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一路向北666
2025-10-05
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Bitcoin Hits Record High, U.S. Government Shutdown Prompts Flood into Risky Assets
一路向北666
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za","listText":"ni za","text":"ni za","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/486105934852680","repostId":"1119616083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119616083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1759640075,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119616083?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-10-05 12:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bitcoin Hits Record High, U.S. Government Shutdown Prompts Flood into Risky Assets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119616083","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"投资者正在寻求避险资产。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 5, Bitcoin exceeded $125,000 per coin in intraday trading, setting a new high, rising 2.5% within the day. 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While Bitcoin was in a different position during the last government shutdown, the linkage between the asset and traditional risk assets was low.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Hits Record High, U.S. Government Shutdown Prompts Flood into Risky Assets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Hits Record High, U.S. Government Shutdown Prompts Flood into Risky Assets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-10-05 12:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 5, Bitcoin exceeded $125,000 per coin in intraday trading, setting a new high, rising 2.5% within the day. This reflects that investor sentiment may be shifting, viewing cryptocurrencies as safe-haven assets similar to gold in response to ongoing economic uncertainty.</p><p>Investors speculated that the government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, would prompt investors to turn to safe-haven assets, with market participants beginning to call it \"devaluation trading\". Joshua Lim, co-head of markets at cryptocurrency prime broker FalconX, said: \"At a time when a wide range of assets, including equities, gold and even collectibles such as Pokémon cards, are at record highs, it is not surprising that Bitcoin is benefiting from the dollar depreciation narrative.\" Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said: \"The impact of this government shutdown is not trivial, and Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise during this period. While Bitcoin was in a different position during the last government shutdown, the linkage between the asset and traditional risk assets was low.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9712b6f035d7a01dae3855140d621802","relate_stocks":{"CAN":"嘉楠科技","BMNR":"BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","SBET":"SharpLink Gaming","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","MARA":"MARA Holdings","MSTR":"Strategy"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119616083","content_text":"10月5日，比特币盘中突破125000美元/枚，创下新高，日内涨2.5%。这反映出投资者情绪可能正在转变，将加密货币视为类似于黄金的避险资产，以应对持续的经济不确定性。投资者猜测，周三开始的政府停摆将促使投资者转向避险资产，市场参与者开始称之为“贬值交易”。加密货币主经纪商FalconX的市场联席主管Joshua Lim表示：“在包括股票、黄金乃至宝可梦卡片等收藏品在内的众多资产均创历史新高之际，比特币从美元贬值叙事中受益并不令人意外。”渣打银行数字资产研究全球主管Geoff Kendrick表示：“此次政府停摆的影响非同小可，预计比特币在此期间将继续上涨。虽然在上一次政府停摆期间，比特币处于不同境地，但当时该资产与传统风险资产的联动性较低。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BMNR":1.1,"BTBT":1.1,"MSTR":1.1,"COIN":1.1,"CAN":1.1,"SBET":1.1,"MARA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":476420621767472,"gmtCreate":1757341111219,"gmtModify":1757341114259,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848121308128","idStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CIHKY\">$招商银行ADR(CIHKY)$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CIHKY\">$招商银行ADR(CIHKY)$</a> 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","text":"Rw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":39,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/869483387","repostId":"2159639211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159639211","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628922059,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159639211?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 14:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Alipay collapsed\"? It turned out that it was really caused by grabbing red envelopes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159639211","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"今日，有许多网友反映支付宝页面进不去或者进去了没反应。","content":"<p>On August 14th, Alipay's official Weibo announced:<b>At around 13: 14 today, due to a large number of users pouring into Alipay to participate in the Tanabata red envelope activity, the page was shortly unstable and quickly recovered. Other Alipay services are also working normally.</b></p><p>Today, many netizens reported that the Alipay page could not be entered or there was no response after entering, and then the topic \"Alipay collapsed\" appeared<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Hot search. Some netizens speculated that it would be caused by too many red envelopes on Tanabata.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b170cd822fbd50509a46a2a2182257\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"143\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Alipay collapsed\"? It turned out that it was really caused by grabbing red envelopes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Alipay collapsed\"? It turned out that it was really caused by grabbing red envelopes\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-14 14:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 14th, Alipay's official Weibo announced:<b>At around 13: 14 today, due to a large number of users pouring into Alipay to participate in the Tanabata red envelope activity, the page was shortly unstable and quickly recovered. Other Alipay services are also working normally.</b></p><p>Today, many netizens reported that the Alipay page could not be entered or there was no response after entering, and then the topic \"Alipay collapsed\" appeared<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Hot search. Some netizens speculated that it would be caused by too many red envelopes on Tanabata.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b170cd822fbd50509a46a2a2182257\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"143\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a0b0db8875fcc1b244994517c9d7a74","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159639211","content_text":"8月14日消息，支付宝官方微博宣布：今天13点14分左右，由于大量用户涌入支付宝参与抢七夕红包活动，页面出现了短暂的不稳定，很快就恢复了。其他的支付宝服务也一切正常。\n今日，有许多网友反映支付宝页面进不去或者进去了没反应，随后话题“支付宝崩了”登上微博热搜。有网友猜测，会不会是七夕红包发太多了导致的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251303710875768,"gmtCreate":1702390800584,"gmtModify":1702390803199,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"Z","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071945986","repostId":"9070144090","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9070144090,"gmtCreate":1657034019110,"gmtModify":1676535935892,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌等你回來沒有的話","listText":"👌等你回來沒有的話","text":"👌等你回來沒有的話","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070144090","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1064,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024478589,"gmtCreate":1653916940041,"gmtModify":1676535362224,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Z","listText":"Z","text":"Z","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024478589","repostId":"614750932","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614750932,"gmtCreate":1653896069000,"gmtModify":1676533163981,"author":{"id":"3577852034187700","authorId":"3577852034187700","name":"经济观察报","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64ac2aa784ef0f271ddeb45c7dc72bc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577852034187700","authorIdStr":"3577852034187700"},"themes":[],"title":"清明上河圖是如何繪成的？（3）","htmlText":"文/陳季冰 近來許多人喜歡說一句話：商業創造文明。 有宋一代，這句話得到了完美的證明——商業的繁榮促進了經濟增長，經濟的增長又顯著地推動了社會進步。而社會進步結出的首要碩果，便是教育的昌明。 重視教育是儒家文化源遠流長的傳統。早期的儒家先師無一不是偉大的教育家，可以說，無論是孔子、孟子，還是荀子，他們的身份首先是教師，其次纔是思想家。然而平心而論，在中國歷史上，尊師重教只能說是一種普遍的社會氛圍，真正有能力實踐它的只是少數精英。 而宋朝是一個鶴立雞羣的時代，在20世紀以前的華夏曆史上，它的教育普及程度堪稱前無古人、後無來者。 “興文教，抑武事”是貫穿整個宋代的立國之道。歷朝天子和朝廷都積極鼓勵辦學興教，這是宋代教育事業昌盛的政治前提。然而我認爲，這一根本國策能夠取得實際成效，而非流於一紙空文，歸根結底是因爲宋朝有着比其他任何朝代都更加雄厚的經濟實力。 在人類歷史的絕大多數時期，受教育一直是普通百姓可望不可即的奢侈品。昔日孟子教導君主時，將“謹庠序之教，申之以孝悌之義”這句話緊接在“五十者衣帛”、“七十者食肉”、“數口之家無飢”之後（《孟子·梁惠王上》），實際上說出了一條近乎於常識的真理：有了錢，才談得上興學。 宋代在中國歷史上頭一次建立起了完備的官辦教育體系，它由不同層次的各類學校構成—— 位於這個體系頂端的，除了專供皇族子弟就學的特殊的“宗子學”外，最高層的是國子監管轄下的各類學校，如國子學、太學、四門學、律學、武學、弘文館（廣文館學）等；次一層是朝廷各部門管理的專業類學校，如隸屬於太醫寺的醫學、隸屬於太史局的算學、隸屬於翰林院書藝局的書學、隸屬於翰林院畫圖局的畫學等。上述三種學校都屬“國家級”。 在地方這一層級上，則有官辦的府學、州學、縣學。 除此之外，還有專司“教導童稚”的官辦小學，它們多附於州學或縣學。 僅在北宋160年間，由官方推動的大規模興學熱潮就有三、四次。","listText":"文/陳季冰 近來許多人喜歡說一句話：商業創造文明。 有宋一代，這句話得到了完美的證明——商業的繁榮促進了經濟增長，經濟的增長又顯著地推動了社會進步。而社會進步結出的首要碩果，便是教育的昌明。 重視教育是儒家文化源遠流長的傳統。早期的儒家先師無一不是偉大的教育家，可以說，無論是孔子、孟子，還是荀子，他們的身份首先是教師，其次纔是思想家。然而平心而論，在中國歷史上，尊師重教只能說是一種普遍的社會氛圍，真正有能力實踐它的只是少數精英。 而宋朝是一個鶴立雞羣的時代，在20世紀以前的華夏曆史上，它的教育普及程度堪稱前無古人、後無來者。 “興文教，抑武事”是貫穿整個宋代的立國之道。歷朝天子和朝廷都積極鼓勵辦學興教，這是宋代教育事業昌盛的政治前提。然而我認爲，這一根本國策能夠取得實際成效，而非流於一紙空文，歸根結底是因爲宋朝有着比其他任何朝代都更加雄厚的經濟實力。 在人類歷史的絕大多數時期，受教育一直是普通百姓可望不可即的奢侈品。昔日孟子教導君主時，將“謹庠序之教，申之以孝悌之義”這句話緊接在“五十者衣帛”、“七十者食肉”、“數口之家無飢”之後（《孟子·梁惠王上》），實際上說出了一條近乎於常識的真理：有了錢，才談得上興學。 宋代在中國歷史上頭一次建立起了完備的官辦教育體系，它由不同層次的各類學校構成—— 位於這個體系頂端的，除了專供皇族子弟就學的特殊的“宗子學”外，最高層的是國子監管轄下的各類學校，如國子學、太學、四門學、律學、武學、弘文館（廣文館學）等；次一層是朝廷各部門管理的專業類學校，如隸屬於太醫寺的醫學、隸屬於太史局的算學、隸屬於翰林院書藝局的書學、隸屬於翰林院畫圖局的畫學等。上述三種學校都屬“國家級”。 在地方這一層級上，則有官辦的府學、州學、縣學。 除此之外，還有專司“教導童稚”的官辦小學，它們多附於州學或縣學。 僅在北宋160年間，由官方推動的大規模興學熱潮就有三、四次。","text":"文/陳季冰 近來許多人喜歡說一句話：商業創造文明。 有宋一代，這句話得到了完美的證明——商業的繁榮促進了經濟增長，經濟的增長又顯著地推動了社會進步。而社會進步結出的首要碩果，便是教育的昌明。 重視教育是儒家文化源遠流長的傳統。早期的儒家先師無一不是偉大的教育家，可以說，無論是孔子、孟子，還是荀子，他們的身份首先是教師，其次纔是思想家。然而平心而論，在中國歷史上，尊師重教只能說是一種普遍的社會氛圍，真正有能力實踐它的只是少數精英。 而宋朝是一個鶴立雞羣的時代，在20世紀以前的華夏曆史上，它的教育普及程度堪稱前無古人、後無來者。 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nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951000391","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376839315,"gmtCreate":1619101706237,"gmtModify":1704719697564,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376839315","repostId":"1164615543","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164615543","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1619072330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164615543?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's just a temporary pause, and the outperformance of value stocks is not over yet!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164615543","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。苹果和特斯拉等股票近日再次领涨股市，引发了一些人对和经济形势密切相关的价值股的跑赢行情是否已经结束的质疑。不过，从市场最近的动向看，价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，","content":"<p>The return of value stocks is only a temporary pause, not a loss of momentum.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Stocks have led the stock market again in recent days, which has caused some people to question whether the outperformance of value stocks closely related to the economic situation has ended. However, judging from the recent market trends, the return of value stocks is only a temporary pause, rather than a loss of momentum.</p><p>Value stocks have risen since late last year. News of the advent of COVID-19 vaccine has boosted confidence in a strong recovery in the global economy and boosted the earnings prospects of financial, manufacturing, energy and other commodity-related companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa5720be71e09cdcb00e83d193d31439\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the recent decline in interest rates and inflation expectations has triggered another round of market reversal. Past month<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>The S&P 500 Value Equity ETF (IVE) rose 3.7%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a>The S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) rose 7.7%. In a note to clients, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said that the recent outperformance of growth stocks is mainly due to five companies: Apple (AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>(MSFT),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent companies Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA).</p><p>\"In the short term, it's usually not a good sign that the market suddenly shifts towards high-profile growth stocks,\" Colas wrote, saying that investors piled into large-cap tech stocks during the market downturn last year. The recent return of funds to big-name technology stocks shows that investors are still hesitant to bet on the theme of economic restart before increasing their holdings of cyclical stocks, and they may be waiting for more evidence to prove that economic recovery will come.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Wealth management analyst Lisa Shalett is also skeptical of the recent growth stock rally, and she doesn't see room for economic rebound narrowing in the current cycle. If the economic rebound falls short of expectations, the Fed will have to keep interest rates ultra-low, which will be more beneficial to growth stocks.</p><p>In a note to clients, Shalet said she expects growth in this business cycle to be broader and more robust than the previous one, with credit growth likely to resume. In this round of growth, fiscal policy-whether by increasing government spending or other stimulus measures-may push up inflation.</p><p>Inflation will cause interest rates to rise, and banks and commodity producers will benefit from it.</p><p>Hence<b>，</b>She advises investors to turn to<b>Cyclical, International, Value and Quality Stocks</b>。</p><p>Investors who choose passive funds do prefer value stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>As of last week, value ETFs had recorded net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, compared with growth ETFs' largest net outflows in six weeks, equity and quantitative strategists said.</p><p>Bank of America strategists therefore believe that value stocks have more room to rise. For example, value stocks previously outperformed growth stocks by only 20%, compared with growth stocks previously outperforming value stocks by 60%. In addition, value outperforming growth stocks only appeared in the seventh month of the value recovery, after growth stocks had outperformed value stocks for 33 months. The profit growth of value stocks has not yet peaked, fund managers still allocate less to value stocks, and active funds allocate less to value stocks by about 30%.</p><p>While the stock market valuations are high right now, Abhay Deshpande, veteran value stock fund manager and chief investment officer at Centerstone Investors, has been investing in the stock market with all his strength.</p><p>Centerstone finds investment opportunities emerging in international small and mid-cap stocks, including small emerging markets, which were once overlooked by investors as investors previously flocked to large-cap technology stocks and large emerging markets such as China. Deshpande believes that with the popularization of COVID-19 vaccine and the recovery of the global economy, tourism and gambling industries in emerging Asian markets will become fields full of development potential and investment prospects.</p><p>GoodHaven fund manager Larry Pitkowsky (Larry Pitkowsky) also believes that the current stock market valuation is high, but he is looking for high-quality value stocks he likes among financial stocks. Pikowski believes that the stock market is not fully reflecting the tailwinds that rising interest rates will bring to financial stocks, and he is adding to his holdings in stocks such as insurer Progressive (PGR). He said that Progressive's return on capital is high, its revenue continues to grow, and the company's management ability is also strong, but its stock price is relatively low, with P/E only between 14 times and 16 times.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's just a temporary pause, and the outperformance of value stocks is not over yet!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's just a temporary pause, and the outperformance of value stocks is not over yet!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-22 14:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The return of value stocks is only a temporary pause, not a loss of momentum.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Stocks have led the stock market again in recent days, which has caused some people to question whether the outperformance of value stocks closely related to the economic situation has ended. However, judging from the recent market trends, the return of value stocks is only a temporary pause, rather than a loss of momentum.</p><p>Value stocks have risen since late last year. News of the advent of COVID-19 vaccine has boosted confidence in a strong recovery in the global economy and boosted the earnings prospects of financial, manufacturing, energy and other commodity-related companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa5720be71e09cdcb00e83d193d31439\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the recent decline in interest rates and inflation expectations has triggered another round of market reversal. Past month<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>The S&P 500 Value Equity ETF (IVE) rose 3.7%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a>The S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) rose 7.7%. In a note to clients, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said that the recent outperformance of growth stocks is mainly due to five companies: Apple (AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>(MSFT),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent companies Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA).</p><p>\"In the short term, it's usually not a good sign that the market suddenly shifts towards high-profile growth stocks,\" Colas wrote, saying that investors piled into large-cap tech stocks during the market downturn last year. The recent return of funds to big-name technology stocks shows that investors are still hesitant to bet on the theme of economic restart before increasing their holdings of cyclical stocks, and they may be waiting for more evidence to prove that economic recovery will come.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Wealth management analyst Lisa Shalett is also skeptical of the recent growth stock rally, and she doesn't see room for economic rebound narrowing in the current cycle. If the economic rebound falls short of expectations, the Fed will have to keep interest rates ultra-low, which will be more beneficial to growth stocks.</p><p>In a note to clients, Shalet said she expects growth in this business cycle to be broader and more robust than the previous one, with credit growth likely to resume. In this round of growth, fiscal policy-whether by increasing government spending or other stimulus measures-may push up inflation.</p><p>Inflation will cause interest rates to rise, and banks and commodity producers will benefit from it.</p><p>Hence<b>，</b>She advises investors to turn to<b>Cyclical, International, Value and Quality Stocks</b>。</p><p>Investors who choose passive funds do prefer value stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>As of last week, value ETFs had recorded net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, compared with growth ETFs' largest net outflows in six weeks, equity and quantitative strategists said.</p><p>Bank of America strategists therefore believe that value stocks have more room to rise. For example, value stocks previously outperformed growth stocks by only 20%, compared with growth stocks previously outperforming value stocks by 60%. In addition, value outperforming growth stocks only appeared in the seventh month of the value recovery, after growth stocks had outperformed value stocks for 33 months. The profit growth of value stocks has not yet peaked, fund managers still allocate less to value stocks, and active funds allocate less to value stocks by about 30%.</p><p>While the stock market valuations are high right now, Abhay Deshpande, veteran value stock fund manager and chief investment officer at Centerstone Investors, has been investing in the stock market with all his strength.</p><p>Centerstone finds investment opportunities emerging in international small and mid-cap stocks, including small emerging markets, which were once overlooked by investors as investors previously flocked to large-cap technology stocks and large emerging markets such as China. Deshpande believes that with the popularization of COVID-19 vaccine and the recovery of the global economy, tourism and gambling industries in emerging Asian markets will become fields full of development potential and investment prospects.</p><p>GoodHaven fund manager Larry Pitkowsky (Larry Pitkowsky) also believes that the current stock market valuation is high, but he is looking for high-quality value stocks he likes among financial stocks. Pikowski believes that the stock market is not fully reflecting the tailwinds that rising interest rates will bring to financial stocks, and he is adding to his holdings in stocks such as insurer Progressive (PGR). He said that Progressive's return on capital is high, its revenue continues to grow, and the company's management ability is also strong, but its stock price is relatively low, with P/E only between 14 times and 16 times.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"09086":"华夏纳指-U","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BAC":"美国银行","GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164615543","content_text":"价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。苹果和特斯拉等股票近日再次领涨股市，引发了一些人对和经济形势密切相关的价值股的跑赢行情是否已经结束的质疑。不过，从市场最近的动向看，价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。价值股从去年底开始上涨。有关新冠疫苗问世的消息提升了人们对全球经济强劲复苏的信心，并提振了金融、制造、能源和其他大宗商品相关公司的盈利前景。不过，近期利率和通胀预期双双下降又引发了一轮市场逆转。过去一个月iShares标普500价值股ETF（IVE）的涨幅为3.7%，而iShares标普500成长股ETF（IVW）的涨幅却达到了7.7%。DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）在发给客户的报告中称，成长股近期跑赢大盘主要归功于五家公司：苹果（AAPL）、微软（MSFT）、亚马逊（AMZN）、谷歌母公司Alphabet（GOOG）和特斯拉（TSLA）。科拉斯写道，“短期而言，市场突然转向知名成长股通常不是一个好迹象。”他表示，在去年市场低迷之际，投资者纷纷买入大盘科技股。而最近资金回流大牌科技股的现象表明，在增持周期股之前，投资者对押注经济重启主题仍有所犹豫，他们可能在等待更多证据来证明经济复苏将会到来。摩根士丹利财富管理分析师丽莎·沙莱特（Lisa Shalett）也对近期成长股反弹持怀疑态度，她不认为当前周期的经济反弹空间会变窄。如果经济反弹不及预期，美联储将不得不把利率维持在超低水平，这会对成长股更有利。沙莱特在发给客户的报告中表示，她预计本轮商业周期的增长将比上一轮更为广泛和强劲，信贷增长可能会恢复。在这一轮增长中，财政政策——不管是增加政府支出还是其他刺激措施——可能推高通胀。通货膨胀会导致利率上升，银行和大宗商品生产商将从中受益。因此，她建议投资者转向周期股、国际股、价值股和优质股。选择被动型基金的投资者的确更青睐价值股。美国银行的股票及量化策略师们表示，截至上周，价值股ETF已经连续12周录得资金净流入，相比之下，成长股ETF出现6周以来的最大资金净流出。美国银行的策略师们因此认为，价值股上涨的空间更大。举例来说，价值股之前只比成长股高出20%，相比之下，成长股之前跑赢价值股的幅度为60%。此外，价值股跑赢成长股只出现在价值股复苏的第七个月，而此前成长股曾跑赢价值股长达33个月。价值股的利润增长也尚未见顶，基金经理对价值股的配置仍然较少，主动型基金对价值股的配置低大约30%左右。虽然目前股市估值很高，但Centerstone Investors资深价值股基金经理和首席投资官阿布依·德什潘德（Abhay Deshpande）一直在全力投资股市。Centerstone发现国际中小盘股正在浮现投资机会，其中包括小型新兴市场，由于投资者之前纷纷涌向大盘科技股和中国等大型新兴市场，国际中小盘股和小型新兴市场曾被投资者忽视。德什潘德认为，随着新冠疫苗的普及和全球经济的复苏，亚洲新兴市场的旅游业和博彩业将成为充满发展潜力和投资前景的领域。GoodHaven基金经理拉里·皮考斯基（Larry Pitkowsky）同样认为当前股市估值很高，但他正在金融股中寻找自己青睐的优质价值股。皮考斯基认为，股市并没有完全反映利率上升将给金融股带来的利好，他正在增持保险公司Progressive（PGR）等股票。他说，Progressive的资本回报率高，收入持续增长，公司管理能力也很强，然而股价却比较低，市盈率仅在14倍到16倍之间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZFmain":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"09086":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950747929,"gmtCreate":1672845393061,"gmtModify":1676538746819,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok ","listText":"Ok 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","text":"The","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920915436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160576412,"gmtCreate":1623803252936,"gmtModify":1703819781746,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good good ","listText":"Good good ","text":"Good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160576412","repostId":"2143757157","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143757157","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623802364,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143757157?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 08:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Ruixing received approval from China to transfer out funds to meet the financing requirements of the restructuring agreement","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143757157","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"原标题：瑞幸得到中国批准转出资金 达到重组协议的融资要求 来源：腾讯新闻QQ音乐证券6月15日讯，瑞幸咖啡报告称，根据与4.6亿美元0.75%可转换优先票据持有人达成的重组支持协议，该公司已经达到协议规定的融资里程碑。公司完成了中国监管审批程序，通过计划性减资将部分资金转出中国。重组支持协议要求该公司获得合理的境外资金保证，其金额足以支付向票据持有人分配的现金对价。","content":"<p>News on June 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>According to the report, according to the restructuring support agreement with the holders of $460 million of 0.75% convertible senior notes, the company has reached the financing milestones stipulated in the agreement.</p><p>The company completed the regulatory approval process in China and transferred part of its funds out of China through planned capital reduction.</p><p>The restructuring support agreement requires the Company to obtain reasonable guarantees of offshore funds in an amount sufficient to cover the cash consideration distributed to the noteholders.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ruixing received approval from China to transfer out funds to meet the financing requirements of the restructuring agreement</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRuixing received approval from China to transfer out funds to meet the financing requirements of the restructuring agreement\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 08:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on June 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>According to the report, according to the restructuring support agreement with the holders of $460 million of 0.75% convertible senior notes, the company has reached the financing milestones stipulated in the agreement.</p><p>The company completed the regulatory approval process in China and transferred part of its funds out of China through planned capital reduction.</p><p>The restructuring support agreement requires the Company to obtain reasonable guarantees of offshore funds in an amount sufficient to cover the cash consideration distributed to the noteholders.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-06-15/doc-ikqcfnca1220355.shtml\">腾讯新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-06-15/doc-ikqcfnca1220355.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143757157","content_text":"6月15日讯，瑞幸咖啡报告称，根据与4.6亿美元0.75%可转换优先票据持有人达成的重组支持协议，该公司已经达到协议规定的融资里程碑。\n公司完成了中国监管审批程序，通过计划性减资将部分资金转出中国。\n重组支持协议要求该公司获得合理的境外资金保证，其金额足以支付向票据持有人分配的现金对价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LKNCY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107463763,"gmtCreate":1620529961652,"gmtModify":1704344659576,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107463763","repostId":"1175032729","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175032729","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620520193,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175032729?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-09 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, market volatility may intensify in May-June","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175032729","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4","content":"<p>If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. Event: The United States created 266,000 new non-farm jobs in April, the unemployment rate was 6.1%, and the labor force participation rate was 61.7%.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in January and April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</b>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the employment gap exceeded 8.2 million. In April, 266,000 new non-farm jobs were created, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. The commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 people, mainly dragged down by the manufacturing industry; Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain; Professional and business services (\"temporary support services\") dropped sharply by 111,400 people, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to move to \"full-time\" workers. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people.</p><p><b>The initial non-agricultural value in February and April may not be the whole picture of the employment situation in the United States.</b>First, the marginal improvement of labor participation enthusiasm in April is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000. Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. ADP created 742,000 new jobs in the private sector in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000. The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic. Third, the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. The non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis. For April data, disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to use this as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p><b>In March and April, the average hourly wage still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel dropped sharply to 1.15%, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, with the TGA (Treasury General Account) shrinking by about $300 billion in March. Government expenditure may have a \"counter-effect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. Then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in April and April was weak, but the market reacted positively.</b>The market is happy to see the weak employment data, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the S&P 500 index reached a new high; The bond market responded positively, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; The US Dollar Index Diving.</p><p><b>5. Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and related risks. Market volatility may intensify in May-June.</b>Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the continued advancement of vaccination, it is somewhat unexpected that the employment data in April was weaker than that in March, which means that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear.\" There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. The market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. One possible scenario is that the employment data in May may be significantly higher than expected, when the market's nervousness about the shift in monetary policy may reach its highest point, triggering market volatility. Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster. When the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July), employment may \"get together\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the deviation between employment and inflation will make it more difficult for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations. Our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. PCE from April to May this year may reach 3%. However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations.</p><p>The non-agricultural data in April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</p><p>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the current employment gap exceeds 8.2 million. The United States added 266,000 new non-farm employment in April, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. The total number of non-farm employment in April was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous value of 1.44 million. Currently, the total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States is 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. Among the 266,000 new people in April, 234,000 came from the service industry, more than half less than that in March, 48,000 came from the government department, about a quarter less than that in March, and the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000. In March, it increased by 166,000. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by manufacturing (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain. The Federal Reserve has also mentioned the \"bottleneck\" of the supply chain before; And the professional and business services industry dropped by 79,000, of which \"temporary support services\" dropped by 111,400, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to shift to \"full-time\" workers. The U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) reported a 580,000 decrease in \"part-time jobs for economic reasons\" due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2 The preliminary non-farm payrolls value in April may not be the full picture of the U.S. employment situation</p><p>The initial non-agricultural value in April may not be the full picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. job market. There are still a series of signals pointing to the marginal improvement of the U.S. job market.</p><p>First, the margin of labor participation in the United States improved in April, which is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and market expectations of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000, although the current total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the epidemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (considering the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP private sector employment) data released the day before the non-agricultural data showed that 742,000 new jobs were created in the United States in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000 (Chart 6). In the week ending May 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to fall to 498,000, the lowest since the epidemic, although the number was still 2.1 times the pre-epidemic level. In the week ending April 24, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was 3.69 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-epidemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech that the non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis, and it is not recommended to regard the data of a certain month as a potential trend. Combined with the structural characteristics of the initial value of non-agricultural data, we believe that disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in the hotel and tourism industry are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be used as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p>3 The average hourly wage in April still grew rapidly month-on-month, and the \"countereffect\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention</p><p>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage dropped sharply, mainly due to the base number, while the actual wage still increased rapidly month-on-month. After the epidemic, the labor market was in short supply, which made the average hourly wage of non-agricultural employees in the United States increase significantly higher than in previous years. In March, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel increased by 4.55% year-on-year. This growth rate dropped sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but it was largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If we look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Hours per week in April were unchanged from March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, which may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Note that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department has begun to implement the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction plan, spending approximately US $300 billion in March alone (Figure 10). In our previous report \"Slow Employment\" and \"Fast Inflation\" in the United States, we pointed out that the overall recovery of the U.S. job market is slow, which deviates from the \"fast recovery\" shown by other economic indicators. This is partly related to the vigorous fiscal stimulus in the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4 Non-agricultural data in April was weak, but the market reacted positively</p><p>The market is obviously happy to see the weak employment data in the United States, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the three major stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closing up 0.88%, 0.74% and 0.66% respectively (Chart 12); The bond market reacted positively. The 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday, then rebounded, and finally closed up 2bp, of which the 10-year TIPS interest rate fell by 2bp (Chart 13); Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); The US Dollar Index dived and closed at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5 Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of American employment</p><p>We believe that in the next 1-2 months (May-June), we should be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and the risks it may bring.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April was significantly weaker than that in March. Considering the improvement of the U.S. epidemic and the continued advancement of vaccination, this phenomenon seems somewhat unexpected. We have observed foreign media reports that U.S. residents' concerns about COVID-19 pandemic are still an important reason hindering employment recovery. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disturbed by unexpected events (affected by severe weather in February this year, affected by supply chain disruptions in April, etc.). All these mean that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"non-linear\".</p><p>There are three main risks of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of the U.S. economy: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. For example, the market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. Based on the non-farm payrolls data of 916,000 in March, the market predicts that non-farm payrolls will increase by 1 million in April, which is an example.<b>One possible scenario is that the market's expectations for the employment data in May are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>By then, the market's nervousness about the Fed's monetary policy shift may reach its highest point, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster.</b>If COVID-19 pandemic is the main factor hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, then it can be expected that when the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July, refer to the report \"How far is the United States from\" herd immunity \"?\"), employment may \"get together\" Recovery, then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly.</p><p><b>Third, the deviation between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations.</b>Based on the latest PCE data released in March and the Federal Reserve's forecast of the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in 2021 (the median forecast is 2.4%), our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE from April to May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market. U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations, which deserves vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, market volatility may intensify in May-June</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, market volatility may intensify in May-June\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-09 08:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. Event: The United States created 266,000 new non-farm jobs in April, the unemployment rate was 6.1%, and the labor force participation rate was 61.7%.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in January and April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</b>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the employment gap exceeded 8.2 million. In April, 266,000 new non-farm jobs were created, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. The commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 people, mainly dragged down by the manufacturing industry; Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain; Professional and business services (\"temporary support services\") dropped sharply by 111,400 people, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to move to \"full-time\" workers. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people.</p><p><b>The initial non-agricultural value in February and April may not be the whole picture of the employment situation in the United States.</b>First, the marginal improvement of labor participation enthusiasm in April is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000. Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. ADP created 742,000 new jobs in the private sector in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000. The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic. Third, the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. The non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis. For April data, disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to use this as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p><b>In March and April, the average hourly wage still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel dropped sharply to 1.15%, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, with the TGA (Treasury General Account) shrinking by about $300 billion in March. Government expenditure may have a \"counter-effect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. Then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in April and April was weak, but the market reacted positively.</b>The market is happy to see the weak employment data, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the S&P 500 index reached a new high; The bond market responded positively, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; The US Dollar Index Diving.</p><p><b>5. Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and related risks. Market volatility may intensify in May-June.</b>Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the continued advancement of vaccination, it is somewhat unexpected that the employment data in April was weaker than that in March, which means that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear.\" There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. The market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. One possible scenario is that the employment data in May may be significantly higher than expected, when the market's nervousness about the shift in monetary policy may reach its highest point, triggering market volatility. Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster. When the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July), employment may \"get together\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the deviation between employment and inflation will make it more difficult for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations. Our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. PCE from April to May this year may reach 3%. However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations.</p><p>The non-agricultural data in April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</p><p>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the current employment gap exceeds 8.2 million. The United States added 266,000 new non-farm employment in April, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. The total number of non-farm employment in April was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous value of 1.44 million. Currently, the total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States is 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. Among the 266,000 new people in April, 234,000 came from the service industry, more than half less than that in March, 48,000 came from the government department, about a quarter less than that in March, and the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000. In March, it increased by 166,000. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by manufacturing (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain. The Federal Reserve has also mentioned the \"bottleneck\" of the supply chain before; And the professional and business services industry dropped by 79,000, of which \"temporary support services\" dropped by 111,400, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to shift to \"full-time\" workers. The U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) reported a 580,000 decrease in \"part-time jobs for economic reasons\" due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2 The preliminary non-farm payrolls value in April may not be the full picture of the U.S. employment situation</p><p>The initial non-agricultural value in April may not be the full picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. job market. There are still a series of signals pointing to the marginal improvement of the U.S. job market.</p><p>First, the margin of labor participation in the United States improved in April, which is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and market expectations of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000, although the current total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the epidemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (considering the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP private sector employment) data released the day before the non-agricultural data showed that 742,000 new jobs were created in the United States in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000 (Chart 6). In the week ending May 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to fall to 498,000, the lowest since the epidemic, although the number was still 2.1 times the pre-epidemic level. In the week ending April 24, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was 3.69 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-epidemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech that the non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis, and it is not recommended to regard the data of a certain month as a potential trend. Combined with the structural characteristics of the initial value of non-agricultural data, we believe that disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in the hotel and tourism industry are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be used as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p>3 The average hourly wage in April still grew rapidly month-on-month, and the \"countereffect\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention</p><p>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage dropped sharply, mainly due to the base number, while the actual wage still increased rapidly month-on-month. After the epidemic, the labor market was in short supply, which made the average hourly wage of non-agricultural employees in the United States increase significantly higher than in previous years. In March, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel increased by 4.55% year-on-year. This growth rate dropped sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but it was largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If we look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Hours per week in April were unchanged from March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, which may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Note that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department has begun to implement the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction plan, spending approximately US $300 billion in March alone (Figure 10). In our previous report \"Slow Employment\" and \"Fast Inflation\" in the United States, we pointed out that the overall recovery of the U.S. job market is slow, which deviates from the \"fast recovery\" shown by other economic indicators. This is partly related to the vigorous fiscal stimulus in the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4 Non-agricultural data in April was weak, but the market reacted positively</p><p>The market is obviously happy to see the weak employment data in the United States, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the three major stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closing up 0.88%, 0.74% and 0.66% respectively (Chart 12); The bond market reacted positively. The 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday, then rebounded, and finally closed up 2bp, of which the 10-year TIPS interest rate fell by 2bp (Chart 13); Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); The US Dollar Index dived and closed at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5 Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of American employment</p><p>We believe that in the next 1-2 months (May-June), we should be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and the risks it may bring.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April was significantly weaker than that in March. Considering the improvement of the U.S. epidemic and the continued advancement of vaccination, this phenomenon seems somewhat unexpected. We have observed foreign media reports that U.S. residents' concerns about COVID-19 pandemic are still an important reason hindering employment recovery. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disturbed by unexpected events (affected by severe weather in February this year, affected by supply chain disruptions in April, etc.). All these mean that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"non-linear\".</p><p>There are three main risks of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of the U.S. economy: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. For example, the market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. Based on the non-farm payrolls data of 916,000 in March, the market predicts that non-farm payrolls will increase by 1 million in April, which is an example.<b>One possible scenario is that the market's expectations for the employment data in May are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>By then, the market's nervousness about the Fed's monetary policy shift may reach its highest point, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster.</b>If COVID-19 pandemic is the main factor hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, then it can be expected that when the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July, refer to the report \"How far is the United States from\" herd immunity \"?\"), employment may \"get together\" Recovery, then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly.</p><p><b>Third, the deviation between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations.</b>Based on the latest PCE data released in March and the Federal Reserve's forecast of the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in 2021 (the median forecast is 2.4%), our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE from April to May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market. U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations, which deserves vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175032729","content_text":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，就业缺口超820万人。4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。商品生产部门减少1.6万人，主要受制造业拖累;运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关;专业和商业服务业(“临时支持服务”)锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制。\n2、 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌。第一，4月劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%。不过，4月劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。4月ADP私人部门新增就业74.2万人，高于前值56.5万人。最新初请失业金人数降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低。第三，非农数据初值的准确性有限。非农就业报告会按月被修正。对于4月数据，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时性，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不宜将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3、 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注。4月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增速大幅降落至1.15%，很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。美国财政部3月以来支出加速，3月TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减约3000亿美元。而政府支出可能对就业市场产生“反作用”，2020年4月以来政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢，劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口。\n4、 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极。市场乐见就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，标普500指数再创新高;债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水;黄金期货价格明显受到提振;美元指数跳水。\n5、 警惕美国就业“非线性”复苏及相关风险，5-6月市场波动可能加剧。考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，4月就业数据弱于3月有些出乎意料，意味着美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于线性外推思维，容易造成误判。市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。一个可能的情形是，5月就业数据可能大幅高于预期，届时市场对于货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点、引发市场波动。二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月美国PCE同比增速或达到3%。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动。\n1 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业在拖后腿?\n美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，目前就业缺口超820万人。美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。4月非农就业总人数为144.31万人，较前值144万人仅增加约3千人。目前，美国非农就业总人数比新冠疫情前(2020年2月)低821.5万人(图表1)。\n\n制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。4月新增的26.6万人中，有23.4万人来自服务业、比3月减少一半以上，4.8万人来自政府部门、比3月减少约1/4，而商品生产部门减少1.6万人、3月为增加16.6万人。4月商品生产部门就业主要受制造业(尤其耐用品制造)拖累(图表2);运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关，此前美联储亦曾提及供应链“瓶颈”;专业和商业服务业锐减7.9万人，其中“临时支持服务”锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。据美国劳工部(BLS)报告，“因经济原因从事非全日制工作”人数减少58万，原因是全职职位增加。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制(图表3)。\n\n2 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌\n4月非农初值可能并非美国就业市场恢复节奏的全貌，仍有一系列信号指向美国就业市场正在边际改善。\n第一，4月美国劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月美国失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%和市场预期的5.8%(图表4)。不过，4月美国劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人，虽然目前劳动力总人口仍比疫情前(2020年2月)低346万人(图表5)。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。此外，4月U6失业率(考虑更广义的失业人群)下降了0.3个百分点至10.4%。\n\n第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。在非农数据前一天公布的“小非农”(ADP私人部门就业)数据显示，4月美国新增就业74.2万人，高于前值的56.5万人(图表6)。截至5月1日的一周，美国初请失业金人数继续下降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低，虽然该数字仍为疫情前水平的2.1倍。截至4月24日的一周，美国续请失业金人数为369万人，略高于前值的365万人，为疫情前水平的2.4倍(图表7)。\n\n第三，需注意非农数据初值的准确性有限。5月7日美国财长耶伦讲话称，非农就业报告会按月被修正，不建议将某个月的数据视作潜在趋势。结合非农数据初值的结构性特点，我们认为，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不应将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注\n4月平均时薪同比增速大幅回落，主要是基数原因，实际薪资环比仍较快增长。疫情后劳动力市场供不应求，使美国非农员工平均时薪同比增速显著高于往年，3月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增长4.55%。4月这一增速大幅降落至1.15%(图表8)，但很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅(图表9)。4月每周工时与3月持平，但仍低于疫情前水平。\n\n美国财政部3月以来支出加速，可能对就业市场产生“反作用”。注意到，2021年3月以来美国财政部开始执行TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减计划，仅3月就支出了约3000亿美元(图表10)。我们在之前报告《美国的“慢就业”与“快通胀”》中指出，美国就业市场恢复整体偏慢，与其他经济指标所显示的“快复苏”背离，这一定程度上与美国大力度的财政刺激有关。2020年4月以来，政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢、劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口(图表11)。\n\n4 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极\n市场显然乐见美国就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，三大股指齐涨，纳指、标普500和道指分别收涨0.88%、0.74%和0.66%(图表12);债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水、之后回升，最终收涨2bp，其中10年TIPS利率降2bp(图表13);黄金期货价格明显受到提振(图表14);美元指数跳水、收于90.24，为2月25日以来新低(图表15)。\n\n5 警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏\n我们认为，未来1-2个月(5-6月)应警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，及其可能带来的风险。\n4月美国非农就业数据明显弱于3月，考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，这一现象似乎有些始料未及。我们观察外媒报道，美国居民对新冠疫情的担忧依然是阻碍就业恢复的重要原因。此外，美国就业市场可能受到突发事件扰动(今年2月受恶劣天气影响、4月受供应链受阻影响等)。这些均意味着，美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。\n美国经济“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于“线性外推”思维，容易造成误判。例如，市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。市场基于3月91.6万的非农就业数据，预测4月非农新增100万，就是一个例子。一个可能的情形是，市场对5月就业数据的预期降低，但实际数据可能大幅高于预期。届时，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点，导致资产抛售与市场震荡。\n二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。如果新冠疫情是阻碍美国就业恢复的主因，那么可以预计等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右，参考报告《美国离“群体免疫”还有多远?》)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。\n三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。基于最新公布的3月PCE数据，以及美联储对于2021年PCE同比增速的预判(预测中值为2.4%)，我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月PCE同比增速或达到3%(图表16)。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动，值得警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376839677,"gmtCreate":1619101734399,"gmtModify":1704719698049,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tw","listText":"Tw","text":"Tw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376839677","repostId":"1194478269","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194478269","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619101374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194478269?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] Some chip stocks fell, Micron Technology fell more than 4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194478269","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月22日，部分芯片股盘中走低，美光科技、西部数据跌超4%，AMD、英特尔跌超1%。","content":"<p>On April 22, some chip stocks fell intraday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">Western Digital</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1241a8d113977ddbf3ab43a3e3c30e06\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] Some chip stocks fell, Micron Technology fell more than 4%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-22 22:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 22, some chip stocks fell intraday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">Western Digital</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1241a8d113977ddbf3ab43a3e3c30e06\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MU":"美光科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194478269","content_text":"4月22日，部分芯片股盘中走低，美光科技、西部数据跌超4%，AMD、英特尔跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":486105934852680,"gmtCreate":1759646506768,"gmtModify":1759646510476,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ni za","listText":"ni za","text":"ni za","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/486105934852680","repostId":"1119616083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119616083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1759640075,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119616083?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-10-05 12:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bitcoin Hits Record High, U.S. Government Shutdown Prompts Flood into Risky Assets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119616083","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"投资者正在寻求避险资产。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 5, Bitcoin exceeded $125,000 per coin in intraday trading, setting a new high, rising 2.5% within the day. This reflects that investor sentiment may be shifting, viewing cryptocurrencies as safe-haven assets similar to gold in response to ongoing economic uncertainty.</p><p>Investors speculated that the government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, would prompt investors to turn to safe-haven assets, with market participants beginning to call it \"devaluation trading\". Joshua Lim, co-head of markets at cryptocurrency prime broker FalconX, said: \"At a time when a wide range of assets, including equities, gold and even collectibles such as Pokémon cards, are at record highs, it is not surprising that Bitcoin is benefiting from the dollar depreciation narrative.\" Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said: \"The impact of this government shutdown is not trivial, and Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise during this period. While Bitcoin was in a different position during the last government shutdown, the linkage between the asset and traditional risk assets was low.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Hits Record High, U.S. Government Shutdown Prompts Flood into Risky Assets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Hits Record High, U.S. Government Shutdown Prompts Flood into Risky Assets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-10-05 12:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 5, Bitcoin exceeded $125,000 per coin in intraday trading, setting a new high, rising 2.5% within the day. This reflects that investor sentiment may be shifting, viewing cryptocurrencies as safe-haven assets similar to gold in response to ongoing economic uncertainty.</p><p>Investors speculated that the government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, would prompt investors to turn to safe-haven assets, with market participants beginning to call it \"devaluation trading\". Joshua Lim, co-head of markets at cryptocurrency prime broker FalconX, said: \"At a time when a wide range of assets, including equities, gold and even collectibles such as Pokémon cards, are at record highs, it is not surprising that Bitcoin is benefiting from the dollar depreciation narrative.\" Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said: \"The impact of this government shutdown is not trivial, and Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise during this period. While Bitcoin was in a different position during the last government shutdown, the linkage between the asset and traditional risk assets was low.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9712b6f035d7a01dae3855140d621802","relate_stocks":{"CAN":"嘉楠科技","BMNR":"BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","SBET":"SharpLink Gaming","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","MARA":"MARA Holdings","MSTR":"Strategy"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119616083","content_text":"10月5日，比特币盘中突破125000美元/枚，创下新高，日内涨2.5%。这反映出投资者情绪可能正在转变，将加密货币视为类似于黄金的避险资产，以应对持续的经济不确定性。投资者猜测，周三开始的政府停摆将促使投资者转向避险资产，市场参与者开始称之为“贬值交易”。加密货币主经纪商FalconX的市场联席主管Joshua Lim表示：“在包括股票、黄金乃至宝可梦卡片等收藏品在内的众多资产均创历史新高之际，比特币从美元贬值叙事中受益并不令人意外。”渣打银行数字资产研究全球主管Geoff Kendrick表示：“此次政府停摆的影响非同小可，预计比特币在此期间将继续上涨。虽然在上一次政府停摆期间，比特币处于不同境地，但当时该资产与传统风险资产的联动性较低。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BMNR":1.1,"BTBT":1.1,"MSTR":1.1,"COIN":1.1,"CAN":1.1,"SBET":1.1,"MARA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":476420621767472,"gmtCreate":1757341111219,"gmtModify":1757341114259,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CIHKY\">$招商银行ADR(CIHKY)$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CIHKY\">$招商银行ADR(CIHKY)$</a> 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