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2021-09-23

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Why exactly does Amazon block Chinese sellers?

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Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!

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Wall Street Optimists: The Peak of the Pandemic in the United States is Approaching, and it is Bargain-hunting to Restart Trading Opportunities

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The inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks That Markets Still Are Unpriced

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How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!

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Stock God Buffett turned in his homework! This investment is the highlight

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10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why exactly does Amazon block Chinese sellers?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169565516","media":"36氪","summary":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息","content":"<p>Because of the account ban and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that leads to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale is laid off. Especially when some We Media traffic is swallowed up, it seems that there are no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon sealed? At first, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. As Amazon officials kept silent, this number gradually defaulted to fact.</p><p>Even at Amazon's event of settling the world's first comprehensive seller training center in Hangzhou held last Friday, it was still tight-lipped about the number of closed stores, and didn't plan to disclose it to the outside world. It was hoped that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will certainly not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a Q&A session of settlement activity into a press conference of store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, vice president of Amazon Global and CEO of Amazon Global Shop Asia Pacific, all admitted frankly, \"Today's release was originally for the training center to settle in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the account being blocked, so I made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the sales rights of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused reviews, as well as many other violations. In the past period, Amazon has warned these sellers many times, and they have had many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate regulations, so this time it is decided to terminate the cooperation with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller violated the rules seriously, and Amazon was forced to take the last step after giving many opportunities.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final number must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four young people, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of the employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closing 54 stores, and frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect?</p><p>Advances in algorithms</p><p>In fact, there is an unspoken rule known in the industry. That is, Amazon has two fixed account sweeps every year, one on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts two months in advance for its large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; The other is in the first 2 months of Christmas, i.e. mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, if a brand authorizes 50 stores, it will have no impact at all if a few are sealed. \"In fact, as long as the number of shops closed does not exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about this.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's industry explosion, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether product reviews are true or false. Once, many self-operated listings (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, because the error was too serious, Amazon stopped closing on a large scale.</p><p>But technology kept improving until it began to mature a lot this year. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, and it is no longer judged according to the store logic, but according to the brand dimension logic. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand, and it exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of store groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Andy Jassy, the new CEO of Amazon, was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site reviews, and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, the invitation will definitely be bad reviews. Therefore, this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money drives out good money all the time, good money will not be possible.\" The above-mentioned seller said.</p><p>Supplier logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and it is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>That is, all of the seller's digital assets on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping center, and Amazon is a department store. So this has laid the foreshadowing of some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the regulations, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, while Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent prosecution will bear joint and several liability.</p><p>This was also confirmed by Cindy Tai. The Amazon funds freeze period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the seller's refund return compensation costs of past customers, as well as other unpaid expenses. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, when you open a shop in Amazon, you are actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform then helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative and judicial body, and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the directory.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon doesn't do well is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-discrimination link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests that should be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes in silence, the future will probably be a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In the complaint process, Cindy Tai, vice president of Amazon Global and CEO of Amazon Global Store Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated because of violations, Amazon will provide sellers with an opportunity to appeal; As long as the seller proves that Amazon is wrong in judgment, or that the violation is only temporary or unintentional, and provides a solution to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36Kr from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost 0. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the variety of changes in Amazon's rules. The main problem lies in the inefficiency of email communication.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the whole cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What has been looking for is which enterprises can cross the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to come out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the comprehensive ability of enterprises to meet user needs, marketing methods, supply chain impact, etc. However, it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even more scarce. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>And the success of Shein, which makes all investors very excited, look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>In the future, the first thing the industry has to reconstruct is consciousness. The past distribution path is already a dead end, and the earlier it is, the more opportunities for transformation. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because he transformed his brand two years late. When he turned back and chased after him, he realized that the probability of success was extremely small. This is also the dividend path dependence left by the early stage of the industry. Because it was easier to make fast money in the past, they were reluctant to take a difficult and correct road with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category to cultivate deeply. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why won't the previous simple rough mode work? Because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and service, third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brand determination to be stronger. In such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce out of the circle, and the title is accelerated. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across the border. Industries that seem to have no threshold are actually not low, especially in the practical stage. Perhaps some pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but creating competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as the current industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using the power of capital. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively general, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, it will be obvious that the reason why these two companies have such a high valuation in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing capital is only the underlying role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, some talents such as big factories, high education and rich industry experience are invested. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business pattern. In other words, you don't accept investment and capital invests in your competitors.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why exactly does Amazon block Chinese sellers?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy exactly does Amazon block Chinese sellers?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Because of the account ban and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that leads to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale is laid off. Especially when some We Media traffic is swallowed up, it seems that there are no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon sealed? At first, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. As Amazon officials kept silent, this number gradually defaulted to fact.</p><p>Even at Amazon's event of settling the world's first comprehensive seller training center in Hangzhou held last Friday, it was still tight-lipped about the number of closed stores, and didn't plan to disclose it to the outside world. It was hoped that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will certainly not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a Q&A session of settlement activity into a press conference of store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, vice president of Amazon Global and CEO of Amazon Global Shop Asia Pacific, all admitted frankly, \"Today's release was originally for the training center to settle in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the account being blocked, so I made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the sales rights of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused reviews, as well as many other violations. In the past period, Amazon has warned these sellers many times, and they have had many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate regulations, so this time it is decided to terminate the cooperation with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller violated the rules seriously, and Amazon was forced to take the last step after giving many opportunities.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final number must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four young people, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of the employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closing 54 stores, and frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect?</p><p>Advances in algorithms</p><p>In fact, there is an unspoken rule known in the industry. That is, Amazon has two fixed account sweeps every year, one on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts two months in advance for its large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; The other is in the first 2 months of Christmas, i.e. mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, if a brand authorizes 50 stores, it will have no impact at all if a few are sealed. \"In fact, as long as the number of shops closed does not exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about this.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's industry explosion, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether product reviews are true or false. Once, many self-operated listings (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, because the error was too serious, Amazon stopped closing on a large scale.</p><p>But technology kept improving until it began to mature a lot this year. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, and it is no longer judged according to the store logic, but according to the brand dimension logic. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand, and it exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of store groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Andy Jassy, the new CEO of Amazon, was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site reviews, and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, the invitation will definitely be bad reviews. Therefore, this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money drives out good money all the time, good money will not be possible.\" The above-mentioned seller said.</p><p>Supplier logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and it is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>That is, all of the seller's digital assets on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping center, and Amazon is a department store. So this has laid the foreshadowing of some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the regulations, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, while Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent prosecution will bear joint and several liability.</p><p>This was also confirmed by Cindy Tai. The Amazon funds freeze period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the seller's refund return compensation costs of past customers, as well as other unpaid expenses. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, when you open a shop in Amazon, you are actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform then helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative and judicial body, and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the directory.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon doesn't do well is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-discrimination link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests that should be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes in silence, the future will probably be a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In the complaint process, Cindy Tai, vice president of Amazon Global and CEO of Amazon Global Store Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated because of violations, Amazon will provide sellers with an opportunity to appeal; As long as the seller proves that Amazon is wrong in judgment, or that the violation is only temporary or unintentional, and provides a solution to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36Kr from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost 0. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the variety of changes in Amazon's rules. The main problem lies in the inefficiency of email communication.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the whole cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What has been looking for is which enterprises can cross the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to come out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the comprehensive ability of enterprises to meet user needs, marketing methods, supply chain impact, etc. However, it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even more scarce. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>And the success of Shein, which makes all investors very excited, look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>In the future, the first thing the industry has to reconstruct is consciousness. The past distribution path is already a dead end, and the earlier it is, the more opportunities for transformation. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because he transformed his brand two years late. When he turned back and chased after him, he realized that the probability of success was extremely small. This is also the dividend path dependence left by the early stage of the industry. Because it was easier to make fast money in the past, they were reluctant to take a difficult and correct road with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category to cultivate deeply. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why won't the previous simple rough mode work? Because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and service, third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brand determination to be stronger. In such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce out of the circle, and the title is accelerated. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across the border. Industries that seem to have no threshold are actually not low, especially in the practical stage. Perhaps some pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but creating competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as the current industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using the power of capital. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively general, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, it will be obvious that the reason why these two companies have such a high valuation in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing capital is only the underlying role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, some talents such as big factories, high education and rich industry experience are invested. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business pattern. In other words, you don't accept investment and capital invests in your competitors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dffe01d72356572c6df4fa7726ddb0c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2169565516","content_text":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息不对称是亚马逊到底封了多少个中国店铺？开始最主流传言是有5万家，由于亚马逊官方一直保持不对外发声，这个数字就逐渐默认成事实。\n即使在亚马逊上周五召开的全球首个综合性卖家培训中心落户杭州活动上，对于封店数量还是三缄其口，不计划对外披露，希望冷处理就过去。\n被邀请的媒体们肯定不会放过这个难得机会，所以活生生把一场落户活动问答环节变成了封店潮发布会。以至于亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai都坦言，“今天这个发布本来是针对培训中心落户杭州的，只是没想到这么多媒体关注账号被封之事，所以就一起进行了首次回应。”\n据她透露，过去5个月，亚马逊关闭了约600个中国卖家品牌销售权限，涉及品牌数约3000个，包括一些大卖家。“这些卖家都有多次、反复、严重滥用评论行为，以及有许多其他违规行为。在过去一段时间，亚马逊对这些卖家进行过多次警告，他们也有多次申诉机会，甚至恢复了一些停用过的账号。但是这些卖家持续违规，所以这次决定终止和这些卖家的合作关系。”\n翻译过来就是，被封掉的卖家违规行为严重，亚马逊给了很多次机会仍屡教不改，所以被迫走了最后一步。\n“亚马逊只是公布了前五个月的数据，6、7、8月数据没有披露，这三个月也有很多店铺受影响。所以最终的数字一定比这个大很多。”一位资深从业者告诉36氪。\n对于严重依赖亚马逊的卖家来说，损失确实不小。比如曾经的华南城四少之有棵树，被封掉店铺340个，冻结资金1.3亿元。直接导致员工离职一半，收入下滑一半，净亏损超7亿元；另一大卖通拓科技被禁售关闭店铺数 54 个， 冻结资金 4143 万元。\n那么，亚马逊这次封店力度和强度为什么这么大？背后让我们真正反思的又有哪些？\n算法的进步\n事实上，行业内都知道一个潜规则。就是亚马逊每年固定有两次账号扫荡，一次是在7月左右的会员日（Prime Day），亚马逊为了自己这个大型促销活动通常会提前2个月关掉一些账号，也就是在4月底到5月初；另一次是在圣诞节的前2个月，即10月中旬或者11月初。\n因为看到了这个巨大的漏洞，所以很多卖家都有自己的应对之策。比如一个品牌授权50个店铺，封掉几个完全没有影响。“其实只要关掉的店铺没有超过一定比例，连老板都不需要知道这事。”某卖家告诉36氪。\n经过去年行业大爆炸后，今年所有卖家也都更乐观，完全没看到这件事背后真正的风险。其实早在3年前，亚马逊就在利用算法机器人在检测商品评论是真实还是虚假。曾经也封掉了很多自营Listing（产品页面），比如深圳某卖家的Listing就从1.7万缩减至1000，朋友圈也是一篇哀嚎。好在后来因为有误差太严重，亚马逊就没再大规模继续封停。\n但技术一直在进步，直到今年开始成熟许多。加上亚马逊改变了规则，不再是按照店铺逻辑评判，而是按照品牌维度逻辑。只要算法识别出有问题的品牌，也超过了一定比例，旗下店铺一律关停。所以才有了大量店铺群被封。\n36氪也注意到，亚马逊新任CEO安迪·杰西(Andy Jassy)，此前是亚马逊云计算CEO，不是电商负责人。这也证明亚马逊作为一家数据驱动公司，对于平台数据真实度的保护更加重视。\n“相信这次事件以后，很多卖家会开始采用白帽玩法。以及亚马逊也鼓励站内邀评，通过站内信邀请用户评价。如果产品和体验不好，邀回来的肯定是差评。所以这件事对整个生态是很有好处的。如果一直劣币驱逐良币，良币就不可能做起来。”上述卖家说道。\n供应商逻辑\n除了算法的持续迭代外，亚马逊对卖家定义也和国内天猫淘宝不一样。不一样地方在于，亚马逊是把平台上所有卖家视为供应商，自己相当于一个零售商。\n也就是说，卖家在亚马逊上的所有数字资产都归属亚马逊。即使你是苹果，是耐克，都是亚马逊的供应商。\n“可以这么理解，天猫类似于一个购物中心，亚马逊是一个百货公司。所以这就埋下了亚马逊的一些处罚机制伏笔。如果是天猫卖家违规，平台会动你的货和资金吗？亚马逊谈的更多是销售规模，天猫谈才GMV。”智云天工销售副总周骏告诉36氪。\n对于亚马逊就不同，一旦收了顾客的货款，就要为用户负责。只要发现卖家可能对顾客造成伤害，就会先把资金冻结，以应付后续会不会因为起诉承担连带责任。\n这也得到了Cindy Tai的证实，亚马逊资金冻结周期为90天，主要用来承担卖家过去客户的退款退货赔偿费用，以及其他未支付费用。90天后，如果没有违规会可申请取回。\n所以，在亚马逊开店，其实不是自己在卖货，而是卖家给平台供货，平台再帮忙卖货。亚马逊不是行政和司法机构，没权力冻结资金和货。但就因为亚马逊的供应商逻辑，因此只要违反了供应商规则，就得从名录里踢掉。\n“从价值观来讲，刷单是严重的撒谎、造假行为，我们都是深恶痛绝的。但也不能一味污名化中国卖家，行业里大家都在没日没夜干活。亚马逊做的不好的地方是，起码有个听证会，给卖家一个自辨环节。对于卖家来说，该争取的合法权益必须争取。如果这次默默过去，未来估计是噩梦。”周骏说。\n在申诉流程上，亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai表示，如果一个卖家账号因为违规行为被停用，亚马逊会为卖家提供申诉机会；只要这个卖家证明亚马逊判断有误，或者证明违规行为只是暂时或无意失误，并提供如何避免再次违规方案，这些账号会恢复正常运营。\n但据36氪从多位卖家处了解到，从亚马逊申诉成功的概率几乎为0。同时，对于亚马逊的规则变化多样把握也不是很准，其中主要问题在于邮件沟通这种方式效率很低。\n出路在哪儿？\n对于整个跨境电商行业来说，目前还处于很早期阶段，甚至都还谈不上一个行业。36氪从走访的多家投资机构中发现，投资人对行业的乐观判断未受到任何影响。一直在寻找的是，哪些企业能穿越周期，有意识有能力走出一个新品牌。\n塑造一个品牌很难，需要的是企业对用户需求、营销玩法、供应链影响等综合能力，但正因为门槛高，所以才更加稀缺。特别是安克创新和Shein的成功，让所有投资人都很兴奋，期待找到下一个这样的投资标的。\n在未来出路上，行业首先要重构的是意识。过往的铺货路径已经是死胡同，越早转型机会越多。行业某大卖家就是因为晚了2年转型品牌，才丧失了很多先发红利。等回头猛追才发现，成功概率微乎其微。这个也是行业早期阶段留下的红利路径依赖，因为过去方式赚快钱更容易，所以都不太愿意走一条有积累、难而正确的路。\n然后，找到一个细分的垂直品类深耕。如果说之前是粗旷式的经营，现在肯定要进行精细化运营。而且对品类要求门槛变得更高。为什么之前那种简单粗暴模式行不通？就是因为消费者在觉醒，对产品质量、服务要求变得更高，亚马逊这样的第三方也在逐渐改变策略，鼓励品牌决心更强。如此环境之下，没有精细化的能力，或许未来压根没有利润可言。\n其次，引入一些高素质的技术人才。疫情是跨境电商出圈的开始，封号是加速，带来的直接影响就是更多创业者跨界进入。看似没有门槛的行业，实则门槛不低，特别到了实操阶段。也许直到现在还能走通一部分纯生意逻辑，但是打造竞争壁垒这件事优势就需要更多高素质人才加入。特别是偏技术端，就目前行业从业者来看，能提升的空间还是很大。\n最后，善于借助资本力量。一直以来，因为跨境电商赚钱容易，甚至不缺现金流。所以对资本的欲望也相对一般，但如果梳理安克创新和Shein就会明显发现，这两家公司之所以在资本市场有这么高的估值，特别是后者的高增长。离不开资本的助力，资本无好坏，核心在于如何去利用。资本提供资金只是底层作用，更大的赋能对做强做大帮助大。\n从任何一个行业发展周期来看，资本大规模进入是在渗透率有一定提高之后。这时候投资的是一些大厂、高学历、丰富行业经验等人才，这些创新力量在技术推动下开始走出新的路子，以及重构商业格局。换句话说，你不接受投资，资本就会投资你的竞争对手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860401476,"gmtCreate":1632193536795,"gmtModify":1676530722519,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860401476","repostId":"2169684551","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881911500,"gmtCreate":1631284760100,"gmtModify":1676530520376,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881911500","repostId":"1144889232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883091778,"gmtCreate":1631186053494,"gmtModify":1676530490511,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883091778","repostId":"2166195813","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166195813","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"新型财经科技信息服务提供商，专注TMT。技术改变商业，商业改变世界，我们纪录这个过程，并聚集这些改变世界的人。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"TMTPost","id":"1065587721","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c"},"pubTimestamp":1631170956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166195813?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 15:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"When was \"Nvidia\" born in China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166195813","media":"TMTPost","summary":"这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>CEO Huang Renxun (Image source: Nvidia official website)</p><p>\"The product I am about to show, which integrates new GPU accelerated computing capabilities and has Mellanox high-performance network, is the world's first CPU processor designed for TB-level data center accelerated computing. Its secret code name is Grace.\"</p><p>This is a quote from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang during his speech at the GTC Summit in April 2021. However, unexpectedly, it was not until August 12th that NVIDIA exposed itself that people knew that the content of this speech of less than 100 words and 14 seconds was not Huang Renxun himself, but a synthetic \"digital stand-in\", that is, the \"virtual Huang Renxun\" image formed by NVIDIA GPU processor and Omniverse software platform.</p><p>This incident triggered heated discussions on technologies and concepts such as virtual reality, metaverse and AI face change. At the same time, it also made \"Nvidia\", the American chip overlord, \"out of the circle\" from the semiconductor industry and into the public eye.</p><p>Since its establishment in 1993, under the leadership of Huang Renxun, Nvidia has successfully created and led the category of GPU (graphics processor) chips, covering the whole PC device GPU to server GPU market. Over the past five years,<b>Nvidia grows from $31 billion to $505 billion in market capitalization, ranking as the world's seventh-largest semiconductor supplier, is an artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>A hot star enterprise in the field of (AI) chips.</b></p><p>Meanwhile, after Nvidia's market cap exceeds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After that, the domestic semiconductor market saw greater market opportunities in GPU and AI chip tracks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300474\">Jing Jiawei</a>, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>Enterprises such as Muxi Integrated Circuit and Muxi Integrated Circuit gather in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In the past two years, the domestic semiconductor industry has undergone transformation. Thanks to Huawei HiSilicon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">SMIC</a>Affected by the US \"entity list\" and the chain reaction caused by the global chip shortage, it is more and more difficult for Chinese enterprises to purchase American semiconductor products, and the demand for \"domestic substitution\" is stronger and stronger.</p><p>On June 29, 2020, due to the upgrade of the U.S. Export Administration Regulations and the constant adjustment of enterprise members in the entity list, Intel \"temporarily suspended\" the supply of chips to Inspur Group.</p><p>Although on July 3rd, Inspur announced that Intel had resumed its supply, one was the world's largest PC and cloud service x86 architecture chip supplier, and the other was China's largest server manufacturer. The temporary supply cutoff crisis between the two companies raised a wake-up for the whole Chinese cloud computing and semiconductor industry:<b>With the increasingly strong demand for computing power, China needs to mass-produce fully independent and controllable domestic GPU and server chip products.</b>This highlights that \"domestic substitution\" is becoming the biggest driving force for the development of China's semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition, as a big chip selling country in the world, there is no chip giant like \"Nvidia\" in China, and the big market has not produced a matching big company.</b>According to the statistics of IC Insight, the global semiconductor market size in 2020 was US$395.7 billion, of which the market size in mainland China was US$43.4 billion, making it the largest market in the world, accounting for 36.24% of the global proportion. However, semiconductor companies headquartered in mainland China had a total output value of just $8.3 billion in 2020, representing only 5.9% of the market size.</p><p><b>Who could cut off a corner of a huge cake? When will the semiconductor industry create \"China's Nvidia\"?</b></p><p><h2>Missing out on the Golden Age</h2>GPU graphics processor, also known as display chip and vision processor, was first proposed by Nvidia in 1999. It is a microprocessor specialized in running drawing operations on personal computers, workstations, game consoles and mobile devices (smart phones, tablets, VR devices).</p><p>As the parallel computing advantages of GPU are gradually tapped, the application field of GPU expands from graphics processing to high-performance computing, and gradually becomes the most mature and widely used general-purpose chip in Al computing. In June 2020, Nvidia launched the A100 Tensor Core GPU based on Ampere architecture, becoming the world's most powerful AI chip.</p><p>From the perspective of application terminals, GPUs can be divided into PC GPUs, server GPUs and mobile GPUs, corresponding to three architectures, namely, independent graphics cards composed of special circuit boards and components, shared integrated graphics cards, and mobile GPUs packaged together with other chips or modules into highly integrated SoCs-which are applied to multiple application scenarios including mobile phones, automotive electronics and AI.</p><p><b>since<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>After the acquisition of ATI, a Canadian GPU manufacturer, in 2006, at present, in the field of PC and server GPUs, the global GPU market is monopolized by Intel, AMD and Nvidia, the \"Big Three American Chips\". Intel has obvious advantages in the integrated GPU market, while Nvidia and AMD are separated in the independent GPU market.</b></p><p>According to the data of Jon Peddie Research, a Research organization, in the first quarter of 2021, in the global PC-side GPU market, Intel (Intel) topped the list with a market share of 68%, followed by AMD and Nvidia with 17% and 14% respectively, and the total share of the three companies was close to 100%; In the global field of independent GPUs, Nvidia is the market leader of data center GPUs, accounting for 81% of the market share, and has a leading advantage, while AMD ranks second with 19%.</p><p>In 2019 alone, with products such as the V100 series, Nvidia occupied 90% of China's AI training chip market, firmly grasping China's huge AI chip sales market.</p><p>One of the core reasons why Nvidia can continue to be a \"chip overlord\" lies in its \"light design mode\". Nvidia does not do chip manufacturing and packaging, leaving it to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>OEM is completed, and it enjoys the dividend of advanced process technology such as 7nm. Between 2016 and 2021, Nvidia's revenue grew 233% and operating profit doubled to $4.5 billion, according to the earnings report. In the three months to May, sales jumped 84% year-on-year, while gross profit margin reached 64%.</p><p><b>In fact, China entered the field of GPU chip design very early, but the results were not satisfactory.</b></p><p><b>Since the 1970s, China began to introduce semiconductor and integrated circuit technologies and production lines. However, as a result, we have fallen into an a vicious circle of \"generation-to-generation introduction and generation-to-generation backwardness\". Coupled with the adverse impact of the \"Hanxin No.1\" fake chip incident on the society, China's \"autonomous processors\" have suffered serious setbacks, and China's active promotion of WTO globalization and other factors, thus missing the golden period of global semiconductor industry development, and downstream enterprises can only \"buy rather than make\".</b></p><p>By 2000, marked by the promulgation of the national \"Document No. 18\", China Semiconductor gradually formed an industrial organization form of \"separation of three industries\" in design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, and introduced \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>\"A group of chip manufacturing (Foundry) enterprises represented by China have been built and put into production, and their technical level has been rapidly improved.</p><p>At present, Jingjiawei, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology, Cambrian, Muxi IC and other enterprises are all gathered in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In 2014, Jingjiawei (300474.SH), which started as a military aircraft graphical display control module, successfully developed the military GPU chip JM5400, and then successfully developed the second generation GPU chip JM7200 with 28nm process technology in 2018. Jingjiawei has moved from military customization to general-purpose GPU, becoming one of the few companies in the world and the only company in China to realize commercial mass production of independent GPU.</p><p>In addition to Jingjiawei, in March 2021, Tianshu Zhixin released the first GPGPU (general-purpose graphics processor) manufactured by 7nm process in China, that is, 30% of the graphics rendering part of the traditional GPU was removed, and it was only born for handling artificial intelligence (AI) applications; In June this year, Suiyuan Technology released China's largest AI computing chip \"Sisi 2.0\" AI chip, \"Yunsui T20\" training accelerator card based on Sisi 2.0 and \"Yunsui T21\" training OAM module.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the performance of JM7200 chip developed by Jingjiawei is only equivalent to that of Nvidia GTX 640 in 2012, which is difficult to meet the application needs of enterprise customers. Even Suiyuan Technology's \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip only tied with Nvidia's A100, and two of the six projects tested by Benchmark greatly surpassed the performance of Nvidia A100. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"Suiyuan Technology releases China's largest AI computing chip to accelerate the implementation of three major business directions\")</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cb73d2787595547a9ed01926f4dfbe\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"1926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The reason behind this is mainly that China's semiconductor industry started late, the technical threshold of chips is high, the cost elasticity is high, and the industry is highly concentrated, which makes the overall R&D investment, technology and talents of Chinese GPU chip enterprises lag behind those of foreign countries. Therefore, there is still a gap with chip giants in product performance and technology, and it is still difficult for downstream enterprises to break away from the position of \"American Chip Big Three\".</b></p><p>Take R&D investment as an example. In the ten years from 2011 to 2020, Jingjiawei's R&D investment totaled RMB 627 million, while Nvidia's R&D investment in 2020 reached USD 3.924 billion, or about RMB 25.323 billion. In the ten years, Nvidia's total investment exceeded RMB 120 billion, with a difference of more than 190 times.</p><p>In terms of talent, as of the first half of 2021, Nvidia had a whopping 18,975 employees and Jingjiawei had a total of 1,174 employees, far lower than AMD's 2,000 employees in the Shanghai R&D center.</p><p>\"AI chip and GPU chip markets are quite special. Unlike traditional special-purpose processors, the technology is very complicated. It requires a lot of data and needs to be combined with specific algorithms before it can be put into the market.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>Xie Zhonghui, deputy general manager of China, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App in April this year that if an enterprise wants to make the first AI chip solid, it usually takes more than two or three years.</p><p>In his view, chip semiconductor itself is an industry with large investment, long cycle and slow results. Complete localization of technology requires long-term and sustained accumulation of capital, talents and technology, and it is difficult to deal with it with the Internet thinking of \"spending money to see returns\".</p><p><b>In addition, the software and hardware ecology combined with CUDA technology is another important reason for the big gap between domestic chip companies and Nvidia.</b></p><p>In 2006, Nvidia released the parallel computing platform CUDA, which contains a series of development tools. Only by installing and using this platform can complex parallel computing be performed. Anyone who owns a laptop equipped with Nvidia GPU can use CUDA to perform scientific and convenient programming calculations, such as deep learning, AI algorithms, etc., and develop related software. Over the past decade or so, NVIDIA has persistently promoted CUDA, so that more government and enterprise-level software has been developed based on this platform, and NVIDIA's self-developed GPU hardware has been combined with CUDA software to efficiently realize the application landing.</p><p>In contrast, at present, there is no series of platforms similar to CUDA and NVIDIA hardware deep binding in China, and the gap in technical barriers is very obvious. Most domestic GPU manufacturers have adopted the strategy of compatibility with CUDA open source framework, such as Tianshu Zhixin and Denglin, and are ready to cultivate their own software ecosystem on this basis.</p><p>\"In the short term, it is easier to develop domestic GPU compatible with CUDA. After all, writing operators is a manpower-intensive industry. If users migrate, they need to migrate 100%, and the whole set of codes have to run on your chip. If the amount of code is small, there are not so many operators needed, and the difficulty will be relatively low. But in the long run, it is still necessary to get rid of compatibility ideas and develop its own core technologies.\" According to chip industry insiders, choosing compatibility is mainly to ensure that the existing software is still available. In the future, it will continue to improve its own platform to make it more matched with its own chips, thus attracting developers to migrate.</p><p>However, some enterprises choose to be incompatible with CUDA ecology. For example, Suiyuan Technology, which does AI training and inference chips at the same time, has comprehensively upgraded its \"TopsRider\" software platform and a brand-new \"Yunsui Cluster\" this year, hoping to have ecological dominance.</p><p><b>To sum up, these domestic chip companies that benchmark Nvidia are still in the initial stage of development. The industrialization and marketization ability of AI chip technology is weak, and it has not actually been used on a large scale. There is still a long way to go before surpassing or replacing \"China Nvidia\".</b></p><p>Yan Guihai, CEO of Zhongke Yushu, said in an interview with Titanium Media App that although China's demand side is still the largest single market in the world, and its growth rate is among the best, the \"demand side\" is still very strong, but there is still a big gap in design and manufacturing of high-end chips, and the \"supply side\" is not strong enough. He pointed out that the advantages and disadvantages of the supply side depend not only on one enterprise, but on the capacity of the whole industrial chain. In the short term, it is still unrealistic to build such a large-scale and comprehensive leading enterprise.</p><p>Founded in 2018, Zhongke Yushu is a developer of dedicated computing architecture. It was incubated from the State Key Laboratory of Computer Architecture of Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Now the company's valuation has exceeded 1 billion yuan. On July 27th this year, Zhongke Yushu completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing, led by Huatai Innovation, followed by Lingjun Investment and the old shareholder Guoxin Sichuang.</p><p>Huang Liming, a partner at Hillhouse and head of software and hard technology at Hillhouse Ventures, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App that although the GPU market is promising, China's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It is difficult to make \"Nvidia\" directly. In addition to technical difficulty, it has to be done in combination with strong applications-involving software system software ecology, which is extremely demanding for startups.</p><p>Hillhouse launched Hillhouse Venture Capital, an independent VC brand, in February 2020. Since then, it has invested in the field of chip semiconductors, including semiconductor IP company Xinyaohui, EDA manufacturer Xinhuazhang, GPU platform Biren Technology, DPU company Nebula Zhilian, plus Tianke Heda in silicon carbide, Minxin Semiconductor in optical chip field, and Xingsi Semiconductor in mobile phone baseband.</p><p>Huang Liming emphasized that there will not be many companies that can run out in this direction, whether overseas or domestic, in the end.</p><p><h2>The wind has arrived</h2>\"Let's not struggle with how to replace Nvidia now. The road is step by step. I think first of all, China has to have domestic AI chips, general-purpose GPUs, FPGAs and other underlying computing power. As long as there is domestic market demand, we must have many opportunities.\" Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of Huaying Capital, told Titanium Media App that the domestic semiconductor industry has arrived, and China's entry into the GPU market is \"the right time, the right place and the right people\". In particular, semiconductors and the next generation AI technology are areas that China must break through.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan gave an example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">Kingsoft Office</a>The product is inferior to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Office suite, but the market gives a market value of more than 110 billion yuan. One of the important reasons behind it is that China must have domestic Office, and the same reason applies to the domestic GPU market.</p><p>Huaying Capital is one of the earliest private equity funds in China To deploy mobile Internet and cultural industry. In recent years, To B field has also become the key investment area of Huaying Capital. At present, Huaying Capital has invested more than 30 projects in the To B field, with a total investment of over 700 million yuan, which are built by Zhang Gaonan, a technology investor. In the fields of data center and underlying computing power, Huaying Capital has invested in projects such as Biren Technology, Tianyun Big Data and Zhongke Haiwei.</p><p>In fact, as a general platform spanning visual computing and AI computing, GPU has a huge market space.<b>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>It is estimated that by 2027, the market space of domestic substitution in GPU field will exceed 34.1 billion USD. In addition to the existing game market, there is room for further development in industrial, medical, military aerospace and other directions.</b></p><p>In March this year, \"Biren Technology\", a general intelligent chip designer co-founded by Zhang Wen, the former president of Shangtang Technology, completed the B round of financing. Since its establishment in September 2019, the company's total financing amount has exceeded RMB 4.7 billion, and its investors include Hillhouse Venture Capital, Huaying Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">Ping An of China</a>China Merchants Capital, BAI Capital, Guosheng Group National Reform Fund, etc., with a valuation of over 10 billion yuan, making it one of the \"unicorn\" enterprises with the fastest momentum in the growing semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition to Wall Ren, Mu Xi IC, Moore Thread and other enterprises in the GPU field have also completed financing.</b></p><p>On August 25th, Muxi Integrated Circuit, a GPU manufacturer, announced the completion of RMB 1 billion Series A financing. The founders Chen Weiliang and Yang Jian are all from American chip giant AMD, and the investors include China State-owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund Co., Ltd.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00810\">China Internet Investment</a>Fund, Matrix Partners China, Holy Capital, Sequoia China, Lightspeed China, Guochuang Zhongding, Smart Internet Industry Fund, Shanghai Science and Technology Fund, Lenovo Venture Capital, etc.; Moore Thread, established in 2020, claimed to have completed two rounds of multi-billion yuan financing within 100 days. The team members are mainly from Nvidia, and the investors include Shenzhen Venture Capital and Sequoia Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">China Fund</a>China Merchants Venture Capital, ByteDance, Pony Zhixing, Wuyuan Capital, etc.</p><p><b>However, an interesting phenomenon is that the above three start-ups, namely Bi Ren, Mu Xi and Moore Thread, are veritable \"PPT financing core-making\", and none of them completed the taping of the first chip (trial production of assembly line) during financing.</b></p><p>Why are market investors willing to open their wallets to this? In an interview with Titanium Media App, several investors said that these projects can get a lot of capital support, all because of the early investment, mainly depending on the team and the track: the AI chip track has arrived, and the senior executive team is also from the \"American Chip Big Three\".</p><p>\"I think we need to give these enterprises opportunities and patience. It is impossible for 500 people to write PPT. Manufacturing chips is a matter of 5 to 10 years. The reason why we are willing to invest is not speculation or fooling. I think the risk of investing in the semiconductor track itself is high, and it is necessary to make long-term plans and have strong enough risk-taking capacity, which is completely different from the model innovation of investing in the Internet.\" The above-mentioned investors told Titanium Media App.</p><p>However, some investors in the semiconductor industry pointed out that the above-mentioned investment projects essentially hope to raise the market value and have a higher rate of return. Especially in the \"chip fever\" environment, venture capital institutions need to constantly look for these GPU and AI chip enterprise targets in the middle and early stages, hoping to gamble on a higher return.</p><p>In addition, in this wave of GPU entrepreneurship, the founding team teached the \"American Chip Big Three\". For example, Zheng Jinshan, chief scientist of Tianshu Zhixin, was the chief technical expert of AMD; Muxi's founding team is mainly from AMD. CEO Chen Weiliang once served as senior director of graphics research and development in AMD, and CTO Yang Jian once served as AMD Fellow (academician); Li Xinrong, the newly appointed co-CEO of Biren Technology, was once the global vice president of AMD, and Chen Wenzhong, senior vice president of Biren Technology, also served in AMD.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Gaonan said that AMD is the top two chip giants in the field of GPU. The core research and development of GPU is all in Shanghai, while the research and development of graphics rendering is in the United States. Enterprises can go to the executives of AMD and Nvidia to communicate, and the final choice is definitely the leader in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>Yan Guihai believes that in segmenting emerging tracks, with the application \"potential energy\" on the demand side, Chinese chip enterprises have concentrated their superior forces, based on serving local enterprises, and highlighted the agility of development, which is an opportunity to surpass chip giants such as \"Nvidia\" in product definition and scheme iteration cycle.<b>He predicts that a number of domestic GPU and DPU enterprises with leading technology will appear within 10 years.</b></p><p>\"Among the five links of the chip industry: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials and EDA, the most relevant to application is design, and our biggest advantage lies in application, so we have a great opportunity to make a breakthrough in the\" design \"link, and then gradually expand the territory of victory from point to point. The so-called \"corner overtaking\" is still a catch-up strategy. It is more likely to occupy a new strategic commanding height by cutting into a new future-oriented track and accelerating at full speed. I hope that within 10 years, a number of enterprises with leading technology, solid products and strategic awareness will emerge. \" Yan Guihai told Titanium Media App.</p><p>Zhang Wen, founder of Biren Technology, said that the capability requirements for chip companies have been upgraded from product level to system level and ecological level. In less than five years, China has caught up with or even led the international standard in the field of AI chip design. He stressed that going beyond Nvidia requires redefining a product, as well as redefining a market.</p><p><h2>Ten billion DPU chip market \"explodes\"</h2>In Huang Renxun's view, the data processing unit (DPU) responsible for transmitting and processing data in the data center is forming \"the three pillars of future computing\" together with CPU and GPU. When Chinese chip companies developed GPU, Nvidia set its sights on the two new markets of CPU and DPU.</p><p>In September 2020, Nvidia announced that it planned to acquire British chip designer Arm from a Japanese software group for US$40 billion, and it is expected to write the largest merger and acquisition case in the semiconductor industry. But the deal is controversial and awaits approval from governments including the European Union, Britain, the United States and China. But in April 2021, Nvidia announced its entry into the data center CPU market and released the Grace CPU processor, which is what Huang Renxun said at the beginning of this article. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"The British government intervened, and Nvidia's $40 billion acquisition of Arm transaction changed\")</p><p>In addition to CPU and GPU, Nvidia is also laying out DPU. In 2019, Nvidia announced the acquisition of Mellanox, an Israeli network chipmaker, for $6.9 billion in all-cash, and eventually won it. In this largest acquisition in Nvidia's history, what Huang Renxun values most is Meros's unique ability in data center technology and other aspects.<b>In October 2020, NVIDIA debuted its DPU — the NVIDIA BlueField series of data processors.</b></p><p>Fundamentally, on the one hand, DPU is more flexible and safe, and more importantly, DPU can free the computing power of CPU, release the load of server, significantly reduce the comprehensive cost with low power consumption, and even improve the performance of AI and machine learning applications.</p><p>According to IDC statistics, the global demand for computing power will double every 3.5 months, far exceeding the current growth rate of computing power. Driven by this, the global computing, storage and network infrastructure is also undergoing fundamental changes: some workloads with excessive data occupy too much CPU resources, and various \"X\" PU chips that cooperate with them have emerged. Besides GPU, FPGA and other chips, DPU is the next \"X\" PU.</p><p>People in the industry have made a vivid metaphor for this. The network is like building roads. In the past, the roads were not wide enough in the 1G and 10G era, and there were more and more cars. In order to balance the pressure, it was necessary to increase traffic lights and invest more traffic police to coordinate resources, which has improved the original efficiency a lot, but it is still not enough. First, we must expand the road, which is the increase of bandwidth. However, the road has changed from 2 to 4. Just relying on traffic lights and limited traffic police will still be blocked. However, we can't increase the traffic police indefinitely, which requires the road to be more intelligent and help solve the congestion.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan pointed out that a large amount of network management is in the CPU, which occupies the container capacity, while the DPU intelligently provides the space capacity of the server, and a large amount of virtualization space can increase the computing power demand.</p><p><b>With 2020, DPU's reputation exceeded the infrastructure processor (IPU) and SmartNIC launched by rival Intel, and it also made every enterprise eyeing data center business get a piece of this field. DPU has become a new track for major chip giants and start-up companies to compete for research and development. Domestic DPU is now almost in a state of blooming, and Sequoia, Hillhouse Venture Capital, CDH and SoftBank China have all begun to enter the market.</b></p><p>In April this year, Tianyan Check data showed that the domestic DPU chip supplier \"Cloud Leopard Intelligence\" completed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Investment, Sequoia Capital, Yaotu Capital and other joint angel round financing; At the end of May, Xinqiyuan completed hundreds of millions of yuan of Pre-A round of financing, with investors including SoftBank China and Pudong Science and Technology Group; On July 27th, DPU chip developer \"Zhongke Yushu\" completed hundreds of millions of yuan of Series A financing led by Huatai Innovation; On August 30th, Nebula Zhilian, a developer of DPU chips, announced the completion of hundreds of millions of angel round financing, led by Hillhouse Venture Capital, with CDH VGC and Walden International China Fund participating in the follow-up investment; At the beginning of September, IDG Capital threw the \"Yunmai Xinlian\" angel round financing project.</p><p>\"DPU may become the third computing chip after CPU and GPU, but from the structural point of view, DPU will be more heterogeneous and more dedicated.\" Yan Guihai said in an interview with Titanium Media App and others that the background of DPU is the demand for computing delay, data security and resource virtualization brought by the end-edge-cloud integration trend caused by the data explosion in the intelligent era. The CPU is overwhelmed with these non-business loads, and there is an urgent need for an ideal object to share these computational loads.</p><p><b>Leopard Research Institute predicts that China's DPU market is expected to reach 3.74 billion USD in 2025. The global DPU market size is expected to reach USD 13.57 billion in 2025.</b>At the same time, the report also pointed out that data circulation is the largest application market of DPU, among which bare metal services are just in demand for DPU. The application of DPU in the telecom market is mainly in edge computing scenarios, with a penetration rate of less than 5%. DPU for the field of intelligent driving is still in the exploratory stage, and it is expected that DPU will be deployed in the field of intelligent driving only in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170c585dab44018726df81a32c63d62\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>China DPU Market Size, Forecast 2020-2025, Source: Toubao Research Institute</p><p>Yan Guihai pointed out that the performance of CPU increased from 30% per year 5-10 years ago to less than 3% per year three years ago. However, the network bandwidth is still increasing by about 35% every year.</p><p>with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>For example, the challenge that the company encountered at that time was that transaction statement compliance checks were too slow, and it needed to improve transaction efficiency. Therefore, Zhongke Yushu, Zhongtai Securities and Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Co., Ltd. jointly developed a set of extremely fast risk control system solutions to speed up this process. Zhongke Yushu has successively developed a number of products and solutions such as ultra-low latency smart network card and data computing accelerator card, mainly for high bandwidth, low latency and data-intensive scenarios. The company has achieved quarterly revenue of tens of millions this year. Zhongke Yushu's next-generation DPU chip is expected to be designed by the end of 2021 and is expected to handle up to 200G of network bandwidth data.</p><p><b>However, although the DPU market is hot, the concept is newer, there are more unknowns, and the investment risk will be greater.</b></p><p>Lu Sheng, CEO of Xinqiyuan, pointed out that at present, the barriers of DPU segmentation track are still relatively high. In addition to technical barriers, there are also market barriers, which require customers to iterate continuously, especially with the continuous upgrading of open source software to adapt to customers' rapidly changing software and hardware environment. Therefore, VC (venture capital) must recognize the track and have enough patience before investing. He emphasized that investors need to constantly observe and adjust their judgments on the market. Now no one can predict the future development prospects of DPU.</p><p>Some media also believe that when Nvidia enters the newly opened battlefield of CPU and DPU, it may be good for Chinese GPU manufacturers. In particular, Nvidia still spends a lot of energy on the M&A transaction of acquiring British chip designer Arm for $40 billion, which may be an opportunity for new GPU companies to catch up.</p><p>As Zhang Gaonan said to Titanium Media App, \"Logically speaking, things with low thresholds are usually not scarce. (Chip semiconductor track) Some things are difficult and require a long time of investment. Although it is high risk, someone has to do it. This is a long-term investment that is really beneficial to the country. In fact, investment should be encouraged. Otherwise, no one will do these difficult things that require a long time of investment, and you will never get up the steps.\"</p><p>Zhang Gaonan emphasized that although venture capital must pursue returns, he believes that it is not only of strong social significance to invest in some start-ups in the semiconductor track under the condition that the whole capital is allocated reasonably, but also an important embodiment of some long-term value investment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When was \"Nvidia\" born in China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen was \"Nvidia\" born in China?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065587721\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">TMTPost </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 15:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>CEO Huang Renxun (Image source: Nvidia official website)</p><p>\"The product I am about to show, which integrates new GPU accelerated computing capabilities and has Mellanox high-performance network, is the world's first CPU processor designed for TB-level data center accelerated computing. Its secret code name is Grace.\"</p><p>This is a quote from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang during his speech at the GTC Summit in April 2021. However, unexpectedly, it was not until August 12th that NVIDIA exposed itself that people knew that the content of this speech of less than 100 words and 14 seconds was not Huang Renxun himself, but a synthetic \"digital stand-in\", that is, the \"virtual Huang Renxun\" image formed by NVIDIA GPU processor and Omniverse software platform.</p><p>This incident triggered heated discussions on technologies and concepts such as virtual reality, metaverse and AI face change. At the same time, it also made \"Nvidia\", the American chip overlord, \"out of the circle\" from the semiconductor industry and into the public eye.</p><p>Since its establishment in 1993, under the leadership of Huang Renxun, Nvidia has successfully created and led the category of GPU (graphics processor) chips, covering the whole PC device GPU to server GPU market. Over the past five years,<b>Nvidia grows from $31 billion to $505 billion in market capitalization, ranking as the world's seventh-largest semiconductor supplier, is an artificial<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>A hot star enterprise in the field of (AI) chips.</b></p><p>Meanwhile, after Nvidia's market cap exceeds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After that, the domestic semiconductor market saw greater market opportunities in GPU and AI chip tracks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300474\">Jing Jiawei</a>, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>Enterprises such as Muxi Integrated Circuit and Muxi Integrated Circuit gather in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In the past two years, the domestic semiconductor industry has undergone transformation. Thanks to Huawei HiSilicon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">SMIC</a>Affected by the US \"entity list\" and the chain reaction caused by the global chip shortage, it is more and more difficult for Chinese enterprises to purchase American semiconductor products, and the demand for \"domestic substitution\" is stronger and stronger.</p><p>On June 29, 2020, due to the upgrade of the U.S. Export Administration Regulations and the constant adjustment of enterprise members in the entity list, Intel \"temporarily suspended\" the supply of chips to Inspur Group.</p><p>Although on July 3rd, Inspur announced that Intel had resumed its supply, one was the world's largest PC and cloud service x86 architecture chip supplier, and the other was China's largest server manufacturer. The temporary supply cutoff crisis between the two companies raised a wake-up for the whole Chinese cloud computing and semiconductor industry:<b>With the increasingly strong demand for computing power, China needs to mass-produce fully independent and controllable domestic GPU and server chip products.</b>This highlights that \"domestic substitution\" is becoming the biggest driving force for the development of China's semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition, as a big chip selling country in the world, there is no chip giant like \"Nvidia\" in China, and the big market has not produced a matching big company.</b>According to the statistics of IC Insight, the global semiconductor market size in 2020 was US$395.7 billion, of which the market size in mainland China was US$43.4 billion, making it the largest market in the world, accounting for 36.24% of the global proportion. However, semiconductor companies headquartered in mainland China had a total output value of just $8.3 billion in 2020, representing only 5.9% of the market size.</p><p><b>Who could cut off a corner of a huge cake? When will the semiconductor industry create \"China's Nvidia\"?</b></p><p><h2>Missing out on the Golden Age</h2>GPU graphics processor, also known as display chip and vision processor, was first proposed by Nvidia in 1999. It is a microprocessor specialized in running drawing operations on personal computers, workstations, game consoles and mobile devices (smart phones, tablets, VR devices).</p><p>As the parallel computing advantages of GPU are gradually tapped, the application field of GPU expands from graphics processing to high-performance computing, and gradually becomes the most mature and widely used general-purpose chip in Al computing. In June 2020, Nvidia launched the A100 Tensor Core GPU based on Ampere architecture, becoming the world's most powerful AI chip.</p><p>From the perspective of application terminals, GPUs can be divided into PC GPUs, server GPUs and mobile GPUs, corresponding to three architectures, namely, independent graphics cards composed of special circuit boards and components, shared integrated graphics cards, and mobile GPUs packaged together with other chips or modules into highly integrated SoCs-which are applied to multiple application scenarios including mobile phones, automotive electronics and AI.</p><p><b>since<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>After the acquisition of ATI, a Canadian GPU manufacturer, in 2006, at present, in the field of PC and server GPUs, the global GPU market is monopolized by Intel, AMD and Nvidia, the \"Big Three American Chips\". Intel has obvious advantages in the integrated GPU market, while Nvidia and AMD are separated in the independent GPU market.</b></p><p>According to the data of Jon Peddie Research, a Research organization, in the first quarter of 2021, in the global PC-side GPU market, Intel (Intel) topped the list with a market share of 68%, followed by AMD and Nvidia with 17% and 14% respectively, and the total share of the three companies was close to 100%; In the global field of independent GPUs, Nvidia is the market leader of data center GPUs, accounting for 81% of the market share, and has a leading advantage, while AMD ranks second with 19%.</p><p>In 2019 alone, with products such as the V100 series, Nvidia occupied 90% of China's AI training chip market, firmly grasping China's huge AI chip sales market.</p><p>One of the core reasons why Nvidia can continue to be a \"chip overlord\" lies in its \"light design mode\". Nvidia does not do chip manufacturing and packaging, leaving it to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>OEM is completed, and it enjoys the dividend of advanced process technology such as 7nm. Between 2016 and 2021, Nvidia's revenue grew 233% and operating profit doubled to $4.5 billion, according to the earnings report. In the three months to May, sales jumped 84% year-on-year, while gross profit margin reached 64%.</p><p><b>In fact, China entered the field of GPU chip design very early, but the results were not satisfactory.</b></p><p><b>Since the 1970s, China began to introduce semiconductor and integrated circuit technologies and production lines. However, as a result, we have fallen into an a vicious circle of \"generation-to-generation introduction and generation-to-generation backwardness\". Coupled with the adverse impact of the \"Hanxin No.1\" fake chip incident on the society, China's \"autonomous processors\" have suffered serious setbacks, and China's active promotion of WTO globalization and other factors, thus missing the golden period of global semiconductor industry development, and downstream enterprises can only \"buy rather than make\".</b></p><p>By 2000, marked by the promulgation of the national \"Document No. 18\", China Semiconductor gradually formed an industrial organization form of \"separation of three industries\" in design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, and introduced \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>\"A group of chip manufacturing (Foundry) enterprises represented by China have been built and put into production, and their technical level has been rapidly improved.</p><p>At present, Jingjiawei, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology, Cambrian, Muxi IC and other enterprises are all gathered in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In 2014, Jingjiawei (300474.SH), which started as a military aircraft graphical display control module, successfully developed the military GPU chip JM5400, and then successfully developed the second generation GPU chip JM7200 with 28nm process technology in 2018. Jingjiawei has moved from military customization to general-purpose GPU, becoming one of the few companies in the world and the only company in China to realize commercial mass production of independent GPU.</p><p>In addition to Jingjiawei, in March 2021, Tianshu Zhixin released the first GPGPU (general-purpose graphics processor) manufactured by 7nm process in China, that is, 30% of the graphics rendering part of the traditional GPU was removed, and it was only born for handling artificial intelligence (AI) applications; In June this year, Suiyuan Technology released China's largest AI computing chip \"Sisi 2.0\" AI chip, \"Yunsui T20\" training accelerator card based on Sisi 2.0 and \"Yunsui T21\" training OAM module.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the performance of JM7200 chip developed by Jingjiawei is only equivalent to that of Nvidia GTX 640 in 2012, which is difficult to meet the application needs of enterprise customers. Even Suiyuan Technology's \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip only tied with Nvidia's A100, and two of the six projects tested by Benchmark greatly surpassed the performance of Nvidia A100. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"Suiyuan Technology releases China's largest AI computing chip to accelerate the implementation of three major business directions\")</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cb73d2787595547a9ed01926f4dfbe\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"1926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The reason behind this is mainly that China's semiconductor industry started late, the technical threshold of chips is high, the cost elasticity is high, and the industry is highly concentrated, which makes the overall R&D investment, technology and talents of Chinese GPU chip enterprises lag behind those of foreign countries. Therefore, there is still a gap with chip giants in product performance and technology, and it is still difficult for downstream enterprises to break away from the position of \"American Chip Big Three\".</b></p><p>Take R&D investment as an example. In the ten years from 2011 to 2020, Jingjiawei's R&D investment totaled RMB 627 million, while Nvidia's R&D investment in 2020 reached USD 3.924 billion, or about RMB 25.323 billion. In the ten years, Nvidia's total investment exceeded RMB 120 billion, with a difference of more than 190 times.</p><p>In terms of talent, as of the first half of 2021, Nvidia had a whopping 18,975 employees and Jingjiawei had a total of 1,174 employees, far lower than AMD's 2,000 employees in the Shanghai R&D center.</p><p>\"AI chip and GPU chip markets are quite special. Unlike traditional special-purpose processors, the technology is very complicated. It requires a lot of data and needs to be combined with specific algorithms before it can be put into the market.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>Xie Zhonghui, deputy general manager of China, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App in April this year that if an enterprise wants to make the first AI chip solid, it usually takes more than two or three years.</p><p>In his view, chip semiconductor itself is an industry with large investment, long cycle and slow results. Complete localization of technology requires long-term and sustained accumulation of capital, talents and technology, and it is difficult to deal with it with the Internet thinking of \"spending money to see returns\".</p><p><b>In addition, the software and hardware ecology combined with CUDA technology is another important reason for the big gap between domestic chip companies and Nvidia.</b></p><p>In 2006, Nvidia released the parallel computing platform CUDA, which contains a series of development tools. Only by installing and using this platform can complex parallel computing be performed. Anyone who owns a laptop equipped with Nvidia GPU can use CUDA to perform scientific and convenient programming calculations, such as deep learning, AI algorithms, etc., and develop related software. Over the past decade or so, NVIDIA has persistently promoted CUDA, so that more government and enterprise-level software has been developed based on this platform, and NVIDIA's self-developed GPU hardware has been combined with CUDA software to efficiently realize the application landing.</p><p>In contrast, at present, there is no series of platforms similar to CUDA and NVIDIA hardware deep binding in China, and the gap in technical barriers is very obvious. Most domestic GPU manufacturers have adopted the strategy of compatibility with CUDA open source framework, such as Tianshu Zhixin and Denglin, and are ready to cultivate their own software ecosystem on this basis.</p><p>\"In the short term, it is easier to develop domestic GPU compatible with CUDA. After all, writing operators is a manpower-intensive industry. If users migrate, they need to migrate 100%, and the whole set of codes have to run on your chip. If the amount of code is small, there are not so many operators needed, and the difficulty will be relatively low. But in the long run, it is still necessary to get rid of compatibility ideas and develop its own core technologies.\" According to chip industry insiders, choosing compatibility is mainly to ensure that the existing software is still available. In the future, it will continue to improve its own platform to make it more matched with its own chips, thus attracting developers to migrate.</p><p>However, some enterprises choose to be incompatible with CUDA ecology. For example, Suiyuan Technology, which does AI training and inference chips at the same time, has comprehensively upgraded its \"TopsRider\" software platform and a brand-new \"Yunsui Cluster\" this year, hoping to have ecological dominance.</p><p><b>To sum up, these domestic chip companies that benchmark Nvidia are still in the initial stage of development. The industrialization and marketization ability of AI chip technology is weak, and it has not actually been used on a large scale. There is still a long way to go before surpassing or replacing \"China Nvidia\".</b></p><p>Yan Guihai, CEO of Zhongke Yushu, said in an interview with Titanium Media App that although China's demand side is still the largest single market in the world, and its growth rate is among the best, the \"demand side\" is still very strong, but there is still a big gap in design and manufacturing of high-end chips, and the \"supply side\" is not strong enough. He pointed out that the advantages and disadvantages of the supply side depend not only on one enterprise, but on the capacity of the whole industrial chain. In the short term, it is still unrealistic to build such a large-scale and comprehensive leading enterprise.</p><p>Founded in 2018, Zhongke Yushu is a developer of dedicated computing architecture. It was incubated from the State Key Laboratory of Computer Architecture of Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Now the company's valuation has exceeded 1 billion yuan. On July 27th this year, Zhongke Yushu completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing, led by Huatai Innovation, followed by Lingjun Investment and the old shareholder Guoxin Sichuang.</p><p>Huang Liming, a partner at Hillhouse and head of software and hard technology at Hillhouse Ventures, said in an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App that although the GPU market is promising, China's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It is difficult to make \"Nvidia\" directly. In addition to technical difficulty, it has to be done in combination with strong applications-involving software system software ecology, which is extremely demanding for startups.</p><p>Hillhouse launched Hillhouse Venture Capital, an independent VC brand, in February 2020. Since then, it has invested in the field of chip semiconductors, including semiconductor IP company Xinyaohui, EDA manufacturer Xinhuazhang, GPU platform Biren Technology, DPU company Nebula Zhilian, plus Tianke Heda in silicon carbide, Minxin Semiconductor in optical chip field, and Xingsi Semiconductor in mobile phone baseband.</p><p>Huang Liming emphasized that there will not be many companies that can run out in this direction, whether overseas or domestic, in the end.</p><p><h2>The wind has arrived</h2>\"Let's not struggle with how to replace Nvidia now. The road is step by step. I think first of all, China has to have domestic AI chips, general-purpose GPUs, FPGAs and other underlying computing power. As long as there is domestic market demand, we must have many opportunities.\" Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of Huaying Capital, told Titanium Media App that the domestic semiconductor industry has arrived, and China's entry into the GPU market is \"the right time, the right place and the right people\". In particular, semiconductors and the next generation AI technology are areas that China must break through.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan gave an example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">Kingsoft Office</a>The product is inferior to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Office suite, but the market gives a market value of more than 110 billion yuan. One of the important reasons behind it is that China must have domestic Office, and the same reason applies to the domestic GPU market.</p><p>Huaying Capital is one of the earliest private equity funds in China To deploy mobile Internet and cultural industry. In recent years, To B field has also become the key investment area of Huaying Capital. At present, Huaying Capital has invested more than 30 projects in the To B field, with a total investment of over 700 million yuan, which are built by Zhang Gaonan, a technology investor. In the fields of data center and underlying computing power, Huaying Capital has invested in projects such as Biren Technology, Tianyun Big Data and Zhongke Haiwei.</p><p>In fact, as a general platform spanning visual computing and AI computing, GPU has a huge market space.<b>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>It is estimated that by 2027, the market space of domestic substitution in GPU field will exceed 34.1 billion USD. In addition to the existing game market, there is room for further development in industrial, medical, military aerospace and other directions.</b></p><p>In March this year, \"Biren Technology\", a general intelligent chip designer co-founded by Zhang Wen, the former president of Shangtang Technology, completed the B round of financing. Since its establishment in September 2019, the company's total financing amount has exceeded RMB 4.7 billion, and its investors include Hillhouse Venture Capital, Huaying Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">Ping An of China</a>China Merchants Capital, BAI Capital, Guosheng Group National Reform Fund, etc., with a valuation of over 10 billion yuan, making it one of the \"unicorn\" enterprises with the fastest momentum in the growing semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>In addition to Wall Ren, Mu Xi IC, Moore Thread and other enterprises in the GPU field have also completed financing.</b></p><p>On August 25th, Muxi Integrated Circuit, a GPU manufacturer, announced the completion of RMB 1 billion Series A financing. The founders Chen Weiliang and Yang Jian are all from American chip giant AMD, and the investors include China State-owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund Co., Ltd.,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00810\">China Internet Investment</a>Fund, Matrix Partners China, Holy Capital, Sequoia China, Lightspeed China, Guochuang Zhongding, Smart Internet Industry Fund, Shanghai Science and Technology Fund, Lenovo Venture Capital, etc.; Moore Thread, established in 2020, claimed to have completed two rounds of multi-billion yuan financing within 100 days. The team members are mainly from Nvidia, and the investors include Shenzhen Venture Capital and Sequoia Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">China Fund</a>China Merchants Venture Capital, ByteDance, Pony Zhixing, Wuyuan Capital, etc.</p><p><b>However, an interesting phenomenon is that the above three start-ups, namely Bi Ren, Mu Xi and Moore Thread, are veritable \"PPT financing core-making\", and none of them completed the taping of the first chip (trial production of assembly line) during financing.</b></p><p>Why are market investors willing to open their wallets to this? In an interview with Titanium Media App, several investors said that these projects can get a lot of capital support, all because of the early investment, mainly depending on the team and the track: the AI chip track has arrived, and the senior executive team is also from the \"American Chip Big Three\".</p><p>\"I think we need to give these enterprises opportunities and patience. It is impossible for 500 people to write PPT. Manufacturing chips is a matter of 5 to 10 years. The reason why we are willing to invest is not speculation or fooling. I think the risk of investing in the semiconductor track itself is high, and it is necessary to make long-term plans and have strong enough risk-taking capacity, which is completely different from the model innovation of investing in the Internet.\" The above-mentioned investors told Titanium Media App.</p><p>However, some investors in the semiconductor industry pointed out that the above-mentioned investment projects essentially hope to raise the market value and have a higher rate of return. Especially in the \"chip fever\" environment, venture capital institutions need to constantly look for these GPU and AI chip enterprise targets in the middle and early stages, hoping to gamble on a higher return.</p><p>In addition, in this wave of GPU entrepreneurship, the founding team teached the \"American Chip Big Three\". For example, Zheng Jinshan, chief scientist of Tianshu Zhixin, was the chief technical expert of AMD; Muxi's founding team is mainly from AMD. CEO Chen Weiliang once served as senior director of graphics research and development in AMD, and CTO Yang Jian once served as AMD Fellow (academician); Li Xinrong, the newly appointed co-CEO of Biren Technology, was once the global vice president of AMD, and Chen Wenzhong, senior vice president of Biren Technology, also served in AMD.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Gaonan said that AMD is the top two chip giants in the field of GPU. The core research and development of GPU is all in Shanghai, while the research and development of graphics rendering is in the United States. Enterprises can go to the executives of AMD and Nvidia to communicate, and the final choice is definitely the leader in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>Yan Guihai believes that in segmenting emerging tracks, with the application \"potential energy\" on the demand side, Chinese chip enterprises have concentrated their superior forces, based on serving local enterprises, and highlighted the agility of development, which is an opportunity to surpass chip giants such as \"Nvidia\" in product definition and scheme iteration cycle.<b>He predicts that a number of domestic GPU and DPU enterprises with leading technology will appear within 10 years.</b></p><p>\"Among the five links of the chip industry: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials and EDA, the most relevant to application is design, and our biggest advantage lies in application, so we have a great opportunity to make a breakthrough in the\" design \"link, and then gradually expand the territory of victory from point to point. The so-called \"corner overtaking\" is still a catch-up strategy. It is more likely to occupy a new strategic commanding height by cutting into a new future-oriented track and accelerating at full speed. I hope that within 10 years, a number of enterprises with leading technology, solid products and strategic awareness will emerge. \" Yan Guihai told Titanium Media App.</p><p>Zhang Wen, founder of Biren Technology, said that the capability requirements for chip companies have been upgraded from product level to system level and ecological level. In less than five years, China has caught up with or even led the international standard in the field of AI chip design. He stressed that going beyond Nvidia requires redefining a product, as well as redefining a market.</p><p><h2>Ten billion DPU chip market \"explodes\"</h2>In Huang Renxun's view, the data processing unit (DPU) responsible for transmitting and processing data in the data center is forming \"the three pillars of future computing\" together with CPU and GPU. When Chinese chip companies developed GPU, Nvidia set its sights on the two new markets of CPU and DPU.</p><p>In September 2020, Nvidia announced that it planned to acquire British chip designer Arm from a Japanese software group for US$40 billion, and it is expected to write the largest merger and acquisition case in the semiconductor industry. But the deal is controversial and awaits approval from governments including the European Union, Britain, the United States and China. But in April 2021, Nvidia announced its entry into the data center CPU market and released the Grace CPU processor, which is what Huang Renxun said at the beginning of this article. (For details, see the previous article of Titanium Media App: \"The British government intervened, and Nvidia's $40 billion acquisition of Arm transaction changed\")</p><p>In addition to CPU and GPU, Nvidia is also laying out DPU. In 2019, Nvidia announced the acquisition of Mellanox, an Israeli network chipmaker, for $6.9 billion in all-cash, and eventually won it. In this largest acquisition in Nvidia's history, what Huang Renxun values most is Meros's unique ability in data center technology and other aspects.<b>In October 2020, NVIDIA debuted its DPU — the NVIDIA BlueField series of data processors.</b></p><p>Fundamentally, on the one hand, DPU is more flexible and safe, and more importantly, DPU can free the computing power of CPU, release the load of server, significantly reduce the comprehensive cost with low power consumption, and even improve the performance of AI and machine learning applications.</p><p>According to IDC statistics, the global demand for computing power will double every 3.5 months, far exceeding the current growth rate of computing power. Driven by this, the global computing, storage and network infrastructure is also undergoing fundamental changes: some workloads with excessive data occupy too much CPU resources, and various \"X\" PU chips that cooperate with them have emerged. Besides GPU, FPGA and other chips, DPU is the next \"X\" PU.</p><p>People in the industry have made a vivid metaphor for this. The network is like building roads. In the past, the roads were not wide enough in the 1G and 10G era, and there were more and more cars. In order to balance the pressure, it was necessary to increase traffic lights and invest more traffic police to coordinate resources, which has improved the original efficiency a lot, but it is still not enough. First, we must expand the road, which is the increase of bandwidth. However, the road has changed from 2 to 4. Just relying on traffic lights and limited traffic police will still be blocked. However, we can't increase the traffic police indefinitely, which requires the road to be more intelligent and help solve the congestion.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan pointed out that a large amount of network management is in the CPU, which occupies the container capacity, while the DPU intelligently provides the space capacity of the server, and a large amount of virtualization space can increase the computing power demand.</p><p><b>With 2020, DPU's reputation exceeded the infrastructure processor (IPU) and SmartNIC launched by rival Intel, and it also made every enterprise eyeing data center business get a piece of this field. DPU has become a new track for major chip giants and start-up companies to compete for research and development. Domestic DPU is now almost in a state of blooming, and Sequoia, Hillhouse Venture Capital, CDH and SoftBank China have all begun to enter the market.</b></p><p>In April this year, Tianyan Check data showed that the domestic DPU chip supplier \"Cloud Leopard Intelligence\" completed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Investment, Sequoia Capital, Yaotu Capital and other joint angel round financing; At the end of May, Xinqiyuan completed hundreds of millions of yuan of Pre-A round of financing, with investors including SoftBank China and Pudong Science and Technology Group; On July 27th, DPU chip developer \"Zhongke Yushu\" completed hundreds of millions of yuan of Series A financing led by Huatai Innovation; On August 30th, Nebula Zhilian, a developer of DPU chips, announced the completion of hundreds of millions of angel round financing, led by Hillhouse Venture Capital, with CDH VGC and Walden International China Fund participating in the follow-up investment; At the beginning of September, IDG Capital threw the \"Yunmai Xinlian\" angel round financing project.</p><p>\"DPU may become the third computing chip after CPU and GPU, but from the structural point of view, DPU will be more heterogeneous and more dedicated.\" Yan Guihai said in an interview with Titanium Media App and others that the background of DPU is the demand for computing delay, data security and resource virtualization brought by the end-edge-cloud integration trend caused by the data explosion in the intelligent era. The CPU is overwhelmed with these non-business loads, and there is an urgent need for an ideal object to share these computational loads.</p><p><b>Leopard Research Institute predicts that China's DPU market is expected to reach 3.74 billion USD in 2025. The global DPU market size is expected to reach USD 13.57 billion in 2025.</b>At the same time, the report also pointed out that data circulation is the largest application market of DPU, among which bare metal services are just in demand for DPU. The application of DPU in the telecom market is mainly in edge computing scenarios, with a penetration rate of less than 5%. DPU for the field of intelligent driving is still in the exploratory stage, and it is expected that DPU will be deployed in the field of intelligent driving only in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170c585dab44018726df81a32c63d62\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>China DPU Market Size, Forecast 2020-2025, Source: Toubao Research Institute</p><p>Yan Guihai pointed out that the performance of CPU increased from 30% per year 5-10 years ago to less than 3% per year three years ago. However, the network bandwidth is still increasing by about 35% every year.</p><p>with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>For example, the challenge that the company encountered at that time was that transaction statement compliance checks were too slow, and it needed to improve transaction efficiency. Therefore, Zhongke Yushu, Zhongtai Securities and Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Co., Ltd. jointly developed a set of extremely fast risk control system solutions to speed up this process. Zhongke Yushu has successively developed a number of products and solutions such as ultra-low latency smart network card and data computing accelerator card, mainly for high bandwidth, low latency and data-intensive scenarios. The company has achieved quarterly revenue of tens of millions this year. Zhongke Yushu's next-generation DPU chip is expected to be designed by the end of 2021 and is expected to handle up to 200G of network bandwidth data.</p><p><b>However, although the DPU market is hot, the concept is newer, there are more unknowns, and the investment risk will be greater.</b></p><p>Lu Sheng, CEO of Xinqiyuan, pointed out that at present, the barriers of DPU segmentation track are still relatively high. In addition to technical barriers, there are also market barriers, which require customers to iterate continuously, especially with the continuous upgrading of open source software to adapt to customers' rapidly changing software and hardware environment. Therefore, VC (venture capital) must recognize the track and have enough patience before investing. He emphasized that investors need to constantly observe and adjust their judgments on the market. Now no one can predict the future development prospects of DPU.</p><p>Some media also believe that when Nvidia enters the newly opened battlefield of CPU and DPU, it may be good for Chinese GPU manufacturers. In particular, Nvidia still spends a lot of energy on the M&A transaction of acquiring British chip designer Arm for $40 billion, which may be an opportunity for new GPU companies to catch up.</p><p>As Zhang Gaonan said to Titanium Media App, \"Logically speaking, things with low thresholds are usually not scarce. (Chip semiconductor track) Some things are difficult and require a long time of investment. Although it is high risk, someone has to do it. This is a long-term investment that is really beneficial to the country. In fact, investment should be encouraged. Otherwise, no one will do these difficult things that require a long time of investment, and you will never get up the steps.\"</p><p>Zhang Gaonan emphasized that although venture capital must pursue returns, he believes that it is not only of strong social significance to invest in some start-ups in the semiconductor track under the condition that the whole capital is allocated reasonably, but also an important embodiment of some long-term value investment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166195813","content_text":"英伟达CEO黄仁勋（图片来源：Nvidia官网）\n“我即将展示的产品，融合了新的GPU加速计算能力，拥有Mellanox高性能网络，补足我们最后一块拼图的产品是——全球首款专为TB级数据中心加速计算而设计的CPU处理器，它的秘密代号是Grace。”\n这是2021年4月英伟达（NVIDIA）CEO黄仁勋在GTC峰会演讲中的一段话。然而，让人意想不到的是，直到8月12日英伟达自曝后人们才知道，这段不足100字、14秒的演讲内容竟然不是黄仁勋本人出镜，而是使用了合成的“数字替身”，即利用英伟达GPU处理器与Omniverse软件平台共同形成的“虚拟黄仁勋”形象。\n这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。\n自1993年成立至今，在黄仁勋的带领下，英伟达成功创造且引领了GPU（图形处理器）芯片这一类别，产品覆盖整个PC设备GPU至服务器GPU市场。过去五年内，英伟达市值从310亿美元增长到5050亿美元，跻身成为全球第七大半导体供应商，是人工智能（AI）芯片领域炙手可热的明星企业。\n与此同时，在英伟达市值超过英特尔之后，国内半导体市场看到了GPU、AI芯片赛道更大的市场机会，景嘉微、天数智芯、登临科技、壁仞科技、燧原科技、寒武纪、沐曦集成电路等企业均在通用处理器这一赛道中集聚。\n近两年，国内半导体产业发生着转变。由于华为海思、中芯国际等企业受美方“实体清单”影响，以及全球芯片短缺引发的连锁反应，使得中国企业愈加难采购到美国半导体产品，对于“国产替代”需求愈加强烈。\n2020年6月29日，由于美国《出口管理条例》再升级，实体清单企业成员在不断调整，英特尔“临时性暂停”对浪潮集团的芯片供货。\n尽管随后在7月3日，浪潮方面宣布英特尔已恢复对其供货，但一家是全球最大的PC、云服务x86架构芯片供应商，另一方是中国最大的服务器厂商，两家公司之间的临时断供危机，为整个中国云计算、半导体行业提了一个醒：随着算力需求越来越强烈，中国需要大规模生产全面自主可控的国产GPU、服务器芯片产品。从而凸显了“国产替代”正成为中国半导体行业发展的最大驱动力。\n另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。根据IC Insight的统计显示，2020年全球半导体市场规模为3957亿美元，其中，中国大陆市场规模是434亿美元，为全球最大市场，占全球比例达到36.24%。然而，总部位于中国大陆的半导体公司2020年总产值仅为83亿美元，仅占市场规模的5.9%。\n偌大的蛋糕，究竟谁能切下一角？半导体产业何时才能造出“中国英伟达”？\n错失黄金时代\nGPU图形处理器又被称为显示芯片、视觉处理器，最初于1999年由英伟达提出，是个人电脑、工作站、游戏主机以及移动设备（智能手机、平板电脑、VR设备）上专门运行绘图运算的微处理器。\n随着GPU的并行计算优势被逐步挖掘，GPU的应用领域从图形处理扩展到高性能计算，逐步成为Al计算最成熟、应用最广泛的通用型芯片。2020年6月，英伟达推出基于安培（Ampere）架构的A100 Tensor Core GPU，成为全球性能最强的AI芯片。\n以应用终端角度分类，GPU可分为PC端GPU、服务器GPU和移动端GPU，对应三种架构，即与专用电路板及组件组成的独立显卡，共享集成显卡，以及移动端GPU与其他芯片或模块一起封装成高集成度的SoC——应用于手机、汽车电子、AI在内的多个应用场景。\n自从AMD在2006年收购加拿大GPU厂商ATI之后，目前，在PC及服务器GPU领域，全球GPU市场呈现“美国芯片三巨头”——英特尔、AMD和英伟达垄断的局面。集成GPU市场英特尔优势明显，独立GPU市场英伟达和AMD两强割据。\n根据研究机构Jon Peddie Research的数据显示，2021年第一季度，全球PC端GPU市场中，英特尔（Intel）以68%市场份额位居榜首，AMD和英伟达分别为17%和14%，三家共计份额接近100%；全球独立GPU领域中，英伟达是数据中心GPU市场领导者，占据81%的市场份额，拥有领先优势，AMD则以占比19%位居第二。\n仅2019年，英伟达凭借V100系列等产品，占据了中国AI训练芯片市场90%份额，牢牢掌握着中国这一庞大的AI芯片销售市场。\n英伟达能持续作为“芯片霸主”地位的核心原因之一在于其“轻设计模式”。英伟达不做芯片制造和封装，交由台积电代工完成，自身享受7nm等先进制程工艺技术红利。根据财报显示，2016年至2021年期间，英伟达收入增长了233%，营业利润翻了一番，达到45亿美元。在截至今年5月的三个月内，销售额同比猛增84%，毛利率则达到了64%。\n事实上，中国很早就进入了GPU芯片设计领域，但结果并不如意。\n从20世纪70年代开始，中国开始引进半导体与集成电路技术和生产线。但结果却是陷入了“代代引进、代代落后”的恶性循环，加上“汉芯一号”假芯片事件给社会带来的不良影响，让中国的“自主处理器”遭受严重挫败，以及中国积极推动WTO全球化等因素，从而错失了全球半导体产业发展的黄金时期，下游企业只能“造不如买”。\n到2000年，以国家“18号文件”出台为标志，中国半导体才逐渐形成设计、制造、封装测试“三业分离”的产业组织形态，引进以“中芯国际”为代表的一批芯片制造（Foundry）企业在华建设、投产，技术水平也因此得到快速提升。\n目前，景嘉微、天数智芯、登临科技、壁仞科技、燧原科技、寒武纪、沐曦集成电路等企业均在通用处理器这一赛道中集聚。\n2014年，以军机图形显示控制模块起家的“景嘉微”（300474.SH）成功研制出军用GPU芯片JM5400，随后在2018年成功研发出28nm制程工艺的第二代GPU芯片JM7200。景嘉微从军用定制走向通用GPU，成为全球少数、国内唯一实现独立GPU商用量产的公司。\n除景嘉微外，2021年3月天数智芯发布了国内首颗7纳米工艺制造的GPGPU（通用图形处理器），即去掉了传统GPU 30%的图形渲染部分，只为处理人工智能（AI）应用而生；燧原科技则在今年6月发布了迄今中国最大的AI计算芯片“邃思2.0”AI芯片、基于邃思2.0的“云燧T20”训练加速卡和“云燧T21”训练OAM模组。\n但值得注意的是，景嘉微研发的JM7200芯片，性能只相当于2012年英伟达GTX 640水平，难以满足企业客户的应用需求。即便燧原科技的“邃思2.0”AI芯片，也仅和英伟达的A100达成平手，Benchmark测试的6个项目中有2项大幅超越了英伟达A100的性能表现。（详见钛媒体App前文：《燧原科技发布中国最大的AI计算芯片，加速推进三大业务方向落地》）\n\n背后的原因，主要由于中国半导体产业起步晚，芯片的技术门槛高、成本弹性大、产业高度集中，使得中国GPU芯片企业的整体研发投入、技术、人才都滞后于国外，从而在产品性能和技术上依然和芯片巨头有差距，下游企业依然难以脱离“美国芯片三巨头”的境地。\n以研发投入为例，2011年至2020年的十年间，景嘉微的研发投入费用总额为人民币6.27亿元，而英伟达2020年这一年的研发投入就达到39.24亿美元，约合人民币253.23亿元，十年间英伟达总计投入超过1200亿元人民币，两者相差超190倍。\n在人才方面，截至2021年上半年，英伟达员工人数高达18975人，景嘉微总员工人数为1174人，远低于AMD在上海研发中心的2000名员工。\n“AI芯片、GPU芯片市场比较特殊，跟传统的专用处理器不一样，技术十分复杂。它需要大量的数据，需要和特定的算法结合，才能够付诸市场运用。”新思科技中国副总经理谢仲辉在今年4月接受钛媒体App独家专访时表示，如果企业想把首颗AI芯片做扎实，通常需要两三年以上。\n在他看来，芯片半导体本身是一个投入大、周期长、见效慢的行业，技术完全国产化需要长期持续的资金、人才和技术积累，很难用“砸金钱见回报”这种互联网思维来处理。\n此外，结合CUDA技术的软硬件生态，也是国内芯片企业与英伟达形成较大差距的另一重要原因。\n2006年，英伟达就发布了并行计算平台CUDA，其中包含一系列开发工具，只有安装使用这个平台才能够进行复杂的并行计算，任何人只要拥有一台配有英伟达GPU的笔记本电脑，就可以利用CUDA可以进行科学、便捷编程计算，比如深度学习、AI算法等，开发相关软件。过去十多年，英伟达坚持不懈地推广CUDA，使更多政企级类型软件都基于该平台开发，将英伟达自研GPU硬件与CUDA软件相结合，高效实现应用落地。\n相比之下，目前国内却没有一个类似CUDA和英伟达硬件深度绑定的系列平台，技术壁垒差距十分明显。大部分国产GPU厂商均采取兼容CUDA开源框架的策略，如天数智芯、登临等，准备在此基础上培育自己的软件生态。\n“短期来看，国产GPU兼容CUDA更容易发展，毕竟写算子是人力密集型行业，用户迁移的话是需要100%迁移、整套代码都要在你的片上跑，如果代码量很小，需要的算子不那么多，难度就比较低。但是长期来看，还是要摆脱兼容思路，发展自有的核心技术。”芯片行业内人士表示，选择兼容主要是确保已有软件依然可用，未来会不断改进自家平台，使其更加匹配自己的芯片，从而吸引开发者迁移。\n但也有企业选择不兼容CUDA生态，比如同时做AI训练和推理芯片的燧原科技，今年全面升级了其“驭算TopsRider”软件平台以及全新的“云燧集群”，希望能拥有生态主导权。\n总结来看，对标英伟达的这些国内芯片企业依然处在发展的初级阶段，AI芯片技术的产业化、市场化能力较弱，没有产生实际的大规模使用，距离超越或取代“中国英伟达”仍然有很长的路要走。\n中科驭数CEO鄢贵海在接受钛媒体App采访时表示，虽然目前中国需求侧虽然还是全球最大的单一市场，增速也名列前茅，“需求侧”还是很强劲的，但在高端芯片方面无论是设计还是制造还有不小差距，“供给侧”不够强大。他指出，供给侧的优劣不仅取决于一家企业，而是全产业链能力。短期内要想打造出这样大体量和全面引领性的企业还是不太现实的。\n中科驭数成立于2018年，是一家专用计算架构研发商，孵化自中科院计算所的计算机体系结构国家重点实验室，如今公司估值已超10亿元。今年7月27日，中科驭数完成数亿元A轮融资，由华泰创新领投，灵均投资以及老股东国新思创跟投。\n高瓴合伙人、高瓴创投软件与硬科技负责人黄立明在接受钛媒体App的独家专访时表示，虽然GPU市场前景广阔，但中国创业公司很难直接做成“英伟达”。除了技术难度外，还要结合很强的应用来做——涉及到软件系统软件生态，这对创业公司来说要求是极高的。\n高瓴于2020年2月推出独立VC品牌高瓴创投，此后其对芯片半导体领域进行投资入局，其中包括半导体IP企业芯耀辉、EDA厂商芯华章，GPU平台壁仞科技、DPU公司星云智联，加上碳化硅方面的天科合达、光芯片领域的敏芯半导体、以及手机基带星思半导体等。\n黄立明强调，能在这个方向跑出来的公司，无论海外还是国内，高瓴判断最终都不会有很多。\n风口已至\n“我们现在先不纠结于怎么去取代英伟达，路都是一步一步走的。我觉得首先中国得有国产AI芯片、通用GPU、FPGA等底层算力。只要国内有市场需求，我们一定有很多机会。”华映资本主管合伙人章高男对钛媒体App表示，国内半导体产业风口已至，中国现在切入GPU市场是“天时、地利、人和”皆备，尤其半导体和下一代AI技术都是中国必须突围的领域。\n章高男举了一个例子，金山办公产品虽然逊于微软Office套件，但市场给出1100多亿元市值，背后重要原因之一是，中国必须得有国产office，同样道理也适用于国产的GPU市场。\n华映资本是国内最早布局移动互联网和文化产业的私募股权基金之一，近几年To B领域也成为华映资本重点关注的投资领域。目前华映资本在To B领域投资的30余个项目，投资总额超7亿元生态，由技术型投资人章高男负责搭建。在数据中台及底层算力相关领域，华映资本投资布局了壁仞科技、天云大数据，中科海微等项目。\n实际上，作为横跨视觉计算和AI计算的通用平台，GPU拥有巨大的市场空间。据东吴证券测算，预计到2027年，GPU领域国产替代的市场空间规模超过341亿美元。除了既有的游戏市场，在工业、医疗、军事航天等方向都有进一步的发挥空间。\n今年3月，原商汤科技总裁张文联合创立的通用智能芯片设计商“壁仞科技”完成了B轮融资。2019年9月成立以来，公司总融资额超47亿元人民币，投资方包括高瓴创投、华映资本、中国平安、招商局资本、BAI资本、国盛集团国改基金等，估值已超过100亿元，成长半导体行业势头最为迅猛的“独角兽”企业之一。\n除壁仞外，沐曦集成电路、摩尔线程等入局GPU领域的企业也都完成了融资。\n8月25日，GPU厂商沐曦集成电路宣布完成10亿元人民币的A轮融资，创始人陈维良、杨建等均来自美国芯片巨头AMD，投资方包括中国国有企业结构调整基金股份有限公司、中国互联网投资基金、经纬中国、和利资本、红杉中国、光速中国、国创中鼎、智慧互联产业基金、上海科创基金、联想创投等；而2020年成立的摩尔线程，宣称100天内就完成了两轮数十亿元融资，团队成员主要来自英伟达，投资方包括深创投、红杉资本中国基金、招商局创投、字节跳动、小马智行、五源资本等。\n不过，一个有趣的现象是，壁仞、沐曦、摩尔线程上述三家初创企业是名副其实的“PPT融资造芯”，融资时无一家完成首颗芯片的流片（流水线试生产）。\n为何市场投资人愿意对此敞开钱包？数位投资人在接受钛媒体App采访时表示，这些项目能够获得大量资本支持，原因都为投资早期，主要看的还是团队、赛道两部分：AI芯片赛道风口已至，高管团队也均出自“美国芯片三巨头”。\n“我觉得需要给这些企业机会和耐心，不可能500个人都在写PPT。制造芯片是一个5年到10年的事情，我们愿意去投的原因，并非是投机或者是忽悠。我认为，投半导体赛道本身风险就高，需要做好长周期的打算，需要有足够强的风险承担能力，这和投资互联网的模式创新完全不一样。”上述投资人对钛媒体App表示。\n但也有半导体行业投资人指出，上述投资项目本质上还是希望市值撑高，有更高的回报率，尤其“芯片热”环境下，风投机构需要不断在中早期寻找这些GPU、AI芯片企业标的，希望从中赌得一份更高的回报。\n此外，在这一波GPU创业浪潮中，创始团队师出“美国芯片三巨头”。例如，天数智芯首席科学家郑金山曾任AMD首席技术专家；沐曦的创始团队主要来自AMD，CEO陈维良曾在AMD担任图形研发高级总监，CTO杨建曾任AMD Fellow（院士）；壁仞科技最新上任的联席CEO李新荣，曾任AMD全球副总裁，壁仞科技高级副总裁陈文中也曾在AMD任职。\n对此，章高男表示，AMD是GPU领域排名前二的芯片巨头，关于GPU核心研发都在上海，而图形渲染的研发是在美国，企业可以去找AMD和英伟达两家公司高管去沟通，而最终选择的人肯定是半导体行业内的佼佼者。\n鄢贵海认为，在细分新兴赛道，凭借需求侧的应用“势能”，中国芯片企业集中优势兵力，立足服务本土企业，突出开发的敏捷性，是有机会在产品定义、方案迭代周期上超越“英伟达”这些芯片巨头。他预计，10年内会出现一批技术领先的国产GPU、DPU企业。\n“芯片产业五个环节：设计、制造、封测、材料、EDA五个环节中，与应用最相关的是设计，我们最大的优势又在于应用，所以非常有机会在“设计”这一环节取得突破，然后以点带面，逐步扩大胜利版图。所谓“弯道超车”还是追赶策略，切入面向未来的新赛道并且全力加速才更有可能占据新的战略制高点。希望能在10年内能出现一批技术领先、产品扎实而且富有战略意识的企业。”鄢贵海对钛媒体App表示。\n壁仞科技创始人张文表示，对芯片公司的能力要求从产品级提升到系统级和生态级。时间上不超过5年，中国在AI芯片设计领域赶上甚至领先国际水准。他强调，超越英伟达，需要重新定义一个产品，以及重新定义一个市场。\n百亿DPU芯片市场“爆火”\n在黄仁勋看来，负责在数据中心传输和处理数据的数据处理单元（DPU），正与CPU、GPU共同组成“未来计算的三大支柱”。当中国芯片企业发力GPU时，英伟达则把目光放在了CPU、DPU这两个新市场中。\n2020年9月，英伟达宣布拟以400亿美元，从日本软件集团处收购英国芯片设计商Arm，预计写下半导体行业最大的并购案。但这笔交易存有争议，目前还等待欧盟、英国、美国和中国等政府的批准。但2021年4月，英伟达则宣布进军数据中心CPU市场，发布Grace CPU处理器，也就是本文开头黄仁勋所讲的那一段话。（详见钛媒体App前文：《英国政府出手干预，英伟达400亿美元并购Arm交易生变》）\nCPU和GPU之外，英伟达还在布局DPU。2019年，英伟达宣布以69亿美元全现金的形式收购以色列网络芯片商迈络思（Mellanox），并最终将其拿下。而这笔英伟达有史以来规模最大的收购，黄仁勋最看重的就是迈络思在数据中心技术等方面独步天下的能力。2020年10月，英伟达首次推出了DPU — NVIDIA BlueField系列数据处理器。\n究其根本，一方面DPU更灵活安全，更重要的是，DPU可以解放CPU的算力，释放服务器的负载，并凭借低功耗显著降低综合成本，甚至还可以改善AI和机器学习应用的性能。\n据IDC统计，全球算力的需求每3.5个月就会翻一倍，远远超过了当前算力的增长速度。在此驱动下，全球计算、存储和网络基础设施也在发生根本转变：一些数据量过大的工作负载，过多占用CPU资源，与之协同作战的各种“X”PU芯片便应运而生，GPU、FPGA等芯片之外，DPU就是下一个“X”PU。\n业内人士就此做了一个形象的比喻，网络就像造马路，以前1G 10G时代马路已经不够宽了，车子越来越多，为了平衡压力，通过增加红绿灯和投入更多的交警来更高的协调资源，这样已经让原来的效率提高很多，但是仍然不够。必须第一扩大马路，这就是带宽增加，但是马路从2道变为4道，仅仅依靠红绿灯和有限的交警还是会堵塞，但是我们不能无限增加交警，这就需要马路能更加智能，帮助解决拥堵。\n章高男指出，大量的网络管理在CPU里面，占据了容器能力，而DPU则是将服务器智能提供空间能力，大量虚拟化空间可以提高算力需求。\n随着2020年，DPU的名声超出了竞争对手英特尔所推出的基础设施处理器(IPU)和SmartNIC，也让每个对数据中心业务虎视眈眈的企业都要在这个领域分一杯羹。DPU成为了各大芯片巨头、初创公司争相研发的新赛道，国产DPU现在几乎处在百花齐放的状态，红杉、高瓴创投、鼎晖、软银中国都开始入场。\n今年4月，天眼查数据显示，国产DPU芯片供应商“云豹智能”完成腾讯投资、红杉资本、耀途资本等联合的天使轮融资；5月末，芯启源完成数亿元Pre-A轮融资，投资方包括软银中国、浦东科创集团等；7月27日，DPU芯片研发商“中科驭数”完成华泰创新领投的数亿元A轮融资；8月30日，DPU芯片研发商星云智联宣布完成了数亿元天使轮融资，由高瓴创投领投，鼎晖VGC、华登国际中国基金参与跟投；9月初，IDG资本豪掷“云脉芯联”天使轮融资项目。\n“DPU有可能成为继CPU和GPU之后的第三颗算力芯片，但从结构上来看，DPU会更异构、也更专用。”鄢贵海在接受钛媒体App等采访时表示，DPU产生的背景是智能时代数据爆发导致的端-边-云一体化趋势带来的对计算延迟、数据安全、资源虚拟化需求。CPU对这些非业务性负载已不堪重负，迫切需要一个理想的对象来分担这些计算负载。\n头豹研究院则预测，中国DPU市场规模预计将在2025年达到37.4亿美元。全球DPU市场规模2025年预计将达到135.7亿美元。同时报告也指出，数据流通是DPU最大的应用市场，其中裸金属服务其对DPU存在刚需。DPU在电信市场的应用主要为边缘计算场景，渗透率不足5%。针对智能驾驶领域的DPU仍在探索阶段，预计在2023年DPU才有望布局在智能驾驶领域。\n中国DPU市场规模，2020-2025年预测，来源：头豹研究院\n鄢贵海指出，CPU的性能从5-10年前每年30%的增幅，到三年前大概只有每年不到3%的性能增幅。而网络带宽每年依旧还有35%左右的增长。\n以中泰证券为例，当时该公司遇到的挑战是，交易报单合规检查太慢，需要提高交易效率。于是，中科驭数与中泰证券、上交所技术有限责任公司联合研发了一套极速风控系统解决方案，来加速这一流程。中科驭数相继研发了超低时延智能网卡、数据计算加速卡等多套产品和解决方案，主要面向高带宽、低时延、数据密集型等场景。该公司今年已经实现千万级别的季度营收。中科驭数的下一代DPU芯片预计将于2021年底完成设计，预计可处理高达200G网络带宽数据。\n不过，DPU市场虽然火爆，但概念较新，未知更多，投资风险也会更大。\n芯启源CEO卢笙指出，目前DPU细分赛道的壁垒还是相对较高的，除了技术壁垒之外，还有市场的壁垒，需要客户不断迭代，尤其是配合开源软件不断升级去适配客户快速变化的软硬件环境。因此VC（风险投资）在投资之前，一定要先认可赛道，且有足够的耐心。他强调，投资人需要对市场进行不断地观察并调整判断，现在谁也无法预料未来DPU发展前景。\n也有媒体认为，当英伟达进入新开辟的CPU和DPU战场，对中国的GPU厂商或许是个利好，尤其英伟达依然花大量精力放在400亿美元收购英国芯片设计商Arm公司的并购交易上，这对新创GPU企业而言，可能是个追赶的时机。\n正如章高男对钛媒体App所说，“从逻辑上讲，门槛不高的事情通常稀缺性都不高。（芯片半导体赛道）有些事情是很难的，需要长时间投入，虽然是高风险，但总归得有人去做。这是真正对国家有利的长远投入，其实应该鼓励投资。否则的话，这些需要长时间投入的难事，谁都不去做，你永远上不了台阶。”\n章高男强调，虽然风险投资肯定要追求回报，但他认为，在整个资金分配合理情况下，拿出一部分投资半导体赛道的初创企业，不仅有极强的社会意义，更是某种长期价值投资的重要体现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889800809,"gmtCreate":1631122579301,"gmtModify":1676530474613,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889800809","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had envisioned a summer when the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, kids returning to school and corner coffee shops opening again. But everything backfired, and with the resurgence of the pandemic, the recovery stepped on the brakes in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the shocking data on non-farm payrolls brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years in August, with Americans worried by the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. ET on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths were reported across the United States.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the U.S. has averaged more than 161,000 new cases a day, a whopping 1,560 new deaths and an average of more than 102,000 daily hospitalizations, only slightly below last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, U.S. offices and schools have been delayed, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Beginning in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, and some have even pushed back their return dates to 2022.</b></p><p>Visitor arrivals to Hawaii have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels in mid-July, down only about 10% from the same time in 2019, official figures show. But starting in August, the pace has slowed somewhat, and in the last seven days of August, average daily visitor arrivals were down 34% from 2019.</p><p>Theater footfall at the end of August more than halved compared to the pandemic peak in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online instruction.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying the reopening of schools was supposed to be a big moment for the economy. About a quarter of families have school-aged children, and reliable child care can get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under the age of 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>\"Our sense of uncertainty and anxiety from last year is back, and that uncertainty is enough to dampen labor supply,\" Meier said.</b></p><p><h2>Institutions are cutting U.S. growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant virus won't push the U.S. back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and discouraging companies from investing amid new uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released on Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast this year to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate this year is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%.</p><p>In explaining why they cut their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several major factors,<b>It is expected that due to the raging virus variant Delta, weakening government financial support, and the shift in demand from goods to services, American consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"The obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future seem to be much more: the Delta variant virus is already pressuring growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down, which will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also sharply lowered the U.S. GDP forecast in the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast in the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising the GDP forecast for the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's GDP growth rate for the United States this year is expected to be 5.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate for the whole year after Goldman Sachs lowered this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the stimulus expenditure of government has decreased to the economy, and the bottleneck of supply chain continues to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer expenditure on large-scale durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>Two consecutive losses in U.S. stocks, a bigger test is behind</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow dropped more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since Aug. 19 and its biggest closing drop since Aug. 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since Aug. 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow and S&P closed lower after the non-farm payrolls report, which was far worse than expected, was released last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline of most sectors of U.S. stocks. The prices of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds both fell during the session, the yield of Treasury Bond rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield reached a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reevaluating the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate earnings.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures in the United States, the economic recovery in the United States will face further tests.</b></p><p>More than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits during the pandemic this week.<b>In addition to halting pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt hikes have created additional tests for the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that although it seems likely that the US Congress will pass an infrastructure bill this autumn, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress could vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending — another short-term risk to markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the increase in the debt ceiling this autumn. The U.S. Congress needs to pass a debt ceiling increase later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had envisioned a summer when the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, kids returning to school and corner coffee shops opening again. But everything backfired, and with the resurgence of the pandemic, the recovery stepped on the brakes in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the shocking data on non-farm payrolls brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years in August, with Americans worried by the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. ET on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths were reported across the United States.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the U.S. has averaged more than 161,000 new cases a day, a whopping 1,560 new deaths and an average of more than 102,000 daily hospitalizations, only slightly below last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, U.S. offices and schools have been delayed, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Beginning in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, and some have even pushed back their return dates to 2022.</b></p><p>Visitor arrivals to Hawaii have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels in mid-July, down only about 10% from the same time in 2019, official figures show. But starting in August, the pace has slowed somewhat, and in the last seven days of August, average daily visitor arrivals were down 34% from 2019.</p><p>Theater footfall at the end of August more than halved compared to the pandemic peak in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online instruction.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying the reopening of schools was supposed to be a big moment for the economy. About a quarter of families have school-aged children, and reliable child care can get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under the age of 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>\"Our sense of uncertainty and anxiety from last year is back, and that uncertainty is enough to dampen labor supply,\" Meier said.</b></p><p><h2>Institutions are cutting U.S. growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant virus won't push the U.S. back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and discouraging companies from investing amid new uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released on Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast this year to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate this year is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%.</p><p>In explaining why they cut their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several major factors,<b>It is expected that due to the raging virus variant Delta, weakening government financial support, and the shift in demand from goods to services, American consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"The obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future seem to be much more: the Delta variant virus is already pressuring growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down, which will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also sharply lowered the U.S. GDP forecast in the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast in the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising the GDP forecast for the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's GDP growth rate for the United States this year is expected to be 5.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate for the whole year after Goldman Sachs lowered this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the stimulus expenditure of government has decreased to the economy, and the bottleneck of supply chain continues to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer expenditure on large-scale durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>Two consecutive losses in U.S. stocks, a bigger test is behind</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow dropped more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since Aug. 19 and its biggest closing drop since Aug. 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since Aug. 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow and S&P closed lower after the non-farm payrolls report, which was far worse than expected, was released last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline of most sectors of U.S. stocks. The prices of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds both fell during the session, the yield of Treasury Bond rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield reached a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reevaluating the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate earnings.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures in the United States, the economic recovery in the United States will face further tests.</b></p><p>More than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits during the pandemic this week.<b>In addition to halting pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt hikes have created additional tests for the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that although it seems likely that the US Congress will pass an infrastructure bill this autumn, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress could vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending — another short-term risk to markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the increase in the debt ceiling this autumn. The U.S. Congress needs to pass a debt ceiling increase later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834684230,"gmtCreate":1629797562520,"gmtModify":1676530134416,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834684230","repostId":"1140946559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140946559","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1629785482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140946559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street Optimists: The Peak of the Pandemic in the United States is Approaching, and it is Bargain-hunting to Restart Trading Opportunities","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140946559","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。\n\n美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初","content":"<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets, believes that the new wave of the pandemic will be effectively contained in the fourth quarter, and investors should start buying stocks that had previously fallen sharply in August instead of waiting until October. US optimists believe the number of new cases in other parts of the country will also be effectively contained in the near future as case numbers decline in areas of the initial Delta variant outbreak in the United States.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>Statistics show that the United States faced a new wave of outbreak at the end of June, and in recent days, the average daily number of new cases in the United States has approached 150,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7a7969baf4d258fded3fd6a80f2275\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Some companies in offline businesses have been selling off their shares aggressively amid Covid concerns. But Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley, takes the opposite view. He thinks this is a good time to bargain-hunting.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Slimmon told his clients the need to prepare for the upcoming economic recovery:</p><p>Every year there are all kinds of economic problems that will eventually be ridden with. Going forward, people will become more optimistic. That bodes well for stocks sold off as a result of the Covid resurgence. Rates could bottom out in the coming months and recover in the fourth quarter. Slimmon believes that trading opportunities are focused on stocks that have fallen the most over the past period, namely cyclical stocks, energy stocks, stocks that have resumed trading.</p><p>With that in mind, Slimmon is looking at stocks that are down 20% or even 30% from their all-time peak earlier this year, and he has bought big stakes in casinos, cruise ships, restaurants and theater companies, as well as retail REITs.</p><p>This view runs counter to recent market sentiment, with most investors preferring defensive investment strategies. Additionally, growth stocks, such as tech stocks that outperformed broader market indexes during Covid, have outperformed lower-value peers for 3 months, while small-cap stocks have fallen about 60% from their all-time highs in mid-March.</p><p>However, he also noted that the market is forward-looking and investors should not continue to chase stocks such as tech stocks that are near record highs. \" I am optimistic that COVID will soon pass and investors should start buying these stocks in August instead of waiting until October, \"Slimmon said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Optimists: The Peak of the Pandemic in the United States is Approaching, and it is Bargain-hunting to Restart Trading Opportunities</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Optimists: The Peak of the Pandemic in the United States is Approaching, and it is Bargain-hunting to Restart Trading Opportunities\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-24 14:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets, believes that the new wave of the pandemic will be effectively contained in the fourth quarter, and investors should start buying stocks that had previously fallen sharply in August instead of waiting until October. US optimists believe the number of new cases in other parts of the country will also be effectively contained in the near future as case numbers decline in areas of the initial Delta variant outbreak in the United States.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>Statistics show that the United States faced a new wave of outbreak at the end of June, and in recent days, the average daily number of new cases in the United States has approached 150,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7a7969baf4d258fded3fd6a80f2275\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Some companies in offline businesses have been selling off their shares aggressively amid Covid concerns. But Andrew Slimmon, who manages about $7.5 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley, takes the opposite view. He thinks this is a good time to bargain-hunting.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Slimmon told his clients the need to prepare for the upcoming economic recovery:</p><p>Every year there are all kinds of economic problems that will eventually be ridden with. Going forward, people will become more optimistic. That bodes well for stocks sold off as a result of the Covid resurgence. Rates could bottom out in the coming months and recover in the fourth quarter. Slimmon believes that trading opportunities are focused on stocks that have fallen the most over the past period, namely cyclical stocks, energy stocks, stocks that have resumed trading.</p><p>With that in mind, Slimmon is looking at stocks that are down 20% or even 30% from their all-time peak earlier this year, and he has bought big stakes in casinos, cruise ships, restaurants and theater companies, as well as retail REITs.</p><p>This view runs counter to recent market sentiment, with most investors preferring defensive investment strategies. Additionally, growth stocks, such as tech stocks that outperformed broader market indexes during Covid, have outperformed lower-value peers for 3 months, while small-cap stocks have fallen about 60% from their all-time highs in mid-March.</p><p>However, he also noted that the market is forward-looking and investors should not continue to chase stocks such as tech stocks that are near record highs. \" I am optimistic that COVID will soon pass and investors should start buying these stocks in August instead of waiting until October, \"Slimmon said.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140946559","content_text":"在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。\n\n美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初的Delta变异株爆发地区的病例数下降，该国其他地区的新增病例数也将在不久后得到有效控制。\n据纽约时报统计数据，6月底美国面临了新一轮疫情的爆发，而近日以来，美国的平均每日新增病例数已接近15万例。\n\n出于对新冠疫情的担忧，一些线下业务公司的股票遭到大举抛售。然而在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon却持相反的意见，他认为此时正是抄底的好时候。\n据彭博，Slimmon向他的客户表示，需要为即将到来的经济复苏做好准备：\n\n 每年都会出现各式各样的经济问题，最终都会安然度过。展望未来，人们会变得更加乐观。对于因新冠疫情卷土重来而遭抛售的股票来说，这是个好兆头。利率可能在未来几个月触底，并在第四季度恢复。\n\nSlimmon认为，交易机会集中在过去一段时间以来跌幅最大的股票上，即周期性股票、能源股票、重新复牌的股票。\n基于上述观点，Slimmon关注的是较今年早些时候的历史峰值下跌了20%甚至30%的股票，他大笔购入了赌场、游轮、餐厅和剧院公司的股份，以及零售房地产投资信托基金。\n这一看法与近期的市场情绪背道而驰，大部分的投资者偏爱防守型投资策略。此外，成长股（例如在新冠疫情期间表现优于大盘指数的科技股）已经连续3个月跑赢了价值较低的同类股票，而小盘股已从3月中旬的历史高位下跌了约60%。\n不过他也指出，市场具有前瞻性，投资者不应继续追逐科技股等接近创纪录高位的股票。”我很乐观，新冠疫情很快将会过去，投资者应该在8月就开始买入这些股票，而不是等到10月”，Slimmon称。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835240012,"gmtCreate":1629723743636,"gmtModify":1676530111553,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835240012","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>Ricaz, the author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a brand-new front of currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers haven't noticed it is that the situation has not evolved to the point where all parties involved have blatantly manipulated monetary policy without restraint, and that day is not far away, perhaps early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, initially as a lawyer. During the Asian financial turmoil, he happened to be the legal counsel of the hedge fund Long-Term Asset Management Company, and participated in the promotion of the Fed-led rescue operation, which avoided major damage to the American financial system. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare adviser to the Pentagon.</p><p>But Mr Rickards is best known to investors as the author of financial bestselling books, with Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012, particularly widespread. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally made people dare not take it lightly. In his latest article, Rickards explains his views on the subject, which is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strength of the US dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, the US Treasury Department will probably weaken the US dollar, and the curtain of currency war will open.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is, since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then-US President Barack Obama began to weaken the dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury knew well that a weaker dollar would inevitably hurt growth prospects in Europe and Japan, but they clearly didn't care at all. Of course, this thinking is objectively justified. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the U.S. economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world will be immune to it.</p><p>In the wake of the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure a sustained recovery and avoid a new recession. It is Europe that is down on luck this time, and the United States and the rest of the world's economies have not suffered much.</p><p><b>Currency War Temporary Truce</b></p><p>Americans' policies have worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that roughly at the same time, the price of gold rushed to an all-time high and the exchange rate of the euro soared. Needless to say, the U.S. economy has received much-needed support.</p><p>It was only after that that the US began to unleash goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was reduced to $1.05 per euro. The judgment of Americans at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the decline of the euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and push the euro zone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar crossover has largely oscillated in a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, which is almost exactly the same as today four years later.</p><p>Here, the first thing we must understand is that the so-called currency war does not necessarily only involve the two or all parties going shirtless, causing the cross exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation to be extreme. Currency wars also have relatively quiet cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing their currencies relative to major trading partners-in other words, war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar as part of its own economic rescue plan in the near future, there will be a first wave of strength in the short term. Why is this?</p><p><b>A faltering recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the problem is, first and foremost, that the White House and the U.S. Treasury don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, U.S. GDP growth of 6.5 percent in the second quarter was slower than widely expected, but the real economy is even worse than the figures suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, whose reading was still 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% by June, while the real economic growth rate in the second quarter, as we all know, was 6.5%. This means that growth prospects have been significantly weakened in just three months in the second quarter. It also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also quite worrying. Imports, for example, are booming because Americans are loosing up government stimulus checks.</p><p>On the export side, however, the story is completely different, which shows that many other economies in the world are not doing as well as the United States. In the simplest and most straightforward terms, many of these other economies are in such bad shape that they simply have no appetite for eating much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. Private-sector revenue growth was essentially zero for up to eight months from October 2020. Just seeing this is terrible, and thinking that the government subsidies that support personal incomes are expiring one after another makes one more pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p>The countdown to the disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered. The order barring homeowners from evicting tenants is also dozens of days away, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans have expired. All in all, there is no possibility of a new plan to distribute cheques on a large scale in the short term.</p><p>Now that the tide of government cash distributions is in its final stages, while personal incomes are stagnating and exports are suffering a decline, what else can we expect to continue growing U.S. gross domestic product in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November of this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is really doing. In addition, by then, they will probably have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several months.</p><p>The trouble is that it is bound to be too late to find a way to stop the sharp downturn. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic side and the White House will be in utter panic, and by then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, before that, why did the dollar show strength?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. A crisis like this certainly cannot happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how dire the status quo has really become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>-Many governments are reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation shows how serious their problems have been.</p><p>-Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and big financial institutions expect that the interest rate trend in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that the financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy will have a high probability of recession in the long term.</p><p>— — Since March, the yield of the ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investors because of fear, and everyone expects that future economic growth will slow down, alleviate inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to predict exactly when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors are bound to desperately pursue safety, and the dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Ricaz, the author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a brand-new front of currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers haven't noticed it is that the situation has not evolved to the point where all parties involved have blatantly manipulated monetary policy without restraint, and that day is not far away, perhaps early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, initially as a lawyer. During the Asian financial turmoil, he happened to be the legal counsel of the hedge fund Long-Term Asset Management Company, and participated in the promotion of the Fed-led rescue operation, which avoided major damage to the American financial system. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare adviser to the Pentagon.</p><p>But Mr Rickards is best known to investors as the author of financial bestselling books, with Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012, particularly widespread. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally made people dare not take it lightly. In his latest article, Rickards explains his views on the subject, which is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strength of the US dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, the US Treasury Department will probably weaken the US dollar, and the curtain of currency war will open.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is, since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then-US President Barack Obama began to weaken the dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury knew well that a weaker dollar would inevitably hurt growth prospects in Europe and Japan, but they clearly didn't care at all. Of course, this thinking is objectively justified. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the U.S. economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world will be immune to it.</p><p>In the wake of the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure a sustained recovery and avoid a new recession. It is Europe that is down on luck this time, and the United States and the rest of the world's economies have not suffered much.</p><p><b>Currency War Temporary Truce</b></p><p>Americans' policies have worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that roughly at the same time, the price of gold rushed to an all-time high and the exchange rate of the euro soared. Needless to say, the U.S. economy has received much-needed support.</p><p>It was only after that that the US began to unleash goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was reduced to $1.05 per euro. The judgment of Americans at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the decline of the euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and push the euro zone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar crossover has largely oscillated in a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, which is almost exactly the same as today four years later.</p><p>Here, the first thing we must understand is that the so-called currency war does not necessarily only involve the two or all parties going shirtless, causing the cross exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation to be extreme. Currency wars also have relatively quiet cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing their currencies relative to major trading partners-in other words, war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar as part of its own economic rescue plan in the near future, there will be a first wave of strength in the short term. Why is this?</p><p><b>A faltering recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the problem is, first and foremost, that the White House and the U.S. Treasury don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, U.S. GDP growth of 6.5 percent in the second quarter was slower than widely expected, but the real economy is even worse than the figures suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, whose reading was still 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% by June, while the real economic growth rate in the second quarter, as we all know, was 6.5%. This means that growth prospects have been significantly weakened in just three months in the second quarter. It also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also quite worrying. Imports, for example, are booming because Americans are loosing up government stimulus checks.</p><p>On the export side, however, the story is completely different, which shows that many other economies in the world are not doing as well as the United States. In the simplest and most straightforward terms, many of these other economies are in such bad shape that they simply have no appetite for eating much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. Private-sector revenue growth was essentially zero for up to eight months from October 2020. Just seeing this is terrible, and thinking that the government subsidies that support personal incomes are expiring one after another makes one more pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p>The countdown to the disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered. The order barring homeowners from evicting tenants is also dozens of days away, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans have expired. All in all, there is no possibility of a new plan to distribute cheques on a large scale in the short term.</p><p>Now that the tide of government cash distributions is in its final stages, while personal incomes are stagnating and exports are suffering a decline, what else can we expect to continue growing U.S. gross domestic product in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November of this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is really doing. In addition, by then, they will probably have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several months.</p><p>The trouble is that it is bound to be too late to find a way to stop the sharp downturn. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic side and the White House will be in utter panic, and by then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, before that, why did the dollar show strength?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. A crisis like this certainly cannot happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how dire the status quo has really become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>-Many governments are reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation shows how serious their problems have been.</p><p>-Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and big financial institutions expect that the interest rate trend in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that the financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy will have a high probability of recession in the long term.</p><p>— — Since March, the yield of the ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investors because of fear, and everyone expects that future economic growth will slow down, alleviate inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to predict exactly when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors are bound to desperately pursue safety, and the dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835257533,"gmtCreate":1629723694922,"gmtModify":1676530111545,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835257533","repostId":"1145459282","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832049713,"gmtCreate":1629548892632,"gmtModify":1676530069184,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"555","listText":"555","text":"555","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832049713","repostId":"2161422746","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836973670,"gmtCreate":1629450537690,"gmtModify":1676530045407,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836973670","repostId":"2160071811","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831981160,"gmtCreate":1629279719750,"gmtModify":1676529989266,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg&nbsp;","listText":"Omg&nbsp;","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831981160","repostId":"1147839184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147839184","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1629262210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147839184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 12:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks That Markets Still Are Unpriced","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147839184","media":"Wind万得","summary":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，","content":"<p>Overnight, the United States released retail data, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey released a report saying that overnight data does not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales in May and June were upwardly revised, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a more than expected decline. Notably, the decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and shutdowns that were seen earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that U.S. consumers are choosing to stay home and spend less — in line with last week's sharp decline in the UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. In addition, surveys of individual categories showed the biggest slowdowns in consumer discretionary goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-physical retail stores, perhaps also reflecting the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer Leaders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Earnings released yesterday showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production rose in July, driven mainly by an 11.2% increase in automotive and parts manufacturing, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined, driven by current sales and expected sales components, reaching its lowest level since July 2020, although future sales expectations remained unchanged.</p><p>Taken together, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote, \"July's lower-than-expected retail sales and automotive production, coupled with the increasing likelihood that Delta virus mutation will drag down service consumption, will likely allow our economists to revise their assumptions for growth in the second half, although we still expect no material economic impact from the Delta variant on the U.S. against the backdrop of ample vaccine supplies and relatively accommodative COVID policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Commenting on the retail data, Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Bank of America, stressed that although she expects retail sales to rise slightly in August, there are \"still downside risks\". Spending at non-store retailers should rebound, but spending on services will weaken – with travel spending falling back significantly, which appears to be in line with an increase in Covid cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers raised concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and high prices, \"a point we've been highlighting for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also pointed out: \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending allowed us to track real consumption spending growth of only 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting this data into the GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy slowed in the third quarter\", and the economic growth is now expected to be only 4.5% after the retail sales report, which is lower than the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth, said: \"The Delta variant has hit the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to focus on its ripple effects on the economy.\" \"This is going to be a long-term issue that will lead to some volatility in the market.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks That Markets Still Are Unpriced</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe inflection point is approaching? BofA, Goldman Sachs See Risks That Markets Still Are Unpriced\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 12:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Overnight, the United States released retail data, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey released a report saying that overnight data does not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales in May and June were upwardly revised, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a more than expected decline. Notably, the decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and shutdowns that were seen earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that U.S. consumers are choosing to stay home and spend less — in line with last week's sharp decline in the UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. In addition, surveys of individual categories showed the biggest slowdowns in consumer discretionary goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-physical retail stores, perhaps also reflecting the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer Leaders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Earnings released yesterday showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production rose in July, driven mainly by an 11.2% increase in automotive and parts manufacturing, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined, driven by current sales and expected sales components, reaching its lowest level since July 2020, although future sales expectations remained unchanged.</p><p>Taken together, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote, \"July's lower-than-expected retail sales and automotive production, coupled with the increasing likelihood that Delta virus mutation will drag down service consumption, will likely allow our economists to revise their assumptions for growth in the second half, although we still expect no material economic impact from the Delta variant on the U.S. against the backdrop of ample vaccine supplies and relatively accommodative COVID policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Commenting on the retail data, Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Bank of America, stressed that although she expects retail sales to rise slightly in August, there are \"still downside risks\". Spending at non-store retailers should rebound, but spending on services will weaken – with travel spending falling back significantly, which appears to be in line with an increase in Covid cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers raised concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and high prices, \"a point we've been highlighting for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also pointed out: \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending allowed us to track real consumption spending growth of only 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting this data into the GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy slowed in the third quarter\", and the economic growth is now expected to be only 4.5% after the retail sales report, which is lower than the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth, said: \"The Delta variant has hit the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to focus on its ripple effects on the economy.\" \"This is going to be a long-term issue that will lead to some volatility in the market.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147839184","content_text":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，但7月份美国零售销售下降了1.1%，降幅超过预期。值得注意的是，这种下降没有伴随疫情早期出现过的出行限制和关闭措施，这表明美国消费者选择呆在家里，减少支出——这与上周密歇根消费者信心调查(UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey)的大幅下降一致。此外，对个别类别的调查显示，非必需消费品(如电子产品和电器)以及非实体零售店的增速放缓幅度最大，这或许也反映出一些失业救济即将到期。消费者领头羊沃尔玛和家得宝昨日公布的财报显示，消费者行为正在放缓。\n在供应方面，7月份工业生产增长，主要受汽车和零部件制造业增长11.2%的推动，同时企业库存也有所增加。受当前销售和预期销售成分的推动，建筑商信心也下降，达到2020年7月以来的最低水平，尽管未来销售预期保持不变。\n综上所述，高盛策略师写道，“7月份低于预期的零售销售和汽车产量，加上Delta病毒变异越来越可能拖累服务消费，我们的经济学家可能会修改对下半年增长的假设，尽管我们仍然预计，在疫苗供应充足和相对宽松的新冠政策的背景下，Delta变种不会对美国产生实质性的经济影响。”\n不仅是高盛，但美国银行的说法更糟：美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔•迈耶(Michelle Meyer)在对零售数据发表评论时强调，尽管她预计8月份零售额会出现小幅增长，但“仍存在下行风险”。非商店零售商的支出应该会反弹，但服务支出将会减弱——旅行支出明显回落，这似乎与新冠病例的增加相一致。与此类似，密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者信心调查在8月初大幅下降，因为消费者对新冠肺炎病例增加和价格高企表示担忧，“我们几个月来一直在强调这一点。”\n迈耶还指出：“在对更高的价格进行调整后，名义支出的疲软使我们在第三季度追踪到的实际消费支出仅增长1.5%，第二季度的实际消费增长12.3%。”将该数据放到GDP的预测模型里，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，目前在零售销售报告发布后经济增速预期仅为 4.5%，低于该银行官方预测的7%。\n\nCIBC Private Wealth 的首席投资官 David Donabedian 表示：“Delta 变体已经打击了普通美国人的信心，因此我们需要关注它对经济的连锁反应。” “这将是一个长期问题，将会导致市场出现一些波动。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839057313,"gmtCreate":1629110261732,"gmtModify":1676529933269,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"omg","listText":"omg","text":"omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839057313","repostId":"2159241181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830939392,"gmtCreate":1628998688116,"gmtModify":1676529907596,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830939392","repostId":"1168954704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897580564,"gmtCreate":1628942238258,"gmtModify":1676529897402,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897580564","repostId":"1121247469","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894786105,"gmtCreate":1628857486107,"gmtModify":1676529876355,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894786105","repostId":"1138393223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138393223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628833966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138393223?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138393223","media":"美港电讯","summary":"摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。","content":"<p>On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed red across the board. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, and the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, Marko Kolanovic, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, stressed that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He thinks,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor holdings, signs of receding Delta and normalizing bond-equity correlations</b>We still have reservations about the risk of recent market correction. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and are cautious about stocks that benefit from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the position distribution of investors</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions are currently soaring, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds for now, although both major banking institutional brokerages show record levels of total hedge fund exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Setting aside the facts, while Kolanovic expects the level of positions to continue to rise, he said the current position is still near average compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows equity betas (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment vehicles relative to the whole market, separating the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>It has to be admitted that the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan pointed to a more important point that these metrics are close to historical averages — at about 50%, while most revisions historically have occurred when these metrics were above about 80%. Sometimes, though, even if these metrics linger at 100% for as long as a year, the stock market does not suffer a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the Risk of Soaring U.S. Treasury Yields</b></p><p>So what is a risk if an investor's position does not pose a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields could rise sharply (or in relation to tapering, inflation, etc).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the price of a 10-year bond and the beta coefficient of different equity sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose 1% on average, tech stocks rose 4%, and financials fell 3%. This correlation waned somewhat after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typically negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>In the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (e.g., technology, discretionary assets, communications) pushed the beta index of bond stocks in the S&P 500 to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich sees such a small risk, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that such an event occurs on the condition that stocks and 10-year U.S. bonds suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened, and the recent performance of both the stock and bond markets is very good (the rise of cyclical stocks, the bright results of growth stocks and the rebound of U.S. bond yields), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold is extremely low.\" Kolanovic noted that investors can hedge their risk by holding bonds and stocks for less time, which will likely trigger investors to move away from growth stocks to value stocks to some extent, thus adding to the low risk of widespread stock market selling.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta</b></p><p>Now that the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what other factors can cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor holding back the strength of risky assets in the past few months was the spread of the Delta strain, not the peak of economic growth or the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic strongly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should be reassured that the Delta death rate is low in vaccinated countries, and it is very likely that this will be the last wave of Covid.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of people who can infect patients who start to show symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other Potential Risks</b></p><p>Well, positions are on average, taper risks are under control, and the Delta pandemic is receding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the sub-risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that have benefited from COVID, such as renewables and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovic believes it won't be enough to destroy the market either.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic expects that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relations of the United States with Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market each month, bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港电讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed red across the board. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, and the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, Marko Kolanovic, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, stressed that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He thinks,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor holdings, signs of receding Delta and normalizing bond-equity correlations</b>We still have reservations about the risk of recent market correction. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and are cautious about stocks that benefit from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the position distribution of investors</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions are currently soaring, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds for now, although both major banking institutional brokerages show record levels of total hedge fund exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Setting aside the facts, while Kolanovic expects the level of positions to continue to rise, he said the current position is still near average compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows equity betas (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment vehicles relative to the whole market, separating the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>It has to be admitted that the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan pointed to a more important point that these metrics are close to historical averages — at about 50%, while most revisions historically have occurred when these metrics were above about 80%. Sometimes, though, even if these metrics linger at 100% for as long as a year, the stock market does not suffer a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the Risk of Soaring U.S. Treasury Yields</b></p><p>So what is a risk if an investor's position does not pose a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields could rise sharply (or in relation to tapering, inflation, etc).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the price of a 10-year bond and the beta coefficient of different equity sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose 1% on average, tech stocks rose 4%, and financials fell 3%. This correlation waned somewhat after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typically negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>In the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (e.g., technology, discretionary assets, communications) pushed the beta index of bond stocks in the S&P 500 to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich sees such a small risk, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that such an event occurs on the condition that stocks and 10-year U.S. bonds suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened, and the recent performance of both the stock and bond markets is very good (the rise of cyclical stocks, the bright results of growth stocks and the rebound of U.S. bond yields), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold is extremely low.\" Kolanovic noted that investors can hedge their risk by holding bonds and stocks for less time, which will likely trigger investors to move away from growth stocks to value stocks to some extent, thus adding to the low risk of widespread stock market selling.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta</b></p><p>Now that the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what other factors can cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor holding back the strength of risky assets in the past few months was the spread of the Delta strain, not the peak of economic growth or the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic strongly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should be reassured that the Delta death rate is low in vaccinated countries, and it is very likely that this will be the last wave of Covid.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of people who can infect patients who start to show symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other Potential Risks</b></p><p>Well, positions are on average, taper risks are under control, and the Delta pandemic is receding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the sub-risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that have benefited from COVID, such as renewables and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovic believes it won't be enough to destroy the market either.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic expects that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relations of the United States with Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market each month, bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733\">美港电讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138393223","content_text":"周四美股三大股指收盘全线飘红。道指和标普500指数盘中双双再创新高。医药、软件板块表现强势，新能源相关板块连续第二日回落。\n对此，摩根大通分析师马克•科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）强调，市场夸大了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，价值股将大幅上涨，超过成长股。他认为，美债收益率和周期股可能已经在上周触底，今年剩余时间料将打开上行空间。\n科拉诺维奇表示：\n\n “鉴于\n 强劲的财报季、投资者谨慎的持仓、德尔塔病毒消退的迹象以及债券-股票相关性正常化，我们对近期市场回调风险仍持保留意见。我们尤其看好周期性和通货再膨胀相关的市场板块，并对受益于疫情和低债券收益率的股票持谨慎态度。”\n\n从投资者的仓位分布来看\n科拉诺维奇一如既往地认为，不管仓位目前飙升到多高，平均情况才是最好的参考指标。而且，尽管两家主要银行机构经纪公司均显示对冲基金的总敞口达到创纪录水平，但散户投资者目前显然还是将“所有资金”投入对冲基金。\n\n抛开事实不谈，虽然科拉诺维奇预估仓位水平将持续上升，但他表示，目前的仓位与10年历史相比，仍处在平均水平附近。图1显示了广义对冲基金、股票多/空对冲基金和以波动率为目标的基金（如保险公司、风险平价等）的股票贝塔系数（以百分位数表示）。\n贝塔系数用来量化个别投资工具相对整个市场的波动，将个别风险引起的价格变化和整个市场波动分离开来。\n\n不得不承认的是，今年这些基金增加的敞口肯定对股市有所帮助。然而，摩根大通指出了更重要的一点，这些指标接近历史平均水平——约50%处，而历史上大多数修正发生在这些指标高于80%左右的时候。不过，有时即使这些指标在100%逗留了长达一年的时间，股市也没有遭遇显著的修正。\n这是因为，在这个市场上，广泛的投资者仓位完全无关紧要，只有美联储的政策走向至关重要。\n从美债收益率飙升的风险来看\n那么，如果投资者的仓位不构成风险，什么才是风险呢？按照科拉诺维奇的说法，下一个风险因素是收益率可能急剧上升（或与缩减购债规模、通胀等相关）。下图展示了10年期债券价格与不同股票板块的贝塔系数之间的相关性。\n\n科拉诺维奇写道，在7月份，科技板块的债券贝塔值为+4，而金融板块的贝塔值为-3。换句话说，10年期债券价格平均上涨1%，科技股上涨4%，金融股下跌3%。财报发布后，这种相关性有所减弱，现在所有股票板块都与债券价格呈现典型的负相关性。\n在过去一个月里，纳斯达克板块（如科技、非必需资产、通讯）走弱推动标普500指数债券类股的贝塔指数从第二季度的负区域升至约1。\n这里明显的风险是，在债券抛售期间这种相关性的迅速逆转，可能导致债券和股票双双遭到抛售。这在2018年2月和10月就曾发生过。\n科拉诺维奇认为这样的风险很小，他写道：\n\n “考虑到当前的仓位水平、波动性和其他因素，我们估计，这样的事件发生的条件是：股票和10年期美债在1天内遭受约3%的抛售。但鉴于两者间的相关性已经减弱，且近期股市和债市的表现都很不错（周期性股票抬头、成长型股票财报成绩亮眼以及美债收益率回升），因此债券和股票双双遭到抛售的概率极低。”\n\n科拉诺维奇指出，投资者可以通过减少持有债券和股票的时间来对冲风险，这可能在一定程度上将触发投资者从成长型股票转向价值股，因此更加说明了股市大范围抛售风险不大。\n从德尔塔病毒的风险来看\n既然仓位调整和收益率上升（或者说缩债）的风险能得到有效控制，还有什么因素会引发担忧呢？\n科拉诺维奇表示，过去几个月阻碍风险资产走强的主要因素是德尔塔毒株的传播，而非经济增长见顶或者美联储鹰派发言。科拉诺维奇坚信，尽管病例数量高企，“在接种了疫苗的国家中，德尔塔疫情的死亡率较低，投资者应该感到放心，而且这很有可能是最后一波新冠疫情。”\n\n科拉诺维奇补充道：\n\n “有强烈的迹象表明，美国正在开始逆转德尔塔疫情。一个重要信号是，美国50个州中有40个州的基本传染数（某时刻开始出现症状的患者平均能够感染的人数）正在下降。”\n\n其他潜在风险\n那么，仓位处于平均水平，缩减风险已得到控制，德尔塔疫情正在消退。市场还存在其他风险吗?\n答案是肯定的。在摩根大通量化分析师列出的次级风险中，包括在新冠疫情中受益的资产，如可再生能源和电动汽车、加密货币和创新股。\n虽然这些板块在年初经历了一次重大调整，但摩根大通相信还会有另一轮下跌。最终的调整水平可能由这些行业与同等传统行业之间的估值趋同决定。\n尽管这些“泡沫资产”可能会继续破裂，但科拉诺维奇认为，这也不足以摧毁市场。\n最后，科拉诺维奇预计，明年地缘政治风险将会进一步增加和放大，这些风险将涉及各种相互依存的问题，如美国与俄罗斯、伊朗的地缘政治关系、围绕能源安全的问题，通货膨胀，以及美国自身的政治发展。但只要美联储继续每月向市场注入数十亿美元的流动性，看涨的预期就不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895476976,"gmtCreate":1628770239095,"gmtModify":1676529848211,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895476976","repostId":"2158232300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896741271,"gmtCreate":1628607239093,"gmtModify":1676529796343,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896741271","repostId":"2158420658","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898580576,"gmtCreate":1628510321395,"gmtModify":1703507281618,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/898580576","repostId":"1140257089","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140257089","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1628471023,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140257089?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-09 09:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Stock God Buffett turned in his homework! This investment is the highlight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140257089","media":"券商中国","summary":"“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司8月7日发布2021年第二季度财报。\n财报发布之际，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股票已抹去了2020年的所有下跌，并创下历史新高。该公司的B类股8月上涨了2.7%，今年","content":"<p>\"Stock God\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>· Hathaway Inc. released its second quarter 2021 earnings on August 7.</p><p>The earnings came as Berkshire Hathaway stock has erased all of its 2020 losses and hit an all-time high. The company's Class B shares rose 2.7% in August, and have accumulated more than 23% gains this year.</p><p>Among them, the after-tax income of railway business increased by 34% in the second quarter, becoming the biggest bright spot. The largest investment in Buffett's history — the $44 billion acquisition of BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) in 2009 — is now estimated at more than $160 billion.</p><p>Clearly, as fiscal stimulus in the United States continues to ramp up, more goods and goods are being shipped across the United States, and economic activity continues to recover from the pandemic, with railroads benefiting significantly. However, in the insurance underwriting business, operating profit was only $376 million, down 53.3% year-on-year. This shows that Berkshire Hathaway's financial business revenue has continued to decline in the past few years.</p><p>At present, Berkshire Hathaway still holds $144.1 billion in cash (about RMB 934.1 billion), little change from the record high of $146.6 billion in the same period last year. In terms of positions, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio has barely changed, and without a suitable \"elephant\" target, Buffett has launched more Berkshire stock buyback programs. Berkshire Hathaway had about $6 billion to buy back shares in the second quarter, bringing the six-month total to $12.6 billion. Since the end of 2019, the total repurchase amount has exceeded US$37 billion (approximately RMB 240 billion).</p><p><b>Net income rose 6.8% in the second quarter</b></p><p>On August 7th, Buffett's second-quarter report card was released, and Berkshire Hathaway announced its second-quarter financial report for 2021. According to the financial report, the company's total revenue in the second quarter was USD 69.114 billion, an increase of 22% from USD 56.840 billion in the same period last year; Net profit attributable to parent companies was US$28.094 billion (approximately RMB180 billion), representing an increase of 6.8% from US$26.295 billion in the same period of 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40af2a62b8d2ae5055e3492adca5fca9\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares earned $18,488 per share, compared to $16,314 a year earlier; Class B shares earned $12.33 per share, compared to $10.88 in the year-ago quarter.</b></p><p>According to the financial report, the company's operating profit was USD 6.686 billion, compared with USD 5.513 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; Profit from investments and derivatives was $21.408 billion, compared to $31.645 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dbc90ec531523f55870e1a7b0e72e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>According to the data disclosed by Berkshire Hathaway, the real top ten heavy-duty projects are as follows (five of them are unlisted, ranked according to the proportion of positions):</p><p>No. 1: 25%, BNSF Railway (unlisted)</p><p>No. 2: 19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL (listed)</p><p>No. 3: 10%, Berkshire Energy (BHE, unlisted)</p><p>No. 4: 7%, GEICO (unlisted)</p><p>5th place: 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC, listed)</p><p>No. 6: 3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>(KO, listed)</p><p>No. 7: 3.5%, Precision Parts (PCP, not listed)</p><p>No. 8: 2.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP, listed)</p><p>No. 9: 1.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KHC\">Kraft Heinz</a>(KHC, listed)</p><p>No. 10: 1.6%, Lubrizol (LZ, unlisted)</p><p>Railway business became the biggest bright spot, growing 34% in the second quarter</p><p>In terms of specific business areas, Berkshire Hathaway's divisions with the largest year-on-year growth were railroads, utilities and energy divisions, respectively, with operating income increasing from $1.76 billion a year ago to $2.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. In particular, after-tax earnings from the rail business rose 34% in the second quarter, reflecting higher overall freight volumes and lower operating costs.</p><p>Berkshire Hathaway's railway business became the largest shareholder with a 22.6% stake in BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) since 2007. Then, at the end of 2009, when the U.S. economy was in recession and BNSF's performance was declining, Buffett gambled heavily on the future of the U.S. economy and took a move to acquire and privatize BNSF Railways. On November 3 of that year, Buffett spent $26.5 billion and a total of $44 billion in conversion rights to privatize BNSF. The move is also the largest investment in Buffett's history. At that time, the acquisition negotiation only took 20 minutes.</p><p>\"I believe the country is going to get better, and I think in the next 10 to 30 years, more people will use this rail to transport more goods. But this is always a bet on the country's prospects,\" Buffett said. BNSF operates North America's largest rail transportation network, mostly transporting coal, industrial goods and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural Products</a>。 The company has an operating network of 51,500 kilometers and 6,700 locomotives in 28 states and 2 Canadian provinces, with access to all major ports on the west coast of North America and the Gulf of Mexico, direct connections to most major cities in the western 2/3 of the United States, and the industry's premier railway line between Southern California and Chicago, as well as the Northwest<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The shortest main line between the area and Chicago.</p><p>BNSF carries more than 5 million containers and trailers annually, making it the world's largest rail intermodal carrier. Among the four largest freight companies in the country, BNSF ranks first in terms of freight revenue. Its revenue is made up of 35% consumer goods, 27% industrial goods, 21% agricultural products and 17% coal.</p><p>In fact, after BNSF was privatized by Berkshire Hathaway, it subsequently became the highlight of the company's financial report, contributing more than $3 billion in Dividend to the parent company every year. It is estimated that Berkshire Hathaway's railway business accounts for a quarter of the company's valuation, and BNSF Railway should have appreciated more than four times since its acquisition in November 2009. Unexpectedly, the stock god has a soft spot for railway stocks, which actually accounts for a quarter of the position.</p><p>In May 2019, at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that BNSF is a good asset for us and will continue this business for 100 years. It is considered that the overall railway business is competitive with other companies. From the second half of last year to the first half of this year, driven by the fiscal stimulus effect of the United States, American imports soared. American railway stations, ports and warehouses were already crowded with goods, and American railway freight rates increased by 15% year-on-year.</p><p>Similarly, in terms of utilities, Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company (BHE), a wind power and natural gas company, is one of the largest power suppliers in the world. BHE is mainly engaged in the construction and maintenance of power generation, transmission, distribution and sales, gas transmission network and power grid engineering. At the same time, it vigorously develops new energy sources and has built two largest power suppliers in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>Power generation projects.</p><p>BHE, which Berkshire took private after acquiring 85% of BHE in 2000 for $1.7 billion, now owns approximately 91% of BHE and contributes approximately 10% of Berkshire's earnings each year. Abel, the successor of the stock god, has been at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company (BHE) for a long time. Currently valued at more than $50 billion, BHE had revenue of approximately $20.9 billion in 2020.</p><p>In 2021, in a letter to investors, Buffett said that BHE (Berkshire Hathaway Energy) will rebuild and expand a large portion of the transmission power grid covering the entire West, which is expected to be completed by 2030, when BHE will become a leader in providing cleaner energy.</p><p><b>Insurance underwriting operating profit has shrunk by more than half, and net profit has shrunk for four consecutive years</b></p><p>According to Berkshire Hathaway's earnings report, the insurance business has declined significantly. According to the data, in terms of insurance and other businesses, premium revenue was USD 17.163 billion, sales and service revenue was USD 36.743 billion, leasing revenue was USD 1.447 billion, and interest, Dividend and other investment revenue was USD 1.898 billion. The operating profit of insurance underwriting business was US$376 million, down 53.3% year-on-year; The operating profit of the insurance investment income business was US$1.219 billion, down 10.9% year-on-year.</p><p>With the announcement of the first half of this year, the market expects Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business to continue to decline in 2021. The data shows that Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business profit has continued to decline in the past five years. It was approximately $750 million in 2020, $800 million in 2019 and $1.3 billion in 2018.</p><p>In fact, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the largest insurance companies in the world. Buffett first acquired National Insurance Company (NICO) and National Fire and Marine Insurance Company in 1967, privatized Geike Insurance in 1996, and acquired General Reinsurance for $22 billion in 1998. The cumulative premium income increased by 1,472 times, with a compound annual growth of 16%. At present, Berkshire has become one of the largest insurance companies in the world. After continuous acquisition and integration, there are currently three major insurance operating entities, namely GEICO, Berkshire Reinsurance (BHRG) and BH Primary, which are involved in auto insurance, reinsurance and special insurance businesses respectively, with a total of 27 insurance subsidiaries.</p><p>According to the relevant data on U.S. insurance in 2020 released by the American Association of Insurance Supervisors in March this year. In 2020, the underwritten premiums of the U.S. P&C business totaled approximately $719.7 billion. At the corporate level, State Farm, Berkshire Hathaway, Progressive,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFG.AU\">Liberty</a>Mutual and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALL\">Allstate</a>Ranked 1~5 in the total premium income of P&C insurance in 2020. Among them, State Farm realized $66.2 billion in premiums, accounting for approximately 9.19% of the market share; Berkshire Hathaway's premiums are $46.1 billion, and its market share is approximately 6.39%.</p><p><b>With $144 billion in cash in hand, stock positions remain unmoved</b></p><p>At present, Berkshire Hathaway still holds $144.1 billion in cash (cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments), which is stable compared to the previous quarter. 145.4 billion at the end of the first quarter. And in August 2020, when cash reserves stood at $146.6 billion, a record high.</p><p>In terms of the amount itself, for more than a year, Berkshire Hathaway's cash flow remained stable and remained above $1,440. Driven by huge amounts of cash, Buffett is still actively moving when it comes to share buybacks. Berkshire Hathaway had about $6 billion to buy back shares in the second quarter, bringing the six-month total to $12.6 billion. A record $24.7 billion in company stock was repurchased last year. While the total repurchases since the end of 2019 have exceeded $37 billion.</p><p>In terms of holdings, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio is virtually unchanged, totaling nearly $300 billion. Notably, the company has cut more than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>More than 50% of the position to 23.7 million shares, and investment in Merck & Co. decreased by 37% to 17.9 million shares.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock God Buffett turned in his homework! This investment is the highlight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock God Buffett turned in his homework! This investment is the highlight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-09 09:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>\"Stock God\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>· Hathaway Inc. released its second quarter 2021 earnings on August 7.</p><p>The earnings came as Berkshire Hathaway stock has erased all of its 2020 losses and hit an all-time high. The company's Class B shares rose 2.7% in August, and have accumulated more than 23% gains this year.</p><p>Among them, the after-tax income of railway business increased by 34% in the second quarter, becoming the biggest bright spot. The largest investment in Buffett's history — the $44 billion acquisition of BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) in 2009 — is now estimated at more than $160 billion.</p><p>Clearly, as fiscal stimulus in the United States continues to ramp up, more goods and goods are being shipped across the United States, and economic activity continues to recover from the pandemic, with railroads benefiting significantly. However, in the insurance underwriting business, operating profit was only $376 million, down 53.3% year-on-year. This shows that Berkshire Hathaway's financial business revenue has continued to decline in the past few years.</p><p>At present, Berkshire Hathaway still holds $144.1 billion in cash (about RMB 934.1 billion), little change from the record high of $146.6 billion in the same period last year. In terms of positions, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio has barely changed, and without a suitable \"elephant\" target, Buffett has launched more Berkshire stock buyback programs. Berkshire Hathaway had about $6 billion to buy back shares in the second quarter, bringing the six-month total to $12.6 billion. Since the end of 2019, the total repurchase amount has exceeded US$37 billion (approximately RMB 240 billion).</p><p><b>Net income rose 6.8% in the second quarter</b></p><p>On August 7th, Buffett's second-quarter report card was released, and Berkshire Hathaway announced its second-quarter financial report for 2021. According to the financial report, the company's total revenue in the second quarter was USD 69.114 billion, an increase of 22% from USD 56.840 billion in the same period last year; Net profit attributable to parent companies was US$28.094 billion (approximately RMB180 billion), representing an increase of 6.8% from US$26.295 billion in the same period of 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40af2a62b8d2ae5055e3492adca5fca9\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares earned $18,488 per share, compared to $16,314 a year earlier; Class B shares earned $12.33 per share, compared to $10.88 in the year-ago quarter.</b></p><p>According to the financial report, the company's operating profit was USD 6.686 billion, compared with USD 5.513 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; Profit from investments and derivatives was $21.408 billion, compared to $31.645 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dbc90ec531523f55870e1a7b0e72e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>According to the data disclosed by Berkshire Hathaway, the real top ten heavy-duty projects are as follows (five of them are unlisted, ranked according to the proportion of positions):</p><p>No. 1: 25%, BNSF Railway (unlisted)</p><p>No. 2: 19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL (listed)</p><p>No. 3: 10%, Berkshire Energy (BHE, unlisted)</p><p>No. 4: 7%, GEICO (unlisted)</p><p>5th place: 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC, listed)</p><p>No. 6: 3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>(KO, listed)</p><p>No. 7: 3.5%, Precision Parts (PCP, not listed)</p><p>No. 8: 2.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP, listed)</p><p>No. 9: 1.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KHC\">Kraft Heinz</a>(KHC, listed)</p><p>No. 10: 1.6%, Lubrizol (LZ, unlisted)</p><p>Railway business became the biggest bright spot, growing 34% in the second quarter</p><p>In terms of specific business areas, Berkshire Hathaway's divisions with the largest year-on-year growth were railroads, utilities and energy divisions, respectively, with operating income increasing from $1.76 billion a year ago to $2.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. In particular, after-tax earnings from the rail business rose 34% in the second quarter, reflecting higher overall freight volumes and lower operating costs.</p><p>Berkshire Hathaway's railway business became the largest shareholder with a 22.6% stake in BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) since 2007. Then, at the end of 2009, when the U.S. economy was in recession and BNSF's performance was declining, Buffett gambled heavily on the future of the U.S. economy and took a move to acquire and privatize BNSF Railways. On November 3 of that year, Buffett spent $26.5 billion and a total of $44 billion in conversion rights to privatize BNSF. The move is also the largest investment in Buffett's history. At that time, the acquisition negotiation only took 20 minutes.</p><p>\"I believe the country is going to get better, and I think in the next 10 to 30 years, more people will use this rail to transport more goods. But this is always a bet on the country's prospects,\" Buffett said. BNSF operates North America's largest rail transportation network, mostly transporting coal, industrial goods and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural Products</a>。 The company has an operating network of 51,500 kilometers and 6,700 locomotives in 28 states and 2 Canadian provinces, with access to all major ports on the west coast of North America and the Gulf of Mexico, direct connections to most major cities in the western 2/3 of the United States, and the industry's premier railway line between Southern California and Chicago, as well as the Northwest<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The shortest main line between the area and Chicago.</p><p>BNSF carries more than 5 million containers and trailers annually, making it the world's largest rail intermodal carrier. Among the four largest freight companies in the country, BNSF ranks first in terms of freight revenue. Its revenue is made up of 35% consumer goods, 27% industrial goods, 21% agricultural products and 17% coal.</p><p>In fact, after BNSF was privatized by Berkshire Hathaway, it subsequently became the highlight of the company's financial report, contributing more than $3 billion in Dividend to the parent company every year. It is estimated that Berkshire Hathaway's railway business accounts for a quarter of the company's valuation, and BNSF Railway should have appreciated more than four times since its acquisition in November 2009. Unexpectedly, the stock god has a soft spot for railway stocks, which actually accounts for a quarter of the position.</p><p>In May 2019, at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that BNSF is a good asset for us and will continue this business for 100 years. It is considered that the overall railway business is competitive with other companies. From the second half of last year to the first half of this year, driven by the fiscal stimulus effect of the United States, American imports soared. American railway stations, ports and warehouses were already crowded with goods, and American railway freight rates increased by 15% year-on-year.</p><p>Similarly, in terms of utilities, Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company (BHE), a wind power and natural gas company, is one of the largest power suppliers in the world. BHE is mainly engaged in the construction and maintenance of power generation, transmission, distribution and sales, gas transmission network and power grid engineering. At the same time, it vigorously develops new energy sources and has built two largest power suppliers in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>Power generation projects.</p><p>BHE, which Berkshire took private after acquiring 85% of BHE in 2000 for $1.7 billion, now owns approximately 91% of BHE and contributes approximately 10% of Berkshire's earnings each year. Abel, the successor of the stock god, has been at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company (BHE) for a long time. Currently valued at more than $50 billion, BHE had revenue of approximately $20.9 billion in 2020.</p><p>In 2021, in a letter to investors, Buffett said that BHE (Berkshire Hathaway Energy) will rebuild and expand a large portion of the transmission power grid covering the entire West, which is expected to be completed by 2030, when BHE will become a leader in providing cleaner energy.</p><p><b>Insurance underwriting operating profit has shrunk by more than half, and net profit has shrunk for four consecutive years</b></p><p>According to Berkshire Hathaway's earnings report, the insurance business has declined significantly. According to the data, in terms of insurance and other businesses, premium revenue was USD 17.163 billion, sales and service revenue was USD 36.743 billion, leasing revenue was USD 1.447 billion, and interest, Dividend and other investment revenue was USD 1.898 billion. The operating profit of insurance underwriting business was US$376 million, down 53.3% year-on-year; The operating profit of the insurance investment income business was US$1.219 billion, down 10.9% year-on-year.</p><p>With the announcement of the first half of this year, the market expects Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business to continue to decline in 2021. The data shows that Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business profit has continued to decline in the past five years. It was approximately $750 million in 2020, $800 million in 2019 and $1.3 billion in 2018.</p><p>In fact, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the largest insurance companies in the world. Buffett first acquired National Insurance Company (NICO) and National Fire and Marine Insurance Company in 1967, privatized Geike Insurance in 1996, and acquired General Reinsurance for $22 billion in 1998. The cumulative premium income increased by 1,472 times, with a compound annual growth of 16%. At present, Berkshire has become one of the largest insurance companies in the world. After continuous acquisition and integration, there are currently three major insurance operating entities, namely GEICO, Berkshire Reinsurance (BHRG) and BH Primary, which are involved in auto insurance, reinsurance and special insurance businesses respectively, with a total of 27 insurance subsidiaries.</p><p>According to the relevant data on U.S. insurance in 2020 released by the American Association of Insurance Supervisors in March this year. In 2020, the underwritten premiums of the U.S. P&C business totaled approximately $719.7 billion. At the corporate level, State Farm, Berkshire Hathaway, Progressive,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFG.AU\">Liberty</a>Mutual and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALL\">Allstate</a>Ranked 1~5 in the total premium income of P&C insurance in 2020. Among them, State Farm realized $66.2 billion in premiums, accounting for approximately 9.19% of the market share; Berkshire Hathaway's premiums are $46.1 billion, and its market share is approximately 6.39%.</p><p><b>With $144 billion in cash in hand, stock positions remain unmoved</b></p><p>At present, Berkshire Hathaway still holds $144.1 billion in cash (cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments), which is stable compared to the previous quarter. 145.4 billion at the end of the first quarter. And in August 2020, when cash reserves stood at $146.6 billion, a record high.</p><p>In terms of the amount itself, for more than a year, Berkshire Hathaway's cash flow remained stable and remained above $1,440. Driven by huge amounts of cash, Buffett is still actively moving when it comes to share buybacks. Berkshire Hathaway had about $6 billion to buy back shares in the second quarter, bringing the six-month total to $12.6 billion. A record $24.7 billion in company stock was repurchased last year. While the total repurchases since the end of 2019 have exceeded $37 billion.</p><p>In terms of holdings, Berkshire Hathaway's stock portfolio is virtually unchanged, totaling nearly $300 billion. Notably, the company has cut more than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>More than 50% of the position to 23.7 million shares, and investment in Merck & Co. decreased by 37% to 17.9 million shares.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed78f43a62a7682dda9d2b8b667b832a","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140257089","content_text":"“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司8月7日发布2021年第二季度财报。\n财报发布之际，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股票已抹去了2020年的所有下跌，并创下历史新高。该公司的B类股8月上涨了2.7%，今年以来累计涨幅超23%。\n其中，铁路业务税后收益在第二季度竟增长了34%，成为最大亮点。做为巴菲特史上最大金额的一笔投资——2009年440亿美元收购美国铁路系统BNSF（伯灵顿北方圣达菲（Burlington Northern Santa Fe，简称BNSF）。如今该公司估计已经超过1600亿美元。\n显然，随着美国财政刺激的不断加大，越来越多的商品和货物被运往全美各地，经济活动继续从大流行中复苏，铁路公司受益明显。但是，在保险承保业务方面，运营利润只有3.76亿美元，同比下降53.3%。这显示着，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的金融业务收入在这几年来持续下滑。\n目前，伯克希尔·哈撒韦仍手持1441亿美元现金（约合人民币9341亿元），与去年同期1466亿美元的历史新高相比，变化不大。从持仓来看，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票投资组合几乎没有变化，在没有合适的“大象”目标下，巴菲特开展了更多伯克希尔公司股票回购计划。二季度伯克希尔·哈撒韦约有60亿美元用于回购股票，6个月总金额达到126亿美元。而自 2019 年底以来回购总额已超过370亿美元（约合人民币2400亿元）。\n二季度净利润增长6.8%\n8月7日，“股神”巴菲特二季度成绩单出炉，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公布2021年第二季度财报。财报显示，公司二季度总营收为691.14亿美元，较去年同期的568.40亿美元增长22%；归母净利润为280.94亿美元（约合人民币1800亿元），较2020年同期的262.95亿美元增长6.8%。\n\n伯克希尔·哈撒韦A类股每股收益18488美元，上年同期为16314美元；B类股每股收益12.33美元，上年同期为10.88美元。\n财报显示，该公司运营利润66.86亿美元，去年同期为55.13亿美元，同比增长21.3%；投资及衍生品利润214.08亿美元，上年同期为316.45亿美元。\n\n从伯克希尔·哈撒韦披露的数据看，真正的十大重仓项目如下（其中5个未上市，按持仓占比排列）：\n第1位：25%，BNSF铁路（未上市）\n第2位：19%， 苹果(AAPL ，上市)\n第3位：10%，伯克希尔能源（BHE，未上市）\n第4位：7%，盖可车险（GEICO，未上市）\n第5位：5%，美国银行（BAC，上市）\n第6位：3.5%， 可口可乐(KO，上市)\n第7位：3.5%，精密机件（PCP，未上市）\n第8位：2.9%，美国运通（AXP，上市）\n第9位：1.7%, 卡夫亨氏（KHC，上市）\n第10位：1.6%，路博润 （LZ，未上市）\n铁路业务成为最大亮点，二季度增长34%\n从具体业务领域来看，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司同比增长幅度最大的部门，分别是铁路、公用事业和能源部门，营业收入从一年前的17.6亿美元，增加到了22.6亿美元，同比增长27.9%。特别是，铁路业务的税后收益在第二季度增长了34%，反映出整体货运量增加和运营成本降低。\n伯克希尔·哈撒韦的铁路业务，是从2007年开始入股BNSF（伯灵顿北方圣达菲（Burlington Northern Santa Fe，简称BNSF），累计持有22.6%的股份而成为第一大股东。而后在2009年底，在美国经济衰退、BNSF业绩下滑时，巴菲特豪赌美国经济的未来，出手收购私有化了BNSF铁路。当年11月3日，巴菲特又斥资265亿美元和换股权等总价计440亿美元，将BNSF公司私有化。此举也是巴菲特史上最大金额的一笔投资。而当时收购谈判，仅仅用了20分钟。\n巴菲特认为，“我相信这国家将会好起来，并认为在往后的10至30年，有更多人使用这铁路运送更多货物。但这始终是对国家前景的一项赌注。”BNSF 运营北美最大的铁路运输网，主要运输煤炭、工业品和农产品。公司拥有 51500 公里运营网络，6700 台机车，遍及美国 28 个州和加拿大 2 个省，通达北美西海岸和墨西哥湾所有主要港口，亦可直接联接美国西部 2/3 区域中绝 大多数的主要城市，并拥有行业中首屈一指的南加州至芝加哥之间的铁路干线，以及美西北太平洋地区至芝加哥之间 最短的干线。\nBNSF 每年运送超过 500 万个集装箱和拖车，为世界最大的铁路多式联运承运公司。在全国四家大型的货运公司中，BNSF 的货运收入居第一。其收入由35%的消费品、27%的工业产品、21%的农产品和17%的煤炭组成。\n事实上，BNSF被伯克希尔·哈撒韦私有化之后，就随后成为公司财报的亮点，每年可为母公司贡献30多亿美元股息。外界估算，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的铁路业务估值占据了公司的1/4，而BNSF铁路也从2009年11月收购到现在应该升值了4倍多。没想到，股神对铁路股情有独钟，居然占仓位的四分之一。\n2019年5月，一年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会上，巴菲特说， BNSF是我们很好的资产，会把这个业务继续做100年。认为整体铁路业务相对其它公司有竞争力。去年下半年到今年上半年，在美国财政刺激效应带动下，美国进口猛增，美国的铁路站场、港口和仓库已经被货物挤得水泄不通，美国铁路运费同比增长15%。\n同样，公用事业上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司（BHE），是一家风电、天然气公司，BHE是全球最大的电力供应商之一，主营业务是发电、输电、配售电、输气管网及电网工程的建设及维护，同时大力发展新能源，打造了全美最大的两个太阳能发电项目。\nBHE是伯克希尔在2000年以17亿美元收购了BHE 85%的股份后，将其私有化，目前伯克希尔拥有BHE大约91%的股份，每年约为伯克希尔贡献10%的盈利。股神的接班人——阿贝尔就长期执掌伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司（BHE）。BHE当前估值超过500亿美元，在2020年的营收约为209亿美元。\n2021年，在致投资者的信当中，巴菲特表示BHE（伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司）将重修和扩大一个覆盖整个西部地区的传输电力的大部分电网，预计到2030年完工，届时BHE将成为提供更清洁能源的领导者。\n保险承保运营利润缩水逾半，净利润连续4年萎缩\n根据伯克希尔·哈撒韦的财报来看，保险业务下滑明显。数据显示，在保险及其他业务方面，保费营收171.63亿美元，销售及服务营收367.43亿美元，租赁营收14.47亿美元，利息、股息及其他投资营收18.98亿美元。而保险承保业务运营利润3.76亿美元，同比下降53.3%；保险投资收入业务运营利润12.19亿美元，同比下降10.9%。\n随着今年上半年情况的公布，市场预计伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险业务会在2021年持续下滑。数据显示，伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险业务利润在近5年时间里，持续下滑。2020年约为7.5亿美元，2019年为8亿美元，2018年为13亿美元。\n事实上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦是世界上最大的保险公司之一。巴菲特1967年首次收购国民保险公司（NICO）和国家消防和海洋保险公司，1996年私有化盖可保险，1998年以220亿美元收购通用再保险，保费收入累计增长1472倍，年复合增长达16%。目前，伯克希尔公司已经成为全球最大的保险公司之一。经过不断收购和整合，目前有3大保险运营主体，分别为盖可保险（GEICO）、伯克希尔再保险（BHRG）和BH Primary，分别涉足车险、再保险和特殊保险业务，共27家保险子公司。\n根据美国保险监督官协会今年3月份公布的2020年美国保险的相关数据。在2020年，美国财险业务的承保保费总计约7197亿美元。公司层面，State Farm、伯克希尔·哈撒韦、Progressive、Liberty Mutual和好事达分列2020年财险总保费收入的1~5名。其中，State Farm实现保费662亿美元，所占市场份额大约是9.19%；伯克希尔·哈撒韦的保费为461亿美元，所占市场份额大约是6.39%。\n手握1440亿美元现金， 股票仓位不动\n目前伯克希尔·哈撒韦仍手持1441亿美元现金（现金、现金等价物和短期投资），与上季度相比保持稳定。一季度末为1454亿美元。而2020年8月份，当时现金储备为1466亿美元，达到历史新高。\n从金额本身来看，持续一年多时间，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的现金流保持稳定，持续高居在1440美元上方。巨额现金推动下，在股票回购方面，巴菲特仍在积极行动。二季度伯克希尔·哈撒韦约有60亿美元用于回购股票，6个月总金额达到126亿美元。去年回购了创纪录的247亿美元公司股票。而自 2019 年底以来回购总额已超过370亿美元。\n从持仓来看，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票投资组合几乎没有变化，总计近3000亿美元。值得注意的是，该公司削减了超过雪佛龙超过50%的持仓至2370万股，对默克公司的投资减少了37%至1790万股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891144816,"gmtCreate":1628358818535,"gmtModify":1703505379719,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891144816","repostId":"1167785569","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893653941,"gmtCreate":1628260616483,"gmtModify":1703504209723,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893653941","repostId":"1190686261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":889800809,"gmtCreate":1631122579301,"gmtModify":1676530474613,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889800809","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had envisioned a summer when the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, kids returning to school and corner coffee shops opening again. But everything backfired, and with the resurgence of the pandemic, the recovery stepped on the brakes in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the shocking data on non-farm payrolls brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years in August, with Americans worried by the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. ET on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths were reported across the United States.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the U.S. has averaged more than 161,000 new cases a day, a whopping 1,560 new deaths and an average of more than 102,000 daily hospitalizations, only slightly below last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, U.S. offices and schools have been delayed, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Beginning in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, and some have even pushed back their return dates to 2022.</b></p><p>Visitor arrivals to Hawaii have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels in mid-July, down only about 10% from the same time in 2019, official figures show. But starting in August, the pace has slowed somewhat, and in the last seven days of August, average daily visitor arrivals were down 34% from 2019.</p><p>Theater footfall at the end of August more than halved compared to the pandemic peak in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online instruction.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying the reopening of schools was supposed to be a big moment for the economy. About a quarter of families have school-aged children, and reliable child care can get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under the age of 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>\"Our sense of uncertainty and anxiety from last year is back, and that uncertainty is enough to dampen labor supply,\" Meier said.</b></p><p><h2>Institutions are cutting U.S. growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant virus won't push the U.S. back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and discouraging companies from investing amid new uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released on Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast this year to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate this year is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%.</p><p>In explaining why they cut their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several major factors,<b>It is expected that due to the raging virus variant Delta, weakening government financial support, and the shift in demand from goods to services, American consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"The obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future seem to be much more: the Delta variant virus is already pressuring growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down, which will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also sharply lowered the U.S. GDP forecast in the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast in the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising the GDP forecast for the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's GDP growth rate for the United States this year is expected to be 5.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate for the whole year after Goldman Sachs lowered this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the stimulus expenditure of government has decreased to the economy, and the bottleneck of supply chain continues to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer expenditure on large-scale durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>Two consecutive losses in U.S. stocks, a bigger test is behind</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow dropped more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since Aug. 19 and its biggest closing drop since Aug. 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since Aug. 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow and S&P closed lower after the non-farm payrolls report, which was far worse than expected, was released last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline of most sectors of U.S. stocks. The prices of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds both fell during the session, the yield of Treasury Bond rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield reached a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reevaluating the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate earnings.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures in the United States, the economic recovery in the United States will face further tests.</b></p><p>More than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits during the pandemic this week.<b>In addition to halting pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt hikes have created additional tests for the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that although it seems likely that the US Congress will pass an infrastructure bill this autumn, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress could vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending — another short-term risk to markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the increase in the debt ceiling this autumn. The U.S. Congress needs to pass a debt ceiling increase later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had envisioned a summer when the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, kids returning to school and corner coffee shops opening again. But everything backfired, and with the resurgence of the pandemic, the recovery stepped on the brakes in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the shocking data on non-farm payrolls brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years in August, with Americans worried by the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. ET on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths were reported across the United States.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the U.S. has averaged more than 161,000 new cases a day, a whopping 1,560 new deaths and an average of more than 102,000 daily hospitalizations, only slightly below last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, U.S. offices and schools have been delayed, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Beginning in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, and some have even pushed back their return dates to 2022.</b></p><p>Visitor arrivals to Hawaii have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels in mid-July, down only about 10% from the same time in 2019, official figures show. But starting in August, the pace has slowed somewhat, and in the last seven days of August, average daily visitor arrivals were down 34% from 2019.</p><p>Theater footfall at the end of August more than halved compared to the pandemic peak in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online instruction.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying the reopening of schools was supposed to be a big moment for the economy. About a quarter of families have school-aged children, and reliable child care can get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under the age of 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>\"Our sense of uncertainty and anxiety from last year is back, and that uncertainty is enough to dampen labor supply,\" Meier said.</b></p><p><h2>Institutions are cutting U.S. growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant virus won't push the U.S. back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and discouraging companies from investing amid new uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released on Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast this year to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate this year is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%.</p><p>In explaining why they cut their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several major factors,<b>It is expected that due to the raging virus variant Delta, weakening government financial support, and the shift in demand from goods to services, American consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"The obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future seem to be much more: the Delta variant virus is already pressuring growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down, which will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also sharply lowered the U.S. GDP forecast in the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast in the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising the GDP forecast for the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's GDP growth rate for the United States this year is expected to be 5.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate for the whole year after Goldman Sachs lowered this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the stimulus expenditure of government has decreased to the economy, and the bottleneck of supply chain continues to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer expenditure on large-scale durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>Two consecutive losses in U.S. stocks, a bigger test is behind</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow dropped more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since Aug. 19 and its biggest closing drop since Aug. 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since Aug. 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow and S&P closed lower after the non-farm payrolls report, which was far worse than expected, was released last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline of most sectors of U.S. stocks. The prices of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds both fell during the session, the yield of Treasury Bond rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield reached a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reevaluating the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate earnings.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures in the United States, the economic recovery in the United States will face further tests.</b></p><p>More than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits during the pandemic this week.<b>In addition to halting pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt hikes have created additional tests for the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that although it seems likely that the US Congress will pass an infrastructure bill this autumn, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress could vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending — another short-term risk to markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the increase in the debt ceiling this autumn. The U.S. Congress needs to pass a debt ceiling increase later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835240012,"gmtCreate":1629723743636,"gmtModify":1676530111553,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835240012","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>Ricaz, the author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a brand-new front of currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers haven't noticed it is that the situation has not evolved to the point where all parties involved have blatantly manipulated monetary policy without restraint, and that day is not far away, perhaps early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, initially as a lawyer. During the Asian financial turmoil, he happened to be the legal counsel of the hedge fund Long-Term Asset Management Company, and participated in the promotion of the Fed-led rescue operation, which avoided major damage to the American financial system. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare adviser to the Pentagon.</p><p>But Mr Rickards is best known to investors as the author of financial bestselling books, with Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012, particularly widespread. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally made people dare not take it lightly. In his latest article, Rickards explains his views on the subject, which is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strength of the US dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, the US Treasury Department will probably weaken the US dollar, and the curtain of currency war will open.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is, since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then-US President Barack Obama began to weaken the dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury knew well that a weaker dollar would inevitably hurt growth prospects in Europe and Japan, but they clearly didn't care at all. Of course, this thinking is objectively justified. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the U.S. economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world will be immune to it.</p><p>In the wake of the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure a sustained recovery and avoid a new recession. It is Europe that is down on luck this time, and the United States and the rest of the world's economies have not suffered much.</p><p><b>Currency War Temporary Truce</b></p><p>Americans' policies have worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that roughly at the same time, the price of gold rushed to an all-time high and the exchange rate of the euro soared. Needless to say, the U.S. economy has received much-needed support.</p><p>It was only after that that the US began to unleash goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was reduced to $1.05 per euro. The judgment of Americans at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the decline of the euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and push the euro zone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar crossover has largely oscillated in a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, which is almost exactly the same as today four years later.</p><p>Here, the first thing we must understand is that the so-called currency war does not necessarily only involve the two or all parties going shirtless, causing the cross exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation to be extreme. Currency wars also have relatively quiet cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing their currencies relative to major trading partners-in other words, war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar as part of its own economic rescue plan in the near future, there will be a first wave of strength in the short term. Why is this?</p><p><b>A faltering recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the problem is, first and foremost, that the White House and the U.S. Treasury don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, U.S. GDP growth of 6.5 percent in the second quarter was slower than widely expected, but the real economy is even worse than the figures suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, whose reading was still 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% by June, while the real economic growth rate in the second quarter, as we all know, was 6.5%. This means that growth prospects have been significantly weakened in just three months in the second quarter. It also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also quite worrying. Imports, for example, are booming because Americans are loosing up government stimulus checks.</p><p>On the export side, however, the story is completely different, which shows that many other economies in the world are not doing as well as the United States. In the simplest and most straightforward terms, many of these other economies are in such bad shape that they simply have no appetite for eating much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. Private-sector revenue growth was essentially zero for up to eight months from October 2020. Just seeing this is terrible, and thinking that the government subsidies that support personal incomes are expiring one after another makes one more pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p>The countdown to the disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered. The order barring homeowners from evicting tenants is also dozens of days away, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans have expired. All in all, there is no possibility of a new plan to distribute cheques on a large scale in the short term.</p><p>Now that the tide of government cash distributions is in its final stages, while personal incomes are stagnating and exports are suffering a decline, what else can we expect to continue growing U.S. gross domestic product in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November of this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is really doing. In addition, by then, they will probably have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several months.</p><p>The trouble is that it is bound to be too late to find a way to stop the sharp downturn. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic side and the White House will be in utter panic, and by then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, before that, why did the dollar show strength?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. A crisis like this certainly cannot happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how dire the status quo has really become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>-Many governments are reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation shows how serious their problems have been.</p><p>-Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and big financial institutions expect that the interest rate trend in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that the financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy will have a high probability of recession in the long term.</p><p>— — Since March, the yield of the ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investors because of fear, and everyone expects that future economic growth will slow down, alleviate inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to predict exactly when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors are bound to desperately pursue safety, and the dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Ricaz, the author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a brand-new front of currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers haven't noticed it is that the situation has not evolved to the point where all parties involved have blatantly manipulated monetary policy without restraint, and that day is not far away, perhaps early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, initially as a lawyer. During the Asian financial turmoil, he happened to be the legal counsel of the hedge fund Long-Term Asset Management Company, and participated in the promotion of the Fed-led rescue operation, which avoided major damage to the American financial system. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare adviser to the Pentagon.</p><p>But Mr Rickards is best known to investors as the author of financial bestselling books, with Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012, particularly widespread. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally made people dare not take it lightly. In his latest article, Rickards explains his views on the subject, which is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strength of the US dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, the US Treasury Department will probably weaken the US dollar, and the curtain of currency war will open.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is, since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then-US President Barack Obama began to weaken the dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury knew well that a weaker dollar would inevitably hurt growth prospects in Europe and Japan, but they clearly didn't care at all. Of course, this thinking is objectively justified. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the U.S. economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world will be immune to it.</p><p>In the wake of the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure a sustained recovery and avoid a new recession. It is Europe that is down on luck this time, and the United States and the rest of the world's economies have not suffered much.</p><p><b>Currency War Temporary Truce</b></p><p>Americans' policies have worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that roughly at the same time, the price of gold rushed to an all-time high and the exchange rate of the euro soared. Needless to say, the U.S. economy has received much-needed support.</p><p>It was only after that that the US began to unleash goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was reduced to $1.05 per euro. The judgment of Americans at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the decline of the euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and push the euro zone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar crossover has largely oscillated in a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, which is almost exactly the same as today four years later.</p><p>Here, the first thing we must understand is that the so-called currency war does not necessarily only involve the two or all parties going shirtless, causing the cross exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation to be extreme. Currency wars also have relatively quiet cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing their currencies relative to major trading partners-in other words, war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar as part of its own economic rescue plan in the near future, there will be a first wave of strength in the short term. Why is this?</p><p><b>A faltering recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the problem is, first and foremost, that the White House and the U.S. Treasury don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, U.S. GDP growth of 6.5 percent in the second quarter was slower than widely expected, but the real economy is even worse than the figures suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, whose reading was still 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% by June, while the real economic growth rate in the second quarter, as we all know, was 6.5%. This means that growth prospects have been significantly weakened in just three months in the second quarter. It also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also quite worrying. Imports, for example, are booming because Americans are loosing up government stimulus checks.</p><p>On the export side, however, the story is completely different, which shows that many other economies in the world are not doing as well as the United States. In the simplest and most straightforward terms, many of these other economies are in such bad shape that they simply have no appetite for eating much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. Private-sector revenue growth was essentially zero for up to eight months from October 2020. Just seeing this is terrible, and thinking that the government subsidies that support personal incomes are expiring one after another makes one more pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p>The countdown to the disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered. The order barring homeowners from evicting tenants is also dozens of days away, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans have expired. All in all, there is no possibility of a new plan to distribute cheques on a large scale in the short term.</p><p>Now that the tide of government cash distributions is in its final stages, while personal incomes are stagnating and exports are suffering a decline, what else can we expect to continue growing U.S. gross domestic product in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November of this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is really doing. In addition, by then, they will probably have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several months.</p><p>The trouble is that it is bound to be too late to find a way to stop the sharp downturn. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic side and the White House will be in utter panic, and by then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, before that, why did the dollar show strength?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. A crisis like this certainly cannot happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how dire the status quo has really become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>-Many governments are reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation shows how serious their problems have been.</p><p>-Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and big financial institutions expect that the interest rate trend in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that the financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy will have a high probability of recession in the long term.</p><p>— — Since March, the yield of the ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investors because of fear, and everyone expects that future economic growth will slow down, alleviate inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to predict exactly when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors are bound to desperately pursue safety, and the dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894786105,"gmtCreate":1628857486107,"gmtModify":1676529876355,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894786105","repostId":"1138393223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138393223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628833966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138393223?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138393223","media":"美港电讯","summary":"摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。","content":"<p>On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed red across the board. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, and the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, Marko Kolanovic, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, stressed that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He thinks,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor holdings, signs of receding Delta and normalizing bond-equity correlations</b>We still have reservations about the risk of recent market correction. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and are cautious about stocks that benefit from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the position distribution of investors</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions are currently soaring, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds for now, although both major banking institutional brokerages show record levels of total hedge fund exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Setting aside the facts, while Kolanovic expects the level of positions to continue to rise, he said the current position is still near average compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows equity betas (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment vehicles relative to the whole market, separating the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>It has to be admitted that the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan pointed to a more important point that these metrics are close to historical averages — at about 50%, while most revisions historically have occurred when these metrics were above about 80%. Sometimes, though, even if these metrics linger at 100% for as long as a year, the stock market does not suffer a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the Risk of Soaring U.S. Treasury Yields</b></p><p>So what is a risk if an investor's position does not pose a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields could rise sharply (or in relation to tapering, inflation, etc).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the price of a 10-year bond and the beta coefficient of different equity sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose 1% on average, tech stocks rose 4%, and financials fell 3%. This correlation waned somewhat after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typically negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>In the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (e.g., technology, discretionary assets, communications) pushed the beta index of bond stocks in the S&P 500 to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich sees such a small risk, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that such an event occurs on the condition that stocks and 10-year U.S. bonds suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened, and the recent performance of both the stock and bond markets is very good (the rise of cyclical stocks, the bright results of growth stocks and the rebound of U.S. bond yields), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold is extremely low.\" Kolanovic noted that investors can hedge their risk by holding bonds and stocks for less time, which will likely trigger investors to move away from growth stocks to value stocks to some extent, thus adding to the low risk of widespread stock market selling.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta</b></p><p>Now that the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what other factors can cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor holding back the strength of risky assets in the past few months was the spread of the Delta strain, not the peak of economic growth or the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic strongly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should be reassured that the Delta death rate is low in vaccinated countries, and it is very likely that this will be the last wave of Covid.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of people who can infect patients who start to show symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other Potential Risks</b></p><p>Well, positions are on average, taper risks are under control, and the Delta pandemic is receding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the sub-risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that have benefited from COVID, such as renewables and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovic believes it won't be enough to destroy the market either.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic expects that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relations of the United States with Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market each month, bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港电讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed red across the board. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, and the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, Marko Kolanovic, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, stressed that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He thinks,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor holdings, signs of receding Delta and normalizing bond-equity correlations</b>We still have reservations about the risk of recent market correction. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and are cautious about stocks that benefit from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the position distribution of investors</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions are currently soaring, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds for now, although both major banking institutional brokerages show record levels of total hedge fund exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Setting aside the facts, while Kolanovic expects the level of positions to continue to rise, he said the current position is still near average compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows equity betas (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment vehicles relative to the whole market, separating the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>It has to be admitted that the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan pointed to a more important point that these metrics are close to historical averages — at about 50%, while most revisions historically have occurred when these metrics were above about 80%. Sometimes, though, even if these metrics linger at 100% for as long as a year, the stock market does not suffer a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the Risk of Soaring U.S. Treasury Yields</b></p><p>So what is a risk if an investor's position does not pose a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields could rise sharply (or in relation to tapering, inflation, etc).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the price of a 10-year bond and the beta coefficient of different equity sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose 1% on average, tech stocks rose 4%, and financials fell 3%. This correlation waned somewhat after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typically negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>In the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (e.g., technology, discretionary assets, communications) pushed the beta index of bond stocks in the S&P 500 to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich sees such a small risk, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that such an event occurs on the condition that stocks and 10-year U.S. bonds suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened, and the recent performance of both the stock and bond markets is very good (the rise of cyclical stocks, the bright results of growth stocks and the rebound of U.S. bond yields), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold is extremely low.\" Kolanovic noted that investors can hedge their risk by holding bonds and stocks for less time, which will likely trigger investors to move away from growth stocks to value stocks to some extent, thus adding to the low risk of widespread stock market selling.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta</b></p><p>Now that the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what other factors can cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor holding back the strength of risky assets in the past few months was the spread of the Delta strain, not the peak of economic growth or the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic strongly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should be reassured that the Delta death rate is low in vaccinated countries, and it is very likely that this will be the last wave of Covid.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of people who can infect patients who start to show symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other Potential Risks</b></p><p>Well, positions are on average, taper risks are under control, and the Delta pandemic is receding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the sub-risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that have benefited from COVID, such as renewables and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovic believes it won't be enough to destroy the market either.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic expects that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relations of the United States with Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market each month, bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733\">美港电讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138393223","content_text":"周四美股三大股指收盘全线飘红。道指和标普500指数盘中双双再创新高。医药、软件板块表现强势，新能源相关板块连续第二日回落。\n对此，摩根大通分析师马克•科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）强调，市场夸大了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，价值股将大幅上涨，超过成长股。他认为，美债收益率和周期股可能已经在上周触底，今年剩余时间料将打开上行空间。\n科拉诺维奇表示：\n\n “鉴于\n 强劲的财报季、投资者谨慎的持仓、德尔塔病毒消退的迹象以及债券-股票相关性正常化，我们对近期市场回调风险仍持保留意见。我们尤其看好周期性和通货再膨胀相关的市场板块，并对受益于疫情和低债券收益率的股票持谨慎态度。”\n\n从投资者的仓位分布来看\n科拉诺维奇一如既往地认为，不管仓位目前飙升到多高，平均情况才是最好的参考指标。而且，尽管两家主要银行机构经纪公司均显示对冲基金的总敞口达到创纪录水平，但散户投资者目前显然还是将“所有资金”投入对冲基金。\n\n抛开事实不谈，虽然科拉诺维奇预估仓位水平将持续上升，但他表示，目前的仓位与10年历史相比，仍处在平均水平附近。图1显示了广义对冲基金、股票多/空对冲基金和以波动率为目标的基金（如保险公司、风险平价等）的股票贝塔系数（以百分位数表示）。\n贝塔系数用来量化个别投资工具相对整个市场的波动，将个别风险引起的价格变化和整个市场波动分离开来。\n\n不得不承认的是，今年这些基金增加的敞口肯定对股市有所帮助。然而，摩根大通指出了更重要的一点，这些指标接近历史平均水平——约50%处，而历史上大多数修正发生在这些指标高于80%左右的时候。不过，有时即使这些指标在100%逗留了长达一年的时间，股市也没有遭遇显著的修正。\n这是因为，在这个市场上，广泛的投资者仓位完全无关紧要，只有美联储的政策走向至关重要。\n从美债收益率飙升的风险来看\n那么，如果投资者的仓位不构成风险，什么才是风险呢？按照科拉诺维奇的说法，下一个风险因素是收益率可能急剧上升（或与缩减购债规模、通胀等相关）。下图展示了10年期债券价格与不同股票板块的贝塔系数之间的相关性。\n\n科拉诺维奇写道，在7月份，科技板块的债券贝塔值为+4，而金融板块的贝塔值为-3。换句话说，10年期债券价格平均上涨1%，科技股上涨4%，金融股下跌3%。财报发布后，这种相关性有所减弱，现在所有股票板块都与债券价格呈现典型的负相关性。\n在过去一个月里，纳斯达克板块（如科技、非必需资产、通讯）走弱推动标普500指数债券类股的贝塔指数从第二季度的负区域升至约1。\n这里明显的风险是，在债券抛售期间这种相关性的迅速逆转，可能导致债券和股票双双遭到抛售。这在2018年2月和10月就曾发生过。\n科拉诺维奇认为这样的风险很小，他写道：\n\n “考虑到当前的仓位水平、波动性和其他因素，我们估计，这样的事件发生的条件是：股票和10年期美债在1天内遭受约3%的抛售。但鉴于两者间的相关性已经减弱，且近期股市和债市的表现都很不错（周期性股票抬头、成长型股票财报成绩亮眼以及美债收益率回升），因此债券和股票双双遭到抛售的概率极低。”\n\n科拉诺维奇指出，投资者可以通过减少持有债券和股票的时间来对冲风险，这可能在一定程度上将触发投资者从成长型股票转向价值股，因此更加说明了股市大范围抛售风险不大。\n从德尔塔病毒的风险来看\n既然仓位调整和收益率上升（或者说缩债）的风险能得到有效控制，还有什么因素会引发担忧呢？\n科拉诺维奇表示，过去几个月阻碍风险资产走强的主要因素是德尔塔毒株的传播，而非经济增长见顶或者美联储鹰派发言。科拉诺维奇坚信，尽管病例数量高企，“在接种了疫苗的国家中，德尔塔疫情的死亡率较低，投资者应该感到放心，而且这很有可能是最后一波新冠疫情。”\n\n科拉诺维奇补充道：\n\n “有强烈的迹象表明，美国正在开始逆转德尔塔疫情。一个重要信号是，美国50个州中有40个州的基本传染数（某时刻开始出现症状的患者平均能够感染的人数）正在下降。”\n\n其他潜在风险\n那么，仓位处于平均水平，缩减风险已得到控制，德尔塔疫情正在消退。市场还存在其他风险吗?\n答案是肯定的。在摩根大通量化分析师列出的次级风险中，包括在新冠疫情中受益的资产，如可再生能源和电动汽车、加密货币和创新股。\n虽然这些板块在年初经历了一次重大调整，但摩根大通相信还会有另一轮下跌。最终的调整水平可能由这些行业与同等传统行业之间的估值趋同决定。\n尽管这些“泡沫资产”可能会继续破裂，但科拉诺维奇认为，这也不足以摧毁市场。\n最后，科拉诺维奇预计，明年地缘政治风险将会进一步增加和放大，这些风险将涉及各种相互依存的问题，如美国与俄罗斯、伊朗的地缘政治关系、围绕能源安全的问题，通货膨胀，以及美国自身的政治发展。但只要美联储继续每月向市场注入数十亿美元的流动性，看涨的预期就不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802144001,"gmtCreate":1627741152903,"gmtModify":1703495386598,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802144001","repostId":"1120441766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How does the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"<p>As July draws to a close, investors are beginning to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve, as always, is in focus, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility can't be ignored.</p><p>August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, when nearly half of companies have reported earnings. Still, at least from a historical perspective, stocks have some weak seasonal trends heading into September. This is worth watching, especially considering both inflation and stock valuations remain concerning.</p><p><b>Corporate earnings season</b></p><p>After the Federal Reserve's late July meeting, investors can refocus on corporate earnings season. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but earnings drive the U.S. stock market in the long run. At the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was exactly in line with analysts' expectations, or even partially beat them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 fell 2% on concerns about the Delta virus mutation, with a slight little swing; However, in late July, the bright performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of U.S. stocks. Entering August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The performance has worried many investors. There are signs that more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel as the virus spreads further.</p><p>Markets can't expect changes from the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean people returning to so-called \"defensive\" areas, namely fixed income, very large tech stocks and the dollar.</p><p>Back to earnings, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>Companies and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed reasonably well in their July reports, as did airlines and railways. There is an argument that if railways operate well, then the wider economy will also develop well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor earnings estimates for the full quarter are also on the rise, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared to 69.4% estimates. Since July, companies in a number of industries (led by the financial, healthcare, information technology and communication services industries) have reported earnings that have exceeded expectations, resulting in improvements in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in the semiconductor sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither has failed to impress investors, with shares of both companies on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to exceed expectations or have a broad room for growth to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve Policy Support and Economic Data</b></p><p>\"No fight with the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to prop up stocks in any downturn. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation could cool.</p><p>The Fed's rhetoric will affect a \"key indicator\" of global assets: Will U.S. Treasury Bond yields get back on an upward path in August, or will they fall below a nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as technology, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as finance and energy. The ongoing tug-of-war between growth and value throughout the year shows no sign of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, there were plenty of people on Wall Street who thought Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Fed to announce its long-awaited taper. That doesn't have to be the case now: The steady decline in U.S. bond yields since the end of March appears to have given the Fed more room to maneuver to maintain its $120 billion-a-month bond purchase program. It's a strategy the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.</p><p>The U.S. economy grew more than 6% in the first quarter of this year, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield was nearly 1.3% at the end of July. That's a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and month-to-month high inflation.</p><p>Both Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be keeping a close eye on the July consumer and producer prices, which are released in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus may now turn more to wage growth: If employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, it could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Fed. Some economists note that the Federal Reserve continues to buy mortgage-backed securities, providing unnecessary ammunition for an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility raises concerns</b></p><p>August could be a respite for investors. Traditionally, this is due to a time when many traders have gone on vacation and volatility and trading volumes tend to decline. There was some disruption to this seasonal factor last year, but if fears of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow, Wall Street might have a more normal holiday schedule.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is likely to receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average for the VIX is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that people expect less turmoil ahead.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>pointed out that the seasonal factors in August were not favorable for the market, and from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which was the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in the first half of that year 19 times in 72 years. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half of the year, median returns typically decline 51 basis points in August before rising again.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How does the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow does the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-31 01:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As July draws to a close, investors are beginning to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve, as always, is in focus, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility can't be ignored.</p><p>August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, when nearly half of companies have reported earnings. Still, at least from a historical perspective, stocks have some weak seasonal trends heading into September. This is worth watching, especially considering both inflation and stock valuations remain concerning.</p><p><b>Corporate earnings season</b></p><p>After the Federal Reserve's late July meeting, investors can refocus on corporate earnings season. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but earnings drive the U.S. stock market in the long run. At the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was exactly in line with analysts' expectations, or even partially beat them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 fell 2% on concerns about the Delta virus mutation, with a slight little swing; However, in late July, the bright performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of U.S. stocks. Entering August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The performance has worried many investors. There are signs that more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel as the virus spreads further.</p><p>Markets can't expect changes from the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean people returning to so-called \"defensive\" areas, namely fixed income, very large tech stocks and the dollar.</p><p>Back to earnings, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>Companies and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed reasonably well in their July reports, as did airlines and railways. There is an argument that if railways operate well, then the wider economy will also develop well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor earnings estimates for the full quarter are also on the rise, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared to 69.4% estimates. Since July, companies in a number of industries (led by the financial, healthcare, information technology and communication services industries) have reported earnings that have exceeded expectations, resulting in improvements in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in the semiconductor sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither has failed to impress investors, with shares of both companies on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to exceed expectations or have a broad room for growth to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve Policy Support and Economic Data</b></p><p>\"No fight with the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to prop up stocks in any downturn. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation could cool.</p><p>The Fed's rhetoric will affect a \"key indicator\" of global assets: Will U.S. Treasury Bond yields get back on an upward path in August, or will they fall below a nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as technology, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as finance and energy. The ongoing tug-of-war between growth and value throughout the year shows no sign of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, there were plenty of people on Wall Street who thought Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Fed to announce its long-awaited taper. That doesn't have to be the case now: The steady decline in U.S. bond yields since the end of March appears to have given the Fed more room to maneuver to maintain its $120 billion-a-month bond purchase program. It's a strategy the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.</p><p>The U.S. economy grew more than 6% in the first quarter of this year, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield was nearly 1.3% at the end of July. That's a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and month-to-month high inflation.</p><p>Both Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be keeping a close eye on the July consumer and producer prices, which are released in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus may now turn more to wage growth: If employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, it could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Fed. Some economists note that the Federal Reserve continues to buy mortgage-backed securities, providing unnecessary ammunition for an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility raises concerns</b></p><p>August could be a respite for investors. Traditionally, this is due to a time when many traders have gone on vacation and volatility and trading volumes tend to decline. There was some disruption to this seasonal factor last year, but if fears of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow, Wall Street might have a more normal holiday schedule.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is likely to receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average for the VIX is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that people expect less turmoil ahead.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>pointed out that the seasonal factors in August were not favorable for the market, and from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which was the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in the first half of that year 19 times in 72 years. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half of the year, median returns typically decline 51 basis points in August before rising again.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"content":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]","text":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]","html":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863524636,"gmtCreate":1632407213825,"gmtModify":1676530775482,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863524636","repostId":"2169565516","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169565516","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632364656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2169565516?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why exactly does Amazon block Chinese sellers?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169565516","media":"36氪","summary":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息","content":"<p>Because of the account ban and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that leads to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale is laid off. Especially when some We Media traffic is swallowed up, it seems that there are no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon sealed? At first, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. As Amazon officials kept silent, this number gradually defaulted to fact.</p><p>Even at Amazon's event of settling the world's first comprehensive seller training center in Hangzhou held last Friday, it was still tight-lipped about the number of closed stores, and didn't plan to disclose it to the outside world. It was hoped that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will certainly not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a Q&A session of settlement activity into a press conference of store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, vice president of Amazon Global and CEO of Amazon Global Shop Asia Pacific, all admitted frankly, \"Today's release was originally for the training center to settle in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the account being blocked, so I made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the sales rights of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused reviews, as well as many other violations. In the past period, Amazon has warned these sellers many times, and they have had many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate regulations, so this time it is decided to terminate the cooperation with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller violated the rules seriously, and Amazon was forced to take the last step after giving many opportunities.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final number must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four young people, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of the employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closing 54 stores, and frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect?</p><p>Advances in algorithms</p><p>In fact, there is an unspoken rule known in the industry. That is, Amazon has two fixed account sweeps every year, one on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts two months in advance for its large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; The other is in the first 2 months of Christmas, i.e. mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, if a brand authorizes 50 stores, it will have no impact at all if a few are sealed. \"In fact, as long as the number of shops closed does not exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about this.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's industry explosion, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether product reviews are true or false. Once, many self-operated listings (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, because the error was too serious, Amazon stopped closing on a large scale.</p><p>But technology kept improving until it began to mature a lot this year. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, and it is no longer judged according to the store logic, but according to the brand dimension logic. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand, and it exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of store groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Andy Jassy, the new CEO of Amazon, was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site reviews, and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, the invitation will definitely be bad reviews. Therefore, this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money drives out good money all the time, good money will not be possible.\" The above-mentioned seller said.</p><p>Supplier logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and it is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>That is, all of the seller's digital assets on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping center, and Amazon is a department store. So this has laid the foreshadowing of some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the regulations, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, while Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent prosecution will bear joint and several liability.</p><p>This was also confirmed by Cindy Tai. The Amazon funds freeze period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the seller's refund return compensation costs of past customers, as well as other unpaid expenses. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, when you open a shop in Amazon, you are actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform then helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative and judicial body, and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the directory.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon doesn't do well is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-discrimination link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests that should be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes in silence, the future will probably be a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In the complaint process, Cindy Tai, vice president of Amazon Global and CEO of Amazon Global Store Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated because of violations, Amazon will provide sellers with an opportunity to appeal; As long as the seller proves that Amazon is wrong in judgment, or that the violation is only temporary or unintentional, and provides a solution to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36Kr from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost 0. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the variety of changes in Amazon's rules. The main problem lies in the inefficiency of email communication.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the whole cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What has been looking for is which enterprises can cross the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to come out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the comprehensive ability of enterprises to meet user needs, marketing methods, supply chain impact, etc. However, it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even more scarce. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>And the success of Shein, which makes all investors very excited, look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>In the future, the first thing the industry has to reconstruct is consciousness. The past distribution path is already a dead end, and the earlier it is, the more opportunities for transformation. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because he transformed his brand two years late. When he turned back and chased after him, he realized that the probability of success was extremely small. This is also the dividend path dependence left by the early stage of the industry. Because it was easier to make fast money in the past, they were reluctant to take a difficult and correct road with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category to cultivate deeply. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why won't the previous simple rough mode work? Because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and service, third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brand determination to be stronger. In such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce out of the circle, and the title is accelerated. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across the border. Industries that seem to have no threshold are actually not low, especially in the practical stage. Perhaps some pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but creating competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as the current industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using the power of capital. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively general, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, it will be obvious that the reason why these two companies have such a high valuation in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing capital is only the underlying role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, some talents such as big factories, high education and rich industry experience are invested. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business pattern. In other words, you don't accept investment and capital invests in your competitors.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why exactly does Amazon block Chinese sellers?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy exactly does Amazon block Chinese sellers?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Because of the account ban and capital freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been hot searched this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that leads to the whole cross-border e-commerce has always been that today's big sale is closed, and tomorrow's big sale is laid off. Especially when some We Media traffic is swallowed up, it seems that there are no positive events in the industry.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores has Amazon sealed? At first, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000. As Amazon officials kept silent, this number gradually defaulted to fact.</p><p>Even at Amazon's event of settling the world's first comprehensive seller training center in Hangzhou held last Friday, it was still tight-lipped about the number of closed stores, and didn't plan to disclose it to the outside world. It was hoped that the cold treatment would pass.</p><p>The invited media will certainly not miss this rare opportunity, so they turned a Q&A session of settlement activity into a press conference of store closure tide. So much so that Cindy Tai, vice president of Amazon Global and CEO of Amazon Global Shop Asia Pacific, all admitted frankly, \"Today's release was originally for the training center to settle in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media to pay attention to the account being blocked, so I made the first response together.\"</p><p>According to her, in the past five months, Amazon has closed the sales rights of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some big sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly, repeatedly and seriously abused reviews, as well as many other violations. In the past period, Amazon has warned these sellers many times, and they have had many opportunities to appeal, and even restored some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers continue to violate regulations, so this time it is decided to terminate the cooperation with these sellers.\"</p><p>In translation, the blocked seller violated the rules seriously, and Amazon was forced to take the last step after giving many opportunities.</p><p>\"Amazon only released the data for the first five months, but the data for June, July and August were not disclosed. Many stores were also affected in these three months. So the final number must be much larger than this.\" A senior practitioner told<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the loss is really not small. For example, once<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">China South City</a>There is a tree among the four young people, 340 shops have been closed, and 130 million yuan of funds have been frozen. It directly led to half of the employees leaving their jobs, half of their income, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another big seller, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closing 54 stores, and frozen funds of 41.43 million yuan.</p><p>So, why is Amazon's store closure so strong this time? What are the things behind it that make us really reflect?</p><p>Advances in algorithms</p><p>In fact, there is an unspoken rule known in the industry. That is, Amazon has two fixed account sweeps every year, one on Prime Day around July. Amazon usually closes some accounts two months in advance for its large-scale promotion, that is, from the end of April to the beginning of May; The other is in the first 2 months of Christmas, i.e. mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because of seeing this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, if a brand authorizes 50 stores, it will have no impact at all if a few are sealed. \"In fact, as long as the number of shops closed does not exceed a certain percentage, even the boss doesn't need to know about this.\" A seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's industry explosion, all sellers are more optimistic this year, and they don't see the real risks behind this incident at all. In fact, as early as 3 years ago, Amazon was using algorithms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In detecting whether product reviews are true or false. Once, many self-operated listings (product pages) have been blocked. For example, the Listing of a seller in Shenzhen has been reduced from 17,000 to 1,000, and the circle of friends is also a wail. Fortunately, because the error was too serious, Amazon stopped closing on a large scale.</p><p>But technology kept improving until it began to mature a lot this year. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, and it is no longer judged according to the store logic, but according to the brand dimension logic. As long as the algorithm identifies the problematic brand, and it exceeds a certain proportion, all its stores will be closed. That's why a large number of store groups have been blocked.</p><p>36Kr also noticed that Andy Jassy, the new CEO of Amazon, was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, pays more attention to the protection of the authenticity of platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start to adopt the white hat game. And Amazon also encourages on-site reviews, and invites users to evaluate through on-site letters. If the product and experience are not good, the invitation will definitely be bad reviews. Therefore, this matter is very good for the whole ecology. If bad money drives out good money all the time, good money will not be possible.\" The above-mentioned seller said.</p><p>Supplier logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of the algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of domestic Tmall Taobao. The difference is that Amazon regards all sellers on the platform as suppliers, and it is equivalent to a retailer.</p><p>That is, all of the seller's digital assets on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>, are all suppliers of Amazon.</p><p>\"It can be understood that Tmall is similar to a shopping center, and Amazon is a department store. So this has laid the foreshadowing of some punishment mechanisms of Amazon. If Tmall sellers violate the regulations, will the platform move your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales scale, while Tmall talks about GMV.\" Zhou Jun, vice president of sales of Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>It's different for Amazon. Once the customer's payment is received, it is responsible for the user. As long as it is found that the seller may cause harm to the customer, the funds will be frozen first to cope with whether the subsequent prosecution will bear joint and several liability.</p><p>This was also confirmed by Cindy Tai. The Amazon funds freeze period is 90 days, which is mainly used to bear the seller's refund return compensation costs of past customers, as well as other unpaid expenses. After 90 days, if there is no violation, you can apply for retrieval.</p><p>Therefore, when you open a shop in Amazon, you are actually not selling goods yourself, but the seller supplies goods to the platform, and the platform then helps sell goods. Amazon is not an administrative and judicial body, and has no power to freeze funds and goods. But because of Amazon's supplier logic, as long as it violates the supplier rules, it has to be kicked out of the directory.</p><p>\"In terms of values, brushing bills is a serious act of lying and fraud, and we all hate it. But we can't blindly stigmatize Chinese sellers. Everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon doesn't do well is that there is at least a hearing to give sellers a self-discrimination link. For sellers, the legitimate rights and interests that should be fought for must be fought for. If this time passes in silence, the future will probably be a nightmare. \" Zhou Jun said.</p><p>In the complaint process, Cindy Tai, vice president of Amazon Global and CEO of Amazon Global Store Asia Pacific, said that if a seller's account is deactivated because of violations, Amazon will provide sellers with an opportunity to appeal; As long as the seller proves that Amazon is wrong in judgment, or that the violation is only temporary or unintentional, and provides a solution to avoid another violation, these accounts will resume normal operation.</p><p>However, according to 36Kr from many sellers, the probability of successful appeal from Amazon is almost 0. At the same time, it is not very accurate to grasp the variety of changes in Amazon's rules. The main problem lies in the inefficiency of email communication.</p><p>Where's the way out?</p><p>For the whole cross-border e-commerce industry, it is still in a very early stage, and it is not even an industry. 36 Krypton found from a number of investment institutions visited that investors' optimistic judgment on the industry has not been affected in any way. What has been looking for is which enterprises can cross the cycle and have the consciousness and ability to come out of a new brand.</p><p>It is difficult to build a brand. What is needed is the comprehensive ability of enterprises to meet user needs, marketing methods, supply chain impact, etc. However, it is precisely because of the high threshold that it is even more scarce. Especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>And the success of Shein, which makes all investors very excited, look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>In the future, the first thing the industry has to reconstruct is consciousness. The past distribution path is already a dead end, and the earlier it is, the more opportunities for transformation. A big seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover dividends because he transformed his brand two years late. When he turned back and chased after him, he realized that the probability of success was extremely small. This is also the dividend path dependence left by the early stage of the industry. Because it was easier to make fast money in the past, they were reluctant to take a difficult and correct road with accumulation.</p><p>Then, find a subdivided vertical category to cultivate deeply. If it was a rough operation before, it must be refined now. Moreover, the threshold for category requirements has become higher. Why won't the previous simple rough mode work? Because consumers are awakening and have higher requirements for product quality and service, third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies to encourage brand determination to be stronger. In such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, introduce some high-quality technical talents. The epidemic is the beginning of cross-border e-commerce out of the circle, and the title is accelerated. The direct impact is that more entrepreneurs enter across the border. Industries that seem to have no threshold are actually not low, especially in the practical stage. Perhaps some pure business logic can still be passed through until now, but creating competitive barriers requires more high-quality talents to join. Especially on the technical side, as far as the current industry practitioners are concerned, there is still a lot of room for improvement.</p><p>Finally, be good at using the power of capital. All along, because cross-border e-commerce is easy to make money, there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, the desire for capital is relatively general, but if you sort out Anker Innovation and Shein, it will be obvious that the reason why these two companies have such a high valuation in the capital market, especially the high growth of the latter. It is inseparable from the help of capital. Capital is not good or bad, and the core lies in how to use it. Providing capital is only the underlying role, and greater empowerment will greatly help to become stronger and bigger.</p><p>From the perspective of any industry development cycle, the large-scale entry of capital is after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, some talents such as big factories, high education and rich industry experience are invested. Driven by technology, these innovative forces began to take a new path and reconstruct the business pattern. In other words, you don't accept investment and capital invests in your competitors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dffe01d72356572c6df4fa7726ddb0c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2169565516","content_text":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息不对称是亚马逊到底封了多少个中国店铺？开始最主流传言是有5万家，由于亚马逊官方一直保持不对外发声，这个数字就逐渐默认成事实。\n即使在亚马逊上周五召开的全球首个综合性卖家培训中心落户杭州活动上，对于封店数量还是三缄其口，不计划对外披露，希望冷处理就过去。\n被邀请的媒体们肯定不会放过这个难得机会，所以活生生把一场落户活动问答环节变成了封店潮发布会。以至于亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai都坦言，“今天这个发布本来是针对培训中心落户杭州的，只是没想到这么多媒体关注账号被封之事，所以就一起进行了首次回应。”\n据她透露，过去5个月，亚马逊关闭了约600个中国卖家品牌销售权限，涉及品牌数约3000个，包括一些大卖家。“这些卖家都有多次、反复、严重滥用评论行为，以及有许多其他违规行为。在过去一段时间，亚马逊对这些卖家进行过多次警告，他们也有多次申诉机会，甚至恢复了一些停用过的账号。但是这些卖家持续违规，所以这次决定终止和这些卖家的合作关系。”\n翻译过来就是，被封掉的卖家违规行为严重，亚马逊给了很多次机会仍屡教不改，所以被迫走了最后一步。\n“亚马逊只是公布了前五个月的数据，6、7、8月数据没有披露，这三个月也有很多店铺受影响。所以最终的数字一定比这个大很多。”一位资深从业者告诉36氪。\n对于严重依赖亚马逊的卖家来说，损失确实不小。比如曾经的华南城四少之有棵树，被封掉店铺340个，冻结资金1.3亿元。直接导致员工离职一半，收入下滑一半，净亏损超7亿元；另一大卖通拓科技被禁售关闭店铺数 54 个， 冻结资金 4143 万元。\n那么，亚马逊这次封店力度和强度为什么这么大？背后让我们真正反思的又有哪些？\n算法的进步\n事实上，行业内都知道一个潜规则。就是亚马逊每年固定有两次账号扫荡，一次是在7月左右的会员日（Prime Day），亚马逊为了自己这个大型促销活动通常会提前2个月关掉一些账号，也就是在4月底到5月初；另一次是在圣诞节的前2个月，即10月中旬或者11月初。\n因为看到了这个巨大的漏洞，所以很多卖家都有自己的应对之策。比如一个品牌授权50个店铺，封掉几个完全没有影响。“其实只要关掉的店铺没有超过一定比例，连老板都不需要知道这事。”某卖家告诉36氪。\n经过去年行业大爆炸后，今年所有卖家也都更乐观，完全没看到这件事背后真正的风险。其实早在3年前，亚马逊就在利用算法机器人在检测商品评论是真实还是虚假。曾经也封掉了很多自营Listing（产品页面），比如深圳某卖家的Listing就从1.7万缩减至1000，朋友圈也是一篇哀嚎。好在后来因为有误差太严重，亚马逊就没再大规模继续封停。\n但技术一直在进步，直到今年开始成熟许多。加上亚马逊改变了规则，不再是按照店铺逻辑评判，而是按照品牌维度逻辑。只要算法识别出有问题的品牌，也超过了一定比例，旗下店铺一律关停。所以才有了大量店铺群被封。\n36氪也注意到，亚马逊新任CEO安迪·杰西(Andy Jassy)，此前是亚马逊云计算CEO，不是电商负责人。这也证明亚马逊作为一家数据驱动公司，对于平台数据真实度的保护更加重视。\n“相信这次事件以后，很多卖家会开始采用白帽玩法。以及亚马逊也鼓励站内邀评，通过站内信邀请用户评价。如果产品和体验不好，邀回来的肯定是差评。所以这件事对整个生态是很有好处的。如果一直劣币驱逐良币，良币就不可能做起来。”上述卖家说道。\n供应商逻辑\n除了算法的持续迭代外，亚马逊对卖家定义也和国内天猫淘宝不一样。不一样地方在于，亚马逊是把平台上所有卖家视为供应商，自己相当于一个零售商。\n也就是说，卖家在亚马逊上的所有数字资产都归属亚马逊。即使你是苹果，是耐克，都是亚马逊的供应商。\n“可以这么理解，天猫类似于一个购物中心，亚马逊是一个百货公司。所以这就埋下了亚马逊的一些处罚机制伏笔。如果是天猫卖家违规，平台会动你的货和资金吗？亚马逊谈的更多是销售规模，天猫谈才GMV。”智云天工销售副总周骏告诉36氪。\n对于亚马逊就不同，一旦收了顾客的货款，就要为用户负责。只要发现卖家可能对顾客造成伤害，就会先把资金冻结，以应付后续会不会因为起诉承担连带责任。\n这也得到了Cindy Tai的证实，亚马逊资金冻结周期为90天，主要用来承担卖家过去客户的退款退货赔偿费用，以及其他未支付费用。90天后，如果没有违规会可申请取回。\n所以，在亚马逊开店，其实不是自己在卖货，而是卖家给平台供货，平台再帮忙卖货。亚马逊不是行政和司法机构，没权力冻结资金和货。但就因为亚马逊的供应商逻辑，因此只要违反了供应商规则，就得从名录里踢掉。\n“从价值观来讲，刷单是严重的撒谎、造假行为，我们都是深恶痛绝的。但也不能一味污名化中国卖家，行业里大家都在没日没夜干活。亚马逊做的不好的地方是，起码有个听证会，给卖家一个自辨环节。对于卖家来说，该争取的合法权益必须争取。如果这次默默过去，未来估计是噩梦。”周骏说。\n在申诉流程上，亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai表示，如果一个卖家账号因为违规行为被停用，亚马逊会为卖家提供申诉机会；只要这个卖家证明亚马逊判断有误，或者证明违规行为只是暂时或无意失误，并提供如何避免再次违规方案，这些账号会恢复正常运营。\n但据36氪从多位卖家处了解到，从亚马逊申诉成功的概率几乎为0。同时，对于亚马逊的规则变化多样把握也不是很准，其中主要问题在于邮件沟通这种方式效率很低。\n出路在哪儿？\n对于整个跨境电商行业来说，目前还处于很早期阶段，甚至都还谈不上一个行业。36氪从走访的多家投资机构中发现，投资人对行业的乐观判断未受到任何影响。一直在寻找的是，哪些企业能穿越周期，有意识有能力走出一个新品牌。\n塑造一个品牌很难，需要的是企业对用户需求、营销玩法、供应链影响等综合能力，但正因为门槛高，所以才更加稀缺。特别是安克创新和Shein的成功，让所有投资人都很兴奋，期待找到下一个这样的投资标的。\n在未来出路上，行业首先要重构的是意识。过往的铺货路径已经是死胡同，越早转型机会越多。行业某大卖家就是因为晚了2年转型品牌，才丧失了很多先发红利。等回头猛追才发现，成功概率微乎其微。这个也是行业早期阶段留下的红利路径依赖，因为过去方式赚快钱更容易，所以都不太愿意走一条有积累、难而正确的路。\n然后，找到一个细分的垂直品类深耕。如果说之前是粗旷式的经营，现在肯定要进行精细化运营。而且对品类要求门槛变得更高。为什么之前那种简单粗暴模式行不通？就是因为消费者在觉醒，对产品质量、服务要求变得更高，亚马逊这样的第三方也在逐渐改变策略，鼓励品牌决心更强。如此环境之下，没有精细化的能力，或许未来压根没有利润可言。\n其次，引入一些高素质的技术人才。疫情是跨境电商出圈的开始，封号是加速，带来的直接影响就是更多创业者跨界进入。看似没有门槛的行业，实则门槛不低，特别到了实操阶段。也许直到现在还能走通一部分纯生意逻辑，但是打造竞争壁垒这件事优势就需要更多高素质人才加入。特别是偏技术端，就目前行业从业者来看，能提升的空间还是很大。\n最后，善于借助资本力量。一直以来，因为跨境电商赚钱容易，甚至不缺现金流。所以对资本的欲望也相对一般，但如果梳理安克创新和Shein就会明显发现，这两家公司之所以在资本市场有这么高的估值，特别是后者的高增长。离不开资本的助力，资本无好坏，核心在于如何去利用。资本提供资金只是底层作用，更大的赋能对做强做大帮助大。\n从任何一个行业发展周期来看，资本大规模进入是在渗透率有一定提高之后。这时候投资的是一些大厂、高学历、丰富行业经验等人才，这些创新力量在技术推动下开始走出新的路子，以及重构商业格局。换句话说，你不接受投资，资本就会投资你的竞争对手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831981160,"gmtCreate":1629279719750,"gmtModify":1676529989266,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg&nbsp;","listText":"Omg&nbsp;","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831981160","repostId":"1147839184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839057313,"gmtCreate":1629110261732,"gmtModify":1676529933269,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"omg","listText":"omg","text":"omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839057313","repostId":"2159241181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807003704,"gmtCreate":1627985589408,"gmtModify":1703499105220,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807003704","repostId":"1146938180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146938180","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1627958922,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146938180?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-03 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The U.S. Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill is coming, how many industries will win or lose?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146938180","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"美国参议院一项斥资5500亿美元建设美国基础设施的计划将使高度依赖交通运输的行业受益，其中亚马逊、联邦快递和康卡斯特等公司高度将成最大的赢家。\n智通财经APP了解到，参议员们在上周末就该法案的最终文本","content":"<p>A $550 billion U.S. Senate plan to build U.S. infrastructure would benefit industries highly dependent on transportation, which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSK\">Comcast</a>The height of the company will be the biggest winner.</p><p>Senators are currently debating the bill after agreeing on its final text last weekend and are expected to vote on the bill as soon as this week to allow the House to take action on the bill after it adjourns in September, Zhitong Finance APP understands.</p><p>While freight carriers, airlines and internet providers will get a boost, the 2,702-page bill does not benefit the cryptocurrency industry, drugmakers and electric vehicle makers. The bill represents the largest public works spending by the U.S. federal government in decades and will be a major milestone in U.S. President Joe Biden's agenda. However, for this scheme, some people are happy and some are sad in various industries, and the contents of the plan are positive or negative.</p><p>\"Favored\" fields</p><p><b>Transportation company</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">United Parcel</a>Companies such as Services Inc. (UPS.US), as major users of highways, will benefit from an investment of about $110 billion to improve roads and bridges in the United States. These few companies and hundreds of others that use the highway system will benefit directly, without having to bear the investment costs of corporate tax or gas tax hikes. Republicans and Democrats agreed not to include the two companies in the agreement.</p><p><b>Airline vs. Amtrak</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Group (AAL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Company (DAL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>Company (LUV.US) would benefit from an approximately $25 billion bill that would plan to upgrade airports as well as reduce emissions and congestion. Like road users, these companies do not have to pay for these repairs directly. The plan also includes a $66 billion investment that will be used by Amtrak to upgrade Northeast Corridor routes, as well as new investments in rail and high-speed rail in other parts of the country.</p><p><b>Commodities Corp.</b></p><p>All these roads, bridges, pipelines, wires and railroads will require huge amounts of steel, cement, aluminum, copper, and many of these commodities have seen their prices skyrocket this year, including steel.</p><p><b>Internet Service Providers</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSA\">Comcast</a>And broadband providers such as Chartered Communications Corporation (CHTR.US) became the beneficiaries of infrastructure development, as senators refused to support the U.S. government's massive subsidies to companies that already have networks in place. The bill would provide U.S. subsidies to areas that lack essential services. Furthermore, the bill appears to bring more customers to broadband providers as it expands emergency broadband programs that help consumers pay for services.</p><p>The bill also requires providers to offer low-cost broadband options, but includes a ban on the government setting prices. Large vendors are already offering such items. Analysts have offered differing views on the provision, with some arguing that it has no material impact on suppliers and others arguing that companies could be at risk if the Biden administration tries to ensure more customers have access to cheap packages.</p><p><b>Nuclear energy</b></p><p>Under the bill, struggling nuclear power reactors would receive $6 billion in funding, which could help prevent nuclear power plants from collapsing in competition with natural gas and increasingly cheap generation from renewable sources. Right<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOJA\">Southern Co</a>. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXC\">Axron</a>The aid could be a good thing for uranium operators such as Electric Power (EXC.US) and uranium miners such as Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU.US).</p><p><b>Drug Benefit Management (PBM)</b></p><p>The infrastructure plan would delay a Trump administration regulatory rule designed to limit the use of drug rebates. Drug rebates are typically money that a manufacturer returns to a drug benefit administrator in exchange for the drugmaker receiving priority status on a prescription under a health insurance plan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>(CVS.US), Cigna (CI.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">Allied Health</a>Group (UNH.US) is the largest pharmaceutical benefit management company in the United States.</p><p>'Falling out of favour' field</p><p><b>Deficit hawks</b></p><p>The agreement largely sidestepped tax increases, the result of a political compromise between Democrats who did not want a fuel tax increase and Republicans who did not want a corporate tax increase. The new revenue to fund the bill comes from the legislative branch and is the equivalent of scraping money from the couch cushions of Congress. But this is not a long-term solution for ongoing investment, and some expenses may not end up covering the total cost of the bill.</p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>The bill would increase IRS oversight of cryptocurrency trading, which the Joint Committee on Taxation had estimated would raise $28 billion over a decade. Industry groups had lobbied heavily against the rule, saying it was impossible to comply with the provision. To improve tax compliance, the bill would require more companies to report digital asset transactions to the IRS. The problem, according to industry groups, is that some companies like, say, cryptocurrency miners, which seem to be subject to the new law, do not have the technical ability to gather the information they are required to report.</p><p><b>Electric Vehicles</b></p><p>Electric vehicles and charging stations would receive modest investments in the bill, but far less than the $174 billion Biden proposed earlier this year. The bill includes $7.5 billion for charging, which would add charging locations for EV owners as they roam the country, and another $2.5 billion for electric bus investments. Later this year, larger investments are still possible in electric vehicles in a Democratic-only bill that would invest trillions of dollars in energy and the economy, paid for by tax hikes on the wealthy and corporations.</p><p><b>Chemical pollution</b></p><p>One of the few tax increases in the bill is the reinstatement of the \"Superfund Polluter Tax,\" a tax for chemical companies to clean up hazardous waste sites. The measure is estimated to raise $14.5 billion over a decade. The tax was established in 1980 and had expired in 1995. Currently, the scheme will be taxed until 2031.</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical companies</b></p><p>The infrastructure package also includes a provision requiring drugmakers to refund Medicare funds to drugmakers for drug waste, drugs discarded by doctors due to over-packaging. In 2019, Medicare paid more than $752 million for discarded drugs, according to U.S. government data. The data shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>(AMGN.US), Celgene Corp. And Bristol-Myers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMY\">Squibb</a>(BMY.US) produced drugs that caused more than $150 million in waste.</p><p><b>Clean energy producers</b></p><p>The $8 billion tax credit for clean energy manufacturers, which has been a top priority for the Manchin and Biden administrations, is not included in the bill. Can be used by wind turbines,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>The subsidy, used by manufacturers of panels, geothermal energy equipment, fuel cells, electric vehicles, and power grids, has been touted by its supporters as a way to build a national clean energy manufacturing base in the United States. The grant appeared in the first recovery bill under the Obama administration, but the $2.3 billion set aside quickly ran out.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The U.S. Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill is coming, how many industries will win or lose?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe U.S. Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill is coming, how many industries will win or lose?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-03 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A $550 billion U.S. Senate plan to build U.S. infrastructure would benefit industries highly dependent on transportation, which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSK\">Comcast</a>The height of the company will be the biggest winner.</p><p>Senators are currently debating the bill after agreeing on its final text last weekend and are expected to vote on the bill as soon as this week to allow the House to take action on the bill after it adjourns in September, Zhitong Finance APP understands.</p><p>While freight carriers, airlines and internet providers will get a boost, the 2,702-page bill does not benefit the cryptocurrency industry, drugmakers and electric vehicle makers. The bill represents the largest public works spending by the U.S. federal government in decades and will be a major milestone in U.S. President Joe Biden's agenda. However, for this scheme, some people are happy and some are sad in various industries, and the contents of the plan are positive or negative.</p><p>\"Favored\" fields</p><p><b>Transportation company</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">United Parcel</a>Companies such as Services Inc. (UPS.US), as major users of highways, will benefit from an investment of about $110 billion to improve roads and bridges in the United States. These few companies and hundreds of others that use the highway system will benefit directly, without having to bear the investment costs of corporate tax or gas tax hikes. Republicans and Democrats agreed not to include the two companies in the agreement.</p><p><b>Airline vs. Amtrak</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Group (AAL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Company (DAL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>Company (LUV.US) would benefit from an approximately $25 billion bill that would plan to upgrade airports as well as reduce emissions and congestion. Like road users, these companies do not have to pay for these repairs directly. The plan also includes a $66 billion investment that will be used by Amtrak to upgrade Northeast Corridor routes, as well as new investments in rail and high-speed rail in other parts of the country.</p><p><b>Commodities Corp.</b></p><p>All these roads, bridges, pipelines, wires and railroads will require huge amounts of steel, cement, aluminum, copper, and many of these commodities have seen their prices skyrocket this year, including steel.</p><p><b>Internet Service Providers</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSA\">Comcast</a>And broadband providers such as Chartered Communications Corporation (CHTR.US) became the beneficiaries of infrastructure development, as senators refused to support the U.S. government's massive subsidies to companies that already have networks in place. The bill would provide U.S. subsidies to areas that lack essential services. Furthermore, the bill appears to bring more customers to broadband providers as it expands emergency broadband programs that help consumers pay for services.</p><p>The bill also requires providers to offer low-cost broadband options, but includes a ban on the government setting prices. Large vendors are already offering such items. Analysts have offered differing views on the provision, with some arguing that it has no material impact on suppliers and others arguing that companies could be at risk if the Biden administration tries to ensure more customers have access to cheap packages.</p><p><b>Nuclear energy</b></p><p>Under the bill, struggling nuclear power reactors would receive $6 billion in funding, which could help prevent nuclear power plants from collapsing in competition with natural gas and increasingly cheap generation from renewable sources. Right<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOJA\">Southern Co</a>. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXC\">Axron</a>The aid could be a good thing for uranium operators such as Electric Power (EXC.US) and uranium miners such as Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU.US).</p><p><b>Drug Benefit Management (PBM)</b></p><p>The infrastructure plan would delay a Trump administration regulatory rule designed to limit the use of drug rebates. Drug rebates are typically money that a manufacturer returns to a drug benefit administrator in exchange for the drugmaker receiving priority status on a prescription under a health insurance plan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>(CVS.US), Cigna (CI.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">Allied Health</a>Group (UNH.US) is the largest pharmaceutical benefit management company in the United States.</p><p>'Falling out of favour' field</p><p><b>Deficit hawks</b></p><p>The agreement largely sidestepped tax increases, the result of a political compromise between Democrats who did not want a fuel tax increase and Republicans who did not want a corporate tax increase. The new revenue to fund the bill comes from the legislative branch and is the equivalent of scraping money from the couch cushions of Congress. But this is not a long-term solution for ongoing investment, and some expenses may not end up covering the total cost of the bill.</p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>The bill would increase IRS oversight of cryptocurrency trading, which the Joint Committee on Taxation had estimated would raise $28 billion over a decade. Industry groups had lobbied heavily against the rule, saying it was impossible to comply with the provision. To improve tax compliance, the bill would require more companies to report digital asset transactions to the IRS. The problem, according to industry groups, is that some companies like, say, cryptocurrency miners, which seem to be subject to the new law, do not have the technical ability to gather the information they are required to report.</p><p><b>Electric Vehicles</b></p><p>Electric vehicles and charging stations would receive modest investments in the bill, but far less than the $174 billion Biden proposed earlier this year. The bill includes $7.5 billion for charging, which would add charging locations for EV owners as they roam the country, and another $2.5 billion for electric bus investments. Later this year, larger investments are still possible in electric vehicles in a Democratic-only bill that would invest trillions of dollars in energy and the economy, paid for by tax hikes on the wealthy and corporations.</p><p><b>Chemical pollution</b></p><p>One of the few tax increases in the bill is the reinstatement of the \"Superfund Polluter Tax,\" a tax for chemical companies to clean up hazardous waste sites. The measure is estimated to raise $14.5 billion over a decade. The tax was established in 1980 and had expired in 1995. Currently, the scheme will be taxed until 2031.</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical companies</b></p><p>The infrastructure package also includes a provision requiring drugmakers to refund Medicare funds to drugmakers for drug waste, drugs discarded by doctors due to over-packaging. In 2019, Medicare paid more than $752 million for discarded drugs, according to U.S. government data. The data shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>(AMGN.US), Celgene Corp. And Bristol-Myers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMY\">Squibb</a>(BMY.US) produced drugs that caused more than $150 million in waste.</p><p><b>Clean energy producers</b></p><p>The $8 billion tax credit for clean energy manufacturers, which has been a top priority for the Manchin and Biden administrations, is not included in the bill. Can be used by wind turbines,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>The subsidy, used by manufacturers of panels, geothermal energy equipment, fuel cells, electric vehicles, and power grids, has been touted by its supporters as a way to build a national clean energy manufacturing base in the United States. The grant appeared in the first recovery bill under the Obama administration, but the $2.3 billion set aside quickly ran out.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146938180","content_text":"美国参议院一项斥资5500亿美元建设美国基础设施的计划将使高度依赖交通运输的行业受益，其中亚马逊、联邦快递和康卡斯特等公司高度将成最大的赢家。\n智通财经APP了解到，参议员们在上周末就该法案的最终文本达成一致后，目前正在就该法案进行辩论，预计最快本周就该法案进行投票，以便众议院在9月份休会后就该法案采取行动。\n尽管货运公司、航空公司和互联网供应商将得到提振，但这份2702页的法案并不利于加密货币行业、制药商和电动汽车制造商。这项法案代表了美国联邦政府几十年来最大规模的公共工程支出，也将是美国总统拜登议程的一个重要里程碑。但对于该项方案，各行业领域有人欢喜有人悲，计划的内容利好或利空的领域不尽相同。\n“得宠”领域\n运输公司\n亚马逊、联邦快递和联合包裹服务公司(UPS.US)等公司作为公路的主要使用者，将受益于一项约1100亿美元用于改善美国的道路和桥梁的投资。这几家公司和其他数百家使用高速公路系统的公司将直接受益，而不必承担企业税或汽油税上调带来的投资成本。共和党和民主党同意不将这两家公司纳入协议。\n航空公司与美国铁路公司\n美国航空集团(AAL.US)、达美航空公司(DAL.US)和西南航空公司(LUV.US)将从约250亿美元的法案中受益，该法案将计划升级机场以及减少排放和拥堵。和公路使用者一样，这些公司无需直接支付这些维修费用。该计划还包括660亿美元的投资，该项投资将用于美国铁路公司(Amtrak)升级东北走廊线路，以及对美国其他地区的铁路和高速铁路进行新的投资。\n大宗商品公司\n所有这些道路、桥梁、管道、电线和铁路将需要大量的钢铁、水泥、铝、铜，其中许多大宗商品的价格今年已经飙升，包括钢铁。\n互联网服务提供商\n康卡斯特和特许通讯公司(CHTR.US)等宽带提供商成为了基础设施建设的受益者，因为参议员们拒绝支持美国政府向已经建立网络的公司提供大量补贴。该法案将向缺乏基本服务的地区提供美国补贴。此外，该法案似乎将为宽带提供商带来更多的客户，因为其扩大了帮助消费者支付服务费用的紧急宽带项目。\n该法案还要求供应商提供低成本的宽带选项，但包括禁止政府设定价格。大型供应商已经在提供此类项目。分析人士们对这一条款提出了不同的看法，有的人认为对供应商没有实质性影响，其他人认为如果拜登政府试图确保更多客户能够获得廉价套餐，公司可能存在风险。\n核能源\n根据该法案，陷入困境的核电反应堆商将获得60亿美元的资助，这可能有助于防止核电站在与天然气和越来越多的可再生能源廉价发电的竞争中倒闭。对Southern Co.和爱克斯龙电力(EXC.US)等铀矿运营商以及Energy Fuels, Inc.(UUUU.US)等铀矿企业来说，上述援助可能是一件好事。\n药品福利管理(PBM)\n这项基础设施计划将推迟特朗普政府的一项监管规定，该规定旨在限制药品回扣的使用。药品回扣通常是制造商向药品福利管理人员返还的资金，以换取制药商在医保计划的处方上获得优先地位。CVS健康(CVS.US)、信诺(CI.US)和联合健康集团(UNH.US)是美国最大的药品福利管理公司。\n“失宠”领域\n赤字鹰派\n协议在很大程度上避开了增税，这是不希望增加燃油税的民主党人和不希望增加企业税的共和党人达成政治妥协的结果。为该法案提供资金的新收入来自立法部门，相当于从国会的沙发垫里搜刮钱。但这对于持续投资来说，不是一个长期的解决方案，且一些支出可能最终无法覆盖账单的总成本。\n加密货币\n该法案将增加美国国税局对加密货币交易的监管，美国税收联合委员会(Joint Committee on Taxation)曾估计，加密货币交易将在十年内筹集280亿美元。行业团体曾大力游说反对这一规定，称不可能遵守该条款。为了提高税收合规性，该法案将要求更多的公司向IRS报告数字资产交易。根据行业组织的说法，问题在于，一些像比如加密货币矿工的公司，似乎会受到新法律的约束，但他们没有技术能力收集他们被要求报告的信息。\n电动汽车\n电动汽车和充电站将在法案中得到适度的投资，但远低于拜登今年早些时候提出的1740亿美元。该法案包括75亿美元用于充电，这将为电动车车主在全国漫游时增加充电地点，另外还有25亿美元用于电动公交车投资。今年晚些时候，在一项只针对民主党的法案中，电动汽车仍有可能获得更大规模的投资，该法案将向能源和经济领域投资数万亿美元，由对富人和企业增税来支付。\n化学污染\n法案中为数不多的增税措施之一是重新恢复“超级基金污染者税”，这是一项针对化学公司清理危险废物场所的税收。据估计，该措施将在十年内筹集145亿美元。这项税收于1980年设立，曾在1995年到期。目前，该计划将征税至2031年。\n制药公司\n该基础设施方案还包括一项条款，要求制药商为药物浪费，即医生因过度包装而丢弃的药物，向退还联邦医疗保险资金。根据美国政府数据，2019年，联邦医疗保险为被丢弃的药物支付了超过7.52亿美元。数据显示，安进(AMGN.US)、Celgene Corp.和百时美施贵宝(BMY.US)生产的药物造成了超过1.5亿美元的浪费。\n清洁能源生产商\n该法案中不包括对清洁能源制造商的80亿美元税收抵免，而该项税收抵免一直是曼钦和拜登政府的首要任务。能够被风能涡轮机、太阳能电池板、地热能源设备、燃料电池、电动汽车、电网的制造商所使用的这一补助，被其支持者吹捧为在美国建立一个国家清洁能源制造基地的一种方式。该项补助曾出现在奥巴马执政时期的第一个复苏法案中，但拨出的23亿美元很快就用完了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173751135,"gmtCreate":1626689639827,"gmtModify":1703763391600,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173751135","repostId":"1180989534","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153465560,"gmtCreate":1625043603550,"gmtModify":1703850768115,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153465560","repostId":"2147894632","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}