$SembInd MBeCW270329(9HPW.SI)$
While the Singapore stock market has been under pressure during October's correction, $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ has shown encouraging resilience.
Veteran trader Alex Low believes Sembcorp's biggest catalyst is a potential earnings recovery in 2H2026, driven by the completed Alinta Energy acquisition, improving Singapore power operations and a possible India IPO.
With management expecting 2H2026 earnings to exceed 1H2026, Alex wonders if this is the beginning of a stronger recovery
Read Alex's post which was originally posted on 15 October 2026:
*This post is paid for by Macquarie Warrants Singapore. Alex’s view does not represent that of Macquarie’s
Alex Low: a powerful rebound ahead for Sembcorp Industries?
1️⃣ Alinta Energy — Biggest Earnings Catalyst
Sembcorp's A$6.5 billion Alinta Energy acquisition could drive a strong earnings recovery. Phillip Securities expects Alinta's net profit contribution to jump from just S$5 million in 1H2026 to around S$100 million in 2H2026.
2️⃣ Singapore Power Business — Recovery Ahead
Sembcorp's new 600MW hydrogen-ready power plant is expected to start operations in 4Q2026. Rising electricity demand from AI data centres and high-tech manufacturing could further support earnings growth.
3️⃣ India IPO — Unlocking Hidden Value
The proposed IPO of Sembcorp Green Infra could raise approximately S$500 million, helping reduce debt and unlock value. DBS estimates a potential 5–10% uplift in group valuation.
4️⃣ Attractive Dividend — Get Paid While Waiting
Sembcorp increased its interim dividend by 22% to 11 cents despite weaker earnings. DBS forecasts 29 cents for FY2026, representing a potential 4.8% dividend yield based on S$6.08.
Analysts' Target Price
DBS — BUY, S$7.30
Phillip Securities — BUY, S$7.21
CGS International — ADD, S$7.15
My Technical View
Despite the broader market correction in October, Sembcorp has demonstrated relative strength, rebounding from S$5.78 to S$6.08 over the past three trading days.
On Tuesday, the share price closed above its 200EMA, while my General X system triggered a BUY signal.
The immediate resistance is at S$6.22. A convincing breakout above this level could signal a resumption of the uptrend.
The immediate support is at S$5.78.
My Next Technical Targets
S$6.57S$7.20
My Trade Action
I will keep an eye on overall market sentiment and monitor whether Sembcorp can continue to hold above its 200EMA, currently around S$6.08, over the next two trading days.If the stock continues to show resilience and breaks above S$6.22, I will initiate a BUY position.
⚠️ Risk Management
I will exit if the share price closes below S$5.78.
⚡ Macquarie Structured Warrant
Structured warrants allow traders to take a short-term view with smaller upfront capital. A call warrant generally rises in value when the underlying share price goes up.
One way to express a bullish short-term view on Sembcorp Industries is through the trending* Macquarie Call Warrant - $SembInd MBeCW270329(9HPW.SI)$
Compared with buying the shares directly, a structured warrant requires less upfront capital and provides leveraged exposure.
⚠️ Leverage works both ways. Structured warrants can magnify gains and losses, while their value is also affected by volatility and time to expiry.
*Trending warrants refer to warrants with the tightest spreads and highest liquidity for that underlying.
Disclaimer:
This commentary piece is paid for Macquarie Warrants Singapore. The views expressed by Alex Low do not represent the views of Macquarie Group, nor its affiliates. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Investment products including warrants are subject to significant investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Where past performance is referred to, it is not indicative of future performance. Examples quoted in this presentation are for illustration purposes only and do not represent any investment views or strategies. Advice should be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product before you commit to invest in it. Macquarie does not endorse any call to action by Alex Low inviting viewers or readers to join his community, WhatsApp groups or similar groups or channels.
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