尼克欢 personal page - To The Moon

尼克欢

尼克欢

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2023-07-14

2022-08-06

🐮

Opening | U.S. stocks open low, demon stocks Shang Multiplier Digital Branch pulled up again

2022-08-03

$尚乘数科(HKD)$mark

2021-06-28

？？？？

HKEx will resume trading at 1:30 p.m.

2021-06-08

？

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-07

$Square, Inc(SQ)$?

Square turns around year-over-year on $5.057 billion in Q1 revenue

2021-04-30

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-16

Mark 16 May

@小虎投资狮城:新加坡航空3月旅客運輸量跌了91%

2021-03-10

?

"Wood Sister" Responds to the Plunge of Technology Stocks: The Bull Market is Expanding, and it is a Good Opportunity to Bargain-hunting

2021-03-08

?️

Preview this week: The National Two Sessions are closed! U.S. 1.9 trillion stimulus endgame

2021-03-03

mark

General Motors' Cruise is rumored to acquire autonomous driving company Voyage

2021-02-26

Mark

The last time US Treasury yields violently pulled up, what happened?

2021-02-16

interesting

Ali, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road

2021-02-16

mark

Ali, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road

2021-02-12

GG

Some Industrial Hemp Stocks Lower Premarket, Tilray Drops Over 12%

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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21:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | U.S. stocks open low, demon stocks Shang Multiplier Digital Branch pulled up again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193372540","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘下跌215.87点，跌幅0.66%，报32510.95点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, August 5, the Dow opened down 215.87 points, or 0.66%, at 32,510.95; The S&P 500 index opened down 40.79 points, or 0.98%, at 4111.15; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 160.68 points, or 1.26%, at 12,559.90.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128cfea83012beb0d839f83183b33c6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba fell 3%. Alibaba announced its first-quarter financial report on Thursday, and its revenue exceeded expectations, rising 1.79% on the same day.</p><p>\"Demon stocks\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shang multiplied numbers</a>It opened higher and rose more than 12%, and fell more than 27% on Thursday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15572a94b3f0f50b96c4b0a3cbf17a83\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell nearly 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The shareholders' general meeting approved the share split transaction proposal of 1 share for 3 shares. Musk said that he would still consider share buybacks based on cash flow in the future.</p><p>\"Is the American version hungry?\" DoorDash rose by more than 4%, Q2 revenue increased by 30% year-on-year to $1.6 billion, and total order value (GOV) increased by 25% year-on-year to $13.1 billion, exceeding expectations.</p><p>Ride-hailing giant Lyft rose more than 6%, Q2 revenue rose 30% year-on-year to $991 million, and the number of active passengers increased 16% year-on-year to 19.9 million, the highest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Cloudflare rose 14%, Q2 revenue increased 54% year-on-year to $235 million, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $968 million-972 million, exceeding expectations.</p><p>Beyond Meat rose 1.78%, Q2 net loss expanded nearly four times year-on-year to $971.3 billion, and lowered its full-year revenue to $470 million-$520 million.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>It fell by more than 3%, and recorded a net loss of US$208 million in Q2, which was worse than expected, turning from profit to loss year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Down 0.88%, Amazon will acquire iRobot in cash at a price of $61 per share.</p><p>Western Digital fell by more than 8%, with its Q2 revenue of $4.528 billion and net profit of $301 million, both of which fell short of market expectations.</p><p>AMC Cinema fell by more than 10%, Q2 revenue of $1.166 billion was slightly less than expected, and the company plans to issue about 517 million shares of preferred shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a>It plunged more than 16% after announcing another delay of commercial flight services in space until the second quarter of 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | U.S. stocks open low, demon stocks Shang Multiplier Digital Branch pulled up again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-05 21:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, August 5, the Dow opened down 215.87 points, or 0.66%, at 32,510.95; The S&P 500 index opened down 40.79 points, or 0.98%, at 4111.15; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 160.68 points, or 1.26%, at 12,559.90.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128cfea83012beb0d839f83183b33c6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba fell 3%. Alibaba announced its first-quarter financial report on Thursday, and its revenue exceeded expectations, rising 1.79% on the same day.</p><p>\"Demon stocks\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shang multiplied numbers</a>It opened higher and rose more than 12%, and fell more than 27% on Thursday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15572a94b3f0f50b96c4b0a3cbf17a83\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell nearly 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The shareholders' general meeting approved the share split transaction proposal of 1 share for 3 shares. Musk said that he would still consider share buybacks based on cash flow in the future.</p><p>\"Is the American version hungry?\" DoorDash rose by more than 4%, Q2 revenue increased by 30% year-on-year to $1.6 billion, and total order value (GOV) increased by 25% year-on-year to $13.1 billion, exceeding expectations.</p><p>Ride-hailing giant Lyft rose more than 6%, Q2 revenue rose 30% year-on-year to $991 million, and the number of active passengers increased 16% year-on-year to 19.9 million, the highest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Cloudflare rose 14%, Q2 revenue increased 54% year-on-year to $235 million, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $968 million-972 million, exceeding expectations.</p><p>Beyond Meat rose 1.78%, Q2 net loss expanded nearly four times year-on-year to $971.3 billion, and lowered its full-year revenue to $470 million-$520 million.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>It fell by more than 3%, and recorded a net loss of US$208 million in Q2, which was worse than expected, turning from profit to loss year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Down 0.88%, Amazon will acquire iRobot in cash at a price of $61 per share.</p><p>Western Digital fell by more than 8%, with its Q2 revenue of $4.528 billion and net profit of $301 million, both of which fell short of market expectations.</p><p>AMC Cinema fell by more than 10%, Q2 revenue of $1.166 billion was slightly less than expected, and the company plans to issue about 517 million shares of preferred shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a>It plunged more than 16% after announcing another delay of commercial flight services in space until the second quarter of 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193372540","content_text":"8月5日周五，道琼斯指数开盘下跌215.87点，跌幅0.66%，报32510.95点；标普500指数开盘下跌40.79点，跌幅0.98%，报4111.15点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌160.68点，跌幅1.26%，报12559.90点。阿里巴巴跌3%，阿里周四公布一季度财报，营收超过预期，当日涨1.79%。“妖股”尚乘数科高开涨超12%，周四跌超27%。特斯拉跌近2%。特斯拉股东大会批准1股拆3股的拆股交易方案。马斯克称未来仍将根据现金流考虑进行股票回购。“美版饿了么”DoorDash涨超4%，Q2营收同比增长30%至16亿美元，订单总价值(GOV)同比增长25%至131亿美元超预期。网约车巨头Lyft涨超6%，Q2营收同比增长30%至9.91亿美元，活跃乘客数同比增加16%达1990万，创新冠疫情开始以来的最高水平。Cloudflare涨14%，Q2营收同比增长54%至2.35亿美元，并上调全年营收指引至9.68亿-9.72亿美元超预期。Beyond Meat涨1.78%，Q2净亏损同比扩大近4倍至9713亿美元，并下调全年营收至4.7亿-5.2亿美元。Block跌超3%，Q2录得净亏损2.08亿美元差于预期，同比转盈为亏。亚马逊跌0.88%，亚马逊将以61美元/每股的价格现金收购iRobot公司。西部数据跌超8%，其Q2营收45.28亿美元，净利润3.01亿美元，均不达市场预期。AMC院线跌超10%，Q2营收11.66亿美元略不及预期，公司计划发行约5.17亿股优先股。维珍银河大跌超16%，此前宣布再次推迟太空商业飞行服务至2023年第二季度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906026575,"gmtCreate":1659460353201,"gmtModify":1705980559564,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HKD\">$尚乘数科(HKD)$</a>mark","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HKD\">$尚乘数科(HKD)$</a>mark","text":"$尚乘数科(HKD)$mark","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d8e4b40419a6e519fb4de17d0367b16","width":"1125","height":"3738"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906026575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127587835,"gmtCreate":1624856974427,"gmtModify":1703846344042,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？？？？","listText":"？？？？","text":"？？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127587835","repostId":"1115271775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115271775","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624849752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115271775?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"HKEx will resume trading at 1:30 p.m.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115271775","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。\n根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:","content":"<p>On June 28th, the Hong Kong Observatory reissued a red rainstorm warning signal (previously a black rainstorm warning signal), and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will resume market trading at 1:30 pm.</p><p>According to the regulations of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, if the black rainstorm warning is lifted from 11:00 to 11:30, the market will open at 1:30 pm; The black rainstorm warning will be lifted from 11:30 to 12:00, and the market will open at 2:00 pm; After 12:00, the black rainstorm warning is lifted, and the market will be closed all day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HKEx will resume trading at 1:30 p.m.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHKEx will resume trading at 1:30 p.m.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 11:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 28th, the Hong Kong Observatory reissued a red rainstorm warning signal (previously a black rainstorm warning signal), and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will resume market trading at 1:30 pm.</p><p>According to the regulations of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, if the black rainstorm warning is lifted from 11:00 to 11:30, the market will open at 1:30 pm; The black rainstorm warning will be lifted from 11:30 to 12:00, and the market will open at 2:00 pm; After 12:00, the black rainstorm warning is lifted, and the market will be closed all day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1244793084c6388467f46fc7c39784b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115271775","content_text":"6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。\n根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:00解除黑色暴雨警告，下午2:00开市；12:00后解除黑色暴雨警告，则全天休市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117129205,"gmtCreate":1623123884507,"gmtModify":1704196573410,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117129205","repostId":"2141253289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104022344,"gmtCreate":1620346467988,"gmtModify":1704342233480,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a>?","text":"$Square, Inc(SQ)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104022344","repostId":"2133766175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133766175","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620332100,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2133766175?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 04:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Square turns around year-over-year on $5.057 billion in Q1 revenue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133766175","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月7日，移动支付公司$Square$美股盘后公布了2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Square第一季度总净营收为50.57亿美元，与去年同期的13.81亿美元相比增长266%；不计入比特币带来的收入，Square第一季度总净营收为15.5亿美元，与去年同期相比增长44%；Square第一季度净利润为3900万美元，相比之下去年同期的净亏损为1.06亿美元。Square第一季度营收和调整后每股收益均超出华尔街分析师预期，推动其盘后股价上涨超2%。Square第一季度调整后EBITDA为2.36亿美元，去年同期为900万美元。","content":"<p>On May 7, Mobile Payments Inc.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>U.S. stocks reported first-quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $5.057 billion, an increase of 266% compared with $1.381 billion in the same period last year; Excluding revenue from Bitcoin, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $1.55 billion, an increase of 44% compared with the same period last year; Square posted net income of $39 million in the first quarter, compared to a net loss of $106 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, pushing its shares up more than 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/501138f7d493a32169d49cd04b543fb7\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Results:</b></p><p>In the fiscal quarter ended March 31, Square posted net income of $39 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.08, which was better than the same period last year. In the first quarter of fiscal 2020, Square had a net loss of $106 million or a diluted loss per share of $0.24. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Square's adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.41 in the first quarter, compared to an adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.02 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that beat analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 36 analysts had expected Square to earn $0.16 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $5.057 billion, up 266% compared to $1.381 billion in the year-ago quarter, beating analyst expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, 31 analysts had expected Square's first-quarter revenue to reach $3.36 billion on average. Excluding revenue brought in by Bitcoin, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $1.55 billion, up 44% compared to the same period last year. Square's first-quarter gross profit was $964 million, up 79% compared to $539 million a year earlier.</p><p>Square's adjusted EBITDA, or profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $236 million in the first quarter, compared to $9 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's first-quarter operating profit was $67.7 million, compared to an operating loss of $90.3 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's total operating expenses were $896 million in the first quarter, compared to $629 million in the year-ago quarter. Among them, product development expenditure was $309 million, compared to $195 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $349 million, compared to $195 million in the year-ago quarter; General and administrative expenses were $196 million, compared to $129 million in the same period last year; Trading and loan losses of $20.4 million compared to $109 million in the year-ago quarter; The impairment loss of Bitcoin was US$19.9 million, compared with no such expense in the same period last year; Amortization expense of customer assets received was $1.46 million, compared to $0.9 million in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Results by business segment:</b></p><p>By business segment, Square's transaction-based revenue was $960 million in the first quarter, up 27% from $758 million in the same period last year; Gross profit for the segment was $435 million, up 49% compared to the same period last year. Square processed total payment transaction volume (GPV) of $33.1 billion in the first quarter, up 29% compared to the same period last year. Square's transaction-based gross profit as a percentage of GPV in the first quarter was 1.31%, up 17 basis points compared to the same period last year and up 8 basis points compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>Square's subscription and service-based revenue was $558 million in the first quarter, up 88% compared to $296 million in the year-ago quarter; Gross profit for the segment was $469 million, up 84% compared to the same period last year.</p><p>Square's hardware revenue was $28.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $20.7 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's Bitcoin revenue in the first quarter was $3.511 billion, compared to $306 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><b>Balance sheet information:</b></p><p>At the end of the first quarter of 2021, Square held $4.8 billion in available liquidity, including $4.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments in tradable debt securities, and $500 million in funds available from revolving credit facilities.</p><p>In February 2021, Square invested $170 million in Bitcoin due to the company's belief that cryptocurrency is a tool for economic empowerment, which is consistent with the company's goals. Square said the company wants to hold on to the investment for the long term.</p><p>In April 2021, Square completed the acquisition of a significant majority stake in TIDAL, a global music and entertainment platform, for a total consideration of $302 million.</p><p><b>Performance Outlook:</b></p><p>Looking ahead to the remainder of 2021, Square said in its earnings release that the company believes the two-year CAGR from 2019 to 2021 will help reflect potential gross profit trends across each ecosystem. In the second quarter of 2021, as the U.S. government began spending in April 2020, the company's Cash App is expected to achieve strong gross profit growth of 167% year-over-year. On the other hand, given that significant regional restrictions in Q2 2020 impacted in-person activities, resulting in a 9% year-over-year drop in gross profit for the quarter, in Q2 2021, the growth in gross profit for sellers is expected to benefit.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square turns around year-over-year on $5.057 billion in Q1 revenue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare turns around year-over-year on $5.057 billion in Q1 revenue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 04:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 7, Mobile Payments Inc.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>U.S. stocks reported first-quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $5.057 billion, an increase of 266% compared with $1.381 billion in the same period last year; Excluding revenue from Bitcoin, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $1.55 billion, an increase of 44% compared with the same period last year; Square posted net income of $39 million in the first quarter, compared to a net loss of $106 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, pushing its shares up more than 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/501138f7d493a32169d49cd04b543fb7\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Results:</b></p><p>In the fiscal quarter ended March 31, Square posted net income of $39 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.08, which was better than the same period last year. In the first quarter of fiscal 2020, Square had a net loss of $106 million or a diluted loss per share of $0.24. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Square's adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.41 in the first quarter, compared to an adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.02 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that beat analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 36 analysts had expected Square to earn $0.16 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $5.057 billion, up 266% compared to $1.381 billion in the year-ago quarter, beating analyst expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, 31 analysts had expected Square's first-quarter revenue to reach $3.36 billion on average. Excluding revenue brought in by Bitcoin, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $1.55 billion, up 44% compared to the same period last year. Square's first-quarter gross profit was $964 million, up 79% compared to $539 million a year earlier.</p><p>Square's adjusted EBITDA, or profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $236 million in the first quarter, compared to $9 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's first-quarter operating profit was $67.7 million, compared to an operating loss of $90.3 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's total operating expenses were $896 million in the first quarter, compared to $629 million in the year-ago quarter. Among them, product development expenditure was $309 million, compared to $195 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $349 million, compared to $195 million in the year-ago quarter; General and administrative expenses were $196 million, compared to $129 million in the same period last year; Trading and loan losses of $20.4 million compared to $109 million in the year-ago quarter; The impairment loss of Bitcoin was US$19.9 million, compared with no such expense in the same period last year; Amortization expense of customer assets received was $1.46 million, compared to $0.9 million in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Results by business segment:</b></p><p>By business segment, Square's transaction-based revenue was $960 million in the first quarter, up 27% from $758 million in the same period last year; Gross profit for the segment was $435 million, up 49% compared to the same period last year. Square processed total payment transaction volume (GPV) of $33.1 billion in the first quarter, up 29% compared to the same period last year. Square's transaction-based gross profit as a percentage of GPV in the first quarter was 1.31%, up 17 basis points compared to the same period last year and up 8 basis points compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>Square's subscription and service-based revenue was $558 million in the first quarter, up 88% compared to $296 million in the year-ago quarter; Gross profit for the segment was $469 million, up 84% compared to the same period last year.</p><p>Square's hardware revenue was $28.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $20.7 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's Bitcoin revenue in the first quarter was $3.511 billion, compared to $306 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><b>Balance sheet information:</b></p><p>At the end of the first quarter of 2021, Square held $4.8 billion in available liquidity, including $4.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments in tradable debt securities, and $500 million in funds available from revolving credit facilities.</p><p>In February 2021, Square invested $170 million in Bitcoin due to the company's belief that cryptocurrency is a tool for economic empowerment, which is consistent with the company's goals. Square said the company wants to hold on to the investment for the long term.</p><p>In April 2021, Square completed the acquisition of a significant majority stake in TIDAL, a global music and entertainment platform, for a total consideration of $302 million.</p><p><b>Performance Outlook:</b></p><p>Looking ahead to the remainder of 2021, Square said in its earnings release that the company believes the two-year CAGR from 2019 to 2021 will help reflect potential gross profit trends across each ecosystem. In the second quarter of 2021, as the U.S. government began spending in April 2020, the company's Cash App is expected to achieve strong gross profit growth of 167% year-over-year. On the other hand, given that significant regional restrictions in Q2 2020 impacted in-person activities, resulting in a 9% year-over-year drop in gross profit for the quarter, in Q2 2021, the growth in gross profit for sellers is expected to benefit.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26431c0734b181fb6bbdfb2d00bdf07c","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133766175","content_text":"5月7日，移动支付公司Square美股盘后公布了2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Square第一季度总净营收为50.57亿美元，与去年同期的13.81亿美元相比增长266%；不计入比特币带来的收入，Square第一季度总净营收为15.5亿美元，与去年同期相比增长44%；Square第一季度净利润为3900万美元，相比之下去年同期的净亏损为1.06亿美元。Square第一季度营收和调整后每股收益均超出华尔街分析师预期，推动其盘后股价上涨超2%。主要业绩：在截至3月31日的这一财季，Square的净利润为3900万美元，每股摊薄收益为0.08美元，这一业绩好于去年同期。在2020财年第一季度，Square的净亏损为1.06亿美元，每股摊薄亏损为0.24美元。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Square第一季度调整后每股摊薄收益为0.41美元，相比之下去年同期的调整后每股摊薄亏损为0.02美元，这一业绩超出分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，36名分析师此前平均预期Square第一季度每股收益将达0.16美元。Square第一季度总净营收为50.57亿美元，与去年同期的13.81亿美元相比增长266%，超出分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，31名分析师此前平均预期Square第一季度营收将达33.6亿美元。不计入比特币带来的收入，Square第一季度总净营收为15.5亿美元，与去年同期相比增长44%。Square第一季度毛利润为9.64亿美元，与去年同期的5.39亿美元相比增长79%。Square第一季度调整后EBITDA（即未计入利息、税项、折旧及摊销的利润）为2.36亿美元，去年同期为900万美元。Square第一季度运营利润为6770万美元，相比之下去年同期的运营亏损为9030万美元。Square第一季度总运营支出为8.96亿美元，相比之下去年同期为6.29亿美元。其中，产品开发支出为3.09亿美元，相比之下去年同期为1.95亿美元；销售和营销支出为3.49亿美元，相比之下去年同期为1.95亿美元；总务和行政支出为1.96亿美元，相比之下去年同期为1.29亿美元；交易和贷款损失为2040万美元，相比之下去年同期为1.09亿美元；比特币减值损失为1990万美元，去年同期并无这项支出；已获得客户资产摊销支出为146万美元，相比之下去年同期为90万美元。按业务部门划分的业绩：按照业务部门划分，Square第一季度基于交易的营收为9.60亿美元，与去年同期的7.58亿美元相比增长27%；该部门的毛利润为4.35亿美元，与去年同期相比增长49%。Square在第一季度中处理的总支付交易量（GPV）为331亿美元，与去年同期相比增长29%。Square第一季度基于交易的毛利润在GPV中所占比例为1.31%，与去年同期相比上升17个基点，与上一季度相比上升8个基点。Square第一季度基于订阅和服务的营收为5.58亿美元，与去年同期的2.96亿美元相比增长88%；该部门的毛利润为4.69亿美元，与去年同期相比增长84%。Square第一季度硬件营收为2880万美元，相比之下去年同期为2070万美元。Square第一季度比特币营收为35.11亿美元，相比之下去年同期为3.06亿美元。资产负债表信息：截至2021年第一季度末，Square持有的可用流动资金为48亿美元，其中现金、现金等价物、限制性现金和可交易债务证券投资为43亿美元，可从循环信贷安排中提取的资金为5亿美元。2021年2月，Square在比特币上投资了1.7亿美元，原因是该公司相信加密货币是一种经济赋权的工具，而这与该公司的目标是一致的。Square表示，该公司希望长期持有这项投资。2021年4月，Square完成了对全球音乐和娱乐平台TIDAL的重大多数股权的收购交易，这项交易是总对价为3.02亿美元。业绩展望：Square在财报中表示，展望2021年剩余时间的前景，该公司相信，从2019年到2021年的两年复合年增长率将有助于反映每个生态系统的潜在毛利润趋势。在2021年第二季度，随着2020年4月美国政府开始支出，该公司旗下Cash App预计将可实现167%的毛利润同比强劲增长。另一方面，鉴于2020年第二季度中重大的地区限制措施影响了面对面的活动，导致该季度的毛利润同比下降9%，因此在2021年第二季度中，预计卖家毛利润的增长将会从中受益。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103920770,"gmtCreate":1619743911890,"gmtModify":1704271676328,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103920770","repostId":"2131343905","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347729284,"gmtCreate":1618532099848,"gmtModify":1704712243835,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark 16 May","listText":"Mark 16 May","text":"Mark 16 May","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347729284","repostId":"347819806","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":347819806,"gmtCreate":1618483125505,"gmtModify":1704711519756,"author":{"id":"3558937605407666","authorId":"3558937605407666","name":"小虎投资狮城","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71787abf8925cc00babc5c74c39de37a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558937605407666","idStr":"3558937605407666"},"themes":[],"title":"新加坡航空3月旅客運輸量跌了91%","htmlText":"[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;哇在海外疫情還是太嚴重了[難過]&nbsp;[難過]&nbsp;[難過]&nbsp;國營的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$</a>&nbsp;還是運營41個國際航線，但絕大多數國家不允許外國旅客入境或讓它們隔離[弱]&nbsp;[心碎]&nbsp;新加坡航空是全球最國際化航空公司之一（國家沒有任何國內航線）[驚嚇]&nbsp;在疫情期間公司還是面臨偉大的挑戰[汗顏]&nbsp;現在公司的航班都是這樣[白眼]&nbsp;公司剛披露今年3月時：總旅客運輸量爲10萬，與去年同期跌了91%[憤怒]&nbsp;公司的披露說它覺得從今年7月開始國際航空行業情況會好了一些。本月已經有一點點改善[笑哭]&nbsp;2月新加坡航空的旅客運輸量爲6.8萬以及1月旅客運輸量爲7.8萬。慢慢來吧[捂臉]&nbsp;新加坡航空盤後披露該數據，不知道明天市場會有什麼反應。大家記住了新加坡政府是公司的最大的股東以及去年公司籌資幾十億美金，現金餘額還是足夠了等很長時間。今年公司也又以發行可轉換債券籌資幾十億美金。公司5月16日要披露Q1財報。大家開始祈禱啊[保佑]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[暗中觀察]&nbsp;有任何問題關於新加坡股票，歡迎各位隨時找小虎投資獅城[得意]&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$維珍銀河(SPCE)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;哇在海外疫情還是太嚴重了[難過]&nbsp;[難過]&nbsp;[難過]&nbsp;國營的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$</a>&nbsp;還是運營41個國際航線，但絕大多數國家不允許外國旅客入境或讓它們隔離[弱]&nbsp;[心碎]&nbsp;新加坡航空是全球最國際化航空公司之一（國家沒有任何國內航線）[驚嚇]&nbsp;在疫情期間公司還是面臨偉大的挑戰[汗顏]&nbsp;現在公司的航班都是這樣[白眼]&nbsp;公司剛披露今年3月時：總旅客運輸量爲10萬，與去年同期跌了91%[憤怒]&nbsp;公司的披露說它覺得從今年7月開始國際航空行業情況會好了一些。本月已經有一點點改善[笑哭]&nbsp;2月新加坡航空的旅客運輸量爲6.8萬以及1月旅客運輸量爲7.8萬。慢慢來吧[捂臉]&nbsp;新加坡航空盤後披露該數據，不知道明天市場會有什麼反應。大家記住了新加坡政府是公司的最大的股東以及去年公司籌資幾十億美金，現金餘額還是足夠了等很長時間。今年公司也又以發行可轉換債券籌資幾十億美金。公司5月16日要披露Q1財報。大家開始祈禱啊[保佑]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[暗中觀察]&nbsp;有任何問題關於新加坡股票，歡迎各位隨時找小虎投資獅城[得意]&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$維珍銀河(SPCE)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"[噴血] [噴血] [噴血] 哇在海外疫情還是太嚴重了[難過] [難過] [難過] 國營的$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$ 還是運營41個國際航線，但絕大多數國家不允許外國旅客入境或讓它們隔離[弱] [心碎] 新加坡航空是全球最國際化航空公司之一（國家沒有任何國內航線）[驚嚇] 在疫情期間公司還是面臨偉大的挑戰[汗顏] 現在公司的航班都是這樣[白眼] 公司剛披露今年3月時：總旅客運輸量爲10萬，與去年同期跌了91%[憤怒] 公司的披露說它覺得從今年7月開始國際航空行業情況會好了一些。本月已經有一點點改善[笑哭] 2月新加坡航空的旅客運輸量爲6.8萬以及1月旅客運輸量爲7.8萬。慢慢來吧[捂臉] 新加坡航空盤後披露該數據，不知道明天市場會有什麼反應。大家記住了新加坡政府是公司的最大的股東以及去年公司籌資幾十億美金，現金餘額還是足夠了等很長時間。今年公司也又以發行可轉換債券籌資幾十億美金。公司5月16日要披露Q1財報。大家開始祈禱啊[保佑] [笑哭] [暗中觀察] 有任何問題關於新加坡股票，歡迎各位隨時找小虎投資獅城[得意] $波音(BA)$ $維珍銀河(SPCE)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0237198f6642a2800c250fc50661d9e7","width":"492","height":"400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347819806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"content":"GG$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD (C6L. SI) $","text":"GG$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD (C6L. SI) $","html":"GG$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD (C6L. SI) $"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321063096,"gmtCreate":1615385832415,"gmtModify":1704782003456,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321063096","repostId":"1132443819","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132443819","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615255748,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132443819?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-09 10:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Wood Sister\" Responds to the Plunge of Technology Stocks: The Bull Market is Expanding, and it is a Good Opportunity to Bargain-hunting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132443819","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Ark Investment Management创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood表示，她并不担心其基金近期的下跌。牛市只是在扩大范围。\n她说，随着时间的流逝，她的策略将获得回报，并且她会利用","content":"<p>Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investment Management, said she is not worried about her fund's recent decline. The bull market is just expanding its reach.</p><p>Her strategy will pay off over time, she said, and she will take advantage of the recent decline to profit.</p><p>\"Right now the bull market is expanding, and we think in a sense the bull market is strengthening, which is going to work in our favor in the long run,\" Wood said.</p><p>Wood's Ark Innovation Fund returned nearly 150% in 2020 and now has a net worth of more than $17 billion. However, the fund is down more than 11% this year amid recent weakness in tech stocks amid pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p>\"We're getting a huge opportunity\" in the sell-off, Wood said. \"In this sell-off, we're getting more and more optimistic about our portfolio,\" she added.</p><p>Wood cited the recent weakness in tech stocks as a buying opportunity. She revealed that she has bought heavily in the near future<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Teladoc,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Video and Palantir. In addition, the Ark Innovation Fund recently bought Square, Roku,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>And shares of Shopify.</p><p>Due to the rise in bond yields in recent weeks. In response, Wood said: \"We do think that the rate of interest rate rise is frightening. But the market has not changed much and the Fed has been supportive of the market as always.</p><p>\"The bull market is expanding to include value stocks or more cyclical sectors, which I think will be very good news for our long-term strategy,\" she said.</p><p>Ark Innovation Fund has fallen more than 30% from its most recent peak. On Monday, the ETF closed down 5.8%.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Wood Sister\" Responds to the Plunge of Technology Stocks: The Bull Market is Expanding, and it is a Good Opportunity to Bargain-hunting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Wood Sister\" Responds to the Plunge of Technology Stocks: The Bull Market is Expanding, and it is a Good Opportunity to Bargain-hunting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 10:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investment Management, said she is not worried about her fund's recent decline. The bull market is just expanding its reach.</p><p>Her strategy will pay off over time, she said, and she will take advantage of the recent decline to profit.</p><p>\"Right now the bull market is expanding, and we think in a sense the bull market is strengthening, which is going to work in our favor in the long run,\" Wood said.</p><p>Wood's Ark Innovation Fund returned nearly 150% in 2020 and now has a net worth of more than $17 billion. However, the fund is down more than 11% this year amid recent weakness in tech stocks amid pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p>\"We're getting a huge opportunity\" in the sell-off, Wood said. \"In this sell-off, we're getting more and more optimistic about our portfolio,\" she added.</p><p>Wood cited the recent weakness in tech stocks as a buying opportunity. She revealed that she has bought heavily in the near future<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Teladoc,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Video and Palantir. In addition, the Ark Innovation Fund recently bought Square, Roku,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>And shares of Shopify.</p><p>Due to the rise in bond yields in recent weeks. In response, Wood said: \"We do think that the rate of interest rate rise is frightening. But the market has not changed much and the Fed has been supportive of the market as always.</p><p>\"The bull market is expanding to include value stocks or more cyclical sectors, which I think will be very good news for our long-term strategy,\" she said.</p><p>Ark Innovation Fund has fallen more than 30% from its most recent peak. On Monday, the ETF closed down 5.8%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622890\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc6264fca4424975bd73bf84005bdc46","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","GOOG":"谷歌","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622890","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1132443819","content_text":"Ark Investment Management创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood表示，她并不担心其基金近期的下跌。牛市只是在扩大范围。\n她说，随着时间的流逝，她的策略将获得回报，并且她会利用近期的下跌来获利。\nWood说：“目前牛市正在扩大，我们认为从某种意义上说，牛市正在加强，从长远来看，这将对我们有利。”\nWood旗下的的Ark创新基金在2020年回报近150％，目前拥有超过170亿美元的净资产。然而，由于利率上涨的压力，最近科技股疲软，今年该基金下跌了11％以上。\nWood说，在抛售中“我们正在获得巨大的机会”。她补充说：“在这次抛售中，我们对我们的投资组合越来越乐观。”\nWood将最近科技股的弱势作为买入的机会。她透露，她在近期大量买入特斯拉，Teladoc，Zoom Video和Palantir。此外，Ark创新基金最近还买入了Square，Roku，Zillow和Shopify的股份。\n由于最近几周债券收益率上升。对此，Wood表示：“我们确实认为利率上扬的速度使人们感到恐惧。但市场的变化不大，美联储一如既往的支持市场。\n她说：“牛市正在扩大，以纳入价值股或更多的周期性部门，我认为这对于我们的长期战略将是一个非常好的消息。”\nArk创新基金离最近的最高点已经跌超30％。周一，该ETF收盘下跌5.8％。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320447089,"gmtCreate":1615171806041,"gmtModify":1704779076120,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?️","listText":"?️","text":"?️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320447089","repostId":"2117656396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117656396","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615158397,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117656396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-08 07:06","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Preview this week: The National Two Sessions are closed! U.S. 1.9 trillion stimulus endgame","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117656396","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"接下来的一周，主要关注美国2月CPI数据、加拿大央行利率决议、欧洲央行利率决议和美国3月密歇根大学消...","content":"<p>Abstract: This week, we pay attention to China's annual CPI rate in February, the monthly CPI rate after seasonal adjustment in the United States in February, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision. In terms of financial events, focus on the news related to the COVID-19 pandemic and Biden's $1.92 trillion stimulus plan; New shares: Chaoyun Group, a one-stop multi-category home care and personal care platform, and Coupang Inc, a South Korean e-commerce giant, were listed this week; Daylight saving time begins in North America from Sunday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5982c9b2db652d657e892e0609156b34\" tg-width=\"1386\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Monday (March 8) Keywords: US stimulus bill, Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8239d30f58a0ed4b0eae5e247afa3160\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Investors need to watch first on Monday<b>News related to the new COVID relief package in the United States</b>。</p><p>The latest news shows that the U.S. Senate passed Democrats' amendment on unemployment benefits that would provide $300 per week in aid through Sept. 6; But voted down Sen. Bernie Sanders' amendment to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.</p><p>Investors also need to pay attention to further news about the US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan over the weekend, which may have a certain impact on the foreign exchange market, gold and silver market and crude oil market.</p><p>In addition,<b>Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on outlook for the UK economy</b>Investors need to pay attention. The recent volatility of the pound, which was one of the best-performing G10 currencies of the year after the Bank of England suppressed negative interest rate expectations and the rapid pace of vaccination in the UK.</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a></b>Wait for companies to release earnings.</p><p><b>Tuesday (March 9) KEYWORDS: EIA Monthly Report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6319c3a3d6ac220de1424ffe55694b10\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On Tuesday, there were relatively few economic data, mainly paying attention to the revised value of Japan's fourth-quarter GDP released in Asian session and the revised value of the fourth-quarter GDP of the euro zone released in European session. It is expected that the impact will be limited.</p><p>In terms of events, we mainly focus on the monthly report of crude oil market published by EIA, focusing on the changes of crude oil inventory, output and supply. Although the influence of recent EIA monthly reports is relatively small, this monthly report will fully reflect the impact of the cold wave in the United States on the crude oil market, so it still needs attention.</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>U.S. stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">Daqo New Energy</a>Will report earnings today.</p><p><b>Wednesday (March 10) Keywords: China-US CPI data, Bank of Canada's interest rate decision</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598c81a362b05a59a4d496decf7975b\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic data,</b>Pay attention to the performance of China's CPI data in February. According to the data released on February 10th, due to the different Spring Festival months last year and this year, and the high comparative base in the same period last year caused by the wrong month, the national consumer price index CPI turned from rising to falling in January this year.</p><p>In addition, the CPI data of the United States in February will also be released on the same day. According to the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on February 10th, the CPI of the United States in January increased by 1.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 1.5%; It grew 0.3% month-over-month, unchanged from expectations, and maintained growth for the eighth consecutive month. If the data is better than expected, it will help the yields of the US dollar and US bonds soar, thus suppressing the price of gold and silver and the trend of non-US currencies; On the contrary, it is expected to provide short-term rising opportunities for gold and silver prices and non-US currencies.</p><p><b>On Wednesday afternoon, the fourth session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee closed. On Thursday afternoon, the fourth session of the 13th National People's Congress closed. The session will vote on the draft resolution on the government work report, the draft resolution on the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the outline of the long-term goals for 2035, etc. In accordance with previous practice, Premier * will meet with reporters and answer their questions after the closing meeting.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01516.HK\">Sunac Services</a>US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLDR\">Cloudera, Inc.</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinema</a></b>The company will announce its financial report today, which deserves special attention.</p><p><b>In respect of new shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06601\">Chaoyun Group</a>Will be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 10, the video game company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">Roblox Corporation</a>Listing.</p><p><b>Thursday (March 11th) Keywords: European Central Bank interest rate decision</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e6b4702f2a2b9532e1088fddd66d74\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9112d474a3305a5badcf2c4d5787a5\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The focus of the market on Thursday will be<b>The ECB Interest Rate Decision and the ECB President's Press Conference. The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave the current interest rate unchanged, but it is likely to accelerate the pace of bond purchases to curb the upward trend of yields.</b></p><p>Economists say the European Central Bank will speed up emergency asset purchases in case rising bond yields jeopardize growth prospects in the eurozone.</p><p>In addition, investors on Thursday need to keep an eye out for movements in weekly U.S. jobless claims and U.S. January JOLTs job openings. OPEC will also release a monthly report on the crude oil market, which investors need to pay attention to.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09698\">GDS-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00066\">MTR Corporation</a>and U.S. stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">DocuSign</a>When the company will announce its financial report today, investors should pay attention.</p><p><b>In respect of new shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01413\">Guanglian Engineering Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">Coupang</a>It will be available today.</p><p><b>Friday (March 12th) Keywords: US February PPI, consumer confidence index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42fa220ef3ab509f757d150bbd46504e\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Friday to watch<b>U.S. February PPI Annual Rate Data</b>Canada's employment data in February and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in March.</p><p>At present, due to the recent rise in most commodities,<b>The market is very optimistic about the U.S. core PPI in February, up 2.6% year-over-year, and if it meets expectations, it will be the highest level since 2019.</b></p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>The largest private high school education provider in western China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FHS\">First High School Education Group</a>Available Friday.</p><p>On the exchange side, from Sunday, daylight saving time will be implemented in North America, specifically, the clock will be moved forward by one hour at 02:00 EST, and it will end on November 7, 2021 (02:00 EST); U.S. and Canadian financial markets will trade an hour earlier than winter time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview this week: The National Two Sessions are closed! U.S. 1.9 trillion stimulus endgame</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview this week: The National Two Sessions are closed! U.S. 1.9 trillion stimulus endgame\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-08 07:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: This week, we pay attention to China's annual CPI rate in February, the monthly CPI rate after seasonal adjustment in the United States in February, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision. In terms of financial events, focus on the news related to the COVID-19 pandemic and Biden's $1.92 trillion stimulus plan; New shares: Chaoyun Group, a one-stop multi-category home care and personal care platform, and Coupang Inc, a South Korean e-commerce giant, were listed this week; Daylight saving time begins in North America from Sunday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5982c9b2db652d657e892e0609156b34\" tg-width=\"1386\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Monday (March 8) Keywords: US stimulus bill, Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8239d30f58a0ed4b0eae5e247afa3160\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Investors need to watch first on Monday<b>News related to the new COVID relief package in the United States</b>。</p><p>The latest news shows that the U.S. Senate passed Democrats' amendment on unemployment benefits that would provide $300 per week in aid through Sept. 6; But voted down Sen. Bernie Sanders' amendment to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.</p><p>Investors also need to pay attention to further news about the US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan over the weekend, which may have a certain impact on the foreign exchange market, gold and silver market and crude oil market.</p><p>In addition,<b>Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on outlook for the UK economy</b>Investors need to pay attention. The recent volatility of the pound, which was one of the best-performing G10 currencies of the year after the Bank of England suppressed negative interest rate expectations and the rapid pace of vaccination in the UK.</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a></b>Wait for companies to release earnings.</p><p><b>Tuesday (March 9) KEYWORDS: EIA Monthly Report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6319c3a3d6ac220de1424ffe55694b10\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On Tuesday, there were relatively few economic data, mainly paying attention to the revised value of Japan's fourth-quarter GDP released in Asian session and the revised value of the fourth-quarter GDP of the euro zone released in European session. It is expected that the impact will be limited.</p><p>In terms of events, we mainly focus on the monthly report of crude oil market published by EIA, focusing on the changes of crude oil inventory, output and supply. Although the influence of recent EIA monthly reports is relatively small, this monthly report will fully reflect the impact of the cold wave in the United States on the crude oil market, so it still needs attention.</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>U.S. stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">Daqo New Energy</a>Will report earnings today.</p><p><b>Wednesday (March 10) Keywords: China-US CPI data, Bank of Canada's interest rate decision</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598c81a362b05a59a4d496decf7975b\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic data,</b>Pay attention to the performance of China's CPI data in February. According to the data released on February 10th, due to the different Spring Festival months last year and this year, and the high comparative base in the same period last year caused by the wrong month, the national consumer price index CPI turned from rising to falling in January this year.</p><p>In addition, the CPI data of the United States in February will also be released on the same day. According to the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on February 10th, the CPI of the United States in January increased by 1.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 1.5%; It grew 0.3% month-over-month, unchanged from expectations, and maintained growth for the eighth consecutive month. If the data is better than expected, it will help the yields of the US dollar and US bonds soar, thus suppressing the price of gold and silver and the trend of non-US currencies; On the contrary, it is expected to provide short-term rising opportunities for gold and silver prices and non-US currencies.</p><p><b>On Wednesday afternoon, the fourth session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee closed. On Thursday afternoon, the fourth session of the 13th National People's Congress closed. The session will vote on the draft resolution on the government work report, the draft resolution on the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the outline of the long-term goals for 2035, etc. In accordance with previous practice, Premier * will meet with reporters and answer their questions after the closing meeting.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01516.HK\">Sunac Services</a>US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLDR\">Cloudera, Inc.</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinema</a></b>The company will announce its financial report today, which deserves special attention.</p><p><b>In respect of new shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06601\">Chaoyun Group</a>Will be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 10, the video game company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">Roblox Corporation</a>Listing.</p><p><b>Thursday (March 11th) Keywords: European Central Bank interest rate decision</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e6b4702f2a2b9532e1088fddd66d74\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9112d474a3305a5badcf2c4d5787a5\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The focus of the market on Thursday will be<b>The ECB Interest Rate Decision and the ECB President's Press Conference. The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave the current interest rate unchanged, but it is likely to accelerate the pace of bond purchases to curb the upward trend of yields.</b></p><p>Economists say the European Central Bank will speed up emergency asset purchases in case rising bond yields jeopardize growth prospects in the eurozone.</p><p>In addition, investors on Thursday need to keep an eye out for movements in weekly U.S. jobless claims and U.S. January JOLTs job openings. OPEC will also release a monthly report on the crude oil market, which investors need to pay attention to.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09698\">GDS-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00066\">MTR Corporation</a>and U.S. stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">DocuSign</a>When the company will announce its financial report today, investors should pay attention.</p><p><b>In respect of new shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01413\">Guanglian Engineering Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">Coupang</a>It will be available today.</p><p><b>Friday (March 12th) Keywords: US February PPI, consumer confidence index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42fa220ef3ab509f757d150bbd46504e\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Friday to watch<b>U.S. February PPI Annual Rate Data</b>Canada's employment data in February and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in March.</p><p>At present, due to the recent rise in most commodities,<b>The market is very optimistic about the U.S. core PPI in February, up 2.6% year-over-year, and if it meets expectations, it will be the highest level since 2019.</b></p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>The largest private high school education provider in western China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FHS\">First High School Education Group</a>Available Friday.</p><p>On the exchange side, from Sunday, daylight saving time will be implemented in North America, specifically, the clock will be moved forward by one hour at 02:00 EST, and it will end on November 7, 2021 (02:00 EST); U.S. and Canadian financial markets will trade an hour earlier than winter time.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117656396","content_text":"摘要：本周关注中国2月份CPI年率、美国2月季调后CPI月率、欧洲央行利率决议等；财经事件方面，重点留意新冠疫情和拜登1.92万亿美元刺激计划的相关消息；新股方面：一站式多品类家居护理及个人护理平台朝云集团，韩国电商巨头Coupang Inc等新股本周上市；周日起北美地区开始实行夏令时。周一(3月8日)关键词：美国刺激法案、英国央行行长贝利讲话周一投资者首先需要关注美国新一轮新冠疫情救助方案的相关消息。最新消息显示，美国参议院通过了民主党人关于失业救济金的修正案，将提供每周300美元的援助至9月6日；但投票否决了参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)关于将最低工资标准提高到每小时15美元的修正案。投资者还需留意周末有关美国1.9万亿美元的刺激计划的进一步消息，对外汇市场、金银市场、原油市场都可能会有一定的影响。此外，英国央行行长贝利就英国经济前景发表讲话，投资者需要予以关注。近期英镑的波动较大，之前英国银行打压了负利率预期，而且英国疫苗接种速度较快，英镑是年内表现最佳的G10货币之一。财报方面，小鹏汽车、小牛电动、达达集团等公司将发布财报。周二(3月9日)关键词：EIA月报周二经济数据比较少，主要留意亚洲时段出炉的日本第四季度GDP修正值和欧洲时段出炉的欧元区第四季度GDP修正值，预计影响比较有限。事件方面，主要关注EIA公布原油市场月度报告，重点留意原油库存的变化、产量和供给的变化。尽管近几次EIA月报的影响力都比较小，但这次月报将能全面的反映美国寒潮对原油市场的影响，因而仍需予以关注。财报方面，美股大全新能源将于本日公布财报。周三(3月10日)关键词：中美CPI数据、加拿大央行利率决议经济数据方面，需留意中国2月份CPI数据的表现。2月10日公布的数据显示，由于去年、今年春节月份不同，受错月导致去年同期对比基数较高等因素影响，今年1月份全国居民消费价格指数CPI同比由涨转降。另外，美国2月CPI数据当日也将公布，根据美国劳工统计局2月10日公布的数据显示，美国1月CPI同比增长1.4%，小幅低于市场预期的1.5%；环比增长0.3%，持平于预期，连续第8个月维持增长。如果数据好于预期，将有助于美元和美债收益率飙升，进而打压金银价格和非美货币走势；反之，则有望给金银价格和非美货币提供短线上涨机会。周三下午，全国政协十三届四次会议闭幕。周四下午，第十三届全国人民代表大会第四次会议闭幕，会议将表决关于政府工作报告的决议草案、关于国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要的决议草案等。按照往年惯例，闭幕会后，国务院总理李克强将会见记者并答记者问。财报方面，港股融创服务，美股Cloudera, Inc.、甲骨文、AMC院线等公司将于本日公布财报，值得重点关注。新股方面，朝云集团将于3月10日正式在港交所挂牌交易，视频游戏公司Roblox Corporation上市。周四(3月11日)关键词：欧洲央行利率决议周四市场的焦点将是欧洲央行利率决议和欧洲央行行长的新闻发布会。市场普遍预计欧洲央行将维持当前利率不变，但有可能会加快购债步伐以遏制收益率上行。经济学家称，欧洲央行将加快紧急资产购买步伐，以防债券收益率上升危害到欧元区的经济增长前景。此外，周四投资者还需留意美国每周初请失业金人数的变动和美国1月JOLTs职位空缺。OPEC也将公布原油市场月度报告，投资者需要予以留意。财报方面，万国数据-SW、港铁公司，以及美股京东、DocuSign等公司将于本日公布财报，投资者需留意。新股方面，广联工程控股、Coupang本日将上市。周五(3月12日)关键词：美国2月PPI、消费者信心指数周五需要关注美国2月PPI年率数据、加拿大2月就业数据和美国3月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值。目前，由于近期多数大宗商品上涨，市场对美国2月核心PPI的预期非常乐观，为同比上涨2.6%，如果符合预期，将是2019年来最高水平。新股方面，中国西部最大民办高中教育提供商第一高中教育集团周五上市。交易所方面，从周日开始，北美地区开始实行夏令时，具体为美东时间02:00将时钟拨快一个小时，至2021年11月7日（美东时间02:00）终止；美国和加拿大金融市场交易时间将较冬令时提前一小时。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"CADmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"FXC":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365667292,"gmtCreate":1614736409816,"gmtModify":1704774598897,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365667292","repostId":"2116177516","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116177516","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614732450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116177516?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 08:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"General Motors' Cruise is rumored to acquire autonomous driving company Voyage","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116177516","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，通用汽车旗下自动驾驶汽车公司Cruise正在谈判收购自动驾驶技术初创公司Voyage。Voyage主要在佛罗里达的退休社区开展业务。报道称，两年前，投资者认为自动驾驶汽车可以相对较快地上路，但Cruise和Alphabet旗下自动驾驶部门Waymo在部署付费服务方面的延迟，导致一些投资者退出。据悉，为推进自动驾驶技术的商业化，Cruise不断拓展相关业务。","content":"<p>According to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Its self-driving car company Cruise is in talks to acquire autonomous technology startup Voyage. Voyage operates primarily in retirement communities in Florida. The acquisition of Voyage will help Cruise grow its driverless taxi business, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>According to the report, two years ago, investors thought autonomous cars could hit the road relatively quickly, but delays in deploying paid services by Cruise and Alphabet's self-driving arm Waymo led some investors to exit. Since then, self-driving cars<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It will either go out of business or be bought by a bigger company. For example, Starsky Robotics Inc. collapsed last year, and Zoox was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Acquisition.</p><p>It is reported that in order to promote the commercialization of autonomous driving technology, Cruise continues to expand related businesses. The company has partnered with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Established a distribution pilot project and hired in January this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Executive Gil West serves as chief operating officer.</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>General Motors' Cruise is rumored to acquire autonomous driving company Voyage</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGeneral Motors' Cruise is rumored to acquire autonomous driving company Voyage\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-03 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Its self-driving car company Cruise is in talks to acquire autonomous technology startup Voyage. Voyage operates primarily in retirement communities in Florida. The acquisition of Voyage will help Cruise grow its driverless taxi business, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>According to the report, two years ago, investors thought autonomous cars could hit the road relatively quickly, but delays in deploying paid services by Cruise and Alphabet's self-driving arm Waymo led some investors to exit. Since then, self-driving cars<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It will either go out of business or be bought by a bigger company. For example, Starsky Robotics Inc. collapsed last year, and Zoox was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Acquisition.</p><p>It is reported that in order to promote the commercialization of autonomous driving technology, Cruise continues to expand related businesses. The company has partnered with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Established a distribution pilot project and hired in January this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Executive Gil West serves as chief operating officer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/420619.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12340231b976722241abb465e8821663","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/420619.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116177516","content_text":"据知情人士透露，通用汽车旗下自动驾驶汽车公司Cruise正在谈判收购自动驾驶技术初创公司Voyage。Voyage主要在佛罗里达的退休社区开展业务。知情人士表示，收购Voyage将有助于Cruise发展无人驾驶出租车业务。\n报道称，两年前，投资者认为自动驾驶汽车可以相对较快地上路，但Cruise和Alphabet旗下自动驾驶部门Waymo在部署付费服务方面的延迟，导致一些投资者退出。自那以后，自动驾驶汽车创业公司要么倒闭，要么被更大的公司收购。例如，Starsky Robotics Inc.去年倒闭了，Zoox公司则被亚马逊收购。\n据悉，为推进自动驾驶技术的商业化，Cruise不断拓展相关业务。该公司已与沃尔玛建立了配送试点项目，并于今年1月聘请达美航空高管Gil West担任首席运营官。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368806595,"gmtCreate":1614304695817,"gmtModify":1704770399861,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark","listText":"Mark","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368806595","repostId":"1184986631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184986631","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1614299785,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184986631?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-26 08:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The last time US Treasury yields violently pulled up, what happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184986631","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"隔夜美债市场出现大幅波动，债券市场遭到抛售推动长端美债快速收高，10年美债利率不仅突破关键关口1.5%，更是在盘中一度创下1.61%的高点，为2020年疫情爆发以来的新高。债券的剧烈波动迅速跨资产蔓延","content":"<p>Overnight, the U.S. debt market fluctuated sharply, and the selling of the bond market pushed the long-term U.S. debt to close up rapidly. The 10-year U.S. debt interest rate not only broke through the key barrier of 1.5%, but also hit a high of 1.61% in the intraday session, a new high since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. The violent volatility of bonds quickly spread across assets to other assets, causing the U.S. stock market, especially growth stocks, to plummet, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3.5%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 falling 1.8% and 2.5% respectively. At the sector level, optional consumption, technology and communication services, which are high in valuation and sensitive to rising interest rates, have become the hardest hit areas, while safe-haven sectors such as public utilities, healthcare and banks benefiting from rising interest rates have experienced relatively little decline. At the same time, gold plummeted and the dollar rose.</p><p>The source of the sharp fluctuation of major asset prices is still the upward trend of bond interest rates, which is in the same vein as the recent market worries that the growth expectation is improving and the inflation is rising to push up interest rates, which may suppress the valuation and drag down the market. However, the rate of change has suddenly become violent, which is also worthy of our vigilance.<b>We have repeatedly suggested before that, in addition to absolute levels, the rate at which interest rates change is crucial, essentially reflecting the volatility of bond assets</b>。</p><p>Therefore, in view of the latest situation, we comment as follows for your reference.</p><p><b>1. Why do interest rates rise rapidly? The chain reaction after breaking through a critical barrier</b></p><p>In the general direction, the upward trend of the long-term interest rate of US debt is consistent with the recent improvement of the global overall epidemic situation, the acceleration of vaccination, and the gradual approach of a new round of 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the United States. At this point, the market has formed a sufficient consensus expectation, so it will not be repeated (\"After the 10-year US debt interest rate rose above 1.1%\", \"Spring Festival Inventory: Interest rate soared, oil price was overbought; The epidemic situation improved, and the stimulus was approaching\").</p><p>However, overnight rates suddenly accelerated upward,<b>We don't think we can rule out a ripple effect after bond interest rates break the key barrier and trigger some positions and derivatives anchored at this point, or even programmed trading orders</b>It is not a complete fundamental factor. After all, at present, the speculative position of the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt is still net long, and the sudden rise in interest rate will put it under pressure.<b>Therefore, this is also the reason why we suggest that we need to pay attention to breaking through the key barrier in the short term</b>(\"The Disturbance of Upward Rate: Lessons from 2018\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e74a112cb938257ccd8de4b5452adc7\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79604d78c8a870cacaddfd6086600977\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How fast do interest rates go up? Fluctuations close to 2x SD</b></p><p>We have repeatedly emphasize that that absolute level of interest rate is one aspect,<b>In a sense, the speed of interest rate upward is more critical</b>Because the interest rate rising too quickly means that the bond market will experience violent fluctuations, and this fluctuation will \"infect\" other assets across assets, which is very similar to the fluctuation caused by the rapid breakthrough of 2.8% in US Treasury yields in early February 2018.</p><p>So, how quickly do overnight bond rates move? If measured at the high of 1.61%, the volatility of 10-year Treasury bonds is close to 2 times the standard deviation of the past year, which is already higher than the \"alert level\" of 1.5 times the standard deviation of our upward signal of interest rates, and the highest in early 2018 is close to 2.5 times.<b>Generally speaking, from historical experience, above this threshold alert level usually brings disturbance to the market.</b>Against this backdrop, the implied volatility of bond futures has also risen to a high since the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af78ac184d4226ffcefd35c6ec05240\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ee1037e24f9be747042526f8088891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. The challenge of upward real interest rate: higher real financing cost is not conducive to gold and high valuation</b></p><p>In the process of this round of higher interest rates,<b>Another feature is that real interest rates are dominant, rather than inflation expectations as the market generally refers to</b>This is consistent with what we suggest. Compared with the early January low, the 10-year nominal US Treasury yields has risen by more than 45 basis points, while real interest rates have contributed nearly 43 basis points, and inflation expectations have been roughly flat. The recent trend of gold is a good evidence, because gold tends to benefit from the upward trend of interest rates dominated by inflation expectations (implied that the real interest rate is under pressure or downward).</p><p><b>Actual inflation moves are often confused with nominal interest rates minus TIPs Implicit inflation expectations (breakeven) of real interest rates. We expect the upward trend of interest rates to be mainly based on real interest rates</b>, mainly considering: a) the implied real growth and return on investment recovery; b) The long-term inflation expectation is close to the upper edge of the long-term range of 2.2~2.5% (in the long run, this upper edge is relatively stable), which reflects the expectation of higher inflation in the future in advance; c) The short-end and long-end inflation expectations have been inverted, indicating that short-term bonds have included more expectations of higher inflation, and this inversion cannot be sustained from historical experience.</p><p><b>The upward trend of real interest rate not only implies the increase of real rate of return after deducting price factors, but also means the marginal increase of real financing cost</b>(Although it is still obviously negative at present, with a 10-year term of-0.61%), then the implication of higher real interest rate for asset prices is that, on the one hand, it is not conducive to gold, and on the other hand, it will also bring greater pressure on the marginal high valuation part, especially the part with congested transactions, excessive floating profits and higher financing leverage since then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef52da1b01866eedd4a022a2f3b9a90d\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98620b61bab182ef4e00c8e4df83901\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. What may happen next? Bonds are oversold; Stock markets focus on ripple effects in the short term, but medium-term moves are determined by fundamentals</b></p><p>First of all, from the perspective of interest rate itself, after yesterday's sharp fluctuation, the 10-year U.S. bond has touched the first-stage target point of 1.5% given in our annual outlook published at the end of last year, \"Overseas Market Outlook in 2021: Epidemic Path, Replenishment and Tongyou\". As the long-term Treasury Bond has been obviously oversold,<b>If there is no further chain reaction due to factors such as programmed trading of bonds or position unwind, it is possible to stabilize at this level and wait for the next catalyst factor.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22327d09a37aff72e0d2f14bdc6b1004\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, for the stock market, the volatility and stock market volatility caused by the sudden rise in overnight US Treasury yields are very similar in form to the situation in early February 2018 after the U.S. debt quickly broke through 2.8% 10 years after the non-agricultural data greatly exceeded expectations. At that time, the volatility of bond interest rates was as high as 2.5 times the standard deviation.</p><p><b>From the historical experience at that time, after the bond interest rate broke through the key barrier in early February and caused volatility, the reason why the subsequent market volatility was further amplified and prolonged was not only limited to the higher interest rate itself, but triggered the volatility strategy and high leverage crowded trading triggered a series of chain reactions</b>。 As we analyzed in \"The Disturbance of Upward Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\", looking back, if the interest rate went up simply without a series of subsequent chain reactions, it may not have caused such a large turbulent period in February 2018 that lasted for more than a month. The specific process is as follows: on Monday, February 5th, the further plunge of U.S. stocks caused VIX to soar by 116% (the single-day change exceeded that during the epidemic in 2020). The previously abnormally \"crowded\" bearish volatility position needed to be quickly covered, which also caused the ETF products that were bearish on VIX to plummet by 93% on Tuesday, triggering the early redemption clause in advance and liquidated. Some investment strategies (VolatilityTargeting) that directly or indirectly peg to volatility, such as Risk Parity and CTA (managed futures), need to adjust their exposure to risky assets in the new volatility environment, which also brings selling pressure to the spot market. In addition, crowded trading and higher financing leverage have also increased selling pressure on individual investors. Financial market liquidity indicators have also generally shown signs of tightening as a result.</p><p>However, it still needs to be emphasized that from a long-term and medium-term perspective,<b>After short-term fluctuations, the fundamental support table of U.S. stocks can still rebound and reach a new high. The reason behind this lies in the support of tax reform to profit at the end of 2017; It wasn't until October, when interest rates continued to move higher and growth peaked, that the market peaked outright.</b>After nearly two months of consolidation and fluctuation from February to March, U.S. stocks bottomed out and rebounded from the beginning of April and reached a new high until the beginning of October, when interest rates broke through 3% and growth peaked, and started a new round of decline. Compared with other markets at that time, such as the Chinese market, the fundamental reason why U.S. stocks can rebound and reach a new high lies in the additional promotion of corporate profits brought by the tax reform in 2017. In fact, this is not available in his market, and when the fundamental space is exhausted, the market becomes unsustainable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1282bf6413c6035a41385061aa932393\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/914d16d6516ec728b7fcde7ec8190ce7\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a812d954989f1ecfed856942880c72bf\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, the enlightenment of the experience in 2018 is that rising interest rates are indeed prone to disturbance in the context of full mood, high valuation and crowded transactions, especially the growth stocks with high valuation.<b>Now that it has broken through the key barrier and caused volatility, then we need to pay attention to whether it will trigger some chain reactions of programmed trading or leveraged trading to prolong and amplify volatility. However, the market trend in the medium-term dimension still depends on fundamentals</b>If the positive trend of fundamentals is still established, then the market can still get rid of the volatility caused by interest rate disturbance until the fundamental trend begins to reverse.<b>Be aware that at some levels, the situation at the beginning of 2018 was not as good as it is now</b>For example, at the short end of the rate hike cycle, the interest rate is rising, the implied leverage of market financing is as high as three times, and the equity risk premium is lower than the current one.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1c82301f4e415993015990d008d501\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/398354a88b7b00bffde467e334e129d0\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Finally, it should be pointed out that although long-term interest rates are rising rapidly,<b>But the financial market liquidity metrics and credit spreads we track have not shown significant tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522eafda13659c967fb09fdf4b7c4ffc\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Author: Liu Gang, CICC, Source: Kevin Strategy Research, Original title \"Overseas Markets: The Challenge of China's Too Fast Upside\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The last time US Treasury yields violently pulled up, what happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe last time US Treasury yields violently pulled up, what happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-26 08:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Overnight, the U.S. debt market fluctuated sharply, and the selling of the bond market pushed the long-term U.S. debt to close up rapidly. The 10-year U.S. debt interest rate not only broke through the key barrier of 1.5%, but also hit a high of 1.61% in the intraday session, a new high since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. The violent volatility of bonds quickly spread across assets to other assets, causing the U.S. stock market, especially growth stocks, to plummet, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3.5%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 falling 1.8% and 2.5% respectively. At the sector level, optional consumption, technology and communication services, which are high in valuation and sensitive to rising interest rates, have become the hardest hit areas, while safe-haven sectors such as public utilities, healthcare and banks benefiting from rising interest rates have experienced relatively little decline. At the same time, gold plummeted and the dollar rose.</p><p>The source of the sharp fluctuation of major asset prices is still the upward trend of bond interest rates, which is in the same vein as the recent market worries that the growth expectation is improving and the inflation is rising to push up interest rates, which may suppress the valuation and drag down the market. However, the rate of change has suddenly become violent, which is also worthy of our vigilance.<b>We have repeatedly suggested before that, in addition to absolute levels, the rate at which interest rates change is crucial, essentially reflecting the volatility of bond assets</b>。</p><p>Therefore, in view of the latest situation, we comment as follows for your reference.</p><p><b>1. Why do interest rates rise rapidly? The chain reaction after breaking through a critical barrier</b></p><p>In the general direction, the upward trend of the long-term interest rate of US debt is consistent with the recent improvement of the global overall epidemic situation, the acceleration of vaccination, and the gradual approach of a new round of 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the United States. At this point, the market has formed a sufficient consensus expectation, so it will not be repeated (\"After the 10-year US debt interest rate rose above 1.1%\", \"Spring Festival Inventory: Interest rate soared, oil price was overbought; The epidemic situation improved, and the stimulus was approaching\").</p><p>However, overnight rates suddenly accelerated upward,<b>We don't think we can rule out a ripple effect after bond interest rates break the key barrier and trigger some positions and derivatives anchored at this point, or even programmed trading orders</b>It is not a complete fundamental factor. After all, at present, the speculative position of the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt is still net long, and the sudden rise in interest rate will put it under pressure.<b>Therefore, this is also the reason why we suggest that we need to pay attention to breaking through the key barrier in the short term</b>(\"The Disturbance of Upward Rate: Lessons from 2018\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e74a112cb938257ccd8de4b5452adc7\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79604d78c8a870cacaddfd6086600977\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How fast do interest rates go up? Fluctuations close to 2x SD</b></p><p>We have repeatedly emphasize that that absolute level of interest rate is one aspect,<b>In a sense, the speed of interest rate upward is more critical</b>Because the interest rate rising too quickly means that the bond market will experience violent fluctuations, and this fluctuation will \"infect\" other assets across assets, which is very similar to the fluctuation caused by the rapid breakthrough of 2.8% in US Treasury yields in early February 2018.</p><p>So, how quickly do overnight bond rates move? If measured at the high of 1.61%, the volatility of 10-year Treasury bonds is close to 2 times the standard deviation of the past year, which is already higher than the \"alert level\" of 1.5 times the standard deviation of our upward signal of interest rates, and the highest in early 2018 is close to 2.5 times.<b>Generally speaking, from historical experience, above this threshold alert level usually brings disturbance to the market.</b>Against this backdrop, the implied volatility of bond futures has also risen to a high since the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af78ac184d4226ffcefd35c6ec05240\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ee1037e24f9be747042526f8088891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. The challenge of upward real interest rate: higher real financing cost is not conducive to gold and high valuation</b></p><p>In the process of this round of higher interest rates,<b>Another feature is that real interest rates are dominant, rather than inflation expectations as the market generally refers to</b>This is consistent with what we suggest. Compared with the early January low, the 10-year nominal US Treasury yields has risen by more than 45 basis points, while real interest rates have contributed nearly 43 basis points, and inflation expectations have been roughly flat. The recent trend of gold is a good evidence, because gold tends to benefit from the upward trend of interest rates dominated by inflation expectations (implied that the real interest rate is under pressure or downward).</p><p><b>Actual inflation moves are often confused with nominal interest rates minus TIPs Implicit inflation expectations (breakeven) of real interest rates. We expect the upward trend of interest rates to be mainly based on real interest rates</b>, mainly considering: a) the implied real growth and return on investment recovery; b) The long-term inflation expectation is close to the upper edge of the long-term range of 2.2~2.5% (in the long run, this upper edge is relatively stable), which reflects the expectation of higher inflation in the future in advance; c) The short-end and long-end inflation expectations have been inverted, indicating that short-term bonds have included more expectations of higher inflation, and this inversion cannot be sustained from historical experience.</p><p><b>The upward trend of real interest rate not only implies the increase of real rate of return after deducting price factors, but also means the marginal increase of real financing cost</b>(Although it is still obviously negative at present, with a 10-year term of-0.61%), then the implication of higher real interest rate for asset prices is that, on the one hand, it is not conducive to gold, and on the other hand, it will also bring greater pressure on the marginal high valuation part, especially the part with congested transactions, excessive floating profits and higher financing leverage since then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef52da1b01866eedd4a022a2f3b9a90d\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98620b61bab182ef4e00c8e4df83901\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. What may happen next? Bonds are oversold; Stock markets focus on ripple effects in the short term, but medium-term moves are determined by fundamentals</b></p><p>First of all, from the perspective of interest rate itself, after yesterday's sharp fluctuation, the 10-year U.S. bond has touched the first-stage target point of 1.5% given in our annual outlook published at the end of last year, \"Overseas Market Outlook in 2021: Epidemic Path, Replenishment and Tongyou\". As the long-term Treasury Bond has been obviously oversold,<b>If there is no further chain reaction due to factors such as programmed trading of bonds or position unwind, it is possible to stabilize at this level and wait for the next catalyst factor.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22327d09a37aff72e0d2f14bdc6b1004\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, for the stock market, the volatility and stock market volatility caused by the sudden rise in overnight US Treasury yields are very similar in form to the situation in early February 2018 after the U.S. debt quickly broke through 2.8% 10 years after the non-agricultural data greatly exceeded expectations. At that time, the volatility of bond interest rates was as high as 2.5 times the standard deviation.</p><p><b>From the historical experience at that time, after the bond interest rate broke through the key barrier in early February and caused volatility, the reason why the subsequent market volatility was further amplified and prolonged was not only limited to the higher interest rate itself, but triggered the volatility strategy and high leverage crowded trading triggered a series of chain reactions</b>。 As we analyzed in \"The Disturbance of Upward Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\", looking back, if the interest rate went up simply without a series of subsequent chain reactions, it may not have caused such a large turbulent period in February 2018 that lasted for more than a month. The specific process is as follows: on Monday, February 5th, the further plunge of U.S. stocks caused VIX to soar by 116% (the single-day change exceeded that during the epidemic in 2020). The previously abnormally \"crowded\" bearish volatility position needed to be quickly covered, which also caused the ETF products that were bearish on VIX to plummet by 93% on Tuesday, triggering the early redemption clause in advance and liquidated. Some investment strategies (VolatilityTargeting) that directly or indirectly peg to volatility, such as Risk Parity and CTA (managed futures), need to adjust their exposure to risky assets in the new volatility environment, which also brings selling pressure to the spot market. In addition, crowded trading and higher financing leverage have also increased selling pressure on individual investors. Financial market liquidity indicators have also generally shown signs of tightening as a result.</p><p>However, it still needs to be emphasized that from a long-term and medium-term perspective,<b>After short-term fluctuations, the fundamental support table of U.S. stocks can still rebound and reach a new high. The reason behind this lies in the support of tax reform to profit at the end of 2017; It wasn't until October, when interest rates continued to move higher and growth peaked, that the market peaked outright.</b>After nearly two months of consolidation and fluctuation from February to March, U.S. stocks bottomed out and rebounded from the beginning of April and reached a new high until the beginning of October, when interest rates broke through 3% and growth peaked, and started a new round of decline. Compared with other markets at that time, such as the Chinese market, the fundamental reason why U.S. stocks can rebound and reach a new high lies in the additional promotion of corporate profits brought by the tax reform in 2017. In fact, this is not available in his market, and when the fundamental space is exhausted, the market becomes unsustainable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1282bf6413c6035a41385061aa932393\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/914d16d6516ec728b7fcde7ec8190ce7\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a812d954989f1ecfed856942880c72bf\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, the enlightenment of the experience in 2018 is that rising interest rates are indeed prone to disturbance in the context of full mood, high valuation and crowded transactions, especially the growth stocks with high valuation.<b>Now that it has broken through the key barrier and caused volatility, then we need to pay attention to whether it will trigger some chain reactions of programmed trading or leveraged trading to prolong and amplify volatility. However, the market trend in the medium-term dimension still depends on fundamentals</b>If the positive trend of fundamentals is still established, then the market can still get rid of the volatility caused by interest rate disturbance until the fundamental trend begins to reverse.<b>Be aware that at some levels, the situation at the beginning of 2018 was not as good as it is now</b>For example, at the short end of the rate hike cycle, the interest rate is rising, the implied leverage of market financing is as high as three times, and the equity risk premium is lower than the current one.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1c82301f4e415993015990d008d501\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/398354a88b7b00bffde467e334e129d0\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Finally, it should be pointed out that although long-term interest rates are rising rapidly,<b>But the financial market liquidity metrics and credit spreads we track have not shown significant tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522eafda13659c967fb09fdf4b7c4ffc\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Author: Liu Gang, CICC, Source: Kevin Strategy Research, Original title \"Overseas Markets: The Challenge of China's Too Fast Upside\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7789abffef4e8a7ef6093738b6ad06","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184986631","content_text":"隔夜美债市场出现大幅波动，债券市场遭到抛售推动长端美债快速收高，10年美债利率不仅突破关键关口1.5%，更是在盘中一度创下1.61%的高点，为2020年疫情爆发以来的新高。债券的剧烈波动迅速跨资产蔓延到其他资产，导致美股市场特别是成长股大跌，纳斯达克大跌3.5%，道琼斯和标普500指数分别下跌1.8%和2.5%。板块层面，估值偏高、对利率上行敏感的可选消费、科技、通信服务等成为重灾区，避险板块如公用事业、医疗保健、以及受益于利率上行的银行等跌幅相对较少。同时，黄金大跌，美元走高。主要资产价格的大幅波动的源头依然是债券利率上行，与近期市场担忧增长预期向好和通胀走高推升利率、进而可能压制估值拖累市场的担忧一脉相过程，只不过其变化速度一下子剧烈起来，这也值得我们警惕。我们此前多次提示过，除了绝对水平外，利率的变化速度也至关重要，其本质上反映了债券资产的波动。因此，针对当前最新的情况，我们点评如下，供大家参考。一、利率为何快速上行？突破关键关口后的连锁反应大方向上，美债长端利率的上行，与近期全球整体疫情改善、疫苗接种加速、美国新一轮1.9万亿财政刺激渐行渐近背景下，增长和通胀预期进一步向好的大方向一致，在这一点上市场已经形成较为充分的共识预计，因此不再赘述（《10年美债利率升破1.1%之后》、《春节盘点：利率骤升、油价超买；疫情改善，刺激渐近》）。不过，隔夜利率突然加速上行，我们认为不排除与债券利率突破关键关口后触发一些锚定在此点位的仓位和衍生品、甚至程序化交易指令后的连锁反应，而并非完全的基本面因素，毕竟目前来看，美债长端利率的投机性头寸依然为净多头，利率的突然上行会使其面临压力。因此，这也我们提示短期需要关注突破关键关口后的原因（《利率上行的扰动：来自2018年的经验》）。二、利率上行有多快？波动接近2倍标准差我们一再强调，利率绝对水平是一方面，在一定意义上，利率上行的速度更为关键，因为过快上行的利率意味着债券市场经历剧烈的波动，而这一波动又会跨资产的“传染”到其他资产，这一点与2018年2月初美债利率快速突破2.8%引发的波动极为相似。那么，隔夜债券利率的波动有多快呢？如果以1.61%的高点计，10年国债的波动率已经接近过去一年的2倍标准差，已经高于我们利率上行信号1.5倍标准差的“警戒水平”，2018年初最高接近2.5倍。一般而言，从历史经验看，高于这一阈值警戒水平通常会对市场带来扰动。在此背景下，债券期货隐含的波动率也升至疫情以来的高点。三、实际利率上行的挑战：真实融资成本走高不利于黄金和高估值部分在此轮利率走高的过程中，还有一个特点是以实际利率为主，而并非市场所泛指的通胀预期，这一点与我们提示的情形一致。相比1月初的低点，10年名义美债利率已经上行超过45个基点，而实际利率贡献了近43个基点，通胀预期则基本持平。黄金近期的走势就是一个很好的佐证，因为通胀预期为主的利率上行（隐含实际利率承压或下行），黄金往往会受益。实际的通胀走势与名义利率扣除TIPs实际利率隐含的通胀预期（breakeven）经常会被混淆。我们预计利率上行主要以实际利率为主，主要是考虑到：a）隐含的真实增长和投资回报率回升；b）长端通胀预期接近长期区间上沿2.2~2.5%（长期来看，这一上沿相对稳定），提前反应了未来通胀走高的预期；c）短端和长端的通胀预期已然倒挂，表明短期债券计入了更多通胀走高的预期，而这一倒挂从历史经验来看也不能持久。实际利率上行除了隐含扣除价格因素的实际回报率抬升外，也意味着真实的融资成本的边际走高（虽然目前依然明显为负，10年期-0.61%），那么实际利率走高对资产价格的含义是，一方面不利于黄金，另一方面也会对边际上高估值部分带来边际上更大的压力，特别是交易拥挤、浮盈过多、以及以来融资杠杆较高的部分。四、接下来可能会发生什么？债券超卖；股市短期关注连锁反应，但中期走势决定于基本面首先，从利率本身来看，经过昨天的大幅波动后，10年美债已经触及我们在去年底发表的年度展望《2021年海外市场展望：疫情径曲、补库通幽》中给出1.5%的第一阶段目标点位，由于长端国债已经明显超卖，如果不出现进一步因债券的程序化交易或仓位unwind等因素的连锁反应的话，有可能会在这个水平上稳一稳，等待下一个催化剂因素。其次，对于股市而言，隔夜美债利率骤升引发的波动率走高和股市波动，从形态上非常类似2018年2月初因非农数据大超预期后10年美债快速突破2.8%后的情形，当时债券利率的波动率高达2.5倍标准差。从当时历史经验看，在债券利率2月初突破关键关口并导致波动后，后续市场波动进一步被放大和延长的原因不仅限于利率走高本身，而是触发了波动率策略和高杠杆拥挤交易引发了一系列连锁反应。正如我们在《利率上行的扰动：来自2018年的经验》中分析的那样，后视来看，如果单纯的利率上行但没有后续的一系列连锁反应，可能也不至于造成2018年2月如此大幅且持续一个多月的动荡期。其具体过程为：2月5日周一，美股进一步大跌导致VIX骤升116%（单日变化幅度超过2020年疫情期间），此前异常“拥挤”的看空波动率头寸需要迅速回补，又使得看空VIX的ETF产品在周二大跌93%提前触发提前赎回条款而清盘，一些直接或间接盯住波动率的投资策略（VolatilityTargeting）如风险平价（Risk Parity）、CTA（管理期货）等需要在新的波动率环境下调整对风险资产的敞口也带来对现货市场的抛售压力。此外，拥挤交易和较高的融资杠杆也加大了个人投资者抛售压力。金融市场流动性指标也普遍因此出现收紧迹象。但是仍需要强调的是，拉长时间中期维度看，短期波动后，美股在基本面的支撑表依然能够反弹并再创新高，其背后的原因就在于2017年底税改对盈利的支撑；直到10月份利率继续走高且增长见顶后，市场才彻底见顶。在2月~3月经历了近2个月的盘整和波动后，美股从4月初见底反弹并再创新高，直到10月初在利率突破3%和增长见顶的双重压力下见顶，开启新一轮下跌。相比当时的其他市场比如中国市场，美股之所以还能够反弹并再创新高的根本原因在于2017年税改带来的对于企业盈利的额外推动，这一点其实他市场并不具备的，而当基本面的空间也被消耗殆尽后，市场便难以为继了。因此，2018年经验对于当下的启示是，利率走高在情绪饱满、估值偏高、交易拥挤的背景下的确容易带来扰动，特别是高估值的成长股部分，目前既然已经突破关键关口并引发波动，那么接下来我们需要关注是否会触发一些程序化交易或杠杆交易的连锁反应进而延长并放大波动，但是中期维度的市场走势还是取决于基本面，如果基本面的向好趋势依然确立，那么市场还是可以摆脱因利率扰动带来波动，直到基本面趋势也开始逆转。要知道在一些层面2018年初的情形还不如当前，例如处于加息周期短端利率抬升、市场融资盘隐含杠杆高达3倍、股权风险溢价较当前更低。最后，需要指出的是，虽然长端利率快速上行，但我们追踪的金融市场流动性指标和信用利差并未出现明显收紧。本文作者：中金公司刘刚，来源：Kevin策略研究，原文标题《海外市场：美债利率上行过快的挑战》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382844550,"gmtCreate":1613435734370,"gmtModify":1704880408007,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting","listText":"interesting","text":"interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382844550","repostId":"1176177637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176177637","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613535611,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176177637?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 12:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ali, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176177637","media":"36氪","summary":"过去的2020年，时代不可避免地被全球蔓延的新冠疫情标记和改变，在消费领域，这种改变尤为明显，反消费主义的讨论一时甚嚣尘上。全国社会消费品零售总额、消费者信心指数等数据无不暴露出市场大环境的不确定性。","content":"<p>In the past 2020, times were inevitably marked and changed by the global spread of COVID-19, and in the consumer sphere, this change was particularly pronounced, with anti-consumerism discussions rampant for a while. The data of total retail sales of consumer goods and consumer confidence index in China all expose the uncertainty of the market environment.</p><p>However, a series of cold data is far from sketching the whole picture of the consumption field in the post-epidemic era. In fact, destruction and reconstruction are happening simultaneously.</p><p>Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>A number of e-commerce platforms such as Meituan and Meituan were hit by the epidemic, but as soon as the horn of \"stimulating domestic demand\" sounded, it was still these giant companies who enjoyed dividends.</p><p>Not counting the huge Ali, Pinduoduo, Meituan and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>In the past year, the share price has increased by more than 100%, and the market value has exceeded 100 billion dollars, which is extremely rare in any field. On the premise that the penetration rate of online physical retail and life services in the whole market is only 20%, e-commerce platforms have proved that their growth space is still broad.</p><p>As we enter 2021, there is no sign that this market trend will be reversed in the short term, the policy environment of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption will not waver, and the digital penetration rate in all fields is also slowly but firmly increasing.</p><p>But we can see that the era of relying on huge volume to enjoy dividends is also changing. After the State Administration for Market Regulation issued three \"anti-monopoly\" tickets in a row, the era of Internet anti-monopoly officially opened in the second half of 2020.</p><p>More than one industry insider said that 2021 will be a 10-year turning point in China's Internet antitrust history. \"For giants, 2021 will be a year of injury.\" Fang Xingdong, founder of Internet Lab, said in an interview with the media that the era of laissez-faire has ended, and China's Internet has officially entered a new era of rebuilding norms and order, which is a historic turn.</p><p>To be sure, Ali and Meituan will suffer greater damage to their interests in this anti-monopoly curtain, while JD.COM and Pinduoduo at the other end will enjoy the power of policies and struggle to catch up. However, no one can be sure how strictly antitrust will be enforced and how broad it will be. For e-commerce platforms, instead of being afraid of uncertainty, it is better to seize the opportunity and consolidate their advantages in certain things.</p><p>The sinking market is still the fat favored by all e-commerce platforms. The \"shopping war\" launched in the middle of last year will undoubtedly become more intense in 2021. For the huge companies, this bears the major mission of the \"second growth curve\", and no one is willing to lose easily in this war of attrition;</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of younger consumption has become very obvious, and the post-90s and post-00s have gradually become the main consumers. The pursuit of beauty and quality of life runs through the younger generation. Specifically, a number of potential companies have been born in beauty, skin care and food and beverage categories, which will still promote the rise of market sentiment in disguise and benefit the e-commerce platform.</p><p>In the medium and long term, the growth rate of China's GDP and total social retail sales continues to slow down, the economy is in the downward range, and the growth rate of e-commerce industry will definitely slow down. The traffic is peaking and the increment is difficult to find. In 2021, e-commerce platforms will fight more in the same battlefield, which will become the main theme in the next few years.</p><p><b>How does Ali get out of internal and external difficulties?</b></p><p>Although the e-commerce market still maintains steady growth, for Ali, 2020 is a rare difficult period since its founding, and it has encountered an unprecedented prestige crisis.</p><p>Externally, the impact of the pandemic, Ant's suspension of IPO, tightening anti-monopoly supervision and increasingly severe competition; Inside, weak growth and scandals involving several senior executives have followed.</p><p>Nowadays, the impact of the epidemic can almost be turned over, and the crisis of ants has come to an end with the introduction of the split plan. However, it is still unknown how long anti-monopoly supervision will last. This factor will not only cause Ali's share price to fluctuate in the short term, but also cause obstacles to business development to some extent.</p><p>Forced by the situation, Ali publicly expressed his position on e-commerce for the first time. At the merchant conference held in January 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fubuki, vice president of the group, once said that he did not support \"choose one of the two\", which means that Ali will not explicitly limit the flow of merchants. After the \"choose one\" restriction is liberalized, it may cause the outflow of merchant resources in the short term, but in the long run, the choice of merchants still depends on the comprehensive competition dimensions of each platform such as traffic cost, supply chain and logistics services.</p><p>In addition to the challenges brought by force majeure factors, the pressure from external competition has only increased. Next, I'm afraid it will be difficult for Ali to concentrate on dealing with competitors in a certain field as before.</p><p>At home, the sinking price war between Ali and Pinduoduo is still deadlocked. Taobao special edition, which formed a combination boxing with Juhuasuan, played \"1 yuan special price\" and directly supplied by C2M factory, was pushed to the front of the stage, led by Wang Hai, the person in charge of 1688, obviously to give full play to the advantages of B-end. As of November 11, 2020, the annual active buyers of Taobao Special Edition have exceeded 100 million. After assisting Taobao drainage, the special edition may change its name and surname to deal with the sinking battle with a more independent attitude.</p><p>The core of the content e-commerce war with Tik Tok and Kuaishou is the competition for users' time, coupled with the fact that users' shopping habits are shifting from active search to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Recommendation, the handmade page has been changed since the end of last year. The promotion of the strategic position of \"guess you like\" and the appearance of \"shopping\" mean that it will be fully aligned with the intelligent recommendation mode of information flow in communities such as Tik Tok and Xiaohongshu. With Tang Xing, who is good at content and technology, taking full control of Taobao, this trend will become more and more obvious this year.</p><p>The growth of Internet users is peaking day by day, which is undoubtedly revealed in Ali, a \"middle-aged giant\". From the data point of view, both from the perspective of user growth and GMV growth rate, it shows that Ali is facing the dilemma of weak growth.</p><p>According to the 2020 Q3 financial report, the growth of Ali's monthly active users is nearly 10 million lower than the market estimate. Although the Q4 financial report shows that the net increase of monthly active users in a single quarter exceeded 21 million, and the growth rate picked up, this is largely brought by the double 11 promotion, and whether it can be retained depends on the performance of the next quarter. In addition, GMV (i.e. turnover) grew by only 19% year-on-year, the lowest quarter except for the pandemic; Taobao's live GMV in 2020 was 400 billion yuan, which was also lower than the internal expectation of 500 billion yuan-the impact of Tik Tok Kuaishou overweight live e-commerce on Taobao began to gradually appear.</p><p>To overcome the difficult problem and increase the user time, the content of strength is one solution, and finding the traffic depression that still needs to be mined is another.</p><p>This is also the underlying reason why community group buying has become a battlefield for giants. Surprisingly, in the bustle, Ali seems particularly low-key. Except for the \"4 billion US dollars investment\" of slow people, his performance in other aspects is completely behind: it is still inconclusive which business department operates the community group purchase, and the performance target is unclear.</p><p>Chairman Zhang Yong's remarks at the 2020 Q3 financial report meeting can reveal some information: \"The competition for community group buying is fierce, but the market is still very early, and Ali has the best conditions, which can attract customers later.\" At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu also said that Taobao shopping, a new business incubated by core e-commerce, will not take the form of subsidies for exchanging markets to achieve the growth of users and single quantities.</p><p>combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>The information obtained from people close to Ali can be interpreted as that, from Ali's perspective, this round of price war and grabbing position war in pursuit of scale is not worth investing too much. It is more important to do a good job in quality expansion, such as upgrading the back-end supply chain and performance.</p><p>Growth or profit has become a multiple-choice question that Ali needs to face again. At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu made it clear that profit has never been Ali's first priority, and he will still invest heavily in innovative businesses in the future, including e-commerce seed business and others. It is foreseeable that for a long time, Taobao shopping, Taobao live broadcast, Taobao special edition, etc. will all get a lot of financial support. In addition, Ali also needs to give up some existing businesses that are difficult to support.</p><p>When enterprises are in difficulties internally and externally, the stability of organization is particularly important. However, since the beginning of this year, several executives, including Jiang Fan, have reported peach news and corruption scandals, and the core e-commerce companies, which have not made big moves for several years, have undergone substantial organizational adjustments. Ali also began to take the initiative to reflect on the defects in the construction of organizational culture: changing the once high-profile communication strategy, hiding the rank, canceling the weekly newspaper, canceling the 361 performance appraisal, and changing KPI to OKR. Recently, Zhang Yong's speech on the intranet to reflect on Zhongtai was also regarded as a precursor to Ali's splitting of Zhongtai.</p><p>After putting down some baggage, the big ship of Ali may be able to operate more flexibly.</p><p><b>What is the winning coupon geometry of Pinduoduo community group buying battle?</b></p><p>At the beginning of the new year, Pinduoduo appeared in the public view as a \"sweatshop\", and social events such as \"sudden death of employees\" and \"rights protection of employees\" that endangered corporate values and reputation occurred one after another.</p><p>As a result, Pinduoduo shares have experienced some ups and downs in the short term, but confidence in capital markets remains strong. However, from the business point of view, Pinduoduo, who originally won the title of CCTV Spring Festival Gala red envelope interactive partner, was finally replaced, losing an important promotion opportunity for payment business and grocery shopping business.</p><p>Grocery shopping business is regarded by Pinduoduo as an important weapon for whether it can continue to achieve the growth of users and turnover. In the early days of the competition, Pinduoduo grabbed a large market share with low prices and influence at the terminal, but it is still a long way from winning.</p><p>The community group buying industry is also developing in a more mature direction. From the perspective of financial indicators, giants are shifting from pursuing order volume and turnover to attaching importance to gross profit margin, and Pinduoduo is one of the representatives. After subsidies are reduced, if we want to maintain strong user growth, the difficulties will naturally become greater, and it becomes urgent to improve supply chain capability and performance efficiency.</p><p>From the perspective of expansion, following the successful experience of Xingsheng Optimization and opening a large number of offline stores may be one of the next development directions. At present, it seems that Meituan is testing the direct operation mode, while Didi has chosen the faster joining mode. There is no related action yet to buy more groceries.</p><p>More than solving the problem of growth, Pinduoduo is also planning for longer-term development. For example, how to handle the relationship with big brands, to what extent can we implement the new brand plan, and whether we can solve the hidden dangers of logistics.</p><p>Pinduoduo's current traffic is so large that it is difficult for big brands not to be tempted, but the tearing between the two sides also occurs frequently. SK2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Big names have also personally ended up maintaining their price systems. Seeing that the cooperation with brands either stays in some commodities or can only be indirectly cooperated by dealers, it is always superficial. Pinduoduo can only hope to attract some users who favor big names through the low-price temptation of \"tens of billions of subsidies\", which is not a long-term solution. As a result, Pinduoduo has also come up with the idea of incubating brands, but at present, the new brand plan focusing on C2M mode is still not effective at present.</p><p>Since last year, Pinduoduo has made a great breakthrough in the field of logistics, and has built Jitu Express with the number of e-commerce pieces second only to Ali's. Although it is still impossible to prove whether there is a capital binding between Pinduoduo and Jitu, the rapid development of Jitu can provide more bargaining chips for Pinduoduo to get rid of Ali's logistics system led by rookie. This year's Double Eleven and other big promotions will continue to stage the situation that the rabbit encounters the encirclement and suppression of Ali Department logistics.</p><p>In any case, how to maintain the growth of turnover and users, and really retain the non-sinking crowd, is still the main theme of Pinduoduo this year.</p><p><b>The new story of JD.COM retail, can logistics digital be successfully listed?</b></p><p>At least from the first three quarters of 2020, JD.COM's performance is quite good. After getting rid of nearly a year's stagnant growth, JD.COM's share price increased by 140% last year, second only to Meituan among Internet giants with a market value of over 100 billion dollars. Thanks to the long-term construction of logistics, JD.COM has become one of the few enterprises to benefit from the epidemic.</p><p>FMCG has become the fastest growing category in JD.COM in the past year. In Q2 and Q3 of 2020, the sales revenue of daily necessities increased by more than 35% year-on-year. However, to support the further rise of the stock price, JD.COM still needs to find new stories, and the newly established Jingxi business group has high hopes.</p><p>After Meituan, Didi and Pinduoduo plunged into the grocery buying war in the middle of last year, JD.COM, which arrived late, hurriedly completed the structural adjustment in November, packaged and reorganized the new channel, Jingxi and the newly established community group buying business, and planned to fight to the death in the sinking market.</p><p>At the end of December, Jingxi Pinpin opened in 14 cities at the same time. Earlier, they joined hands with the leader of community group buying-Xingsheng Preferred, and made a surprising strategic investment of 700 million US dollars in the latter, which made JD.COM, which was not optimistic, instantly have a place in the competitive situation.</p><p>Another news that surprised the outside world is that Liu Qiangdong, who has disappeared from the public for a long time, led the Jingxi business group this time. Many insiders in JD.COM told 36Kr that Liu Qiangdong's willingness to return to the front line of business has increased sharply in the past few months. \"I have repeatedly asked about the specific business situation and consulted employees' suggestions on company management in JD.COM's internal forums\", which is exciting news for the secondary market.</p><p>In this community group buying war, JD.COM's only advantage may be the accumulation of logistics, but considering JD.COM's execution and success rate in innovative business in the past few years, it is uncertain whether it can stand out in this battle of sinking market.</p><p>At the end of 2020, JD Retail also made a series of personnel and structure adjustments, focusing on the integration of third-party POP platform business. For JD.COM, in order to achieve \"accelerated growth\" in the four core indicators of transaction volume, revenue, users and profits \"in 2021, POP category still cannot be ignored, especially in the case of tightening anti-monopoly supervision. JD.COM, which has been suppressed by\" choosing one \"for a long time, may be able to make up lessons in clothing and other categories through this anti-monopoly investigation.</p><p>However, for other JD.COM sub-groups, the past few months have not been good. JD.COM Digital became a joint victim of the suspension of Ant's IPO, and the road to listing was suspended. Chen Shengqiang, the former CEO of Digital Science, also turned behind the scenes. In order to comply with financial regulatory requirements, Digital has continuously integrated AI and cloud services to further enhance its technological attributes.</p><p>For several financial giants, perhaps going public is no longer the first choice at present. At least after the ant incident, no one will want to be the first \"crab eater\". At least in 2021, it may not happen.</p><p>The resignation of Wang Zhenhui, CEO of JD.COM Logistics, also surprised the outside world. According to market news, JD Logistics has selected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Leading the Hong Kong IPO, the company may be valued at about US$40 billion, and plans to go public in the second or third quarter of 2021.</p><p>The revenue of JD.COM Logistics has maintained a year-on-year growth of more than 50% for many quarters. Referring to the improvement of the overall valuation of JD.COM Group by the listing of JD.COM Health, the listing of JD.COM Logistics may push the market value of JD.COM to another level.</p><p><b>Meituan stock price or flying with innovative business losses</b></p><p>If the trend in 2019 is consistent, Meituan in 2020 is still the fastest-soaring giant among Chinese Internet companies, with its market value rising by 170% a year. After the anti-monopoly storm and the short fluctuation of the stock price, Meituan's share price at the beginning of 2021 was unbreakable, increasing by 43% in just 20 days, and its market value exceeded HK$2.3 trillion.</p><p>Getting rid of the impact of the epidemic, highly stable main business income, and the imagination brought to the market by innovative businesses such as community group buying, Meituan is still the local Internet company most favored by the secondary market. However, as summarized before, the current share price of Meituan contains a certain extent of ahead-of-schedule expectations of the market. Once the performance fluctuates, its share price sensitivity will be greatly enhanced, which requires Meituan to balance the relationship between innovative business investment and profit in the future.</p><p>Community group buying is undoubtedly the most concerned business of the US Mission at present. Since entering the game in July 2020, the US Mission has full of stamina. According to a number of community group buying practitioners, 36 Krypton revealed that in the first week of the new year, the national average daily order volume of Meituan has reached 20 million, becoming the first in the industry, and it has successively overtaken the daily order volume of Duoduo grocery buying in Wuhan and Jiangxi.</p><p>For the newly entered market, Meituan prefers to continue to rely on high-pressure subsidies to compete for the market. At present, in South China and Central China, the average price of Meituan prefers to buy food is far lower than that of Duoduo (about 4 or 5 pieces). In relatively mature markets, Meituan has not only paid attention to the single quantity and repurchase rate, but gross profit has also become a new assessment index in 2021.</p><p>Especially on the performance side, in the past few months, Meituan has continued to reduce costs through standardized management. A franchisee of Meituan Preferred Grid Warehouse in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai revealed to 36Kr that in order to optimize the operation flow of grid warehouse, Meituan will ask its grid warehouse to add cameras, monitor them in real time, digitize each process, and make refined adjustments through data operation; In addition, the US Mission prefers to send headquarters personnel to the station one after another to keep an eye on the operation process.</p><p>The latest news is that Meituan Preferred has planned to prepare the first batch of offline direct stores in Hangzhou. On the intranet of the US Mission, there are already recruitment posts for Hangzhou store staff. However, according to people familiar with the matter, \"the early stage is just an attempt, and it is uncertain whether it will be opened on a large scale in 2021.\"</p><p>In Q3 2020, Meituan lost 2.029 billion yuan in innovative business, an increase of 68.8% year-on-year. Considering that the community group buying business has now become a battlefield for military strategists, the US Mission may still need to burn money to build a moat, and it is urgent to maintain the profit level in its main business.</p><p>Fortunately, the main business of Meituan is stable enough, especially the take-out business, which has started from traffic to profit. In Q2 and Q3 2020, the operating profit of Meituan Food Delivery was 1.253 billion yuan and 768 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>However, the hidden worry is that the price of this profit is the continuous improvement of commissions and advertising business, and behind it is the squeeze of merchants. At the beginning of last year, Guangdong Catering Association jointly shouted to the US Mission, demanding a reduction in the commission ratio, which was the outbreak of conflicts intensified in the special market.</p><p>Under the anti-monopoly sentiment, forcing merchants to \"choose one of the two\" may affect Meituan's control over merchants in the future, and the resulting instability of commission and advertising revenue will also affect Meituan's profit prospects. However, from the current point of view, this impact is still minimal, and \"choose one\" still exists widely. Judging from the stock price, the secondary market has not shown excessive panic about the impact of antitrust on the US Mission.</p><p>Another business to look forward to is bike-sharing. For Meituan, this is the only innovative business with a single quantity of tens of millions, which is of great help to enhance the activity of Meituan Dianping App and realize cross-selling of various businesses. At the same time, the end of the bicycle track war also gave Meituan the opportunity to raise the unit price and run it as a normal business. In October last year, the daily order volume of Meituan bicycles exceeded 17 million.</p><p>How to maintain the profit level in the relatively certain main business, stand out as soon as possible in the highly uncertain innovative business, and occupy the market share will determine the trend of Meituan's stock price in the next year.</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ali, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAli, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 12:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the past 2020, times were inevitably marked and changed by the global spread of COVID-19, and in the consumer sphere, this change was particularly pronounced, with anti-consumerism discussions rampant for a while. The data of total retail sales of consumer goods and consumer confidence index in China all expose the uncertainty of the market environment.</p><p>However, a series of cold data is far from sketching the whole picture of the consumption field in the post-epidemic era. In fact, destruction and reconstruction are happening simultaneously.</p><p>Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>A number of e-commerce platforms such as Meituan and Meituan were hit by the epidemic, but as soon as the horn of \"stimulating domestic demand\" sounded, it was still these giant companies who enjoyed dividends.</p><p>Not counting the huge Ali, Pinduoduo, Meituan and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>In the past year, the share price has increased by more than 100%, and the market value has exceeded 100 billion dollars, which is extremely rare in any field. On the premise that the penetration rate of online physical retail and life services in the whole market is only 20%, e-commerce platforms have proved that their growth space is still broad.</p><p>As we enter 2021, there is no sign that this market trend will be reversed in the short term, the policy environment of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption will not waver, and the digital penetration rate in all fields is also slowly but firmly increasing.</p><p>But we can see that the era of relying on huge volume to enjoy dividends is also changing. After the State Administration for Market Regulation issued three \"anti-monopoly\" tickets in a row, the era of Internet anti-monopoly officially opened in the second half of 2020.</p><p>More than one industry insider said that 2021 will be a 10-year turning point in China's Internet antitrust history. \"For giants, 2021 will be a year of injury.\" Fang Xingdong, founder of Internet Lab, said in an interview with the media that the era of laissez-faire has ended, and China's Internet has officially entered a new era of rebuilding norms and order, which is a historic turn.</p><p>To be sure, Ali and Meituan will suffer greater damage to their interests in this anti-monopoly curtain, while JD.COM and Pinduoduo at the other end will enjoy the power of policies and struggle to catch up. However, no one can be sure how strictly antitrust will be enforced and how broad it will be. For e-commerce platforms, instead of being afraid of uncertainty, it is better to seize the opportunity and consolidate their advantages in certain things.</p><p>The sinking market is still the fat favored by all e-commerce platforms. The \"shopping war\" launched in the middle of last year will undoubtedly become more intense in 2021. For the huge companies, this bears the major mission of the \"second growth curve\", and no one is willing to lose easily in this war of attrition;</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of younger consumption has become very obvious, and the post-90s and post-00s have gradually become the main consumers. The pursuit of beauty and quality of life runs through the younger generation. Specifically, a number of potential companies have been born in beauty, skin care and food and beverage categories, which will still promote the rise of market sentiment in disguise and benefit the e-commerce platform.</p><p>In the medium and long term, the growth rate of China's GDP and total social retail sales continues to slow down, the economy is in the downward range, and the growth rate of e-commerce industry will definitely slow down. The traffic is peaking and the increment is difficult to find. In 2021, e-commerce platforms will fight more in the same battlefield, which will become the main theme in the next few years.</p><p><b>How does Ali get out of internal and external difficulties?</b></p><p>Although the e-commerce market still maintains steady growth, for Ali, 2020 is a rare difficult period since its founding, and it has encountered an unprecedented prestige crisis.</p><p>Externally, the impact of the pandemic, Ant's suspension of IPO, tightening anti-monopoly supervision and increasingly severe competition; Inside, weak growth and scandals involving several senior executives have followed.</p><p>Nowadays, the impact of the epidemic can almost be turned over, and the crisis of ants has come to an end with the introduction of the split plan. However, it is still unknown how long anti-monopoly supervision will last. This factor will not only cause Ali's share price to fluctuate in the short term, but also cause obstacles to business development to some extent.</p><p>Forced by the situation, Ali publicly expressed his position on e-commerce for the first time. At the merchant conference held in January 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fubuki, vice president of the group, once said that he did not support \"choose one of the two\", which means that Ali will not explicitly limit the flow of merchants. After the \"choose one\" restriction is liberalized, it may cause the outflow of merchant resources in the short term, but in the long run, the choice of merchants still depends on the comprehensive competition dimensions of each platform such as traffic cost, supply chain and logistics services.</p><p>In addition to the challenges brought by force majeure factors, the pressure from external competition has only increased. Next, I'm afraid it will be difficult for Ali to concentrate on dealing with competitors in a certain field as before.</p><p>At home, the sinking price war between Ali and Pinduoduo is still deadlocked. Taobao special edition, which formed a combination boxing with Juhuasuan, played \"1 yuan special price\" and directly supplied by C2M factory, was pushed to the front of the stage, led by Wang Hai, the person in charge of 1688, obviously to give full play to the advantages of B-end. As of November 11, 2020, the annual active buyers of Taobao Special Edition have exceeded 100 million. After assisting Taobao drainage, the special edition may change its name and surname to deal with the sinking battle with a more independent attitude.</p><p>The core of the content e-commerce war with Tik Tok and Kuaishou is the competition for users' time, coupled with the fact that users' shopping habits are shifting from active search to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Recommendation, the handmade page has been changed since the end of last year. The promotion of the strategic position of \"guess you like\" and the appearance of \"shopping\" mean that it will be fully aligned with the intelligent recommendation mode of information flow in communities such as Tik Tok and Xiaohongshu. With Tang Xing, who is good at content and technology, taking full control of Taobao, this trend will become more and more obvious this year.</p><p>The growth of Internet users is peaking day by day, which is undoubtedly revealed in Ali, a \"middle-aged giant\". From the data point of view, both from the perspective of user growth and GMV growth rate, it shows that Ali is facing the dilemma of weak growth.</p><p>According to the 2020 Q3 financial report, the growth of Ali's monthly active users is nearly 10 million lower than the market estimate. Although the Q4 financial report shows that the net increase of monthly active users in a single quarter exceeded 21 million, and the growth rate picked up, this is largely brought by the double 11 promotion, and whether it can be retained depends on the performance of the next quarter. In addition, GMV (i.e. turnover) grew by only 19% year-on-year, the lowest quarter except for the pandemic; Taobao's live GMV in 2020 was 400 billion yuan, which was also lower than the internal expectation of 500 billion yuan-the impact of Tik Tok Kuaishou overweight live e-commerce on Taobao began to gradually appear.</p><p>To overcome the difficult problem and increase the user time, the content of strength is one solution, and finding the traffic depression that still needs to be mined is another.</p><p>This is also the underlying reason why community group buying has become a battlefield for giants. Surprisingly, in the bustle, Ali seems particularly low-key. Except for the \"4 billion US dollars investment\" of slow people, his performance in other aspects is completely behind: it is still inconclusive which business department operates the community group purchase, and the performance target is unclear.</p><p>Chairman Zhang Yong's remarks at the 2020 Q3 financial report meeting can reveal some information: \"The competition for community group buying is fierce, but the market is still very early, and Ali has the best conditions, which can attract customers later.\" At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu also said that Taobao shopping, a new business incubated by core e-commerce, will not take the form of subsidies for exchanging markets to achieve the growth of users and single quantities.</p><p>combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>The information obtained from people close to Ali can be interpreted as that, from Ali's perspective, this round of price war and grabbing position war in pursuit of scale is not worth investing too much. It is more important to do a good job in quality expansion, such as upgrading the back-end supply chain and performance.</p><p>Growth or profit has become a multiple-choice question that Ali needs to face again. At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu made it clear that profit has never been Ali's first priority, and he will still invest heavily in innovative businesses in the future, including e-commerce seed business and others. It is foreseeable that for a long time, Taobao shopping, Taobao live broadcast, Taobao special edition, etc. will all get a lot of financial support. In addition, Ali also needs to give up some existing businesses that are difficult to support.</p><p>When enterprises are in difficulties internally and externally, the stability of organization is particularly important. However, since the beginning of this year, several executives, including Jiang Fan, have reported peach news and corruption scandals, and the core e-commerce companies, which have not made big moves for several years, have undergone substantial organizational adjustments. Ali also began to take the initiative to reflect on the defects in the construction of organizational culture: changing the once high-profile communication strategy, hiding the rank, canceling the weekly newspaper, canceling the 361 performance appraisal, and changing KPI to OKR. Recently, Zhang Yong's speech on the intranet to reflect on Zhongtai was also regarded as a precursor to Ali's splitting of Zhongtai.</p><p>After putting down some baggage, the big ship of Ali may be able to operate more flexibly.</p><p><b>What is the winning coupon geometry of Pinduoduo community group buying battle?</b></p><p>At the beginning of the new year, Pinduoduo appeared in the public view as a \"sweatshop\", and social events such as \"sudden death of employees\" and \"rights protection of employees\" that endangered corporate values and reputation occurred one after another.</p><p>As a result, Pinduoduo shares have experienced some ups and downs in the short term, but confidence in capital markets remains strong. However, from the business point of view, Pinduoduo, who originally won the title of CCTV Spring Festival Gala red envelope interactive partner, was finally replaced, losing an important promotion opportunity for payment business and grocery shopping business.</p><p>Grocery shopping business is regarded by Pinduoduo as an important weapon for whether it can continue to achieve the growth of users and turnover. In the early days of the competition, Pinduoduo grabbed a large market share with low prices and influence at the terminal, but it is still a long way from winning.</p><p>The community group buying industry is also developing in a more mature direction. From the perspective of financial indicators, giants are shifting from pursuing order volume and turnover to attaching importance to gross profit margin, and Pinduoduo is one of the representatives. After subsidies are reduced, if we want to maintain strong user growth, the difficulties will naturally become greater, and it becomes urgent to improve supply chain capability and performance efficiency.</p><p>From the perspective of expansion, following the successful experience of Xingsheng Optimization and opening a large number of offline stores may be one of the next development directions. At present, it seems that Meituan is testing the direct operation mode, while Didi has chosen the faster joining mode. There is no related action yet to buy more groceries.</p><p>More than solving the problem of growth, Pinduoduo is also planning for longer-term development. For example, how to handle the relationship with big brands, to what extent can we implement the new brand plan, and whether we can solve the hidden dangers of logistics.</p><p>Pinduoduo's current traffic is so large that it is difficult for big brands not to be tempted, but the tearing between the two sides also occurs frequently. SK2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Big names have also personally ended up maintaining their price systems. Seeing that the cooperation with brands either stays in some commodities or can only be indirectly cooperated by dealers, it is always superficial. Pinduoduo can only hope to attract some users who favor big names through the low-price temptation of \"tens of billions of subsidies\", which is not a long-term solution. As a result, Pinduoduo has also come up with the idea of incubating brands, but at present, the new brand plan focusing on C2M mode is still not effective at present.</p><p>Since last year, Pinduoduo has made a great breakthrough in the field of logistics, and has built Jitu Express with the number of e-commerce pieces second only to Ali's. Although it is still impossible to prove whether there is a capital binding between Pinduoduo and Jitu, the rapid development of Jitu can provide more bargaining chips for Pinduoduo to get rid of Ali's logistics system led by rookie. This year's Double Eleven and other big promotions will continue to stage the situation that the rabbit encounters the encirclement and suppression of Ali Department logistics.</p><p>In any case, how to maintain the growth of turnover and users, and really retain the non-sinking crowd, is still the main theme of Pinduoduo this year.</p><p><b>The new story of JD.COM retail, can logistics digital be successfully listed?</b></p><p>At least from the first three quarters of 2020, JD.COM's performance is quite good. After getting rid of nearly a year's stagnant growth, JD.COM's share price increased by 140% last year, second only to Meituan among Internet giants with a market value of over 100 billion dollars. Thanks to the long-term construction of logistics, JD.COM has become one of the few enterprises to benefit from the epidemic.</p><p>FMCG has become the fastest growing category in JD.COM in the past year. In Q2 and Q3 of 2020, the sales revenue of daily necessities increased by more than 35% year-on-year. However, to support the further rise of the stock price, JD.COM still needs to find new stories, and the newly established Jingxi business group has high hopes.</p><p>After Meituan, Didi and Pinduoduo plunged into the grocery buying war in the middle of last year, JD.COM, which arrived late, hurriedly completed the structural adjustment in November, packaged and reorganized the new channel, Jingxi and the newly established community group buying business, and planned to fight to the death in the sinking market.</p><p>At the end of December, Jingxi Pinpin opened in 14 cities at the same time. Earlier, they joined hands with the leader of community group buying-Xingsheng Preferred, and made a surprising strategic investment of 700 million US dollars in the latter, which made JD.COM, which was not optimistic, instantly have a place in the competitive situation.</p><p>Another news that surprised the outside world is that Liu Qiangdong, who has disappeared from the public for a long time, led the Jingxi business group this time. Many insiders in JD.COM told 36Kr that Liu Qiangdong's willingness to return to the front line of business has increased sharply in the past few months. \"I have repeatedly asked about the specific business situation and consulted employees' suggestions on company management in JD.COM's internal forums\", which is exciting news for the secondary market.</p><p>In this community group buying war, JD.COM's only advantage may be the accumulation of logistics, but considering JD.COM's execution and success rate in innovative business in the past few years, it is uncertain whether it can stand out in this battle of sinking market.</p><p>At the end of 2020, JD Retail also made a series of personnel and structure adjustments, focusing on the integration of third-party POP platform business. For JD.COM, in order to achieve \"accelerated growth\" in the four core indicators of transaction volume, revenue, users and profits \"in 2021, POP category still cannot be ignored, especially in the case of tightening anti-monopoly supervision. JD.COM, which has been suppressed by\" choosing one \"for a long time, may be able to make up lessons in clothing and other categories through this anti-monopoly investigation.</p><p>However, for other JD.COM sub-groups, the past few months have not been good. JD.COM Digital became a joint victim of the suspension of Ant's IPO, and the road to listing was suspended. Chen Shengqiang, the former CEO of Digital Science, also turned behind the scenes. In order to comply with financial regulatory requirements, Digital has continuously integrated AI and cloud services to further enhance its technological attributes.</p><p>For several financial giants, perhaps going public is no longer the first choice at present. At least after the ant incident, no one will want to be the first \"crab eater\". At least in 2021, it may not happen.</p><p>The resignation of Wang Zhenhui, CEO of JD.COM Logistics, also surprised the outside world. According to market news, JD Logistics has selected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Leading the Hong Kong IPO, the company may be valued at about US$40 billion, and plans to go public in the second or third quarter of 2021.</p><p>The revenue of JD.COM Logistics has maintained a year-on-year growth of more than 50% for many quarters. Referring to the improvement of the overall valuation of JD.COM Group by the listing of JD.COM Health, the listing of JD.COM Logistics may push the market value of JD.COM to another level.</p><p><b>Meituan stock price or flying with innovative business losses</b></p><p>If the trend in 2019 is consistent, Meituan in 2020 is still the fastest-soaring giant among Chinese Internet companies, with its market value rising by 170% a year. After the anti-monopoly storm and the short fluctuation of the stock price, Meituan's share price at the beginning of 2021 was unbreakable, increasing by 43% in just 20 days, and its market value exceeded HK$2.3 trillion.</p><p>Getting rid of the impact of the epidemic, highly stable main business income, and the imagination brought to the market by innovative businesses such as community group buying, Meituan is still the local Internet company most favored by the secondary market. However, as summarized before, the current share price of Meituan contains a certain extent of ahead-of-schedule expectations of the market. Once the performance fluctuates, its share price sensitivity will be greatly enhanced, which requires Meituan to balance the relationship between innovative business investment and profit in the future.</p><p>Community group buying is undoubtedly the most concerned business of the US Mission at present. Since entering the game in July 2020, the US Mission has full of stamina. According to a number of community group buying practitioners, 36 Krypton revealed that in the first week of the new year, the national average daily order volume of Meituan has reached 20 million, becoming the first in the industry, and it has successively overtaken the daily order volume of Duoduo grocery buying in Wuhan and Jiangxi.</p><p>For the newly entered market, Meituan prefers to continue to rely on high-pressure subsidies to compete for the market. At present, in South China and Central China, the average price of Meituan prefers to buy food is far lower than that of Duoduo (about 4 or 5 pieces). In relatively mature markets, Meituan has not only paid attention to the single quantity and repurchase rate, but gross profit has also become a new assessment index in 2021.</p><p>Especially on the performance side, in the past few months, Meituan has continued to reduce costs through standardized management. A franchisee of Meituan Preferred Grid Warehouse in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai revealed to 36Kr that in order to optimize the operation flow of grid warehouse, Meituan will ask its grid warehouse to add cameras, monitor them in real time, digitize each process, and make refined adjustments through data operation; In addition, the US Mission prefers to send headquarters personnel to the station one after another to keep an eye on the operation process.</p><p>The latest news is that Meituan Preferred has planned to prepare the first batch of offline direct stores in Hangzhou. On the intranet of the US Mission, there are already recruitment posts for Hangzhou store staff. However, according to people familiar with the matter, \"the early stage is just an attempt, and it is uncertain whether it will be opened on a large scale in 2021.\"</p><p>In Q3 2020, Meituan lost 2.029 billion yuan in innovative business, an increase of 68.8% year-on-year. Considering that the community group buying business has now become a battlefield for military strategists, the US Mission may still need to burn money to build a moat, and it is urgent to maintain the profit level in its main business.</p><p>Fortunately, the main business of Meituan is stable enough, especially the take-out business, which has started from traffic to profit. In Q2 and Q3 2020, the operating profit of Meituan Food Delivery was 1.253 billion yuan and 768 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>However, the hidden worry is that the price of this profit is the continuous improvement of commissions and advertising business, and behind it is the squeeze of merchants. At the beginning of last year, Guangdong Catering Association jointly shouted to the US Mission, demanding a reduction in the commission ratio, which was the outbreak of conflicts intensified in the special market.</p><p>Under the anti-monopoly sentiment, forcing merchants to \"choose one of the two\" may affect Meituan's control over merchants in the future, and the resulting instability of commission and advertising revenue will also affect Meituan's profit prospects. However, from the current point of view, this impact is still minimal, and \"choose one\" still exists widely. Judging from the stock price, the secondary market has not shown excessive panic about the impact of antitrust on the US Mission.</p><p>Another business to look forward to is bike-sharing. For Meituan, this is the only innovative business with a single quantity of tens of millions, which is of great help to enhance the activity of Meituan Dianping App and realize cross-selling of various businesses. At the same time, the end of the bicycle track war also gave Meituan the opportunity to raise the unit price and run it as a normal business. In October last year, the daily order volume of Meituan bicycles exceeded 17 million.</p><p>How to maintain the profit level in the relatively certain main business, stand out as soon as possible in the highly uncertain innovative business, and occupy the market share will determine the trend of Meituan's stock price in the next year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/E9OgvUb6VvBZT1ZHhKijWQ\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","03690":"美团-W","09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/E9OgvUb6VvBZT1ZHhKijWQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176177637","content_text":"过去的2020年，时代不可避免地被全球蔓延的新冠疫情标记和改变，在消费领域，这种改变尤为明显，反消费主义的讨论一时甚嚣尘上。全国社会消费品零售总额、消费者信心指数等数据无不暴露出市场大环境的不确定性。但是，一系列冰冷的数据远远无法勾画出后疫情时代消费领域的全貌，事实上，破坏、重建正在同步发生。阿里、拼多多、美团等一众电商平台遭遇疫情打击，但“拉动内需”的号角一吹响，坐享红利的仍是这些巨头公司。不算体量巨大的阿里，拼多多、美团和京东过去一年的股价涨幅均超过了100%，且市值均超过了千亿美金，这在任何领域都极其罕见。在线上实物零售及生活服务在整个大盘的渗透率只有20%的前提下，电商平台们证明了自己的增长空间仍然广阔。迈入2021年，没有迹象显示这一市场趋势会短期内遭到逆转，扩大内需、提振消费的政策大环境也不会动摇，全领域的数字化渗透率亦在缓慢而坚定地提高。但我们能看到，依靠巨大体量享尽红利的时代也正在发生变化。在市场监管总局连续发出三张“反垄断”罚单后，互联网反垄断的时代在2020年下半年正式开启。不止一位业内人士称，2021年会是中国互联网反垄断史上以10年计的大转折之年。“于巨头而言，2021年会是伤筋动骨的一年。”互联网实验室创始人方兴东在接受媒体采访时表示，自由放任时代结束，中国互联网正式进入重建规范、重构秩序的新时代，这是历史性的转向。可以肯定的是，阿里和美团将在这场反垄断大幕中，遭受更大的利益损害，而另一端的京东和拼多多或将享受政策之力，奋力追赶。但反垄断将执行多严格，涉及多广泛，无人可以确定。对电商平台来说，与其在不确定性中担惊受怕，不如在确定的事情上抓紧机会，巩固优势。下沉市场仍是那块被所有电商平台都垂青的肥肉，从去年年中展开的“买菜大战”毫无疑问将在2021年更加激烈，对于体量庞大的各家来说，这承担着“第二增长曲线”的重大使命，谁都不愿意在这场消耗战中轻易败下阵来；另一方面，消费年轻化趋势已非常明显，90后、00后逐渐成为主力消费人群。对于美和生活品质的相关追求贯穿年轻一代，具体到品类来说，美妆护肤类、食品饮料类都诞生了多家潜力公司，这变相仍会推动市场情绪的高涨，利好电商平台。中长期来看，中国GDP、社会零售总额增速持续放缓，经济正处在下行区间，电商行业增速肯定会放缓。流量见顶、增量难寻，2021年电商平台们将更多地在同一战场厮杀，这将成为未来几年的主旋律。阿里如何走出内外交困？尽管电商大盘仍保持着稳定增长，但对阿里而言，2020是其创业以来罕见的困顿时期，并遭遇了前所未有的声望危机。在外，疫情冲击、蚂蚁暂缓IPO、反垄断监管趋严、竞争局势日趋严峻；在内，增长乏力、数位高管的丑闻等问题接踵而至。如今，疫情的影响几乎可以翻篇，蚂蚁的危机随着拆分方案的出台暂告一段落。不过，反垄断监管还将持续多少时日仍未可知，这一因素不仅导致阿里股价在短期内震荡，还将一定程度造成业务发展上的障碍。受形势所迫，阿里首次公开对电商“二选一”表态。2021年1月举办的商家大会上，阿里巴巴集团副总裁吹雪曾表示不支持“二选一”，这意味着阿里不会明着对商家限流。“二选一”限制放开后，短期或造成商户资源外流，但长远看，商家的选择仍然要看各平台的流量成本、供应链、物流服务等综合竞争维度。除了不可抗力因素带来的挑战，来自外部竞争的压力也只增不减，接下来，阿里恐怕很难如以往那般，专心对付某一个领域的竞争对手。电商主场，阿里与拼多多的下沉价格战依然胶着。与聚划算等形成组合拳、打出“1元特价”和C2M工厂直供的淘宝特价版被推向台前，由1688负责人汪海主导，显然是要发挥B端优势。截至2020年11月11日，淘宝特价版的年度活跃买家已突破1亿人。在辅助淘宝引流后，特价版或将更名换姓，以更独立的姿态，应对下沉之战。与抖音和快手的内容电商大战，核心是对用户时长的争夺，再加上用户的购物习惯正从主动搜索转向智能化推荐，手淘页面自去年底起改头换面，“猜你喜欢”战略地位的提升、“逛逛”的出现，意味着其将全面向抖音、小红书等社区的信息流智能推荐模式看齐，而随着擅长内容和技术的汤兴全面掌管淘宝，这个趋势在今年将愈发明显。互联网用户的增长正日趋见顶，这一点在“中年巨头”阿里身上显露无疑。从数据来看，无论从用户增长还是GMV增速来看，都显示着阿里正面临增长乏力的困境。2020年Q3财报显示，阿里月活用户的增长低于市场预估近1000万。虽然Q4财报显示，月活用户单季净增超过2100万，增速回暖，但这很大程度是双11大促带来的，能否留存还需要看下个季度的表现。此外，GMV（即成交额）同比增速仅为19%，是除疫情外最低的一个季度；淘宝直播2020年全年GMV为4000亿元，也低于内部预期的5000亿元——抖音快手加码直播电商对于淘宝的冲击，开始逐渐显现。若要攻破难题，增加用户时长，发力内容是一个解决方案，寻找仍待开采的流量洼地是另一个。这也是社区团购成为巨头必争之地的底层原因。令人意外的是，在一片热闹中，阿里却显得格外低调，除了慢人一拍的“40亿美元投入”，在其他方面的表现上全面落后：社区团购由哪个业务部门操盘仍无定论、业绩目标也不明确。董事长张勇在2020年Q3财报会上的一席话能透露出些许信息：“社区团购竞争白热化，但市场还非常早期，阿里条件最好，之后能把客户吸引过来。”在2020年Q4财报会上，CFO卫武也表示，核心电商孵化的新业务淘宝买菜将不会采取补贴换市场的形式来实现用户和单量的增长。结合36氪从接近阿里的人士处获取的信息，可以解读为，在阿里视角，这轮为了追求规模而打出的价格战和抢点位战，并不值得投入太多，先做好质量的扩张如提升后端的供应链和履约才更要紧。要增长还是要利润，成了阿里需要重新面对的选择题。2020年Q4财报会上，CFO卫武明确表示，利润从不是阿里的第一优先选择，未来仍将大量投资创新业务，包括电商种子业务和其他。可以预见，在很长一段时间内，淘宝买菜、淘宝直播、淘宝特价版等都将获得大量的资金支持。此外，对于已有的难以扶持的部分业务，阿里也需要断舍离一番。企业处于内外交困之际，组织的稳定性显得尤为重要。然而，今年以来，包括蒋凡在内的数位高管传出的桃色新闻和贪腐丑闻，数年未大动的核心电商因此经历了较大幅度的组织调整。阿里也开始主动反思组织文化建设上存在的缺陷：改变曾经高调的传播策略、隐藏职级、取消周报、取消361绩效考核、改KPI为OKR，近期张勇在内网的一次反思中台的演讲也被视作阿里将拆分中台的前兆。放下一些包袱后，阿里这艘大船或许能运转得更为灵活。拼多多社区团购之战胜券几何？新年开局，拼多多是以“血汗工厂”的面貌出现在大众视野里，“员工猝死”、“员工维权”等危及企业价值观和声望的社会性事件接连发生。拼多多的股价因此在短期内经历一番起伏，不过，资本市场对其信心仍然十分强劲。但从业务角度来看，原本拿下央视春晚红包互动合作伙伴头衔的拼多多，最终被替换，失去了给支付业务和买菜业务的一次重要推广机会。买菜业务被拼多多视为能否持续实现用户和成交额增长重要武器。在竞争早期，拼多多凭借低价和在终端的影响力，抢到了较大的市场份额，不过，距离其取得胜利还有很长的路。社区团购行业也在向更成熟的方向发展。从财务指标上来看，巨头们正从追求订单量和成交额等转向看重毛利率，拼多多是其中代表。补贴变少之后，要想保持强劲的用户增长，困难自然会变大，提高供应链能力和履约效率变得紧迫起来。从扩张层面来看，效仿兴盛优选曾经的成功经验，开出大量线下门店或将是接下来的发展方向之一，目前看来，美团在试水直营模式，而滴滴选择了速度更快的加盟模式。多多买菜目前还没有相关动作。不止要解决增长的问题，拼多多还在为更长远的发展谋划。例如如何处理好与大品牌的关系、能在多大程度上推行新品牌计划、能否解决物流隐患。拼多多如今的流量之大，大品牌很难不心动，但双方的撕扯也频繁发生，SK2、特斯拉等大牌也都曾亲自下场维护其价格体系，眼看和品牌的合作要么停留在部分商品入驻，要么只能通过经销商间接合作，总是浅尝辄止，拼多多只能寄望于通过“百亿补贴”打出的低价诱惑来吸引部分青睐大牌的用户，这非长久之计。由此，拼多多也萌生孵化品牌的想法，但目前来看，主打C2M模式的新品牌计划目前成效依然不大。自去年起，拼多多在物流领域有了较大的突破，用仅次于阿里的电商件数扶植起了极兔快递。虽然目前还无法证明拼多多与极兔之间是否存在资本绑定，但极兔的迅猛发展能为拼多多摆脱以菜鸟为首的阿里物流体系提供更多筹码。今年双十一等大促或将继续上演极兔遭遇阿里系物流围剿的局面。无论如何，如何保持成交额和用户的增长，并真正留住非下沉人群，仍然是拼多多今年的主旋律。京东零售的新故事，物流数科能否成功上市？至少从2020年的前三个季度看，京东的业绩表现是相当可以的。在摆脱了近一年的增长停滞后，京东股价在去年实现了140%的涨幅，在市值超1000亿美金的一众互联网巨头中，仅次于美团。得益于物流的长期建设，京东成了为数不多受益疫情的企业。大快消成为过去一年京东增长势头最快的品类，2020年的Q2和Q3，日用百货商品销售收入同比增长均超过了35%，但眼下要想支撑股价的进一步上扬，京东仍需找到新故事，最新组建的京喜事业群被寄予厚望。美团、滴滴、拼多多在去年年中纷纷扎入买菜大战后，姗姗来迟的京东在11月才匆匆完成架构调整，将新通路、京喜和新成立的社区团购业务等打包重组，打算在下沉市场展开殊死搏斗。12月底，京喜拼拼在14城同时开城。而在更早前，他们牵手了社区团购龙头——兴盛优选，令人意外的战略投资后者7亿美金，这让不被看好的京东，瞬间在竞争局势中有了一席之地。另一个让外界惊讶的消息是，此次统领京喜事业群的是消失在公众面前许久的刘强东，多位京东内部人士向36氪表示，刘强东重返业务一线的意愿在过去几个月内陡增，“已经多次在京东内部论坛上询问具体业务情况，咨询员工对公司管理的建议”，这对二级市场来说这是个令人振奋的消息。在这场社区团购大战中，京东唯一的优势可能是物流端的积累，但考虑过去几年京东在创新业务上的执行力和成功率，能否在这场下沉市场的战斗中脱颖而出并不确定。2020年终，京东零售也进行了一系列的人员和架构调整，重点在于整合第三方的POP平台业务。对于京东来说，要在2021年实现“交易额、收入、用户和利润四大核心指标上”的“加速增长”，POP品类仍然不容忽视，尤其是在反垄断监管趋严的情况下，长期遭受“二选一”打压的京东，或许能借这次反垄断调查，在服饰等品类上抓紧补课。不过对于其他京东子集团，过去几个月并不好受。京东数科成为了蚂蚁IPO暂缓事件的连带受害者，上市之路就此暂停，数科原CEO陈生强也转至幕后。为了符合金融监管要求，数科连续整合了AI和云业务，进一步增强科技属性。对于几家金融巨头来说，眼下或许上市已经不再是第一选择，至少在蚂蚁事件之后，没有人会想成为第一个“吃螃蟹的人”，至少在2021年，可能不太会发生。京东物流CEO王振辉的辞职也让外界倍感意外。根据市场消息，京东物流已挑选美国银行和高盛牵头经办香港IPO事宜，公司估值可能达约400亿美元，并计划在2021年第二季度或第三季度上市。京东物流收入已经保持了多个季度50%以上的同比增长，参考京东健康上市对京东集团整体估值的提升，京东物流的上市或许会将京东市值再推一个台阶。美团股价或与创新业务亏损齐飞如2019年的走势一致，2020年的美团仍然是中国互联网公司中股价蹿升最快的巨头，市值一年大涨170%。在遭遇反垄断风波，股价短暂波动后，2021开年的美团股价势如破竹，短短20天增幅43%，市值超23000亿港币。摆脱疫情影响，高度稳定的主营业务收入，叠加社区团购等创新业务带给市场的想象力，美团仍是最被二级市场看好的本土互联网公司。但还是之前总结的，当前美团股价包含市场一定程度的超前预期，一旦业绩出现波动，其股价敏感度将大大增强，这需要美团在未来平衡好创新业务投入与利润之间的关系。社区团购无疑是美团当前最受外界关注的业务，自2020年7月入局以来，美团优选后劲十足。据多位社区团购从业者向36氪透露，新年第一周，美团优选的全国日均订单量已经达到2000万，成为行业第一，并在武汉和江西先后完成了对多多买菜日单量的反超。对于新近进入的市场美团优选继续靠高压补贴来争夺市场，目前在华南、华中一带，美团优选的件均价已远低于多多买菜（大概在4、5块上下），而在相对成熟的市场，美团已不仅仅关注单量和复购率，毛利也成为了2021年新的考核指标。尤其在履约端，过去几个月美团在持续通过规范管理来降低成本。一位江浙沪区域的美团优选网格仓加盟商向36氪透露，为了优化网格仓作业流程，美团会要求旗下的网格仓加入摄像头，实时监控，把每个流程数据化，通过数据运营再做精细化调整；另外美团优选陆续派总部人员前往驻点，紧盯操作流程。最新的消息是，美团优选已经计划在杭州筹备首批线下直营店。在美团内网上，已经有杭州门店人员的招聘帖。不过据知情人士透露，“前期只是尝试，2021年是否会大范围开设并不确定。”2020年Q3，美团在创新业务上亏损了20.29亿元，同比扩大68.8%。考虑到社区团购业务如今成了兵家必争之地，美团或仍需烧钱来高筑护城河，也急需要在主营业务上保持住利润水平。不过好在，美团的主营业务足够稳定，尤其是外卖业务，已经从流量担当开始成为盈利担当。2020年Q2和Q3，美团餐饮外卖的经营利润分别为12.53亿元和7.68亿元。但隐忧的地方是，这一利润代价是佣金和广告业务不断提高，背后是对商家的压榨。去年年初，广东餐饮协会联名喊话美团，要求降低佣金比例，就是矛盾激化在特殊行情下的爆发。在反垄断情绪下，逼迫商家“二选一”或许将在未来影响美团对于商家的控制，由此带来的佣金和广告收入的不稳定性也将影响美团的利润前景。不过从目前来看，这一影响还微乎其微，“二选一”仍广泛存在。 从股价行情看，二级市场对于反垄断之于美团的影响也并未展现出过度持久的恐慌。另一个值得期待的业务是共享单车。对美团来说，这是创新业务中唯二单量在千万级别的，对于提升美团点评App活跃度，进而实现各个业务的交叉销售有极大帮助。同时，单车赛道大战落幕也使得美团有机会提升单价，把它作为一个正常的生意来运转，去年10月，美团单车的日订单量已经突破1700万单。如何在相对确定性的主营业务中保持住利润水平，在高度不确定性的创新业务中尽快脱颖而出，占据市场份额，决定美团未来一年股价走向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"09618":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382844915,"gmtCreate":1613435677437,"gmtModify":1704880407356,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382844915","repostId":"1176177637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176177637","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613535611,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176177637?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 12:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ali, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176177637","media":"36氪","summary":"过去的2020年，时代不可避免地被全球蔓延的新冠疫情标记和改变，在消费领域，这种改变尤为明显，反消费主义的讨论一时甚嚣尘上。全国社会消费品零售总额、消费者信心指数等数据无不暴露出市场大环境的不确定性。","content":"<p>In the past 2020, times were inevitably marked and changed by the global spread of COVID-19, and in the consumer sphere, this change was particularly pronounced, with anti-consumerism discussions rampant for a while. The data of total retail sales of consumer goods and consumer confidence index in China all expose the uncertainty of the market environment.</p><p>However, a series of cold data is far from sketching the whole picture of the consumption field in the post-epidemic era. In fact, destruction and reconstruction are happening simultaneously.</p><p>Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>A number of e-commerce platforms such as Meituan and Meituan were hit by the epidemic, but as soon as the horn of \"stimulating domestic demand\" sounded, it was still these giant companies who enjoyed dividends.</p><p>Not counting the huge Ali, Pinduoduo, Meituan and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>In the past year, the share price has increased by more than 100%, and the market value has exceeded 100 billion dollars, which is extremely rare in any field. On the premise that the penetration rate of online physical retail and life services in the whole market is only 20%, e-commerce platforms have proved that their growth space is still broad.</p><p>As we enter 2021, there is no sign that this market trend will be reversed in the short term, the policy environment of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption will not waver, and the digital penetration rate in all fields is also slowly but firmly increasing.</p><p>But we can see that the era of relying on huge volume to enjoy dividends is also changing. After the State Administration for Market Regulation issued three \"anti-monopoly\" tickets in a row, the era of Internet anti-monopoly officially opened in the second half of 2020.</p><p>More than one industry insider said that 2021 will be a 10-year turning point in China's Internet antitrust history. \"For giants, 2021 will be a year of injury.\" Fang Xingdong, founder of Internet Lab, said in an interview with the media that the era of laissez-faire has ended, and China's Internet has officially entered a new era of rebuilding norms and order, which is a historic turn.</p><p>To be sure, Ali and Meituan will suffer greater damage to their interests in this anti-monopoly curtain, while JD.COM and Pinduoduo at the other end will enjoy the power of policies and struggle to catch up. However, no one can be sure how strictly antitrust will be enforced and how broad it will be. For e-commerce platforms, instead of being afraid of uncertainty, it is better to seize the opportunity and consolidate their advantages in certain things.</p><p>The sinking market is still the fat favored by all e-commerce platforms. The \"shopping war\" launched in the middle of last year will undoubtedly become more intense in 2021. For the huge companies, this bears the major mission of the \"second growth curve\", and no one is willing to lose easily in this war of attrition;</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of younger consumption has become very obvious, and the post-90s and post-00s have gradually become the main consumers. The pursuit of beauty and quality of life runs through the younger generation. Specifically, a number of potential companies have been born in beauty, skin care and food and beverage categories, which will still promote the rise of market sentiment in disguise and benefit the e-commerce platform.</p><p>In the medium and long term, the growth rate of China's GDP and total social retail sales continues to slow down, the economy is in the downward range, and the growth rate of e-commerce industry will definitely slow down. The traffic is peaking and the increment is difficult to find. In 2021, e-commerce platforms will fight more in the same battlefield, which will become the main theme in the next few years.</p><p><b>How does Ali get out of internal and external difficulties?</b></p><p>Although the e-commerce market still maintains steady growth, for Ali, 2020 is a rare difficult period since its founding, and it has encountered an unprecedented prestige crisis.</p><p>Externally, the impact of the pandemic, Ant's suspension of IPO, tightening anti-monopoly supervision and increasingly severe competition; Inside, weak growth and scandals involving several senior executives have followed.</p><p>Nowadays, the impact of the epidemic can almost be turned over, and the crisis of ants has come to an end with the introduction of the split plan. However, it is still unknown how long anti-monopoly supervision will last. This factor will not only cause Ali's share price to fluctuate in the short term, but also cause obstacles to business development to some extent.</p><p>Forced by the situation, Ali publicly expressed his position on e-commerce for the first time. At the merchant conference held in January 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fubuki, vice president of the group, once said that he did not support \"choose one of the two\", which means that Ali will not explicitly limit the flow of merchants. After the \"choose one\" restriction is liberalized, it may cause the outflow of merchant resources in the short term, but in the long run, the choice of merchants still depends on the comprehensive competition dimensions of each platform such as traffic cost, supply chain and logistics services.</p><p>In addition to the challenges brought by force majeure factors, the pressure from external competition has only increased. Next, I'm afraid it will be difficult for Ali to concentrate on dealing with competitors in a certain field as before.</p><p>At home, the sinking price war between Ali and Pinduoduo is still deadlocked. Taobao special edition, which formed a combination boxing with Juhuasuan, played \"1 yuan special price\" and directly supplied by C2M factory, was pushed to the front of the stage, led by Wang Hai, the person in charge of 1688, obviously to give full play to the advantages of B-end. As of November 11, 2020, the annual active buyers of Taobao Special Edition have exceeded 100 million. After assisting Taobao drainage, the special edition may change its name and surname to deal with the sinking battle with a more independent attitude.</p><p>The core of the content e-commerce war with Tik Tok and Kuaishou is the competition for users' time, coupled with the fact that users' shopping habits are shifting from active search to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Recommendation, the handmade page has been changed since the end of last year. The promotion of the strategic position of \"guess you like\" and the appearance of \"shopping\" mean that it will be fully aligned with the intelligent recommendation mode of information flow in communities such as Tik Tok and Xiaohongshu. With Tang Xing, who is good at content and technology, taking full control of Taobao, this trend will become more and more obvious this year.</p><p>The growth of Internet users is peaking day by day, which is undoubtedly revealed in Ali, a \"middle-aged giant\". From the data point of view, both from the perspective of user growth and GMV growth rate, it shows that Ali is facing the dilemma of weak growth.</p><p>According to the 2020 Q3 financial report, the growth of Ali's monthly active users is nearly 10 million lower than the market estimate. Although the Q4 financial report shows that the net increase of monthly active users in a single quarter exceeded 21 million, and the growth rate picked up, this is largely brought by the double 11 promotion, and whether it can be retained depends on the performance of the next quarter. In addition, GMV (i.e. turnover) grew by only 19% year-on-year, the lowest quarter except for the pandemic; Taobao's live GMV in 2020 was 400 billion yuan, which was also lower than the internal expectation of 500 billion yuan-the impact of Tik Tok Kuaishou overweight live e-commerce on Taobao began to gradually appear.</p><p>To overcome the difficult problem and increase the user time, the content of strength is one solution, and finding the traffic depression that still needs to be mined is another.</p><p>This is also the underlying reason why community group buying has become a battlefield for giants. Surprisingly, in the bustle, Ali seems particularly low-key. Except for the \"4 billion US dollars investment\" of slow people, his performance in other aspects is completely behind: it is still inconclusive which business department operates the community group purchase, and the performance target is unclear.</p><p>Chairman Zhang Yong's remarks at the 2020 Q3 financial report meeting can reveal some information: \"The competition for community group buying is fierce, but the market is still very early, and Ali has the best conditions, which can attract customers later.\" At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu also said that Taobao shopping, a new business incubated by core e-commerce, will not take the form of subsidies for exchanging markets to achieve the growth of users and single quantities.</p><p>combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>The information obtained from people close to Ali can be interpreted as that, from Ali's perspective, this round of price war and grabbing position war in pursuit of scale is not worth investing too much. It is more important to do a good job in quality expansion, such as upgrading the back-end supply chain and performance.</p><p>Growth or profit has become a multiple-choice question that Ali needs to face again. At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu made it clear that profit has never been Ali's first priority, and he will still invest heavily in innovative businesses in the future, including e-commerce seed business and others. It is foreseeable that for a long time, Taobao shopping, Taobao live broadcast, Taobao special edition, etc. will all get a lot of financial support. In addition, Ali also needs to give up some existing businesses that are difficult to support.</p><p>When enterprises are in difficulties internally and externally, the stability of organization is particularly important. However, since the beginning of this year, several executives, including Jiang Fan, have reported peach news and corruption scandals, and the core e-commerce companies, which have not made big moves for several years, have undergone substantial organizational adjustments. Ali also began to take the initiative to reflect on the defects in the construction of organizational culture: changing the once high-profile communication strategy, hiding the rank, canceling the weekly newspaper, canceling the 361 performance appraisal, and changing KPI to OKR. Recently, Zhang Yong's speech on the intranet to reflect on Zhongtai was also regarded as a precursor to Ali's splitting of Zhongtai.</p><p>After putting down some baggage, the big ship of Ali may be able to operate more flexibly.</p><p><b>What is the winning coupon geometry of Pinduoduo community group buying battle?</b></p><p>At the beginning of the new year, Pinduoduo appeared in the public view as a \"sweatshop\", and social events such as \"sudden death of employees\" and \"rights protection of employees\" that endangered corporate values and reputation occurred one after another.</p><p>As a result, Pinduoduo shares have experienced some ups and downs in the short term, but confidence in capital markets remains strong. However, from the business point of view, Pinduoduo, who originally won the title of CCTV Spring Festival Gala red envelope interactive partner, was finally replaced, losing an important promotion opportunity for payment business and grocery shopping business.</p><p>Grocery shopping business is regarded by Pinduoduo as an important weapon for whether it can continue to achieve the growth of users and turnover. In the early days of the competition, Pinduoduo grabbed a large market share with low prices and influence at the terminal, but it is still a long way from winning.</p><p>The community group buying industry is also developing in a more mature direction. From the perspective of financial indicators, giants are shifting from pursuing order volume and turnover to attaching importance to gross profit margin, and Pinduoduo is one of the representatives. After subsidies are reduced, if we want to maintain strong user growth, the difficulties will naturally become greater, and it becomes urgent to improve supply chain capability and performance efficiency.</p><p>From the perspective of expansion, following the successful experience of Xingsheng Optimization and opening a large number of offline stores may be one of the next development directions. At present, it seems that Meituan is testing the direct operation mode, while Didi has chosen the faster joining mode. There is no related action yet to buy more groceries.</p><p>More than solving the problem of growth, Pinduoduo is also planning for longer-term development. For example, how to handle the relationship with big brands, to what extent can we implement the new brand plan, and whether we can solve the hidden dangers of logistics.</p><p>Pinduoduo's current traffic is so large that it is difficult for big brands not to be tempted, but the tearing between the two sides also occurs frequently. SK2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Big names have also personally ended up maintaining their price systems. Seeing that the cooperation with brands either stays in some commodities or can only be indirectly cooperated by dealers, it is always superficial. Pinduoduo can only hope to attract some users who favor big names through the low-price temptation of \"tens of billions of subsidies\", which is not a long-term solution. As a result, Pinduoduo has also come up with the idea of incubating brands, but at present, the new brand plan focusing on C2M mode is still not effective at present.</p><p>Since last year, Pinduoduo has made a great breakthrough in the field of logistics, and has built Jitu Express with the number of e-commerce pieces second only to Ali's. Although it is still impossible to prove whether there is a capital binding between Pinduoduo and Jitu, the rapid development of Jitu can provide more bargaining chips for Pinduoduo to get rid of Ali's logistics system led by rookie. This year's Double Eleven and other big promotions will continue to stage the situation that the rabbit encounters the encirclement and suppression of Ali Department logistics.</p><p>In any case, how to maintain the growth of turnover and users, and really retain the non-sinking crowd, is still the main theme of Pinduoduo this year.</p><p><b>The new story of JD.COM retail, can logistics digital be successfully listed?</b></p><p>At least from the first three quarters of 2020, JD.COM's performance is quite good. After getting rid of nearly a year's stagnant growth, JD.COM's share price increased by 140% last year, second only to Meituan among Internet giants with a market value of over 100 billion dollars. Thanks to the long-term construction of logistics, JD.COM has become one of the few enterprises to benefit from the epidemic.</p><p>FMCG has become the fastest growing category in JD.COM in the past year. In Q2 and Q3 of 2020, the sales revenue of daily necessities increased by more than 35% year-on-year. However, to support the further rise of the stock price, JD.COM still needs to find new stories, and the newly established Jingxi business group has high hopes.</p><p>After Meituan, Didi and Pinduoduo plunged into the grocery buying war in the middle of last year, JD.COM, which arrived late, hurriedly completed the structural adjustment in November, packaged and reorganized the new channel, Jingxi and the newly established community group buying business, and planned to fight to the death in the sinking market.</p><p>At the end of December, Jingxi Pinpin opened in 14 cities at the same time. Earlier, they joined hands with the leader of community group buying-Xingsheng Preferred, and made a surprising strategic investment of 700 million US dollars in the latter, which made JD.COM, which was not optimistic, instantly have a place in the competitive situation.</p><p>Another news that surprised the outside world is that Liu Qiangdong, who has disappeared from the public for a long time, led the Jingxi business group this time. Many insiders in JD.COM told 36Kr that Liu Qiangdong's willingness to return to the front line of business has increased sharply in the past few months. \"I have repeatedly asked about the specific business situation and consulted employees' suggestions on company management in JD.COM's internal forums\", which is exciting news for the secondary market.</p><p>In this community group buying war, JD.COM's only advantage may be the accumulation of logistics, but considering JD.COM's execution and success rate in innovative business in the past few years, it is uncertain whether it can stand out in this battle of sinking market.</p><p>At the end of 2020, JD Retail also made a series of personnel and structure adjustments, focusing on the integration of third-party POP platform business. For JD.COM, in order to achieve \"accelerated growth\" in the four core indicators of transaction volume, revenue, users and profits \"in 2021, POP category still cannot be ignored, especially in the case of tightening anti-monopoly supervision. JD.COM, which has been suppressed by\" choosing one \"for a long time, may be able to make up lessons in clothing and other categories through this anti-monopoly investigation.</p><p>However, for other JD.COM sub-groups, the past few months have not been good. JD.COM Digital became a joint victim of the suspension of Ant's IPO, and the road to listing was suspended. Chen Shengqiang, the former CEO of Digital Science, also turned behind the scenes. In order to comply with financial regulatory requirements, Digital has continuously integrated AI and cloud services to further enhance its technological attributes.</p><p>For several financial giants, perhaps going public is no longer the first choice at present. At least after the ant incident, no one will want to be the first \"crab eater\". At least in 2021, it may not happen.</p><p>The resignation of Wang Zhenhui, CEO of JD.COM Logistics, also surprised the outside world. According to market news, JD Logistics has selected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Leading the Hong Kong IPO, the company may be valued at about US$40 billion, and plans to go public in the second or third quarter of 2021.</p><p>The revenue of JD.COM Logistics has maintained a year-on-year growth of more than 50% for many quarters. Referring to the improvement of the overall valuation of JD.COM Group by the listing of JD.COM Health, the listing of JD.COM Logistics may push the market value of JD.COM to another level.</p><p><b>Meituan stock price or flying with innovative business losses</b></p><p>If the trend in 2019 is consistent, Meituan in 2020 is still the fastest-soaring giant among Chinese Internet companies, with its market value rising by 170% a year. After the anti-monopoly storm and the short fluctuation of the stock price, Meituan's share price at the beginning of 2021 was unbreakable, increasing by 43% in just 20 days, and its market value exceeded HK$2.3 trillion.</p><p>Getting rid of the impact of the epidemic, highly stable main business income, and the imagination brought to the market by innovative businesses such as community group buying, Meituan is still the local Internet company most favored by the secondary market. However, as summarized before, the current share price of Meituan contains a certain extent of ahead-of-schedule expectations of the market. Once the performance fluctuates, its share price sensitivity will be greatly enhanced, which requires Meituan to balance the relationship between innovative business investment and profit in the future.</p><p>Community group buying is undoubtedly the most concerned business of the US Mission at present. Since entering the game in July 2020, the US Mission has full of stamina. According to a number of community group buying practitioners, 36 Krypton revealed that in the first week of the new year, the national average daily order volume of Meituan has reached 20 million, becoming the first in the industry, and it has successively overtaken the daily order volume of Duoduo grocery buying in Wuhan and Jiangxi.</p><p>For the newly entered market, Meituan prefers to continue to rely on high-pressure subsidies to compete for the market. At present, in South China and Central China, the average price of Meituan prefers to buy food is far lower than that of Duoduo (about 4 or 5 pieces). In relatively mature markets, Meituan has not only paid attention to the single quantity and repurchase rate, but gross profit has also become a new assessment index in 2021.</p><p>Especially on the performance side, in the past few months, Meituan has continued to reduce costs through standardized management. A franchisee of Meituan Preferred Grid Warehouse in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai revealed to 36Kr that in order to optimize the operation flow of grid warehouse, Meituan will ask its grid warehouse to add cameras, monitor them in real time, digitize each process, and make refined adjustments through data operation; In addition, the US Mission prefers to send headquarters personnel to the station one after another to keep an eye on the operation process.</p><p>The latest news is that Meituan Preferred has planned to prepare the first batch of offline direct stores in Hangzhou. On the intranet of the US Mission, there are already recruitment posts for Hangzhou store staff. However, according to people familiar with the matter, \"the early stage is just an attempt, and it is uncertain whether it will be opened on a large scale in 2021.\"</p><p>In Q3 2020, Meituan lost 2.029 billion yuan in innovative business, an increase of 68.8% year-on-year. Considering that the community group buying business has now become a battlefield for military strategists, the US Mission may still need to burn money to build a moat, and it is urgent to maintain the profit level in its main business.</p><p>Fortunately, the main business of Meituan is stable enough, especially the take-out business, which has started from traffic to profit. In Q2 and Q3 2020, the operating profit of Meituan Food Delivery was 1.253 billion yuan and 768 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>However, the hidden worry is that the price of this profit is the continuous improvement of commissions and advertising business, and behind it is the squeeze of merchants. At the beginning of last year, Guangdong Catering Association jointly shouted to the US Mission, demanding a reduction in the commission ratio, which was the outbreak of conflicts intensified in the special market.</p><p>Under the anti-monopoly sentiment, forcing merchants to \"choose one of the two\" may affect Meituan's control over merchants in the future, and the resulting instability of commission and advertising revenue will also affect Meituan's profit prospects. However, from the current point of view, this impact is still minimal, and \"choose one\" still exists widely. Judging from the stock price, the secondary market has not shown excessive panic about the impact of antitrust on the US Mission.</p><p>Another business to look forward to is bike-sharing. For Meituan, this is the only innovative business with a single quantity of tens of millions, which is of great help to enhance the activity of Meituan Dianping App and realize cross-selling of various businesses. At the same time, the end of the bicycle track war also gave Meituan the opportunity to raise the unit price and run it as a normal business. In October last year, the daily order volume of Meituan bicycles exceeded 17 million.</p><p>How to maintain the profit level in the relatively certain main business, stand out as soon as possible in the highly uncertain innovative business, and occupy the market share will determine the trend of Meituan's stock price in the next year.</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ali, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAli, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 12:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the past 2020, times were inevitably marked and changed by the global spread of COVID-19, and in the consumer sphere, this change was particularly pronounced, with anti-consumerism discussions rampant for a while. The data of total retail sales of consumer goods and consumer confidence index in China all expose the uncertainty of the market environment.</p><p>However, a series of cold data is far from sketching the whole picture of the consumption field in the post-epidemic era. In fact, destruction and reconstruction are happening simultaneously.</p><p>Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>A number of e-commerce platforms such as Meituan and Meituan were hit by the epidemic, but as soon as the horn of \"stimulating domestic demand\" sounded, it was still these giant companies who enjoyed dividends.</p><p>Not counting the huge Ali, Pinduoduo, Meituan and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>In the past year, the share price has increased by more than 100%, and the market value has exceeded 100 billion dollars, which is extremely rare in any field. On the premise that the penetration rate of online physical retail and life services in the whole market is only 20%, e-commerce platforms have proved that their growth space is still broad.</p><p>As we enter 2021, there is no sign that this market trend will be reversed in the short term, the policy environment of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption will not waver, and the digital penetration rate in all fields is also slowly but firmly increasing.</p><p>But we can see that the era of relying on huge volume to enjoy dividends is also changing. After the State Administration for Market Regulation issued three \"anti-monopoly\" tickets in a row, the era of Internet anti-monopoly officially opened in the second half of 2020.</p><p>More than one industry insider said that 2021 will be a 10-year turning point in China's Internet antitrust history. \"For giants, 2021 will be a year of injury.\" Fang Xingdong, founder of Internet Lab, said in an interview with the media that the era of laissez-faire has ended, and China's Internet has officially entered a new era of rebuilding norms and order, which is a historic turn.</p><p>To be sure, Ali and Meituan will suffer greater damage to their interests in this anti-monopoly curtain, while JD.COM and Pinduoduo at the other end will enjoy the power of policies and struggle to catch up. However, no one can be sure how strictly antitrust will be enforced and how broad it will be. For e-commerce platforms, instead of being afraid of uncertainty, it is better to seize the opportunity and consolidate their advantages in certain things.</p><p>The sinking market is still the fat favored by all e-commerce platforms. The \"shopping war\" launched in the middle of last year will undoubtedly become more intense in 2021. For the huge companies, this bears the major mission of the \"second growth curve\", and no one is willing to lose easily in this war of attrition;</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of younger consumption has become very obvious, and the post-90s and post-00s have gradually become the main consumers. The pursuit of beauty and quality of life runs through the younger generation. Specifically, a number of potential companies have been born in beauty, skin care and food and beverage categories, which will still promote the rise of market sentiment in disguise and benefit the e-commerce platform.</p><p>In the medium and long term, the growth rate of China's GDP and total social retail sales continues to slow down, the economy is in the downward range, and the growth rate of e-commerce industry will definitely slow down. The traffic is peaking and the increment is difficult to find. In 2021, e-commerce platforms will fight more in the same battlefield, which will become the main theme in the next few years.</p><p><b>How does Ali get out of internal and external difficulties?</b></p><p>Although the e-commerce market still maintains steady growth, for Ali, 2020 is a rare difficult period since its founding, and it has encountered an unprecedented prestige crisis.</p><p>Externally, the impact of the pandemic, Ant's suspension of IPO, tightening anti-monopoly supervision and increasingly severe competition; Inside, weak growth and scandals involving several senior executives have followed.</p><p>Nowadays, the impact of the epidemic can almost be turned over, and the crisis of ants has come to an end with the introduction of the split plan. However, it is still unknown how long anti-monopoly supervision will last. This factor will not only cause Ali's share price to fluctuate in the short term, but also cause obstacles to business development to some extent.</p><p>Forced by the situation, Ali publicly expressed his position on e-commerce for the first time. At the merchant conference held in January 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fubuki, vice president of the group, once said that he did not support \"choose one of the two\", which means that Ali will not explicitly limit the flow of merchants. After the \"choose one\" restriction is liberalized, it may cause the outflow of merchant resources in the short term, but in the long run, the choice of merchants still depends on the comprehensive competition dimensions of each platform such as traffic cost, supply chain and logistics services.</p><p>In addition to the challenges brought by force majeure factors, the pressure from external competition has only increased. Next, I'm afraid it will be difficult for Ali to concentrate on dealing with competitors in a certain field as before.</p><p>At home, the sinking price war between Ali and Pinduoduo is still deadlocked. Taobao special edition, which formed a combination boxing with Juhuasuan, played \"1 yuan special price\" and directly supplied by C2M factory, was pushed to the front of the stage, led by Wang Hai, the person in charge of 1688, obviously to give full play to the advantages of B-end. As of November 11, 2020, the annual active buyers of Taobao Special Edition have exceeded 100 million. After assisting Taobao drainage, the special edition may change its name and surname to deal with the sinking battle with a more independent attitude.</p><p>The core of the content e-commerce war with Tik Tok and Kuaishou is the competition for users' time, coupled with the fact that users' shopping habits are shifting from active search to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Recommendation, the handmade page has been changed since the end of last year. The promotion of the strategic position of \"guess you like\" and the appearance of \"shopping\" mean that it will be fully aligned with the intelligent recommendation mode of information flow in communities such as Tik Tok and Xiaohongshu. With Tang Xing, who is good at content and technology, taking full control of Taobao, this trend will become more and more obvious this year.</p><p>The growth of Internet users is peaking day by day, which is undoubtedly revealed in Ali, a \"middle-aged giant\". From the data point of view, both from the perspective of user growth and GMV growth rate, it shows that Ali is facing the dilemma of weak growth.</p><p>According to the 2020 Q3 financial report, the growth of Ali's monthly active users is nearly 10 million lower than the market estimate. Although the Q4 financial report shows that the net increase of monthly active users in a single quarter exceeded 21 million, and the growth rate picked up, this is largely brought by the double 11 promotion, and whether it can be retained depends on the performance of the next quarter. In addition, GMV (i.e. turnover) grew by only 19% year-on-year, the lowest quarter except for the pandemic; Taobao's live GMV in 2020 was 400 billion yuan, which was also lower than the internal expectation of 500 billion yuan-the impact of Tik Tok Kuaishou overweight live e-commerce on Taobao began to gradually appear.</p><p>To overcome the difficult problem and increase the user time, the content of strength is one solution, and finding the traffic depression that still needs to be mined is another.</p><p>This is also the underlying reason why community group buying has become a battlefield for giants. Surprisingly, in the bustle, Ali seems particularly low-key. Except for the \"4 billion US dollars investment\" of slow people, his performance in other aspects is completely behind: it is still inconclusive which business department operates the community group purchase, and the performance target is unclear.</p><p>Chairman Zhang Yong's remarks at the 2020 Q3 financial report meeting can reveal some information: \"The competition for community group buying is fierce, but the market is still very early, and Ali has the best conditions, which can attract customers later.\" At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu also said that Taobao shopping, a new business incubated by core e-commerce, will not take the form of subsidies for exchanging markets to achieve the growth of users and single quantities.</p><p>combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>The information obtained from people close to Ali can be interpreted as that, from Ali's perspective, this round of price war and grabbing position war in pursuit of scale is not worth investing too much. It is more important to do a good job in quality expansion, such as upgrading the back-end supply chain and performance.</p><p>Growth or profit has become a multiple-choice question that Ali needs to face again. At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu made it clear that profit has never been Ali's first priority, and he will still invest heavily in innovative businesses in the future, including e-commerce seed business and others. It is foreseeable that for a long time, Taobao shopping, Taobao live broadcast, Taobao special edition, etc. will all get a lot of financial support. In addition, Ali also needs to give up some existing businesses that are difficult to support.</p><p>When enterprises are in difficulties internally and externally, the stability of organization is particularly important. However, since the beginning of this year, several executives, including Jiang Fan, have reported peach news and corruption scandals, and the core e-commerce companies, which have not made big moves for several years, have undergone substantial organizational adjustments. Ali also began to take the initiative to reflect on the defects in the construction of organizational culture: changing the once high-profile communication strategy, hiding the rank, canceling the weekly newspaper, canceling the 361 performance appraisal, and changing KPI to OKR. Recently, Zhang Yong's speech on the intranet to reflect on Zhongtai was also regarded as a precursor to Ali's splitting of Zhongtai.</p><p>After putting down some baggage, the big ship of Ali may be able to operate more flexibly.</p><p><b>What is the winning coupon geometry of Pinduoduo community group buying battle?</b></p><p>At the beginning of the new year, Pinduoduo appeared in the public view as a \"sweatshop\", and social events such as \"sudden death of employees\" and \"rights protection of employees\" that endangered corporate values and reputation occurred one after another.</p><p>As a result, Pinduoduo shares have experienced some ups and downs in the short term, but confidence in capital markets remains strong. However, from the business point of view, Pinduoduo, who originally won the title of CCTV Spring Festival Gala red envelope interactive partner, was finally replaced, losing an important promotion opportunity for payment business and grocery shopping business.</p><p>Grocery shopping business is regarded by Pinduoduo as an important weapon for whether it can continue to achieve the growth of users and turnover. In the early days of the competition, Pinduoduo grabbed a large market share with low prices and influence at the terminal, but it is still a long way from winning.</p><p>The community group buying industry is also developing in a more mature direction. From the perspective of financial indicators, giants are shifting from pursuing order volume and turnover to attaching importance to gross profit margin, and Pinduoduo is one of the representatives. After subsidies are reduced, if we want to maintain strong user growth, the difficulties will naturally become greater, and it becomes urgent to improve supply chain capability and performance efficiency.</p><p>From the perspective of expansion, following the successful experience of Xingsheng Optimization and opening a large number of offline stores may be one of the next development directions. At present, it seems that Meituan is testing the direct operation mode, while Didi has chosen the faster joining mode. There is no related action yet to buy more groceries.</p><p>More than solving the problem of growth, Pinduoduo is also planning for longer-term development. For example, how to handle the relationship with big brands, to what extent can we implement the new brand plan, and whether we can solve the hidden dangers of logistics.</p><p>Pinduoduo's current traffic is so large that it is difficult for big brands not to be tempted, but the tearing between the two sides also occurs frequently. SK2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Big names have also personally ended up maintaining their price systems. Seeing that the cooperation with brands either stays in some commodities or can only be indirectly cooperated by dealers, it is always superficial. Pinduoduo can only hope to attract some users who favor big names through the low-price temptation of \"tens of billions of subsidies\", which is not a long-term solution. As a result, Pinduoduo has also come up with the idea of incubating brands, but at present, the new brand plan focusing on C2M mode is still not effective at present.</p><p>Since last year, Pinduoduo has made a great breakthrough in the field of logistics, and has built Jitu Express with the number of e-commerce pieces second only to Ali's. Although it is still impossible to prove whether there is a capital binding between Pinduoduo and Jitu, the rapid development of Jitu can provide more bargaining chips for Pinduoduo to get rid of Ali's logistics system led by rookie. This year's Double Eleven and other big promotions will continue to stage the situation that the rabbit encounters the encirclement and suppression of Ali Department logistics.</p><p>In any case, how to maintain the growth of turnover and users, and really retain the non-sinking crowd, is still the main theme of Pinduoduo this year.</p><p><b>The new story of JD.COM retail, can logistics digital be successfully listed?</b></p><p>At least from the first three quarters of 2020, JD.COM's performance is quite good. After getting rid of nearly a year's stagnant growth, JD.COM's share price increased by 140% last year, second only to Meituan among Internet giants with a market value of over 100 billion dollars. Thanks to the long-term construction of logistics, JD.COM has become one of the few enterprises to benefit from the epidemic.</p><p>FMCG has become the fastest growing category in JD.COM in the past year. In Q2 and Q3 of 2020, the sales revenue of daily necessities increased by more than 35% year-on-year. However, to support the further rise of the stock price, JD.COM still needs to find new stories, and the newly established Jingxi business group has high hopes.</p><p>After Meituan, Didi and Pinduoduo plunged into the grocery buying war in the middle of last year, JD.COM, which arrived late, hurriedly completed the structural adjustment in November, packaged and reorganized the new channel, Jingxi and the newly established community group buying business, and planned to fight to the death in the sinking market.</p><p>At the end of December, Jingxi Pinpin opened in 14 cities at the same time. Earlier, they joined hands with the leader of community group buying-Xingsheng Preferred, and made a surprising strategic investment of 700 million US dollars in the latter, which made JD.COM, which was not optimistic, instantly have a place in the competitive situation.</p><p>Another news that surprised the outside world is that Liu Qiangdong, who has disappeared from the public for a long time, led the Jingxi business group this time. Many insiders in JD.COM told 36Kr that Liu Qiangdong's willingness to return to the front line of business has increased sharply in the past few months. \"I have repeatedly asked about the specific business situation and consulted employees' suggestions on company management in JD.COM's internal forums\", which is exciting news for the secondary market.</p><p>In this community group buying war, JD.COM's only advantage may be the accumulation of logistics, but considering JD.COM's execution and success rate in innovative business in the past few years, it is uncertain whether it can stand out in this battle of sinking market.</p><p>At the end of 2020, JD Retail also made a series of personnel and structure adjustments, focusing on the integration of third-party POP platform business. For JD.COM, in order to achieve \"accelerated growth\" in the four core indicators of transaction volume, revenue, users and profits \"in 2021, POP category still cannot be ignored, especially in the case of tightening anti-monopoly supervision. JD.COM, which has been suppressed by\" choosing one \"for a long time, may be able to make up lessons in clothing and other categories through this anti-monopoly investigation.</p><p>However, for other JD.COM sub-groups, the past few months have not been good. JD.COM Digital became a joint victim of the suspension of Ant's IPO, and the road to listing was suspended. Chen Shengqiang, the former CEO of Digital Science, also turned behind the scenes. In order to comply with financial regulatory requirements, Digital has continuously integrated AI and cloud services to further enhance its technological attributes.</p><p>For several financial giants, perhaps going public is no longer the first choice at present. At least after the ant incident, no one will want to be the first \"crab eater\". At least in 2021, it may not happen.</p><p>The resignation of Wang Zhenhui, CEO of JD.COM Logistics, also surprised the outside world. According to market news, JD Logistics has selected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Leading the Hong Kong IPO, the company may be valued at about US$40 billion, and plans to go public in the second or third quarter of 2021.</p><p>The revenue of JD.COM Logistics has maintained a year-on-year growth of more than 50% for many quarters. Referring to the improvement of the overall valuation of JD.COM Group by the listing of JD.COM Health, the listing of JD.COM Logistics may push the market value of JD.COM to another level.</p><p><b>Meituan stock price or flying with innovative business losses</b></p><p>If the trend in 2019 is consistent, Meituan in 2020 is still the fastest-soaring giant among Chinese Internet companies, with its market value rising by 170% a year. After the anti-monopoly storm and the short fluctuation of the stock price, Meituan's share price at the beginning of 2021 was unbreakable, increasing by 43% in just 20 days, and its market value exceeded HK$2.3 trillion.</p><p>Getting rid of the impact of the epidemic, highly stable main business income, and the imagination brought to the market by innovative businesses such as community group buying, Meituan is still the local Internet company most favored by the secondary market. However, as summarized before, the current share price of Meituan contains a certain extent of ahead-of-schedule expectations of the market. Once the performance fluctuates, its share price sensitivity will be greatly enhanced, which requires Meituan to balance the relationship between innovative business investment and profit in the future.</p><p>Community group buying is undoubtedly the most concerned business of the US Mission at present. Since entering the game in July 2020, the US Mission has full of stamina. According to a number of community group buying practitioners, 36 Krypton revealed that in the first week of the new year, the national average daily order volume of Meituan has reached 20 million, becoming the first in the industry, and it has successively overtaken the daily order volume of Duoduo grocery buying in Wuhan and Jiangxi.</p><p>For the newly entered market, Meituan prefers to continue to rely on high-pressure subsidies to compete for the market. At present, in South China and Central China, the average price of Meituan prefers to buy food is far lower than that of Duoduo (about 4 or 5 pieces). In relatively mature markets, Meituan has not only paid attention to the single quantity and repurchase rate, but gross profit has also become a new assessment index in 2021.</p><p>Especially on the performance side, in the past few months, Meituan has continued to reduce costs through standardized management. A franchisee of Meituan Preferred Grid Warehouse in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai revealed to 36Kr that in order to optimize the operation flow of grid warehouse, Meituan will ask its grid warehouse to add cameras, monitor them in real time, digitize each process, and make refined adjustments through data operation; In addition, the US Mission prefers to send headquarters personnel to the station one after another to keep an eye on the operation process.</p><p>The latest news is that Meituan Preferred has planned to prepare the first batch of offline direct stores in Hangzhou. On the intranet of the US Mission, there are already recruitment posts for Hangzhou store staff. However, according to people familiar with the matter, \"the early stage is just an attempt, and it is uncertain whether it will be opened on a large scale in 2021.\"</p><p>In Q3 2020, Meituan lost 2.029 billion yuan in innovative business, an increase of 68.8% year-on-year. Considering that the community group buying business has now become a battlefield for military strategists, the US Mission may still need to burn money to build a moat, and it is urgent to maintain the profit level in its main business.</p><p>Fortunately, the main business of Meituan is stable enough, especially the take-out business, which has started from traffic to profit. In Q2 and Q3 2020, the operating profit of Meituan Food Delivery was 1.253 billion yuan and 768 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>However, the hidden worry is that the price of this profit is the continuous improvement of commissions and advertising business, and behind it is the squeeze of merchants. At the beginning of last year, Guangdong Catering Association jointly shouted to the US Mission, demanding a reduction in the commission ratio, which was the outbreak of conflicts intensified in the special market.</p><p>Under the anti-monopoly sentiment, forcing merchants to \"choose one of the two\" may affect Meituan's control over merchants in the future, and the resulting instability of commission and advertising revenue will also affect Meituan's profit prospects. However, from the current point of view, this impact is still minimal, and \"choose one\" still exists widely. Judging from the stock price, the secondary market has not shown excessive panic about the impact of antitrust on the US Mission.</p><p>Another business to look forward to is bike-sharing. For Meituan, this is the only innovative business with a single quantity of tens of millions, which is of great help to enhance the activity of Meituan Dianping App and realize cross-selling of various businesses. At the same time, the end of the bicycle track war also gave Meituan the opportunity to raise the unit price and run it as a normal business. In October last year, the daily order volume of Meituan bicycles exceeded 17 million.</p><p>How to maintain the profit level in the relatively certain main business, stand out as soon as possible in the highly uncertain innovative business, and occupy the market share will determine the trend of Meituan's stock price in the next year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/E9OgvUb6VvBZT1ZHhKijWQ\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","03690":"美团-W","09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/E9OgvUb6VvBZT1ZHhKijWQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176177637","content_text":"过去的2020年，时代不可避免地被全球蔓延的新冠疫情标记和改变，在消费领域，这种改变尤为明显，反消费主义的讨论一时甚嚣尘上。全国社会消费品零售总额、消费者信心指数等数据无不暴露出市场大环境的不确定性。但是，一系列冰冷的数据远远无法勾画出后疫情时代消费领域的全貌，事实上，破坏、重建正在同步发生。阿里、拼多多、美团等一众电商平台遭遇疫情打击，但“拉动内需”的号角一吹响，坐享红利的仍是这些巨头公司。不算体量巨大的阿里，拼多多、美团和京东过去一年的股价涨幅均超过了100%，且市值均超过了千亿美金，这在任何领域都极其罕见。在线上实物零售及生活服务在整个大盘的渗透率只有20%的前提下，电商平台们证明了自己的增长空间仍然广阔。迈入2021年，没有迹象显示这一市场趋势会短期内遭到逆转，扩大内需、提振消费的政策大环境也不会动摇，全领域的数字化渗透率亦在缓慢而坚定地提高。但我们能看到，依靠巨大体量享尽红利的时代也正在发生变化。在市场监管总局连续发出三张“反垄断”罚单后，互联网反垄断的时代在2020年下半年正式开启。不止一位业内人士称，2021年会是中国互联网反垄断史上以10年计的大转折之年。“于巨头而言，2021年会是伤筋动骨的一年。”互联网实验室创始人方兴东在接受媒体采访时表示，自由放任时代结束，中国互联网正式进入重建规范、重构秩序的新时代，这是历史性的转向。可以肯定的是，阿里和美团将在这场反垄断大幕中，遭受更大的利益损害，而另一端的京东和拼多多或将享受政策之力，奋力追赶。但反垄断将执行多严格，涉及多广泛，无人可以确定。对电商平台来说，与其在不确定性中担惊受怕，不如在确定的事情上抓紧机会，巩固优势。下沉市场仍是那块被所有电商平台都垂青的肥肉，从去年年中展开的“买菜大战”毫无疑问将在2021年更加激烈，对于体量庞大的各家来说，这承担着“第二增长曲线”的重大使命，谁都不愿意在这场消耗战中轻易败下阵来；另一方面，消费年轻化趋势已非常明显，90后、00后逐渐成为主力消费人群。对于美和生活品质的相关追求贯穿年轻一代，具体到品类来说，美妆护肤类、食品饮料类都诞生了多家潜力公司，这变相仍会推动市场情绪的高涨，利好电商平台。中长期来看，中国GDP、社会零售总额增速持续放缓，经济正处在下行区间，电商行业增速肯定会放缓。流量见顶、增量难寻，2021年电商平台们将更多地在同一战场厮杀，这将成为未来几年的主旋律。阿里如何走出内外交困？尽管电商大盘仍保持着稳定增长，但对阿里而言，2020是其创业以来罕见的困顿时期，并遭遇了前所未有的声望危机。在外，疫情冲击、蚂蚁暂缓IPO、反垄断监管趋严、竞争局势日趋严峻；在内，增长乏力、数位高管的丑闻等问题接踵而至。如今，疫情的影响几乎可以翻篇，蚂蚁的危机随着拆分方案的出台暂告一段落。不过，反垄断监管还将持续多少时日仍未可知，这一因素不仅导致阿里股价在短期内震荡，还将一定程度造成业务发展上的障碍。受形势所迫，阿里首次公开对电商“二选一”表态。2021年1月举办的商家大会上，阿里巴巴集团副总裁吹雪曾表示不支持“二选一”，这意味着阿里不会明着对商家限流。“二选一”限制放开后，短期或造成商户资源外流，但长远看，商家的选择仍然要看各平台的流量成本、供应链、物流服务等综合竞争维度。除了不可抗力因素带来的挑战，来自外部竞争的压力也只增不减，接下来，阿里恐怕很难如以往那般，专心对付某一个领域的竞争对手。电商主场，阿里与拼多多的下沉价格战依然胶着。与聚划算等形成组合拳、打出“1元特价”和C2M工厂直供的淘宝特价版被推向台前，由1688负责人汪海主导，显然是要发挥B端优势。截至2020年11月11日，淘宝特价版的年度活跃买家已突破1亿人。在辅助淘宝引流后，特价版或将更名换姓，以更独立的姿态，应对下沉之战。与抖音和快手的内容电商大战，核心是对用户时长的争夺，再加上用户的购物习惯正从主动搜索转向智能化推荐，手淘页面自去年底起改头换面，“猜你喜欢”战略地位的提升、“逛逛”的出现，意味着其将全面向抖音、小红书等社区的信息流智能推荐模式看齐，而随着擅长内容和技术的汤兴全面掌管淘宝，这个趋势在今年将愈发明显。互联网用户的增长正日趋见顶，这一点在“中年巨头”阿里身上显露无疑。从数据来看，无论从用户增长还是GMV增速来看，都显示着阿里正面临增长乏力的困境。2020年Q3财报显示，阿里月活用户的增长低于市场预估近1000万。虽然Q4财报显示，月活用户单季净增超过2100万，增速回暖，但这很大程度是双11大促带来的，能否留存还需要看下个季度的表现。此外，GMV（即成交额）同比增速仅为19%，是除疫情外最低的一个季度；淘宝直播2020年全年GMV为4000亿元，也低于内部预期的5000亿元——抖音快手加码直播电商对于淘宝的冲击，开始逐渐显现。若要攻破难题，增加用户时长，发力内容是一个解决方案，寻找仍待开采的流量洼地是另一个。这也是社区团购成为巨头必争之地的底层原因。令人意外的是，在一片热闹中，阿里却显得格外低调，除了慢人一拍的“40亿美元投入”，在其他方面的表现上全面落后：社区团购由哪个业务部门操盘仍无定论、业绩目标也不明确。董事长张勇在2020年Q3财报会上的一席话能透露出些许信息：“社区团购竞争白热化，但市场还非常早期，阿里条件最好，之后能把客户吸引过来。”在2020年Q4财报会上，CFO卫武也表示，核心电商孵化的新业务淘宝买菜将不会采取补贴换市场的形式来实现用户和单量的增长。结合36氪从接近阿里的人士处获取的信息，可以解读为，在阿里视角，这轮为了追求规模而打出的价格战和抢点位战，并不值得投入太多，先做好质量的扩张如提升后端的供应链和履约才更要紧。要增长还是要利润，成了阿里需要重新面对的选择题。2020年Q4财报会上，CFO卫武明确表示，利润从不是阿里的第一优先选择，未来仍将大量投资创新业务，包括电商种子业务和其他。可以预见，在很长一段时间内，淘宝买菜、淘宝直播、淘宝特价版等都将获得大量的资金支持。此外，对于已有的难以扶持的部分业务，阿里也需要断舍离一番。企业处于内外交困之际，组织的稳定性显得尤为重要。然而，今年以来，包括蒋凡在内的数位高管传出的桃色新闻和贪腐丑闻，数年未大动的核心电商因此经历了较大幅度的组织调整。阿里也开始主动反思组织文化建设上存在的缺陷：改变曾经高调的传播策略、隐藏职级、取消周报、取消361绩效考核、改KPI为OKR，近期张勇在内网的一次反思中台的演讲也被视作阿里将拆分中台的前兆。放下一些包袱后，阿里这艘大船或许能运转得更为灵活。拼多多社区团购之战胜券几何？新年开局，拼多多是以“血汗工厂”的面貌出现在大众视野里，“员工猝死”、“员工维权”等危及企业价值观和声望的社会性事件接连发生。拼多多的股价因此在短期内经历一番起伏，不过，资本市场对其信心仍然十分强劲。但从业务角度来看，原本拿下央视春晚红包互动合作伙伴头衔的拼多多，最终被替换，失去了给支付业务和买菜业务的一次重要推广机会。买菜业务被拼多多视为能否持续实现用户和成交额增长重要武器。在竞争早期，拼多多凭借低价和在终端的影响力，抢到了较大的市场份额，不过，距离其取得胜利还有很长的路。社区团购行业也在向更成熟的方向发展。从财务指标上来看，巨头们正从追求订单量和成交额等转向看重毛利率，拼多多是其中代表。补贴变少之后，要想保持强劲的用户增长，困难自然会变大，提高供应链能力和履约效率变得紧迫起来。从扩张层面来看，效仿兴盛优选曾经的成功经验，开出大量线下门店或将是接下来的发展方向之一，目前看来，美团在试水直营模式，而滴滴选择了速度更快的加盟模式。多多买菜目前还没有相关动作。不止要解决增长的问题，拼多多还在为更长远的发展谋划。例如如何处理好与大品牌的关系、能在多大程度上推行新品牌计划、能否解决物流隐患。拼多多如今的流量之大，大品牌很难不心动，但双方的撕扯也频繁发生，SK2、特斯拉等大牌也都曾亲自下场维护其价格体系，眼看和品牌的合作要么停留在部分商品入驻，要么只能通过经销商间接合作，总是浅尝辄止，拼多多只能寄望于通过“百亿补贴”打出的低价诱惑来吸引部分青睐大牌的用户，这非长久之计。由此，拼多多也萌生孵化品牌的想法，但目前来看，主打C2M模式的新品牌计划目前成效依然不大。自去年起，拼多多在物流领域有了较大的突破，用仅次于阿里的电商件数扶植起了极兔快递。虽然目前还无法证明拼多多与极兔之间是否存在资本绑定，但极兔的迅猛发展能为拼多多摆脱以菜鸟为首的阿里物流体系提供更多筹码。今年双十一等大促或将继续上演极兔遭遇阿里系物流围剿的局面。无论如何，如何保持成交额和用户的增长，并真正留住非下沉人群，仍然是拼多多今年的主旋律。京东零售的新故事，物流数科能否成功上市？至少从2020年的前三个季度看，京东的业绩表现是相当可以的。在摆脱了近一年的增长停滞后，京东股价在去年实现了140%的涨幅，在市值超1000亿美金的一众互联网巨头中，仅次于美团。得益于物流的长期建设，京东成了为数不多受益疫情的企业。大快消成为过去一年京东增长势头最快的品类，2020年的Q2和Q3，日用百货商品销售收入同比增长均超过了35%，但眼下要想支撑股价的进一步上扬，京东仍需找到新故事，最新组建的京喜事业群被寄予厚望。美团、滴滴、拼多多在去年年中纷纷扎入买菜大战后，姗姗来迟的京东在11月才匆匆完成架构调整，将新通路、京喜和新成立的社区团购业务等打包重组，打算在下沉市场展开殊死搏斗。12月底，京喜拼拼在14城同时开城。而在更早前，他们牵手了社区团购龙头——兴盛优选，令人意外的战略投资后者7亿美金，这让不被看好的京东，瞬间在竞争局势中有了一席之地。另一个让外界惊讶的消息是，此次统领京喜事业群的是消失在公众面前许久的刘强东，多位京东内部人士向36氪表示，刘强东重返业务一线的意愿在过去几个月内陡增，“已经多次在京东内部论坛上询问具体业务情况，咨询员工对公司管理的建议”，这对二级市场来说这是个令人振奋的消息。在这场社区团购大战中，京东唯一的优势可能是物流端的积累，但考虑过去几年京东在创新业务上的执行力和成功率，能否在这场下沉市场的战斗中脱颖而出并不确定。2020年终，京东零售也进行了一系列的人员和架构调整，重点在于整合第三方的POP平台业务。对于京东来说，要在2021年实现“交易额、收入、用户和利润四大核心指标上”的“加速增长”，POP品类仍然不容忽视，尤其是在反垄断监管趋严的情况下，长期遭受“二选一”打压的京东，或许能借这次反垄断调查，在服饰等品类上抓紧补课。不过对于其他京东子集团，过去几个月并不好受。京东数科成为了蚂蚁IPO暂缓事件的连带受害者，上市之路就此暂停，数科原CEO陈生强也转至幕后。为了符合金融监管要求，数科连续整合了AI和云业务，进一步增强科技属性。对于几家金融巨头来说，眼下或许上市已经不再是第一选择，至少在蚂蚁事件之后，没有人会想成为第一个“吃螃蟹的人”，至少在2021年，可能不太会发生。京东物流CEO王振辉的辞职也让外界倍感意外。根据市场消息，京东物流已挑选美国银行和高盛牵头经办香港IPO事宜，公司估值可能达约400亿美元，并计划在2021年第二季度或第三季度上市。京东物流收入已经保持了多个季度50%以上的同比增长，参考京东健康上市对京东集团整体估值的提升，京东物流的上市或许会将京东市值再推一个台阶。美团股价或与创新业务亏损齐飞如2019年的走势一致，2020年的美团仍然是中国互联网公司中股价蹿升最快的巨头，市值一年大涨170%。在遭遇反垄断风波，股价短暂波动后，2021开年的美团股价势如破竹，短短20天增幅43%，市值超23000亿港币。摆脱疫情影响，高度稳定的主营业务收入，叠加社区团购等创新业务带给市场的想象力，美团仍是最被二级市场看好的本土互联网公司。但还是之前总结的，当前美团股价包含市场一定程度的超前预期，一旦业绩出现波动，其股价敏感度将大大增强，这需要美团在未来平衡好创新业务投入与利润之间的关系。社区团购无疑是美团当前最受外界关注的业务，自2020年7月入局以来，美团优选后劲十足。据多位社区团购从业者向36氪透露，新年第一周，美团优选的全国日均订单量已经达到2000万，成为行业第一，并在武汉和江西先后完成了对多多买菜日单量的反超。对于新近进入的市场美团优选继续靠高压补贴来争夺市场，目前在华南、华中一带，美团优选的件均价已远低于多多买菜（大概在4、5块上下），而在相对成熟的市场，美团已不仅仅关注单量和复购率，毛利也成为了2021年新的考核指标。尤其在履约端，过去几个月美团在持续通过规范管理来降低成本。一位江浙沪区域的美团优选网格仓加盟商向36氪透露，为了优化网格仓作业流程，美团会要求旗下的网格仓加入摄像头，实时监控，把每个流程数据化，通过数据运营再做精细化调整；另外美团优选陆续派总部人员前往驻点，紧盯操作流程。最新的消息是，美团优选已经计划在杭州筹备首批线下直营店。在美团内网上，已经有杭州门店人员的招聘帖。不过据知情人士透露，“前期只是尝试，2021年是否会大范围开设并不确定。”2020年Q3，美团在创新业务上亏损了20.29亿元，同比扩大68.8%。考虑到社区团购业务如今成了兵家必争之地，美团或仍需烧钱来高筑护城河，也急需要在主营业务上保持住利润水平。不过好在，美团的主营业务足够稳定，尤其是外卖业务，已经从流量担当开始成为盈利担当。2020年Q2和Q3，美团餐饮外卖的经营利润分别为12.53亿元和7.68亿元。但隐忧的地方是，这一利润代价是佣金和广告业务不断提高，背后是对商家的压榨。去年年初，广东餐饮协会联名喊话美团，要求降低佣金比例，就是矛盾激化在特殊行情下的爆发。在反垄断情绪下，逼迫商家“二选一”或许将在未来影响美团对于商家的控制，由此带来的佣金和广告收入的不稳定性也将影响美团的利润前景。不过从目前来看，这一影响还微乎其微，“二选一”仍广泛存在。 从股价行情看，二级市场对于反垄断之于美团的影响也并未展现出过度持久的恐慌。另一个值得期待的业务是共享单车。对美团来说，这是创新业务中唯二单量在千万级别的，对于提升美团点评App活跃度，进而实现各个业务的交叉销售有极大帮助。同时，单车赛道大战落幕也使得美团有机会提升单价，把它作为一个正常的生意来运转，去年10月，美团单车的日订单量已经突破1700万单。如何在相对确定性的主营业务中保持住利润水平，在高度不确定性的创新业务中尽快脱颖而出，占据市场份额，决定美团未来一年股价走向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"09618":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388452346,"gmtCreate":1613088443285,"gmtModify":1704878290116,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GG","listText":"GG","text":"GG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388452346","repostId":"1138841526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138841526","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613053269,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138841526?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-11 22:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Some Industrial Hemp Stocks Lower Premarket, Tilray Drops Over 12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138841526","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"部分工业大麻股盘前走低，Tilray跌超12%，Aphria跌超6%，Veru跌约5%，奥罗拉大麻公司跌近1%。","content":"<p>Some industrial hemp stocks were lower in the premarket, with Tilray down more than 12%, Aphria down more than 6%, Veru down about 5%, and Aurora Hemp down nearly 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e0e9875f710b7daf2656b71d12e0d6\" tg-width=\"288\" tg-height=\"194\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some Industrial Hemp Stocks Lower Premarket, Tilray Drops Over 12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome Industrial Hemp Stocks Lower Premarket, Tilray Drops Over 12%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-11 22:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some industrial hemp stocks were lower in the premarket, with Tilray down more than 12%, Aphria down more than 6%, Veru down about 5%, and Aurora Hemp down nearly 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e0e9875f710b7daf2656b71d12e0d6\" tg-width=\"288\" tg-height=\"194\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ed81b1e72df2f2f0f21497fe08eaed","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138841526","content_text":"部分工业大麻股盘前走低，Tilray跌超12%，Aphria跌超6%，Veru跌约5%，奥罗拉大麻公司跌近1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":104022344,"gmtCreate":1620346467988,"gmtModify":1704342233480,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a>?","text":"$Square, Inc(SQ)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104022344","repostId":"2133766175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133766175","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620332100,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2133766175?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 04:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Square turns around year-over-year on $5.057 billion in Q1 revenue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133766175","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月7日，移动支付公司$Square$美股盘后公布了2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Square第一季度总净营收为50.57亿美元，与去年同期的13.81亿美元相比增长266%；不计入比特币带来的收入，Square第一季度总净营收为15.5亿美元，与去年同期相比增长44%；Square第一季度净利润为3900万美元，相比之下去年同期的净亏损为1.06亿美元。Square第一季度营收和调整后每股收益均超出华尔街分析师预期，推动其盘后股价上涨超2%。Square第一季度调整后EBITDA为2.36亿美元，去年同期为900万美元。","content":"<p>On May 7, Mobile Payments Inc.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>U.S. stocks reported first-quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $5.057 billion, an increase of 266% compared with $1.381 billion in the same period last year; Excluding revenue from Bitcoin, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $1.55 billion, an increase of 44% compared with the same period last year; Square posted net income of $39 million in the first quarter, compared to a net loss of $106 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, pushing its shares up more than 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/501138f7d493a32169d49cd04b543fb7\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Results:</b></p><p>In the fiscal quarter ended March 31, Square posted net income of $39 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.08, which was better than the same period last year. In the first quarter of fiscal 2020, Square had a net loss of $106 million or a diluted loss per share of $0.24. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Square's adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.41 in the first quarter, compared to an adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.02 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that beat analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 36 analysts had expected Square to earn $0.16 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $5.057 billion, up 266% compared to $1.381 billion in the year-ago quarter, beating analyst expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, 31 analysts had expected Square's first-quarter revenue to reach $3.36 billion on average. Excluding revenue brought in by Bitcoin, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $1.55 billion, up 44% compared to the same period last year. Square's first-quarter gross profit was $964 million, up 79% compared to $539 million a year earlier.</p><p>Square's adjusted EBITDA, or profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $236 million in the first quarter, compared to $9 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's first-quarter operating profit was $67.7 million, compared to an operating loss of $90.3 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's total operating expenses were $896 million in the first quarter, compared to $629 million in the year-ago quarter. Among them, product development expenditure was $309 million, compared to $195 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $349 million, compared to $195 million in the year-ago quarter; General and administrative expenses were $196 million, compared to $129 million in the same period last year; Trading and loan losses of $20.4 million compared to $109 million in the year-ago quarter; The impairment loss of Bitcoin was US$19.9 million, compared with no such expense in the same period last year; Amortization expense of customer assets received was $1.46 million, compared to $0.9 million in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Results by business segment:</b></p><p>By business segment, Square's transaction-based revenue was $960 million in the first quarter, up 27% from $758 million in the same period last year; Gross profit for the segment was $435 million, up 49% compared to the same period last year. Square processed total payment transaction volume (GPV) of $33.1 billion in the first quarter, up 29% compared to the same period last year. Square's transaction-based gross profit as a percentage of GPV in the first quarter was 1.31%, up 17 basis points compared to the same period last year and up 8 basis points compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>Square's subscription and service-based revenue was $558 million in the first quarter, up 88% compared to $296 million in the year-ago quarter; Gross profit for the segment was $469 million, up 84% compared to the same period last year.</p><p>Square's hardware revenue was $28.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $20.7 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's Bitcoin revenue in the first quarter was $3.511 billion, compared to $306 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><b>Balance sheet information:</b></p><p>At the end of the first quarter of 2021, Square held $4.8 billion in available liquidity, including $4.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments in tradable debt securities, and $500 million in funds available from revolving credit facilities.</p><p>In February 2021, Square invested $170 million in Bitcoin due to the company's belief that cryptocurrency is a tool for economic empowerment, which is consistent with the company's goals. Square said the company wants to hold on to the investment for the long term.</p><p>In April 2021, Square completed the acquisition of a significant majority stake in TIDAL, a global music and entertainment platform, for a total consideration of $302 million.</p><p><b>Performance Outlook:</b></p><p>Looking ahead to the remainder of 2021, Square said in its earnings release that the company believes the two-year CAGR from 2019 to 2021 will help reflect potential gross profit trends across each ecosystem. In the second quarter of 2021, as the U.S. government began spending in April 2020, the company's Cash App is expected to achieve strong gross profit growth of 167% year-over-year. On the other hand, given that significant regional restrictions in Q2 2020 impacted in-person activities, resulting in a 9% year-over-year drop in gross profit for the quarter, in Q2 2021, the growth in gross profit for sellers is expected to benefit.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square turns around year-over-year on $5.057 billion in Q1 revenue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare turns around year-over-year on $5.057 billion in Q1 revenue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 04:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 7, Mobile Payments Inc.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>U.S. stocks reported first-quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $5.057 billion, an increase of 266% compared with $1.381 billion in the same period last year; Excluding revenue from Bitcoin, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $1.55 billion, an increase of 44% compared with the same period last year; Square posted net income of $39 million in the first quarter, compared to a net loss of $106 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, pushing its shares up more than 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/501138f7d493a32169d49cd04b543fb7\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Results:</b></p><p>In the fiscal quarter ended March 31, Square posted net income of $39 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.08, which was better than the same period last year. In the first quarter of fiscal 2020, Square had a net loss of $106 million or a diluted loss per share of $0.24. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Square's adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.41 in the first quarter, compared to an adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.02 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that beat analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 36 analysts had expected Square to earn $0.16 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $5.057 billion, up 266% compared to $1.381 billion in the year-ago quarter, beating analyst expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, 31 analysts had expected Square's first-quarter revenue to reach $3.36 billion on average. Excluding revenue brought in by Bitcoin, Square's total net revenue in the first quarter was $1.55 billion, up 44% compared to the same period last year. Square's first-quarter gross profit was $964 million, up 79% compared to $539 million a year earlier.</p><p>Square's adjusted EBITDA, or profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $236 million in the first quarter, compared to $9 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's first-quarter operating profit was $67.7 million, compared to an operating loss of $90.3 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's total operating expenses were $896 million in the first quarter, compared to $629 million in the year-ago quarter. Among them, product development expenditure was $309 million, compared to $195 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $349 million, compared to $195 million in the year-ago quarter; General and administrative expenses were $196 million, compared to $129 million in the same period last year; Trading and loan losses of $20.4 million compared to $109 million in the year-ago quarter; The impairment loss of Bitcoin was US$19.9 million, compared with no such expense in the same period last year; Amortization expense of customer assets received was $1.46 million, compared to $0.9 million in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Results by business segment:</b></p><p>By business segment, Square's transaction-based revenue was $960 million in the first quarter, up 27% from $758 million in the same period last year; Gross profit for the segment was $435 million, up 49% compared to the same period last year. Square processed total payment transaction volume (GPV) of $33.1 billion in the first quarter, up 29% compared to the same period last year. Square's transaction-based gross profit as a percentage of GPV in the first quarter was 1.31%, up 17 basis points compared to the same period last year and up 8 basis points compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>Square's subscription and service-based revenue was $558 million in the first quarter, up 88% compared to $296 million in the year-ago quarter; Gross profit for the segment was $469 million, up 84% compared to the same period last year.</p><p>Square's hardware revenue was $28.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $20.7 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>Square's Bitcoin revenue in the first quarter was $3.511 billion, compared to $306 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><b>Balance sheet information:</b></p><p>At the end of the first quarter of 2021, Square held $4.8 billion in available liquidity, including $4.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments in tradable debt securities, and $500 million in funds available from revolving credit facilities.</p><p>In February 2021, Square invested $170 million in Bitcoin due to the company's belief that cryptocurrency is a tool for economic empowerment, which is consistent with the company's goals. Square said the company wants to hold on to the investment for the long term.</p><p>In April 2021, Square completed the acquisition of a significant majority stake in TIDAL, a global music and entertainment platform, for a total consideration of $302 million.</p><p><b>Performance Outlook:</b></p><p>Looking ahead to the remainder of 2021, Square said in its earnings release that the company believes the two-year CAGR from 2019 to 2021 will help reflect potential gross profit trends across each ecosystem. In the second quarter of 2021, as the U.S. government began spending in April 2020, the company's Cash App is expected to achieve strong gross profit growth of 167% year-over-year. On the other hand, given that significant regional restrictions in Q2 2020 impacted in-person activities, resulting in a 9% year-over-year drop in gross profit for the quarter, in Q2 2021, the growth in gross profit for sellers is expected to benefit.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26431c0734b181fb6bbdfb2d00bdf07c","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133766175","content_text":"5月7日，移动支付公司Square美股盘后公布了2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Square第一季度总净营收为50.57亿美元，与去年同期的13.81亿美元相比增长266%；不计入比特币带来的收入，Square第一季度总净营收为15.5亿美元，与去年同期相比增长44%；Square第一季度净利润为3900万美元，相比之下去年同期的净亏损为1.06亿美元。Square第一季度营收和调整后每股收益均超出华尔街分析师预期，推动其盘后股价上涨超2%。主要业绩：在截至3月31日的这一财季，Square的净利润为3900万美元，每股摊薄收益为0.08美元，这一业绩好于去年同期。在2020财年第一季度，Square的净亏损为1.06亿美元，每股摊薄亏损为0.24美元。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Square第一季度调整后每股摊薄收益为0.41美元，相比之下去年同期的调整后每股摊薄亏损为0.02美元，这一业绩超出分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，36名分析师此前平均预期Square第一季度每股收益将达0.16美元。Square第一季度总净营收为50.57亿美元，与去年同期的13.81亿美元相比增长266%，超出分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，31名分析师此前平均预期Square第一季度营收将达33.6亿美元。不计入比特币带来的收入，Square第一季度总净营收为15.5亿美元，与去年同期相比增长44%。Square第一季度毛利润为9.64亿美元，与去年同期的5.39亿美元相比增长79%。Square第一季度调整后EBITDA（即未计入利息、税项、折旧及摊销的利润）为2.36亿美元，去年同期为900万美元。Square第一季度运营利润为6770万美元，相比之下去年同期的运营亏损为9030万美元。Square第一季度总运营支出为8.96亿美元，相比之下去年同期为6.29亿美元。其中，产品开发支出为3.09亿美元，相比之下去年同期为1.95亿美元；销售和营销支出为3.49亿美元，相比之下去年同期为1.95亿美元；总务和行政支出为1.96亿美元，相比之下去年同期为1.29亿美元；交易和贷款损失为2040万美元，相比之下去年同期为1.09亿美元；比特币减值损失为1990万美元，去年同期并无这项支出；已获得客户资产摊销支出为146万美元，相比之下去年同期为90万美元。按业务部门划分的业绩：按照业务部门划分，Square第一季度基于交易的营收为9.60亿美元，与去年同期的7.58亿美元相比增长27%；该部门的毛利润为4.35亿美元，与去年同期相比增长49%。Square在第一季度中处理的总支付交易量（GPV）为331亿美元，与去年同期相比增长29%。Square第一季度基于交易的毛利润在GPV中所占比例为1.31%，与去年同期相比上升17个基点，与上一季度相比上升8个基点。Square第一季度基于订阅和服务的营收为5.58亿美元，与去年同期的2.96亿美元相比增长88%；该部门的毛利润为4.69亿美元，与去年同期相比增长84%。Square第一季度硬件营收为2880万美元，相比之下去年同期为2070万美元。Square第一季度比特币营收为35.11亿美元，相比之下去年同期为3.06亿美元。资产负债表信息：截至2021年第一季度末，Square持有的可用流动资金为48亿美元，其中现金、现金等价物、限制性现金和可交易债务证券投资为43亿美元，可从循环信贷安排中提取的资金为5亿美元。2021年2月，Square在比特币上投资了1.7亿美元，原因是该公司相信加密货币是一种经济赋权的工具，而这与该公司的目标是一致的。Square表示，该公司希望长期持有这项投资。2021年4月，Square完成了对全球音乐和娱乐平台TIDAL的重大多数股权的收购交易，这项交易是总对价为3.02亿美元。业绩展望：Square在财报中表示，展望2021年剩余时间的前景，该公司相信，从2019年到2021年的两年复合年增长率将有助于反映每个生态系统的潜在毛利润趋势。在2021年第二季度，随着2020年4月美国政府开始支出，该公司旗下Cash App预计将可实现167%的毛利润同比强劲增长。另一方面，鉴于2020年第二季度中重大的地区限制措施影响了面对面的活动，导致该季度的毛利润同比下降9%，因此在2021年第二季度中，预计卖家毛利润的增长将会从中受益。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906026575,"gmtCreate":1659460353201,"gmtModify":1705980559564,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HKD\">$尚乘数科(HKD)$</a>mark","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HKD\">$尚乘数科(HKD)$</a>mark","text":"$尚乘数科(HKD)$mark","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d8e4b40419a6e519fb4de17d0367b16","width":"1125","height":"3738"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906026575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347729284,"gmtCreate":1618532099848,"gmtModify":1704712243835,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark 16 May","listText":"Mark 16 May","text":"Mark 16 May","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347729284","repostId":"347819806","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":347819806,"gmtCreate":1618483125505,"gmtModify":1704711519756,"author":{"id":"3558937605407666","authorId":"3558937605407666","name":"小虎投资狮城","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71787abf8925cc00babc5c74c39de37a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558937605407666","idStr":"3558937605407666"},"themes":[],"title":"新加坡航空3月旅客運輸量跌了91%","htmlText":"[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;哇在海外疫情還是太嚴重了[難過]&nbsp;[難過]&nbsp;[難過]&nbsp;國營的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$</a>&nbsp;還是運營41個國際航線，但絕大多數國家不允許外國旅客入境或讓它們隔離[弱]&nbsp;[心碎]&nbsp;新加坡航空是全球最國際化航空公司之一（國家沒有任何國內航線）[驚嚇]&nbsp;在疫情期間公司還是面臨偉大的挑戰[汗顏]&nbsp;現在公司的航班都是這樣[白眼]&nbsp;公司剛披露今年3月時：總旅客運輸量爲10萬，與去年同期跌了91%[憤怒]&nbsp;公司的披露說它覺得從今年7月開始國際航空行業情況會好了一些。本月已經有一點點改善[笑哭]&nbsp;2月新加坡航空的旅客運輸量爲6.8萬以及1月旅客運輸量爲7.8萬。慢慢來吧[捂臉]&nbsp;新加坡航空盤後披露該數據，不知道明天市場會有什麼反應。大家記住了新加坡政府是公司的最大的股東以及去年公司籌資幾十億美金，現金餘額還是足夠了等很長時間。今年公司也又以發行可轉換債券籌資幾十億美金。公司5月16日要披露Q1財報。大家開始祈禱啊[保佑]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[暗中觀察]&nbsp;有任何問題關於新加坡股票，歡迎各位隨時找小虎投資獅城[得意]&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$維珍銀河(SPCE)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;哇在海外疫情還是太嚴重了[難過]&nbsp;[難過]&nbsp;[難過]&nbsp;國營的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$</a>&nbsp;還是運營41個國際航線，但絕大多數國家不允許外國旅客入境或讓它們隔離[弱]&nbsp;[心碎]&nbsp;新加坡航空是全球最國際化航空公司之一（國家沒有任何國內航線）[驚嚇]&nbsp;在疫情期間公司還是面臨偉大的挑戰[汗顏]&nbsp;現在公司的航班都是這樣[白眼]&nbsp;公司剛披露今年3月時：總旅客運輸量爲10萬，與去年同期跌了91%[憤怒]&nbsp;公司的披露說它覺得從今年7月開始國際航空行業情況會好了一些。本月已經有一點點改善[笑哭]&nbsp;2月新加坡航空的旅客運輸量爲6.8萬以及1月旅客運輸量爲7.8萬。慢慢來吧[捂臉]&nbsp;新加坡航空盤後披露該數據，不知道明天市場會有什麼反應。大家記住了新加坡政府是公司的最大的股東以及去年公司籌資幾十億美金，現金餘額還是足夠了等很長時間。今年公司也又以發行可轉換債券籌資幾十億美金。公司5月16日要披露Q1財報。大家開始祈禱啊[保佑]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[暗中觀察]&nbsp;有任何問題關於新加坡股票，歡迎各位隨時找小虎投資獅城[得意]&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$維珍銀河(SPCE)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"[噴血] [噴血] [噴血] 哇在海外疫情還是太嚴重了[難過] [難過] [難過] 國營的$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$ 還是運營41個國際航線，但絕大多數國家不允許外國旅客入境或讓它們隔離[弱] [心碎] 新加坡航空是全球最國際化航空公司之一（國家沒有任何國內航線）[驚嚇] 在疫情期間公司還是面臨偉大的挑戰[汗顏] 現在公司的航班都是這樣[白眼] 公司剛披露今年3月時：總旅客運輸量爲10萬，與去年同期跌了91%[憤怒] 公司的披露說它覺得從今年7月開始國際航空行業情況會好了一些。本月已經有一點點改善[笑哭] 2月新加坡航空的旅客運輸量爲6.8萬以及1月旅客運輸量爲7.8萬。慢慢來吧[捂臉] 新加坡航空盤後披露該數據，不知道明天市場會有什麼反應。大家記住了新加坡政府是公司的最大的股東以及去年公司籌資幾十億美金，現金餘額還是足夠了等很長時間。今年公司也又以發行可轉換債券籌資幾十億美金。公司5月16日要披露Q1財報。大家開始祈禱啊[保佑] [笑哭] [暗中觀察] 有任何問題關於新加坡股票，歡迎各位隨時找小虎投資獅城[得意] $波音(BA)$ $維珍銀河(SPCE)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0237198f6642a2800c250fc50661d9e7","width":"492","height":"400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347819806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"content":"GG$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD (C6L. SI) $","text":"GG$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD (C6L. SI) $","html":"GG$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD (C6L. SI) $"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382844915,"gmtCreate":1613435677437,"gmtModify":1704880407356,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382844915","repostId":"1176177637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176177637","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613535611,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176177637?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 12:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ali, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176177637","media":"36氪","summary":"过去的2020年，时代不可避免地被全球蔓延的新冠疫情标记和改变，在消费领域，这种改变尤为明显，反消费主义的讨论一时甚嚣尘上。全国社会消费品零售总额、消费者信心指数等数据无不暴露出市场大环境的不确定性。","content":"<p>In the past 2020, times were inevitably marked and changed by the global spread of COVID-19, and in the consumer sphere, this change was particularly pronounced, with anti-consumerism discussions rampant for a while. The data of total retail sales of consumer goods and consumer confidence index in China all expose the uncertainty of the market environment.</p><p>However, a series of cold data is far from sketching the whole picture of the consumption field in the post-epidemic era. In fact, destruction and reconstruction are happening simultaneously.</p><p>Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>A number of e-commerce platforms such as Meituan and Meituan were hit by the epidemic, but as soon as the horn of \"stimulating domestic demand\" sounded, it was still these giant companies who enjoyed dividends.</p><p>Not counting the huge Ali, Pinduoduo, Meituan and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>In the past year, the share price has increased by more than 100%, and the market value has exceeded 100 billion dollars, which is extremely rare in any field. On the premise that the penetration rate of online physical retail and life services in the whole market is only 20%, e-commerce platforms have proved that their growth space is still broad.</p><p>As we enter 2021, there is no sign that this market trend will be reversed in the short term, the policy environment of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption will not waver, and the digital penetration rate in all fields is also slowly but firmly increasing.</p><p>But we can see that the era of relying on huge volume to enjoy dividends is also changing. After the State Administration for Market Regulation issued three \"anti-monopoly\" tickets in a row, the era of Internet anti-monopoly officially opened in the second half of 2020.</p><p>More than one industry insider said that 2021 will be a 10-year turning point in China's Internet antitrust history. \"For giants, 2021 will be a year of injury.\" Fang Xingdong, founder of Internet Lab, said in an interview with the media that the era of laissez-faire has ended, and China's Internet has officially entered a new era of rebuilding norms and order, which is a historic turn.</p><p>To be sure, Ali and Meituan will suffer greater damage to their interests in this anti-monopoly curtain, while JD.COM and Pinduoduo at the other end will enjoy the power of policies and struggle to catch up. However, no one can be sure how strictly antitrust will be enforced and how broad it will be. For e-commerce platforms, instead of being afraid of uncertainty, it is better to seize the opportunity and consolidate their advantages in certain things.</p><p>The sinking market is still the fat favored by all e-commerce platforms. The \"shopping war\" launched in the middle of last year will undoubtedly become more intense in 2021. For the huge companies, this bears the major mission of the \"second growth curve\", and no one is willing to lose easily in this war of attrition;</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of younger consumption has become very obvious, and the post-90s and post-00s have gradually become the main consumers. The pursuit of beauty and quality of life runs through the younger generation. Specifically, a number of potential companies have been born in beauty, skin care and food and beverage categories, which will still promote the rise of market sentiment in disguise and benefit the e-commerce platform.</p><p>In the medium and long term, the growth rate of China's GDP and total social retail sales continues to slow down, the economy is in the downward range, and the growth rate of e-commerce industry will definitely slow down. The traffic is peaking and the increment is difficult to find. In 2021, e-commerce platforms will fight more in the same battlefield, which will become the main theme in the next few years.</p><p><b>How does Ali get out of internal and external difficulties?</b></p><p>Although the e-commerce market still maintains steady growth, for Ali, 2020 is a rare difficult period since its founding, and it has encountered an unprecedented prestige crisis.</p><p>Externally, the impact of the pandemic, Ant's suspension of IPO, tightening anti-monopoly supervision and increasingly severe competition; Inside, weak growth and scandals involving several senior executives have followed.</p><p>Nowadays, the impact of the epidemic can almost be turned over, and the crisis of ants has come to an end with the introduction of the split plan. However, it is still unknown how long anti-monopoly supervision will last. This factor will not only cause Ali's share price to fluctuate in the short term, but also cause obstacles to business development to some extent.</p><p>Forced by the situation, Ali publicly expressed his position on e-commerce for the first time. At the merchant conference held in January 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fubuki, vice president of the group, once said that he did not support \"choose one of the two\", which means that Ali will not explicitly limit the flow of merchants. After the \"choose one\" restriction is liberalized, it may cause the outflow of merchant resources in the short term, but in the long run, the choice of merchants still depends on the comprehensive competition dimensions of each platform such as traffic cost, supply chain and logistics services.</p><p>In addition to the challenges brought by force majeure factors, the pressure from external competition has only increased. Next, I'm afraid it will be difficult for Ali to concentrate on dealing with competitors in a certain field as before.</p><p>At home, the sinking price war between Ali and Pinduoduo is still deadlocked. Taobao special edition, which formed a combination boxing with Juhuasuan, played \"1 yuan special price\" and directly supplied by C2M factory, was pushed to the front of the stage, led by Wang Hai, the person in charge of 1688, obviously to give full play to the advantages of B-end. As of November 11, 2020, the annual active buyers of Taobao Special Edition have exceeded 100 million. After assisting Taobao drainage, the special edition may change its name and surname to deal with the sinking battle with a more independent attitude.</p><p>The core of the content e-commerce war with Tik Tok and Kuaishou is the competition for users' time, coupled with the fact that users' shopping habits are shifting from active search to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Recommendation, the handmade page has been changed since the end of last year. The promotion of the strategic position of \"guess you like\" and the appearance of \"shopping\" mean that it will be fully aligned with the intelligent recommendation mode of information flow in communities such as Tik Tok and Xiaohongshu. With Tang Xing, who is good at content and technology, taking full control of Taobao, this trend will become more and more obvious this year.</p><p>The growth of Internet users is peaking day by day, which is undoubtedly revealed in Ali, a \"middle-aged giant\". From the data point of view, both from the perspective of user growth and GMV growth rate, it shows that Ali is facing the dilemma of weak growth.</p><p>According to the 2020 Q3 financial report, the growth of Ali's monthly active users is nearly 10 million lower than the market estimate. Although the Q4 financial report shows that the net increase of monthly active users in a single quarter exceeded 21 million, and the growth rate picked up, this is largely brought by the double 11 promotion, and whether it can be retained depends on the performance of the next quarter. In addition, GMV (i.e. turnover) grew by only 19% year-on-year, the lowest quarter except for the pandemic; Taobao's live GMV in 2020 was 400 billion yuan, which was also lower than the internal expectation of 500 billion yuan-the impact of Tik Tok Kuaishou overweight live e-commerce on Taobao began to gradually appear.</p><p>To overcome the difficult problem and increase the user time, the content of strength is one solution, and finding the traffic depression that still needs to be mined is another.</p><p>This is also the underlying reason why community group buying has become a battlefield for giants. Surprisingly, in the bustle, Ali seems particularly low-key. Except for the \"4 billion US dollars investment\" of slow people, his performance in other aspects is completely behind: it is still inconclusive which business department operates the community group purchase, and the performance target is unclear.</p><p>Chairman Zhang Yong's remarks at the 2020 Q3 financial report meeting can reveal some information: \"The competition for community group buying is fierce, but the market is still very early, and Ali has the best conditions, which can attract customers later.\" At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu also said that Taobao shopping, a new business incubated by core e-commerce, will not take the form of subsidies for exchanging markets to achieve the growth of users and single quantities.</p><p>combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>The information obtained from people close to Ali can be interpreted as that, from Ali's perspective, this round of price war and grabbing position war in pursuit of scale is not worth investing too much. It is more important to do a good job in quality expansion, such as upgrading the back-end supply chain and performance.</p><p>Growth or profit has become a multiple-choice question that Ali needs to face again. At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu made it clear that profit has never been Ali's first priority, and he will still invest heavily in innovative businesses in the future, including e-commerce seed business and others. It is foreseeable that for a long time, Taobao shopping, Taobao live broadcast, Taobao special edition, etc. will all get a lot of financial support. In addition, Ali also needs to give up some existing businesses that are difficult to support.</p><p>When enterprises are in difficulties internally and externally, the stability of organization is particularly important. However, since the beginning of this year, several executives, including Jiang Fan, have reported peach news and corruption scandals, and the core e-commerce companies, which have not made big moves for several years, have undergone substantial organizational adjustments. Ali also began to take the initiative to reflect on the defects in the construction of organizational culture: changing the once high-profile communication strategy, hiding the rank, canceling the weekly newspaper, canceling the 361 performance appraisal, and changing KPI to OKR. Recently, Zhang Yong's speech on the intranet to reflect on Zhongtai was also regarded as a precursor to Ali's splitting of Zhongtai.</p><p>After putting down some baggage, the big ship of Ali may be able to operate more flexibly.</p><p><b>What is the winning coupon geometry of Pinduoduo community group buying battle?</b></p><p>At the beginning of the new year, Pinduoduo appeared in the public view as a \"sweatshop\", and social events such as \"sudden death of employees\" and \"rights protection of employees\" that endangered corporate values and reputation occurred one after another.</p><p>As a result, Pinduoduo shares have experienced some ups and downs in the short term, but confidence in capital markets remains strong. However, from the business point of view, Pinduoduo, who originally won the title of CCTV Spring Festival Gala red envelope interactive partner, was finally replaced, losing an important promotion opportunity for payment business and grocery shopping business.</p><p>Grocery shopping business is regarded by Pinduoduo as an important weapon for whether it can continue to achieve the growth of users and turnover. In the early days of the competition, Pinduoduo grabbed a large market share with low prices and influence at the terminal, but it is still a long way from winning.</p><p>The community group buying industry is also developing in a more mature direction. From the perspective of financial indicators, giants are shifting from pursuing order volume and turnover to attaching importance to gross profit margin, and Pinduoduo is one of the representatives. After subsidies are reduced, if we want to maintain strong user growth, the difficulties will naturally become greater, and it becomes urgent to improve supply chain capability and performance efficiency.</p><p>From the perspective of expansion, following the successful experience of Xingsheng Optimization and opening a large number of offline stores may be one of the next development directions. At present, it seems that Meituan is testing the direct operation mode, while Didi has chosen the faster joining mode. There is no related action yet to buy more groceries.</p><p>More than solving the problem of growth, Pinduoduo is also planning for longer-term development. For example, how to handle the relationship with big brands, to what extent can we implement the new brand plan, and whether we can solve the hidden dangers of logistics.</p><p>Pinduoduo's current traffic is so large that it is difficult for big brands not to be tempted, but the tearing between the two sides also occurs frequently. SK2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Big names have also personally ended up maintaining their price systems. Seeing that the cooperation with brands either stays in some commodities or can only be indirectly cooperated by dealers, it is always superficial. Pinduoduo can only hope to attract some users who favor big names through the low-price temptation of \"tens of billions of subsidies\", which is not a long-term solution. As a result, Pinduoduo has also come up with the idea of incubating brands, but at present, the new brand plan focusing on C2M mode is still not effective at present.</p><p>Since last year, Pinduoduo has made a great breakthrough in the field of logistics, and has built Jitu Express with the number of e-commerce pieces second only to Ali's. Although it is still impossible to prove whether there is a capital binding between Pinduoduo and Jitu, the rapid development of Jitu can provide more bargaining chips for Pinduoduo to get rid of Ali's logistics system led by rookie. This year's Double Eleven and other big promotions will continue to stage the situation that the rabbit encounters the encirclement and suppression of Ali Department logistics.</p><p>In any case, how to maintain the growth of turnover and users, and really retain the non-sinking crowd, is still the main theme of Pinduoduo this year.</p><p><b>The new story of JD.COM retail, can logistics digital be successfully listed?</b></p><p>At least from the first three quarters of 2020, JD.COM's performance is quite good. After getting rid of nearly a year's stagnant growth, JD.COM's share price increased by 140% last year, second only to Meituan among Internet giants with a market value of over 100 billion dollars. Thanks to the long-term construction of logistics, JD.COM has become one of the few enterprises to benefit from the epidemic.</p><p>FMCG has become the fastest growing category in JD.COM in the past year. In Q2 and Q3 of 2020, the sales revenue of daily necessities increased by more than 35% year-on-year. However, to support the further rise of the stock price, JD.COM still needs to find new stories, and the newly established Jingxi business group has high hopes.</p><p>After Meituan, Didi and Pinduoduo plunged into the grocery buying war in the middle of last year, JD.COM, which arrived late, hurriedly completed the structural adjustment in November, packaged and reorganized the new channel, Jingxi and the newly established community group buying business, and planned to fight to the death in the sinking market.</p><p>At the end of December, Jingxi Pinpin opened in 14 cities at the same time. Earlier, they joined hands with the leader of community group buying-Xingsheng Preferred, and made a surprising strategic investment of 700 million US dollars in the latter, which made JD.COM, which was not optimistic, instantly have a place in the competitive situation.</p><p>Another news that surprised the outside world is that Liu Qiangdong, who has disappeared from the public for a long time, led the Jingxi business group this time. Many insiders in JD.COM told 36Kr that Liu Qiangdong's willingness to return to the front line of business has increased sharply in the past few months. \"I have repeatedly asked about the specific business situation and consulted employees' suggestions on company management in JD.COM's internal forums\", which is exciting news for the secondary market.</p><p>In this community group buying war, JD.COM's only advantage may be the accumulation of logistics, but considering JD.COM's execution and success rate in innovative business in the past few years, it is uncertain whether it can stand out in this battle of sinking market.</p><p>At the end of 2020, JD Retail also made a series of personnel and structure adjustments, focusing on the integration of third-party POP platform business. For JD.COM, in order to achieve \"accelerated growth\" in the four core indicators of transaction volume, revenue, users and profits \"in 2021, POP category still cannot be ignored, especially in the case of tightening anti-monopoly supervision. JD.COM, which has been suppressed by\" choosing one \"for a long time, may be able to make up lessons in clothing and other categories through this anti-monopoly investigation.</p><p>However, for other JD.COM sub-groups, the past few months have not been good. JD.COM Digital became a joint victim of the suspension of Ant's IPO, and the road to listing was suspended. Chen Shengqiang, the former CEO of Digital Science, also turned behind the scenes. In order to comply with financial regulatory requirements, Digital has continuously integrated AI and cloud services to further enhance its technological attributes.</p><p>For several financial giants, perhaps going public is no longer the first choice at present. At least after the ant incident, no one will want to be the first \"crab eater\". At least in 2021, it may not happen.</p><p>The resignation of Wang Zhenhui, CEO of JD.COM Logistics, also surprised the outside world. According to market news, JD Logistics has selected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Leading the Hong Kong IPO, the company may be valued at about US$40 billion, and plans to go public in the second or third quarter of 2021.</p><p>The revenue of JD.COM Logistics has maintained a year-on-year growth of more than 50% for many quarters. Referring to the improvement of the overall valuation of JD.COM Group by the listing of JD.COM Health, the listing of JD.COM Logistics may push the market value of JD.COM to another level.</p><p><b>Meituan stock price or flying with innovative business losses</b></p><p>If the trend in 2019 is consistent, Meituan in 2020 is still the fastest-soaring giant among Chinese Internet companies, with its market value rising by 170% a year. After the anti-monopoly storm and the short fluctuation of the stock price, Meituan's share price at the beginning of 2021 was unbreakable, increasing by 43% in just 20 days, and its market value exceeded HK$2.3 trillion.</p><p>Getting rid of the impact of the epidemic, highly stable main business income, and the imagination brought to the market by innovative businesses such as community group buying, Meituan is still the local Internet company most favored by the secondary market. However, as summarized before, the current share price of Meituan contains a certain extent of ahead-of-schedule expectations of the market. Once the performance fluctuates, its share price sensitivity will be greatly enhanced, which requires Meituan to balance the relationship between innovative business investment and profit in the future.</p><p>Community group buying is undoubtedly the most concerned business of the US Mission at present. Since entering the game in July 2020, the US Mission has full of stamina. According to a number of community group buying practitioners, 36 Krypton revealed that in the first week of the new year, the national average daily order volume of Meituan has reached 20 million, becoming the first in the industry, and it has successively overtaken the daily order volume of Duoduo grocery buying in Wuhan and Jiangxi.</p><p>For the newly entered market, Meituan prefers to continue to rely on high-pressure subsidies to compete for the market. At present, in South China and Central China, the average price of Meituan prefers to buy food is far lower than that of Duoduo (about 4 or 5 pieces). In relatively mature markets, Meituan has not only paid attention to the single quantity and repurchase rate, but gross profit has also become a new assessment index in 2021.</p><p>Especially on the performance side, in the past few months, Meituan has continued to reduce costs through standardized management. A franchisee of Meituan Preferred Grid Warehouse in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai revealed to 36Kr that in order to optimize the operation flow of grid warehouse, Meituan will ask its grid warehouse to add cameras, monitor them in real time, digitize each process, and make refined adjustments through data operation; In addition, the US Mission prefers to send headquarters personnel to the station one after another to keep an eye on the operation process.</p><p>The latest news is that Meituan Preferred has planned to prepare the first batch of offline direct stores in Hangzhou. On the intranet of the US Mission, there are already recruitment posts for Hangzhou store staff. However, according to people familiar with the matter, \"the early stage is just an attempt, and it is uncertain whether it will be opened on a large scale in 2021.\"</p><p>In Q3 2020, Meituan lost 2.029 billion yuan in innovative business, an increase of 68.8% year-on-year. Considering that the community group buying business has now become a battlefield for military strategists, the US Mission may still need to burn money to build a moat, and it is urgent to maintain the profit level in its main business.</p><p>Fortunately, the main business of Meituan is stable enough, especially the take-out business, which has started from traffic to profit. In Q2 and Q3 2020, the operating profit of Meituan Food Delivery was 1.253 billion yuan and 768 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>However, the hidden worry is that the price of this profit is the continuous improvement of commissions and advertising business, and behind it is the squeeze of merchants. At the beginning of last year, Guangdong Catering Association jointly shouted to the US Mission, demanding a reduction in the commission ratio, which was the outbreak of conflicts intensified in the special market.</p><p>Under the anti-monopoly sentiment, forcing merchants to \"choose one of the two\" may affect Meituan's control over merchants in the future, and the resulting instability of commission and advertising revenue will also affect Meituan's profit prospects. However, from the current point of view, this impact is still minimal, and \"choose one\" still exists widely. Judging from the stock price, the secondary market has not shown excessive panic about the impact of antitrust on the US Mission.</p><p>Another business to look forward to is bike-sharing. For Meituan, this is the only innovative business with a single quantity of tens of millions, which is of great help to enhance the activity of Meituan Dianping App and realize cross-selling of various businesses. At the same time, the end of the bicycle track war also gave Meituan the opportunity to raise the unit price and run it as a normal business. In October last year, the daily order volume of Meituan bicycles exceeded 17 million.</p><p>How to maintain the profit level in the relatively certain main business, stand out as soon as possible in the highly uncertain innovative business, and occupy the market share will determine the trend of Meituan's stock price in the next year.</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ali, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAli, JD.COM, Pinduoduo, Meituan: Hundreds of Billions of Dollar Giants Meet on a Narrow Road\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 12:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the past 2020, times were inevitably marked and changed by the global spread of COVID-19, and in the consumer sphere, this change was particularly pronounced, with anti-consumerism discussions rampant for a while. The data of total retail sales of consumer goods and consumer confidence index in China all expose the uncertainty of the market environment.</p><p>However, a series of cold data is far from sketching the whole picture of the consumption field in the post-epidemic era. In fact, destruction and reconstruction are happening simultaneously.</p><p>Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>A number of e-commerce platforms such as Meituan and Meituan were hit by the epidemic, but as soon as the horn of \"stimulating domestic demand\" sounded, it was still these giant companies who enjoyed dividends.</p><p>Not counting the huge Ali, Pinduoduo, Meituan and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>In the past year, the share price has increased by more than 100%, and the market value has exceeded 100 billion dollars, which is extremely rare in any field. On the premise that the penetration rate of online physical retail and life services in the whole market is only 20%, e-commerce platforms have proved that their growth space is still broad.</p><p>As we enter 2021, there is no sign that this market trend will be reversed in the short term, the policy environment of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption will not waver, and the digital penetration rate in all fields is also slowly but firmly increasing.</p><p>But we can see that the era of relying on huge volume to enjoy dividends is also changing. After the State Administration for Market Regulation issued three \"anti-monopoly\" tickets in a row, the era of Internet anti-monopoly officially opened in the second half of 2020.</p><p>More than one industry insider said that 2021 will be a 10-year turning point in China's Internet antitrust history. \"For giants, 2021 will be a year of injury.\" Fang Xingdong, founder of Internet Lab, said in an interview with the media that the era of laissez-faire has ended, and China's Internet has officially entered a new era of rebuilding norms and order, which is a historic turn.</p><p>To be sure, Ali and Meituan will suffer greater damage to their interests in this anti-monopoly curtain, while JD.COM and Pinduoduo at the other end will enjoy the power of policies and struggle to catch up. However, no one can be sure how strictly antitrust will be enforced and how broad it will be. For e-commerce platforms, instead of being afraid of uncertainty, it is better to seize the opportunity and consolidate their advantages in certain things.</p><p>The sinking market is still the fat favored by all e-commerce platforms. The \"shopping war\" launched in the middle of last year will undoubtedly become more intense in 2021. For the huge companies, this bears the major mission of the \"second growth curve\", and no one is willing to lose easily in this war of attrition;</p><p>On the other hand, the trend of younger consumption has become very obvious, and the post-90s and post-00s have gradually become the main consumers. The pursuit of beauty and quality of life runs through the younger generation. Specifically, a number of potential companies have been born in beauty, skin care and food and beverage categories, which will still promote the rise of market sentiment in disguise and benefit the e-commerce platform.</p><p>In the medium and long term, the growth rate of China's GDP and total social retail sales continues to slow down, the economy is in the downward range, and the growth rate of e-commerce industry will definitely slow down. The traffic is peaking and the increment is difficult to find. In 2021, e-commerce platforms will fight more in the same battlefield, which will become the main theme in the next few years.</p><p><b>How does Ali get out of internal and external difficulties?</b></p><p>Although the e-commerce market still maintains steady growth, for Ali, 2020 is a rare difficult period since its founding, and it has encountered an unprecedented prestige crisis.</p><p>Externally, the impact of the pandemic, Ant's suspension of IPO, tightening anti-monopoly supervision and increasingly severe competition; Inside, weak growth and scandals involving several senior executives have followed.</p><p>Nowadays, the impact of the epidemic can almost be turned over, and the crisis of ants has come to an end with the introduction of the split plan. However, it is still unknown how long anti-monopoly supervision will last. This factor will not only cause Ali's share price to fluctuate in the short term, but also cause obstacles to business development to some extent.</p><p>Forced by the situation, Ali publicly expressed his position on e-commerce for the first time. At the merchant conference held in January 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fubuki, vice president of the group, once said that he did not support \"choose one of the two\", which means that Ali will not explicitly limit the flow of merchants. After the \"choose one\" restriction is liberalized, it may cause the outflow of merchant resources in the short term, but in the long run, the choice of merchants still depends on the comprehensive competition dimensions of each platform such as traffic cost, supply chain and logistics services.</p><p>In addition to the challenges brought by force majeure factors, the pressure from external competition has only increased. Next, I'm afraid it will be difficult for Ali to concentrate on dealing with competitors in a certain field as before.</p><p>At home, the sinking price war between Ali and Pinduoduo is still deadlocked. Taobao special edition, which formed a combination boxing with Juhuasuan, played \"1 yuan special price\" and directly supplied by C2M factory, was pushed to the front of the stage, led by Wang Hai, the person in charge of 1688, obviously to give full play to the advantages of B-end. As of November 11, 2020, the annual active buyers of Taobao Special Edition have exceeded 100 million. After assisting Taobao drainage, the special edition may change its name and surname to deal with the sinking battle with a more independent attitude.</p><p>The core of the content e-commerce war with Tik Tok and Kuaishou is the competition for users' time, coupled with the fact that users' shopping habits are shifting from active search to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Recommendation, the handmade page has been changed since the end of last year. The promotion of the strategic position of \"guess you like\" and the appearance of \"shopping\" mean that it will be fully aligned with the intelligent recommendation mode of information flow in communities such as Tik Tok and Xiaohongshu. With Tang Xing, who is good at content and technology, taking full control of Taobao, this trend will become more and more obvious this year.</p><p>The growth of Internet users is peaking day by day, which is undoubtedly revealed in Ali, a \"middle-aged giant\". From the data point of view, both from the perspective of user growth and GMV growth rate, it shows that Ali is facing the dilemma of weak growth.</p><p>According to the 2020 Q3 financial report, the growth of Ali's monthly active users is nearly 10 million lower than the market estimate. Although the Q4 financial report shows that the net increase of monthly active users in a single quarter exceeded 21 million, and the growth rate picked up, this is largely brought by the double 11 promotion, and whether it can be retained depends on the performance of the next quarter. In addition, GMV (i.e. turnover) grew by only 19% year-on-year, the lowest quarter except for the pandemic; Taobao's live GMV in 2020 was 400 billion yuan, which was also lower than the internal expectation of 500 billion yuan-the impact of Tik Tok Kuaishou overweight live e-commerce on Taobao began to gradually appear.</p><p>To overcome the difficult problem and increase the user time, the content of strength is one solution, and finding the traffic depression that still needs to be mined is another.</p><p>This is also the underlying reason why community group buying has become a battlefield for giants. Surprisingly, in the bustle, Ali seems particularly low-key. Except for the \"4 billion US dollars investment\" of slow people, his performance in other aspects is completely behind: it is still inconclusive which business department operates the community group purchase, and the performance target is unclear.</p><p>Chairman Zhang Yong's remarks at the 2020 Q3 financial report meeting can reveal some information: \"The competition for community group buying is fierce, but the market is still very early, and Ali has the best conditions, which can attract customers later.\" At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu also said that Taobao shopping, a new business incubated by core e-commerce, will not take the form of subsidies for exchanging markets to achieve the growth of users and single quantities.</p><p>combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>The information obtained from people close to Ali can be interpreted as that, from Ali's perspective, this round of price war and grabbing position war in pursuit of scale is not worth investing too much. It is more important to do a good job in quality expansion, such as upgrading the back-end supply chain and performance.</p><p>Growth or profit has become a multiple-choice question that Ali needs to face again. At the 2020 Q4 financial report meeting, CFO Wei Wu made it clear that profit has never been Ali's first priority, and he will still invest heavily in innovative businesses in the future, including e-commerce seed business and others. It is foreseeable that for a long time, Taobao shopping, Taobao live broadcast, Taobao special edition, etc. will all get a lot of financial support. In addition, Ali also needs to give up some existing businesses that are difficult to support.</p><p>When enterprises are in difficulties internally and externally, the stability of organization is particularly important. However, since the beginning of this year, several executives, including Jiang Fan, have reported peach news and corruption scandals, and the core e-commerce companies, which have not made big moves for several years, have undergone substantial organizational adjustments. Ali also began to take the initiative to reflect on the defects in the construction of organizational culture: changing the once high-profile communication strategy, hiding the rank, canceling the weekly newspaper, canceling the 361 performance appraisal, and changing KPI to OKR. Recently, Zhang Yong's speech on the intranet to reflect on Zhongtai was also regarded as a precursor to Ali's splitting of Zhongtai.</p><p>After putting down some baggage, the big ship of Ali may be able to operate more flexibly.</p><p><b>What is the winning coupon geometry of Pinduoduo community group buying battle?</b></p><p>At the beginning of the new year, Pinduoduo appeared in the public view as a \"sweatshop\", and social events such as \"sudden death of employees\" and \"rights protection of employees\" that endangered corporate values and reputation occurred one after another.</p><p>As a result, Pinduoduo shares have experienced some ups and downs in the short term, but confidence in capital markets remains strong. However, from the business point of view, Pinduoduo, who originally won the title of CCTV Spring Festival Gala red envelope interactive partner, was finally replaced, losing an important promotion opportunity for payment business and grocery shopping business.</p><p>Grocery shopping business is regarded by Pinduoduo as an important weapon for whether it can continue to achieve the growth of users and turnover. In the early days of the competition, Pinduoduo grabbed a large market share with low prices and influence at the terminal, but it is still a long way from winning.</p><p>The community group buying industry is also developing in a more mature direction. From the perspective of financial indicators, giants are shifting from pursuing order volume and turnover to attaching importance to gross profit margin, and Pinduoduo is one of the representatives. After subsidies are reduced, if we want to maintain strong user growth, the difficulties will naturally become greater, and it becomes urgent to improve supply chain capability and performance efficiency.</p><p>From the perspective of expansion, following the successful experience of Xingsheng Optimization and opening a large number of offline stores may be one of the next development directions. At present, it seems that Meituan is testing the direct operation mode, while Didi has chosen the faster joining mode. There is no related action yet to buy more groceries.</p><p>More than solving the problem of growth, Pinduoduo is also planning for longer-term development. For example, how to handle the relationship with big brands, to what extent can we implement the new brand plan, and whether we can solve the hidden dangers of logistics.</p><p>Pinduoduo's current traffic is so large that it is difficult for big brands not to be tempted, but the tearing between the two sides also occurs frequently. SK2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Big names have also personally ended up maintaining their price systems. Seeing that the cooperation with brands either stays in some commodities or can only be indirectly cooperated by dealers, it is always superficial. Pinduoduo can only hope to attract some users who favor big names through the low-price temptation of \"tens of billions of subsidies\", which is not a long-term solution. As a result, Pinduoduo has also come up with the idea of incubating brands, but at present, the new brand plan focusing on C2M mode is still not effective at present.</p><p>Since last year, Pinduoduo has made a great breakthrough in the field of logistics, and has built Jitu Express with the number of e-commerce pieces second only to Ali's. Although it is still impossible to prove whether there is a capital binding between Pinduoduo and Jitu, the rapid development of Jitu can provide more bargaining chips for Pinduoduo to get rid of Ali's logistics system led by rookie. This year's Double Eleven and other big promotions will continue to stage the situation that the rabbit encounters the encirclement and suppression of Ali Department logistics.</p><p>In any case, how to maintain the growth of turnover and users, and really retain the non-sinking crowd, is still the main theme of Pinduoduo this year.</p><p><b>The new story of JD.COM retail, can logistics digital be successfully listed?</b></p><p>At least from the first three quarters of 2020, JD.COM's performance is quite good. After getting rid of nearly a year's stagnant growth, JD.COM's share price increased by 140% last year, second only to Meituan among Internet giants with a market value of over 100 billion dollars. Thanks to the long-term construction of logistics, JD.COM has become one of the few enterprises to benefit from the epidemic.</p><p>FMCG has become the fastest growing category in JD.COM in the past year. In Q2 and Q3 of 2020, the sales revenue of daily necessities increased by more than 35% year-on-year. However, to support the further rise of the stock price, JD.COM still needs to find new stories, and the newly established Jingxi business group has high hopes.</p><p>After Meituan, Didi and Pinduoduo plunged into the grocery buying war in the middle of last year, JD.COM, which arrived late, hurriedly completed the structural adjustment in November, packaged and reorganized the new channel, Jingxi and the newly established community group buying business, and planned to fight to the death in the sinking market.</p><p>At the end of December, Jingxi Pinpin opened in 14 cities at the same time. Earlier, they joined hands with the leader of community group buying-Xingsheng Preferred, and made a surprising strategic investment of 700 million US dollars in the latter, which made JD.COM, which was not optimistic, instantly have a place in the competitive situation.</p><p>Another news that surprised the outside world is that Liu Qiangdong, who has disappeared from the public for a long time, led the Jingxi business group this time. Many insiders in JD.COM told 36Kr that Liu Qiangdong's willingness to return to the front line of business has increased sharply in the past few months. \"I have repeatedly asked about the specific business situation and consulted employees' suggestions on company management in JD.COM's internal forums\", which is exciting news for the secondary market.</p><p>In this community group buying war, JD.COM's only advantage may be the accumulation of logistics, but considering JD.COM's execution and success rate in innovative business in the past few years, it is uncertain whether it can stand out in this battle of sinking market.</p><p>At the end of 2020, JD Retail also made a series of personnel and structure adjustments, focusing on the integration of third-party POP platform business. For JD.COM, in order to achieve \"accelerated growth\" in the four core indicators of transaction volume, revenue, users and profits \"in 2021, POP category still cannot be ignored, especially in the case of tightening anti-monopoly supervision. JD.COM, which has been suppressed by\" choosing one \"for a long time, may be able to make up lessons in clothing and other categories through this anti-monopoly investigation.</p><p>However, for other JD.COM sub-groups, the past few months have not been good. JD.COM Digital became a joint victim of the suspension of Ant's IPO, and the road to listing was suspended. Chen Shengqiang, the former CEO of Digital Science, also turned behind the scenes. In order to comply with financial regulatory requirements, Digital has continuously integrated AI and cloud services to further enhance its technological attributes.</p><p>For several financial giants, perhaps going public is no longer the first choice at present. At least after the ant incident, no one will want to be the first \"crab eater\". At least in 2021, it may not happen.</p><p>The resignation of Wang Zhenhui, CEO of JD.COM Logistics, also surprised the outside world. According to market news, JD Logistics has selected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Leading the Hong Kong IPO, the company may be valued at about US$40 billion, and plans to go public in the second or third quarter of 2021.</p><p>The revenue of JD.COM Logistics has maintained a year-on-year growth of more than 50% for many quarters. Referring to the improvement of the overall valuation of JD.COM Group by the listing of JD.COM Health, the listing of JD.COM Logistics may push the market value of JD.COM to another level.</p><p><b>Meituan stock price or flying with innovative business losses</b></p><p>If the trend in 2019 is consistent, Meituan in 2020 is still the fastest-soaring giant among Chinese Internet companies, with its market value rising by 170% a year. After the anti-monopoly storm and the short fluctuation of the stock price, Meituan's share price at the beginning of 2021 was unbreakable, increasing by 43% in just 20 days, and its market value exceeded HK$2.3 trillion.</p><p>Getting rid of the impact of the epidemic, highly stable main business income, and the imagination brought to the market by innovative businesses such as community group buying, Meituan is still the local Internet company most favored by the secondary market. However, as summarized before, the current share price of Meituan contains a certain extent of ahead-of-schedule expectations of the market. Once the performance fluctuates, its share price sensitivity will be greatly enhanced, which requires Meituan to balance the relationship between innovative business investment and profit in the future.</p><p>Community group buying is undoubtedly the most concerned business of the US Mission at present. Since entering the game in July 2020, the US Mission has full of stamina. According to a number of community group buying practitioners, 36 Krypton revealed that in the first week of the new year, the national average daily order volume of Meituan has reached 20 million, becoming the first in the industry, and it has successively overtaken the daily order volume of Duoduo grocery buying in Wuhan and Jiangxi.</p><p>For the newly entered market, Meituan prefers to continue to rely on high-pressure subsidies to compete for the market. At present, in South China and Central China, the average price of Meituan prefers to buy food is far lower than that of Duoduo (about 4 or 5 pieces). In relatively mature markets, Meituan has not only paid attention to the single quantity and repurchase rate, but gross profit has also become a new assessment index in 2021.</p><p>Especially on the performance side, in the past few months, Meituan has continued to reduce costs through standardized management. A franchisee of Meituan Preferred Grid Warehouse in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai revealed to 36Kr that in order to optimize the operation flow of grid warehouse, Meituan will ask its grid warehouse to add cameras, monitor them in real time, digitize each process, and make refined adjustments through data operation; In addition, the US Mission prefers to send headquarters personnel to the station one after another to keep an eye on the operation process.</p><p>The latest news is that Meituan Preferred has planned to prepare the first batch of offline direct stores in Hangzhou. On the intranet of the US Mission, there are already recruitment posts for Hangzhou store staff. However, according to people familiar with the matter, \"the early stage is just an attempt, and it is uncertain whether it will be opened on a large scale in 2021.\"</p><p>In Q3 2020, Meituan lost 2.029 billion yuan in innovative business, an increase of 68.8% year-on-year. Considering that the community group buying business has now become a battlefield for military strategists, the US Mission may still need to burn money to build a moat, and it is urgent to maintain the profit level in its main business.</p><p>Fortunately, the main business of Meituan is stable enough, especially the take-out business, which has started from traffic to profit. In Q2 and Q3 2020, the operating profit of Meituan Food Delivery was 1.253 billion yuan and 768 million yuan, respectively.</p><p>However, the hidden worry is that the price of this profit is the continuous improvement of commissions and advertising business, and behind it is the squeeze of merchants. At the beginning of last year, Guangdong Catering Association jointly shouted to the US Mission, demanding a reduction in the commission ratio, which was the outbreak of conflicts intensified in the special market.</p><p>Under the anti-monopoly sentiment, forcing merchants to \"choose one of the two\" may affect Meituan's control over merchants in the future, and the resulting instability of commission and advertising revenue will also affect Meituan's profit prospects. However, from the current point of view, this impact is still minimal, and \"choose one\" still exists widely. Judging from the stock price, the secondary market has not shown excessive panic about the impact of antitrust on the US Mission.</p><p>Another business to look forward to is bike-sharing. For Meituan, this is the only innovative business with a single quantity of tens of millions, which is of great help to enhance the activity of Meituan Dianping App and realize cross-selling of various businesses. At the same time, the end of the bicycle track war also gave Meituan the opportunity to raise the unit price and run it as a normal business. In October last year, the daily order volume of Meituan bicycles exceeded 17 million.</p><p>How to maintain the profit level in the relatively certain main business, stand out as soon as possible in the highly uncertain innovative business, and occupy the market share will determine the trend of Meituan's stock price in the next year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/E9OgvUb6VvBZT1ZHhKijWQ\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","03690":"美团-W","09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/E9OgvUb6VvBZT1ZHhKijWQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176177637","content_text":"过去的2020年，时代不可避免地被全球蔓延的新冠疫情标记和改变，在消费领域，这种改变尤为明显，反消费主义的讨论一时甚嚣尘上。全国社会消费品零售总额、消费者信心指数等数据无不暴露出市场大环境的不确定性。但是，一系列冰冷的数据远远无法勾画出后疫情时代消费领域的全貌，事实上，破坏、重建正在同步发生。阿里、拼多多、美团等一众电商平台遭遇疫情打击，但“拉动内需”的号角一吹响，坐享红利的仍是这些巨头公司。不算体量巨大的阿里，拼多多、美团和京东过去一年的股价涨幅均超过了100%，且市值均超过了千亿美金，这在任何领域都极其罕见。在线上实物零售及生活服务在整个大盘的渗透率只有20%的前提下，电商平台们证明了自己的增长空间仍然广阔。迈入2021年，没有迹象显示这一市场趋势会短期内遭到逆转，扩大内需、提振消费的政策大环境也不会动摇，全领域的数字化渗透率亦在缓慢而坚定地提高。但我们能看到，依靠巨大体量享尽红利的时代也正在发生变化。在市场监管总局连续发出三张“反垄断”罚单后，互联网反垄断的时代在2020年下半年正式开启。不止一位业内人士称，2021年会是中国互联网反垄断史上以10年计的大转折之年。“于巨头而言，2021年会是伤筋动骨的一年。”互联网实验室创始人方兴东在接受媒体采访时表示，自由放任时代结束，中国互联网正式进入重建规范、重构秩序的新时代，这是历史性的转向。可以肯定的是，阿里和美团将在这场反垄断大幕中，遭受更大的利益损害，而另一端的京东和拼多多或将享受政策之力，奋力追赶。但反垄断将执行多严格，涉及多广泛，无人可以确定。对电商平台来说，与其在不确定性中担惊受怕，不如在确定的事情上抓紧机会，巩固优势。下沉市场仍是那块被所有电商平台都垂青的肥肉，从去年年中展开的“买菜大战”毫无疑问将在2021年更加激烈，对于体量庞大的各家来说，这承担着“第二增长曲线”的重大使命，谁都不愿意在这场消耗战中轻易败下阵来；另一方面，消费年轻化趋势已非常明显，90后、00后逐渐成为主力消费人群。对于美和生活品质的相关追求贯穿年轻一代，具体到品类来说，美妆护肤类、食品饮料类都诞生了多家潜力公司，这变相仍会推动市场情绪的高涨，利好电商平台。中长期来看，中国GDP、社会零售总额增速持续放缓，经济正处在下行区间，电商行业增速肯定会放缓。流量见顶、增量难寻，2021年电商平台们将更多地在同一战场厮杀，这将成为未来几年的主旋律。阿里如何走出内外交困？尽管电商大盘仍保持着稳定增长，但对阿里而言，2020是其创业以来罕见的困顿时期，并遭遇了前所未有的声望危机。在外，疫情冲击、蚂蚁暂缓IPO、反垄断监管趋严、竞争局势日趋严峻；在内，增长乏力、数位高管的丑闻等问题接踵而至。如今，疫情的影响几乎可以翻篇，蚂蚁的危机随着拆分方案的出台暂告一段落。不过，反垄断监管还将持续多少时日仍未可知，这一因素不仅导致阿里股价在短期内震荡，还将一定程度造成业务发展上的障碍。受形势所迫，阿里首次公开对电商“二选一”表态。2021年1月举办的商家大会上，阿里巴巴集团副总裁吹雪曾表示不支持“二选一”，这意味着阿里不会明着对商家限流。“二选一”限制放开后，短期或造成商户资源外流，但长远看，商家的选择仍然要看各平台的流量成本、供应链、物流服务等综合竞争维度。除了不可抗力因素带来的挑战，来自外部竞争的压力也只增不减，接下来，阿里恐怕很难如以往那般，专心对付某一个领域的竞争对手。电商主场，阿里与拼多多的下沉价格战依然胶着。与聚划算等形成组合拳、打出“1元特价”和C2M工厂直供的淘宝特价版被推向台前，由1688负责人汪海主导，显然是要发挥B端优势。截至2020年11月11日，淘宝特价版的年度活跃买家已突破1亿人。在辅助淘宝引流后，特价版或将更名换姓，以更独立的姿态，应对下沉之战。与抖音和快手的内容电商大战，核心是对用户时长的争夺，再加上用户的购物习惯正从主动搜索转向智能化推荐，手淘页面自去年底起改头换面，“猜你喜欢”战略地位的提升、“逛逛”的出现，意味着其将全面向抖音、小红书等社区的信息流智能推荐模式看齐，而随着擅长内容和技术的汤兴全面掌管淘宝，这个趋势在今年将愈发明显。互联网用户的增长正日趋见顶，这一点在“中年巨头”阿里身上显露无疑。从数据来看，无论从用户增长还是GMV增速来看，都显示着阿里正面临增长乏力的困境。2020年Q3财报显示，阿里月活用户的增长低于市场预估近1000万。虽然Q4财报显示，月活用户单季净增超过2100万，增速回暖，但这很大程度是双11大促带来的，能否留存还需要看下个季度的表现。此外，GMV（即成交额）同比增速仅为19%，是除疫情外最低的一个季度；淘宝直播2020年全年GMV为4000亿元，也低于内部预期的5000亿元——抖音快手加码直播电商对于淘宝的冲击，开始逐渐显现。若要攻破难题，增加用户时长，发力内容是一个解决方案，寻找仍待开采的流量洼地是另一个。这也是社区团购成为巨头必争之地的底层原因。令人意外的是，在一片热闹中，阿里却显得格外低调，除了慢人一拍的“40亿美元投入”，在其他方面的表现上全面落后：社区团购由哪个业务部门操盘仍无定论、业绩目标也不明确。董事长张勇在2020年Q3财报会上的一席话能透露出些许信息：“社区团购竞争白热化，但市场还非常早期，阿里条件最好，之后能把客户吸引过来。”在2020年Q4财报会上，CFO卫武也表示，核心电商孵化的新业务淘宝买菜将不会采取补贴换市场的形式来实现用户和单量的增长。结合36氪从接近阿里的人士处获取的信息，可以解读为，在阿里视角，这轮为了追求规模而打出的价格战和抢点位战，并不值得投入太多，先做好质量的扩张如提升后端的供应链和履约才更要紧。要增长还是要利润，成了阿里需要重新面对的选择题。2020年Q4财报会上，CFO卫武明确表示，利润从不是阿里的第一优先选择，未来仍将大量投资创新业务，包括电商种子业务和其他。可以预见，在很长一段时间内，淘宝买菜、淘宝直播、淘宝特价版等都将获得大量的资金支持。此外，对于已有的难以扶持的部分业务，阿里也需要断舍离一番。企业处于内外交困之际，组织的稳定性显得尤为重要。然而，今年以来，包括蒋凡在内的数位高管传出的桃色新闻和贪腐丑闻，数年未大动的核心电商因此经历了较大幅度的组织调整。阿里也开始主动反思组织文化建设上存在的缺陷：改变曾经高调的传播策略、隐藏职级、取消周报、取消361绩效考核、改KPI为OKR，近期张勇在内网的一次反思中台的演讲也被视作阿里将拆分中台的前兆。放下一些包袱后，阿里这艘大船或许能运转得更为灵活。拼多多社区团购之战胜券几何？新年开局，拼多多是以“血汗工厂”的面貌出现在大众视野里，“员工猝死”、“员工维权”等危及企业价值观和声望的社会性事件接连发生。拼多多的股价因此在短期内经历一番起伏，不过，资本市场对其信心仍然十分强劲。但从业务角度来看，原本拿下央视春晚红包互动合作伙伴头衔的拼多多，最终被替换，失去了给支付业务和买菜业务的一次重要推广机会。买菜业务被拼多多视为能否持续实现用户和成交额增长重要武器。在竞争早期，拼多多凭借低价和在终端的影响力，抢到了较大的市场份额，不过，距离其取得胜利还有很长的路。社区团购行业也在向更成熟的方向发展。从财务指标上来看，巨头们正从追求订单量和成交额等转向看重毛利率，拼多多是其中代表。补贴变少之后，要想保持强劲的用户增长，困难自然会变大，提高供应链能力和履约效率变得紧迫起来。从扩张层面来看，效仿兴盛优选曾经的成功经验，开出大量线下门店或将是接下来的发展方向之一，目前看来，美团在试水直营模式，而滴滴选择了速度更快的加盟模式。多多买菜目前还没有相关动作。不止要解决增长的问题，拼多多还在为更长远的发展谋划。例如如何处理好与大品牌的关系、能在多大程度上推行新品牌计划、能否解决物流隐患。拼多多如今的流量之大，大品牌很难不心动，但双方的撕扯也频繁发生，SK2、特斯拉等大牌也都曾亲自下场维护其价格体系，眼看和品牌的合作要么停留在部分商品入驻，要么只能通过经销商间接合作，总是浅尝辄止，拼多多只能寄望于通过“百亿补贴”打出的低价诱惑来吸引部分青睐大牌的用户，这非长久之计。由此，拼多多也萌生孵化品牌的想法，但目前来看，主打C2M模式的新品牌计划目前成效依然不大。自去年起，拼多多在物流领域有了较大的突破，用仅次于阿里的电商件数扶植起了极兔快递。虽然目前还无法证明拼多多与极兔之间是否存在资本绑定，但极兔的迅猛发展能为拼多多摆脱以菜鸟为首的阿里物流体系提供更多筹码。今年双十一等大促或将继续上演极兔遭遇阿里系物流围剿的局面。无论如何，如何保持成交额和用户的增长，并真正留住非下沉人群，仍然是拼多多今年的主旋律。京东零售的新故事，物流数科能否成功上市？至少从2020年的前三个季度看，京东的业绩表现是相当可以的。在摆脱了近一年的增长停滞后，京东股价在去年实现了140%的涨幅，在市值超1000亿美金的一众互联网巨头中，仅次于美团。得益于物流的长期建设，京东成了为数不多受益疫情的企业。大快消成为过去一年京东增长势头最快的品类，2020年的Q2和Q3，日用百货商品销售收入同比增长均超过了35%，但眼下要想支撑股价的进一步上扬，京东仍需找到新故事，最新组建的京喜事业群被寄予厚望。美团、滴滴、拼多多在去年年中纷纷扎入买菜大战后，姗姗来迟的京东在11月才匆匆完成架构调整，将新通路、京喜和新成立的社区团购业务等打包重组，打算在下沉市场展开殊死搏斗。12月底，京喜拼拼在14城同时开城。而在更早前，他们牵手了社区团购龙头——兴盛优选，令人意外的战略投资后者7亿美金，这让不被看好的京东，瞬间在竞争局势中有了一席之地。另一个让外界惊讶的消息是，此次统领京喜事业群的是消失在公众面前许久的刘强东，多位京东内部人士向36氪表示，刘强东重返业务一线的意愿在过去几个月内陡增，“已经多次在京东内部论坛上询问具体业务情况，咨询员工对公司管理的建议”，这对二级市场来说这是个令人振奋的消息。在这场社区团购大战中，京东唯一的优势可能是物流端的积累，但考虑过去几年京东在创新业务上的执行力和成功率，能否在这场下沉市场的战斗中脱颖而出并不确定。2020年终，京东零售也进行了一系列的人员和架构调整，重点在于整合第三方的POP平台业务。对于京东来说，要在2021年实现“交易额、收入、用户和利润四大核心指标上”的“加速增长”，POP品类仍然不容忽视，尤其是在反垄断监管趋严的情况下，长期遭受“二选一”打压的京东，或许能借这次反垄断调查，在服饰等品类上抓紧补课。不过对于其他京东子集团，过去几个月并不好受。京东数科成为了蚂蚁IPO暂缓事件的连带受害者，上市之路就此暂停，数科原CEO陈生强也转至幕后。为了符合金融监管要求，数科连续整合了AI和云业务，进一步增强科技属性。对于几家金融巨头来说，眼下或许上市已经不再是第一选择，至少在蚂蚁事件之后，没有人会想成为第一个“吃螃蟹的人”，至少在2021年，可能不太会发生。京东物流CEO王振辉的辞职也让外界倍感意外。根据市场消息，京东物流已挑选美国银行和高盛牵头经办香港IPO事宜，公司估值可能达约400亿美元，并计划在2021年第二季度或第三季度上市。京东物流收入已经保持了多个季度50%以上的同比增长，参考京东健康上市对京东集团整体估值的提升，京东物流的上市或许会将京东市值再推一个台阶。美团股价或与创新业务亏损齐飞如2019年的走势一致，2020年的美团仍然是中国互联网公司中股价蹿升最快的巨头，市值一年大涨170%。在遭遇反垄断风波，股价短暂波动后，2021开年的美团股价势如破竹，短短20天增幅43%，市值超23000亿港币。摆脱疫情影响，高度稳定的主营业务收入，叠加社区团购等创新业务带给市场的想象力，美团仍是最被二级市场看好的本土互联网公司。但还是之前总结的，当前美团股价包含市场一定程度的超前预期，一旦业绩出现波动，其股价敏感度将大大增强，这需要美团在未来平衡好创新业务投入与利润之间的关系。社区团购无疑是美团当前最受外界关注的业务，自2020年7月入局以来，美团优选后劲十足。据多位社区团购从业者向36氪透露，新年第一周，美团优选的全国日均订单量已经达到2000万，成为行业第一，并在武汉和江西先后完成了对多多买菜日单量的反超。对于新近进入的市场美团优选继续靠高压补贴来争夺市场，目前在华南、华中一带，美团优选的件均价已远低于多多买菜（大概在4、5块上下），而在相对成熟的市场，美团已不仅仅关注单量和复购率，毛利也成为了2021年新的考核指标。尤其在履约端，过去几个月美团在持续通过规范管理来降低成本。一位江浙沪区域的美团优选网格仓加盟商向36氪透露，为了优化网格仓作业流程，美团会要求旗下的网格仓加入摄像头，实时监控，把每个流程数据化，通过数据运营再做精细化调整；另外美团优选陆续派总部人员前往驻点，紧盯操作流程。最新的消息是，美团优选已经计划在杭州筹备首批线下直营店。在美团内网上，已经有杭州门店人员的招聘帖。不过据知情人士透露，“前期只是尝试，2021年是否会大范围开设并不确定。”2020年Q3，美团在创新业务上亏损了20.29亿元，同比扩大68.8%。考虑到社区团购业务如今成了兵家必争之地，美团或仍需烧钱来高筑护城河，也急需要在主营业务上保持住利润水平。不过好在，美团的主营业务足够稳定，尤其是外卖业务，已经从流量担当开始成为盈利担当。2020年Q2和Q3，美团餐饮外卖的经营利润分别为12.53亿元和7.68亿元。但隐忧的地方是，这一利润代价是佣金和广告业务不断提高，背后是对商家的压榨。去年年初，广东餐饮协会联名喊话美团，要求降低佣金比例，就是矛盾激化在特殊行情下的爆发。在反垄断情绪下，逼迫商家“二选一”或许将在未来影响美团对于商家的控制，由此带来的佣金和广告收入的不稳定性也将影响美团的利润前景。不过从目前来看，这一影响还微乎其微，“二选一”仍广泛存在。 从股价行情看，二级市场对于反垄断之于美团的影响也并未展现出过度持久的恐慌。另一个值得期待的业务是共享单车。对美团来说，这是创新业务中唯二单量在千万级别的，对于提升美团点评App活跃度，进而实现各个业务的交叉销售有极大帮助。同时，单车赛道大战落幕也使得美团有机会提升单价，把它作为一个正常的生意来运转，去年10月，美团单车的日订单量已经突破1700万单。如何在相对确定性的主营业务中保持住利润水平，在高度不确定性的创新业务中尽快脱颖而出，占据市场份额，决定美团未来一年股价走向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"09618":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388452346,"gmtCreate":1613088443285,"gmtModify":1704878290116,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GG","listText":"GG","text":"GG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388452346","repostId":"1138841526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138841526","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613053269,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138841526?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-11 22:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Some Industrial Hemp Stocks Lower Premarket, Tilray Drops Over 12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138841526","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"部分工业大麻股盘前走低，Tilray跌超12%，Aphria跌超6%，Veru跌约5%，奥罗拉大麻公司跌近1%。","content":"<p>Some industrial hemp stocks were lower in the premarket, with Tilray down more than 12%, Aphria down more than 6%, Veru down about 5%, and Aurora Hemp down nearly 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e0e9875f710b7daf2656b71d12e0d6\" tg-width=\"288\" tg-height=\"194\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some Industrial Hemp Stocks Lower Premarket, Tilray Drops Over 12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome Industrial Hemp Stocks Lower Premarket, Tilray Drops Over 12%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-11 22:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some industrial hemp stocks were lower in the premarket, with Tilray down more than 12%, Aphria down more than 6%, Veru down about 5%, and Aurora Hemp down nearly 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e0e9875f710b7daf2656b71d12e0d6\" tg-width=\"288\" tg-height=\"194\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ed81b1e72df2f2f0f21497fe08eaed","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138841526","content_text":"部分工业大麻股盘前走低，Tilray跌超12%，Aphria跌超6%，Veru跌约5%，奥罗拉大麻公司跌近1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365667292,"gmtCreate":1614736409816,"gmtModify":1704774598897,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365667292","repostId":"2116177516","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116177516","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614732450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116177516?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 08:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"General Motors' Cruise is rumored to acquire autonomous driving company Voyage","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116177516","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，通用汽车旗下自动驾驶汽车公司Cruise正在谈判收购自动驾驶技术初创公司Voyage。Voyage主要在佛罗里达的退休社区开展业务。报道称，两年前，投资者认为自动驾驶汽车可以相对较快地上路，但Cruise和Alphabet旗下自动驾驶部门Waymo在部署付费服务方面的延迟，导致一些投资者退出。据悉，为推进自动驾驶技术的商业化，Cruise不断拓展相关业务。","content":"<p>According to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Its self-driving car company Cruise is in talks to acquire autonomous technology startup Voyage. Voyage operates primarily in retirement communities in Florida. The acquisition of Voyage will help Cruise grow its driverless taxi business, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>According to the report, two years ago, investors thought autonomous cars could hit the road relatively quickly, but delays in deploying paid services by Cruise and Alphabet's self-driving arm Waymo led some investors to exit. Since then, self-driving cars<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It will either go out of business or be bought by a bigger company. For example, Starsky Robotics Inc. collapsed last year, and Zoox was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Acquisition.</p><p>It is reported that in order to promote the commercialization of autonomous driving technology, Cruise continues to expand related businesses. The company has partnered with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Established a distribution pilot project and hired in January this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Executive Gil West serves as chief operating officer.</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>General Motors' Cruise is rumored to acquire autonomous driving company Voyage</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGeneral Motors' Cruise is rumored to acquire autonomous driving company Voyage\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-03 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Its self-driving car company Cruise is in talks to acquire autonomous technology startup Voyage. Voyage operates primarily in retirement communities in Florida. The acquisition of Voyage will help Cruise grow its driverless taxi business, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>According to the report, two years ago, investors thought autonomous cars could hit the road relatively quickly, but delays in deploying paid services by Cruise and Alphabet's self-driving arm Waymo led some investors to exit. Since then, self-driving cars<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>It will either go out of business or be bought by a bigger company. For example, Starsky Robotics Inc. collapsed last year, and Zoox was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Acquisition.</p><p>It is reported that in order to promote the commercialization of autonomous driving technology, Cruise continues to expand related businesses. The company has partnered with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Established a distribution pilot project and hired in January this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Executive Gil West serves as chief operating officer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/420619.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12340231b976722241abb465e8821663","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/420619.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116177516","content_text":"据知情人士透露，通用汽车旗下自动驾驶汽车公司Cruise正在谈判收购自动驾驶技术初创公司Voyage。Voyage主要在佛罗里达的退休社区开展业务。知情人士表示，收购Voyage将有助于Cruise发展无人驾驶出租车业务。\n报道称，两年前，投资者认为自动驾驶汽车可以相对较快地上路，但Cruise和Alphabet旗下自动驾驶部门Waymo在部署付费服务方面的延迟，导致一些投资者退出。自那以后，自动驾驶汽车创业公司要么倒闭，要么被更大的公司收购。例如，Starsky Robotics Inc.去年倒闭了，Zoox公司则被亚马逊收购。\n据悉，为推进自动驾驶技术的商业化，Cruise不断拓展相关业务。该公司已与沃尔玛建立了配送试点项目，并于今年1月聘请达美航空高管Gil West担任首席运营官。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117129205,"gmtCreate":1623123884507,"gmtModify":1704196573410,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117129205","repostId":"2141253289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127587835,"gmtCreate":1624856974427,"gmtModify":1703846344042,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？？？？","listText":"？？？？","text":"？？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127587835","repostId":"1115271775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115271775","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624849752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115271775?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"HKEx will resume trading at 1:30 p.m.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115271775","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。\n根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:","content":"<p>On June 28th, the Hong Kong Observatory reissued a red rainstorm warning signal (previously a black rainstorm warning signal), and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will resume market trading at 1:30 pm.</p><p>According to the regulations of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, if the black rainstorm warning is lifted from 11:00 to 11:30, the market will open at 1:30 pm; The black rainstorm warning will be lifted from 11:30 to 12:00, and the market will open at 2:00 pm; After 12:00, the black rainstorm warning is lifted, and the market will be closed all day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HKEx will resume trading at 1:30 p.m.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHKEx will resume trading at 1:30 p.m.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 11:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 28th, the Hong Kong Observatory reissued a red rainstorm warning signal (previously a black rainstorm warning signal), and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will resume market trading at 1:30 pm.</p><p>According to the regulations of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, if the black rainstorm warning is lifted from 11:00 to 11:30, the market will open at 1:30 pm; The black rainstorm warning will be lifted from 11:30 to 12:00, and the market will open at 2:00 pm; After 12:00, the black rainstorm warning is lifted, and the market will be closed all day.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1244793084c6388467f46fc7c39784b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115271775","content_text":"6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。\n根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:00解除黑色暴雨警告，下午2:00开市；12:00后解除黑色暴雨警告，则全天休市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103920770,"gmtCreate":1619743911890,"gmtModify":1704271676328,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103920770","repostId":"2131343905","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368806595,"gmtCreate":1614304695817,"gmtModify":1704770399861,"author":{"id":"3573599245411531","authorId":"3573599245411531","name":"尼克欢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc6e127e28e934f3cc7b8dc2b4e380b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573599245411531","idStr":"3573599245411531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark","listText":"Mark","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368806595","repostId":"1184986631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184986631","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1614299785,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184986631?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-26 08:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The last time US Treasury yields violently pulled up, what happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184986631","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"隔夜美债市场出现大幅波动，债券市场遭到抛售推动长端美债快速收高，10年美债利率不仅突破关键关口1.5%，更是在盘中一度创下1.61%的高点，为2020年疫情爆发以来的新高。债券的剧烈波动迅速跨资产蔓延","content":"<p>Overnight, the U.S. debt market fluctuated sharply, and the selling of the bond market pushed the long-term U.S. debt to close up rapidly. The 10-year U.S. debt interest rate not only broke through the key barrier of 1.5%, but also hit a high of 1.61% in the intraday session, a new high since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. The violent volatility of bonds quickly spread across assets to other assets, causing the U.S. stock market, especially growth stocks, to plummet, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3.5%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 falling 1.8% and 2.5% respectively. At the sector level, optional consumption, technology and communication services, which are high in valuation and sensitive to rising interest rates, have become the hardest hit areas, while safe-haven sectors such as public utilities, healthcare and banks benefiting from rising interest rates have experienced relatively little decline. At the same time, gold plummeted and the dollar rose.</p><p>The source of the sharp fluctuation of major asset prices is still the upward trend of bond interest rates, which is in the same vein as the recent market worries that the growth expectation is improving and the inflation is rising to push up interest rates, which may suppress the valuation and drag down the market. However, the rate of change has suddenly become violent, which is also worthy of our vigilance.<b>We have repeatedly suggested before that, in addition to absolute levels, the rate at which interest rates change is crucial, essentially reflecting the volatility of bond assets</b>。</p><p>Therefore, in view of the latest situation, we comment as follows for your reference.</p><p><b>1. Why do interest rates rise rapidly? The chain reaction after breaking through a critical barrier</b></p><p>In the general direction, the upward trend of the long-term interest rate of US debt is consistent with the recent improvement of the global overall epidemic situation, the acceleration of vaccination, and the gradual approach of a new round of 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the United States. At this point, the market has formed a sufficient consensus expectation, so it will not be repeated (\"After the 10-year US debt interest rate rose above 1.1%\", \"Spring Festival Inventory: Interest rate soared, oil price was overbought; The epidemic situation improved, and the stimulus was approaching\").</p><p>However, overnight rates suddenly accelerated upward,<b>We don't think we can rule out a ripple effect after bond interest rates break the key barrier and trigger some positions and derivatives anchored at this point, or even programmed trading orders</b>It is not a complete fundamental factor. After all, at present, the speculative position of the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt is still net long, and the sudden rise in interest rate will put it under pressure.<b>Therefore, this is also the reason why we suggest that we need to pay attention to breaking through the key barrier in the short term</b>(\"The Disturbance of Upward Rate: Lessons from 2018\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e74a112cb938257ccd8de4b5452adc7\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79604d78c8a870cacaddfd6086600977\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How fast do interest rates go up? Fluctuations close to 2x SD</b></p><p>We have repeatedly emphasize that that absolute level of interest rate is one aspect,<b>In a sense, the speed of interest rate upward is more critical</b>Because the interest rate rising too quickly means that the bond market will experience violent fluctuations, and this fluctuation will \"infect\" other assets across assets, which is very similar to the fluctuation caused by the rapid breakthrough of 2.8% in US Treasury yields in early February 2018.</p><p>So, how quickly do overnight bond rates move? If measured at the high of 1.61%, the volatility of 10-year Treasury bonds is close to 2 times the standard deviation of the past year, which is already higher than the \"alert level\" of 1.5 times the standard deviation of our upward signal of interest rates, and the highest in early 2018 is close to 2.5 times.<b>Generally speaking, from historical experience, above this threshold alert level usually brings disturbance to the market.</b>Against this backdrop, the implied volatility of bond futures has also risen to a high since the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af78ac184d4226ffcefd35c6ec05240\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ee1037e24f9be747042526f8088891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. The challenge of upward real interest rate: higher real financing cost is not conducive to gold and high valuation</b></p><p>In the process of this round of higher interest rates,<b>Another feature is that real interest rates are dominant, rather than inflation expectations as the market generally refers to</b>This is consistent with what we suggest. Compared with the early January low, the 10-year nominal US Treasury yields has risen by more than 45 basis points, while real interest rates have contributed nearly 43 basis points, and inflation expectations have been roughly flat. The recent trend of gold is a good evidence, because gold tends to benefit from the upward trend of interest rates dominated by inflation expectations (implied that the real interest rate is under pressure or downward).</p><p><b>Actual inflation moves are often confused with nominal interest rates minus TIPs Implicit inflation expectations (breakeven) of real interest rates. We expect the upward trend of interest rates to be mainly based on real interest rates</b>, mainly considering: a) the implied real growth and return on investment recovery; b) The long-term inflation expectation is close to the upper edge of the long-term range of 2.2~2.5% (in the long run, this upper edge is relatively stable), which reflects the expectation of higher inflation in the future in advance; c) The short-end and long-end inflation expectations have been inverted, indicating that short-term bonds have included more expectations of higher inflation, and this inversion cannot be sustained from historical experience.</p><p><b>The upward trend of real interest rate not only implies the increase of real rate of return after deducting price factors, but also means the marginal increase of real financing cost</b>(Although it is still obviously negative at present, with a 10-year term of-0.61%), then the implication of higher real interest rate for asset prices is that, on the one hand, it is not conducive to gold, and on the other hand, it will also bring greater pressure on the marginal high valuation part, especially the part with congested transactions, excessive floating profits and higher financing leverage since then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef52da1b01866eedd4a022a2f3b9a90d\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98620b61bab182ef4e00c8e4df83901\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. What may happen next? Bonds are oversold; Stock markets focus on ripple effects in the short term, but medium-term moves are determined by fundamentals</b></p><p>First of all, from the perspective of interest rate itself, after yesterday's sharp fluctuation, the 10-year U.S. bond has touched the first-stage target point of 1.5% given in our annual outlook published at the end of last year, \"Overseas Market Outlook in 2021: Epidemic Path, Replenishment and Tongyou\". As the long-term Treasury Bond has been obviously oversold,<b>If there is no further chain reaction due to factors such as programmed trading of bonds or position unwind, it is possible to stabilize at this level and wait for the next catalyst factor.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22327d09a37aff72e0d2f14bdc6b1004\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, for the stock market, the volatility and stock market volatility caused by the sudden rise in overnight US Treasury yields are very similar in form to the situation in early February 2018 after the U.S. debt quickly broke through 2.8% 10 years after the non-agricultural data greatly exceeded expectations. At that time, the volatility of bond interest rates was as high as 2.5 times the standard deviation.</p><p><b>From the historical experience at that time, after the bond interest rate broke through the key barrier in early February and caused volatility, the reason why the subsequent market volatility was further amplified and prolonged was not only limited to the higher interest rate itself, but triggered the volatility strategy and high leverage crowded trading triggered a series of chain reactions</b>。 As we analyzed in \"The Disturbance of Upward Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\", looking back, if the interest rate went up simply without a series of subsequent chain reactions, it may not have caused such a large turbulent period in February 2018 that lasted for more than a month. The specific process is as follows: on Monday, February 5th, the further plunge of U.S. stocks caused VIX to soar by 116% (the single-day change exceeded that during the epidemic in 2020). The previously abnormally \"crowded\" bearish volatility position needed to be quickly covered, which also caused the ETF products that were bearish on VIX to plummet by 93% on Tuesday, triggering the early redemption clause in advance and liquidated. Some investment strategies (VolatilityTargeting) that directly or indirectly peg to volatility, such as Risk Parity and CTA (managed futures), need to adjust their exposure to risky assets in the new volatility environment, which also brings selling pressure to the spot market. In addition, crowded trading and higher financing leverage have also increased selling pressure on individual investors. Financial market liquidity indicators have also generally shown signs of tightening as a result.</p><p>However, it still needs to be emphasized that from a long-term and medium-term perspective,<b>After short-term fluctuations, the fundamental support table of U.S. stocks can still rebound and reach a new high. The reason behind this lies in the support of tax reform to profit at the end of 2017; It wasn't until October, when interest rates continued to move higher and growth peaked, that the market peaked outright.</b>After nearly two months of consolidation and fluctuation from February to March, U.S. stocks bottomed out and rebounded from the beginning of April and reached a new high until the beginning of October, when interest rates broke through 3% and growth peaked, and started a new round of decline. Compared with other markets at that time, such as the Chinese market, the fundamental reason why U.S. stocks can rebound and reach a new high lies in the additional promotion of corporate profits brought by the tax reform in 2017. In fact, this is not available in his market, and when the fundamental space is exhausted, the market becomes unsustainable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1282bf6413c6035a41385061aa932393\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/914d16d6516ec728b7fcde7ec8190ce7\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a812d954989f1ecfed856942880c72bf\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, the enlightenment of the experience in 2018 is that rising interest rates are indeed prone to disturbance in the context of full mood, high valuation and crowded transactions, especially the growth stocks with high valuation.<b>Now that it has broken through the key barrier and caused volatility, then we need to pay attention to whether it will trigger some chain reactions of programmed trading or leveraged trading to prolong and amplify volatility. However, the market trend in the medium-term dimension still depends on fundamentals</b>If the positive trend of fundamentals is still established, then the market can still get rid of the volatility caused by interest rate disturbance until the fundamental trend begins to reverse.<b>Be aware that at some levels, the situation at the beginning of 2018 was not as good as it is now</b>For example, at the short end of the rate hike cycle, the interest rate is rising, the implied leverage of market financing is as high as three times, and the equity risk premium is lower than the current one.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1c82301f4e415993015990d008d501\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/398354a88b7b00bffde467e334e129d0\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Finally, it should be pointed out that although long-term interest rates are rising rapidly,<b>But the financial market liquidity metrics and credit spreads we track have not shown significant tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522eafda13659c967fb09fdf4b7c4ffc\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Author: Liu Gang, CICC, Source: Kevin Strategy Research, Original title \"Overseas Markets: The Challenge of China's Too Fast Upside\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The last time US Treasury yields violently pulled up, what happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe last time US Treasury yields violently pulled up, what happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-26 08:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Overnight, the U.S. debt market fluctuated sharply, and the selling of the bond market pushed the long-term U.S. debt to close up rapidly. The 10-year U.S. debt interest rate not only broke through the key barrier of 1.5%, but also hit a high of 1.61% in the intraday session, a new high since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. The violent volatility of bonds quickly spread across assets to other assets, causing the U.S. stock market, especially growth stocks, to plummet, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3.5%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 falling 1.8% and 2.5% respectively. At the sector level, optional consumption, technology and communication services, which are high in valuation and sensitive to rising interest rates, have become the hardest hit areas, while safe-haven sectors such as public utilities, healthcare and banks benefiting from rising interest rates have experienced relatively little decline. At the same time, gold plummeted and the dollar rose.</p><p>The source of the sharp fluctuation of major asset prices is still the upward trend of bond interest rates, which is in the same vein as the recent market worries that the growth expectation is improving and the inflation is rising to push up interest rates, which may suppress the valuation and drag down the market. However, the rate of change has suddenly become violent, which is also worthy of our vigilance.<b>We have repeatedly suggested before that, in addition to absolute levels, the rate at which interest rates change is crucial, essentially reflecting the volatility of bond assets</b>。</p><p>Therefore, in view of the latest situation, we comment as follows for your reference.</p><p><b>1. Why do interest rates rise rapidly? The chain reaction after breaking through a critical barrier</b></p><p>In the general direction, the upward trend of the long-term interest rate of US debt is consistent with the recent improvement of the global overall epidemic situation, the acceleration of vaccination, and the gradual approach of a new round of 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus in the United States. At this point, the market has formed a sufficient consensus expectation, so it will not be repeated (\"After the 10-year US debt interest rate rose above 1.1%\", \"Spring Festival Inventory: Interest rate soared, oil price was overbought; The epidemic situation improved, and the stimulus was approaching\").</p><p>However, overnight rates suddenly accelerated upward,<b>We don't think we can rule out a ripple effect after bond interest rates break the key barrier and trigger some positions and derivatives anchored at this point, or even programmed trading orders</b>It is not a complete fundamental factor. After all, at present, the speculative position of the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt is still net long, and the sudden rise in interest rate will put it under pressure.<b>Therefore, this is also the reason why we suggest that we need to pay attention to breaking through the key barrier in the short term</b>(\"The Disturbance of Upward Rate: Lessons from 2018\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e74a112cb938257ccd8de4b5452adc7\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79604d78c8a870cacaddfd6086600977\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. How fast do interest rates go up? Fluctuations close to 2x SD</b></p><p>We have repeatedly emphasize that that absolute level of interest rate is one aspect,<b>In a sense, the speed of interest rate upward is more critical</b>Because the interest rate rising too quickly means that the bond market will experience violent fluctuations, and this fluctuation will \"infect\" other assets across assets, which is very similar to the fluctuation caused by the rapid breakthrough of 2.8% in US Treasury yields in early February 2018.</p><p>So, how quickly do overnight bond rates move? If measured at the high of 1.61%, the volatility of 10-year Treasury bonds is close to 2 times the standard deviation of the past year, which is already higher than the \"alert level\" of 1.5 times the standard deviation of our upward signal of interest rates, and the highest in early 2018 is close to 2.5 times.<b>Generally speaking, from historical experience, above this threshold alert level usually brings disturbance to the market.</b>Against this backdrop, the implied volatility of bond futures has also risen to a high since the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af78ac184d4226ffcefd35c6ec05240\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ee1037e24f9be747042526f8088891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. The challenge of upward real interest rate: higher real financing cost is not conducive to gold and high valuation</b></p><p>In the process of this round of higher interest rates,<b>Another feature is that real interest rates are dominant, rather than inflation expectations as the market generally refers to</b>This is consistent with what we suggest. Compared with the early January low, the 10-year nominal US Treasury yields has risen by more than 45 basis points, while real interest rates have contributed nearly 43 basis points, and inflation expectations have been roughly flat. The recent trend of gold is a good evidence, because gold tends to benefit from the upward trend of interest rates dominated by inflation expectations (implied that the real interest rate is under pressure or downward).</p><p><b>Actual inflation moves are often confused with nominal interest rates minus TIPs Implicit inflation expectations (breakeven) of real interest rates. We expect the upward trend of interest rates to be mainly based on real interest rates</b>, mainly considering: a) the implied real growth and return on investment recovery; b) The long-term inflation expectation is close to the upper edge of the long-term range of 2.2~2.5% (in the long run, this upper edge is relatively stable), which reflects the expectation of higher inflation in the future in advance; c) The short-end and long-end inflation expectations have been inverted, indicating that short-term bonds have included more expectations of higher inflation, and this inversion cannot be sustained from historical experience.</p><p><b>The upward trend of real interest rate not only implies the increase of real rate of return after deducting price factors, but also means the marginal increase of real financing cost</b>(Although it is still obviously negative at present, with a 10-year term of-0.61%), then the implication of higher real interest rate for asset prices is that, on the one hand, it is not conducive to gold, and on the other hand, it will also bring greater pressure on the marginal high valuation part, especially the part with congested transactions, excessive floating profits and higher financing leverage since then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef52da1b01866eedd4a022a2f3b9a90d\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98620b61bab182ef4e00c8e4df83901\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. What may happen next? Bonds are oversold; Stock markets focus on ripple effects in the short term, but medium-term moves are determined by fundamentals</b></p><p>First of all, from the perspective of interest rate itself, after yesterday's sharp fluctuation, the 10-year U.S. bond has touched the first-stage target point of 1.5% given in our annual outlook published at the end of last year, \"Overseas Market Outlook in 2021: Epidemic Path, Replenishment and Tongyou\". As the long-term Treasury Bond has been obviously oversold,<b>If there is no further chain reaction due to factors such as programmed trading of bonds or position unwind, it is possible to stabilize at this level and wait for the next catalyst factor.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22327d09a37aff72e0d2f14bdc6b1004\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, for the stock market, the volatility and stock market volatility caused by the sudden rise in overnight US Treasury yields are very similar in form to the situation in early February 2018 after the U.S. debt quickly broke through 2.8% 10 years after the non-agricultural data greatly exceeded expectations. At that time, the volatility of bond interest rates was as high as 2.5 times the standard deviation.</p><p><b>From the historical experience at that time, after the bond interest rate broke through the key barrier in early February and caused volatility, the reason why the subsequent market volatility was further amplified and prolonged was not only limited to the higher interest rate itself, but triggered the volatility strategy and high leverage crowded trading triggered a series of chain reactions</b>。 As we analyzed in \"The Disturbance of Upward Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\", looking back, if the interest rate went up simply without a series of subsequent chain reactions, it may not have caused such a large turbulent period in February 2018 that lasted for more than a month. The specific process is as follows: on Monday, February 5th, the further plunge of U.S. stocks caused VIX to soar by 116% (the single-day change exceeded that during the epidemic in 2020). The previously abnormally \"crowded\" bearish volatility position needed to be quickly covered, which also caused the ETF products that were bearish on VIX to plummet by 93% on Tuesday, triggering the early redemption clause in advance and liquidated. Some investment strategies (VolatilityTargeting) that directly or indirectly peg to volatility, such as Risk Parity and CTA (managed futures), need to adjust their exposure to risky assets in the new volatility environment, which also brings selling pressure to the spot market. In addition, crowded trading and higher financing leverage have also increased selling pressure on individual investors. Financial market liquidity indicators have also generally shown signs of tightening as a result.</p><p>However, it still needs to be emphasized that from a long-term and medium-term perspective,<b>After short-term fluctuations, the fundamental support table of U.S. stocks can still rebound and reach a new high. The reason behind this lies in the support of tax reform to profit at the end of 2017; It wasn't until October, when interest rates continued to move higher and growth peaked, that the market peaked outright.</b>After nearly two months of consolidation and fluctuation from February to March, U.S. stocks bottomed out and rebounded from the beginning of April and reached a new high until the beginning of October, when interest rates broke through 3% and growth peaked, and started a new round of decline. Compared with other markets at that time, such as the Chinese market, the fundamental reason why U.S. stocks can rebound and reach a new high lies in the additional promotion of corporate profits brought by the tax reform in 2017. In fact, this is not available in his market, and when the fundamental space is exhausted, the market becomes unsustainable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1282bf6413c6035a41385061aa932393\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/914d16d6516ec728b7fcde7ec8190ce7\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a812d954989f1ecfed856942880c72bf\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, the enlightenment of the experience in 2018 is that rising interest rates are indeed prone to disturbance in the context of full mood, high valuation and crowded transactions, especially the growth stocks with high valuation.<b>Now that it has broken through the key barrier and caused volatility, then we need to pay attention to whether it will trigger some chain reactions of programmed trading or leveraged trading to prolong and amplify volatility. However, the market trend in the medium-term dimension still depends on fundamentals</b>If the positive trend of fundamentals is still established, then the market can still get rid of the volatility caused by interest rate disturbance until the fundamental trend begins to reverse.<b>Be aware that at some levels, the situation at the beginning of 2018 was not as good as it is now</b>For example, at the short end of the rate hike cycle, the interest rate is rising, the implied leverage of market financing is as high as three times, and the equity risk premium is lower than the current one.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1c82301f4e415993015990d008d501\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/398354a88b7b00bffde467e334e129d0\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Finally, it should be pointed out that although long-term interest rates are rising rapidly,<b>But the financial market liquidity metrics and credit spreads we track have not shown significant tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522eafda13659c967fb09fdf4b7c4ffc\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Author: Liu Gang, CICC, Source: Kevin Strategy Research, Original title \"Overseas Markets: The Challenge of China's Too Fast Upside\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7789abffef4e8a7ef6093738b6ad06","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184986631","content_text":"隔夜美债市场出现大幅波动，债券市场遭到抛售推动长端美债快速收高，10年美债利率不仅突破关键关口1.5%，更是在盘中一度创下1.61%的高点，为2020年疫情爆发以来的新高。债券的剧烈波动迅速跨资产蔓延到其他资产，导致美股市场特别是成长股大跌，纳斯达克大跌3.5%，道琼斯和标普500指数分别下跌1.8%和2.5%。板块层面，估值偏高、对利率上行敏感的可选消费、科技、通信服务等成为重灾区，避险板块如公用事业、医疗保健、以及受益于利率上行的银行等跌幅相对较少。同时，黄金大跌，美元走高。主要资产价格的大幅波动的源头依然是债券利率上行，与近期市场担忧增长预期向好和通胀走高推升利率、进而可能压制估值拖累市场的担忧一脉相过程，只不过其变化速度一下子剧烈起来，这也值得我们警惕。我们此前多次提示过，除了绝对水平外，利率的变化速度也至关重要，其本质上反映了债券资产的波动。因此，针对当前最新的情况，我们点评如下，供大家参考。一、利率为何快速上行？突破关键关口后的连锁反应大方向上，美债长端利率的上行，与近期全球整体疫情改善、疫苗接种加速、美国新一轮1.9万亿财政刺激渐行渐近背景下，增长和通胀预期进一步向好的大方向一致，在这一点上市场已经形成较为充分的共识预计，因此不再赘述（《10年美债利率升破1.1%之后》、《春节盘点：利率骤升、油价超买；疫情改善，刺激渐近》）。不过，隔夜利率突然加速上行，我们认为不排除与债券利率突破关键关口后触发一些锚定在此点位的仓位和衍生品、甚至程序化交易指令后的连锁反应，而并非完全的基本面因素，毕竟目前来看，美债长端利率的投机性头寸依然为净多头，利率的突然上行会使其面临压力。因此，这也我们提示短期需要关注突破关键关口后的原因（《利率上行的扰动：来自2018年的经验》）。二、利率上行有多快？波动接近2倍标准差我们一再强调，利率绝对水平是一方面，在一定意义上，利率上行的速度更为关键，因为过快上行的利率意味着债券市场经历剧烈的波动，而这一波动又会跨资产的“传染”到其他资产，这一点与2018年2月初美债利率快速突破2.8%引发的波动极为相似。那么，隔夜债券利率的波动有多快呢？如果以1.61%的高点计，10年国债的波动率已经接近过去一年的2倍标准差，已经高于我们利率上行信号1.5倍标准差的“警戒水平”，2018年初最高接近2.5倍。一般而言，从历史经验看，高于这一阈值警戒水平通常会对市场带来扰动。在此背景下，债券期货隐含的波动率也升至疫情以来的高点。三、实际利率上行的挑战：真实融资成本走高不利于黄金和高估值部分在此轮利率走高的过程中，还有一个特点是以实际利率为主，而并非市场所泛指的通胀预期，这一点与我们提示的情形一致。相比1月初的低点，10年名义美债利率已经上行超过45个基点，而实际利率贡献了近43个基点，通胀预期则基本持平。黄金近期的走势就是一个很好的佐证，因为通胀预期为主的利率上行（隐含实际利率承压或下行），黄金往往会受益。实际的通胀走势与名义利率扣除TIPs实际利率隐含的通胀预期（breakeven）经常会被混淆。我们预计利率上行主要以实际利率为主，主要是考虑到：a）隐含的真实增长和投资回报率回升；b）长端通胀预期接近长期区间上沿2.2~2.5%（长期来看，这一上沿相对稳定），提前反应了未来通胀走高的预期；c）短端和长端的通胀预期已然倒挂，表明短期债券计入了更多通胀走高的预期，而这一倒挂从历史经验来看也不能持久。实际利率上行除了隐含扣除价格因素的实际回报率抬升外，也意味着真实的融资成本的边际走高（虽然目前依然明显为负，10年期-0.61%），那么实际利率走高对资产价格的含义是，一方面不利于黄金，另一方面也会对边际上高估值部分带来边际上更大的压力，特别是交易拥挤、浮盈过多、以及以来融资杠杆较高的部分。四、接下来可能会发生什么？债券超卖；股市短期关注连锁反应，但中期走势决定于基本面首先，从利率本身来看，经过昨天的大幅波动后，10年美债已经触及我们在去年底发表的年度展望《2021年海外市场展望：疫情径曲、补库通幽》中给出1.5%的第一阶段目标点位，由于长端国债已经明显超卖，如果不出现进一步因债券的程序化交易或仓位unwind等因素的连锁反应的话，有可能会在这个水平上稳一稳，等待下一个催化剂因素。其次，对于股市而言，隔夜美债利率骤升引发的波动率走高和股市波动，从形态上非常类似2018年2月初因非农数据大超预期后10年美债快速突破2.8%后的情形，当时债券利率的波动率高达2.5倍标准差。从当时历史经验看，在债券利率2月初突破关键关口并导致波动后，后续市场波动进一步被放大和延长的原因不仅限于利率走高本身，而是触发了波动率策略和高杠杆拥挤交易引发了一系列连锁反应。正如我们在《利率上行的扰动：来自2018年的经验》中分析的那样，后视来看，如果单纯的利率上行但没有后续的一系列连锁反应，可能也不至于造成2018年2月如此大幅且持续一个多月的动荡期。其具体过程为：2月5日周一，美股进一步大跌导致VIX骤升116%（单日变化幅度超过2020年疫情期间），此前异常“拥挤”的看空波动率头寸需要迅速回补，又使得看空VIX的ETF产品在周二大跌93%提前触发提前赎回条款而清盘，一些直接或间接盯住波动率的投资策略（VolatilityTargeting）如风险平价（Risk Parity）、CTA（管理期货）等需要在新的波动率环境下调整对风险资产的敞口也带来对现货市场的抛售压力。此外，拥挤交易和较高的融资杠杆也加大了个人投资者抛售压力。金融市场流动性指标也普遍因此出现收紧迹象。但是仍需要强调的是，拉长时间中期维度看，短期波动后，美股在基本面的支撑表依然能够反弹并再创新高，其背后的原因就在于2017年底税改对盈利的支撑；直到10月份利率继续走高且增长见顶后，市场才彻底见顶。在2月~3月经历了近2个月的盘整和波动后，美股从4月初见底反弹并再创新高，直到10月初在利率突破3%和增长见顶的双重压力下见顶，开启新一轮下跌。相比当时的其他市场比如中国市场，美股之所以还能够反弹并再创新高的根本原因在于2017年税改带来的对于企业盈利的额外推动，这一点其实他市场并不具备的，而当基本面的空间也被消耗殆尽后，市场便难以为继了。因此，2018年经验对于当下的启示是，利率走高在情绪饱满、估值偏高、交易拥挤的背景下的确容易带来扰动，特别是高估值的成长股部分，目前既然已经突破关键关口并引发波动，那么接下来我们需要关注是否会触发一些程序化交易或杠杆交易的连锁反应进而延长并放大波动，但是中期维度的市场走势还是取决于基本面，如果基本面的向好趋势依然确立，那么市场还是可以摆脱因利率扰动带来波动，直到基本面趋势也开始逆转。要知道在一些层面2018年初的情形还不如当前，例如处于加息周期短端利率抬升、市场融资盘隐含杠杆高达3倍、股权风险溢价较当前更低。最后，需要指出的是，虽然长端利率快速上行，但我们追踪的金融市场流动性指标和信用利差并未出现明显收紧。本文作者：中金公司刘刚，来源：Kevin策略研究，原文标题《海外市场：美债利率上行过快的挑战》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}