atehpengaday
09-03 06:36

While the sharp surge in 10-year Treasury yields past 4.8% and spiking rate-hike odds (~70%) reflect real market anxiety over stickier inflation and elevated energy costs, writing off tech and AI capex completely would be premature. Market caps and valuation multiples for long-duration tech will certainly compress under higher discount rates in the short term, but cash-generative mega-caps (like Microsoft and Nvidia) fund the bulk of their massive AI infrastructure out of robust operating cash flows rather than expensive debt markets. While rotating into high-cash-flow defensive names or holding energy as a tactical hedge is a sound defensive strategy ahead of ADP and payroll data, the structural thesis and multi-year capex commitments for AI infrastructure remain heavily intact beyond short-term Fed policy swings.

A Dove Breaks Fed Hawk Chorus — Can S&P's Best Day in a Month Survive Tonight's Jobs Report?
Waller broke weeks of hawkish pressure: he backs holding rates while progress toward 2% continues. Hike odds this month fell 70% to 50%, the 10-year 4.81% to 4.74%. S&P +1.06%, Dow +614 points, best day in a month: Microsoft +2.68%, Meta +3.01%. Ease the pressure and the priciest assets bounce first. But this dove is on loan: the range is still 3.50–3.75%, three members backed a hike in July, and September 16 is live. Tonight's payrolls decide: consensus +56,000 after July's −23,000, and hourly earnings at +3.0% is what matters. Call peak rates before the data, or trust only the hold?
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Comments

  • feelond
    09-03 07:22
    feelond
    DCF sensitivity is the real pain here. For AI names, small changes in terminal assumptions get brutal fast even before the actual capex thesis breaks.
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