atehpengaday
09-10

While Kioxia ruling out deeper SK Hynix ties and resisting further NAND price hikes introduces a temporary pricing headwind, it does not mean the structural memory supercycle is over. SK Hynix and Samsung’s finished inventories dropping below 10 days—coupled with HBM4 production cannibalizing standard DRAM wafer capacity—highlights unprecedented physical supply constraints across AI datacenters. Kioxia’s strategy to protect long-term market share may cap short-term spot price spikes in NAND, but severe structural tightness in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise DRAM continues to underpin SK Hynix's structural earnings power.

CXMT DRAM Breakthrough Hammers Memory and Optical Stocks — Panic or Repricing?
AI hardware sold off hard Monday: SanDisk -5.97%, Lumentum -9.78%, Micron -3.88%, SK Hynix -4.02%. Trigger: CXMT's president announced a 4F² DRAM architecture breakthrough at a weekend conference, targeting server memory by end-2026 — reviving fears of Chinese competition on pricing. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan warned capital, not chips, is now AI's primary bottleneck. Bulls say CXMT still faces major yield hurdles before any volume ramp; bears say once markets price in Chinese DRAM competition, fundamentals can't stop the re-rating. Has this changed your conviction in memory stocks?
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Comments

  • LisaEffie
    09-10
    LisaEffie
    HBM and enterprise DRAM tightness still looks structural to me. HBM4 starts are eating standard DRAM wafer slots, so even flat AI demand keeps baseline supply tighter than people think
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