For my view: No — Tuesday’s Senate setback is not the whole story.
The failed CLARITY Act vote is still the main short-term problem because it creates regulatory uncertainty for Circle. The Senate vote was 49–50, below the 60 votes needed.
But CRCL has other important factors:
Arc launched successfully with 100+ institutional/ecosystem builders.
Higher interest rates can support Circle’s reserve income.
USDC continues to grow, with $73.3B in circulation at Q2-end.
However, the market still needs to see real revenue and profit from Arc.
Bottom line: CRCL is facing a mix of regulatory risk + valuation risk + execution risk. Arc is promising, but it needs to prove it can become a profitable business.
Nonfarm Payrolls Add Only 29K — Is the Rate-Hike Cycle Over?
September payrolls grew 29,000 vs 89,000 expected, prior 133,000; unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. October hike odds fell from above 60% a week ago to under 25%. Stocks rose: Nasdaq hit a record 27,353.68, closing +1.19% at 27,190.86; QQQ +1.02% to $749.58; S&P 500 +0.73% to 7,722.72; Dow +0.49% to 51,176.96. Bonds didn't follow: the 10-year added 4bp to 5.28%, highest since 2002; the UK 30-year gilt hit 6%. Hike risk is off the table, yet the long end rose anyway. How much does that worry you?
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