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Skyshin
2022-02-11
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2021-03-02
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Is the Fed the root cause of rising U.S. bond yields?
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>$850 😋😋😋","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>$850 😋😋😋","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$$850 😋😋😋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092872772","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365027373,"gmtCreate":1614681989192,"gmtModify":1704773948070,"author":{"id":"3575545135481956","authorId":"3575545135481956","name":"Skyshin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b7fb9ffdfdb9c83a767fa4f6e69c37","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575545135481956","idStr":"3575545135481956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??♂️","listText":"??♂️","text":"??♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365027373","repostId":"1140351621","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140351621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614673583,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140351621?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-02 16:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed the root cause of rising U.S. bond yields?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140351621","media":"新浪财经","summary":"当前美债收益率回升加快，笔者认为，其根本原因在于美债供过于求，且这种回升趋势已使美国财政部和美联储陷入两难困境。\n供大于求导致美债收益率快速回升\n从2020年三季度开始，美国国债收益率缓慢上行，今年2","content":"<p>At present, the recovery of U.S. bond yields is accelerating. The author believes that the fundamental reason lies in the oversupply of U.S. bonds, and this recovery trend has put the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.</p><p>Rapid recovery in U.S. bond yields as supply exceeds demand</p><p>Since the third quarter of 2020, the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States has slowly risen, and it has accelerated since February this year. Last week, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States once exceeded 1.6%, reaching the highest point in a year. Inflation and inflation expectations are undoubtedly important reasons, but the oversupply of U.S. bond issuance is fundamental.</p><p>In 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department introduced three rounds of fiscal relief plans totaling $2.2 trillion, resulting in a sharp increase in the fiscal deficit and a sharp increase in the issuance of Treasury Bond. As of December 2020, the balance of Treasury Bond amounted to $27.9 trillion, a record high of 137% of GDP. More importantly, it is also the first year of post-crisis fiscal expansion, and the balance investor structure of the US Treasury Bond has changed significantly compared with 2009.</p><p>First, the proportion of foreign investors has dropped sharply. From 2008 to 2009, the balance of U.S. Treasury Bond expanded from 7.6 trillion USD to 8.8 trillion USD, and foreign investors increased their holdings from 3.3 trillion USD to 3.7 trillion USD, accounting for about 42%; From 2019 to 2020, the balance of U.S. Treasury Bond ballooned from $19.4 trillion to $27.9 trillion, while foreign investors only slightly increased their holdings from $6.8 trillion to $7.1 trillion, accounting for a sharp drop from 35.1% to 25.4%, of which foreign officials held only $4.2 trillion, accounting for 15%, the lowest level since 2007. This means that nearly all new U.S. debt is bought by domestic investors in the United States.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve became the main holder of new U.S. debt. Domestic investors in U.S. debt include the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, government funds and other institutions, and their structure in 2020 is also significantly different from that in 2009. First, the Federal Reserve increased its holdings significantly, from $2.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion, accounting for 17.5%. Second, the share of other institutions such as bond funds, hedge funds, insurance and private equity rose to 31.2%, replacing government funds as the largest holders of Treasury Bond. Namely, of the $4.55 trillion in Treasury Bond added in 2020, the Federal Reserve held $2.4 trillion, or 53%, and institutions such as funds, insurance, and private equity held 1.6 trillion, or 35%, which combined nearly 90%.</p><p>The Fed's increase in holdings of U.S. debt is only a coordination of fiscal policy, not an investment demand for U.S. debt. The sharp decline in the proportion of foreign investors means that the supply of U.S. bonds exceeds the demand, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in U.S. bond prices and the rise in yields. Last week, the bid multiple of the US Treasury's $62 billion seven-year Treasury Bond auction was only 2.04, a new low since 2009, indicating that the gap between supply and demand of US debt is further widening.</p><p>The Paradox of Large Issuance of U.S. Treasury and Rising U.S. Treasury Yield</p><p>First of all, because the supply of U.S. debt exceeds the demand on a global scale, the U.S. Treasury Department is facing the paradox of U.S. debt issuance. In order to increase the investment demand of U.S. debt, the Ministry of Finance has to raise the coupon rate, and raising the coupon rate is contrary to the original intention of the Ministry of Finance to issue Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the economic downturn, the best way to make up the fiscal deficit is to issue new debts to repay old debts. The longer the term and the lower the yield, the more favorable it is to repay principal and interest. But the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has climbed 162% from 0.55% at the end of July last year to 1.44% now. The coupon rate of newly issued US bonds will be directly affected by the yield of existing US bonds.</p><p>With the rise of the yield, the interest burden of the US Treasury will become higher and higher, the attributes of the safe assets of US debt may decline, and even the phenomenon of US debt default may occur. Therefore, U.S. debt cannot be issued indefinitely, and the date when the interest on U.S. debt cannot be paid is when U.S. debt has to stop issuing additional debt.</p><p>Secondly, the Fed faces the paradox of U.S. debt purchases. The Fed's continuous purchase of U.S. bonds is aimed at cooperating with the Treasury Department to lower yields (especially long-term interest rates), while providing liquidity to society, lowering market interest rates, and boosting employment and the economy, but the actual result may not be the case.</p><p>Since February this year, with the improvement of economic data, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate to control inflation has risen sharply, and U.S. bonds have begun to be sold off, and the price has accelerated.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the largest holders of current U.S. debt are domestic institutions in the United States. These institutions buy U.S. bonds as part of their portfolio of securities assets, so they will change the trading direction at any time according to the portfolio yield.</p><p>When the price of U.S. bonds falls to a key point, it will trigger more sell order and cause the price to fall further, making the yield curve extremely steep.</p><p>Therefore, even if the Fed holds most of the new Treasury Bond, it can't stop U.S. bond yields from rising. Not only that, the more the Fed buys, the less investment demand for U.S. debt, which leads to lower prices and higher yields.</p><p>The above two pairs of internal contradictions will restrict the continuous issuance of U.S. debt and the recovery of the U.S. economy, which leads to the paradox of the original intention and result of U.S. debt issuance.</p><p>The United States has experienced a prolonged period of low inflation and low unemployment coexisting after 2013, and the Fed's concerns about rising inflation due to falling unemployment decreased, while concerns about a \"bad cycle of decreasing inflation and inflation expectations\" increased. In order to avoid the risk of deflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve included the average inflation targeting system in its policy reserve in 2019. After the epidemic in 2020, the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States has widened sharply, and employment has become the priority target of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, the average inflation targeting system can expand the short-term fluctuation of inflation and narrow the fluctuation of unemployment rate.</p><p>The average inflation targeting system means that the Fed does not need to rate hike immediately when inflation reaches 2%, but it also increases the risk of inflation overshoot, which is not conducive to the realization of the Fed's forward-looking guidance. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve publicly declared that the rise in U.S. bond yields was a good sign of the economy and should be tolerated.</p><p>However, the market generally believes that under the loose monetary policy, the economy may overheat, causing inflation to exceed the range that the Fed can control, and eventually it will still tighten the currency and raise the base interest rate. Therefore, the Fed's comfort to the market has led to a further upward trend in U.S. bond yields.</p><p>Paradox will trigger three trends</p><p>First, U.S. inflation will continue to rise. From a fundamental point of view, wages are sticky, and the recovery of the labor force will not make the rising wages fall rapidly, and there will even be \"labor shortage\" in some industries, which will lead to the continued rise of wages.</p><p>On a technical level, the outbreak of the pandemic in the first half of last year dropped prices sharply by at least 0.5%, which pushed down the base of inflation this year, especially from March to April.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the average inflation targeting system will allow inflation to rise above 2%. As a result, U.S. core inflation is likely to exceed 2% in the first half of this year, with inflation around 2% for the full year.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve will increase its purchases of U.S. bonds to control the upward rate of yields. However, as the Fed's holding ratio becomes higher and higher, the investment value of U.S. debt will further weaken, and the selloff in the international market will continue to push up yields. The current rise in U.S. bond yields is the beginning of a new trend, not a short-term phenomenon.</p><p>Under the condition that the epidemic is basically controlled and the economy basically recovers, the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases. Comparing the macro data when quantitative easing was withdrawn from 2013 to 2014, the author believes that this condition is met only when the GDP growth rate of the United States (after deducting the base factor) reaches more than 2.5% for two consecutive quarters and the unemployment rate is less than 4%. Considering the current technological progress, the aging population and other factors, it will probably take longer for the unemployment rate in the United States to stabilize below 4%.</p><p>Third, the US dollar will further depreciate and increase the export of inflation to the world.</p><p>From the domestic perspective of the United States, under the policy of the Federal Reserve continuing to purchase bonds and maintaining low interest rates, the base currency of the United States continued to expand. In January this year, M2 was as high as 25.9%, which increased the pressure of further depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p>Internationally, the difference in inflation expectations between the United States and major trading partners such as China, Japan and Europe has led to higher real exchange rates for these currencies against the US dollar. At the same time, the adjustment of the international monetary system has led to a further decline in the share of global foreign exchange reserves of the US dollar, weakening the demand for the US dollar.</p><p>However, nearly half of the global trade in goods and services is still denominated and settled in US dollars. The depreciation of the US dollar makes the United States export inflation to the world through international trade and international financial markets. Among them, the prices of international commodities have risen sharply first. In January this year, steel, copper, soybeans and corn rose by 40%-50% year-on-year, and the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold fluctuated greatly.</p><p>Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are under pressure to shift from fixed inflation targeting to average inflation targeting in order to increase tolerance for inflation.</p>","source":"lsy1568765880822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed the root cause of rising U.S. bond yields?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed the root cause of rising U.S. bond yields?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-02 16:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At present, the recovery of U.S. bond yields is accelerating. The author believes that the fundamental reason lies in the oversupply of U.S. bonds, and this recovery trend has put the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.</p><p>Rapid recovery in U.S. bond yields as supply exceeds demand</p><p>Since the third quarter of 2020, the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States has slowly risen, and it has accelerated since February this year. Last week, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States once exceeded 1.6%, reaching the highest point in a year. Inflation and inflation expectations are undoubtedly important reasons, but the oversupply of U.S. bond issuance is fundamental.</p><p>In 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department introduced three rounds of fiscal relief plans totaling $2.2 trillion, resulting in a sharp increase in the fiscal deficit and a sharp increase in the issuance of Treasury Bond. As of December 2020, the balance of Treasury Bond amounted to $27.9 trillion, a record high of 137% of GDP. More importantly, it is also the first year of post-crisis fiscal expansion, and the balance investor structure of the US Treasury Bond has changed significantly compared with 2009.</p><p>First, the proportion of foreign investors has dropped sharply. From 2008 to 2009, the balance of U.S. Treasury Bond expanded from 7.6 trillion USD to 8.8 trillion USD, and foreign investors increased their holdings from 3.3 trillion USD to 3.7 trillion USD, accounting for about 42%; From 2019 to 2020, the balance of U.S. Treasury Bond ballooned from $19.4 trillion to $27.9 trillion, while foreign investors only slightly increased their holdings from $6.8 trillion to $7.1 trillion, accounting for a sharp drop from 35.1% to 25.4%, of which foreign officials held only $4.2 trillion, accounting for 15%, the lowest level since 2007. This means that nearly all new U.S. debt is bought by domestic investors in the United States.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve became the main holder of new U.S. debt. Domestic investors in U.S. debt include the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, government funds and other institutions, and their structure in 2020 is also significantly different from that in 2009. First, the Federal Reserve increased its holdings significantly, from $2.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion, accounting for 17.5%. Second, the share of other institutions such as bond funds, hedge funds, insurance and private equity rose to 31.2%, replacing government funds as the largest holders of Treasury Bond. Namely, of the $4.55 trillion in Treasury Bond added in 2020, the Federal Reserve held $2.4 trillion, or 53%, and institutions such as funds, insurance, and private equity held 1.6 trillion, or 35%, which combined nearly 90%.</p><p>The Fed's increase in holdings of U.S. debt is only a coordination of fiscal policy, not an investment demand for U.S. debt. The sharp decline in the proportion of foreign investors means that the supply of U.S. bonds exceeds the demand, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in U.S. bond prices and the rise in yields. Last week, the bid multiple of the US Treasury's $62 billion seven-year Treasury Bond auction was only 2.04, a new low since 2009, indicating that the gap between supply and demand of US debt is further widening.</p><p>The Paradox of Large Issuance of U.S. Treasury and Rising U.S. Treasury Yield</p><p>First of all, because the supply of U.S. debt exceeds the demand on a global scale, the U.S. Treasury Department is facing the paradox of U.S. debt issuance. In order to increase the investment demand of U.S. debt, the Ministry of Finance has to raise the coupon rate, and raising the coupon rate is contrary to the original intention of the Ministry of Finance to issue Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the economic downturn, the best way to make up the fiscal deficit is to issue new debts to repay old debts. The longer the term and the lower the yield, the more favorable it is to repay principal and interest. But the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has climbed 162% from 0.55% at the end of July last year to 1.44% now. The coupon rate of newly issued US bonds will be directly affected by the yield of existing US bonds.</p><p>With the rise of the yield, the interest burden of the US Treasury will become higher and higher, the attributes of the safe assets of US debt may decline, and even the phenomenon of US debt default may occur. Therefore, U.S. debt cannot be issued indefinitely, and the date when the interest on U.S. debt cannot be paid is when U.S. debt has to stop issuing additional debt.</p><p>Secondly, the Fed faces the paradox of U.S. debt purchases. The Fed's continuous purchase of U.S. bonds is aimed at cooperating with the Treasury Department to lower yields (especially long-term interest rates), while providing liquidity to society, lowering market interest rates, and boosting employment and the economy, but the actual result may not be the case.</p><p>Since February this year, with the improvement of economic data, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate to control inflation has risen sharply, and U.S. bonds have begun to be sold off, and the price has accelerated.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the largest holders of current U.S. debt are domestic institutions in the United States. These institutions buy U.S. bonds as part of their portfolio of securities assets, so they will change the trading direction at any time according to the portfolio yield.</p><p>When the price of U.S. bonds falls to a key point, it will trigger more sell order and cause the price to fall further, making the yield curve extremely steep.</p><p>Therefore, even if the Fed holds most of the new Treasury Bond, it can't stop U.S. bond yields from rising. Not only that, the more the Fed buys, the less investment demand for U.S. debt, which leads to lower prices and higher yields.</p><p>The above two pairs of internal contradictions will restrict the continuous issuance of U.S. debt and the recovery of the U.S. economy, which leads to the paradox of the original intention and result of U.S. debt issuance.</p><p>The United States has experienced a prolonged period of low inflation and low unemployment coexisting after 2013, and the Fed's concerns about rising inflation due to falling unemployment decreased, while concerns about a \"bad cycle of decreasing inflation and inflation expectations\" increased. In order to avoid the risk of deflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve included the average inflation targeting system in its policy reserve in 2019. After the epidemic in 2020, the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States has widened sharply, and employment has become the priority target of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, the average inflation targeting system can expand the short-term fluctuation of inflation and narrow the fluctuation of unemployment rate.</p><p>The average inflation targeting system means that the Fed does not need to rate hike immediately when inflation reaches 2%, but it also increases the risk of inflation overshoot, which is not conducive to the realization of the Fed's forward-looking guidance. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve publicly declared that the rise in U.S. bond yields was a good sign of the economy and should be tolerated.</p><p>However, the market generally believes that under the loose monetary policy, the economy may overheat, causing inflation to exceed the range that the Fed can control, and eventually it will still tighten the currency and raise the base interest rate. Therefore, the Fed's comfort to the market has led to a further upward trend in U.S. bond yields.</p><p>Paradox will trigger three trends</p><p>First, U.S. inflation will continue to rise. From a fundamental point of view, wages are sticky, and the recovery of the labor force will not make the rising wages fall rapidly, and there will even be \"labor shortage\" in some industries, which will lead to the continued rise of wages.</p><p>On a technical level, the outbreak of the pandemic in the first half of last year dropped prices sharply by at least 0.5%, which pushed down the base of inflation this year, especially from March to April.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the average inflation targeting system will allow inflation to rise above 2%. As a result, U.S. core inflation is likely to exceed 2% in the first half of this year, with inflation around 2% for the full year.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve will increase its purchases of U.S. bonds to control the upward rate of yields. However, as the Fed's holding ratio becomes higher and higher, the investment value of U.S. debt will further weaken, and the selloff in the international market will continue to push up yields. The current rise in U.S. bond yields is the beginning of a new trend, not a short-term phenomenon.</p><p>Under the condition that the epidemic is basically controlled and the economy basically recovers, the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases. Comparing the macro data when quantitative easing was withdrawn from 2013 to 2014, the author believes that this condition is met only when the GDP growth rate of the United States (after deducting the base factor) reaches more than 2.5% for two consecutive quarters and the unemployment rate is less than 4%. Considering the current technological progress, the aging population and other factors, it will probably take longer for the unemployment rate in the United States to stabilize below 4%.</p><p>Third, the US dollar will further depreciate and increase the export of inflation to the world.</p><p>From the domestic perspective of the United States, under the policy of the Federal Reserve continuing to purchase bonds and maintaining low interest rates, the base currency of the United States continued to expand. In January this year, M2 was as high as 25.9%, which increased the pressure of further depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p>Internationally, the difference in inflation expectations between the United States and major trading partners such as China, Japan and Europe has led to higher real exchange rates for these currencies against the US dollar. At the same time, the adjustment of the international monetary system has led to a further decline in the share of global foreign exchange reserves of the US dollar, weakening the demand for the US dollar.</p><p>However, nearly half of the global trade in goods and services is still denominated and settled in US dollars. The depreciation of the US dollar makes the United States export inflation to the world through international trade and international financial markets. Among them, the prices of international commodities have risen sharply first. In January this year, steel, copper, soybeans and corn rose by 40%-50% year-on-year, and the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold fluctuated greatly.</p><p>Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are under pressure to shift from fixed inflation targeting to average inflation targeting in order to increase tolerance for inflation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-02/doc-ikftpnnz0602998.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-02/doc-ikftpnnz0602998.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140351621","content_text":"当前美债收益率回升加快，笔者认为，其根本原因在于美债供过于求，且这种回升趋势已使美国财政部和美联储陷入两难困境。\n供大于求导致美债收益率快速回升\n从2020年三季度开始，美国国债收益率缓慢上行，今年2月后加速攀升，上周美国10年期国债收益率一度突破1.6%，达到一年来的最高点。通胀和通胀预期无疑是重要原因，但美债发行供大于求才是根本。\n2020年，美国财政部出台了三轮共计2.2万亿美元的财政纾困计划，财政赤字急剧扩大，国债发行量大幅上升。截至2020年12月，国债余额达27.9万亿美元，与GDP比重高达137%，创下历史新高。更为重要的是，同为危机后财政扩张的第一年，美国国债余额投资者结构较2009年出现了明显变化。\n第一，外国投资者占比大幅下降。2008年至2009年，美国国债余额从7.6万亿美元扩大至8.8万亿美元，外国投资者从3.3万亿美元增持至3.7万亿美元，占比维持在42%左右；2019年至2020年，美国国债余额从19.4万亿美元膨胀至27.9万亿美元，而外国投资者仅从6.8万亿美元微幅增持至7.1万亿美元，占比从35.1%骤降至25.4%，其中外国官方持有仅4.2万亿美元，占比15%，是2007年以来的最低水平。这意味着新增美债几乎都是由美国国内投资者购买。\n第二，美联储成为新增美债的主要持有者。美债的国内投资者包括美联储、商业银行、政府基金、其他机构，2020年它们的结构也较2009年明显不同。一是美联储大幅增持，从2.5万亿美元增至4.7万亿美元，占比17.5%。二是债券基金、对冲基金、保险和私募股权等其他机构的占比升至31.2%，取代政府基金成为最大的国债持有者。即，在2020年新增的4.55万亿美元国债中，美联储持有2.4万亿美元，占53%，基金、保险和私募股权等机构持有1.6万亿，占35%，两者合计近90%。\n美联储对美债的增持只是对财政政策的配合，而非对美债的投资需求。外国投资者占比大幅下降意味着美债供大于求，这是美债价格下降、收益率上升的根本原因。上周美国财政部620亿美元的7年期国债拍卖的投标倍数仅2.04，创2009年以来新低，表明美债供需缺口正在进一步扩大。\n美债大量发行与美债收益率上涨的悖论\n首先，由于美债在全球范围内供大于求，美国财政部面临美债发行的悖论。为了提高美债的投资需求，财政部不得不提高发行票面利率，而提高票面利率又有悖于财政部发行国债的初衷。\n在经济低迷时期，弥补财政赤字的最优手段是发新债还旧债，年限越长、收益率越低越有利于还本付息。但美国10年期国债收益率从去年7月末的0.55%攀升至当前的1.44%，已增长了162%。新发美债的票面利率将直接受存量美债收益率的影响。\n随着收益率的上升，美国财政部的利息负担会越来越高，美债安全资产的属性可能下降，甚至出现美债违约的现象。所以，美债并非可无限量发行，美债利息无法兑付之日，就是美债不得不停止增发之时。\n其次，美联储面临美债购买悖论。美联储持续购入美债，目的是配合财政部压低收益率（尤其是长期利率），同时向社会提供流动性，降低市场利率，促进就业和经济，但实际结果可能并非如此。\n自今年2月份开始，随着经济数据好转，市场对美联储提高基准利率以控制通胀的预期大幅上升，美债开始遭到抛售，价格加速下跌。\n如前所述，当前美债的最大持有者是美国国内机构。这些机构购入美债是将其作为证券资产组合的一部分，因此会根据组合收益率的情况随时改变交易方向。\n当美债价格下跌到关键点位后，会触发更多的卖盘导致价格进一步下跌，使收益率曲线变得异常陡峭。\n因此，即使美联储持有大部分新增国债，仍不能阻止美债收益率上升。不仅如此，美联储买得越多，说明美债的投资需求越少，反而导致美债价格更低、收益率更高。\n上述两对内在矛盾将对美债的持续发行、美国经济复苏形成制约，这就导致了美债发行初衷与结果的悖论。\n美国在2013年后经历了长期的低通胀和低失业率并存，美联储对失业率下降导致通胀上升的担忧减少，而对“通胀和通胀预期不断降低的不良循环”的担忧增加。为了避免美国陷入通货紧缩风险，美联储在2019年将平均通胀目标制纳入政策储备。2020年疫情后，美国贫富差距急剧扩大，就业问题成为美联储货币政策的优先调控目标，而平均通胀目标制可以使通胀短期波动扩大、失业率波动缩小。\n平均通胀目标制意味着美联储无需在通胀达到2%时就立即加息，但也加大了通胀超调的风险，反而不利于实现美联储的前瞻性指引。上周二，美联储公开宣称美债收益率上升是经济向好的表现，应该予以容忍。\n但市场普遍认为，在宽松的货币政策下，经济可能走向过热，导致通胀超过美联储能够控制的范围，最终仍将收紧货币，提高基础利率。因此，美联储对市场的安抚反而导致美债收益率进一步上行。\n悖论将引发三个趋势\n第一，美国通胀将继续上行。从基本面看，工资具有粘性，劳动力的复苏并不会使上涨的工资迅速回落，甚至会有部分行业出现“用工荒”而导致工资继续上涨。\n从技术层面看，去年上半年疫情的暴发使价格急剧下跌至少0.5%，这压低了今年通胀的基数，尤其是3月至4月份通胀的基数效应更大。\n从政策层面看，平均通胀目标制将放任通胀走高至2%以上。因此，今年上半年，美国核心通胀很可能超过2%，全年通胀在2%附近。\n第二，美联储将加大对美债的购买，以控制收益率上行速度。但随着美联储的持有比例越来越高，美债的投资价值将进一步减弱，国际市场的抛售将继续推高收益率。当前美债收益率上涨是新趋势的开始，而非短期现象。\n在疫情得到基本控制、经济基本复苏的条件下，美联储将结束购债。对比2013年至2014年量化宽松退出时的宏观数据，笔者认为，在美国GDP连续两个季度增速（扣除基数因素后）达2.5%以上、失业率低于4%时才满足这一条件。考虑到当前技术进步、人口老龄化等因素，美国失业率稳定在4%以下恐怕需要更久的时间。\n第三，美元将进一步贬值，并加大向全球输出通胀。\n从美国国内看，在美联储持续购债并维持低利率的政策下，美国基础货币持续扩张，今年1月份M2高达25.9%，增加了美元进一步贬值的压力。\n从国际上看，美国与中日欧等主要贸易伙伴在通胀预期上的差异，导致这些货币兑美元的实际汇率更高。同时，国际货币体系的调整导致美元的全球外汇储备份额进一步下降，削弱对美元的需求。\n但全球商品和服务贸易近半数仍由美元计价、结算，美元贬值使美国通过国际贸易和国际金融市场向全球输出通胀。其中，国际大宗商品的价格已先行大幅上涨。今年1月份，钢材、铜、大豆和玉米等同比上涨40%-50%不等，黄金等避险资产价格大幅波动。\n为了提高对通胀的容忍度，欧洲央行和日本央行均受到由固定通胀目标制转变为平均通胀目标制的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9092872772,"gmtCreate":1644594875529,"gmtModify":1676533944871,"author":{"id":"3575545135481956","authorId":"3575545135481956","name":"Skyshin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b7fb9ffdfdb9c83a767fa4f6e69c37","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575545135481956","authorIdStr":"3575545135481956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>$850 😋😋😋","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>$850 😋😋😋","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$$850 😋😋😋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092872772","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365027373,"gmtCreate":1614681989192,"gmtModify":1704773948070,"author":{"id":"3575545135481956","authorId":"3575545135481956","name":"Skyshin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b7fb9ffdfdb9c83a767fa4f6e69c37","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575545135481956","authorIdStr":"3575545135481956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??♂️","listText":"??♂️","text":"??♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365027373","repostId":"1140351621","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140351621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614673583,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140351621?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-02 16:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed the root cause of rising U.S. bond yields?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140351621","media":"新浪财经","summary":"当前美债收益率回升加快，笔者认为，其根本原因在于美债供过于求，且这种回升趋势已使美国财政部和美联储陷入两难困境。\n供大于求导致美债收益率快速回升\n从2020年三季度开始，美国国债收益率缓慢上行，今年2","content":"<p>At present, the recovery of U.S. bond yields is accelerating. The author believes that the fundamental reason lies in the oversupply of U.S. bonds, and this recovery trend has put the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.</p><p>Rapid recovery in U.S. bond yields as supply exceeds demand</p><p>Since the third quarter of 2020, the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States has slowly risen, and it has accelerated since February this year. Last week, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States once exceeded 1.6%, reaching the highest point in a year. Inflation and inflation expectations are undoubtedly important reasons, but the oversupply of U.S. bond issuance is fundamental.</p><p>In 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department introduced three rounds of fiscal relief plans totaling $2.2 trillion, resulting in a sharp increase in the fiscal deficit and a sharp increase in the issuance of Treasury Bond. As of December 2020, the balance of Treasury Bond amounted to $27.9 trillion, a record high of 137% of GDP. More importantly, it is also the first year of post-crisis fiscal expansion, and the balance investor structure of the US Treasury Bond has changed significantly compared with 2009.</p><p>First, the proportion of foreign investors has dropped sharply. From 2008 to 2009, the balance of U.S. Treasury Bond expanded from 7.6 trillion USD to 8.8 trillion USD, and foreign investors increased their holdings from 3.3 trillion USD to 3.7 trillion USD, accounting for about 42%; From 2019 to 2020, the balance of U.S. Treasury Bond ballooned from $19.4 trillion to $27.9 trillion, while foreign investors only slightly increased their holdings from $6.8 trillion to $7.1 trillion, accounting for a sharp drop from 35.1% to 25.4%, of which foreign officials held only $4.2 trillion, accounting for 15%, the lowest level since 2007. This means that nearly all new U.S. debt is bought by domestic investors in the United States.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve became the main holder of new U.S. debt. Domestic investors in U.S. debt include the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, government funds and other institutions, and their structure in 2020 is also significantly different from that in 2009. First, the Federal Reserve increased its holdings significantly, from $2.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion, accounting for 17.5%. Second, the share of other institutions such as bond funds, hedge funds, insurance and private equity rose to 31.2%, replacing government funds as the largest holders of Treasury Bond. Namely, of the $4.55 trillion in Treasury Bond added in 2020, the Federal Reserve held $2.4 trillion, or 53%, and institutions such as funds, insurance, and private equity held 1.6 trillion, or 35%, which combined nearly 90%.</p><p>The Fed's increase in holdings of U.S. debt is only a coordination of fiscal policy, not an investment demand for U.S. debt. The sharp decline in the proportion of foreign investors means that the supply of U.S. bonds exceeds the demand, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in U.S. bond prices and the rise in yields. Last week, the bid multiple of the US Treasury's $62 billion seven-year Treasury Bond auction was only 2.04, a new low since 2009, indicating that the gap between supply and demand of US debt is further widening.</p><p>The Paradox of Large Issuance of U.S. Treasury and Rising U.S. Treasury Yield</p><p>First of all, because the supply of U.S. debt exceeds the demand on a global scale, the U.S. Treasury Department is facing the paradox of U.S. debt issuance. In order to increase the investment demand of U.S. debt, the Ministry of Finance has to raise the coupon rate, and raising the coupon rate is contrary to the original intention of the Ministry of Finance to issue Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the economic downturn, the best way to make up the fiscal deficit is to issue new debts to repay old debts. The longer the term and the lower the yield, the more favorable it is to repay principal and interest. But the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has climbed 162% from 0.55% at the end of July last year to 1.44% now. The coupon rate of newly issued US bonds will be directly affected by the yield of existing US bonds.</p><p>With the rise of the yield, the interest burden of the US Treasury will become higher and higher, the attributes of the safe assets of US debt may decline, and even the phenomenon of US debt default may occur. Therefore, U.S. debt cannot be issued indefinitely, and the date when the interest on U.S. debt cannot be paid is when U.S. debt has to stop issuing additional debt.</p><p>Secondly, the Fed faces the paradox of U.S. debt purchases. The Fed's continuous purchase of U.S. bonds is aimed at cooperating with the Treasury Department to lower yields (especially long-term interest rates), while providing liquidity to society, lowering market interest rates, and boosting employment and the economy, but the actual result may not be the case.</p><p>Since February this year, with the improvement of economic data, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate to control inflation has risen sharply, and U.S. bonds have begun to be sold off, and the price has accelerated.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the largest holders of current U.S. debt are domestic institutions in the United States. These institutions buy U.S. bonds as part of their portfolio of securities assets, so they will change the trading direction at any time according to the portfolio yield.</p><p>When the price of U.S. bonds falls to a key point, it will trigger more sell order and cause the price to fall further, making the yield curve extremely steep.</p><p>Therefore, even if the Fed holds most of the new Treasury Bond, it can't stop U.S. bond yields from rising. Not only that, the more the Fed buys, the less investment demand for U.S. debt, which leads to lower prices and higher yields.</p><p>The above two pairs of internal contradictions will restrict the continuous issuance of U.S. debt and the recovery of the U.S. economy, which leads to the paradox of the original intention and result of U.S. debt issuance.</p><p>The United States has experienced a prolonged period of low inflation and low unemployment coexisting after 2013, and the Fed's concerns about rising inflation due to falling unemployment decreased, while concerns about a \"bad cycle of decreasing inflation and inflation expectations\" increased. In order to avoid the risk of deflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve included the average inflation targeting system in its policy reserve in 2019. After the epidemic in 2020, the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States has widened sharply, and employment has become the priority target of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, the average inflation targeting system can expand the short-term fluctuation of inflation and narrow the fluctuation of unemployment rate.</p><p>The average inflation targeting system means that the Fed does not need to rate hike immediately when inflation reaches 2%, but it also increases the risk of inflation overshoot, which is not conducive to the realization of the Fed's forward-looking guidance. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve publicly declared that the rise in U.S. bond yields was a good sign of the economy and should be tolerated.</p><p>However, the market generally believes that under the loose monetary policy, the economy may overheat, causing inflation to exceed the range that the Fed can control, and eventually it will still tighten the currency and raise the base interest rate. Therefore, the Fed's comfort to the market has led to a further upward trend in U.S. bond yields.</p><p>Paradox will trigger three trends</p><p>First, U.S. inflation will continue to rise. From a fundamental point of view, wages are sticky, and the recovery of the labor force will not make the rising wages fall rapidly, and there will even be \"labor shortage\" in some industries, which will lead to the continued rise of wages.</p><p>On a technical level, the outbreak of the pandemic in the first half of last year dropped prices sharply by at least 0.5%, which pushed down the base of inflation this year, especially from March to April.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the average inflation targeting system will allow inflation to rise above 2%. As a result, U.S. core inflation is likely to exceed 2% in the first half of this year, with inflation around 2% for the full year.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve will increase its purchases of U.S. bonds to control the upward rate of yields. However, as the Fed's holding ratio becomes higher and higher, the investment value of U.S. debt will further weaken, and the selloff in the international market will continue to push up yields. The current rise in U.S. bond yields is the beginning of a new trend, not a short-term phenomenon.</p><p>Under the condition that the epidemic is basically controlled and the economy basically recovers, the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases. Comparing the macro data when quantitative easing was withdrawn from 2013 to 2014, the author believes that this condition is met only when the GDP growth rate of the United States (after deducting the base factor) reaches more than 2.5% for two consecutive quarters and the unemployment rate is less than 4%. Considering the current technological progress, the aging population and other factors, it will probably take longer for the unemployment rate in the United States to stabilize below 4%.</p><p>Third, the US dollar will further depreciate and increase the export of inflation to the world.</p><p>From the domestic perspective of the United States, under the policy of the Federal Reserve continuing to purchase bonds and maintaining low interest rates, the base currency of the United States continued to expand. In January this year, M2 was as high as 25.9%, which increased the pressure of further depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p>Internationally, the difference in inflation expectations between the United States and major trading partners such as China, Japan and Europe has led to higher real exchange rates for these currencies against the US dollar. At the same time, the adjustment of the international monetary system has led to a further decline in the share of global foreign exchange reserves of the US dollar, weakening the demand for the US dollar.</p><p>However, nearly half of the global trade in goods and services is still denominated and settled in US dollars. The depreciation of the US dollar makes the United States export inflation to the world through international trade and international financial markets. Among them, the prices of international commodities have risen sharply first. In January this year, steel, copper, soybeans and corn rose by 40%-50% year-on-year, and the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold fluctuated greatly.</p><p>Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are under pressure to shift from fixed inflation targeting to average inflation targeting in order to increase tolerance for inflation.</p>","source":"lsy1568765880822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed the root cause of rising U.S. bond yields?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed the root cause of rising U.S. bond yields?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-02 16:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At present, the recovery of U.S. bond yields is accelerating. The author believes that the fundamental reason lies in the oversupply of U.S. bonds, and this recovery trend has put the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.</p><p>Rapid recovery in U.S. bond yields as supply exceeds demand</p><p>Since the third quarter of 2020, the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States has slowly risen, and it has accelerated since February this year. Last week, the yield of 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States once exceeded 1.6%, reaching the highest point in a year. Inflation and inflation expectations are undoubtedly important reasons, but the oversupply of U.S. bond issuance is fundamental.</p><p>In 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department introduced three rounds of fiscal relief plans totaling $2.2 trillion, resulting in a sharp increase in the fiscal deficit and a sharp increase in the issuance of Treasury Bond. As of December 2020, the balance of Treasury Bond amounted to $27.9 trillion, a record high of 137% of GDP. More importantly, it is also the first year of post-crisis fiscal expansion, and the balance investor structure of the US Treasury Bond has changed significantly compared with 2009.</p><p>First, the proportion of foreign investors has dropped sharply. From 2008 to 2009, the balance of U.S. Treasury Bond expanded from 7.6 trillion USD to 8.8 trillion USD, and foreign investors increased their holdings from 3.3 trillion USD to 3.7 trillion USD, accounting for about 42%; From 2019 to 2020, the balance of U.S. Treasury Bond ballooned from $19.4 trillion to $27.9 trillion, while foreign investors only slightly increased their holdings from $6.8 trillion to $7.1 trillion, accounting for a sharp drop from 35.1% to 25.4%, of which foreign officials held only $4.2 trillion, accounting for 15%, the lowest level since 2007. This means that nearly all new U.S. debt is bought by domestic investors in the United States.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve became the main holder of new U.S. debt. Domestic investors in U.S. debt include the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, government funds and other institutions, and their structure in 2020 is also significantly different from that in 2009. First, the Federal Reserve increased its holdings significantly, from $2.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion, accounting for 17.5%. Second, the share of other institutions such as bond funds, hedge funds, insurance and private equity rose to 31.2%, replacing government funds as the largest holders of Treasury Bond. Namely, of the $4.55 trillion in Treasury Bond added in 2020, the Federal Reserve held $2.4 trillion, or 53%, and institutions such as funds, insurance, and private equity held 1.6 trillion, or 35%, which combined nearly 90%.</p><p>The Fed's increase in holdings of U.S. debt is only a coordination of fiscal policy, not an investment demand for U.S. debt. The sharp decline in the proportion of foreign investors means that the supply of U.S. bonds exceeds the demand, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in U.S. bond prices and the rise in yields. Last week, the bid multiple of the US Treasury's $62 billion seven-year Treasury Bond auction was only 2.04, a new low since 2009, indicating that the gap between supply and demand of US debt is further widening.</p><p>The Paradox of Large Issuance of U.S. Treasury and Rising U.S. Treasury Yield</p><p>First of all, because the supply of U.S. debt exceeds the demand on a global scale, the U.S. Treasury Department is facing the paradox of U.S. debt issuance. In order to increase the investment demand of U.S. debt, the Ministry of Finance has to raise the coupon rate, and raising the coupon rate is contrary to the original intention of the Ministry of Finance to issue Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the economic downturn, the best way to make up the fiscal deficit is to issue new debts to repay old debts. The longer the term and the lower the yield, the more favorable it is to repay principal and interest. But the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has climbed 162% from 0.55% at the end of July last year to 1.44% now. The coupon rate of newly issued US bonds will be directly affected by the yield of existing US bonds.</p><p>With the rise of the yield, the interest burden of the US Treasury will become higher and higher, the attributes of the safe assets of US debt may decline, and even the phenomenon of US debt default may occur. Therefore, U.S. debt cannot be issued indefinitely, and the date when the interest on U.S. debt cannot be paid is when U.S. debt has to stop issuing additional debt.</p><p>Secondly, the Fed faces the paradox of U.S. debt purchases. The Fed's continuous purchase of U.S. bonds is aimed at cooperating with the Treasury Department to lower yields (especially long-term interest rates), while providing liquidity to society, lowering market interest rates, and boosting employment and the economy, but the actual result may not be the case.</p><p>Since February this year, with the improvement of economic data, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate to control inflation has risen sharply, and U.S. bonds have begun to be sold off, and the price has accelerated.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the largest holders of current U.S. debt are domestic institutions in the United States. These institutions buy U.S. bonds as part of their portfolio of securities assets, so they will change the trading direction at any time according to the portfolio yield.</p><p>When the price of U.S. bonds falls to a key point, it will trigger more sell order and cause the price to fall further, making the yield curve extremely steep.</p><p>Therefore, even if the Fed holds most of the new Treasury Bond, it can't stop U.S. bond yields from rising. Not only that, the more the Fed buys, the less investment demand for U.S. debt, which leads to lower prices and higher yields.</p><p>The above two pairs of internal contradictions will restrict the continuous issuance of U.S. debt and the recovery of the U.S. economy, which leads to the paradox of the original intention and result of U.S. debt issuance.</p><p>The United States has experienced a prolonged period of low inflation and low unemployment coexisting after 2013, and the Fed's concerns about rising inflation due to falling unemployment decreased, while concerns about a \"bad cycle of decreasing inflation and inflation expectations\" increased. In order to avoid the risk of deflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve included the average inflation targeting system in its policy reserve in 2019. After the epidemic in 2020, the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States has widened sharply, and employment has become the priority target of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, the average inflation targeting system can expand the short-term fluctuation of inflation and narrow the fluctuation of unemployment rate.</p><p>The average inflation targeting system means that the Fed does not need to rate hike immediately when inflation reaches 2%, but it also increases the risk of inflation overshoot, which is not conducive to the realization of the Fed's forward-looking guidance. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve publicly declared that the rise in U.S. bond yields was a good sign of the economy and should be tolerated.</p><p>However, the market generally believes that under the loose monetary policy, the economy may overheat, causing inflation to exceed the range that the Fed can control, and eventually it will still tighten the currency and raise the base interest rate. Therefore, the Fed's comfort to the market has led to a further upward trend in U.S. bond yields.</p><p>Paradox will trigger three trends</p><p>First, U.S. inflation will continue to rise. From a fundamental point of view, wages are sticky, and the recovery of the labor force will not make the rising wages fall rapidly, and there will even be \"labor shortage\" in some industries, which will lead to the continued rise of wages.</p><p>On a technical level, the outbreak of the pandemic in the first half of last year dropped prices sharply by at least 0.5%, which pushed down the base of inflation this year, especially from March to April.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the average inflation targeting system will allow inflation to rise above 2%. As a result, U.S. core inflation is likely to exceed 2% in the first half of this year, with inflation around 2% for the full year.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve will increase its purchases of U.S. bonds to control the upward rate of yields. However, as the Fed's holding ratio becomes higher and higher, the investment value of U.S. debt will further weaken, and the selloff in the international market will continue to push up yields. The current rise in U.S. bond yields is the beginning of a new trend, not a short-term phenomenon.</p><p>Under the condition that the epidemic is basically controlled and the economy basically recovers, the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases. Comparing the macro data when quantitative easing was withdrawn from 2013 to 2014, the author believes that this condition is met only when the GDP growth rate of the United States (after deducting the base factor) reaches more than 2.5% for two consecutive quarters and the unemployment rate is less than 4%. Considering the current technological progress, the aging population and other factors, it will probably take longer for the unemployment rate in the United States to stabilize below 4%.</p><p>Third, the US dollar will further depreciate and increase the export of inflation to the world.</p><p>From the domestic perspective of the United States, under the policy of the Federal Reserve continuing to purchase bonds and maintaining low interest rates, the base currency of the United States continued to expand. In January this year, M2 was as high as 25.9%, which increased the pressure of further depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p>Internationally, the difference in inflation expectations between the United States and major trading partners such as China, Japan and Europe has led to higher real exchange rates for these currencies against the US dollar. At the same time, the adjustment of the international monetary system has led to a further decline in the share of global foreign exchange reserves of the US dollar, weakening the demand for the US dollar.</p><p>However, nearly half of the global trade in goods and services is still denominated and settled in US dollars. The depreciation of the US dollar makes the United States export inflation to the world through international trade and international financial markets. Among them, the prices of international commodities have risen sharply first. In January this year, steel, copper, soybeans and corn rose by 40%-50% year-on-year, and the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold fluctuated greatly.</p><p>Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are under pressure to shift from fixed inflation targeting to average inflation targeting in order to increase tolerance for inflation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-02/doc-ikftpnnz0602998.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-02/doc-ikftpnnz0602998.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140351621","content_text":"当前美债收益率回升加快，笔者认为，其根本原因在于美债供过于求，且这种回升趋势已使美国财政部和美联储陷入两难困境。\n供大于求导致美债收益率快速回升\n从2020年三季度开始，美国国债收益率缓慢上行，今年2月后加速攀升，上周美国10年期国债收益率一度突破1.6%，达到一年来的最高点。通胀和通胀预期无疑是重要原因，但美债发行供大于求才是根本。\n2020年，美国财政部出台了三轮共计2.2万亿美元的财政纾困计划，财政赤字急剧扩大，国债发行量大幅上升。截至2020年12月，国债余额达27.9万亿美元，与GDP比重高达137%，创下历史新高。更为重要的是，同为危机后财政扩张的第一年，美国国债余额投资者结构较2009年出现了明显变化。\n第一，外国投资者占比大幅下降。2008年至2009年，美国国债余额从7.6万亿美元扩大至8.8万亿美元，外国投资者从3.3万亿美元增持至3.7万亿美元，占比维持在42%左右；2019年至2020年，美国国债余额从19.4万亿美元膨胀至27.9万亿美元，而外国投资者仅从6.8万亿美元微幅增持至7.1万亿美元，占比从35.1%骤降至25.4%，其中外国官方持有仅4.2万亿美元，占比15%，是2007年以来的最低水平。这意味着新增美债几乎都是由美国国内投资者购买。\n第二，美联储成为新增美债的主要持有者。美债的国内投资者包括美联储、商业银行、政府基金、其他机构，2020年它们的结构也较2009年明显不同。一是美联储大幅增持，从2.5万亿美元增至4.7万亿美元，占比17.5%。二是债券基金、对冲基金、保险和私募股权等其他机构的占比升至31.2%，取代政府基金成为最大的国债持有者。即，在2020年新增的4.55万亿美元国债中，美联储持有2.4万亿美元，占53%，基金、保险和私募股权等机构持有1.6万亿，占35%，两者合计近90%。\n美联储对美债的增持只是对财政政策的配合，而非对美债的投资需求。外国投资者占比大幅下降意味着美债供大于求，这是美债价格下降、收益率上升的根本原因。上周美国财政部620亿美元的7年期国债拍卖的投标倍数仅2.04，创2009年以来新低，表明美债供需缺口正在进一步扩大。\n美债大量发行与美债收益率上涨的悖论\n首先，由于美债在全球范围内供大于求，美国财政部面临美债发行的悖论。为了提高美债的投资需求，财政部不得不提高发行票面利率，而提高票面利率又有悖于财政部发行国债的初衷。\n在经济低迷时期，弥补财政赤字的最优手段是发新债还旧债，年限越长、收益率越低越有利于还本付息。但美国10年期国债收益率从去年7月末的0.55%攀升至当前的1.44%，已增长了162%。新发美债的票面利率将直接受存量美债收益率的影响。\n随着收益率的上升，美国财政部的利息负担会越来越高，美债安全资产的属性可能下降，甚至出现美债违约的现象。所以，美债并非可无限量发行，美债利息无法兑付之日，就是美债不得不停止增发之时。\n其次，美联储面临美债购买悖论。美联储持续购入美债，目的是配合财政部压低收益率（尤其是长期利率），同时向社会提供流动性，降低市场利率，促进就业和经济，但实际结果可能并非如此。\n自今年2月份开始，随着经济数据好转，市场对美联储提高基准利率以控制通胀的预期大幅上升，美债开始遭到抛售，价格加速下跌。\n如前所述，当前美债的最大持有者是美国国内机构。这些机构购入美债是将其作为证券资产组合的一部分，因此会根据组合收益率的情况随时改变交易方向。\n当美债价格下跌到关键点位后，会触发更多的卖盘导致价格进一步下跌，使收益率曲线变得异常陡峭。\n因此，即使美联储持有大部分新增国债，仍不能阻止美债收益率上升。不仅如此，美联储买得越多，说明美债的投资需求越少，反而导致美债价格更低、收益率更高。\n上述两对内在矛盾将对美债的持续发行、美国经济复苏形成制约，这就导致了美债发行初衷与结果的悖论。\n美国在2013年后经历了长期的低通胀和低失业率并存，美联储对失业率下降导致通胀上升的担忧减少，而对“通胀和通胀预期不断降低的不良循环”的担忧增加。为了避免美国陷入通货紧缩风险，美联储在2019年将平均通胀目标制纳入政策储备。2020年疫情后，美国贫富差距急剧扩大，就业问题成为美联储货币政策的优先调控目标，而平均通胀目标制可以使通胀短期波动扩大、失业率波动缩小。\n平均通胀目标制意味着美联储无需在通胀达到2%时就立即加息，但也加大了通胀超调的风险，反而不利于实现美联储的前瞻性指引。上周二，美联储公开宣称美债收益率上升是经济向好的表现，应该予以容忍。\n但市场普遍认为，在宽松的货币政策下，经济可能走向过热，导致通胀超过美联储能够控制的范围，最终仍将收紧货币，提高基础利率。因此，美联储对市场的安抚反而导致美债收益率进一步上行。\n悖论将引发三个趋势\n第一，美国通胀将继续上行。从基本面看，工资具有粘性，劳动力的复苏并不会使上涨的工资迅速回落，甚至会有部分行业出现“用工荒”而导致工资继续上涨。\n从技术层面看，去年上半年疫情的暴发使价格急剧下跌至少0.5%，这压低了今年通胀的基数，尤其是3月至4月份通胀的基数效应更大。\n从政策层面看，平均通胀目标制将放任通胀走高至2%以上。因此，今年上半年，美国核心通胀很可能超过2%，全年通胀在2%附近。\n第二，美联储将加大对美债的购买，以控制收益率上行速度。但随着美联储的持有比例越来越高，美债的投资价值将进一步减弱，国际市场的抛售将继续推高收益率。当前美债收益率上涨是新趋势的开始，而非短期现象。\n在疫情得到基本控制、经济基本复苏的条件下，美联储将结束购债。对比2013年至2014年量化宽松退出时的宏观数据，笔者认为，在美国GDP连续两个季度增速（扣除基数因素后）达2.5%以上、失业率低于4%时才满足这一条件。考虑到当前技术进步、人口老龄化等因素，美国失业率稳定在4%以下恐怕需要更久的时间。\n第三，美元将进一步贬值，并加大向全球输出通胀。\n从美国国内看，在美联储持续购债并维持低利率的政策下，美国基础货币持续扩张，今年1月份M2高达25.9%，增加了美元进一步贬值的压力。\n从国际上看，美国与中日欧等主要贸易伙伴在通胀预期上的差异，导致这些货币兑美元的实际汇率更高。同时，国际货币体系的调整导致美元的全球外汇储备份额进一步下降，削弱对美元的需求。\n但全球商品和服务贸易近半数仍由美元计价、结算，美元贬值使美国通过国际贸易和国际金融市场向全球输出通胀。其中，国际大宗商品的价格已先行大幅上涨。今年1月份，钢材、铜、大豆和玉米等同比上涨40%-50%不等，黄金等避险资产价格大幅波动。\n为了提高对通胀的容忍度，欧洲央行和日本央行均受到由固定通胀目标制转变为平均通胀目标制的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
