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2023-02-07

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Beware of Bear Market Traps! Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley both warned: The Federal Reserve will not turn easily

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Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley both warned: The Federal Reserve will not turn easily","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2309327008","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley points out that an important harbinger has emerged that an earnings recession is about to hit the stock market hard! Prominent bulls in JPMorgan Chase said that the Federal Reserve would slowly change its policy course and recommended continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. stocks.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></b>Investors should not believe they are witnessing the start of a new bull market and that an earnings recession will remain a major obstacle to any gains for U.S. stocks this year, said in a note on Monday.</p><p>\"While last week's events did not lead to an immediate reversal of the recent bear market rally, we also do not think it indicates that a new bull market has kicked off in October of last year.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfd4b720ededab49269ef080e396189\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P 500 is up 15% from its October low</p><p>Strategists warn that the headwinds have not subsided,<b>Rate cuts could be later than expected.</b>Citing a strong labor market and a strong dollar, they said these are signs that the economy can still withstand tighter conditions and that the Fed is still likely to keep interest rates high. The report said:</p><p>\"There really is no reason for equity investors to be excited about rate cuts.\" In addition, strategists say,<b>Forward-looking indicators of earnings per share growth in the S&P 500 turned negative on Friday, highlighting a major harbinger of an earnings recession that is about to hit stocks</b>。 Negative EPS growth has only occurred four times in the past 23 years, and each year has been accompanied by a \"significant\" decline in the market. The strategist added:</p><p>\"What makes this analysis even more compelling is that, historically, most of the price declines in stocks have occurred after forward EPS growth turned negative. In other words, in our view, this earnings recession is not priced,\" Morgan Stanley has warned for months that investors' earnings expectations remain too high and markets are not fully digesting the pain of the earnings recession, which could lead to a resurgence of the 2008 downturn. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief equity strategist, said,<b>Stocks could fall as much as 20% in the first half of the year</b>, he warned investors to prepare for more near-term volatility.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b>Strategist Marko Kolanovic also reiterated Monday that investors should ignore the stock market rally triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision last week, as the anti-inflation (disinflation) process in the U.S. economy may only be \"temporary\".</p><p><i>Note: The rate of inflation declines, and the economy is still in a state of inflation at this time.</i></p><p>In a note to clients, Kolanovic wrote that he believes the first three months of the year could mark an \"inflection point for the market,\" with the second and third quarters likely to enter a bumpy period, followed by another deterioration in fundamentals by the end of the year, as the Fed is likely to keep interest rates high for some time.</p><p>\"We recommend using the current market rally to reduce exposure,\" wrote a team of strategists led by Kolanovic. He noted that risk sentiment previously led to a re-influx of investors into speculative assets such as crypto-related stocks and Meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market may have poured cold water on a \"soft landing\" scenario, in which the Fed may struggle to tame inflation while the economy continues to grow. According to Kolanovic, if a \"soft landing\" cannot be achieved, it will result in<b>This Year's Stock Market Winners Have a Mean Return</b>。</p><p>After Friday's more-than-expected surge in non-farm payrolls hit market expectations for rate cuts, Kolanovic is now<b>The Fed is expected to rate hike 25 basis points each in March and May, and then keep rates high for an extended period.</b>Even with headline inflation expected to fall, Kolanovic expects<b>Higher wages will put pressure on corporate profit margins, which may trigger more layoffs.</b>He added:</p><p>\"So in this scenario, there will be nothing to celebrate with falling inflation because interest rates are in a more restrictive state and the Fed will slowly change policy course unless risk events force rates to reset.\" Kolanovic, one of Wall Street's biggest optimists, missed most of his forecasts in 2022. He has since changed his tune and cut his equity allocation in mid-December of last year due to the weak economic outlook this year. Last month, he said the economy was headed for a downturn. The bank again recommended reducing its holdings amid concerns about a recession and excessive Fed tightening.</p><p>Still, Kolanovic urged investors to buy Chinese stocks on the dip during the downturn in October last year, and the MSCI China Index has risen more than 26% since early October last year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware of Bear Market Traps! Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley both warned: The Federal Reserve will not turn easily</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware of Bear Market Traps! Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley both warned: The Federal Reserve will not turn easily\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-07 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley points out that an important harbinger has emerged that an earnings recession is about to hit the stock market hard! Prominent bulls in JPMorgan Chase said that the Federal Reserve would slowly change its policy course and recommended continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. stocks.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></b>Investors should not believe they are witnessing the start of a new bull market and that an earnings recession will remain a major obstacle to any gains for U.S. stocks this year, said in a note on Monday.</p><p>\"While last week's events did not lead to an immediate reversal of the recent bear market rally, we also do not think it indicates that a new bull market has kicked off in October of last year.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfd4b720ededab49269ef080e396189\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P 500 is up 15% from its October low</p><p>Strategists warn that the headwinds have not subsided,<b>Rate cuts could be later than expected.</b>Citing a strong labor market and a strong dollar, they said these are signs that the economy can still withstand tighter conditions and that the Fed is still likely to keep interest rates high. The report said:</p><p>\"There really is no reason for equity investors to be excited about rate cuts.\" In addition, strategists say,<b>Forward-looking indicators of earnings per share growth in the S&P 500 turned negative on Friday, highlighting a major harbinger of an earnings recession that is about to hit stocks</b>。 Negative EPS growth has only occurred four times in the past 23 years, and each year has been accompanied by a \"significant\" decline in the market. The strategist added:</p><p>\"What makes this analysis even more compelling is that, historically, most of the price declines in stocks have occurred after forward EPS growth turned negative. In other words, in our view, this earnings recession is not priced,\" Morgan Stanley has warned for months that investors' earnings expectations remain too high and markets are not fully digesting the pain of the earnings recession, which could lead to a resurgence of the 2008 downturn. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief equity strategist, said,<b>Stocks could fall as much as 20% in the first half of the year</b>, he warned investors to prepare for more near-term volatility.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b>Strategist Marko Kolanovic also reiterated Monday that investors should ignore the stock market rally triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision last week, as the anti-inflation (disinflation) process in the U.S. economy may only be \"temporary\".</p><p><i>Note: The rate of inflation declines, and the economy is still in a state of inflation at this time.</i></p><p>In a note to clients, Kolanovic wrote that he believes the first three months of the year could mark an \"inflection point for the market,\" with the second and third quarters likely to enter a bumpy period, followed by another deterioration in fundamentals by the end of the year, as the Fed is likely to keep interest rates high for some time.</p><p>\"We recommend using the current market rally to reduce exposure,\" wrote a team of strategists led by Kolanovic. He noted that risk sentiment previously led to a re-influx of investors into speculative assets such as crypto-related stocks and Meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market may have poured cold water on a \"soft landing\" scenario, in which the Fed may struggle to tame inflation while the economy continues to grow. According to Kolanovic, if a \"soft landing\" cannot be achieved, it will result in<b>This Year's Stock Market Winners Have a Mean Return</b>。</p><p>After Friday's more-than-expected surge in non-farm payrolls hit market expectations for rate cuts, Kolanovic is now<b>The Fed is expected to rate hike 25 basis points each in March and May, and then keep rates high for an extended period.</b>Even with headline inflation expected to fall, Kolanovic expects<b>Higher wages will put pressure on corporate profit margins, which may trigger more layoffs.</b>He added:</p><p>\"So in this scenario, there will be nothing to celebrate with falling inflation because interest rates are in a more restrictive state and the Fed will slowly change policy course unless risk events force rates to reset.\" Kolanovic, one of Wall Street's biggest optimists, missed most of his forecasts in 2022. He has since changed his tune and cut his equity allocation in mid-December of last year due to the weak economic outlook this year. Last month, he said the economy was headed for a downturn. The bank again recommended reducing its holdings amid concerns about a recession and excessive Fed tightening.</p><p>Still, Kolanovic urged investors to buy Chinese stocks on the dip during the downturn in October last year, and the MSCI China Index has risen more than 26% since early October last year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c732cf736e36e00309314a57f283d159","relate_stocks":{"LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 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USD"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2309327008","content_text":"摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。摩根士丹利周一在一份报告中表示，投资者不应相信他们正在见证新一轮牛市的开始，盈利衰退仍将是美股今年取得任何收益的主要障碍。“虽然上周的事件并没有导致最近的熊市涨势立即逆转，但我们也不认为这表明新一轮牛市已经于去年10月开启。”标普500指数已经自去年10月的低点上涨15%策略师警告称，不利因素并未消退，降息时间可能晚于预期。他们援引强劲的劳动力市场和强势美元称，这些都是经济仍能承受更紧缩条件的迹象，美联储仍可能维持高利率。该报告称：“股票投资者真的没有理由对降息感到兴奋。”此外，策略师表示，上周五标普500指数每股收益增长的前瞻性指标转为负数，突显出盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆。在过去的23年里，每股收益负增长只发生过四次，而且每年都伴随着市场“显著”下跌。策略师补充道：“让这一分析更有说服力的是，从历史上看，股票的大部分价格下跌是在远期每股收益增长变为负数之后发生的。换句话说，在我们看来，这种盈利衰退并未被定价，”摩根士丹利几个月来一直警告称，投资者的盈利预期仍然过高，市场并未完全消化盈利衰退的痛苦，这可能导致2008年经济低迷的重现。该行首席股票策略师迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）表示，今年上半年股市可能下跌多达20%，他警告投资者要为更多的近期波动做好准备。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic周一也重申，投资者应该无视上周美联储利率决议引发的股市反弹，因为美国经济的反通胀（disinflation）过程可能只是“暂时的”。注：通货膨胀速度下降，此时经济仍然处于通货膨胀的状态。Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中写道，他认为今年前三个月可能标志着“市场的拐点”，第二和第三季度可能进入颠簸期，随后到年底基本面将再次恶化，因为美联储可能会在一段时间内保持高利率。以Kolanovic为首的策略师团队写道，“我们建议利用当前的市场反弹来减少风险敞口”。他指出，此前风险情绪导致投资者重新涌入加密货币相关股票和Meme股票等投机资产。强劲的劳动力市场可能给“软着陆”的情景浇了一盆冷水，即美联储可能难以在经济持续增长的同时抑制通胀。根据Kolanovic的说法，如果“软着陆”无法实现，将导致今年的股市赢家出现均值回归。在上周五非农就业人数超预期激增打击市场降息预期后，Kolanovic现在预计美联储3月和5月将各加息25个基点，然后长时间将利率维持在高水平。即使整体通胀率有望下降，但Kolanovic预计工资上涨将对企业利润率构成压力，这或引发更多裁员活动。他补充道：“因此，在这种情况下，通胀下滑不会有什么值得庆祝的，因为利率处于更加限制性的状态，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，除非风险事件迫使利率重置。”作为华尔街最大的乐观主义者之一，Kolanovic在2022年的大部分预测都落空。此后，由于今年经济前景疲软，他改变了观点，在去年12月中旬削减了股票配置。上个月，他表示经济正走向低迷。由于担心经济衰退和美联储过度紧缩，该银行再次建议减持股票。不过，Kolanovic在去年10月份的低迷时期敦促投资者逢低买入中国股票，这一呼吁被证明是正确的，MSCI中国指数自去年10月初以来已上涨超过26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888269769,"gmtCreate":1631499792151,"gmtModify":1676530558752,"author":{"id":"3577356484434070","authorId":"3577356484434070","name":"liying富婆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c785c609296af79f85e020bfc42aa6de","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577356484434070","idStr":"3577356484434070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xiaomi 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