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2021-09-17

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2021-09-10

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2021-09-09

Yy

Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!

2021-09-03

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With multiple risks coming, will U.S. stocks usher in big turmoil in September?

2021-08-27

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2021-08-25

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After buying the bottom of JD.com, "Sister Wood" expressed her position: she is not pessimistic about China

2021-08-12

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[Change] Micron Technology fell more than 7% after being downgraded by Morgan Stanley

2021-08-07

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2021-07-30

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2021-07-30

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2021-07-26

9

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2021-07-21

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2021-07-18

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2021-07-15

Okok

Summary of key points from Powell's semi-annual monetary policy hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives

2021-07-08

err

The "anchor of global asset pricing" plummeted, what happened?

2021-06-29

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U.S. stocks in the first half of the year "horses run and dance", but people are preparing to run

2021-06-21

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-09

Oao

"Tax increase + high inflation", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks

2021-06-07

？

When investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?

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15:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple indicators in the United States alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815296966,"gmtCreate":1630679166755,"gmtModify":1676530374930,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815296966","repostId":"1124577665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124577665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630636929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124577665?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With multiple risks coming, will U.S. stocks usher in big turmoil in September?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124577665","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"伴随9月到来，美股市场正面对着越来越多的潜在风险。","content":"<p><i>Since the end of World War II, the probability of the S&P 500 rising in September is only 45%. In addition to the historical background, there are also a series of major events with considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect the Fed's policy on September 22. The meeting has affected their plans to start reducing bond purchases within this year.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beafe1f53440c121923a321284d7b5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After seven consecutive months of rising, with the arrival of September, the U.S. stock market is facing more and more potential risks. Unfortunately, this month happens to be \"notorious\" in the history of the stock market-the worst month in history.</p><p>According to CFRA data, since the end of World War II, the probability of the S&P 500 rising in September is only 45%. In all these September months, the index fell by an average of 0.56%, ranking last among all months-in fact, except September and February, the average return rate of the index was positive.</p><p>At present, the overall view of Wall Street strategists is that although it is not certain that a setback or consolidation is imminent, the risks are undoubtedly accumulating. Specifically, changes in Fed policy, the accelerated spread of the Delta variant virus, and political risks may have a negative impact on the U.S. stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders said that although it is too mechanical to assume that the performance in September 2021 will follow historical trends, the risks are really hard to ignore. \"Are there a lot of risks, and at some point in the future, one of them may cause a 3% or 4% decline in the market? The answer is of course yes. Whether that time node may be September, the answer is of course yes.\"</p><p>A detailed analysis of historical data will reveal that if it is September of the first year of the president's term, the performance of U.S. stocks is even worse than average. On average, in September of these years, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.73%. CFRA also found that historical records show that if the S&P 500 index hits new highs in both July and August-just like this year-the index has only a 43% probability of rising in the following September, with an average performance of 0.74%.</p><p>In mid-August this year, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 3%, and as of the end of August, the year-to-date increase was 20.4%.</p><p><b>Risks are brewing</b></p><p>Specific to September this year, in addition to the historical background, there are also a series of major events with considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect The policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 22 affected the formulation of their plans to start reducing bond purchases within this year.</p><p>According to Dow Jones data, the current general expectation of economists is that the number of new jobs will reach 750,000 in August. Market observers explained that if the final results greatly exceed this expectation, the reduction of the Fed's original $120 billion per month bond purchase program may be intensified and accelerated, and they will most likely do so in September. The decision to reduce the tapering to begin within the year was announced at the meeting. On the contrary, if the employment data only meets expectations, or even falls short of expectations, the start time of the Fed's tapering may be delayed by several months.</p><p>Sanders' judgment is that the relatively weak employment data is not necessarily bad news for the U.S. stock market, because this data means that the Fed may delay the start of the reduction and conduct the reduction operation in a more cautious rather than drastic way. Although Fed President Jerome Powell emphasized last week that tapering the bond purchase program and rate hike are completely unrelated things, most market observers still tend to regard the former as a precursor to the latter.</p><p>Sanders explained that the future decisions of the Fed will depend on various economic data that are constantly being released. This means that the development of the epidemic and the corresponding impact on the economy will continue to be important factors affecting their decision-making. \"The final conclusion is indeed regrettable. In the final analysis, the performance of the market depends on the face of the epidemic.\"</p><p><b>Can normal return?</b></p><p>From another perspective, September is also regarded by many observers as a delicate time node that affects American emotions, that is, as students return to school, everyone will somewhat feel that life is returning to normal. At the same time, with the return of parents of school-age children to the labor force, and the official expiration of additional unemployment benefits, September is also an important node when the labor shortage situation is expected to improve.</p><p>However, due to the spread of the Delta variant virus, the U.S. economy is facing the threat of new variables. For example, many companies have delayed reopening their doors. At the same time, with the rise of the epidemic, many retail and catering enterprises have also suffered another decline in consumer passenger flow.</p><p>Julian Emanuel, head of BITG's equity and derivatives strategy department, said bluntly: \"Consumer confidence has been greatly shaken. This is not closely related to the specific situation of the epidemic. The key is that we had all expected that by September, life will basically return to normal.\"</p><p>Sanders of Charles Schwab said that for the U.S. stock market, under normal circumstances, the number one decider of the market in September should be the Federal Reserve, but at the same time, the epidemic also has the possibility of forcibly \"stealing the show\" and becoming the protagonist.</p><p>\"I think the back-to-school season this time is not as simple as psychological factors.\" Sanders said. \"People will be watching closely whether schools are kept open in places where vaccination rates are relatively low. It will cause further deterioration. Obviously, this is an epidemic risk that is closely related to time.\"</p><p>Emanuel said the market will also continue to pay close attention to the Fed to determine exactly how they are continuing to advance their bond purchase tapering plan.</p><p>\"All this is one of the biggest concerns at the September meeting. The reason why the market wants the Fed to announce the reduction of its operating schedule in advance is because if they don't, it probably means that they have already understood the impact of the epidemic on the economy. and the damage to the labor market (more than expected).\"</p><p>Another economic data that may impact the market in September is inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report will be released on September 14. Emmanuel explained that if inflation continues to be high, it could push up Treasury Bond yields, which is undoubtedly bad news for the stock market.</p><p>Emanuel said that the market will also pay attention to the time when the United States hits the debt ceiling and whether the infrastructure bill with a scale of several trillions of dollars can be passed. Congress is expected to start deliberating the latter in September.</p><p>Finally, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan also poses additional risks. Emmanuel said: \"All kinds of events happen one after another, which is likely to have long-term political consequences. If there are signs that there will be greater local turmoil, its impact will be intensified.\"</p><p><b>The worst month</b></p><p>Emmanuel's own expectation is that there will be a very impressive sell-off in the U.S. stock market in September. He pointed out that historical records show that September and October are often full of volatility.</p><p>\"Of course, this is not to say that the stock market is bound to fall, but from our point of view, the sentiment that as long as the Fed does not rate hike, the market will not fall is too widespread, and market participants are too complacent.\"</p><p>He believes that investors should take serious measures to protect themselves against possible declines, and suggests that everyone consider using options tools. \"We're not saying that you should be full of fear. What we're saying is that you have to be cautious. Your portfolio has made a considerable profit, and it's best to keep it.\"</p><p>Sanders also said that in fact, large-scale consolidation is commonplace for the market, but some investors feel that today's market is more resilient than before because mainstream indexes are constantly setting records. She said that what she was most worried about was all kinds of speculative bubbles. \"In areas such as MEME stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and virtual currencies, rotational consolidation and bear markets have actually emerged.\"</p><p>Sanders said that among the major sectors of the S&P 500 index, she currently gives only one sector of medical care an outperform rating. At present, she is looking for investment opportunities mainly based on factors, not sectors. For example, she is now studying the quality of different stocks, looking for good news such as free cash flow or higher earnings expectations.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With multiple risks coming, will U.S. stocks usher in big turmoil in September?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith multiple risks coming, will U.S. stocks usher in big turmoil in September?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Since the end of World War II, the probability of the S&P 500 rising in September is only 45%. In addition to the historical background, there are also a series of major events with considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect the Fed's policy on September 22. The meeting has affected their plans to start reducing bond purchases within this year.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beafe1f53440c121923a321284d7b5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After seven consecutive months of rising, with the arrival of September, the U.S. stock market is facing more and more potential risks. Unfortunately, this month happens to be \"notorious\" in the history of the stock market-the worst month in history.</p><p>According to CFRA data, since the end of World War II, the probability of the S&P 500 rising in September is only 45%. In all these September months, the index fell by an average of 0.56%, ranking last among all months-in fact, except September and February, the average return rate of the index was positive.</p><p>At present, the overall view of Wall Street strategists is that although it is not certain that a setback or consolidation is imminent, the risks are undoubtedly accumulating. Specifically, changes in Fed policy, the accelerated spread of the Delta variant virus, and political risks may have a negative impact on the U.S. stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders said that although it is too mechanical to assume that the performance in September 2021 will follow historical trends, the risks are really hard to ignore. \"Are there a lot of risks, and at some point in the future, one of them may cause a 3% or 4% decline in the market? The answer is of course yes. Whether that time node may be September, the answer is of course yes.\"</p><p>A detailed analysis of historical data will reveal that if it is September of the first year of the president's term, the performance of U.S. stocks is even worse than average. On average, in September of these years, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.73%. CFRA also found that historical records show that if the S&P 500 index hits new highs in both July and August-just like this year-the index has only a 43% probability of rising in the following September, with an average performance of 0.74%.</p><p>In mid-August this year, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 3%, and as of the end of August, the year-to-date increase was 20.4%.</p><p><b>Risks are brewing</b></p><p>Specific to September this year, in addition to the historical background, there are also a series of major events with considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect The policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 22 affected the formulation of their plans to start reducing bond purchases within this year.</p><p>According to Dow Jones data, the current general expectation of economists is that the number of new jobs will reach 750,000 in August. Market observers explained that if the final results greatly exceed this expectation, the reduction of the Fed's original $120 billion per month bond purchase program may be intensified and accelerated, and they will most likely do so in September. The decision to reduce the tapering to begin within the year was announced at the meeting. On the contrary, if the employment data only meets expectations, or even falls short of expectations, the start time of the Fed's tapering may be delayed by several months.</p><p>Sanders' judgment is that the relatively weak employment data is not necessarily bad news for the U.S. stock market, because this data means that the Fed may delay the start of the reduction and conduct the reduction operation in a more cautious rather than drastic way. Although Fed President Jerome Powell emphasized last week that tapering the bond purchase program and rate hike are completely unrelated things, most market observers still tend to regard the former as a precursor to the latter.</p><p>Sanders explained that the future decisions of the Fed will depend on various economic data that are constantly being released. This means that the development of the epidemic and the corresponding impact on the economy will continue to be important factors affecting their decision-making. \"The final conclusion is indeed regrettable. In the final analysis, the performance of the market depends on the face of the epidemic.\"</p><p><b>Can normal return?</b></p><p>From another perspective, September is also regarded by many observers as a delicate time node that affects American emotions, that is, as students return to school, everyone will somewhat feel that life is returning to normal. At the same time, with the return of parents of school-age children to the labor force, and the official expiration of additional unemployment benefits, September is also an important node when the labor shortage situation is expected to improve.</p><p>However, due to the spread of the Delta variant virus, the U.S. economy is facing the threat of new variables. For example, many companies have delayed reopening their doors. At the same time, with the rise of the epidemic, many retail and catering enterprises have also suffered another decline in consumer passenger flow.</p><p>Julian Emanuel, head of BITG's equity and derivatives strategy department, said bluntly: \"Consumer confidence has been greatly shaken. This is not closely related to the specific situation of the epidemic. The key is that we had all expected that by September, life will basically return to normal.\"</p><p>Sanders of Charles Schwab said that for the U.S. stock market, under normal circumstances, the number one decider of the market in September should be the Federal Reserve, but at the same time, the epidemic also has the possibility of forcibly \"stealing the show\" and becoming the protagonist.</p><p>\"I think the back-to-school season this time is not as simple as psychological factors.\" Sanders said. \"People will be watching closely whether schools are kept open in places where vaccination rates are relatively low. It will cause further deterioration. Obviously, this is an epidemic risk that is closely related to time.\"</p><p>Emanuel said the market will also continue to pay close attention to the Fed to determine exactly how they are continuing to advance their bond purchase tapering plan.</p><p>\"All this is one of the biggest concerns at the September meeting. The reason why the market wants the Fed to announce the reduction of its operating schedule in advance is because if they don't, it probably means that they have already understood the impact of the epidemic on the economy. and the damage to the labor market (more than expected).\"</p><p>Another economic data that may impact the market in September is inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report will be released on September 14. Emmanuel explained that if inflation continues to be high, it could push up Treasury Bond yields, which is undoubtedly bad news for the stock market.</p><p>Emanuel said that the market will also pay attention to the time when the United States hits the debt ceiling and whether the infrastructure bill with a scale of several trillions of dollars can be passed. Congress is expected to start deliberating the latter in September.</p><p>Finally, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan also poses additional risks. Emmanuel said: \"All kinds of events happen one after another, which is likely to have long-term political consequences. If there are signs that there will be greater local turmoil, its impact will be intensified.\"</p><p><b>The worst month</b></p><p>Emmanuel's own expectation is that there will be a very impressive sell-off in the U.S. stock market in September. He pointed out that historical records show that September and October are often full of volatility.</p><p>\"Of course, this is not to say that the stock market is bound to fall, but from our point of view, the sentiment that as long as the Fed does not rate hike, the market will not fall is too widespread, and market participants are too complacent.\"</p><p>He believes that investors should take serious measures to protect themselves against possible declines, and suggests that everyone consider using options tools. \"We're not saying that you should be full of fear. What we're saying is that you have to be cautious. Your portfolio has made a considerable profit, and it's best to keep it.\"</p><p>Sanders also said that in fact, large-scale consolidation is commonplace for the market, but some investors feel that today's market is more resilient than before because mainstream indexes are constantly setting records. She said that what she was most worried about was all kinds of speculative bubbles. \"In areas such as MEME stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and virtual currencies, rotational consolidation and bear markets have actually emerged.\"</p><p>Sanders said that among the major sectors of the S&P 500 index, she currently gives only one sector of medical care an outperform rating. At present, she is looking for investment opportunities mainly based on factors, not sectors. For example, she is now studying the quality of different stocks, looking for good news such as free cash flow or higher earnings expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lN2TWV92hFLiXRdDdT09dw\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598c94c6b6db0e39a9e952fd336db660","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lN2TWV92hFLiXRdDdT09dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124577665","content_text":"自第二次世界大战结束以来，标普500指数在9月间上涨的概率只有45%。除了历史背景之外，还有一系列重大事件，背后都隐藏着可观的风险，比如本周五将发布的8月就业报告，后者的具体表现很可能将直接影响到联储9月22日的政策会议，影响到他们在今年年内开始缩减购债操作的计划制定工作。\n\n\n在连续七个月上涨之后，伴随9月到来，美股市场正面对着越来越多的潜在风险，而不巧的是，这个月份在股市历史上恰好是“臭名昭著”——史上表现最差月份。\nCFRA的数据显示，自第二次世界大战结束以来，标普500指数在9月间上涨的概率只有45%，在所有这些9月当中,指数平均下跌0.56%，在所有月份当中排名倒数第一——事实上，除了9月和2月，其他月份当中，指数的平均回报率都是正数。\n目前，华尔街策略师们的整体看法是，虽然还不能确定一场回挫或者盘整已经迫在眉睫，但是风险毋庸置疑地正在不断累积。具体来说，诸如联储政策变化，德尔塔变种病毒的加速传播，以及政治风险等，都可能会使美股市场受到负面冲击。\n嘉信理财首席投资策略师桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）表示，虽然现在就假定2021年9月的表现会追随历史趋势未免过于机械，但是风险确实难以忽视。“是否存在着大量的风险，到了未来某一时刻，其中之一就可能造成市场3%或者4%的回挫？答案当然是肯定的。那个时间节点是否可能是9月，答案当然还是肯定的。”\n对历史数据进行细化分析就会发现，如果是总统任期第一年的9月，美股的表现甚至还要比平均水准更加糟糕。平均而言，在这些年头的9月当中，标普500指数的跌幅达到了0.73%。CFRA还发现，历史记录显示，如果标普500指数在7月和8月当中都创下了新高——就像今年一样——则指数在接下来的9月当中只有43%概率上涨，平均表现是下跌0.74%。\n今年8月当中，标普500指数上涨了近3%，截至8月底，年度迄今为止涨幅为20.4%。\n风险在酝\n具体到今年的9月，除了历史背景之外，还有一系列重大事件，背后都隐藏着可观的风险，比如本周五将发布的8月就业报告，后者的具体表现很可能将直接影响到联储9月22日的政策会议，影响到他们在今年年内开始缩减购债操作的计划制定工作。\n道琼斯的数据显示，经济学家们目前的普遍预期是，8月间新增就业人数将达到75万。市场观察家们解释说，如果最终发布的结果大幅度超出这个预期，联储原本每月1200亿美元的购债计划的缩减工作就可能会加大力度，加快速度，他们大概率会在9月会议上宣布缩减在年内开始的决定。相反，如果就业数据只是符合预期，甚至不及预期，联储的缩减启动时间点就可能往后拖若干个月。\n桑德斯的判断是，相对疲软的就业数据其实未必就是美股市场的坏消息，因为这数据就意味着联储可能会推迟缩减开始的时间，并且以更小心谨慎，而非大刀阔斧的方式进行缩减操作。虽然联储主席鲍威尔上周强调，缩减购债计划与加息是完全不相干的两件事，但是大多数市场观察家还是倾向于将前者视为后者的先声。\n桑德斯解释说，联储未来的决策都要看不断出炉的各种经济数据来确定。这也就意味着，疫情的发展，以及经济受到的相应影响，将持续成为影响他们决策的重要因素。“最后结论确实让人遗憾，市场的表现归根结底还是要看疫情的脸色。”\n常态能否归来\n从另外一个角度，9月也被许多观察家们视作一个影响美国人情绪的微妙时间节点，即，伴随学生返校，大家会多少产生一些生活正在回归常态的感觉。与此同时，伴随学龄儿童的家长得以重新回归劳动力大军，以及失业救济额外补贴正式宣告到期，9月还是一个劳动力短缺局面预计将得到改善的重要节点。\n只不过，由于德尔塔变种病毒的传播，美国经济正面临着全新变数的威胁，比如不少企业都已经推迟了重新开门的时间。与此同时，伴随疫情的抬头，众多零售和餐饮企业也都遭遇了消费客流再度回落的打击。\nBITG股票和衍生产品策略部门负责人伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）直言不讳：“消费者信心已经发生了重大动摇。这与疫情的具体情况倒是关系没有密切，关键在于，我们原本都曾经预计，到了9月，生活就将基本回归常态了。”\n嘉信理财的桑德斯表示，对于美股市场而言，正常情况下，9月行情的头号决定者应该是联储，但是与此同时，疫情也完全有强行“抢戏”，成为主角的可能性。\n“我认为，这一次的返校季节可不是单纯的心理因素那么简单。”桑德斯表示，“人们将密切关注的是，在那些疫苗接种率相对较低的地方，学校保持开放状态，是否会造成局面的进一步恶化。显然，这是一项与时间密切相关的疫情风险。”\n伊曼纽尔表示，市场还将继续密切关注联储，以确定他们到底是如何持续推进其购债缩减计划的。\n“这一切正是9月会议上，人们最关注的问题之一，市场之所以希望联储提前宣布缩减操作日程表，是因为如果他们没有宣布，就很可能是意味着他们已经了解了疫情对经济和劳动力市场的损害（超过了预期）。”\n9月另外一种可能给市场造成冲击的经济数据则是通货膨胀数据。消费者价格指数报告将在9月14日发布。伊曼纽尔解释说，如果通货膨胀继续高企，就可能推高国债收益率，而这对于股市无疑是个坏消息。\n伊曼纽尔表示，市场同时还会关注美国触及债务上限的时间点，以及规模达到若干万亿美元的基础设施法案是否能够通过，预计国会9月就将展开对后者的审议。\n最后，美国从阿富汗的撤军也带来了额外的风险。伊曼纽尔表示：“各种事件接二连三地发生，很可能会造成较为长期的政治后果，如果有迹象显示当地将发生更大的动荡，则其影响还将变本加厉。”\n最糟的月份\n伊曼纽尔自己的预期是，9月间，美股市场上将发生一波非常可观的抛售行情，他指出，历史记录显示，9月和10月经常都是充满波动的。\n“当然这不是说股市必然要下跌，但是从我们的角度看去，认定只要联储不加息，市场就不会下跌的情绪弥漫太过广泛，市场参与者太过志得意满了。”\n他认为投资者应该认真采取措施，针对可能的下跌保护好自己，并建议大家考虑使用期权工具。“我们并不是说，你理应满怀恐惧。我们要说的是，你必须谨慎从事。你的投资组合已经取得了可观的利得，最好能够保住。”\n桑德斯也说，其实大规模的盘整对于市场而言本来就是家常便饭，只是一些投资者因为主流指数现在都在不断创下纪录，而觉得今日市场的弹力超过以往而已。她说，自己最担心的就是各种投机泡沫。“在MEME股票、特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）和虚拟货币等领域，轮动性盘整和熊市其实已经出现。”\n桑德斯说，在标普500指数各大板块当中，她目前只给予了医疗卫生一个板块以超越表现评级。目前，她寻找投资机会主要是基于因素，而不是基于板块了。比如，她现在正在研究各只不同个股的品质，寻找自由现金流或者盈利预期调升等利好消息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819527123,"gmtCreate":1630079070662,"gmtModify":1676530220201,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/819527123","repostId":"1131853650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837322111,"gmtCreate":1629858545033,"gmtModify":1676530154125,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837322111","repostId":"2162387390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2162387390","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629858360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162387390?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-25 10:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"After buying the bottom of JD.com, \"Sister Wood\" expressed her position: she is not pessimistic about China","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162387390","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"几乎已经清仓中概股的ARK基金，本周开始出手抄底买入京东股票，该基金创始人“木头姐”最新表态称：对中国并不悲观。\nArk Investment创始人、有科技股女股神之称的Cathie Wood周二在接","content":"<p>ARK Fund, which has almost cleared its positions in Chinese concept stocks, began to buy at the bottom this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Stocks, the founder of the fund \"Sister Wood\" lately stated that she is not pessimistic about China.</p><p>Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment and known as the female goddess of technology stocks, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday:</p><p><b>\"In the long run, I'm not pessimistic about China because I think they are a very entrepreneurial society.\"</b>Wood said that the Chinese government is formulating more rules and regulations, but the government's purpose is not to stop growth and progress.</p><p>The latest disclosed data shows that ARK's automatic &<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Technology ETF (ARKQ) bought more than 160,000 shares of JD ADR on Monday,<b>It reversed the continuous selling trend since the end of July.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba01ecec77377314f0598c9caadf2456\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>As of Tuesday, ARKQ held $86.17 million in JD.com shares, accounting for 3.22% of its position in the ETF, making it its ninth largest position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3dccaf72955102a69b8a5080d87c3db\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, JD.com's stock has fallen by nearly 13%. After announcing a strong earnings report on Monday, JD.com's share price rebounded strongly, rising 14% overnight.<b>ARKQ also conducted bottom-hunting after JD.com announced its eye-catching financial report.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d796d9299aa03662c774ddd14756d6c0\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that financial report data showed that JD.com's revenue in the second quarter was 253.8 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 244.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.23%; The adjusted income per ADS in the second quarter was 2.90 yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2.12 yuan;</p><p>In terms of active users, as of June 30, 2021, the number of active purchasing users of JD.com in the past 12 months reached 532 million, exceeding the market estimate of 520.9 million, a net increase of 115 million compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 32 million in a single quarter. The highest increase in history.</p><p>The past has been a year of ups and downs for Wood and Ark. In 2020, under the east wind of the bull market in U.S. technology stocks, ARK's flagship fund ARKK achieved an astonishing return of 149%.</p><p><b>However, since entering 2021, with the correction of technology stocks, ARKK's performance has been sluggish. It has fallen by 2.9% this year. It was once redeemed by investors and was shorted by hedge funds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a0e581ee3758d2aa1dfdc00b1114d3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After buying the bottom of JD.com, \"Sister Wood\" expressed her position: she is not pessimistic about China</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter buying the bottom of JD.com, \"Sister Wood\" expressed her position: she is not pessimistic about China\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>ARK Fund, which has almost cleared its positions in Chinese concept stocks, began to buy at the bottom this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Stocks, the founder of the fund \"Sister Wood\" lately stated that she is not pessimistic about China.</p><p>Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment and known as the female goddess of technology stocks, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday:</p><p><b>\"In the long run, I'm not pessimistic about China because I think they are a very entrepreneurial society.\"</b>Wood said that the Chinese government is formulating more rules and regulations, but the government's purpose is not to stop growth and progress.</p><p>The latest disclosed data shows that ARK's automatic &<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Technology ETF (ARKQ) bought more than 160,000 shares of JD ADR on Monday,<b>It reversed the continuous selling trend since the end of July.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba01ecec77377314f0598c9caadf2456\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>As of Tuesday, ARKQ held $86.17 million in JD.com shares, accounting for 3.22% of its position in the ETF, making it its ninth largest position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3dccaf72955102a69b8a5080d87c3db\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, JD.com's stock has fallen by nearly 13%. After announcing a strong earnings report on Monday, JD.com's share price rebounded strongly, rising 14% overnight.<b>ARKQ also conducted bottom-hunting after JD.com announced its eye-catching financial report.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d796d9299aa03662c774ddd14756d6c0\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that financial report data showed that JD.com's revenue in the second quarter was 253.8 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 244.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.23%; The adjusted income per ADS in the second quarter was 2.90 yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2.12 yuan;</p><p>In terms of active users, as of June 30, 2021, the number of active purchasing users of JD.com in the past 12 months reached 532 million, exceeding the market estimate of 520.9 million, a net increase of 115 million compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 32 million in a single quarter. The highest increase in history.</p><p>The past has been a year of ups and downs for Wood and Ark. In 2020, under the east wind of the bull market in U.S. technology stocks, ARK's flagship fund ARKK achieved an astonishing return of 149%.</p><p><b>However, since entering 2021, with the correction of technology stocks, ARKK's performance has been sluggish. It has fallen by 2.9% this year. It was once redeemed by investors and was shorted by hedge funds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a0e581ee3758d2aa1dfdc00b1114d3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638794\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638794","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162387390","content_text":"几乎已经清仓中概股的ARK基金，本周开始出手抄底买入京东股票，该基金创始人“木头姐”最新表态称：对中国并不悲观。\nArk Investment创始人、有科技股女股神之称的Cathie Wood周二在接受彭博采访中表示：\n\n“从长远来看，我对中国并不悲观，因为我认为他们是一个非常具有创业精神的社会。”\n\nWood称，中国政府正在制定更多的规章制度，但政府的目的并不想阻止增长和进步。\n最新披露的数据显示，ARK旗下的自动&机器人技术ETF (ARKQ)于周一买入了超过16万股的京东ADR，扭转了7月底以来连续抛售的态势。\n\n截至周二，ARKQ持有8617万美元的京东股票，在该ETF中的持仓占比为3.22%，为其第九大持仓。\n\n年初至今，京东股票累计下跌了近13%。在周一公布了强劲财报后，京东股价强势反弹，隔夜大涨14%。ARKQ也是在京东公布亮眼财报后进行了抄底。\n\n华尔街见闻此前提及，财报数据显示，京东第二季度营收2538亿元，超市场预期2440.26亿元，同比增长26.23%；第二季度调整后每ADS收益2.90元，超市场预期的2.12元；\n在活跃用户方面， 截至2021年6月30日，京东过去12个月的活跃购买用户数达到5.32亿，超市场预估的5.209亿，较去年同期净增了1.15亿，单季新增3200万创下历史最高增量。\n对Wood和Ark来说，过去是跌宕起伏的一年。2020年在美国科技股大牛市的东风下，方舟旗舰基金ARKK取得了149%的惊人回报。\n但进入2021年来，随着科技股回调，ARKK表现萎靡，今年以来累计下跌2.9%，一度遭遇投资者大举赎回，并被对冲基金争相做空。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"JD":0.9,"ARKF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894905766,"gmtCreate":1628780530855,"gmtModify":1676529854018,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894905766","repostId":"2158225015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158225015","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628778784,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2158225015?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 22:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] Micron Technology fell more than 7% after being downgraded by Morgan Stanley","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158225015","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月12日，美光科技盘中跌超7%，此前摩根士丹利将美光科技评级降至“持有”。\n此前该公司首席执行官Mehrotra指出，公司预计DRAM和NAND内存芯片的供应在2022年将保持紧张，预计2021年的","content":"<p>August 12th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 7% during the session, before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Downgraded Micron Technology to \"Hold.\"</p><p>Previously, the company's CEO Mehrotra pointed out that the company expects the supply of DRAM and NAND memory chips to remain tight in 2022, and the DRAM industry is expected to grow by slightly more than 20% in 2021, with supply below demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e1a79f6522b9553c419a1d3e365bb0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] Micron Technology fell more than 7% after being downgraded by Morgan Stanley</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] Micron Technology fell more than 7% after being downgraded by Morgan Stanley\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-12 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 12th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 7% during the session, before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Downgraded Micron Technology to \"Hold.\"</p><p>Previously, the company's CEO Mehrotra pointed out that the company expects the supply of DRAM and NAND memory chips to remain tight in 2022, and the DRAM industry is expected to grow by slightly more than 20% in 2021, with supply below demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e1a79f6522b9553c419a1d3e365bb0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c571cf0b4357240a7b67c1db539b4a","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158225015","content_text":"8月12日，美光科技盘中跌超7%，此前摩根士丹利将美光科技评级降至“持有”。\n此前该公司首席执行官Mehrotra指出，公司预计DRAM和NAND内存芯片的供应在2022年将保持紧张，预计2021年的DRAM行业增长略高于20%，供应低于需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893463326,"gmtCreate":1628295962365,"gmtModify":1703504612411,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bj","listText":"Bj","text":"Bj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893463326","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808540259,"gmtCreate":1627603468271,"gmtModify":1703493081827,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kk","listText":"Kk","text":"Kk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808540259","repostId":"1109337387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808552464,"gmtCreate":1627603353258,"gmtModify":1703493076739,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ij&nbsp;","listText":"Ij&nbsp;","text":"Ij","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808552464","repostId":"1109337387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800456137,"gmtCreate":1627313904429,"gmtModify":1703487513021,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"9","listText":"9","text":"9","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800456137","repostId":"1181109009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176342874,"gmtCreate":1626866855798,"gmtModify":1703479532976,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahaha&nbsp;","listText":"Hahaha&nbsp;","text":"Hahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176342874","repostId":"1107424947","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173980676,"gmtCreate":1626599094395,"gmtModify":1703762216189,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;haha","listText":"&nbsp;haha","text":"haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173980676","repostId":"1172207687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCo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06:43","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Summary of key points from Powell's semi-annual monetary policy hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170720172","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美联储主席鲍威尔周三在众议院听证会上作半年度货币政策报告时表示，美国经济复苏还没有达到可以开始收缩资产购买规模的程度，补充称未来几个月通胀率可能会保持较高水平，然后和缓下来。关于央行数字货币（CBDC","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in his semi-annual monetary policy report at a House hearing on Wednesday that the U.S. economic recovery has not yet reached the point where it can begin to shrink asset purchases, adding that inflation is likely to remain high in the coming months and then moderate. down. Regarding the central bank digital currency (CBDC), Powell expects the Federal Reserve to release a central bank digital currency report in early September, which will explain the pros and cons of CBDC.</p><p>The following are the main contents of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee:</p><p><b>1. U.S. economy/inflation:</b></p><p>① The latest inflation data is higher than expected. The inflation rate is currently well above 2%. If inflation expectations continue to be higher than 2%, the Federal Reserve will take action.</p><p>② Monetary policy should still be highly loose, and one of the conditions for rate hike is that the economy is within the range of full employment.</p><p>③ At some point, if the inflation data does not decline, the Fed's description of inflation will \"reverse\".</p><p>④ The Fed is uncertain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>The inflation is \"temporary\", but still believe it to be a fact.</p><p>⑤ The issue of asset purchase will continue to be discussed at the FOMC meeting in July.</p><p>⑥ Reiterate that the Federal Reserve will give a notice before starting to reduce the scale of bond purchases. ⑦ Investment in good infrastructure can increase economic potential.</p><p><b>2. Job market:</b></p><p>① It is too early to say whether increasing unemployment benefits will hinder employment.</p><p>② The factors hindering employment will pass, and there will be strong employment growth.</p><p>③ Be patient with employment issues, and you will be able to return to the unemployment rate of 3.5%.</p><p><b>3. Digital currency:</b></p><p>① It is expected that the digital currency report will be released in early September.</p><p>② The risks faced by digital currency are real.</p><p>③ Stablecoins need an appropriate regulatory framework, and stablecoins need to be regulated in a way similar to money markets and bank deposits.</p><p>④ Decisions about digital currency are being accelerated.</p><p>⑤ Central bank digital currencies may rule out the demand for stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, which is a strong argument in support of it.</p><p><b>4. American real estate:</b></p><p>① Housing prices in the United States are rising at a very high rate.</p><p>② The reason of supply and demand leads to the increase of housing prices.</p><p>③ The real estate market will be a factor for the Federal Reserve to discuss the tapering plan and its composition.</p><p>④ Even if mortgage rates rise, there will still be a lot of housing demand.</p><p><b>5. Others:</b></p><p>① Global semiconductor supply shortages have hindered automobile production/output by 2021.</p><p>② The Federal Reserve wants financial institutions to be aware of climate risks.</p><p>③ The Federal Reserve is not at risk of losing its reserve currency status.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Summary of key points from Powell's semi-annual monetary policy hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSummary of key points from Powell's semi-annual monetary policy hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 06:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in his semi-annual monetary policy report at a House hearing on Wednesday that the U.S. economic recovery has not yet reached the point where it can begin to shrink asset purchases, adding that inflation is likely to remain high in the coming months and then moderate. down. Regarding the central bank digital currency (CBDC), Powell expects the Federal Reserve to release a central bank digital currency report in early September, which will explain the pros and cons of CBDC.</p><p>The following are the main contents of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee:</p><p><b>1. U.S. economy/inflation:</b></p><p>① The latest inflation data is higher than expected. The inflation rate is currently well above 2%. If inflation expectations continue to be higher than 2%, the Federal Reserve will take action.</p><p>② Monetary policy should still be highly loose, and one of the conditions for rate hike is that the economy is within the range of full employment.</p><p>③ At some point, if the inflation data does not decline, the Fed's description of inflation will \"reverse\".</p><p>④ The Fed is uncertain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>The inflation is \"temporary\", but still believe it to be a fact.</p><p>⑤ The issue of asset purchase will continue to be discussed at the FOMC meeting in July.</p><p>⑥ Reiterate that the Federal Reserve will give a notice before starting to reduce the scale of bond purchases. ⑦ Investment in good infrastructure can increase economic potential.</p><p><b>2. Job market:</b></p><p>① It is too early to say whether increasing unemployment benefits will hinder employment.</p><p>② The factors hindering employment will pass, and there will be strong employment growth.</p><p>③ Be patient with employment issues, and you will be able to return to the unemployment rate of 3.5%.</p><p><b>3. Digital currency:</b></p><p>① It is expected that the digital currency report will be released in early September.</p><p>② The risks faced by digital currency are real.</p><p>③ Stablecoins need an appropriate regulatory framework, and stablecoins need to be regulated in a way similar to money markets and bank deposits.</p><p>④ Decisions about digital currency are being accelerated.</p><p>⑤ Central bank digital currencies may rule out the demand for stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, which is a strong argument in support of it.</p><p><b>4. American real estate:</b></p><p>① Housing prices in the United States are rising at a very high rate.</p><p>② The reason of supply and demand leads to the increase of housing prices.</p><p>③ The real estate market will be a factor for the Federal Reserve to discuss the tapering plan and its composition.</p><p>④ Even if mortgage rates rise, there will still be a lot of housing demand.</p><p><b>5. Others:</b></p><p>① Global semiconductor supply shortages have hindered automobile production/output by 2021.</p><p>② The Federal Reserve wants financial institutions to be aware of climate risks.</p><p>③ The Federal Reserve is not at risk of losing its reserve currency status.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170720172","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔周三在众议院听证会上作半年度货币政策报告时表示，美国经济复苏还没有达到可以开始收缩资产购买规模的程度，补充称未来几个月通胀率可能会保持较高水平，然后和缓下来。关于央行数字货币（CBDC）方面，鲍威尔预计美联储将在9月初发布央行数字货币报告，届时将阐释CBDC的利弊。\n以下为美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院金融服务委员会就半年度货币政策报告主要内容：\n一、美国经济/通胀：\n①最新的通胀数据比预期的要高，通胀率目前远高于2%，如果通胀预期持续高于2%，美联储就会采取行动。\n②货币政策仍应高度宽松，加息的条件之一是经济处于充分就业的范围内。\n③在某个时候，如果通胀数据不下降，美联储对通胀的描述将会“反转”。\n④美联储不确定高通胀是“暂时的”，但仍然相信这是事实。\n⑤将在7月FOMC会议上继续讨论资产购买问题。\n⑥重申美联储将在开始缩减购债规模前给出通知。⑦对良好的基础设施的投资可以增加经济潜力。\n二、就业市场：\n①现在说增加失业救济金是否会阻碍就业还为时尚早。\n②阻碍就业的因素将会过去，将会有强劲的就业增长。\n③对就业问题保持耐心，将能够恢复到3.5%的失业率。\n三、数字货币：\n①预计9月初将发布数字货币报告。\n②数字货币面临的风险是真实存在的。\n③稳定币需要一个适当的监管框架，稳定币需要以类似货币市场和银行存款的方式进行监管。\n④正在加快作出关于数字货币的决策。\n⑤央行数字货币可能会排除对稳定币和加密货币的需求，这是支持它的有力论据。\n四、美国房地产：\n①美国的房价正在以很高的速度上涨。\n②供需原因导致住房价格上涨。\n③房地产市场将成为美联储讨论缩债计划及其组成的一个因素。\n④即使抵押贷款利率上升，仍然会有大量的住房需求。\n五、其他：\n①全球性的半导体供应短缺问题已经妨碍到2021年的汽车生产/产量。\n②美联储希望金融机构意识到气候风险。\n③美联储并没有面临失去其储备货币地位的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149741954,"gmtCreate":1625750749578,"gmtModify":1703747765788,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"err","listText":"err","text":"err","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149741954","repostId":"1172733132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172733132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625711383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172733132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 10:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"anchor of global asset pricing\" plummeted, what happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172733132","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"10年期美债收益率连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低。对德尔塔变异毒株的担心，经济数据回落，美国债务上限临近重启，以及美联储的态度是主导近期美债收益率走势变化的关键因素。\n\n美国10年期国债收益率继续下行，","content":"<p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit an intraday low since February for the second consecutive day. Concerns about the Delta mutant strain, the decline in economic data, the approaching restart of the U.S. debt ceiling, and the attitude of the Federal Reserve are the key factors leading recent changes in U.S. bond yields. U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields continue to decline, reflecting not only investors' concerns about the prospects for U.S. economic growth, but also concerns about the highly contagious Delta variant strain.</p><p>At the beginning of the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, July 7, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield once fell below 1.30%.<b>For the second consecutive day, it hit a new intraday low since February, and it was also the first time since February this year that it fell below 1.30%.</b></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to remain low after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting were released. Federal Reserve officials are debating how and when to start tapering central bank support for the economy, minutes show.</p><p>As of late trading in New York, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield was close to 1.32%, down 3 basis points during the day, and was at the lowest level in the same period since February 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281f0ec1d91531e8662d1d147de1df8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Treasury Bond yields are a closely watched barometer of the economy, especially long-term bond yields: when the economic outlook improves, yields tend to rise; When the economic growth prospect wavers, it will go down.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, U.S. bond yields once rose sharply, but they have been falling in recent days. To some extent, it reflects that investors are reassessing their forecasts for economic recovery. At the same time, there are various signs that the U.S. Congress and the Federal Reserve seem to provide stimulus. The intensity may not be as strong as before.</p><p><b>The first factor comes from the Delta variant, a highly contagious strain that has cast a shadow over the economic recovery.</b></p><p>According to the latest data released by CDC in the United States, the Delta variant strain has become the main prevalent strain in the United States. In the two weeks ending July 3, the proportion of delta variant strain in the central part of new cases in the United States accounted for 51.7%.</p><p>Meanwhile, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said last week that there are still about 1,000 counties in the United States with vaccine coverage below 30%, most of which are in the southeast and midwest of the United States. The CDC in the United States has found that the incidence rate in these areas is rising as the Delta variant strain spreads further.</p><p><b>In addition, economic data also fell back, which means that the U.S. economy is recovering or slowing down.</b></p><p>The U.S. ISM service industry index for June released on July 6 was 60.1, lower than expected, and significantly lower than the historical high of 64 set in May. Among them, the employment sub-index turned from expansion to contraction, hitting a six-month low.</p><p><b>Some analysts believe that the US TGA account may also be a factor.</b></p><p>The U.S. debt ceiling will take effect at the end of July, which means the U.S. Treasury Department needs to reduce the balance of TGA accounts before then. MarketWatch quoted Aptus Capital Advisors fixed income analyst John Luke Tyner as saying that after accumulating a large amount of funds, TGA accounts are gradually decreasing, leading to a reduction in bond supply, which is a key factor in recent changes in bond yield trends.</p><p><b>Finally, of course, there is the attitude of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Minutes of the Fed's June meeting released overnight hinted that Fed officials expect the Fed to start tapering QE sooner than expected due to stronger-than-expected economic growth so far this year.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal said signs that the Federal Reserve may reduce Treasury Bond purchases or raise short-term interest rates could lead investors to sell bonds, thus pushing up yields. But in recent weeks, only short-term yields have risen, while long-term bond yields have fallen, suggesting investors are worried that tightening monetary policy may hurt the economic recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"anchor of global asset pricing\" plummeted, what happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"anchor of global asset pricing\" plummeted, what happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-08 10:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit an intraday low since February for the second consecutive day. Concerns about the Delta mutant strain, the decline in economic data, the approaching restart of the U.S. debt ceiling, and the attitude of the Federal Reserve are the key factors leading recent changes in U.S. bond yields. U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields continue to decline, reflecting not only investors' concerns about the prospects for U.S. economic growth, but also concerns about the highly contagious Delta variant strain.</p><p>At the beginning of the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, July 7, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield once fell below 1.30%.<b>For the second consecutive day, it hit a new intraday low since February, and it was also the first time since February this year that it fell below 1.30%.</b></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to remain low after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting were released. Federal Reserve officials are debating how and when to start tapering central bank support for the economy, minutes show.</p><p>As of late trading in New York, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield was close to 1.32%, down 3 basis points during the day, and was at the lowest level in the same period since February 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281f0ec1d91531e8662d1d147de1df8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Treasury Bond yields are a closely watched barometer of the economy, especially long-term bond yields: when the economic outlook improves, yields tend to rise; When the economic growth prospect wavers, it will go down.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, U.S. bond yields once rose sharply, but they have been falling in recent days. To some extent, it reflects that investors are reassessing their forecasts for economic recovery. At the same time, there are various signs that the U.S. Congress and the Federal Reserve seem to provide stimulus. The intensity may not be as strong as before.</p><p><b>The first factor comes from the Delta variant, a highly contagious strain that has cast a shadow over the economic recovery.</b></p><p>According to the latest data released by CDC in the United States, the Delta variant strain has become the main prevalent strain in the United States. In the two weeks ending July 3, the proportion of delta variant strain in the central part of new cases in the United States accounted for 51.7%.</p><p>Meanwhile, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said last week that there are still about 1,000 counties in the United States with vaccine coverage below 30%, most of which are in the southeast and midwest of the United States. The CDC in the United States has found that the incidence rate in these areas is rising as the Delta variant strain spreads further.</p><p><b>In addition, economic data also fell back, which means that the U.S. economy is recovering or slowing down.</b></p><p>The U.S. ISM service industry index for June released on July 6 was 60.1, lower than expected, and significantly lower than the historical high of 64 set in May. Among them, the employment sub-index turned from expansion to contraction, hitting a six-month low.</p><p><b>Some analysts believe that the US TGA account may also be a factor.</b></p><p>The U.S. debt ceiling will take effect at the end of July, which means the U.S. Treasury Department needs to reduce the balance of TGA accounts before then. MarketWatch quoted Aptus Capital Advisors fixed income analyst John Luke Tyner as saying that after accumulating a large amount of funds, TGA accounts are gradually decreasing, leading to a reduction in bond supply, which is a key factor in recent changes in bond yield trends.</p><p><b>Finally, of course, there is the attitude of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Minutes of the Fed's June meeting released overnight hinted that Fed officials expect the Fed to start tapering QE sooner than expected due to stronger-than-expected economic growth so far this year.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal said signs that the Federal Reserve may reduce Treasury Bond purchases or raise short-term interest rates could lead investors to sell bonds, thus pushing up yields. But in recent weeks, only short-term yields have risen, while long-term bond yields have fallen, suggesting investors are worried that tightening monetary policy may hurt the economic recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172733132","content_text":"10年期美债收益率连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低。对德尔塔变异毒株的担心，经济数据回落，美国债务上限临近重启，以及美联储的态度是主导近期美债收益率走势变化的关键因素。\n\n美国10年期国债收益率继续下行，不仅反映出投资者对美国经济增长前景的担忧，也反映了对传染性极强的德尔塔变异毒株的担心。\n7月7日周三美股盘初，美国10年期国债收益率一度降至1.30%下方，连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低，也是今年2月以来首次跌破1.30%。\n在美联储6月会议纪要公布后，10年期美债收益率继续维持在较低水平。纪要显示，美联储官员们正在就如何以及何时开始缩减央行对经济的支持展开辩论。\n截止纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率接近1.32%，日内降3个基点，处于2月18日以来同时段最低水平。\n\n国债收益率是一个受到密切关注的经济晴雨表，尤其是长期债券收益率：当经济前景改善时，收益率往往上行；而当经济增长前景动摇时，则会下行。\n今年一季度，美债收益率曾一度大幅攀升，然而近日以来却一路走低，某种程度上反映了投资者在重新评估对经济复苏的预测，同时各种迹象也显示美国国会和美联储似乎提供的刺激力度可能没有此前那样强劲。\n第一个因素来自德尔塔变异毒株，这种传染性极高的毒株给经济复苏蒙上了阴影。\n根据美国CDC最新公布的数据，德尔塔变异毒株已经成为美国主要流行的毒株。截至7月3日的两周内，美国新增病例中部德尔塔变异毒株的比例占到了51.7%。\n与此同时，美国CDC主任Rochelle Walensky上周表示，美国仍有约1000个县的疫苗覆盖率低于30%，这些县大部分位于美国东南部和中西部。美国CDC已经发现，随着德尔塔变异毒株的进一步传播，这些地区的发病率正在上升。\n此外，经济数据方面也出现回落，意味着美国经济复苏或放缓。\n7月6日公布的6月美国ISM服务业指数为60.1，低于预期，同时较5月创下的64这一历史高位显著回落。其中就业分项指数更是从扩张转为收缩，创下六个月新低。\n还有分析师认为，美国TGA账户可能也是一个因素。\n美国债务上限将在7月底生效，即美国财政部需要在此之前压降TGA账户余额。MarketWatch援引Aptus Capital Advisors固收分析师John Luke Tyner表示，TGA账户在积累了大量资金后，正在逐步减少，导致了债券供应量的减少，这是近期债券收益率走势变化的一个关键因素。\n最后当然是美联储的态度。\n隔夜公布的美联储6月会议纪要暗示，由于今年迄今为止经济增长强于预期，美联储官员们预计美联储能够比预期更早开始缩减QE。\n华尔街日报表示，美联储可能会减少国债购买或者提高短期利率的迹象，可能导致投资者抛售债券，从而推高收益率。但是最近几周，只有短期收益率上行，而长债收益率下行，这表明投资者担心货币政策收紧可能会损害经济复苏。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159402116,"gmtCreate":1624975891135,"gmtModify":1703849277006,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159402116","repostId":"2147904866","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2147904866","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624975760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2147904866?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 22:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks in the first half of the year \"horses run and dance\", but people are preparing to run","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147904866","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在美股散户持续买入、标普500再创新高之际，华尔街开始保持谨慎。投行分析师警告称，考虑拜登税改及美联储缩减刺激政策的潜在威胁，目前美股的涨势恐不能持续。\n美股的上涨势头似乎不可阻挡。在持续买盘的驱动下","content":"<p>As retail investors in U.S. stocks continue to buy and the S&P 500 hits new highs, Wall Street is beginning to remain cautious. Investment bank analysts warned that the current rally in U.S. stocks may not be sustainable considering the potential threat of Biden's tax reform and the Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus policy.</p><p>The upward momentum of U.S. stocks seems unstoppable. Driven by continued buying, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 14% in the first six months of this year, adding about $6 trillion to its market value, and is on track for its second-best first-half performance since 1998. Since the end of October last year, the S&P 500 has not seen a single-day correction of 5%. In 1999, at similar valuation levels, the S&P 500 index fell by more than 5% at least nine times.</p><p>The continued buying of U.S. stock retail investors is indispensable. Vanda Research The data shows,<b>When the S&P 500 fell more than 1% last week, retail investors poured a record $2 billion into the stock market.</b></p><p>This persistent buying doesn't seem to end with the unlocking of the epidemic. According to the Betterment survey, 58% of the 1,500 U.S. stock retail investors surveyed plan to trade more after the epidemic is lifted, and only 12% said that the number of transactions will decrease as the epidemic is lifted.</p><p>The overall valuation of the market is also becoming normal. Due to the continued expansion of profits, the overall P/E of the market has dropped from 23x at the beginning of the year (near the highest since the dot-com bubble) to 21x, but it is still higher than the 5-year average of 18x.</p><p>But as the stock market continues to rise, the differentiation between sectors is widening.<b>In March this year, there was the most severe differentiation between the best and worst performing sectors in the market since 2002.</b></p><p>Medium and large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks have also gone out of a fairly independent market.<b>The last time this happened was back to the Internet bubble in 2000.</b></p><p>Wall Street analysts are cautious about the future prospects of U.S. stocks. Analysts generally expect that the strong post-epidemic rebound in U.S. stock companies' performance will peak this quarter, considering the potential threat of Biden's tax reform and the Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus policy.<b>At present, Wall Street's average target point forecast for the S&P 500 at the end of the year is only 4,213, which is 1.7% lower than the latest market close.</b></p><p>The bears are also regrouping. IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The data shows,<b>The current short selling ratio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF in the market has climbed to 5% from less than 2% at the beginning of the year. Demand for protection against losses in the options market is also on the rise in coming months.</b></p><p>Market analysts believe that the biggest threat to U.S. stocks at present comes from the Federal Reserve. If the Fed had an early rate hike, cash and bonds would be more attractive and investors would have no choice but to dump stocks.</p><p>The market is also extremely sensitive to the Fed's movements. After the Federal Reserve released \"hawkish\" information, U.S. stocks once experienced violent fluctuations. Comments from rate hike two years after the Fed, rather than rate hike three years later as previously expected, increased pressure on stocks, with the S&P 500 index falling just over 2% in three days before resuming its gains.</p><p>Washington Crossing fund manager Kevin Caron commented that the current U.S. stock market may be a bit \"ahead of time\" and the market may experience some fluctuations in the next six months until the stock price and fundamentals become more \"normal.\"</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks in the first half of the year \"horses run and dance\", but people are preparing to run</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks in the first half of the year \"horses run and dance\", but people are preparing to run\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 22:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As retail investors in U.S. stocks continue to buy and the S&P 500 hits new highs, Wall Street is beginning to remain cautious. Investment bank analysts warned that the current rally in U.S. stocks may not be sustainable considering the potential threat of Biden's tax reform and the Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus policy.</p><p>The upward momentum of U.S. stocks seems unstoppable. Driven by continued buying, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 14% in the first six months of this year, adding about $6 trillion to its market value, and is on track for its second-best first-half performance since 1998. Since the end of October last year, the S&P 500 has not seen a single-day correction of 5%. In 1999, at similar valuation levels, the S&P 500 index fell by more than 5% at least nine times.</p><p>The continued buying of U.S. stock retail investors is indispensable. Vanda Research The data shows,<b>When the S&P 500 fell more than 1% last week, retail investors poured a record $2 billion into the stock market.</b></p><p>This persistent buying doesn't seem to end with the unlocking of the epidemic. According to the Betterment survey, 58% of the 1,500 U.S. stock retail investors surveyed plan to trade more after the epidemic is lifted, and only 12% said that the number of transactions will decrease as the epidemic is lifted.</p><p>The overall valuation of the market is also becoming normal. Due to the continued expansion of profits, the overall P/E of the market has dropped from 23x at the beginning of the year (near the highest since the dot-com bubble) to 21x, but it is still higher than the 5-year average of 18x.</p><p>But as the stock market continues to rise, the differentiation between sectors is widening.<b>In March this year, there was the most severe differentiation between the best and worst performing sectors in the market since 2002.</b></p><p>Medium and large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks have also gone out of a fairly independent market.<b>The last time this happened was back to the Internet bubble in 2000.</b></p><p>Wall Street analysts are cautious about the future prospects of U.S. stocks. Analysts generally expect that the strong post-epidemic rebound in U.S. stock companies' performance will peak this quarter, considering the potential threat of Biden's tax reform and the Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus policy.<b>At present, Wall Street's average target point forecast for the S&P 500 at the end of the year is only 4,213, which is 1.7% lower than the latest market close.</b></p><p>The bears are also regrouping. IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The data shows,<b>The current short selling ratio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF in the market has climbed to 5% from less than 2% at the beginning of the year. Demand for protection against losses in the options market is also on the rise in coming months.</b></p><p>Market analysts believe that the biggest threat to U.S. stocks at present comes from the Federal Reserve. If the Fed had an early rate hike, cash and bonds would be more attractive and investors would have no choice but to dump stocks.</p><p>The market is also extremely sensitive to the Fed's movements. After the Federal Reserve released \"hawkish\" information, U.S. stocks once experienced violent fluctuations. Comments from rate hike two years after the Fed, rather than rate hike three years later as previously expected, increased pressure on stocks, with the S&P 500 index falling just over 2% in three days before resuming its gains.</p><p>Washington Crossing fund manager Kevin Caron commented that the current U.S. stock market may be a bit \"ahead of time\" and the market may experience some fluctuations in the next six months until the stock price and fundamentals become more \"normal.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634144\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634144","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147904866","content_text":"在美股散户持续买入、标普500再创新高之际，华尔街开始保持谨慎。投行分析师警告称，考虑拜登税改及美联储缩减刺激政策的潜在威胁，目前美股的涨势恐不能持续。\n美股的上涨势头似乎不可阻挡。在持续买盘的驱动下，今年前6个月标普500指数上涨近14%，市值增加约6万亿美元，有望创1998年以来第二好的上半年表现。自去年10月底以来，标普500指数从未出现单日回调5%的情况。而在类似估值水平的1999年，标普500指数至少有9次下跌超过5%。\n美股散户的持续买入功不可没。Vanda Research数据显示，当标准普尔500指数上周下跌超过1%时，散户投资者向股市投入了创纪录的20亿美元。\n这种持续性的买入似乎不会因疫情解封而结束。Betterment调查显示，在1500名受调查的美股散户中，有58%的人计划在疫情解封后更多的交易，仅有12%的表示交易数量将随着疫情解封而降低。\n市场的整体估值也在趋向正常。由于利润的持续扩张，市场整体市盈率已经从年初的23x（接近互联网泡沫以来最高）下跌至21x，但仍高过5年平均水平的18x。\n但在股市持续上涨之际，板块之间分化正在扩大。市场中表现最佳板块与表现最差板块之间今年3月出现了2002年以来的最严重分化。\n中大型股和小型股也走出了相当独立的行情，而上一次出现这种情况还要追溯到2000年的互联网泡沫时期。\n对于美股未来前景，华尔街分析师们出言谨慎。分析师们普遍预计，美股公司疫情后业绩的强劲反弹将在本季见顶，考虑拜登税改及美联储缩减刺激政策的潜在威胁，目前华尔街对于标普500年末的平均目标点位预测仅有4213，较最新市场收盘低1.7%。\n空头们也在重新聚集。IHS Markit数据显示，目前市场上对SPDR S&P 500 ETF的卖空比例已从年初的不到2%攀升至5%。期权市场对未来几个月损失的保护需求也在上升。\n市场分析认为，目前对于美股最大的威胁来自美联储。如果美联储提前加息，现金和债券将会更有吸引力，而投资者别无选择只能抛售股票。\n市场对于美联储的动向也异常敏感。此前在美联储释放“鹰派”信息后，美股一度出现剧烈波动。美联储两年后加息、而非此前预计的三年后加息的言论加大了股市的压力，标普500指数在三天内累计跌幅略高于2%，之后才恢复升势。\nWashington Crossing 基金经理Kevin Caron评论称，目前美股可能有点“超前了”，市场在未来的6个月里可能出现一些波动，直到股价和基本面更加“趋于正常”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164456713,"gmtCreate":1624234452132,"gmtModify":1703830989539,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164456713","repostId":"2145704051","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163588560,"gmtCreate":1623888972750,"gmtModify":1703822474762,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163588560","repostId":"1158977040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180144943,"gmtCreate":1623196524882,"gmtModify":1704197987320,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oao&nbsp;","listText":"Oao&nbsp;","text":"Oao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180144943","repostId":"1179000628","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179000628","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623144281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179000628?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 17:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179000628","media":"智通财经","summary":"2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。","content":"<p>Author: He Yucheng</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increases, U.S. stocks may pull back in the next six months. 10%-15%.</p><p>Given that in the past four quarters, the earnings of U.S. stock companies have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings situation in the second half of 2021 is relatively grim.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that during the epidemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituent stocks achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely the technology, health care and utilities industries.</p><p>The chart below, FactSet (FDS), shows the record results expected in Q2 2021, the best since Q4 2009.</p><p><b>Tax increase-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting on June 5 announced support for the proposal to levy the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current The technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the hardest hit.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>The third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the market's consensus forecast for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index, it is still at a high level of around 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, there is limited room for further upward movement in the US stock market.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases a signal to reduce bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter may be the time when U.S. stock risks will break out.</p><p>And if the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined to be January 1, 2022, the high probability of the outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy stocks remain attractive</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best-performing sector in U.S. stock markets this year, but there is still plenty of room for upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>Looking at the longer timeline, the stock prices of energy producers have not yet returned to the levels before the oil price plunge that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving upward revisions to earnings per share growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. This peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: He Yucheng</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increases, U.S. stocks may pull back in the next six months. 10%-15%.</p><p>Given that in the past four quarters, the earnings of U.S. stock companies have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings situation in the second half of 2021 is relatively grim.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that during the epidemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituent stocks achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely the technology, health care and utilities industries.</p><p>The chart below, FactSet (FDS), shows the record results expected in Q2 2021, the best since Q4 2009.</p><p><b>Tax increase-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting on June 5 announced support for the proposal to levy the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current The technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the hardest hit.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>The third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the market's consensus forecast for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index, it is still at a high level of around 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, there is limited room for further upward movement in the US stock market.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases a signal to reduce bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter may be the time when U.S. stock risks will break out.</p><p>And if the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined to be January 1, 2022, the high probability of the outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy stocks remain attractive</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best-performing sector in U.S. stock markets this year, but there is still plenty of room for upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>Looking at the longer timeline, the stock prices of energy producers have not yet returned to the levels before the oil price plunge that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving upward revisions to earnings per share growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. This peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0bcd99a5c3036928825c7c943e566f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1179000628","content_text":"作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在2020年第一季度和第二季度实现了正收益和收入增长，即科技、保健以及公用事业行业。\n下图FactSet(FDS)显示了2021年第二季度预期的创纪录结果，这是自2009年第四季度以来最好的一次。\n加税——美股下半年最大的风险\n6月5日的G7财长会议通告支持征收15%全球最低税率的提议，拜登国内加税提案如落地，预计将是美股下半年最大的风险：企业所得税的上调将直接冲击美股盈利，而当前有效税率较低、海外收入占比高的科技和医药行业受冲击预计最大。\n中信证券表示，若资本利得税若上调至39.6%，预计将引发投资者抛售，今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”入市的趋势或逆转。\n3季度或成为美股集中爆发点\n虽然市场对今年标普500盈利增速的一致预期已从4月中旬的27%上调至当前的34%，但鉴于目前标普指数动态估值仍处于22倍左右的高位。在无新的催化因素下，美股大市进一步上行的空间有限。\n相反，各类风险却在逐步加剧。若美联储于8月底明确释放削减购债的信号，且民主党于9月底前如期通过加税法案，则3季度下旬或是美股风险集中爆发的时间点。\n而如果资本利得税改的起始有效日最终确定为2022年1月1日，则“散户加杠杆”资金的大概率流出可能会在4季度对美股的表现造成负面影响。\n能源股仍具备吸引力\n在美国股市今年以来的交易中，能源股是表现最好的一个板块，但要弥补多年以来的大幅下跌，这个板块还有很大的上行空间。\n如拉长时间轴来看，能源生产商的股价尚未恢复到2014年夏季开始的油价大跌之前的水平。\n\n如埃克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)正在推动能源行业每股收益增长的上调。\n目前能源占标普500指数市值的比例仍然只有3%。这一比例在2014年8月至9月达到14%-15%的峰值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115543416,"gmtCreate":1623024574535,"gmtModify":1704194398801,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115543416","repostId":"1124114752","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124114752","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623024479,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124114752?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 08:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"When investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124114752","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"近期股市热度再起，很多人再次燃起股市投资的兴趣。经历了春节后的市场下跌及随后的反转，越来越多的投资者开始体会到市场短期波动的无常和不可测，认识到长期持有的必要性。\nA股投资，既可投资个股，也可投资行业","content":"<p>Recently, the stock market has revived its popularity, and many people have renewed their interest in stock market investment. After the market decline and subsequent reversal after the Spring Festival, more and more investors began to realize the impermanence and unpredictability of short-term market fluctuations and realize the necessity of long-term holding.</p><p>A-share investment can invest in both individual stocks and industries (industry funds/ETFs). Compared with individual stocks, the volatility of the industry is lower, and there is no risk of value clearing for long-term holdings. Based on the current market environment, which A-share industries are worth holding for a long time?</p><p><b>Which industry has been the most profitable to invest in in the past two decades?</b></p><p>Let's first review the historical performance. Suppose an investor started investing in industry indexes in late 2000 and held them until the end of 2020. What will happen?</p><p>The good news is that annualized returns are positive across all sectors; The bad news is,<b>Only four industries have an annualized rate of return of more than 10%, namely food and beverage (15.9%), household appliances (11.3%), medicine and biology (10.3%) and leisure services (10.2%).</b>If investors choose the wrong industry, such as communications (1.7%), steel (1.7%), public utilities (1.4%), architectural decoration (1.3%), mining (1.1%), textiles and clothing (0.5%), etc., long-term holding may not outperform inflation, or even bank deposits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779e428a60d236481d8add0ea65957ff\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion seems clear at a glance. If you want to invest for a long time, just choose ETFs or industry funds in industries such as food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology, and leisure services. This conclusion is also consistent with the general perception of investors. The consumer and medical industries have always been fertile ground for the production of bull stocks, such as Moutai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600436\">Pien Tze Huang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Wait, long-term holding has an amazing rate of return.</p><p>The problem is that it is very misleading to calculate the annualized rate of return at two arbitrary time points. There are two sources of annualized rate of return in the range, one is valuation growth, and the other is profit growth. Only by distinguishing the source of yield can we better distinguish the yield level of the industry.</p><p>By breaking down the annualized rate of return into profit contribution and P/E contribution, you can<b>It is found that from 2000 to 2020, the P/E contribution of most industries was negative, that is, in the past two decades, A-shares as a whole have been in the stage of killing valuations (from 69 times to 23 times), and the industry's profit growth has been largely Offset by shrinking valuations.</b></p><p>If only profit contribution is considered, there will be significant differences in industry rankings. Banks (17.8%), food and beverage (15.5%), building materials (15.0%), real estate (14.9%), household appliances (13.2%), non-bank Finance (12.3%), pharmaceutical biology (11.9%), electrical equipment (11.8%) and other industries rank high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6efdda79042234acd08d733d6d1661fb\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Taking the banking industry as an example, the annualized profit contribution is as high as 17.8%, which is worthy of being the most profitable industry. However, the annualized rate of return in 20 years is only 7.2%, which is a rather mediocre level. The reason is the huge fluctuations in the P/E. At the end of 2000, the banking industry, as a high-growth industry, had bright prospects, with a profit ratio of 67 times. At the end of 2020, the P/E dropped to 7.2 times. The sharp shrinkage in valuation offset the contribution of profit growth.</p><p>This also once again shows the importance of buying at a reasonable valuation level. Even in an industry with high profit growth, if the valuation level at the time of buying is too high, the long-term holding return will be very mediocre.</p><p><b>Based on the moment: Which industries are worth holding for the long term?</b></p><p>In the past two decades, China's economy has gone through a stage of rapid growth. Almost all industries were once growth industries, and the overall profit growth is considerable. However, entering 2021, the economy has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading, and industries have begun to differentiate. Some industries no longer grow, some industries have slowed down, and some industries have promising future prospects.</p><p>Changes in the industry environment have limited reference significance for the industry's annualized rate of return in the past two decades. Investment must be future-oriented and discover investment targets from future high-growth industries.</p><p>According to the exclusion method, industries such as banking, building materials, real estate, steel, mining, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have limited growth space, so they can be included in the negative list and not considered at the industry level (individual stock investment is another matter).<b>In consumption upgrades, population aging, products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Under the main development lines of chemical and carbon neutrality, food and beverage, non-bank finance (brokerage insurance), pharmaceutical and biological,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing, energy conservation and environmental protection, leisure and entertainment and other fields have broad prospects.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, under the premise of promising growth prospects, it is also necessary to evaluate the rationality of industry valuations to avoid high-priced buying.</p><p>This paper takes the industry average P/E since 2016 as the benchmark P/E, and takes the current ratio of P/E to benchmark P/E as the valuation coefficient. The higher the valuation coefficient, the higher the industry valuation level. Taking food and beverage as an example, the current P/E (20210531) is 51 times, the benchmark P/E is 33.7 times, and the valuation coefficient is as high as 151%. From the perspective of valuation, it is not a good buying point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f3b240a5b6c98f701e659ce15542eb\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the order of valuation coefficients from low to high, the valuation levels of machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, communications, media, electronics, non-bank finance, computers and other industries are still lower than the average; In contrast, food and beverage, leisure services and other industries, although long-term profit growth is expected, the current valuation level is relatively high, and investors need to wait patiently before buying after the valuation falls back.</p><p><b>Typical industry analysis:</b><b>Pharmaceutical Biology</b></p><p>It should be noted that there will also be differentiation within the industry sector. For example, the automobile industry as a whole is a cyclical industry, but the new energy vehicle sub-sector has high growth attributes; For example, household appliances, the growth of traditional household appliances has slowed down, but the smart home electronics sector has high growth potential, typically such as sweeping the floor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, there is huge room for growth.</p><p>In the current market, the pharmaceutical industry has attracted much attention. This article briefly analyzes the situation of various sub-sectors of pharmaceutical biology for investors' decision-making reference.</p><p>We still break down the annualized rate of return into P/E contribution and profit contribution, focusing on profit contribution. From the perspective of profit contribution, from 2010 to 2020, the medical service industry performed amazingly, with an annualized rate of return of 21.1%; Medical devices followed closely behind at 18.6%; This is followed by the biological products and pharmaceutical business sub-sectors; In contrast, the performance of traditional Chinese medicine and chemical medicine sectors is very mediocre.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808c45e3f492c33ea2a18f5fb1cffde8\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Taking stock of 18 medical stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, the compound growth rate of net profit in the past five and ten years has generally been above 20%, and some can even remain above 40%, which once again shows that profit growth is the soil for bull stocks. From the perspective of sub-industry distribution, there are 7 companies in the biological products sub-sector, 5 in the medical service sector, 3 in the medical device sector, 2 in traditional Chinese medicine, and only 1 in chemical drug on the list.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72997ca352fd1ab42ff9d1437c4d392c\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of profit growth, the sub-sectors of medical services, medical devices, and biological products are the first choices. What is the current valuation level of each sector?</p><p>Compared with the average P/E since 2016, the valuation coefficient of the medical device sub-sector (current P/E/average P/E) is only 52%, followed by pharmaceutical business (84%), medical services (101%), and biological products (104%).) Followed closely, overall, they are at a relatively reasonable level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c670a9882d584a69346483c91ecba1b8\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Enlightenment for investors</b></p><p>Value investing emphasizes buying and holding for a long time, but listed companies have their own development cycles. Some companies can improve for a long time, but most companies are gradually becoming mediocre, and their final outcome is death. If investors can't tell the difference, long-term holdings can easily fall into value traps.</p><p>Therefore, selecting companies with growth potential and dynamically evaluating changes in their competitiveness constitutes a threshold for long-term shareholding, and many investors are blocked out. Therefore, Buffett suggested that ordinary investors invest in the index, diversify the risks of individual stocks by holding the index, and enjoy the benefits of the overall growth of listed companies.</p><p>In fact, there is a better way, which is to select industries.</p><p>At present, China Securities Index Company has compiled more than 200 A-share sub-industry indexes, many of which have corresponding ETFs and fund products. Investors select several longevity industries with development potential based on their own circle of competence, and buy industry indexes (industry funds or ETFs) at reasonable valuations. Long-term holdings have a high probability of outperforming the market.</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 08:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the stock market has revived its popularity, and many people have renewed their interest in stock market investment. After the market decline and subsequent reversal after the Spring Festival, more and more investors began to realize the impermanence and unpredictability of short-term market fluctuations and realize the necessity of long-term holding.</p><p>A-share investment can invest in both individual stocks and industries (industry funds/ETFs). Compared with individual stocks, the volatility of the industry is lower, and there is no risk of value clearing for long-term holdings. Based on the current market environment, which A-share industries are worth holding for a long time?</p><p><b>Which industry has been the most profitable to invest in in the past two decades?</b></p><p>Let's first review the historical performance. Suppose an investor started investing in industry indexes in late 2000 and held them until the end of 2020. What will happen?</p><p>The good news is that annualized returns are positive across all sectors; The bad news is,<b>Only four industries have an annualized rate of return of more than 10%, namely food and beverage (15.9%), household appliances (11.3%), medicine and biology (10.3%) and leisure services (10.2%).</b>If investors choose the wrong industry, such as communications (1.7%), steel (1.7%), public utilities (1.4%), architectural decoration (1.3%), mining (1.1%), textiles and clothing (0.5%), etc., long-term holding may not outperform inflation, or even bank deposits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779e428a60d236481d8add0ea65957ff\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion seems clear at a glance. If you want to invest for a long time, just choose ETFs or industry funds in industries such as food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology, and leisure services. This conclusion is also consistent with the general perception of investors. The consumer and medical industries have always been fertile ground for the production of bull stocks, such as Moutai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600436\">Pien Tze Huang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Wait, long-term holding has an amazing rate of return.</p><p>The problem is that it is very misleading to calculate the annualized rate of return at two arbitrary time points. There are two sources of annualized rate of return in the range, one is valuation growth, and the other is profit growth. Only by distinguishing the source of yield can we better distinguish the yield level of the industry.</p><p>By breaking down the annualized rate of return into profit contribution and P/E contribution, you can<b>It is found that from 2000 to 2020, the P/E contribution of most industries was negative, that is, in the past two decades, A-shares as a whole have been in the stage of killing valuations (from 69 times to 23 times), and the industry's profit growth has been largely Offset by shrinking valuations.</b></p><p>If only profit contribution is considered, there will be significant differences in industry rankings. Banks (17.8%), food and beverage (15.5%), building materials (15.0%), real estate (14.9%), household appliances (13.2%), non-bank Finance (12.3%), pharmaceutical biology (11.9%), electrical equipment (11.8%) and other industries rank high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6efdda79042234acd08d733d6d1661fb\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Taking the banking industry as an example, the annualized profit contribution is as high as 17.8%, which is worthy of being the most profitable industry. However, the annualized rate of return in 20 years is only 7.2%, which is a rather mediocre level. The reason is the huge fluctuations in the P/E. At the end of 2000, the banking industry, as a high-growth industry, had bright prospects, with a profit ratio of 67 times. At the end of 2020, the P/E dropped to 7.2 times. The sharp shrinkage in valuation offset the contribution of profit growth.</p><p>This also once again shows the importance of buying at a reasonable valuation level. Even in an industry with high profit growth, if the valuation level at the time of buying is too high, the long-term holding return will be very mediocre.</p><p><b>Based on the moment: Which industries are worth holding for the long term?</b></p><p>In the past two decades, China's economy has gone through a stage of rapid growth. Almost all industries were once growth industries, and the overall profit growth is considerable. However, entering 2021, the economy has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading, and industries have begun to differentiate. Some industries no longer grow, some industries have slowed down, and some industries have promising future prospects.</p><p>Changes in the industry environment have limited reference significance for the industry's annualized rate of return in the past two decades. Investment must be future-oriented and discover investment targets from future high-growth industries.</p><p>According to the exclusion method, industries such as banking, building materials, real estate, steel, mining, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have limited growth space, so they can be included in the negative list and not considered at the industry level (individual stock investment is another matter).<b>In consumption upgrades, population aging, products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Under the main development lines of chemical and carbon neutrality, food and beverage, non-bank finance (brokerage insurance), pharmaceutical and biological,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing, energy conservation and environmental protection, leisure and entertainment and other fields have broad prospects.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, under the premise of promising growth prospects, it is also necessary to evaluate the rationality of industry valuations to avoid high-priced buying.</p><p>This paper takes the industry average P/E since 2016 as the benchmark P/E, and takes the current ratio of P/E to benchmark P/E as the valuation coefficient. The higher the valuation coefficient, the higher the industry valuation level. Taking food and beverage as an example, the current P/E (20210531) is 51 times, the benchmark P/E is 33.7 times, and the valuation coefficient is as high as 151%. From the perspective of valuation, it is not a good buying point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f3b240a5b6c98f701e659ce15542eb\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the order of valuation coefficients from low to high, the valuation levels of machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, communications, media, electronics, non-bank finance, computers and other industries are still lower than the average; In contrast, food and beverage, leisure services and other industries, although long-term profit growth is expected, the current valuation level is relatively high, and investors need to wait patiently before buying after the valuation falls back.</p><p><b>Typical industry analysis:</b><b>Pharmaceutical Biology</b></p><p>It should be noted that there will also be differentiation within the industry sector. For example, the automobile industry as a whole is a cyclical industry, but the new energy vehicle sub-sector has high growth attributes; For example, household appliances, the growth of traditional household appliances has slowed down, but the smart home electronics sector has high growth potential, typically such as sweeping the floor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, there is huge room for growth.</p><p>In the current market, the pharmaceutical industry has attracted much attention. This article briefly analyzes the situation of various sub-sectors of pharmaceutical biology for investors' decision-making reference.</p><p>We still break down the annualized rate of return into P/E contribution and profit contribution, focusing on profit contribution. From the perspective of profit contribution, from 2010 to 2020, the medical service industry performed amazingly, with an annualized rate of return of 21.1%; Medical devices followed closely behind at 18.6%; This is followed by the biological products and pharmaceutical business sub-sectors; In contrast, the performance of traditional Chinese medicine and chemical medicine sectors is very mediocre.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808c45e3f492c33ea2a18f5fb1cffde8\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Taking stock of 18 medical stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, the compound growth rate of net profit in the past five and ten years has generally been above 20%, and some can even remain above 40%, which once again shows that profit growth is the soil for bull stocks. From the perspective of sub-industry distribution, there are 7 companies in the biological products sub-sector, 5 in the medical service sector, 3 in the medical device sector, 2 in traditional Chinese medicine, and only 1 in chemical drug on the list.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72997ca352fd1ab42ff9d1437c4d392c\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of profit growth, the sub-sectors of medical services, medical devices, and biological products are the first choices. What is the current valuation level of each sector?</p><p>Compared with the average P/E since 2016, the valuation coefficient of the medical device sub-sector (current P/E/average P/E) is only 52%, followed by pharmaceutical business (84%), medical services (101%), and biological products (104%).) Followed closely, overall, they are at a relatively reasonable level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c670a9882d584a69346483c91ecba1b8\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Enlightenment for investors</b></p><p>Value investing emphasizes buying and holding for a long time, but listed companies have their own development cycles. Some companies can improve for a long time, but most companies are gradually becoming mediocre, and their final outcome is death. If investors can't tell the difference, long-term holdings can easily fall into value traps.</p><p>Therefore, selecting companies with growth potential and dynamically evaluating changes in their competitiveness constitutes a threshold for long-term shareholding, and many investors are blocked out. Therefore, Buffett suggested that ordinary investors invest in the index, diversify the risks of individual stocks by holding the index, and enjoy the benefits of the overall growth of listed companies.</p><p>In fact, there is a better way, which is to select industries.</p><p>At present, China Securities Index Company has compiled more than 200 A-share sub-industry indexes, many of which have corresponding ETFs and fund products. Investors select several longevity industries with development potential based on their own circle of competence, and buy industry indexes (industry funds or ETFs) at reasonable valuations. Long-term holdings have a high probability of outperforming the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-I7-UVkVIAHNs4H19twnQA\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718d9d0cee89dacb8ae3664167fe24e6","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-I7-UVkVIAHNs4H19twnQA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124114752","content_text":"近期股市热度再起，很多人再次燃起股市投资的兴趣。经历了春节后的市场下跌及随后的反转，越来越多的投资者开始体会到市场短期波动的无常和不可测，认识到长期持有的必要性。\nA股投资，既可投资个股，也可投资行业（行业基金/ETF）。相比个股，行业的波动性更低，且长期持有没有价值清零风险。立足当下市场环境，A股哪些行业值得长期持有呢？\n过去二十年，投资哪个行业最赚钱？\n我们先来回顾下历史表现。假定一个投资者自2000年末开始投资行业指数，持有至2020年末，结果会怎样呢？\n好消息是，所有行业的年化收益率均为正值；坏消息是，仅有四个行业的年化收益率超过10%，分别是食品饮料（15.9%）、家用电器（11.3%）、医药生物（10.3%）和休闲服务（10.2%）。若投资者选错了行业，如通信（1.7%）、钢铁（1.7%）、公用事业（1.4%）、建筑装饰（1.3%）、采掘（1.1%）、纺织服装（0.5%）等，长期持有未必能跑赢通胀，甚至跑不赢银行存款。\n\n结论似乎一目了然，若要长期投资，选择食品饮料、家用电器、医药生物、休闲服务等行业的ETF或行业基金就好了。这个结论与投资者的普遍认知也是相符的，消费、医疗行业一向是产生牛股的沃土，典型如茅台、五粮液、片仔癀、恒瑞医药等，长期拿着都有惊人的收益率。\n问题是，任意拿两个时点来计算年化收益率，具有很大的误导性。区间的年化收益率有两个来源，一是估值增长，一是盈利增长。只有区分收益率来源，才能更好地辨别行业的收益率水平。\n通过把年化收益率分解为盈利贡献和市盈率贡献，可以发现2000-2020年间，绝大多数行业的市盈率贡献都是负的，即过去二十年A股整体处于杀估值阶段（从69倍降至23倍），行业的盈利增长很大程度上被估值缩水对冲掉了。\n若仅考虑盈利贡献，行业排名位次会出现显著差异，银行（17.8%）、食品饮料（15.5%）、建筑材料（15.0%）、房地产（14.9%）、家用电器（13.2%）、非银金融（12.3%）、医药生物（11.9%）、电气设备（11.8%）等行业排名靠前。\n\n以银行业为例，年化盈利贡献高达17.8%，不愧为最赚钱的行业，但二十年里年化收益率仅为7.2%，是一个相当平庸的水平。原因在于市盈率的巨大波动，2000年末，银行业作为高增长行业，前景光明，盈率高达67倍，2020年末，市盈率降至7.2倍，估值的大幅缩水抵消了盈利增长的贡献。\n这也再次表明以合理估值水平买入的重要性。即便是盈利高增长的行业，若买入时估值水平太高，长期持有的回报也会非常平庸。\n立足当下：哪些行业值得长期持有？\n过去二十年，中国经济走过高速增长阶段，几乎所有行业都曾是成长性行业，整体盈利增长相当可观。但步入2021年，经济步入转型升级的新阶段，行业开始分化，有些行业不再增长，有些行业增长放缓，也有些行业未来前景可期。\n行业大环境的变化，让行业过去二十年的年化收益率参考意义有限，投资必须面向未来，从未来的高增长行业中发掘投资对象。\n用排除法来看，银行、建筑材料、地产、钢铁、采掘、有色、农林牧渔等行业增长空间有限，可纳入负面清单，在行业层面不予考虑（个股投资是另一回事）。在消费升级、人口老龄化、产品智能化、碳中和等发展主线下，食品饮料、非银金融（券商保险）、医药生物、智能制造、节能环保、休闲娱乐等领域前景广阔。\n如前所述，在增长前景看好的前提下，还要评估行业估值的合理性，以避免高价买入。\n本文以2016年以来的行业平均市盈率为基准市盈率，取当前市盈率与基准市盈率的比值为估值系数，估值系数越高，代表行业估值水平越高。以食品饮料为例，当前市盈率（20210531）为51倍，基准市盈率为33.7倍，估值系数高达151%，从估值的角度看，并非好的买点。\n\n按照估值系数从低到高排序，机械设备、国防军工、通信、传媒、电子、非银金融、计算机等行业估值水平仍低于平均值；相比之下，食品饮料、休闲服务等行业，虽然长期盈利增长可期，但当前估值水平较高，投资者需耐心等待，估值回落后再行买入。\n典型行业分析：医药生物\n需要注意的是，行业板块内部也会存在分化。比如汽车行业，整体属于周期性行业，但新能源汽车子板块则具有高成长属性；比如家用电器，传统家电增长放缓，但智能家电子板块则有很高的成长性，典型如扫地机器人，成长空间巨大。\n在当前市场中，医药行业备受关注，本文简单剖析下医药生物各个子行业的情况，供投资者决策参考。\n我们依旧把年化收益率分解为市盈率贡献和盈利贡献，着重看盈利贡献。站在盈利贡献的视角，2010-2020年间，医疗服务业表现惊艳，年化收益率高达21.1%；医疗器械紧跟其后，为18.6%；其后是生物制品、医药商业子板块；相比之下，中药、化学药板块表现非常平庸。\n\n盘点千亿市值以上的18只医疗股，过去五年、十年净利润复合增速普遍在20%以上，有些甚至能保持在40%以上，再次表明盈利增长才是产生牛股的土壤。从子行业分布看，生物制品子板块7家公司，医疗服务板块5家，医疗器械板块3家，中药2家，化学药仅1家上榜。\n\n从盈利增长的角度看，医疗服务、医疗器械、生物制品子板块是首选，那当前各板块的估值水平如何呢？\n与2016年以来平均市盈率相比，医疗器械子板块估值系数（当前市盈率/平均市盈率）仅为52%，医药商业（84%）、医疗服务（101%）、生物制品（104%）紧随其后，整体而言，都处于相对合理的水平。\n\n给投资者的启示\n价值投资强调买入并长期持有，但上市公司有自身的发展周期，有些公司能长期向好，但多数公司都慢慢变得平庸，其终局便是走向死亡。投资者若不能加以分辨，长期持股很容易陷入价值陷阱。\n所以，挑选有成长潜力的公司并动态评估其竞争力变化，便构成了长期持股的一道门槛，很多投资者被挡在门外。于是，巴菲特建议普通投资者定投指数，通过持有指数来分散个股风险，享受上市公司整体增长的收益。\n其实，还有一个更好的办法，就是精选行业。\n当前，中证指数公司已编制了200多个A股细分行业指数，很多指数都有对应的ETF和基金产品，投资者基于自己的能力圈，挑选几个有发展潜力的长寿行业，在估值合理的水平买入行业指数（行业基金或ETF），长期持有大概率能够跑赢市场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":149741954,"gmtCreate":1625750749578,"gmtModify":1703747765788,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"err","listText":"err","text":"err","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149741954","repostId":"1172733132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172733132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625711383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172733132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 10:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"anchor of global asset pricing\" plummeted, what happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172733132","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"10年期美债收益率连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低。对德尔塔变异毒株的担心，经济数据回落，美国债务上限临近重启，以及美联储的态度是主导近期美债收益率走势变化的关键因素。\n\n美国10年期国债收益率继续下行，","content":"<p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit an intraday low since February for the second consecutive day. Concerns about the Delta mutant strain, the decline in economic data, the approaching restart of the U.S. debt ceiling, and the attitude of the Federal Reserve are the key factors leading recent changes in U.S. bond yields. U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields continue to decline, reflecting not only investors' concerns about the prospects for U.S. economic growth, but also concerns about the highly contagious Delta variant strain.</p><p>At the beginning of the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, July 7, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield once fell below 1.30%.<b>For the second consecutive day, it hit a new intraday low since February, and it was also the first time since February this year that it fell below 1.30%.</b></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to remain low after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting were released. Federal Reserve officials are debating how and when to start tapering central bank support for the economy, minutes show.</p><p>As of late trading in New York, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield was close to 1.32%, down 3 basis points during the day, and was at the lowest level in the same period since February 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281f0ec1d91531e8662d1d147de1df8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Treasury Bond yields are a closely watched barometer of the economy, especially long-term bond yields: when the economic outlook improves, yields tend to rise; When the economic growth prospect wavers, it will go down.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, U.S. bond yields once rose sharply, but they have been falling in recent days. To some extent, it reflects that investors are reassessing their forecasts for economic recovery. At the same time, there are various signs that the U.S. Congress and the Federal Reserve seem to provide stimulus. The intensity may not be as strong as before.</p><p><b>The first factor comes from the Delta variant, a highly contagious strain that has cast a shadow over the economic recovery.</b></p><p>According to the latest data released by CDC in the United States, the Delta variant strain has become the main prevalent strain in the United States. In the two weeks ending July 3, the proportion of delta variant strain in the central part of new cases in the United States accounted for 51.7%.</p><p>Meanwhile, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said last week that there are still about 1,000 counties in the United States with vaccine coverage below 30%, most of which are in the southeast and midwest of the United States. The CDC in the United States has found that the incidence rate in these areas is rising as the Delta variant strain spreads further.</p><p><b>In addition, economic data also fell back, which means that the U.S. economy is recovering or slowing down.</b></p><p>The U.S. ISM service industry index for June released on July 6 was 60.1, lower than expected, and significantly lower than the historical high of 64 set in May. Among them, the employment sub-index turned from expansion to contraction, hitting a six-month low.</p><p><b>Some analysts believe that the US TGA account may also be a factor.</b></p><p>The U.S. debt ceiling will take effect at the end of July, which means the U.S. Treasury Department needs to reduce the balance of TGA accounts before then. MarketWatch quoted Aptus Capital Advisors fixed income analyst John Luke Tyner as saying that after accumulating a large amount of funds, TGA accounts are gradually decreasing, leading to a reduction in bond supply, which is a key factor in recent changes in bond yield trends.</p><p><b>Finally, of course, there is the attitude of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Minutes of the Fed's June meeting released overnight hinted that Fed officials expect the Fed to start tapering QE sooner than expected due to stronger-than-expected economic growth so far this year.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal said signs that the Federal Reserve may reduce Treasury Bond purchases or raise short-term interest rates could lead investors to sell bonds, thus pushing up yields. But in recent weeks, only short-term yields have risen, while long-term bond yields have fallen, suggesting investors are worried that tightening monetary policy may hurt the economic recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"anchor of global asset pricing\" plummeted, what happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"anchor of global asset pricing\" plummeted, what happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-08 10:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit an intraday low since February for the second consecutive day. Concerns about the Delta mutant strain, the decline in economic data, the approaching restart of the U.S. debt ceiling, and the attitude of the Federal Reserve are the key factors leading recent changes in U.S. bond yields. U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields continue to decline, reflecting not only investors' concerns about the prospects for U.S. economic growth, but also concerns about the highly contagious Delta variant strain.</p><p>At the beginning of the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, July 7, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield once fell below 1.30%.<b>For the second consecutive day, it hit a new intraday low since February, and it was also the first time since February this year that it fell below 1.30%.</b></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to remain low after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting were released. Federal Reserve officials are debating how and when to start tapering central bank support for the economy, minutes show.</p><p>As of late trading in New York, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield was close to 1.32%, down 3 basis points during the day, and was at the lowest level in the same period since February 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281f0ec1d91531e8662d1d147de1df8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Treasury Bond yields are a closely watched barometer of the economy, especially long-term bond yields: when the economic outlook improves, yields tend to rise; When the economic growth prospect wavers, it will go down.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, U.S. bond yields once rose sharply, but they have been falling in recent days. To some extent, it reflects that investors are reassessing their forecasts for economic recovery. At the same time, there are various signs that the U.S. Congress and the Federal Reserve seem to provide stimulus. The intensity may not be as strong as before.</p><p><b>The first factor comes from the Delta variant, a highly contagious strain that has cast a shadow over the economic recovery.</b></p><p>According to the latest data released by CDC in the United States, the Delta variant strain has become the main prevalent strain in the United States. In the two weeks ending July 3, the proportion of delta variant strain in the central part of new cases in the United States accounted for 51.7%.</p><p>Meanwhile, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said last week that there are still about 1,000 counties in the United States with vaccine coverage below 30%, most of which are in the southeast and midwest of the United States. The CDC in the United States has found that the incidence rate in these areas is rising as the Delta variant strain spreads further.</p><p><b>In addition, economic data also fell back, which means that the U.S. economy is recovering or slowing down.</b></p><p>The U.S. ISM service industry index for June released on July 6 was 60.1, lower than expected, and significantly lower than the historical high of 64 set in May. Among them, the employment sub-index turned from expansion to contraction, hitting a six-month low.</p><p><b>Some analysts believe that the US TGA account may also be a factor.</b></p><p>The U.S. debt ceiling will take effect at the end of July, which means the U.S. Treasury Department needs to reduce the balance of TGA accounts before then. MarketWatch quoted Aptus Capital Advisors fixed income analyst John Luke Tyner as saying that after accumulating a large amount of funds, TGA accounts are gradually decreasing, leading to a reduction in bond supply, which is a key factor in recent changes in bond yield trends.</p><p><b>Finally, of course, there is the attitude of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Minutes of the Fed's June meeting released overnight hinted that Fed officials expect the Fed to start tapering QE sooner than expected due to stronger-than-expected economic growth so far this year.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal said signs that the Federal Reserve may reduce Treasury Bond purchases or raise short-term interest rates could lead investors to sell bonds, thus pushing up yields. But in recent weeks, only short-term yields have risen, while long-term bond yields have fallen, suggesting investors are worried that tightening monetary policy may hurt the economic recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172733132","content_text":"10年期美债收益率连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低。对德尔塔变异毒株的担心，经济数据回落，美国债务上限临近重启，以及美联储的态度是主导近期美债收益率走势变化的关键因素。\n\n美国10年期国债收益率继续下行，不仅反映出投资者对美国经济增长前景的担忧，也反映了对传染性极强的德尔塔变异毒株的担心。\n7月7日周三美股盘初，美国10年期国债收益率一度降至1.30%下方，连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低，也是今年2月以来首次跌破1.30%。\n在美联储6月会议纪要公布后，10年期美债收益率继续维持在较低水平。纪要显示，美联储官员们正在就如何以及何时开始缩减央行对经济的支持展开辩论。\n截止纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率接近1.32%，日内降3个基点，处于2月18日以来同时段最低水平。\n\n国债收益率是一个受到密切关注的经济晴雨表，尤其是长期债券收益率：当经济前景改善时，收益率往往上行；而当经济增长前景动摇时，则会下行。\n今年一季度，美债收益率曾一度大幅攀升，然而近日以来却一路走低，某种程度上反映了投资者在重新评估对经济复苏的预测，同时各种迹象也显示美国国会和美联储似乎提供的刺激力度可能没有此前那样强劲。\n第一个因素来自德尔塔变异毒株，这种传染性极高的毒株给经济复苏蒙上了阴影。\n根据美国CDC最新公布的数据，德尔塔变异毒株已经成为美国主要流行的毒株。截至7月3日的两周内，美国新增病例中部德尔塔变异毒株的比例占到了51.7%。\n与此同时，美国CDC主任Rochelle Walensky上周表示，美国仍有约1000个县的疫苗覆盖率低于30%，这些县大部分位于美国东南部和中西部。美国CDC已经发现，随着德尔塔变异毒株的进一步传播，这些地区的发病率正在上升。\n此外，经济数据方面也出现回落，意味着美国经济复苏或放缓。\n7月6日公布的6月美国ISM服务业指数为60.1，低于预期，同时较5月创下的64这一历史高位显著回落。其中就业分项指数更是从扩张转为收缩，创下六个月新低。\n还有分析师认为，美国TGA账户可能也是一个因素。\n美国债务上限将在7月底生效，即美国财政部需要在此之前压降TGA账户余额。MarketWatch援引Aptus Capital Advisors固收分析师John Luke Tyner表示，TGA账户在积累了大量资金后，正在逐步减少，导致了债券供应量的减少，这是近期债券收益率走势变化的一个关键因素。\n最后当然是美联储的态度。\n隔夜公布的美联储6月会议纪要暗示，由于今年迄今为止经济增长强于预期，美联储官员们预计美联储能够比预期更早开始缩减QE。\n华尔街日报表示，美联储可能会减少国债购买或者提高短期利率的迹象，可能导致投资者抛售债券，从而推高收益率。但是最近几周，只有短期收益率上行，而长债收益率下行，这表明投资者担心货币政策收紧可能会损害经济复苏。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815296966,"gmtCreate":1630679166755,"gmtModify":1676530374930,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815296966","repostId":"1124577665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124577665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630636929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124577665?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With multiple risks coming, will U.S. stocks usher in big turmoil in September?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124577665","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"伴随9月到来，美股市场正面对着越来越多的潜在风险。","content":"<p><i>Since the end of World War II, the probability of the S&P 500 rising in September is only 45%. In addition to the historical background, there are also a series of major events with considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect the Fed's policy on September 22. The meeting has affected their plans to start reducing bond purchases within this year.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beafe1f53440c121923a321284d7b5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After seven consecutive months of rising, with the arrival of September, the U.S. stock market is facing more and more potential risks. Unfortunately, this month happens to be \"notorious\" in the history of the stock market-the worst month in history.</p><p>According to CFRA data, since the end of World War II, the probability of the S&P 500 rising in September is only 45%. In all these September months, the index fell by an average of 0.56%, ranking last among all months-in fact, except September and February, the average return rate of the index was positive.</p><p>At present, the overall view of Wall Street strategists is that although it is not certain that a setback or consolidation is imminent, the risks are undoubtedly accumulating. Specifically, changes in Fed policy, the accelerated spread of the Delta variant virus, and political risks may have a negative impact on the U.S. stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders said that although it is too mechanical to assume that the performance in September 2021 will follow historical trends, the risks are really hard to ignore. \"Are there a lot of risks, and at some point in the future, one of them may cause a 3% or 4% decline in the market? The answer is of course yes. Whether that time node may be September, the answer is of course yes.\"</p><p>A detailed analysis of historical data will reveal that if it is September of the first year of the president's term, the performance of U.S. stocks is even worse than average. On average, in September of these years, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.73%. CFRA also found that historical records show that if the S&P 500 index hits new highs in both July and August-just like this year-the index has only a 43% probability of rising in the following September, with an average performance of 0.74%.</p><p>In mid-August this year, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 3%, and as of the end of August, the year-to-date increase was 20.4%.</p><p><b>Risks are brewing</b></p><p>Specific to September this year, in addition to the historical background, there are also a series of major events with considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect The policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 22 affected the formulation of their plans to start reducing bond purchases within this year.</p><p>According to Dow Jones data, the current general expectation of economists is that the number of new jobs will reach 750,000 in August. Market observers explained that if the final results greatly exceed this expectation, the reduction of the Fed's original $120 billion per month bond purchase program may be intensified and accelerated, and they will most likely do so in September. The decision to reduce the tapering to begin within the year was announced at the meeting. On the contrary, if the employment data only meets expectations, or even falls short of expectations, the start time of the Fed's tapering may be delayed by several months.</p><p>Sanders' judgment is that the relatively weak employment data is not necessarily bad news for the U.S. stock market, because this data means that the Fed may delay the start of the reduction and conduct the reduction operation in a more cautious rather than drastic way. Although Fed President Jerome Powell emphasized last week that tapering the bond purchase program and rate hike are completely unrelated things, most market observers still tend to regard the former as a precursor to the latter.</p><p>Sanders explained that the future decisions of the Fed will depend on various economic data that are constantly being released. This means that the development of the epidemic and the corresponding impact on the economy will continue to be important factors affecting their decision-making. \"The final conclusion is indeed regrettable. In the final analysis, the performance of the market depends on the face of the epidemic.\"</p><p><b>Can normal return?</b></p><p>From another perspective, September is also regarded by many observers as a delicate time node that affects American emotions, that is, as students return to school, everyone will somewhat feel that life is returning to normal. At the same time, with the return of parents of school-age children to the labor force, and the official expiration of additional unemployment benefits, September is also an important node when the labor shortage situation is expected to improve.</p><p>However, due to the spread of the Delta variant virus, the U.S. economy is facing the threat of new variables. For example, many companies have delayed reopening their doors. At the same time, with the rise of the epidemic, many retail and catering enterprises have also suffered another decline in consumer passenger flow.</p><p>Julian Emanuel, head of BITG's equity and derivatives strategy department, said bluntly: \"Consumer confidence has been greatly shaken. This is not closely related to the specific situation of the epidemic. The key is that we had all expected that by September, life will basically return to normal.\"</p><p>Sanders of Charles Schwab said that for the U.S. stock market, under normal circumstances, the number one decider of the market in September should be the Federal Reserve, but at the same time, the epidemic also has the possibility of forcibly \"stealing the show\" and becoming the protagonist.</p><p>\"I think the back-to-school season this time is not as simple as psychological factors.\" Sanders said. \"People will be watching closely whether schools are kept open in places where vaccination rates are relatively low. It will cause further deterioration. Obviously, this is an epidemic risk that is closely related to time.\"</p><p>Emanuel said the market will also continue to pay close attention to the Fed to determine exactly how they are continuing to advance their bond purchase tapering plan.</p><p>\"All this is one of the biggest concerns at the September meeting. The reason why the market wants the Fed to announce the reduction of its operating schedule in advance is because if they don't, it probably means that they have already understood the impact of the epidemic on the economy. and the damage to the labor market (more than expected).\"</p><p>Another economic data that may impact the market in September is inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report will be released on September 14. Emmanuel explained that if inflation continues to be high, it could push up Treasury Bond yields, which is undoubtedly bad news for the stock market.</p><p>Emanuel said that the market will also pay attention to the time when the United States hits the debt ceiling and whether the infrastructure bill with a scale of several trillions of dollars can be passed. Congress is expected to start deliberating the latter in September.</p><p>Finally, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan also poses additional risks. Emmanuel said: \"All kinds of events happen one after another, which is likely to have long-term political consequences. If there are signs that there will be greater local turmoil, its impact will be intensified.\"</p><p><b>The worst month</b></p><p>Emmanuel's own expectation is that there will be a very impressive sell-off in the U.S. stock market in September. He pointed out that historical records show that September and October are often full of volatility.</p><p>\"Of course, this is not to say that the stock market is bound to fall, but from our point of view, the sentiment that as long as the Fed does not rate hike, the market will not fall is too widespread, and market participants are too complacent.\"</p><p>He believes that investors should take serious measures to protect themselves against possible declines, and suggests that everyone consider using options tools. \"We're not saying that you should be full of fear. What we're saying is that you have to be cautious. Your portfolio has made a considerable profit, and it's best to keep it.\"</p><p>Sanders also said that in fact, large-scale consolidation is commonplace for the market, but some investors feel that today's market is more resilient than before because mainstream indexes are constantly setting records. She said that what she was most worried about was all kinds of speculative bubbles. \"In areas such as MEME stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and virtual currencies, rotational consolidation and bear markets have actually emerged.\"</p><p>Sanders said that among the major sectors of the S&P 500 index, she currently gives only one sector of medical care an outperform rating. At present, she is looking for investment opportunities mainly based on factors, not sectors. For example, she is now studying the quality of different stocks, looking for good news such as free cash flow or higher earnings expectations.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With multiple risks coming, will U.S. stocks usher in big turmoil in September?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith multiple risks coming, will U.S. stocks usher in big turmoil in September?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Since the end of World War II, the probability of the S&P 500 rising in September is only 45%. In addition to the historical background, there are also a series of major events with considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect the Fed's policy on September 22. The meeting has affected their plans to start reducing bond purchases within this year.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beafe1f53440c121923a321284d7b5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After seven consecutive months of rising, with the arrival of September, the U.S. stock market is facing more and more potential risks. Unfortunately, this month happens to be \"notorious\" in the history of the stock market-the worst month in history.</p><p>According to CFRA data, since the end of World War II, the probability of the S&P 500 rising in September is only 45%. In all these September months, the index fell by an average of 0.56%, ranking last among all months-in fact, except September and February, the average return rate of the index was positive.</p><p>At present, the overall view of Wall Street strategists is that although it is not certain that a setback or consolidation is imminent, the risks are undoubtedly accumulating. Specifically, changes in Fed policy, the accelerated spread of the Delta variant virus, and political risks may have a negative impact on the U.S. stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders said that although it is too mechanical to assume that the performance in September 2021 will follow historical trends, the risks are really hard to ignore. \"Are there a lot of risks, and at some point in the future, one of them may cause a 3% or 4% decline in the market? The answer is of course yes. Whether that time node may be September, the answer is of course yes.\"</p><p>A detailed analysis of historical data will reveal that if it is September of the first year of the president's term, the performance of U.S. stocks is even worse than average. On average, in September of these years, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.73%. CFRA also found that historical records show that if the S&P 500 index hits new highs in both July and August-just like this year-the index has only a 43% probability of rising in the following September, with an average performance of 0.74%.</p><p>In mid-August this year, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 3%, and as of the end of August, the year-to-date increase was 20.4%.</p><p><b>Risks are brewing</b></p><p>Specific to September this year, in addition to the historical background, there are also a series of major events with considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect The policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 22 affected the formulation of their plans to start reducing bond purchases within this year.</p><p>According to Dow Jones data, the current general expectation of economists is that the number of new jobs will reach 750,000 in August. Market observers explained that if the final results greatly exceed this expectation, the reduction of the Fed's original $120 billion per month bond purchase program may be intensified and accelerated, and they will most likely do so in September. The decision to reduce the tapering to begin within the year was announced at the meeting. On the contrary, if the employment data only meets expectations, or even falls short of expectations, the start time of the Fed's tapering may be delayed by several months.</p><p>Sanders' judgment is that the relatively weak employment data is not necessarily bad news for the U.S. stock market, because this data means that the Fed may delay the start of the reduction and conduct the reduction operation in a more cautious rather than drastic way. Although Fed President Jerome Powell emphasized last week that tapering the bond purchase program and rate hike are completely unrelated things, most market observers still tend to regard the former as a precursor to the latter.</p><p>Sanders explained that the future decisions of the Fed will depend on various economic data that are constantly being released. This means that the development of the epidemic and the corresponding impact on the economy will continue to be important factors affecting their decision-making. \"The final conclusion is indeed regrettable. In the final analysis, the performance of the market depends on the face of the epidemic.\"</p><p><b>Can normal return?</b></p><p>From another perspective, September is also regarded by many observers as a delicate time node that affects American emotions, that is, as students return to school, everyone will somewhat feel that life is returning to normal. At the same time, with the return of parents of school-age children to the labor force, and the official expiration of additional unemployment benefits, September is also an important node when the labor shortage situation is expected to improve.</p><p>However, due to the spread of the Delta variant virus, the U.S. economy is facing the threat of new variables. For example, many companies have delayed reopening their doors. At the same time, with the rise of the epidemic, many retail and catering enterprises have also suffered another decline in consumer passenger flow.</p><p>Julian Emanuel, head of BITG's equity and derivatives strategy department, said bluntly: \"Consumer confidence has been greatly shaken. This is not closely related to the specific situation of the epidemic. The key is that we had all expected that by September, life will basically return to normal.\"</p><p>Sanders of Charles Schwab said that for the U.S. stock market, under normal circumstances, the number one decider of the market in September should be the Federal Reserve, but at the same time, the epidemic also has the possibility of forcibly \"stealing the show\" and becoming the protagonist.</p><p>\"I think the back-to-school season this time is not as simple as psychological factors.\" Sanders said. \"People will be watching closely whether schools are kept open in places where vaccination rates are relatively low. It will cause further deterioration. Obviously, this is an epidemic risk that is closely related to time.\"</p><p>Emanuel said the market will also continue to pay close attention to the Fed to determine exactly how they are continuing to advance their bond purchase tapering plan.</p><p>\"All this is one of the biggest concerns at the September meeting. The reason why the market wants the Fed to announce the reduction of its operating schedule in advance is because if they don't, it probably means that they have already understood the impact of the epidemic on the economy. and the damage to the labor market (more than expected).\"</p><p>Another economic data that may impact the market in September is inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report will be released on September 14. Emmanuel explained that if inflation continues to be high, it could push up Treasury Bond yields, which is undoubtedly bad news for the stock market.</p><p>Emanuel said that the market will also pay attention to the time when the United States hits the debt ceiling and whether the infrastructure bill with a scale of several trillions of dollars can be passed. Congress is expected to start deliberating the latter in September.</p><p>Finally, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan also poses additional risks. Emmanuel said: \"All kinds of events happen one after another, which is likely to have long-term political consequences. If there are signs that there will be greater local turmoil, its impact will be intensified.\"</p><p><b>The worst month</b></p><p>Emmanuel's own expectation is that there will be a very impressive sell-off in the U.S. stock market in September. He pointed out that historical records show that September and October are often full of volatility.</p><p>\"Of course, this is not to say that the stock market is bound to fall, but from our point of view, the sentiment that as long as the Fed does not rate hike, the market will not fall is too widespread, and market participants are too complacent.\"</p><p>He believes that investors should take serious measures to protect themselves against possible declines, and suggests that everyone consider using options tools. \"We're not saying that you should be full of fear. What we're saying is that you have to be cautious. Your portfolio has made a considerable profit, and it's best to keep it.\"</p><p>Sanders also said that in fact, large-scale consolidation is commonplace for the market, but some investors feel that today's market is more resilient than before because mainstream indexes are constantly setting records. She said that what she was most worried about was all kinds of speculative bubbles. \"In areas such as MEME stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and virtual currencies, rotational consolidation and bear markets have actually emerged.\"</p><p>Sanders said that among the major sectors of the S&P 500 index, she currently gives only one sector of medical care an outperform rating. At present, she is looking for investment opportunities mainly based on factors, not sectors. For example, she is now studying the quality of different stocks, looking for good news such as free cash flow or higher earnings expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lN2TWV92hFLiXRdDdT09dw\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598c94c6b6db0e39a9e952fd336db660","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lN2TWV92hFLiXRdDdT09dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124577665","content_text":"自第二次世界大战结束以来，标普500指数在9月间上涨的概率只有45%。除了历史背景之外，还有一系列重大事件，背后都隐藏着可观的风险，比如本周五将发布的8月就业报告，后者的具体表现很可能将直接影响到联储9月22日的政策会议，影响到他们在今年年内开始缩减购债操作的计划制定工作。\n\n\n在连续七个月上涨之后，伴随9月到来，美股市场正面对着越来越多的潜在风险，而不巧的是，这个月份在股市历史上恰好是“臭名昭著”——史上表现最差月份。\nCFRA的数据显示，自第二次世界大战结束以来，标普500指数在9月间上涨的概率只有45%，在所有这些9月当中,指数平均下跌0.56%，在所有月份当中排名倒数第一——事实上，除了9月和2月，其他月份当中，指数的平均回报率都是正数。\n目前，华尔街策略师们的整体看法是，虽然还不能确定一场回挫或者盘整已经迫在眉睫，但是风险毋庸置疑地正在不断累积。具体来说，诸如联储政策变化，德尔塔变种病毒的加速传播，以及政治风险等，都可能会使美股市场受到负面冲击。\n嘉信理财首席投资策略师桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）表示，虽然现在就假定2021年9月的表现会追随历史趋势未免过于机械，但是风险确实难以忽视。“是否存在着大量的风险，到了未来某一时刻，其中之一就可能造成市场3%或者4%的回挫？答案当然是肯定的。那个时间节点是否可能是9月，答案当然还是肯定的。”\n对历史数据进行细化分析就会发现，如果是总统任期第一年的9月，美股的表现甚至还要比平均水准更加糟糕。平均而言，在这些年头的9月当中，标普500指数的跌幅达到了0.73%。CFRA还发现，历史记录显示，如果标普500指数在7月和8月当中都创下了新高——就像今年一样——则指数在接下来的9月当中只有43%概率上涨，平均表现是下跌0.74%。\n今年8月当中，标普500指数上涨了近3%，截至8月底，年度迄今为止涨幅为20.4%。\n风险在酝\n具体到今年的9月，除了历史背景之外，还有一系列重大事件，背后都隐藏着可观的风险，比如本周五将发布的8月就业报告，后者的具体表现很可能将直接影响到联储9月22日的政策会议，影响到他们在今年年内开始缩减购债操作的计划制定工作。\n道琼斯的数据显示，经济学家们目前的普遍预期是，8月间新增就业人数将达到75万。市场观察家们解释说，如果最终发布的结果大幅度超出这个预期，联储原本每月1200亿美元的购债计划的缩减工作就可能会加大力度，加快速度，他们大概率会在9月会议上宣布缩减在年内开始的决定。相反，如果就业数据只是符合预期，甚至不及预期，联储的缩减启动时间点就可能往后拖若干个月。\n桑德斯的判断是，相对疲软的就业数据其实未必就是美股市场的坏消息，因为这数据就意味着联储可能会推迟缩减开始的时间，并且以更小心谨慎，而非大刀阔斧的方式进行缩减操作。虽然联储主席鲍威尔上周强调，缩减购债计划与加息是完全不相干的两件事，但是大多数市场观察家还是倾向于将前者视为后者的先声。\n桑德斯解释说，联储未来的决策都要看不断出炉的各种经济数据来确定。这也就意味着，疫情的发展，以及经济受到的相应影响，将持续成为影响他们决策的重要因素。“最后结论确实让人遗憾，市场的表现归根结底还是要看疫情的脸色。”\n常态能否归来\n从另外一个角度，9月也被许多观察家们视作一个影响美国人情绪的微妙时间节点，即，伴随学生返校，大家会多少产生一些生活正在回归常态的感觉。与此同时，伴随学龄儿童的家长得以重新回归劳动力大军，以及失业救济额外补贴正式宣告到期，9月还是一个劳动力短缺局面预计将得到改善的重要节点。\n只不过，由于德尔塔变种病毒的传播，美国经济正面临着全新变数的威胁，比如不少企业都已经推迟了重新开门的时间。与此同时，伴随疫情的抬头，众多零售和餐饮企业也都遭遇了消费客流再度回落的打击。\nBITG股票和衍生产品策略部门负责人伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）直言不讳：“消费者信心已经发生了重大动摇。这与疫情的具体情况倒是关系没有密切，关键在于，我们原本都曾经预计，到了9月，生活就将基本回归常态了。”\n嘉信理财的桑德斯表示，对于美股市场而言，正常情况下，9月行情的头号决定者应该是联储，但是与此同时，疫情也完全有强行“抢戏”，成为主角的可能性。\n“我认为，这一次的返校季节可不是单纯的心理因素那么简单。”桑德斯表示，“人们将密切关注的是，在那些疫苗接种率相对较低的地方，学校保持开放状态，是否会造成局面的进一步恶化。显然，这是一项与时间密切相关的疫情风险。”\n伊曼纽尔表示，市场还将继续密切关注联储，以确定他们到底是如何持续推进其购债缩减计划的。\n“这一切正是9月会议上，人们最关注的问题之一，市场之所以希望联储提前宣布缩减操作日程表，是因为如果他们没有宣布，就很可能是意味着他们已经了解了疫情对经济和劳动力市场的损害（超过了预期）。”\n9月另外一种可能给市场造成冲击的经济数据则是通货膨胀数据。消费者价格指数报告将在9月14日发布。伊曼纽尔解释说，如果通货膨胀继续高企，就可能推高国债收益率，而这对于股市无疑是个坏消息。\n伊曼纽尔表示，市场同时还会关注美国触及债务上限的时间点，以及规模达到若干万亿美元的基础设施法案是否能够通过，预计国会9月就将展开对后者的审议。\n最后，美国从阿富汗的撤军也带来了额外的风险。伊曼纽尔表示：“各种事件接二连三地发生，很可能会造成较为长期的政治后果，如果有迹象显示当地将发生更大的动荡，则其影响还将变本加厉。”\n最糟的月份\n伊曼纽尔自己的预期是，9月间，美股市场上将发生一波非常可观的抛售行情，他指出，历史记录显示，9月和10月经常都是充满波动的。\n“当然这不是说股市必然要下跌，但是从我们的角度看去，认定只要联储不加息，市场就不会下跌的情绪弥漫太过广泛，市场参与者太过志得意满了。”\n他认为投资者应该认真采取措施，针对可能的下跌保护好自己，并建议大家考虑使用期权工具。“我们并不是说，你理应满怀恐惧。我们要说的是，你必须谨慎从事。你的投资组合已经取得了可观的利得，最好能够保住。”\n桑德斯也说，其实大规模的盘整对于市场而言本来就是家常便饭，只是一些投资者因为主流指数现在都在不断创下纪录，而觉得今日市场的弹力超过以往而已。她说，自己最担心的就是各种投机泡沫。“在MEME股票、特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）和虚拟货币等领域，轮动性盘整和熊市其实已经出现。”\n桑德斯说，在标普500指数各大板块当中，她目前只给予了医疗卫生一个板块以超越表现评级。目前，她寻找投资机会主要是基于因素，而不是基于板块了。比如，她现在正在研究各只不同个股的品质，寻找自由现金流或者盈利预期调升等利好消息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893463326,"gmtCreate":1628295962365,"gmtModify":1703504612411,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bj","listText":"Bj","text":"Bj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893463326","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163588560,"gmtCreate":1623888972750,"gmtModify":1703822474762,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163588560","repostId":"1158977040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105393994,"gmtCreate":1620267693018,"gmtModify":1704341069860,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh yeah","listText":"Oh yeah","text":"Oh yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105393994","repostId":"1136899287","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136899287","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1620260915,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136899287?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-06 08:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Global Market Holiday Performance at a Glance! Top international investment banks foresee a red May in China's stock market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136899287","media":"Wind万得","summary":"五一小长假顺利过完，虽然A股休市，但欧美市场、港股均正常交易。假期全球其他市场表现如何，或对节后A股有一定的影响。\n瑞银和高盛策略师均认为，现在应该买入中国股票，中国股市将迎来“红五月”。高盛策略师们","content":"<p>The May Day holiday passed smoothly. Although the A-share market was closed, the European and American markets and Hong Kong stocks were trading normally. The performance of other global markets during the holiday may have a certain impact on A-shares after the holiday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategists believe that,<b>It's time to buy Chinese stocks now, and the Chinese stock market will usher in a \"red May\". Goldman Sachs strategists expect the MSCI China Index to rise by 18% in the next 12 months.</b></p><p><b>//Global market holiday performance at a glance//</b></p><p>Wind data shows that the stock markets in the world's major capital markets were widely diverged in the first three trading days of this week. Among them, the three major US stocks<b>The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a slight rise of 1.05%, hitting another record high. The Nasdaq index ranked first with a sharp drop of 2.72%.</b>In addition, the S&P 500 also fell 0.32%. In addition, the three major European stock indexes, the German DAX index,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index and the French CAC40 index all closed with slight gains.<b>In the Asia-Pacific market, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 1.07%, and South Korea's Composite Index retreated by 0.02%.</b></p><p>Compared with the mixed ups and downs of many stock markets, many varieties in the commodity market have gone up strongly. Wind market shows that LME copper continues to stage a bull market.<b>On May 5, it exceeded US $10,000/ton in intraday trading.</b>It is going further and further to a new high in more than 10 years, not far from the historical high of US $10,190/ton. In addition, the strong BDI index (Baltic Dry Bulk Index) also hit a new high in more than 10 years, reporting 3157 points.<b>It rose sharply by 3.41% compared to before the holiday.</b></p><p>In addition, LME aluminum also rose and continued to rise, hitting a new high in more than three years.<b>The first three trading days of the week rose sharply by 2.11%. Crude oil also rose sharply by 2.72% during the May Day holiday, while gold and silver also closed with sharp gains.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6654a4b336d41b21854a08e158f0364b\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"1093\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>//Institutions are optimistic about the market outlook//</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>He said that looking forward to May, both macro-level economic data and micro-level financial report data of listed companies show that the current economy is still growing strongly, and the upward trend of the market has not changed. From a structural point of view, the probability of further relying on valuation increases to obtain stock price increases in 2021 is extremely low.<b>The market characteristics of the follow-up market are mainly to find varieties with sufficient upward elasticity in profits.</b></p><p>Zhongshan Securities pointed out that in the absence of major policy adjustments or the influence of black swan events, it is expected that the A-share market will gradually return to rationality, and it will return to the mode of high-quality enterprise performance growth driving stock price rises in the future.<b>In the short term, it will continue to be in the stage of valuation digestion, and it will still be dominated by horizontal shocks. However, in the environment of stable economic recovery as a whole, the positive trend in the medium and long term will remain unchanged.</b></p><p>Bohai Securities analysts Song Yiwei and Yan Peipei released a research report saying that in terms of market strategy, in terms of the first quarterly report of funds, the scale of partial equity funds increased significantly, while the position dropped by 0.78 percentage points to 77.1%, which was at a relatively low level since 2018Q4. Under the background of the obvious switch of market style in the first quarter, the industry allocation of partial stock funds also showed a certain switch between high and low, mainly increasing the allocation of banking, chemical industry, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics industries, and reducing the allocation of electrical equipment, non-bank finance, household appliances and other industries. In terms of market judgment, this year's macro-level environment of \"performance\" and \"valuation\" makes it easier for the market to form a volatile market. Looking at the stages,<b>The shrinking characteristics of stock supply and demand and the capital market regulatory policy's consideration of multiple objectives such as risk prevention and smooth operation of the capital market are also conducive to the formation of a stable stage of the capital market, so it continues the previous judgment on the volatile capital market.</b></p><p><b>//Where is the configuration direction in May?  //</b></p><p>Zhang Qiyao, the investment strategy of Guosheng Securities, believes that the main contradiction in the market this year lies in the sustainability of economic recovery, which may be divided into two situations: 1) If the economy continues to fail to meet expectations, especially if the overseas economic recovery momentum does not meet expectations, it will have a negative impact on domestic exports. and the pull of manufacturing industry has weakened. Under such circumstances, monetary policy is expected to change from tight to loose.<b>Faster drive the market style to benefit from denominator-driven technology growth and core assets and other sectors</b>； 2) If the subsequent economic recovery maintains strong momentum, PPI will continue to be at a high level, and corporate profits, especially midstream and upstream companies, will maintain high prosperity. In this case, then<b>The cyclical sector is expected to usher in repair again.</b>But at present, there are big differences between macro data and market expectations, and more time and evidence are needed to judge the subsequent economic trend. Therefore, the staged market will still be in the window of bottom-up selection structure. The change point will not appear until the economic clues become clearer in June and July.</p><p>Bohai Securities analysts Song Yiwei and Yan Peipei analyzed that in terms of allocation,<b>Continue to recommend sectors with low valuations and low sentiments, and it is recommended to pay attention to computers, communications, banking, real estate, and transportation sectors.</b>The above-mentioned sectors are more based on the tactical thinking of phased defense. From a longer-term strategic perspective, it is necessary to return to the goal of building a domestic circulation as the main body, solve the long-term bottleneck problem and forge the long board of technology. The primary investment direction of economic and social resources is for science and technology (including chips, high-end equipment manufacturing, biomedicine,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving, etc.), carbon neutrality (photovoltaics, wind power, new energy vehicles, etc.), military industry and other fields, pay attention to whether the valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and re-judge allocation opportunities from a longer-term perspective.</p><p>Galaxy Securities Research Institute compiled statistics on the rise and fall of various industry sectors in May from 2011 to 2020. The data shows that,<b>In the past decade, the food and beverage and household appliances sectors rose the most times in May, with 8 times; Among them, the food and beverage sector ranked first in the industry growth list in May three times in the past ten years.</b></p><p>Overall, the \"Sell in May\" effect of consumer industries such as household appliances and food and beverages is weak. In some years, the food and beverage sector has become a safe haven in the general decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>He said that in May, the market style turned to defensive, with home appliances, food and beverages, medicine, etc. rising in the highest probability. In addition, under the background of the \"May Day\" holiday, the probability of leisure services rising is also among the highest.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4bedfa195ef4f151c66b60971b5482\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CMB International's strategy report pointed out that after digesting the risks of inflation, rising bond yields and tightening monetary policy, it is expected that the sentiment of Hong Kong stock market will gradually improve.<b>Looking ahead to the second half of 2021, growth stocks are expected to outperform cyclical stocks again. We are also optimistic about the technology sector.</b></p><p><b>Avoid upstream resource stocks.</b>Commodities have benefited from the economic recovery and rising energy and metal prices, but we think the stock price may have fully reflected the positive factors. Sooner or later, supply bottlenecks will be resolved.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Market Holiday Performance at a Glance! Top international investment banks foresee a red May in China's stock market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Market Holiday Performance at a Glance! Top international investment banks foresee a red May in China's stock market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-06 08:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday passed smoothly. Although the A-share market was closed, the European and American markets and Hong Kong stocks were trading normally. The performance of other global markets during the holiday may have a certain impact on A-shares after the holiday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategists believe that,<b>It's time to buy Chinese stocks now, and the Chinese stock market will usher in a \"red May\". Goldman Sachs strategists expect the MSCI China Index to rise by 18% in the next 12 months.</b></p><p><b>//Global market holiday performance at a glance//</b></p><p>Wind data shows that the stock markets in the world's major capital markets were widely diverged in the first three trading days of this week. Among them, the three major US stocks<b>The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a slight rise of 1.05%, hitting another record high. The Nasdaq index ranked first with a sharp drop of 2.72%.</b>In addition, the S&P 500 also fell 0.32%. In addition, the three major European stock indexes, the German DAX index,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index and the French CAC40 index all closed with slight gains.<b>In the Asia-Pacific market, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 1.07%, and South Korea's Composite Index retreated by 0.02%.</b></p><p>Compared with the mixed ups and downs of many stock markets, many varieties in the commodity market have gone up strongly. Wind market shows that LME copper continues to stage a bull market.<b>On May 5, it exceeded US $10,000/ton in intraday trading.</b>It is going further and further to a new high in more than 10 years, not far from the historical high of US $10,190/ton. In addition, the strong BDI index (Baltic Dry Bulk Index) also hit a new high in more than 10 years, reporting 3157 points.<b>It rose sharply by 3.41% compared to before the holiday.</b></p><p>In addition, LME aluminum also rose and continued to rise, hitting a new high in more than three years.<b>The first three trading days of the week rose sharply by 2.11%. Crude oil also rose sharply by 2.72% during the May Day holiday, while gold and silver also closed with sharp gains.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6654a4b336d41b21854a08e158f0364b\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"1093\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>//Institutions are optimistic about the market outlook//</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>He said that looking forward to May, both macro-level economic data and micro-level financial report data of listed companies show that the current economy is still growing strongly, and the upward trend of the market has not changed. From a structural point of view, the probability of further relying on valuation increases to obtain stock price increases in 2021 is extremely low.<b>The market characteristics of the follow-up market are mainly to find varieties with sufficient upward elasticity in profits.</b></p><p>Zhongshan Securities pointed out that in the absence of major policy adjustments or the influence of black swan events, it is expected that the A-share market will gradually return to rationality, and it will return to the mode of high-quality enterprise performance growth driving stock price rises in the future.<b>In the short term, it will continue to be in the stage of valuation digestion, and it will still be dominated by horizontal shocks. However, in the environment of stable economic recovery as a whole, the positive trend in the medium and long term will remain unchanged.</b></p><p>Bohai Securities analysts Song Yiwei and Yan Peipei released a research report saying that in terms of market strategy, in terms of the first quarterly report of funds, the scale of partial equity funds increased significantly, while the position dropped by 0.78 percentage points to 77.1%, which was at a relatively low level since 2018Q4. Under the background of the obvious switch of market style in the first quarter, the industry allocation of partial stock funds also showed a certain switch between high and low, mainly increasing the allocation of banking, chemical industry, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics industries, and reducing the allocation of electrical equipment, non-bank finance, household appliances and other industries. In terms of market judgment, this year's macro-level environment of \"performance\" and \"valuation\" makes it easier for the market to form a volatile market. Looking at the stages,<b>The shrinking characteristics of stock supply and demand and the capital market regulatory policy's consideration of multiple objectives such as risk prevention and smooth operation of the capital market are also conducive to the formation of a stable stage of the capital market, so it continues the previous judgment on the volatile capital market.</b></p><p><b>//Where is the configuration direction in May?  //</b></p><p>Zhang Qiyao, the investment strategy of Guosheng Securities, believes that the main contradiction in the market this year lies in the sustainability of economic recovery, which may be divided into two situations: 1) If the economy continues to fail to meet expectations, especially if the overseas economic recovery momentum does not meet expectations, it will have a negative impact on domestic exports. and the pull of manufacturing industry has weakened. Under such circumstances, monetary policy is expected to change from tight to loose.<b>Faster drive the market style to benefit from denominator-driven technology growth and core assets and other sectors</b>； 2) If the subsequent economic recovery maintains strong momentum, PPI will continue to be at a high level, and corporate profits, especially midstream and upstream companies, will maintain high prosperity. In this case, then<b>The cyclical sector is expected to usher in repair again.</b>But at present, there are big differences between macro data and market expectations, and more time and evidence are needed to judge the subsequent economic trend. Therefore, the staged market will still be in the window of bottom-up selection structure. The change point will not appear until the economic clues become clearer in June and July.</p><p>Bohai Securities analysts Song Yiwei and Yan Peipei analyzed that in terms of allocation,<b>Continue to recommend sectors with low valuations and low sentiments, and it is recommended to pay attention to computers, communications, banking, real estate, and transportation sectors.</b>The above-mentioned sectors are more based on the tactical thinking of phased defense. From a longer-term strategic perspective, it is necessary to return to the goal of building a domestic circulation as the main body, solve the long-term bottleneck problem and forge the long board of technology. The primary investment direction of economic and social resources is for science and technology (including chips, high-end equipment manufacturing, biomedicine,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving, etc.), carbon neutrality (photovoltaics, wind power, new energy vehicles, etc.), military industry and other fields, pay attention to whether the valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and re-judge allocation opportunities from a longer-term perspective.</p><p>Galaxy Securities Research Institute compiled statistics on the rise and fall of various industry sectors in May from 2011 to 2020. The data shows that,<b>In the past decade, the food and beverage and household appliances sectors rose the most times in May, with 8 times; Among them, the food and beverage sector ranked first in the industry growth list in May three times in the past ten years.</b></p><p>Overall, the \"Sell in May\" effect of consumer industries such as household appliances and food and beverages is weak. In some years, the food and beverage sector has become a safe haven in the general decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>He said that in May, the market style turned to defensive, with home appliances, food and beverages, medicine, etc. rising in the highest probability. In addition, under the background of the \"May Day\" holiday, the probability of leisure services rising is also among the highest.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4bedfa195ef4f151c66b60971b5482\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CMB International's strategy report pointed out that after digesting the risks of inflation, rising bond yields and tightening monetary policy, it is expected that the sentiment of Hong Kong stock market will gradually improve.<b>Looking ahead to the second half of 2021, growth stocks are expected to outperform cyclical stocks again. We are also optimistic about the technology sector.</b></p><p><b>Avoid upstream resource stocks.</b>Commodities have benefited from the economic recovery and rising energy and metal prices, but we think the stock price may have fully reflected the positive factors. Sooner or later, supply bottlenecks will be resolved.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136899287","content_text":"五一小长假顺利过完，虽然A股休市，但欧美市场、港股均正常交易。假期全球其他市场表现如何，或对节后A股有一定的影响。\n瑞银和高盛策略师均认为，现在应该买入中国股票，中国股市将迎来“红五月”。高盛策略师们预计MSCI中国指数未来12个月将上涨18%。\n//全球市场假期表现一览  //\nWind数据显示，本周前三个交易日，全球主要资本市场的股市分歧较大。其中美三大股指道琼斯工业指数较强以小幅上涨1.05%收盘，再创历史新高。而纳斯达克指数以大幅下跌2.72%位居跌幅首位，此外标普500也小跌0.32%。另外欧洲三大股指德国DAX指数，英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数均以小幅上涨收盘。亚太市场，香港恒生指数小幅下跌1.07%，韩国综合指数回探0.02%。\n与多个股市涨跌不一相比，商品市场多个品种强劲上攻。Wind行情显示，LME铜继续上演小牛市行情，5月5日盘中突破10000美元/吨，在10多年新高上越走越远，离历史最高点10190美元/吨相距不远。此外强劲的还有BDI指数（波罗的海干散货指数）也创出10多年新高，报3157点，相对于节前大幅上涨3.41%。\n另外LME铝也涨势一片，继续走高，创3年多新高，本周前三个交易日大幅上涨2.11%。原油五一假期也大幅上涨2.72%，而黄金、白银同样以大幅上涨报收。\n\n//机构看好后市  //\n国信证券表示，展望5月，宏观层面经济数据与微观层面上市公司财报数据均显示出当前经济仍在延续强劲的增长态势，行情向上的趋势未变。从结构上看，2021年进一步依靠估值提升获得股价上涨的概率极低，后续行情的市场特征主要是要寻找盈利向上弹性够大的品种。\n中山证券指出，在无大的政策调整或是黑天鹅事件影响下，预计A股市场将逐渐回归理性，后续将回到优质企业业绩增长推动股价上涨的模式，短期内将继续处于估值消化阶段，依旧以横向震荡为主，但在经济整体稳定复苏的环境下，中长期向好趋势不变。\n渤海证券分析师宋亦威、严佩佩发布研报称，市场策略方面，基金一季报方面，偏股型基金的规模大幅增加，与此同时仓位下降0.78个百分点至77.1%，处于2018Q4以来的相对低位。在一季度市场风格出现明显切换的背景下，偏股型基金的行业配置也呈现出一定的高低切换，主要增配银行、化工、医药生物、电子行业，减配电气设备、非银金融、家用电器等行业。在市场判断方面，今年宏观层面导致的“业绩上”、“估值下”的大环境，使市场更容易形成震荡市。而阶段性看，股票供需的缩量特征和资本市场监管政策对防风险、资本市场平稳运行等多目标的兼顾，也有利于资本市场的平稳阶段形成，因此延续此前对资本市场震荡市的判断。\n//5月配置方向在哪？  //\n国盛证券投资策略张启尧分析认为，今年市场的主要矛盾在于经济复苏的持续性，后面可能分为两种情形：1）如果经济持续不达预期，尤其是海外经济复苏动力不达预期，对国内出口和制造业的拉动弱化。在此种情形下，货币政策有望出现由紧转松的变化，更快带动市场风格转向受益分母端驱动的科技成长和核心资产等板块；2）若后续经济复苏维持较强动能，PPI持续处于高位，企业盈利尤其是中上游企业维持高景气。在此种情形下，则周期板块有望再次迎来修复。但当前来看，宏观数据和市场预期都存在较大分歧，需要更多的时间和证据判断后续的经济走势。因此，阶段性市场仍将处于自下而上精选结构的窗口。变局点要到6、7月经济的线索更加明朗之后再出现。\n渤海证券分析师宋亦威、严佩佩分析认为，配置方面，继续推荐估值低位及情绪低位的板块，建议关注计算机、通信、银行、房地产、交运板块。上述板块更多是基于阶段性防御的战术思想，而从更长期的战略视野看，要回到构建以国内大循环为主体的目标上来，解决长期卡脖子的问题和锻造技术长板，是未来经济社会资源的首要投入方向，对于科技（包括芯片、高端装备制造、生物医药、智能驾驶等）、碳中和（光伏、风电、新能源车等）、军工等领域，关注估值是否已回归到合理水平，抱着更长期的视角进行配置机会的再判断。\n银河证券研究所统计了2011年至2020年各行业板块5月份涨跌幅，数据显示，过去十年中食品饮料和家用电器板块在5月上涨次数最多，为8次；其中食品饮料板块在过去十年中有3次位居5月行业涨幅榜首。\n整体来看，家用电器、食品饮料等消费类行业“Sell in May”效应表现较弱。在部分年份，食品饮料板块成为普跌行情中的避风港。浙商证券表示，5月份市场风格转向防御，家电、食品饮料、医药等上涨概率居前。此外，“五一”假期背景下，休闲服务上涨概率也居前。\n\n招银国际策略报告则指出，在消化了通胀和债券孳息率上升以及紧缩银根的风险之后，预计香港股市情绪将逐渐好转。展望2021年下半年，预计成长股将再次跑赢周期股。我们对科技板块亦乐观。\n避免上游资源股。大宗商品受益于经济复苏及能源和金属价格上涨，但是我们认为股价可能已经完全反映了利好因素。供应瓶颈迟早会得到解决。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DXD":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"HGmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"content":"[smile] [smile] [smile]","text":"[smile] [smile] [smile]","html":"[smile] [smile] [smile]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837322111,"gmtCreate":1629858545033,"gmtModify":1676530154125,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837322111","repostId":"2162387390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2162387390","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629858360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162387390?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-25 10:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"After buying the bottom of JD.com, \"Sister Wood\" expressed her position: she is not pessimistic about China","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162387390","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"几乎已经清仓中概股的ARK基金，本周开始出手抄底买入京东股票，该基金创始人“木头姐”最新表态称：对中国并不悲观。\nArk Investment创始人、有科技股女股神之称的Cathie Wood周二在接","content":"<p>ARK Fund, which has almost cleared its positions in Chinese concept stocks, began to buy at the bottom this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Stocks, the founder of the fund \"Sister Wood\" lately stated that she is not pessimistic about China.</p><p>Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment and known as the female goddess of technology stocks, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday:</p><p><b>\"In the long run, I'm not pessimistic about China because I think they are a very entrepreneurial society.\"</b>Wood said that the Chinese government is formulating more rules and regulations, but the government's purpose is not to stop growth and progress.</p><p>The latest disclosed data shows that ARK's automatic &<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Technology ETF (ARKQ) bought more than 160,000 shares of JD ADR on Monday,<b>It reversed the continuous selling trend since the end of July.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba01ecec77377314f0598c9caadf2456\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>As of Tuesday, ARKQ held $86.17 million in JD.com shares, accounting for 3.22% of its position in the ETF, making it its ninth largest position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3dccaf72955102a69b8a5080d87c3db\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, JD.com's stock has fallen by nearly 13%. After announcing a strong earnings report on Monday, JD.com's share price rebounded strongly, rising 14% overnight.<b>ARKQ also conducted bottom-hunting after JD.com announced its eye-catching financial report.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d796d9299aa03662c774ddd14756d6c0\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that financial report data showed that JD.com's revenue in the second quarter was 253.8 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 244.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.23%; The adjusted income per ADS in the second quarter was 2.90 yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2.12 yuan;</p><p>In terms of active users, as of June 30, 2021, the number of active purchasing users of JD.com in the past 12 months reached 532 million, exceeding the market estimate of 520.9 million, a net increase of 115 million compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 32 million in a single quarter. The highest increase in history.</p><p>The past has been a year of ups and downs for Wood and Ark. In 2020, under the east wind of the bull market in U.S. technology stocks, ARK's flagship fund ARKK achieved an astonishing return of 149%.</p><p><b>However, since entering 2021, with the correction of technology stocks, ARKK's performance has been sluggish. It has fallen by 2.9% this year. It was once redeemed by investors and was shorted by hedge funds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a0e581ee3758d2aa1dfdc00b1114d3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After buying the bottom of JD.com, \"Sister Wood\" expressed her position: she is not pessimistic about China</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter buying the bottom of JD.com, \"Sister Wood\" expressed her position: she is not pessimistic about China\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>ARK Fund, which has almost cleared its positions in Chinese concept stocks, began to buy at the bottom this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Stocks, the founder of the fund \"Sister Wood\" lately stated that she is not pessimistic about China.</p><p>Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment and known as the female goddess of technology stocks, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday:</p><p><b>\"In the long run, I'm not pessimistic about China because I think they are a very entrepreneurial society.\"</b>Wood said that the Chinese government is formulating more rules and regulations, but the government's purpose is not to stop growth and progress.</p><p>The latest disclosed data shows that ARK's automatic &<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Technology ETF (ARKQ) bought more than 160,000 shares of JD ADR on Monday,<b>It reversed the continuous selling trend since the end of July.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba01ecec77377314f0598c9caadf2456\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>As of Tuesday, ARKQ held $86.17 million in JD.com shares, accounting for 3.22% of its position in the ETF, making it its ninth largest position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3dccaf72955102a69b8a5080d87c3db\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, JD.com's stock has fallen by nearly 13%. After announcing a strong earnings report on Monday, JD.com's share price rebounded strongly, rising 14% overnight.<b>ARKQ also conducted bottom-hunting after JD.com announced its eye-catching financial report.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d796d9299aa03662c774ddd14756d6c0\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that financial report data showed that JD.com's revenue in the second quarter was 253.8 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 244.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.23%; The adjusted income per ADS in the second quarter was 2.90 yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2.12 yuan;</p><p>In terms of active users, as of June 30, 2021, the number of active purchasing users of JD.com in the past 12 months reached 532 million, exceeding the market estimate of 520.9 million, a net increase of 115 million compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 32 million in a single quarter. The highest increase in history.</p><p>The past has been a year of ups and downs for Wood and Ark. In 2020, under the east wind of the bull market in U.S. technology stocks, ARK's flagship fund ARKK achieved an astonishing return of 149%.</p><p><b>However, since entering 2021, with the correction of technology stocks, ARKK's performance has been sluggish. It has fallen by 2.9% this year. It was once redeemed by investors and was shorted by hedge funds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a0e581ee3758d2aa1dfdc00b1114d3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638794\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638794","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162387390","content_text":"几乎已经清仓中概股的ARK基金，本周开始出手抄底买入京东股票，该基金创始人“木头姐”最新表态称：对中国并不悲观。\nArk Investment创始人、有科技股女股神之称的Cathie Wood周二在接受彭博采访中表示：\n\n“从长远来看，我对中国并不悲观，因为我认为他们是一个非常具有创业精神的社会。”\n\nWood称，中国政府正在制定更多的规章制度，但政府的目的并不想阻止增长和进步。\n最新披露的数据显示，ARK旗下的自动&机器人技术ETF (ARKQ)于周一买入了超过16万股的京东ADR，扭转了7月底以来连续抛售的态势。\n\n截至周二，ARKQ持有8617万美元的京东股票，在该ETF中的持仓占比为3.22%，为其第九大持仓。\n\n年初至今，京东股票累计下跌了近13%。在周一公布了强劲财报后，京东股价强势反弹，隔夜大涨14%。ARKQ也是在京东公布亮眼财报后进行了抄底。\n\n华尔街见闻此前提及，财报数据显示，京东第二季度营收2538亿元，超市场预期2440.26亿元，同比增长26.23%；第二季度调整后每ADS收益2.90元，超市场预期的2.12元；\n在活跃用户方面， 截至2021年6月30日，京东过去12个月的活跃购买用户数达到5.32亿，超市场预估的5.209亿，较去年同期净增了1.15亿，单季新增3200万创下历史最高增量。\n对Wood和Ark来说，过去是跌宕起伏的一年。2020年在美国科技股大牛市的东风下，方舟旗舰基金ARKK取得了149%的惊人回报。\n但进入2021年来，随着科技股回调，ARKK表现萎靡，今年以来累计下跌2.9%，一度遭遇投资者大举赎回，并被对冲基金争相做空。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"JD":0.9,"ARKF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173980676,"gmtCreate":1626599094395,"gmtModify":1703762216189,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;haha","listText":"&nbsp;haha","text":"haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173980676","repostId":"1172207687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144573333,"gmtCreate":1626307981622,"gmtModify":1703757472971,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok&nbsp;","listText":"Okok&nbsp;","text":"Okok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144573333","repostId":"1170720172","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170720172","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626302587,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170720172?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 06:43","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Summary of key points from Powell's semi-annual monetary policy hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170720172","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美联储主席鲍威尔周三在众议院听证会上作半年度货币政策报告时表示，美国经济复苏还没有达到可以开始收缩资产购买规模的程度，补充称未来几个月通胀率可能会保持较高水平，然后和缓下来。关于央行数字货币（CBDC","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in his semi-annual monetary policy report at a House hearing on Wednesday that the U.S. economic recovery has not yet reached the point where it can begin to shrink asset purchases, adding that inflation is likely to remain high in the coming months and then moderate. down. Regarding the central bank digital currency (CBDC), Powell expects the Federal Reserve to release a central bank digital currency report in early September, which will explain the pros and cons of CBDC.</p><p>The following are the main contents of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee:</p><p><b>1. U.S. economy/inflation:</b></p><p>① The latest inflation data is higher than expected. The inflation rate is currently well above 2%. If inflation expectations continue to be higher than 2%, the Federal Reserve will take action.</p><p>② Monetary policy should still be highly loose, and one of the conditions for rate hike is that the economy is within the range of full employment.</p><p>③ At some point, if the inflation data does not decline, the Fed's description of inflation will \"reverse\".</p><p>④ The Fed is uncertain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>The inflation is \"temporary\", but still believe it to be a fact.</p><p>⑤ The issue of asset purchase will continue to be discussed at the FOMC meeting in July.</p><p>⑥ Reiterate that the Federal Reserve will give a notice before starting to reduce the scale of bond purchases. ⑦ Investment in good infrastructure can increase economic potential.</p><p><b>2. Job market:</b></p><p>① It is too early to say whether increasing unemployment benefits will hinder employment.</p><p>② The factors hindering employment will pass, and there will be strong employment growth.</p><p>③ Be patient with employment issues, and you will be able to return to the unemployment rate of 3.5%.</p><p><b>3. Digital currency:</b></p><p>① It is expected that the digital currency report will be released in early September.</p><p>② The risks faced by digital currency are real.</p><p>③ Stablecoins need an appropriate regulatory framework, and stablecoins need to be regulated in a way similar to money markets and bank deposits.</p><p>④ Decisions about digital currency are being accelerated.</p><p>⑤ Central bank digital currencies may rule out the demand for stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, which is a strong argument in support of it.</p><p><b>4. American real estate:</b></p><p>① Housing prices in the United States are rising at a very high rate.</p><p>② The reason of supply and demand leads to the increase of housing prices.</p><p>③ The real estate market will be a factor for the Federal Reserve to discuss the tapering plan and its composition.</p><p>④ Even if mortgage rates rise, there will still be a lot of housing demand.</p><p><b>5. Others:</b></p><p>① Global semiconductor supply shortages have hindered automobile production/output by 2021.</p><p>② The Federal Reserve wants financial institutions to be aware of climate risks.</p><p>③ The Federal Reserve is not at risk of losing its reserve currency status.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Summary of key points from Powell's semi-annual monetary policy hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSummary of key points from Powell's semi-annual monetary policy hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 06:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in his semi-annual monetary policy report at a House hearing on Wednesday that the U.S. economic recovery has not yet reached the point where it can begin to shrink asset purchases, adding that inflation is likely to remain high in the coming months and then moderate. down. Regarding the central bank digital currency (CBDC), Powell expects the Federal Reserve to release a central bank digital currency report in early September, which will explain the pros and cons of CBDC.</p><p>The following are the main contents of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee:</p><p><b>1. U.S. economy/inflation:</b></p><p>① The latest inflation data is higher than expected. The inflation rate is currently well above 2%. If inflation expectations continue to be higher than 2%, the Federal Reserve will take action.</p><p>② Monetary policy should still be highly loose, and one of the conditions for rate hike is that the economy is within the range of full employment.</p><p>③ At some point, if the inflation data does not decline, the Fed's description of inflation will \"reverse\".</p><p>④ The Fed is uncertain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>The inflation is \"temporary\", but still believe it to be a fact.</p><p>⑤ The issue of asset purchase will continue to be discussed at the FOMC meeting in July.</p><p>⑥ Reiterate that the Federal Reserve will give a notice before starting to reduce the scale of bond purchases. ⑦ Investment in good infrastructure can increase economic potential.</p><p><b>2. Job market:</b></p><p>① It is too early to say whether increasing unemployment benefits will hinder employment.</p><p>② The factors hindering employment will pass, and there will be strong employment growth.</p><p>③ Be patient with employment issues, and you will be able to return to the unemployment rate of 3.5%.</p><p><b>3. Digital currency:</b></p><p>① It is expected that the digital currency report will be released in early September.</p><p>② The risks faced by digital currency are real.</p><p>③ Stablecoins need an appropriate regulatory framework, and stablecoins need to be regulated in a way similar to money markets and bank deposits.</p><p>④ Decisions about digital currency are being accelerated.</p><p>⑤ Central bank digital currencies may rule out the demand for stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, which is a strong argument in support of it.</p><p><b>4. American real estate:</b></p><p>① Housing prices in the United States are rising at a very high rate.</p><p>② The reason of supply and demand leads to the increase of housing prices.</p><p>③ The real estate market will be a factor for the Federal Reserve to discuss the tapering plan and its composition.</p><p>④ Even if mortgage rates rise, there will still be a lot of housing demand.</p><p><b>5. Others:</b></p><p>① Global semiconductor supply shortages have hindered automobile production/output by 2021.</p><p>② The Federal Reserve wants financial institutions to be aware of climate risks.</p><p>③ The Federal Reserve is not at risk of losing its reserve currency status.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170720172","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔周三在众议院听证会上作半年度货币政策报告时表示，美国经济复苏还没有达到可以开始收缩资产购买规模的程度，补充称未来几个月通胀率可能会保持较高水平，然后和缓下来。关于央行数字货币（CBDC）方面，鲍威尔预计美联储将在9月初发布央行数字货币报告，届时将阐释CBDC的利弊。\n以下为美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院金融服务委员会就半年度货币政策报告主要内容：\n一、美国经济/通胀：\n①最新的通胀数据比预期的要高，通胀率目前远高于2%，如果通胀预期持续高于2%，美联储就会采取行动。\n②货币政策仍应高度宽松，加息的条件之一是经济处于充分就业的范围内。\n③在某个时候，如果通胀数据不下降，美联储对通胀的描述将会“反转”。\n④美联储不确定高通胀是“暂时的”，但仍然相信这是事实。\n⑤将在7月FOMC会议上继续讨论资产购买问题。\n⑥重申美联储将在开始缩减购债规模前给出通知。⑦对良好的基础设施的投资可以增加经济潜力。\n二、就业市场：\n①现在说增加失业救济金是否会阻碍就业还为时尚早。\n②阻碍就业的因素将会过去，将会有强劲的就业增长。\n③对就业问题保持耐心，将能够恢复到3.5%的失业率。\n三、数字货币：\n①预计9月初将发布数字货币报告。\n②数字货币面临的风险是真实存在的。\n③稳定币需要一个适当的监管框架，稳定币需要以类似货币市场和银行存款的方式进行监管。\n④正在加快作出关于数字货币的决策。\n⑤央行数字货币可能会排除对稳定币和加密货币的需求，这是支持它的有力论据。\n四、美国房地产：\n①美国的房价正在以很高的速度上涨。\n②供需原因导致住房价格上涨。\n③房地产市场将成为美联储讨论缩债计划及其组成的一个因素。\n④即使抵押贷款利率上升，仍然会有大量的住房需求。\n五、其他：\n①全球性的半导体供应短缺问题已经妨碍到2021年的汽车生产/产量。\n②美联储希望金融机构意识到气候风险。\n③美联储并没有面临失去其储备货币地位的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889878119,"gmtCreate":1631143487231,"gmtModify":1676530476868,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yy","listText":"Yy","text":"Yy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889878119","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple indicators in the United States alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple indicators in the United States alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had hoped that the economy would return to normal this summer, office workers would return to the office, children would return to school, and the corner coffee shop would open again. But everything backfired. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery stepped on a sudden brake in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a sharp miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, with the spreading Delta variant and rising inflation worrying Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases and 650,345 deaths in novel coronavirus pneumonia have been reported in the United States.</p><p><b>In the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, as many as 1,560 new deaths and more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>With the resurgence of the epidemic, the opening of offices and schools in the United States has been postponed, and travel and performance plans have been cancelled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, with some even pushing back their return dates until 2022.</b></p><p>In mid-July, tourist arrivals to Hawaii had returned to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019, official data showed. But starting in August, the pace slowed, with average daily tourist arrivals down 34% over 2019 in the last seven days of August.</p><p>Cinema traffic fell by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>At the same time, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools was supposed to be an important moment for the economy. About a quarter of households have school-age children, and reliable child care could get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and a lack of vaccines for children under 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>Meier said: \"The uncertainty and anxiety we had last year is back, and this uncertainty is enough to curb labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered U.S. economic growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant of the virus will not push the United States back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and hindering companies from new uncertainties Invest under uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The expected growth rate of US GDP this year has been reduced to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% this year. This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its US GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>When explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists mentioned several major factors,<b>It is expected that as the variant virus Delta rages, the government's financial support is weakening, and demand shifts from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"There seem to be many more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant virus is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is dwindling, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered the U.S. GDP forecast for the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast for the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising down the third quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' full-year growth forecast after this week's downward adjustment.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction in expectations is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced the boost to the economy, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a reduction in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>U.S. stocks fell for two consecutive days, and a bigger test lies ahead</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its largest closing drop since August 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4,520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P closed down after the release of the far-worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline in most sectors of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and U.S. bond prices fell intraday, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional pandemic-era unemployment benefits.<b>In addition to stopping pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional tests to the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which will offset the boost from spending-another short-term risk for markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to pass an increase in the debt ceiling later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808540259,"gmtCreate":1627603468271,"gmtModify":1703493081827,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kk","listText":"Kk","text":"Kk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808540259","repostId":"1109337387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884622819,"gmtCreate":1631888281431,"gmtModify":1676530662928,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay&nbsp;","listText":"Okay&nbsp;","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884622819","repostId":"1169468802","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819527123,"gmtCreate":1630079070662,"gmtModify":1676530220201,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/819527123","repostId":"1131853650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159402116,"gmtCreate":1624975891135,"gmtModify":1703849277006,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159402116","repostId":"2147904866","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2147904866","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624975760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2147904866?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 22:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks in the first half of the year \"horses run and dance\", but people are preparing to run","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147904866","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在美股散户持续买入、标普500再创新高之际，华尔街开始保持谨慎。投行分析师警告称，考虑拜登税改及美联储缩减刺激政策的潜在威胁，目前美股的涨势恐不能持续。\n美股的上涨势头似乎不可阻挡。在持续买盘的驱动下","content":"<p>As retail investors in U.S. stocks continue to buy and the S&P 500 hits new highs, Wall Street is beginning to remain cautious. Investment bank analysts warned that the current rally in U.S. stocks may not be sustainable considering the potential threat of Biden's tax reform and the Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus policy.</p><p>The upward momentum of U.S. stocks seems unstoppable. Driven by continued buying, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 14% in the first six months of this year, adding about $6 trillion to its market value, and is on track for its second-best first-half performance since 1998. Since the end of October last year, the S&P 500 has not seen a single-day correction of 5%. In 1999, at similar valuation levels, the S&P 500 index fell by more than 5% at least nine times.</p><p>The continued buying of U.S. stock retail investors is indispensable. Vanda Research The data shows,<b>When the S&P 500 fell more than 1% last week, retail investors poured a record $2 billion into the stock market.</b></p><p>This persistent buying doesn't seem to end with the unlocking of the epidemic. According to the Betterment survey, 58% of the 1,500 U.S. stock retail investors surveyed plan to trade more after the epidemic is lifted, and only 12% said that the number of transactions will decrease as the epidemic is lifted.</p><p>The overall valuation of the market is also becoming normal. Due to the continued expansion of profits, the overall P/E of the market has dropped from 23x at the beginning of the year (near the highest since the dot-com bubble) to 21x, but it is still higher than the 5-year average of 18x.</p><p>But as the stock market continues to rise, the differentiation between sectors is widening.<b>In March this year, there was the most severe differentiation between the best and worst performing sectors in the market since 2002.</b></p><p>Medium and large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks have also gone out of a fairly independent market.<b>The last time this happened was back to the Internet bubble in 2000.</b></p><p>Wall Street analysts are cautious about the future prospects of U.S. stocks. Analysts generally expect that the strong post-epidemic rebound in U.S. stock companies' performance will peak this quarter, considering the potential threat of Biden's tax reform and the Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus policy.<b>At present, Wall Street's average target point forecast for the S&P 500 at the end of the year is only 4,213, which is 1.7% lower than the latest market close.</b></p><p>The bears are also regrouping. IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The data shows,<b>The current short selling ratio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF in the market has climbed to 5% from less than 2% at the beginning of the year. Demand for protection against losses in the options market is also on the rise in coming months.</b></p><p>Market analysts believe that the biggest threat to U.S. stocks at present comes from the Federal Reserve. If the Fed had an early rate hike, cash and bonds would be more attractive and investors would have no choice but to dump stocks.</p><p>The market is also extremely sensitive to the Fed's movements. After the Federal Reserve released \"hawkish\" information, U.S. stocks once experienced violent fluctuations. Comments from rate hike two years after the Fed, rather than rate hike three years later as previously expected, increased pressure on stocks, with the S&P 500 index falling just over 2% in three days before resuming its gains.</p><p>Washington Crossing fund manager Kevin Caron commented that the current U.S. stock market may be a bit \"ahead of time\" and the market may experience some fluctuations in the next six months until the stock price and fundamentals become more \"normal.\"</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks in the first half of the year \"horses run and dance\", but people are preparing to run</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks in the first half of the year \"horses run and dance\", but people are preparing to run\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 22:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As retail investors in U.S. stocks continue to buy and the S&P 500 hits new highs, Wall Street is beginning to remain cautious. Investment bank analysts warned that the current rally in U.S. stocks may not be sustainable considering the potential threat of Biden's tax reform and the Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus policy.</p><p>The upward momentum of U.S. stocks seems unstoppable. Driven by continued buying, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 14% in the first six months of this year, adding about $6 trillion to its market value, and is on track for its second-best first-half performance since 1998. Since the end of October last year, the S&P 500 has not seen a single-day correction of 5%. In 1999, at similar valuation levels, the S&P 500 index fell by more than 5% at least nine times.</p><p>The continued buying of U.S. stock retail investors is indispensable. Vanda Research The data shows,<b>When the S&P 500 fell more than 1% last week, retail investors poured a record $2 billion into the stock market.</b></p><p>This persistent buying doesn't seem to end with the unlocking of the epidemic. According to the Betterment survey, 58% of the 1,500 U.S. stock retail investors surveyed plan to trade more after the epidemic is lifted, and only 12% said that the number of transactions will decrease as the epidemic is lifted.</p><p>The overall valuation of the market is also becoming normal. Due to the continued expansion of profits, the overall P/E of the market has dropped from 23x at the beginning of the year (near the highest since the dot-com bubble) to 21x, but it is still higher than the 5-year average of 18x.</p><p>But as the stock market continues to rise, the differentiation between sectors is widening.<b>In March this year, there was the most severe differentiation between the best and worst performing sectors in the market since 2002.</b></p><p>Medium and large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks have also gone out of a fairly independent market.<b>The last time this happened was back to the Internet bubble in 2000.</b></p><p>Wall Street analysts are cautious about the future prospects of U.S. stocks. Analysts generally expect that the strong post-epidemic rebound in U.S. stock companies' performance will peak this quarter, considering the potential threat of Biden's tax reform and the Federal Reserve's tapering of stimulus policy.<b>At present, Wall Street's average target point forecast for the S&P 500 at the end of the year is only 4,213, which is 1.7% lower than the latest market close.</b></p><p>The bears are also regrouping. IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The data shows,<b>The current short selling ratio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF in the market has climbed to 5% from less than 2% at the beginning of the year. Demand for protection against losses in the options market is also on the rise in coming months.</b></p><p>Market analysts believe that the biggest threat to U.S. stocks at present comes from the Federal Reserve. If the Fed had an early rate hike, cash and bonds would be more attractive and investors would have no choice but to dump stocks.</p><p>The market is also extremely sensitive to the Fed's movements. After the Federal Reserve released \"hawkish\" information, U.S. stocks once experienced violent fluctuations. Comments from rate hike two years after the Fed, rather than rate hike three years later as previously expected, increased pressure on stocks, with the S&P 500 index falling just over 2% in three days before resuming its gains.</p><p>Washington Crossing fund manager Kevin Caron commented that the current U.S. stock market may be a bit \"ahead of time\" and the market may experience some fluctuations in the next six months until the stock price and fundamentals become more \"normal.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634144\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634144","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147904866","content_text":"在美股散户持续买入、标普500再创新高之际，华尔街开始保持谨慎。投行分析师警告称，考虑拜登税改及美联储缩减刺激政策的潜在威胁，目前美股的涨势恐不能持续。\n美股的上涨势头似乎不可阻挡。在持续买盘的驱动下，今年前6个月标普500指数上涨近14%，市值增加约6万亿美元，有望创1998年以来第二好的上半年表现。自去年10月底以来，标普500指数从未出现单日回调5%的情况。而在类似估值水平的1999年，标普500指数至少有9次下跌超过5%。\n美股散户的持续买入功不可没。Vanda Research数据显示，当标准普尔500指数上周下跌超过1%时，散户投资者向股市投入了创纪录的20亿美元。\n这种持续性的买入似乎不会因疫情解封而结束。Betterment调查显示，在1500名受调查的美股散户中，有58%的人计划在疫情解封后更多的交易，仅有12%的表示交易数量将随着疫情解封而降低。\n市场的整体估值也在趋向正常。由于利润的持续扩张，市场整体市盈率已经从年初的23x（接近互联网泡沫以来最高）下跌至21x，但仍高过5年平均水平的18x。\n但在股市持续上涨之际，板块之间分化正在扩大。市场中表现最佳板块与表现最差板块之间今年3月出现了2002年以来的最严重分化。\n中大型股和小型股也走出了相当独立的行情，而上一次出现这种情况还要追溯到2000年的互联网泡沫时期。\n对于美股未来前景，华尔街分析师们出言谨慎。分析师们普遍预计，美股公司疫情后业绩的强劲反弹将在本季见顶，考虑拜登税改及美联储缩减刺激政策的潜在威胁，目前华尔街对于标普500年末的平均目标点位预测仅有4213，较最新市场收盘低1.7%。\n空头们也在重新聚集。IHS Markit数据显示，目前市场上对SPDR S&P 500 ETF的卖空比例已从年初的不到2%攀升至5%。期权市场对未来几个月损失的保护需求也在上升。\n市场分析认为，目前对于美股最大的威胁来自美联储。如果美联储提前加息，现金和债券将会更有吸引力，而投资者别无选择只能抛售股票。\n市场对于美联储的动向也异常敏感。此前在美联储释放“鹰派”信息后，美股一度出现剧烈波动。美联储两年后加息、而非此前预计的三年后加息的言论加大了股市的压力，标普500指数在三天内累计跌幅略高于2%，之后才恢复升势。\nWashington Crossing 基金经理Kevin Caron评论称，目前美股可能有点“超前了”，市场在未来的6个月里可能出现一些波动，直到股价和基本面更加“趋于正常”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180144943,"gmtCreate":1623196524882,"gmtModify":1704197987320,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oao&nbsp;","listText":"Oao&nbsp;","text":"Oao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180144943","repostId":"1179000628","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179000628","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623144281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179000628?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 17:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179000628","media":"智通财经","summary":"2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。","content":"<p>Author: He Yucheng</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increases, U.S. stocks may pull back in the next six months. 10%-15%.</p><p>Given that in the past four quarters, the earnings of U.S. stock companies have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings situation in the second half of 2021 is relatively grim.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that during the epidemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituent stocks achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely the technology, health care and utilities industries.</p><p>The chart below, FactSet (FDS), shows the record results expected in Q2 2021, the best since Q4 2009.</p><p><b>Tax increase-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting on June 5 announced support for the proposal to levy the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current The technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the hardest hit.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>The third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the market's consensus forecast for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index, it is still at a high level of around 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, there is limited room for further upward movement in the US stock market.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases a signal to reduce bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter may be the time when U.S. stock risks will break out.</p><p>And if the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined to be January 1, 2022, the high probability of the outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy stocks remain attractive</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best-performing sector in U.S. stock markets this year, but there is still plenty of room for upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>Looking at the longer timeline, the stock prices of energy producers have not yet returned to the levels before the oil price plunge that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving upward revisions to earnings per share growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. This peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: He Yucheng</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increases, U.S. stocks may pull back in the next six months. 10%-15%.</p><p>Given that in the past four quarters, the earnings of U.S. stock companies have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings situation in the second half of 2021 is relatively grim.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that during the epidemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituent stocks achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely the technology, health care and utilities industries.</p><p>The chart below, FactSet (FDS), shows the record results expected in Q2 2021, the best since Q4 2009.</p><p><b>Tax increase-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting on June 5 announced support for the proposal to levy the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current The technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the hardest hit.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>The third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the market's consensus forecast for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index, it is still at a high level of around 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, there is limited room for further upward movement in the US stock market.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases a signal to reduce bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter may be the time when U.S. stock risks will break out.</p><p>And if the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined to be January 1, 2022, the high probability of the outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy stocks remain attractive</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best-performing sector in U.S. stock markets this year, but there is still plenty of room for upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>Looking at the longer timeline, the stock prices of energy producers have not yet returned to the levels before the oil price plunge that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving upward revisions to earnings per share growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. This peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0bcd99a5c3036928825c7c943e566f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1179000628","content_text":"作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在2020年第一季度和第二季度实现了正收益和收入增长，即科技、保健以及公用事业行业。\n下图FactSet(FDS)显示了2021年第二季度预期的创纪录结果，这是自2009年第四季度以来最好的一次。\n加税——美股下半年最大的风险\n6月5日的G7财长会议通告支持征收15%全球最低税率的提议，拜登国内加税提案如落地，预计将是美股下半年最大的风险：企业所得税的上调将直接冲击美股盈利，而当前有效税率较低、海外收入占比高的科技和医药行业受冲击预计最大。\n中信证券表示，若资本利得税若上调至39.6%，预计将引发投资者抛售，今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”入市的趋势或逆转。\n3季度或成为美股集中爆发点\n虽然市场对今年标普500盈利增速的一致预期已从4月中旬的27%上调至当前的34%，但鉴于目前标普指数动态估值仍处于22倍左右的高位。在无新的催化因素下，美股大市进一步上行的空间有限。\n相反，各类风险却在逐步加剧。若美联储于8月底明确释放削减购债的信号，且民主党于9月底前如期通过加税法案，则3季度下旬或是美股风险集中爆发的时间点。\n而如果资本利得税改的起始有效日最终确定为2022年1月1日，则“散户加杠杆”资金的大概率流出可能会在4季度对美股的表现造成负面影响。\n能源股仍具备吸引力\n在美国股市今年以来的交易中，能源股是表现最好的一个板块，但要弥补多年以来的大幅下跌，这个板块还有很大的上行空间。\n如拉长时间轴来看，能源生产商的股价尚未恢复到2014年夏季开始的油价大跌之前的水平。\n\n如埃克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)正在推动能源行业每股收益增长的上调。\n目前能源占标普500指数市值的比例仍然只有3%。这一比例在2014年8月至9月达到14%-15%的峰值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196833197,"gmtCreate":1621040981219,"gmtModify":1704352271366,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sad....&nbsp;","listText":"Sad....&nbsp;","text":"Sad....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196833197","repostId":"1164480285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164480285","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621039073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164480285?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-15 08:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: Technology led the rebound in U.S. stocks for two days, Tesla fell 12% this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164480285","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美债收益率大跌提升投资者风险偏好，纳指大涨逾2％，中概股集体反弹；美国输油管道重开，美油、布油双双大涨逾2％；14个月牛市后，贝佐斯等亿万富豪纷纷减持股票 ，大佬Q1持仓 ：桥水建仓特斯拉抛黄金","content":"<p><b>Summary:</b></p><p><ul><li>The sharp drop in U.S. bond yields increased investors' risk appetite, the Nasdaq rose by more than 2%, and Chinese concept stocks rebounded collectively;</li><li>The U.S. oil pipeline reopened, and both U.S. oil and Brent oil rose by more than 2%;</li><li>After a 14-month bull market, billionaires such as Bezos have reduced their stock holdings,</li><li>Big boss Q1 positions: Bridgewater builds positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Throw gold, Soros builds a position<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Clearance Palantir.</li></ul><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>1. The decline in U.S. bond yields helped U.S. stocks record second consecutive gains! The Nasdaq rose more than 2%, and Chinese concept stocks rebounded collectively</b></p><p>The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and closed higher across the board on Friday. As U.S. retail sales did not increase in April and were worse than expected, U.S. bond yields fell sharply, boosting investors' risk appetite. As of the close, the Dow rose 360.68 points to 34382.13 points, an increase of 1.06%; The Nasdaq rose 304.99 points to 13429.98 points, an increase of 2.32%; The S&P 500 index rose 61.35 points, or 1.49%, to 4,173.85 points.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks as a whole showed a relatively strong rebound. As of Friday's close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 1.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>ADR rose 3.64%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 3.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.67%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 3.77%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 10.72%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 9.08%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose 7.05%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Up 11.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">JinkoSolar</a>Up 2.47%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Up 5.38%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 5.99%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>Up 8.64%.</p><p><b>2. The governor of the Bank of England said inflation will not continue European stocks closed higher across the board on Friday</b></p><p>Investor concerns about inflation European stocks continued to rebound sharply on Friday (May 14) as the pullback in commodity prices slowed, after stocks suffered a sell-off at the start of trading this week.</p><p><b>3. The U.S. oil pipeline reopened, and both U.S. oil and Brent oil rose by more than 2%! All higher for the third straight week this week</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed higher on Friday and were similarly higher this week as a key U.S. fuel delivery pipeline reopened after being forced to close last weekend due to a ransomware attack.</p><p><b>4. The strength of the US dollar pushed the price of gold to close up 0.8%, recording the second consecutive rise! Hit a new closing high in more than 3 months</b></p><p>The price of gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $14.10 to close at $1,838.10 per ounce, an increase of 0.8%, the highest closing price since February 10, after the contract was traded on Thursday. It also closed up nearly 0.1%. In the overall trading this week, based on the main contract, the price of gold futures rose by about 0.4% cumulatively.</p><p><b>5. Dogecoin soared by more than 40%! Musk speaks out again: will cooperate with Dogecoin developers</b></p><p>Dogecoin price surged on Friday after a social media message from Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, a supporter of the cryptocurrency, and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said it would offer Dogecoin trading.</p><p><b>6、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135988454\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Big boss Q1 investment: Bridgewater builds a position in Tesla, Soros builds a position in Vipshop</b></a></p><p>Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, increased its holdings of consumer stocks and banking stocks in the first quarter of this year, sold gold ETFs and technology stocks, but built positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>。 Soros's family office also sold some technology stocks, among which big data star Palantir directly cleared its positions, but at the same time increased its holdings of many Chinese concept stocks, including new long positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>。</p><p><b>7、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135600444\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Bridgewater Fund's Q1 holdings: Increased consumption to buy back Tesla, Chinese concept stocks were reduced</b></a></p><p>According to statistics from the 13F data platform Whalewisdom, among Bridgewater's Q1 positions, a total of 204 targets were increased, 123 targets were reduced, 127 targets were newly added, and 197 targets were cleared. From the perspective of overall operation, Bridgewater's main direction of increasing positions in the first quarter was consumer stocks. For<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">S&P 500ETF</a>, gold ETFs and other fund instruments have made significant reductions in holdings.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>1. Fed Mester: Policy is in good shape Now is not the time to make adjustments</b></p><p>Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the Fed's policy is in good shape right now. She also downplayed the signal sent by the economic data, saying that as the economy restarts, the data will be volatile.</p><p><b>2. Americans are unwilling to spend money? Retail sales failed to increase in April and worse than expected</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that overall retail sales in April were basically flat month-on-month, and were revised up to an increase of 10.7% in March. According to a Bloomberg survey, the median estimate of economists is a 1% increase in April.</p><p><b>3. Is the Fed ready to surrender? Big Short Schiff: US inflation will \"explode\" and the dollar is losing purchasing power</b></p><p>According to Peter Schiff, a famous investor and financial commentator, the Fed will not fight inflation. This was because even if they tried to fight, they were doomed to fail. Therefore, they wouldn't even try. For that reason, I've been telling everyone that there will be no war on inflation. The Fed is ready to surrender now. Inflation will undoubtedly win big. In fact, the future inflation problem will be much more dire than the market expects. If the weakness of gold prices is really due to higher-than-expected inflation, then investors should seize the opportunity to buy now.</p><p><b>4、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135600094\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Be safe in your pocket! After 14-month bull market, billionaires like Bezos are trimming their holdings</b></a></p><p>The world's richest shareholders are selling their shares and settling in. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Of Jeff Bezos and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Corporate insiders, including co-founder Sergey Brin, have recently accelerated the pace of reducing their holdings, seizing the opportunity of the 14-month bull market to cash in.</p><p><b>5. I can't tell whether inflation is good news or bad news. U.S. investors have reason to be scared</b></p><p>It is widely believed that inflation is a positive factor for the stock market. But over the past week, inflation climbed far beyond economists' expectations, sending investors in U.S. stocks panicking. A Wall Street analyst said that a closer look at the historical record may show why investors behaved like this.</p><p><b>6. New debt king Gundlach: There is reason to worry about inflation, which may force the Fed to rate hike</b></p><p>\"It seems to me that markets are starting to get a little worried about (inflation) this week,\" Gundlach said, who then added: \"This is the biggest difference in the CPI from economists'expectations in years, and maybe even in my entire career.\"</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>1、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135860760\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Disney, Airbnb, and DoorDash's earnings reveal a new post-pandemic economic normal</b></a><b></b></p><p>Airbnb said interest in travel has soared again as vaccines become more widely available. The company noted that travel bookings in the UK increased sharply immediately after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a phase-out of lockdown in February. For U.S. customers aged 60 and older, searches for summer travel on Airbnb grew more than 60% between February and March of this year.</p><p><b>2、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135860665\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Amazon plans to recruit 10,000 permanent employees in the UK again on a large scale</b></a></p><p>A large number of companies have laid off employees during the new crown period, but Amazon, the world's largest online retailer, has become a company swimming against the current. Amazon announced today that it will recruit an additional 10,000 people in the UK. By the end of 2021, the company's total number of employees in the UK will reach 55,000.</p><p><b>3、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135607690\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Following Musk's trend, media say Square has no intention of buying more Bitcoin</b></a></p><p>Among the companies that had previously purchased Bitcoin as reserves, some chose to stop. According to reports, after losing $20 million on related investments, Square, a payment financial technology company, said it had no intention of buying more Bitcoin for reserves.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: Technology led the rebound in U.S. stocks for two days, Tesla fell 12% this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: Technology led the rebound in U.S. stocks for two days, Tesla fell 12% this week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-15 08:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary:</b></p><p><ul><li>The sharp drop in U.S. bond yields increased investors' risk appetite, the Nasdaq rose by more than 2%, and Chinese concept stocks rebounded collectively;</li><li>The U.S. oil pipeline reopened, and both U.S. oil and Brent oil rose by more than 2%;</li><li>After a 14-month bull market, billionaires such as Bezos have reduced their stock holdings,</li><li>Big boss Q1 positions: Bridgewater builds positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Throw gold, Soros builds a position<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Clearance Palantir.</li></ul><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>1. The decline in U.S. bond yields helped U.S. stocks record second consecutive gains! The Nasdaq rose more than 2%, and Chinese concept stocks rebounded collectively</b></p><p>The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and closed higher across the board on Friday. As U.S. retail sales did not increase in April and were worse than expected, U.S. bond yields fell sharply, boosting investors' risk appetite. As of the close, the Dow rose 360.68 points to 34382.13 points, an increase of 1.06%; The Nasdaq rose 304.99 points to 13429.98 points, an increase of 2.32%; The S&P 500 index rose 61.35 points, or 1.49%, to 4,173.85 points.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks as a whole showed a relatively strong rebound. As of Friday's close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 1.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>ADR rose 3.64%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 3.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.67%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 3.77%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 10.72%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up 9.08%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose 7.05%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Up 11.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">JinkoSolar</a>Up 2.47%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Up 5.38%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 5.99%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>Up 8.64%.</p><p><b>2. The governor of the Bank of England said inflation will not continue European stocks closed higher across the board on Friday</b></p><p>Investor concerns about inflation European stocks continued to rebound sharply on Friday (May 14) as the pullback in commodity prices slowed, after stocks suffered a sell-off at the start of trading this week.</p><p><b>3. The U.S. oil pipeline reopened, and both U.S. oil and Brent oil rose by more than 2%! All higher for the third straight week this week</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed higher on Friday and were similarly higher this week as a key U.S. fuel delivery pipeline reopened after being forced to close last weekend due to a ransomware attack.</p><p><b>4. The strength of the US dollar pushed the price of gold to close up 0.8%, recording the second consecutive rise! Hit a new closing high in more than 3 months</b></p><p>The price of gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $14.10 to close at $1,838.10 per ounce, an increase of 0.8%, the highest closing price since February 10, after the contract was traded on Thursday. It also closed up nearly 0.1%. In the overall trading this week, based on the main contract, the price of gold futures rose by about 0.4% cumulatively.</p><p><b>5. Dogecoin soared by more than 40%! Musk speaks out again: will cooperate with Dogecoin developers</b></p><p>Dogecoin price surged on Friday after a social media message from Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, a supporter of the cryptocurrency, and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said it would offer Dogecoin trading.</p><p><b>6、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135988454\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Big boss Q1 investment: Bridgewater builds a position in Tesla, Soros builds a position in Vipshop</b></a></p><p>Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, increased its holdings of consumer stocks and banking stocks in the first quarter of this year, sold gold ETFs and technology stocks, but built positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>。 Soros's family office also sold some technology stocks, among which big data star Palantir directly cleared its positions, but at the same time increased its holdings of many Chinese concept stocks, including new long positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>。</p><p><b>7、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135600444\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Bridgewater Fund's Q1 holdings: Increased consumption to buy back Tesla, Chinese concept stocks were reduced</b></a></p><p>According to statistics from the 13F data platform Whalewisdom, among Bridgewater's Q1 positions, a total of 204 targets were increased, 123 targets were reduced, 127 targets were newly added, and 197 targets were cleared. From the perspective of overall operation, Bridgewater's main direction of increasing positions in the first quarter was consumer stocks. For<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">S&P 500ETF</a>, gold ETFs and other fund instruments have made significant reductions in holdings.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>1. Fed Mester: Policy is in good shape Now is not the time to make adjustments</b></p><p>Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the Fed's policy is in good shape right now. She also downplayed the signal sent by the economic data, saying that as the economy restarts, the data will be volatile.</p><p><b>2. Americans are unwilling to spend money? Retail sales failed to increase in April and worse than expected</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that overall retail sales in April were basically flat month-on-month, and were revised up to an increase of 10.7% in March. According to a Bloomberg survey, the median estimate of economists is a 1% increase in April.</p><p><b>3. Is the Fed ready to surrender? Big Short Schiff: US inflation will \"explode\" and the dollar is losing purchasing power</b></p><p>According to Peter Schiff, a famous investor and financial commentator, the Fed will not fight inflation. This was because even if they tried to fight, they were doomed to fail. Therefore, they wouldn't even try. For that reason, I've been telling everyone that there will be no war on inflation. The Fed is ready to surrender now. Inflation will undoubtedly win big. In fact, the future inflation problem will be much more dire than the market expects. If the weakness of gold prices is really due to higher-than-expected inflation, then investors should seize the opportunity to buy now.</p><p><b>4、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135600094\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Be safe in your pocket! After 14-month bull market, billionaires like Bezos are trimming their holdings</b></a></p><p>The world's richest shareholders are selling their shares and settling in. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Of Jeff Bezos and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Corporate insiders, including co-founder Sergey Brin, have recently accelerated the pace of reducing their holdings, seizing the opportunity of the 14-month bull market to cash in.</p><p><b>5. I can't tell whether inflation is good news or bad news. U.S. investors have reason to be scared</b></p><p>It is widely believed that inflation is a positive factor for the stock market. But over the past week, inflation climbed far beyond economists' expectations, sending investors in U.S. stocks panicking. A Wall Street analyst said that a closer look at the historical record may show why investors behaved like this.</p><p><b>6. New debt king Gundlach: There is reason to worry about inflation, which may force the Fed to rate hike</b></p><p>\"It seems to me that markets are starting to get a little worried about (inflation) this week,\" Gundlach said, who then added: \"This is the biggest difference in the CPI from economists'expectations in years, and maybe even in my entire career.\"</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>1、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135860760\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Disney, Airbnb, and DoorDash's earnings reveal a new post-pandemic economic normal</b></a><b></b></p><p>Airbnb said interest in travel has soared again as vaccines become more widely available. The company noted that travel bookings in the UK increased sharply immediately after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a phase-out of lockdown in February. For U.S. customers aged 60 and older, searches for summer travel on Airbnb grew more than 60% between February and March of this year.</p><p><b>2、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135860665\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Amazon plans to recruit 10,000 permanent employees in the UK again on a large scale</b></a></p><p>A large number of companies have laid off employees during the new crown period, but Amazon, the world's largest online retailer, has become a company swimming against the current. Amazon announced today that it will recruit an additional 10,000 people in the UK. By the end of 2021, the company's total number of employees in the UK will reach 55,000.</p><p><b>3、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2135607690\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Following Musk's trend, media say Square has no intention of buying more Bitcoin</b></a></p><p>Among the companies that had previously purchased Bitcoin as reserves, some chose to stop. According to reports, after losing $20 million on related investments, Square, a payment financial technology company, said it had no intention of buying more Bitcoin for reserves.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","NTES":"网易","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","PDD":"拼多多","BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","03086":"华夏纳指"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164480285","content_text":"摘要：美债收益率大跌提升投资者风险偏好，纳指大涨逾2％，中概股集体反弹；美国输油管道重开，美油、布油双双大涨逾2％；14个月牛市后，贝佐斯等亿万富豪纷纷减持股票 ，大佬Q1持仓 ：桥水建仓特斯拉抛黄金，索罗斯建仓唯品会清仓Palantir。海外市场1、美债收益率下跌助美股录得二连涨！纳指大涨逾2％，中概股集体反弹美股三大指数周五高开高走全线收涨，因美国4月零售销售未见增长并逊于预期，美债收益率大跌，提升了投资者的风险偏好情绪。截至收盘，道指涨360.68点，报34382.13点，涨幅为1.06%；纳指涨304.99点，报13429.98点，涨幅为2.32%；标普500指数涨61.35点，报4173.85点，涨幅为1.49%。中概股整体出现了较为强劲的反弹。截至周五收盘，阿里巴巴涨1.66%、腾讯ADR涨3.64%、百度涨3.85%、京东涨1.67%、网易涨3.77%、哔哩哔哩涨10.72%、小鹏汽车涨9.08%、蔚来汽车涨7.05%、理想汽车涨6.50%、嘉楠科技涨11.25%、晶科能源涨2.47%、拼多多涨2.69%、好未来涨5.38%、新东方涨5.99%、有道涨8.64%。2、英国央行行长称通胀不会持续 欧股周五全线收涨投资者对通胀的担忧随着大宗商品价格的回落放缓，欧洲股市周五（5月14日）继续大幅反弹，此前股市在本周交易开始时遭遇抛售。3、美国输油管道重开，美油、布油双双大涨逾2％！本周均连续第三周走高原油期货价格周五收盘上涨，本周也同样走高，原因是美国一条关键的燃油输送管道在上周末因受到勒索软件攻击而被迫关闭后重新开放。4、美元走强推动金价收高0.8％，录得二连涨！创3个多月收盘新高纽约商品交易所6月份交割的黄金期货价格上涨14.10美元，报收于每盎司1838.10美元，涨幅为0.8%，创下了自2月10日以来的最高收盘价，此前该合约在周四的交易中也收盘上涨近0.1%在本周的整体交易中，按主力合约计算，黄金期货价格累计上涨了0.4%左右。5、狗狗币飙涨逾40％！马斯克再发声：将与狗狗币开发商合作狗狗币价格周五飙升，原因是这种加密货币的支持者、特斯拉（NASDAQ:TSLA）首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在社交媒体上发布了一条消息，且加密货币交易所Coinbase称其将提供狗狗币交易。6、大佬Q1投资：桥水建仓特斯拉，索罗斯建仓唯品会全球最大对冲基金桥水今年一季度增持消费类股和银行股，抛售黄金ETF和科技股，但建仓了特斯拉。索罗斯的家族办公室也抛售了一些科技股，其中大数据明星Palantir直接清仓，但同时增持了不少中概股，包括新进做多唯品会。7、桥水基金Q1持仓：加仓消费买回特斯拉，中概股遭减持根据13F数据平台Whalewisdom统计，在桥水Q1持仓中，总共增持204个标的、减持123个标的、新进127个标的、清仓197个标的。从整体操作来看，桥水一季度主要加仓方向为消费股，对于标普500ETF、黄金ETF等基金工具做出了较大减持。国际宏观1、美联储梅斯特：政策处于良好状态 现在不是进行调整的时候克里夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛蕾塔·梅斯特（Loretta Mester）表示，美联储的政策目前处于良好状态。她还淡化了经济数据发出的信号，称随着经济重启，数据将会表现不稳定。2、美国人不愿意花钱了？4月零售销售未见增长，并逊于预期美国商务部周五公布的数据显示，4月整体零售额环比基本持平，3月上修为增长10.7%。彭博调查显示，经济学家预估中值为4月增长1%。3、美联储已准备投降？大空头席夫：美国通胀将“爆炸”，美元正丧失购买力在著名投资人、财经评论家席夫（Peter Schiff）看来美，联储不会和通货膨胀作战的。这么说是因为，哪怕他们尝试去作战，也注定将会失败，所以，他们根本就连尝试都不会去尝试。出于这个原因，我一直在告诉大家，不会有针对通货膨胀的战争。联储现在就已经准备好投降了。通货膨胀毫无疑问将大获全胜。事实上，未来的通胀问题将比市场所预计的可怕得多。如果金价的疲软真的是因为通货膨胀高过预期的缘故，那么投资者现在就应该抓住机会买进。4、落袋为安！14个月牛市后，贝佐斯等亿万富豪纷纷减持股票全世界最富有的股东们纷纷出售持股、落袋为安。包括亚马逊的杰夫·贝佐斯和谷歌联合创始人Sergey Brin在内，企业内部人士最近加快减持步伐，抓住14个月大牛市的机会变现。5、分不清通胀到底是喜讯还是噩耗 美国投资者有理由心惊肉跳人们普遍认为，对于股市来说，通货膨胀是个利好因素。但是，在过去的一周内，远超经济学家预期的通胀攀升，让美国股市的投资者们惊慌失措。一位华尔街分析师表示，仔细翻看历史记录，或许就能知道投资者们为何会有如此表现了。6、新债王冈拉克：有理由担心通胀，可能迫使美联储加息冈拉克表示：“在我看来，本周市场开始有点担心（通胀）了。”他随后补充说：“这是多年来消费者物价指数与经济学家预期相差最大的一次，甚至可能是我整个职业生涯中最大的一次。”公司新闻1、迪士尼、爱彼迎和DoorDash的财报揭示了疫情后的经济新常态爱彼迎表示，随着疫苗变得更加普及，人们对旅游的兴趣再次飙升。该公司指出，在英国首相鲍里斯-约翰逊2月份宣布逐步退出封锁后，英国的旅游预订量立即大幅增加。对于60岁及以上的美国客户来说，今年2月至3月，Airbnb上夏季旅游的搜索量增长了60%以上。2、亚马逊再次大规模招聘 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