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2021-09-23

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Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?

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How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!

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10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169565516","media":"36氪","summary":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息","content":"<p>Because of the account banning and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has led to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale will lay off employees. Especially under the swallowing up of some We Media traffic, there seems to be no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon closed? At the beginning, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. Since Amazon officials kept quiet, this number gradually acquiesced into a fact.</p><p>Even at the event that Amazon held last Friday when the world's first comprehensive seller training center settled in Hangzhou, it kept its mouth shut about the number of store closures, and did not plan to disclose it to the public, hoping that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will definitely not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a question-and-answer session of the settlement event into a press conference of the store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's global vice president and CEO of Amazon's global store opening Asia-Pacific region, said frankly, \"Today's release was originally aimed at the training center settling in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the blocking of the account, so we made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her disclosure, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the brand sales authority of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused comments, as well as many other violations. In the past period of time, Amazon has given many warnings to these sellers, and they have many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate the rules, so this time they decided to terminate the cooperative relationship with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller's violation of regulations was serious, and Amazon gave him many opportunities and still refused to change, so it was forced to take the last step.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final figure must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, with frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect on?</p><p>Advances in Algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. That is, Amazon has two account sweeps every year, once on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts 2 months in advance for its own large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; Another time is two months before Christmas, that is, mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, a brand authorizes 50 stores, and blocking a few has no impact at all. \"In fact, as long as the shops closed don't exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about it.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's big explosion in the industry, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether commodity reviews are true or false. In the past, many self-operated Listing (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, later, because the error was too serious, Amazon did not continue to shut down on a large scale.</p><p>But the technology has been improving until this year it began to mature a lot. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging according to the logic of the store, but according to the logic of the brand dimension. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand and exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of shop groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Amazon's new CEO Andy Jassy (Andy Jassy) was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site invitation reviews and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, it will definitely be a bad review invited back. So this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money can't be done.\" said the above seller.</p><p>Vendor Logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and itself is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all digital assets of the seller on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping mall, and Amazon is a department store. So this laid the groundwork for some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the rules, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, and Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent liability will be jointly and severally liable for the lawsuit.</p><p>This has also been confirmed by Cindy Tai. Amazon's fund freezing period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the refund and return compensation fees of the seller's past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial institution and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the list.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon has done badly is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-identification link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests to be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes silently, the future is probably a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In terms of the complaint process, Cindy Tai, global vice president of Amazon and executive president of Amazon Global Store Open Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated due to violations, Amazon will provide sellers with opportunities to complain; As long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was wrong, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a plan on how to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36 Krypton's knowledge from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the diverse changes of Amazon's rules. The main problem is that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the entire cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What I have been looking for is which companies can go through the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to get out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the company's comprehensive capabilities on user needs, marketing methods, supply chain influence, etc., but it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even scarcer. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein and Shein has made all investors very excited and look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>On the way out in the future, the first thing the industry needs to reconstruct is consciousness. In the past, the distribution path has been a dead end, and the sooner the transformation opportunities will be. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because it was two years late to transform its brand. When I chased back, I found that the probability of success was very small. This is also the dividend path dependence left in the early stages of the industry. Because it was easier to make quick money in the past, people are reluctant to take a difficult and correct path with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category for deep cultivation. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and rude mode work? It is because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and services. Third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brands to be more determined. Under such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce going out of the circle, and the title banning is accelerating. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across borders. For industries that seem to have no threshold, in fact, the threshold is not low, especially in the practical stage. Maybe part of the pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but the advantage of building competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using capital power. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively average, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, you will obviously find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing funds by capital is only the bottom-level role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investors were talents such as some large manufacturers, highly educated people, and rich industry experience. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business structure. In other words, if you don't accept the investment, the capital will be invested in your competitors.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Because of the account banning and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has led to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale will lay off employees. Especially under the swallowing up of some We Media traffic, there seems to be no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon closed? At the beginning, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. Since Amazon officials kept quiet, this number gradually acquiesced into a fact.</p><p>Even at the event that Amazon held last Friday when the world's first comprehensive seller training center settled in Hangzhou, it kept its mouth shut about the number of store closures, and did not plan to disclose it to the public, hoping that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will definitely not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a question-and-answer session of the settlement event into a press conference of the store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's global vice president and CEO of Amazon's global store opening Asia-Pacific region, said frankly, \"Today's release was originally aimed at the training center settling in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the blocking of the account, so we made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her disclosure, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the brand sales authority of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused comments, as well as many other violations. In the past period of time, Amazon has given many warnings to these sellers, and they have many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate the rules, so this time they decided to terminate the cooperative relationship with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller's violation of regulations was serious, and Amazon gave him many opportunities and still refused to change, so it was forced to take the last step.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final figure must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, with frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect on?</p><p>Advances in Algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. That is, Amazon has two account sweeps every year, once on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts 2 months in advance for its own large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; Another time is two months before Christmas, that is, mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, a brand authorizes 50 stores, and blocking a few has no impact at all. \"In fact, as long as the shops closed don't exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about it.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's big explosion in the industry, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether commodity reviews are true or false. In the past, many self-operated Listing (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, later, because the error was too serious, Amazon did not continue to shut down on a large scale.</p><p>But the technology has been improving until this year it began to mature a lot. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging according to the logic of the store, but according to the logic of the brand dimension. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand and exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of shop groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Amazon's new CEO Andy Jassy (Andy Jassy) was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site invitation reviews and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, it will definitely be a bad review invited back. So this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money can't be done.\" said the above seller.</p><p>Vendor Logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and itself is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all digital assets of the seller on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping mall, and Amazon is a department store. So this laid the groundwork for some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the rules, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, and Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent liability will be jointly and severally liable for the lawsuit.</p><p>This has also been confirmed by Cindy Tai. Amazon's fund freezing period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the refund and return compensation fees of the seller's past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial institution and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the list.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon has done badly is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-identification link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests to be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes silently, the future is probably a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In terms of the complaint process, Cindy Tai, global vice president of Amazon and executive president of Amazon Global Store Open Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated due to violations, Amazon will provide sellers with opportunities to complain; As long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was wrong, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a plan on how to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36 Krypton's knowledge from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the diverse changes of Amazon's rules. The main problem is that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the entire cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What I have been looking for is which companies can go through the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to get out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the company's comprehensive capabilities on user needs, marketing methods, supply chain influence, etc., but it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even scarcer. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein and Shein has made all investors very excited and look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>On the way out in the future, the first thing the industry needs to reconstruct is consciousness. In the past, the distribution path has been a dead end, and the sooner the transformation opportunities will be. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because it was two years late to transform its brand. When I chased back, I found that the probability of success was very small. This is also the dividend path dependence left in the early stages of the industry. Because it was easier to make quick money in the past, people are reluctant to take a difficult and correct path with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category for deep cultivation. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and rude mode work? It is because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and services. Third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brands to be more determined. Under such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce going out of the circle, and the title banning is accelerating. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across borders. For industries that seem to have no threshold, in fact, the threshold is not low, especially in the practical stage. Maybe part of the pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but the advantage of building competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using capital power. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively average, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, you will obviously find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing funds by capital is only the bottom-level role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investors were talents such as some large manufacturers, highly educated people, and rich industry experience. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business structure. In other words, if you don't accept the investment, the capital will be invested in your competitors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dffe01d72356572c6df4fa7726ddb0c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2169565516","content_text":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息不对称是亚马逊到底封了多少个中国店铺？开始最主流传言是有5万家，由于亚马逊官方一直保持不对外发声，这个数字就逐渐默认成事实。\n即使在亚马逊上周五召开的全球首个综合性卖家培训中心落户杭州活动上，对于封店数量还是三缄其口，不计划对外披露，希望冷处理就过去。\n被邀请的媒体们肯定不会放过这个难得机会，所以活生生把一场落户活动问答环节变成了封店潮发布会。以至于亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai都坦言，“今天这个发布本来是针对培训中心落户杭州的，只是没想到这么多媒体关注账号被封之事，所以就一起进行了首次回应。”\n据她透露，过去5个月，亚马逊关闭了约600个中国卖家品牌销售权限，涉及品牌数约3000个，包括一些大卖家。“这些卖家都有多次、反复、严重滥用评论行为，以及有许多其他违规行为。在过去一段时间，亚马逊对这些卖家进行过多次警告，他们也有多次申诉机会，甚至恢复了一些停用过的账号。但是这些卖家持续违规，所以这次决定终止和这些卖家的合作关系。”\n翻译过来就是，被封掉的卖家违规行为严重，亚马逊给了很多次机会仍屡教不改，所以被迫走了最后一步。\n“亚马逊只是公布了前五个月的数据，6、7、8月数据没有披露，这三个月也有很多店铺受影响。所以最终的数字一定比这个大很多。”一位资深从业者告诉36氪。\n对于严重依赖亚马逊的卖家来说，损失确实不小。比如曾经的华南城四少之有棵树，被封掉店铺340个，冻结资金1.3亿元。直接导致员工离职一半，收入下滑一半，净亏损超7亿元；另一大卖通拓科技被禁售关闭店铺数 54 个， 冻结资金 4143 万元。\n那么，亚马逊这次封店力度和强度为什么这么大？背后让我们真正反思的又有哪些？\n算法的进步\n事实上，行业内都知道一个潜规则。就是亚马逊每年固定有两次账号扫荡，一次是在7月左右的会员日（Prime Day），亚马逊为了自己这个大型促销活动通常会提前2个月关掉一些账号，也就是在4月底到5月初；另一次是在圣诞节的前2个月，即10月中旬或者11月初。\n因为看到了这个巨大的漏洞，所以很多卖家都有自己的应对之策。比如一个品牌授权50个店铺，封掉几个完全没有影响。“其实只要关掉的店铺没有超过一定比例，连老板都不需要知道这事。”某卖家告诉36氪。\n经过去年行业大爆炸后，今年所有卖家也都更乐观，完全没看到这件事背后真正的风险。其实早在3年前，亚马逊就在利用算法机器人在检测商品评论是真实还是虚假。曾经也封掉了很多自营Listing（产品页面），比如深圳某卖家的Listing就从1.7万缩减至1000，朋友圈也是一篇哀嚎。好在后来因为有误差太严重，亚马逊就没再大规模继续封停。\n但技术一直在进步，直到今年开始成熟许多。加上亚马逊改变了规则，不再是按照店铺逻辑评判，而是按照品牌维度逻辑。只要算法识别出有问题的品牌，也超过了一定比例，旗下店铺一律关停。所以才有了大量店铺群被封。\n36氪也注意到，亚马逊新任CEO安迪·杰西(Andy Jassy)，此前是亚马逊云计算CEO，不是电商负责人。这也证明亚马逊作为一家数据驱动公司，对于平台数据真实度的保护更加重视。\n“相信这次事件以后，很多卖家会开始采用白帽玩法。以及亚马逊也鼓励站内邀评，通过站内信邀请用户评价。如果产品和体验不好，邀回来的肯定是差评。所以这件事对整个生态是很有好处的。如果一直劣币驱逐良币，良币就不可能做起来。”上述卖家说道。\n供应商逻辑\n除了算法的持续迭代外，亚马逊对卖家定义也和国内天猫淘宝不一样。不一样地方在于，亚马逊是把平台上所有卖家视为供应商，自己相当于一个零售商。\n也就是说，卖家在亚马逊上的所有数字资产都归属亚马逊。即使你是苹果，是耐克，都是亚马逊的供应商。\n“可以这么理解，天猫类似于一个购物中心，亚马逊是一个百货公司。所以这就埋下了亚马逊的一些处罚机制伏笔。如果是天猫卖家违规，平台会动你的货和资金吗？亚马逊谈的更多是销售规模，天猫谈才GMV。”智云天工销售副总周骏告诉36氪。\n对于亚马逊就不同，一旦收了顾客的货款，就要为用户负责。只要发现卖家可能对顾客造成伤害，就会先把资金冻结，以应付后续会不会因为起诉承担连带责任。\n这也得到了Cindy Tai的证实，亚马逊资金冻结周期为90天，主要用来承担卖家过去客户的退款退货赔偿费用，以及其他未支付费用。90天后，如果没有违规会可申请取回。\n所以，在亚马逊开店，其实不是自己在卖货，而是卖家给平台供货，平台再帮忙卖货。亚马逊不是行政和司法机构，没权力冻结资金和货。但就因为亚马逊的供应商逻辑，因此只要违反了供应商规则，就得从名录里踢掉。\n“从价值观来讲，刷单是严重的撒谎、造假行为，我们都是深恶痛绝的。但也不能一味污名化中国卖家，行业里大家都在没日没夜干活。亚马逊做的不好的地方是，起码有个听证会，给卖家一个自辨环节。对于卖家来说，该争取的合法权益必须争取。如果这次默默过去，未来估计是噩梦。”周骏说。\n在申诉流程上，亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai表示，如果一个卖家账号因为违规行为被停用，亚马逊会为卖家提供申诉机会；只要这个卖家证明亚马逊判断有误，或者证明违规行为只是暂时或无意失误，并提供如何避免再次违规方案，这些账号会恢复正常运营。\n但据36氪从多位卖家处了解到，从亚马逊申诉成功的概率几乎为0。同时，对于亚马逊的规则变化多样把握也不是很准，其中主要问题在于邮件沟通这种方式效率很低。\n出路在哪儿？\n对于整个跨境电商行业来说，目前还处于很早期阶段，甚至都还谈不上一个行业。36氪从走访的多家投资机构中发现，投资人对行业的乐观判断未受到任何影响。一直在寻找的是，哪些企业能穿越周期，有意识有能力走出一个新品牌。\n塑造一个品牌很难，需要的是企业对用户需求、营销玩法、供应链影响等综合能力，但正因为门槛高，所以才更加稀缺。特别是安克创新和Shein的成功，让所有投资人都很兴奋，期待找到下一个这样的投资标的。\n在未来出路上，行业首先要重构的是意识。过往的铺货路径已经是死胡同，越早转型机会越多。行业某大卖家就是因为晚了2年转型品牌，才丧失了很多先发红利。等回头猛追才发现，成功概率微乎其微。这个也是行业早期阶段留下的红利路径依赖，因为过去方式赚快钱更容易，所以都不太愿意走一条有积累、难而正确的路。\n然后，找到一个细分的垂直品类深耕。如果说之前是粗旷式的经营，现在肯定要进行精细化运营。而且对品类要求门槛变得更高。为什么之前那种简单粗暴模式行不通？就是因为消费者在觉醒，对产品质量、服务要求变得更高，亚马逊这样的第三方也在逐渐改变策略，鼓励品牌决心更强。如此环境之下，没有精细化的能力，或许未来压根没有利润可言。\n其次，引入一些高素质的技术人才。疫情是跨境电商出圈的开始，封号是加速，带来的直接影响就是更多创业者跨界进入。看似没有门槛的行业，实则门槛不低，特别到了实操阶段。也许直到现在还能走通一部分纯生意逻辑，但是打造竞争壁垒这件事优势就需要更多高素质人才加入。特别是偏技术端，就目前行业从业者来看，能提升的空间还是很大。\n最后，善于借助资本力量。一直以来，因为跨境电商赚钱容易，甚至不缺现金流。所以对资本的欲望也相对一般，但如果梳理安克创新和Shein就会明显发现，这两家公司之所以在资本市场有这么高的估值，特别是后者的高增长。离不开资本的助力，资本无好坏，核心在于如何去利用。资本提供资金只是底层作用，更大的赋能对做强做大帮助大。\n从任何一个行业发展周期来看，资本大规模进入是在渗透率有一定提高之后。这时候投资的是一些大厂、高学历、丰富行业经验等人才，这些创新力量在技术推动下开始走出新的路子，以及重构商业格局。换句话说，你不接受投资，资本就会投资你的竞争对手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860401476,"gmtCreate":1632193536795,"gmtModify":1676530722519,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860401476","repostId":"2169684551","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881911500,"gmtCreate":1631284760100,"gmtModify":1676530520376,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881911500","repostId":"1144889232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883091778,"gmtCreate":1631186053494,"gmtModify":1676530490511,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883091778","repostId":"2166195813","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166195813","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"新型财经科技信息服务提供商，专注TMT。技术改变商业，商业改变世界，我们纪录这个过程，并聚集这些改变世界的人。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"TMTPost","id":"1065587721","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c"},"pubTimestamp":1631170956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166195813?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 15:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"When was \"Nvidia\" born in China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166195813","media":"TMTPost","summary":"这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>CEO Huang Renxun (Image source: Nvidia official website)</p><p>\"The product I'm about to show incorporates new GPU-accelerated computing capabilities and has Mellanox high-performance network. The product that complements our last piece of the puzzle is-the world's first CPU processor designed for terabyte-level data center accelerated computing. Its secret code name is Grace.\"</p><p>This is a passage from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's speech at the GTC Summit in April 2021. However, what is unexpected is that people didn't know until August 12 after Nvidia's self-exposure that the content of this speech, which was less than 100 words and 14 seconds, was not Huang Renxun himself, but a synthetic \"digital avatar\", that is, the \"virtual Huang Renxun\" image formed by Nvidia GPU processor and Omniverse software platform.</p><p>This incident triggered heated discussions on technologies and concepts such as virtual reality, metaverse, and AI face-changing. At the same time, it also allowed \"Nvidia\", the American chip overlord, to \"get out of the circle\" from the semiconductor industry and enter the public's field of vision.</p><p>Since its establishment in 1993, under the leadership of Huang Renxun, Nvidia has successfully created and led the category of GPU (graphics processor) chips, covering the entire PC device GPU to server GPU market. In the past five years,<b>Nvidia's market value has grown from US $31 billion to US $505 billion, becoming the world's seventh largest semiconductor supplier. It is artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>A hot star company in the field of (AI) chips.</b></p><p>At the same time, Nvidia's market value exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After that, the domestic semiconductor market saw greater market opportunities in the GPU and AI chip tracks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300474\">Jing Jiawei</a>, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>, Muxi Integrated Circuit and other companies are all gathering in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In the past two years, the domestic semiconductor industry has undergone changes. Due to Huawei HiSilicon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">SMIC</a>The impact of the US \"entity list\" and the chain reaction triggered by the global chip shortage have made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to purchase US semiconductor products, and the demand for \"domestic substitution\" has become stronger.</p><p>On June 29, 2020, due to the further upgrade of the US \"Export Administration Regulations\" and the continuous adjustment of the members of the entity list, Intel \"temporarily suspended\" the supply of chips to Inspur Group.</p><p>Although Inspur subsequently announced on July 3 that Intel had resumed supplying it, one is the world's largest supplier of PC and cloud service x86 architecture chips, and the other is China's largest server manufacturer. The temporary supply cut-off crisis between the two companies has reminded the entire Chinese cloud computing and semiconductor industries:<b>As the demand for computing power becomes stronger and stronger, China needs to mass-produce fully independent and controllable domestic GPU and server chip products.</b>This highlights that \"domestic substitution\" is becoming the biggest driving force for the development of China's semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition, as the world's largest chip sales country, China has not had a chip giant like \"Nvidia\", and the big market has not produced a matching large company.</b>According to statistics from IC Insight, the global semiconductor market in 2020 will be US $395.7 billion, of which the mainland China market will be US $43.4 billion, making it the world's largest market, accounting for 36.24% of the global share. However, the total output value of semiconductor companies based in mainland China in 2020 was only US $8.3 billion, accounting for only 5.9% of the market size.</p><p><b>Who can cut off a corner of such a huge cake? When will the semiconductor industry create \"China Nvidia\"?</b></p><p><h2>Missed Golden Age</h2>GPU graphics processor, also known as display chip and vision processor, was originally proposed by Nvidia in 1999. It is a microprocessor dedicated to running graphics operations on personal computers, workstations, game consoles and mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, VR devices).</p><p>As the parallel computing advantages of GPU are gradually tapped, the application fields of GPU have expanded from graphics processing to high-performance computing, and gradually become the most mature and widely used general-purpose chip for Al computing. In June 2020, Nvidia launched the A100 Tensor Core GPU based on the Ampere architecture, becoming the world's most powerful AI chip.</p><p>From the perspective of application terminals, GPUs can be divided into PC-side GPUs, server GPUs and mobile GPUs, corresponding to three architectures, namely, independent graphics cards composed of dedicated circuit boards and components, shared integrated graphics cards, and mobile GPUs and other chips or modules are packaged together into highly integrated SoCs-used in multiple application scenarios including mobile phones, automotive electronics, and AI.</p><p><b>since<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>After the acquisition of Canadian GPU manufacturer ATI in 2006, in the field of PC and server GPUs, the global GPU market is currently monopolized by the \"American chip giants\"-Intel, AMD and Nvidia. Intel has obvious advantages in the integrated GPU market, while Nvidia and AMD are separated in the independent GPU market.</b></p><p>According to data from research firm Jon Peddie Research, in the first quarter of 2021, in the global PC-side GPU market, Intel (Intel) topped the list with a market share of 68%, AMD and Nvidia with 17% and 14% respectively, and the total share of the three companies is close to 100%; In the global independent GPU field, Nvidia is the leader in the data center GPU market, accounting for 81% of the market share, with a leading edge, while AMD ranks second with a 19% share.</p><p>In 2019 alone, Nvidia occupied 90% of China's AI training chip market with its V100 series and other products, firmly grasping China's huge AI chip sales market.</p><p>One of the core reasons why Nvidia can continue to be the \"chip overlord\" lies in its \"light design pattern.\" Nvidia does not engage in chip manufacturing and packaging, but is handed over to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>After the OEM is completed, it enjoys the dividends of advanced manufacturing technology such as 7nm. According to the financial report, between 2016 and 2021, Nvidia's revenue increased by 233%, and its operating profit doubled to US $4.5 billion. In the three months to May this year, sales soared 84% year-on-year, and gross profit margin reached 64%.</p><p><b>In fact, China entered the field of GPU chip design very early, but the results were not satisfactory.</b></p><p><b>Since the 1970s, China began to introduce semiconductor and integrated circuit technology and production lines. But the result is that we have fallen into the a vicious circle of \"introducing from generation to generation and lagging behind from generation to generation\", coupled with the adverse impact of the \"Hanxin No. 1\" fake chip incident on society, China's \"independent processor\" has suffered serious setbacks, and China has actively promoted WTO globalization and other factors, thus missing the golden period of the development of the global semiconductor industry, and downstream companies can only \"make it better than buy\".</b></p><p>It was not until 2000, marked by the promulgation of the national \"Document No. 18\", that China's semiconductors gradually formed an industrial organization form of \"separation of the three industries\" of design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, and introduced \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>A number of chip manufacturing (Foundry) companies represented by \"have been built and put into production in China, and their technical level has been rapidly improved.</p><p>At present, companies such as Jingjiawei, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology, Cambrian, and Muxi Integrated Circuit are all gathering in the general processor track.</p><p>In 2014, \"Jingjiawei\" (300474. SH), which started as a military aircraft graphics display control module, successfully developed the military GPU chip JM5400, and then successfully developed the second-generation GPU chip JM7200 with a 28nm process technology in 2018. Jingjiawei has moved from military customization to general-purpose GPUs, becoming the only company in the world and the only company in China to achieve commercial mass production of independent GPUs.</p><p>In addition to Jingjiawei, in March 2021, Tianshu Zhixin released the first GPGPU (General Purpose Graphics Processor) manufactured by a 7-nanometer process in China, which removes 30% of the graphics rendering part of the traditional GPU and is only used to deal with artificial intelligence (AI)) Born of application; In June this year, Suiyuan Technology released China's largest AI computing chip \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip, the \"Yunsui T20\" training accelerator card based on Suisi 2.0 and the \"Yunsui T21\" training OAM module.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the performance of the JM7200 chip developed by Jingjiawei is only equivalent to the level of Nvidia GTX 640 in 2012, which is difficult to meet the application needs of enterprise customers. Even Suiyuan Technology's \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip is only tied with Nvidia's A100. Two of the six items tested by Benchmark significantly surpassed the performance of Nvidia's A100. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"Suiyuan Technology releases China's largest AI computing chip to accelerate the implementation of three major business directions\")</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cb73d2787595547a9ed01926f4dfbe\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"1926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The reason behind this is mainly due to the late start of China's semiconductor industry, the high technical threshold of chips, high cost elasticity, and high concentration of industries, which makes the overall R&D investment, technology, and talents of Chinese GPU chip companies lag behind foreign countries, thus improving product performance and technology There is still a gap with chip giants, and it is still difficult for downstream companies to escape from the situation of the \"American Chip Big Three\".</b></p><p>Taking R&D investment as an example, in the ten years from 2011 to 2020, Jingjiawei's total R&D investment expenses were RMB 627 million, while Nvidia's R&D investment in 2020 reached US $3.924 billion, or approximately RMB 25.323 billion. In the past ten years, Nvidia has invested more than 120 billion yuan, a difference of more than 190 times.</p><p>In terms of talents, as of the first half of 2021, the number of Nvidia employees is as high as 18,975, and the total number of Jingjiawei employees is 1,174, far lower than the 2,000 employees of AMD's Shanghai R&D center.</p><p>\"The AI chip and GPU chip market is quite special. Unlike traditional dedicated processors, the technology is very complex. It requires a large amount of data and needs to be combined with specific algorithms before it can be put into market use.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>Xie Zhonghui, deputy general manager of China, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App in April this year that if a company wants to make its first AI chip solid, it usually takes more than two or three years.</p><p>In his view, chip semiconductor itself is an industry with large investment, long cycle, and slow results. Complete localization of technology requires long-term and sustained accumulation of capital, talent, and technology. It is difficult to use the Internet thinking of \"spending money and seeing returns\" to deal with.</p><p><b>In addition, the software and hardware ecosystem combined with CUDA technology is another important reason for the large gap between domestic chip companies and Nvidia.</b></p><p>In 2006, Nvidia released the parallel computing platform CUDA, which contains a series of development tools. Only by installing and using this platform can complex parallel computing be performed. Anyone who owns a laptop equipped with Nvidia GPU can use CUDA to perform scientific and convenient programming calculations, such as deep learning, AI algorithms, etc., and develop related software. Over the past ten years or so, NVIDIA has persistently promoted CUDA, making more government-level and enterprise-level software developed based on this platform, combining NVIDIA's self-developed GPU hardware with CUDA software to efficiently implement applications.</p><p>In contrast, there is currently no series of platforms in China that are deeply bound to CUDA and Nvidia's hardware, and the gap in technical barriers is very obvious. Most domestic GPU manufacturers adopt strategies that are compatible with the CUDA open source framework, such as Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin, etc., and are preparing to cultivate their own software ecosystem on this basis.</p><p>\"In the short term, it is easier to develop domestic GPUs compatible with CUDA. After all, writing operators is a labor-intensive industry. If users migrate, 100% migration is required, and the entire set of code must run on your chip. If the amount of code is small, the need There are not so many operators, and the difficulty is relatively low. But in the long run, it is still necessary to get rid of the idea of compatibility and develop its own core technology.\"</p><p>However, there are also companies that choose not to be compatible with the CUDA ecosystem. For example, Suiyuan Technology, which makes both AI training and inference chips, has comprehensively upgraded its \"Yusuan TopsRider\" software platform and the new \"Yunsui Cluster\" this year, hoping to have ecological dominance.</p><p><b>To sum up, these domestic chip companies that benchmark Nvidia are still in the initial stage of development. The industrialization and marketization capabilities of AI chip technology are weak, and there is no actual large-scale use. There is still a long way to go to surpass or replace \"China Nvidia\".</b></p><p>Yan Guihai, CEO of Zhongke Yushu, said in an interview with Titanium Media App that although China's demand side is still the largest single market in the world and its growth rate is among the best, the \"demand side\" is still very strong, but in terms of high-end chips, whether it is design or There is still a big gap in manufacturing, and the \"supply side\" is not strong enough. He pointed out that the quality of the supply side depends not only on one enterprise, but on the capabilities of the entire industry chain. It is still unrealistic to build such a large-scale and comprehensive leading enterprise in the short term.</p><p>Founded in 2018, Zhongke Yushu is a developer of dedicated computing architecture. It was incubated from the State Key Laboratory of Computer Architecture, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Today, the company's valuation has exceeded 1 billion yuan. On July 27 this year, Zhongke Yushu completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing, led by Huatai Innovation, followed by Lingjun Investment and old shareholder Guoxin Xichuang.</p><p>Huang Liming, partner of Hillhouse and head of software and hard technology at Hillhouse Venture Capital, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App that although the GPU market has broad prospects, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It is difficult to make it directly into \"Nvidia\". In addition to the technical difficulty, it must be done in combination with strong applications-involving software system and software ecology, which is extremely demanding for startups.</p><p>Hillhouse launched the independent VC brand Hillhouse Venture Capital in February 2020. Since then, it has invested in the field of chip semiconductors, including semiconductor IP company Xinyaohui, EDA manufacturer Xinhuazhang, GPU platform Biren Technology, DPU company Nebula Zhilian, plus Tianke Heda in silicon carbide, Minxin Semiconductor in optical chip field, and mobile phone baseband Xingsi Semiconductor, etc.</p><p>Huang Liming emphasized that Hillhouse judges that there will not be many companies that can run out in this direction, whether overseas or domestic.</p><p><h2>The tuyere has arrived</h2>\"Let's not worry about how to replace Nvidia now. The road is step by step. I think first of all, China must have domestic AI chips, general-purpose GPUs, FPGAs and other underlying computing power. As long as there is domestic market demand, we must have many opportunities.\" Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of Huaying Capital, told Titanium Media App that the domestic semiconductor industry has arrived, and China is now equipped with \"the right time, the right location, and the right people\" to enter the GPU market.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan gave an example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">Kingsoft Office</a>Although products are inferior to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>office suite, but the market has given a market value of more than 110 billion yuan. One of the important reasons behind it is that China must have a domestic office, and the same principle applies to the domestic GPU market.</p><p>Huaying Capital is one of the earliest private equity funds in China to deploy mobile Internet and cultural industries. In recent years, the To B field has also become the key investment field of Huaying Capital. At present, Huaying Capital has invested in more than 30 projects in the To B field, with a total investment of over 700 million yuan, which is built by Zhang Gaonan, a technical investor. In the fields related to data middle platform and underlying computing power, Huaying Capital has invested in projects such as Biren Technology, Tianyun Big Data, and Zhongke Haiwei.</p><p>In fact, as a general platform spanning visual computing and AI computing, GPU has a huge market space.<b>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>It is estimated that by 2027, the market space for domestic substitution in the GPU field will exceed US $34.1 billion. In addition to the existing game market, there is room for further development in industrial, medical, military aerospace and other directions.</b></p><p>In March of this year, \"Biren Technology\", a general-purpose smart chip designer co-founded by Zhang Wen, the former president of SenseTime, completed the B round of financing. Since its establishment in September 2019, the company's total financing amount has exceeded 4.7 billion yuan. Investors include Hillhouse Venture Capital, Huaying Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, China Merchants Capital, BAI Capital, Guosheng Group National Reform Fund, etc., with a valuation of more than 10 billion yuan, one of the \"unicorn\" companies with the fastest growth momentum in the semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition to Biren, companies that have entered the GPU field such as Muxi Integrated Circuit and Moore Thread have also completed financing.</b></p><p>On August 25, GPU manufacturer Muxi Integrated Circuit announced the completion of a RMB 1 billion Series A financing. The founders Chen Weiliang and Yang Jian are all from the American chip giant AMD. Investors include China State-owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund Co., Ltd.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00810\">China Internet Investment</a>Fund, Jingwei China, Holly Capital, Sequoia China, Lightspeed China, Guochuang Zhongding, Smart Internet Industry Fund, Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Fund, Lenovo Venture Capital, etc.; The Moore Thread, established in 2020, claims to have completed two rounds of multi-billion-yuan financing within 100 days. The team members are mainly from Nvidia, and investors include Shenzhen Venture Capital and Sequoia Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">China Fund</a>, China Merchants Venture Capital, ByteDance, Pony.ai, Wuyuan Capital, etc.</p><p><b>However, an interesting phenomenon is that the above three start-ups, Biren, Muxi, and Moore Thread, are veritable \"PPT financing core manufacturing\", and none of them completed the tape-out (assembly line trial production) of the first chip at the time of financing.</b></p><p>Why are market investors willing to open their wallets to this? Several investors said in an interview with Titanium Media App that these projects can receive a large amount of capital support because of the early stage of investment. The main focus is on the team and the track: the AI chip track has arrived, and the senior management team is also From the \"American Chip Big Three\".</p><p>\"I think these companies need to be given opportunities and patience. It is impossible for 500 people to write PPT. Manufacturing chips is a matter of 5 to 10 years. The reason why we are willing to invest is not speculation or deception. I think, investing in The semiconductor track itself is risky, requires long-term plans, and requires strong enough risk-taking ability, which is completely different from investing in Internet model innovation.\" The above-mentioned investor told Titanium Media App.</p><p>However, some investors in the semiconductor industry pointed out that the above-mentioned investment projects essentially hope that the market value will be high and the rate of return will be higher. Especially in the \"chip fever\" environment, venture capital institutions need to constantly look for these GPU and AI chip companies in the middle and early stages. Targets, hoping to get a higher return from it.</p><p>In addition, in this wave of GPU entrepreneurship, the founding team developed the \"American Chip Big Three\". For example, Zheng Jinshan, chief scientist of Tianshu Zhixin, was the chief technical expert of AMD; Mu Xi's founding team is mainly from AMD. CEO Chen Weiliang once served as senior director of graphics research and development at AMD, and CTO Yang Jian once served as AMD Fellow (academician); Li Xinrong, the newly appointed co-CEO of Biren Technology, once served as the global vice president of AMD, and Chen Wenzhong, senior vice president of Biren Technology, also served in AMD.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Gaonan said that AMD is the top two chip giants in the GPU field. The core research and development of GPUs is in Shanghai, while the research and development of graphics rendering is in the United States. Companies can go to the executives of AMD and Nvidia to communicate. The final choice must be the leader in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>Yan Guihai believes that in subdividing emerging tracks, relying on the \"potential energy\" of demand-side applications, Chinese chip companies concentrate their superior forces, base themselves on serving local companies, and highlight the agility of development. They have the opportunity to surpass \"Nvidia\" in terms of product definition and solution iteration cycle. These chip giants.<b>He predicts that a number of domestic GPU and DPU companies with leading technologies will emerge within 10 years.</b></p><p>\"Among the five links of the chip industry: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials, and EDA, the most relevant to application is design, and our biggest advantage lies in application, so we have a great opportunity to make a breakthrough in the\" design \"link, and then gradually expand the victory territory from point to area. The so-called \"overtaking in corners\" is still a catch-up strategy. It is more likely to occupy new strategic commanding heights by cutting into a new track facing the future and accelerating with all your might. It is hoped that within 10 years, a group of enterprises with leading technology, solid products and strategic awareness will emerge. \" Yan Guihai told Titanium Media App.</p><p>Zhang Wen, founder of Biren Technology, said that the capability requirements for chip companies have been upgraded from product level to system level and ecological level. In no more than 5 years, China has caught up with or even led the international level in the field of AI chip design. He emphasized that surpassing Nvidia requires redefining a product and a market.</p><p><h2>The tens of billions of DPU chip market is \"exploding\"</h2>In Huang Renxun's view, the data processing unit (DPU) responsible for transmitting and processing data in the data center is forming the \"three pillars of future computing\" together with CPU and GPU. When Chinese chip companies focus on GPUs, Nvidia has set its sights on the two new markets of CPU and DPU.</p><p>In September 2020, Nvidia announced that it planned to acquire British chip designer Arm from a Japanese software group for US $40 billion, which is expected to write the largest merger and acquisition in the semiconductor industry. However, this deal is controversial and is still awaiting approval from governments such as the European Union, Britain, the United States and China. But in April 2021, Nvidia announced its entry into the data center CPU market and released the Grace CPU processor, which is what Huang Renxun said at the beginning of this article. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"The British government intervenes, Nvidia's US $40 billion acquisition of Arm transaction changes\")</p><p>In addition to CPU and GPU, Nvidia is also deploying DPU. In 2019, Nvidia announced that it would acquire Israeli network chip manufacturer Mellanox for US $6.9 billion in all-cash, and eventually won it. As for this largest acquisition in Nvidia's history, what Huang Renxun values most is Milosi's unique ability in data center technology and other aspects.<b>In October 2020, NVIDIA launched the DPU for the first time-NVIDIA BlueField series data processors.</b></p><p>Fundamentally, on the one hand, DPU is more flexible and secure, and more importantly, DPU can liberate the computing power of CPU, release the load of server, significantly reduce the overall cost with low power consumption, and even improve the performance of AI and machine learning applications.</p><p>According to IDC statistics, the global demand for computing power will double every 3.5 months, far exceeding the current growth rate of computing power. Driven by this, global computing, storage and network infrastructure are also undergoing fundamental changes: some workloads with excessive data volume occupy too much CPU resources, and various \"X\" PU chips that cooperate with them have emerged as the times require. In addition to chips such as GPU and FPGA, DPU is the next \"X\" PU.</p><p>People in the industry have made an image metaphor about this. The network is like building a road. In the past 1G and 10G era, the road was not wide enough, and there were more and more cars. In order to balance the pressure, we have increased traffic lights and invested more traffic police to coordinate resources higher. This has improved the original efficiency a lot, but it is still not enough. We must expand the road first, which means the bandwidth is increased, but the road has changed from 2 to 4. It will still be blocked only by traffic lights and limited traffic police, but we can't increase the traffic police indefinitely, which requires the road to be smarter and help solve the congestion.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan pointed out that a large amount of network management is in the CPU, occupying container capabilities, while DPU provides space capabilities for server intelligence. A large amount of virtualization space can increase computing power requirements.</p><p><b>With 2020, the reputation of DPUs surpasses the launch of infrastructure processors (IPUs) and SmartNICs launched by rival Intel, and every company eyeing the data center business needs a piece of this field. DPU has become a new track for major chip giants and start-up companies to compete for research and development. Domestic DPUs are now almost in a state of blooming. Sequoia, Hillhouse Ventures, CDH, and SoftBank China have all begun to enter the market.</b></p><p>In April this year, Tianyancha data showed that domestic DPU chip supplier \"Yunbao Intelligent\" completed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Investment, Sequoia Capital, Yaotu Capital, etc. joint angel round financing; At the end of May, Xinqiyuan completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Pre-A round financing, with investors including SoftBank China, Pudong Science and Technology Group, etc.; On July 27, DPU chip developer \"Zhongke Yushu\" completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing led by Huatai Innovation; On August 30, DPU chip developer Nebula Zhilian announced the completion of hundreds of millions of yuan in angel round financing, led by Hillhouse Venture Capital, with CDH VGC and Walden International China Fund participating in the investment; At the beginning of September, IDG Capital launched the \"Yunmai Xinlian\" angel round financing project.</p><p>\"DPU may become the third computing power chip after CPU and GPU, but from a structural point of view, DPU will be more heterogeneous and more dedicated.\" Yan Guihai said in an interview with Titanium Media App and others that DPU The background is the demand for computing delay, data security, and resource virtualization brought about by the end-edge-cloud integration trend caused by the data explosion in the intelligent era. The CPU is overwhelmed by these non-business loads, and an ideal object is urgently needed to share these computational loads.</p><p><b>Toubao Research Institute predicts that China's DPU market size is expected to reach US $3.74 billion in 2025. The global DPU market size is expected to reach US $13.57 billion in 2025.</b>At the same time, the report also pointed out that data circulation is the largest application market of DPU, among which bare metal services have a rigid demand for DPU. The application of DPU in the telecom market is mainly in edge computing scenarios, with a penetration rate of less than 5%. DPUs for the field of intelligent driving are still in the exploratory stage, and it is expected that DPUs will be deployed in the field of intelligent driving in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170c585dab44018726df81a32c63d62\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>China's DPU market size, forecast from 2020 to 2025, source: Toubao Research Institute</p><p>Yan Guihai pointed out that the performance of CPU increased from 30% per year 5-10 years ago to less than 3% per year three years ago. The network bandwidth still increases by about 35% every year.</p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>For example, the challenge encountered by the company at that time was that the compliance inspection of transaction orders was too slow and the transaction efficiency needed to be improved. Therefore, Zhongke Yushu, Zhongtai Securities and Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Co., Ltd. jointly developed a set of extremely fast risk control system solutions to speed up this process. Zhongke Yushu has successively developed multiple sets of products and solutions such as ultra-low latency smart network cards and data computing accelerator cards, mainly for high bandwidth, low latency, data-intensive and other scenarios. The company has achieved quarterly revenue of tens of millions this year. Zhongke Yushu's next-generation DPU chip is expected to be designed by the end of 2021 and is expected to process up to 200G network bandwidth data.</p><p><b>However, although the DPU market is hot, the concept is newer, there are more unknowns, and the investment risk will be greater.</b></p><p>Lu Sheng, CEO of Xinqiyuan, pointed out that the current barriers to the DPU segmentation track are still relatively high. In addition to technical barriers, there are also market barriers, which require customers to continuously iterate, especially in conjunction with the continuous upgrade of open source software to adapt to customers. Rapidly changing software and hardware environment. Therefore, before investing, VC (venture capital) must recognize the track and have enough patience. He emphasized that investors need to constantly observe the market and adjust their judgments, and no one can predict the future development prospects of DPU now.</p><p>Some media also believe that when Nvidia enters the newly opened CPU and DPU battlefield, it may be good for Chinese GPU manufacturers, especially when Nvidia still spends a lot of energy on the US $40 billion acquisition of British chip designer Arm. For GPU companies, it may be an opportunity to catch up.</p><p>As Zhang Gaonan told Titanium Media App, \"Logically speaking, things with low thresholds are usually not scarce. (Chip semiconductor track) Some things are difficult and require long-term investment. Although they are high-risk, but someone has to do it. This is a long-term investment that is really beneficial to the country. In fact, investment should be encouraged. Otherwise, if no one does these difficult things that require long-term investment, you will never get up to the next level.\"</p><p>Zhang Gaonan emphasized that although venture capital must pursue returns, he believes that when the entire capital allocation is reasonable, taking part of the start-ups that invest in the semiconductor track not only has strong social significance, but also some kind of long-term value investment. important manifestation.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When was \"Nvidia\" born in China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen was \"Nvidia\" born in China?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065587721\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">TMTPost </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 15:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>CEO Huang Renxun (Image source: Nvidia official website)</p><p>\"The product I'm about to show incorporates new GPU-accelerated computing capabilities and has Mellanox high-performance network. The product that complements our last piece of the puzzle is-the world's first CPU processor designed for terabyte-level data center accelerated computing. Its secret code name is Grace.\"</p><p>This is a passage from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's speech at the GTC Summit in April 2021. However, what is unexpected is that people didn't know until August 12 after Nvidia's self-exposure that the content of this speech, which was less than 100 words and 14 seconds, was not Huang Renxun himself, but a synthetic \"digital avatar\", that is, the \"virtual Huang Renxun\" image formed by Nvidia GPU processor and Omniverse software platform.</p><p>This incident triggered heated discussions on technologies and concepts such as virtual reality, metaverse, and AI face-changing. At the same time, it also allowed \"Nvidia\", the American chip overlord, to \"get out of the circle\" from the semiconductor industry and enter the public's field of vision.</p><p>Since its establishment in 1993, under the leadership of Huang Renxun, Nvidia has successfully created and led the category of GPU (graphics processor) chips, covering the entire PC device GPU to server GPU market. In the past five years,<b>Nvidia's market value has grown from US $31 billion to US $505 billion, becoming the world's seventh largest semiconductor supplier. It is artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>A hot star company in the field of (AI) chips.</b></p><p>At the same time, Nvidia's market value exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After that, the domestic semiconductor market saw greater market opportunities in the GPU and AI chip tracks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300474\">Jing Jiawei</a>, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>, Muxi Integrated Circuit and other companies are all gathering in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In the past two years, the domestic semiconductor industry has undergone changes. Due to Huawei HiSilicon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">SMIC</a>The impact of the US \"entity list\" and the chain reaction triggered by the global chip shortage have made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to purchase US semiconductor products, and the demand for \"domestic substitution\" has become stronger.</p><p>On June 29, 2020, due to the further upgrade of the US \"Export Administration Regulations\" and the continuous adjustment of the members of the entity list, Intel \"temporarily suspended\" the supply of chips to Inspur Group.</p><p>Although Inspur subsequently announced on July 3 that Intel had resumed supplying it, one is the world's largest supplier of PC and cloud service x86 architecture chips, and the other is China's largest server manufacturer. The temporary supply cut-off crisis between the two companies has reminded the entire Chinese cloud computing and semiconductor industries:<b>As the demand for computing power becomes stronger and stronger, China needs to mass-produce fully independent and controllable domestic GPU and server chip products.</b>This highlights that \"domestic substitution\" is becoming the biggest driving force for the development of China's semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition, as the world's largest chip sales country, China has not had a chip giant like \"Nvidia\", and the big market has not produced a matching large company.</b>According to statistics from IC Insight, the global semiconductor market in 2020 will be US $395.7 billion, of which the mainland China market will be US $43.4 billion, making it the world's largest market, accounting for 36.24% of the global share. However, the total output value of semiconductor companies based in mainland China in 2020 was only US $8.3 billion, accounting for only 5.9% of the market size.</p><p><b>Who can cut off a corner of such a huge cake? When will the semiconductor industry create \"China Nvidia\"?</b></p><p><h2>Missed Golden Age</h2>GPU graphics processor, also known as display chip and vision processor, was originally proposed by Nvidia in 1999. It is a microprocessor dedicated to running graphics operations on personal computers, workstations, game consoles and mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, VR devices).</p><p>As the parallel computing advantages of GPU are gradually tapped, the application fields of GPU have expanded from graphics processing to high-performance computing, and gradually become the most mature and widely used general-purpose chip for Al computing. In June 2020, Nvidia launched the A100 Tensor Core GPU based on the Ampere architecture, becoming the world's most powerful AI chip.</p><p>From the perspective of application terminals, GPUs can be divided into PC-side GPUs, server GPUs and mobile GPUs, corresponding to three architectures, namely, independent graphics cards composed of dedicated circuit boards and components, shared integrated graphics cards, and mobile GPUs and other chips or modules are packaged together into highly integrated SoCs-used in multiple application scenarios including mobile phones, automotive electronics, and AI.</p><p><b>since<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>After the acquisition of Canadian GPU manufacturer ATI in 2006, in the field of PC and server GPUs, the global GPU market is currently monopolized by the \"American chip giants\"-Intel, AMD and Nvidia. Intel has obvious advantages in the integrated GPU market, while Nvidia and AMD are separated in the independent GPU market.</b></p><p>According to data from research firm Jon Peddie Research, in the first quarter of 2021, in the global PC-side GPU market, Intel (Intel) topped the list with a market share of 68%, AMD and Nvidia with 17% and 14% respectively, and the total share of the three companies is close to 100%; In the global independent GPU field, Nvidia is the leader in the data center GPU market, accounting for 81% of the market share, with a leading edge, while AMD ranks second with a 19% share.</p><p>In 2019 alone, Nvidia occupied 90% of China's AI training chip market with its V100 series and other products, firmly grasping China's huge AI chip sales market.</p><p>One of the core reasons why Nvidia can continue to be the \"chip overlord\" lies in its \"light design pattern.\" Nvidia does not engage in chip manufacturing and packaging, but is handed over to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>After the OEM is completed, it enjoys the dividends of advanced manufacturing technology such as 7nm. According to the financial report, between 2016 and 2021, Nvidia's revenue increased by 233%, and its operating profit doubled to US $4.5 billion. In the three months to May this year, sales soared 84% year-on-year, and gross profit margin reached 64%.</p><p><b>In fact, China entered the field of GPU chip design very early, but the results were not satisfactory.</b></p><p><b>Since the 1970s, China began to introduce semiconductor and integrated circuit technology and production lines. But the result is that we have fallen into the a vicious circle of \"introducing from generation to generation and lagging behind from generation to generation\", coupled with the adverse impact of the \"Hanxin No. 1\" fake chip incident on society, China's \"independent processor\" has suffered serious setbacks, and China has actively promoted WTO globalization and other factors, thus missing the golden period of the development of the global semiconductor industry, and downstream companies can only \"make it better than buy\".</b></p><p>It was not until 2000, marked by the promulgation of the national \"Document No. 18\", that China's semiconductors gradually formed an industrial organization form of \"separation of the three industries\" of design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, and introduced \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>A number of chip manufacturing (Foundry) companies represented by \"have been built and put into production in China, and their technical level has been rapidly improved.</p><p>At present, companies such as Jingjiawei, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology, Cambrian, and Muxi Integrated Circuit are all gathering in the general processor track.</p><p>In 2014, \"Jingjiawei\" (300474. SH), which started as a military aircraft graphics display control module, successfully developed the military GPU chip JM5400, and then successfully developed the second-generation GPU chip JM7200 with a 28nm process technology in 2018. Jingjiawei has moved from military customization to general-purpose GPUs, becoming the only company in the world and the only company in China to achieve commercial mass production of independent GPUs.</p><p>In addition to Jingjiawei, in March 2021, Tianshu Zhixin released the first GPGPU (General Purpose Graphics Processor) manufactured by a 7-nanometer process in China, which removes 30% of the graphics rendering part of the traditional GPU and is only used to deal with artificial intelligence (AI)) Born of application; In June this year, Suiyuan Technology released China's largest AI computing chip \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip, the \"Yunsui T20\" training accelerator card based on Suisi 2.0 and the \"Yunsui T21\" training OAM module.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the performance of the JM7200 chip developed by Jingjiawei is only equivalent to the level of Nvidia GTX 640 in 2012, which is difficult to meet the application needs of enterprise customers. Even Suiyuan Technology's \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip is only tied with Nvidia's A100. Two of the six items tested by Benchmark significantly surpassed the performance of Nvidia's A100. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"Suiyuan Technology releases China's largest AI computing chip to accelerate the implementation of three major business directions\")</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cb73d2787595547a9ed01926f4dfbe\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"1926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The reason behind this is mainly due to the late start of China's semiconductor industry, the high technical threshold of chips, high cost elasticity, and high concentration of industries, which makes the overall R&D investment, technology, and talents of Chinese GPU chip companies lag behind foreign countries, thus improving product performance and technology There is still a gap with chip giants, and it is still difficult for downstream companies to escape from the situation of the \"American Chip Big Three\".</b></p><p>Taking R&D investment as an example, in the ten years from 2011 to 2020, Jingjiawei's total R&D investment expenses were RMB 627 million, while Nvidia's R&D investment in 2020 reached US $3.924 billion, or approximately RMB 25.323 billion. In the past ten years, Nvidia has invested more than 120 billion yuan, a difference of more than 190 times.</p><p>In terms of talents, as of the first half of 2021, the number of Nvidia employees is as high as 18,975, and the total number of Jingjiawei employees is 1,174, far lower than the 2,000 employees of AMD's Shanghai R&D center.</p><p>\"The AI chip and GPU chip market is quite special. Unlike traditional dedicated processors, the technology is very complex. It requires a large amount of data and needs to be combined with specific algorithms before it can be put into market use.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>Xie Zhonghui, deputy general manager of China, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App in April this year that if a company wants to make its first AI chip solid, it usually takes more than two or three years.</p><p>In his view, chip semiconductor itself is an industry with large investment, long cycle, and slow results. Complete localization of technology requires long-term and sustained accumulation of capital, talent, and technology. It is difficult to use the Internet thinking of \"spending money and seeing returns\" to deal with.</p><p><b>In addition, the software and hardware ecosystem combined with CUDA technology is another important reason for the large gap between domestic chip companies and Nvidia.</b></p><p>In 2006, Nvidia released the parallel computing platform CUDA, which contains a series of development tools. Only by installing and using this platform can complex parallel computing be performed. Anyone who owns a laptop equipped with Nvidia GPU can use CUDA to perform scientific and convenient programming calculations, such as deep learning, AI algorithms, etc., and develop related software. Over the past ten years or so, NVIDIA has persistently promoted CUDA, making more government-level and enterprise-level software developed based on this platform, combining NVIDIA's self-developed GPU hardware with CUDA software to efficiently implement applications.</p><p>In contrast, there is currently no series of platforms in China that are deeply bound to CUDA and Nvidia's hardware, and the gap in technical barriers is very obvious. Most domestic GPU manufacturers adopt strategies that are compatible with the CUDA open source framework, such as Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin, etc., and are preparing to cultivate their own software ecosystem on this basis.</p><p>\"In the short term, it is easier to develop domestic GPUs compatible with CUDA. After all, writing operators is a labor-intensive industry. If users migrate, 100% migration is required, and the entire set of code must run on your chip. If the amount of code is small, the need There are not so many operators, and the difficulty is relatively low. But in the long run, it is still necessary to get rid of the idea of compatibility and develop its own core technology.\"</p><p>However, there are also companies that choose not to be compatible with the CUDA ecosystem. For example, Suiyuan Technology, which makes both AI training and inference chips, has comprehensively upgraded its \"Yusuan TopsRider\" software platform and the new \"Yunsui Cluster\" this year, hoping to have ecological dominance.</p><p><b>To sum up, these domestic chip companies that benchmark Nvidia are still in the initial stage of development. The industrialization and marketization capabilities of AI chip technology are weak, and there is no actual large-scale use. There is still a long way to go to surpass or replace \"China Nvidia\".</b></p><p>Yan Guihai, CEO of Zhongke Yushu, said in an interview with Titanium Media App that although China's demand side is still the largest single market in the world and its growth rate is among the best, the \"demand side\" is still very strong, but in terms of high-end chips, whether it is design or There is still a big gap in manufacturing, and the \"supply side\" is not strong enough. He pointed out that the quality of the supply side depends not only on one enterprise, but on the capabilities of the entire industry chain. It is still unrealistic to build such a large-scale and comprehensive leading enterprise in the short term.</p><p>Founded in 2018, Zhongke Yushu is a developer of dedicated computing architecture. It was incubated from the State Key Laboratory of Computer Architecture, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Today, the company's valuation has exceeded 1 billion yuan. On July 27 this year, Zhongke Yushu completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing, led by Huatai Innovation, followed by Lingjun Investment and old shareholder Guoxin Xichuang.</p><p>Huang Liming, partner of Hillhouse and head of software and hard technology at Hillhouse Venture Capital, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App that although the GPU market has broad prospects, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It is difficult to make it directly into \"Nvidia\". In addition to the technical difficulty, it must be done in combination with strong applications-involving software system and software ecology, which is extremely demanding for startups.</p><p>Hillhouse launched the independent VC brand Hillhouse Venture Capital in February 2020. Since then, it has invested in the field of chip semiconductors, including semiconductor IP company Xinyaohui, EDA manufacturer Xinhuazhang, GPU platform Biren Technology, DPU company Nebula Zhilian, plus Tianke Heda in silicon carbide, Minxin Semiconductor in optical chip field, and mobile phone baseband Xingsi Semiconductor, etc.</p><p>Huang Liming emphasized that Hillhouse judges that there will not be many companies that can run out in this direction, whether overseas or domestic.</p><p><h2>The tuyere has arrived</h2>\"Let's not worry about how to replace Nvidia now. The road is step by step. I think first of all, China must have domestic AI chips, general-purpose GPUs, FPGAs and other underlying computing power. As long as there is domestic market demand, we must have many opportunities.\" Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of Huaying Capital, told Titanium Media App that the domestic semiconductor industry has arrived, and China is now equipped with \"the right time, the right location, and the right people\" to enter the GPU market.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan gave an example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">Kingsoft Office</a>Although products are inferior to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>office suite, but the market has given a market value of more than 110 billion yuan. One of the important reasons behind it is that China must have a domestic office, and the same principle applies to the domestic GPU market.</p><p>Huaying Capital is one of the earliest private equity funds in China to deploy mobile Internet and cultural industries. In recent years, the To B field has also become the key investment field of Huaying Capital. At present, Huaying Capital has invested in more than 30 projects in the To B field, with a total investment of over 700 million yuan, which is built by Zhang Gaonan, a technical investor. In the fields related to data middle platform and underlying computing power, Huaying Capital has invested in projects such as Biren Technology, Tianyun Big Data, and Zhongke Haiwei.</p><p>In fact, as a general platform spanning visual computing and AI computing, GPU has a huge market space.<b>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>It is estimated that by 2027, the market space for domestic substitution in the GPU field will exceed US $34.1 billion. In addition to the existing game market, there is room for further development in industrial, medical, military aerospace and other directions.</b></p><p>In March of this year, \"Biren Technology\", a general-purpose smart chip designer co-founded by Zhang Wen, the former president of SenseTime, completed the B round of financing. Since its establishment in September 2019, the company's total financing amount has exceeded 4.7 billion yuan. Investors include Hillhouse Venture Capital, Huaying Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, China Merchants Capital, BAI Capital, Guosheng Group National Reform Fund, etc., with a valuation of more than 10 billion yuan, one of the \"unicorn\" companies with the fastest growth momentum in the semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition to Biren, companies that have entered the GPU field such as Muxi Integrated Circuit and Moore Thread have also completed financing.</b></p><p>On August 25, GPU manufacturer Muxi Integrated Circuit announced the completion of a RMB 1 billion Series A financing. The founders Chen Weiliang and Yang Jian are all from the American chip giant AMD. Investors include China State-owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund Co., Ltd.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00810\">China Internet Investment</a>Fund, Jingwei China, Holly Capital, Sequoia China, Lightspeed China, Guochuang Zhongding, Smart Internet Industry Fund, Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Fund, Lenovo Venture Capital, etc.; The Moore Thread, established in 2020, claims to have completed two rounds of multi-billion-yuan financing within 100 days. The team members are mainly from Nvidia, and investors include Shenzhen Venture Capital and Sequoia Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">China Fund</a>, China Merchants Venture Capital, ByteDance, Pony.ai, Wuyuan Capital, etc.</p><p><b>However, an interesting phenomenon is that the above three start-ups, Biren, Muxi, and Moore Thread, are veritable \"PPT financing core manufacturing\", and none of them completed the tape-out (assembly line trial production) of the first chip at the time of financing.</b></p><p>Why are market investors willing to open their wallets to this? Several investors said in an interview with Titanium Media App that these projects can receive a large amount of capital support because of the early stage of investment. The main focus is on the team and the track: the AI chip track has arrived, and the senior management team is also From the \"American Chip Big Three\".</p><p>\"I think these companies need to be given opportunities and patience. It is impossible for 500 people to write PPT. Manufacturing chips is a matter of 5 to 10 years. The reason why we are willing to invest is not speculation or deception. I think, investing in The semiconductor track itself is risky, requires long-term plans, and requires strong enough risk-taking ability, which is completely different from investing in Internet model innovation.\" The above-mentioned investor told Titanium Media App.</p><p>However, some investors in the semiconductor industry pointed out that the above-mentioned investment projects essentially hope that the market value will be high and the rate of return will be higher. Especially in the \"chip fever\" environment, venture capital institutions need to constantly look for these GPU and AI chip companies in the middle and early stages. Targets, hoping to get a higher return from it.</p><p>In addition, in this wave of GPU entrepreneurship, the founding team developed the \"American Chip Big Three\". For example, Zheng Jinshan, chief scientist of Tianshu Zhixin, was the chief technical expert of AMD; Mu Xi's founding team is mainly from AMD. CEO Chen Weiliang once served as senior director of graphics research and development at AMD, and CTO Yang Jian once served as AMD Fellow (academician); Li Xinrong, the newly appointed co-CEO of Biren Technology, once served as the global vice president of AMD, and Chen Wenzhong, senior vice president of Biren Technology, also served in AMD.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Gaonan said that AMD is the top two chip giants in the GPU field. The core research and development of GPUs is in Shanghai, while the research and development of graphics rendering is in the United States. Companies can go to the executives of AMD and Nvidia to communicate. The final choice must be the leader in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>Yan Guihai believes that in subdividing emerging tracks, relying on the \"potential energy\" of demand-side applications, Chinese chip companies concentrate their superior forces, base themselves on serving local companies, and highlight the agility of development. They have the opportunity to surpass \"Nvidia\" in terms of product definition and solution iteration cycle. These chip giants.<b>He predicts that a number of domestic GPU and DPU companies with leading technologies will emerge within 10 years.</b></p><p>\"Among the five links of the chip industry: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials, and EDA, the most relevant to application is design, and our biggest advantage lies in application, so we have a great opportunity to make a breakthrough in the\" design \"link, and then gradually expand the victory territory from point to area. The so-called \"overtaking in corners\" is still a catch-up strategy. It is more likely to occupy new strategic commanding heights by cutting into a new track facing the future and accelerating with all your might. It is hoped that within 10 years, a group of enterprises with leading technology, solid products and strategic awareness will emerge. \" Yan Guihai told Titanium Media App.</p><p>Zhang Wen, founder of Biren Technology, said that the capability requirements for chip companies have been upgraded from product level to system level and ecological level. In no more than 5 years, China has caught up with or even led the international level in the field of AI chip design. He emphasized that surpassing Nvidia requires redefining a product and a market.</p><p><h2>The tens of billions of DPU chip market is \"exploding\"</h2>In Huang Renxun's view, the data processing unit (DPU) responsible for transmitting and processing data in the data center is forming the \"three pillars of future computing\" together with CPU and GPU. When Chinese chip companies focus on GPUs, Nvidia has set its sights on the two new markets of CPU and DPU.</p><p>In September 2020, Nvidia announced that it planned to acquire British chip designer Arm from a Japanese software group for US $40 billion, which is expected to write the largest merger and acquisition in the semiconductor industry. However, this deal is controversial and is still awaiting approval from governments such as the European Union, Britain, the United States and China. But in April 2021, Nvidia announced its entry into the data center CPU market and released the Grace CPU processor, which is what Huang Renxun said at the beginning of this article. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"The British government intervenes, Nvidia's US $40 billion acquisition of Arm transaction changes\")</p><p>In addition to CPU and GPU, Nvidia is also deploying DPU. In 2019, Nvidia announced that it would acquire Israeli network chip manufacturer Mellanox for US $6.9 billion in all-cash, and eventually won it. As for this largest acquisition in Nvidia's history, what Huang Renxun values most is Milosi's unique ability in data center technology and other aspects.<b>In October 2020, NVIDIA launched the DPU for the first time-NVIDIA BlueField series data processors.</b></p><p>Fundamentally, on the one hand, DPU is more flexible and secure, and more importantly, DPU can liberate the computing power of CPU, release the load of server, significantly reduce the overall cost with low power consumption, and even improve the performance of AI and machine learning applications.</p><p>According to IDC statistics, the global demand for computing power will double every 3.5 months, far exceeding the current growth rate of computing power. Driven by this, global computing, storage and network infrastructure are also undergoing fundamental changes: some workloads with excessive data volume occupy too much CPU resources, and various \"X\" PU chips that cooperate with them have emerged as the times require. In addition to chips such as GPU and FPGA, DPU is the next \"X\" PU.</p><p>People in the industry have made an image metaphor about this. The network is like building a road. In the past 1G and 10G era, the road was not wide enough, and there were more and more cars. In order to balance the pressure, we have increased traffic lights and invested more traffic police to coordinate resources higher. This has improved the original efficiency a lot, but it is still not enough. We must expand the road first, which means the bandwidth is increased, but the road has changed from 2 to 4. It will still be blocked only by traffic lights and limited traffic police, but we can't increase the traffic police indefinitely, which requires the road to be smarter and help solve the congestion.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan pointed out that a large amount of network management is in the CPU, occupying container capabilities, while DPU provides space capabilities for server intelligence. A large amount of virtualization space can increase computing power requirements.</p><p><b>With 2020, the reputation of DPUs surpasses the launch of infrastructure processors (IPUs) and SmartNICs launched by rival Intel, and every company eyeing the data center business needs a piece of this field. DPU has become a new track for major chip giants and start-up companies to compete for research and development. Domestic DPUs are now almost in a state of blooming. Sequoia, Hillhouse Ventures, CDH, and SoftBank China have all begun to enter the market.</b></p><p>In April this year, Tianyancha data showed that domestic DPU chip supplier \"Yunbao Intelligent\" completed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Investment, Sequoia Capital, Yaotu Capital, etc. joint angel round financing; At the end of May, Xinqiyuan completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Pre-A round financing, with investors including SoftBank China, Pudong Science and Technology Group, etc.; On July 27, DPU chip developer \"Zhongke Yushu\" completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing led by Huatai Innovation; On August 30, DPU chip developer Nebula Zhilian announced the completion of hundreds of millions of yuan in angel round financing, led by Hillhouse Venture Capital, with CDH VGC and Walden International China Fund participating in the investment; At the beginning of September, IDG Capital launched the \"Yunmai Xinlian\" angel round financing project.</p><p>\"DPU may become the third computing power chip after CPU and GPU, but from a structural point of view, DPU will be more heterogeneous and more dedicated.\" Yan Guihai said in an interview with Titanium Media App and others that DPU The background is the demand for computing delay, data security, and resource virtualization brought about by the end-edge-cloud integration trend caused by the data explosion in the intelligent era. The CPU is overwhelmed by these non-business loads, and an ideal object is urgently needed to share these computational loads.</p><p><b>Toubao Research Institute predicts that China's DPU market size is expected to reach US $3.74 billion in 2025. The global DPU market size is expected to reach US $13.57 billion in 2025.</b>At the same time, the report also pointed out that data circulation is the largest application market of DPU, among which bare metal services have a rigid demand for DPU. The application of DPU in the telecom market is mainly in edge computing scenarios, with a penetration rate of less than 5%. DPUs for the field of intelligent driving are still in the exploratory stage, and it is expected that DPUs will be deployed in the field of intelligent driving in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170c585dab44018726df81a32c63d62\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>China's DPU market size, forecast from 2020 to 2025, source: Toubao Research Institute</p><p>Yan Guihai pointed out that the performance of CPU increased from 30% per year 5-10 years ago to less than 3% per year three years ago. The network bandwidth still increases by about 35% every year.</p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>For example, the challenge encountered by the company at that time was that the compliance inspection of transaction orders was too slow and the transaction efficiency needed to be improved. Therefore, Zhongke Yushu, Zhongtai Securities and Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Co., Ltd. jointly developed a set of extremely fast risk control system solutions to speed up this process. Zhongke Yushu has successively developed multiple sets of products and solutions such as ultra-low latency smart network cards and data computing accelerator cards, mainly for high bandwidth, low latency, data-intensive and other scenarios. The company has achieved quarterly revenue of tens of millions this year. Zhongke Yushu's next-generation DPU chip is expected to be designed by the end of 2021 and is expected to process up to 200G network bandwidth data.</p><p><b>However, although the DPU market is hot, the concept is newer, there are more unknowns, and the investment risk will be greater.</b></p><p>Lu Sheng, CEO of Xinqiyuan, pointed out that the current barriers to the DPU segmentation track are still relatively high. In addition to technical barriers, there are also market barriers, which require customers to continuously iterate, especially in conjunction with the continuous upgrade of open source software to adapt to customers. Rapidly changing software and hardware environment. Therefore, before investing, VC (venture capital) must recognize the track and have enough patience. He emphasized that investors need to constantly observe the market and adjust their judgments, and no one can predict the future development prospects of DPU now.</p><p>Some media also believe that when Nvidia enters the newly opened CPU and DPU battlefield, it may be good for Chinese GPU manufacturers, especially when Nvidia still spends a lot of energy on the US $40 billion acquisition of British chip designer Arm. For GPU companies, it may be an opportunity to catch up.</p><p>As Zhang Gaonan told Titanium Media App, \"Logically speaking, things with low thresholds are usually not scarce. (Chip semiconductor track) Some things are difficult and require long-term investment. Although they are high-risk, but someone has to do it. This is a long-term investment that is really beneficial to the country. In fact, investment should be encouraged. Otherwise, if no one does these difficult things that require long-term investment, you will never get up to the next level.\"</p><p>Zhang Gaonan emphasized that although venture capital must pursue returns, he believes that when the entire capital allocation is reasonable, taking part of the start-ups that invest in the semiconductor track not only has strong social significance, but also some kind of long-term value investment. important manifestation.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166195813","content_text":"英伟达CEO黄仁勋（图片来源：Nvidia官网）\n“我即将展示的产品，融合了新的GPU加速计算能力，拥有Mellanox高性能网络，补足我们最后一块拼图的产品是——全球首款专为TB级数据中心加速计算而设计的CPU处理器，它的秘密代号是Grace。”\n这是2021年4月英伟达（NVIDIA）CEO黄仁勋在GTC峰会演讲中的一段话。然而，让人意想不到的是，直到8月12日英伟达自曝后人们才知道，这段不足100字、14秒的演讲内容竟然不是黄仁勋本人出镜，而是使用了合成的“数字替身”，即利用英伟达GPU处理器与Omniverse软件平台共同形成的“虚拟黄仁勋”形象。\n这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。\n自1993年成立至今，在黄仁勋的带领下，英伟达成功创造且引领了GPU（图形处理器）芯片这一类别，产品覆盖整个PC设备GPU至服务器GPU市场。过去五年内，英伟达市值从310亿美元增长到5050亿美元，跻身成为全球第七大半导体供应商，是人工智能（AI）芯片领域炙手可热的明星企业。\n与此同时，在英伟达市值超过英特尔之后，国内半导体市场看到了GPU、AI芯片赛道更大的市场机会，景嘉微、天数智芯、登临科技、壁仞科技、燧原科技、寒武纪、沐曦集成电路等企业均在通用处理器这一赛道中集聚。\n近两年，国内半导体产业发生着转变。由于华为海思、中芯国际等企业受美方“实体清单”影响，以及全球芯片短缺引发的连锁反应，使得中国企业愈加难采购到美国半导体产品，对于“国产替代”需求愈加强烈。\n2020年6月29日，由于美国《出口管理条例》再升级，实体清单企业成员在不断调整，英特尔“临时性暂停”对浪潮集团的芯片供货。\n尽管随后在7月3日，浪潮方面宣布英特尔已恢复对其供货，但一家是全球最大的PC、云服务x86架构芯片供应商，另一方是中国最大的服务器厂商，两家公司之间的临时断供危机，为整个中国云计算、半导体行业提了一个醒：随着算力需求越来越强烈，中国需要大规模生产全面自主可控的国产GPU、服务器芯片产品。从而凸显了“国产替代”正成为中国半导体行业发展的最大驱动力。\n另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。根据IC Insight的统计显示，2020年全球半导体市场规模为3957亿美元，其中，中国大陆市场规模是434亿美元，为全球最大市场，占全球比例达到36.24%。然而，总部位于中国大陆的半导体公司2020年总产值仅为83亿美元，仅占市场规模的5.9%。\n偌大的蛋糕，究竟谁能切下一角？半导体产业何时才能造出“中国英伟达”？\n错失黄金时代\nGPU图形处理器又被称为显示芯片、视觉处理器，最初于1999年由英伟达提出，是个人电脑、工作站、游戏主机以及移动设备（智能手机、平板电脑、VR设备）上专门运行绘图运算的微处理器。\n随着GPU的并行计算优势被逐步挖掘，GPU的应用领域从图形处理扩展到高性能计算，逐步成为Al计算最成熟、应用最广泛的通用型芯片。2020年6月，英伟达推出基于安培（Ampere）架构的A100 Tensor Core GPU，成为全球性能最强的AI芯片。\n以应用终端角度分类，GPU可分为PC端GPU、服务器GPU和移动端GPU，对应三种架构，即与专用电路板及组件组成的独立显卡，共享集成显卡，以及移动端GPU与其他芯片或模块一起封装成高集成度的SoC——应用于手机、汽车电子、AI在内的多个应用场景。\n自从AMD在2006年收购加拿大GPU厂商ATI之后，目前，在PC及服务器GPU领域，全球GPU市场呈现“美国芯片三巨头”——英特尔、AMD和英伟达垄断的局面。集成GPU市场英特尔优势明显，独立GPU市场英伟达和AMD两强割据。\n根据研究机构Jon Peddie Research的数据显示，2021年第一季度，全球PC端GPU市场中，英特尔（Intel）以68%市场份额位居榜首，AMD和英伟达分别为17%和14%，三家共计份额接近100%；全球独立GPU领域中，英伟达是数据中心GPU市场领导者，占据81%的市场份额，拥有领先优势，AMD则以占比19%位居第二。\n仅2019年，英伟达凭借V100系列等产品，占据了中国AI训练芯片市场90%份额，牢牢掌握着中国这一庞大的AI芯片销售市场。\n英伟达能持续作为“芯片霸主”地位的核心原因之一在于其“轻设计模式”。英伟达不做芯片制造和封装，交由台积电代工完成，自身享受7nm等先进制程工艺技术红利。根据财报显示，2016年至2021年期间，英伟达收入增长了233%，营业利润翻了一番，达到45亿美元。在截至今年5月的三个月内，销售额同比猛增84%，毛利率则达到了64%。\n事实上，中国很早就进入了GPU芯片设计领域，但结果并不如意。\n从20世纪70年代开始，中国开始引进半导体与集成电路技术和生产线。但结果却是陷入了“代代引进、代代落后”的恶性循环，加上“汉芯一号”假芯片事件给社会带来的不良影响，让中国的“自主处理器”遭受严重挫败，以及中国积极推动WTO全球化等因素，从而错失了全球半导体产业发展的黄金时期，下游企业只能“造不如买”。\n到2000年，以国家“18号文件”出台为标志，中国半导体才逐渐形成设计、制造、封装测试“三业分离”的产业组织形态，引进以“中芯国际”为代表的一批芯片制造（Foundry）企业在华建设、投产，技术水平也因此得到快速提升。\n目前，景嘉微、天数智芯、登临科技、壁仞科技、燧原科技、寒武纪、沐曦集成电路等企业均在通用处理器这一赛道中集聚。\n2014年，以军机图形显示控制模块起家的“景嘉微”（300474.SH）成功研制出军用GPU芯片JM5400，随后在2018年成功研发出28nm制程工艺的第二代GPU芯片JM7200。景嘉微从军用定制走向通用GPU，成为全球少数、国内唯一实现独立GPU商用量产的公司。\n除景嘉微外，2021年3月天数智芯发布了国内首颗7纳米工艺制造的GPGPU（通用图形处理器），即去掉了传统GPU 30%的图形渲染部分，只为处理人工智能（AI）应用而生；燧原科技则在今年6月发布了迄今中国最大的AI计算芯片“邃思2.0”AI芯片、基于邃思2.0的“云燧T20”训练加速卡和“云燧T21”训练OAM模组。\n但值得注意的是，景嘉微研发的JM7200芯片，性能只相当于2012年英伟达GTX 640水平，难以满足企业客户的应用需求。即便燧原科技的“邃思2.0”AI芯片，也仅和英伟达的A100达成平手，Benchmark测试的6个项目中有2项大幅超越了英伟达A100的性能表现。（详见钛媒体App前文：《燧原科技发布中国最大的AI计算芯片，加速推进三大业务方向落地》）\n\n背后的原因，主要由于中国半导体产业起步晚，芯片的技术门槛高、成本弹性大、产业高度集中，使得中国GPU芯片企业的整体研发投入、技术、人才都滞后于国外，从而在产品性能和技术上依然和芯片巨头有差距，下游企业依然难以脱离“美国芯片三巨头”的境地。\n以研发投入为例，2011年至2020年的十年间，景嘉微的研发投入费用总额为人民币6.27亿元，而英伟达2020年这一年的研发投入就达到39.24亿美元，约合人民币253.23亿元，十年间英伟达总计投入超过1200亿元人民币，两者相差超190倍。\n在人才方面，截至2021年上半年，英伟达员工人数高达18975人，景嘉微总员工人数为1174人，远低于AMD在上海研发中心的2000名员工。\n“AI芯片、GPU芯片市场比较特殊，跟传统的专用处理器不一样，技术十分复杂。它需要大量的数据，需要和特定的算法结合，才能够付诸市场运用。”新思科技中国副总经理谢仲辉在今年4月接受钛媒体App独家专访时表示，如果企业想把首颗AI芯片做扎实，通常需要两三年以上。\n在他看来，芯片半导体本身是一个投入大、周期长、见效慢的行业，技术完全国产化需要长期持续的资金、人才和技术积累，很难用“砸金钱见回报”这种互联网思维来处理。\n此外，结合CUDA技术的软硬件生态，也是国内芯片企业与英伟达形成较大差距的另一重要原因。\n2006年，英伟达就发布了并行计算平台CUDA，其中包含一系列开发工具，只有安装使用这个平台才能够进行复杂的并行计算，任何人只要拥有一台配有英伟达GPU的笔记本电脑，就可以利用CUDA可以进行科学、便捷编程计算，比如深度学习、AI算法等，开发相关软件。过去十多年，英伟达坚持不懈地推广CUDA，使更多政企级类型软件都基于该平台开发，将英伟达自研GPU硬件与CUDA软件相结合，高效实现应用落地。\n相比之下，目前国内却没有一个类似CUDA和英伟达硬件深度绑定的系列平台，技术壁垒差距十分明显。大部分国产GPU厂商均采取兼容CUDA开源框架的策略，如天数智芯、登临等，准备在此基础上培育自己的软件生态。\n“短期来看，国产GPU兼容CUDA更容易发展，毕竟写算子是人力密集型行业，用户迁移的话是需要100%迁移、整套代码都要在你的片上跑，如果代码量很小，需要的算子不那么多，难度就比较低。但是长期来看，还是要摆脱兼容思路，发展自有的核心技术。”芯片行业内人士表示，选择兼容主要是确保已有软件依然可用，未来会不断改进自家平台，使其更加匹配自己的芯片，从而吸引开发者迁移。\n但也有企业选择不兼容CUDA生态，比如同时做AI训练和推理芯片的燧原科技，今年全面升级了其“驭算TopsRider”软件平台以及全新的“云燧集群”，希望能拥有生态主导权。\n总结来看，对标英伟达的这些国内芯片企业依然处在发展的初级阶段，AI芯片技术的产业化、市场化能力较弱，没有产生实际的大规模使用，距离超越或取代“中国英伟达”仍然有很长的路要走。\n中科驭数CEO鄢贵海在接受钛媒体App采访时表示，虽然目前中国需求侧虽然还是全球最大的单一市场，增速也名列前茅，“需求侧”还是很强劲的，但在高端芯片方面无论是设计还是制造还有不小差距，“供给侧”不够强大。他指出，供给侧的优劣不仅取决于一家企业，而是全产业链能力。短期内要想打造出这样大体量和全面引领性的企业还是不太现实的。\n中科驭数成立于2018年，是一家专用计算架构研发商，孵化自中科院计算所的计算机体系结构国家重点实验室，如今公司估值已超10亿元。今年7月27日，中科驭数完成数亿元A轮融资，由华泰创新领投，灵均投资以及老股东国新思创跟投。\n高瓴合伙人、高瓴创投软件与硬科技负责人黄立明在接受钛媒体App的独家专访时表示，虽然GPU市场前景广阔，但中国创业公司很难直接做成“英伟达”。除了技术难度外，还要结合很强的应用来做——涉及到软件系统软件生态，这对创业公司来说要求是极高的。\n高瓴于2020年2月推出独立VC品牌高瓴创投，此后其对芯片半导体领域进行投资入局，其中包括半导体IP企业芯耀辉、EDA厂商芯华章，GPU平台壁仞科技、DPU公司星云智联，加上碳化硅方面的天科合达、光芯片领域的敏芯半导体、以及手机基带星思半导体等。\n黄立明强调，能在这个方向跑出来的公司，无论海外还是国内，高瓴判断最终都不会有很多。\n风口已至\n“我们现在先不纠结于怎么去取代英伟达，路都是一步一步走的。我觉得首先中国得有国产AI芯片、通用GPU、FPGA等底层算力。只要国内有市场需求，我们一定有很多机会。”华映资本主管合伙人章高男对钛媒体App表示，国内半导体产业风口已至，中国现在切入GPU市场是“天时、地利、人和”皆备，尤其半导体和下一代AI技术都是中国必须突围的领域。\n章高男举了一个例子，金山办公产品虽然逊于微软Office套件，但市场给出1100多亿元市值，背后重要原因之一是，中国必须得有国产office，同样道理也适用于国产的GPU市场。\n华映资本是国内最早布局移动互联网和文化产业的私募股权基金之一，近几年To B领域也成为华映资本重点关注的投资领域。目前华映资本在To B领域投资的30余个项目，投资总额超7亿元生态，由技术型投资人章高男负责搭建。在数据中台及底层算力相关领域，华映资本投资布局了壁仞科技、天云大数据，中科海微等项目。\n实际上，作为横跨视觉计算和AI计算的通用平台，GPU拥有巨大的市场空间。据东吴证券测算，预计到2027年，GPU领域国产替代的市场空间规模超过341亿美元。除了既有的游戏市场，在工业、医疗、军事航天等方向都有进一步的发挥空间。\n今年3月，原商汤科技总裁张文联合创立的通用智能芯片设计商“壁仞科技”完成了B轮融资。2019年9月成立以来，公司总融资额超47亿元人民币，投资方包括高瓴创投、华映资本、中国平安、招商局资本、BAI资本、国盛集团国改基金等，估值已超过100亿元，成长半导体行业势头最为迅猛的“独角兽”企业之一。\n除壁仞外，沐曦集成电路、摩尔线程等入局GPU领域的企业也都完成了融资。\n8月25日，GPU厂商沐曦集成电路宣布完成10亿元人民币的A轮融资，创始人陈维良、杨建等均来自美国芯片巨头AMD，投资方包括中国国有企业结构调整基金股份有限公司、中国互联网投资基金、经纬中国、和利资本、红杉中国、光速中国、国创中鼎、智慧互联产业基金、上海科创基金、联想创投等；而2020年成立的摩尔线程，宣称100天内就完成了两轮数十亿元融资，团队成员主要来自英伟达，投资方包括深创投、红杉资本中国基金、招商局创投、字节跳动、小马智行、五源资本等。\n不过，一个有趣的现象是，壁仞、沐曦、摩尔线程上述三家初创企业是名副其实的“PPT融资造芯”，融资时无一家完成首颗芯片的流片（流水线试生产）。\n为何市场投资人愿意对此敞开钱包？数位投资人在接受钛媒体App采访时表示，这些项目能够获得大量资本支持，原因都为投资早期，主要看的还是团队、赛道两部分：AI芯片赛道风口已至，高管团队也均出自“美国芯片三巨头”。\n“我觉得需要给这些企业机会和耐心，不可能500个人都在写PPT。制造芯片是一个5年到10年的事情，我们愿意去投的原因，并非是投机或者是忽悠。我认为，投半导体赛道本身风险就高，需要做好长周期的打算，需要有足够强的风险承担能力，这和投资互联网的模式创新完全不一样。”上述投资人对钛媒体App表示。\n但也有半导体行业投资人指出，上述投资项目本质上还是希望市值撑高，有更高的回报率，尤其“芯片热”环境下，风投机构需要不断在中早期寻找这些GPU、AI芯片企业标的，希望从中赌得一份更高的回报。\n此外，在这一波GPU创业浪潮中，创始团队师出“美国芯片三巨头”。例如，天数智芯首席科学家郑金山曾任AMD首席技术专家；沐曦的创始团队主要来自AMD，CEO陈维良曾在AMD担任图形研发高级总监，CTO杨建曾任AMD Fellow（院士）；壁仞科技最新上任的联席CEO李新荣，曾任AMD全球副总裁，壁仞科技高级副总裁陈文中也曾在AMD任职。\n对此，章高男表示，AMD是GPU领域排名前二的芯片巨头，关于GPU核心研发都在上海，而图形渲染的研发是在美国，企业可以去找AMD和英伟达两家公司高管去沟通，而最终选择的人肯定是半导体行业内的佼佼者。\n鄢贵海认为，在细分新兴赛道，凭借需求侧的应用“势能”，中国芯片企业集中优势兵力，立足服务本土企业，突出开发的敏捷性，是有机会在产品定义、方案迭代周期上超越“英伟达”这些芯片巨头。他预计，10年内会出现一批技术领先的国产GPU、DPU企业。\n“芯片产业五个环节：设计、制造、封测、材料、EDA五个环节中，与应用最相关的是设计，我们最大的优势又在于应用，所以非常有机会在“设计”这一环节取得突破，然后以点带面，逐步扩大胜利版图。所谓“弯道超车”还是追赶策略，切入面向未来的新赛道并且全力加速才更有可能占据新的战略制高点。希望能在10年内能出现一批技术领先、产品扎实而且富有战略意识的企业。”鄢贵海对钛媒体App表示。\n壁仞科技创始人张文表示，对芯片公司的能力要求从产品级提升到系统级和生态级。时间上不超过5年，中国在AI芯片设计领域赶上甚至领先国际水准。他强调，超越英伟达，需要重新定义一个产品，以及重新定义一个市场。\n百亿DPU芯片市场“爆火”\n在黄仁勋看来，负责在数据中心传输和处理数据的数据处理单元（DPU），正与CPU、GPU共同组成“未来计算的三大支柱”。当中国芯片企业发力GPU时，英伟达则把目光放在了CPU、DPU这两个新市场中。\n2020年9月，英伟达宣布拟以400亿美元，从日本软件集团处收购英国芯片设计商Arm，预计写下半导体行业最大的并购案。但这笔交易存有争议，目前还等待欧盟、英国、美国和中国等政府的批准。但2021年4月，英伟达则宣布进军数据中心CPU市场，发布Grace CPU处理器，也就是本文开头黄仁勋所讲的那一段话。（详见钛媒体App前文：《英国政府出手干预，英伟达400亿美元并购Arm交易生变》）\nCPU和GPU之外，英伟达还在布局DPU。2019年，英伟达宣布以69亿美元全现金的形式收购以色列网络芯片商迈络思（Mellanox），并最终将其拿下。而这笔英伟达有史以来规模最大的收购，黄仁勋最看重的就是迈络思在数据中心技术等方面独步天下的能力。2020年10月，英伟达首次推出了DPU — NVIDIA BlueField系列数据处理器。\n究其根本，一方面DPU更灵活安全，更重要的是，DPU可以解放CPU的算力，释放服务器的负载，并凭借低功耗显著降低综合成本，甚至还可以改善AI和机器学习应用的性能。\n据IDC统计，全球算力的需求每3.5个月就会翻一倍，远远超过了当前算力的增长速度。在此驱动下，全球计算、存储和网络基础设施也在发生根本转变：一些数据量过大的工作负载，过多占用CPU资源，与之协同作战的各种“X”PU芯片便应运而生，GPU、FPGA等芯片之外，DPU就是下一个“X”PU。\n业内人士就此做了一个形象的比喻，网络就像造马路，以前1G 10G时代马路已经不够宽了，车子越来越多，为了平衡压力，通过增加红绿灯和投入更多的交警来更高的协调资源，这样已经让原来的效率提高很多，但是仍然不够。必须第一扩大马路，这就是带宽增加，但是马路从2道变为4道，仅仅依靠红绿灯和有限的交警还是会堵塞，但是我们不能无限增加交警，这就需要马路能更加智能，帮助解决拥堵。\n章高男指出，大量的网络管理在CPU里面，占据了容器能力，而DPU则是将服务器智能提供空间能力，大量虚拟化空间可以提高算力需求。\n随着2020年，DPU的名声超出了竞争对手英特尔所推出的基础设施处理器(IPU)和SmartNIC，也让每个对数据中心业务虎视眈眈的企业都要在这个领域分一杯羹。DPU成为了各大芯片巨头、初创公司争相研发的新赛道，国产DPU现在几乎处在百花齐放的状态，红杉、高瓴创投、鼎晖、软银中国都开始入场。\n今年4月，天眼查数据显示，国产DPU芯片供应商“云豹智能”完成腾讯投资、红杉资本、耀途资本等联合的天使轮融资；5月末，芯启源完成数亿元Pre-A轮融资，投资方包括软银中国、浦东科创集团等；7月27日，DPU芯片研发商“中科驭数”完成华泰创新领投的数亿元A轮融资；8月30日，DPU芯片研发商星云智联宣布完成了数亿元天使轮融资，由高瓴创投领投，鼎晖VGC、华登国际中国基金参与跟投；9月初，IDG资本豪掷“云脉芯联”天使轮融资项目。\n“DPU有可能成为继CPU和GPU之后的第三颗算力芯片，但从结构上来看，DPU会更异构、也更专用。”鄢贵海在接受钛媒体App等采访时表示，DPU产生的背景是智能时代数据爆发导致的端-边-云一体化趋势带来的对计算延迟、数据安全、资源虚拟化需求。CPU对这些非业务性负载已不堪重负，迫切需要一个理想的对象来分担这些计算负载。\n头豹研究院则预测，中国DPU市场规模预计将在2025年达到37.4亿美元。全球DPU市场规模2025年预计将达到135.7亿美元。同时报告也指出，数据流通是DPU最大的应用市场，其中裸金属服务其对DPU存在刚需。DPU在电信市场的应用主要为边缘计算场景，渗透率不足5%。针对智能驾驶领域的DPU仍在探索阶段，预计在2023年DPU才有望布局在智能驾驶领域。\n中国DPU市场规模，2020-2025年预测，来源：头豹研究院\n鄢贵海指出，CPU的性能从5-10年前每年30%的增幅，到三年前大概只有每年不到3%的性能增幅。而网络带宽每年依旧还有35%左右的增长。\n以中泰证券为例，当时该公司遇到的挑战是，交易报单合规检查太慢，需要提高交易效率。于是，中科驭数与中泰证券、上交所技术有限责任公司联合研发了一套极速风控系统解决方案，来加速这一流程。中科驭数相继研发了超低时延智能网卡、数据计算加速卡等多套产品和解决方案，主要面向高带宽、低时延、数据密集型等场景。该公司今年已经实现千万级别的季度营收。中科驭数的下一代DPU芯片预计将于2021年底完成设计，预计可处理高达200G网络带宽数据。\n不过，DPU市场虽然火爆，但概念较新，未知更多，投资风险也会更大。\n芯启源CEO卢笙指出，目前DPU细分赛道的壁垒还是相对较高的，除了技术壁垒之外，还有市场的壁垒，需要客户不断迭代，尤其是配合开源软件不断升级去适配客户快速变化的软硬件环境。因此VC（风险投资）在投资之前，一定要先认可赛道，且有足够的耐心。他强调，投资人需要对市场进行不断地观察并调整判断，现在谁也无法预料未来DPU发展前景。\n也有媒体认为，当英伟达进入新开辟的CPU和DPU战场，对中国的GPU厂商或许是个利好，尤其英伟达依然花大量精力放在400亿美元收购英国芯片设计商Arm公司的并购交易上，这对新创GPU企业而言，可能是个追赶的时机。\n正如章高男对钛媒体App所说，“从逻辑上讲，门槛不高的事情通常稀缺性都不高。（芯片半导体赛道）有些事情是很难的，需要长时间投入，虽然是高风险，但总归得有人去做。这是真正对国家有利的长远投入，其实应该鼓励投资。否则的话，这些需要长时间投入的难事，谁都不去做，你永远上不了台阶。”\n章高男强调，虽然风险投资肯定要追求回报，但他认为，在整个资金分配合理情况下，拿出一部分投资半导体赛道的初创企业，不仅有极强的社会意义，更是某种长期价值投资的重要体现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889800809,"gmtCreate":1631122579301,"gmtModify":1676530474613,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889800809","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple indicators in the United States alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834684230,"gmtCreate":1629797562520,"gmtModify":1676530134416,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834684230","repostId":"1140946559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140946559","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1629785482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140946559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street optimists: The peak of the U.S. epidemic is approaching, and it is an opportunity to restart trading at the bottom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140946559","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。\n\n美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初","content":"<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets, believes that the new wave of the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the fourth quarter, and investors should start buying stocks that have fallen sharply before in August instead of waiting until October. American optimists believe that as the number of cases in areas where the initial Delta variant broke out in the United States declines, the number of new cases in other parts of the country will also be effectively controlled in the near future.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>Statistics show that the United States faced a new round of epidemic outbreak at the end of June, and in recent days, the average daily number of new cases in the United States has been close to 150,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7a7969baf4d258fded3fd6a80f2275\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Stocks of some companies with offline businesses have been sold off heavily amid concerns about COVID-19 pandemic. However, Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley, holds the opposite opinion. He believes that this is a good time to buy bottoms.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Slimmon told his clients that it is necessary to prepare for the upcoming economic recovery:</p><p>Every year there are all kinds of economic problems that will eventually ride out. Looking ahead, people will become more optimistic. This bodes well for stocks that have been sold off on COVID-19 pandemic's comeback. Interest rates could bottom out in the coming months and recover in the fourth quarter. Slimmon believes that trading opportunities are concentrated on the stocks that have fallen the most in the past period, namely cyclical stocks, energy stocks, stocks that have resumed trading.</p><p>Based on the above views, Slimmon focuses on stocks that have fallen 20% or even 30% from their all-time peaks earlier this year. He has bought large stakes in casinos, cruise ships, restaurant and theater companies, as well as retail real estate investment trusts.</p><p>This view runs counter to recent market sentiment, and most investors prefer defensive investment strategies. Additionally, growth stocks (such as tech stocks that outperformed the broader market index during a COVID-19 pandemic) have outperformed their lower-value peers for 3 months in a row, while small-cap stocks have fallen about 60% from their all-time highs in mid-March.</p><p>However, he also pointed out that the market is forward-looking and investors should not continue to chase stocks such as technology stocks that are near record highs. \" I am optimistic that the COVID-19 pandemic will soon pass and investors should start buying these stocks in August instead of waiting until October, \"Slimmon said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street optimists: The peak of the U.S. epidemic is approaching, and it is an opportunity to restart trading at the bottom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street optimists: The peak of the U.S. epidemic is approaching, and it is an opportunity to restart trading at the bottom\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-24 14:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets, believes that the new wave of the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the fourth quarter, and investors should start buying stocks that have fallen sharply before in August instead of waiting until October. American optimists believe that as the number of cases in areas where the initial Delta variant broke out in the United States declines, the number of new cases in other parts of the country will also be effectively controlled in the near future.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>Statistics show that the United States faced a new round of epidemic outbreak at the end of June, and in recent days, the average daily number of new cases in the United States has been close to 150,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7a7969baf4d258fded3fd6a80f2275\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Stocks of some companies with offline businesses have been sold off heavily amid concerns about COVID-19 pandemic. However, Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley, holds the opposite opinion. He believes that this is a good time to buy bottoms.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Slimmon told his clients that it is necessary to prepare for the upcoming economic recovery:</p><p>Every year there are all kinds of economic problems that will eventually ride out. Looking ahead, people will become more optimistic. This bodes well for stocks that have been sold off on COVID-19 pandemic's comeback. Interest rates could bottom out in the coming months and recover in the fourth quarter. Slimmon believes that trading opportunities are concentrated on the stocks that have fallen the most in the past period, namely cyclical stocks, energy stocks, stocks that have resumed trading.</p><p>Based on the above views, Slimmon focuses on stocks that have fallen 20% or even 30% from their all-time peaks earlier this year. He has bought large stakes in casinos, cruise ships, restaurant and theater companies, as well as retail real estate investment trusts.</p><p>This view runs counter to recent market sentiment, and most investors prefer defensive investment strategies. Additionally, growth stocks (such as tech stocks that outperformed the broader market index during a COVID-19 pandemic) have outperformed their lower-value peers for 3 months in a row, while small-cap stocks have fallen about 60% from their all-time highs in mid-March.</p><p>However, he also pointed out that the market is forward-looking and investors should not continue to chase stocks such as technology stocks that are near record highs. \" I am optimistic that the COVID-19 pandemic will soon pass and investors should start buying these stocks in August instead of waiting until October, \"Slimmon said.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140946559","content_text":"在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。\n\n美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初的Delta变异株爆发地区的病例数下降，该国其他地区的新增病例数也将在不久后得到有效控制。\n据纽约时报统计数据，6月底美国面临了新一轮疫情的爆发，而近日以来，美国的平均每日新增病例数已接近15万例。\n\n出于对新冠疫情的担忧，一些线下业务公司的股票遭到大举抛售。然而在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon却持相反的意见，他认为此时正是抄底的好时候。\n据彭博，Slimmon向他的客户表示，需要为即将到来的经济复苏做好准备：\n\n 每年都会出现各式各样的经济问题，最终都会安然度过。展望未来，人们会变得更加乐观。对于因新冠疫情卷土重来而遭抛售的股票来说，这是个好兆头。利率可能在未来几个月触底，并在第四季度恢复。\n\nSlimmon认为，交易机会集中在过去一段时间以来跌幅最大的股票上，即周期性股票、能源股票、重新复牌的股票。\n基于上述观点，Slimmon关注的是较今年早些时候的历史峰值下跌了20%甚至30%的股票，他大笔购入了赌场、游轮、餐厅和剧院公司的股份，以及零售房地产投资信托基金。\n这一看法与近期的市场情绪背道而驰，大部分的投资者偏爱防守型投资策略。此外，成长股（例如在新冠疫情期间表现优于大盘指数的科技股）已经连续3个月跑赢了价值较低的同类股票，而小盘股已从3月中旬的历史高位下跌了约60%。\n不过他也指出，市场具有前瞻性，投资者不应继续追逐科技股等接近创纪录高位的股票。”我很乐观，新冠疫情很快将会过去，投资者应该在8月就开始买入这些股票，而不是等到10月”，Slimmon称。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835240012,"gmtCreate":1629723743636,"gmtModify":1676530111553,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835240012","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.</p><p>Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.</p><p>After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.</p><p>Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>First of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.</p><p>The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.</p><p>Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?</p><p>By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.</p><p>The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.</p><p>--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.</p><p>Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.</p><p>After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.</p><p>Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>First of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.</p><p>The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.</p><p>Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?</p><p>By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.</p><p>The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.</p><p>--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835257533,"gmtCreate":1629723694922,"gmtModify":1676530111545,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835257533","repostId":"1145459282","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832049713,"gmtCreate":1629548892632,"gmtModify":1676530069184,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"555","listText":"555","text":"555","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832049713","repostId":"2161422746","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836973670,"gmtCreate":1629450537690,"gmtModify":1676530045407,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836973670","repostId":"2160071811","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831981160,"gmtCreate":1629279719750,"gmtModify":1676529989266,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg&nbsp;","listText":"Omg&nbsp;","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831981160","repostId":"1147839184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147839184","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1629262210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147839184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 12:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks Markets Still Unpriced","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147839184","media":"Wind万得","summary":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，","content":"<p>The U.S. released retail sales data overnight, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey said in a report that the overnight data did not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>A Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales in May and June were revised upward, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a larger-than-expected decline. Notably, this decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and closures seen earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that U.S. consumers are choosing to stay home and spend less-consistent with last week's UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey) sharp declines. In addition, the survey of individual categories showed that consumer discretionary goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-brick-and-mortar retail stores saw the largest slowdown, perhaps also reflecting the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer Leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Yesterday's earnings report showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production rose in July, mainly driven by an 11.2% increase in automobile and parts manufacturing, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined, reaching its lowest level since July 2020, driven by current sales and expected sales components, although future sales expectations remain unchanged.</p><p>Taken together, Goldman strategists wrote, \"Lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood of the Delta virus mutation dragging on services consumption, our economists may revise their assumptions for growth in the second half of the year, although we still do not expect the Delta variant to have a substantial economic impact on the United States against the backdrop of ample vaccine supplies and relatively loose COVID policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman Sachs but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Worse: Commenting on the retail data, Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer stressed that although she expected a small increase in retail sales in August, \"there are still downside risks\". Non-store retailer spending should rebound, but services spending will weaken-travel spending has retreated significantly, which appears to be consistent with rising Covid cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers expressed concerns about rising cases and high prices in novel coronavirus pneumonia, \"which we've been highlighting for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also noted: \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending pushed real consumer spending we tracked up just 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting that data into a GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy is running slowly in the third quarter\" and now expects growth to be just 4.5% after the retail sales report, down from the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth, said: \"The Delta variant has dampened the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to pay attention to its ripple effects on the economy.\" \"It's going to be a long-term issue and it's going to cause some volatility in the market.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks Markets Still Unpriced</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks Markets Still Unpriced\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 12:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. released retail sales data overnight, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey said in a report that the overnight data did not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>A Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales in May and June were revised upward, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a larger-than-expected decline. Notably, this decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and closures seen earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that U.S. consumers are choosing to stay home and spend less-consistent with last week's UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey) sharp declines. In addition, the survey of individual categories showed that consumer discretionary goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-brick-and-mortar retail stores saw the largest slowdown, perhaps also reflecting the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer Leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Yesterday's earnings report showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production rose in July, mainly driven by an 11.2% increase in automobile and parts manufacturing, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined, reaching its lowest level since July 2020, driven by current sales and expected sales components, although future sales expectations remain unchanged.</p><p>Taken together, Goldman strategists wrote, \"Lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood of the Delta virus mutation dragging on services consumption, our economists may revise their assumptions for growth in the second half of the year, although we still do not expect the Delta variant to have a substantial economic impact on the United States against the backdrop of ample vaccine supplies and relatively loose COVID policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman Sachs but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Worse: Commenting on the retail data, Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer stressed that although she expected a small increase in retail sales in August, \"there are still downside risks\". Non-store retailer spending should rebound, but services spending will weaken-travel spending has retreated significantly, which appears to be consistent with rising Covid cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers expressed concerns about rising cases and high prices in novel coronavirus pneumonia, \"which we've been highlighting for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also noted: \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending pushed real consumer spending we tracked up just 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting that data into a GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy is running slowly in the third quarter\" and now expects growth to be just 4.5% after the retail sales report, down from the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth, said: \"The Delta variant has dampened the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to pay attention to its ripple effects on the economy.\" \"It's going to be a long-term issue and it's going to cause some volatility in the market.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147839184","content_text":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，但7月份美国零售销售下降了1.1%，降幅超过预期。值得注意的是，这种下降没有伴随疫情早期出现过的出行限制和关闭措施，这表明美国消费者选择呆在家里，减少支出——这与上周密歇根消费者信心调查(UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey)的大幅下降一致。此外，对个别类别的调查显示，非必需消费品(如电子产品和电器)以及非实体零售店的增速放缓幅度最大，这或许也反映出一些失业救济即将到期。消费者领头羊沃尔玛和家得宝昨日公布的财报显示，消费者行为正在放缓。\n在供应方面，7月份工业生产增长，主要受汽车和零部件制造业增长11.2%的推动，同时企业库存也有所增加。受当前销售和预期销售成分的推动，建筑商信心也下降，达到2020年7月以来的最低水平，尽管未来销售预期保持不变。\n综上所述，高盛策略师写道，“7月份低于预期的零售销售和汽车产量，加上Delta病毒变异越来越可能拖累服务消费，我们的经济学家可能会修改对下半年增长的假设，尽管我们仍然预计，在疫苗供应充足和相对宽松的新冠政策的背景下，Delta变种不会对美国产生实质性的经济影响。”\n不仅是高盛，但美国银行的说法更糟：美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔•迈耶(Michelle Meyer)在对零售数据发表评论时强调，尽管她预计8月份零售额会出现小幅增长，但“仍存在下行风险”。非商店零售商的支出应该会反弹，但服务支出将会减弱——旅行支出明显回落，这似乎与新冠病例的增加相一致。与此类似，密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者信心调查在8月初大幅下降，因为消费者对新冠肺炎病例增加和价格高企表示担忧，“我们几个月来一直在强调这一点。”\n迈耶还指出：“在对更高的价格进行调整后，名义支出的疲软使我们在第三季度追踪到的实际消费支出仅增长1.5%，第二季度的实际消费增长12.3%。”将该数据放到GDP的预测模型里，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，目前在零售销售报告发布后经济增速预期仅为 4.5%，低于该银行官方预测的7%。\n\nCIBC Private Wealth 的首席投资官 David Donabedian 表示：“Delta 变体已经打击了普通美国人的信心，因此我们需要关注它对经济的连锁反应。” “这将是一个长期问题，将会导致市场出现一些波动。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839057313,"gmtCreate":1629110261732,"gmtModify":1676529933269,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"omg","listText":"omg","text":"omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839057313","repostId":"2159241181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830939392,"gmtCreate":1628998688116,"gmtModify":1676529907596,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830939392","repostId":"1168954704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897580564,"gmtCreate":1628942238258,"gmtModify":1676529897402,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897580564","repostId":"1121247469","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894786105,"gmtCreate":1628857486107,"gmtModify":1676529876355,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894786105","repostId":"1138393223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138393223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628833966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138393223?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138393223","media":"美港电讯","summary":"摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。","content":"<p>The three major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red across the board on Thursday. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, JPMorgan Chase analyst Marko Kolanovic (Marko Kolanovic) emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta mutant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He believes that,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong Earnings Season, Cautious Investor Holdings, Signs of Delta Receding, and Normalizing Bond-Stock Correlation</b>, we still have reservations about the risk of recent market corrections. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the perspective of investor position distribution</b></p><p>As always, Kolanovic believes that no matter how high the position soars at present, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And, while both major banking institutional brokerage firms show record total exposure to hedge funds, retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds at the moment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that the position level will continue to rise, he said that the current position is still near the average level compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta (expressed in percentiles) for generalized hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and funds targeting volatility (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>Beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the whole market, and separates the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>I have to admit that the increased exposure of these funds this year has definitely helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan points to a more important point that these indicators are close to historical averages-at around 50%, while most revisions historically occurred when these indicators were above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators stay at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not encounter a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>Looking at the risk of soaring U.S. bond yields</b></p><p>So, if an investor's position does not pose a risk, what is a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or related to tapering, inflation, etc.).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the 10-year bond price and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices are up 1% on average, tech stocks are up 4%, and financials are down 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>Over the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, communications) have pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovic believes that such a risk is small, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that the conditions for such an event are: stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries will suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. But given the correlation between the two The correlation has weakened, and the recent performance of the stock and bond markets is very good (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are reporting bright, and U.S. bond yields are on the rise), so the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovic pointed out that investors can hedge their risks by holding bonds and stocks less time, which may trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks to a certain extent, thus further illustrating the risk of a widespread sell-off in the stock market. not big.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta virus</b></p><p>Now that the risk of position adjustment and rising yield (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else will cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor hindering the strength of risky assets in the past few months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish speeches from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should feel reassured that the death rate from the Delta epidemic is low among vaccinated countries, and there is a good chance that this will be the last wave of COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta epidemic. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of patients who begin to develop symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 U.S. states.\"<b>Other potential risks</b></p><p>Well, the positions are average, the tapering risk is under control, and the Delta epidemic is receding. Are there any other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefit from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The ultimate level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these sectors and equivalent traditional sectors.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" are likely to continue to burst, Kolanovic believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next year<b>Geopolitical risks</b>Will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia, Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and political developments in the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, the bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港电讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The three major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red across the board on Thursday. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, JPMorgan Chase analyst Marko Kolanovic (Marko Kolanovic) emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta mutant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He believes that,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong Earnings Season, Cautious Investor Holdings, Signs of Delta Receding, and Normalizing Bond-Stock Correlation</b>, we still have reservations about the risk of recent market corrections. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the perspective of investor position distribution</b></p><p>As always, Kolanovic believes that no matter how high the position soars at present, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And, while both major banking institutional brokerage firms show record total exposure to hedge funds, retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds at the moment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that the position level will continue to rise, he said that the current position is still near the average level compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta (expressed in percentiles) for generalized hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and funds targeting volatility (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>Beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the whole market, and separates the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>I have to admit that the increased exposure of these funds this year has definitely helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan points to a more important point that these indicators are close to historical averages-at around 50%, while most revisions historically occurred when these indicators were above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators stay at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not encounter a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>Looking at the risk of soaring U.S. bond yields</b></p><p>So, if an investor's position does not pose a risk, what is a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or related to tapering, inflation, etc.).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the 10-year bond price and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices are up 1% on average, tech stocks are up 4%, and financials are down 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>Over the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, communications) have pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovic believes that such a risk is small, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that the conditions for such an event are: stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries will suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. But given the correlation between the two The correlation has weakened, and the recent performance of the stock and bond markets is very good (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are reporting bright, and U.S. bond yields are on the rise), so the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovic pointed out that investors can hedge their risks by holding bonds and stocks less time, which may trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks to a certain extent, thus further illustrating the risk of a widespread sell-off in the stock market. not big.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta virus</b></p><p>Now that the risk of position adjustment and rising yield (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else will cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor hindering the strength of risky assets in the past few months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish speeches from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should feel reassured that the death rate from the Delta epidemic is low among vaccinated countries, and there is a good chance that this will be the last wave of COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta epidemic. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of patients who begin to develop symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 U.S. states.\"<b>Other potential risks</b></p><p>Well, the positions are average, the tapering risk is under control, and the Delta epidemic is receding. Are there any other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefit from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The ultimate level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these sectors and equivalent traditional sectors.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" are likely to continue to burst, Kolanovic believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next year<b>Geopolitical risks</b>Will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia, Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and political developments in the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, the bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733\">美港电讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138393223","content_text":"周四美股三大股指收盘全线飘红。道指和标普500指数盘中双双再创新高。医药、软件板块表现强势，新能源相关板块连续第二日回落。\n对此，摩根大通分析师马克•科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）强调，市场夸大了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，价值股将大幅上涨，超过成长股。他认为，美债收益率和周期股可能已经在上周触底，今年剩余时间料将打开上行空间。\n科拉诺维奇表示：\n\n “鉴于\n 强劲的财报季、投资者谨慎的持仓、德尔塔病毒消退的迹象以及债券-股票相关性正常化，我们对近期市场回调风险仍持保留意见。我们尤其看好周期性和通货再膨胀相关的市场板块，并对受益于疫情和低债券收益率的股票持谨慎态度。”\n\n从投资者的仓位分布来看\n科拉诺维奇一如既往地认为，不管仓位目前飙升到多高，平均情况才是最好的参考指标。而且，尽管两家主要银行机构经纪公司均显示对冲基金的总敞口达到创纪录水平，但散户投资者目前显然还是将“所有资金”投入对冲基金。\n\n抛开事实不谈，虽然科拉诺维奇预估仓位水平将持续上升，但他表示，目前的仓位与10年历史相比，仍处在平均水平附近。图1显示了广义对冲基金、股票多/空对冲基金和以波动率为目标的基金（如保险公司、风险平价等）的股票贝塔系数（以百分位数表示）。\n贝塔系数用来量化个别投资工具相对整个市场的波动，将个别风险引起的价格变化和整个市场波动分离开来。\n\n不得不承认的是，今年这些基金增加的敞口肯定对股市有所帮助。然而，摩根大通指出了更重要的一点，这些指标接近历史平均水平——约50%处，而历史上大多数修正发生在这些指标高于80%左右的时候。不过，有时即使这些指标在100%逗留了长达一年的时间，股市也没有遭遇显著的修正。\n这是因为，在这个市场上，广泛的投资者仓位完全无关紧要，只有美联储的政策走向至关重要。\n从美债收益率飙升的风险来看\n那么，如果投资者的仓位不构成风险，什么才是风险呢？按照科拉诺维奇的说法，下一个风险因素是收益率可能急剧上升（或与缩减购债规模、通胀等相关）。下图展示了10年期债券价格与不同股票板块的贝塔系数之间的相关性。\n\n科拉诺维奇写道，在7月份，科技板块的债券贝塔值为+4，而金融板块的贝塔值为-3。换句话说，10年期债券价格平均上涨1%，科技股上涨4%，金融股下跌3%。财报发布后，这种相关性有所减弱，现在所有股票板块都与债券价格呈现典型的负相关性。\n在过去一个月里，纳斯达克板块（如科技、非必需资产、通讯）走弱推动标普500指数债券类股的贝塔指数从第二季度的负区域升至约1。\n这里明显的风险是，在债券抛售期间这种相关性的迅速逆转，可能导致债券和股票双双遭到抛售。这在2018年2月和10月就曾发生过。\n科拉诺维奇认为这样的风险很小，他写道：\n\n “考虑到当前的仓位水平、波动性和其他因素，我们估计，这样的事件发生的条件是：股票和10年期美债在1天内遭受约3%的抛售。但鉴于两者间的相关性已经减弱，且近期股市和债市的表现都很不错（周期性股票抬头、成长型股票财报成绩亮眼以及美债收益率回升），因此债券和股票双双遭到抛售的概率极低。”\n\n科拉诺维奇指出，投资者可以通过减少持有债券和股票的时间来对冲风险，这可能在一定程度上将触发投资者从成长型股票转向价值股，因此更加说明了股市大范围抛售风险不大。\n从德尔塔病毒的风险来看\n既然仓位调整和收益率上升（或者说缩债）的风险能得到有效控制，还有什么因素会引发担忧呢？\n科拉诺维奇表示，过去几个月阻碍风险资产走强的主要因素是德尔塔毒株的传播，而非经济增长见顶或者美联储鹰派发言。科拉诺维奇坚信，尽管病例数量高企，“在接种了疫苗的国家中，德尔塔疫情的死亡率较低，投资者应该感到放心，而且这很有可能是最后一波新冠疫情。”\n\n科拉诺维奇补充道：\n\n “有强烈的迹象表明，美国正在开始逆转德尔塔疫情。一个重要信号是，美国50个州中有40个州的基本传染数（某时刻开始出现症状的患者平均能够感染的人数）正在下降。”\n\n其他潜在风险\n那么，仓位处于平均水平，缩减风险已得到控制，德尔塔疫情正在消退。市场还存在其他风险吗?\n答案是肯定的。在摩根大通量化分析师列出的次级风险中，包括在新冠疫情中受益的资产，如可再生能源和电动汽车、加密货币和创新股。\n虽然这些板块在年初经历了一次重大调整，但摩根大通相信还会有另一轮下跌。最终的调整水平可能由这些行业与同等传统行业之间的估值趋同决定。\n尽管这些“泡沫资产”可能会继续破裂，但科拉诺维奇认为，这也不足以摧毁市场。\n最后，科拉诺维奇预计，明年地缘政治风险将会进一步增加和放大，这些风险将涉及各种相互依存的问题，如美国与俄罗斯、伊朗的地缘政治关系、围绕能源安全的问题，通货膨胀，以及美国自身的政治发展。但只要美联储继续每月向市场注入数十亿美元的流动性，看涨的预期就不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895476976,"gmtCreate":1628770239095,"gmtModify":1676529848211,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895476976","repostId":"2158232300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896741271,"gmtCreate":1628607239093,"gmtModify":1676529796343,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896741271","repostId":"2158420658","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2158420658","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628581980,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2158420658?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-10 15:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"It is reported that Nvidia RTX 3060Ti\\ 3060 has insufficient GPU supply this month and delivery is delayed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158420658","media":"IT之家","summary":"据博板堂，英伟达的内部消息表明，本月的RTX3060Ti以及RTX3060两个系列的GPU可能跳票，预计8月份后半月供应量可能会更加紧缺。据称，英伟达上述两款GPU型号的采购计划目前已无法按照板卡商所...","content":"<p><html><body><div><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.NVDA&imageType=k&token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>According to Bobantang,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a></span><span></span>Insider information shows that this month's RTX 3060Ti and RTX 3060 series of GPUs may be delayed, and it is expected that the supply may be even more scarce in the second half of August.</p><p>It is said that,<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">Nvidia</span>At present, the purchase plans of the above two GPU models can't be delivered according to the orders placed by the board manufacturers. It is determined that the GPU delivery volume in August will be delayed, but there is no accurate information about the specific delay, and the reasons for the delay will not be announced to the public.</p><p>IT House learned that there was previous news that<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">Nvidia</span>The RTX 30 series can arrive in large quantities at the end of July or early August, but at present, many manufacturers have raised the shipping price of the RTX 30 series graphics cards, coupled with small currency encryption<span>Currency</span>The rise of Ethereum and the recovery of Ethereum have led to a shortage of graphics cards.</p><p>(Article source: IT House)</p><p></div></body></html></p>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It is reported that Nvidia RTX 3060Ti\\ 3060 has insufficient GPU supply this month and delivery is delayed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt is reported that Nvidia RTX 3060Ti\\ 3060 has insufficient GPU supply this month and delivery is delayed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IT之家</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-10 15:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.NVDA&imageType=k&token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>According to Bobantang,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a></span><span></span>Insider information shows that this month's RTX 3060Ti and RTX 3060 series of GPUs may be delayed, and it is expected that the supply may be even more scarce in the second half of August.</p><p>It is said that,<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">Nvidia</span>At present, the purchase plans of the above two GPU models can't be delivered according to the orders placed by the board manufacturers. It is determined that the GPU delivery volume in August will be delayed, but there is no accurate information about the specific delay, and the reasons for the delay will not be announced to the public.</p><p>IT House learned that there was previous news that<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">Nvidia</span>The RTX 30 series can arrive in large quantities at the end of July or early August, but at present, many manufacturers have raised the shipping price of the RTX 30 series graphics cards, coupled with small currency encryption<span>Currency</span>The rise of Ethereum and the recovery of Ethereum have led to a shortage of graphics cards.</p><p>(Article source: IT House)</p><p></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202108102039241076.html\">IT之家</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202108102039241076.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158420658","content_text":"据博板堂，英伟达的内部消息表明，本月的 RTX 3060Ti 以及 RTX 3060 两个系列的 GPU 可能跳票，预计 8 月份后半月供应量可能会更加紧缺。\n　　据称，英伟达上述两款 GPU 型号的采购计划目前已无法按照板卡商所下订单进行交货，确定 8 月份的 GPU 交货量将被延期，但具体延时到什么时候还没有准确信息，而且延期的原因也不对外公布。　　IT之家了解到，此前有消息称英伟达 RTX 30 系列可于 7 月底或 8 月初大量到货，但目前来看多个厂商上调了 RTX 30 系列显卡的出货价，再加上小币种加密货币的崛起和以太坊的回温，导致显卡依然紧缺。（文章来源：IT之家）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898580576,"gmtCreate":1628510321395,"gmtModify":1703507281618,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/898580576","repostId":"1140257089","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140257089","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1628471023,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140257089?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-09 09:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Warren Buffett handed in his homework! This investment is the biggest highlight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140257089","media":"券商中国","summary":"“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司8月7日发布2021年第二季度财报。\n财报发布之际，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股票已抹去了2020年的所有下跌，并创下历史新高。该公司的B类股8月上涨了2.7%，今年","content":"<p>\"Stock God\" Buffett's subsidiary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>· Hathaway released its second quarter 2021 financial report on August 7.</p><p>The earnings release comes as Berkshire Hathaway's stock has erased all of its 2020 losses and is hitting a record high. The company's Class B shares rose 2.7% in August, with a cumulative increase of more than 23% this year.</p><p>Among them, the after-tax income of railway business actually increased by 34% in the second quarter, becoming the biggest bright spot. As the largest investment in Buffett's history-the $44 billion acquisition of U.S. railroad system BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) in 2009, the company now estimates it has exceeded $160 billion.</p><p>Clearly, as fiscal stimulus in the United States continues to increase, more and more goods and goods are being shipped across the United States, and economic activity continues to recover from the pandemic, railroads have benefited significantly. However, in terms of insurance underwriting business, operating profit was only US $376 million, a year-on-year decrease of 53.3%. This shows that Berkshire Hathaway's financial business income has continued to decline in recent years.</p><p>Currently, Berkshire Hathaway still holds US $144.1 billion in cash (approximately RMB 934.1 billion), which is little change compared with the record high of US $146.6 billion in the same period last year. From the perspective of holdings, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio has hardly changed. Without a suitable \"elephant\" target, Buffett has launched more Berkshire stock repurchase programs. In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway spent about $6 billion on share repurchases, bringing the total amount to $12.6 billion in six months. Since the end of 2019, the total repurchase amount has exceeded US $37 billion (approximately RMB 240 billion).</p><p><b>Net profit increased 6.8% in the second quarter</b></p><p>On August 7, \"Stock God\" Buffett's second-quarter report card was released, and Berkshire Hathaway announced its second-quarter 2021 financial report. The financial report shows that the company's total revenue in the second quarter was US $69.114 billion, an increase of 22% from US $56.840 billion in the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was US $28.094 billion (approximately RMB 180 billion), an increase of 6.8% from US $26.295 billion in the same period in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40af2a62b8d2ae5055e3492adca5fca9\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares earned $18,488 per share, compared with $16,314 in the same period last year; Class B shares earned $12.33 per share, compared with $10.88 in the same period last year.</b></p><p>The financial report shows that the company's operating profit was US $6.686 billion, compared with US $5.513 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; Investment and derivatives profits were US $21.408 billion, compared with US $31.645 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dbc90ec531523f55870e1a7b0e72e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>According to the data disclosed by Berkshire Hathaway, the real top ten heavyweight projects are as follows (5 of them are unlisted, ranked according to the proportion of positions):</p><p>No. 1: 25%, BNSF Railway (unlisted)</p><p>No. 2: 19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL , listed)</p><p>No. 3: 10%, Berkshire Energy (BHE, unlisted)</p><p>No. 4: 7%, GEICO auto insurance (GEICO, unlisted)</p><p>No. 5: 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC, listed)</p><p>No. 6: 3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>(KO, listed)</p><p>No. 7: 3.5%, precision parts (PCP, unlisted)</p><p>8th place: 2.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP, listed)</p><p>9th place: 1.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KHC\">Kraft Heinz</a>(KHC, listed)</p><p>No. 10: 1.6%, Lubrizol (LZ, unlisted)</p><p>Railway business became the biggest bright spot, with a 34% increase in the second quarter</p><p>From the perspective of specific business areas, Berkshire Hathaway's departments with the largest year-on-year growth are railways, utilities and energy departments. Operating income increased from US $1.76 billion a year ago to US $2.26 billion. A year-on-year increase of 27.9%. In particular, after-tax earnings from the rail business increased 34% in the second quarter, reflecting higher overall freight volumes and lower operating costs.</p><p>Berkshire Hathaway's railroad business has become the largest shareholder in BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) since 2007, holding a total of 22.6% of the shares. Then, at the end of 2009, when the U.S. economy was in recession and BNSF's performance declined, Buffett gambled on the future of the U.S. economy and bought BNSF Railroad. On November 3 of that year, Buffett spent another $26.5 billion and a total price of $44 billion to take BNSF private. This move is also the largest investment in Buffett's history. At that time, the acquisition negotiation only took 20 minutes.</p><p>Buffett said, \"I believe this country will get better and think that in the next 10 to 30 years, more people will use this railroad to transport more goods. But this is always a bet on the country's future.\" BNSF operates the largest rail transportation network in North America, mainly transporting coal, industrial goods and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>。 The company has an operating network of 51,500 kilometers and 6,700 locomotives, covering 28 states in the United States and 2 provinces in Canada. It has access to all major ports on the west coast of North America and the Gulf of Mexico, and can also directly connect to most major cities in the western 2/3 of the United States. And has the industry's leading railway trunk line between Southern California and Chicago, as well as the northwest United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The shortest trunk line between District and Chicago.</p><p>BNSF moves more than 5 million containers and trailers annually, making it the world's largest rail multimodal carrier. Among the four large freight companies in the country, BNSF ranks first in freight revenue. Its revenue consists of 35% consumer goods, 27% industrial goods, 21% agricultural products, and 17% coal.</p><p>In fact, after BNSF was privatized by Berkshire Hathaway, it subsequently became the highlight of the company's financial report, contributing more than $3 billion in Dividend to the parent company every year. It is estimated that Berkshire Hathaway's railway business valuation accounts for a quarter of the company's value, and BNSF Railway should have appreciated more than four times since its acquisition in November 2009. Unexpectedly, the stock god has a soft spot for railway stocks, which actually accounts for a quarter of the position.</p><p>In May 2019, at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that BNSF is a good asset for us and will continue to do this business for 100 years. The overall railway business is considered to be competitive with other companies. From the second half of last year to the first half of this year, driven by the fiscal stimulus effect of the United States, U.S. imports soared. U.S. railway yards, ports and warehouses have been packed with goods, and U.S. railway freight rates have increased by 15% year-on-year.</p><p>Similarly, in terms of public utilities, Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE) is a wind power and natural gas company. BHE is one of the world's largest electricity suppliers. Its main business is power generation, transmission, distribution and sales of electricity, and transmission The construction and maintenance of gas pipeline networks and power grid projects, while vigorously developing new energy, have created the two largest in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>Power generation projects.</p><p>BHE was privatized by Berkshire after acquiring 85% of BHE's shares for US $1.7 billion in 2000. Currently, Berkshire owns approximately 91% of BHE's shares and contributes approximately 10% of Berkshire's shares every year. profit. Abel, the successor of the stock god, has been in charge of Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE) for a long time. BHE is currently valued at more than US $50 billion, and its revenue in 2020 will be approximately US $20.9 billion.</p><p>In 2021, in a letter to investors, Buffett stated that BHE (Berkshire Hathaway Energy) will rebuild and expand a grid that transmits most of electricity covering the entire western region, expected to be completed by 2030, when BHE will become a leader in providing cleaner energy.</p><p><b>Insurance underwriting operating profit has shrunk by more than half, and net profit has shrunk for 4 consecutive years</b></p><p>According to Berkshire Hathaway's financial report, the insurance business has declined significantly. Data shows that in terms of insurance and other businesses, premium revenue was US $17.163 billion, sales and service revenue was US $36.743 billion, leasing revenue was US $1.447 billion, and interest, Dividend and other investment revenue was US $1.898 billion. The operating profit of insurance underwriting business was US $376 million, a year-on-year decrease of 53.3%; The operating profit of the insurance investment income business was US $1.219 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%.</p><p>With the announcement of the situation in the first half of this year, the market expects Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business to continue to decline in 2021. Data shows that Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business profits have continued to decline in the past five years. It was approximately $750 million in 2020, $800 million in 2019 and $1.3 billion in 2018.</p><p>In fact, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the largest insurance companies in the world. Buffett first acquired the National Insurance Company (NICO) and the National Fire and Marine Insurance Company in 1967, privatized Geco Insurance in 1996, and acquired General Reinsurance for US $22 billion in 1998. The cumulative premium income increased by 1,472 times, with a compound annual growth rate of 16%. At present, Berkshire has become one of the largest insurance companies in the world. After continuous acquisition and integration, there are currently three major insurance operating entities, namely GEICO, Berkshire Reinsurance (BHRG) and BH Primary, which are involved in auto insurance, reinsurance and special insurance businesses respectively, with a total of 27 insurance subsidiaries.</p><p>According to the relevant data of American insurance in 2020 released by the American Association of Insurance Supervisors in March this year. In 2020, the written premiums of the U.S. property and casualty insurance business totaled approximately US $719.7 billion. At the company level, State Farm, Berkshire Hathaway, Progressive,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFG.AU\">Liberty</a>Mutual and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALL\">Allstate</a>Ranked 1 to 5 in total premium income of property and casualty insurance in 2020. Among them, State Farm achieved premiums of US $66.2 billion, accounting for approximately 9.19% of the market share; Berkshire Hathaway's premiums are $46.1 billion, accounting for approximately 6.39% of the market share.</p><p><b>Holding $144 billion in cash, stock positions remain unmoved</b></p><p>At present, Berkshire Hathaway still holds $144.1 billion in cash (cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments), which is stable compared with the previous quarter. At the end of the first quarter, it was $145.4 billion. In August 2020, cash reserves at that time were US $146.6 billion, reaching a record high.</p><p>Judging from the amount itself, Berkshire Hathaway's cash flow has remained stable for more than a year, continuing to remain above $1,440. Driven by huge amounts of cash, Buffett is still active in stock repurchases. In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway spent about $6 billion on share repurchases, bringing the total amount to $12.6 billion in six months. Bought back a record $24.7 billion of company stock last year. The total amount of buybacks since the end of 2019 has exceeded $37 billion.</p><p>Looking at holdings, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio is little changed, totaling nearly $300 billion. Notably, the company cut more than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>More than 50% holdings to 23.7 million shares, and investment in Merck decreased by 37% to 17.9 million shares.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett handed in his homework! This investment is the biggest highlight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett handed in his homework! This investment is the biggest highlight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-09 09:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>\"Stock God\" Buffett's subsidiary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>· Hathaway released its second quarter 2021 financial report on August 7.</p><p>The earnings release comes as Berkshire Hathaway's stock has erased all of its 2020 losses and is hitting a record high. The company's Class B shares rose 2.7% in August, with a cumulative increase of more than 23% this year.</p><p>Among them, the after-tax income of railway business actually increased by 34% in the second quarter, becoming the biggest bright spot. As the largest investment in Buffett's history-the $44 billion acquisition of U.S. railroad system BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) in 2009, the company now estimates it has exceeded $160 billion.</p><p>Clearly, as fiscal stimulus in the United States continues to increase, more and more goods and goods are being shipped across the United States, and economic activity continues to recover from the pandemic, railroads have benefited significantly. However, in terms of insurance underwriting business, operating profit was only US $376 million, a year-on-year decrease of 53.3%. This shows that Berkshire Hathaway's financial business income has continued to decline in recent years.</p><p>Currently, Berkshire Hathaway still holds US $144.1 billion in cash (approximately RMB 934.1 billion), which is little change compared with the record high of US $146.6 billion in the same period last year. From the perspective of holdings, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio has hardly changed. Without a suitable \"elephant\" target, Buffett has launched more Berkshire stock repurchase programs. In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway spent about $6 billion on share repurchases, bringing the total amount to $12.6 billion in six months. Since the end of 2019, the total repurchase amount has exceeded US $37 billion (approximately RMB 240 billion).</p><p><b>Net profit increased 6.8% in the second quarter</b></p><p>On August 7, \"Stock God\" Buffett's second-quarter report card was released, and Berkshire Hathaway announced its second-quarter 2021 financial report. The financial report shows that the company's total revenue in the second quarter was US $69.114 billion, an increase of 22% from US $56.840 billion in the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was US $28.094 billion (approximately RMB 180 billion), an increase of 6.8% from US $26.295 billion in the same period in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40af2a62b8d2ae5055e3492adca5fca9\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares earned $18,488 per share, compared with $16,314 in the same period last year; Class B shares earned $12.33 per share, compared with $10.88 in the same period last year.</b></p><p>The financial report shows that the company's operating profit was US $6.686 billion, compared with US $5.513 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; Investment and derivatives profits were US $21.408 billion, compared with US $31.645 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dbc90ec531523f55870e1a7b0e72e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>According to the data disclosed by Berkshire Hathaway, the real top ten heavyweight projects are as follows (5 of them are unlisted, ranked according to the proportion of positions):</p><p>No. 1: 25%, BNSF Railway (unlisted)</p><p>No. 2: 19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL , listed)</p><p>No. 3: 10%, Berkshire Energy (BHE, unlisted)</p><p>No. 4: 7%, GEICO auto insurance (GEICO, unlisted)</p><p>No. 5: 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC, listed)</p><p>No. 6: 3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>(KO, listed)</p><p>No. 7: 3.5%, precision parts (PCP, unlisted)</p><p>8th place: 2.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP, listed)</p><p>9th place: 1.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KHC\">Kraft Heinz</a>(KHC, listed)</p><p>No. 10: 1.6%, Lubrizol (LZ, unlisted)</p><p>Railway business became the biggest bright spot, with a 34% increase in the second quarter</p><p>From the perspective of specific business areas, Berkshire Hathaway's departments with the largest year-on-year growth are railways, utilities and energy departments. Operating income increased from US $1.76 billion a year ago to US $2.26 billion. A year-on-year increase of 27.9%. In particular, after-tax earnings from the rail business increased 34% in the second quarter, reflecting higher overall freight volumes and lower operating costs.</p><p>Berkshire Hathaway's railroad business has become the largest shareholder in BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) since 2007, holding a total of 22.6% of the shares. Then, at the end of 2009, when the U.S. economy was in recession and BNSF's performance declined, Buffett gambled on the future of the U.S. economy and bought BNSF Railroad. On November 3 of that year, Buffett spent another $26.5 billion and a total price of $44 billion to take BNSF private. This move is also the largest investment in Buffett's history. At that time, the acquisition negotiation only took 20 minutes.</p><p>Buffett said, \"I believe this country will get better and think that in the next 10 to 30 years, more people will use this railroad to transport more goods. But this is always a bet on the country's future.\" BNSF operates the largest rail transportation network in North America, mainly transporting coal, industrial goods and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>。 The company has an operating network of 51,500 kilometers and 6,700 locomotives, covering 28 states in the United States and 2 provinces in Canada. It has access to all major ports on the west coast of North America and the Gulf of Mexico, and can also directly connect to most major cities in the western 2/3 of the United States. And has the industry's leading railway trunk line between Southern California and Chicago, as well as the northwest United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The shortest trunk line between District and Chicago.</p><p>BNSF moves more than 5 million containers and trailers annually, making it the world's largest rail multimodal carrier. Among the four large freight companies in the country, BNSF ranks first in freight revenue. Its revenue consists of 35% consumer goods, 27% industrial goods, 21% agricultural products, and 17% coal.</p><p>In fact, after BNSF was privatized by Berkshire Hathaway, it subsequently became the highlight of the company's financial report, contributing more than $3 billion in Dividend to the parent company every year. It is estimated that Berkshire Hathaway's railway business valuation accounts for a quarter of the company's value, and BNSF Railway should have appreciated more than four times since its acquisition in November 2009. Unexpectedly, the stock god has a soft spot for railway stocks, which actually accounts for a quarter of the position.</p><p>In May 2019, at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that BNSF is a good asset for us and will continue to do this business for 100 years. The overall railway business is considered to be competitive with other companies. From the second half of last year to the first half of this year, driven by the fiscal stimulus effect of the United States, U.S. imports soared. U.S. railway yards, ports and warehouses have been packed with goods, and U.S. railway freight rates have increased by 15% year-on-year.</p><p>Similarly, in terms of public utilities, Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE) is a wind power and natural gas company. BHE is one of the world's largest electricity suppliers. Its main business is power generation, transmission, distribution and sales of electricity, and transmission The construction and maintenance of gas pipeline networks and power grid projects, while vigorously developing new energy, have created the two largest in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>Power generation projects.</p><p>BHE was privatized by Berkshire after acquiring 85% of BHE's shares for US $1.7 billion in 2000. Currently, Berkshire owns approximately 91% of BHE's shares and contributes approximately 10% of Berkshire's shares every year. profit. Abel, the successor of the stock god, has been in charge of Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE) for a long time. BHE is currently valued at more than US $50 billion, and its revenue in 2020 will be approximately US $20.9 billion.</p><p>In 2021, in a letter to investors, Buffett stated that BHE (Berkshire Hathaway Energy) will rebuild and expand a grid that transmits most of electricity covering the entire western region, expected to be completed by 2030, when BHE will become a leader in providing cleaner energy.</p><p><b>Insurance underwriting operating profit has shrunk by more than half, and net profit has shrunk for 4 consecutive years</b></p><p>According to Berkshire Hathaway's financial report, the insurance business has declined significantly. Data shows that in terms of insurance and other businesses, premium revenue was US $17.163 billion, sales and service revenue was US $36.743 billion, leasing revenue was US $1.447 billion, and interest, Dividend and other investment revenue was US $1.898 billion. The operating profit of insurance underwriting business was US $376 million, a year-on-year decrease of 53.3%; The operating profit of the insurance investment income business was US $1.219 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%.</p><p>With the announcement of the situation in the first half of this year, the market expects Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business to continue to decline in 2021. Data shows that Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business profits have continued to decline in the past five years. It was approximately $750 million in 2020, $800 million in 2019 and $1.3 billion in 2018.</p><p>In fact, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the largest insurance companies in the world. Buffett first acquired the National Insurance Company (NICO) and the National Fire and Marine Insurance Company in 1967, privatized Geco Insurance in 1996, and acquired General Reinsurance for US $22 billion in 1998. The cumulative premium income increased by 1,472 times, with a compound annual growth rate of 16%. At present, Berkshire has become one of the largest insurance companies in the world. After continuous acquisition and integration, there are currently three major insurance operating entities, namely GEICO, Berkshire Reinsurance (BHRG) and BH Primary, which are involved in auto insurance, reinsurance and special insurance businesses respectively, with a total of 27 insurance subsidiaries.</p><p>According to the relevant data of American insurance in 2020 released by the American Association of Insurance Supervisors in March this year. In 2020, the written premiums of the U.S. property and casualty insurance business totaled approximately US $719.7 billion. At the company level, State Farm, Berkshire Hathaway, Progressive,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFG.AU\">Liberty</a>Mutual and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALL\">Allstate</a>Ranked 1 to 5 in total premium income of property and casualty insurance in 2020. Among them, State Farm achieved premiums of US $66.2 billion, accounting for approximately 9.19% of the market share; Berkshire Hathaway's premiums are $46.1 billion, accounting for approximately 6.39% of the market share.</p><p><b>Holding $144 billion in cash, stock positions remain unmoved</b></p><p>At present, Berkshire Hathaway still holds $144.1 billion in cash (cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments), which is stable compared with the previous quarter. At the end of the first quarter, it was $145.4 billion. In August 2020, cash reserves at that time were US $146.6 billion, reaching a record high.</p><p>Judging from the amount itself, Berkshire Hathaway's cash flow has remained stable for more than a year, continuing to remain above $1,440. Driven by huge amounts of cash, Buffett is still active in stock repurchases. In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway spent about $6 billion on share repurchases, bringing the total amount to $12.6 billion in six months. Bought back a record $24.7 billion of company stock last year. The total amount of buybacks since the end of 2019 has exceeded $37 billion.</p><p>Looking at holdings, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio is little changed, totaling nearly $300 billion. Notably, the company cut more than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>More than 50% holdings to 23.7 million shares, and investment in Merck decreased by 37% to 17.9 million shares.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed78f43a62a7682dda9d2b8b667b832a","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140257089","content_text":"“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司8月7日发布2021年第二季度财报。\n财报发布之际，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股票已抹去了2020年的所有下跌，并创下历史新高。该公司的B类股8月上涨了2.7%，今年以来累计涨幅超23%。\n其中，铁路业务税后收益在第二季度竟增长了34%，成为最大亮点。做为巴菲特史上最大金额的一笔投资——2009年440亿美元收购美国铁路系统BNSF（伯灵顿北方圣达菲（Burlington Northern Santa Fe，简称BNSF）。如今该公司估计已经超过1600亿美元。\n显然，随着美国财政刺激的不断加大，越来越多的商品和货物被运往全美各地，经济活动继续从大流行中复苏，铁路公司受益明显。但是，在保险承保业务方面，运营利润只有3.76亿美元，同比下降53.3%。这显示着，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的金融业务收入在这几年来持续下滑。\n目前，伯克希尔·哈撒韦仍手持1441亿美元现金（约合人民币9341亿元），与去年同期1466亿美元的历史新高相比，变化不大。从持仓来看，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票投资组合几乎没有变化，在没有合适的“大象”目标下，巴菲特开展了更多伯克希尔公司股票回购计划。二季度伯克希尔·哈撒韦约有60亿美元用于回购股票，6个月总金额达到126亿美元。而自 2019 年底以来回购总额已超过370亿美元（约合人民币2400亿元）。\n二季度净利润增长6.8%\n8月7日，“股神”巴菲特二季度成绩单出炉，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公布2021年第二季度财报。财报显示，公司二季度总营收为691.14亿美元，较去年同期的568.40亿美元增长22%；归母净利润为280.94亿美元（约合人民币1800亿元），较2020年同期的262.95亿美元增长6.8%。\n\n伯克希尔·哈撒韦A类股每股收益18488美元，上年同期为16314美元；B类股每股收益12.33美元，上年同期为10.88美元。\n财报显示，该公司运营利润66.86亿美元，去年同期为55.13亿美元，同比增长21.3%；投资及衍生品利润214.08亿美元，上年同期为316.45亿美元。\n\n从伯克希尔·哈撒韦披露的数据看，真正的十大重仓项目如下（其中5个未上市，按持仓占比排列）：\n第1位：25%，BNSF铁路（未上市）\n第2位：19%， 苹果(AAPL ，上市)\n第3位：10%，伯克希尔能源（BHE，未上市）\n第4位：7%，盖可车险（GEICO，未上市）\n第5位：5%，美国银行（BAC，上市）\n第6位：3.5%， 可口可乐(KO，上市)\n第7位：3.5%，精密机件（PCP，未上市）\n第8位：2.9%，美国运通（AXP，上市）\n第9位：1.7%, 卡夫亨氏（KHC，上市）\n第10位：1.6%，路博润 （LZ，未上市）\n铁路业务成为最大亮点，二季度增长34%\n从具体业务领域来看，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司同比增长幅度最大的部门，分别是铁路、公用事业和能源部门，营业收入从一年前的17.6亿美元，增加到了22.6亿美元，同比增长27.9%。特别是，铁路业务的税后收益在第二季度增长了34%，反映出整体货运量增加和运营成本降低。\n伯克希尔·哈撒韦的铁路业务，是从2007年开始入股BNSF（伯灵顿北方圣达菲（Burlington Northern Santa Fe，简称BNSF），累计持有22.6%的股份而成为第一大股东。而后在2009年底，在美国经济衰退、BNSF业绩下滑时，巴菲特豪赌美国经济的未来，出手收购私有化了BNSF铁路。当年11月3日，巴菲特又斥资265亿美元和换股权等总价计440亿美元，将BNSF公司私有化。此举也是巴菲特史上最大金额的一笔投资。而当时收购谈判，仅仅用了20分钟。\n巴菲特认为，“我相信这国家将会好起来，并认为在往后的10至30年，有更多人使用这铁路运送更多货物。但这始终是对国家前景的一项赌注。”BNSF 运营北美最大的铁路运输网，主要运输煤炭、工业品和农产品。公司拥有 51500 公里运营网络，6700 台机车，遍及美国 28 个州和加拿大 2 个省，通达北美西海岸和墨西哥湾所有主要港口，亦可直接联接美国西部 2/3 区域中绝 大多数的主要城市，并拥有行业中首屈一指的南加州至芝加哥之间的铁路干线，以及美西北太平洋地区至芝加哥之间 最短的干线。\nBNSF 每年运送超过 500 万个集装箱和拖车，为世界最大的铁路多式联运承运公司。在全国四家大型的货运公司中，BNSF 的货运收入居第一。其收入由35%的消费品、27%的工业产品、21%的农产品和17%的煤炭组成。\n事实上，BNSF被伯克希尔·哈撒韦私有化之后，就随后成为公司财报的亮点，每年可为母公司贡献30多亿美元股息。外界估算，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的铁路业务估值占据了公司的1/4，而BNSF铁路也从2009年11月收购到现在应该升值了4倍多。没想到，股神对铁路股情有独钟，居然占仓位的四分之一。\n2019年5月，一年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会上，巴菲特说， BNSF是我们很好的资产，会把这个业务继续做100年。认为整体铁路业务相对其它公司有竞争力。去年下半年到今年上半年，在美国财政刺激效应带动下，美国进口猛增，美国的铁路站场、港口和仓库已经被货物挤得水泄不通，美国铁路运费同比增长15%。\n同样，公用事业上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司（BHE），是一家风电、天然气公司，BHE是全球最大的电力供应商之一，主营业务是发电、输电、配售电、输气管网及电网工程的建设及维护，同时大力发展新能源，打造了全美最大的两个太阳能发电项目。\nBHE是伯克希尔在2000年以17亿美元收购了BHE 85%的股份后，将其私有化，目前伯克希尔拥有BHE大约91%的股份，每年约为伯克希尔贡献10%的盈利。股神的接班人——阿贝尔就长期执掌伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司（BHE）。BHE当前估值超过500亿美元，在2020年的营收约为209亿美元。\n2021年，在致投资者的信当中，巴菲特表示BHE（伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司）将重修和扩大一个覆盖整个西部地区的传输电力的大部分电网，预计到2030年完工，届时BHE将成为提供更清洁能源的领导者。\n保险承保运营利润缩水逾半，净利润连续4年萎缩\n根据伯克希尔·哈撒韦的财报来看，保险业务下滑明显。数据显示，在保险及其他业务方面，保费营收171.63亿美元，销售及服务营收367.43亿美元，租赁营收14.47亿美元，利息、股息及其他投资营收18.98亿美元。而保险承保业务运营利润3.76亿美元，同比下降53.3%；保险投资收入业务运营利润12.19亿美元，同比下降10.9%。\n随着今年上半年情况的公布，市场预计伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险业务会在2021年持续下滑。数据显示，伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险业务利润在近5年时间里，持续下滑。2020年约为7.5亿美元，2019年为8亿美元，2018年为13亿美元。\n事实上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦是世界上最大的保险公司之一。巴菲特1967年首次收购国民保险公司（NICO）和国家消防和海洋保险公司，1996年私有化盖可保险，1998年以220亿美元收购通用再保险，保费收入累计增长1472倍，年复合增长达16%。目前，伯克希尔公司已经成为全球最大的保险公司之一。经过不断收购和整合，目前有3大保险运营主体，分别为盖可保险（GEICO）、伯克希尔再保险（BHRG）和BH Primary，分别涉足车险、再保险和特殊保险业务，共27家保险子公司。\n根据美国保险监督官协会今年3月份公布的2020年美国保险的相关数据。在2020年，美国财险业务的承保保费总计约7197亿美元。公司层面，State Farm、伯克希尔·哈撒韦、Progressive、Liberty Mutual和好事达分列2020年财险总保费收入的1~5名。其中，State Farm实现保费662亿美元，所占市场份额大约是9.19%；伯克希尔·哈撒韦的保费为461亿美元，所占市场份额大约是6.39%。\n手握1440亿美元现金， 股票仓位不动\n目前伯克希尔·哈撒韦仍手持1441亿美元现金（现金、现金等价物和短期投资），与上季度相比保持稳定。一季度末为1454亿美元。而2020年8月份，当时现金储备为1466亿美元，达到历史新高。\n从金额本身来看，持续一年多时间，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的现金流保持稳定，持续高居在1440美元上方。巨额现金推动下，在股票回购方面，巴菲特仍在积极行动。二季度伯克希尔·哈撒韦约有60亿美元用于回购股票，6个月总金额达到126亿美元。去年回购了创纪录的247亿美元公司股票。而自 2019 年底以来回购总额已超过370亿美元。\n从持仓来看，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票投资组合几乎没有变化，总计近3000亿美元。值得注意的是，该公司削减了超过雪佛龙超过50%的持仓至2370万股，对默克公司的投资减少了37%至1790万股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891144816,"gmtCreate":1628358818535,"gmtModify":1703505379719,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891144816","repostId":"1167785569","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893653941,"gmtCreate":1628260616483,"gmtModify":1703504209723,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893653941","repostId":"1190686261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":889800809,"gmtCreate":1631122579301,"gmtModify":1676530474613,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889800809","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple indicators in the United States alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835240012,"gmtCreate":1629723743636,"gmtModify":1676530111553,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835240012","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.</p><p>Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.</p><p>After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.</p><p>Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>First of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.</p><p>The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.</p><p>Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?</p><p>By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.</p><p>The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.</p><p>--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.</p><p>Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.</p><p>After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.</p><p>Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>First of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.</p><p>The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.</p><p>Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?</p><p>By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.</p><p>The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.</p><p>--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894786105,"gmtCreate":1628857486107,"gmtModify":1676529876355,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894786105","repostId":"1138393223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138393223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628833966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138393223?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138393223","media":"美港电讯","summary":"摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。","content":"<p>The three major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red across the board on Thursday. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, JPMorgan Chase analyst Marko Kolanovic (Marko Kolanovic) emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta mutant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He believes that,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong Earnings Season, Cautious Investor Holdings, Signs of Delta Receding, and Normalizing Bond-Stock Correlation</b>, we still have reservations about the risk of recent market corrections. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the perspective of investor position distribution</b></p><p>As always, Kolanovic believes that no matter how high the position soars at present, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And, while both major banking institutional brokerage firms show record total exposure to hedge funds, retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds at the moment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that the position level will continue to rise, he said that the current position is still near the average level compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta (expressed in percentiles) for generalized hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and funds targeting volatility (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>Beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the whole market, and separates the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>I have to admit that the increased exposure of these funds this year has definitely helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan points to a more important point that these indicators are close to historical averages-at around 50%, while most revisions historically occurred when these indicators were above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators stay at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not encounter a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>Looking at the risk of soaring U.S. bond yields</b></p><p>So, if an investor's position does not pose a risk, what is a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or related to tapering, inflation, etc.).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the 10-year bond price and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices are up 1% on average, tech stocks are up 4%, and financials are down 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>Over the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, communications) have pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovic believes that such a risk is small, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that the conditions for such an event are: stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries will suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. But given the correlation between the two The correlation has weakened, and the recent performance of the stock and bond markets is very good (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are reporting bright, and U.S. bond yields are on the rise), so the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovic pointed out that investors can hedge their risks by holding bonds and stocks less time, which may trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks to a certain extent, thus further illustrating the risk of a widespread sell-off in the stock market. not big.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta virus</b></p><p>Now that the risk of position adjustment and rising yield (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else will cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor hindering the strength of risky assets in the past few months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish speeches from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should feel reassured that the death rate from the Delta epidemic is low among vaccinated countries, and there is a good chance that this will be the last wave of COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta epidemic. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of patients who begin to develop symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 U.S. states.\"<b>Other potential risks</b></p><p>Well, the positions are average, the tapering risk is under control, and the Delta epidemic is receding. Are there any other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefit from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The ultimate level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these sectors and equivalent traditional sectors.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" are likely to continue to burst, Kolanovic believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next year<b>Geopolitical risks</b>Will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia, Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and political developments in the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, the bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港电讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The three major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red across the board on Thursday. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, JPMorgan Chase analyst Marko Kolanovic (Marko Kolanovic) emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta mutant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He believes that,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong Earnings Season, Cautious Investor Holdings, Signs of Delta Receding, and Normalizing Bond-Stock Correlation</b>, we still have reservations about the risk of recent market corrections. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the perspective of investor position distribution</b></p><p>As always, Kolanovic believes that no matter how high the position soars at present, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And, while both major banking institutional brokerage firms show record total exposure to hedge funds, retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds at the moment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that the position level will continue to rise, he said that the current position is still near the average level compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta (expressed in percentiles) for generalized hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and funds targeting volatility (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>Beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the whole market, and separates the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>I have to admit that the increased exposure of these funds this year has definitely helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan points to a more important point that these indicators are close to historical averages-at around 50%, while most revisions historically occurred when these indicators were above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators stay at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not encounter a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>Looking at the risk of soaring U.S. bond yields</b></p><p>So, if an investor's position does not pose a risk, what is a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or related to tapering, inflation, etc.).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the 10-year bond price and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices are up 1% on average, tech stocks are up 4%, and financials are down 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>Over the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, communications) have pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovic believes that such a risk is small, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that the conditions for such an event are: stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries will suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. But given the correlation between the two The correlation has weakened, and the recent performance of the stock and bond markets is very good (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are reporting bright, and U.S. bond yields are on the rise), so the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovic pointed out that investors can hedge their risks by holding bonds and stocks less time, which may trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks to a certain extent, thus further illustrating the risk of a widespread sell-off in the stock market. not big.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta virus</b></p><p>Now that the risk of position adjustment and rising yield (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else will cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor hindering the strength of risky assets in the past few months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish speeches from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should feel reassured that the death rate from the Delta epidemic is low among vaccinated countries, and there is a good chance that this will be the last wave of COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta epidemic. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of patients who begin to develop symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 U.S. states.\"<b>Other potential risks</b></p><p>Well, the positions are average, the tapering risk is under control, and the Delta epidemic is receding. Are there any other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefit from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The ultimate level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these sectors and equivalent traditional sectors.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" are likely to continue to burst, Kolanovic believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next year<b>Geopolitical risks</b>Will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia, Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and political developments in the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, the bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733\">美港电讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138393223","content_text":"周四美股三大股指收盘全线飘红。道指和标普500指数盘中双双再创新高。医药、软件板块表现强势，新能源相关板块连续第二日回落。\n对此，摩根大通分析师马克•科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）强调，市场夸大了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，价值股将大幅上涨，超过成长股。他认为，美债收益率和周期股可能已经在上周触底，今年剩余时间料将打开上行空间。\n科拉诺维奇表示：\n\n “鉴于\n 强劲的财报季、投资者谨慎的持仓、德尔塔病毒消退的迹象以及债券-股票相关性正常化，我们对近期市场回调风险仍持保留意见。我们尤其看好周期性和通货再膨胀相关的市场板块，并对受益于疫情和低债券收益率的股票持谨慎态度。”\n\n从投资者的仓位分布来看\n科拉诺维奇一如既往地认为，不管仓位目前飙升到多高，平均情况才是最好的参考指标。而且，尽管两家主要银行机构经纪公司均显示对冲基金的总敞口达到创纪录水平，但散户投资者目前显然还是将“所有资金”投入对冲基金。\n\n抛开事实不谈，虽然科拉诺维奇预估仓位水平将持续上升，但他表示，目前的仓位与10年历史相比，仍处在平均水平附近。图1显示了广义对冲基金、股票多/空对冲基金和以波动率为目标的基金（如保险公司、风险平价等）的股票贝塔系数（以百分位数表示）。\n贝塔系数用来量化个别投资工具相对整个市场的波动，将个别风险引起的价格变化和整个市场波动分离开来。\n\n不得不承认的是，今年这些基金增加的敞口肯定对股市有所帮助。然而，摩根大通指出了更重要的一点，这些指标接近历史平均水平——约50%处，而历史上大多数修正发生在这些指标高于80%左右的时候。不过，有时即使这些指标在100%逗留了长达一年的时间，股市也没有遭遇显著的修正。\n这是因为，在这个市场上，广泛的投资者仓位完全无关紧要，只有美联储的政策走向至关重要。\n从美债收益率飙升的风险来看\n那么，如果投资者的仓位不构成风险，什么才是风险呢？按照科拉诺维奇的说法，下一个风险因素是收益率可能急剧上升（或与缩减购债规模、通胀等相关）。下图展示了10年期债券价格与不同股票板块的贝塔系数之间的相关性。\n\n科拉诺维奇写道，在7月份，科技板块的债券贝塔值为+4，而金融板块的贝塔值为-3。换句话说，10年期债券价格平均上涨1%，科技股上涨4%，金融股下跌3%。财报发布后，这种相关性有所减弱，现在所有股票板块都与债券价格呈现典型的负相关性。\n在过去一个月里，纳斯达克板块（如科技、非必需资产、通讯）走弱推动标普500指数债券类股的贝塔指数从第二季度的负区域升至约1。\n这里明显的风险是，在债券抛售期间这种相关性的迅速逆转，可能导致债券和股票双双遭到抛售。这在2018年2月和10月就曾发生过。\n科拉诺维奇认为这样的风险很小，他写道：\n\n “考虑到当前的仓位水平、波动性和其他因素，我们估计，这样的事件发生的条件是：股票和10年期美债在1天内遭受约3%的抛售。但鉴于两者间的相关性已经减弱，且近期股市和债市的表现都很不错（周期性股票抬头、成长型股票财报成绩亮眼以及美债收益率回升），因此债券和股票双双遭到抛售的概率极低。”\n\n科拉诺维奇指出，投资者可以通过减少持有债券和股票的时间来对冲风险，这可能在一定程度上将触发投资者从成长型股票转向价值股，因此更加说明了股市大范围抛售风险不大。\n从德尔塔病毒的风险来看\n既然仓位调整和收益率上升（或者说缩债）的风险能得到有效控制，还有什么因素会引发担忧呢？\n科拉诺维奇表示，过去几个月阻碍风险资产走强的主要因素是德尔塔毒株的传播，而非经济增长见顶或者美联储鹰派发言。科拉诺维奇坚信，尽管病例数量高企，“在接种了疫苗的国家中，德尔塔疫情的死亡率较低，投资者应该感到放心，而且这很有可能是最后一波新冠疫情。”\n\n科拉诺维奇补充道：\n\n “有强烈的迹象表明，美国正在开始逆转德尔塔疫情。一个重要信号是，美国50个州中有40个州的基本传染数（某时刻开始出现症状的患者平均能够感染的人数）正在下降。”\n\n其他潜在风险\n那么，仓位处于平均水平，缩减风险已得到控制，德尔塔疫情正在消退。市场还存在其他风险吗?\n答案是肯定的。在摩根大通量化分析师列出的次级风险中，包括在新冠疫情中受益的资产，如可再生能源和电动汽车、加密货币和创新股。\n虽然这些板块在年初经历了一次重大调整，但摩根大通相信还会有另一轮下跌。最终的调整水平可能由这些行业与同等传统行业之间的估值趋同决定。\n尽管这些“泡沫资产”可能会继续破裂，但科拉诺维奇认为，这也不足以摧毁市场。\n最后，科拉诺维奇预计，明年地缘政治风险将会进一步增加和放大，这些风险将涉及各种相互依存的问题，如美国与俄罗斯、伊朗的地缘政治关系、围绕能源安全的问题，通货膨胀，以及美国自身的政治发展。但只要美联储继续每月向市场注入数十亿美元的流动性，看涨的预期就不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802144001,"gmtCreate":1627741152903,"gmtModify":1703495386598,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802144001","repostId":"1120441766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"<p>As July comes to an end, investors begin to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve is the focus as always, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, because nearly half of companies have reported earnings during this period. However, at least from a historical perspective, there are still some weak seasonal trends in the stock market going into September. This is something to watch, especially given that both inflation and stock valuations remain a concern.</p><p><b>Corporate Earnings Season</b></p><p>Investors can refocus on corporate earnings season after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long term, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. By the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was perfectly in line with analysts' expectations and even partially beat them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 dropped 2% on fears of a Delta virus mutation, and there was a slight move; But in late July, the outstanding performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of the U.S. stock market. Into August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Performance worries many investors. There are signs that as the virus spreads further, more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel.</p><p>Markets can't anticipate changes in the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean a return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, which are fixed income, mega-cap tech stocks and the dollar.</p><p>Going back to profitability, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed fairly well in July reports, as did airlines and railroads. There is an argument that if railroads work well, the broader economy will do well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor earnings expectations are also rising for the full quarter, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared with a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in multiple sectors (led by financial, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported earnings that beat expectations, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in semiconductors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither of them failed to impress investors with their stock prices on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to perform well beyond expectations or have a wide room for growth in order to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.</p><p><b>Fed Policy Support and Economic Data</b></p><p>The \"not fighting the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to shore up the stock market during any downturn. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation is likely to cool.</p><p>The Fed's rhetoric will affect \"key indicators\" of global assets: Will US Treasury Bond yields return to an upward path in August, or will they fall below their nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as tech, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as financials and energy. The tug of war between growth and value that has continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, there was a lot on Wall Street that Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited tapering of its stimulus plan. That doesn't have to be the case now: U.S. bond yields have fallen steadily since the end of March, seemingly giving the Fed more room to maneuver in order to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. It's a tactic the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3% by the end of July. This is a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and high inflation month after month.</p><p>Both President Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be paying close attention to July consumer and producer prices due in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus is likely now turning more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, that could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Some economists point to the Fed's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which is providing unnecessary ammunition to an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility attracts attention</b></p><p>August may be a time to give investors a breather. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor has been disrupted a bit last year, but Wall Street may have had a more normal holiday schedule if fear of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that one expects less turmoil ahead.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that the seasonal factors in August are not favorable to the market. Judging from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which is the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, in 72 years, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% 19 times in the first half of that year. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half, the median return in August typically falls 51 basis points before rising again.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-31 01:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As July comes to an end, investors begin to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve is the focus as always, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, because nearly half of companies have reported earnings during this period. However, at least from a historical perspective, there are still some weak seasonal trends in the stock market going into September. This is something to watch, especially given that both inflation and stock valuations remain a concern.</p><p><b>Corporate Earnings Season</b></p><p>Investors can refocus on corporate earnings season after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long term, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. By the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was perfectly in line with analysts' expectations and even partially beat them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 dropped 2% on fears of a Delta virus mutation, and there was a slight move; But in late July, the outstanding performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of the U.S. stock market. Into August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Performance worries many investors. There are signs that as the virus spreads further, more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel.</p><p>Markets can't anticipate changes in the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean a return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, which are fixed income, mega-cap tech stocks and the dollar.</p><p>Going back to profitability, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed fairly well in July reports, as did airlines and railroads. There is an argument that if railroads work well, the broader economy will do well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor earnings expectations are also rising for the full quarter, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared with a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in multiple sectors (led by financial, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported earnings that beat expectations, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in semiconductors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither of them failed to impress investors with their stock prices on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to perform well beyond expectations or have a wide room for growth in order to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.</p><p><b>Fed Policy Support and Economic Data</b></p><p>The \"not fighting the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to shore up the stock market during any downturn. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation is likely to cool.</p><p>The Fed's rhetoric will affect \"key indicators\" of global assets: Will US Treasury Bond yields return to an upward path in August, or will they fall below their nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as tech, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as financials and energy. The tug of war between growth and value that has continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, there was a lot on Wall Street that Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited tapering of its stimulus plan. That doesn't have to be the case now: U.S. bond yields have fallen steadily since the end of March, seemingly giving the Fed more room to maneuver in order to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. It's a tactic the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3% by the end of July. This is a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and high inflation month after month.</p><p>Both President Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be paying close attention to July consumer and producer prices due in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus is likely now turning more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, that could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Some economists point to the Fed's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which is providing unnecessary ammunition to an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility attracts attention</b></p><p>August may be a time to give investors a breather. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor has been disrupted a bit last year, but Wall Street may have had a more normal holiday schedule if fear of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that one expects less turmoil ahead.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that the seasonal factors in August are not favorable to the market. Judging from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which is the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, in 72 years, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% 19 times in the first half of that year. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half, the median return in August typically falls 51 basis points before rising again.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"content":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]","text":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]","html":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863524636,"gmtCreate":1632407213825,"gmtModify":1676530775482,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863524636","repostId":"2169565516","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169565516","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632364656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2169565516?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169565516","media":"36氪","summary":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息","content":"<p>Because of the account banning and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has led to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale will lay off employees. Especially under the swallowing up of some We Media traffic, there seems to be no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon closed? At the beginning, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. Since Amazon officials kept quiet, this number gradually acquiesced into a fact.</p><p>Even at the event that Amazon held last Friday when the world's first comprehensive seller training center settled in Hangzhou, it kept its mouth shut about the number of store closures, and did not plan to disclose it to the public, hoping that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will definitely not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a question-and-answer session of the settlement event into a press conference of the store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's global vice president and CEO of Amazon's global store opening Asia-Pacific region, said frankly, \"Today's release was originally aimed at the training center settling in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the blocking of the account, so we made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her disclosure, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the brand sales authority of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused comments, as well as many other violations. In the past period of time, Amazon has given many warnings to these sellers, and they have many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate the rules, so this time they decided to terminate the cooperative relationship with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller's violation of regulations was serious, and Amazon gave him many opportunities and still refused to change, so it was forced to take the last step.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final figure must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, with frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect on?</p><p>Advances in Algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. That is, Amazon has two account sweeps every year, once on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts 2 months in advance for its own large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; Another time is two months before Christmas, that is, mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, a brand authorizes 50 stores, and blocking a few has no impact at all. \"In fact, as long as the shops closed don't exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about it.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's big explosion in the industry, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether commodity reviews are true or false. In the past, many self-operated Listing (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, later, because the error was too serious, Amazon did not continue to shut down on a large scale.</p><p>But the technology has been improving until this year it began to mature a lot. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging according to the logic of the store, but according to the logic of the brand dimension. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand and exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of shop groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Amazon's new CEO Andy Jassy (Andy Jassy) was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site invitation reviews and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, it will definitely be a bad review invited back. So this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money can't be done.\" said the above seller.</p><p>Vendor Logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and itself is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all digital assets of the seller on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping mall, and Amazon is a department store. So this laid the groundwork for some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the rules, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, and Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent liability will be jointly and severally liable for the lawsuit.</p><p>This has also been confirmed by Cindy Tai. Amazon's fund freezing period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the refund and return compensation fees of the seller's past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial institution and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the list.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon has done badly is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-identification link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests to be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes silently, the future is probably a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In terms of the complaint process, Cindy Tai, global vice president of Amazon and executive president of Amazon Global Store Open Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated due to violations, Amazon will provide sellers with opportunities to complain; As long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was wrong, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a plan on how to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36 Krypton's knowledge from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the diverse changes of Amazon's rules. The main problem is that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the entire cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What I have been looking for is which companies can go through the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to get out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the company's comprehensive capabilities on user needs, marketing methods, supply chain influence, etc., but it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even scarcer. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein and Shein has made all investors very excited and look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>On the way out in the future, the first thing the industry needs to reconstruct is consciousness. In the past, the distribution path has been a dead end, and the sooner the transformation opportunities will be. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because it was two years late to transform its brand. When I chased back, I found that the probability of success was very small. This is also the dividend path dependence left in the early stages of the industry. Because it was easier to make quick money in the past, people are reluctant to take a difficult and correct path with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category for deep cultivation. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and rude mode work? It is because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and services. Third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brands to be more determined. Under such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce going out of the circle, and the title banning is accelerating. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across borders. For industries that seem to have no threshold, in fact, the threshold is not low, especially in the practical stage. Maybe part of the pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but the advantage of building competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using capital power. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively average, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, you will obviously find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing funds by capital is only the bottom-level role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investors were talents such as some large manufacturers, highly educated people, and rich industry experience. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business structure. In other words, if you don't accept the investment, the capital will be invested in your competitors.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy on earth does Amazon block Chinese sellers?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Because of the account banning and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has led to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale will lay off employees. Especially under the swallowing up of some We Media traffic, there seems to be no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon closed? At the beginning, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. Since Amazon officials kept quiet, this number gradually acquiesced into a fact.</p><p>Even at the event that Amazon held last Friday when the world's first comprehensive seller training center settled in Hangzhou, it kept its mouth shut about the number of store closures, and did not plan to disclose it to the public, hoping that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will definitely not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a question-and-answer session of the settlement event into a press conference of the store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's global vice president and CEO of Amazon's global store opening Asia-Pacific region, said frankly, \"Today's release was originally aimed at the training center settling in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the blocking of the account, so we made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her disclosure, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the brand sales authority of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused comments, as well as many other violations. In the past period of time, Amazon has given many warnings to these sellers, and they have many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate the rules, so this time they decided to terminate the cooperative relationship with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller's violation of regulations was serious, and Amazon gave him many opportunities and still refused to change, so it was forced to take the last step.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final figure must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, with frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect on?</p><p>Advances in Algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. That is, Amazon has two account sweeps every year, once on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts 2 months in advance for its own large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; Another time is two months before Christmas, that is, mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, a brand authorizes 50 stores, and blocking a few has no impact at all. \"In fact, as long as the shops closed don't exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about it.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's big explosion in the industry, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether commodity reviews are true or false. In the past, many self-operated Listing (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, later, because the error was too serious, Amazon did not continue to shut down on a large scale.</p><p>But the technology has been improving until this year it began to mature a lot. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging according to the logic of the store, but according to the logic of the brand dimension. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand and exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of shop groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Amazon's new CEO Andy Jassy (Andy Jassy) was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site invitation reviews and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, it will definitely be a bad review invited back. So this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money can't be done.\" said the above seller.</p><p>Vendor Logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and itself is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all digital assets of the seller on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping mall, and Amazon is a department store. So this laid the groundwork for some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the rules, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, and Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent liability will be jointly and severally liable for the lawsuit.</p><p>This has also been confirmed by Cindy Tai. Amazon's fund freezing period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the refund and return compensation fees of the seller's past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial institution and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the list.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon has done badly is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-identification link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests to be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes silently, the future is probably a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In terms of the complaint process, Cindy Tai, global vice president of Amazon and executive president of Amazon Global Store Open Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated due to violations, Amazon will provide sellers with opportunities to complain; As long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was wrong, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a plan on how to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36 Krypton's knowledge from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the diverse changes of Amazon's rules. The main problem is that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the entire cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What I have been looking for is which companies can go through the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to get out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the company's comprehensive capabilities on user needs, marketing methods, supply chain influence, etc., but it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even scarcer. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein and Shein has made all investors very excited and look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>On the way out in the future, the first thing the industry needs to reconstruct is consciousness. In the past, the distribution path has been a dead end, and the sooner the transformation opportunities will be. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because it was two years late to transform its brand. When I chased back, I found that the probability of success was very small. This is also the dividend path dependence left in the early stages of the industry. Because it was easier to make quick money in the past, people are reluctant to take a difficult and correct path with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category for deep cultivation. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and rude mode work? It is because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and services. Third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brands to be more determined. Under such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce going out of the circle, and the title banning is accelerating. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across borders. For industries that seem to have no threshold, in fact, the threshold is not low, especially in the practical stage. Maybe part of the pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but the advantage of building competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using capital power. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively average, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, you will obviously find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing funds by capital is only the bottom-level role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investors were talents such as some large manufacturers, highly educated people, and rich industry experience. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business structure. In other words, if you don't accept the investment, the capital will be invested in your competitors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dffe01d72356572c6df4fa7726ddb0c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2169565516","content_text":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息不对称是亚马逊到底封了多少个中国店铺？开始最主流传言是有5万家，由于亚马逊官方一直保持不对外发声，这个数字就逐渐默认成事实。\n即使在亚马逊上周五召开的全球首个综合性卖家培训中心落户杭州活动上，对于封店数量还是三缄其口，不计划对外披露，希望冷处理就过去。\n被邀请的媒体们肯定不会放过这个难得机会，所以活生生把一场落户活动问答环节变成了封店潮发布会。以至于亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai都坦言，“今天这个发布本来是针对培训中心落户杭州的，只是没想到这么多媒体关注账号被封之事，所以就一起进行了首次回应。”\n据她透露，过去5个月，亚马逊关闭了约600个中国卖家品牌销售权限，涉及品牌数约3000个，包括一些大卖家。“这些卖家都有多次、反复、严重滥用评论行为，以及有许多其他违规行为。在过去一段时间，亚马逊对这些卖家进行过多次警告，他们也有多次申诉机会，甚至恢复了一些停用过的账号。但是这些卖家持续违规，所以这次决定终止和这些卖家的合作关系。”\n翻译过来就是，被封掉的卖家违规行为严重，亚马逊给了很多次机会仍屡教不改，所以被迫走了最后一步。\n“亚马逊只是公布了前五个月的数据，6、7、8月数据没有披露，这三个月也有很多店铺受影响。所以最终的数字一定比这个大很多。”一位资深从业者告诉36氪。\n对于严重依赖亚马逊的卖家来说，损失确实不小。比如曾经的华南城四少之有棵树，被封掉店铺340个，冻结资金1.3亿元。直接导致员工离职一半，收入下滑一半，净亏损超7亿元；另一大卖通拓科技被禁售关闭店铺数 54 个， 冻结资金 4143 万元。\n那么，亚马逊这次封店力度和强度为什么这么大？背后让我们真正反思的又有哪些？\n算法的进步\n事实上，行业内都知道一个潜规则。就是亚马逊每年固定有两次账号扫荡，一次是在7月左右的会员日（Prime Day），亚马逊为了自己这个大型促销活动通常会提前2个月关掉一些账号，也就是在4月底到5月初；另一次是在圣诞节的前2个月，即10月中旬或者11月初。\n因为看到了这个巨大的漏洞，所以很多卖家都有自己的应对之策。比如一个品牌授权50个店铺，封掉几个完全没有影响。“其实只要关掉的店铺没有超过一定比例，连老板都不需要知道这事。”某卖家告诉36氪。\n经过去年行业大爆炸后，今年所有卖家也都更乐观，完全没看到这件事背后真正的风险。其实早在3年前，亚马逊就在利用算法机器人在检测商品评论是真实还是虚假。曾经也封掉了很多自营Listing（产品页面），比如深圳某卖家的Listing就从1.7万缩减至1000，朋友圈也是一篇哀嚎。好在后来因为有误差太严重，亚马逊就没再大规模继续封停。\n但技术一直在进步，直到今年开始成熟许多。加上亚马逊改变了规则，不再是按照店铺逻辑评判，而是按照品牌维度逻辑。只要算法识别出有问题的品牌，也超过了一定比例，旗下店铺一律关停。所以才有了大量店铺群被封。\n36氪也注意到，亚马逊新任CEO安迪·杰西(Andy Jassy)，此前是亚马逊云计算CEO，不是电商负责人。这也证明亚马逊作为一家数据驱动公司，对于平台数据真实度的保护更加重视。\n“相信这次事件以后，很多卖家会开始采用白帽玩法。以及亚马逊也鼓励站内邀评，通过站内信邀请用户评价。如果产品和体验不好，邀回来的肯定是差评。所以这件事对整个生态是很有好处的。如果一直劣币驱逐良币，良币就不可能做起来。”上述卖家说道。\n供应商逻辑\n除了算法的持续迭代外，亚马逊对卖家定义也和国内天猫淘宝不一样。不一样地方在于，亚马逊是把平台上所有卖家视为供应商，自己相当于一个零售商。\n也就是说，卖家在亚马逊上的所有数字资产都归属亚马逊。即使你是苹果，是耐克，都是亚马逊的供应商。\n“可以这么理解，天猫类似于一个购物中心，亚马逊是一个百货公司。所以这就埋下了亚马逊的一些处罚机制伏笔。如果是天猫卖家违规，平台会动你的货和资金吗？亚马逊谈的更多是销售规模，天猫谈才GMV。”智云天工销售副总周骏告诉36氪。\n对于亚马逊就不同，一旦收了顾客的货款，就要为用户负责。只要发现卖家可能对顾客造成伤害，就会先把资金冻结，以应付后续会不会因为起诉承担连带责任。\n这也得到了Cindy Tai的证实，亚马逊资金冻结周期为90天，主要用来承担卖家过去客户的退款退货赔偿费用，以及其他未支付费用。90天后，如果没有违规会可申请取回。\n所以，在亚马逊开店，其实不是自己在卖货，而是卖家给平台供货，平台再帮忙卖货。亚马逊不是行政和司法机构，没权力冻结资金和货。但就因为亚马逊的供应商逻辑，因此只要违反了供应商规则，就得从名录里踢掉。\n“从价值观来讲，刷单是严重的撒谎、造假行为，我们都是深恶痛绝的。但也不能一味污名化中国卖家，行业里大家都在没日没夜干活。亚马逊做的不好的地方是，起码有个听证会，给卖家一个自辨环节。对于卖家来说，该争取的合法权益必须争取。如果这次默默过去，未来估计是噩梦。”周骏说。\n在申诉流程上，亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai表示，如果一个卖家账号因为违规行为被停用，亚马逊会为卖家提供申诉机会；只要这个卖家证明亚马逊判断有误，或者证明违规行为只是暂时或无意失误，并提供如何避免再次违规方案，这些账号会恢复正常运营。\n但据36氪从多位卖家处了解到，从亚马逊申诉成功的概率几乎为0。同时，对于亚马逊的规则变化多样把握也不是很准，其中主要问题在于邮件沟通这种方式效率很低。\n出路在哪儿？\n对于整个跨境电商行业来说，目前还处于很早期阶段，甚至都还谈不上一个行业。36氪从走访的多家投资机构中发现，投资人对行业的乐观判断未受到任何影响。一直在寻找的是，哪些企业能穿越周期，有意识有能力走出一个新品牌。\n塑造一个品牌很难，需要的是企业对用户需求、营销玩法、供应链影响等综合能力，但正因为门槛高，所以才更加稀缺。特别是安克创新和Shein的成功，让所有投资人都很兴奋，期待找到下一个这样的投资标的。\n在未来出路上，行业首先要重构的是意识。过往的铺货路径已经是死胡同，越早转型机会越多。行业某大卖家就是因为晚了2年转型品牌，才丧失了很多先发红利。等回头猛追才发现，成功概率微乎其微。这个也是行业早期阶段留下的红利路径依赖，因为过去方式赚快钱更容易，所以都不太愿意走一条有积累、难而正确的路。\n然后，找到一个细分的垂直品类深耕。如果说之前是粗旷式的经营，现在肯定要进行精细化运营。而且对品类要求门槛变得更高。为什么之前那种简单粗暴模式行不通？就是因为消费者在觉醒，对产品质量、服务要求变得更高，亚马逊这样的第三方也在逐渐改变策略，鼓励品牌决心更强。如此环境之下，没有精细化的能力，或许未来压根没有利润可言。\n其次，引入一些高素质的技术人才。疫情是跨境电商出圈的开始，封号是加速，带来的直接影响就是更多创业者跨界进入。看似没有门槛的行业，实则门槛不低，特别到了实操阶段。也许直到现在还能走通一部分纯生意逻辑，但是打造竞争壁垒这件事优势就需要更多高素质人才加入。特别是偏技术端，就目前行业从业者来看，能提升的空间还是很大。\n最后，善于借助资本力量。一直以来，因为跨境电商赚钱容易，甚至不缺现金流。所以对资本的欲望也相对一般，但如果梳理安克创新和Shein就会明显发现，这两家公司之所以在资本市场有这么高的估值，特别是后者的高增长。离不开资本的助力，资本无好坏，核心在于如何去利用。资本提供资金只是底层作用，更大的赋能对做强做大帮助大。\n从任何一个行业发展周期来看，资本大规模进入是在渗透率有一定提高之后。这时候投资的是一些大厂、高学历、丰富行业经验等人才，这些创新力量在技术推动下开始走出新的路子，以及重构商业格局。换句话说，你不接受投资，资本就会投资你的竞争对手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831981160,"gmtCreate":1629279719750,"gmtModify":1676529989266,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg&nbsp;","listText":"Omg&nbsp;","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831981160","repostId":"1147839184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147839184","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1629262210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147839184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 12:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks Markets Still Unpriced","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147839184","media":"Wind万得","summary":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，","content":"<p>The U.S. released retail sales data overnight, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey said in a report that the overnight data did not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>A Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales in May and June were revised upward, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a larger-than-expected decline. Notably, this decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and closures seen earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that U.S. consumers are choosing to stay home and spend less-consistent with last week's UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey) sharp declines. In addition, the survey of individual categories showed that consumer discretionary goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-brick-and-mortar retail stores saw the largest slowdown, perhaps also reflecting the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer Leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Yesterday's earnings report showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production rose in July, mainly driven by an 11.2% increase in automobile and parts manufacturing, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined, reaching its lowest level since July 2020, driven by current sales and expected sales components, although future sales expectations remain unchanged.</p><p>Taken together, Goldman strategists wrote, \"Lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood of the Delta virus mutation dragging on services consumption, our economists may revise their assumptions for growth in the second half of the year, although we still do not expect the Delta variant to have a substantial economic impact on the United States against the backdrop of ample vaccine supplies and relatively loose COVID policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman Sachs but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Worse: Commenting on the retail data, Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer stressed that although she expected a small increase in retail sales in August, \"there are still downside risks\". Non-store retailer spending should rebound, but services spending will weaken-travel spending has retreated significantly, which appears to be consistent with rising Covid cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers expressed concerns about rising cases and high prices in novel coronavirus pneumonia, \"which we've been highlighting for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also noted: \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending pushed real consumer spending we tracked up just 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting that data into a GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy is running slowly in the third quarter\" and now expects growth to be just 4.5% after the retail sales report, down from the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth, said: \"The Delta variant has dampened the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to pay attention to its ripple effects on the economy.\" \"It's going to be a long-term issue and it's going to cause some volatility in the market.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks Markets Still Unpriced</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks Markets Still Unpriced\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 12:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. released retail sales data overnight, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey said in a report that the overnight data did not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>A Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales in May and June were revised upward, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a larger-than-expected decline. Notably, this decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and closures seen earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that U.S. consumers are choosing to stay home and spend less-consistent with last week's UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey) sharp declines. In addition, the survey of individual categories showed that consumer discretionary goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-brick-and-mortar retail stores saw the largest slowdown, perhaps also reflecting the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer Leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Yesterday's earnings report showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production rose in July, mainly driven by an 11.2% increase in automobile and parts manufacturing, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined, reaching its lowest level since July 2020, driven by current sales and expected sales components, although future sales expectations remain unchanged.</p><p>Taken together, Goldman strategists wrote, \"Lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood of the Delta virus mutation dragging on services consumption, our economists may revise their assumptions for growth in the second half of the year, although we still do not expect the Delta variant to have a substantial economic impact on the United States against the backdrop of ample vaccine supplies and relatively loose COVID policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman Sachs but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Worse: Commenting on the retail data, Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer stressed that although she expected a small increase in retail sales in August, \"there are still downside risks\". Non-store retailer spending should rebound, but services spending will weaken-travel spending has retreated significantly, which appears to be consistent with rising Covid cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers expressed concerns about rising cases and high prices in novel coronavirus pneumonia, \"which we've been highlighting for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also noted: \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending pushed real consumer spending we tracked up just 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting that data into a GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy is running slowly in the third quarter\" and now expects growth to be just 4.5% after the retail sales report, down from the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth, said: \"The Delta variant has dampened the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to pay attention to its ripple effects on the economy.\" \"It's going to be a long-term issue and it's going to cause some volatility in the market.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147839184","content_text":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，但7月份美国零售销售下降了1.1%，降幅超过预期。值得注意的是，这种下降没有伴随疫情早期出现过的出行限制和关闭措施，这表明美国消费者选择呆在家里，减少支出——这与上周密歇根消费者信心调查(UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey)的大幅下降一致。此外，对个别类别的调查显示，非必需消费品(如电子产品和电器)以及非实体零售店的增速放缓幅度最大，这或许也反映出一些失业救济即将到期。消费者领头羊沃尔玛和家得宝昨日公布的财报显示，消费者行为正在放缓。\n在供应方面，7月份工业生产增长，主要受汽车和零部件制造业增长11.2%的推动，同时企业库存也有所增加。受当前销售和预期销售成分的推动，建筑商信心也下降，达到2020年7月以来的最低水平，尽管未来销售预期保持不变。\n综上所述，高盛策略师写道，“7月份低于预期的零售销售和汽车产量，加上Delta病毒变异越来越可能拖累服务消费，我们的经济学家可能会修改对下半年增长的假设，尽管我们仍然预计，在疫苗供应充足和相对宽松的新冠政策的背景下，Delta变种不会对美国产生实质性的经济影响。”\n不仅是高盛，但美国银行的说法更糟：美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔•迈耶(Michelle Meyer)在对零售数据发表评论时强调，尽管她预计8月份零售额会出现小幅增长，但“仍存在下行风险”。非商店零售商的支出应该会反弹，但服务支出将会减弱——旅行支出明显回落，这似乎与新冠病例的增加相一致。与此类似，密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者信心调查在8月初大幅下降，因为消费者对新冠肺炎病例增加和价格高企表示担忧，“我们几个月来一直在强调这一点。”\n迈耶还指出：“在对更高的价格进行调整后，名义支出的疲软使我们在第三季度追踪到的实际消费支出仅增长1.5%，第二季度的实际消费增长12.3%。”将该数据放到GDP的预测模型里，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，目前在零售销售报告发布后经济增速预期仅为 4.5%，低于该银行官方预测的7%。\n\nCIBC Private Wealth 的首席投资官 David Donabedian 表示：“Delta 变体已经打击了普通美国人的信心，因此我们需要关注它对经济的连锁反应。” “这将是一个长期问题，将会导致市场出现一些波动。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839057313,"gmtCreate":1629110261732,"gmtModify":1676529933269,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"omg","listText":"omg","text":"omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839057313","repostId":"2159241181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807003704,"gmtCreate":1627985589408,"gmtModify":1703499105220,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807003704","repostId":"1146938180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146938180","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1627958922,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146938180?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-03 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The bipartisan infrastructure bill in the United States is here. How many industries will win or lose?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146938180","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"美国参议院一项斥资5500亿美元建设美国基础设施的计划将使高度依赖交通运输的行业受益，其中亚马逊、联邦快递和康卡斯特等公司高度将成最大的赢家。\n智通财经APP了解到，参议员们在上周末就该法案的最终文本","content":"<p>A $550 billion U.S. Senate plan to build U.S. infrastructure will benefit industries that are highly dependent on transportation, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSK\">Comcast</a>Wait for the company to be the biggest winner.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that after senators reached an agreement on the final text of the bill last weekend, they are currently debating the bill, and are expected to vote on the bill as soon as this week, so that the House of Representatives can adopt the bill after the September recess. act on the bill.</p><p>While freight companies, airlines and internet providers will receive a boost, the 2,702-page bill is not in favor of the crypto industry, drugmakers and electric vehicle makers. This bill represents the largest public works expenditure by the U.S. federal government in decades, and will also be a major milestone in U.S. President Joe Biden's agenda. However, for this plan, some people are happy and some people are sad in various industries, and the content of the plan is good or bad.</p><p>\"Favorite\" field</p><p><b>Transportation Company</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">United Parcel</a>Companies such as UPS.US, as major users of highways, will benefit from an investment of about $110 billion to improve roads and bridges in the United States. These few companies and hundreds of others using the highway system will directly benefit without having to bear the investment costs of corporate or gas tax increases. Republicans and Democrats agreed not to include the two companies in the agreement.</p><p><b>Airlines vs. Amtrak</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Group (AAL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Company (DAL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>Companies (LUV.US) will benefit from an approximately $25 billion bill that will plan to upgrade airports and reduce emissions and congestion. Like road users, these companies do not have to pay for these repairs directly. The plan also includes an investment of $66 billion, which will be used by Amtrak to upgrade the Northeast Corridor line and make new investments in railways and high-speed railways in other parts of the United States.</p><p><b>Commodity companies</b></p><p>All these roads, bridges, pipelines, wires and railways will require a lot of steel, cement, aluminum, copper, and the prices of many of these commodities have soared this year, including steel.</p><p><b>Internet service provider</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSA\">Comcast</a>And broadband providers such as Chartered Communications Corporation (CHTR.US) have become beneficiaries of infrastructure construction, because senators have refused to support the U.S. government's extensive subsidies to companies that have already established networks. The bill would provide U.S. subsidies to areas lacking essential services. Additionally, the bill appears to bring more customers to broadband providers as it expands emergency broadband programs that help consumers pay for services.</p><p>The bill also requires providers to offer low-cost broadband options, but includes a ban on government-set prices. Large suppliers are already offering such programs. Analysts have offered different views on the provision, with some arguing that there will be no material impact on suppliers and others arguing that companies may be at risk if the Biden administration tries to ensure that more customers have access to cheap packages.</p><p><b>Nuclear energy</b></p><p>Under the bill, struggling nuclear power reactors will receive $6 billion in funding, which could help prevent nuclear plants from collapsing in competition with natural gas and a growing supply of cheap electricity from renewable sources. Right<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOJA\">Southern Co</a>. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXC\">Axosaurus</a>The aid could be a good thing for uranium operators such as Electric Power (EXC.US) and uranium miners such as Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU.US).</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical Benefits Management (PBM)</b></p><p>The infrastructure plan would delay a Trump administration regulation designed to limit the use of drug rebates. Drug rebates are typically money returned by manufacturers to drug benefit administrators in exchange for drug manufacturers getting priority status on prescriptions for medical insurance plans.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>(CVS.US), Cigna (CI.US), and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">United Health</a>Group (UNH.US) is the largest pharmaceutical benefits management company in the United States.</p><p>\"Fall out of favor\" field</p><p><b>Deficit hawks</b></p><p>The deal largely avoided tax increases, which were the result of a political compromise between Democrats who didn't want fuel tax increases and Republicans who didn't want corporate taxes. The new revenue to fund the bill comes from the legislative branch, which amounts to plundering money from the sofa cushions of Congress. But this is not a long-term solution for ongoing investing, and some expenses may not ultimately cover the total cost of the bill.</p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>The bill would increase IRS oversight of cryptocurrency trading, which the Joint Committee on Taxation had estimated would raise $28 billion over a decade. Industry groups had lobbied heavily against the rule, saying it was impossible to comply with the provision. To improve tax compliance, the bill would require more companies to report digital asset transactions to the IRS. According to industry groups, the problem is that some companies like cryptocurrency miners, for example, seem to be subject to the new law, but they don't have the technical ability to collect the information they are required to report.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle</b></p><p>Electric vehicles and charging stations would receive modest investment in the bill, but well below the $174 billion Biden proposed earlier this year. The bill includes $7.5 billion for charging, which will add charging locations for electric vehicle owners as they roam the country, and an additional $2.5 billion for electric bus investment. Electric vehicles are still likely to receive a larger investment later this year in a Democrat-only bill that would invest trillions of dollars into energy and the economy, paid for by tax increases on the wealthy and corporations.</p><p><b>Chemical contamination</b></p><p>One of the few tax increases in the bill is to reinstate the \"Superfund Polluter Tax,\" a tax that targets chemical companies cleaning up hazardous waste sites. The measure is estimated to raise $14.5 billion over a decade. The tax was established in 1980 and had expired in 1995. Currently, the scheme is taxed until 2031.</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical companies</b></p><p>The infrastructure package also includes a provision requiring drug manufacturers to refund Medicare funds for drug waste, that is, drugs discarded by doctors due to over-packaging. In 2019, Medicare paid more than $752 million for discarded drugs, according to U.S. government data. The data shows,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>(AMGN.US), Celgene Corp. And Bristol-Myers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMY\">Bristol-Myers Squibb</a>(BMY.US) produces drugs that cause more than $150 million in waste.</p><p><b>Clean Energy Producers</b></p><p>The bill does not include a $8 billion tax credit for clean energy manufacturers that has been a top priority for the Manchin and Biden administrations. Can be used by wind turbines,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>This grant, used by manufacturers of panels, geothermal energy equipment, fuel cells, electric vehicles and power grids, is touted by its supporters as a way to build a national clean energy manufacturing base in the United States. This subsidy appeared in the first recovery bill of Obama's administration, but the allocated $2.3 billion was quickly used up.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bipartisan infrastructure bill in the United States is here. How many industries will win or lose?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bipartisan infrastructure bill in the United States is here. How many industries will win or lose?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-03 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A $550 billion U.S. Senate plan to build U.S. infrastructure will benefit industries that are highly dependent on transportation, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSK\">Comcast</a>Wait for the company to be the biggest winner.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that after senators reached an agreement on the final text of the bill last weekend, they are currently debating the bill, and are expected to vote on the bill as soon as this week, so that the House of Representatives can adopt the bill after the September recess. act on the bill.</p><p>While freight companies, airlines and internet providers will receive a boost, the 2,702-page bill is not in favor of the crypto industry, drugmakers and electric vehicle makers. This bill represents the largest public works expenditure by the U.S. federal government in decades, and will also be a major milestone in U.S. President Joe Biden's agenda. However, for this plan, some people are happy and some people are sad in various industries, and the content of the plan is good or bad.</p><p>\"Favorite\" field</p><p><b>Transportation Company</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">United Parcel</a>Companies such as UPS.US, as major users of highways, will benefit from an investment of about $110 billion to improve roads and bridges in the United States. These few companies and hundreds of others using the highway system will directly benefit without having to bear the investment costs of corporate or gas tax increases. Republicans and Democrats agreed not to include the two companies in the agreement.</p><p><b>Airlines vs. Amtrak</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Group (AAL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Company (DAL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>Companies (LUV.US) will benefit from an approximately $25 billion bill that will plan to upgrade airports and reduce emissions and congestion. Like road users, these companies do not have to pay for these repairs directly. The plan also includes an investment of $66 billion, which will be used by Amtrak to upgrade the Northeast Corridor line and make new investments in railways and high-speed railways in other parts of the United States.</p><p><b>Commodity companies</b></p><p>All these roads, bridges, pipelines, wires and railways will require a lot of steel, cement, aluminum, copper, and the prices of many of these commodities have soared this year, including steel.</p><p><b>Internet service provider</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSA\">Comcast</a>And broadband providers such as Chartered Communications Corporation (CHTR.US) have become beneficiaries of infrastructure construction, because senators have refused to support the U.S. government's extensive subsidies to companies that have already established networks. The bill would provide U.S. subsidies to areas lacking essential services. Additionally, the bill appears to bring more customers to broadband providers as it expands emergency broadband programs that help consumers pay for services.</p><p>The bill also requires providers to offer low-cost broadband options, but includes a ban on government-set prices. Large suppliers are already offering such programs. Analysts have offered different views on the provision, with some arguing that there will be no material impact on suppliers and others arguing that companies may be at risk if the Biden administration tries to ensure that more customers have access to cheap packages.</p><p><b>Nuclear energy</b></p><p>Under the bill, struggling nuclear power reactors will receive $6 billion in funding, which could help prevent nuclear plants from collapsing in competition with natural gas and a growing supply of cheap electricity from renewable sources. Right<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOJA\">Southern Co</a>. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXC\">Axosaurus</a>The aid could be a good thing for uranium operators such as Electric Power (EXC.US) and uranium miners such as Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU.US).</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical Benefits Management (PBM)</b></p><p>The infrastructure plan would delay a Trump administration regulation designed to limit the use of drug rebates. Drug rebates are typically money returned by manufacturers to drug benefit administrators in exchange for drug manufacturers getting priority status on prescriptions for medical insurance plans.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>(CVS.US), Cigna (CI.US), and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">United Health</a>Group (UNH.US) is the largest pharmaceutical benefits management company in the United States.</p><p>\"Fall out of favor\" field</p><p><b>Deficit hawks</b></p><p>The deal largely avoided tax increases, which were the result of a political compromise between Democrats who didn't want fuel tax increases and Republicans who didn't want corporate taxes. The new revenue to fund the bill comes from the legislative branch, which amounts to plundering money from the sofa cushions of Congress. But this is not a long-term solution for ongoing investing, and some expenses may not ultimately cover the total cost of the bill.</p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>The bill would increase IRS oversight of cryptocurrency trading, which the Joint Committee on Taxation had estimated would raise $28 billion over a decade. Industry groups had lobbied heavily against the rule, saying it was impossible to comply with the provision. To improve tax compliance, the bill would require more companies to report digital asset transactions to the IRS. According to industry groups, the problem is that some companies like cryptocurrency miners, for example, seem to be subject to the new law, but they don't have the technical ability to collect the information they are required to report.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle</b></p><p>Electric vehicles and charging stations would receive modest investment in the bill, but well below the $174 billion Biden proposed earlier this year. The bill includes $7.5 billion for charging, which will add charging locations for electric vehicle owners as they roam the country, and an additional $2.5 billion for electric bus investment. Electric vehicles are still likely to receive a larger investment later this year in a Democrat-only bill that would invest trillions of dollars into energy and the economy, paid for by tax increases on the wealthy and corporations.</p><p><b>Chemical contamination</b></p><p>One of the few tax increases in the bill is to reinstate the \"Superfund Polluter Tax,\" a tax that targets chemical companies cleaning up hazardous waste sites. The measure is estimated to raise $14.5 billion over a decade. The tax was established in 1980 and had expired in 1995. Currently, the scheme is taxed until 2031.</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical companies</b></p><p>The infrastructure package also includes a provision requiring drug manufacturers to refund Medicare funds for drug waste, that is, drugs discarded by doctors due to over-packaging. In 2019, Medicare paid more than $752 million for discarded drugs, according to U.S. government data. The data shows,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>(AMGN.US), Celgene Corp. And Bristol-Myers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMY\">Bristol-Myers Squibb</a>(BMY.US) produces drugs that cause more than $150 million in waste.</p><p><b>Clean Energy Producers</b></p><p>The bill does not include a $8 billion tax credit for clean energy manufacturers that has been a top priority for the Manchin and Biden administrations. Can be used by wind turbines,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>This grant, used by manufacturers of panels, geothermal energy equipment, fuel cells, electric vehicles and power grids, is touted by its supporters as a way to build a national clean energy manufacturing base in the United States. This subsidy appeared in the first recovery bill of Obama's administration, but the allocated $2.3 billion was quickly used up.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146938180","content_text":"美国参议院一项斥资5500亿美元建设美国基础设施的计划将使高度依赖交通运输的行业受益，其中亚马逊、联邦快递和康卡斯特等公司高度将成最大的赢家。\n智通财经APP了解到，参议员们在上周末就该法案的最终文本达成一致后，目前正在就该法案进行辩论，预计最快本周就该法案进行投票，以便众议院在9月份休会后就该法案采取行动。\n尽管货运公司、航空公司和互联网供应商将得到提振，但这份2702页的法案并不利于加密货币行业、制药商和电动汽车制造商。这项法案代表了美国联邦政府几十年来最大规模的公共工程支出，也将是美国总统拜登议程的一个重要里程碑。但对于该项方案，各行业领域有人欢喜有人悲，计划的内容利好或利空的领域不尽相同。\n“得宠”领域\n运输公司\n亚马逊、联邦快递和联合包裹服务公司(UPS.US)等公司作为公路的主要使用者，将受益于一项约1100亿美元用于改善美国的道路和桥梁的投资。这几家公司和其他数百家使用高速公路系统的公司将直接受益，而不必承担企业税或汽油税上调带来的投资成本。共和党和民主党同意不将这两家公司纳入协议。\n航空公司与美国铁路公司\n美国航空集团(AAL.US)、达美航空公司(DAL.US)和西南航空公司(LUV.US)将从约250亿美元的法案中受益，该法案将计划升级机场以及减少排放和拥堵。和公路使用者一样，这些公司无需直接支付这些维修费用。该计划还包括660亿美元的投资，该项投资将用于美国铁路公司(Amtrak)升级东北走廊线路，以及对美国其他地区的铁路和高速铁路进行新的投资。\n大宗商品公司\n所有这些道路、桥梁、管道、电线和铁路将需要大量的钢铁、水泥、铝、铜，其中许多大宗商品的价格今年已经飙升，包括钢铁。\n互联网服务提供商\n康卡斯特和特许通讯公司(CHTR.US)等宽带提供商成为了基础设施建设的受益者，因为参议员们拒绝支持美国政府向已经建立网络的公司提供大量补贴。该法案将向缺乏基本服务的地区提供美国补贴。此外，该法案似乎将为宽带提供商带来更多的客户，因为其扩大了帮助消费者支付服务费用的紧急宽带项目。\n该法案还要求供应商提供低成本的宽带选项，但包括禁止政府设定价格。大型供应商已经在提供此类项目。分析人士们对这一条款提出了不同的看法，有的人认为对供应商没有实质性影响，其他人认为如果拜登政府试图确保更多客户能够获得廉价套餐，公司可能存在风险。\n核能源\n根据该法案，陷入困境的核电反应堆商将获得60亿美元的资助，这可能有助于防止核电站在与天然气和越来越多的可再生能源廉价发电的竞争中倒闭。对Southern Co.和爱克斯龙电力(EXC.US)等铀矿运营商以及Energy Fuels, Inc.(UUUU.US)等铀矿企业来说，上述援助可能是一件好事。\n药品福利管理(PBM)\n这项基础设施计划将推迟特朗普政府的一项监管规定，该规定旨在限制药品回扣的使用。药品回扣通常是制造商向药品福利管理人员返还的资金，以换取制药商在医保计划的处方上获得优先地位。CVS健康(CVS.US)、信诺(CI.US)和联合健康集团(UNH.US)是美国最大的药品福利管理公司。\n“失宠”领域\n赤字鹰派\n协议在很大程度上避开了增税，这是不希望增加燃油税的民主党人和不希望增加企业税的共和党人达成政治妥协的结果。为该法案提供资金的新收入来自立法部门，相当于从国会的沙发垫里搜刮钱。但这对于持续投资来说，不是一个长期的解决方案，且一些支出可能最终无法覆盖账单的总成本。\n加密货币\n该法案将增加美国国税局对加密货币交易的监管，美国税收联合委员会(Joint Committee on Taxation)曾估计，加密货币交易将在十年内筹集280亿美元。行业团体曾大力游说反对这一规定，称不可能遵守该条款。为了提高税收合规性，该法案将要求更多的公司向IRS报告数字资产交易。根据行业组织的说法，问题在于，一些像比如加密货币矿工的公司，似乎会受到新法律的约束，但他们没有技术能力收集他们被要求报告的信息。\n电动汽车\n电动汽车和充电站将在法案中得到适度的投资，但远低于拜登今年早些时候提出的1740亿美元。该法案包括75亿美元用于充电，这将为电动车车主在全国漫游时增加充电地点，另外还有25亿美元用于电动公交车投资。今年晚些时候，在一项只针对民主党的法案中，电动汽车仍有可能获得更大规模的投资，该法案将向能源和经济领域投资数万亿美元，由对富人和企业增税来支付。\n化学污染\n法案中为数不多的增税措施之一是重新恢复“超级基金污染者税”，这是一项针对化学公司清理危险废物场所的税收。据估计，该措施将在十年内筹集145亿美元。这项税收于1980年设立，曾在1995年到期。目前，该计划将征税至2031年。\n制药公司\n该基础设施方案还包括一项条款，要求制药商为药物浪费，即医生因过度包装而丢弃的药物，向退还联邦医疗保险资金。根据美国政府数据，2019年，联邦医疗保险为被丢弃的药物支付了超过7.52亿美元。数据显示，安进(AMGN.US)、Celgene Corp.和百时美施贵宝(BMY.US)生产的药物造成了超过1.5亿美元的浪费。\n清洁能源生产商\n该法案中不包括对清洁能源制造商的80亿美元税收抵免，而该项税收抵免一直是曼钦和拜登政府的首要任务。能够被风能涡轮机、太阳能电池板、地热能源设备、燃料电池、电动汽车、电网的制造商所使用的这一补助，被其支持者吹捧为在美国建立一个国家清洁能源制造基地的一种方式。该项补助曾出现在奥巴马执政时期的第一个复苏法案中，但拨出的23亿美元很快就用完了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173751135,"gmtCreate":1626689639827,"gmtModify":1703763391600,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173751135","repostId":"1180989534","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153465560,"gmtCreate":1625043603550,"gmtModify":1703850768115,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153465560","repostId":"2147894632","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881911500,"gmtCreate":1631284760100,"gmtModify":1676530520376,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881911500","repostId":"1144889232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897580564,"gmtCreate":1628942238258,"gmtModify":1676529897402,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897580564","repostId":"1121247469","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895476976,"gmtCreate":1628770239095,"gmtModify":1676529848211,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895476976","repostId":"2158232300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899681916,"gmtCreate":1628178014635,"gmtModify":1703502732492,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why like that ??","listText":"Why like that ??","text":"Why like that ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899681916","repostId":"2157489215","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175741447,"gmtCreate":1627050514689,"gmtModify":1703483383620,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175741447","repostId":"2153602247","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153602247","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627027542,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153602247?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 16:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face \"significant adjustment risk\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153602247","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"虽然标普500指数过去一个月创下新高，但市场广度指标（Market Breadth）恶化已对美股发出警报，显示美股或面临“重大调整风险”。\n摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最近研","content":"<p>Although the S&P 500 index hit a new high in the past month, the deterioration of the Market Breadth indicator (Market Breadth) has sounded an alarm to U.S. stocks, indicating that U.S. stocks may face \"significant correction risks.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief equity strategist Michael Wilson said in a recent research report that the current U.S. stock breadth indicator is the lowest in the past month. Compared with the number of stocks that hit a 52-week high, stocks that hit a 52-week low are increasing at a faster rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29167088202da4665dc02dc3eab60b3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of stocks currently above the S&P 50-day moving average is less than 50%, which is slightly higher than the previous low of 30%, but still low.<b>This suggests that some large constituent stocks may have made a major contribution to the rise of the S&P index, while the stock market did not rise across the board.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738e2ac698d44c189e9629ab7d15146f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wilson said that for indexes with lower quality constituents, the situation is much worse.</p><p>In addition, the report shows that weighted relative to market capitalization,<b>The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has experienced a sharp correction, which can draw the same conclusion as the deterioration of market breadth indicators.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccdb21dd8b2aad9077a296ffcb0a17c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Cyclical and defensive stocks have also diverged, and the market is increasingly beginning to shift from the former to the latter. Wilson said this shows that U.S. stocks are entering a more fragile period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0294e676dd9fad5a953972f4f51349d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In addition, in terms of P/E, Wilson pointed out that during the mid-cycle transition, forward P/E typically fall by 20%; Up to now, P/E has only dropped by 5%, while forward earnings have increased by nearly 20%. So so far, the S&P 500 is up about 15%.</p><p>Wilson believes that there are various signs that U.S. stocks are currently facing the risk of major adjustments. \"P/E should start to fall sharply in the next few months, bringing the S&P index closer to our year-end target of 3,900 points\", which will mean a 10% downside room.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face \"significant adjustment risk\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face \"significant adjustment risk\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 16:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Although the S&P 500 index hit a new high in the past month, the deterioration of the Market Breadth indicator (Market Breadth) has sounded an alarm to U.S. stocks, indicating that U.S. stocks may face \"significant correction risks.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief equity strategist Michael Wilson said in a recent research report that the current U.S. stock breadth indicator is the lowest in the past month. Compared with the number of stocks that hit a 52-week high, stocks that hit a 52-week low are increasing at a faster rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29167088202da4665dc02dc3eab60b3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of stocks currently above the S&P 50-day moving average is less than 50%, which is slightly higher than the previous low of 30%, but still low.<b>This suggests that some large constituent stocks may have made a major contribution to the rise of the S&P index, while the stock market did not rise across the board.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738e2ac698d44c189e9629ab7d15146f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wilson said that for indexes with lower quality constituents, the situation is much worse.</p><p>In addition, the report shows that weighted relative to market capitalization,<b>The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has experienced a sharp correction, which can draw the same conclusion as the deterioration of market breadth indicators.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccdb21dd8b2aad9077a296ffcb0a17c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Cyclical and defensive stocks have also diverged, and the market is increasingly beginning to shift from the former to the latter. Wilson said this shows that U.S. stocks are entering a more fragile period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0294e676dd9fad5a953972f4f51349d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In addition, in terms of P/E, Wilson pointed out that during the mid-cycle transition, forward P/E typically fall by 20%; Up to now, P/E has only dropped by 5%, while forward earnings have increased by nearly 20%. So so far, the S&P 500 is up about 15%.</p><p>Wilson believes that there are various signs that U.S. stocks are currently facing the risk of major adjustments. \"P/E should start to fall sharply in the next few months, bringing the S&P index closer to our year-end target of 3,900 points\", which will mean a 10% downside room.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636173\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636173","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153602247","content_text":"虽然标普500指数过去一个月创下新高，但市场广度指标（Market Breadth）恶化已对美股发出警报，显示美股或面临“重大调整风险”。\n摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最近研报中表示，当前美股广度指标为近一个月最低，相比创下52周新高的股票数量，创52周新低的股票以更快速度增加。\n\n同时，目前位于标普50日均线上方的股票数量低于50%，虽略高于此前30%的低点，但仍处低位。这表明，部分大型成分股可能对标普指数上升做了主要贡献，而股市并没有全面上升。\n\nWilson表示，而对于成分股质量较低的指数而言，情况还要糟糕得多。\n此外，报告显示，相对于市值加权，等权重的标普500指数已经出现大幅回调，也能与市场广度指标恶化得出相同结论。\n\n周期性和防御性股票也出现分化，市场愈发开始由前者向后者转换。Wilson称，这表明美股正进入一个更加脆弱的时期。\n\n此外，市盈率方面，Wilson指出，在周期中期过渡期间，远期市盈率通常会下降20%；而到当前市盈率只下降了5%，远期收益却上涨了近20%。因此目前为止，标普500指数上涨了约15%。\nWilson认为，种种迹象表明，美股当前面临重大调整风险，“市盈率应该会在未来几个月开始大幅下跌，使标普指数更接近我们的年终目标位3900点”，这将意味着10%的下跌空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142532578,"gmtCreate":1626160039994,"gmtModify":1703754532657,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142532578","repostId":"1126789765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126789765","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1626133747,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126789765?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 07:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How will the Federal Reserve take its position at its July meeting? Watch Tonight's CPI","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126789765","media":"Wind万得","summary":"今晚美国公布的CPI数据至关重要，这个数据在一定程度上将显示近期的价格大幅上涨是一个暂时现象，还是通胀压力会更持久。如果今晚通胀超市场预期，那么美联储提前收紧预期可能又会卷土重来；反之市场对美联储收紧的恐慌会继续减弱。市场预计6月份CPI环比增幅将从5月份的0.6%和4月份的0.8%降至0.5%，并预计CPI年率将从5月份的5%降至4.9%。美联储的通胀目标是基于美国商务部的个人消费支出价格指数，该指数往往略低于CPI。","content":"<p>The CPI data released by the United States tonight is crucial. This data will show to some extent whether the recent sharp price increase is a temporary phenomenon or whether inflationary pressures will last longer. If inflation exceeds market expectations tonight, the Fed's early tightening expectations may come back; On the contrary, the market's panic about Fed tightening will continue to weaken.</p><p>In the past six months, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) has nearly tripled, rising from 1.7% in January to 5% in May. Core inflation rose from 1.4% to 3.8%. The market expects the month-on-month CPI growth to decrease to 0.5% in June from 0.6% in May and 0.8% in April, and expects the annual CPI rate to decrease to 4.9% from 5% in May.</p><p>Over the past few months, the Federal Reserve has managed to reduce the sensitivity of markets to inflation. The effort began last September when the Federal Reserve adopted an average inflation rate for future policy guidance and insisted that the current surge was temporary. But there is an important and unresolved question, how much inflation will the economic problems caused by the epidemic cause? The answer to this question is perhaps difficult to judge until the base effect completely disappears in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Some economists in the market believe that the strong economic recovery after the epidemic will drive prices up rapidly for some time. They argue that markets should brace for the highest level of inflation in decades. If economists' forecasts are correct, Fed officials may have to raise interest rates earlier or more than they expected to control inflation.</p><p>Some surveys show that economists believe that inflation will grow at an average annual rate of 2.58% from 2021 to 2023, which will reach the level of 1993. \"We are now in a transition phase,\" said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics LLC. \"We are transitioning to a period where inflation and interest rates are higher than in the past 20 years.\"</p><p>\"Expect inflation to surge longer than the Fed previously expected,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. \"The Fed is now likely to rate hike in the first half of 2023, although some Fed officials will take action as soon as possible.\"</p><p>Some analysts also worry that the Fed may be moving too slowly. \"The danger is that monetary authorities are not keeping up,\" said Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. \"I'm not saying hyperinflation is coming, just that a lot has happened last year and overall prices are increasing faster than they have been in the past five or 10 years.\"</p><p>With the economic recovery accelerating, the last released U.S. consumer price index continued to rise rapidly in May, surging 5% from a year earlier, setting the highest annual inflation rate in nearly 13 years, also reflecting surging demand and labor and material shortages.</p><p>The higher prices reflect strong consumer demand as widespread vaccinations, easing business restrictions, a trillion-dollar federal pandemic relief plan and ample household savings drive. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.4% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, adjusted for seasonally factors. Economists expect the U.S. economy to grow at an annualized rate of 8.1% in the second quarter, which will be the best year of economic growth since the early 1980s.</p><p>Policymakers are also paying close attention to recent inflation data. Price pressures were very weak in a year at the height of the pandemic. As the Federal Reserve and some other policymakers continue to take fiscal and monetary policy measures to support the economy, whether the rise in inflation is only temporary is a key question for the U.S. economy and financial markets.</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects inflation to rise temporarily this year. A sustained sharp rise in inflation could force the central bank to tighten its accommodative monetary policy earlier or take a more aggressive response later to meet its average inflation target of 2%.</p><p>The Fed's inflation target is based on the U.S. Department of Commerce's personal consumption expenditures price index, which tends to be slightly below the CPI. The Fed has said it will keep interest rates near zero until personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation averages 2% and full employment is achieved.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the Federal Reserve take its position at its July meeting? Watch Tonight's CPI</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow will the Federal Reserve take its position at its July meeting? Watch Tonight's CPI\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 07:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The CPI data released by the United States tonight is crucial. This data will show to some extent whether the recent sharp price increase is a temporary phenomenon or whether inflationary pressures will last longer. If inflation exceeds market expectations tonight, the Fed's early tightening expectations may come back; On the contrary, the market's panic about Fed tightening will continue to weaken.</p><p>In the past six months, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) has nearly tripled, rising from 1.7% in January to 5% in May. Core inflation rose from 1.4% to 3.8%. The market expects the month-on-month CPI growth to decrease to 0.5% in June from 0.6% in May and 0.8% in April, and expects the annual CPI rate to decrease to 4.9% from 5% in May.</p><p>Over the past few months, the Federal Reserve has managed to reduce the sensitivity of markets to inflation. The effort began last September when the Federal Reserve adopted an average inflation rate for future policy guidance and insisted that the current surge was temporary. But there is an important and unresolved question, how much inflation will the economic problems caused by the epidemic cause? The answer to this question is perhaps difficult to judge until the base effect completely disappears in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Some economists in the market believe that the strong economic recovery after the epidemic will drive prices up rapidly for some time. They argue that markets should brace for the highest level of inflation in decades. If economists' forecasts are correct, Fed officials may have to raise interest rates earlier or more than they expected to control inflation.</p><p>Some surveys show that economists believe that inflation will grow at an average annual rate of 2.58% from 2021 to 2023, which will reach the level of 1993. \"We are now in a transition phase,\" said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics LLC. \"We are transitioning to a period where inflation and interest rates are higher than in the past 20 years.\"</p><p>\"Expect inflation to surge longer than the Fed previously expected,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. \"The Fed is now likely to rate hike in the first half of 2023, although some Fed officials will take action as soon as possible.\"</p><p>Some analysts also worry that the Fed may be moving too slowly. \"The danger is that monetary authorities are not keeping up,\" said Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. \"I'm not saying hyperinflation is coming, just that a lot has happened last year and overall prices are increasing faster than they have been in the past five or 10 years.\"</p><p>With the economic recovery accelerating, the last released U.S. consumer price index continued to rise rapidly in May, surging 5% from a year earlier, setting the highest annual inflation rate in nearly 13 years, also reflecting surging demand and labor and material shortages.</p><p>The higher prices reflect strong consumer demand as widespread vaccinations, easing business restrictions, a trillion-dollar federal pandemic relief plan and ample household savings drive. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.4% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, adjusted for seasonally factors. Economists expect the U.S. economy to grow at an annualized rate of 8.1% in the second quarter, which will be the best year of economic growth since the early 1980s.</p><p>Policymakers are also paying close attention to recent inflation data. Price pressures were very weak in a year at the height of the pandemic. As the Federal Reserve and some other policymakers continue to take fiscal and monetary policy measures to support the economy, whether the rise in inflation is only temporary is a key question for the U.S. economy and financial markets.</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects inflation to rise temporarily this year. A sustained sharp rise in inflation could force the central bank to tighten its accommodative monetary policy earlier or take a more aggressive response later to meet its average inflation target of 2%.</p><p>The Fed's inflation target is based on the U.S. Department of Commerce's personal consumption expenditures price index, which tends to be slightly below the CPI. The Fed has said it will keep interest rates near zero until personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation averages 2% and full employment is achieved.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126789765","content_text":"今晚美国公布的CPI数据至关重要，这个数据在一定程度上将显示近期的价格大幅上涨是一个暂时现象，还是通胀压力会更持久。如果今晚通胀超市场预期，那么美联储提前收紧预期可能又会卷土重来；反之市场对美联储收紧的恐慌会继续减弱。\n在过去的六个月里，美国消费者价格指数(CPI)几乎翻了三倍，从一月份的1.7%上升到五月份的5%。核心通胀从1.4%上升到3.8%。市场预计6月份CPI环比增幅将从5月份的0.6%和4月份的0.8%降至0.5%，并预计CPI年率将从5月份的5%降至4.9%。\n过去几个月，美联储成功地降低了市场对通胀的敏感性。这一努力始于去年9月美联储对未来政策引导采用了平均通胀率，并坚持认为当前的飙升是暂时的。但是有一个重要且尚未解决的问题是，疫情导致的经济问题造成会造成多少通胀?这个问题的答案在第四季度基数效应完全消失之前也许很难判断。\n市场一些经济学家认为疫情后强劲的经济复苏将在一段时间内推动物价快速上涨。他们认为，市场应该做好准备，迎接几十年来最高的通胀水平。如果经济学家的预测是正确的，美联储官员可能不得不提前或超过他们预期的上调利率，以控制通胀。\n一些调查显示经济学家认为从2021年到2023年通胀平均年增长率为2.58%，这个水平将达到1993年的水平。\"我们现在正处于一个过渡阶段，\" Naroff Economics LLC首席经济学家Joel Naroff说，\"我们正过渡到通胀率和利率高于过去20年的时期。\"\nGrant Thornton首席经济学家黛安•斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示:“预计通胀飙升的时间会比美联储此前预计的更长。”“美联储现在可能会在2023年上半年加息，尽管一些美联储官员会尽快采取行动。”\n一些分析师也担心美联储的行动可能过于缓慢。American Chemistry Council首席经济学家凯文•斯威夫特(KevinSwift)表示:“危险在于，货币当局跟不上形势。”“我并不是说恶性通货膨胀即将到来，只是说去年发生了很多事情，整体价格的增长趋势比过去5年或10年更快。”\n随着经济复苏的加快，上次公布的美国5月份消费者价格指数继续快速上涨，较上年同期飙升5%，创下近13年来的最高年通胀率，也反映出需求激增以及劳动力和材料短缺。\n价格上涨反映出，随着广泛接种疫苗、放宽商业限制、数万亿美元的联邦大流行救援计划和充足的家庭储蓄推动了强劲的消费者需求。经季节性因素调整后，美国第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算增长6.4%。经济学家预计，第二季度美国经济折合成年率将增长8.1%，这将是上世纪80年代初以来经济增长最好的一年。\n政策制定者也非常关注最近的通胀数据。在疫情最严重时期的一年里，价格压力非常疲弱。随着美联储和其它一些政策制定者继续采取财政和货币政策措施支持经济后，通胀上升是否只是暂时的，是美国经济和金融市场的一个关键问题。\n美联储预计目前还是预计今年通货膨胀率将暂时上升。通货膨胀率的持续大幅上升可能迫使央行提前收紧其宽松货币政策，或者晚些时候采取更激进的应对措施，以实现2%的平均通货膨胀目标。\n美联储的通胀目标是基于美国商务部的个人消费支出价格指数，该指数往往略低于CPI。美联储曾表示，在个人消费支出(PCE)通胀率达到平均2%并实现充分就业之前，它将把利率维持在接近于零的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155692965,"gmtCreate":1625408831757,"gmtModify":1703741407142,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can rest lo","listText":"Can rest lo","text":"Can rest lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155692965","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 5 (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6 (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a legal national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4th every year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as grand as religious and folk festivals. Before the festival, ordinary people clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 5 (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6 (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a legal national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4th every year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as grand as religious and folk festivals. Before the festival, ordinary people clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161169285,"gmtCreate":1623911456347,"gmtModify":1703823322849,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thx ur information&nbsp;","listText":"Thx ur information&nbsp;","text":"Thx ur information","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161169285","repostId":"1127282568","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127282568","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"华泰策略戴康团队报告发布及交流平台，致力于最前瞻&最接地气的策略研究，欢迎关注戴康的策略世界！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"戴康的策略世界","id":"1056171073","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cafb9373f37472a90f0196dbde5ddff"},"pubTimestamp":1623910486,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127282568?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 14:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"GF Strategy: Looking at A-share \"hot stocks\" from FAANG","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127282568","media":"戴康的策略世界","summary":"报告摘要\n引言：微观结构调整后，如何看A股热门股行情的持续性？\n短期来看，A股“微观结构”修复行至半程但仍未达健康状态，热门股行情仍受掣肘。中长期来看，中国高质量发展将强化产业结构稳定性，消费/科技制","content":"<p><b>Summary of the report</b></p><p><b>Introduction: After the microstructure adjustment, how to see the sustainability of the A-share popular stock market?</b></p><p>In the short term, the repair of the \"microstructure\" of A-shares is halfway through, but it has not yet reached a healthy state, and the market of popular stocks is still constrained. In the medium and long term, China's high-quality development will strengthen the stability of the industrial structure, consumption/technology manufacturing performance (profit margin) is expected to continue to grow at a high rate, and the popular stock market will also continue in the medium term.</p><p><b>Why do U.S. stocks FAANG \"hold groups\" for a long time, while popular A-share stocks switch once every 3-5 years?</b></p><p>U.S. stocks and FAANGT are basically driven by profits, which makes the popular stock market sustainable; A-share leading (industry leading index) is mainly driven by valuation, which partly leads to the unsustainable market of popular stocks.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks FAANG \"grouping\" are sustainable: performance maintains high growth.</b></p><p>Since 2000, FAANGT has continued to obtain excess returns, and there have been periodic corrections during this period, but strong profits (expectations) will bring about a significant rebound. We judge that the high growth of FAANGT's performance stems from: (mobile) Internet dividends, overseas business expansion, and share repurchases to enhance EPS.</p><p><b>Historically, the background of the unsustainable \"grouping\" of popular A-share stocks: the driving force is constantly switching, and the high performance growth is unsustainable.</b></p><p>China is a catch-up economy, and its industrial structure will switch every 3-5 years. There are very few A-share companies with continuous high growth. Judging from the dismantling of ROE DuPont, the driving force of corporate profitability has successively switched from turnover rate to leverage ratio to profit margin, resulting in the performance advantages of different sectors \"trade-off\", and popular stocks are also in cycle/consumer manufacturing/technology/Constantly switching in consumer services.</p><p><b>The background of the sustainable era of \"grouping\" of U.S. stocks: The United States is a \"leading\" economy with a stable industrial structure and sustained high growth in corporate profits (profit margin-driven).</b></p><p>Since 2000, the industrial structure of the United States has been dominated by the technology Internet, which has created the FAANGT market. A stable industrial structure also brings a stable US stock structure. The high proportion of institutional investors in the United States will also strengthen the \"grouping\" market of popular stocks. At the same time, the leading U.S. stock market has strong profitability, increasing industry concentration, and continuously loose liquidity environment, which is also consolidating the sustainability of FAANGT's profitability/\"grouping\".</p><p><b>Changes in the background of the times have accelerated the transformation of A-shares into American stocks: China has gradually turned to a \"leading\" economy, the stability of its industrial structure has increased, and corporate profitability (profit margin-driven) will continue to improve.</b></p><p>The proportion of China's consumption and science and technology industrial structure is gradually rising. From the perspective of market value structure, the popular stock \"group\" industry has improved the market value structure of consumption/technology; With the advancement of the registration system reform, the profit structure of A-share consumption/technology will also be optimized. Chinese investors are also accelerating institutionalization, and passive investment will also strengthen the market of popular stocks. At the same time, the increase in leading concentration and the downward trend of discount rate will also consolidate the performance and valuation foundation of popular stocks \"Baotuan\".</p><p><b>ROE DuPont dismantling looks at the direction of \"grouping\" of popular A-share stocks: consumption/technology manufacturing.</b></p><p>Drawing lessons from the experience of FAANGT, profit margins drive the long-term \"grouping\" of popular stocks. High-quality development/mixed finance/supply and demand gap, A-shares will start a new round of profit margin recovery cycle. Compared with China, the United States/Japan/South Korea, the profit margin of China's consumer industry (food/medicine/durable consumer goods, etc.) is at a relatively high level and will continue to benefit from the upgrade of mass consumption; The profit margin of the technology manufacturing industry (semiconductor/software/equipment manufacturing, etc.) is relatively low, and it will also benefit from the upgrade of high-end manufacturing.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The epidemic has repeated, the economy has fallen short of expectations, liquidity tightening, and Sino-US relations are uncertain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0151426b5876b0af086b434beae8c9\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"1300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><b>After the microstructure adjustment, how to see the sustainability of the A-share popular stock market?</b></p><p><b>In the short term, the market of popular A-share stocks is still constrained: the repair of \"microstructure\" is halfway through, but it has not yet reached a healthy state.</b>On February 24, we released \"Diffusion Upgrade\" and the whole market took the lead in putting forward: \"There is something wrong with the market microstructure\", and continued to release a series of reports: \"Microstructure Deterioration-History and Impact\", \"How to Observe the Market Microstructure\", \"From the Microstructure Looking at U.S. Debt and A Shares\", \"Causes and Prospects of Microstructure Deterioration\".<b>At present, the \"microstructure\" repair of A-shares is halfway through but has not yet reached a healthy state</b>--(1) The proportion of the turnover of the top 5% stocks in all A shares has dropped from the high of 49.7% in February to the current 42.1%, but it is still higher than the central 36.3% in 17 years. (2) The Mao Index has a maximum pullback/retracement of 23.8% from the high point in February, but it has rebounded since the end of March (the overall pullback/retracement since the high point of the Mao Index is 15.3%, and the wind all-A pullback/retracement is 5.2%). (3) At present, the valuation of A-share popular stocks (A150 index) is still at a high level of +1 times standard deviation of the average since the large inflow of northbound funds at the end of 2016, while the valuation of A-share non-financial stocks excluding A150 is still below the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337c99ebe443ec3a4bc4ddb2aad814e\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e59e6f51de5fdb452a7fb7351f7c5c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium and long-term dimension: Why has the FAANG of US stocks been \"grouped\" for a long time since 2000, while the popular A-share stocks switch every 3-5 years? The United States is a \"leading\" economy, and its stable industrial structure and sustained high growth have brought about long-term FAANG grouping, while China is a \"catch-up\" economy. The high performance growth of popular A-share stocks is difficult to sustain, and it will happen every 3-5 years. Switch once</b>--The United States is a \"leading\" economy with a stable industrial structure and is in the upper reaches of the global \"value chain\". Enterprises can continuously and steadily earn high profit margins. At the same time, American enterprises also benefit from (mobile) Internet dividends, overseas business expansion and share repurchase to enhance EPS and further stabilize the profitability of enterprises. China is a \"catch-up\" economy, and its industrial structure continues to change (turnover rate driven to leverage ratio driven to profit margin driven). It is difficult for corporate profits to sustain high growth. Most companies maintain high performance growth in about 3-5 years.</p><p><b>We judge that China's high-quality development is gradually shifting from a \"catch-up\" economy to a \"leading\" economy, the stability of the industrial structure is enhanced, and the \"grouping\" market of consumption/technology manufacturing with continuous improvement in profit margins is expected to continue.</b>The proportion of China's consumption and science and technology industrial structure is gradually rising. With the advancement of the registration system reform, the profit structure of the A-share consumption/technology manufacturing industry will also be optimized. Chinese investors are also accelerating institutionalization, and passive investment will also strengthen the market of popular stocks. At the same time, the long-term trend of increasing industry concentration and downward discount rate will also consolidate the performance and valuation foundation of popular stocks. Drawing lessons from FAANG's experience, profit margin drive is an important reason for the long-term \"grouping\" of popular stocks. The \"hybrid\" finance/\"domestic cycle\"/high-end manufacturing upgrade will start a longer profit margin recovery cycle in China's consumer/technology manufacturing industry. Long-term \"grouping\" direction of A-shares: mass consumption and high-end manufacturing with potential improvement in profit margins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365346aa80701cbc47c4036f934acb1d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1</b></p><p><b>Why do U.S. stocks FAANG \"hold groups\" for a long time, while popular A-share stocks switch once every 3-5 years? 1.1</b><b>Since 2000, U.S. stocks FAANG have continued to \"hold groups\"</b></p><p><b>Since 2000, FAANG, a popular US stock, has continued to outperform the Nasdaq index.</b>The FAANGT (FAANG + Tesla) index has shown a steady upward trend since 2000. FAANG has also continued to obtain excess returns relative to the Nasdaq index, with a pullback/retracement in only 10-13 years. Over the past 14 years, the FAANG index has continued to dominate both absolute and relative returns (after the outbreak of the epidemic, the FAANG index has absolute returns, but the relative returns are not very significant).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ed810c2853c8fc10d4f21426283790\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.2</b><b>Popular A-share stocks switch every 3-5 years: Five Golden Flowers-> Real Estate Infrastructure-> Consumer Manufacturing-> TMT-> Consumer Services/Technology</b></p><p><b>Since 2000, the popular A-share stocks have switched roughly 6 times, basically every 3-5 years, there will be a rotation of popular stocks.</b>A-share popular stocks have been iterating continuously in the past 20 years, and each round of popular stock market basically reflects the distinct background of the times at that time-(1) China joined the WTO in early 2000, and the foreign trade economy brought the \"five golden flowers\" market represented by coal, steel and non-ferrous metals; (2) After the financial crisis in 2008, the \"4 trillion\" fiscal stimulus plan brought about the \"leverage\" market of real estate and infrastructure; (3) In the 10-12-year profit downward cycle, the profitability of consumer manufacturing industry surpassed that of cyclical products, leading the market of consumer stocks of liquor, automobiles and medicine; (4) The outbreak of extension mergers and acquisitions in 13-15 years has brought about the market of technology stocks represented by computers and electronics; (5) In the past 16 years, with the further increase of industry concentration, blue-chip leading stocks such as liquor and home appliances have once again become the \"new favorites\" of the market; (6) In 2019, the \"financial supply-side reform\" reduced the financing cost of entities, and the discount rate declined and Sino-US trade friction was superimposed. Independent and controllable sectors such as semiconductors and medicine continued to be sought after by the market.<b>It can be seen that since China is a typical catch-up economy, as the industrial structure continues to change, the hot stocks in the capital market will continue to switch, which to a certain extent will bring about the core difference between Chinese and American hot stocks: the FAANG market in the United States can last for up to 20 years, while China's hot stock market will face a \"reshuffle\" every 3-5 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdce0d72cce6ad1925aa8e25d6f965c9\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.3</b><b>U.S. stock FAANG is mainly driven by profit, and A-share popular stocks are mainly driven by valuation</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks as a whole are driven by profits, while A shares as a whole are basically driven by valuation after 2010.</b>We dismantled the driving factors of the annual rise and fall of U.S. stocks (Nasdaq Index) and A-shares (Shanghai Composite Index) in the past 20 years, and we can see that: (1) The annual yield of U.S. stocks is driven by profit in most years, only driven by valuation in a few years (only 2003, 2009, 13, 17 and 20 years); (2) The annual rate of return of A shares was basically driven by profit before 2010 (the era of incremental economy), but after 2010, it was basically driven by valuation (the era of stock economy).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56f8f0615890503d63bb8e0af95772a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. stock FAANG is mainly driven by profit, while A-share leaders are mainly driven by valuation.</b>We further dismantled the driving factors of the annual rise and fall of U.S. stock FAANG (& Tesla) and A-share leaders (industry leading indexes), and reached similar conclusions: (1) U.S. stock FAANG is mainly driven by profit, and only driven by valuation in some years. Driven (2009, 12, 15 and 20 years); (2) A-share leading (industry leading index) is basically driven by valuation (industry leading index has only had both valuation and profit data since 18 years).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3044a364cb1090bd004a3e7b519f1744\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2</b></p><p><b>U.S. stock FAANG \"grouping\" is sustainable: performance maintains high growth 2.1</b><b>Since 2000, FAANG has been \"together\" for a long time, but there has also been a phased decline</b></p><p><b>There have been several periodic \"common\" corrections in the history of U.S. stocks FAANG (& Tesla).</b>Since 2000, FAANG and Tesla have had 8 common large-scale \"common\" corrections (that is, most companies have pulled back together for common reasons in the market in some periods of time): for example, the bursting of the \"dot com bubble\" in 20 years led to 2 common callbacks; The 2008 financial crisis also led to a very significant common correction; After the Federal Reserve started the shrinking balance sheet process in 2014, FAANG (& Tesla) also experienced several significant common corrections in the following years. In February-March of the global spread of the epidemic in 2020 and the subsequent September, FAANG (& Tesla) also experienced a relatively significant common correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e54989a68e5891a1506aebc5df4bc3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to \"common\" pullbacks, some FAANG (& Tesla) stocks also experienced \"individual\" pullbacks.</b>FAANG (& Tesla) has a total of 13 \"personalized\" callbacks (i.e. individual callbacks in which only individual companies occur based on the company's own logic in a specific time period). Among them, Amazon and Netflix have relatively many \"personalized\" separate callbacks.<b>From the data point of view, FAANG (& Tesla) 's \"common\" callback is generally larger than the \"individual\" callback. It can be seen that FAANG's \"grouping\" shows strong consistency, and the periodic fluctuations (callbacks) of individual companies have less impact on the overall situation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c7ef2086dff2221e28534d7a2516dd1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/851f002c5097566805d0e7eba9b31798\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a61596ec1aa03236187e5d188fa42290\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2</b><b>The cause of \"holding a group\": sustained high growth in performance</b></p><p><b>FAANG (& Tesla) Each \"common\" pullback is followed by a strong earnings repair (expected) that brings a significant rebound. The marginal deterioration of the macro environment, the \"common\" correction of popular U.S. stocks</b>--Negative events such as the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet that began in 2014, and the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 have had a huge impact on the global economy. Global stock markets, including popular U.S. stocks, have experienced a general correction.<b>Strong Earnings Repair Expectations Bring Significant Rebound in FAANG (& Tesla)</b>--FAANG (& Tesla) has experienced many \"common\" corrections since 2000, but after each correction, the stock price will rebound quickly and hit new highs. We summarized the reasons for the rebound of FAANG (& Tesla), and we can see that the relatively strong profitability is the main driving force.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73409c19efd755023cca3e4c73392150\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>We judge that the strong profitability of FAANG (& Tesla) mainly comes from: (mobile) Internet dividends, overseas business expansion, share repurchases to enhance EPS--</b></p><p><b>(1) (Mobile) Internet dividend: Internet dividend since 2000 and mobile Internet dividend since 2010, continuously optimize FAANG (& Tesla) profit (expected).</b>Since the 1990s, the United States has occupied the technological high point of information technology and continues to enjoy the dividends of the Internet. After the bursting of the \"Internet bubble\", the profitability of some Internet companies (Google, Amazon, etc.) has been continuously verified, and they have gradually become the \"group\" of the market. \"focus; The mobile Internet era began in 2009-11, pushing FAANG's profits into an accelerated upward period. Technology stocks with R&D advantages have experienced big explosions in 2009-11 and 2018-19, especially FAANG's net profit growth has been strong: December 2009-December 2011 and March 2018-March 2019, FAANGT's net profit attributable to the parent company rose by more than 200% and 50% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf42f7dd0cd3e74a8285c64e126fcf3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(2) Overseas business expansion: FAANG continues to expand overseas markets, and the proportion of overseas revenue is increasing year by year.</b>Since the listing of FAANG and Tesla, the overall proportion of overseas revenue has gradually increased from 0% (except Google and Facebook, which are about 30%) to 50-60%. The global layout has brought continued strong profitability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1348f2d3c5107dfb1d278420a1fbb5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(3) Share repurchase: Further enhance FAANG (& Tesla) EPS when the profit level is higher.</b>Corporate buybacks will reduce the number of shares. Under the (mobile) Internet dividend, FAANG (& Tesla) 's profitability continues to improve, and share buybacks can further strengthen the EPS of these companies. At the same time, share repurchases will also boost investor confidence to a certain extent and enhance the stability of FAANG (& Tesla) 's stock price. Judging from the year-on-year change trend of FAANG's repurchase amount over the years and the trend of EPS, it is relatively close. The repurchase is reflected in the growth of EPS with a certain time lag: since 2013, the overall repurchase scale of FAANG has increased significantly, and the corresponding EPS has also gradually increased. Since 2018, the repurchase amount and EPS have remained relatively high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7907cfab00a3c33a0e14348f20b22d82\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.3</b><b>Case analysis: The long-term \"grouping\" of Apple, Amazon, and Tesla also stems from the high growth of performance</b></p><p><b>(1) Apple: The sales of new models are poor, the R&D cost is rising, and the decline in performance causes the stock price to be halved. In the second quarter of 2013, huge cash repurchases supported EPS became the main driving factor for the stock price rebound.</b></p><p><b>Poor sales of new models and rising R&D costs, declining performance triggered a decline in stock prices.</b>The sales volume of iPhone5 was poor after its release. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the sales volume was only 27 million units, which was 10-15 million units lower than the market expectation. At the same time, due to a series of reasons such as opening a large number of flagship stores around the world, hiring more employees, and adjusting product lines, Apple's operating costs and operating expenses have risen sharply, resulting in a sharp decrease in Apple's profit growth in the fourth quarter and a decline in ROE. A wave of decline in stock prices. In about half a year from September 2012, Apple's stock price fell by at most 44%, almost halving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fff239aa6ce33fd2c5c69b8e9d2d06cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c6dee550a18c4aab0adb30363a8361e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Huge cash buybacks bless EPS to drive the stock price to rebound.</b>At the end of April, 2013, when Apple released its second quarterly report, it announced the launch of a 100 billion shareholder reward plan-before the end of 2015, it would return 100 billion dollars to shareholders through a stock repurchase and dividend plan: 60 billion dollars to repurchase stocks, and 30 billion dollars in dividends every year for the past three years. Known as the strongest action to give back to shareholders in history, investors have regained confidence and led to a sharp rebound in stock prices.</p><p><b>(2) Amazon: The low-expected financial report led to a correction in the stock price, the unexpected financial report brought a strong rebound in the stock price, and high growth started a long bull</b></p><p><b>The sharp correction of Amazon's stock price in October 2011 was caused by the release of the low-expectation quarterly report and investors' uncertainty about Amazon's future profitability.</b>Part of the decline in revenue in the third quarter of 2011 was due to unexpectedly high sales of Kindle Fire. Amazon adopted the \"Kodak strategy\" for Kindle, selling Kindle at a loss and taking advantage of the continued consumption of books and movies to profit. At this time, investors don't understand this strategy and reflect the uncertainty about Amazon's future profitability through the stock price.</p><p><b>In April 2012, Amazon broke Wall Street's expectations for the first quarter and the growth of third-party sales brought revenue growth to the company, and the stock price rebounded strongly.</b>Amazon's operating income increased in the first quarter of 2012. Shareholders saw Amazon's strategy and continuous improvement, and restored confidence in Amazon's profitability through this financial report.</p><p><b>Amazon's revenue growth is due to its increasing market share and a substantial increase in personal account revenue.</b>According to the disclosure of Amazon's financial report in the first quarter of 2012, compared with Ebay, an online shopping platform of the same type, Amazon's market share continues to increase, and Amazon's average personal account revenue has also increased substantially. This means that Amazon has formed a good profit model, and with the continuous improvement of market share, it is expected to occupy the leading position of the Internet retail platform.</p><p><b>(3) Tesla: Falling oil prices suppressed stock prices, spontaneous combustion incidents accelerated corrections, and growth rebounded after being recognized by the market</b></p><p>Tesla's stock price halved in 2015: From July 20, 2015 to February 9, 2016, Tesla's stock price fell sharply, with a drop of 46.02%. During the same period, the Nasdaq fell by 18.07%:</p><p><b>(1) On the one hand, the launch of Tesla's energy storage system business and the industry environment of low crude oil prices have caused Tesla's operating risks to increase sharply, and the development of the entire industry is facing unprecedented difficulties</b>--From September 2014 to November 2016, Tesla's share price had a strong positive correlation with Brent crude oil price. The low crude oil price was good for fuel vehicles, but it increased Tesla's operating risk. Tesla's share price and oil price went down almost simultaneously.<b>(2) On the other hand, vehicle spontaneous combustion accidents have accelerated their impact on stock prices</b>--On January 1, 2016, a Tesla Model S caught fire while charging at a super charging station in Jelsta, Norway, and the stock price was nearly halved afterwards.</p><p><b>Tesla's stock price rebounded after the clarification of the spontaneous combustion incident, and its growth was recognized by the market.</b>It was not until February 7, 2016 that the German Federal Automobile Transport Agency (KBA) clarified that the fire incident on January 1, 2016 had nothing to do with Tesla, and Tesla's stock price began to rebound.</p><p><b>Although affected by negative factors such as oil prices and accidents, Tesla's growth has been further recognized by the market, driving the stock price to rise</b>——（1）<b>Tesla is accelerating the expansion of product types.</b>The batch delivery of the Model X model started in Q4 2015 and the release of the entry-level electric model Model 3 enabled Tesla to enter the recreational electric vehicle market and the entry-level electric vehicle market, further enriching its product line. （2）<b>During the stage of negative news, Tesla continued to increase shipments, and its growth potential was recognized.</b>From 2013Q1 to 2017Q1, Tesla's shipments increased fivefold, from 4,900 vehicles to 25,000 vehicles. Among them, Q2 and Q3 in 2015 exceeded expectations, and Q4 shipments increased significantly. The annual delivery volume exceeded 50,000 units. The goals set at the beginning of the year helped the stock price rebound. In 17Q3, Tesla completed the delivery of about 25,000 vehicles worldwide, a year-on-year increase of 69%, setting the company's highest single-quarter sales record, which was also higher than market expectations of 24,000 vehicles, and the stock price hit a new high.</p><p><b>3</b></p><p><b>3.1 China is a catch-up economy, and its industrial structure is constantly switching, making it difficult for corporate profits to grow at a high rate in the long term</b></p><p><b>Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid growth is a typical catch-up growth, and the industrial structure will switch every 3-5 years.</b>The expansion and adjustment of China's industrial structure is a process of deep accumulation and continuous increase of added value: from the initial energy and basic raw materials to industrial intermediate products and chemicals, then to consumer goods and industrial products, then to products with high added value and industrial products, and then to the recent vigorous development of service industries with the highest added value represented by entertainment, finance and software.</p><p><b>Mapped to the capital market, there are very few A-share companies with continuous high growth, and these \"growth stocks\" are often contained in industries with structural improvement.</b>From 2000 to 2019, there were only 186 A-share high-growth companies with annual net profits higher than 30% for five consecutive years or more. These companies are not necessarily emerging technology industries: 69 of them belong to cyclical industries, accounting for 37%, 60 companies belong to the traditional consumer goods industry, accounting for 35%, and there are 57 TMT and service sectors representing emerging industries. With the structural improvement of the technology and service industries, the number of high-growth companies in the TMT and service sectors has an increasing trend.</p><p><b>3.2 The core reason why the high growth of A-share profits is unsustainable: the driving force of profitability is constantly switching (turnover ratio-> leverage ratio-> profit margin)</b></p><p><b>Judging from the dismantling of ROE DuPont, the driving factors of A-share profitability are constantly switching, resulting in unsustainable profitability of the company.</b>Since 2000, the profitability of A-share listed companies has first shifted from turnover rate driven (joining the WTO and integrating into the \"external circulation\") to leverage ratio driven (2008 financial crisis-\"4 trillion\" stimulated infrastructure), and returned to turnover rate driven in 13 years (\"internal and external rebalancing\" of financial/entity supply-side reform).<b>We judge that in the future, with the upgrading of the global \"value chain\" of China's high-end manufacturing, rising profit margins will serve as a new kinetic energy to drive economic growth.</b></p><p><b>3.3 The profitability of major sectors \"trade-off\", resulting in the continuous switching of popular stocks \"grouping\"</b></p><p><b>After 2008, the ROE of consumer stocks surpassed that of cyclical stocks, and the valuation of consumer stocks was significantly higher than that of cyclical stocks.</b>The ROE of consumer stocks began to surpass that of cyclical stocks after 2008, and the valuation center of consumer stocks relative to cyclical stocks also rose. The consumer industry with structurally improved profitability enjoys the dual promotion of profitability and valuation.</p><p><b>From 2013 to 2015, the ROE of TMT relative to consumption increased significantly, and the relative valuation of TMT also increased significantly.</b>Twelve years later, China entered the stock economy model. The slowdown in economic growth caused the expected profit growth rate at the molecular end to decline. The profit fluctuation range of traditional consumer industries converged. The extension mergers and acquisitions of technology stocks in the past 13 years have brought about a gradual increase in the ROE of TMT/consumption. As a result, the relative valuation of TMT/consumption also began to rise significantly.</p><p><b>In the past 19 years, the ROE of consumption relative to A-share non-financial has once again entered a recovery cycle. Consumption (leader) has continued to be sought after by investors, and the valuation center has moved up.</b>After 16-17 years of supply-side reform and 18 years of financial supply-side reform, there are very few industries with trend improvement in leverage ratio and turnover ratio, and it has become a relatively optimal solution for A-shares to find money to make \"profit margin\". China's advantageous consumer industries, especially the essential consumer industries, have significantly ahead of developed countries such as Europe and the United States in profit margins, and have high \"cost performance\". They are favored by northbound funds and insurance funds. After 19 years of \"grouping\" market, the valuation level and the concentration of fund positions have increased significantly.</p><p><b>4</b></p><p><b>4.1 Industrial structure: From consumption to technology, it can maintain long-term stability and become the basis for the sustainability of the FAANG (Tesla) industry</b></p><p><b>1970-2000, consumption outperformed; After 2000, technology outperformed.</b>The industrial structure of the United States has been relatively stable since the 1970s, basically dominated by consumption and technology, among which: the consumer industry in the United States dominated from the 1970s to the 1990s; Since 2000, the U.S. technology industry has dominated. The stable industrial structure provides the basis for the medium and long-term allocation of US stocks. (1) The consumption-oriented industrial structure in 1970s and 1990s brought about the long-term market of \"Beautiful 50\" in the United States; (2) Since 2000, the technology-based industrial structure has brought about the long-term market of FAANG (& Tesla).</p><p><b>The consumer and technology industries can obtain long-term excess returns.</b>Since 1973, the industries with the highest annualized rate of return in U.S. stocks are concentrated in consumer and technology industries: aviation and defense 10.9%, software and computer services 10.8%, leisure travel 9.8%, general retail 9.8%, electronic and electrical equipment 9.4%, health care 9.3%, food and drug retail 9.2%, food and beverage 8.9%.</p><p><b>Changes in industrial structure support the technology sector to achieve long-term high returns.</b>In the process of declining the economic growth center and transforming the economic structure, the added value of the technology industry in the U.S. stock market continues to increase in GDP, while the traditional industries continue to decrease in GDP. Specifically, the added value of industries representing the traditional economy accounts for a downward trend in GDP (steel, mining, nonferrous metals, machinery, automobiles, electrical equipment, etc.). The proportion of performance and added value in GDP that can maintain rapid growth is concentrated in new technology industries.<b>Changes in the industrial structure of the U.S. stock market support the sustainable growth of the profitability of growth stocks and become the key to driving the growth of technology.</b></p><p><b>4.2 Stock market structure: long-term stability, it will only switch every 10 years, which will also bring long-term stability of popular stocks</b></p><p><b>The stability of American industrial structure brings the stability of stock market structure.</b>Judging from the changes in the proportion of added value of various industries to GDP, since the 1970s, the proportion of cyclical sectors in the U.S. economy has declined year by year, while the proportion of consumption and technology sectors has steadily increased; Judging from the proportion of market value of various industries in the U.S. stock market, since the 1970s, the market value structure of the U.S. stock industry has gradually switched from industry and energy to consumer technology industries.<b>Looking at the long-term series, the market value structure of the U.S. stock market basically takes 10 years to switch significantly.</b></p><p><b>4.3 Investor structure: Institutional investors account for a high proportion, and passive investment strengthens the flexibility of popular stocks</b></p><p><b>The high proportion of institutional investors in U.S. stocks has boosted the market of popular stocks.</b>Judging from the investor structure disclosed by the Federal Reserve, U.S. institutional investors account for about 60% of the stock market value, which is significantly higher than 40% of retail investors. Under this caliber, household investors include a large number of individual major shareholders, so after excluding general legal persons, the proportion of institutional shareholding will be higher.<b>The shareholding ratio of retail investors is decreasing year by year. With the development of the stock market, there is a trend of \"de-retail investors\".</b></p><p><b>The development of pensions and mutual funds has accelerated the institutionalization of US stocks.</b>(1) U.S. personal account pensions (IRAs and DC plans) enter the market with bases to promote the institutionalization of U.S. stocks. In 1974, private pensions represented by IRAs and 401 (k) in the United States promoted the development of institutional investors: the proportion of private pensions continued to increase in the 1970s and 1990s, and the degree of institutionalization of U.S. stocks also increased significantly from about 20% to 40%. (2) In the 1990s, the scale of funds in the United States accelerated, and funds replaced pensions as the main driving force for the institutional development of U.S. stocks. The proportion of fund shareholdings in the United States continues to expand, especially since 2000, the proportion of funds has reached about 30%.</p><p><b>The scale of passive funds in U.S. stocks has increased, further boosting the market of popular stocks.</b>After 90 years, passive forces in the U.S. capital market have risen, and index funds have truly entered investors' field of vision. After the financial crisis in 2008, the expansion of passive products in the United States accelerated, starting to replace active products. At this time, the scale of passive products in the United States basically equals that of active products. The improvement of market institutionalization also makes it more difficult for actively managed funds to outperform, resulting in an increase in the proportion of passive funds.<b>We judge that the increase in the scale of passive investment will also aggravate the volatility of popular stocks to a certain extent. Against the background of continuous improvement in the profitability (expectation) of popular stocks, passive investment will strengthen the \"grouping\" of popular stocks.</b></p><p><b>4.4 Leading profit: High industry concentration improves leading performance and consolidates the performance foundation of popular stocks</b></p><p><b>The profitability of leading U.S. stocks is strong, and the profitability of leading stocks has long been stronger than that of non-leading stocks.</b>The profits of leading and non-leading U.S. stocks have gradually differentiated in recent years. The ROE of leading stocks with the highest circulating market capitalization is relatively stable, remaining at around 10%, while the ROE of stocks with smaller market capitalization has gradually dropped to about 5%, and the gap with leading stocks has widened. The leading profit advantage is significant.</p><p><b>The concentration of leading U.S. stocks continues to increase, strengthening the performance foundation of popular \"groupings\".</b>The operating income, net profit attributable to the parent company and market value of the U.S. technology stock FAANG have continued to increase as a proportion of the overall U.S. stock market (Nasdaq 100), increasing to 27.4%, 33% and 41.3% respectively in 20 years.<b>As the concentration of leading stocks increases, the trend of FAANG's stock price, revenue and profit ratio and market value ratio is more consistent.</b></p><p><b>4.5 Liquidity environment: The long-term low interest rate environment also supports FAANG's valuation to a certain extent</b></p><p><b>U.S. long-term interest rates continue to fall, bringing about a long-term bull market for U.S. stocks.</b>The long-term interest rate in the United States continues to be in a downward cycle. After several consecutive rounds of QE after the financial crisis, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has expanded significantly, further establishing the long-term low interest rate environment in the United States. Therefore, U.S. stocks, especially FAANG (& Tesla), can enjoy stable valuations for a long time. advantage. On the other hand, the continued expansion of U.S. government debt has also constrained the interest rate level from moving upward in a trend (expected), which will further support the stability of U.S. stock valuations.</p><p><b>The two major easing after the financial crisis in 2008 and the epidemic in 2020 have further pushed the valuation of popular group stocks in the United States to a higher level twice.</b>Three rounds of PE from 2008 to 2014 prompted global funds to return to the United States, passive funds accelerated their entry into the market, the valuation level of U.S. stocks continued to rise, and the valuation of high-quality leaders represented by FAANGT rose. During the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve restarted zero interest rate + QE to alleviate the liquidity crisis. Technology stocks represented by FAANGT benefited from immunity and expectations of easing liquidity, and their valuations rose sharply and continued to lead the gains.<b>The continued loose monetary policy of the United States has injected a large amount of liquidity into the market, laying a solid foundation for popular stocks to gather upward.</b></p><p><b>5</b></p><p><b>5.1 Industrial structure: the proportion of consumption and technology continues to rise</b></p><p><b>China's industrial structure: the proportion of consumption and technology continues to rise.</b>China's industrial structure is still in the process of transforming from industry to consumer service and technology industry. Since 2011, China's industrial structure has been optimized and upgraded. The profit proportion of enterprises in traditional industries has declined, while the profit proportion of consumer and technology companies has increased. At the same time, from 1996 to 2018, my country was far ahead of other major economies in the world with a compound growth rate of R&D expenditure of 20.597%. The development speed of the domestic tertiary industry was significantly improved, and the gap with the United States gradually narrowed.<b>With China's continuous investment in emerging industries and the support of national policies for new economic fields, the volume and proportion of China's consumption and technology industries will be further expanded, and it is expected to grow into pillar industries in the future.</b></p><p><b>5.2 Industrial structure: the proportion of consumption and technology continues to rise</b></p><p><b>The registration system reform will improve the stock market structure and improve the quality of listed companies.</b>The delisting rate of A-shares is significantly lower than that of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks, and an excellent market ecological environment with entry and exit has not yet been formed. At the end of December 2020, the strictest new delisting regulations issued by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges echoed the advancement of the registration system reform, and made detailed provisions on the scientific nature of delisting standards and the efficiency of the delisting process. After the implementation of the new delisting regulations, the delisting process of A-share market has been significantly accelerated, and the delisting rate has been significantly improved.<b>A strict and reasonable delisting system is expected to help A-shares form a good ecological environment, absorb the old and absorb the new, benchmark against the US stock market, and form a smoother two-way channel for entry and exit.</b></p><p><b>A-shares are in the early stage of economic transformation, and there is still a lot of room for growth in technology and consumer industries.</b>No matter from the perspective of market capitalization or profit proportion, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the scale of China's consumer and technology industries. (1) From the perspective of market value proportion, China's market value in information technology, healthcare, optional consumption and other fields is still significantly smaller than that of the United States, while the market value proportion of finance, industry, and materials industries is significantly higher than that of the United States, it can be seen that,<b>The market value structure of A shares/Hong Kong stocks still needs further adjustment.</b>(2) From the perspective of profit ratio, the profit ratio of China's cyclical and financial industries is also significantly higher than that of the United States, while the profit ratio of China's consumer and technology industries is significantly lower than that of the United States, which also shows that,<b>The structure of A-share/Hong Kong listed companies also needs to be adjusted.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, the internal market value structure and profit structure of A shares are also distorted to a certain extent.</b>In the market value structure of A-share listed companies, financial real estate and cyclical industries account for a relatively high proportion, while consumption and TMT account for a relatively low proportion; In the profit structure of A-share listed companies, the proportion of financial real estate and cyclical industries has further increased, while the profit proportion of consumer and TMT industries has been further squeezed.<b>We believe that the market value structure of the consumer and technology industries has been \"balanced\" (popular stocks are grouped together), but the profit structure of the consumer and technology industries is still distorted (caused by the unbalanced listing structure). With the gradual advancement of the registration system, more outstanding consumer and technology companies will go public, further balancing the market value structure and profit structure of A shares.</b></p><p><b>The market value of the consumer and technology industries is relatively high, but there is still much room for improvement in profits. It is hoped that the reform of the registration system will improve the matching between the stock market structure and the industrial structure.</b>Similarly, corresponding conclusions can be drawn from the industry level: the market value structure of A-shares has been partially \"balanced\" to a certain extent through the \"grouping\" of popular stocks, but the profit structure of A-shares is still dominated by traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and construction.<b>We judge that with the further advancement of the registration system reform, the proportion of outstanding consumer and technology companies listed will increase significantly, thus bringing about a relative match between A-share market value structure/profit structure and industrial structure.</b></p><p><b>5.3 Investor structure: A-share institutionalization, passive investment will strengthen the popular stock market</b></p><p><b>The institutionalization of A-shares is developing rapidly, but there is still much room.</b>The institutionalization of my country's A-share market has accelerated, and the proportion of institutional investors has increased in recent years, but it is still relatively low compared with the world, less than 40%. This means that there is still much room for development in China's institutionalization process.</p><p><b>Public funds, foreign capital and insurance funds constitute the three most important forces of A-share institutional investors.</b>The opening of Land-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the landing of MSCI have significantly accelerated the incremental capital of foreign capital in A shares. The issuance of more than 2 trillion partial equity funds in 2020 has made Public Offering of Fund's relay of foreign capital an important incremental fund in A-shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d14b390ec15a0ea2944167c772fa8a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The rise of China's pension has further accelerated the institutionalization of A-shares.</b>The scale and number of participants in my country's endowment insurance have been continuously and steadily expanding year by year since 2012. By 2019, the scale of endowment insurance for urban and rural residents exceeded 800 billion yuan, with 160 million people.<b>Drawing lessons from U.S. stocks, the development of personal account pensions is expected to drive the long-term transformation of my country's asset structure, provide a long-term and stable source of funds, and promote institutional development.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3832948e669bce8abb793b4c5df26fc\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A-shares are currently dominated by active funds, while passive products are still under development.</b>With the continuous maturity of the domestic market, it is increasingly difficult to defeat the market index and obtain excess returns through active management. In the past 10 years, the index fund product market has accelerated its development, the number of products has increased year by year, the scale of products has continued to expand, and the types of indexes tracked have become increasingly abundant. The total number of products issued in 2009 exceeded the sum of the number of products in all previous years, and reached more than 670 billion yuan at the peak of the bull market in 2015.<b>As the A-share market is included in the MSCI index system, the overall management scale of passive index funds will increase significantly again in the future, which will help improve the institutionalization level of A-shares and further strengthen the \"grouping\" market of popular stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecd15a112b262fbc6171b98c2e9226d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5.4 Leading profit: Industry concentration increases, and the stronger the industry leader is</b></p><p><b>The profitability of A-share leaders continues to improve, and the industry leaders are constantly strong.</b>With the deepening of supply-side reform, the increase of cost has brought structural changes to the industry. Leading enterprises have benefited from abundant funds, technical reserves and scale advantages, and finally achieved the overall improvement of industry concentration. With the improvement of the competitive landscape, the leading voice has gradually become obvious. Since 2017, the leading advantages of A-shares have been highlighted. Compared with the overall profitability (ROE, profit growth rate) of A-shares, the leading profit has outperformed the overall performance, and the ROE is nearly 4pct ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecbd55a8379e4af2e3b186bbfa73eca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5.5 Liquidity environment: \"Financial supply-side reform\" reduces entity financing costs, and northbound funds continue to flow in, which also helps to support core asset valuations in stages</b></p><p><b>\"Financial supply-side reform\" has significantly reduced entity financing costs: in the past three years, the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions in China has continued to decline.</b>Since the financial supply-side reform, China's credit increment has expanded significantly, and the growth rate of direct financing has been significantly higher than that of indirect financing for a long time. At the same time, financial supervision has been strengthened, the pressure of non-standard financing has dropped significantly, the stability of the financial system has been significantly improved, and the financing structure has continued to develop in a more balanced direction.<b>We judge that the \"financial supply-side reform\" has reduced the financing cost of entities, and to a certain extent, it has also consolidated the valuation foundation of China's core assets (even showed a tendency to bubble).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb6caf734459a6955c5203bf3b98357\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The global interest rate center has fallen, and the \"financial supply-side reform\" China's interest rate center will also enter a downward cycle.</b>The center of global long-term economic growth has moved downward, and the interest rate center has fallen simultaneously. Since 2002, the interest rate centers of other major economies have fallen by 130BP-390BP.<b>China's real estate boom cycle supports China's interest rate level. With the \"housing for living, not speculation\", the downward discount rate drives the financial supply side slow bull.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3287ecdf113a2683f8e05d5f44b3a14b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the past 16 years, the continuous inflow of funds from the north can continue to strengthen the popular stock market of A shares to a certain extent.</b>Data from the past 16 years show that the marginal change of the net inflow of funds to the north is basically related to the RMB exchange rate, but this correlation has weakened relatively since the past 20 years.<b>We believe that as the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation continues to rise, the expectation of continued inflow of northbound funds will be enhanced.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865712845fc3d18506244f10622f353c\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>However, the \"taste\" of northbound funds is constantly changing, and the support for core assets may not be sustainable.</b>From the data point of view, the inflow of capital to the north in 20 years was mainly concentrated in core assets (food and beverage/medicine/electronics, etc.), but in 21 years, the inflow of capital to the north increased marginally, and the direction of insufficient inflow is no longer a typical core asset, but banks/Pharmaceutical/chemical and other sectors.<b>Therefore, we believe that the expected strengthening of capital inflows from the north may support the valuation of core assets in stages. However, due to the dynamic changes in the \"taste\" of capital from the north, the support for the valuation of popular A-share stocks may definitely continue.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab98526b207faffe0311e5fdd00bd8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/113a47f3dd8191058e652d0db68014d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6</b></p><p><b>The \"grouping\" of popular A-share stocks is not sustainable: the driving force is constantly switching, the high performance growth is not sustainable</b><b>6.1 FAANG experience reference: Profit margin drive is an important reason for the long-term \"grouping\" of popular stocks</b></p><p><b>The ROE of U.S. stocks FAANG continues to rise, and the \"grouping\" of popular stocks is fundamentally due to the continuous improvement of profit margins.</b>FAANGT's ROE has increased significantly since 2012. Based on DuPont's three-factor dismantling, the increase in ROE is mainly contributed by the net sales profit margin, and the two trends are highly correlated. The increase in ROE was dragged down by the decline in asset turnover rate.<b>We believe that compared with the narrow fluctuations in leverage ratio and turnover ratio, the continued rise in ROE is mainly driven by profit margins.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de00fff483922cbad7a5715ed3ddfc3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6.2 Driven by the policy of \"high-quality development\", enterprises will start a new cycle of profit margin recovery</b></p><p><b>High-quality development/mixed finance/supply and demand gap, A-shares will start a new round of profit margin recovery cycle. We pointed out in \"\" Stabilizing \"Private Enterprises and\" Prospering \"Manufacturing\" released on April 29, 2019: High-quality development (transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing) will increase the profit margins of A-share listed companies in the medium and long term</b>--The driving force of China's economic growth, bounded by the 2008 financial crisis, can be divided into turnover rate drive and leverage ratio drive. Before 2008, with the east wind of China's accession to the WTO, China's economy was mainly export-oriented, and the turnover rate rose sharply and continued to improve the ROE level; After the 2008 financial crisis, China's economy became more dependent on real estate, infrastructure and leverage, and maintained a relatively high ROE level by increasing the leverage ratio. At present, China's economy is getting closer and closer to the inflection point of the long debt cycle, and its economy is the second largest in the world. It is difficult to maintain a high ROE level by increasing leverage or high turnover. Starting from the three factors of ROE DuPont, the transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing can enhance the position of Chinese enterprises in the global \"value chain\", which can improve the profit margin level (technological content) of enterprises in the medium and long term.<b>We wrote on 2020.4.21 \"Hybrid Finance, Can A-shares carve a boat and seek a sword?\" Pointed out: In 20 years, China's finance will take into account \"investment-oriented/consumption-oriented\" and will also improve the profit margin level of enterprises (especially consumer/technology manufacturing)</b>--Compared with the \"4 trillion\" investor finance-driven real estate/infrastructure plus leverage (leverage ratio) in 2008, we judge that the 20-year mixed finance has supported the economy to \"grow steadily\", and it is oriented to enterprise rescue and residents' rescue. By stimulating consumer demand (and supporting the investment of some manufacturing enterprises), the profit margin of the consumption/manufacturing industry will be raised (improving ROE).<b>Our index in 2021.1.18 \"Looking at the Industry's\" Supply and Demand Gap \"from a Production Capacity Perspective\" and 2021.3.19 \"Looking at\" Carbon Neutral \"Investment Opportunities from a Production Capacity Perspective\": The expansion of the \"Supply and Demand Gap\" in 21 years and pro-cyclical price increases will support pro-cyclical enterprises in the short term. Profit margins continue to be high</b>--Under the \"supply-side reform\" in 16-17 years and the normalization policy of supply contraction in 18 years, the production capacity (year-on-year growth rate of fixed assets) of enterprises has continued to be low, while the capacity utilization rate has rebounded from a high level. The high capacity utilization rate keeps the company's operation in a state of \"tight balance between supply and demand\" for a long time. Therefore, whether it is the \"post-epidemic\" demand recovery or the \"carbon neutral\" supply contraction, it will lead to the expansion of the \"supply and demand gap\" of the company, which in turn will bring Procyclical price increases/expectations (rising profit margins).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a32432dd6e9bcbead0e33bd5d76678\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing will boost the profit margins of technology manufacturing and some consumption (upgrading) industries.</b>Benefiting from the continuous endogenous transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, coupled with the reshaping of the global supply chain after the \"COVID-19\" epidemic, it has also brought about a year-on-year improvement in China's manufacturing market share & profit margin level (pricing power). We believe that as policies begin to strengthen the upgrading of high-end manufacturing, midstream manufacturing will usher in further endogenous/exogenous transformation and upgrading.<b>The profit margin level of high-end manufacturing leaders (new energy vehicles/semiconductors/equipment manufacturing) has further improved.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26db5325806194701daf850aea363775\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6.3 The transformation and upgrading of China's high-end manufacturing will continue to improve the profit margin of the consumer/technology manufacturing industry</b></p><p><b>Based on DuPont's three-factor dismantling, increasing the profit margin of China's manufacturing industry is the best option to maintain high economic growth.</b>At present, China's economy is getting closer and closer to the inflection point of the long debt cycle, and its economy is the second largest in the world. It is difficult to maintain a high ROE level by increasing leverage or high turnover. In terms of profit margin, Chinese manufacturing is \"big but not strong\", and virtues occupy the main position in the high-end manufacturing chain in the international division of labor gradient pattern.<b>China's manufacturing industry is still in the middle and low end of the global value chain, and there is much room for development in high-end industries.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419fcc08ae7be3d4fa5ec9285d183a51\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Comparing the ROE structures of China and the United States, the profitability of U.S. stocks continues to be higher than that of China: mainly because U.S. companies occupy a high position in the global value chain, while Chinese companies win by \"volume\", and their sales profit margins are much lower than those of the United States.</b>Through DuPont dismantling, it can be seen that the asset turnover rate and asset-liability ratio of A-shares excluding finance are significantly higher than those of S&P 500, which is determined by the high turnover and high leverage business model of Chinese enterprises;<b>However, most A-share listed companies are still at the bottom of the global division of labor system, and their gross profit margins are relatively low, resulting in the sales profit margin of A-shares excluding finance being much lower than that of the S&P 500.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5a94381654059f93690bb90e12d4b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2417b527feb1c308c8693ab0206aa2d6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The gross profit margin of sub-sectors whose profit margin in China is significantly lower than that in the United States is expected to increase, among which high-end manufacturing is the main foothold for China to reshape the global value chain.</b>We compared the profit margins of various industries in China and the United States, and divided China's industries into three categories-<b>(1) China is still in a backward industry in the international \"value chain\" (high-end manufacturing)</b>Most of them are areas supported by the \"Made in China 2025\" strategy; (2) China's industries (general consumer goods + low-end manufacturing) that are basically in line with the United States in the international \"value chain\", most of which belong to the relatively low-end varieties in the global value chain, and it is difficult for China and the United States to widen the gap; (3) Due to market structure and industry monopoly, China's profit margin in some industries is higher than that of the United States (durable goods consumption industry + biomedical industry + financial industry), mainly benefiting from China's consumption upgrading or monopolized industrial environment, and its profit margin is significantly higher than that of the corresponding industries in the United States.<b>Therefore, the main growth space of China's economy in the future is that the profit margin is significantly lower than that of the high-end manufacturing industry in the United States.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efd979ffa6ce0f4c7bd76985342ae883\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Compared with Japan and South Korea, the profit margin of China's mid-range manufacturing industry is still low, and there is also a catch-up market.</b>According to the GICS industry group, we compared the profit margins of China and mid-range manufacturing countries represented by Japan and South Korea. We can also divide China's industries into three categories-<b>(1) China is still in a backward industry in the international \"value chain\" (mid-end manufacturing industry)</b>。 (2) China's industries that are basically in line with Japan and South Korea in the international \"value chain\" (general consumer goods + low-end manufacturing), some of which belong to the relatively low-end varieties in the global value chain, and there is basically no gap with Japan and South Korea; (3) Due to market structure and industry monopoly, China's profit margins in some industries are higher than those of Japan and South Korea (durable goods consumption industry + biomedical industry + financial industry).<b>Accordingly, we believe that China has certain room for development in the mid-range manufacturing industry. And the improvement of profit margins in consumption and technology industries will provide new kinetic energy for China's economic growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615d804a880f86f87e719e8039d63f6c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22bced60cd591b2889ab8671338ecc38\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7、</b><b><b>Risk warning</b></b></p><p>There is still the risk of recurrence of the global epidemic, especially the COVID-19 pandemic variation will bring greater uncertainty; The mutation/recurrence of the epidemic may cause the global economic recovery to fall short of expectations and affect China's export resilience; Global/China inflation is high and liquidity may tighten marginally (as expected by US taper); There is still strong uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GF Strategy: Looking at A-share \"hot stocks\" from FAANG</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGF Strategy: Looking at A-share \"hot stocks\" from FAANG\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1056171073\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cafb9373f37472a90f0196dbde5ddff);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">戴康的策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 14:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary of the report</b></p><p><b>Introduction: After the microstructure adjustment, how to see the sustainability of the A-share popular stock market?</b></p><p>In the short term, the repair of the \"microstructure\" of A-shares is halfway through, but it has not yet reached a healthy state, and the market of popular stocks is still constrained. In the medium and long term, China's high-quality development will strengthen the stability of the industrial structure, consumption/technology manufacturing performance (profit margin) is expected to continue to grow at a high rate, and the popular stock market will also continue in the medium term.</p><p><b>Why do U.S. stocks FAANG \"hold groups\" for a long time, while popular A-share stocks switch once every 3-5 years?</b></p><p>U.S. stocks and FAANGT are basically driven by profits, which makes the popular stock market sustainable; A-share leading (industry leading index) is mainly driven by valuation, which partly leads to the unsustainable market of popular stocks.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks FAANG \"grouping\" are sustainable: performance maintains high growth.</b></p><p>Since 2000, FAANGT has continued to obtain excess returns, and there have been periodic corrections during this period, but strong profits (expectations) will bring about a significant rebound. We judge that the high growth of FAANGT's performance stems from: (mobile) Internet dividends, overseas business expansion, and share repurchases to enhance EPS.</p><p><b>Historically, the background of the unsustainable \"grouping\" of popular A-share stocks: the driving force is constantly switching, and the high performance growth is unsustainable.</b></p><p>China is a catch-up economy, and its industrial structure will switch every 3-5 years. There are very few A-share companies with continuous high growth. Judging from the dismantling of ROE DuPont, the driving force of corporate profitability has successively switched from turnover rate to leverage ratio to profit margin, resulting in the performance advantages of different sectors \"trade-off\", and popular stocks are also in cycle/consumer manufacturing/technology/Constantly switching in consumer services.</p><p><b>The background of the sustainable era of \"grouping\" of U.S. stocks: The United States is a \"leading\" economy with a stable industrial structure and sustained high growth in corporate profits (profit margin-driven).</b></p><p>Since 2000, the industrial structure of the United States has been dominated by the technology Internet, which has created the FAANGT market. A stable industrial structure also brings a stable US stock structure. The high proportion of institutional investors in the United States will also strengthen the \"grouping\" market of popular stocks. At the same time, the leading U.S. stock market has strong profitability, increasing industry concentration, and continuously loose liquidity environment, which is also consolidating the sustainability of FAANGT's profitability/\"grouping\".</p><p><b>Changes in the background of the times have accelerated the transformation of A-shares into American stocks: China has gradually turned to a \"leading\" economy, the stability of its industrial structure has increased, and corporate profitability (profit margin-driven) will continue to improve.</b></p><p>The proportion of China's consumption and science and technology industrial structure is gradually rising. From the perspective of market value structure, the popular stock \"group\" industry has improved the market value structure of consumption/technology; With the advancement of the registration system reform, the profit structure of A-share consumption/technology will also be optimized. Chinese investors are also accelerating institutionalization, and passive investment will also strengthen the market of popular stocks. At the same time, the increase in leading concentration and the downward trend of discount rate will also consolidate the performance and valuation foundation of popular stocks \"Baotuan\".</p><p><b>ROE DuPont dismantling looks at the direction of \"grouping\" of popular A-share stocks: consumption/technology manufacturing.</b></p><p>Drawing lessons from the experience of FAANGT, profit margins drive the long-term \"grouping\" of popular stocks. High-quality development/mixed finance/supply and demand gap, A-shares will start a new round of profit margin recovery cycle. Compared with China, the United States/Japan/South Korea, the profit margin of China's consumer industry (food/medicine/durable consumer goods, etc.) is at a relatively high level and will continue to benefit from the upgrade of mass consumption; The profit margin of the technology manufacturing industry (semiconductor/software/equipment manufacturing, etc.) is relatively low, and it will also benefit from the upgrade of high-end manufacturing.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The epidemic has repeated, the economy has fallen short of expectations, liquidity tightening, and Sino-US relations are uncertain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0151426b5876b0af086b434beae8c9\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"1300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><b>After the microstructure adjustment, how to see the sustainability of the A-share popular stock market?</b></p><p><b>In the short term, the market of popular A-share stocks is still constrained: the repair of \"microstructure\" is halfway through, but it has not yet reached a healthy state.</b>On February 24, we released \"Diffusion Upgrade\" and the whole market took the lead in putting forward: \"There is something wrong with the market microstructure\", and continued to release a series of reports: \"Microstructure Deterioration-History and Impact\", \"How to Observe the Market Microstructure\", \"From the Microstructure Looking at U.S. Debt and A Shares\", \"Causes and Prospects of Microstructure Deterioration\".<b>At present, the \"microstructure\" repair of A-shares is halfway through but has not yet reached a healthy state</b>--(1) The proportion of the turnover of the top 5% stocks in all A shares has dropped from the high of 49.7% in February to the current 42.1%, but it is still higher than the central 36.3% in 17 years. (2) The Mao Index has a maximum pullback/retracement of 23.8% from the high point in February, but it has rebounded since the end of March (the overall pullback/retracement since the high point of the Mao Index is 15.3%, and the wind all-A pullback/retracement is 5.2%). (3) At present, the valuation of A-share popular stocks (A150 index) is still at a high level of +1 times standard deviation of the average since the large inflow of northbound funds at the end of 2016, while the valuation of A-share non-financial stocks excluding A150 is still below the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337c99ebe443ec3a4bc4ddb2aad814e\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e59e6f51de5fdb452a7fb7351f7c5c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium and long-term dimension: Why has the FAANG of US stocks been \"grouped\" for a long time since 2000, while the popular A-share stocks switch every 3-5 years? The United States is a \"leading\" economy, and its stable industrial structure and sustained high growth have brought about long-term FAANG grouping, while China is a \"catch-up\" economy. The high performance growth of popular A-share stocks is difficult to sustain, and it will happen every 3-5 years. Switch once</b>--The United States is a \"leading\" economy with a stable industrial structure and is in the upper reaches of the global \"value chain\". Enterprises can continuously and steadily earn high profit margins. At the same time, American enterprises also benefit from (mobile) Internet dividends, overseas business expansion and share repurchase to enhance EPS and further stabilize the profitability of enterprises. China is a \"catch-up\" economy, and its industrial structure continues to change (turnover rate driven to leverage ratio driven to profit margin driven). It is difficult for corporate profits to sustain high growth. Most companies maintain high performance growth in about 3-5 years.</p><p><b>We judge that China's high-quality development is gradually shifting from a \"catch-up\" economy to a \"leading\" economy, the stability of the industrial structure is enhanced, and the \"grouping\" market of consumption/technology manufacturing with continuous improvement in profit margins is expected to continue.</b>The proportion of China's consumption and science and technology industrial structure is gradually rising. With the advancement of the registration system reform, the profit structure of the A-share consumption/technology manufacturing industry will also be optimized. Chinese investors are also accelerating institutionalization, and passive investment will also strengthen the market of popular stocks. At the same time, the long-term trend of increasing industry concentration and downward discount rate will also consolidate the performance and valuation foundation of popular stocks. Drawing lessons from FAANG's experience, profit margin drive is an important reason for the long-term \"grouping\" of popular stocks. The \"hybrid\" finance/\"domestic cycle\"/high-end manufacturing upgrade will start a longer profit margin recovery cycle in China's consumer/technology manufacturing industry. Long-term \"grouping\" direction of A-shares: mass consumption and high-end manufacturing with potential improvement in profit margins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365346aa80701cbc47c4036f934acb1d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1</b></p><p><b>Why do U.S. stocks FAANG \"hold groups\" for a long time, while popular A-share stocks switch once every 3-5 years? 1.1</b><b>Since 2000, U.S. stocks FAANG have continued to \"hold groups\"</b></p><p><b>Since 2000, FAANG, a popular US stock, has continued to outperform the Nasdaq index.</b>The FAANGT (FAANG + Tesla) index has shown a steady upward trend since 2000. FAANG has also continued to obtain excess returns relative to the Nasdaq index, with a pullback/retracement in only 10-13 years. Over the past 14 years, the FAANG index has continued to dominate both absolute and relative returns (after the outbreak of the epidemic, the FAANG index has absolute returns, but the relative returns are not very significant).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ed810c2853c8fc10d4f21426283790\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.2</b><b>Popular A-share stocks switch every 3-5 years: Five Golden Flowers-> Real Estate Infrastructure-> Consumer Manufacturing-> TMT-> Consumer Services/Technology</b></p><p><b>Since 2000, the popular A-share stocks have switched roughly 6 times, basically every 3-5 years, there will be a rotation of popular stocks.</b>A-share popular stocks have been iterating continuously in the past 20 years, and each round of popular stock market basically reflects the distinct background of the times at that time-(1) China joined the WTO in early 2000, and the foreign trade economy brought the \"five golden flowers\" market represented by coal, steel and non-ferrous metals; (2) After the financial crisis in 2008, the \"4 trillion\" fiscal stimulus plan brought about the \"leverage\" market of real estate and infrastructure; (3) In the 10-12-year profit downward cycle, the profitability of consumer manufacturing industry surpassed that of cyclical products, leading the market of consumer stocks of liquor, automobiles and medicine; (4) The outbreak of extension mergers and acquisitions in 13-15 years has brought about the market of technology stocks represented by computers and electronics; (5) In the past 16 years, with the further increase of industry concentration, blue-chip leading stocks such as liquor and home appliances have once again become the \"new favorites\" of the market; (6) In 2019, the \"financial supply-side reform\" reduced the financing cost of entities, and the discount rate declined and Sino-US trade friction was superimposed. Independent and controllable sectors such as semiconductors and medicine continued to be sought after by the market.<b>It can be seen that since China is a typical catch-up economy, as the industrial structure continues to change, the hot stocks in the capital market will continue to switch, which to a certain extent will bring about the core difference between Chinese and American hot stocks: the FAANG market in the United States can last for up to 20 years, while China's hot stock market will face a \"reshuffle\" every 3-5 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdce0d72cce6ad1925aa8e25d6f965c9\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1.3</b><b>U.S. stock FAANG is mainly driven by profit, and A-share popular stocks are mainly driven by valuation</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks as a whole are driven by profits, while A shares as a whole are basically driven by valuation after 2010.</b>We dismantled the driving factors of the annual rise and fall of U.S. stocks (Nasdaq Index) and A-shares (Shanghai Composite Index) in the past 20 years, and we can see that: (1) The annual yield of U.S. stocks is driven by profit in most years, only driven by valuation in a few years (only 2003, 2009, 13, 17 and 20 years); (2) The annual rate of return of A shares was basically driven by profit before 2010 (the era of incremental economy), but after 2010, it was basically driven by valuation (the era of stock economy).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56f8f0615890503d63bb8e0af95772a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. stock FAANG is mainly driven by profit, while A-share leaders are mainly driven by valuation.</b>We further dismantled the driving factors of the annual rise and fall of U.S. stock FAANG (& Tesla) and A-share leaders (industry leading indexes), and reached similar conclusions: (1) U.S. stock FAANG is mainly driven by profit, and only driven by valuation in some years. Driven (2009, 12, 15 and 20 years); (2) A-share leading (industry leading index) is basically driven by valuation (industry leading index has only had both valuation and profit data since 18 years).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3044a364cb1090bd004a3e7b519f1744\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2</b></p><p><b>U.S. stock FAANG \"grouping\" is sustainable: performance maintains high growth 2.1</b><b>Since 2000, FAANG has been \"together\" for a long time, but there has also been a phased decline</b></p><p><b>There have been several periodic \"common\" corrections in the history of U.S. stocks FAANG (& Tesla).</b>Since 2000, FAANG and Tesla have had 8 common large-scale \"common\" corrections (that is, most companies have pulled back together for common reasons in the market in some periods of time): for example, the bursting of the \"dot com bubble\" in 20 years led to 2 common callbacks; The 2008 financial crisis also led to a very significant common correction; After the Federal Reserve started the shrinking balance sheet process in 2014, FAANG (& Tesla) also experienced several significant common corrections in the following years. In February-March of the global spread of the epidemic in 2020 and the subsequent September, FAANG (& Tesla) also experienced a relatively significant common correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e54989a68e5891a1506aebc5df4bc3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to \"common\" pullbacks, some FAANG (& Tesla) stocks also experienced \"individual\" pullbacks.</b>FAANG (& Tesla) has a total of 13 \"personalized\" callbacks (i.e. individual callbacks in which only individual companies occur based on the company's own logic in a specific time period). Among them, Amazon and Netflix have relatively many \"personalized\" separate callbacks.<b>From the data point of view, FAANG (& Tesla) 's \"common\" callback is generally larger than the \"individual\" callback. It can be seen that FAANG's \"grouping\" shows strong consistency, and the periodic fluctuations (callbacks) of individual companies have less impact on the overall situation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c7ef2086dff2221e28534d7a2516dd1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/851f002c5097566805d0e7eba9b31798\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a61596ec1aa03236187e5d188fa42290\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2</b><b>The cause of \"holding a group\": sustained high growth in performance</b></p><p><b>FAANG (& Tesla) Each \"common\" pullback is followed by a strong earnings repair (expected) that brings a significant rebound. The marginal deterioration of the macro environment, the \"common\" correction of popular U.S. stocks</b>--Negative events such as the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet that began in 2014, and the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 have had a huge impact on the global economy. Global stock markets, including popular U.S. stocks, have experienced a general correction.<b>Strong Earnings Repair Expectations Bring Significant Rebound in FAANG (& Tesla)</b>--FAANG (& Tesla) has experienced many \"common\" corrections since 2000, but after each correction, the stock price will rebound quickly and hit new highs. We summarized the reasons for the rebound of FAANG (& Tesla), and we can see that the relatively strong profitability is the main driving force.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73409c19efd755023cca3e4c73392150\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>We judge that the strong profitability of FAANG (& Tesla) mainly comes from: (mobile) Internet dividends, overseas business expansion, share repurchases to enhance EPS--</b></p><p><b>(1) (Mobile) Internet dividend: Internet dividend since 2000 and mobile Internet dividend since 2010, continuously optimize FAANG (& Tesla) profit (expected).</b>Since the 1990s, the United States has occupied the technological high point of information technology and continues to enjoy the dividends of the Internet. After the bursting of the \"Internet bubble\", the profitability of some Internet companies (Google, Amazon, etc.) has been continuously verified, and they have gradually become the \"group\" of the market. \"focus; The mobile Internet era began in 2009-11, pushing FAANG's profits into an accelerated upward period. Technology stocks with R&D advantages have experienced big explosions in 2009-11 and 2018-19, especially FAANG's net profit growth has been strong: December 2009-December 2011 and March 2018-March 2019, FAANGT's net profit attributable to the parent company rose by more than 200% and 50% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf42f7dd0cd3e74a8285c64e126fcf3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(2) Overseas business expansion: FAANG continues to expand overseas markets, and the proportion of overseas revenue is increasing year by year.</b>Since the listing of FAANG and Tesla, the overall proportion of overseas revenue has gradually increased from 0% (except Google and Facebook, which are about 30%) to 50-60%. The global layout has brought continued strong profitability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1348f2d3c5107dfb1d278420a1fbb5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>(3) Share repurchase: Further enhance FAANG (& Tesla) EPS when the profit level is higher.</b>Corporate buybacks will reduce the number of shares. Under the (mobile) Internet dividend, FAANG (& Tesla) 's profitability continues to improve, and share buybacks can further strengthen the EPS of these companies. At the same time, share repurchases will also boost investor confidence to a certain extent and enhance the stability of FAANG (& Tesla) 's stock price. Judging from the year-on-year change trend of FAANG's repurchase amount over the years and the trend of EPS, it is relatively close. The repurchase is reflected in the growth of EPS with a certain time lag: since 2013, the overall repurchase scale of FAANG has increased significantly, and the corresponding EPS has also gradually increased. Since 2018, the repurchase amount and EPS have remained relatively high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7907cfab00a3c33a0e14348f20b22d82\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.3</b><b>Case analysis: The long-term \"grouping\" of Apple, Amazon, and Tesla also stems from the high growth of performance</b></p><p><b>(1) Apple: The sales of new models are poor, the R&D cost is rising, and the decline in performance causes the stock price to be halved. In the second quarter of 2013, huge cash repurchases supported EPS became the main driving factor for the stock price rebound.</b></p><p><b>Poor sales of new models and rising R&D costs, declining performance triggered a decline in stock prices.</b>The sales volume of iPhone5 was poor after its release. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the sales volume was only 27 million units, which was 10-15 million units lower than the market expectation. At the same time, due to a series of reasons such as opening a large number of flagship stores around the world, hiring more employees, and adjusting product lines, Apple's operating costs and operating expenses have risen sharply, resulting in a sharp decrease in Apple's profit growth in the fourth quarter and a decline in ROE. A wave of decline in stock prices. In about half a year from September 2012, Apple's stock price fell by at most 44%, almost halving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fff239aa6ce33fd2c5c69b8e9d2d06cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c6dee550a18c4aab0adb30363a8361e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Huge cash buybacks bless EPS to drive the stock price to rebound.</b>At the end of April, 2013, when Apple released its second quarterly report, it announced the launch of a 100 billion shareholder reward plan-before the end of 2015, it would return 100 billion dollars to shareholders through a stock repurchase and dividend plan: 60 billion dollars to repurchase stocks, and 30 billion dollars in dividends every year for the past three years. Known as the strongest action to give back to shareholders in history, investors have regained confidence and led to a sharp rebound in stock prices.</p><p><b>(2) Amazon: The low-expected financial report led to a correction in the stock price, the unexpected financial report brought a strong rebound in the stock price, and high growth started a long bull</b></p><p><b>The sharp correction of Amazon's stock price in October 2011 was caused by the release of the low-expectation quarterly report and investors' uncertainty about Amazon's future profitability.</b>Part of the decline in revenue in the third quarter of 2011 was due to unexpectedly high sales of Kindle Fire. Amazon adopted the \"Kodak strategy\" for Kindle, selling Kindle at a loss and taking advantage of the continued consumption of books and movies to profit. At this time, investors don't understand this strategy and reflect the uncertainty about Amazon's future profitability through the stock price.</p><p><b>In April 2012, Amazon broke Wall Street's expectations for the first quarter and the growth of third-party sales brought revenue growth to the company, and the stock price rebounded strongly.</b>Amazon's operating income increased in the first quarter of 2012. Shareholders saw Amazon's strategy and continuous improvement, and restored confidence in Amazon's profitability through this financial report.</p><p><b>Amazon's revenue growth is due to its increasing market share and a substantial increase in personal account revenue.</b>According to the disclosure of Amazon's financial report in the first quarter of 2012, compared with Ebay, an online shopping platform of the same type, Amazon's market share continues to increase, and Amazon's average personal account revenue has also increased substantially. This means that Amazon has formed a good profit model, and with the continuous improvement of market share, it is expected to occupy the leading position of the Internet retail platform.</p><p><b>(3) Tesla: Falling oil prices suppressed stock prices, spontaneous combustion incidents accelerated corrections, and growth rebounded after being recognized by the market</b></p><p>Tesla's stock price halved in 2015: From July 20, 2015 to February 9, 2016, Tesla's stock price fell sharply, with a drop of 46.02%. During the same period, the Nasdaq fell by 18.07%:</p><p><b>(1) On the one hand, the launch of Tesla's energy storage system business and the industry environment of low crude oil prices have caused Tesla's operating risks to increase sharply, and the development of the entire industry is facing unprecedented difficulties</b>--From September 2014 to November 2016, Tesla's share price had a strong positive correlation with Brent crude oil price. The low crude oil price was good for fuel vehicles, but it increased Tesla's operating risk. Tesla's share price and oil price went down almost simultaneously.<b>(2) On the other hand, vehicle spontaneous combustion accidents have accelerated their impact on stock prices</b>--On January 1, 2016, a Tesla Model S caught fire while charging at a super charging station in Jelsta, Norway, and the stock price was nearly halved afterwards.</p><p><b>Tesla's stock price rebounded after the clarification of the spontaneous combustion incident, and its growth was recognized by the market.</b>It was not until February 7, 2016 that the German Federal Automobile Transport Agency (KBA) clarified that the fire incident on January 1, 2016 had nothing to do with Tesla, and Tesla's stock price began to rebound.</p><p><b>Although affected by negative factors such as oil prices and accidents, Tesla's growth has been further recognized by the market, driving the stock price to rise</b>——（1）<b>Tesla is accelerating the expansion of product types.</b>The batch delivery of the Model X model started in Q4 2015 and the release of the entry-level electric model Model 3 enabled Tesla to enter the recreational electric vehicle market and the entry-level electric vehicle market, further enriching its product line. （2）<b>During the stage of negative news, Tesla continued to increase shipments, and its growth potential was recognized.</b>From 2013Q1 to 2017Q1, Tesla's shipments increased fivefold, from 4,900 vehicles to 25,000 vehicles. Among them, Q2 and Q3 in 2015 exceeded expectations, and Q4 shipments increased significantly. The annual delivery volume exceeded 50,000 units. The goals set at the beginning of the year helped the stock price rebound. In 17Q3, Tesla completed the delivery of about 25,000 vehicles worldwide, a year-on-year increase of 69%, setting the company's highest single-quarter sales record, which was also higher than market expectations of 24,000 vehicles, and the stock price hit a new high.</p><p><b>3</b></p><p><b>3.1 China is a catch-up economy, and its industrial structure is constantly switching, making it difficult for corporate profits to grow at a high rate in the long term</b></p><p><b>Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid growth is a typical catch-up growth, and the industrial structure will switch every 3-5 years.</b>The expansion and adjustment of China's industrial structure is a process of deep accumulation and continuous increase of added value: from the initial energy and basic raw materials to industrial intermediate products and chemicals, then to consumer goods and industrial products, then to products with high added value and industrial products, and then to the recent vigorous development of service industries with the highest added value represented by entertainment, finance and software.</p><p><b>Mapped to the capital market, there are very few A-share companies with continuous high growth, and these \"growth stocks\" are often contained in industries with structural improvement.</b>From 2000 to 2019, there were only 186 A-share high-growth companies with annual net profits higher than 30% for five consecutive years or more. These companies are not necessarily emerging technology industries: 69 of them belong to cyclical industries, accounting for 37%, 60 companies belong to the traditional consumer goods industry, accounting for 35%, and there are 57 TMT and service sectors representing emerging industries. With the structural improvement of the technology and service industries, the number of high-growth companies in the TMT and service sectors has an increasing trend.</p><p><b>3.2 The core reason why the high growth of A-share profits is unsustainable: the driving force of profitability is constantly switching (turnover ratio-> leverage ratio-> profit margin)</b></p><p><b>Judging from the dismantling of ROE DuPont, the driving factors of A-share profitability are constantly switching, resulting in unsustainable profitability of the company.</b>Since 2000, the profitability of A-share listed companies has first shifted from turnover rate driven (joining the WTO and integrating into the \"external circulation\") to leverage ratio driven (2008 financial crisis-\"4 trillion\" stimulated infrastructure), and returned to turnover rate driven in 13 years (\"internal and external rebalancing\" of financial/entity supply-side reform).<b>We judge that in the future, with the upgrading of the global \"value chain\" of China's high-end manufacturing, rising profit margins will serve as a new kinetic energy to drive economic growth.</b></p><p><b>3.3 The profitability of major sectors \"trade-off\", resulting in the continuous switching of popular stocks \"grouping\"</b></p><p><b>After 2008, the ROE of consumer stocks surpassed that of cyclical stocks, and the valuation of consumer stocks was significantly higher than that of cyclical stocks.</b>The ROE of consumer stocks began to surpass that of cyclical stocks after 2008, and the valuation center of consumer stocks relative to cyclical stocks also rose. The consumer industry with structurally improved profitability enjoys the dual promotion of profitability and valuation.</p><p><b>From 2013 to 2015, the ROE of TMT relative to consumption increased significantly, and the relative valuation of TMT also increased significantly.</b>Twelve years later, China entered the stock economy model. The slowdown in economic growth caused the expected profit growth rate at the molecular end to decline. The profit fluctuation range of traditional consumer industries converged. The extension mergers and acquisitions of technology stocks in the past 13 years have brought about a gradual increase in the ROE of TMT/consumption. As a result, the relative valuation of TMT/consumption also began to rise significantly.</p><p><b>In the past 19 years, the ROE of consumption relative to A-share non-financial has once again entered a recovery cycle. Consumption (leader) has continued to be sought after by investors, and the valuation center has moved up.</b>After 16-17 years of supply-side reform and 18 years of financial supply-side reform, there are very few industries with trend improvement in leverage ratio and turnover ratio, and it has become a relatively optimal solution for A-shares to find money to make \"profit margin\". China's advantageous consumer industries, especially the essential consumer industries, have significantly ahead of developed countries such as Europe and the United States in profit margins, and have high \"cost performance\". They are favored by northbound funds and insurance funds. After 19 years of \"grouping\" market, the valuation level and the concentration of fund positions have increased significantly.</p><p><b>4</b></p><p><b>4.1 Industrial structure: From consumption to technology, it can maintain long-term stability and become the basis for the sustainability of the FAANG (Tesla) industry</b></p><p><b>1970-2000, consumption outperformed; After 2000, technology outperformed.</b>The industrial structure of the United States has been relatively stable since the 1970s, basically dominated by consumption and technology, among which: the consumer industry in the United States dominated from the 1970s to the 1990s; Since 2000, the U.S. technology industry has dominated. The stable industrial structure provides the basis for the medium and long-term allocation of US stocks. (1) The consumption-oriented industrial structure in 1970s and 1990s brought about the long-term market of \"Beautiful 50\" in the United States; (2) Since 2000, the technology-based industrial structure has brought about the long-term market of FAANG (& Tesla).</p><p><b>The consumer and technology industries can obtain long-term excess returns.</b>Since 1973, the industries with the highest annualized rate of return in U.S. stocks are concentrated in consumer and technology industries: aviation and defense 10.9%, software and computer services 10.8%, leisure travel 9.8%, general retail 9.8%, electronic and electrical equipment 9.4%, health care 9.3%, food and drug retail 9.2%, food and beverage 8.9%.</p><p><b>Changes in industrial structure support the technology sector to achieve long-term high returns.</b>In the process of declining the economic growth center and transforming the economic structure, the added value of the technology industry in the U.S. stock market continues to increase in GDP, while the traditional industries continue to decrease in GDP. Specifically, the added value of industries representing the traditional economy accounts for a downward trend in GDP (steel, mining, nonferrous metals, machinery, automobiles, electrical equipment, etc.). The proportion of performance and added value in GDP that can maintain rapid growth is concentrated in new technology industries.<b>Changes in the industrial structure of the U.S. stock market support the sustainable growth of the profitability of growth stocks and become the key to driving the growth of technology.</b></p><p><b>4.2 Stock market structure: long-term stability, it will only switch every 10 years, which will also bring long-term stability of popular stocks</b></p><p><b>The stability of American industrial structure brings the stability of stock market structure.</b>Judging from the changes in the proportion of added value of various industries to GDP, since the 1970s, the proportion of cyclical sectors in the U.S. economy has declined year by year, while the proportion of consumption and technology sectors has steadily increased; Judging from the proportion of market value of various industries in the U.S. stock market, since the 1970s, the market value structure of the U.S. stock industry has gradually switched from industry and energy to consumer technology industries.<b>Looking at the long-term series, the market value structure of the U.S. stock market basically takes 10 years to switch significantly.</b></p><p><b>4.3 Investor structure: Institutional investors account for a high proportion, and passive investment strengthens the flexibility of popular stocks</b></p><p><b>The high proportion of institutional investors in U.S. stocks has boosted the market of popular stocks.</b>Judging from the investor structure disclosed by the Federal Reserve, U.S. institutional investors account for about 60% of the stock market value, which is significantly higher than 40% of retail investors. Under this caliber, household investors include a large number of individual major shareholders, so after excluding general legal persons, the proportion of institutional shareholding will be higher.<b>The shareholding ratio of retail investors is decreasing year by year. With the development of the stock market, there is a trend of \"de-retail investors\".</b></p><p><b>The development of pensions and mutual funds has accelerated the institutionalization of US stocks.</b>(1) U.S. personal account pensions (IRAs and DC plans) enter the market with bases to promote the institutionalization of U.S. stocks. In 1974, private pensions represented by IRAs and 401 (k) in the United States promoted the development of institutional investors: the proportion of private pensions continued to increase in the 1970s and 1990s, and the degree of institutionalization of U.S. stocks also increased significantly from about 20% to 40%. (2) In the 1990s, the scale of funds in the United States accelerated, and funds replaced pensions as the main driving force for the institutional development of U.S. stocks. The proportion of fund shareholdings in the United States continues to expand, especially since 2000, the proportion of funds has reached about 30%.</p><p><b>The scale of passive funds in U.S. stocks has increased, further boosting the market of popular stocks.</b>After 90 years, passive forces in the U.S. capital market have risen, and index funds have truly entered investors' field of vision. After the financial crisis in 2008, the expansion of passive products in the United States accelerated, starting to replace active products. At this time, the scale of passive products in the United States basically equals that of active products. The improvement of market institutionalization also makes it more difficult for actively managed funds to outperform, resulting in an increase in the proportion of passive funds.<b>We judge that the increase in the scale of passive investment will also aggravate the volatility of popular stocks to a certain extent. Against the background of continuous improvement in the profitability (expectation) of popular stocks, passive investment will strengthen the \"grouping\" of popular stocks.</b></p><p><b>4.4 Leading profit: High industry concentration improves leading performance and consolidates the performance foundation of popular stocks</b></p><p><b>The profitability of leading U.S. stocks is strong, and the profitability of leading stocks has long been stronger than that of non-leading stocks.</b>The profits of leading and non-leading U.S. stocks have gradually differentiated in recent years. The ROE of leading stocks with the highest circulating market capitalization is relatively stable, remaining at around 10%, while the ROE of stocks with smaller market capitalization has gradually dropped to about 5%, and the gap with leading stocks has widened. The leading profit advantage is significant.</p><p><b>The concentration of leading U.S. stocks continues to increase, strengthening the performance foundation of popular \"groupings\".</b>The operating income, net profit attributable to the parent company and market value of the U.S. technology stock FAANG have continued to increase as a proportion of the overall U.S. stock market (Nasdaq 100), increasing to 27.4%, 33% and 41.3% respectively in 20 years.<b>As the concentration of leading stocks increases, the trend of FAANG's stock price, revenue and profit ratio and market value ratio is more consistent.</b></p><p><b>4.5 Liquidity environment: The long-term low interest rate environment also supports FAANG's valuation to a certain extent</b></p><p><b>U.S. long-term interest rates continue to fall, bringing about a long-term bull market for U.S. stocks.</b>The long-term interest rate in the United States continues to be in a downward cycle. After several consecutive rounds of QE after the financial crisis, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has expanded significantly, further establishing the long-term low interest rate environment in the United States. Therefore, U.S. stocks, especially FAANG (& Tesla), can enjoy stable valuations for a long time. advantage. On the other hand, the continued expansion of U.S. government debt has also constrained the interest rate level from moving upward in a trend (expected), which will further support the stability of U.S. stock valuations.</p><p><b>The two major easing after the financial crisis in 2008 and the epidemic in 2020 have further pushed the valuation of popular group stocks in the United States to a higher level twice.</b>Three rounds of PE from 2008 to 2014 prompted global funds to return to the United States, passive funds accelerated their entry into the market, the valuation level of U.S. stocks continued to rise, and the valuation of high-quality leaders represented by FAANGT rose. During the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve restarted zero interest rate + QE to alleviate the liquidity crisis. Technology stocks represented by FAANGT benefited from immunity and expectations of easing liquidity, and their valuations rose sharply and continued to lead the gains.<b>The continued loose monetary policy of the United States has injected a large amount of liquidity into the market, laying a solid foundation for popular stocks to gather upward.</b></p><p><b>5</b></p><p><b>5.1 Industrial structure: the proportion of consumption and technology continues to rise</b></p><p><b>China's industrial structure: the proportion of consumption and technology continues to rise.</b>China's industrial structure is still in the process of transforming from industry to consumer service and technology industry. Since 2011, China's industrial structure has been optimized and upgraded. The profit proportion of enterprises in traditional industries has declined, while the profit proportion of consumer and technology companies has increased. At the same time, from 1996 to 2018, my country was far ahead of other major economies in the world with a compound growth rate of R&D expenditure of 20.597%. The development speed of the domestic tertiary industry was significantly improved, and the gap with the United States gradually narrowed.<b>With China's continuous investment in emerging industries and the support of national policies for new economic fields, the volume and proportion of China's consumption and technology industries will be further expanded, and it is expected to grow into pillar industries in the future.</b></p><p><b>5.2 Industrial structure: the proportion of consumption and technology continues to rise</b></p><p><b>The registration system reform will improve the stock market structure and improve the quality of listed companies.</b>The delisting rate of A-shares is significantly lower than that of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks, and an excellent market ecological environment with entry and exit has not yet been formed. At the end of December 2020, the strictest new delisting regulations issued by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges echoed the advancement of the registration system reform, and made detailed provisions on the scientific nature of delisting standards and the efficiency of the delisting process. After the implementation of the new delisting regulations, the delisting process of A-share market has been significantly accelerated, and the delisting rate has been significantly improved.<b>A strict and reasonable delisting system is expected to help A-shares form a good ecological environment, absorb the old and absorb the new, benchmark against the US stock market, and form a smoother two-way channel for entry and exit.</b></p><p><b>A-shares are in the early stage of economic transformation, and there is still a lot of room for growth in technology and consumer industries.</b>No matter from the perspective of market capitalization or profit proportion, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the scale of China's consumer and technology industries. (1) From the perspective of market value proportion, China's market value in information technology, healthcare, optional consumption and other fields is still significantly smaller than that of the United States, while the market value proportion of finance, industry, and materials industries is significantly higher than that of the United States, it can be seen that,<b>The market value structure of A shares/Hong Kong stocks still needs further adjustment.</b>(2) From the perspective of profit ratio, the profit ratio of China's cyclical and financial industries is also significantly higher than that of the United States, while the profit ratio of China's consumer and technology industries is significantly lower than that of the United States, which also shows that,<b>The structure of A-share/Hong Kong listed companies also needs to be adjusted.</b></p><p><b>At the same time, the internal market value structure and profit structure of A shares are also distorted to a certain extent.</b>In the market value structure of A-share listed companies, financial real estate and cyclical industries account for a relatively high proportion, while consumption and TMT account for a relatively low proportion; In the profit structure of A-share listed companies, the proportion of financial real estate and cyclical industries has further increased, while the profit proportion of consumer and TMT industries has been further squeezed.<b>We believe that the market value structure of the consumer and technology industries has been \"balanced\" (popular stocks are grouped together), but the profit structure of the consumer and technology industries is still distorted (caused by the unbalanced listing structure). With the gradual advancement of the registration system, more outstanding consumer and technology companies will go public, further balancing the market value structure and profit structure of A shares.</b></p><p><b>The market value of the consumer and technology industries is relatively high, but there is still much room for improvement in profits. It is hoped that the reform of the registration system will improve the matching between the stock market structure and the industrial structure.</b>Similarly, corresponding conclusions can be drawn from the industry level: the market value structure of A-shares has been partially \"balanced\" to a certain extent through the \"grouping\" of popular stocks, but the profit structure of A-shares is still dominated by traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and construction.<b>We judge that with the further advancement of the registration system reform, the proportion of outstanding consumer and technology companies listed will increase significantly, thus bringing about a relative match between A-share market value structure/profit structure and industrial structure.</b></p><p><b>5.3 Investor structure: A-share institutionalization, passive investment will strengthen the popular stock market</b></p><p><b>The institutionalization of A-shares is developing rapidly, but there is still much room.</b>The institutionalization of my country's A-share market has accelerated, and the proportion of institutional investors has increased in recent years, but it is still relatively low compared with the world, less than 40%. This means that there is still much room for development in China's institutionalization process.</p><p><b>Public funds, foreign capital and insurance funds constitute the three most important forces of A-share institutional investors.</b>The opening of Land-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the landing of MSCI have significantly accelerated the incremental capital of foreign capital in A shares. The issuance of more than 2 trillion partial equity funds in 2020 has made Public Offering of Fund's relay of foreign capital an important incremental fund in A-shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d14b390ec15a0ea2944167c772fa8a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The rise of China's pension has further accelerated the institutionalization of A-shares.</b>The scale and number of participants in my country's endowment insurance have been continuously and steadily expanding year by year since 2012. By 2019, the scale of endowment insurance for urban and rural residents exceeded 800 billion yuan, with 160 million people.<b>Drawing lessons from U.S. stocks, the development of personal account pensions is expected to drive the long-term transformation of my country's asset structure, provide a long-term and stable source of funds, and promote institutional development.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3832948e669bce8abb793b4c5df26fc\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A-shares are currently dominated by active funds, while passive products are still under development.</b>With the continuous maturity of the domestic market, it is increasingly difficult to defeat the market index and obtain excess returns through active management. In the past 10 years, the index fund product market has accelerated its development, the number of products has increased year by year, the scale of products has continued to expand, and the types of indexes tracked have become increasingly abundant. The total number of products issued in 2009 exceeded the sum of the number of products in all previous years, and reached more than 670 billion yuan at the peak of the bull market in 2015.<b>As the A-share market is included in the MSCI index system, the overall management scale of passive index funds will increase significantly again in the future, which will help improve the institutionalization level of A-shares and further strengthen the \"grouping\" market of popular stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecd15a112b262fbc6171b98c2e9226d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5.4 Leading profit: Industry concentration increases, and the stronger the industry leader is</b></p><p><b>The profitability of A-share leaders continues to improve, and the industry leaders are constantly strong.</b>With the deepening of supply-side reform, the increase of cost has brought structural changes to the industry. Leading enterprises have benefited from abundant funds, technical reserves and scale advantages, and finally achieved the overall improvement of industry concentration. With the improvement of the competitive landscape, the leading voice has gradually become obvious. Since 2017, the leading advantages of A-shares have been highlighted. Compared with the overall profitability (ROE, profit growth rate) of A-shares, the leading profit has outperformed the overall performance, and the ROE is nearly 4pct ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecbd55a8379e4af2e3b186bbfa73eca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5.5 Liquidity environment: \"Financial supply-side reform\" reduces entity financing costs, and northbound funds continue to flow in, which also helps to support core asset valuations in stages</b></p><p><b>\"Financial supply-side reform\" has significantly reduced entity financing costs: in the past three years, the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions in China has continued to decline.</b>Since the financial supply-side reform, China's credit increment has expanded significantly, and the growth rate of direct financing has been significantly higher than that of indirect financing for a long time. At the same time, financial supervision has been strengthened, the pressure of non-standard financing has dropped significantly, the stability of the financial system has been significantly improved, and the financing structure has continued to develop in a more balanced direction.<b>We judge that the \"financial supply-side reform\" has reduced the financing cost of entities, and to a certain extent, it has also consolidated the valuation foundation of China's core assets (even showed a tendency to bubble).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb6caf734459a6955c5203bf3b98357\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The global interest rate center has fallen, and the \"financial supply-side reform\" China's interest rate center will also enter a downward cycle.</b>The center of global long-term economic growth has moved downward, and the interest rate center has fallen simultaneously. Since 2002, the interest rate centers of other major economies have fallen by 130BP-390BP.<b>China's real estate boom cycle supports China's interest rate level. With the \"housing for living, not speculation\", the downward discount rate drives the financial supply side slow bull.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3287ecdf113a2683f8e05d5f44b3a14b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the past 16 years, the continuous inflow of funds from the north can continue to strengthen the popular stock market of A shares to a certain extent.</b>Data from the past 16 years show that the marginal change of the net inflow of funds to the north is basically related to the RMB exchange rate, but this correlation has weakened relatively since the past 20 years.<b>We believe that as the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation continues to rise, the expectation of continued inflow of northbound funds will be enhanced.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865712845fc3d18506244f10622f353c\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>However, the \"taste\" of northbound funds is constantly changing, and the support for core assets may not be sustainable.</b>From the data point of view, the inflow of capital to the north in 20 years was mainly concentrated in core assets (food and beverage/medicine/electronics, etc.), but in 21 years, the inflow of capital to the north increased marginally, and the direction of insufficient inflow is no longer a typical core asset, but banks/Pharmaceutical/chemical and other sectors.<b>Therefore, we believe that the expected strengthening of capital inflows from the north may support the valuation of core assets in stages. However, due to the dynamic changes in the \"taste\" of capital from the north, the support for the valuation of popular A-share stocks may definitely continue.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab98526b207faffe0311e5fdd00bd8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/113a47f3dd8191058e652d0db68014d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6</b></p><p><b>The \"grouping\" of popular A-share stocks is not sustainable: the driving force is constantly switching, the high performance growth is not sustainable</b><b>6.1 FAANG experience reference: Profit margin drive is an important reason for the long-term \"grouping\" of popular stocks</b></p><p><b>The ROE of U.S. stocks FAANG continues to rise, and the \"grouping\" of popular stocks is fundamentally due to the continuous improvement of profit margins.</b>FAANGT's ROE has increased significantly since 2012. Based on DuPont's three-factor dismantling, the increase in ROE is mainly contributed by the net sales profit margin, and the two trends are highly correlated. The increase in ROE was dragged down by the decline in asset turnover rate.<b>We believe that compared with the narrow fluctuations in leverage ratio and turnover ratio, the continued rise in ROE is mainly driven by profit margins.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de00fff483922cbad7a5715ed3ddfc3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6.2 Driven by the policy of \"high-quality development\", enterprises will start a new cycle of profit margin recovery</b></p><p><b>High-quality development/mixed finance/supply and demand gap, A-shares will start a new round of profit margin recovery cycle. We pointed out in \"\" Stabilizing \"Private Enterprises and\" Prospering \"Manufacturing\" released on April 29, 2019: High-quality development (transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing) will increase the profit margins of A-share listed companies in the medium and long term</b>--The driving force of China's economic growth, bounded by the 2008 financial crisis, can be divided into turnover rate drive and leverage ratio drive. Before 2008, with the east wind of China's accession to the WTO, China's economy was mainly export-oriented, and the turnover rate rose sharply and continued to improve the ROE level; After the 2008 financial crisis, China's economy became more dependent on real estate, infrastructure and leverage, and maintained a relatively high ROE level by increasing the leverage ratio. At present, China's economy is getting closer and closer to the inflection point of the long debt cycle, and its economy is the second largest in the world. It is difficult to maintain a high ROE level by increasing leverage or high turnover. Starting from the three factors of ROE DuPont, the transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing can enhance the position of Chinese enterprises in the global \"value chain\", which can improve the profit margin level (technological content) of enterprises in the medium and long term.<b>We wrote on 2020.4.21 \"Hybrid Finance, Can A-shares carve a boat and seek a sword?\" Pointed out: In 20 years, China's finance will take into account \"investment-oriented/consumption-oriented\" and will also improve the profit margin level of enterprises (especially consumer/technology manufacturing)</b>--Compared with the \"4 trillion\" investor finance-driven real estate/infrastructure plus leverage (leverage ratio) in 2008, we judge that the 20-year mixed finance has supported the economy to \"grow steadily\", and it is oriented to enterprise rescue and residents' rescue. By stimulating consumer demand (and supporting the investment of some manufacturing enterprises), the profit margin of the consumption/manufacturing industry will be raised (improving ROE).<b>Our index in 2021.1.18 \"Looking at the Industry's\" Supply and Demand Gap \"from a Production Capacity Perspective\" and 2021.3.19 \"Looking at\" Carbon Neutral \"Investment Opportunities from a Production Capacity Perspective\": The expansion of the \"Supply and Demand Gap\" in 21 years and pro-cyclical price increases will support pro-cyclical enterprises in the short term. Profit margins continue to be high</b>--Under the \"supply-side reform\" in 16-17 years and the normalization policy of supply contraction in 18 years, the production capacity (year-on-year growth rate of fixed assets) of enterprises has continued to be low, while the capacity utilization rate has rebounded from a high level. The high capacity utilization rate keeps the company's operation in a state of \"tight balance between supply and demand\" for a long time. Therefore, whether it is the \"post-epidemic\" demand recovery or the \"carbon neutral\" supply contraction, it will lead to the expansion of the \"supply and demand gap\" of the company, which in turn will bring Procyclical price increases/expectations (rising profit margins).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a32432dd6e9bcbead0e33bd5d76678\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing will boost the profit margins of technology manufacturing and some consumption (upgrading) industries.</b>Benefiting from the continuous endogenous transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, coupled with the reshaping of the global supply chain after the \"COVID-19\" epidemic, it has also brought about a year-on-year improvement in China's manufacturing market share & profit margin level (pricing power). We believe that as policies begin to strengthen the upgrading of high-end manufacturing, midstream manufacturing will usher in further endogenous/exogenous transformation and upgrading.<b>The profit margin level of high-end manufacturing leaders (new energy vehicles/semiconductors/equipment manufacturing) has further improved.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26db5325806194701daf850aea363775\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6.3 The transformation and upgrading of China's high-end manufacturing will continue to improve the profit margin of the consumer/technology manufacturing industry</b></p><p><b>Based on DuPont's three-factor dismantling, increasing the profit margin of China's manufacturing industry is the best option to maintain high economic growth.</b>At present, China's economy is getting closer and closer to the inflection point of the long debt cycle, and its economy is the second largest in the world. It is difficult to maintain a high ROE level by increasing leverage or high turnover. In terms of profit margin, Chinese manufacturing is \"big but not strong\", and virtues occupy the main position in the high-end manufacturing chain in the international division of labor gradient pattern.<b>China's manufacturing industry is still in the middle and low end of the global value chain, and there is much room for development in high-end industries.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419fcc08ae7be3d4fa5ec9285d183a51\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Comparing the ROE structures of China and the United States, the profitability of U.S. stocks continues to be higher than that of China: mainly because U.S. companies occupy a high position in the global value chain, while Chinese companies win by \"volume\", and their sales profit margins are much lower than those of the United States.</b>Through DuPont dismantling, it can be seen that the asset turnover rate and asset-liability ratio of A-shares excluding finance are significantly higher than those of S&P 500, which is determined by the high turnover and high leverage business model of Chinese enterprises;<b>However, most A-share listed companies are still at the bottom of the global division of labor system, and their gross profit margins are relatively low, resulting in the sales profit margin of A-shares excluding finance being much lower than that of the S&P 500.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5a94381654059f93690bb90e12d4b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2417b527feb1c308c8693ab0206aa2d6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The gross profit margin of sub-sectors whose profit margin in China is significantly lower than that in the United States is expected to increase, among which high-end manufacturing is the main foothold for China to reshape the global value chain.</b>We compared the profit margins of various industries in China and the United States, and divided China's industries into three categories-<b>(1) China is still in a backward industry in the international \"value chain\" (high-end manufacturing)</b>Most of them are areas supported by the \"Made in China 2025\" strategy; (2) China's industries (general consumer goods + low-end manufacturing) that are basically in line with the United States in the international \"value chain\", most of which belong to the relatively low-end varieties in the global value chain, and it is difficult for China and the United States to widen the gap; (3) Due to market structure and industry monopoly, China's profit margin in some industries is higher than that of the United States (durable goods consumption industry + biomedical industry + financial industry), mainly benefiting from China's consumption upgrading or monopolized industrial environment, and its profit margin is significantly higher than that of the corresponding industries in the United States.<b>Therefore, the main growth space of China's economy in the future is that the profit margin is significantly lower than that of the high-end manufacturing industry in the United States.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efd979ffa6ce0f4c7bd76985342ae883\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Compared with Japan and South Korea, the profit margin of China's mid-range manufacturing industry is still low, and there is also a catch-up market.</b>According to the GICS industry group, we compared the profit margins of China and mid-range manufacturing countries represented by Japan and South Korea. We can also divide China's industries into three categories-<b>(1) China is still in a backward industry in the international \"value chain\" (mid-end manufacturing industry)</b>。 (2) China's industries that are basically in line with Japan and South Korea in the international \"value chain\" (general consumer goods + low-end manufacturing), some of which belong to the relatively low-end varieties in the global value chain, and there is basically no gap with Japan and South Korea; (3) Due to market structure and industry monopoly, China's profit margins in some industries are higher than those of Japan and South Korea (durable goods consumption industry + biomedical industry + financial industry).<b>Accordingly, we believe that China has certain room for development in the mid-range manufacturing industry. And the improvement of profit margins in consumption and technology industries will provide new kinetic energy for China's economic growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615d804a880f86f87e719e8039d63f6c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22bced60cd591b2889ab8671338ecc38\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7、</b><b><b>Risk warning</b></b></p><p>There is still the risk of recurrence of the global epidemic, especially the COVID-19 pandemic variation will bring greater uncertainty; The mutation/recurrence of the epidemic may cause the global economic recovery to fall short of expectations and affect China's export resilience; Global/China inflation is high and liquidity may tighten marginally (as expected by US taper); There is still strong uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127282568","content_text":"报告摘要\n引言：微观结构调整后，如何看A股热门股行情的持续性？\n短期来看，A股“微观结构”修复行至半程但仍未达健康状态，热门股行情仍受掣肘。中长期来看，中国高质量发展将强化产业结构稳定性，消费/科技制造业绩（利润率）有望持续高增长，热门股行情也将中期延续。\n为何美股FAANG长期“抱团”，而A股热门股3-5年切换一次？\n美股以及FAANGT基本是由盈利驱动的，这使得热门股行情可持续；A股龙头（行业龙头指数）主要由估值驱动，部分导致热门股行情不可持续。\n美股FAANG“抱团”可持续：业绩维持高增长。\n2000年以来FAANGT持续获得超额收益，期间也出现过阶段性回调，但强劲的盈利（预期）都会带来显著反弹。我们判断，FAANGT的业绩高增长源于：（移动）互联网红利、海外业务扩张、股份回购增强EPS。\n历史上A股热门股“抱团”不持续的背景：驱动力不断切换，业绩高增长不可持续。\n中国是追赶型经济体，产业结构每隔3-5年就会切换，A股连续高成长公司极少。从ROE杜邦拆解来看，企业盈利的驱动力相继从周转率到杠杆率再到利润率切换，导致不同板块的业绩优势“此消彼长”，热门股也在周期/消费制造/科技/消费服务中不断切换。\n美股“抱团”可持续的时代背景：美国是“领先型”经济体，产业结构稳定，企业盈利（利润率驱动）持续高增长。\n2000年以来，美国产业结构以科技互联网为主，造就了FAANGT行情。稳定的产业结构也带来稳定的美股结构。美国机构投资者占比高，也会强化热门股的“抱团”行情。同时，美股龙头盈利能力强，行业集中度不断提高、持续宽松的流动性环境，也在夯实FAANGT盈利能力/“抱团”的持续性。\n时代背景变迁加速A股美股化：中国逐步转向“领先型”经济体，产业结构稳定性增强，企业盈利能力（利润率驱动）也将持续改善。\n中国消费和科技的产业结构比重逐步抬升。从市值结构来看，热门股“抱团”行业已经提升了消费/科技的市值结构；随着注册制改革推进，A股消费/科技的利润结构也将得到优化。中国投资者也在加速机构化，被动投资也会强化热门股行情。同时，龙头集中度提高以及贴现率下行趋势，也会夯实热门股“抱团”的业绩和估值基础。\nROE杜邦拆解看A股热门股“抱团”方向：消费/科技制造。\n借鉴FAANGT经验，利润率驱动热门股长期“抱团”。高质量发展/混合型财政/供需缺口，A股将开启新一轮利润率回升周期。对比中美/日/韩，中国的消费行业（食品/医药/耐用消费品等）利润率水平处于相对高位，会持续受益于大众消费升级；而科技制造业（半导体/软件/装备制造等）利润率水平则处于相对低位，也将受益于高端制造升级。\n风险提示：\n疫情反复，经济不及预期，流动性收紧，中美关系不确定。\n\n引言\n微观结构调整后，如何看A股热门股行情的持续性？\n短期来看，A股热门股行情仍受掣肘：“微观结构”修复行至半程但仍未达健康状态。我们2.24我们发布《扩散升级》全市场率先提出：“市场微观结构出了问题”，并持续发布系列报告：《微观结构恶化—历史与影响》、《如何观测市场微观结构》、《从微观结构看美债和A股》、《微观结构恶化的成因与展望》。当前，A股“微观结构”修复行至半程但仍未达到健康状态——（1）前5%个股成交额占全部A股比重已经从2月高点的49.7%回落到了当前的42.1%，但仍高于17年以来中枢的36.3%。（2）茅指数从2月高点最高回撤23.8%，但3月末以来已经有所反弹（茅指数高点以来整体回撤幅度15.3%，wind全A回撤5.2%）。（3）当前A股热门股（A150指数）的估值仍处于16年末北上资金大幅流入以来的均值+1倍标准差的高位，而A股非金融剔除A150的估值则仍处于历史均值以下。\n\n中长期维度下：为何美股FAANG从2000年以来长期“抱团”，而A股热门股每隔3-5年切换一次？美国是“领先型”经济体，产业结构稳定业绩持续高增长带来FAANG长期抱团，而中国是“追赶型”经济体，A股热门股业绩高增长较难持续，每隔3-5年会切换一次——美国是“领导型”经济体，产业结构稳定且处于全球“价值链”上游，企业能够持续稳定赚取高额的利润率，同时，美国企业也受益于（移动）互联网红利、海外业务扩张、股份回购增强EPS，进一步稳定企业的盈利能力。而中国是“追赶型”经济体，产业结构持续变迁（周转率驱动à杠杆率驱动à利润率驱动），企业盈利较难持续高增长，多数公司维持业绩高增长的年份大概在3-5年左右。\n我们判断：中国高质量发展，逐步从“追赶型”经济体转向“领先型”经济体，产业结构稳定性增强，利润率持续改善的消费/科技制造的“抱团”行情有望延续。中国消费和科技的产业结构比重逐步抬升。随着注册制改革推进，A股消费/科技制造行业的利润结构也将得到优化。中国投资者也在加速机构化，被动投资也会强化热门股行情。同时，行业集中度提高以及贴现率下行的长期趋势，也会夯实热门股“抱团”的业绩和估值基础。借鉴FAANG经验，利润率驱动是热门股长期“抱团”的重要原因。“混合型”财政/“国内大循环”/高端制造升级将会开启中国消费/科技制造业较长利润率回升周期。A股长期“抱团”方向：利润率潜在改善的大众消费和高端制造。\n\n报告正文\n1\n为何美股FAANG长期“抱团”，而A股热门股3-5年切换一次？1.12000年以来，美股FAANG持续“抱团”\n2000年以来，美股热门股FAANG持续跑赢纳斯达克指数。FAANGT（FAANG+Tesla）指数自2000年起呈现稳步上升趋势。FAANG相对于纳斯达克指数也持续获得超额收益，仅10-13年有所回撤。14年以来，无论是绝对收益还是相对收益，FAANG指数都持续占优（疫情爆发之后，FAANG指数有绝对收益，但相对收益不太显著）。\n\n1.2A股的热门股每隔3-5年切换一次：五朵金花->地产基建->消费制造->TMT->消费服务/科技\n从2000年以来，A股的热门股出现过大致6次切换，基本是每隔3-5年会有一次热门股轮动。A股热门股在过去20年里不断迭代，每一轮热门股行情都基本映射了当时鲜明的时代背景——（1）2000年初中国加入WTO，外贸型经济带来了以煤炭、钢铁、有色等为代表的“五朵金花”行情；（2）08年金融危机之后，“4万亿”财政刺激计划带来了地产和基建的“加杠杆”行情；（3）在10-12年的盈利下行周期中，消费制造业的盈利能力超越周期品，引领了白酒、汽车和医药的消费股行情；（4）13-15年外延式并购爆发，则带来了计算机、电子为代表的科技股行情；（5）16年以来随着行业集中度进一步抬升，白酒、家电等蓝筹龙头股再次行为市场“新宠”；（6）19年“金融供给侧改革”降低实体融资成本，贴现率下行叠加中美贸易摩擦，半导体、医药等自主可控板块又持续受到市场追捧。由此可见，由于中国是典型的追赶型经济体，随着产业结构不断变迁，资本市场的热门股也会持续切换，在一定程度上带来中美热门股的核心差异：美国FAANG行情能够持续长达20年，而中国的热门股行情则每隔3-5年就会面临一次重新“洗牌”。\n\n1.3美股FAANG主要由盈利驱动、A股热门股主要由估值驱动\n美股整体由盈利驱动，而A股整体在2010年以后基本由估值驱动。我们拆解了美股（纳斯达克指数）和A股（上证综指）过去20年的年度涨跌幅的驱动因素，可以看到：（1）美股年度收益率在多数年份是由盈利驱动的，只有在少数年份由估值驱动（仅有03年、09年、13年、17年和20年）；（2）A股的年度收益率在2010年以前基本是由盈利驱动的（增量经济时代），而在2010年以后则基本由估值驱动（存量经济时代）。\n\n美股FAANG主要由盈利驱动，而A股龙头则主要由估值驱动。我们进一步拆解了美股FAANG（&Tesla）和A股龙头（行业龙头指数）年度涨跌幅的驱动因素，也得到了类似的结论：（1）美股FAANG主要由盈利驱动，仅在部分年度由估值驱动（09年、12年、15年和20年）；（2）A股龙头（行业龙头指数）基本是由估值驱动的（行业龙头指数从18年开始才同时具有估值和盈利数据） 。\n\n2\n美股FAANG“抱团”可持续：业绩维持高增长2.12000年以来FAANG长期“抱团”，但也出现过阶段性回落\n美股FAANG（&Tesla）历史上出现过几次阶段性“共性的”回调。2000年以来，FAANG以及特斯拉共有8次共同的大幅度的“共性的”回调（即部分时间段多数公司基于市场共同的原因一起回调）：比如20年“科网泡沫”破裂导致了2次共性的回调；08年金融危机也导致了非常显著的共性回调；14年开始美联储启动缩表进程后，FAANG（&Tesla）也在随后的几年当中出现了几次较为显著的共性的回调。20年疫情全球蔓延的2-3月以及随后的9月，FAANG（&Tesla）也出现了较为显著的共性的回调。\n\n除了“共性的”回调以外，部分FAANG（&Tesla）个股也出现过“个性的”回调。FAANG（&Tesla）总共有13次“个性的”回调（即特定时间段只有个别公司基于公司本身逻辑出现的单独的回调）。其中，亚马逊和Netflix发生“个性的”单独回调的次数相对较多。从数据上来看，FAANG（&Tesla）的“共性的”回调相比于“个性的”回调，其回调幅度一般会更大。由此可见，FAANG的“抱团”呈现出较强的一致性，个别公司阶段性波动（回调）对整体的影响较小。\n\n2.2“抱团”成因：业绩持续高增长\nFAANG（&Tesla）每次“共性的”回调之后，强劲的盈利修复（预期）都会带来显著的反弹。宏观环境边际恶化，美股热门股阶段“共性的”回调——2000年科网泡沫破灭、08年金融危机、14年开始的美联储缩表，20年新冠疫情爆发等负面事件对于全球经济造成巨大的冲击，美股热门股在内的全球股市出现普遍回调。强劲的盈利修复预期带来FAANG（&Tesla）显著反弹——FAANG（&Tesla）2000年以来发生过多次“共性的”回调，但每次回调后股价都会较快反弹并创新高。我们总结了FAANG（&Tesla）反弹的原因，可以看到，较为强劲的盈利能力是主要驱动力。\n\n我们判断，FAANG（&Tesla）强劲的盈利能力主要来自于：（移动）互联网红利、海外业务扩张、股份回购增强EPS——\n（1）（移动）互联网红利：2000年以来的互联网红利和2010年以来的移动互联网红利，持续优化FAANG（&Tesla）的盈利（预期）。1990年代以来，美国便已占据了信息技术的科技高点，持续享受互联网红利，“科网泡沫”破裂后，部分互联网公司（谷歌、亚马孙等）的盈利能力得到不断验证，逐步成为市场“抱团”的焦；2009-11年移动互联网时代开启，推动FAANG的盈利进入加速上行期。具有研发优势的科技股在09-11年和18-19年业绩均有大爆发，尤其FAANG的净利润增长强劲：09年12月-11年12月以及18年3月-19年3月，FAANGT归母净利润分别涨超200%和50%。\n\n（2）海外业务扩展：FAANG不断扩宽海外市场，海外营收占比逐年增加。FAANG和特斯拉上市以来，海外营收占比总体从0%（除谷歌和脸书在30%左右）逐步提高至50-60%。全球化布局带来了持续强劲的盈利能力。\n\n（3）股份回购：利润水平较高的情况下，进一步增强FAANG（&Tesla）的EPS。企业回购会减少股票数量，在（移动）互联网红利下，FAANG（&Tesla）的盈利能力持续改善，而股份回购能够进一步强化这些公司的EPS。同时，股份回购也会在一定程度上提振投资者信心，增强FAANG（&Tesla）公司股价的稳定性。从FAANG历年回购金额同比变动趋势和EPS走势看较为接近，回购反映在EPS的增长上具有一定的时滞性：13年起，FAANG整体的回购规模大幅提高，对应EPS也逐步提升，18年起回购金额和EPS均维持在相对高位。\n\n2.3案例分析：苹果、亚马逊、特斯拉的长期“抱团”，也源于业绩的高成长性\n（1）苹果：新机型销量不佳而研发成本攀升，业绩下滑引发股价腰斩。13年二季度巨额现金回购加持EPS成为股价反弹的主要推动因素。\n新机型销量不佳而研发成本攀升，业绩下滑引发股价下跌。iPhone5发布后销量不佳，12年四季度销量仅为2700万台，低于市场预期1000-1500万台。同时，由于在世界范围内开设大量旗舰店，雇佣更多的员工，调整产品线等一系列原因，苹果的营业成本和营业开支大幅攀升，导致苹果四季度利润增速大幅减少，ROE下行，引起股价的一波下跌。从2012年9月开始的约半年间，苹果股价最多跌去44%，近乎腰斩。\n\n巨额现金回购加持EPS推动股价反弹。2013年4月底，苹果在发布二季报的同时宣布开启千亿回馈股东计划——在2015年底之前，向股东返还1000亿美元，方法是通过股票回购和分红计划：600亿美元回购股票，近三年每年300亿美元的分红。号称史上最强回馈股东行动让投资者重拾信心，引领了一波股价的大幅反弹。\n（2）亚马逊：低预期财报导致股价回调，超预期财报带来股价强势反弹，高成长性开启长牛\n2011年10月亚马逊的股价大幅回调是低预期季报的发布和股民对亚马逊未来盈利能力的不确定导致。2011年第三季度的部分收益下滑是由于Kindle Fire的意外高销售所致，亚马逊对Kindle采用了“柯达策略”，通过亏本卖出Kindle而利用之后持续的书籍电影消费获利。此时，股民不理解这种策略并通过股价反应了对亚马逊未来盈利能力的不确定。\n2012年4月亚马逊打破了华尔街对第一季度的预期并且第三方销售的增长为公司带来收入增长，股价强势反弹。亚马逊2012年第一季度得到营业收入增长，股民看到了亚马逊的策略和不断的改良，通过此次财报对亚马逊的盈利能力恢复信心。\n亚马逊的收入增长得益于其市占率不断的提升和个人账户收益的大幅增长。通过亚马逊2012年第一季度的财报披露发现，和同类型的网购平台Ebay相比，亚马逊的市占率不断提升，同时亚马逊的平均个人账户收益也得到了大幅增长。这意味着亚马逊已经形成了良好的盈利模式，并且随着市场份额的不断提升，有望占取互联网零售平台的龙头位置。\n（3）特斯拉：油价下跌压制股价，自燃事件加速回调，成长性受市场认可后反弹\n2015年特斯拉股价腰斩：2015年7月20日至2016年2月9日，特斯拉股价大幅回调，跌幅达46.02%，同期纳指跌幅为18.07%：\n（1）一方面特斯拉能源储存系统业务的上线叠加原油价格处在低位的行业环境，使得特斯拉的经营风险陡增，整个行业发展面临前所未有的困境——2014年9月到2016年11月期间，特斯拉股价与布伦特原油价格具有强正相关性，原油价格的低迷利好燃油车，但却增加了特斯拉的经营风险，特斯拉股价与油价几乎同步下行。（2）另一方面车辆自燃事故加速冲击股价——2016年1月1日一辆特斯拉Model S在挪威耶尔斯塔的超级充电站充电时发生火灾，事后股价接近腰斩。\n特斯拉股价从自燃事件澄清后反弹，成长性受到市场认可。直到2016年2月7日后，德国联邦汽车交通局（KBA）才澄清2016年1月1日的起火事件与特斯拉无关，特斯拉股价开始反弹。\n尽管受到油价、事故等负面因素影响，特斯拉成长性受到市场的进一步认可，带动股价上升——（1）特斯拉加速拓宽产品类型。Model X车型在2015年Q4开始的批量交付和入门电动车型Model 3的发布，使特斯拉得以进军休旅电动车市场与入门电动车市场，进一步丰富产品线。（2）在负面新闻缠身阶段，特斯拉持续提高出货量，成长性获认可。2013Q1到2017Q1，特斯拉出货量翻了5倍，由4900辆上涨到25000辆，其中15年Q2、Q3超预期出货，Q4出货量大幅增加，全年交付量超过50000台，完成了年初制定的目标，助力股价反弹。17Q3特斯拉全球共完成交付约2.5万台车辆，同比增长69%，创造公司最高单季度销量记录，也高于市场预期的2.4万台，股价创新高。\n3\n3.1中国是追赶型经济体，产业结构不断切换，导致企业盈利很难长期高增长\n改革开放以来中国的高速增长属于典型的追赶型增长，产业结构每隔3-5年就会切换。中国产业结构的扩张与调整是一个有深厚积累且不断提高附加值的过程：从最初的能源、基础原材料到工业中间品、化工，再到消费品与工业品，然后是高附加值的产品、工业品，再到近来大力发展以娱乐、金融、软件为代表的附加值最高的服务业。\n映射到资本市场上，A股连续高成长公司极少，而这些“成长股”往往蕴含于发生结构性改善的行业之中。2000-2019年间，A股连续五年及以上年净利润高于30%的高成长公司仅有186家，这些公司并不一定是科技类的新兴产业：其中69家公司属于周期性行业，占比37%，60家公司属于传统消费品行业，占比35%，代表新兴产业的TMT与服务板块共57家。随着科技、服务产业结构性改善，TMT与服务板块高成长公司数量有增长趋势。\n3.2 A股盈利高增长不可持续的核心原因：盈利能力的驱动力不断切换（周转率->杠杆率->利润率）\nROE杜邦拆解来看，A股盈利的驱动因素不断切换，导致公司盈利能力不可持续。自2000年以来A股上市公司盈利能力首先由周转率驱动（加入WTO融入“外循环”）转向杠杆率驱动（08年金融危机-“4万亿”刺激基建），13年回到周转率驱动（金融/实体供给侧改革“内外再均衡”）。我们判断：未来伴随着中国高端制造全球“价值链”升级，利润率抬升将作为驱动经济增长的新动能。\n3.3 大类板块盈利能力“此消彼长”，导致热门股“抱团”不断切换\n08年以后消费股ROE超越周期股，消费股的估值也相对于周期股明显上台阶。消费股的ROE在2008年以后开始超越周期股，消费股相对周期股的估值中枢也发生了抬升。盈利结构性改善的消费行业，享受盈利和估值的双重推动。\n2013到2015年，TMT相对消费的ROE显著提升，TMT的相对估值也明显上台阶。12年后中国进入存量经济模式，经济增速减缓使得分子端预期利润增速下行，传统消费行业的盈利波动幅度收敛，13年以来的科技股外延式并购带来TMT/消费的ROE逐步提升。随之而来的，TMT/消费的相对估值也开始明显抬升。\n19年以来，消费相对A股非金融的ROE再次进入回升周期，消费（龙头）持续受投资者追捧，估值中枢上移。16-17年的供给侧改革和18年的金融供给侧改革后，杠杆率与周转率趋势性改善的行业寥寥，A股寻找赚“利润率”的钱成为相对最优解。中国优势的消费行业，尤其是必需消费行业，利润率显著领先欧美等发达国家，具备较高的“性价比”，受到北上资金和险资的青睐，在19年的“抱团”行情之后，估值水平和基金持仓集中度都大幅抬升。\n4\n4.1  产业结构：从消费到科技，都能维持长期的稳定性，成为FAANG（Tesla）行业持续性的基础\n1970-2000，消费跑赢；2000年以后，科技跑赢。美国的产业结构从上世纪70年代以来都比较稳定，基本以消费和科技为主，其中：上世纪70年代-90年代美国消费行业占主导；2000年以来美国科技行业占主导。稳定的产业结构提供了美股中长期配置的基础。（1）上世纪70-90年代消费为主的产业结构带来了美国“漂亮50”的长期行情；（2）2000年以来科技为主的产业结构带来了FAANG（&Tesla）的长期行情。\n 消费和科技行业能够获得长期的超额收益。73年至今，美股年化收益率最高的行业集中消费和科技行业：航空和国防10.9%、软件和计算机服务10.8%、休闲旅游9.8%、一般零售业9.8%、电子电器设备9.4%、卫生保健9.3%、食品和药品零售9.2%、食品饮料8.9%。\n产业结构变迁支撑科技板块实现长期高收益。在经济增长中枢的下台阶和经济结构的转型过程中，美股市场中科技行业增加值在GDP占比中不断提升，传统行业在GDP占比中不断减少。具体表现为，代表传统经济的产业，其增加值占GDP的比重出现趋势性下行（钢铁、采掘、有色、机械、汽车、电气设备等）。而业绩和增加值占GDP比重能够保持高速增长的，集中在新科技产业中。美股产业结构的变迁支撑成长股盈利能力增长可持续，成为驱动科技长牛的关键。\n4.2股市结构：长期稳定，每隔10年才会切换一次，也会带来热门股行情的长期稳定性\n 美国产业结构的稳定性，带来股市结构的稳定性。从各行业增加值占GDP比重变化来看，上世纪70年代以来，美国经济中周期板块占比逐年下降，而消费和科技等板块占比稳步提升；从美股各行业市值占比看，上世纪70年代以来，美股行业的市值结构也逐步从工业、能源向消费科技行业切换。长时间序列来看，美股的行业市值结构，基本是10年才会出现较为明显的切换。\n4.3投资者结构：机构投资者占比高，被动型投资强化热门股的弹性\n  美股机构投资者占比高，助推热门股行情。从美联储披露的投资者结构来看，美国机构投资者持股市值占比60%左右，显著高于散户投资者40%，且该口径下家庭投资者包含大量个人大股东，因此剔除一般法人后的机构持股占比会更高。散户持股比例逐年下降，随着股票市场的发展，呈现出“去散户化”的趋势。\n养老金和共同基金的发展加速美股机构化。（1）美国个人账户养老金（IRAs和DC计划）持基入市，推动美股机构化。美国1974年以IRAs和401(k)为代表的私人养老金推动了机构投资者的发展：私人养老金占比在70年代-90年代不断提高，美股机构化程度也从20%左右大幅提升至40%。（2）美国90年代基金规模加速上行，基金接替养老金成为美股机构化发展的主要推动力量。美国基金持股占比不断扩大，尤其2000年至今，基金占比达30%左右。\n美股被动资金规模增大，进一步助推热门股行情。90年以后，美国资本市场被动力量崛起，指数基金真正进入投资者视野。08年金融危机后，美国被动型产品加速扩容，开启了对主动产品的替代。此时，美国国内的被动产品规模基本追平主动性产品。而市场机构化程度的提升也使主动性管理基金跑赢的难度增加，导致被动型基金占比的提升。我们判断：被动投资规模增大，在一定程度上也会加剧热门股的波动性。在热门股盈利能力（预期）持续改善的背景下，被动投资会强化热门股“抱团”。\n4.4龙头盈利：行业集中度高提升龙头业绩，夯实热门股业绩基础\n美股龙头盈利能力强，龙头股盈利长期强于非龙头。美股龙头与非龙头盈利近年来逐渐分化，流通市值靠前的龙头股ROE较为稳定，保持在10%左右，而市值较小的个股ROE逐步下降至5%左右，和龙头股差距拉大，美股龙头盈利优势显著。\n美股龙头股的集中度不断提高，强化热门“抱团”的业绩基础。美股科技股FAANG的营业收入、归母净利润和市值占美股整体（纳斯达克100）比例均持续提升，20年分别增至27.4%、33%和41.3%。随着龙头股集中度提高，FAANG的股价走势，营收利润占比和市值占比的趋势更加一致。\n4.5流动性环境：长期低利率环境在一定程度上也支撑了FAANG的估值\n美国长端利率持续回落，带来美股长期牛市。美国长端利率持续处于下行周期中，金融危机后的连续几轮QE，美联储资产负债表大幅扩张，进一步奠定了美国长期低利率环境，因此，美股尤其是FAANG（&Tesla）可以长期享受稳定估值的优势。另一方面，美国政府债务规模持续扩张，也约束了利率水平很难趋势性上移（预期），也会进一步支撑美股估值的稳定性。\n08年金融危机后和20年疫情后的两次大宽松，进一步推动美国热门抱团股估值两次上台阶。2008-2014年三轮PE促使全球资金回流美国，被动资金加速入场，美股估值水平持续上行，以FAANGT为代表的优质龙头估值抬升。2020年疫情期间美联储重启零利率+QE，缓解流动性危机，以FAANGT为代表的科技股受益于免疫及流动性宽松预期，估值大幅抬升，持续领涨。美国持续宽松的货币政策向市场注入了大量的流动性，夯实了热门股抱团向上的基础。\n5\n5.1产业结构：消费和科技占比持续抬升\n中国产业结构：消费和科技占比持续抬升。我国产业结构仍处于从工业向消费服务和科技产业转型的过程中。2011年开始中国产业结构优化升级，传统行业企业利润占比下滑，消费和科技公司的利润占比上升。同时，1996至2018，我国以20.597%的研发支出复合增速遥遥领先于全球其他主要经济体，国内第三产业发展速度得以明显提升，与美国的差距逐步缩小。随着我国对新兴产业的持续投入，以及国家政策对新经济领域的扶持，我国消费和科技产业的体量和占比将进一步扩大，未来有望成长为支柱型产业。\n5.2产业结构：消费和科技占比持续抬升\n注册制改革将改善股市结构，提高上市公司质量。A股退市率显著低于港股和美股的水平，还未形成有进有出的优良的市场生态环境。2020年12月底，沪深交易所发布的最严退市新规与注册制改革的推进相呼应，对于退市标准的科学性和退市流程的高效性等方面做出细节规定。退市新规实施后，A股市场退市进程明显加快，退市率得到显著提高。严格合理的退市制度有望帮助A股形成良好的生态环境，吐故纳新，对标美股市场，形成进出双向更为通畅的通道。\nA股处于经济转型初期，科技和消费产业还有很大的成长空间。无论从市值占比还是从利润占比的角度来看，中国的消费和科技行业的规模仍有很大的提升空间。（1）从市值占比的角度来看，中国在信息技术、医疗保健、可选消费等领域的市值规模仍明显小于美国，而金融、工业、和材料等行业的市值占比则明显高于美国，由此可见，A股/港股的市值结构仍需进一步调整。（2）从利润占比的角度来看，中国的周期和金融行业的利润占比也明显高于美国，而中国的消费和科技行业的利润占比则明显低于美国，也显示出，A股/港股上市公司结构也待调整。\n同时，A股内部的市值结构和利润结构也存在一定程度的扭曲。在A股上市公司的市值结构中，金融地产和周期行业的占比相对较高，而消费和TMT的占比相对较低；在A股上市公司的利润结构中，金融地产和周期行业的占比进一步抬升，而消费和TMT行业的利润占比被进一步挤压。我们认为：消费和科技行业的市值结构已经有所“均衡化”（热门股抱团），但消费和科技行业的利润结构则依旧扭曲（上市结构不均衡导致的）。随着注册制的逐步推进，将会有更多优秀的消费和科技类公司上市，进一步均衡A股的市值结构和利润结构。\n消费和科技行业市值占比较高但盈利仍有较大提升空间，寄望于注册制改革，提升股市结构和产业结构匹配性。类似的，从行业层面也能够得出相应的结论：A股的市值结构已经部分通过热门股“抱团”实现了一定程度的“均衡化”，但是A股的利润结构仍以地产、建筑等传统周期性行业为主。我们判断：随着注册制改革进一步推进，优秀的消费和科技类公司上市比例将会明显提高，从而带来A股市值结构/利润结构和产业结构的相对匹配。\n5.3投资者结构：A股机构化，被动投资将会强化热门股行情\nA股机构化快速发展，但仍有较大空间。我国A股市场的机构化加速发展，机构投资者占比近年来有所上升，但相比全球而言仍相对较低，不足40%。这意味着我国的机构化进程还有较大发展空间。\n公募基金、外资和保险资金构成A股机构投资者最重要的三股力量。陆港通的开通和MSCI的落地使外资在A股中的增量资金明显提速。2020年超过2万亿的偏股资金的发行使公募基金接力外资成为A股中的重要增量资金。\n\n我国养老金的崛起促进A股机构化进一步加速。我国养老保险的规模和参与人数自12年以来逐年持续、稳定地扩张，至19年城乡居民养老保险规模超8000亿元，人数达1.6亿人。借鉴美股，个人账户养老金发展有望带动我国资产结构向长期化转型，并提供长期稳定的资金来源，推动机构化发展。\n\nA股当前主动型基金为主，被动产品仍在发展中。随着国内市场的不断成熟，通过主动管理来战胜市场指数获取超额收益变得愈发困难。近10年来，指数基金产品市场加速发展，产品数量逐年增加，产品规模不断扩大，跟踪的指数类型也日益丰富。2009年发行的产品总数超过了以往所有年份的产品数量之和，并在2015年牛市顶点达到6700多亿元。随着A股市场被纳入MSCI指数体系，未来总体被动指数型基金的管理规模将再次大幅度增加，有助于提升A股的机构化水平，并进一步强化热门股的“抱团”行情。\n\n5.4龙头盈利：行业集中度提升，行业龙头强者越强\nA股龙头盈利能力持续改善，行业龙头强者恒强。随着供给侧改革的深入，成本的增加给行业内部带来结构性的转变，龙头企业受益于资金充裕、技术储备、规模优势，最终实现行业集中度的整体提升。随着竞争格局的改善，龙头话语权逐步明显。2017年以来，A股龙头优势凸显，相对A股整体盈利能力（ROE、利润增速）明显提升，龙头盈利跑赢整体，ROE领先近4pct。\n\n5.5流动性环境：“金融供给侧改革”降低实体融资成本，北向资金持续流入，也有助于阶段性支撑核心资产估值\n “金融供给侧改革”显著降低实体融资成本：近三年我国金融机构人民币贷款加权平均利率持续下行。金融供给侧改革以来，我国信贷增量明显扩面，直接融资增速长期显著高于间接融资，同时金融监管力度增强，非标融资压降明显，金融系统稳定性明显提升，融资结构持续向更均衡的方向发展。我们判断，“金融供给侧改革”降低实体融资成本，一定程度上也夯实了中国核心资产的估值基础（甚至出现了泡沫化的倾向）。\n\n全球利率中枢回落，“金融供给侧改革”中国利率中枢也将进入下行周期。全球长期经济增速中枢下移，利率中枢同步下行，自02年以来其他主要经济体利率中枢下行130BP-390BP不等。中国的地产景气大周期支撑中国的利率水平，随着“房住不炒”，贴现率下行驱动金融供给侧慢牛大致成立。\n\n16年以来北上资金持续流入，在一定程度上也能持续强化A股的热门股行情。16年以来的数据显示，北上资金净流入额的边际变化基本和人民币汇率相关，但从20年以来这种相关性相对弱化。我们认为，随着人民币汇率升值预期持续抬升，北向资金持续流入的预期将会得到增强。\n\n但北上资金的“口味”是在持续变化的，对核心资产的支撑或不一定有持续性。数据上来看，20年北上资金流入主要集中在核心资产（食品饮料/医药/电子等），但21年北上资金流入额边际抬升，不够流入的方向已经不是典型的核心资产了，而是银行/医药/化工等板块。所以我们认为：北上资金流入预期强化，可能阶段性支撑核心资产估值，不过，由于北上资金“口味”动态变化，对A股热门股估值的支撑可能会一定会持续。\n\n6\nA股热门股“抱团”不持续：驱动力不断切换，业绩高增长不持续6.1 FAANG经验借鉴：利润率驱动是热门股长期“抱团”的重要原因\n美股FAANG的ROE持续走高，热门股“抱团”根本上来源于利润率持续改善。FAANGT的ROE自2012年以来得到显著提高，基于杜邦三因素拆解，ROE的提高主要由销售净利率贡献，二者走势高度相关。而ROE的增幅则受资产周转率下降拖累。我们认为：相较杠杆率和周转率的窄幅波动，ROE的持续走高主要是由利润率驱动的。\n\n6.2 “高质量发展”政策驱动，企业将开启新一轮利润率回升周期\n高质量发展/混合型财政/供需缺口，A股将开启新一轮利润率回升周期。我们在2019.4.29发布的《“稳”民企，“兴”制造》中指出：高质量发展（高端制造转型升级）将中长期提升A股上市公司的利润率水平——中国经济增长的驱动力，以08年金融危机为界，可以分为周转率驱动和杠杆率驱动。在08年以前，凭借加入WTO的东风，中国经济出口导向为主，周转率大幅抬升持续改善ROE水平；而在08金融危机之后，中国经济更加依赖地产、基建加杠杆，通过提升杠杆率维持相对较高的ROE水平。当前，中国经济越来越接近长债务周期拐点，经济体量全球第二，很难再通过加杠杆或高周转维持较高的ROE水平。从ROE杜邦三因素出发，高端制造转型升级提升中国企业在全球“价值链”的位置，能够中长期改善企业利润率水平（科技含量）。我们在2020.4.21《混合型财政，A股能否刻舟求剑？》中指出：20年中国财政将兼顾“投资型/消费型”，也将改善企业（尤其是消费/科技制造业）的利润率水平——相较于08年“4万亿”投资者财政驱动地产/基建加杠杆（杠杆率），我们判断：20年混合型财政托底经济“稳增长”，面向企业救助和居民纾困，通过刺激消费需求（并托底部分制造企业的投资），拔高消费/制造行业的利润率（改善ROE）。我们在2021.1.18《产能视角看行业“供需缺口”》以及2021.3.19《产能视角看“碳中和”投资机会》中指数：21年“供需缺口”扩张顺周期涨价则短期支撑顺周期企业利润率持续高位——16-17年的“供给侧改革”以及18年以来的供给收缩常态化政策下，企业的产能（固定资产同比增速）持续低位，而产能利用率则高位回升。较高的产能利用率使得企业经营长期处于“供需紧平衡”的状态，因此，无论是“后疫情”需求修复还是“碳中和”供给收缩，都会导致企业的“供需缺口”扩张，进而带来顺周期涨价行情/预期（利润率抬升）。\n\n高端制造转型升级，将拉动科技制造和部分消费（升级）行业的利润率水平。受益于制造业持续内生性的转型升级，叠加“新冠”疫情后全球供应链重塑，也带来中国制造业市场份额&利润率水平（定价权）的同比改善。我们认为，随着政策开始强化高端制造升级，中游制造将迎来内生/外生性进一步转型升级，高端制造龙头（新能源汽车/半导体/装备制造）利润率水平进一步改善。\n\n6.3 中国高端制造转型升级，将持续改善消费/科技制造行业的利润率\n基于杜邦三因素拆解，提高中国制造业利润率是维持经济高增长的最优选项。当前，中国经济越来越接近长债务周期拐点，经济体量全球第二，很难再通过加杠杆或高周转维持较高的ROE水平。利润率方面，中国制造“大而不强”，在国际分工梯度格局中美德占据制造业高端链主要位置。中国制造业仍处于全球价值链中低端位置，高端行业存在有较大发展空间。\n\n对比中美两国ROE结构，美股盈利能力持续高于中国：主要因为美国企业占据全球价值链高位，而中国企业以“量”取胜，销售利润率远低于美国。通过杜邦拆解可以看到——A股剔除金融的资产周转率和资产负债率均显著高于标普500，这是由于我国企业高周转和高杠杆的经营模式决定的；而A股上市公司大多仍处于全球分工体系偏下的位置，毛利率相对较低，导致A股剔除金融的销售利润率远低于标普500。\n\n中国利润率显著低于美国的细分行业的毛利率有望提升，其中高端制造是中国重塑全球价值链的主要落脚点。我们对比了中美两国各行业的利润率情况，将中国的行业分成3类——（1）中国仍处国际“价值链”落后的行业（高端制造业），多数为《中国制造2025》战略重点扶持的领域；（2）中国在国际“价值链”上基本与美国接轨的行业（一般消费品+低端制造业），其中大多属于全球价值链中较为低端的品种，中美两国很难拉开差距；（3）由于市场结构和行业垄断等原因，中国在部分行业的利润率高于美国（耐用品消费业+生物医疗业+金融行业），主要受益于中国消费升级、或者受益于垄断的产业环境，其利润率明显高于美国相应的行业。因此，未来中国经济主要的增长空间在利润率显著低于美国的高端制造业。\n\n与日韩对比，中国中端制造行业的利润率仍然偏低，也存在赶超市场。根据GICS行业组，我们对比了中国和以日韩为代表的中端制造国家利润率情况，同样可以将中国的行业分为3类——（1）中国仍处国际“价值链”落后的行业（中端制造业）。（2）中国在国际“价值链”上基本与日韩接轨的行业（一般消费品+低端制造业），其中部分行业属于全球价值链中较为低端的品种，基本和日韩拉不开差距；（3）由于市场结构和行业垄断等原因，中国在部分行业的利润率高于日韩（耐用品消费业+生物医疗业+金融行业）。据此，我们认为，中国在中端制造行业具有一定的发展空间。消费和科技产业利润率的提高将为中国经济的增长提供新动能。\n\n7、风险提示\n全球疫情仍存在反复的风险，尤其是新冠疫情变异会带来更大的不确定性；疫情变异/反复可能导致全球经济修复可能不及预期并影响中国出口韧性；全球/中国通胀高位流动性可能边际收紧（如美国taper预期）；中美贸易关系仍有较强的不确定性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185218549,"gmtCreate":1623652428081,"gmtModify":1704207871478,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185218549","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186589753,"gmtCreate":1623510481672,"gmtModify":1704205325664,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good lo","listText":"Good lo","text":"Good lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186589753","repostId":"1102453565","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}