ASML’s real story is not quarterly earnings, but whether chipmakers remain confident enough to commit billions to future capacity. Its customers are expanding production to meet AI demand, while its exclusive position in EUV lithography gives it a critical role in advanced chip manufacturing.

However, rising memory supply creates a potential contradiction: today’s capacity expansion could become tomorrow’s pricing pressure. If manufacturers overestimate future demand, equipment orders may eventually slow.

I would focus on net bookings, EUV demand and management’s 2027–2028 outlook rather than revenue alone. ASML can deliver excellent earnings and still disappoint if expectations are even higher.

My view: AI infrastructure demand remains compelling, but valuations leave little room for mistakes. The strongest signal would be sustained orders backed by credible long-term customer investment, not optimistic forecasts alone.

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