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2021-07-23
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Morgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face "significant adjustment risk"
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Compared with the number of stocks that hit a 52-week high, stocks that hit a 52-week low are increasing at a faster rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29167088202da4665dc02dc3eab60b3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of stocks currently above the S&P 50-day moving average is less than 50%, which is slightly higher than the previous low of 30%, but still low.<b>This suggests that some large constituent stocks may have made a major contribution to the rise of the S&P index, while the stock market did not rise across the board.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738e2ac698d44c189e9629ab7d15146f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wilson said that for indexes with lower quality constituents, the situation is much worse.</p><p>In addition, the report shows that weighted relative to market capitalization,<b>The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has experienced a sharp correction, which can draw the same conclusion as the deterioration of market breadth indicators.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccdb21dd8b2aad9077a296ffcb0a17c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Cyclical and defensive stocks have also diverged, and the market is increasingly beginning to shift from the former to the latter. Wilson said this shows that U.S. stocks are entering a more fragile period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0294e676dd9fad5a953972f4f51349d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In addition, in terms of P/E, Wilson pointed out that during the mid-cycle transition, forward P/E typically fall by 20%; Up to now, P/E has only dropped by 5%, while forward earnings have increased by nearly 20%. So so far, the S&P 500 is up about 15%.</p><p>Wilson believes that there are various signs that U.S. stocks are currently facing the risk of major adjustments. \"P/E should start to fall sharply in the next few months, bringing the S&P index closer to our year-end target of 3,900 points\", which will mean a 10% downside room.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face \"significant adjustment risk\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face \"significant adjustment risk\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 16:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Although the S&P 500 index hit a new high in the past month, the deterioration of the Market Breadth indicator (Market Breadth) has sounded an alarm to U.S. stocks, indicating that U.S. stocks may face \"significant correction risks.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief equity strategist Michael Wilson said in a recent research report that the current U.S. stock breadth indicator is the lowest in the past month. Compared with the number of stocks that hit a 52-week high, stocks that hit a 52-week low are increasing at a faster rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29167088202da4665dc02dc3eab60b3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of stocks currently above the S&P 50-day moving average is less than 50%, which is slightly higher than the previous low of 30%, but still low.<b>This suggests that some large constituent stocks may have made a major contribution to the rise of the S&P index, while the stock market did not rise across the board.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738e2ac698d44c189e9629ab7d15146f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wilson said that for indexes with lower quality constituents, the situation is much worse.</p><p>In addition, the report shows that weighted relative to market capitalization,<b>The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has experienced a sharp correction, which can draw the same conclusion as the deterioration of market breadth indicators.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccdb21dd8b2aad9077a296ffcb0a17c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Cyclical and defensive stocks have also diverged, and the market is increasingly beginning to shift from the former to the latter. Wilson said this shows that U.S. stocks are entering a more fragile period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0294e676dd9fad5a953972f4f51349d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In addition, in terms of P/E, Wilson pointed out that during the mid-cycle transition, forward P/E typically fall by 20%; Up to now, P/E has only dropped by 5%, while forward earnings have increased by nearly 20%. So so far, the S&P 500 is up about 15%.</p><p>Wilson believes that there are various signs that U.S. stocks are currently facing the risk of major adjustments. \"P/E should start to fall sharply in the next few months, bringing the S&P index closer to our year-end target of 3,900 points\", which will mean a 10% downside room.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636173\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636173","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153602247","content_text":"虽然标普500指数过去一个月创下新高，但市场广度指标（Market Breadth）恶化已对美股发出警报，显示美股或面临“重大调整风险”。\n摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最近研报中表示，当前美股广度指标为近一个月最低，相比创下52周新高的股票数量，创52周新低的股票以更快速度增加。\n\n同时，目前位于标普50日均线上方的股票数量低于50%，虽略高于此前30%的低点，但仍处低位。这表明，部分大型成分股可能对标普指数上升做了主要贡献，而股市并没有全面上升。\n\nWilson表示，而对于成分股质量较低的指数而言，情况还要糟糕得多。\n此外，报告显示，相对于市值加权，等权重的标普500指数已经出现大幅回调，也能与市场广度指标恶化得出相同结论。\n\n周期性和防御性股票也出现分化，市场愈发开始由前者向后者转换。Wilson称，这表明美股正进入一个更加脆弱的时期。\n\n此外，市盈率方面，Wilson指出，在周期中期过渡期间，远期市盈率通常会下降20%；而到当前市盈率只下降了5%，远期收益却上涨了近20%。因此目前为止，标普500指数上涨了约15%。\nWilson认为，种种迹象表明，美股当前面临重大调整风险，“市盈率应该会在未来几个月开始大幅下跌，使标普指数更接近我们的年终目标位3900点”，这将意味着10%的下跌空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":175611428,"gmtCreate":1627028262264,"gmtModify":1703482739719,"author":{"id":"3577573137638375","authorId":"3577573137638375","name":"88Money88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce1bb7384d5d5441b25cc67c7f99381e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577573137638375","idStr":"3577573137638375"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175611428","repostId":"2153602247","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153602247","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627027542,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153602247?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 16:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face \"significant adjustment risk\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153602247","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"虽然标普500指数过去一个月创下新高，但市场广度指标（Market Breadth）恶化已对美股发出警报，显示美股或面临“重大调整风险”。\n摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最近研","content":"<p>Although the S&P 500 index hit a new high in the past month, the deterioration of the Market Breadth indicator (Market Breadth) has sounded an alarm to U.S. stocks, indicating that U.S. stocks may face \"significant correction risks.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief equity strategist Michael Wilson said in a recent research report that the current U.S. stock breadth indicator is the lowest in the past month. Compared with the number of stocks that hit a 52-week high, stocks that hit a 52-week low are increasing at a faster rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29167088202da4665dc02dc3eab60b3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of stocks currently above the S&P 50-day moving average is less than 50%, which is slightly higher than the previous low of 30%, but still low.<b>This suggests that some large constituent stocks may have made a major contribution to the rise of the S&P index, while the stock market did not rise across the board.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738e2ac698d44c189e9629ab7d15146f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wilson said that for indexes with lower quality constituents, the situation is much worse.</p><p>In addition, the report shows that weighted relative to market capitalization,<b>The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has experienced a sharp correction, which can draw the same conclusion as the deterioration of market breadth indicators.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccdb21dd8b2aad9077a296ffcb0a17c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Cyclical and defensive stocks have also diverged, and the market is increasingly beginning to shift from the former to the latter. Wilson said this shows that U.S. stocks are entering a more fragile period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0294e676dd9fad5a953972f4f51349d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In addition, in terms of P/E, Wilson pointed out that during the mid-cycle transition, forward P/E typically fall by 20%; Up to now, P/E has only dropped by 5%, while forward earnings have increased by nearly 20%. So so far, the S&P 500 is up about 15%.</p><p>Wilson believes that there are various signs that U.S. stocks are currently facing the risk of major adjustments. \"P/E should start to fall sharply in the next few months, bringing the S&P index closer to our year-end target of 3,900 points\", which will mean a 10% downside room.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face \"significant adjustment risk\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This indicator sounds an alarm, and U.S. stocks face \"significant adjustment risk\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 16:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Although the S&P 500 index hit a new high in the past month, the deterioration of the Market Breadth indicator (Market Breadth) has sounded an alarm to U.S. stocks, indicating that U.S. stocks may face \"significant correction risks.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief equity strategist Michael Wilson said in a recent research report that the current U.S. stock breadth indicator is the lowest in the past month. Compared with the number of stocks that hit a 52-week high, stocks that hit a 52-week low are increasing at a faster rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29167088202da4665dc02dc3eab60b3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of stocks currently above the S&P 50-day moving average is less than 50%, which is slightly higher than the previous low of 30%, but still low.<b>This suggests that some large constituent stocks may have made a major contribution to the rise of the S&P index, while the stock market did not rise across the board.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738e2ac698d44c189e9629ab7d15146f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wilson said that for indexes with lower quality constituents, the situation is much worse.</p><p>In addition, the report shows that weighted relative to market capitalization,<b>The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has experienced a sharp correction, which can draw the same conclusion as the deterioration of market breadth indicators.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccdb21dd8b2aad9077a296ffcb0a17c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Cyclical and defensive stocks have also diverged, and the market is increasingly beginning to shift from the former to the latter. Wilson said this shows that U.S. stocks are entering a more fragile period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0294e676dd9fad5a953972f4f51349d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In addition, in terms of P/E, Wilson pointed out that during the mid-cycle transition, forward P/E typically fall by 20%; Up to now, P/E has only dropped by 5%, while forward earnings have increased by nearly 20%. So so far, the S&P 500 is up about 15%.</p><p>Wilson believes that there are various signs that U.S. stocks are currently facing the risk of major adjustments. \"P/E should start to fall sharply in the next few months, bringing the S&P index closer to our year-end target of 3,900 points\", which will mean a 10% downside room.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636173\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636173","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153602247","content_text":"虽然标普500指数过去一个月创下新高，但市场广度指标（Market Breadth）恶化已对美股发出警报，显示美股或面临“重大调整风险”。\n摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最近研报中表示，当前美股广度指标为近一个月最低，相比创下52周新高的股票数量，创52周新低的股票以更快速度增加。\n\n同时，目前位于标普50日均线上方的股票数量低于50%，虽略高于此前30%的低点，但仍处低位。这表明，部分大型成分股可能对标普指数上升做了主要贡献，而股市并没有全面上升。\n\nWilson表示，而对于成分股质量较低的指数而言，情况还要糟糕得多。\n此外，报告显示，相对于市值加权，等权重的标普500指数已经出现大幅回调，也能与市场广度指标恶化得出相同结论。\n\n周期性和防御性股票也出现分化，市场愈发开始由前者向后者转换。Wilson称，这表明美股正进入一个更加脆弱的时期。\n\n此外，市盈率方面，Wilson指出，在周期中期过渡期间，远期市盈率通常会下降20%；而到当前市盈率只下降了5%，远期收益却上涨了近20%。因此目前为止，标普500指数上涨了约15%。\nWilson认为，种种迹象表明，美股当前面临重大调整风险，“市盈率应该会在未来几个月开始大幅下跌，使标普指数更接近我们的年终目标位3900点”，这将意味着10%的下跌空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
