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2023-02-08

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2022-08-20

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US stocks welcome the "big test" again on Friday: the option contract of over $2 trillion is about to expire!

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10:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks welcome the \"big test\" again on Friday: the option contract of over $2 trillion is about to expire!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175877604","media":"智通财经网","summary":"人们相信衍生品市场在抑制波动性方面发挥了某种关键作。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Jinbin</p><p>Given that August remains by far the quietest month of the year for U.S. stocks, traders are keeping a close eye on the $2 trillion of options set to expire on Friday for signs of whether that lull will continue.</p><p>At the moment, the market debate is over the belief that the derivatives market plays some kind of key role in curbing volatility, thereby forcing rule-based quantitative traders to buy stocks, which in turn attracts a wider range of investors back into the market to chase gains.</p><p>But in the aftermath, some strategists warned that this benign activity in the options market, often driven by Wall Street traders, could disappear at a critical time.</p><p>From the upcoming annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, to awaiting inflation and employment data, to the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the coming weeks are full of catalysts that could trigger market disruption.</p><p>Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said: \"For a number of technical reasons, volatility may continue to be suppressed and the market may continue to gain relative support as the option contract expires this Friday. But when people refocus on the market, volatility may pick up again.\"</p><p>About $2 trillion in options contracts will expire, forcing holders to either roll over existing positions or start new ones. Rocky Fishman, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, estimates that about $975 billion of options contracts related to the S&P 500 index and $430 billion of options contracts related to individual stocks will expire this Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93113ec4911592a6649582c5bf511466\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since mid-June, stocks have recovered about $7 trillion in market capitalization as investors who exited the stock market during the first-half stock market crash over concerns that the Fed's aggressive anti-inflation moves could tip the economy into recession went from an initial short squeeze to a big buying spree. Since then, stocks have continued to pick up as data showed strength in the job market and lower-than-expected inflation.</p><p>Along the way, traders flocked to the call options market to catch up with a surprise rally in stocks. When balancing their books, options traders are trapped in \"long gamma\" positions, which requires them to maintain neutral market exposure against current stock trends. Therefore, under the influence of this process, the market returned to calm. According to the Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) volatility index VIX, the index averaged 21 in August and is on track to reach its lowest level since November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e527d06b419c21721b91a4f6f7d8dc\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While from a broad perspective, call contracts are changing hands faster than put contracts, with the 10-day average of the put-to-call ratio for CBOE stocks hovering around a four-month low, suggesting that investor interest in betting on the upside of the stock market is increasing.</p><p>Brent Kochuba, founder of analytics services firm SpotGamma, said traders will try to push the S&P 500 up to 4,300 to make their options contracts pay off. Failure to meet this threshold means the recent rally is waning, which could attract more sellers. \"Everyone is on the 'side of the bulls' right now,\" Kochuba said.</p><p>Charlie McElligott, cross-asset strategist at Nomura, expects Friday's option expiration to open the door to greater price volatility after the buffering effect of dealer hedges wanes.</p><p>If inflation is higher than expected, Fed policymakers will also become more hawkish in their language, which will trigger turmoil across asset markets, he said. On the other hand, barring any negative macro shocks, fund managers are under pressure to continue chasing the upside because of their relatively low equity positions.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks welcome the \"big test\" again on Friday: the option contract of over $2 trillion is about to expire!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks welcome the \"big test\" again on Friday: the option contract of over $2 trillion is about to expire!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-19 10:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Jinbin</p><p>Given that August remains by far the quietest month of the year for U.S. stocks, traders are keeping a close eye on the $2 trillion of options set to expire on Friday for signs of whether that lull will continue.</p><p>At the moment, the market debate is over the belief that the derivatives market plays some kind of key role in curbing volatility, thereby forcing rule-based quantitative traders to buy stocks, which in turn attracts a wider range of investors back into the market to chase gains.</p><p>But in the aftermath, some strategists warned that this benign activity in the options market, often driven by Wall Street traders, could disappear at a critical time.</p><p>From the upcoming annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, to awaiting inflation and employment data, to the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the coming weeks are full of catalysts that could trigger market disruption.</p><p>Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said: \"For a number of technical reasons, volatility may continue to be suppressed and the market may continue to gain relative support as the option contract expires this Friday. But when people refocus on the market, volatility may pick up again.\"</p><p>About $2 trillion in options contracts will expire, forcing holders to either roll over existing positions or start new ones. Rocky Fishman, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, estimates that about $975 billion of options contracts related to the S&P 500 index and $430 billion of options contracts related to individual stocks will expire this Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93113ec4911592a6649582c5bf511466\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since mid-June, stocks have recovered about $7 trillion in market capitalization as investors who exited the stock market during the first-half stock market crash over concerns that the Fed's aggressive anti-inflation moves could tip the economy into recession went from an initial short squeeze to a big buying spree. Since then, stocks have continued to pick up as data showed strength in the job market and lower-than-expected inflation.</p><p>Along the way, traders flocked to the call options market to catch up with a surprise rally in stocks. When balancing their books, options traders are trapped in \"long gamma\" positions, which requires them to maintain neutral market exposure against current stock trends. Therefore, under the influence of this process, the market returned to calm. According to the Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) volatility index VIX, the index averaged 21 in August and is on track to reach its lowest level since November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e527d06b419c21721b91a4f6f7d8dc\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While from a broad perspective, call contracts are changing hands faster than put contracts, with the 10-day average of the put-to-call ratio for CBOE stocks hovering around a four-month low, suggesting that investor interest in betting on the upside of the stock market is increasing.</p><p>Brent Kochuba, founder of analytics services firm SpotGamma, said traders will try to push the S&P 500 up to 4,300 to make their options contracts pay off. Failure to meet this threshold means the recent rally is waning, which could attract more sellers. \"Everyone is on the 'side of the bulls' right now,\" Kochuba said.</p><p>Charlie McElligott, cross-asset strategist at Nomura, expects Friday's option expiration to open the door to greater price volatility after the buffering effect of dealer hedges wanes.</p><p>If inflation is higher than expected, Fed policymakers will also become more hawkish in their language, which will trigger turmoil across asset markets, he said. On the other hand, barring any negative macro shocks, fund managers are under pressure to continue chasing the upside because of their relatively low equity positions.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/774154.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/774154.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1175877604","content_text":"作者： 赵锦彬鉴于8月迄今仍为美国股市今年最为平静的一个月，交易员们正密切关注即将在周五到期的2万亿美元期权，以寻找这种平静是否会延续下去的迹象。目前，市场争论的焦点在于，人们相信衍生品市场在抑制波动性方面发挥了某种关键作用，从而迫使基于规则的量化交易员购买股票，进而吸引更广泛的投资者重返市场以追逐收益。但在这之后，一些策略师警告称，期权市场的这种良性活动(通常由华尔街交易商推动)可能会在关键时刻消失。从即将召开的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，到等待公布的通胀和就业数据，再到美联储的政策声明，未来几周都充满了可能引发市场混乱的催化剂。加拿大皇家银行资本市场股票衍生品策略师Amy Wu Silverman表示：“由于一些技术原因，在本周五期权合约到期之际，波动性可能会继续受到抑制，市场可能会继续获得相对支撑。但当人们重新聚精会神盯紧市场时，波动性可能会重新回升。”约2万亿美元的期权合约将到期，迫使持有人要么展期现有头寸，要么开始新的头寸。据高盛策略师Rocky Fishman估计，其中有约9750亿美元与标普500指数相关的期权合约和4300亿美元与个股相关的期权合约将于本周五到期。自6月中旬以来，由于在上半年股市大跌期间因担心美联储激进的抗通胀举措可能令经济陷入衰退而退出股市的投资者，从最初的逼空变成了大举买入，股市已经恢复了约7万亿美元的市值。此后，随着数据显示就业市场的强劲，且通胀低于预期，股市继续有所回升。一路上，交易员们蜂拥至看涨期权市场，以赶上股市出人意料的反弹。在平衡账目时，期权交易商被困在“long gamma”(指做多波动率)头寸中，这使得他们需要逆着当前的股票趋势保持中性的市场敞口。因此在这一进程的一定作用下，市场恢复了平静。据芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)波动率指数VIX显示，该指数在8月份的平均水平为21，有望达到去年11月以来的最低水平。而从广泛的角度看，看涨合约的易手速度要快于看跌合约，CBOE股票看跌期权与看涨期权比率的10日平均水平徘徊在四个月低点附近，这表明投资者对股市上行的押注兴趣正在增加。分析服务公司SpotGamma创始人Brent Kochuba表示，交易员将试图把标普500指数推高至4300点，以使其期权合约获得回报。如果未能达到这一门槛，则意味着最近的反弹势头正在减弱，这可能会引来更多卖家。“现在每个人都站在‘多头一方’，”Kochuba表示。野村证券跨资产策略师Charlie McElligott预计，在交易商对冲的缓冲作用减弱后，周五的期权到期将为更大的价格波动打开大门。他表示，如果通胀高于预期，美联储政策制定者的措辞也会变得更加鹰派，这将引发整个资产市场的动荡。另一方面，除非出现任何负面的宏观冲击，否则基金经理面临着继续追逐上涨的压力，因为他们的股票头寸相对较低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9991792702,"gmtCreate":1660876575909,"gmtModify":1676536416969,"author":{"id":"3572958738473495","authorId":"3572958738473495","name":"LI_CHUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e79a6fd440b62595feb97d20d45237","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572958738473495","idStr":"3572958738473495"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$美国银行(BAC)$</a>up","listText":"<a 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