to the Chinese VC/PE side. At present, domestic VC/PE is coming to an extremely severe moment, and busy investors in the past were forced to press the pause button. From the data of Zero2IPO Research Center, we can see a more real state-in the first quarter of this year, the pace of China's equity investment market slowed down obviously, and the number and amount of investment cases dropped by 27.5% and 47.1% year-on-year respectively. In other words, the money invested this year was nearly half less than that of the same period last year, which can be called halving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813f57913873dca32b3ec6a0661f9be4\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Out of responsibility for LP, even if they have surplus grain in their hands, GPs no longer make easy moves. Investigating the reason,<b>The sequelae of previous years' overvaluation are beginning to show</b>— — The upside down of the primary and secondary markets is intensifying, and it is difficult for a large number of companies to issue IPOs. The withdrawal of VC/PE behind them is blocked, and some even lose money in the B round.</p><p>In this situation, VC can't hide its loss. At the beginning of May, a venture capital tycoon bluntly said on the social platform that at present, 20%-30% of investment institutions are basically normal, 50%-60% of investment institutions are obviously slowing down, and the remaining 10%-20% are completely flat. \"The market is in a downturn. Dear friends, fasten your seat belts.\"</p><p>But there is also a positive: As the bubble fades and prices return to rationality, we can more clearly identify assets with strong fundamentals.</p><p>Pessimists are right, optimists make money. An investor in Beijing sighed,<b>Every time a crisis comes, it is the best time in this industry to siege cities and land</b>。</p><p>This winter may be longer than thought, but volatile markets often contain investment opportunities that deliver huge returns, just as Airbnb and Uber were both born in the depression of 2008.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global PE Sweep! Time to bargain-hunting high-quality assets?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal PE Sweep! Time to bargain-hunting high-quality assets?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1096839439\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-26 15:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Pessimists are right, and optimists make money. This is a rare scene: for two consecutive days, two PE giants announced new fundraising.</p><p>Yesterday (May 25th), KKR, one of the four largest PEs in the world, announced that it had raised the first Asian Credit Opportunity Fund, with a total amount of USD 1.1 billion. This is the first and largest regional fund focusing on credit investment, and it is also one of the largest and first-time regional credit funds in the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p>Coincidentally, the day before, Anhong Capital, one of the world's largest and longstanding private equity institutions, announced that it had raised $25 billion, the largest fund-raising this year, focusing on the Greater China market. And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">Carlyle</a>In the midst of a global downturn, buy, buy, buy aggressively. Among them, the major PE competition is grabbing the scene of Toshiba, Japan, and the signal is self-evident.</p><p>Is it time to bargain hunting now? As Warren Buffett said, \"Greed when others are afraid\", foreign PE has taken action. Whether it is the market or the secondary market, the valuation has been sharply corrected. With the superposition of macro factors such as the epidemic, war and US dollar rate hike, perhaps the best time to bargain-hunting high-quality assets has arrived.</p><p><b>PE replenishes ammunition and raises over $26 billion</b></p><p><b>Investing in Asia amid the pandemic</b></p><p>Why would KKR set up an Asian Credit Fund at this time?</p><p>Brian Dillard, KKR's head of credit in Asia, explained that 80 cents of every dollar of credit capital in Asia comes from bank capital, which is much larger than in North America or Europe. There is an imbalance between the financing needs and the financing available to Asian enterprises. At the same time, the region's booming economy has also prompted borrowers to seize the opportunity to seek more flexible financing solutions.</p><p>Of course, all this is inseparable from the current background: since the outbreak of the epidemic, all walks of life have been deeply affected, and many enterprises have tight cash flow, even<b>Valuations are at all-time lows. Opportunities are rare, and the US dollar big PE is coming</b>。</p><p>Such a scene is no stranger to large foreign-funded institutions that have experienced countless economic cycles. As early as 2004, KKR established a credit platform and completed its first non-public market credit investment project in 2005. With approximately US$184 billion of credit assets under management globally at the end of the first quarter of 2022, KKR is one of the largest non-public market credit platforms in the world, has the ability to invest in all parts of the capital structure and all stages of liquidity, and is widely active in the markets of Australia, Greater China, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam.</p><p>Since 2019, KKR has successfully completed 14 credit investment projects in the Asia-Pacific region, of which approximately US$2.4 billion has been invested by KKR, with a total transaction value of US$4.7 billion. These include acquisition financing and customized capital solutions for corporate and private equity projects in sectors such as environmental services, real estate, education, infrastructure and healthcare.</p><p>Lu Ming, head of KKR Asia Pacific, said, \"KKR's credit strategy is highly complementary to its existing equity strategy in Asia. The successful completion of ACOF fundraising is an important milestone for KKR Asia Pacific, and we will continue to expand our investment capabilities and capital solutions across asset classes. Asia has benefited from favorable macroeconomic trends and long-term growth, while enterprises face limited financing options while growing rapidly. We believe that these opportunities create an attractive prospect for alternative asset managers such as KKR: we can provide more flexible and differentiated credit solutions than traditional lending. \"</p><p>Founded in 1976, KKR is known as the \"Wolf of Wall Street\" and is also very active in China's venture capital circle. For more than 15 years, it has been intensively laid out in Greater China. By 2020, it has invested more than 6 billion USD (about 40 billion RMB) and more than 40 enterprises. Not long ago, KKR won the first fund manager license in China, and in the future, it may take the money of domestic RMB LP to invest overseas.</p><p>Interestingly, just a day before KKR officially announced the new Asia Fund, well-known PE<b>Anhong Capital has just created its biggest fundraising this year</b>— The scale is $25 billion. So far, Anhong Capital's total assets under management have exceeded USD 100 billion. According to public documents, Anhong Capital also emphasized the importance of investing in Greater China.</p><p>\"We are committed to continuously developing the Greater China market,\" said Andrew Li, managing director and head of Greater China at Anhong Capital. In the past 10 years, Anhong Capital has invested nearly 10 billion yuan in markets such as Greater China, focusing on retail and consumer goods, healthcare and business services. \"<b>Our investment in the market has accelerated over the past three years, exceeding our total investment over the previous seven years</b>。”</p><p>Meanwhile, Anhong Capital's local team in Greater China has more than doubled in size over the past decade. China plays a vital role in global economic growth, and we look forward to continuing to fulfil this long-term commitment, and plan to increase investment in the Greater China market and expand the size of our local team in the coming years, Li said bluntly.</p><p><b>From Blackstone to Carlyle</b></p><p><b>Global PE Starts Sweeping</b></p><p>As we can see, the global PE is striking everywhere.</p><p>Start with the largest PE in the universe sitting on trillion dollars<b>Blackstone Group</b>Speaking of. The latest news is that Blackstone intends to jointly acquire 146-year-old Japanese industrial conglomerate giant Toshiba with KKR. It's a tempting piece of \"fat\" that PE giants have fought for for years and now have broken into new buyers – Bloomberg reported on May 25 that Japan Investment Corporation (JIC) is considering buying Toshiba.</p><p>So far, there has been a long line behind Toshiba, almost all PE predators-Blackstone, KKR, Bain Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVC.AU\">CVC</a>Capital and so on, all of them are famous. Here to add, the well-known American PE<b>Bain Capital is preparing to raise at least $4.65 billion for its latest Asia-focused fund</b>。</p><p>Going back to Blackstone, the head of the company, Schwarzman, has said in public more than once:<b>The best investment opportunity is in China</b>。 Looking back at more than ten years in China, Blackstone can be called \"the most active investor in China's real estate\", sweeping China's commercial real estate. So far, the total investment has exceeded 60 billion yuan, and most of the investment occurred after 2018.</p><p>2021 can be said to be the most generous year for Blackstone to spend on China-May,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>Successfully landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and its market value once exceeded HK$ 280 billion, and Blackstone, as its cornerstone investor, also shared the dividends brought by China's logistics development. In June, Blackstone paid $1.3 billion from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00129\">Oceanwide Group</a>It won IDG Group, a market consulting agency, whose data business and media business are famous. At the same time, the domineering Blackstone was also sweeping the goods<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01589\">PRC Logistics Assets</a>It spent over 8 billion yuan to win R&F Integrated Logistics Park, the largest logistics park in the Greater Bay Area, which was a sensation.</p><p><b>And Carlyle Investments</b>It is also investing more in China. Bloomberg reported last week that Carlyle planned to acquire HCP, a Chinese cosmetic packaging manufacturer, for $1 billion. This news was quickly confirmed by the person in charge of Fuxiang Plastic Products Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the latter, but did not disclose the specific transaction price and other information.</p><p>This is an enterprise born in Taiwan Province, China, which mainly produces makeup packaging materials and skin care packaging materials such as lipstick, powder box and mascara. At present, HCP has a total of five factories in China, including one in Suzhou, two in Shanghai and two in Huai'an, respectively, serving brands including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">P&G</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZM.UK\">L'Oreal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">Estee Lauder</a>International giants such as Shiseido, Perfect Diary and Huaxizi, as well as China's cutting-edge head brands.</p><p>Prior to this, Carlyle had made a multi-faceted layout in China and invested in the medical industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002294\">Xinlitai</a>, Heyu Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">Hutchison Medicine</a>And other projects, perfect diaries in the big consumption track,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EM\">Monster Charge</a>And other new economy companies, as well as Shence Data,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09956\">Aneng Logistics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Logistics and other enterprises. By the end of 2020, Carlyle's total equity investment in China has exceeded US$10 billion, and the investment momentum is strong.</p><p>In the latest interview, Li Kuisheng, CEO of Carlyle Group, emphasized that it is very important to know how to appreciate this type of opportunity and fluctuation, because it creates opportunities. At the same time, he also expressed his optimism about the long-term prospects of the Chinese market. \"After the fluctuations in the past few months, the best CEOs and enterprises from all walks of life in the world have begun to think about what opportunities will emerge, and Carlyle has the same mentality.\"</p><p><b>Valuation downside</b></p><p><b>Time to bargain-hunting high-quality assets?</b></p><p>\"Others are afraid that I am greedy\", and foreign-funded institutions have ushered in a rare window of bargain-hunting. Along this context, we have seen the busy scene of \"bargain-hunting\" stocks in the secondary market.</p><p>Since 2022, under the influence of multiple events such as the international environment and the US dollar rate hike, the primary and secondary markets have ushered in an ups and downs downturn, and the valuation has fallen to a historically low level.</p><p>Last week, the Sequoia US team made a sharing based on the current macro situation and various pressures, which caused a stir. Taking Nasdaq as an example, Sequoia said: In the past six months, the technology market has wiped out unimaginable market value, and Nasdaq has lost 28% since November last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d37849d2d1d447ae4b41719aaf806a8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, many overseas asset management giants have increased their holdings in Chinese technology companies. In the middle of this month, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, submitted its position report for the first quarter of 2022 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The report shows that Bridgewater continues to be optimistic about Chinese assets,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>All of the Chinese stocks were increased. In addition to Bridgewater, Fidelity International and Morgan have also begun to increase their holdings of Internet stocks such as JD.COM and Meituan.</p><p>At the beginning of May, Buffett's old friend Munger responded to the question of \"investing in China\". He stressed that the reason for investing in China is \"to be able to buy better companies there at a lower price\".</p><p><b>The reason is obvious: when the underlying valuation drops to a low level, the predators with strong families begin to bargain-hunting high-quality assets</b>。</p><p>The pressure comes to the Chinese VC/PE side. At present, domestic VC/PE is coming to an extremely severe moment, and busy investors in the past were forced to press the pause button. From the data of Zero2IPO Research Center, we can see a more real state-in the first quarter of this year, the pace of China's equity investment market slowed down obviously, and the number and amount of investment cases dropped by 27.5% and 47.1% year-on-year respectively. In other words, the money invested this year was nearly half less than that of the same period last year, which can be called halving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813f57913873dca32b3ec6a0661f9be4\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Out of responsibility for LP, even if they have surplus grain in their hands, GPs no longer make easy moves. Investigating the reason,<b>The sequelae of previous years' overvaluation are beginning to show</b>— — The upside down of the primary and secondary markets is intensifying, and it is difficult for a large number of companies to issue IPOs. The withdrawal of VC/PE behind them is blocked, and some even lose money in the B round.</p><p>In this situation, VC can't hide its loss. At the beginning of May, a venture capital tycoon bluntly said on the social platform that at present, 20%-30% of investment institutions are basically normal, 50%-60% of investment institutions are obviously slowing down, and the remaining 10%-20% are completely flat. \"The market is in a downturn. Dear friends, fasten your seat belts.\"</p><p>But there is also a positive: As the bubble fades and prices return to rationality, we can more clearly identify assets with strong fundamentals.</p><p>Pessimists are right, optimists make money. An investor in Beijing sighed,<b>Every time a crisis comes, it is the best time in this industry to siege cities and land</b>。</p><p>This winter may be longer than thought, but volatile markets often contain investment opportunities that deliver huge returns, just as Airbnb and Uber were both born in the depression of 2008.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137501377","content_text":"悲观者正确，乐观者赚钱。这是罕见的一幕：连续两天，两家PE巨头宣布了新募资。昨天（5月25日），全球四大PE之一——KKR宣布已募集完成首个亚洲信贷机遇基金，总额达11亿美元，这是首个专注于信贷投资的最大型区域性基金，也是亚太地区最大且首次募集的区域性信贷基金之一。无独有偶，前一天，全球规模最大且历史悠久的私募股权机构之一——安宏资本宣布募集250亿美元，这是今年最大一笔募资，重点投向大中华市场。还有黑石、凯雷在全球经济低迷之际，大刀阔斧地买买买。其中，各大PE争正在抢日本东芝的一幕，信号不言而喻。现在到了抄底的时候吗？正如股神巴菲特所说，“在别人恐惧时贪婪”，外资PE已经行动了。无论一是市场还是二级市场，估值都出现了大幅回调，再叠加疫情、战争、美元加息等宏观因素，或许抄底优质资产的最好时机已经到来了。PE补充弹药，募集超260亿美金疫情下投向亚洲KKR为何会在此时设立一个亚洲信贷基金？KKR亚洲区信贷主管Brian Dillard解释，在亚洲，每一美元的信贷资本有80美分来自于银行资本，这一比例远远大于北美或欧洲市场。亚洲地区企业的融资需求和可用的融资之间存在不平衡现象。与此同时该地区的经济蓬勃增长与繁荣，也促使借款人抓住机会寻求更灵活融资的解决方案。当然，这一切离不开当下背景：自疫情暴发以来，各行各业都深受影响，不少企业现金流紧张，甚至估值处于历史最低点。机遇难逢，美元大PE来了。这样的一幕对于经历无数经济周期的外资大机构而言并不陌生。早在2004年，KKR就已建立信贷平台，并在2005年完成首个非公开市场信贷投资项目。截至2022年第一季度末，KKR在全球管理的信贷资产约为1840亿美元，是全球最大的非公开市场信贷平台之一，拥有投资于资本结构的各部分以及流动性各个阶段的能力，并广泛活跃于澳大利亚、大中华区、印度、韩国、马来西亚、新加坡和越南市场。2019年起，KKR在亚太地区已顺利完成14笔信贷投资项目，其中约24亿美元由KKR投资，交易总值达47亿美元。其中包括了针对环境服务、房地产、教育、基础设施和医疗等行业的企业与私募股权项目提供的收购融资和定制资本解决方案。KKR亚太区负责人路明表示，“KKR的信贷策略与其亚洲的现有股权战略高度互补。ACOF募资的圆满完成是KKR亚太地区的重要里程碑，我们将继续拓展跨资产类别的投资能力与资本解决方案。亚洲地区受益于有利的宏观经济趋势和长期增长，企业在快速增长的同时却面临有限的融资选择。我们认为，这些机遇为KKR等另类资产管理公司构建了颇具吸引力的前景：比起传统借贷，我们可提供更加灵活且具备差异化的信贷解决方案。”成立于1976年，KKR素有“华尔街之狼”之称，在中国创投圈也十分活跃，15余年来密集布局大中华地区，截至2020年已经投出超60亿美元（约合人民币400亿元），40余家企业。不久前，KKR更是在中国拿下了第一块基金管理人牌照，未来或将拿着国内人民币LP的钱进行海外投资。有趣的是，就在KKR官宣新亚洲基金的前一天，知名PE安宏资本刚刚缔造了今年最大一笔募资——规模250亿美元。至此，安宏资本总管理资产超1000亿美元。根据公开的文件，安宏资本同样强调了投资大中华区的重要性。“我们致力于不断发展大中华区市场。”安宏资本董事总经理兼大中华区主管李晰安（Andrew Li）表示。在过去10年中，安宏资本在大中华区等市场投资了近100亿元人民币，重点关注零售和消费品、医疗健康以及商业服务行业，“过去三年，我们在该市场的投资速度加快，超过了此前七年的总投资额。”与此同时，安宏资本的大中华本地团队规模在过去十年翻了一番多。李晰安直言，中国在全球经济增长中发挥着至关重要的作用，我们期待继续践行这一长期承诺，并计划在未来几年里，加大对大中华区市场的投资，扩大本地团队规模。从黑石到凯雷全球PE开始大扫货如我们所见，全球PE正四处出击。先从坐拥万亿美元的宇宙第一大PE黑石集团说起。最新消息是，黑石集团打算与KKR联合收购拥有146年历史的日本工业集团巨头东芝。这是一块诱人的“肥肉”，PE巨头争抢多年，现在还闯入了新的买家——彭博5月25日报道称，日本投资公司（JIC）正在考虑收购东芝公司。至此，东芝身后已经排起了长队，几乎清一色PE大鳄——黑石、KKR、贝恩资本、CVC资本等等，全都是赫赫有名。这里补充一下，美国知名PE贝恩资本正在准备为最新一只专注于亚洲的基金筹资至少46.5亿美元。继续说回黑石，公司掌门人苏世民曾不止一次地在公开场合中说过：最好的投资机会在中国。回首入华十余年，黑石堪称“中国房地产最积极投资者”，横扫中国商业地产，至今投资总额超600亿元，且大部分投资发生在2018年以后。2021年，可以说是黑石出手中国最为阔绰的年度——5月，京东物流成功登陆港交所，市值一度超2800亿港元， 而黑石作为其基石投资者也同样分享着中国物流发展所带来的红利。6月，黑石以13亿美元从泛海集团手中拿下市场咨询机构IDG集团，后者旗下数据业务和媒体业务赫赫有名。同时，霸气的黑石也在扫货中国物流资产，斥资超80亿元全股权拿下了大湾区最大物流园——富力综合物流园区，轰动一时。还有凯雷投资也在加码投资中国。彭博社上周报道称，凯雷拟以10亿美元收购中国彩妆包材商HCP，这一消息很快得到了后者旗下富祥塑胶制品有限公司负责人的确认，但并未透露具体交易价格等信息。这是一家诞生于中国台湾的企业，主要生产口红、粉盒、睫毛膏等彩妆包材和护肤包材。目前，HCP在中国共有5家工厂，其中在苏州有1家，上海和淮安分别有2家，服务的品牌包含宝洁、欧莱雅、雅诗兰黛、资生堂等国际巨头，以及完美日记、花西子等中国新锐头部品牌。在此之前，凯雷已经在中国多方位布局，在医疗行业投出了信立泰、和誉医药、和黄医药等项目，在大消费赛道出手完美日记、怪兽充电等新经济公司，以及神策数据、安能物流、京东物流等等企业。截至2020年末，凯雷在中国的股本投资总额已超过100亿美元，投资势头强劲。最新的采访中，凯雷集团CEO李揆晟强调，懂得欣赏这种类型的机会和波动非常重要，因为它创造了机会，同时他也表达了对中国市场长期前景的看好，“经历过去几个月的波动后，全球各行各业最优秀的CEO和企业都开始思考有哪些机会由此涌现，凯雷也是这样的心态。”估值下行抄底优质资产的时机到了？“别人恐惧我贪婪”，外资机构迎来了难得的抄底窗口期。沿着这条脉络，我们看到了二级市场“抄底”中概股的忙碌一幕。2022年以来，在国际环境、美元加息等多重事件的影响下，一二级市场迎来跌宕起伏的低迷形势，估值跌至历史低位。上周，红杉美国团队基于当下的宏观形势以及各种压力进行了一次分享，引发轰动。红杉美国以纳斯达克为例表示：过去六个月里，科技市场蒸发了难以想象的市值，纳斯达克从去年11月以来跌去了28%。在此背景下，不少海外资管巨头加码扫货，包括对中国科技公司的增持——本月中旬，全球最大对冲基金桥水向美国证券交易委员会提交了2022年一季度持仓报告。报告显示，桥水继续看好中国资产，阿里巴巴、拼多多、百度等中概股均获增持。除桥水外，富达国际、摩根等也开始增持京东、美团等互联网股票。5月初，巴菲特老友芒格回应了“投资于中国”的问题，他强调，在中国投资的原因是，“能够在那里以更低的价格买到更好的公司”。道理显而易见：当标的估值下行至低位，家底雄厚的大鳄们开始抄底优质资产。压力来到中国VC/PE这边。眼下国内VC/PE正来到极为严峻的时刻，昔日忙碌的投资人被迫按下了暂停键。我们从清科研究中心的数据，看到更为真实的状态——今年一季度，中国股权投资市场节奏明显放缓，投资案例数和金额分别同比下降27.5%和47.1%，换言之，今年投出的钱比去年同期少了近一半，堪称腰斩。出于对LP负责，即使手握余粮，GP们也不再轻易出手。究其原因，前几年估值过高的后遗症开始显现——一二级市场倒挂愈演愈烈，大批公司IPO发行困难，身后的VC/PE退出受阻，有的甚至亏到了B轮。此情此景，VC难掩失落。5月初，一位创投大佬在社交平台直言，目前保持基本正常的投资机构占比20%—30%，步伐明显放缓的投资机构占比50%—60%，剩下的10%—20%彻底躺平，“大市低迷，各位朋友，系好安全带。”但也有积极的一面：随着泡沫褪去，价格回归理性，我们能更清晰地识别基本面过硬的资产。悲观者正确，乐观者赚钱。北京一位投资人感慨，每次危机来的时候，都是这个行业里面攻城掠地最好的时候。这一次寒冬或比想象中的更漫长，但动荡市场往往蕴藏着带来巨大回报的投资机会，正如Airbnb和Uber都诞生于萧条的2008年。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092077416,"gmtCreate":1644502697229,"gmtModify":1676533934134,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092077416","repostId":"2210980598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210980598","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644495276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210980598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 20:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is it really different this time? How to understand the new framework of \"improvisation\" of the Federal Reserve","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210980598","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>The Fed's monetary policy shift to \"data dependence\" will accelerate in 2022, but the problem is that data predictability is too low in the new rate hike cycle.</b>In the FOMC statement in January, the Federal Reserve mentioned that \"soon\" will be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that the interest rate hike in March is coming. However, for the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized in the question and answer session of the press conference,<b>Officials did not make any decisions and said the FOMC needed to remain \"nimble\" and did not rule out any options.</b></p><p>Powell said, \"We will make a decision based on the data coming out next and the evolving outlook.\"</p><p><b>This statement creates an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market:</b>How many times will the Fed rate hike this year? Will the previous meetings significantly rate hike 50 basis points? The point in time in shrinking balance sheet? These questions remain unclear.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>In a recent report, analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out that the January FOMC meeting highlighted nimble when answering which policy rate path is the most appropriate, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will shift from \"new normal\" to \"flexible\" in 2022 and will accelerate the shift to \"data dependence\".</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike will be based on economic data, and it also seems to correspond to an earlier \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how to understand this new \"improvisational\" framework of the Federal Reserve? UBS thinks that this time is different from the \"data dependence\" of Yellen period, so what's the difference? What does it mean for the market?</p><p><h2>The new framework of \"improvisation\": the essence is still to maintain discretion</h2>The January meeting largely abandoned forward guidance, aside from saying that the rate hike would begin \"soon\".</p><p>Powell first said at the press conference that he would not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, and threw out the most serious situation. However, then Fed officials made speeches one after another, and their style was more moderate and leaving room.</p><p>Right now, basically all officials have hit back at a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and most seem to be hinting at about four 25 basis point rate hike this year.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>Signal of:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic said at first that if necessary, he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time, but then immediately \"changed his tune\" and said that 50 basis points in rate hike was not his preferred policy action in March; He said in an article in the Financial Times that he wants to raise rates three times in 2022,<b>But other possibilities are not ruled out.</b>He also said: \"I think the message the chairman is trying to convey is:<b>We weren't on any particular trajectory. The data will tell us what's going on.</b>Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari said on Jan. 28: \"We hope that price pressures will naturally ease as supply chain issues resolve, which means the Fed has to do less. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials think there may be three rate hike this year, each of about 25 basis points.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>San Francisco Fed President Daly said on Jan. 31: \"A lot of reference is appropriate. Let's say four rate hikes in 2022 and rates reach 1.25%, which is quite a bit of tightening, but also quite a bit of room left in the system because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy, not causing disruption.<b>I think this balance is an appropriate way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>\"Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said Feb. 1:\" Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I'm not so sure about that right now...<b>If inflation stays where it is now, and continues to fall, I don't think it will rate hike 50 basis points.</b>\"UBS believes,<b>Officials began with a quarterly rate hike, sidestepping the extrapolation that markets are rate hike at every meeting, leaving the option to accelerate or slow policy later.</b></p><p>The current UBS baseline forecast is that the FOMC will pull easing by rate hike 25 basis points in each quarter of the year (March, June, September and December) and begin shrinking its balance sheet at the FOMC meeting in May (or possibly no later than July).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, particularly inflation data and data that reflect the outlook for inflation. Among them, the inflation data in May will be a watershed affecting the direction of policy:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (all the way through May), then in the second half of the year, the FOMC could shift from a quarterly rate hike to a rhythm of rate hike at each meeting, with the June FOMC meeting likely to start signaling a rate hike in July, and then at subsequent meetings, consecutive rate hike of 25 basis points as needed. In turn, the FOMC may also suspend its rate hike if inflation starts to soften in the second half of the year. This suggests that the new framework retains the option of \"flexibility\" that the Fed needs in the second half of the year, while, in essence, the Fed is still maintaining discretion.</p><p><h2>Is it really different this time?</h2>The Federal Reserve has always avoided using certain fixed rules to restrict its monetary policy decisions. For example, in the Yellen era, in order to maintain discretion, the Federal Reserve often pushed theory first and constantly updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>Such tendencies became more pronounced in the Powell era, especially after the outbreak. The media even used \"Powell's Federal Reserve is like Greenspan's\" to describe Powell's emphasis on discretion and rejection of rules and regulations.</p><p>But discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is harder for the Fed to convince markets that it is serious about meeting its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that,<b>The Fed's \"data dependence\" is very different today than it was in the previous 20 years</b>, during Yellen's time as Fed chair, despite the very clear \"data dependence\" of Fed policy, Yellen often said that \"policy did not follow a pre-set course\", but the rate hike path at that time basically followed a stable, predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke after the then-FOMC meeting, saying, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy is data-dependent.\" The speech ended with, \"I can't tell you the exact rate hike date…but I can't anyway…\".</p><p>But at that meeting, the Fed's median GDP forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 was 1.8%-2.0%. The final results proved that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that at that time, the Federal Reserve had control over economic data to a large extent, and the Federal Reserve could pre-set the policy path, but this time it was really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of the data is too low.</p><p>Take the most critical inflation data, for example,<b>Professional forecasters of recent Philadelphia Fed surveys on the fourth quarter 2021 GDP deflator</b>(A common measure of inflation)<b>The forecast dispersion of, up to the peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increased uncertainty is reminiscent of the years leading up to the 1990s, the decades leading up to the so-called \"Great Deescalation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, analysts have many differences on the expectation of future inflation, and the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic is undoubtedly one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, contrary to the flattening of Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to the decline of unemployment rate, which did not bring about the rise of inflation rate), today's economic environment-the trend of globalization has been reversed in 2008, the downward trend of capital factor prices faces zero interest rate constraints, the global demographic dividend is gradually drifting away, the burden of aging society is becoming heavier and heavier, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation. The monetary authorities are not only facing more complicated trade-offs, but also need to cautiously maintain their independence. These factors are the forces calling for the return of inflation and the \"resurrection\" of Phillips curve.</p><p>Today's Fed faces bigger challenges, with a more uncertain economic outlook and much more volatile macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the past fourth quarter, economic forecasts are very divergent.</p><p>As a result, UBS believes that data dependence may be an escape during a \"great deescalation\" period, but<b>Data dependencies in the current context are necessary.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>There will be a risk that policies will be more volatile</h2>Although the Fed's new \"improvisational\" framework helps it to respond to all possible outcomes in time, to repeat the previous article, discretion has its drawbacks. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability and possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if central banks rely on data, which is more volatile than in recent history, it means there is also a risk of more volatile policy, which also represents another source of macroeconomic fluctuations.</p><p>And UBS said,<b>The central bank's reliance on data with increased volatility will be part of a new macroeconomic era.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is it really different this time? How to understand the new framework of \"improvisation\" of the Federal Reserve</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs it really different this time? How to understand the new framework of \"improvisation\" of the Federal Reserve\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-10 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b><b>The Fed's monetary policy shift to \"data dependence\" will accelerate in 2022, but the problem is that data predictability is too low in the new rate hike cycle.</b>In the FOMC statement in January, the Federal Reserve mentioned that \"soon\" will be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that the interest rate hike in March is coming. However, for the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized in the question and answer session of the press conference,<b>Officials did not make any decisions and said the FOMC needed to remain \"nimble\" and did not rule out any options.</b></p><p>Powell said, \"We will make a decision based on the data coming out next and the evolving outlook.\"</p><p><b>This statement creates an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market:</b>How many times will the Fed rate hike this year? Will the previous meetings significantly rate hike 50 basis points? The point in time in shrinking balance sheet? These questions remain unclear.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>In a recent report, analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out that the January FOMC meeting highlighted nimble when answering which policy rate path is the most appropriate, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will shift from \"new normal\" to \"flexible\" in 2022 and will accelerate the shift to \"data dependence\".</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike will be based on economic data, and it also seems to correspond to an earlier \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how to understand this new \"improvisational\" framework of the Federal Reserve? UBS thinks that this time is different from the \"data dependence\" of Yellen period, so what's the difference? What does it mean for the market?</p><p><h2>The new framework of \"improvisation\": the essence is still to maintain discretion</h2>The January meeting largely abandoned forward guidance, aside from saying that the rate hike would begin \"soon\".</p><p>Powell first said at the press conference that he would not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, and threw out the most serious situation. However, then Fed officials made speeches one after another, and their style was more moderate and leaving room.</p><p>Right now, basically all officials have hit back at a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and most seem to be hinting at about four 25 basis point rate hike this year.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>Signal of:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic said at first that if necessary, he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time, but then immediately \"changed his tune\" and said that 50 basis points in rate hike was not his preferred policy action in March; He said in an article in the Financial Times that he wants to raise rates three times in 2022,<b>But other possibilities are not ruled out.</b>He also said: \"I think the message the chairman is trying to convey is:<b>We weren't on any particular trajectory. The data will tell us what's going on.</b>Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari said on Jan. 28: \"We hope that price pressures will naturally ease as supply chain issues resolve, which means the Fed has to do less. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials think there may be three rate hike this year, each of about 25 basis points.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>San Francisco Fed President Daly said on Jan. 31: \"A lot of reference is appropriate. Let's say four rate hikes in 2022 and rates reach 1.25%, which is quite a bit of tightening, but also quite a bit of room left in the system because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy, not causing disruption.<b>I think this balance is an appropriate way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>\"Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said Feb. 1:\" Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I'm not so sure about that right now...<b>If inflation stays where it is now, and continues to fall, I don't think it will rate hike 50 basis points.</b>\"UBS believes,<b>Officials began with a quarterly rate hike, sidestepping the extrapolation that markets are rate hike at every meeting, leaving the option to accelerate or slow policy later.</b></p><p>The current UBS baseline forecast is that the FOMC will pull easing by rate hike 25 basis points in each quarter of the year (March, June, September and December) and begin shrinking its balance sheet at the FOMC meeting in May (or possibly no later than July).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, particularly inflation data and data that reflect the outlook for inflation. Among them, the inflation data in May will be a watershed affecting the direction of policy:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (all the way through May), then in the second half of the year, the FOMC could shift from a quarterly rate hike to a rhythm of rate hike at each meeting, with the June FOMC meeting likely to start signaling a rate hike in July, and then at subsequent meetings, consecutive rate hike of 25 basis points as needed. In turn, the FOMC may also suspend its rate hike if inflation starts to soften in the second half of the year. This suggests that the new framework retains the option of \"flexibility\" that the Fed needs in the second half of the year, while, in essence, the Fed is still maintaining discretion.</p><p><h2>Is it really different this time?</h2>The Federal Reserve has always avoided using certain fixed rules to restrict its monetary policy decisions. For example, in the Yellen era, in order to maintain discretion, the Federal Reserve often pushed theory first and constantly updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>Such tendencies became more pronounced in the Powell era, especially after the outbreak. The media even used \"Powell's Federal Reserve is like Greenspan's\" to describe Powell's emphasis on discretion and rejection of rules and regulations.</p><p>But discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is harder for the Fed to convince markets that it is serious about meeting its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that,<b>The Fed's \"data dependence\" is very different today than it was in the previous 20 years</b>, during Yellen's time as Fed chair, despite the very clear \"data dependence\" of Fed policy, Yellen often said that \"policy did not follow a pre-set course\", but the rate hike path at that time basically followed a stable, predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke after the then-FOMC meeting, saying, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy is data-dependent.\" The speech ended with, \"I can't tell you the exact rate hike date…but I can't anyway…\".</p><p>But at that meeting, the Fed's median GDP forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 was 1.8%-2.0%. The final results proved that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that at that time, the Federal Reserve had control over economic data to a large extent, and the Federal Reserve could pre-set the policy path, but this time it was really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of the data is too low.</p><p>Take the most critical inflation data, for example,<b>Professional forecasters of recent Philadelphia Fed surveys on the fourth quarter 2021 GDP deflator</b>(A common measure of inflation)<b>The forecast dispersion of, up to the peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increased uncertainty is reminiscent of the years leading up to the 1990s, the decades leading up to the so-called \"Great Deescalation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, analysts have many differences on the expectation of future inflation, and the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic is undoubtedly one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, contrary to the flattening of Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to the decline of unemployment rate, which did not bring about the rise of inflation rate), today's economic environment-the trend of globalization has been reversed in 2008, the downward trend of capital factor prices faces zero interest rate constraints, the global demographic dividend is gradually drifting away, the burden of aging society is becoming heavier and heavier, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation. The monetary authorities are not only facing more complicated trade-offs, but also need to cautiously maintain their independence. These factors are the forces calling for the return of inflation and the \"resurrection\" of Phillips curve.</p><p>Today's Fed faces bigger challenges, with a more uncertain economic outlook and much more volatile macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the past fourth quarter, economic forecasts are very divergent.</p><p>As a result, UBS believes that data dependence may be an escape during a \"great deescalation\" period, but<b>Data dependencies in the current context are necessary.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>There will be a risk that policies will be more volatile</h2>Although the Fed's new \"improvisational\" framework helps it to respond to all possible outcomes in time, to repeat the previous article, discretion has its drawbacks. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability and possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if central banks rely on data, which is more volatile than in recent history, it means there is also a risk of more volatile policy, which also represents another source of macroeconomic fluctuations.</p><p>And UBS said,<b>The central bank's reliance on data with increased volatility will be part of a new macroeconomic era.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210980598","content_text":"摘要：2022年美联储货币政策将加速转向“数据依赖性”，但问题在于在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。在1月的FOMC声明中，美联储提到“很快”将“适合”加息，清晰地表明3月加息即将到来，不过对于具体的政策路径，鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节多次强调，官员们并未做出任何决定，并表示FOMC需要保持灵活应变（\"nimble\"），不排除任何选择。鲍威尔表示，“我们将根据接下来公布的数据和不断演变的前景去做决定”。这番表述给市场营造了一种不确定的氛围：美联储今年到底会加息几次？前几次会议是否会大幅加息50个基点？缩表的时间点？这些问题仍然不明确。瑞银分析师Jonathan Pingle在最近的报告中指出，1月FOMC会议在回答哪条政策利率路径最为合适时，重点提到了灵活应变（nimble），这意味着2022美联储货币政策从“新常态”转变为“灵活应变”，并将加速转向“数据依赖性”。这听上去与耶伦当年强调加息将基于经济数据的理念似曾相似，也似乎可以对应到更早一点的“自由裁量权”（discretion）。那么，如何理解美联储这种“随机应变”式新框架？瑞银认为这一次与耶伦时期的“数据依赖”不一样，那到底哪儿不一样？对于市场来说意味着什么？“随机应变”式新框架：本质仍是保持自由裁量权除了表示“很快”就开始加息外，1月会议基本放弃了前瞻性指引。鲍威尔先是在发布会上表示不排除每次会议都加息的可能性，将最为严重的情况抛了出来，但随后美联储官员陆续发表讲话，风格又更加温和和留有余地。目前，基本上所有官员都对3月加息50个基点进行了回击，大多数官员似乎都在暗示今年大约将加息4次，每次25个基点。很多官员也表达了政策将遵循数据的信号：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克一开始表示如有必要可以一次加息50基点，但随后又立马“改口”称，加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动；他在英国《金融时报》的一篇文章中表示，希望2022年加息三次，但不排除其他可能性。他还表示：“我认为主席想要传达的信息是：我们没有走上任何特定的轨道。数据会告诉我们发生了什么。”明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里1月28日表示：“我们希望物价压力会随着供应链问题解决而自然得到缓解，这意味着美联储不得不做得更少。现在，委员会已经发出信号，大多数官员认为今年可能会有三次加息，每次大约25个基点。但是，我们必须看到相应的数据。”旧金山联储主席戴利1月31日表示：“多多参考才是合适的。假设2022年加息4次，利率达到1.25%，这是相当大的紧缩，但也是系统中留下的相当大的空间，因为中性利率是2.5%，这仍然在支持经济，而不是造成破坏。我认为这种平衡是应对我们面临的不确定性的恰当方式。”费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克2月1日表示：“我们能一次加息50个基点吗？可以的。但我们应该吗？我现在不太确定这一点……如果通胀保持在现在的水平，并继续下降，我不认为会加息50个基点。”瑞银认为，官员们以季度加息开始，回避了市场每次会议都加息的推断，保留了以后加速或放缓政策的选项。目前瑞银的基线预测是，FOMC将通过今年每个季度（3月、6月、9月和12月）加息25个基点来撤走宽松政策，并在5月的FOMC会议（或可能不迟于7月的会议）上开始缩减资产负债表。然而，该行认为，这条路径将高度依赖于数据，尤其是通胀数据以及反映通胀前景的数据。其中，5月份的通胀数据将是影响政策走向的分水岭：如果上半年（一直到5月）通胀数据出人意料地继续上升，那么在今年下半年，FOMC可能会从季度加息转向每次会议加息的节奏，6月FOMC会议可能会开始传达7月加息的信号，然后在随后的会议上，根据需要，连续加息25个基点。反过来，如果下半年通胀开始走软，FOMC也可能会暂停加息。这表明，新框架保留了美联储今年下半年所需的“灵活应变”的选择权，而从本质上看，美联储仍是在保持自由裁量权。这次真的不一样？美联储一直避免使用某种固定的规则来约束自己的货币政策决策，如在耶伦时期，为了保持自由裁量权，美联储常常推动理论先行，以创新性的学术研究成果来对框架不断更新。到了鲍威尔时代，尤其在疫情爆发后，这样的倾向更加明显。媒体甚至用“鲍威尔的美联储仿佛格林斯潘时的模样”来形容鲍威尔强调自由裁量，拒绝条条框框。但是自由裁量权有其缺点。在没有坚定承诺的情况下，美联储更难让市场相信，其实现2%的通胀目标是认真的。不过，瑞银认为，如今美联储的“数据依赖”与之前20年的情况截然不同，在耶伦作为联储主席的时期，尽管美联储政策有着非常明确的“数据依赖性”，耶伦经常说，“政策并没有按照预先设定的路线走”，但当时的加息路径基本上遵循了一种稳定、可预测的模式。比如2015年6月，旧金山联储主席Williams在当时的FOMC会议后发表讲话说：“这对利率意味着什么？正如我所说的，政策是依赖数据的。”演讲以“我不能告诉你具体加息日期……但无论如何我不能……”结束。但在那次会议上，美联储对2015年第四季度GDP的预测中值为1.8%-2.0%。最终结果证明，四季度GDP为1.9%。这说明，当时的美联储对经济数据很大程度上是有掌控的，美联储是可以预先设定政策路径的，然而这一次真的不一样。因为在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。拿最关键的通胀数据来说，近期费城联储调查的专业预测员对2021年第四季度GDP平减指数（衡量通货膨胀的常用指标）的预测离散度，高达金融危机期间的峰值。这种不确定性的增加让人想起上世纪90年代之前的那些年，也就是所谓的“通胀大缓和”之前的几十年。当下对于未来通胀的预期，分析师存在很多分歧，疫情导致的供应链中断无疑是其中的扰乱因素之一。除此之外，有分析师认为，与“通胀大缓和”时期菲利普斯曲线平坦化（指失业率下降，并没有带来通胀率的上升）相对的是，如今的经济环境——全球化趋势已经在2008年出现逆转，资本要素价格下行面临零利率约束，全球人口红利渐行渐远，老龄化社会的负担越来越重，货币政策也悄然降低了稳通胀的权重，货币当局不仅面临着更复杂的权衡，还需谨慎维护其独立性，这些因素都是呼唤通胀回归和菲利普斯曲线“复活”的力量。今天的美联储面临着更大的挑战，经济前景更加不确定，宏观经济数据的波动性要大得多。在专业预测人士眼中，即使是对已经过去的第四季度，经济预测分歧也非常大。因此，瑞银认为，在“大缓和”时期，数据依赖可能是一种逃避，但当前背景下的数据依赖性是必要的。考虑到广泛的不确定性和数据波动性，FOMC别无选择。政策将有更不稳定的风险虽然美联储“随机应变”式的新框架有助于其及时应对各种可能的结果，但重复一下前文，自由裁量权是有其缺点的，对于市场而言，这种灵活性也意味着更少的可预测性，可能更少的规律性。除此之外，如果央行依赖于数据，而数据相比近代历史更不稳定，这意味着政策也有更不稳定的风险，这也代表着宏观经济波动的另一个来源。而瑞银表示，央行对波动性加剧的数据的依赖，将是宏观经济新时代的一部分。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091584405,"gmtCreate":1643900259622,"gmtModify":1676533869437,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091584405","repostId":"2208360102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208360102","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1643859305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208360102?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-03 11:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs thinks that the present is a good opportunity for US stocks to \"buy on dips\". Where is the basis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208360102","media":"Wind万得","summary":"如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P 500 entered correction territory at one point last week as the Federal Reserve's policy adjustment sent markets volatile, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) believes that the pullback signals a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If history is anything to go by, corrections rarely turn into bear markets unless the economy enters a recession, the Wall Street firm said. \"Historically, S&P 500 corrections are generally good buying opportunities,\" David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in the report. \"A market correction is usually a good buying opportunity if the economy is not entering a recession.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve last week said it would raise interest rates soon, for the first time in more than three years, as part of a sweeping tightening of historically accommodative monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest he has been as chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy and inflation above target.</p><p>Feroli believes: \"While Powell still hasn't made a clear statement, he has made it clear that constant rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, and this is a risk that we have been watching.\"</p><p>\"The Fed is now chasing inflation and in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, whose comments were tougher than the initial statement. It affirms the Fed's position.</p><p>The shift has triggered a significant increase in volatility on Wall Street recently, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the start of the month; It was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>Technology stocks led the decline in the new year as investors dumped high and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 12% in January, down 15% from its all-time high. Goldman notes, though, that a 10% correction is not unusual in a given calendar year.</p><p>Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median 13% peak-to-trough decline in a calendar year, with more than 10% corrections in 62% of the years, according to Goldman Sachs. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen 33 pullbacks of 10% or more, with the median lasting about five months, including an 18% decline from high to trough, Goldman said.</p><p>If an investor bought the S&P 500 at a level 10% below its high, whether it was rock bottom at the time or not, the average investor returned 15% over the subsequent 12 months, the company said. In 21 non-recession corrections, the S&P 500 is typically down 15%, Goldman Sachs said.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>About halfway through the earnings season, the number of companies beating Wall Street's expectations on sales and profits was above average, although below levels in the early days of the recovery, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director at Barclays Capital, said corporate results have been good, but considerations include not only the Fed's change in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. \"Both things are a problem right now,\" he said. \"This time, gains may not save the day.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs thinks that the present is a good opportunity for US stocks to \"buy on dips\". Where is the basis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs thinks that the present is a good opportunity for US stocks to \"buy on dips\". Where is the basis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-03 11:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P 500 entered correction territory at one point last week as the Federal Reserve's policy adjustment sent markets volatile, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) believes that the pullback signals a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If history is anything to go by, corrections rarely turn into bear markets unless the economy enters a recession, the Wall Street firm said. \"Historically, S&P 500 corrections are generally good buying opportunities,\" David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in the report. \"A market correction is usually a good buying opportunity if the economy is not entering a recession.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve last week said it would raise interest rates soon, for the first time in more than three years, as part of a sweeping tightening of historically accommodative monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest he has been as chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy and inflation above target.</p><p>Feroli believes: \"While Powell still hasn't made a clear statement, he has made it clear that constant rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, and this is a risk that we have been watching.\"</p><p>\"The Fed is now chasing inflation and in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, whose comments were tougher than the initial statement. It affirms the Fed's position.</p><p>The shift has triggered a significant increase in volatility on Wall Street recently, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the start of the month; It was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>Technology stocks led the decline in the new year as investors dumped high and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 12% in January, down 15% from its all-time high. Goldman notes, though, that a 10% correction is not unusual in a given calendar year.</p><p>Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median 13% peak-to-trough decline in a calendar year, with more than 10% corrections in 62% of the years, according to Goldman Sachs. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen 33 pullbacks of 10% or more, with the median lasting about five months, including an 18% decline from high to trough, Goldman said.</p><p>If an investor bought the S&P 500 at a level 10% below its high, whether it was rock bottom at the time or not, the average investor returned 15% over the subsequent 12 months, the company said. In 21 non-recession corrections, the S&P 500 is typically down 15%, Goldman Sachs said.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>About halfway through the earnings season, the number of companies beating Wall Street's expectations on sales and profits was above average, although below levels in the early days of the recovery, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director at Barclays Capital, said corporate results have been good, but considerations include not only the Fed's change in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. \"Both things are a problem right now,\" he said. \"This time, gains may not save the day.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208360102","content_text":"标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上周一度进入回调区间，因美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策调整造成市场剧烈震荡，但高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为，此次回落标志着投资者有买入机会。这家华尔街公司说，如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。“从历史角度看，标普500指数修正通常是良好的买入机会，”高盛美国股市策略主管David Kostin在报告中称。“如果经济没有进入衰退，市场调整通常是好的买入机会。”美联储上周表示，将很快提高利率，这是三年多来的首次，是历来宽松的货币政策全面收紧的一部分。摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，鲍威尔是担任主席以来最强硬的一次。鲍威尔重申，当前的紧缩周期与上一个周期不同，劳动力市场强劲，经济强劲，通胀高于目标。Feroli认为：“虽然鲍威尔仍未明确表态，但他明确表示，在连续的会议上不断加息是一种可能，这也是我们一直在关注的风险。”均富(Grant Thornton)首席经济学家黛安斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“美联储现在正在追逐通胀，陷入了恐慌。”他的评论比最初的声明更加强硬。它肯定了美联储的立场。这一转变引发了华尔街最近波动显著增加，投资者艰难地根据利率风险对资产进行重新定价。标准普尔500指数1月下跌了约7%，较当月初的纪录高点下跌了8%；这也是自2020年3月以来最糟糕的一个月。在新的一年里，科技股领跌，投资者纷纷抛售高企、有时无利可图的股票。纳斯达克综合指数1月份下跌了约12%，较历史高点下跌了15%。不过，高盛指出，在一个给定的日历年里，10%的调整并不罕见。据高盛的数据，自1928年以来，标准普尔500指数经历了一个日历年中值13%的从高峰到低谷的下跌，62%的年份中有超过10%的修正。高盛说，自1950年以来，标普500指数已经出现了33次10%或以上的回调，中间值持续了约五个月，其中从高点到谷底的跌幅为18%。该公司表示，如果投资者在比高点低10%的水平买入标准普尔500指数，无论当时是否是谷底，那么在随后的12个月里，投资者的平均回报率为15%。高盛说，在21次非衰退调整中，标普500指数通常下跌15%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的一项分析显示，在财报季约过半之际，销售和利润超过华尔街预期的公司数量高于平均水平，尽管低于复苏初期的水平。不过巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)董事总经理Maneesh Deshpande表示，企业业绩一直不错，但考虑因素不仅包括美联储改变货币政策，还包括美联储在看似疲弱的经济中加息。“这两件事现在都是个问题，”他说。“这一次，收益可能无法挽救局面。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937627260,"gmtCreate":1663426920450,"gmtModify":1676537269149,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937627260","repostId":"1129633132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129633132","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663378125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129633132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129633132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.</li><li>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.</li><li>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.</li><li>How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?</li><li>Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f531f7b392a181968ec72c4a8f89f8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by &#34;mining&#34;. The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new &#34;proof-of-stake&#34; approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.</p><p><b>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming &#34;mining&#34;</b></p><p>The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872c823bfeb3e06182d2d3f6ab87879\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ethereum.org</span></p><p>Mining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.</p><p>In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.</p><p>Some miners may go to work on a &#34;hard fork&#34; of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it&#39;s unclear whether mining this will be profitable.</p><p>Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.</p><p><b>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales</b></p><p>Following Nvidia&#39;s revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.</p><p>The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.</p><p>However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe36f2d53f47c0d7e5cdf964d09c67fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BinInfoCharts</span></p><p>This implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.</p><p>This turned out to account very well for Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia&#39;s Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8223bcd7d3f44c30f5c60970c616fe0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>Note that the revenue impact doesn&#39;t only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.</p><p><b>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia&#39;s sales will be, at best, ugly</b></p><p>The model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it&#39;s not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.</p><p>If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia&#39;s RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00465fed542c67659f55786fcdf366b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>The model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.</p><p>This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn&#39;t absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.</p><p>As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren&#39;t comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0a909d1edae7870adea14e3f987d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>So the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won&#39;t fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia&#39;s crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum&#39;s mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.</p><p><b>How will the Merge affect Nvidia&#39;s expected RTX 40 series launch?</b></p><p>Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5990337b62c49447e21da39a199e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><p>Various tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.</p><p>The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It&#39;s not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.</p><p>Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.</p><p>Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don&#39;t have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD&#39;s next-generation GPUs have only been &#34;teased&#34; but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.</p><p>The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.</p><p>Since<i>none</i>of the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.</p><p>Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.</p><p>Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.</p><p><b>Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</b></p><p>Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?</p><p>When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.</p><p>If Nvidia really wasn&#39;t accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.</p><p>In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I&#39;m assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.</p><p>Despite this, I&#39;m still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia&#39;s next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.</p><p>Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia&#39;s ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8026f845d3af92219bdc2bb1bc67be19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>According to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia&#39;s future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.</p><p>Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I&#39;m pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I&#39;m waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia&#39;s price even lower.</p><p>Also, I&#39;m waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 09:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129633132","content_text":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by \"mining\". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new \"proof-of-stake\" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming \"mining\"The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:Ethereum.orgMining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.Some miners may go to work on a \"hard fork\" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card salesFollowing Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:BinInfoChartsThis implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:Mark HibbenNote that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, uglyThe model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:Mark HibbenThe model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:Mark HibbenSo the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:NvidiaVarious tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been \"teased\" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.Sincenoneof the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:Mark HibbenAccording to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019158814,"gmtCreate":1648563118186,"gmtModify":1676534354558,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019158814","repostId":"2222916938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2222916938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648509590,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222916938?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 07:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"RECORD SCALE REPURCHASES! Can U.S. stocks usher in a bull market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222916938","media":"市场资讯","summary":"　　在全球股市下跌的大背景下，回购股票对于上市公司来说似乎是更加明智的策略。　　据英国《金融时报》报道，高盛的统计数据显示，今年迄今为止，美国公司股票回购规模已经达到创纪录的3190亿美元，而2021年同期的规模为2670亿美元。　　高盛分析师近期将2022年的股票回购预期规模上调至创纪录的1万亿美元，比去年增长了12%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Against the backdrop of global stock market declines, repurchasing shares seems to be a more sensible strategy for public companies.</p><p>According to the Financial Times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>U.S. company share buybacks have reached a record $319 billion so far this year, compared with $267 billion in the same period in 2021, according to statistics.</p><p>Goldman Sachs analysts recently raised the size of their share buyback estimates for 2022 to a record $1 trillion, up 12% from last year. The S&P 500 rose 27% last year after a corporate buyback boom.</p><p><b>Giants are moving to buy back</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the use of cash and other methods by listed companies to buy back a certain amount of the Company's outstanding shares from the stock market. After the share repurchase is completed, the listed company can cancel the repurchased shares, and by reducing the number of outstanding shares, the earnings per share will be increased, thus pushing the stock price up.</p><p>Michael Voris, head of structured equities at Goldman Sachs, said: \"The breadth of stock purchases by different industry groups has reached its highest level in several years, and volumes have increased. This is largely due to the market backdrop and not other factors.\"</p><p>According to the Financial Times, the average share price of the Russell 3000 has fallen more than 30% this year, allowing companies that believe their shares are undervalued to buy more at the same price. Earnings growth is also expected to slow as groups grapple with rising inflation and supply chain issues, adding to the attractiveness of buybacks as a way to smooth earnings.</p><p>On top of that, profitable energy companies have also started to accelerate share buybacks.</p><p>Share buybacks in the energy sector nearly tripled year over year last year, outpacing the 70% year-over-year gain for the S&P 500 as a whole, according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>After a five-year hiatus in share buybacks, it also announced a $10 billion buyback program last October. Shares of ExxonMobil have risen more than 30% this year.</p><p>Recently, Chinese stocks have also joined the repurchase army. Alibaba announced its share repurchase last week, and the repurchase scale increased from $15 billion to $25 billion, equivalent to nearly one-tenth of the market value, setting a record for Chinese stock repurchase.</p><p><b>What else is the market worried about</b></p><p>At present, the U.S. stock market has rebounded for the second consecutive week. The S&P 500 index has risen by more than 8.1% in the past two weeks, the largest two-week gain since the end of 2020.</p><p>Although the repurchase of U.S. companies can boost the stock price in the short term, recently, with the flattening of the yield curve of U.S. bonds, concerns about the economic outlook have risen, and the potential impact of monetary policy tightening on liquidity may become a major risk to suppress the upward space of U.S. stocks.</p><p>On March 25, the yield on the 10-year Treasury soared to nearly 2.5%, up a full percentage point since early December. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury, which tracks short-term interest rate expectations, also quickly soared to 2.3%, both of which are their highest levels since May 2019.</p><p>At present, the market is concerned about whether the yield curves of 2-year and 10-year U.S. bonds will go upside down. From historical experience, before every recession in the past 50 years, the U.S. yield curve has been inverted, and only one of them has been a false positive. When the yield of short-term debt climbs beyond the longer-term Treasury Bond, it indicates that the cost of short-term borrowing is higher than that of longer-term borrowing. In this case, enterprises often find that operating costs are rising, and they tend to slow down or even shelve investment. Consumer borrowing costs have also risen, slowing down consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The economy eventually fell into contraction and unemployment climbed.</p><p>Analysts at Mizuho International warn that risky assets will ultimately be unable to withstand the huge impact of rising discount rates, and economic growth will be equally unable to withstand it. That is, as the Federal Reserve begins to stride to tighten policy, the stock market seems to have to make some concessions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Michael Wilson, chief U.S. stock analyst, said the recent rally in U.S. stocks is a good opportunity to sell and build positions in a more defensive way. He upgraded his rating on utilities in the traditional safe-haven sector to \"overweight.\" \"This is nothing more than a bear market rally. Although this may not be quite over yet, this is a rally worth selling off. Investors should take advantage of the opportunity to adjust their positions as the US economy is in a late-cycle expansion phase\".</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RECORD SCALE REPURCHASES! Can U.S. stocks usher in a bull market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRECORD SCALE REPURCHASES! Can U.S. stocks usher in a bull market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-29 07:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Against the backdrop of global stock market declines, repurchasing shares seems to be a more sensible strategy for public companies.</p><p>According to the Financial Times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>U.S. company share buybacks have reached a record $319 billion so far this year, compared with $267 billion in the same period in 2021, according to statistics.</p><p>Goldman Sachs analysts recently raised the size of their share buyback estimates for 2022 to a record $1 trillion, up 12% from last year. The S&P 500 rose 27% last year after a corporate buyback boom.</p><p><b>Giants are moving to buy back</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the use of cash and other methods by listed companies to buy back a certain amount of the Company's outstanding shares from the stock market. After the share repurchase is completed, the listed company can cancel the repurchased shares, and by reducing the number of outstanding shares, the earnings per share will be increased, thus pushing the stock price up.</p><p>Michael Voris, head of structured equities at Goldman Sachs, said: \"The breadth of stock purchases by different industry groups has reached its highest level in several years, and volumes have increased. This is largely due to the market backdrop and not other factors.\"</p><p>According to the Financial Times, the average share price of the Russell 3000 has fallen more than 30% this year, allowing companies that believe their shares are undervalued to buy more at the same price. Earnings growth is also expected to slow as groups grapple with rising inflation and supply chain issues, adding to the attractiveness of buybacks as a way to smooth earnings.</p><p>On top of that, profitable energy companies have also started to accelerate share buybacks.</p><p>Share buybacks in the energy sector nearly tripled year over year last year, outpacing the 70% year-over-year gain for the S&P 500 as a whole, according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>After a five-year hiatus in share buybacks, it also announced a $10 billion buyback program last October. Shares of ExxonMobil have risen more than 30% this year.</p><p>Recently, Chinese stocks have also joined the repurchase army. Alibaba announced its share repurchase last week, and the repurchase scale increased from $15 billion to $25 billion, equivalent to nearly one-tenth of the market value, setting a record for Chinese stock repurchase.</p><p><b>What else is the market worried about</b></p><p>At present, the U.S. stock market has rebounded for the second consecutive week. The S&P 500 index has risen by more than 8.1% in the past two weeks, the largest two-week gain since the end of 2020.</p><p>Although the repurchase of U.S. companies can boost the stock price in the short term, recently, with the flattening of the yield curve of U.S. bonds, concerns about the economic outlook have risen, and the potential impact of monetary policy tightening on liquidity may become a major risk to suppress the upward space of U.S. stocks.</p><p>On March 25, the yield on the 10-year Treasury soared to nearly 2.5%, up a full percentage point since early December. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury, which tracks short-term interest rate expectations, also quickly soared to 2.3%, both of which are their highest levels since May 2019.</p><p>At present, the market is concerned about whether the yield curves of 2-year and 10-year U.S. bonds will go upside down. From historical experience, before every recession in the past 50 years, the U.S. yield curve has been inverted, and only one of them has been a false positive. When the yield of short-term debt climbs beyond the longer-term Treasury Bond, it indicates that the cost of short-term borrowing is higher than that of longer-term borrowing. In this case, enterprises often find that operating costs are rising, and they tend to slow down or even shelve investment. Consumer borrowing costs have also risen, slowing down consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The economy eventually fell into contraction and unemployment climbed.</p><p>Analysts at Mizuho International warn that risky assets will ultimately be unable to withstand the huge impact of rising discount rates, and economic growth will be equally unable to withstand it. That is, as the Federal Reserve begins to stride to tighten policy, the stock market seems to have to make some concessions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Michael Wilson, chief U.S. stock analyst, said the recent rally in U.S. stocks is a good opportunity to sell and build positions in a more defensive way. He upgraded his rating on utilities in the traditional safe-haven sector to \"overweight.\" \"This is nothing more than a bear market rally. Although this may not be quite over yet, this is a rally worth selling off. Investors should take advantage of the opportunity to adjust their positions as the US economy is in a late-cycle expansion phase\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-03-28/doc-imcwiwss8642471.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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Index","GS":"高盛","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-03-28/doc-imcwiwss8642471.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2222916938","content_text":"在全球股市下跌的大背景下，回购股票对于上市公司来说似乎是更加明智的策略。据英国《金融时报》报道，高盛的统计数据显示，今年迄今为止，美国公司股票回购规模已经达到创纪录的3190亿美元，而2021年同期的规模为2670亿美元。高盛分析师近期将2022年的股票回购预期规模上调至创纪录的1万亿美元，比去年增长了12%。去年，企业回购热潮推动标普500指数上涨了27%。　巨头纷纷出手回购股票回购，是指上市公司利用现金等方式，从股票市场上购回本公司发行在外的一定数额的股票。在股票回购完成后，上市公司可以将所回购的股票注销，通过减少发行在外的股票数量，拉高每股盈利，进而推动股价上涨。高盛结构性股票业务主管Michael Voris表示：“不同行业集团购买股票的广度达到了几年来的最高水平，而且成交量有所增加。这在很大程度上是由于市场背景，而非其他因素。”据《金融时报》报道，罗素3000指数的平均股价今年已下跌逾30%，这使得那些认为自己的股票被低估的公司可以以同样的价格买入更多股票。随着各集团应对通胀加剧和供应链问题，收益增长预计也将放缓，这将增加回购作为一种平滑收益方式的吸引力。除此之外，收益颇丰的能源公司也开始加速股票回购。根据标普道琼斯指数的数据，去年能源行业的股票回购量同比几乎增长了三倍，超过了标普500指数整体70%的同比涨幅。埃克森美孚在中断股票回购五年后，也于去年10月宣布了规模100亿美元的回购计划。今年以来，埃克森美孚的股价已上涨超30%。中概股近期也加入了回购大军，阿里巴巴上周宣布进行股票回购，回购规模从150亿美元增至250亿美元，回购规模相当于近十分之一的市值，创下中概股回购纪录。市场还在担忧什么眼下美国股市已经连续第二周反弹，标普500指数过去两周的涨幅超8.1%，是2020年底以来最大两周涨幅。虽然美国公司回购能在短期内提振股价，但是近期随着美债收益率曲线不断趋平，有关经济前景的担忧有所上升，而货币政策收紧对流动性的潜在冲击可能成为打压美股向上空间的重大风险。3月25日，10年期美债收益率飙升至近2.5%，自12月初以来上涨了整整一个百分点。与此同时，追踪短期利率预期的2年期美债收益率也迅速飙升至2.3%，两者均为2019年5月以来的最高水平。目前市场关注2年期和10年期美债收益率曲线是否会走向倒挂。从历史经验看，过去50年每逢经济衰退前，美国收益率曲线都会出现倒挂，其间只有一次是误报。当短债收益率攀升超过较长期国债，即预示短期借款成本要高于较长期借款。在这种情况下，企业经常会发现运营成本升高，便倾向于放慢甚至是搁置投资。消费者借款成本亦攀升，由此占美国经济活动2/3以上的消费支出便会放缓。经济最终陷入萎缩，失业率攀升。瑞穗国际的分析师警告称，风险资产最终将无法抵御贴现率上升的巨大影响，经济增长也同样无法抵御。即随着美联储开始大步收紧政策，股市似乎不得不做出一些让步。摩根士丹利首席美股分析师Michael Wilson称，美国股市最近的反弹是一个卖出并以更防御性的方式建仓的好机会。他将传统避险板块公用事业类股的评级调高至“增持”。“这不过是一轮熊市反弹。尽管这可能还没有完全结束，但这是一次值得抛售的反弹。投资者应利用机会调整持仓，因美国经济正处于周期后期扩张阶段”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"DJX":0.6,"GS":0.9,"XOM":0.64,"TNmain":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"QLD":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"YMmain":0.72,"SH":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QID":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".IXIC":0.62,"QNETCN":0.72,"UPRO":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"TTTN":0.72,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035751472,"gmtCreate":1647699724057,"gmtModify":1676534259279,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035751472","repostId":"2220670637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220670637","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647671973,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220670637?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-19 14:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220670637","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，美股反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦？1970s大通胀时代下的资产轮动或许能够提供借鉴。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed, but U.S. stocks rebounded sharply.</p><p>In this regard, Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, known as \"the most pessimistic analyst on Wall Street\", believes that,<b>The rally is nothing more than a \"temporary ceasefire\" in the bear market, and a \"recession shock\" is about to begin.</b></p><p>Hartnett explains that the historic short squeeze has largely contributed to the widespread market melt:</p><p>This is nothing more than a \"bear market ceasefire rally\" as the world continues to plunge into stagflationary purgatory,<b>A real bear market won't start until the recession begins, sometime in the second half of 2022.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Hartnett argues that the prolonged lows of interest rates in the 2020s, superimposed with inflation, imply a rapid and volatile boom-to-bust economic and investment cycle.</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, Hartnett review the asset rotation in the era of great inflation in the 1970s.</p><p><b>Early in the period, markets were initially bullish on real assets, commodities, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS) (TIPS), small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, just a few short years later, during the great stagflation shock of 1973/4, only commodities sustained strength.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>By 1974-1981, it was time to buy small-cap value stocks and real estate, and commodities were still doing well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>What happens next? It will depend on whether the Fed has the courage to raise interest rates to 20% in the short term, as Volcker did in 1981, even if that means a collapse of risky assets.</p><p>Hartnett also gave advice on how to hedge against the pain that the market may face next:</p><p>The best recession hedge is betting on a \"steepening yield curve.\" The best stagflation hedge is betting on a falling dollar The best soft landing hedge is betting on non-U.S. stocks<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-19 14:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed, but U.S. stocks rebounded sharply.</p><p>In this regard, Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, known as \"the most pessimistic analyst on Wall Street\", believes that,<b>The rally is nothing more than a \"temporary ceasefire\" in the bear market, and a \"recession shock\" is about to begin.</b></p><p>Hartnett explains that the historic short squeeze has largely contributed to the widespread market melt:</p><p>This is nothing more than a \"bear market ceasefire rally\" as the world continues to plunge into stagflationary purgatory,<b>A real bear market won't start until the recession begins, sometime in the second half of 2022.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Hartnett argues that the prolonged lows of interest rates in the 2020s, superimposed with inflation, imply a rapid and volatile boom-to-bust economic and investment cycle.</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, Hartnett review the asset rotation in the era of great inflation in the 1970s.</p><p><b>Early in the period, markets were initially bullish on real assets, commodities, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS) (TIPS), small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, just a few short years later, during the great stagflation shock of 1973/4, only commodities sustained strength.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>By 1974-1981, it was time to buy small-cap value stocks and real estate, and commodities were still doing well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>What happens next? It will depend on whether the Fed has the courage to raise interest rates to 20% in the short term, as Volcker did in 1981, even if that means a collapse of risky assets.</p><p>Hartnett also gave advice on how to hedge against the pain that the market may face next:</p><p>The best recession hedge is betting on a \"steepening yield curve.\" The best stagflation hedge is betting on a falling dollar The best soft landing hedge is betting on non-U.S. stocks<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654678\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","TIPS":"Tianrong Internet Products and Services, Inc.","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654678","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220670637","content_text":"上周，美联储加息落地，美股却大幅反弹。对此，有“华尔街最悲观分析师”之称的美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，这场反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。Hartnett解释道，历史性的逼空在很大程度上促成了市场的大范围融涨：这不过是一场“熊市停火反弹”（\"bear market ceasefire rally\" ），因为世界继续陷入滞胀的炼狱，真正的熊市要到衰退开始时才会开始，时间是2022年下半年的某个时候。Hartnett认为，2020年代利率的长期低点叠加着通胀，意味着快速且不稳定的从繁荣到萧条的经济和投资周期。以史为鉴，Hartnett复盘了上世纪七十年代大通胀时代下的资产轮动。在这个时期的初期，市场最初是看涨实物资产、大宗商品、通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)、小盘价值股和新兴市场。然而，短短几年之后，在1973/4年的大滞胀冲击中，只有大宗商品持续坚挺。到1974年至1981年，就到了买进小盘价值股、房地产的时候，此时大宗商品依然表现不错。接下来会发生什么？这将取决于美联储是否有勇气像1981年沃尔克那样，在短期内将利率提高到20%，即使这也意味着风险资产的崩溃。对于如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦，Hartnett也给出了建议：最好的衰退对冲是押注“收益率曲线变陡”最好的滞胀对冲是押注美元贬值最好的软着陆对冲是押注非美国股票","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"QLD":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"DXD":0.6,"SPY":0.85,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TIPS":1,".IXIC":0.9,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"DJX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}