[Events] Fed Watch: Hike or Hold? What’s Your Call?

TigerEvents
09-14
Reward Tiger-CoinsReward 1000 Tiger-coins

A few months ago, markets were still debating when the Fed might start cutting rates. Now the conversation has flipped.

After another hot inflation print and a fresh surge in oil prices, investors are asking a very different question: Could the Fed hike again?

  • U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, up sharply from 0.1% in July, while headline inflation climbed 3.4% from a year earlier.

  • Core CPI also came in hotter than expected, rising 0.3% month-on-month, its biggest increase in four months.

  • Energy is adding another layer of pressure. Brent crude has moved back above US$100 a barrel, raising concerns that higher fuel costs could eventually feed through into transport, goods and services.

That has pushed Wall Street expectations in a more hawkish direction.Markets are now heavily pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike, while major banks including Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have also shifted toward a more hawkish outlook.

But the Fed still faces a difficult choice.

  • Hike rates, and it risks putting more pressure on growth, housing and high-valuation tech stocks.

  • Hold steady, and inflation could prove even harder to bring back under control.

So what’s your call?

  • A Hike 25bp-Inflation is still too hot to ignore.

  • B Hold-The Fed should wait for more data.

  • C Hike 50bp-Go harder now before inflation gets worse.

Bonus question: If the Fed hikes, what gets hit hardest?

  • 🤖 AI & tech stocks

  • 🏠 Housing

  • ₿ Bitcoin

  • 🥇 Gold

Drop your pick in the comments 👇 for a chance to win some Tiger Coins [Allin][Allin] Rewards are limited, so get in early![USD][USD]. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

Two Rounds of Treasury Buybacks, and Long-End Yields Still Hit a New High?
The Treasury bought 20- to 30-year debt again Wednesday, capped at $6B — second round in two weeks; the first filled only $5.2B. The bid came, yields didn't fall: the 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15bp and the highest since 2007, as was the 30-year. October Fed hike odds hit 69.7%. Stocks fell: Nasdaq -1.13% to 26,936.04, erasing Tuesday's record; QQQ -0.84% to $741.21; S&P 500 -0.75% to 7,706.03; Dow -0.68% to 51,511.59. Bulls say firm data, not weak demand, is lifting yields; bears say two buybacks and a new high prove the bid can't absorb supply. At what yield do you redo the math on stocks?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Reward expired
Due to insufficient number of valid participants, 1000Tiger coins have been refunded to the initiator
Deadline to 09/24 17:26
Reward-post

Comments

  • Shyon
    09-14
    Shyon
    For me, I would choose A — Hike 25bp. The latest inflation data is too sticky to ignore, especially with core CPI accelerating and oil prices back above US$100. I think the Fed would rather make a small adjustment now than risk allowing inflation expectations to become harder to control later.

    I would not expect a 50bp hike at this stage because that could create unnecessary pressure on economic growth and financial markets. A 25bp hike would be a more measured approach, while keeping the door open for the Fed to pause if inflation starts cooling again.

    If the Fed hikes, my pick for the biggest short-term impact is 🤖 AI & tech stocks. Higher rates usually put pressure on high-valuation growth stocks because future earnings become less attractive when discounted at higher rates. I remain bullish on AI and the long-term trend, but I would rather see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate gradually than chase prices higher.

    @TigerClub @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents

  • 吉3186
    09-21
    吉3186
    My view: B. Hold — wait for more data
    I think a 25bp hike is possible, but holding first could give the Fed more time to see whether inflation and oil prices stay high.
    Inflation is still too high.
    Oil above $100 could push inflation higher.
    But hiking too quickly could hurt economic growth and jobs.
    50bp would be too aggressive in my view.
    If the Fed hikes, what gets hit hardest?
    AI & high-growth tech stocks
    Why? Higher rates make future profits worth less today. Expensive growth stocks usually feel this pressure more quickly.
    Simple rule:
    Rates up→ Treasury yields up → Growth/AI stocks down.
    Bottom line: Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, oil and inflation closely. These three could decide the next big market move.
  • GordonLee66
    09-15
    GordonLee66
    My pick is B - Fed will hold till more data is available. But once it holds, it’s creditablity will take a big hit and US$ will tumble, stocks and precious metals will zoom up like crazy.
  • moliya
    09-14
    moliya
    fed will not raise to 50bp where as they will increase to25bp which will increase inflation
    this inflation will affect gold, housing and tech n AI stocks
    I wait for Kevin wasj to announce
  • 苏36
    09-14
    苏36
    My pick: A — Hike 25bp.

    I’d rather see the Fed make a small move now than wait until inflation becomes harder to control. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, while core CPI accelerated to 0.3%, and energy prices are adding another layer of risk.

    But I don’t think 50bp makes sense. Much of the renewed inflation pressure is coming from energy, so an aggressive hike could damage growth without solving the underlying supply shock.

    If the Fed hikes, AI & high-valuation tech stocks probably feel the biggest immediate pressure. Higher yields raise the discount rate, making expensive future-growth stories harder to justify.

    That said, strong AI cash flows could make mega-cap tech more resilient than speculative growth stocks.

    25bp hike, not 50bp — and watch the Fed’s next move closely.

    @TigerEvents [你懂的]

  • 北极篂
    09-15
    北极篂
    如果美联储加息，受打击最大的绝对是 🤖人工智能与高估值科技股。
    因为科技股的估值高度依赖极长期限的现金流折现（DCF），对无风险利率（美债收益率）敏感度极高，加息会瞬间压缩其市盈率（PE）倍数；相比之下，住房市场此前已有锁死效应垫底，黄金与比特币已部分计入避险情绪，唯独高企的AI估值泡沫最脆弱。
Leave a comment
21
5