5207418 Ansome personal page - To The Moon

5207418 Ansome

5207418 Ansome

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03-21

$甘李药业(603087)$

03-21

$甘李药业(603087)$ long term investment

03-21

$海康威视(002415)$ good stock

03-21

$海康威视(002415)$ good

02-26

$甘李药业(603087)$ good

02-17

$甘李药业(603087)$ good

02-17

$海康威视(002415)$

2024-07-10

$上证50ETF(510050)$

2023-12-29

good

Hong Kong stocks open | The Hang Seng Index opened 0.13% higher, and the Science and Technology Index opened 0.38% higher! Tech, Auto Stocks Extend Rally

2023-04-19

[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

2023-04-18

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2023-04-17

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2023-04-16

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2023-04-15

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2023-04-14

[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

2023-04-13

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2023-04-12

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2023-04-11

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2023-04-10

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2023-04-08

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Tech, Auto Stocks Extend Rally","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193609126","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月29日，港股开盘，恒指开涨0.13%，科指开涨0.38%。科技、汽车股延续涨势，美团涨2%领涨蓝筹，蔚来、小鹏汽车涨超2%。优必选上市首日低开0.11%，每股定价90港元，公开发售获5.16倍认购。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On December 29th, the Hang Seng Index opened up 22.99 points, or 0.13%, to 17,066.52 points; The Hang Seng Technology Index opened up 14.12 points, or 0.38%, at 3778.02; The State-owned Enterprises Index opened up 15.68 points, or 0.27%, to 5,780.45 points; The red-chip index opened down 1.03 points, or 0.03 percent, at 3,325.84.</p><p>Technology and auto stocks extended their gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Up 2% to lead blue chips,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Up nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors-W</a>It rose more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09880\">Youbixuan</a>On the first day of listing, open low was 0.11%, priced at HK$90 per share, and the public offering was subscribed by 5.16 times.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open | The Hang Seng Index opened 0.13% higher, and the Science and Technology Index opened 0.38% higher! Tech, Auto Stocks Extend Rally</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open | The Hang Seng Index opened 0.13% higher, and the Science and Technology Index opened 0.38% higher! Tech, Auto Stocks Extend Rally\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-12-29 09:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On December 29th, the Hang Seng Index opened up 22.99 points, or 0.13%, to 17,066.52 points; The Hang Seng Technology Index opened up 14.12 points, or 0.38%, at 3778.02; The State-owned Enterprises Index opened up 15.68 points, or 0.27%, to 5,780.45 points; The red-chip index opened down 1.03 points, or 0.03 percent, at 3,325.84.</p><p>Technology and auto stocks extended their gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Up 2% to lead blue chips,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Up nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors-W</a>It rose more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09880\">Youbixuan</a>On the first day of listing, open low was 0.11%, priced at HK$90 per share, and the public offering was subscribed by 5.16 times.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSI":"恒生指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193609126","content_text":"12月29日，恒生指数开盘上涨22.99点，涨幅0.13%，报17066.52点；恒生科技指数开盘上涨14.12点，涨幅0.38%，报3778.02点；国企指数开盘上涨15.68点，涨幅0.27%，报5780.45点；红筹指数开盘下跌1.03点，跌幅0.03%，报3325.84点。科技、汽车股延续涨势，美团-W涨2%领涨蓝筹，哔哩哔哩-W涨近3%，蔚来-SW、小鹏汽车-W涨超2%。优必选上市首日低开0.11%，每股定价90港元，公开发售获5.16倍认购。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.6,"HSImain":1,"02833":0.6,"MHImain":1,"HSI":1,"HHImain":0.6,"HSTECH":1.1,"MCHmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944514737,"gmtCreate":1681914074629,"gmtModify":1681914078960,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 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it","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81e7b76341d12ad7bd6fed933dc18cf4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089735027","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":545128736801824,"gmtCreate":1774099242047,"gmtModify":1774099244998,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/603087\">$甘李药业(603087)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/603087\">$甘李药业(603087)$ 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</a> good stock","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002415\">$海康威视(002415)$ </a> good stock","text":"$海康威视(002415)$ good stock","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11c903ae15f258c7391f7bb1bcdd6ed9","width":"882","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/545128640861560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":545128217596072,"gmtCreate":1774099074239,"gmtModify":1774099077916,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002415\">$海康威视(002415)$ </a> good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002415\">$海康威视(002415)$ </a> good","text":"$海康威视(002415)$ good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0b6a24070cfe89c3af192cef3e863c","width":"882","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/545128217596072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011985015,"gmtCreate":1648803862790,"gmtModify":1676534401323,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>buy","text":"$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$buy","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/60372d00325aaf6603bd63346531a9b9","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011985015","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098028666,"gmtCreate":1643978644007,"gmtModify":1676533877988,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098028666","repostId":"1159530168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159530168","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643941703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159530168?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-04 10:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The Winter Olympics open today, and I see a trillion-level investment opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159530168","media":"投中网","summary":"“科技冬奥”成为了北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主要特色。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games.</b>On the evening of February 4, the opening ceremony of the XXIV Winter Olympic Games was held at the National Stadium. As a result, Beijing will also become the only city in the world to have hosted both the Summer Olympics and the Winter Olympics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2642a40bccd5e127fa718128d6d254bd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that, unlike the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics are naturally affected by environmental, climate and other factors. At the same time, this Winter Olympics is the first Winter Olympics held under the background of continental monsoon climate in nearly 20 years. In addition, the current global COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading, and the overall difficulty of hosting can be imagined.</p><p>For example, the team from Tsinghua University, with the support of multiple data and machine learning, combined with bioinformatics and other disciplines, designed a set of epidemic monitoring and early warning system that can be used for closed-loop management of the Winter Olympics. Assuming that there is a sudden epidemic during the game, high-risk groups, susceptible areas, susceptible behaviors and weaknesses in epidemic prevention and control can be screened out in time and accurately, and a technical barrier for epidemic prevention can be built for the Winter Olympics with science and technology.</p><p>Earlier, the director of the Expert Committee of Science and Technology Winter Olympics said in an exclusive interview with Phoenix Satellite TV: \"After the emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic, safety issues have been placed in a very prominent position in the process of preparing for the Winter Olympics. The research results of scientific researchers can not only be applied to this Winter Olympics, but also be valuable experience for social epidemic prevention and control and other large-scale international activities.\"</p><p>Such things are just the tip of the iceberg in the preparations for the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to the data published in the Guide for the Declaration of Key Special Orientation Projects of the Science and Technology Winter Olympics, in order to support the successful completion and landing of the Science and Technology Winter Olympics project, the total estimated budget of the state allocated funds in 2018-2021 is about 1.49 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the data of Beijing Science and Technology Commission, more than 200 technologies have been tested and used in the Winter Olympics scenario, involving information engineering and software engineering, public safety, high-definition video, 5G and new energy.</p><p>It is precisely because of this that \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games, and even some industry comments say that this year's Beijing Winter Olympics will become a world-class science and technology exhibition.</p><p>Take the torch \"Flying\" of this Winter Olympics as an example. It is reported that the torch was designed by Li Jianye, the chief industrial designer of Alibaba. He said that the torch shell pioneered the lightweight and high-temperature resistant \"carbon fiber\" material, which is not only fire-resistant and high-temperature resistant, but also resistant to 10-level strong winds and rainstorms. At the same time, the torch also uses environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel, which makes the carbon emission of the torch \"zero\" when it burns, and its characteristics also ensure that the torch can be used in extremely cold weather.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital RMB, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robots and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious, which may bring a trillion-level investment opportunity.</p><p><b>Infrastructure painted by technology</b></p><p>When it comes to competitions, the first thing many people pay attention to is the venue. From the well-known Bird's Nest and Water Cube to the ice ribbon and snow dragon that came into the public eye in this Winter Olympics, each unique design embodies ingenuity and wisdom.</p><p>Different from the past, in order to better welcome this Winter Olympics, each competition venue has carried out some \"technology\" packaging. For example, as the only newly-built ice venue in Beijing's competition area, National Speed Skating Oval \"Ice Ribbon\" adopts the single-layer two-way orthogonal saddle-shaped cable net roof with the largest span in the world, and the steel consumption is only 1/4 of that of traditional roof.</p><p>Similarly, the National Snowmobile Sled Center, known as \"Snow Dragon\", adopts \"millimeter-level\" hyperboloid concrete spraying and finishing molding technology, and the 1.9-kilometer track is sprayed and molded at one time. With the blessing of technology, Water Cube realized the site conversion from water to ice within 20 days. With the help of the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence technology, the Bird's Nest has turned into a digital, low-carbon and intelligent sports venue.</p><p>Of course, the above is only a small part of the competition venues of many scientific and technological fans of the Winter Olympics, but this is enough to see that this Winter Olympics has started the scientific and technological layout from the most basic facilities.</p><p>Besides the venues, the most inseparable thing for the Winter Olympics is ice and snow. As we mentioned at the beginning, Beijing belongs to the continental monsoon climate zone. Therefore, there are two \"black technologies\" in this Winter Olympics-artificial snow and \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>It is understood that this Winter Olympics will be the first ever to use 100% artificial snow. The characteristic of artificial snow is that the ice content is high, which is 20% higher than that of natural snow. Such characteristics also bring positive and negative effects. On the one hand, artificial snow may increase the possibility of athletes' injuries. On the other hand, artificial snow can overcome the differences in snow field characteristics and make competition fairer.</p><p>Not only that, the \"Ice Ribbon\" venue also creatively adopts carbon dioxide transcritical direct cooling ice making technology, which ensures constant ice surface temperature and better ice surface quality, thus becoming the \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>If the venues and ice and snow environment are still artificially controllable factors, then the climate change in the Winter Olympics is a change factor that can't be ignored. The reason behind this is that 70% of the events in the Winter Olympics are snow events, and most of them are held in mountainous areas with complex terrain.</p><p>Therefore, meteorological support has become the top priority of ice and snow sports. So far, the meteorological support project has achieved certain scientific and technological innovation achievements, especially the \"100-meter-level and minute-level\" forecast for the first time. As we all know, even if we are in the plain area, it is impossible for the current weather software to achieve \"100 meters and minutes\", but in the mountains, it is even more arduous to face the technical challenge to this extent.</p><p>In general event venues, a large number of physical fence protection or a large number of manpower will be used for security work. However, the Winter Olympics are mostly in the deep mountains with complex terrain, with harsh climate and environmental conditions, and the temperature difference between day and night is as high as tens of degrees. Therefore, the application of intelligent sentinel robot was born.</p><p>By deploying intelligent sentinel robots in the Zhangjiakou competition area of this Winter Olympics, it can automatically and accurately judge the category of intruders in daily monitoring, and upload the monitored situation or the whereabouts of intruders to the command center in the background, effectively improving the efficiency of security staff and ensuring the safety of the Winter Olympics. Its lowest low temperature tolerance is also over-forty degrees.</p><p>In Wukesong Sports Center, an ice hockey stadium in Beijing, there are also service robots officially on duty. It is understood that 12 security service robots provide contactless ticket checking for audiences to enter the venue, and can complete eight processes such as identity verification, intelligent temperature measurement, health code inquiry and vaccination inquiry within 1 second. On the periphery of the venue, four intelligent service robots provide information guidance, interactive Q&A, and explain the whole process of Winter Olympics.</p><p>In addition, China has developed and put into use the first 5G +8K broadcast car in China, which will provide the public with high-quality off-site viewing services. In this way, the upcoming 8K channel will give viewers the opportunity to see 8K games on TV during the game, and also the opportunity to see ultra-high-definition pictures through 8K terminals in Winter Olympics venues, city squares and other places.</p><p><b>Smart Life Everywhere</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the core of sports competition is still people. How to help athletes get better play in training, life and competition with the help of scientific and technological means is fundamental.</p><p>Take the curling sport, in which the Chinese team won two consecutive victories two days before the start of the competition, as an example. In 2019, the research and development of curling robots began. This project is a national key special project of the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" of the Ministry of Science and Technology. Curling robots make up for the shortage of curling tactical analysis methods and assist athletes in training by using advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, image recognition and automatic control.</p><p>In terms of food, the Beijing Winter Olympics used self-developed ultra-micro trusted chips, combined with the non-tamperable and traceable characteristics of blockchain, to build a food safety guarantee platform for the Winter Olympics, which provided strong support for the catering service of the Winter Olympics.</p><p>It is undeniable that before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robot applications have been accompanied by smart restaurants out of the circle and swiped screens on major social media platforms. Robots are no longer a new species, so why can they get such high attention?</p><p>It turns out that the smart restaurant is located in the main media center of Beijing Winter Olympics. The restaurant covers an area of more than 3,680 square meters, which is divided into automatic bar area, Chinese food cloud track area and media dining area. It is understood that the smart restaurant is equipped with 120 meal-making robots, and the intelligent and automated catering equipment in the restaurant can run 24 hours a day, ensuring the automation of the whole process of ordering, preparing and serving, and serving thousands of people at the same time.</p><p>Surprisingly, there are no chefs or waiters in the restaurant to serve food. Chinese and Western food cooking and cocktail preparation are all done by robots. Diners scan a QR code on the table to order, and then a robot chef in the kitchen starts making it. All robots are behind clear glass, so everyone can see the cooking process.</p><p>Finally, the robot completes the whole food delivery process, and the dishes will be delivered through the cloud rail system at the top of the restaurant. When the robot moves above the desired dining table, a tray of food \"falls from the sky\" along with a lowered cable, hovering in front of people for their access. According to the video, the way of serving food is somewhat similar to that of \"weightless\" restaurants.</p><p>Robots working in restaurants are just the tip of the iceberg for robotics applications throughout the Winter Olympics.</p><p>In terms of epidemic prevention, there are atomization disinfection robots in efficient disinfection scenes, distribution robots in material distribution scenes, cleaning robots responsible for intelligent cleaning, inspection robots responsible for reminding and disinfection services and many other types.</p><p>For example, the disinfection robot of Water Cube can automatically avoid obstacles and charge itself. The intelligent disinfection system built by AI big data can visualize, digitize and trace the disinfection of the venue, which can meet the needs of cleaning and disinfection of nearly 8,600 square meters of public areas in different areas of the venue.</p><p>The Beijing Winter Olympics also built an arrival and departure information system. On the basis of big data, cloud computing and other information technologies, it provided arrival and departure services for 32,000 Olympic customers during the competition by means of seamless connection of multiple systems and data sharing.</p><p>There is another eye-catching invention in this Winter Olympics: a wearable thermometer-\"underarm band-aid\" is an early warning for epidemic prevention and control. The chip sensor of this temperature measurement device is only the size of sand grains, and the temperature measurement can be accurate to 0.05°C, so as to accurately and quickly lock people with abnormal body temperature. Moreover, this innovation will provide technical support for contactless temperature monitoring of groups that will hold large-scale activities in the future.</p><p>The application of intelligent robots not only improves the color and efficiency of science and technology, but also increases the proportion of non-contact services, reduces the direct contact between people, and effectively reduces the infection risk of athletes and staff.</p><p>In terms of wear, China's self-developed alpine skiing training protective clothing adopts a new columnar array resistance structure and a new energy-absorbing cushioning material, which can effectively protect the shoulders and legs of alpine skiers.</p><p>In terms of accommodation, 6,000 smart beds provided by Qisheng Technology for athletes and team officials from all over the world have received unanimous praise and praise. It is reported that Summer Bricher, a female sleigh athlete of the United States Winter Olympics delegation, praised the smart beds on Tiktok, a video social media, and quickly became popular all over the world.</p><p>In terms of medical treatment, the relevant data released by the International Olympic Committee shows that due to the difficulty and danger of the Winter Olympic events, and the low-temperature environment, the injury probability of athletes in the snow events of the Winter Olympic Games is about 10%-14%. In this regard, the Beijing Winter Olympics also comprehensively improved the level of smart medical care. Such as building an intelligent mobile shelter; 5G telemedicine; Strengthen the application of wearable medical-grade intelligent devices; Research and develop public space aerosol COVID-19 detection system and so on.</p><p><b>New investment opportunities have surfaced</b></p><p>According to the budget data released by the Deputy Minister of Finance and Market Development of the Beijing Winter Olympics Bidding Committee, the budgeted revenue and expenditure for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were both US$1.51 billion, far lower than the RMB280 billion for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Among them, 65% of the construction budget of Beijing Winter Olympics venues comes from social investment.</p><p>While expenses have decreased, revenues are not optimistic accordingly. With reference to last year's 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games, a large number of events were held empty, which reduced the proportion of ticket revenue (12%), which was significantly lower than the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro (16%). At a time when the epidemic situation has not yet stabilized, the Beijing Winter Olympics will also face the same situation.</p><p>Fortunately, at present, there are as many as 50 known industries directly or indirectly related to the Olympic Games, and the investment-driving effect brought by them is still strong. The official holding of this Winter Olympics still has the potential to become a capital feast.</p><p>The secondary market response is the most obvious. It is understood that there are currently more than 50 listed companies in A shares to help the Beijing Winter Olympics, in terms of venue construction, technical support, supporting transportation facilities, licensed commodity sales, sponsorship and supply services.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital RMB, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robots and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious.</p><p>First of all, taking digital RMB as an example, the pilot of digital RMB is a highlight of the Beijing Winter Olympics. At present, 355,000 Winter Olympics scenes have been successfully landed, achieving full coverage of transportation, catering and accommodation, shopping and consumption scenes.</p><p>The accelerated promotion of digital RMB has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. In the past three months, more than 50% of the stocks in this sector have increased by more than 20%. At the same time, the payment hardware market in its upstream and downstream industrial chains, the bank IT upgrading market, and the promotion and scene service companies serving digital RMB have also attracted the attention of capital.</p><p>Secondly, it is no surprise that this Winter Olympics has also become a stage for the competition of new energy vehicles. According to the official statistics of the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, among the transportation service vehicles for the Winter Olympics, energy-saving and clean energy vehicles accounted for 100% of passenger cars and 85.84% of all vehicles, the highest in all previous Winter Olympics. During the Winter Olympics, over 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles (i.e. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will also be demonstrated and operated, equipped with more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations.</p><p>Again, it is worth mentioning that hydrogen energy, as the most promising secondary energy in the 21st century, also ushered in a new upsurge of development during the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to incomplete statistics, as of December 2021, there were about 85 investment projects related to hydrogen energy fuel cells, with a total investment amount of about 185.713 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the forecast of the International Hydrogen Energy Commission, by 2050, hydrogen energy will bear 18% of the global energy terminal demand, creating a market value of more than 2.5 trillion USD, and the global proportion of fuel cell vehicles will increase to 20%-25%. It should be pointed out that hydrogen fuel cell opportunities are more concentrated in the commercial vehicle segment.</p><p>In addition, this year's Beijing Winter Olympics has completed the migration of core systems to the cloud. This is the first time in the history of the Olympic Games that cloud computing has replaced traditional IT. So far, the core Olympic event results, event broadcast, information release, athletes' arrival and departure, medical care, accommodation, transportation and other information systems have been migrated to Alibaba Cloud.</p><p>The comprehensive cloud movement of this Winter Olympics has also brought new possibilities for the live broadcast and broadcast of events and the audience's viewing experience, such as solving the huge amount of news collection and editing, and providing technical support for the application of AR/VR equipment and high-definition video.</p><p>In addition, the emergence of virtual people has also contributed to the new experience of watching games. Taking AI sign language anchors as an example, they can not only report news, but also broadcast live sign language of events, which will bring good news to the hearing impaired.</p><p>Of course, as AR/VR hardware and virtual people that are ignited by the metaverse, these two fields are also the darlings of capital this year. Taking virtual humans as an example, in 2021 alone, there were more than 60,000 new virtual human-related enterprises in China; The investment field is even more generous. Less than a month after the beginning of 2022, the cumulative amount of nearly 100 financings in the virtual human field has exceeded 400 million yuan.</p><p>In addition, the ubiquitous behind-the-scenes hero artificial intelligence and the robots active in the front line will also be blown into the wind again by the east wind of Beijing Winter Olympics, especially disinfection robots, service robots and epidemic prevention robots, which are expected to be extended to daily life on a large scale after the Winter Olympics.</p><p>From the first use of electronic timing for the Stockholm Olympics in 1912, the first television broadcast of the Berlin Olympics in 1936, and the opening of the world's first high-speed rail on the eve of the Tokyo Olympics in 1964, we can see that the opening of the Olympic Games is always accompanied by the birth of new scientific and technological achievements.</p><p>We also have reason to believe that these scientific and technological achievements of this Winter Olympics will move from the field to the daily life, and with the blessing of capital, they can become a new bright spot of public life.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Winter Olympics open today, and I see a trillion-level investment opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Winter Olympics open today, and I see a trillion-level investment opportunity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-04 10:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games.</b>On the evening of February 4, the opening ceremony of the XXIV Winter Olympic Games was held at the National Stadium. As a result, Beijing will also become the only city in the world to have hosted both the Summer Olympics and the Winter Olympics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2642a40bccd5e127fa718128d6d254bd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that, unlike the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics are naturally affected by environmental, climate and other factors. At the same time, this Winter Olympics is the first Winter Olympics held under the background of continental monsoon climate in nearly 20 years. In addition, the current global COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading, and the overall difficulty of hosting can be imagined.</p><p>For example, the team from Tsinghua University, with the support of multiple data and machine learning, combined with bioinformatics and other disciplines, designed a set of epidemic monitoring and early warning system that can be used for closed-loop management of the Winter Olympics. Assuming that there is a sudden epidemic during the game, high-risk groups, susceptible areas, susceptible behaviors and weaknesses in epidemic prevention and control can be screened out in time and accurately, and a technical barrier for epidemic prevention can be built for the Winter Olympics with science and technology.</p><p>Earlier, the director of the Expert Committee of Science and Technology Winter Olympics said in an exclusive interview with Phoenix Satellite TV: \"After the emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic, safety issues have been placed in a very prominent position in the process of preparing for the Winter Olympics. The research results of scientific researchers can not only be applied to this Winter Olympics, but also be valuable experience for social epidemic prevention and control and other large-scale international activities.\"</p><p>Such things are just the tip of the iceberg in the preparations for the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to the data published in the Guide for the Declaration of Key Special Orientation Projects of the Science and Technology Winter Olympics, in order to support the successful completion and landing of the Science and Technology Winter Olympics project, the total estimated budget of the state allocated funds in 2018-2021 is about 1.49 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the data of Beijing Science and Technology Commission, more than 200 technologies have been tested and used in the Winter Olympics scenario, involving information engineering and software engineering, public safety, high-definition video, 5G and new energy.</p><p>It is precisely because of this that \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games, and even some industry comments say that this year's Beijing Winter Olympics will become a world-class science and technology exhibition.</p><p>Take the torch \"Flying\" of this Winter Olympics as an example. It is reported that the torch was designed by Li Jianye, the chief industrial designer of Alibaba. He said that the torch shell pioneered the lightweight and high-temperature resistant \"carbon fiber\" material, which is not only fire-resistant and high-temperature resistant, but also resistant to 10-level strong winds and rainstorms. At the same time, the torch also uses environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel, which makes the carbon emission of the torch \"zero\" when it burns, and its characteristics also ensure that the torch can be used in extremely cold weather.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital RMB, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robots and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious, which may bring a trillion-level investment opportunity.</p><p><b>Infrastructure painted by technology</b></p><p>When it comes to competitions, the first thing many people pay attention to is the venue. From the well-known Bird's Nest and Water Cube to the ice ribbon and snow dragon that came into the public eye in this Winter Olympics, each unique design embodies ingenuity and wisdom.</p><p>Different from the past, in order to better welcome this Winter Olympics, each competition venue has carried out some \"technology\" packaging. For example, as the only newly-built ice venue in Beijing's competition area, National Speed Skating Oval \"Ice Ribbon\" adopts the single-layer two-way orthogonal saddle-shaped cable net roof with the largest span in the world, and the steel consumption is only 1/4 of that of traditional roof.</p><p>Similarly, the National Snowmobile Sled Center, known as \"Snow Dragon\", adopts \"millimeter-level\" hyperboloid concrete spraying and finishing molding technology, and the 1.9-kilometer track is sprayed and molded at one time. With the blessing of technology, Water Cube realized the site conversion from water to ice within 20 days. With the help of the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence technology, the Bird's Nest has turned into a digital, low-carbon and intelligent sports venue.</p><p>Of course, the above is only a small part of the competition venues of many scientific and technological fans of the Winter Olympics, but this is enough to see that this Winter Olympics has started the scientific and technological layout from the most basic facilities.</p><p>Besides the venues, the most inseparable thing for the Winter Olympics is ice and snow. As we mentioned at the beginning, Beijing belongs to the continental monsoon climate zone. Therefore, there are two \"black technologies\" in this Winter Olympics-artificial snow and \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>It is understood that this Winter Olympics will be the first ever to use 100% artificial snow. The characteristic of artificial snow is that the ice content is high, which is 20% higher than that of natural snow. Such characteristics also bring positive and negative effects. On the one hand, artificial snow may increase the possibility of athletes' injuries. On the other hand, artificial snow can overcome the differences in snow field characteristics and make competition fairer.</p><p>Not only that, the \"Ice Ribbon\" venue also creatively adopts carbon dioxide transcritical direct cooling ice making technology, which ensures constant ice surface temperature and better ice surface quality, thus becoming the \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>If the venues and ice and snow environment are still artificially controllable factors, then the climate change in the Winter Olympics is a change factor that can't be ignored. The reason behind this is that 70% of the events in the Winter Olympics are snow events, and most of them are held in mountainous areas with complex terrain.</p><p>Therefore, meteorological support has become the top priority of ice and snow sports. So far, the meteorological support project has achieved certain scientific and technological innovation achievements, especially the \"100-meter-level and minute-level\" forecast for the first time. As we all know, even if we are in the plain area, it is impossible for the current weather software to achieve \"100 meters and minutes\", but in the mountains, it is even more arduous to face the technical challenge to this extent.</p><p>In general event venues, a large number of physical fence protection or a large number of manpower will be used for security work. However, the Winter Olympics are mostly in the deep mountains with complex terrain, with harsh climate and environmental conditions, and the temperature difference between day and night is as high as tens of degrees. Therefore, the application of intelligent sentinel robot was born.</p><p>By deploying intelligent sentinel robots in the Zhangjiakou competition area of this Winter Olympics, it can automatically and accurately judge the category of intruders in daily monitoring, and upload the monitored situation or the whereabouts of intruders to the command center in the background, effectively improving the efficiency of security staff and ensuring the safety of the Winter Olympics. Its lowest low temperature tolerance is also over-forty degrees.</p><p>In Wukesong Sports Center, an ice hockey stadium in Beijing, there are also service robots officially on duty. It is understood that 12 security service robots provide contactless ticket checking for audiences to enter the venue, and can complete eight processes such as identity verification, intelligent temperature measurement, health code inquiry and vaccination inquiry within 1 second. On the periphery of the venue, four intelligent service robots provide information guidance, interactive Q&A, and explain the whole process of Winter Olympics.</p><p>In addition, China has developed and put into use the first 5G +8K broadcast car in China, which will provide the public with high-quality off-site viewing services. In this way, the upcoming 8K channel will give viewers the opportunity to see 8K games on TV during the game, and also the opportunity to see ultra-high-definition pictures through 8K terminals in Winter Olympics venues, city squares and other places.</p><p><b>Smart Life Everywhere</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the core of sports competition is still people. How to help athletes get better play in training, life and competition with the help of scientific and technological means is fundamental.</p><p>Take the curling sport, in which the Chinese team won two consecutive victories two days before the start of the competition, as an example. In 2019, the research and development of curling robots began. This project is a national key special project of the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" of the Ministry of Science and Technology. Curling robots make up for the shortage of curling tactical analysis methods and assist athletes in training by using advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, image recognition and automatic control.</p><p>In terms of food, the Beijing Winter Olympics used self-developed ultra-micro trusted chips, combined with the non-tamperable and traceable characteristics of blockchain, to build a food safety guarantee platform for the Winter Olympics, which provided strong support for the catering service of the Winter Olympics.</p><p>It is undeniable that before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robot applications have been accompanied by smart restaurants out of the circle and swiped screens on major social media platforms. Robots are no longer a new species, so why can they get such high attention?</p><p>It turns out that the smart restaurant is located in the main media center of Beijing Winter Olympics. The restaurant covers an area of more than 3,680 square meters, which is divided into automatic bar area, Chinese food cloud track area and media dining area. It is understood that the smart restaurant is equipped with 120 meal-making robots, and the intelligent and automated catering equipment in the restaurant can run 24 hours a day, ensuring the automation of the whole process of ordering, preparing and serving, and serving thousands of people at the same time.</p><p>Surprisingly, there are no chefs or waiters in the restaurant to serve food. Chinese and Western food cooking and cocktail preparation are all done by robots. Diners scan a QR code on the table to order, and then a robot chef in the kitchen starts making it. All robots are behind clear glass, so everyone can see the cooking process.</p><p>Finally, the robot completes the whole food delivery process, and the dishes will be delivered through the cloud rail system at the top of the restaurant. When the robot moves above the desired dining table, a tray of food \"falls from the sky\" along with a lowered cable, hovering in front of people for their access. According to the video, the way of serving food is somewhat similar to that of \"weightless\" restaurants.</p><p>Robots working in restaurants are just the tip of the iceberg for robotics applications throughout the Winter Olympics.</p><p>In terms of epidemic prevention, there are atomization disinfection robots in efficient disinfection scenes, distribution robots in material distribution scenes, cleaning robots responsible for intelligent cleaning, inspection robots responsible for reminding and disinfection services and many other types.</p><p>For example, the disinfection robot of Water Cube can automatically avoid obstacles and charge itself. The intelligent disinfection system built by AI big data can visualize, digitize and trace the disinfection of the venue, which can meet the needs of cleaning and disinfection of nearly 8,600 square meters of public areas in different areas of the venue.</p><p>The Beijing Winter Olympics also built an arrival and departure information system. On the basis of big data, cloud computing and other information technologies, it provided arrival and departure services for 32,000 Olympic customers during the competition by means of seamless connection of multiple systems and data sharing.</p><p>There is another eye-catching invention in this Winter Olympics: a wearable thermometer-\"underarm band-aid\" is an early warning for epidemic prevention and control. The chip sensor of this temperature measurement device is only the size of sand grains, and the temperature measurement can be accurate to 0.05°C, so as to accurately and quickly lock people with abnormal body temperature. Moreover, this innovation will provide technical support for contactless temperature monitoring of groups that will hold large-scale activities in the future.</p><p>The application of intelligent robots not only improves the color and efficiency of science and technology, but also increases the proportion of non-contact services, reduces the direct contact between people, and effectively reduces the infection risk of athletes and staff.</p><p>In terms of wear, China's self-developed alpine skiing training protective clothing adopts a new columnar array resistance structure and a new energy-absorbing cushioning material, which can effectively protect the shoulders and legs of alpine skiers.</p><p>In terms of accommodation, 6,000 smart beds provided by Qisheng Technology for athletes and team officials from all over the world have received unanimous praise and praise. It is reported that Summer Bricher, a female sleigh athlete of the United States Winter Olympics delegation, praised the smart beds on Tiktok, a video social media, and quickly became popular all over the world.</p><p>In terms of medical treatment, the relevant data released by the International Olympic Committee shows that due to the difficulty and danger of the Winter Olympic events, and the low-temperature environment, the injury probability of athletes in the snow events of the Winter Olympic Games is about 10%-14%. In this regard, the Beijing Winter Olympics also comprehensively improved the level of smart medical care. Such as building an intelligent mobile shelter; 5G telemedicine; Strengthen the application of wearable medical-grade intelligent devices; Research and develop public space aerosol COVID-19 detection system and so on.</p><p><b>New investment opportunities have surfaced</b></p><p>According to the budget data released by the Deputy Minister of Finance and Market Development of the Beijing Winter Olympics Bidding Committee, the budgeted revenue and expenditure for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were both US$1.51 billion, far lower than the RMB280 billion for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Among them, 65% of the construction budget of Beijing Winter Olympics venues comes from social investment.</p><p>While expenses have decreased, revenues are not optimistic accordingly. With reference to last year's 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games, a large number of events were held empty, which reduced the proportion of ticket revenue (12%), which was significantly lower than the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro (16%). At a time when the epidemic situation has not yet stabilized, the Beijing Winter Olympics will also face the same situation.</p><p>Fortunately, at present, there are as many as 50 known industries directly or indirectly related to the Olympic Games, and the investment-driving effect brought by them is still strong. The official holding of this Winter Olympics still has the potential to become a capital feast.</p><p>The secondary market response is the most obvious. It is understood that there are currently more than 50 listed companies in A shares to help the Beijing Winter Olympics, in terms of venue construction, technical support, supporting transportation facilities, licensed commodity sales, sponsorship and supply services.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital RMB, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robots and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious.</p><p>First of all, taking digital RMB as an example, the pilot of digital RMB is a highlight of the Beijing Winter Olympics. At present, 355,000 Winter Olympics scenes have been successfully landed, achieving full coverage of transportation, catering and accommodation, shopping and consumption scenes.</p><p>The accelerated promotion of digital RMB has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. In the past three months, more than 50% of the stocks in this sector have increased by more than 20%. At the same time, the payment hardware market in its upstream and downstream industrial chains, the bank IT upgrading market, and the promotion and scene service companies serving digital RMB have also attracted the attention of capital.</p><p>Secondly, it is no surprise that this Winter Olympics has also become a stage for the competition of new energy vehicles. According to the official statistics of the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, among the transportation service vehicles for the Winter Olympics, energy-saving and clean energy vehicles accounted for 100% of passenger cars and 85.84% of all vehicles, the highest in all previous Winter Olympics. During the Winter Olympics, over 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles (i.e. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will also be demonstrated and operated, equipped with more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations.</p><p>Again, it is worth mentioning that hydrogen energy, as the most promising secondary energy in the 21st century, also ushered in a new upsurge of development during the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to incomplete statistics, as of December 2021, there were about 85 investment projects related to hydrogen energy fuel cells, with a total investment amount of about 185.713 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the forecast of the International Hydrogen Energy Commission, by 2050, hydrogen energy will bear 18% of the global energy terminal demand, creating a market value of more than 2.5 trillion USD, and the global proportion of fuel cell vehicles will increase to 20%-25%. It should be pointed out that hydrogen fuel cell opportunities are more concentrated in the commercial vehicle segment.</p><p>In addition, this year's Beijing Winter Olympics has completed the migration of core systems to the cloud. This is the first time in the history of the Olympic Games that cloud computing has replaced traditional IT. So far, the core Olympic event results, event broadcast, information release, athletes' arrival and departure, medical care, accommodation, transportation and other information systems have been migrated to Alibaba Cloud.</p><p>The comprehensive cloud movement of this Winter Olympics has also brought new possibilities for the live broadcast and broadcast of events and the audience's viewing experience, such as solving the huge amount of news collection and editing, and providing technical support for the application of AR/VR equipment and high-definition video.</p><p>In addition, the emergence of virtual people has also contributed to the new experience of watching games. Taking AI sign language anchors as an example, they can not only report news, but also broadcast live sign language of events, which will bring good news to the hearing impaired.</p><p>Of course, as AR/VR hardware and virtual people that are ignited by the metaverse, these two fields are also the darlings of capital this year. Taking virtual humans as an example, in 2021 alone, there were more than 60,000 new virtual human-related enterprises in China; The investment field is even more generous. Less than a month after the beginning of 2022, the cumulative amount of nearly 100 financings in the virtual human field has exceeded 400 million yuan.</p><p>In addition, the ubiquitous behind-the-scenes hero artificial intelligence and the robots active in the front line will also be blown into the wind again by the east wind of Beijing Winter Olympics, especially disinfection robots, service robots and epidemic prevention robots, which are expected to be extended to daily life on a large scale after the Winter Olympics.</p><p>From the first use of electronic timing for the Stockholm Olympics in 1912, the first television broadcast of the Berlin Olympics in 1936, and the opening of the world's first high-speed rail on the eve of the Tokyo Olympics in 1964, we can see that the opening of the Olympic Games is always accompanied by the birth of new scientific and technological achievements.</p><p>We also have reason to believe that these scientific and technological achievements of this Winter Olympics will move from the field to the daily life, and with the blessing of capital, they can become a new bright spot of public life.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TKozH5gi54BjN087OGa7mg\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417fd02a5a1a554bfb51559e8c34d024","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TKozH5gi54BjN087OGa7mg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159530168","content_text":"“科技冬奥”成为了北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主要特色。2月4日晚，第二十四届冬季奥林匹克运动会开幕式在国家体育场举行。如此一来，北京也将成为全球唯一一座既举办过夏季奥运会、又将举办冬奥会的城市。值得一提的是，不同于夏季奥运会，冬季奥运会天然受环境、气候等因素影响较多，同时，此次冬奥会还是近20年来首次在大陆性季风气候背景下举办的冬奥赛事，另外，当前全球新冠肺炎疫情还在持续蔓延，整体举办难度可想而知。比如，来自清华的团队就在在多重数据、机器学习等支持下，结合生物信息学等学科，设计了一套能用于冬奥闭环管理的疫情监测与预警系统，假设赛时突发疫情，可及时精准筛查出高风险人群、易感区域、易感行为以及疫情防控薄弱点等，用科技为冬奥筑起一道防疫技术屏障。此前，“科技冬奥”专家委员会主任在接受凤凰卫视专访时谈到：“新冠疫情出现之后，安全问题就摆在筹备冬奥过程中一个非常突出的位置。科研人员的研究成果，不仅可以应用于本届冬奥，对于社会面上的疫情防控，以及其他大型的国际活动，都是宝贵经验。”这样的事情，在北京冬奥会的筹办过程中，只是冰山一角。据《“科技冬奥”重点专项定向项目申报指南》公布的数据显示，为支持“科技冬奥”项目顺利建成落地，2018—2021年度国拨经费总概算约14.9亿元。根据北京市科学技术委员会数据，在冬奥场景先后测试和使用的200多项技术，涉及信息工程与软件工程、公共安全、高清视频、5G 和新能源等领域。也正是如此，“科技冬奥”成为了北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主要特色，甚至有业内评论称今年的北京冬奥会将成为世界级的科技展。还以正在接力的本届冬奥会的火炬“飞扬”为例，据悉，该火炬由阿里巴巴首席工业设计师李剑叶设计，他谈到，火炬外壳开创性地启用重量轻且耐高温的“碳纤维”材料，不仅耐火耐高温，还能抗10级大风和暴雨，同时，火炬还采用环保的氢气燃料，使火炬燃烧时的碳排放为“零”，其特性也保证了火炬能在极寒天气中使用。相关分析人士也指出，在数字人民币、氢能源、人工智能、机器人和高端制造领域，冬奥会带来的投资加持作用会更加明显，这或许将带来一次万亿级的投资机会。被科技上色的基础设施谈到比赛，很多人首先关注的就是场馆。从被熟知的鸟巢、水立方到本次冬奥会走入大众视线中的冰丝带、雪游龙，一个个独具特色的设计都凝聚着巧思与智慧。不同与往，为了更好的迎接这次冬奥会，每个竞赛场馆都进行了一番“科技”包装。比如作为北京赛区唯一新建的冰上场馆，国家速滑馆“冰丝带”采用了世界跨度最大的单层双向正交马鞍形索网屋面，用钢量仅为传统屋面的1/4。同样，被称为“雪游龙”的国家雪车雪橇中心采用“毫米级”双曲面混凝土喷射及精加工成型技术，1.9公里赛道一次性喷射浇筑成型。而水立方在技术的加持下，在20天内就实现了“由水到冰”的场地转换。鸟巢也在物联网、人工智能技术的助力下，摇身变成了数字、低碳、智能体育场馆。当然以上只是众多科技范儿冬奥会竞赛场馆的一小部分，但这也足以看出，本届冬奥会从最基础的设施部分就开始了科技布局。除了场馆外，冬奥会最离不开的就是冰雪了，正如我们开篇提到的，北京属于大陆性季风气候区，因此，本届冬奥会还有两项“黑科技”——人造雪和“最快冰面”。据了解，本届冬奥会将是有史以来第一届100%使用人造雪的奥运会。人造雪的特性是冰含量较高，比天然雪高出20%，这样的特性也带来了正反两方面的影响，一方面，人造雪可能增加运动员受伤的可能性，另一方面，人造雪可以克服雪场特性差异，让竞技更公平。不止如此，“冰丝带”场馆也创造性地采用二氧化碳跨临界直冷制冰技术，保证了冰面温度恒定，冰面质量更优，由此成为“最快冰面”。如果说场馆和冰雪环境尚属于人工可控因素，那么冬奥赛场上的气候变化则是一个不可忽视的变化因子，这背后原因在于冬奥会70%的项目都是雪上项目，大部分的雪上项目都在地形复杂的山区举办。因此，气象保障成为了冰雪运动的重中之重。到目前为止，气象保障项目取得了一定的科技创新成果，尤其是首次做到了“百米级、分钟级”预报。众所周知，就算我们在平原地区，现在的天气软件做到“百米级、分钟级”尚不可能，而在山地里，做到如此程度面对技术的挑战更为艰巨。在一般的赛事场地，安防工作会用到大量的物理围栏防护或采用大量人力，然而冬奥会比赛多在地形复杂的深山之中，气候环境条件严苛，日夜温差高至几十度，因此，智能哨兵机器人应用而生。本次冬奥会的张家口赛区通过部署智能哨兵机器人，在日常监测中，能自动精准判断入侵者的类别，并将监测到的情况或入侵者的行踪轨迹上传至后台的指挥中心，有效提高了安保工作人员效率，确保冬奥会的赛场安全。它最低的耐低温也超过零下四十度。在北京的冰球赛场五棵松体育中心，也有服务机器人正式上岗。据了解，12台安全服务机器人为观众入场提供无接触式检票，1秒钟内能完成身份验证、智能测温、健康码查询、疫苗接种情况查询等8项流程。场馆外围，4台智能服务机器人提供信息指引、互动答疑、全流程冬奥讲解。另外，我国研发国内首台5G＋8K转播车并投入使用，将为公众提供优质的非现场观赛服务。这样一来，即将开通的8K频道将让观众在赛时有机会在电视上看到8K比赛，也有机会在冬奥场馆、城市广场等地通过8K终端看到超高清画面。无处不在的智能生活归根到底，体育竞技的核心还是人。如何借助科技手段帮助在运动员训练、生活和比赛中得到更好的发挥才是根本。拿中国队在开赛前两天取得两连胜的冰壶运动来说，在2019年，冰壶机器人开始研发，该项目是科技部“科技冬奥”国家重点专项课题，冰壶机器人利用人工智能、图像识别、自动控制等先进技术，弥补冰壶战术分析手段的不足，辅助运动员进行训练。在食品方面，北京冬奥会利用自主研发的超微型可信芯片，结合区块链不可篡改和可追溯的特性，构建冬奥食品安全保障平台，为冬奥餐饮服务提供了有力支撑。不可否认，在北京冬奥会开始之前，机器人应用已经伴随着智慧餐厅出圈了，并在各大社交媒体平台刷屏。机器人早已不是什么新鲜物种，缘何能获得如此高的关注度？原来，该智慧餐厅位于北京冬奥会主媒体中心，餐厅占地3680多平方米，其中分为自动酒吧区，中餐云轨区和媒体就餐区。据了解，智慧餐厅配备了120台制餐机器人，餐厅内智能化、自动化的餐饮设备可24小时不间断运行，确保点餐、备餐、上菜全过程自动化，可同时为数千人服务。让人意外的是，餐厅没有厨师或服务员上菜，中餐和西餐烹饪、鸡尾酒调制都由机器人完成。就餐者扫描餐桌上的二维码点菜，然后厨房里的机器人厨师开始制作。所有机器人都在透明玻璃后面，所以每个人都可以看到烹饪过程。最后机器人完成整个送餐流程，菜品将通过餐厅顶部的云轨系统送达。当机器人移到所需的餐桌上方时，一盘盛着食物的托盘就会随着下放的缆绳 “从天而降”，悬停在人们面前，供其取用。根据视频来看，上菜方式有些类似与“失重”餐厅。在餐厅中工作的机器人只是整个冬奥会中机器人应用的冰山一角。防疫方面，高效消杀场景有雾化消毒机器人，物资分发场景有配送机器人，还有负责智能清扫的清洁机器人，负责提醒与消毒服务的巡检机器人等诸多类型。比如水立方的消毒机器人能够续自动避障、自行充电，通过AI大数据构建的智能化消毒系统将场馆消毒做到可视化、数据化、可追踪溯源化，可满足对场馆不同区域内近8600平方米的公共区域清扫消毒工作。北京冬奥会还建设了抵离信息系统，在大数据、云计算等信息技术基础上，以多系统无缝衔接，数据共享等手段，赛时为3.2万名奥运会客户群提供抵离服务。本届冬奥会还有一个吸睛的发明：可穿戴式体温计——“腋下创可贴”为疫情防控“站哨”预警。这款测温设备的芯片传感器仅沙粒大小，测温可精确到0.05°C，实现精准、快速锁定体温异常人群。而且，该项创新将为未来疫情常态化举办大型活动的群体无接触体温监测提供技术支撑。智能机器人的应用，不仅提高了科技色彩和效率，同时提升了非接触式服务比例，减少了人与人的直接接触，有效降低了运动员和工作人员的感染风险。穿着方面，我国自主研发的高山滑雪训练防护服，采用了新型的柱状阵列式抗击结构和新型吸能缓震材料，能够对高山滑雪运动员的肩腿部起到有效的保护作用。住宿方面，由麒盛科技为各国运动员及随队官员提供的6000张智能床，并得到了一致好评和点赞，据悉美国冬奥代表团雪橇女将萨默·布里彻在视频社交媒体Tiktok上对智能床大加赞扬，并迅速发酵走红全球。医疗方面，国际奥委会发布的相关数据显示，由于冬奥会项目难度较大、危险性较高，且在低温环境下，所以冬奥会雪上项目的运动员受伤概率约在10%—14%。对此，北京冬奥会也全面提升智慧医疗水平。如搭建智能移动方舱；5G远程医疗；加强穿戴式医疗级智能设备应用；研发公共空间气溶胶新冠病毒检测系统等等。新的投资机会浮出水面根据北京冬奥申委财务以及市场开发部副部长公布的预算数据，2022年北京冬奥会的预算收入以及支出皆为15.1亿美元，远低于2008年北京奥运会的人民币2800亿元。其中，北京冬奥会场馆建设预算有65%来自社会投资。虽然支出有所减少，但相应地收入也不乐观。参考去年2021年东京奥运会中出现了大量赛事空场举行的情况，削减了门票收入占比（12%），相较于2016年的约热内卢奥运会（16%）有明显下降。在疫情尚未稳定的当下，此次北京冬奥会也将面临相同的情况。幸运的是，目前已知的与奥运会直接或间接相关的产业多达50项，带来的投资带动效应依旧强劲，本次冬奥会的正式召开，依旧有成为资本盛宴的潜力。二级市场反应最为明显，据了解，A股目前有超过50家上市公司助力北京冬奥会的各项工作，分别在场馆建设、技术支持、交通设施配套、特许商品销售、赞助和供应服务等方面。相关分析人士也指出，在数字人民币、氢能源、人工智能、机器人和高端制造领域，冬奥会带来的投资加持作用会更加明显。首先，以数字人民币为例，开展数字人民币试点是北京冬奥会的一大亮点。目前已顺利落地35.5万个冬奥场景，实现交通出行、餐饮住宿、购物消费等场景全覆盖。数字人民币的加速推广也点燃了资本市场的热情，近三个月，该板块超五成个股累计涨幅超20%。同时，其上下游产业链上的支付硬件市场、银行IT升级改造市场、服务于数字人民币的推广与场景服务公司也得到了资本的关注。其次，毫不意外的是，这届冬奥会也成了新能源汽车比拼的舞台。据北京冬奥组委官方统计，冬奥会赛事交通服务用车中，节能与清洁能源车辆在小客车中占比100%，在全部车辆中占比85.84%，为历届冬奥会最高。冬奥会期间还将示范运行超1000辆氢能源汽车（即氢燃料电池汽车），配备30多个加氢站。再次，值得一提的是，氢能源作为21世纪最具发展前景的二次能源，在北京冬奥期间也迎来了发展的新高潮。据不完全统计，截至2021年12月，氢能源燃料电池相关投资项目约85项，投资总金额约1857.13亿元。据国际氢能委员会预测，到2050年，氢能将承担全球18%的能源终端需求，创造超过2.5万亿美元的市场价值，燃料电池汽车在全球占比将提升至20%-25%。需要指出的是氢燃料电池的机会更多集中在商用车领域。还有，今年北京冬奥已经完成核心系统迁移上云。这是奥运史上首次由云计算替代传统IT，至此，奥运最核心的赛事成绩、赛事转播、信息发布、运动员抵离、医疗、食宿、交通等信息系统迁移至阿里云上。本届冬奥会的全面上云，也为赛事直播和转播以及观众观赛体验上带来了新的可能，比如解决新闻采编巨量工作，让AR/VR设备、高清视频的应用提供技术支持。以及，虚拟人的出现也助力了新的观赛体验，以AI手语主播为例，不仅可以报道新闻，还能进行赛事手语直播，这将给听障人士带来福音。当然，作为被元宇宙带火的AR/VR硬件以及虚拟人，这两大领域今年也是资本的宠儿。以虚拟人为例，仅2021年国内就新增虚拟人相关企业超6万家；投资领域更是大手笔频出，2022年开年还不到一个月，虚拟人领域近百起融资累计金额已经超过4亿元。此外，无处不在的幕后英雄人工智能，以及活跃在一线的机器人，同样将乘着北京冬奥的东风再次被吹上风口，尤其是消毒机器人、服务机器人和防疫机器人等，在冬奥会后有望大规模推广到日常生活中。从1912年斯德哥尔摩奥运会首次使用电子计时，到1936年柏林奥运会首次实现电视转播，再到1964年东京奥运会开幕前夕开通世界上首条高铁，我们看到，奥运盛会的开启，总是伴随着新的科技成果的诞生。我们也有理由相信，本届冬奥会的这些科技成果将从赛场走向日常，经过资本的加持，可以成为大众生活的新亮点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808512518,"gmtCreate":1627601628034,"gmtModify":1703493017822,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 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Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"goid","listText":"goid","text":"goid","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886216786","repostId":"2167535940","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2167535940","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631591760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167535940?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 11:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taper Gets Closer! Where is the current position of US stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167535940","media":"东亚前海策略团队","summary":"投资要点\n当下美股正处于历史最长的牛市之中。标普 500 指数在 2009 年以来的 12 年牛市中累计涨幅高达 559.04%，无论是延续时长还是累计涨幅都创下了历史记录。我们通过对 1928 年以","content":"<p><b>Key points of investment</b></p><p>At present, U.S. stocks are in the longest bull market in history. The S&P 500 index has gained 559.04% in the 12-year bull market since 2009, which has set a record in both duration and cumulative gains. We summarize and sort out the macro and micro characteristics of the 13 rounds of bull-bear transition in the US stock market since 1928, and compare them with the present, in order to provide enlightenment to investors:</p><p><b>On the whole, the following macro characteristics exist when the bull-bear transition in the US stock market occurs: 1) The valuation is at a high level:</b>In 12 of the 13 bull-bear transitions, the top of the market appeared, and the valuation of U.S. stocks was above the 80% quantile.<b>2) liquidity tightening:</b>Historically, there have been 10 rounds of bull-bear transitions under the background of the Federal Reserve's active adjustment of monetary policy. At the same time, the liquidity tightening is highly correlated with the turning point of US stocks.<b>3) Fundamental deterioration:</b>Ten of the 13 bear markets have occurred against the backdrop of declining corporate earnings.<b>4) Tax increases:</b>Historically, 3 rounds of bear markets have occurred against the backdrop of tax increases.<b>5) External Shock:</b>External shocks are not necessarily the main drivers of the market decline, but the suppression of investors' risk appetite by external shocks occurring nine times in a bear market will significantly accelerate the market decline.</p><p><b>From the perspective of micro indicators, U.S. stocks will have some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurs: 1) Asset allocation level:</b>Household overweight stock assets and foreign capital inflow accelerated significantly;<b>2) Valuation level:</b>P/E and price-to-book ratio are at an all-time high, the median Tobin Q is more than 2 standard deviations above the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations;<b>3) Transaction level:</b>The issuance of new shares has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the proportion of call/put options is too high;<b>4) Technical indicators:</b>S&P 500 deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%, and the proportion of stocks above MA250 has increased sharply.</p><p>At present, from the perspective of policies, funds, market characteristics, investor sentiment and valuation, the current US stocks are at historical extreme levels. This means that even if the main indexes of US stocks are still likely to go up under the resonance of global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the probability of sharp market adjustment is rising significantly. At present, investors need to be highly cautious about US stocks.</p><p><b>Through the bull-bear transition in the history of U.S. stocks in review, we think that there are many similarities between the current U.S. stock market and the period of the Internet bubble in 2000.</b>From the perspective of micro indicators, some indicators characterizing market sentiment at present warned of risks in 2018 and 2000. However, from the perspective of macro environment, the current US stocks are facing a very different macro environment from 2018, while there are many common characteristics from 2000: First, the two bull markets lasted for ten years, and the bubble was mainly spawned by growth stocks, and the structural characteristics of the bull market were remarkable; Second, profits are the main driving factor in both bull markets; Third, the extremely dovish monetary policies in the two bull markets have contributed to the expansion of the bubble; Fourth, the assets in both periods had the problem of valuation bubble two years ago, but the bubble continued with the help of the loose liquidity environment and the improvement of corporate profits driven by macro policies.</p><p><b>In the medium term, all three factors may lead to the bursting of the U.S. stock bubble.</b>1) At present, with the unexpected recovery of U.S. employment, the Fed's Taper signal may be released at the Fed's interest rate meeting in September, and the marginal tightening of monetary policy indicated by the opening of Taper will put greater pressure on the valuation of U.S. stocks; 2) On the other hand, the advancement of Biden's tax increase policy will further lead to pressure on the earnings of U.S. stocks; 3) External shocks such as the unexpected fermentation of the epidemic may also bring further downward pressure to US stocks.</p><p>Different from the dominant position of the United States in the global economy in 2000, the current proportion of China's economy in the world is increasing, and the economic and monetary cycles of China and the United States are out of synchrony. The occurrence of the bull-bear conversion of US stocks may impact the sentiment of A shares in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The epidemic situation in developed economies developed beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve tightened beyond expectations, and the tax increase in the United States advanced beyond expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Since March 2009, this round of US stock bull market has been in history for 12.5 years, with a cumulative increase of 559.04%. At present, the profit of U.S. stocks is in the repair channel, while the valuation is already at a historically high level. Under the background of Taper's gradual approach, the market has great differences on \"where is the current position of U.S. stocks\".</p><p>In the last report, \"Apocalypse of U.S. Stock Bull Market (Part 1) -The Opening, Development and End of U.S. Stock Bull Market\", we review the background and market performance of 13 bull-bear transitions in the U.S. stock market since 1928. In this report, we will continue to sort out and interpret the changes and significance of macro and micro indicators when the bull-bear transition of U.S. stocks occurred in the past, and further explore the similarities and differences between the current U.S. stock market and the past, in order to provide enlightenment to investors.</p><p><b>In the medium term, with the landing of the overseas Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet during the year, the downward pressure on the domestic economy gradually appears, the central bank promotes credit supply, and the turning point of macro liquidity is gradually approaching. In addition, the G20 summit at the end of October is expected to become an important catalyst for the improvement of market risk sentiment. From the perspective of the A-share market, with the market switching since August, the current market style has tended to be balanced. Since the beginning of this year, some fully adjusted tracks have initially had the value of left-side layout.</b></p><p><b>01. 13 rounds of bull-bear conversion since 1928</b></p><p>According to the definition of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, bear market/bull market usually refers to the market broad-based index falling/rising by more than 20% and lasting for more than 2 months. Based on this identification standard, combined with the adjustment of market consensus, we identify 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions that U.S. stocks have experienced since 1928 (the S&P 500 index began to be released in 1957 and traced back to 1928).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922d4bd5c0b314cea05ee300f3542e2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Round 1:</b>In September, 1929, the intensifying speculation pushed the valuation of U.S. stocks to a high level. the Federal Reserve took the initiative to rate hike to curb speculation. Panic drove the fastest and deepest flash Crash of U.S. stocks in history. From October 23rd to October 29th of the same year, the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 29.54%, which was known as the Great Crash in history. After that, along with the deteriorating economic fundamentals, the market also fell rapidly, and the S&P 500 index had fallen by 86.16% by July 1932.</p><p><b>Round 2:</b>In March, 1937, the premature withdrawal of policies in the recovery process after the Great Depression caused the US economy to fall into recession again. The second deterioration of fundamentals severely damaged the confidence of American investors, and the market turned its head downward again. The S&P 500 index continued to be sluggish under the haze of World War II until April 1942, with a cumulative decline of 59.99%.</p><p><b>Round 3:</b>In May 1946, after the end of World War II, with the lifting of wartime price controls and the minimum wage increase brought about by union power after veterans returned to the labor market, the United States fell into severe inflation, and the bear market also opened against the backdrop of inflation-induced monetary tightening. The market remained sluggish in the shock until the economic development returned to track in 1950 before restarting the bull market, during which the S&P 500 fell by 29.61%.</p><p><b>Round 4:</b>In August 1956, against the background of continued prosperity of the US economy and a slight rise in inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve once again implemented a tightening monetary policy. This rate hike not only caused a liquidity shock to the market, but also completely defeated the already fragile market sentiment. The S&P 500 is down 21.63% in one year.</p><p><b>Round 5:</b>In December, 1961, after four years of bull market, the Schiller P/E of S&P 500 reached a new high since June, 1930. The valuation of U.S. stocks reached a quite high level. The worry caused by over-valuation dominated this round of bear market. The S&P 500 index fell by 27.97%, which was called \"Kennedy slide\".</p><p><b>Round 6:</b>In April, 1966, under the background of the outbreak of the Vietnam War, the inflationary pressure in the United States appeared again, and the rate hike policy of the Federal Reserve triggered the Credit Crunch of the commercial banking system under the constraint of the 5.5% deposit interest rate ceiling (Regulation Q). The reluctance of commercial banks to lend finally triggered the Minsky Moment, and the S&P 500 index also fell rapidly at this stage. As of October 1996, the short-lived bear market saw the S&P 500 index drop 22.18% rapidly.</p><p><b>Round 7:</b>In December 1968, the inflation problem fermented again, and in order to prevent further deterioration of inflation, the Fed quickly tightened liquidity. After the initial shock, the market began to decline rapidly in June 1969, and it was not until the marginal easing of monetary policy in 1970 that the decline ended. By May 1970, the S&P 500 index had fallen by 36.06%.</p><p><b>Round 8:</b>In January, 1973, under the background of stagflation, the collapse of Bretton Woods, the Watergate Incident and the outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War occurred one after another. The Black Swan Event and the tightening of liquidity under the first oil crisis seriously impacted the American capital market. The S&P 500 index fell sharply from January, 1973 to October, 1974, with a cumulative decline of 48.2%.</p><p><b>Round 9:</b>In November, 1980, the US economy fell into recession again, and the decline of corporate profits under the environment of high interest rate and stagflation started this round of bear market. At the same time, the tightening monetary policy resolutely implemented by Paul Volcker to curb inflation and the Fifth Middle East War that broke out in June, 1982 hit the market again. The US stock market changed the trend of improvement in the third quarter of 1981 and fell deeply again. As of August, 1982, the decline was as high as 27.05%.</p><p><b>Round 10:</b>In August, 1987, the market ended the five-year bull market with an increase of 228.81%. The excessive rise led to the selling pressure of US stocks gradually emerging. Under the influence of the reduction of tax incentives and the unexpectedly announced high trade deficit, US stocks ushered in the biggest one-day plunge since the 20th century. On October 19th, the S&P 500 plunged by 20.5%, which is known as \"Black Monday\" in history. As of December of the same year, the S&P 500 has fallen 33.51% cumulatively.</p><p><b>Eleventh round:</b>In July 1990, the Kuwait war triggered the third oil crisis, and oil prices rose again. Against the background of inflation expectations pushing up risk-free returns and the decline of corporate profits in the recession, the S&P 500 index fell rapidly by 19.92% in just three months.</p><p><b>Round Twelve:</b>In March 2000, the burst of the dot-com bubble ended a decade-long bull market in U.S. stocks. Previously, driven by strong economic growth and stable inflation, the S&P 500 index soared by more than 416.98% in the past decade, and the bubble degree of U.S. stocks also reached an unprecedented height. With the Fed's rate hike puncturing the positive feedback cycle in the long-term low interest rate environment, the profit growth rate of listed companies dropped rapidly. Then, in March 2001, the \"Enron Incident\" and other shocks further pushed the market pessimism to the bottom. The bear market continued until October 2002, and the S&P 500 index fell by 49.15%.</p><p><b>Thirteenth round:</b>In October, 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis and led to a severe economic recession. Under the rapid deepening of the crisis, the deterioration of fundamentals and the collapse of investor confidence occurred almost at the same time, which triggered this round of bear market. The continuous deterioration of corporate profits and the impact of successive bankruptcies such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers on the market have pushed U.S. stocks down all the way. As of March 2009, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 56.78%, the biggest decline in the bear market since 1942.</p><p><b>02. The macro characteristics of the US stock market when the bull-bear transition occurs</b></p><p><b>On the whole, in terms of macro characteristics, the triggering factors of the 13 rounds of bull-bear switching in the US stock market mainly include the following points: 1) The valuation is at a high level; 2) liquidity tightening; 3) deteriorating fundamentals; 4) tax increases and other expectations to suppress earnings; 5) Other external shocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b20864f4239e9df20be4c528a0daa7b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.1. Valuations are at high levels</b></p><p>When the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversion occurred in the history of U.S. stocks, except for the low P/E of S&P 500 index in the bear market from 1980 to 1982, the valuation of U.S. stocks was above 80% of the historical quantile when the top of the other 12 rounds of markets appeared, of which 8 times were higher than 90% of the historical quantile. The P/E of S&P 500 index exceeded 95% of the historical quantile when the Great Depression in 1929, the Kennedy crash in 1961, the flash crash in 1966 and the Internet bubble in 2000 occurred.</p><p>The exceptional 1980-1982 bear market occurred in a stagflationary environment, dominated by declining corporate earnings, and the market fell further under the impact of liquidity tightening and the Fifth Middle East War.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb3c95f6f87d1bdcfe7113b3de3e350\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. liquidity tightening</b></p><p><b>In the history, 12 of the 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions have triggered the tightening of liquidity environment, of which 9 rounds are the Fed's active adjustment of discount rate or Federal Funds rate.</b></p><p>Among the other three rounds, 1) When the bear market occurred in 1937, the U.S. Treasury Department decided to write off the gold inflow to reduce excess reserves, and superimposed the policy of doubling the deposit reserve ratio of the Federal Reserve. Under the two-way tightening of base money and money multiplier, the previous strong monetary expansion came to an abrupt end, and the marginal tightening of liquidity also caused an impact on the market. 2) When the bear market began in 1990, although the Federal Reserve maintained the stability of monetary policy and the Federal Funds rate maintained a high volatile pattern during this period, inflation expectations pushed up the risk-free interest rate, and the ten-year Treasury Bond yield rapidly increased from 8.44% on July 17th to 8.92% on October 11th. 3) In the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, although Ben Bernanke creatively invested a variety of financial instruments to put liquidity into the market, the loosening of macro liquidity failed to effectively improve the micro liquidity of the market, and the rapid widening of credit spread put great pressure on the price of risky assets.</p><p>The only exception was the \"Kennedy crash\" in 1961. During this round of decline, the U.S. economy was stable, corporate profits were healthy, and interest rates remained relatively stable. According to the research of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it was more the change of investor sentiment that led to this round of market downturn.</p><p><b>At the same time, liquidity tightening is highly correlated with the inflection point of U.S. stocks.</b>Among the 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions, eight of them had asset price adjustments in the same month in liquidity tightening, while the inflection points of the capital market of the Great Depression in 1929 and the flash crash in 1966 lagged behind the development of rate hike policies by two months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cea7e94799283b9cbc2e7bf89c040de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec3c9cf3bd9b5bc0da7cdc2e03caa548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.3. Fundamental deterioration</b></p><p>In the history of U.S. stocks, 10 of the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversion occurred under the background of declining corporate profits, with only three exceptions.</p><p>Among the exceptional three rounds, in the bear markets in 1961 and 1973, under the stagflation environment brought by the rise of commodity prices, the rise of prices improved the profits of upstream enterprises. During these two periods, the profit performance of US stocks was still relatively good due to the rise of the energy sector. However, the occurrence of \"Black Monday\" in 1987 was more dominated by investors' panic. At that time, the automatic trading strategy of programmed trading and portfolio insurance, which was still in its infancy, aimed at hedging the market risk of stock portfolios by short selling stock index futures, had not yet been able to adapt to the flash crash of the market. The decline of stock prices activated more automatic stop-loss orders, which further deepened the decline of stock prices, and the market kept falling in this a vicious circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8345030c65e43922663c02bd695f8100\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.4. Tax increases and other earnings suppression expectations</b></p><p>Since 1950, the corporate tax rate in the United States has been lowered many times, with only one sharp increase occurring in 1968. This tax increase was also accompanied by the tightening of liquidity, which caused a bear market in which the S&P 500 index fell by 36.06% from 1968 to 1971.</p><p>In addition, during the bear market in 1937, Roosevelt, who was relatively cautious about fiscal deficits, implemented a tight fiscal policy of cutting federal expenditure in order to curb government expenditure and balance the budget, and implemented a tax increase policy in the context of the impending outbreak of World War II in 1940; In 1980, then President of the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>Signed the Crude Oil Windfall Tax Act of 1980, which proposed to impose a 50% windfall tax on crude oil production enterprises. This measure suppressed the enthusiasm of oil enterprises for production, brought about a rapid rise in the effective tax rate of enterprises, and finally hit the corporate profits of US stocks hard in the decline of profits in the energy sector and the high financing cost environment; In addition, in the 1961 \"Kennedy crash\", although no substantial tax increases took place, Kennedy publicly criticized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">U.S. Steel</a>It has caused the market to worry about the introduction of suppression measures for large enterprises, which has brought about the disturbance of \"tax increase\" or related suppression of profit expectations of enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d456d1850581040caca03dbe752ac0\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.5. External shock</b></p><p>As a relatively mature capital market, US stocks usually have a relatively strong ability to resist risks in history. For example, external shocks such as the Asia-Pacific financial crisis in 1998 and the European debt crisis in 2011 will only bring a temporary correction of US stock asset prices, but will not trigger a bear market. However, there are still four external shocks in history that have suppressed investors' risk appetite, which has accelerated the decline of the market and deepened the decline of U.S. stocks in the bear market.</p><p>In July 1956, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of the Suez Canal, which caused great shocks in European and American countries and affected the sentiment of American stock investors.</p><p>In April 1973, the Watergate Incident intensified, and the uncertainty brought by the storm also impacted the capital market. The outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War on October 6th led to further aggravation of external shocks. Under the influence of the war, oil prices soared and market sentiment further deteriorated.</p><p>On June 6, 1982, the Fifth Middle East War broke out, and the market again turned to worry about the occurrence of imported inflation. On August 12th of the same year, Mexico's finance minister formally informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the U.S. government that it was unable to repay $80 billion in foreign debt, and the Latin American debt crisis kicked off. The ensuing external shocks once again affected the US stock market. The US stock market changed the trend of improving in the third quarter of 1981 and fell deep again.</p><p>In August, 1990, the Kuwait War triggered the third oil crisis, and the oil price rose again. Investors were particularly worried about the crisis after the first two rounds of oil crises in 1970s, and the rising risk premium also suppressed the stock price.</p><p><b>03. The micro-characteristics of the US stock market when the bull-bear transition occurs</b></p><p><b>Historically, U.S. stocks have some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurs: 1) Asset allocation level: households overweight stock assets and foreign capital inflow significantly accelerate; 2) Valuation level: P/E and price-to-book ratio are at a high level, Tobin's median Q is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average, and Buffett's index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations; 3) Trading level: the issuance of new shares has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the proportion of call options/put options is too high; 4) Technical indicators: S&P 500 deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%, and the proportion of stocks above MA250 increases sharply.</b></p><p><b>3.1. Asset allocation level</b></p><p><b>1) Household overweight equity assets</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of asset allocation, household overallocation of equity assets often indicates the arrival of risks. When this allocation proportion exceeds 30%, the market risk is greater.</b>On the one hand, the increase of this allocation proportion reflects the rapid increase of market investor participation, which is often a harbinger of the late bull market; On the other hand, household overweight risk assets often overdraw the potential of subsequent incremental funds to enter the market. Once the macro liquidity is adjusted, it is difficult for the market to find the injection of incremental funds at the micro level to ease the pressure of liquidity contraction. In terms of historical data, the indicator exceeded 30% in the \"flash crash\" of 1966, the \"dot-com bubble\" of 2000 and the bear market under the financial crisis of 2007. At present, the allocation sentiment of American investors is rising day by day, and the proportion of households allocating equity has reached 40.25%, which also exceeds the historical extreme value of 38.25% during the dot-com bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1196cc373f0817792da6960f339c9a62\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Significant acceleration of foreign capital inflows</b></p><p><b>Similarly, the rapid influx of foreign capital is usually a distinguishing feature of the later stages of the bull market.</b>Under the effect of local preference, foreign capital often tends to invest in domestic risk assets, and it will not be attracted by the continuous rise of risk assets in U.S. stocks until the late bull market, and the inflow will be accelerated. During this period, the market risk is relatively large. This indicator successfully confirmed the occurrence of three rounds of bull-bear transitions, namely, the flash crash of Black Friday in 1987, the expansion of the Internet bubble in 2000 and the plunge under the spread of the financial crisis in 2007. At the same time, it monitored the market correction in April 2010. From the perspective of the leading and lagging relationship, with the strengthening of the learning effect on US stocks, the flow of foreign capital gradually developed from lagging behind the market in early 2000 to leading the market in recent years. In \"Black Friday\" and \"Internet bubble\", foreign capital lagged behind the market by 3 months and 8 months respectively. In the financial crisis, the outflow of foreign capital was about 2 months ahead of the adjustment of the S&P 500 index. In 2010, when the US stock market pulled back, foreign capital also seemed to be about 2 months ahead. At present, the inflow of foreign capital into US stocks has accelerated again, and the market value of net inflow of foreign capital in a single month once hit 0.7%. At the end of June, the inflection point appeared, and foreign capital began to transfer from US stocks.  </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86abb4aaec43194d41d3b67e20f86a25\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.2. Valuation Aspects</b></p><p><b>1) P/E and price-to-book ratio are at a high level</b></p><p><b>P/E is a classic measure of asset value, reflecting the number of years it takes to recover investment in stocks under current profits. From historical data, when this measure is higher than the historical 95% quantile at that time, there is a greater risk in the market.</b>In 1929, 1961, 1966, and 2000, this indicator was as high as 32.56, 21.25, 22.66, and 44.19, respectively, all higher than the historical 95% quantile, and 2018, the only year without a bear market, also saw a 19.87% pullback. At present, P/E has once again broken through the historical quantile of 95%, exceeding the historical peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, reaching 37.86 times. At the same time, the median P/E of the constituent stocks of S&P 500 index is as high as 25.02 times, breaking through the historical peak of 22.76 times during the Internet bubble period, and being in the historical extreme state since 1990.</p><p>On the other hand, from the perspective of price-to-book ratio, the price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 reached a peak of 5.04 times at the end of 1999, on the eve of the bursting of the Internet bubble. At present, this indicator is once again close to the historical extreme level, as high as 4.59 times, a new high since October 2000. The median price-to-book ratio of S&P 500 constituent stocks is also at the historical extreme level since 1990.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72dfb9cced8690fc40f868b3d87c399\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f88748b7c4835d402b76a84849485c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The median Tobin Q of the S&P 500 is more than 2 standard deviations above the 7-year moving average</b></p><p><b>The ratio between the market value of Tobin Q as a physical asset and its replacement value, when Tobin Q is too much above parity for the entire market, investors may be too optimistic about future asset returns. As this indicator has a long-term change due to the trend change of the proportion of heavy assets of enterprises, we construct a warning indicator of risk level according to 2 standard deviations compared with the moving average of the previous seven years to eliminate the trend impact.</b>Historically speaking, this indicator has been well confirmed during the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2007. Although there was no systemic risk after this indicator warned of risks in April 2015, the S&P 500 index subsequently experienced a sharp correction of 14.16%. From the leading and lagging relationship with US stocks, this indicator has a certain leadership. The inflection points of Tobin's Q indicator in the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2007 were 8 months and 4 months ahead of the index inflection point respectively, and the inflection point in 2015 was also 3 months ahead of the S&P 500 index. Currently, the Tobin Q value once again began to exceed the historical mean by more than 2 standard deviations in April 2021, and began to show an inflection point in early August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) Buffett exceeds the long-term trend by 2 standard deviations</b></p><p><b>The Buffett Index measures the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP of U.S. stocks, which Buffett calls \"the best single measure of the level of valuation at any given moment\". With the increase of the proportion of direct financing, this value also has a long-term central upward trend. Judging from the trend deviation degree after removing the trend, when the trend deviation degree of this index exceeds the mean value by more than 2 standard deviations, the market often has great risk</b>(Note: This index is the ratio of the total market value of U.S. stocks to GDP, in which the GDP data is derived from BEA, while the total market value of U.S. stocks refers to the CMV algorithm. Before 1970, the company equity counted by the Federal Reserve was used, and after 1970, the total market value of Wilshire 5000 index was used, and the total market value of two different calibers was continuously adjusted).</p><p>Historically, the Buffett index hit a high of more than one standard deviation in 1966 and 1968, and two standard deviations above the mean before the Internet bubble in 2000. Subsequently, the market changed from bull to bear. In this round of bull market, the market hit 1 standard deviation and 2 standard deviations above the mean in 2015 and 2018, respectively, and then the market recorded a correction of 14.16% and 19.87% respectively. At present, Buffett Index has broken through the long-term trend by more than 3 standard deviations, and is in a historical extreme state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9360a59851a33d7b6d923ce531f01a\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.3. Transaction level</b></p><p><b>1) The issuance of new shares increased significantly</b></p><p><b>The issuance volume of an IPO usually affects the stock price in two ways. On the one hand, when the risk appetite of market investors is generally high, the initial public offering is more likely to over-raise. However, the over-raised funds often can't be used reasonably by enterprises, thus aggravating the collapse risk of over-raised stocks. It is easy to form systemic risks in the period of extremely high IPO issuance; On the other hand, the issue of new shares also forms a siphon effect on the market in micro-liquidity, which is easy to suppress the rise of stock prices.</b>From the history since 2000, there were 643 IPOs issued in a single year during the Internet bubble. At present, the number of new shares issued in U.S. stocks has once again exceeded 600, and 788 have been issued as of September 12, 2021, a new high since 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5a37941657256518b0b509359a79f9\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Margin liabilities exceed the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations</b></p><p><b>The scale of margin liabilities reflects the leverage level of market transactions. Historically, when the leverage ratio is too high, the market often accumulates greater potential risks. Once the index starts to fall, it is easy to cause systemic risks under the chain reaction of leveraged funds stop loss.</b>During the Internet bubble in 2000 and before the global financial crisis in 2007, the scale of margin liabilities in the US stock market exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations. Among them, in the Internet bubble in 2000, this indicator and S&P 500 showed an inflection point at the same time; In the financial crisis of 2007, this indicator was about three months ahead of the inflection point of the index. Starting from March 2021, the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market once again greatly exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations, and began to show an inflection point at the end of June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) Decline in the proportion of low-priced stocks</b></p><p><b>Historically, there is often a round of low-priced stocks (Penny Stock below $5) in the late stage of the bull market and the eve of the adjustment of risky assets. Under the background of the influx of off-market marginal investors, low-priced stocks can often make excess returns.</b>On the whole, when the proportion of low-priced stocks is less than 5%, the accumulated market risk is relatively large, which is confirmed by the bear market in 2007, the 19.15% callback under the European debt crisis in 2011, the 12.08% callback in August 2015 and the 19.87% callback in 2018. As of September 12th, this indicator once again broke through the critical level of 5%, with a reading of 4.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accb19c41170e09acfed15d4ad569d0c\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4) Excessive Call/Put Ratio in U.S. Stocks</b></p><p><b>The call/put ratio measures the strength of bullish sentiment compared with bearish sentiment in the U.S. stock market, and it tends to rise to more than 200% when investor sentiment rises to the extreme at the end of the bull market.</b>Judging from the history of U.S. stocks since 1991, this indicator once exceeded 200% under the Internet bubble pushed up by irrational emotions in 2000, reaching the extreme point of 220%. At present, this indicator has gone up straight after the restart of QE under the background of the epidemic in 2020. The latest reading is 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is already in a dangerous position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4974d62d91c36134dabdc00154f3d30e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.4. Technical aspects</b></p><p><b>1) S&P 500 deviates from long-term trend by more than 50%</b></p><p><b>The asset price has an inherent trend of fluctuation around the trend value, so when the stock index deviates from the trend value for a long time, there will often be \"mean regression\". Looking at historical data, the markets have all seen significant corrections when the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 has deviated by more than 50% from its long-term trend.</b>At the inflection point of the bull market in 1937, the trend deviation of the S&P 500 reached 65.64%; At the inflection points of 1966 and 1968, the index reached 62.21% and 56.53%, respectively; Before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the index reached a historical peak of 79.98%. At present, the S&P 500 index has deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020. As of September 10th, the trend deviation is as high as 78.20%, which is close to the historical peak on the eve of the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8691c9ea65ad53e46fa36a2ac90237e2\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The proportion of stocks above MA250 increased sharply</b></p><p><b>Historically, when most stocks in the stock market were in their long-term<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trend line</a>When above, the market often has a greater risk of callback.</b>Judging from the proportion of stocks above MA250 in S&P 500 and Russell3000 constituent stocks, in January 1998, March 2010 and April 2011, the proportion of stocks above MA250 in S&P 500 constituent stocks exceeded 90%, and the proportion of stocks above MA250 in Russell3000 constituent stocks exceeded 80%. In these three rounds, the market recorded a correction of more than 15%, and the index warning inflection points were 6 months, 2 months and 3 months ahead of the market respectively. At present, both indicators have exceeded the warning values of 90% and 80% again since January 2021, and the inflection points appeared in May 2021 and March 2021 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c128791cae417bda367438076f79ffc2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>04. The current US stock environment is more similar to that of 2000</b></p><p><b>4.1. Key characteristics of this bull market</b></p><p><b>At present, the U.S. stock market is in the 14th round of bull market since 1928.</b>This round of bull market started on March 10th, 2009, and has gone through 12.5 years, making it the longest bull market in the history of U.S. stocks. The previous longest bull market was the Internet bubble from October 12th, 1990 to March 24th, 2000, spanning 9.5 years. At the same time, this round of bull market is also the biggest bull market in history. The 12-year slow bull market has made US stocks rise by 559.04%, which also surpasses the 416.98% increase during the Internet bubble and the 323.36% increase from July 1932 to March 1937 during the economic recovery after the Great Depression.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddff39f22ac7ffbdcce7fc5d4fbcbeff\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10ebdb232ba20988d91772362e926c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the end of the global financial crisis in 2008, driven by strong stimulus policies such as quantitative easing, market confidence gradually recovered, and the US stock market returned to its bullish path in March 2009. This round of bull market roughly shows four stages of growth.</p><p><b>Phase 1: March 2009 to July 2011 (599 trading days, up 98.81%).</b>During this period, the economic bottom out, loose liquidity, economic recovery and investor confidence recovery jointly drove the market upward at this stage;</p><p><b>Phase 2: November 2012 to August 2015 (691 trading days, up 55.35%).</b>European debt crisis,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>After huge losses, fiscal cliffs and other bad news were exhausted, the US economy returned to the track of moderate growth. During this period, the market rose moderately, among which biotechnology companies performed outstandingly, driving the Nasdaq index to quickly surpass the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones index;</p><p><b>Phase 3: July 2016 to September 2018 (558 trading days, up 39.53%),</b>One year after the market was affected by the withdrawal of QE and the shock adjustment of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, Trump's tax cut and fiscal stimulus policy after taking office constituted the main driving force for the US stock market to rise again. Stimulated by tax cut and fiscal policy, the profits of American enterprises continued to grow during this period, which pushed the US stock market to continue its slow bull market, while the performance and market performance of technology stocks were particularly outstanding;</p><p><b>Phase 4: January 2019 to date (683 trading days, up 89.64%).</b>In the fourth quarter of 2018, after the market was rapidly corrected by the soaring yield of Treasury Bond, the shift of macro liquidity under the background of the global economic recession in 2019 drove the current round of market conditions. During this period, the market has been attacking all the way since the impact of the epidemic in early 2020. At this stage, the role of valuation factors has been significantly improved, especially after the quantitative easing policy was restarted in 2020 in response to the epidemic. The rise of valuation driven by loose liquidity has brought the Nasdaq index to a rapid rise, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes have also risen significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1291e241975d6d0ac900d368b10f29\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the current round of US stock bull market, it mainly shows the following characteristics:</p><p><b>1) This round of bull market of large-cap stocks in U.S. stocks is driven by both profit and valuation, while small-cap stocks measured by Russell2000 are mainly driven by profit unilaterally.</b>Since 2009, 64.13% of the current S&P 500 gains have been driven by profit, 9.45% by the decline in risk-free interest rates, and 26.42% by risk appetite. Earnings are the core driver of this bull market. In 2019-2020, the valuation driving effect caused by liquidity easing increased significantly, and the contribution of liquidity easing to the market growth in 2019-2020 reached 64.08% and 225.14%, respectively. Looking at small-cap stocks as measured by the Russell2000 index, earnings factors contributed 80.22% of the gains during the current bull market, while valuation factors influenced 19.78%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4642e47ffe5547e7bfe92be55bca3de\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77e5707664b1cf8b1305ea7f9ea6855\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2) The performance of technology and Internet companies is particularly outstanding.</b>Judging from the 11 industries classified by GICS of S&P 500 Index, information technology companies have performed particularly well in this bull market, ranking first among all industries with an increase of 1268.85%, and the excess rate of return is as high as 712.32% compared with S&P 500 Index. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The discretionary consumption industry represented by etc. also performed outstanding, achieving an excess return of 466.83% compared with the S&P 500 index. The technology stock market is the most obvious in FAAMG. In terms of market value weighting, five technology Internet giants rose by 3,906% in total during this period, far exceeding the rise and fall of the three major stock indexes. From the perspective of EPS changes, profit plays the most important role in FAAMG market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98440f7788f3df3c7e9d71113053883a\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d8e6fc7067afabcdb7e6b508c56e3b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>3) The significant promotion of the repurchase of listed companies to the market is another significant feature of this bull market.</b>In this round of bull market, the repurchase of listed companies has played a huge role in boosting it. From the perspective of repurchase scale, the single-quarter repurchase scale of the listing announcement in the second quarter of 2009 at the beginning of this round of bull market was only USD 32.58 billion. By the first quarter of 2019, the single-quarter repurchase scale expanded to USD 204.252 billion, and it continued to maintain the single-quarter repurchase scale of more than USD 150 billion for many quarters. Repurchase has a significant effect on the stock price. On the one hand, repurchase reduces the company's share capital, which can directly increase the company's earnings per share and return on net assets, and drive the stock price upward from the perspective of performance by reducing the weighted average capital cost. On the other hand, repurchase can improve the level of corporate governance by optimizing the ownership structure; Finally, the incremental demand provided by share repurchase and the positive signals released also have significant support for the stock price. Based on this, repurchase in this bull market has played a significant role in promoting EPS and stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6deec43db8c4c89438918dcffe777a\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. In terms of micro indicators, where are the current U.S. stocks</b></p><p>From the perspective of policies, funds, market characteristics, market trading sentiment and valuation, we<b>It is believed that the current US stock market has some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurred in history. This means that even if the main index of U.S. stocks is still likely to go up under the resonance of global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the upside of the market is relatively limited. At this point, investment in U.S. stocks needs to be cautious.</b></p><p><b>From the various micro-indicators characterizing the state of the market:</b></p><p><b>1) At present, among the asset allocation indicators:</b>At present, the allocation sentiment of American investors is rising day by day, and the proportion of households allocating stocks has reached 40.25%, which also exceeds the historical extreme value of 36.98% during the Internet bubble; In terms of foreign capital, in June, the market value of net inflow of foreign capital in a single month accounted for 0.7%, a new high in nearly 10 years. Since then, the inflection point appeared, which was about 2 months ahead of the index in the financial crisis in 2007 and the market correction in 2010.</p><p><b>2) Among the indicators reflecting the reasonableness of valuation:</b>P/E once again broke through the historical quantile of 95%, surpassing the historical second peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, reaching 37.86 times; The median P/E of the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 index has reached the historical extreme level; The price-to-book ratio has also exceeded 4 times again, a new high since 2000; Tobin Q value and Buffett index break through the historical mean and historical trend value by more than 2 and 3 standard deviations respectively, and are both in the historical extreme state.</p><p><b>3) Among the indicators at the transaction level:</b>The number of new shares issued in U.S. stocks once again exceeded 600, with 788 issued as of August 20, 2021, a new high since 2000; By the end of May 2021, the inflection point after the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market greatly exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations appeared in June. In the 2007 financial crisis, this indicator was about 3 months ahead of the index inflection point; The proportion of low-priced stocks in Russell3000 index has once again reached the critical level of 5%; The call/put ratio went up straight after QE restarted in the context of the epidemic in 2020, with the latest reading of 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is already in a more dangerous position.</p><p><b>4) Among the technical indicators:</b>The S&P 500 has deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020, and as of September 10, the trend deviation is as high as 78.20%; The proportion of stocks above MA250 in the constituent stocks of S&P 500 and Russell3000 index once again exceeded the warning value, and then turned down in May and March respectively. In the previous three callbacks, this technical indicator was about 4 months ahead of the index callback.</p><p><b>4.3. In terms of macro characteristics, the current U.S. stock market is different from 2018</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of micro indicators, some indicators that we currently monitor to characterize the market state have had risk warnings in 2000 and 2018. However, from the perspective of macro environment, the current US stock market is facing a very different macro environment from that of 2018.</b></p><p><b>Fundamentally,</b>In 2018, Trump's tax cut bill greatly improved the profit environment of enterprises. The policy made the profits of American multinational companies return, and the improvement of S&P 500 earnings offset the sharp decline in valuation. At present, Biden's U.S. jobs plan will raise taxes on enterprises, and the implementation of this policy will drag down American corporate profits, which is more similar to the pressure on corporate profits in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98613e8dd4e8e7028f8bb8b24a22e3e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"1614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In monetary policy,</b>In 2018, the Federal Reserve was already in the rate hike cycle. After the liquidity expectation was tightened, there was still room for development in the context of the global economic slowdown the following year. At present, on the one hand, with the gradual control of the epidemic, the global economy as a whole is in the recovery range; on the other hand, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is already very large, which reduces the room for further implementation of loose monetary policy. At the same time, the deterioration of the epidemic may also impact market sentiment and suppress risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e9ad7389637055420ba558cb92b261\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. Overall, the current U.S. stock market is more similar to that of 2000</b></p><p><b>Through the review of bull-bear conversion in the history of U.S. stocks, we think that there are many similarities between the current U.S. stock market and 2000.</b></p><p><b>First, the two bull markets lasted for ten years, and the bubble was mainly spawned by growth stocks. The structural characteristics of the bull market were remarkable.</b>On the whole, the 2000 bull market and the current bull market lasted for 9.5 years and 12.5 years respectively, and the S&P 500 index increased by 416.98% and 559.04% respectively, which were the top two in terms of duration and increase; From the industry point of view, the structural characteristics of the two rounds of stock markets are remarkable. In the 2000 bull market, Internet-related communication technology enterprises increased astonishingly, which promoted the information technology industry to achieve a remarkable excess rate of return. In this bull market, the main excess returns of the US stock market were also achieved by the information technology industry and optional consumer industries represented by FAAMG; From the perspective of individual stocks, both bull markets are structural bull markets driven by a few individual stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97b5906c0efb0c829712e8ab756fbbf\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc8bcb41cff71c0b3654a9b39f59b34\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"885\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, earnings were the main driving factor in both bull markets.</b>In the 2000 bull market, the three driving factors of profit, risk-free interest rate and risk appetite accounted for 69.79%, 19.72% and 10.49% respectively; In this round of bull market, the three driving factors accounted for 74.59%, 9.14% and 16.27% respectively. Profit is the core driving factor in both bull markets, and the upward trend of liquidity and risk appetite has also played a boosting role.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d80b56e3cc0933b034a1915e8322b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, extremely dovish monetary policy has contributed to the expansion of the bubble.</b>At the beginning of his tenure, Alan Greenspan was widely regarded as an Inflation Fighter. However, over time, Alan Greenspan's stance became more dovish, and was evaluated as a \"dove in hawk's clothing\" by a Reuters editorial. After the market was generally aware of the existence of the bubble in 1996, Alan Greenspan still rejected rate hike against all opinions, and cut interest rates again when the capital bubble was about to burst under the \"Southeast Asian financial crisis\" in 1998. This series of loose monetary policy orientations contributed to the expansion of the bubble in the 2000 bull market. The same situation also happened in this bull market. When Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jeremy Powell were chairmen, the policy orientation of the Federal Reserve was also pigeon-oriented. Four rounds of QE injected a lot of liquidity into the market, and the valuation of the US stock market was significantly pushed up during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4097d0112ecaf093fa646def2defd8c4\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84211344cf593ac529aba7befd20da16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, the assets of both periods had the problem of valuation bubble two years ago, but the bubble continued with the help of the loose liquidity environment and the improvement of corporate profits driven by macro policies.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the deviation of S&P 500 from the long-term trend value, Schiller P/E and many other indicators, the asset bubble of U.S. stocks was relatively serious in 1998. At the same time, with the rapid decline of the US Dollar Index in the Southeast Asian crisis, the continuous decline of the profits of listed companies, and the marginal tightening of the monetary environment of rising interest rates, the S&P 500 index underwent a periodic correction.</b>U.S. stock valuations were already at high levels in 1998, with the S&P 500 Schiller P/E breaking through the pre-Depression level of 32.56 at the end of 1997, hitting a record high,<b>Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett have also warned of the risk of US stock bubbles.</b>The third quarter of 1997 was the high point of the profit of U.S. stocks at that time. With the successive disclosure of semi-annual reports in 1998, the profit of American enterprises dropped marginally for three consecutive quarters, and the market gradually formed a consensus expectation for the continuous decline of the performance of listed companies. On the other hand, the upward interest rate superimposed the rapid decline of the US Dollar Index under the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the marginal tightening of liquidity environment also had an impact on the valuation of US stocks. Under various negative factors, the S&P 500 index recorded a 19.15% correction between July 17, 1998 and September 4, 1998.<b>However, driven by the liquidity of the Fed's monetary policy shift at that time, the bubble of U.S. stocks continued to expand for two years.</b></p><p>Affected by the spread of the \"Southeast Asian financial crisis\", the Federal Reserve lowered the target interest rate of federal funds three times in a row from September 29th to November 17th, 1998. Under the stimulation of monetary policy, the profits of American enterprises rebounded again, and the shift of liquidity environment superimposed, and US stocks rose again. It was not until March 21st, 2000 that the Fed's active rate hike burst the bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb0d40d2fc3ad66b6aab753bea40a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A similar situation has happened in this round of U.S. stocks.</b>In this round of the longest bull market in the history of U.S. stocks, the Schiller P/E of the S&P 500 Index once again broke through the extreme value of the Great Depression in January 2018, reaching 33.31 times.<b>Alan Greenspan also warned of the valuation risks of U.S. stocks again on January 31, 2018.</b>In terms of monetary policy, Jerome Powell, newly nominated by Trump on February 5th, did not \"bias pigeon\" as Trump expected. Instead, he issued an optimistic outlook for the US economy, which made the market rate hike expect to rise. The U.S. stock market also fell rapidly from September 20, 2018 with the rapid rise of the yield of the U.S. Treasury Bond, with a cumulative decline of 19.87% as of December 24.<b>Similar to 1998, this round of US stock bubble did not burst, but restarted the bull market again in 2019.</b>On the one hand, Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act improved the profit environment of American enterprises. The annual profit of American enterprises increased rapidly from $112.8 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to $141.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, with a compound annualized growth rate of 12.13%. On the other hand, with the slowdown of global economic growth, the monetary policies of major central banks headed by the Federal Reserve have also turned again. In May 2019, Powell delivered a speech, making it clear that he would take action at an appropriate time to boost the weak economy. Superimposing the huge amount of fiscal and monetary policies since the epidemic, the bubble of U.S. stocks continued to expand for two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5236df1c34e6eaf44b9679a37b9ad9ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, overseas liquidity has been marginally tightened,</b>The growth rate of M2 in the United States, Europe and Japan has shown signs of peaking.<b>At the same time, Biden's tax increase policy has suppressed the profits of U.S. stock companies.</b>The Biden administration's Made in America Tax Plan and Family Plan will raise taxes on the wealthy, capital gains and corporations at the same time, and the earnings of U.S. stocks will be impacted. The impact of tax increases may be structural, and technology stocks may bear the brunt. Doubling GILTI's tax rate and the preliminary agreement on a global common minimum rate of 15% with the G7 may make<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The tax pressure of multinational Internet and technology companies with a large proportion of overseas revenue has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae34a20e783168efc131f7b09ecb32a\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb4a8dff0f65bccb57513e8e008a182\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, three factors may lead to the bull-bear conversion of U.S. stocks: 1) In terms of liquidity:</b>Combined with history, the unexpected tightening of monetary policy is generally the most important factor in the conversion between bulls and bears. In history, 7 of the 13 rounds of switching in the US stock market were punctured by the tightening of monetary policy. The excess liquidity index measured by the difference between the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and the year-on-year growth rate of nominal GDP changed about 6 months ahead of the P/E of S&P 500 index. Since May this year, the excess liquidity of the United States has turned from positive to negative. In addition, at present, as the employment repair in the United States has reached 75%, the Fed's Taper signal may be released with the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. This final statement will determine the final progress of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57969b185f1d31d18a6fbda29f911f7f\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f76c0ffa0f994260f203b2e017b012\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Profit:</b>The expected decline in corporate profits caused by tax increases or tax increases has also led to four rounds of bull-bear transitions in history. On the one hand, from the perspective of economic form,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The economic surprise index, which is about two months ahead of the excess return of the S&P 500 relative to Treasury Bond, has fallen sharply lower and has fallen back to-58.8. On the other hand, judging from the dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 indexes in the next 12 months, although both of them have fallen back with the improvement of corporate profit expectations under the economic recovery after entering 2021, they are still at the historical highs of 88% and 92% respectively. The earnings repair has been fully reflected in the current stock price, and future tax increases will further suppress future earnings. In the medium term, whether it is the re-impact of the economy under the repeated epidemic or the acceleration of Biden's tax increase policy, it will put further pressure on US stocks, which rely on profit as the core growth momentum, and the possibility of Davis double killing in asset prices in the medium term will rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1057d43dc958261d75e394f43594b50c\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4732f2da4015dce0c89cebc61870b09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) In terms of risk appetite:</b>According to the bull-bear sentiment indicator constructed according to the survey results of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), market sentiment has begun to adjust rapidly since July this year, and the current bear market sentiment of U.S. stocks has gradually taken over. Historically speaking, the U.S. stock market has experienced a substantial adjustment after this indicator dropped rapidly from a high of over 30. At present, external shocks such as the unexpected fermentation of the epidemic and trade friction may also further impact the investor sentiment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>The economic and financial synchronization between China and the United States has declined, and the impact of external shocks on A shares has weakened</b></p><p><b>With the improvement of the synchronization between China's economy and the world after China's entry into WTO, the collapse of US stocks in 2007 has caused a severe impact on A shares.</b>The subprime mortgage crisis triggered the S&P 500 index to fall on October 10th, 2007, followed by a rapid collapse of A shares on October 16th under external shocks. During this round of bear market, the S&P 500 index fell by 56.78, the biggest decline in the bear market since 1942, while the decline of Shanghai Composite Index surpassed that of US stocks, falling all the way from 6214.04 points to 1664.93 points, with a cumulative decline of 73.21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db7e1efabd197d91b1b0dc7b9f4204f\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, the economic and financial synchronization between China and the United States has declined, and the impact of external shocks on A shares has weakened.</b>Different from the dominant position of the United States in the global economy in 2000 and 2008, at present, China's proportion in the global economy continues to rise, and combined with the asynchronous economic and monetary cycles between China and the United States, the global spillover effect of the fluctuation of the U.S. market will be much smaller than that in the early 20th century and 2008.</p><p><b>On the one hand, the global proportion of China's GDP calculated by purchasing power parity has now surpassed that of the United States, while the dependence of A shares on foreign trade has dropped significantly.</b>At the time of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, China's dependence on foreign trade, measured by import and export value/GDP, was as high as more than 60%, compared to only 34.30% as of the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd4cfaedd63b93d9cb60963d2a01d63\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the other hand, the current Sino-US financial cycle is out of sync.</b>Different from 2008, when China and the Federal Reserve started the loose monetary policy at the same time, at present, China's monetary policy and economic recovery are ahead of overseas countries and out of sync with the monetary policy of the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b01829398a07e7425bf3fa72ef7307f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In this context, the volatility of U.S. stocks will impact the sentiment of A shares in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</b></p><p><b>06. Risk warning</b></p><p>The epidemic situation in developed economies developed beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve tightened beyond expectations, and the tax increase in the United States advanced beyond expectations.</p>","source":"lsy1631604778905","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper Gets Closer! Where is the current position of US stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaper Gets Closer! Where is the current position of US stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">东亚前海策略团队</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key points of investment</b></p><p>At present, U.S. stocks are in the longest bull market in history. The S&P 500 index has gained 559.04% in the 12-year bull market since 2009, which has set a record in both duration and cumulative gains. We summarize and sort out the macro and micro characteristics of the 13 rounds of bull-bear transition in the US stock market since 1928, and compare them with the present, in order to provide enlightenment to investors:</p><p><b>On the whole, the following macro characteristics exist when the bull-bear transition in the US stock market occurs: 1) The valuation is at a high level:</b>In 12 of the 13 bull-bear transitions, the top of the market appeared, and the valuation of U.S. stocks was above the 80% quantile.<b>2) liquidity tightening:</b>Historically, there have been 10 rounds of bull-bear transitions under the background of the Federal Reserve's active adjustment of monetary policy. At the same time, the liquidity tightening is highly correlated with the turning point of US stocks.<b>3) Fundamental deterioration:</b>Ten of the 13 bear markets have occurred against the backdrop of declining corporate earnings.<b>4) Tax increases:</b>Historically, 3 rounds of bear markets have occurred against the backdrop of tax increases.<b>5) External Shock:</b>External shocks are not necessarily the main drivers of the market decline, but the suppression of investors' risk appetite by external shocks occurring nine times in a bear market will significantly accelerate the market decline.</p><p><b>From the perspective of micro indicators, U.S. stocks will have some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurs: 1) Asset allocation level:</b>Household overweight stock assets and foreign capital inflow accelerated significantly;<b>2) Valuation level:</b>P/E and price-to-book ratio are at an all-time high, the median Tobin Q is more than 2 standard deviations above the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations;<b>3) Transaction level:</b>The issuance of new shares has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the proportion of call/put options is too high;<b>4) Technical indicators:</b>S&P 500 deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%, and the proportion of stocks above MA250 has increased sharply.</p><p>At present, from the perspective of policies, funds, market characteristics, investor sentiment and valuation, the current US stocks are at historical extreme levels. This means that even if the main indexes of US stocks are still likely to go up under the resonance of global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the probability of sharp market adjustment is rising significantly. At present, investors need to be highly cautious about US stocks.</p><p><b>Through the bull-bear transition in the history of U.S. stocks in review, we think that there are many similarities between the current U.S. stock market and the period of the Internet bubble in 2000.</b>From the perspective of micro indicators, some indicators characterizing market sentiment at present warned of risks in 2018 and 2000. However, from the perspective of macro environment, the current US stocks are facing a very different macro environment from 2018, while there are many common characteristics from 2000: First, the two bull markets lasted for ten years, and the bubble was mainly spawned by growth stocks, and the structural characteristics of the bull market were remarkable; Second, profits are the main driving factor in both bull markets; Third, the extremely dovish monetary policies in the two bull markets have contributed to the expansion of the bubble; Fourth, the assets in both periods had the problem of valuation bubble two years ago, but the bubble continued with the help of the loose liquidity environment and the improvement of corporate profits driven by macro policies.</p><p><b>In the medium term, all three factors may lead to the bursting of the U.S. stock bubble.</b>1) At present, with the unexpected recovery of U.S. employment, the Fed's Taper signal may be released at the Fed's interest rate meeting in September, and the marginal tightening of monetary policy indicated by the opening of Taper will put greater pressure on the valuation of U.S. stocks; 2) On the other hand, the advancement of Biden's tax increase policy will further lead to pressure on the earnings of U.S. stocks; 3) External shocks such as the unexpected fermentation of the epidemic may also bring further downward pressure to US stocks.</p><p>Different from the dominant position of the United States in the global economy in 2000, the current proportion of China's economy in the world is increasing, and the economic and monetary cycles of China and the United States are out of synchrony. The occurrence of the bull-bear conversion of US stocks may impact the sentiment of A shares in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The epidemic situation in developed economies developed beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve tightened beyond expectations, and the tax increase in the United States advanced beyond expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Since March 2009, this round of US stock bull market has been in history for 12.5 years, with a cumulative increase of 559.04%. At present, the profit of U.S. stocks is in the repair channel, while the valuation is already at a historically high level. Under the background of Taper's gradual approach, the market has great differences on \"where is the current position of U.S. stocks\".</p><p>In the last report, \"Apocalypse of U.S. Stock Bull Market (Part 1) -The Opening, Development and End of U.S. Stock Bull Market\", we review the background and market performance of 13 bull-bear transitions in the U.S. stock market since 1928. In this report, we will continue to sort out and interpret the changes and significance of macro and micro indicators when the bull-bear transition of U.S. stocks occurred in the past, and further explore the similarities and differences between the current U.S. stock market and the past, in order to provide enlightenment to investors.</p><p><b>In the medium term, with the landing of the overseas Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet during the year, the downward pressure on the domestic economy gradually appears, the central bank promotes credit supply, and the turning point of macro liquidity is gradually approaching. In addition, the G20 summit at the end of October is expected to become an important catalyst for the improvement of market risk sentiment. From the perspective of the A-share market, with the market switching since August, the current market style has tended to be balanced. Since the beginning of this year, some fully adjusted tracks have initially had the value of left-side layout.</b></p><p><b>01. 13 rounds of bull-bear conversion since 1928</b></p><p>According to the definition of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, bear market/bull market usually refers to the market broad-based index falling/rising by more than 20% and lasting for more than 2 months. Based on this identification standard, combined with the adjustment of market consensus, we identify 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions that U.S. stocks have experienced since 1928 (the S&P 500 index began to be released in 1957 and traced back to 1928).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922d4bd5c0b314cea05ee300f3542e2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Round 1:</b>In September, 1929, the intensifying speculation pushed the valuation of U.S. stocks to a high level. the Federal Reserve took the initiative to rate hike to curb speculation. Panic drove the fastest and deepest flash Crash of U.S. stocks in history. From October 23rd to October 29th of the same year, the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 29.54%, which was known as the Great Crash in history. After that, along with the deteriorating economic fundamentals, the market also fell rapidly, and the S&P 500 index had fallen by 86.16% by July 1932.</p><p><b>Round 2:</b>In March, 1937, the premature withdrawal of policies in the recovery process after the Great Depression caused the US economy to fall into recession again. The second deterioration of fundamentals severely damaged the confidence of American investors, and the market turned its head downward again. The S&P 500 index continued to be sluggish under the haze of World War II until April 1942, with a cumulative decline of 59.99%.</p><p><b>Round 3:</b>In May 1946, after the end of World War II, with the lifting of wartime price controls and the minimum wage increase brought about by union power after veterans returned to the labor market, the United States fell into severe inflation, and the bear market also opened against the backdrop of inflation-induced monetary tightening. The market remained sluggish in the shock until the economic development returned to track in 1950 before restarting the bull market, during which the S&P 500 fell by 29.61%.</p><p><b>Round 4:</b>In August 1956, against the background of continued prosperity of the US economy and a slight rise in inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve once again implemented a tightening monetary policy. This rate hike not only caused a liquidity shock to the market, but also completely defeated the already fragile market sentiment. The S&P 500 is down 21.63% in one year.</p><p><b>Round 5:</b>In December, 1961, after four years of bull market, the Schiller P/E of S&P 500 reached a new high since June, 1930. The valuation of U.S. stocks reached a quite high level. The worry caused by over-valuation dominated this round of bear market. The S&P 500 index fell by 27.97%, which was called \"Kennedy slide\".</p><p><b>Round 6:</b>In April, 1966, under the background of the outbreak of the Vietnam War, the inflationary pressure in the United States appeared again, and the rate hike policy of the Federal Reserve triggered the Credit Crunch of the commercial banking system under the constraint of the 5.5% deposit interest rate ceiling (Regulation Q). The reluctance of commercial banks to lend finally triggered the Minsky Moment, and the S&P 500 index also fell rapidly at this stage. As of October 1996, the short-lived bear market saw the S&P 500 index drop 22.18% rapidly.</p><p><b>Round 7:</b>In December 1968, the inflation problem fermented again, and in order to prevent further deterioration of inflation, the Fed quickly tightened liquidity. After the initial shock, the market began to decline rapidly in June 1969, and it was not until the marginal easing of monetary policy in 1970 that the decline ended. By May 1970, the S&P 500 index had fallen by 36.06%.</p><p><b>Round 8:</b>In January, 1973, under the background of stagflation, the collapse of Bretton Woods, the Watergate Incident and the outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War occurred one after another. The Black Swan Event and the tightening of liquidity under the first oil crisis seriously impacted the American capital market. The S&P 500 index fell sharply from January, 1973 to October, 1974, with a cumulative decline of 48.2%.</p><p><b>Round 9:</b>In November, 1980, the US economy fell into recession again, and the decline of corporate profits under the environment of high interest rate and stagflation started this round of bear market. At the same time, the tightening monetary policy resolutely implemented by Paul Volcker to curb inflation and the Fifth Middle East War that broke out in June, 1982 hit the market again. The US stock market changed the trend of improvement in the third quarter of 1981 and fell deeply again. As of August, 1982, the decline was as high as 27.05%.</p><p><b>Round 10:</b>In August, 1987, the market ended the five-year bull market with an increase of 228.81%. The excessive rise led to the selling pressure of US stocks gradually emerging. Under the influence of the reduction of tax incentives and the unexpectedly announced high trade deficit, US stocks ushered in the biggest one-day plunge since the 20th century. On October 19th, the S&P 500 plunged by 20.5%, which is known as \"Black Monday\" in history. As of December of the same year, the S&P 500 has fallen 33.51% cumulatively.</p><p><b>Eleventh round:</b>In July 1990, the Kuwait war triggered the third oil crisis, and oil prices rose again. Against the background of inflation expectations pushing up risk-free returns and the decline of corporate profits in the recession, the S&P 500 index fell rapidly by 19.92% in just three months.</p><p><b>Round Twelve:</b>In March 2000, the burst of the dot-com bubble ended a decade-long bull market in U.S. stocks. Previously, driven by strong economic growth and stable inflation, the S&P 500 index soared by more than 416.98% in the past decade, and the bubble degree of U.S. stocks also reached an unprecedented height. With the Fed's rate hike puncturing the positive feedback cycle in the long-term low interest rate environment, the profit growth rate of listed companies dropped rapidly. Then, in March 2001, the \"Enron Incident\" and other shocks further pushed the market pessimism to the bottom. The bear market continued until October 2002, and the S&P 500 index fell by 49.15%.</p><p><b>Thirteenth round:</b>In October, 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis and led to a severe economic recession. Under the rapid deepening of the crisis, the deterioration of fundamentals and the collapse of investor confidence occurred almost at the same time, which triggered this round of bear market. The continuous deterioration of corporate profits and the impact of successive bankruptcies such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers on the market have pushed U.S. stocks down all the way. As of March 2009, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 56.78%, the biggest decline in the bear market since 1942.</p><p><b>02. The macro characteristics of the US stock market when the bull-bear transition occurs</b></p><p><b>On the whole, in terms of macro characteristics, the triggering factors of the 13 rounds of bull-bear switching in the US stock market mainly include the following points: 1) The valuation is at a high level; 2) liquidity tightening; 3) deteriorating fundamentals; 4) tax increases and other expectations to suppress earnings; 5) Other external shocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b20864f4239e9df20be4c528a0daa7b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.1. Valuations are at high levels</b></p><p>When the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversion occurred in the history of U.S. stocks, except for the low P/E of S&P 500 index in the bear market from 1980 to 1982, the valuation of U.S. stocks was above 80% of the historical quantile when the top of the other 12 rounds of markets appeared, of which 8 times were higher than 90% of the historical quantile. The P/E of S&P 500 index exceeded 95% of the historical quantile when the Great Depression in 1929, the Kennedy crash in 1961, the flash crash in 1966 and the Internet bubble in 2000 occurred.</p><p>The exceptional 1980-1982 bear market occurred in a stagflationary environment, dominated by declining corporate earnings, and the market fell further under the impact of liquidity tightening and the Fifth Middle East War.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb3c95f6f87d1bdcfe7113b3de3e350\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. liquidity tightening</b></p><p><b>In the history, 12 of the 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions have triggered the tightening of liquidity environment, of which 9 rounds are the Fed's active adjustment of discount rate or Federal Funds rate.</b></p><p>Among the other three rounds, 1) When the bear market occurred in 1937, the U.S. Treasury Department decided to write off the gold inflow to reduce excess reserves, and superimposed the policy of doubling the deposit reserve ratio of the Federal Reserve. Under the two-way tightening of base money and money multiplier, the previous strong monetary expansion came to an abrupt end, and the marginal tightening of liquidity also caused an impact on the market. 2) When the bear market began in 1990, although the Federal Reserve maintained the stability of monetary policy and the Federal Funds rate maintained a high volatile pattern during this period, inflation expectations pushed up the risk-free interest rate, and the ten-year Treasury Bond yield rapidly increased from 8.44% on July 17th to 8.92% on October 11th. 3) In the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, although Ben Bernanke creatively invested a variety of financial instruments to put liquidity into the market, the loosening of macro liquidity failed to effectively improve the micro liquidity of the market, and the rapid widening of credit spread put great pressure on the price of risky assets.</p><p>The only exception was the \"Kennedy crash\" in 1961. During this round of decline, the U.S. economy was stable, corporate profits were healthy, and interest rates remained relatively stable. According to the research of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it was more the change of investor sentiment that led to this round of market downturn.</p><p><b>At the same time, liquidity tightening is highly correlated with the inflection point of U.S. stocks.</b>Among the 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions, eight of them had asset price adjustments in the same month in liquidity tightening, while the inflection points of the capital market of the Great Depression in 1929 and the flash crash in 1966 lagged behind the development of rate hike policies by two months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cea7e94799283b9cbc2e7bf89c040de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec3c9cf3bd9b5bc0da7cdc2e03caa548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.3. Fundamental deterioration</b></p><p>In the history of U.S. stocks, 10 of the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversion occurred under the background of declining corporate profits, with only three exceptions.</p><p>Among the exceptional three rounds, in the bear markets in 1961 and 1973, under the stagflation environment brought by the rise of commodity prices, the rise of prices improved the profits of upstream enterprises. During these two periods, the profit performance of US stocks was still relatively good due to the rise of the energy sector. However, the occurrence of \"Black Monday\" in 1987 was more dominated by investors' panic. At that time, the automatic trading strategy of programmed trading and portfolio insurance, which was still in its infancy, aimed at hedging the market risk of stock portfolios by short selling stock index futures, had not yet been able to adapt to the flash crash of the market. The decline of stock prices activated more automatic stop-loss orders, which further deepened the decline of stock prices, and the market kept falling in this a vicious circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8345030c65e43922663c02bd695f8100\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.4. Tax increases and other earnings suppression expectations</b></p><p>Since 1950, the corporate tax rate in the United States has been lowered many times, with only one sharp increase occurring in 1968. This tax increase was also accompanied by the tightening of liquidity, which caused a bear market in which the S&P 500 index fell by 36.06% from 1968 to 1971.</p><p>In addition, during the bear market in 1937, Roosevelt, who was relatively cautious about fiscal deficits, implemented a tight fiscal policy of cutting federal expenditure in order to curb government expenditure and balance the budget, and implemented a tax increase policy in the context of the impending outbreak of World War II in 1940; In 1980, then President of the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>Signed the Crude Oil Windfall Tax Act of 1980, which proposed to impose a 50% windfall tax on crude oil production enterprises. This measure suppressed the enthusiasm of oil enterprises for production, brought about a rapid rise in the effective tax rate of enterprises, and finally hit the corporate profits of US stocks hard in the decline of profits in the energy sector and the high financing cost environment; In addition, in the 1961 \"Kennedy crash\", although no substantial tax increases took place, Kennedy publicly criticized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">U.S. Steel</a>It has caused the market to worry about the introduction of suppression measures for large enterprises, which has brought about the disturbance of \"tax increase\" or related suppression of profit expectations of enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d456d1850581040caca03dbe752ac0\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.5. External shock</b></p><p>As a relatively mature capital market, US stocks usually have a relatively strong ability to resist risks in history. For example, external shocks such as the Asia-Pacific financial crisis in 1998 and the European debt crisis in 2011 will only bring a temporary correction of US stock asset prices, but will not trigger a bear market. However, there are still four external shocks in history that have suppressed investors' risk appetite, which has accelerated the decline of the market and deepened the decline of U.S. stocks in the bear market.</p><p>In July 1956, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of the Suez Canal, which caused great shocks in European and American countries and affected the sentiment of American stock investors.</p><p>In April 1973, the Watergate Incident intensified, and the uncertainty brought by the storm also impacted the capital market. The outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War on October 6th led to further aggravation of external shocks. Under the influence of the war, oil prices soared and market sentiment further deteriorated.</p><p>On June 6, 1982, the Fifth Middle East War broke out, and the market again turned to worry about the occurrence of imported inflation. On August 12th of the same year, Mexico's finance minister formally informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the U.S. government that it was unable to repay $80 billion in foreign debt, and the Latin American debt crisis kicked off. The ensuing external shocks once again affected the US stock market. The US stock market changed the trend of improving in the third quarter of 1981 and fell deep again.</p><p>In August, 1990, the Kuwait War triggered the third oil crisis, and the oil price rose again. Investors were particularly worried about the crisis after the first two rounds of oil crises in 1970s, and the rising risk premium also suppressed the stock price.</p><p><b>03. The micro-characteristics of the US stock market when the bull-bear transition occurs</b></p><p><b>Historically, U.S. stocks have some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurs: 1) Asset allocation level: households overweight stock assets and foreign capital inflow significantly accelerate; 2) Valuation level: P/E and price-to-book ratio are at a high level, Tobin's median Q is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average, and Buffett's index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations; 3) Trading level: the issuance of new shares has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the proportion of call options/put options is too high; 4) Technical indicators: S&P 500 deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%, and the proportion of stocks above MA250 increases sharply.</b></p><p><b>3.1. Asset allocation level</b></p><p><b>1) Household overweight equity assets</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of asset allocation, household overallocation of equity assets often indicates the arrival of risks. When this allocation proportion exceeds 30%, the market risk is greater.</b>On the one hand, the increase of this allocation proportion reflects the rapid increase of market investor participation, which is often a harbinger of the late bull market; On the other hand, household overweight risk assets often overdraw the potential of subsequent incremental funds to enter the market. Once the macro liquidity is adjusted, it is difficult for the market to find the injection of incremental funds at the micro level to ease the pressure of liquidity contraction. In terms of historical data, the indicator exceeded 30% in the \"flash crash\" of 1966, the \"dot-com bubble\" of 2000 and the bear market under the financial crisis of 2007. At present, the allocation sentiment of American investors is rising day by day, and the proportion of households allocating equity has reached 40.25%, which also exceeds the historical extreme value of 38.25% during the dot-com bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1196cc373f0817792da6960f339c9a62\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Significant acceleration of foreign capital inflows</b></p><p><b>Similarly, the rapid influx of foreign capital is usually a distinguishing feature of the later stages of the bull market.</b>Under the effect of local preference, foreign capital often tends to invest in domestic risk assets, and it will not be attracted by the continuous rise of risk assets in U.S. stocks until the late bull market, and the inflow will be accelerated. During this period, the market risk is relatively large. This indicator successfully confirmed the occurrence of three rounds of bull-bear transitions, namely, the flash crash of Black Friday in 1987, the expansion of the Internet bubble in 2000 and the plunge under the spread of the financial crisis in 2007. At the same time, it monitored the market correction in April 2010. From the perspective of the leading and lagging relationship, with the strengthening of the learning effect on US stocks, the flow of foreign capital gradually developed from lagging behind the market in early 2000 to leading the market in recent years. In \"Black Friday\" and \"Internet bubble\", foreign capital lagged behind the market by 3 months and 8 months respectively. In the financial crisis, the outflow of foreign capital was about 2 months ahead of the adjustment of the S&P 500 index. In 2010, when the US stock market pulled back, foreign capital also seemed to be about 2 months ahead. At present, the inflow of foreign capital into US stocks has accelerated again, and the market value of net inflow of foreign capital in a single month once hit 0.7%. At the end of June, the inflection point appeared, and foreign capital began to transfer from US stocks.  </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86abb4aaec43194d41d3b67e20f86a25\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.2. Valuation Aspects</b></p><p><b>1) P/E and price-to-book ratio are at a high level</b></p><p><b>P/E is a classic measure of asset value, reflecting the number of years it takes to recover investment in stocks under current profits. From historical data, when this measure is higher than the historical 95% quantile at that time, there is a greater risk in the market.</b>In 1929, 1961, 1966, and 2000, this indicator was as high as 32.56, 21.25, 22.66, and 44.19, respectively, all higher than the historical 95% quantile, and 2018, the only year without a bear market, also saw a 19.87% pullback. At present, P/E has once again broken through the historical quantile of 95%, exceeding the historical peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, reaching 37.86 times. At the same time, the median P/E of the constituent stocks of S&P 500 index is as high as 25.02 times, breaking through the historical peak of 22.76 times during the Internet bubble period, and being in the historical extreme state since 1990.</p><p>On the other hand, from the perspective of price-to-book ratio, the price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 reached a peak of 5.04 times at the end of 1999, on the eve of the bursting of the Internet bubble. At present, this indicator is once again close to the historical extreme level, as high as 4.59 times, a new high since October 2000. The median price-to-book ratio of S&P 500 constituent stocks is also at the historical extreme level since 1990.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72dfb9cced8690fc40f868b3d87c399\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f88748b7c4835d402b76a84849485c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The median Tobin Q of the S&P 500 is more than 2 standard deviations above the 7-year moving average</b></p><p><b>The ratio between the market value of Tobin Q as a physical asset and its replacement value, when Tobin Q is too much above parity for the entire market, investors may be too optimistic about future asset returns. As this indicator has a long-term change due to the trend change of the proportion of heavy assets of enterprises, we construct a warning indicator of risk level according to 2 standard deviations compared with the moving average of the previous seven years to eliminate the trend impact.</b>Historically speaking, this indicator has been well confirmed during the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2007. Although there was no systemic risk after this indicator warned of risks in April 2015, the S&P 500 index subsequently experienced a sharp correction of 14.16%. From the leading and lagging relationship with US stocks, this indicator has a certain leadership. The inflection points of Tobin's Q indicator in the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2007 were 8 months and 4 months ahead of the index inflection point respectively, and the inflection point in 2015 was also 3 months ahead of the S&P 500 index. Currently, the Tobin Q value once again began to exceed the historical mean by more than 2 standard deviations in April 2021, and began to show an inflection point in early August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) Buffett exceeds the long-term trend by 2 standard deviations</b></p><p><b>The Buffett Index measures the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP of U.S. stocks, which Buffett calls \"the best single measure of the level of valuation at any given moment\". With the increase of the proportion of direct financing, this value also has a long-term central upward trend. Judging from the trend deviation degree after removing the trend, when the trend deviation degree of this index exceeds the mean value by more than 2 standard deviations, the market often has great risk</b>(Note: This index is the ratio of the total market value of U.S. stocks to GDP, in which the GDP data is derived from BEA, while the total market value of U.S. stocks refers to the CMV algorithm. Before 1970, the company equity counted by the Federal Reserve was used, and after 1970, the total market value of Wilshire 5000 index was used, and the total market value of two different calibers was continuously adjusted).</p><p>Historically, the Buffett index hit a high of more than one standard deviation in 1966 and 1968, and two standard deviations above the mean before the Internet bubble in 2000. Subsequently, the market changed from bull to bear. In this round of bull market, the market hit 1 standard deviation and 2 standard deviations above the mean in 2015 and 2018, respectively, and then the market recorded a correction of 14.16% and 19.87% respectively. At present, Buffett Index has broken through the long-term trend by more than 3 standard deviations, and is in a historical extreme state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9360a59851a33d7b6d923ce531f01a\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.3. Transaction level</b></p><p><b>1) The issuance of new shares increased significantly</b></p><p><b>The issuance volume of an IPO usually affects the stock price in two ways. On the one hand, when the risk appetite of market investors is generally high, the initial public offering is more likely to over-raise. However, the over-raised funds often can't be used reasonably by enterprises, thus aggravating the collapse risk of over-raised stocks. It is easy to form systemic risks in the period of extremely high IPO issuance; On the other hand, the issue of new shares also forms a siphon effect on the market in micro-liquidity, which is easy to suppress the rise of stock prices.</b>From the history since 2000, there were 643 IPOs issued in a single year during the Internet bubble. At present, the number of new shares issued in U.S. stocks has once again exceeded 600, and 788 have been issued as of September 12, 2021, a new high since 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5a37941657256518b0b509359a79f9\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Margin liabilities exceed the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations</b></p><p><b>The scale of margin liabilities reflects the leverage level of market transactions. Historically, when the leverage ratio is too high, the market often accumulates greater potential risks. Once the index starts to fall, it is easy to cause systemic risks under the chain reaction of leveraged funds stop loss.</b>During the Internet bubble in 2000 and before the global financial crisis in 2007, the scale of margin liabilities in the US stock market exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations. Among them, in the Internet bubble in 2000, this indicator and S&P 500 showed an inflection point at the same time; In the financial crisis of 2007, this indicator was about three months ahead of the inflection point of the index. Starting from March 2021, the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market once again greatly exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations, and began to show an inflection point at the end of June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) Decline in the proportion of low-priced stocks</b></p><p><b>Historically, there is often a round of low-priced stocks (Penny Stock below $5) in the late stage of the bull market and the eve of the adjustment of risky assets. Under the background of the influx of off-market marginal investors, low-priced stocks can often make excess returns.</b>On the whole, when the proportion of low-priced stocks is less than 5%, the accumulated market risk is relatively large, which is confirmed by the bear market in 2007, the 19.15% callback under the European debt crisis in 2011, the 12.08% callback in August 2015 and the 19.87% callback in 2018. As of September 12th, this indicator once again broke through the critical level of 5%, with a reading of 4.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accb19c41170e09acfed15d4ad569d0c\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4) Excessive Call/Put Ratio in U.S. Stocks</b></p><p><b>The call/put ratio measures the strength of bullish sentiment compared with bearish sentiment in the U.S. stock market, and it tends to rise to more than 200% when investor sentiment rises to the extreme at the end of the bull market.</b>Judging from the history of U.S. stocks since 1991, this indicator once exceeded 200% under the Internet bubble pushed up by irrational emotions in 2000, reaching the extreme point of 220%. At present, this indicator has gone up straight after the restart of QE under the background of the epidemic in 2020. The latest reading is 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is already in a dangerous position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4974d62d91c36134dabdc00154f3d30e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.4. Technical aspects</b></p><p><b>1) S&P 500 deviates from long-term trend by more than 50%</b></p><p><b>The asset price has an inherent trend of fluctuation around the trend value, so when the stock index deviates from the trend value for a long time, there will often be \"mean regression\". Looking at historical data, the markets have all seen significant corrections when the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 has deviated by more than 50% from its long-term trend.</b>At the inflection point of the bull market in 1937, the trend deviation of the S&P 500 reached 65.64%; At the inflection points of 1966 and 1968, the index reached 62.21% and 56.53%, respectively; Before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the index reached a historical peak of 79.98%. At present, the S&P 500 index has deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020. As of September 10th, the trend deviation is as high as 78.20%, which is close to the historical peak on the eve of the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8691c9ea65ad53e46fa36a2ac90237e2\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The proportion of stocks above MA250 increased sharply</b></p><p><b>Historically, when most stocks in the stock market were in their long-term<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trend line</a>When above, the market often has a greater risk of callback.</b>Judging from the proportion of stocks above MA250 in S&P 500 and Russell3000 constituent stocks, in January 1998, March 2010 and April 2011, the proportion of stocks above MA250 in S&P 500 constituent stocks exceeded 90%, and the proportion of stocks above MA250 in Russell3000 constituent stocks exceeded 80%. In these three rounds, the market recorded a correction of more than 15%, and the index warning inflection points were 6 months, 2 months and 3 months ahead of the market respectively. At present, both indicators have exceeded the warning values of 90% and 80% again since January 2021, and the inflection points appeared in May 2021 and March 2021 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c128791cae417bda367438076f79ffc2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>04. The current US stock environment is more similar to that of 2000</b></p><p><b>4.1. Key characteristics of this bull market</b></p><p><b>At present, the U.S. stock market is in the 14th round of bull market since 1928.</b>This round of bull market started on March 10th, 2009, and has gone through 12.5 years, making it the longest bull market in the history of U.S. stocks. The previous longest bull market was the Internet bubble from October 12th, 1990 to March 24th, 2000, spanning 9.5 years. At the same time, this round of bull market is also the biggest bull market in history. The 12-year slow bull market has made US stocks rise by 559.04%, which also surpasses the 416.98% increase during the Internet bubble and the 323.36% increase from July 1932 to March 1937 during the economic recovery after the Great Depression.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddff39f22ac7ffbdcce7fc5d4fbcbeff\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10ebdb232ba20988d91772362e926c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the end of the global financial crisis in 2008, driven by strong stimulus policies such as quantitative easing, market confidence gradually recovered, and the US stock market returned to its bullish path in March 2009. This round of bull market roughly shows four stages of growth.</p><p><b>Phase 1: March 2009 to July 2011 (599 trading days, up 98.81%).</b>During this period, the economic bottom out, loose liquidity, economic recovery and investor confidence recovery jointly drove the market upward at this stage;</p><p><b>Phase 2: November 2012 to August 2015 (691 trading days, up 55.35%).</b>European debt crisis,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>After huge losses, fiscal cliffs and other bad news were exhausted, the US economy returned to the track of moderate growth. During this period, the market rose moderately, among which biotechnology companies performed outstandingly, driving the Nasdaq index to quickly surpass the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones index;</p><p><b>Phase 3: July 2016 to September 2018 (558 trading days, up 39.53%),</b>One year after the market was affected by the withdrawal of QE and the shock adjustment of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, Trump's tax cut and fiscal stimulus policy after taking office constituted the main driving force for the US stock market to rise again. Stimulated by tax cut and fiscal policy, the profits of American enterprises continued to grow during this period, which pushed the US stock market to continue its slow bull market, while the performance and market performance of technology stocks were particularly outstanding;</p><p><b>Phase 4: January 2019 to date (683 trading days, up 89.64%).</b>In the fourth quarter of 2018, after the market was rapidly corrected by the soaring yield of Treasury Bond, the shift of macro liquidity under the background of the global economic recession in 2019 drove the current round of market conditions. During this period, the market has been attacking all the way since the impact of the epidemic in early 2020. At this stage, the role of valuation factors has been significantly improved, especially after the quantitative easing policy was restarted in 2020 in response to the epidemic. The rise of valuation driven by loose liquidity has brought the Nasdaq index to a rapid rise, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes have also risen significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1291e241975d6d0ac900d368b10f29\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the current round of US stock bull market, it mainly shows the following characteristics:</p><p><b>1) This round of bull market of large-cap stocks in U.S. stocks is driven by both profit and valuation, while small-cap stocks measured by Russell2000 are mainly driven by profit unilaterally.</b>Since 2009, 64.13% of the current S&P 500 gains have been driven by profit, 9.45% by the decline in risk-free interest rates, and 26.42% by risk appetite. Earnings are the core driver of this bull market. In 2019-2020, the valuation driving effect caused by liquidity easing increased significantly, and the contribution of liquidity easing to the market growth in 2019-2020 reached 64.08% and 225.14%, respectively. Looking at small-cap stocks as measured by the Russell2000 index, earnings factors contributed 80.22% of the gains during the current bull market, while valuation factors influenced 19.78%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4642e47ffe5547e7bfe92be55bca3de\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77e5707664b1cf8b1305ea7f9ea6855\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2) The performance of technology and Internet companies is particularly outstanding.</b>Judging from the 11 industries classified by GICS of S&P 500 Index, information technology companies have performed particularly well in this bull market, ranking first among all industries with an increase of 1268.85%, and the excess rate of return is as high as 712.32% compared with S&P 500 Index. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The discretionary consumption industry represented by etc. also performed outstanding, achieving an excess return of 466.83% compared with the S&P 500 index. The technology stock market is the most obvious in FAAMG. In terms of market value weighting, five technology Internet giants rose by 3,906% in total during this period, far exceeding the rise and fall of the three major stock indexes. From the perspective of EPS changes, profit plays the most important role in FAAMG market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98440f7788f3df3c7e9d71113053883a\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d8e6fc7067afabcdb7e6b508c56e3b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>3) The significant promotion of the repurchase of listed companies to the market is another significant feature of this bull market.</b>In this round of bull market, the repurchase of listed companies has played a huge role in boosting it. From the perspective of repurchase scale, the single-quarter repurchase scale of the listing announcement in the second quarter of 2009 at the beginning of this round of bull market was only USD 32.58 billion. By the first quarter of 2019, the single-quarter repurchase scale expanded to USD 204.252 billion, and it continued to maintain the single-quarter repurchase scale of more than USD 150 billion for many quarters. Repurchase has a significant effect on the stock price. On the one hand, repurchase reduces the company's share capital, which can directly increase the company's earnings per share and return on net assets, and drive the stock price upward from the perspective of performance by reducing the weighted average capital cost. On the other hand, repurchase can improve the level of corporate governance by optimizing the ownership structure; Finally, the incremental demand provided by share repurchase and the positive signals released also have significant support for the stock price. Based on this, repurchase in this bull market has played a significant role in promoting EPS and stock price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6deec43db8c4c89438918dcffe777a\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. In terms of micro indicators, where are the current U.S. stocks</b></p><p>From the perspective of policies, funds, market characteristics, market trading sentiment and valuation, we<b>It is believed that the current US stock market has some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurred in history. This means that even if the main index of U.S. stocks is still likely to go up under the resonance of global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the upside of the market is relatively limited. At this point, investment in U.S. stocks needs to be cautious.</b></p><p><b>From the various micro-indicators characterizing the state of the market:</b></p><p><b>1) At present, among the asset allocation indicators:</b>At present, the allocation sentiment of American investors is rising day by day, and the proportion of households allocating stocks has reached 40.25%, which also exceeds the historical extreme value of 36.98% during the Internet bubble; In terms of foreign capital, in June, the market value of net inflow of foreign capital in a single month accounted for 0.7%, a new high in nearly 10 years. Since then, the inflection point appeared, which was about 2 months ahead of the index in the financial crisis in 2007 and the market correction in 2010.</p><p><b>2) Among the indicators reflecting the reasonableness of valuation:</b>P/E once again broke through the historical quantile of 95%, surpassing the historical second peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, reaching 37.86 times; The median P/E of the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 index has reached the historical extreme level; The price-to-book ratio has also exceeded 4 times again, a new high since 2000; Tobin Q value and Buffett index break through the historical mean and historical trend value by more than 2 and 3 standard deviations respectively, and are both in the historical extreme state.</p><p><b>3) Among the indicators at the transaction level:</b>The number of new shares issued in U.S. stocks once again exceeded 600, with 788 issued as of August 20, 2021, a new high since 2000; By the end of May 2021, the inflection point after the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market greatly exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations appeared in June. In the 2007 financial crisis, this indicator was about 3 months ahead of the index inflection point; The proportion of low-priced stocks in Russell3000 index has once again reached the critical level of 5%; The call/put ratio went up straight after QE restarted in the context of the epidemic in 2020, with the latest reading of 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is already in a more dangerous position.</p><p><b>4) Among the technical indicators:</b>The S&P 500 has deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020, and as of September 10, the trend deviation is as high as 78.20%; The proportion of stocks above MA250 in the constituent stocks of S&P 500 and Russell3000 index once again exceeded the warning value, and then turned down in May and March respectively. In the previous three callbacks, this technical indicator was about 4 months ahead of the index callback.</p><p><b>4.3. In terms of macro characteristics, the current U.S. stock market is different from 2018</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of micro indicators, some indicators that we currently monitor to characterize the market state have had risk warnings in 2000 and 2018. However, from the perspective of macro environment, the current US stock market is facing a very different macro environment from that of 2018.</b></p><p><b>Fundamentally,</b>In 2018, Trump's tax cut bill greatly improved the profit environment of enterprises. The policy made the profits of American multinational companies return, and the improvement of S&P 500 earnings offset the sharp decline in valuation. At present, Biden's U.S. jobs plan will raise taxes on enterprises, and the implementation of this policy will drag down American corporate profits, which is more similar to the pressure on corporate profits in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98613e8dd4e8e7028f8bb8b24a22e3e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"1614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In monetary policy,</b>In 2018, the Federal Reserve was already in the rate hike cycle. After the liquidity expectation was tightened, there was still room for development in the context of the global economic slowdown the following year. At present, on the one hand, with the gradual control of the epidemic, the global economy as a whole is in the recovery range; on the other hand, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is already very large, which reduces the room for further implementation of loose monetary policy. At the same time, the deterioration of the epidemic may also impact market sentiment and suppress risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e9ad7389637055420ba558cb92b261\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. Overall, the current U.S. stock market is more similar to that of 2000</b></p><p><b>Through the review of bull-bear conversion in the history of U.S. stocks, we think that there are many similarities between the current U.S. stock market and 2000.</b></p><p><b>First, the two bull markets lasted for ten years, and the bubble was mainly spawned by growth stocks. The structural characteristics of the bull market were remarkable.</b>On the whole, the 2000 bull market and the current bull market lasted for 9.5 years and 12.5 years respectively, and the S&P 500 index increased by 416.98% and 559.04% respectively, which were the top two in terms of duration and increase; From the industry point of view, the structural characteristics of the two rounds of stock markets are remarkable. In the 2000 bull market, Internet-related communication technology enterprises increased astonishingly, which promoted the information technology industry to achieve a remarkable excess rate of return. In this bull market, the main excess returns of the US stock market were also achieved by the information technology industry and optional consumer industries represented by FAAMG; From the perspective of individual stocks, both bull markets are structural bull markets driven by a few individual stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97b5906c0efb0c829712e8ab756fbbf\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc8bcb41cff71c0b3654a9b39f59b34\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"885\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, earnings were the main driving factor in both bull markets.</b>In the 2000 bull market, the three driving factors of profit, risk-free interest rate and risk appetite accounted for 69.79%, 19.72% and 10.49% respectively; In this round of bull market, the three driving factors accounted for 74.59%, 9.14% and 16.27% respectively. Profit is the core driving factor in both bull markets, and the upward trend of liquidity and risk appetite has also played a boosting role.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d80b56e3cc0933b034a1915e8322b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, extremely dovish monetary policy has contributed to the expansion of the bubble.</b>At the beginning of his tenure, Alan Greenspan was widely regarded as an Inflation Fighter. However, over time, Alan Greenspan's stance became more dovish, and was evaluated as a \"dove in hawk's clothing\" by a Reuters editorial. After the market was generally aware of the existence of the bubble in 1996, Alan Greenspan still rejected rate hike against all opinions, and cut interest rates again when the capital bubble was about to burst under the \"Southeast Asian financial crisis\" in 1998. This series of loose monetary policy orientations contributed to the expansion of the bubble in the 2000 bull market. The same situation also happened in this bull market. When Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jeremy Powell were chairmen, the policy orientation of the Federal Reserve was also pigeon-oriented. Four rounds of QE injected a lot of liquidity into the market, and the valuation of the US stock market was significantly pushed up during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4097d0112ecaf093fa646def2defd8c4\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84211344cf593ac529aba7befd20da16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, the assets of both periods had the problem of valuation bubble two years ago, but the bubble continued with the help of the loose liquidity environment and the improvement of corporate profits driven by macro policies.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the deviation of S&P 500 from the long-term trend value, Schiller P/E and many other indicators, the asset bubble of U.S. stocks was relatively serious in 1998. At the same time, with the rapid decline of the US Dollar Index in the Southeast Asian crisis, the continuous decline of the profits of listed companies, and the marginal tightening of the monetary environment of rising interest rates, the S&P 500 index underwent a periodic correction.</b>U.S. stock valuations were already at high levels in 1998, with the S&P 500 Schiller P/E breaking through the pre-Depression level of 32.56 at the end of 1997, hitting a record high,<b>Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett have also warned of the risk of US stock bubbles.</b>The third quarter of 1997 was the high point of the profit of U.S. stocks at that time. With the successive disclosure of semi-annual reports in 1998, the profit of American enterprises dropped marginally for three consecutive quarters, and the market gradually formed a consensus expectation for the continuous decline of the performance of listed companies. On the other hand, the upward interest rate superimposed the rapid decline of the US Dollar Index under the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the marginal tightening of liquidity environment also had an impact on the valuation of US stocks. Under various negative factors, the S&P 500 index recorded a 19.15% correction between July 17, 1998 and September 4, 1998.<b>However, driven by the liquidity of the Fed's monetary policy shift at that time, the bubble of U.S. stocks continued to expand for two years.</b></p><p>Affected by the spread of the \"Southeast Asian financial crisis\", the Federal Reserve lowered the target interest rate of federal funds three times in a row from September 29th to November 17th, 1998. Under the stimulation of monetary policy, the profits of American enterprises rebounded again, and the shift of liquidity environment superimposed, and US stocks rose again. It was not until March 21st, 2000 that the Fed's active rate hike burst the bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb0d40d2fc3ad66b6aab753bea40a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A similar situation has happened in this round of U.S. stocks.</b>In this round of the longest bull market in the history of U.S. stocks, the Schiller P/E of the S&P 500 Index once again broke through the extreme value of the Great Depression in January 2018, reaching 33.31 times.<b>Alan Greenspan also warned of the valuation risks of U.S. stocks again on January 31, 2018.</b>In terms of monetary policy, Jerome Powell, newly nominated by Trump on February 5th, did not \"bias pigeon\" as Trump expected. Instead, he issued an optimistic outlook for the US economy, which made the market rate hike expect to rise. The U.S. stock market also fell rapidly from September 20, 2018 with the rapid rise of the yield of the U.S. Treasury Bond, with a cumulative decline of 19.87% as of December 24.<b>Similar to 1998, this round of US stock bubble did not burst, but restarted the bull market again in 2019.</b>On the one hand, Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act improved the profit environment of American enterprises. The annual profit of American enterprises increased rapidly from $112.8 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to $141.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, with a compound annualized growth rate of 12.13%. On the other hand, with the slowdown of global economic growth, the monetary policies of major central banks headed by the Federal Reserve have also turned again. In May 2019, Powell delivered a speech, making it clear that he would take action at an appropriate time to boost the weak economy. Superimposing the huge amount of fiscal and monetary policies since the epidemic, the bubble of U.S. stocks continued to expand for two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5236df1c34e6eaf44b9679a37b9ad9ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, overseas liquidity has been marginally tightened,</b>The growth rate of M2 in the United States, Europe and Japan has shown signs of peaking.<b>At the same time, Biden's tax increase policy has suppressed the profits of U.S. stock companies.</b>The Biden administration's Made in America Tax Plan and Family Plan will raise taxes on the wealthy, capital gains and corporations at the same time, and the earnings of U.S. stocks will be impacted. The impact of tax increases may be structural, and technology stocks may bear the brunt. Doubling GILTI's tax rate and the preliminary agreement on a global common minimum rate of 15% with the G7 may make<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The tax pressure of multinational Internet and technology companies with a large proportion of overseas revenue has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae34a20e783168efc131f7b09ecb32a\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb4a8dff0f65bccb57513e8e008a182\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, three factors may lead to the bull-bear conversion of U.S. stocks: 1) In terms of liquidity:</b>Combined with history, the unexpected tightening of monetary policy is generally the most important factor in the conversion between bulls and bears. In history, 7 of the 13 rounds of switching in the US stock market were punctured by the tightening of monetary policy. The excess liquidity index measured by the difference between the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and the year-on-year growth rate of nominal GDP changed about 6 months ahead of the P/E of S&P 500 index. Since May this year, the excess liquidity of the United States has turned from positive to negative. In addition, at present, as the employment repair in the United States has reached 75%, the Fed's Taper signal may be released with the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. This final statement will determine the final progress of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57969b185f1d31d18a6fbda29f911f7f\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f76c0ffa0f994260f203b2e017b012\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Profit:</b>The expected decline in corporate profits caused by tax increases or tax increases has also led to four rounds of bull-bear transitions in history. On the one hand, from the perspective of economic form,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The economic surprise index, which is about two months ahead of the excess return of the S&P 500 relative to Treasury Bond, has fallen sharply lower and has fallen back to-58.8. On the other hand, judging from the dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 indexes in the next 12 months, although both of them have fallen back with the improvement of corporate profit expectations under the economic recovery after entering 2021, they are still at the historical highs of 88% and 92% respectively. The earnings repair has been fully reflected in the current stock price, and future tax increases will further suppress future earnings. In the medium term, whether it is the re-impact of the economy under the repeated epidemic or the acceleration of Biden's tax increase policy, it will put further pressure on US stocks, which rely on profit as the core growth momentum, and the possibility of Davis double killing in asset prices in the medium term will rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1057d43dc958261d75e394f43594b50c\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4732f2da4015dce0c89cebc61870b09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) In terms of risk appetite:</b>According to the bull-bear sentiment indicator constructed according to the survey results of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), market sentiment has begun to adjust rapidly since July this year, and the current bear market sentiment of U.S. stocks has gradually taken over. Historically speaking, the U.S. stock market has experienced a substantial adjustment after this indicator dropped rapidly from a high of over 30. At present, external shocks such as the unexpected fermentation of the epidemic and trade friction may also further impact the investor sentiment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>The economic and financial synchronization between China and the United States has declined, and the impact of external shocks on A shares has weakened</b></p><p><b>With the improvement of the synchronization between China's economy and the world after China's entry into WTO, the collapse of US stocks in 2007 has caused a severe impact on A shares.</b>The subprime mortgage crisis triggered the S&P 500 index to fall on October 10th, 2007, followed by a rapid collapse of A shares on October 16th under external shocks. During this round of bear market, the S&P 500 index fell by 56.78, the biggest decline in the bear market since 1942, while the decline of Shanghai Composite Index surpassed that of US stocks, falling all the way from 6214.04 points to 1664.93 points, with a cumulative decline of 73.21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db7e1efabd197d91b1b0dc7b9f4204f\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, the economic and financial synchronization between China and the United States has declined, and the impact of external shocks on A shares has weakened.</b>Different from the dominant position of the United States in the global economy in 2000 and 2008, at present, China's proportion in the global economy continues to rise, and combined with the asynchronous economic and monetary cycles between China and the United States, the global spillover effect of the fluctuation of the U.S. market will be much smaller than that in the early 20th century and 2008.</p><p><b>On the one hand, the global proportion of China's GDP calculated by purchasing power parity has now surpassed that of the United States, while the dependence of A shares on foreign trade has dropped significantly.</b>At the time of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, China's dependence on foreign trade, measured by import and export value/GDP, was as high as more than 60%, compared to only 34.30% as of the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd4cfaedd63b93d9cb60963d2a01d63\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the other hand, the current Sino-US financial cycle is out of sync.</b>Different from 2008, when China and the Federal Reserve started the loose monetary policy at the same time, at present, China's monetary policy and economic recovery are ahead of overseas countries and out of sync with the monetary policy of the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b01829398a07e7425bf3fa72ef7307f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In this context, the volatility of U.S. stocks will impact the sentiment of A shares in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</b></p><p><b>06. Risk warning</b></p><p>The epidemic situation in developed economies developed beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve tightened beyond expectations, and the tax increase in the United States advanced beyond expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/486616\">东亚前海策略团队</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/486616","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167535940","content_text":"投资要点\n当下美股正处于历史最长的牛市之中。标普 500 指数在 2009 年以来的 12 年牛市中累计涨幅高达 559.04%，无论是延续时长还是累计涨幅都创下了历史记录。我们通过对 1928 年以来美股市场 13 轮美股牛熊转换阶段的宏观和微观特征进行归纳和梳理，比对当下，以期对投资者提供启示：\n整体来看，历轮美股市场牛熊转换发生时存在以下的宏观特征：1）估值处于高位：13 轮牛熊转换中有 12 轮市场顶部出现时美股估值均位于 80% 分位数以上。2）流动性收紧：历史上有 10 轮牛熊转换在美联储主动调整货币政策背景下发生，同时，流动性收紧与美股拐点出现有着高度的相关性。3）基本面恶化：13 轮熊市中有 10 轮均发生在企业盈利下滑的背景下。4）加税：历史上，3 轮熊市发生在加税背景下。5）外部冲击：外部冲击不一定是市场下跌的主要推手，但熊市中 9 次出现的外部冲击对投资者风险偏好的压制会显著加速市场走跌。\n从微观指标来看，美股在牛熊转换发生时会有一些共同特征：1）资产配置层面：家庭超配股票资产、外资流入显著加速；2）估值层面：市盈率与市净率位居历史高位、托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上、巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 1.5 个标准差以上；3）交易层面：新股发行量显著攀升、市场杠杆率过高、低价股占比下滑、看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高；4）技术指标层面：标普 500 偏离长期趋势 50% 以上、MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升。\n目前从政策、资金、市场特征、投资者情绪及估值多个维度看，当前美股都处于历史极端水平。这意味着，即便在下半年全球经济复苏共振之下美股主要指数仍有上行可能，但市场出现大幅调整的概率正在显著上升，当前时点投资者对于美股需要保持高度谨慎。\n通过复盘美股历史上牛熊转换，我们认为当前美股市场与 2000 年互联网泡沫期间有诸多相似之处。从微观指标上看，当前部分表征市场情绪的指标在 2018 年与 2000 年都曾警示过风险，但从宏观环境来看，当下美股面临着与 2018 年迥异的宏观环境，而与 2000 年则存在着多方面共性特征：第一，两轮牛市均历时十年之久，泡沫主要由成长股催生，牛市结构性特征显著；第二，两轮牛市中盈利均为主要驱动因素；第三，两轮牛市中极度鸽派的货币政策均助长了泡沫的膨胀；第四，两段时期的资产均在 2 年前即已出现估值泡沫化的问题，不过在宽松的流动性环境与宏观政策推动的企业盈利改善助力下泡沫得以进一步延续。\n中期来看，三方面因素均可能导致美股的泡沫破灭。1）当下随着美国就业的超预期修复，联储 Taper 信号或于 9 月联储议息会议释放，Taper 开启预示的货币政策边际趋紧将对美股估值造成较大压力；2）另一方面，拜登加税政策的推进也将进一步导致美股盈利承压；3）疫情超预期发酵等外部冲击同样可能给美股带来进一步的下行压力。\n区别于 2000 年美国在全球经济中的主导地位，当前中国经济在全球占比提升，叠加中美经济和货币周期不同步，美股牛熊转换的发生或将在短期内冲击 A 股情绪，但长期而言，A 股走势将更多由内部因素主导。\n风险提示\n发达经济体疫情发展超预期，美联储超预期收紧，美国加税推进超预期。\n正文\n自 2009 年 3 月以来，本轮美股牛市已经历史 12.5 年，累计涨幅高达 559.04%。当前美股盈利处于修复通道，而估值已然处于历史高位，在 Taper 渐行渐近的背景下市场对于 “当下美股处在什么位置” 存在较大分歧。\n在上一篇报告《美股牛市启示录（上）—— 美股历轮牛市的开启、发展与终结》中我们复盘了 1928 年以来美股市场 13 轮牛熊转换时期的背景与市场表现。在本篇报告中，我们将继续梳理、解读过去美股牛熊转换发生时宏微观指标的变化和意义，进一步探讨当下美股市场与历往的异同之处，以期对投资者提供启示。\n中期来看，随着海外联储缩表年内落地，国内经济下行压力逐步显现，央行推动信贷投放，宏观流动性拐点渐行渐近，此外 10 月末 G20 峰会有望成为推动市场风险情绪改善的重要催化剂。从 A 股市场来看，随着 8 月以来的市场切换，当前市场风格已经趋于均衡。今年以来部分调整较为充分的赛道已经初步具备左侧布局价值。\n01 、1928 年以来的 13 轮牛熊转换\n根据美国证券交易委员会的定义，熊市 / 牛市通常指市场宽基指数下跌 / 上涨 20% 以上并持续 2 个月以上，基于这一识别标准，结合市场共识的调整，我们识别出 1928 年（标普 500 指数 1957 年开始发布，并追溯至 1928 年）以来美股经历过的 13 轮牛熊转换。\n\n第一轮：1929 年 9 月，愈演愈烈的投机活动将美股估值推至高位，联储主动加息以遏制投机活动，恐慌情绪推动下美股发生了历史上速度最快、程度最深的闪崩，同年 10 月 23 日至 10 月 29 日道琼斯工业指数下跌 29.54%，史称大崩盘（the Great Crash）。在此之后，伴随着经济基本面的不断恶化，市场也快速下跌，标普 500 指数至 1932 年 7 月累计下跌 86.16%。\n第二轮：1937 年 3 月，大萧条后复苏过程中政策过早的退出导致美国经济再度陷入衰退之中，基本面的二次恶化重创了美国投资者的信心，市场再度拐头向下，标普 500 指数在二战的阴霾的下持续低迷至 1942 年 4 月，累计下跌 59.99%。\n第三轮：1946 年 5 月，二战结束后随着战时价格管制的解除与退伍军人重回劳动力市场后工会力量带来的最低工资上涨，美国陷入了严重的通货膨胀，熊市也在通胀引发的货币紧缩背景下开启。市场在震荡中持续低迷直至 1950 年经济发展回到正轨才重启牛市，期间标普 500 累计下跌 29.61%。\n第四轮：1956 年 8 月，在美国经济持续繁荣、通胀压力小幅抬头的背景下，美联储再度实施了紧缩性货币政策。此次加息不仅对市场造成了流动性冲击，同时也彻底击溃了本就脆弱的市场情绪。标普 500 指数在一年时间里下行了 21.63%。\n第五轮：1961 年 12 月，在经历了 4 年牛市后标普 500 的席勒市盈率创 1930 年 6 月以来新高，美股的估值达到了相当的高位，过高估值引发的担忧情绪主导了此轮熊市，标普 500 指数累计下跌 27.97%，被称为 “肯尼迪大跌”（Kennedy slide）。\n第六轮：1966 年 4 月，越战爆发的背景下美国通胀压力再度显现，而联储的加息政策在 5.5% 的存款利率上限（Regulation Q）的约束下引发了商业银行体系的信贷紧缩（Credit Crunch），商业银行的惜贷最终触发了明斯基时刻（Minsky Moment），标普 500 指数也在这一阶段发生了快速的下跌。截至 1996 年 10 月，这轮短暂的熊市间标普 500 指数快速下跌了 22.18%。\n第七轮：1968 年 12 月，通胀问题再次发酵，为了防止通胀的进一步恶化，联储快速收紧流动性。市场在初期震荡后由 1969 年 6 月开始快速走低，直至 1970 年货币政策边际放松才得以结束下跌行情，截至 1970 年 5 月标普 500 指数累计下跌 36.06%。\n第八轮：1973 年 1 月，滞胀背景下布雷顿森林瓦解、水门事件、第四次中东战争爆发接连发生，黑天鹅事件与第一次石油危机下流动性的收紧严重冲击了美国的资本市场，标普 500 指数在 1973 年 1 月至 1974 年 10 月间大幅下跌，累计跌幅达到了 48.2%。\n第九轮：1980 年 11 月，美国经济再度陷入了衰退，高利率滞胀环境下企业盈利的下滑开启了此轮熊市，同时，保罗・沃尔克为遏制通胀而坚决实施的紧缩性货币政策和 1982 年 6 月爆发的第五次中东战争再度冲击了市场，美股一改 1981 年三季度转好的趋势，再度陷入深跌，截至 1982 年 8 月，跌幅高达 27.05%。\n第十轮：1987 年 8 月，市场结束了长达 5 年涨幅高达 228.81% 的牛市，过快的上涨导致美股的抛售压力逐渐显现，在税收优惠减少与意外公布的高贸易逆差影响下，美股迎来了 20 世纪以来最大幅度的单日暴跌，10 月 19 日标普 500 暴跌 20.5%，史称 “黑色星期一”。截至同年 12 月，标普 500 累计下跌 33.51%。\n第十一轮：1990 年 7 月，科威特战争引发了第三次石油危机，油价再度走高，在通胀预期推高无风险收益率与经济衰退企业盈利下滑的背景下，标普 500 指数在短短 3 个月间快速下跌 19.92%。\n第十二轮：2000 年 3 月，互联网泡沫的破灭结束了美股长达十年的牛市。此前在强劲的经济增长和稳定的通胀推动下，标普 500 指数在这十年中飙升了 416.98% 以上，美股的泡沫化程度也达到了空前的高度，随着联储加息对长期低利率环境下正反馈循环的刺破，上市公司盈利增速快速回落，随后 2001 年 3 月 “安然事件” 等冲击更进一步推动市场悲观情绪滑落至谷底，熊市一直延续至 2002 年 10 月，标普 500 指数累计下跌 49.15%。\n第十三轮：2007 年 10 月，次贷危机演变为金融危机并导致了经济的严重衰退，危机快速的深化下，基本面的恶化与投资者信心的崩溃几乎同时发生，触发了此轮熊市。企业盈利的持续恶化与 “贝尔斯登”“雷曼兄弟” 等接连破产对市场的冲击推动美股一路走低，截至 2009 年 3 月，标普 500 指数累计下跌 56.78%，创 1942 年以来熊市的最大跌幅。\n02、牛熊转换发生时美股市场的宏观特征\n整体来看，在宏观特征上 13 轮美股市场的牛熊切换触发因素主要有以下几点：1）估值处于高位；2）流动性收紧；3）基本面恶化；4）加税及其他压制盈利的预期；5）其他外部冲击。\n\n2.1. 估值处于高位\n美股历史上的 13 轮牛熊转换发生时，除 1980-1982 年间的熊市标普 500 指数市盈率处于低位外，其他 12 轮市场顶部出现时美股估值均位于 80% 的历史分位数以上，其中有 8 次高于 90% 的历史分位数，而 1929 年 “大萧条”、1961 年 “肯尼迪大跌”、1966 年 “闪崩” 和 2000 年互联网泡沫发生时标普 500 指数市盈率均超过了 95% 的历史分位数。\n例外的 1980-1982 年间的熊市发生在滞胀环境之下，企业盈利下滑主导了此轮熊市，市场在流动性收紧和第五次中东战争的冲击下进一步下跌。\n\n2.2 . 流动性收紧\n历史上 13 轮牛熊转换中有 12 轮的触发因素均包括了流动性环境的收紧，其中 9 轮均为美联储主动调整贴现率或联邦基金利率。\n其他 3 轮中，1）1937 年熊市发生时，美国财政部决定对黄金流入进行冲销以减少超额准备金，叠加联储存款准备金率翻倍的政策，在基础货币和货币乘数的双向紧缩下此前强劲的货币扩张戛然而止，流动性的边际收紧同样对市场造成了冲击。2）1990 年熊市开启时，虽然联储在这一期间保持了货币政策的稳定，联邦基金利率也维持了高位震荡格局，但通胀预期推高了无风险利率，十年期国债收益率由 7 月 17 日的 8.44% 迅速提高至 10 月 11 日的 8.92%。3）2007 年次贷危机中，虽然本・伯南克创造性投入了多种金融工具向市场投放流动性，但宏观流动性的宽松并未能有效改善市场的微观流动性，信用利差迅速走阔对风险资产的价格造成了巨大压力。\n唯一例外的仅有 1961 年的 “肯尼迪大跌”，此轮下跌期间，美国经济平稳，企业盈利健康，利率也保持了相对稳定，根据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的研究，更多是投资者情绪的变化导致了此轮市场的低迷。\n同时，流动性收紧与美股拐点有着高度相关性。13 轮牛熊转换中，有 8 次均在流动性收紧的当月即出现了资产价格调整，而 1929 年 “大萧条” 和 1966 年 “闪崩” 的资本市场拐点则相较加息政策的开展滞后了 2 个月。\n\n2.3. 基本面恶化\n美股历史上 13 轮牛熊转换中有 10 轮均发生在企业盈利下滑的背景下，例外的仅有三轮。\n例外的三轮中，1961 年及 1973 年的熊市中，在大宗商品涨价带来的滞胀环境下，价格上涨改善上游企业盈利，这两段期间内受能源板块的拉升美股盈利表现依然相对良好。而 1987 年 “黑色星期一” 的发生则更多由投资者恐慌情绪主导，当时还处于起步期的程序化交易和旨在通过卖空股指期货来对冲股票投资组合的市场风险的投资组合保险这一自动化交易策略尚未能适应市场的闪崩，股价的下跌激活更多自动交易的止损订单，止损订单则进一步加深股价下跌，市场在这一恶性循环中不断走跌。\n\n2.4. 加税及其他压制盈利的预期\n1950 年以来，美国企业税率多次下调，仅在 1968 年发生了一次大幅上调，而这次加税也伴随着流动性的收紧造成了 1968-1971 年间标普 500 指数下跌 36.06% 的熊市。\n除此之外，1937 年的熊市间，对财政赤字相对谨慎的罗斯福为了遏制政府开支和平衡预算，实施了削减联邦支出的紧缩性财政政策，并在 1940 年二战即将爆发的背景下实施了加税政策；1980 年，时任美国总统卡特签署了《1980 年原油暴利税法案》，法案提出对原油生产企业征收 50% 的暴利税，这一举措压制了油企的生产积极性，带来了企业有效税率的快速上行，并最终在能源板块利润的下滑与高融资成本环境重创了美股的企业盈利；此外，1961 年的 “肯尼迪大跌” 中，虽然没有发生实质性的加税措施，肯尼迪公开批评美国钢铁则引起市场形成对大企业压制措施出台的担忧，带来了 “加税” 或相关压制企业盈利预期的扰动。\n\n2.5. 外部冲击\n作为相对成熟的资本市场，美股在历史上通常具有相对较强的抵御风险能力，如 1998 年亚太金融危机、2011 年欧债危机等外部冲击仅会带来美股资产价格的暂时性回调，而并不会触发熊市。但历史上仍有 4 次外部冲击对投资者风险偏好的压制加速了市场的走跌，加深了美股在熊市中的跌幅。\n1956 年 7 月，埃及领导人加迈勒・阿卜杜勒・纳赛尔 (Gamal Abdel Nasser) 宣布将苏伊士运河国有化，在欧美国家中引发了极大的震荡，也影响了美股投资者情绪。\n1973 年 4 月，水门事件愈演愈烈，风波带来的不确定性同样对资本市场造成了冲击，10 月 6 日第四次中东战争的爆发导致外部冲击进一步加剧，战争影响下石油价格飙升，市场情绪进一步恶化。\n1982 年 6 月 6 日，第五次中东战争爆发，市场再度转向担忧输入型通胀的发生。同年 8 月 12 日，墨西哥财政部长正式告知国际货币基金组织（IMF）和美国政府其无力偿还 800 亿美元的外债，拉美债务危机由此拉开帷幕。外部冲击的接踵而至再次影响了美股，美股一改 1981 年三季度转好的趋势，再度陷入深跌。\n1990 年 8 月科威特战争引发了第三次石油危机，油价再度走高，投资者在经历了 70 年代前两轮石油危机后对此次危机格外担忧，风险溢价的走高同样对股价构成了压制。\n03、牛熊转换发生时美股市场的微观特征\n从历史上看，美股在牛熊转换发生时会有一些共同特征：1）资产配置层面：家庭超配股票资产、外资流入显著加速；2）估值层面：市盈率与市净率位居高位、托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上、巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 1.5 个标准差以上；3）交易层面：新股发行量显著攀升、市场杠杆率过高、低价股占比下滑、看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高；4）技术指标层面：标普 500 偏离长期趋势 50% 以上、MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升。\n3.1. 资产配置层面\n 1）家庭超配股权资产\n从资产配置上来看，家庭超配股权资产往往预示着风险的到来，这一配置比重超过 30% 时市场风险较大。一方面， 这一配置比重的提高映射了市场投资者参与度的快速提升，而这往往是牛市后期的预兆；另一方面，家庭超配风险资产往往透支了后续增量资金进入市场的潜力，一旦宏观流动性发生调整，市场很难在微观层面觅得增量资金的注入以缓释流动性紧缩的压力。就历史数据而言，1966 年的 “闪崩”、2000 年的 “互联网泡沫” 和 2007 年金融危机下的熊市中该指标均超过了 30%。当前美国投资者配置情绪日益高涨，家庭配置股权的比例已经高达 40.25%，这也超越了互联网泡沫时期 38.25% 的历史极值。\n\n2）外资流入显著加速\n同样，外资的快速涌入通常也是牛市后期的显著特征。本土偏好效应下外资往往倾向于投资本国的风险资产，直到牛市后期才会受美股风险资产持续上涨的吸引而加速流入，这一时期市场的风险也相对较大。该指标成功印证了 1987 年 “黑色星期五” 的闪崩、2000 年互联网泡沫的膨胀、2007 年金融危机蔓延下的暴跌这 3 轮牛熊转换的发生，同时监测到了 2010 年 4 月的市场回调。从领先滞后关系来看，随着对美股学习效应的加强，外资流向逐步由 2000 年初的滞后于市场发展到近年的领先于市场。“黑色星期五” 和 “互联网泡沫” 中，外资分别滞后于市场 3 个月和 8 个月，金融危机中，外资的流出则领先于标普 500 指数的调整约 2 个月，而 2010 年的美股回调，外资同样领先于似乎长约 2 个月。当前美股的外资流入再度加速，外资单月净流入的市值占比一度触及 0.7%，而 6 月底拐点出现，外资开始由美股向外转移。 \n\n3.2. 估值层面\n 1）市盈率与市净率位居高位\n市盈率是衡量资产价值的经典指标，反映了当前利润下回收对股票投资所需的年数，从历史数据来看，当该指标高于当时历史 95% 分位数时，市场存在较大风险。1929 年、1961 年、1966 年、2000 年，这一指标分别高达 32.56、21.25、22.66 和 44.19，均高于历史 95% 分位数，唯一没有出现熊市的 2018 年也出现了 19.87% 的回调。当下市盈率再次突破 95% 的历史分位数，第三次超过了大萧条前 32.56 的历史次峰，高达 37.86 倍。同时，标普 500 指数成分股的中位市盈率更是高达 25.02 倍，突破了互联网泡沫时期的历史峰值 22.76 倍，处于 1990 年以来的历史极值状态。\n另一方面，从市净率来看，标普 500 指数的市净率曾在互联网泡沫破灭前夕的 1999 年底达到过峰值 5.04 倍。当前这一指标再度接近历史极值位，高达 4.59 倍，创 2000 年 10 月以来新高，标普 500 指数成分股的中位市净率同样也处于 1990 年以来的历史极值位。\n\n2）标普 500 的托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上\n托宾 Q 作为实物资产的市场价值与其重置价值之间的比率，当整个市场的托宾 Q 高于平价过多时，投资者可能对未来的资产回报过于乐观。由于该指标受企业重资产占比的趋势性变动影响存在着长期的变化，我们依照相较前 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差构建风险位的警示指标以剔除趋势影响。从历史上看，2000 年的互联网泡沫与 2007 年金融危机期间该指标均有较好的印证，而 2015 年 4 月该指标警示风险后虽未发生系统性风险，但标普 500 指数随后也发生了 14.16% 的大幅回调。从与美股的领先滞后关系上，该指标具有一定的领先性，2000 年的互联网泡沫和 2007 年金融危机中托宾 Q 指标的拐点分别领先指数拐点 8 个月和 4 个月，2015 年的拐点同样领先标普 500 指数 3 个月。当前，托宾 Q 值再度于 2021 年 4 月开始超过历史均值 2 个标准差以上，并于 8 月初开始出现拐点。\n\n3）巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 2 个标准差\n巴菲特指数衡量了美股总市值与 GDP 的比率，巴菲特称之为在 “任何给定时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。随着直接融资占比的提高，该值也存在长期中枢上行的趋势。从剔除趋势后的趋势偏离度来看，当该指标趋势偏离度超过均值 2 个标准差以上时市场往往存在较大风险（注：该指数为美股总市值相对 GDP 的比值，其中 GDP 数据源自 BEA，美股总市值则参照 CMV 的算法，1970 年之前使用美联储统计的公司股权，1970 年之后使用 Wilshire 5000 指数的总市值，并对两不同口径的总市值作连续化调整）。\n历史上巴菲特指数在 1966 年和 1968 年均触及 1 个标准差以上的高位，在 2000 年互联网泡沫前则触及了均值以上的 2 个标准差，随后市场均发生了牛熊转换。此轮牛市中，市场分别于 2015 年与 2018 年触及均值以上 1 个标准差与 2 个标准差，随后市场分别发生了 14.16% 和 19.87% 的回调。当前巴菲特指数已经突破长期趋势 3 个标准差以上，处于历史极值状态。\n\n3.3. 交易层面\n 1）新股发行量明显攀升\nIPO 的发行量通常从两方面对股价形成影响。一方面，当市场投资者风险偏好普遍较高时，首次公开募股更容易出现超募现象，然而超募资金往往并不能被企业合理运用，从而加剧了超募个股的崩盘风险。IPO 发行热度极高时期容易形成系统性风险；另一方面，新股发行在微观流动性上也对市场形成虹吸效应，容易压制股价的上涨。从 2000 年以来的历史来看，互联网泡沫时期曾经出现过 IPO 单年发行 643 起。当前美股新股发行数量再度突破 600 起，截至 2021 年 9 月 12 日已发行 788 起，创 2000 年以来新高。\n\n2）保证金负债超过趋势值 2 个标准差以上\n保证金负债规模反映了市场交易的杠杆水平，从历史上看，当杠杆率过高时市场往往积蓄了较大的潜在风险，一旦指数开始发生下跌，则容易在杠杆资金止损的连锁反应下引发系统性风险。2000 年互联网泡沫时期和 2007 年全球金融危机爆发前美国股市的保证金负债规模均超过趋势值 2 个标准差以上。其中，2000 年互联网泡沫中，该指标与标普 500 同时出现拐点；2007 年金融危机中，该指标则领先指数拐点约 3 个月。2021 年 3 月开始，美国股市保证金负债再次大超趋势值 2 个标准差以上，并于 6 月底开始出现拐点。\n\n3）低价股占比下滑\n从历史上看，牛市后期与风险资产调整前夕往往都会出现一轮低价股（5 美元以下的 Penny Stock）行情，在场外边际投资者涌入的背景下，低价股往往能取得超额收益。整体而言，低价股占比低于 5% 时市场风险累计相对较大，这一指标在 2007 年熊市、2011 年欧债危机下 19.15% 的回调、2015 年 8 月 12.08% 的回调和 2018 年 19.87% 回调发生时均有印证。而截至 9 月 12 日，这一指标再度突破了 5% 的临界位，读数为 4.03%。\n\n4）美股看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高\n看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例衡量了美股市场上看多情绪相较看空情绪的强弱，往往在牛市末期投资者情绪推升至极致时容易上升至 200% 以上。从 1991 年以来的美股历史来看，2000 年非理性情绪推升的互联网泡沫下这一指标曾经突破过 200%，达到了 220% 的极值点。当前这一指标在 2020 年疫情背景下 QE 重启后直线上行，最新读数 178%，创 2001 年以来新高，反映了投资者风险偏好已经处于较为危险的位置。\n\n3.4. 技术层面\n 1）标普 500 指数偏离长期趋势 50% 以上\n资产价格有着围绕趋势值波动的内在趋势，因而当股指长期偏离趋势值时，往往会有 “均值回归” 的发生。从历史数据来看，当通胀调整后标普 500 指数偏离长期趋势超过 50% 时，市场均发生了大幅调整。1937 年的牛市拐点处，标普 500 趋势偏离度达 65.64%；1966 年和 1968 年的拐点处，该指数分别达到 62.21% 和 56.53%；2000 年的互联网泡沫破灭前，该指数更是达到了 79.98% 的历史峰值。当前标普 500 指数从 2020 年 11 月开始偏离长期趋势 50% 以上，截至 9 月 10 日，趋势偏离度高达 78.20%，接近 2000 年互联网泡沫破灭前夕的历史峰值。\n\n2） MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升\n从历史上看，当股市中的多数个股均位于其长期趋势线以上时，市场往往有着较大的回调风险。从标普 500 与 Russell3000 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比来看，1998 年 1 月、2010 年 3 月、2011 年 4 月标普 500 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比突破 90% 的同时 Russell3000 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比突破 80%，市场在这三轮中均发生了 15% 以上的回调，指标警示拐点分别领先于市场 6 个月、2 个月和 3 个月。而当前两指标均于 2021 年 1 月起再度超越了 90% 和 80% 的警示值，拐点则分别出现于 2021 年 5 月和 2021 年 3 月。\n\n04、当前美股环境与 2000 年更加类似\n 4.1. 本轮牛市的主要特征\n当前美股市场正处在 1928 年以来第 14 轮牛市之中。此轮牛市自 2009 年 3 月 10 日开始，至今已历经 12.5 年，为美股历史上最长的牛市，此前最长的牛市为 1990 年 10 月 12 日至 2000 年 3 月 24 日的互联网泡沫，跨度为 9.5 年。同时，此轮牛市也是历史上涨幅最大的牛市，12 年慢牛使美股累计上涨了 559.04%，同样超越了互联网泡沫期间 416.98% 的涨幅与大萧条后经济复苏 1932 年 7 月至 1937 年 3 月累计 323.36% 的涨幅。\n\n2008 年全球金融危机结束后，在量化宽松等强力刺激政策推动下，市场信心逐步恢复，美股市场于 2009 年 3 月重归牛途。此轮牛市大致呈现四个阶段的增长态势。\n 第一阶段：2009 年 3 月至 2011 年 7 月（599 个交易日，涨幅 98.81%）。这一期间经济触底反弹，流动性宽松、经济复苏和投资者信心恢复共同驱动这一阶段的市场上行；\n第二阶段：2012 年 11 月至 2015 年 8 月（691 个交易日，涨幅 55.35%）。欧债危机、摩根大通巨亏、财政悬崖等利空出尽后，美国经济重回温和增长的轨道。这一期间大盘温和上行，其中生物技术公司表现突出，驱动纳斯达克指数涨幅迅速超越标普 500 与道琼斯指数；\n第三阶段：2016 年 7 月至 2018 年 9 月（558 个交易日，涨幅 39.53%），在市场受 QE 退出、联储加息影响震荡调整一年后，特朗普就任后的减税与财政刺激政策构成了美股再度上行的主要驱动力，受减税与财政政策刺激，这一期间美国企业盈利持续增长，推动美股延续慢牛行情，而科技股的业绩及市场表现尤为突出；\n第四阶段：2019 年 1 月至今（683 个交易日，涨幅 89.64%）。在 2018 年四季度市场受国债收益率飙升快速回调后，2019 年全球经济衰退背景下宏观流动性的转向驱动了本轮行情，期间市场在 2020 年初疫情冲击回调后一路上攻至今。这一阶段，估值因素的作用显著提升，尤其是在 2020 年为应对疫情量化宽松政策重启后，宽松流动性驱动下估值的抬升带来了纳斯达克指数的快速上行，标普 500 与道琼斯指数也显著上行。\n\n纵观本轮美股牛市的行情，主要呈现如下几点特征：\n1）本轮美股大盘股牛市由盈利与估值双轮驱动，而以 Russell2000 衡量的小盘股则主要由盈利单方面驱动。从 2009 年以来，本轮标普 500 指数涨幅的 64.13% 由盈利驱动，9.45% 由无风险利率的下降推动，26.42% 由风险偏好驱动。盈利是本轮牛市中最为核心的驱动因素。而 2019-2020 年，流动性宽松引致的估值驱动作用显著提高，流动性宽松对 2019-2020 年市场涨幅贡献占比分别达 64.08% 和 225.14%。从以 Russell2000 指数衡量的小盘股来看，本轮牛市期间，盈利因素贡献了本轮涨幅的 80.22%，而估值因素则影响了 19.78%。\n2）科技互联网企业表现尤为突出。从标普 500 指数 GICS 分类的 11 个行业来看，信息技术企业在本轮牛市中表现尤为突出，以 1268.85% 的涨幅位居各行业首位，相较标普 500 指数的超额收益率高达 712.32%。以亚马逊、特斯拉等为代表的非必需消费行业同样表现突出，相较标普 500 指数取得了 466.83% 的超额收益。科技股行情在 FAAMG 上表现最为明显，以市值加权计，5 家科技互联网巨头企业在这一期间共计上涨了 3906%，远超三大股指的涨跌幅。从 EPS 变动来看，盈利在 FAAMG 行情中起到了最主要的作用。3）上市公司回购对行情的显著推动是本轮牛市又一大显著特征。本轮牛市中，上市公司回购起到了巨大的助推作用，从回购规模来看，本轮牛市初期 2009 年二季度上市公告单季回购规模仅为 325.80 亿美元，而到 2019 年一季度，单季回购规模扩大至 2042.52 亿美元，并持续多季度维持在单季 1500 亿美元以上的回购规模。回购对股票价格的推动作用是显著的，一方面，回购减少了公司股本，可以直接提高公司每股盈利与净资产收益率，并通过降低加权平均资本成本提升从业绩表现角度驱动股价上行；另一方面，回购可以通过优化股权结构提升公司治理水平；最后，股票回购提供的增量需求与释放的积极信号同样对股价有着显著的支撑。基于此，本轮牛市中回购对 EPS 与股价起到了显著的推动作用。\n\n4.2. 微观指标上，当前美股处在什么位置\n从政策、资金、市场特征、市场交易情绪及估值多个维度看，我们认为当前美股市场出现了一些历史上牛熊转换发生时的共性特征。这意味着，即便在下半年全球经济复苏共振之下美股主要指数仍有上攻可能，但市场的上行空间也已经相对有限，这个时点上对美股的投资需要趋于谨慎。\n从表征市场状态的各类微观指标来看：\n1）当下，资产配置指标中：当前美国投资者配置情绪日益高涨，家庭配置股票的比例已经高达 40.25%，这也超越了互联网泡沫时期 36.98% 的历史极值；外资方面， 6 月外资单月净流入的市值占比高达 0.7%，创近 10 年新高，此后拐点出现，此前 2007 年金融危机与 2010 年市场回调中该拐点均领先指数约 2 个月。\n2）反映估值合理性的指标中：市盈率再次突破 95% 的历史分位数，第三次超过了大萧条前 32.56 的历史次峰，高达 37.86 倍；标普 500 指数成分股市盈率中位值则达到了历史极值位；市净率也再度突破 4 倍，创 2000 年以来新高；托宾 Q 值和巴菲特指数分别突破历史均值和历史趋势值 2 个和 3 个标准差以上，均处于历史极值状态。\n3）交易层面的指标中：美股新股发行数量再度突破 600 起，截至 2021 年 8 月 20 日已发行 788 起创 2000 年以来新高；截至 2021 年 5 月底，美国股市保证金负债大超趋势值 2 个标准差以上后拐点于 6 月出现，2007 年金融危机中该指标领先指数拐点约 3 个月；Russell3000 指数中低价股占比再度达到了 5% 的临界位；看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例在 2020 年疫情背景下 QE 重启后直线上行，最新读数 178%，创 2001 年以来新高，反映了投资者风险偏好已经处于较为危险的位置。\n4）技术层面指标中：标普 500 指数从 2020 年 11 月开始偏离长期趋势 50% 以上，截至 9 月 10 日，趋势偏离度高达 78.20%；标普 500 和 Russell3000 指数成分股中 MA250 以上个股占比再度超越警示值后分别于 5 月和 3 月拐头向下，此前三次回调中这一技术指标约领先指数回调 4 个月。\n4.3. 宏观特征上，当前美股市场不同于 2018 年\n从微观指标上看，当前我们监测的部分表征市场状态的指标在 2000 年与 2018 年都曾出现过风险警示。但从宏观环境来看，当下美股面临着与 2018 年迥异的宏观环境。\n基本面上，2018 年特朗普的减税法案极大改善了企业的盈利环境，政策使得美国跨国公司利润回流，标普 500 盈利改善抵消了估值的大幅回落。而当下，拜登的美国就业计划则将对企业实施加税政策，这一政策的实施将对美国企业盈利造成拖累，这一情形更类似于 2000 年时的企业盈利承压局面。\n\n货币政策上，2018 年联储已经处在加息周期中，流动性预期内收紧后在次年全球经济放缓的背景下仍有施展余地，而当下一方面随着疫情的逐步控制，全球经济整体处于复苏区间，另一方面联储资产负债表规模已经很大，降低了宽松型货币政策进一步实施的空间。同时，疫情存在的恶化可能同样会冲击市场情绪，对风险偏好构成压制。\n\n4.4. 整体而言，当前美股市场更类似于 2000 年\n通过美股历史上牛熊转换的复盘，我们认为当前美股市场与 2000 年有诸多相似之处。\n第一，两轮牛市均历时十年之久，泡沫主要由成长股催生，牛市结构性特征显著。从整体来看，2000 年牛市和本轮牛市分别历时 9.5 年和 12.5 年，标普 500 指数涨幅分别达 416.98% 和 559.04%，无论从时长还是涨幅均为历时前两位；从行业上看，两轮股市结构性特征显著，2000 年牛市中，互联网相关的通信技术企业涨幅惊人，推动信息技术行业取得了显著的超额收益率，而本轮牛市中，美股市场的主要超额收益也为以 FAAMG 为代表的信息技术行业和可选消费行业所取得；从个股来看，两轮牛市均为少数个股推动的结构性牛市。\n\n第二，两轮牛市中盈利均为主要驱动因素。2000 年牛市中，盈利、无风险利率和风险偏好三大驱动因素占比分别为 69.79%、19.72% 和 10.49%；而本轮牛市中，三大驱动因素占比分别为 74.59%、9.14% 和 16.27%。两轮牛市中盈利均为核心驱动因素，流动性与风险偏好的上行也均起到了助推作用。\n\n第三，极度鸽派的货币政策助长了泡沫的膨胀。上任之初，艾伦・格林斯潘被普遍认为是一名坚定对抗通胀的鹰派官员（Inflation Fighter），然而随着时间的推移，艾伦・格林斯潘的立场则愈发鸽派，被路透社社评评价为 “披着鹰皮的鸽派（dove in hawk’s clothing）”。在 1996 年市场已经普遍意识到泡沫的存在后，艾伦・格林斯潘依然力排众议拒绝加息，并在 1998 年 “东南亚金融危机” 下资本泡沫即将破灭时再度降息。这一系列宽松的货币政策取向助长了 2000 年牛市中泡沫的膨胀。同样的情形也发生了在本轮牛市之中，本・伯南克、珍妮特・耶伦、杰里米・鲍威尔担任主席时期，美联储政策取向同样偏鸽，4 轮 QE 向市场注入了大量流动性，而美国股市的估值也在这一时期被显著推高。\n\n最后，两段时期的资产均在 2 年前即已出现估值泡沫化的问题，不过在宽松的流动性环境与宏观政策推动的企业盈利改善助力下泡沫得以进一步延续。\n从标普 500 偏离长期趋势值、席勒市盈率等诸多指标来看，1998 年美股的资产泡沫已经相对严重，同时，随着美元指数在东南亚危机中的快速下跌、上市公司盈利持续下滑、利率上行货币环境边际趋紧，标普 500 指数发生了阶段性回调。1998 年美股估值已经处于高位，标普 500 席勒市盈率于 1997 年底突破大萧条前的 32.56，创历史新高，艾伦・格林斯潘和沃伦・巴菲特也相继警示了美股泡沫风险。1997 年三季度是当时美股盈利的阶段性高点，随着 1998 年半年报的陆续披露，美国企业盈利连续三个季度边际回落，市场逐渐形成了对上市公司业绩持续回落的一致预期。另一方面，利率上行叠加东南亚金融危机冲击下美元指数的快速下跌，流动性环境的边际趋紧也对美股估值构成了冲击。多方面利空因素下，标普 500 指数在 1998 年 7 月 17 日至 1998 年 9 月 4 日间发生了 19.15% 的回调。然而，在彼时联储货币政策转向的流动性驱动下，美股的泡沫继续膨胀了 2 年。\n受 “东南亚金融危机” 蔓延的影响，美联储于 1998 年 9 月 29 日 - 11 月 17 日间连续三次下调联邦基金目标利率。在货币政策刺激下，美国企业盈利再度回升，叠加流动性环境的转向，美股再度上行，直至 2000 年 3 月 21 日联储主动加息才刺破了泡沫。\n\n本轮美股也发生了类似的情形。在本轮美股历史上最长的牛市中，标普 500 指数的席勒市盈率于 2018 年 1 月再度突破大萧条时期的极值，达到 33.31 倍。艾伦・格林斯潘也于 2018 年 1 月 31 日再度警示了美股的估值风险。货币政策上，2 月 5 日特朗普新提名的杰罗姆・鲍威尔并未如特朗普预期的 “偏鸽”，反而对美国经济发表了乐观展望，使得市场加息预期上升。美国股市也随着美国国债收益率的快速升高而从 2018 年 9 月 20 日开始快速下跌，截至 12 月 24 日累计下跌 19.87%。与 1998 年相类似的，本轮美股泡沫并未就此破灭，反而在 2019 年再度重启牛市。一方面，特朗普的 2017 年减税和就业法案改善了美国企业的盈利环境，美国企业利润折年数从 2018 年一季度的 1128 亿美元快速提升至 2019 年四季度的 1418 亿美元，复合年化增长率高达 12.13%。另一方面，随着全球经济增速放缓，美联储为首的各大央行货币政策也再度转向。2019 年 5 月，鲍威尔发表讲话，明确表示将在适当时机采取行动以提振疲软的经济，叠加疫情以来的天量财政货币政策，美股的泡沫继续膨胀了两年。\n\n当下，海外流动性已经出现边际收紧，美欧日 M2 增速已经出现见顶迹象。同时，拜登加税政策对美股企业盈利构成压制。拜登政府提出的美国制造税收计划及家庭计划同时对富人、资本利得及企业加税，美股盈利将受冲击。加税带来的冲击可能呈现结构性，科技股恐首当其冲。GILTI 税率翻倍与 G7 初步达成的 15% 全球共同最低税率协定可能使得以苹果、谷歌为首的海外营收占比大的跨国互联网及科技类公司的税负压力明显增大。\n\n中期来看，三方面因素均可能导致美股牛熊转换的发生：1）流动性方面：结合历史来看，货币政策的超预期收紧一般是牛熊转换发生的最主要因素，历史上 13 轮美股市场切换中有 7 轮均由货币政策收紧而刺破，以 M2 同比增速与名义 GDP 同比增速差额度量的超额流动性指标，变动约领先标普 500 指数市盈率 6 个月。今年 5 月以来，美国超额流动性由正转负。此外，当下随着美国就业修复已达 75%，联储 Taper 信号或与 9 月联储议息会议释放，此次的最终表态将决定缩表最终推进的进程。\n\n2）盈利方面：加税或加税预期引致的企业盈利回落预期在历史上也曾导致过 4 轮牛熊转换的发生。一方面，从经济形式来看，花旗经济意外指数约领先标普 500 相对国债的超额回报率约 2 个月，当前这一指数大幅走低，已回落至 - 58.8。另一方面，从标普 500 和 Russell3000 指数的未来 12 个月动态市盈率来看，虽然步入 2021 年后随着经济复苏下企业盈利预期的改善两者均有所回落，但仍分别位于 88% 和 92% 的历史高位，盈利修复已在当前股价中得到充分的体现，而未来加税则将进一步压制未来的盈利。中期来看，无论是疫情反复下经济的再度冲击还是拜登加税政策的加速推进，都将使依赖盈利作为核心增长动能的美股承受进一步压力，在中期出现资产价格戴维斯双杀的可能性有所趋升。\n\n3）风险偏好方面：根据美国个人投资者协会（American Association of Individual Investors，AAII）调查结果构建的牛熊情绪指标显示，自今年 7 月以来，市场情绪已经开始迅速调整，当前美股的熊市情绪已经逐渐占据主导。从历史上看，该指标从 30 以上高位快速回落后美股市场均出现了较大幅度的调整。当下，疫情超预期发酵、贸易摩擦等外部冲击同样可能进一步冲击美股的投资者情绪。\n05、中美经济金融同步性下降，外部冲击对 A 股影响减弱\n随着加入 WTO 后中国经济与全球同步性的提高，2007 年美股的暴跌对 A 股造成了剧烈冲击。次贷危机引发标普 500 指数于 2007 年 10 月 10 日开始下跌，随后的 10 月 16 日，A 股也在外部冲击下快速崩盘。此轮熊市间，标普 500 指数累计下跌 56.78，创 1942 年以来熊市的最大跌幅，而上证指数的跌幅更是超越美股，从 6214.04 点一路走低至 1664.93 点，累计跌幅高达 73.21%。\n\n当前中美经济金融同步性下降，外部冲击对 A 股影响减弱。区别于 2000 年与 2008 年时美国在全球经济中的主导地位，当前中国在全球经济中的占比持续上升，叠加中美经济与货币周期的不同步，美国市场的波动对于全球外溢效应将远小于 20 世纪初与 2008 年。\n一方面，以购买力平价计算的中国 GDP 全球占比现已超越美国，同时 A 股对外贸易依存度显著下降。2008 年次贷危机发生时，以进出口金额 / GDP 衡量的中国对外贸易依存度高达 60% 以上，而截至 2021 年一季度，仅为 34.30%。\n\n另一方面，当前中美金融周期不同步。区别于 2008 年我国与美联储同时启动宽松货币政策，当前我国货币政策和经济复苏领先于海外，与美国的货币政策不同步。\n\n在这一背景下，美股波动上升短期内冲击 A 股情绪，但长期而言，A 股走势将更多由内部因素主导。\n06、风险提示\n发达经济体疫情发展超预期，美联储超预期收紧，美国加税推进超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"RTYmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}