The indices: the Dow led all three higher, with healthcare and real estate doing the work

All three indices rose on Friday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ gained 0.83 per cent to 51,654.95; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.59 per cent to 7,811.54; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ added 0.64 per cent to 27,366.17. The 10-year Treasury yield nudged one basis point higher, from 5.23 per cent to 5.24 per cent.

The session's leaders were real estate, up 1.85 per cent, and healthcare, up 1.48 per cent — not the technology and compute names that have been carrying recent moves. Thursday's OpenAI revenue worries dissipated, but what filled the gap was not Nvidia; it was other industries altogether. Two paths follow. Should earnings season in the coming weeks produce harder evidence for AI demand, this rotation sits within a single week's structure. Should compute names keep underperforming the broader market, the reallocation inside equities has further to run. The thing to watch is whether technology can take back the lead.

Moderna: Phase 3 cancer vaccine data came in positive, and the Nasdaq-100 added it back on the same day

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ rose 14.21 per cent to US$225.00 on Friday, a new 52-week high, on two events landing together: the company published positive Phase 3 data for the personalised cancer vaccine it is co-developing with Merck, and Moderna was re-added to the Nasdaq-100 Index, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery, which forced passive index funds to buy. The company had been removed from the Nasdaq-100 at the end of 2024; Friday was its first day back. Full trial data is scheduled for 24 October.

Two paths follow. Should the complete data on 24 October confirm the direction of the Phase 3 readout, Friday's gain rests on genuine fundamental support. Should the full release show more complication, the rally may have priced in the most favourable interpretation already. The thing to watch is the complete trial data on 24 October.

Palantir: Goldman raised its target and Barclays initiated with a Buy, closing at an all-time high

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ closed at US$209.05 on Friday, up 5.17 per cent, above the prior all-time closing high of US$207.18 set on 3 November 2025. Two institutions acted on the same day: Goldman Sachs raised its target to US$230, and Barclays initiated coverage at a Buy with a target of US$265, citing competitive moat, expanding AI adoption and cash flow.

Palantir set an all-time high on the same day the chip names most associated with AI kept going lower. The contrast puts a live question to the market: is government and enterprise AI software being priced on a different set of assumptions from the compute infrastructure that commercial AI sits on? Two paths follow. Should Palantir's next results show commercial revenue making up a larger share, the expansion beyond government contracts starts to have data behind it. Should growth stay concentrated in government and defence, the valuation is pricing a story not yet in evidence. The thing to watch is the commercial contract share in the next results.

Nvidia and AMD: a second straight session in the red while the rest of the market recovered

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell 0.52 per cent to US$229.28 and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ fell 1.65 per cent to US$610.44 on Friday. Thursday's selling — triggered by the OpenAI revenue report — did not reverse when the broader market rebounded.

Thursday's trigger was OpenAI's annualised revenue figure, but Friday's continued weakness shows that the repricing did not unwind when the immediate sentiment passed. Investors are still working through a reassessment of the demand assumption along the AI chain. AMD's fall was larger than Nvidia's, continuing the pattern from Thursday. Two paths follow. Should sell-side firms update AI chain demand estimates upward over the next few weeks, these two sessions are a recalibration after expectations had moved ahead of evidence. Should major buyers' purchasing plans be revised lower, the adjustment needed goes beyond sentiment. The thing to watch is whether sell-side order tracking for the AI chain is revised.

Delta: its first earnings miss in two years, with fuel costs up about 62 per cent

$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ reported third-quarter results on Friday: earnings per share of US$1.72, the first time in two years the airline has come in below consensus. Fuel costs rose about 62 per cent from a year earlier, adding roughly US$1.6 billion. The company cut its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance sharply, from the US$6.50 to US$7.50 range it had reaffirmed as recently as July, to a new range of US$5.10 to US$5.60. Shares fell close to 5 per cent at the open, hit a session low of US$79.16, and recovered to close at US$82.17, down 1.72 per cent.

Delta's result is the first shot of the Q3 earnings season, and it was a miss. Part of Friday's broad rally rested on the expectation that Q3 earnings would be solid; Delta was the first test of that, and it did not pass. Two paths follow. Should large companies' results in the next few weeks still produce a normal share of beats, Delta's miss is an airline-specific fuel-cost event. Should fuel and input costs show up across multiple industries, the overall quality of this earnings season has to be repriced. The thing to watch is the share of beats across major Q3 results in the next few weeks.

This is personal analysis and not investment advice.

💬 【Talking Point】

$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ opened Q3 earnings season on Friday with its first miss in two years, citing fuel costs up 62 per cent. Do you expect fuel and input costs to be a theme across the season, or is this specific to airlines?

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