Have We Caught the Bottom? After-Hours Tech Is Saying “Maybe”

The recent tech correction has been brutal.

Memory stocks were crushed, high-beta AI names sold off, inflation revived higher-for-longer fears, and investors started questioning whether massive AI capex could actually generate equally massive returns.

Then something changed.

Semiconductors finally attracted buyers again, and some tech names spiked after hours following strong earnings.

I do not think that proves the bottom is in.

But it may be telling us which stocks the market wants to own if the correction is ending.

🟢 AFTER HOURS GAVE US A CLUE

The important development is not simply that tech bounced.

It is why certain stocks bounced while others did not.

Companies showing strong AI-related revenue and credible earnings are being rewarded. Companies disappointing on forward expectations are still being punished.

That tells me we are probably not returning to the phase where anything labelled “AI” automatically rises.

The market is becoming more selective:

AI spending → revenue growth → margins → cash flow.

If companies can demonstrate that chain, buyers are returning.

That is actually healthier for the next leg of the AI trade.

🔵 WAS THE RECENT CRASH THE BOTTOM?

Possibly for quality AI stocks. Probably not for everything.

Three things encourage me:

First, semiconductors finally attracted buyers after sustained selling.

Second, QQQ has recovered above $720 rather than immediately collapsing back toward last week's lows.

Third, strong earnings can still trigger aggressive buying.

But I am not calling an all-clear.

Rates remain elevated, inflation is uncomfortable, AI financing concerns have not disappeared, and major earnings could still produce another shakeout.

🚦 MY ROADMAP FOR THE REST OF UPTOBER

I think the highest-probability outcome is volatile recovery, not a straight-line rally.

🟡 50% BASE CASE: QQQ $700-$750

The recovery continues, but we get another shakeout along the way.

Strong earnings support AI leaders while rates repeatedly interrupt momentum.

🟢 30% BULL CASE: QQQ $750-$775

Big Tech earnings validate AI spending, semiconductors stabilise and yields stop climbing.

A clean break above $750 would make me much more confident that the correction has bottomed.

🔴 20% BEAR CASE: QQQ $675-$700

Earnings disappoint or yields surge again.

If $700 breaks decisively, I would watch $675-$695 as the next major accumulation zone.

🔵 WHAT I WANT TO BUY IF TECH DIPS AGAIN

I am not buying everything that crashed.

My preference remains:

🥇 MU: Preferred around $800-$840

🥈 NVDA: Preferred around $190-$200

🥉 META: Preferred around $640-$670

QQQ: Preferred around $675-$695

I would be much more careful with highly leveraged or unprofitable AI names. The market is increasingly distinguishing between AI beneficiaries and AI speculation.

🚦 THE NUMBER I AM WATCHING

For me, QQQ $750 is the key.

🟢 Above $750: correction increasingly looks finished.

🟡 $700-$750: bottom-building, buy selectively.

🟢 $675-$695: preferred accumulation zone.

🔴 Below $675: reassess whether something larger is being repriced.

MY UPTOBER CALL

I remain cautiously bullish for the rest of October.

My base-case month-end QQQ range is roughly $725-$755, with $760-$775 possible if Big Tech earnings deliver.

But I would not chase every after-hours spike.

The recent crash may have changed the character of the AI bull market.

The next leg should increasingly reward companies that can prove AI revenue, margins and cash generation, rather than companies selling only the promise of future growth.

So have we caught the bottom?

I think we may have caught the first part of it.

Now earnings need to confirm it.

And if Uptober has one final surprise left, I think there is a reasonable chance it is a rotation back into the strongest AI names rather than another indiscriminate tech crash.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

My Uptober call: QQQ $725-$755 at month-end. Do we see $750 or $700 first?

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