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2025-12-03

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2025-11-22

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Amazing big reversal! The Fed's No. 3 man ignites the probability of interest rate cuts in a sentence, U.S. stocks surge, and the Dow surges more than 700 points

2024-08-05

Holy sh....

2024-03-12

Rate hike again this year? 🥲

US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected

2023-05-04

No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool

Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502754222674016","repostId":"2585404721","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585404721","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"FX168","home_visible":1,"media_name":"FX168","id":"1059947868","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a80f9d4086d7680bdea6ba04addf782"},"pubTimestamp":1763748327,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2585404721?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-11-22 02:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Amazing big reversal! The Fed's No. 3 man ignites the probability of interest rate cuts in a sentence, U.S. stocks surge, and the Dow surges more than 700 points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585404721","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社 讯 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周五释放新的政策信号，称在12月的政策会议上，他可能支持进一步降息。这一表态迅速推动市场对再次降息的押注大幅升温，美股趁势强势反弹。尽管他对未来政策持开放态度，但威廉姆斯警告称，近期关税上调正暂时阻碍通胀回落至美联储2%的目标。他估算关税对通胀的贡献在 0.5 至 0.75 个百分点之间。美联储将在 12月9日至10日召开今年最后一次政策会议。","content":"<p><html><body><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News New York Fed President John<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>(John Williams) released new policy signals on Friday (Nov. 21), saying that at the December policy meeting, he may support further rate cuts. This statement quickly pushed the market's bet on another interest rate cut to heat up sharply, and U.S. stocks took advantage of the trend to rebound strongly.</p><p>Speaking in Santiago, Chile, Mr Williams said he believed the current monetary policy was still in a state of \"moderate tightening\"\"but moderated from before\". He added: \"So,<strong>I think there is still room in the near future to further adjust the Federal Funds rate target range to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, thus maintaining the balance between achieving the dual objectives.</strong>”</p><p><span><span><span><strong>Investors quickly interpreted this as a clear signal from the top of the Federal Reserve: the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is rising.</strong></span></span></span></p><p>While he is open to future policy, Williams warned that recent tariff hikes are temporarily preventing inflation from falling back to the Fed's 2% target. He estimated the contribution of tariffs to inflation at between 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points. However, he still expects inflation to fall back next year.</p><p><strong>Since Williams is vice chairman of the FOMC and part of an informal \"leadership troika\" with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, his comments are seen by the market as an important hint of the direction of policy winds.</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>Krishna Guha, head of global policy at ISI, pointed out in a report to clients that although there is some room for ambiguity in the expression \"recent\", \"the most direct interpretation is to point to the next meeting\". He added that although this may be Williams' personal opinion, on core policy issues such as interest rates, the public statements of the president and vice president of the New York Fed are \"almost always approved by the chairman\", and \"it would be serious professional misconduct to release such a signal without Powell's nod\".</p><p>Williams was particularly sensitive to speaking out about interest rates at this time. The FOMC, which has always been known as \"consensus-driven\" but is often criticized for lacking diversity in thinking, is now clearly divided internally.</p><p>One group of officials believes that the current policy still inhibits economic growth and still needs to be adjusted; The other faction is worried about inflation, insisting that there is no need for further easing under the background of steady economic growth and continuous interest rate cuts in September and October.</p><p>While Williams has not gone deep into the long-term interest rate path, at least in the short term,<strong>Fed brass seem inclined to support another rate cut</strong>。</p><p>In this context, Williams'dovish stance is of particular concern. In the past few weeks, the market has been significantly volatile due to the debate over whether the AI sector is bubbling, rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the Fed's policy.</p><p><h3><strong>Markets react quickly: probability of rate cuts soars to more than 70%</strong></h3>On the same day,<strong>Fed Governor Stephen Miran also spoke, saying that if he is the decisive key vote, he would prefer to support a 25 basis point rate cut instead of the 50 basis points that have been called for many times before.</strong>During his short tenure on the board, Milan has been more aggressive, insisting on \"super-sharp interest rate cuts\", which is clearly at odds with some of his peers who want to keep interest rates unchanged.</p><p><strong>Affected by the speeches of Williams and Milan, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December to soar from 30%-40% on Thursday to more than 70%.<span><span><span>According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently see a 73% probability of a rate cut in December.</span></span></span></strong></p><p><strong>U.S. stocks rallied strongly on Friday after Williams hinted that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 709 points, or 1.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>Index up 1.3%; The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.</strong></p><p><div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747862214\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)</p><p>\"We think interest rates should really be cut,\" Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said in an interview with CNBC. \"The key depends on the next jobs report. If the data is significantly weak, it will really convince the market to support interest rate cuts.\"</p><p>The previous trading day saw a sharp reversal on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The strong third-quarter financial report rose by more than 700 points, but then the rally quickly retreated, and all three major indexes closed sharply lower. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve may stand still in December.</p><p>Even with a rebound on Friday, the three major indexes will still record significant losses this week. The S&P 500 and the Dow are both down about 2% this week, while the Nasdaq is down about 3% cumulatively.</p><p>Speaking of recent market pressures, Hatfield said it was more like a \"common post-earnings season valuation correction\", noting that \"the bubble part of the market is suffering a brutal decline\".</p><p><strong>Cryptocurrencies also took a significant hit, with Bitcoin falling about 2% on Friday and widening its losses to more than 10% during the week, falling to its lowest level since April, reflecting a marked cooling of market risk appetite.</strong></p><p><div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747902621\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)</p><p>\"The only question is, where will the market bottom out?\" Hatfield said.</p><p>The industry generally believes that Williams' voice \"prevented another possible round of selling in time\". Market risk sentiment improved significantly, driven by the strength of most sectors outside technology stocks.</p><p>Guha of Evercore ISI pointed out: \"Before Williams' speech, several Fed officials had expressed reservations about the interest rate cut in December, but they all deliberately avoided making a clear denial. Perhaps they realized that this tug-of-war about the interest rate cut in December was evolving into a test of the Fed's governance ability, so it was necessary to leave room for Powell to make decisions.\"</p><p><h3><strong>Strong employment data confuses policy path</strong></h3>The comments come as markets are still digesting the September jobs report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. New jobs were added in September, data shows<strong>119,000 people</strong>Far higher than economists expected<strong>51,000 people</strong>, reversing a weak performance after a downward revision in August.</p><p>Recently, the fluctuation of employment data has intensified: employment was negative in June, rebounded in July, fell again in August, and rebounded significantly in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to<strong>4.4%</strong>。 Some analysts believe that this is caused by more workers returning to the job market.</p><p>Milan believes the jobs report should push the inclination of hesitant officials to support rate cuts. He pointed out that a slight rise in unemployment and an increase in permanent layoffs both show that tightening has put pressure on the labour market and that \"there is no need to continue to maintain such a tight policy stance\" at a time when the inflation outlook improves.</p><p><h3><strong>Opinion differentiation: Fed chairmen in some regions prefer to stand still</strong></h3>Despite Williams's dovish signals, not all officials agreed to cut rates again.</p><p><strong>Boston Fed President Susan Collins</strong>— — December voting rights — — represented<strong>She is' more inclined to leave policy unchanged'</strong>。 She pointed out: Economic demand remains resilient, which may push companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers; She hears more and more concerns about inflation from survey respondents; The Fed currently needs to maintain \"<strong>slightly tightened</strong>\"Policy positions.</p><p>\"Keeping a slightly tighter policy helps ensure that inflation continues to fall. There will certainly be further normalization going forward, but it has to be careful and gradual,\" she told CNBC.</p><p><strong>Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that against the backdrop of two rate cuts already implemented, she would struggle to support another rate cut in December unless there is a significant decline in inflation or a worsening job market.</strong></p><p><strong>Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also made a public statement for the first time, saying she is looking at the December meeting in a \"cautious\" way.</strong>She thinks the two rate cuts in the autumn are \"appropriate\" but \"each one raises the bar for the next one\".</p><p>In the meantime,<strong>Vice Chairman Jefferson, one of the \"trio\" members, said recently that downside risks to employment are increasing compared with upward inflation, and he was open to interest rate cuts, but stressed that policy should be \"moved slowly\".</strong></p><p><strong>The Federal Reserve will hold its last policy meeting of the year on Dec. 9-10.</strong>The Fed's balance between inflation and growth will become more delicate as internal differences of opinion intensify, employment data repeats, inflation is disturbed by tariffs, and market volatility heats up. Whether December will usher in the third interest rate cut this year will become the focus of global market attention.</p><p></div></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazing big reversal! 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The Fed's No. 3 man ignites the probability of interest rate cuts in a sentence, U.S. stocks surge, and the Dow surges more than 700 points\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059947868\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a80f9d4086d7680bdea6ba04addf782);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">FX168 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-11-22 02:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News New York Fed President John<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>(John Williams) released new policy signals on Friday (Nov. 21), saying that at the December policy meeting, he may support further rate cuts. This statement quickly pushed the market's bet on another interest rate cut to heat up sharply, and U.S. stocks took advantage of the trend to rebound strongly.</p><p>Speaking in Santiago, Chile, Mr Williams said he believed the current monetary policy was still in a state of \"moderate tightening\"\"but moderated from before\". He added: \"So,<strong>I think there is still room in the near future to further adjust the Federal Funds rate target range to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, thus maintaining the balance between achieving the dual objectives.</strong>”</p><p><span><span><span><strong>Investors quickly interpreted this as a clear signal from the top of the Federal Reserve: the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is rising.</strong></span></span></span></p><p>While he is open to future policy, Williams warned that recent tariff hikes are temporarily preventing inflation from falling back to the Fed's 2% target. He estimated the contribution of tariffs to inflation at between 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points. However, he still expects inflation to fall back next year.</p><p><strong>Since Williams is vice chairman of the FOMC and part of an informal \"leadership troika\" with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, his comments are seen by the market as an important hint of the direction of policy winds.</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>Krishna Guha, head of global policy at ISI, pointed out in a report to clients that although there is some room for ambiguity in the expression \"recent\", \"the most direct interpretation is to point to the next meeting\". He added that although this may be Williams' personal opinion, on core policy issues such as interest rates, the public statements of the president and vice president of the New York Fed are \"almost always approved by the chairman\", and \"it would be serious professional misconduct to release such a signal without Powell's nod\".</p><p>Williams was particularly sensitive to speaking out about interest rates at this time. The FOMC, which has always been known as \"consensus-driven\" but is often criticized for lacking diversity in thinking, is now clearly divided internally.</p><p>One group of officials believes that the current policy still inhibits economic growth and still needs to be adjusted; The other faction is worried about inflation, insisting that there is no need for further easing under the background of steady economic growth and continuous interest rate cuts in September and October.</p><p>While Williams has not gone deep into the long-term interest rate path, at least in the short term,<strong>Fed brass seem inclined to support another rate cut</strong>。</p><p>In this context, Williams'dovish stance is of particular concern. In the past few weeks, the market has been significantly volatile due to the debate over whether the AI sector is bubbling, rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the Fed's policy.</p><p><h3><strong>Markets react quickly: probability of rate cuts soars to more than 70%</strong></h3>On the same day,<strong>Fed Governor Stephen Miran also spoke, saying that if he is the decisive key vote, he would prefer to support a 25 basis point rate cut instead of the 50 basis points that have been called for many times before.</strong>During his short tenure on the board, Milan has been more aggressive, insisting on \"super-sharp interest rate cuts\", which is clearly at odds with some of his peers who want to keep interest rates unchanged.</p><p><strong>Affected by the speeches of Williams and Milan, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December to soar from 30%-40% on Thursday to more than 70%.<span><span><span>According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently see a 73% probability of a rate cut in December.</span></span></span></strong></p><p><strong>U.S. stocks rallied strongly on Friday after Williams hinted that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 709 points, or 1.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>Index up 1.3%; The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.</strong></p><p><div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747862214\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)</p><p>\"We think interest rates should really be cut,\" Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said in an interview with CNBC. \"The key depends on the next jobs report. If the data is significantly weak, it will really convince the market to support interest rate cuts.\"</p><p>The previous trading day saw a sharp reversal on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The strong third-quarter financial report rose by more than 700 points, but then the rally quickly retreated, and all three major indexes closed sharply lower. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve may stand still in December.</p><p>Even with a rebound on Friday, the three major indexes will still record significant losses this week. The S&P 500 and the Dow are both down about 2% this week, while the Nasdaq is down about 3% cumulatively.</p><p>Speaking of recent market pressures, Hatfield said it was more like a \"common post-earnings season valuation correction\", noting that \"the bubble part of the market is suffering a brutal decline\".</p><p><strong>Cryptocurrencies also took a significant hit, with Bitcoin falling about 2% on Friday and widening its losses to more than 10% during the week, falling to its lowest level since April, reflecting a marked cooling of market risk appetite.</strong></p><p><div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747902621\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)</p><p>\"The only question is, where will the market bottom out?\" Hatfield said.</p><p>The industry generally believes that Williams' voice \"prevented another possible round of selling in time\". Market risk sentiment improved significantly, driven by the strength of most sectors outside technology stocks.</p><p>Guha of Evercore ISI pointed out: \"Before Williams' speech, several Fed officials had expressed reservations about the interest rate cut in December, but they all deliberately avoided making a clear denial. Perhaps they realized that this tug-of-war about the interest rate cut in December was evolving into a test of the Fed's governance ability, so it was necessary to leave room for Powell to make decisions.\"</p><p><h3><strong>Strong employment data confuses policy path</strong></h3>The comments come as markets are still digesting the September jobs report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. New jobs were added in September, data shows<strong>119,000 people</strong>Far higher than economists expected<strong>51,000 people</strong>, reversing a weak performance after a downward revision in August.</p><p>Recently, the fluctuation of employment data has intensified: employment was negative in June, rebounded in July, fell again in August, and rebounded significantly in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to<strong>4.4%</strong>。 Some analysts believe that this is caused by more workers returning to the job market.</p><p>Milan believes the jobs report should push the inclination of hesitant officials to support rate cuts. He pointed out that a slight rise in unemployment and an increase in permanent layoffs both show that tightening has put pressure on the labour market and that \"there is no need to continue to maintain such a tight policy stance\" at a time when the inflation outlook improves.</p><p><h3><strong>Opinion differentiation: Fed chairmen in some regions prefer to stand still</strong></h3>Despite Williams's dovish signals, not all officials agreed to cut rates again.</p><p><strong>Boston Fed President Susan Collins</strong>— — December voting rights — — represented<strong>She is' more inclined to leave policy unchanged'</strong>。 She pointed out: Economic demand remains resilient, which may push companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers; She hears more and more concerns about inflation from survey respondents; The Fed currently needs to maintain \"<strong>slightly tightened</strong>\"Policy positions.</p><p>\"Keeping a slightly tighter policy helps ensure that inflation continues to fall. There will certainly be further normalization going forward, but it has to be careful and gradual,\" she told CNBC.</p><p><strong>Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that against the backdrop of two rate cuts already implemented, she would struggle to support another rate cut in December unless there is a significant decline in inflation or a worsening job market.</strong></p><p><strong>Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also made a public statement for the first time, saying she is looking at the December meeting in a \"cautious\" way.</strong>She thinks the two rate cuts in the autumn are \"appropriate\" but \"each one raises the bar for the next one\".</p><p>In the meantime,<strong>Vice Chairman Jefferson, one of the \"trio\" members, said recently that downside risks to employment are increasing compared with upward inflation, and he was open to interest rate cuts, but stressed that policy should be \"moved slowly\".</strong></p><p><strong>The Federal Reserve will hold its last policy meeting of the year on Dec. 9-10.</strong>The Fed's balance between inflation and growth will become more delicate as internal differences of opinion intensify, employment data repeats, inflation is disturbed by tariffs, and market volatility heats up. Whether December will usher in the third interest rate cut this year will become the focus of global market attention.</p><p></div></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168news.com/article/美联储降息-968388","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585404721","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）周五（11月21日）释放新的政策信号，称在12月的政策会议上，他可能支持进一步降息。这一表态迅速推动市场对再次降息的押注大幅升温，美股趁势强势反弹。\n威廉姆斯在智利圣地亚哥发表讲话时表示，他认为当前货币政策仍处于“温和紧缩”状态，“但较此前有所缓和”。他补充称：“因此，我认为近期仍有空间进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间，使政策立场更接近中性，从而维持实现双重目标之间的平衡。”\n投资者迅速将此解读为美联储最高层传递出的明确信号：12月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，再度降息的可能性正在上升。\n尽管他对未来政策持开放态度，但威廉姆斯警告称，近期关税上调正暂时阻碍通胀回落至美联储2%的目标。他估算关税对通胀的贡献在 0.5 至 0.75 个百分点之间。不过，他仍预计明年通胀将重新回落。\n由于威廉姆斯是FOMC副主席，同时也是与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）组成的非正式“领导三人组（troika）”之一，他的言论被市场视为政策风向的重要提示。\nEvercore ISI全球政策主管Krishna Guha在给客户的报告中指出，虽然“近期”这一表述存在一定模糊空间，但“最直接的解读，就是指向下一次会议”。他补充称，尽管这可能是威廉姆斯的个人观点，但在利率等核心政策问题上，纽约联储主席与副主席的公开表态“几乎总是经过主席批准”，“如果未经鲍威尔点头就释放这样的信号，将属于严重的职业失当”。\n威廉姆斯此时关于利率的发声尤其敏感。一直以“共识驱动”著称、却常被批评缺乏思维多样性的FOMC，如今内部出现了明显分歧。\n一派官员认为当前政策仍对经济增长形成抑制，仍需调整；另一派则担忧通胀，坚持在经济增速稳健、且9月与10月已连续降息的背景下，没有必要进一步宽松。\n虽然威廉姆斯没有深入展开长期利率路径，但至少在短期内，美联储高层似乎倾向于支持再次降息。\n在这种背景下，威廉姆斯的鸽派立场格外引人关注。过去几周，市场已因人工智能板块是否泡沫化的争论、地缘政治风险上升及美联储政策不确定性而出现明显震荡。\n市场迅速反应：降息概率飙升至 70% 以上\n同日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）也发表讲话表示，如果他是决定性的关键一票，他倾向于支持 25 个基点 的降息，而非此前多次呼吁的 50 个基点。米兰在加入董事会的短暂任期内一直态度更为激进，坚持“超大幅降息”，与部分希望维持利率不变的同僚观点产生明显分歧。\n受威廉姆斯和米兰讲话影响，市场预计美联储12月再度降息的概率从周四的 30%-40% 暴涨至 70% 以上。根据CME FedWatch工具，交易员目前认为12月降息的概率达 73%。\n在威廉姆斯暗示美联储今年可能再次降息后，美国股市周五强劲反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨709点，涨幅1.6%；标普500指数上涨1.3%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.1%。\n\n\n\n(道指1小时走势图，来源：FX168)\n“我们认为确实应该降息，”Infrastructure Capital Advisors创始人兼CEO Jay Hatfield在接受CNBC采访时表示，“关键取决于下一份就业报告。如果数据明显疲弱，才会真正说服市场支持降息。”\n此前一个交易日，华尔街经历剧烈反转。道指在周四一度因英伟达强劲的三季度财报大涨700点以上，但随后涨势快速回吐，三大指数收盘均大幅下挫，市场担忧美联储可能在12月按兵不动。\n即便周五反弹，三大股指本周仍将录得显著跌幅。标普500指数、道指本周均下跌约2%，纳斯达克则累计下跌约3%。\n谈及近期市场压力，Hatfield表示，这更像是“常见的财报季后估值回调”，并指出市场中“泡沫部分正遭遇惨烈杀跌”。\n加密货币也受到显著冲击，比特币周五下跌约2%，周内跌幅扩大至逾10%，跌至自4月以来最低水平，反映市场风险偏好明显降温。\n\n\n\n(道指1小时走势图，来源：FX168)\n“唯一的问题是，市场会在什么位置触底？”Hatfield表示。\n业内人士普遍认为，威廉姆斯的发声“及时阻止了可能出现的又一轮抛售”。在科技股外大部分板块走强的带动下，市场风险情绪明显改善。\nEvercore ISI的Guha指出：“在威廉姆斯讲话前，已有数位联储官员对12月降息表达保留意见，但他们都刻意避免做出明确否定。或许他们意识到，这场关于12月降息的拉锯，正演变为对美联储治理能力的考验，因此需要为鲍威尔留出决策空间。”\n强劲就业数据令政策路径更扑朔迷离\n这些评论发布之际，市场仍在消化因政府停摆导致推迟发布的9月就业报告。数据显示，9月新增就业 11.9 万人，远高于经济学家预期的 5.1 万人，扭转了8月向下修正后的疲弱表现。\n近期就业数据波动加剧：6月就业为负，7月回升，8月再度下滑，9月又明显反弹。同时，失业率从4.3%上升至 4.4%。部分分析认为，这是更多劳动者重返就业市场所致。\n米兰认为，这份就业报告应推动犹豫不决的官员倾向支持降息。他指出，失业率小幅上升及永久性裁员增加，均显示紧缩政策已对劳动力市场造成压力，而在通胀前景改善之际，“没有必要继续保持如此紧的政策立场”。\n意见分化：部分地区联储主席更倾向按兵不动\n尽管威廉姆斯释放鸽派信号，但并非所有官员都同意再度降息。\n波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）——12月具投票权——表示她“更倾向于维持政策不变”。她指出：经济需求仍具韧性，可能推动企业把关税成本转嫁给消费者；她从调研对象中听到越来越多对通胀的担忧；美联储当前需要维持“略微紧缩”的政策立场。\n她对 CNBC 表示：“保持略微紧缩的政策有助于确保通胀持续下降。未来当然会进一步正常化，但必须谨慎、循序渐进。”\n达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根（Lorie Logan）重申，在已实施两次降息的背景下，除非出现显著的通胀下降或就业市场恶化，否则她难以支持12月再次降息。\n费城联储主席安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）也首次公开表达态度，称她正以“谨慎”的方式看待12月会议。她认为秋季的两次降息是“合适的”，但“每一次降息都抬高了下一次降息的门槛”。\n与此同时，“三人组”成员之一、副主席杰斐逊（Jefferson）近日表示，与通胀上行相比，就业下行风险正在增加，他对降息持开放态度，但强调政策应“缓慢推进”。\n美联储将在 12月9日至10日召开今年最后一次政策会议。随着内部意见分歧加剧、就业数据反复、通胀受关税扰动、市场波动升温，美联储在通胀与增长之间的平衡将变得更加微妙。12月是否会迎来今年第三次降息，将成为全球市场关注的焦点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":1.5,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,".DJI":1.5,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MYMmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SPY":1.5,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335186904461408,"gmtCreate":1722839287998,"gmtModify":1722839807373,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581588317757356","idStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holy sh....","listText":"Holy sh....","text":"Holy sh....","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d321cc52e6a6c1f86a4b2e41bc626c16","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335186904461408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283480019734728,"gmtCreate":1710247860136,"gmtModify":1710251528839,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581588317757356","idStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","listText":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","text":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/283480019734728","repostId":"1168053302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168053302","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1710246644,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168053302?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-12 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168053302","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"US CPI YoY Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.1%)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5889035925b31691d094d1900524c4b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"105\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.</p><p>A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-12 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5889035925b31691d094d1900524c4b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"105\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.</p><p>A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168053302","content_text":"Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":1.1,"YMmain":1.1,"NQmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947208000,"gmtCreate":1683143491801,"gmtModify":1683165725953,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581588317757356","idStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","listText":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","text":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947208000","repostId":"1185631860","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185631860","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1683136852,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185631860?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-04 02:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185631860","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a ye","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.<br/>Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.<br/>The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“<br/>The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.<br/>Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.<br/>The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.<br/>Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-04 02:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.<br/>Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.<br/>The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“<br/>The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.<br/>Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.<br/>The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.<br/>Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185631860","content_text":"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":283480019734728,"gmtCreate":1710247860136,"gmtModify":1710251528839,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581588317757356","idStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","listText":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","text":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/283480019734728","repostId":"1168053302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168053302","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1710246644,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168053302?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-12 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168053302","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"US CPI YoY Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.1%)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5889035925b31691d094d1900524c4b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"105\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.</p><p>A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-12 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5889035925b31691d094d1900524c4b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"105\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.</p><p>A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168053302","content_text":"Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":1.1,"YMmain":1.1,"NQmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":506717908750816,"gmtCreate":1764732214531,"gmtModify":1764732218219,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581588317757356","idStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/506717908750816","repostId":"2588096989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2588096989","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1764731539,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2588096989?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-12-03 11:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Everyone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588096989","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.QT was the Fed shrinking its...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.</p><p>QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic&#39;s whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.</p><p>Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about &#34;ample reserves&#34; and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.</p><h2 id=\"id_1832511598\">The motel closed at midnight</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.</p></blockquote><p>The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed&#39;s overflow tank for Wall Street&#39;s cash.</p><p>Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.</p><p>At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.</p><p>As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed&#39;s manager called it a night.</p><p>This is being sold as &#34;normalization.&#34; That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone.</p><p>While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.</p><p>Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn&#39;t.</p><p>Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.</p><p>If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. &#34;Higher-for-longer&#34; would be the market&#39;s initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of &#34;is my money-market fund actually safe?&#34;</p><p>We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2b3f4908f6e804334ee260f4b120c1f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_647746906\">The spare tire they said they&#39;d never need</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p></blockquote><p>Then there&#39;s the Standing Repo Facility. That&#39;s the Fed&#39;s emergency lending window. The backstop they said they&#39;d &#34;hardly ever use.&#34; The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It&#39;s the central bank&#39;s credit card for when things get weird.</p><p>It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p><p>Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it&#39;s Tuesday.</p><p>Here&#39;s the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed&#39;s own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed&#39;s supposed &#34;emergency&#34; rate. That&#39;s not a technical adjustment. That&#39;s a failure of monetary control. That&#39;s the Fed admitting it can&#39;t actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.</p><p>When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don&#39;t have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.</p><h2 id=\"id_1560962788\">Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here&#39;s why.</h2><blockquote><p>The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p></blockquote><p>The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn&#39;t announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.</p><p>The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it&#39;s wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.</p><p>That&#39;s not policy. That&#39;s damage control.</p><p>So what do you do? Here&#39;s the short version: Make sure your &#34;safe&#34; money isn&#39;t the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.</p><p>For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.</p><p>Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.</p><p>For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don&#39;t take the bait. I&#39;ve said it before and I&#39;ll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p><p>For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.</p><p>For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the &#34;I don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the &#34;I really, really don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.</p><h2 id=\"id_3282049461\">The confession nobody wants to hear</h2><blockquote><p>Check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p></blockquote><p>The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.</p><p>It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.</p><p>The next act will be quiet &#34;reserve-management&#34; buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.</p><p>You cannot fix the Fed&#39;s pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p><p>The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they&#39;re trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.</p><p>Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Everyone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEveryone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-03 11:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.</p><p>QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic&#39;s whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.</p><p>Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about &#34;ample reserves&#34; and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.</p><h2 id=\"id_1832511598\">The motel closed at midnight</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.</p></blockquote><p>The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed&#39;s overflow tank for Wall Street&#39;s cash.</p><p>Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.</p><p>At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.</p><p>As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed&#39;s manager called it a night.</p><p>This is being sold as &#34;normalization.&#34; That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone.</p><p>While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.</p><p>Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn&#39;t.</p><p>Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.</p><p>If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. &#34;Higher-for-longer&#34; would be the market&#39;s initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of &#34;is my money-market fund actually safe?&#34;</p><p>We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2b3f4908f6e804334ee260f4b120c1f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_647746906\">The spare tire they said they&#39;d never need</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p></blockquote><p>Then there&#39;s the Standing Repo Facility. That&#39;s the Fed&#39;s emergency lending window. The backstop they said they&#39;d &#34;hardly ever use.&#34; The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It&#39;s the central bank&#39;s credit card for when things get weird.</p><p>It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p><p>Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it&#39;s Tuesday.</p><p>Here&#39;s the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed&#39;s own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed&#39;s supposed &#34;emergency&#34; rate. That&#39;s not a technical adjustment. That&#39;s a failure of monetary control. That&#39;s the Fed admitting it can&#39;t actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.</p><p>When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don&#39;t have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.</p><h2 id=\"id_1560962788\">Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here&#39;s why.</h2><blockquote><p>The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p></blockquote><p>The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn&#39;t announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.</p><p>The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it&#39;s wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.</p><p>That&#39;s not policy. That&#39;s damage control.</p><p>So what do you do? Here&#39;s the short version: Make sure your &#34;safe&#34; money isn&#39;t the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.</p><p>For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.</p><p>Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.</p><p>For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don&#39;t take the bait. I&#39;ve said it before and I&#39;ll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p><p>For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.</p><p>For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the &#34;I don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the &#34;I really, really don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.</p><h2 id=\"id_3282049461\">The confession nobody wants to hear</h2><blockquote><p>Check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p></blockquote><p>The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.</p><p>It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.</p><p>The next act will be quiet &#34;reserve-management&#34; buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.</p><p>You cannot fix the Fed&#39;s pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p><p>The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they&#39;re trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.</p><p>Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2588096989","content_text":"The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic's whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about \"ample reserves\" and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.The motel closed at midnightThe Fed's shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed's overflow tank for Wall Street's cash.Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed's manager called it a night.This is being sold as \"normalization.\" That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed's shock absorber is gone.While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn't.Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. \"Higher-for-longer\" would be the market's initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of \"is my money-market fund actually safe?\"We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.The spare tire they said they'd never needThe Fed's Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It's been getting real weird.Then there's the Standing Repo Facility. That's the Fed's emergency lending window. The backstop they said they'd \"hardly ever use.\" The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It's the central bank's credit card for when things get weird.It's been getting real weird.Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it's Tuesday.Here's the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed's own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed's supposed \"emergency\" rate. That's not a technical adjustment. That's a failure of monetary control. That's the Fed admitting it can't actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don't have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here's why.The government buying its own debt isn't a sign of strength. It's a sign it ran out of other buyers.The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn't announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it's wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.That's not policy. That's damage control.So what do you do? Here's the short version: Make sure your \"safe\" money isn't the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don't take the bait. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn't a sign of strength. It's a sign it ran out of other buyers.For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the \"I don't trust the system\" trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the \"I really, really don't trust the system\" trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.The confession nobody wants to hearCheck where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.The next act will be quiet \"reserve-management\" buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.You cannot fix the Fed's pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they're trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"ESmain":2,"YMmain":2,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"NQmain":2,"US10Y.BOND":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502754222674016,"gmtCreate":1763751339284,"gmtModify":1763751341661,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581588317757356","idStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502754222674016","repostId":"2585404721","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585404721","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"FX168","home_visible":1,"media_name":"FX168","id":"1059947868","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a80f9d4086d7680bdea6ba04addf782"},"pubTimestamp":1763748327,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2585404721?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-11-22 02:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Amazing big reversal! The Fed's No. 3 man ignites the probability of interest rate cuts in a sentence, U.S. stocks surge, and the Dow surges more than 700 points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585404721","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社 讯 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周五释放新的政策信号，称在12月的政策会议上，他可能支持进一步降息。这一表态迅速推动市场对再次降息的押注大幅升温，美股趁势强势反弹。尽管他对未来政策持开放态度，但威廉姆斯警告称，近期关税上调正暂时阻碍通胀回落至美联储2%的目标。他估算关税对通胀的贡献在 0.5 至 0.75 个百分点之间。美联储将在 12月9日至10日召开今年最后一次政策会议。","content":"<p><html><body><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News New York Fed President John<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>(John Williams) released new policy signals on Friday (Nov. 21), saying that at the December policy meeting, he may support further rate cuts. This statement quickly pushed the market's bet on another interest rate cut to heat up sharply, and U.S. stocks took advantage of the trend to rebound strongly.</p><p>Speaking in Santiago, Chile, Mr Williams said he believed the current monetary policy was still in a state of \"moderate tightening\"\"but moderated from before\". He added: \"So,<strong>I think there is still room in the near future to further adjust the Federal Funds rate target range to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, thus maintaining the balance between achieving the dual objectives.</strong>”</p><p><span><span><span><strong>Investors quickly interpreted this as a clear signal from the top of the Federal Reserve: the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is rising.</strong></span></span></span></p><p>While he is open to future policy, Williams warned that recent tariff hikes are temporarily preventing inflation from falling back to the Fed's 2% target. He estimated the contribution of tariffs to inflation at between 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points. However, he still expects inflation to fall back next year.</p><p><strong>Since Williams is vice chairman of the FOMC and part of an informal \"leadership troika\" with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, his comments are seen by the market as an important hint of the direction of policy winds.</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>Krishna Guha, head of global policy at ISI, pointed out in a report to clients that although there is some room for ambiguity in the expression \"recent\", \"the most direct interpretation is to point to the next meeting\". He added that although this may be Williams' personal opinion, on core policy issues such as interest rates, the public statements of the president and vice president of the New York Fed are \"almost always approved by the chairman\", and \"it would be serious professional misconduct to release such a signal without Powell's nod\".</p><p>Williams was particularly sensitive to speaking out about interest rates at this time. The FOMC, which has always been known as \"consensus-driven\" but is often criticized for lacking diversity in thinking, is now clearly divided internally.</p><p>One group of officials believes that the current policy still inhibits economic growth and still needs to be adjusted; The other faction is worried about inflation, insisting that there is no need for further easing under the background of steady economic growth and continuous interest rate cuts in September and October.</p><p>While Williams has not gone deep into the long-term interest rate path, at least in the short term,<strong>Fed brass seem inclined to support another rate cut</strong>。</p><p>In this context, Williams'dovish stance is of particular concern. In the past few weeks, the market has been significantly volatile due to the debate over whether the AI sector is bubbling, rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the Fed's policy.</p><p><h3><strong>Markets react quickly: probability of rate cuts soars to more than 70%</strong></h3>On the same day,<strong>Fed Governor Stephen Miran also spoke, saying that if he is the decisive key vote, he would prefer to support a 25 basis point rate cut instead of the 50 basis points that have been called for many times before.</strong>During his short tenure on the board, Milan has been more aggressive, insisting on \"super-sharp interest rate cuts\", which is clearly at odds with some of his peers who want to keep interest rates unchanged.</p><p><strong>Affected by the speeches of Williams and Milan, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December to soar from 30%-40% on Thursday to more than 70%.<span><span><span>According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently see a 73% probability of a rate cut in December.</span></span></span></strong></p><p><strong>U.S. stocks rallied strongly on Friday after Williams hinted that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 709 points, or 1.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>Index up 1.3%; The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.</strong></p><p><div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747862214\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)</p><p>\"We think interest rates should really be cut,\" Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said in an interview with CNBC. \"The key depends on the next jobs report. If the data is significantly weak, it will really convince the market to support interest rate cuts.\"</p><p>The previous trading day saw a sharp reversal on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The strong third-quarter financial report rose by more than 700 points, but then the rally quickly retreated, and all three major indexes closed sharply lower. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve may stand still in December.</p><p>Even with a rebound on Friday, the three major indexes will still record significant losses this week. The S&P 500 and the Dow are both down about 2% this week, while the Nasdaq is down about 3% cumulatively.</p><p>Speaking of recent market pressures, Hatfield said it was more like a \"common post-earnings season valuation correction\", noting that \"the bubble part of the market is suffering a brutal decline\".</p><p><strong>Cryptocurrencies also took a significant hit, with Bitcoin falling about 2% on Friday and widening its losses to more than 10% during the week, falling to its lowest level since April, reflecting a marked cooling of market risk appetite.</strong></p><p><div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747902621\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)</p><p>\"The only question is, where will the market bottom out?\" Hatfield said.</p><p>The industry generally believes that Williams' voice \"prevented another possible round of selling in time\". Market risk sentiment improved significantly, driven by the strength of most sectors outside technology stocks.</p><p>Guha of Evercore ISI pointed out: \"Before Williams' speech, several Fed officials had expressed reservations about the interest rate cut in December, but they all deliberately avoided making a clear denial. Perhaps they realized that this tug-of-war about the interest rate cut in December was evolving into a test of the Fed's governance ability, so it was necessary to leave room for Powell to make decisions.\"</p><p><h3><strong>Strong employment data confuses policy path</strong></h3>The comments come as markets are still digesting the September jobs report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. New jobs were added in September, data shows<strong>119,000 people</strong>Far higher than economists expected<strong>51,000 people</strong>, reversing a weak performance after a downward revision in August.</p><p>Recently, the fluctuation of employment data has intensified: employment was negative in June, rebounded in July, fell again in August, and rebounded significantly in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to<strong>4.4%</strong>。 Some analysts believe that this is caused by more workers returning to the job market.</p><p>Milan believes the jobs report should push the inclination of hesitant officials to support rate cuts. He pointed out that a slight rise in unemployment and an increase in permanent layoffs both show that tightening has put pressure on the labour market and that \"there is no need to continue to maintain such a tight policy stance\" at a time when the inflation outlook improves.</p><p><h3><strong>Opinion differentiation: Fed chairmen in some regions prefer to stand still</strong></h3>Despite Williams's dovish signals, not all officials agreed to cut rates again.</p><p><strong>Boston Fed President Susan Collins</strong>— — December voting rights — — represented<strong>She is' more inclined to leave policy unchanged'</strong>。 She pointed out: Economic demand remains resilient, which may push companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers; She hears more and more concerns about inflation from survey respondents; The Fed currently needs to maintain \"<strong>slightly tightened</strong>\"Policy positions.</p><p>\"Keeping a slightly tighter policy helps ensure that inflation continues to fall. There will certainly be further normalization going forward, but it has to be careful and gradual,\" she told CNBC.</p><p><strong>Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that against the backdrop of two rate cuts already implemented, she would struggle to support another rate cut in December unless there is a significant decline in inflation or a worsening job market.</strong></p><p><strong>Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also made a public statement for the first time, saying she is looking at the December meeting in a \"cautious\" way.</strong>She thinks the two rate cuts in the autumn are \"appropriate\" but \"each one raises the bar for the next one\".</p><p>In the meantime,<strong>Vice Chairman Jefferson, one of the \"trio\" members, said recently that downside risks to employment are increasing compared with upward inflation, and he was open to interest rate cuts, but stressed that policy should be \"moved slowly\".</strong></p><p><strong>The Federal Reserve will hold its last policy meeting of the year on Dec. 9-10.</strong>The Fed's balance between inflation and growth will become more delicate as internal differences of opinion intensify, employment data repeats, inflation is disturbed by tariffs, and market volatility heats up. Whether December will usher in the third interest rate cut this year will become the focus of global market attention.</p><p></div></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazing big reversal! The Fed's No. 3 man ignites the probability of interest rate cuts in a sentence, U.S. stocks surge, and the Dow surges more than 700 points</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazing big reversal! The Fed's No. 3 man ignites the probability of interest rate cuts in a sentence, U.S. stocks surge, and the Dow surges more than 700 points\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059947868\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a80f9d4086d7680bdea6ba04addf782);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">FX168 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-11-22 02:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News New York Fed President John<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>(John Williams) released new policy signals on Friday (Nov. 21), saying that at the December policy meeting, he may support further rate cuts. This statement quickly pushed the market's bet on another interest rate cut to heat up sharply, and U.S. stocks took advantage of the trend to rebound strongly.</p><p>Speaking in Santiago, Chile, Mr Williams said he believed the current monetary policy was still in a state of \"moderate tightening\"\"but moderated from before\". He added: \"So,<strong>I think there is still room in the near future to further adjust the Federal Funds rate target range to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, thus maintaining the balance between achieving the dual objectives.</strong>”</p><p><span><span><span><strong>Investors quickly interpreted this as a clear signal from the top of the Federal Reserve: the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is rising.</strong></span></span></span></p><p>While he is open to future policy, Williams warned that recent tariff hikes are temporarily preventing inflation from falling back to the Fed's 2% target. He estimated the contribution of tariffs to inflation at between 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points. However, he still expects inflation to fall back next year.</p><p><strong>Since Williams is vice chairman of the FOMC and part of an informal \"leadership troika\" with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, his comments are seen by the market as an important hint of the direction of policy winds.</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>Krishna Guha, head of global policy at ISI, pointed out in a report to clients that although there is some room for ambiguity in the expression \"recent\", \"the most direct interpretation is to point to the next meeting\". He added that although this may be Williams' personal opinion, on core policy issues such as interest rates, the public statements of the president and vice president of the New York Fed are \"almost always approved by the chairman\", and \"it would be serious professional misconduct to release such a signal without Powell's nod\".</p><p>Williams was particularly sensitive to speaking out about interest rates at this time. The FOMC, which has always been known as \"consensus-driven\" but is often criticized for lacking diversity in thinking, is now clearly divided internally.</p><p>One group of officials believes that the current policy still inhibits economic growth and still needs to be adjusted; The other faction is worried about inflation, insisting that there is no need for further easing under the background of steady economic growth and continuous interest rate cuts in September and October.</p><p>While Williams has not gone deep into the long-term interest rate path, at least in the short term,<strong>Fed brass seem inclined to support another rate cut</strong>。</p><p>In this context, Williams'dovish stance is of particular concern. In the past few weeks, the market has been significantly volatile due to the debate over whether the AI sector is bubbling, rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the Fed's policy.</p><p><h3><strong>Markets react quickly: probability of rate cuts soars to more than 70%</strong></h3>On the same day,<strong>Fed Governor Stephen Miran also spoke, saying that if he is the decisive key vote, he would prefer to support a 25 basis point rate cut instead of the 50 basis points that have been called for many times before.</strong>During his short tenure on the board, Milan has been more aggressive, insisting on \"super-sharp interest rate cuts\", which is clearly at odds with some of his peers who want to keep interest rates unchanged.</p><p><strong>Affected by the speeches of Williams and Milan, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December to soar from 30%-40% on Thursday to more than 70%.<span><span><span>According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently see a 73% probability of a rate cut in December.</span></span></span></strong></p><p><strong>U.S. stocks rallied strongly on Friday after Williams hinted that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 709 points, or 1.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>Index up 1.3%; The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.</strong></p><p><div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747862214\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)</p><p>\"We think interest rates should really be cut,\" Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said in an interview with CNBC. \"The key depends on the next jobs report. If the data is significantly weak, it will really convince the market to support interest rate cuts.\"</p><p>The previous trading day saw a sharp reversal on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The strong third-quarter financial report rose by more than 700 points, but then the rally quickly retreated, and all three major indexes closed sharply lower. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve may stand still in December.</p><p>Even with a rebound on Friday, the three major indexes will still record significant losses this week. The S&P 500 and the Dow are both down about 2% this week, while the Nasdaq is down about 3% cumulatively.</p><p>Speaking of recent market pressures, Hatfield said it was more like a \"common post-earnings season valuation correction\", noting that \"the bubble part of the market is suffering a brutal decline\".</p><p><strong>Cryptocurrencies also took a significant hit, with Bitcoin falling about 2% on Friday and widening its losses to more than 10% during the week, falling to its lowest level since April, reflecting a marked cooling of market risk appetite.</strong></p><p><div><img src=\"https://static.fx168api.com/img/user/e7480e51ba115b2a34770fa4628fbdfa/outside1763747902621\"/></div>(Dow 1-hour chart, source: FX168)</p><p>\"The only question is, where will the market bottom out?\" Hatfield said.</p><p>The industry generally believes that Williams' voice \"prevented another possible round of selling in time\". Market risk sentiment improved significantly, driven by the strength of most sectors outside technology stocks.</p><p>Guha of Evercore ISI pointed out: \"Before Williams' speech, several Fed officials had expressed reservations about the interest rate cut in December, but they all deliberately avoided making a clear denial. Perhaps they realized that this tug-of-war about the interest rate cut in December was evolving into a test of the Fed's governance ability, so it was necessary to leave room for Powell to make decisions.\"</p><p><h3><strong>Strong employment data confuses policy path</strong></h3>The comments come as markets are still digesting the September jobs report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. New jobs were added in September, data shows<strong>119,000 people</strong>Far higher than economists expected<strong>51,000 people</strong>, reversing a weak performance after a downward revision in August.</p><p>Recently, the fluctuation of employment data has intensified: employment was negative in June, rebounded in July, fell again in August, and rebounded significantly in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to<strong>4.4%</strong>。 Some analysts believe that this is caused by more workers returning to the job market.</p><p>Milan believes the jobs report should push the inclination of hesitant officials to support rate cuts. He pointed out that a slight rise in unemployment and an increase in permanent layoffs both show that tightening has put pressure on the labour market and that \"there is no need to continue to maintain such a tight policy stance\" at a time when the inflation outlook improves.</p><p><h3><strong>Opinion differentiation: Fed chairmen in some regions prefer to stand still</strong></h3>Despite Williams's dovish signals, not all officials agreed to cut rates again.</p><p><strong>Boston Fed President Susan Collins</strong>— — December voting rights — — represented<strong>She is' more inclined to leave policy unchanged'</strong>。 She pointed out: Economic demand remains resilient, which may push companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers; She hears more and more concerns about inflation from survey respondents; The Fed currently needs to maintain \"<strong>slightly tightened</strong>\"Policy positions.</p><p>\"Keeping a slightly tighter policy helps ensure that inflation continues to fall. There will certainly be further normalization going forward, but it has to be careful and gradual,\" she told CNBC.</p><p><strong>Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that against the backdrop of two rate cuts already implemented, she would struggle to support another rate cut in December unless there is a significant decline in inflation or a worsening job market.</strong></p><p><strong>Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also made a public statement for the first time, saying she is looking at the December meeting in a \"cautious\" way.</strong>She thinks the two rate cuts in the autumn are \"appropriate\" but \"each one raises the bar for the next one\".</p><p>In the meantime,<strong>Vice Chairman Jefferson, one of the \"trio\" members, said recently that downside risks to employment are increasing compared with upward inflation, and he was open to interest rate cuts, but stressed that policy should be \"moved slowly\".</strong></p><p><strong>The Federal Reserve will hold its last policy meeting of the year on Dec. 9-10.</strong>The Fed's balance between inflation and growth will become more delicate as internal differences of opinion intensify, employment data repeats, inflation is disturbed by tariffs, and market volatility heats up. Whether December will usher in the third interest rate cut this year will become the focus of global market attention.</p><p></div></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Guha在给客户的报告中指出，虽然“近期”这一表述存在一定模糊空间，但“最直接的解读，就是指向下一次会议”。他补充称，尽管这可能是威廉姆斯的个人观点，但在利率等核心政策问题上，纽约联储主席与副主席的公开表态“几乎总是经过主席批准”，“如果未经鲍威尔点头就释放这样的信号，将属于严重的职业失当”。\n威廉姆斯此时关于利率的发声尤其敏感。一直以“共识驱动”著称、却常被批评缺乏思维多样性的FOMC，如今内部出现了明显分歧。\n一派官员认为当前政策仍对经济增长形成抑制，仍需调整；另一派则担忧通胀，坚持在经济增速稳健、且9月与10月已连续降息的背景下，没有必要进一步宽松。\n虽然威廉姆斯没有深入展开长期利率路径，但至少在短期内，美联储高层似乎倾向于支持再次降息。\n在这种背景下，威廉姆斯的鸽派立场格外引人关注。过去几周，市场已因人工智能板块是否泡沫化的争论、地缘政治风险上升及美联储政策不确定性而出现明显震荡。\n市场迅速反应：降息概率飙升至 70% 以上\n同日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）也发表讲话表示，如果他是决定性的关键一票，他倾向于支持 25 个基点 的降息，而非此前多次呼吁的 50 个基点。米兰在加入董事会的短暂任期内一直态度更为激进，坚持“超大幅降息”，与部分希望维持利率不变的同僚观点产生明显分歧。\n受威廉姆斯和米兰讲话影响，市场预计美联储12月再度降息的概率从周四的 30%-40% 暴涨至 70% 以上。根据CME FedWatch工具，交易员目前认为12月降息的概率达 73%。\n在威廉姆斯暗示美联储今年可能再次降息后，美国股市周五强劲反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨709点，涨幅1.6%；标普500指数上涨1.3%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.1%。\n\n\n\n(道指1小时走势图，来源：FX168)\n“我们认为确实应该降息，”Infrastructure Capital Advisors创始人兼CEO Jay Hatfield在接受CNBC采访时表示，“关键取决于下一份就业报告。如果数据明显疲弱，才会真正说服市场支持降息。”\n此前一个交易日，华尔街经历剧烈反转。道指在周四一度因英伟达强劲的三季度财报大涨700点以上，但随后涨势快速回吐，三大指数收盘均大幅下挫，市场担忧美联储可能在12月按兵不动。\n即便周五反弹，三大股指本周仍将录得显著跌幅。标普500指数、道指本周均下跌约2%，纳斯达克则累计下跌约3%。\n谈及近期市场压力，Hatfield表示，这更像是“常见的财报季后估值回调”，并指出市场中“泡沫部分正遭遇惨烈杀跌”。\n加密货币也受到显著冲击，比特币周五下跌约2%，周内跌幅扩大至逾10%，跌至自4月以来最低水平，反映市场风险偏好明显降温。\n\n\n\n(道指1小时走势图，来源：FX168)\n“唯一的问题是，市场会在什么位置触底？”Hatfield表示。\n业内人士普遍认为，威廉姆斯的发声“及时阻止了可能出现的又一轮抛售”。在科技股外大部分板块走强的带动下，市场风险情绪明显改善。\nEvercore ISI的Guha指出：“在威廉姆斯讲话前，已有数位联储官员对12月降息表达保留意见，但他们都刻意避免做出明确否定。或许他们意识到，这场关于12月降息的拉锯，正演变为对美联储治理能力的考验，因此需要为鲍威尔留出决策空间。”\n强劲就业数据令政策路径更扑朔迷离\n这些评论发布之际，市场仍在消化因政府停摆导致推迟发布的9月就业报告。数据显示，9月新增就业 11.9 万人，远高于经济学家预期的 5.1 万人，扭转了8月向下修正后的疲弱表现。\n近期就业数据波动加剧：6月就业为负，7月回升，8月再度下滑，9月又明显反弹。同时，失业率从4.3%上升至 4.4%。部分分析认为，这是更多劳动者重返就业市场所致。\n米兰认为，这份就业报告应推动犹豫不决的官员倾向支持降息。他指出，失业率小幅上升及永久性裁员增加，均显示紧缩政策已对劳动力市场造成压力，而在通胀前景改善之际，“没有必要继续保持如此紧的政策立场”。\n意见分化：部分地区联储主席更倾向按兵不动\n尽管威廉姆斯释放鸽派信号，但并非所有官员都同意再度降息。\n波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）——12月具投票权——表示她“更倾向于维持政策不变”。她指出：经济需求仍具韧性，可能推动企业把关税成本转嫁给消费者；她从调研对象中听到越来越多对通胀的担忧；美联储当前需要维持“略微紧缩”的政策立场。\n她对 CNBC 表示：“保持略微紧缩的政策有助于确保通胀持续下降。未来当然会进一步正常化，但必须谨慎、循序渐进。”\n达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根（Lorie Logan）重申，在已实施两次降息的背景下，除非出现显著的通胀下降或就业市场恶化，否则她难以支持12月再次降息。\n费城联储主席安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）也首次公开表达态度，称她正以“谨慎”的方式看待12月会议。她认为秋季的两次降息是“合适的”，但“每一次降息都抬高了下一次降息的门槛”。\n与此同时，“三人组”成员之一、副主席杰斐逊（Jefferson）近日表示，与通胀上行相比，就业下行风险正在增加，他对降息持开放态度，但强调政策应“缓慢推进”。\n美联储将在 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