苏36
08-24
Own the Toll Collector, Not the Toll Payer

I’d rather own Nvidia than the companies paying the higher AI bill—but only if its pricing power proves sustainable. Rising memory costs are turning AI infrastructure into a margin test: Nvidia can pass costs downstream, while server builders and cloud providers face heavier capex.

The bigger question is whether AI demand remains strong enough to absorb those increases. If customers keep spending aggressively, Nvidia’s pricing power strengthens. If budgets tighten, higher server costs could eventually slow deployments.

So for me, Nvidia remains the “toll collector,” but valuation matters. I’d rather buy on meaningful pullbacks than chase strength ahead of earnings.

@Marktomarket [微笑]

Alibaba Slips 0.73% as Burry Bears Down — CEO Buys ~$4.98M: Who's Wrong?
Alibaba −0.73% in the U.S. Monday, while 09988 rose 0.71% in Hong Kong. The bear case, built on Burry's framework, is that the AI boom leaves Alibaba worse off as cloud and AI capex compresses margins. The bull case got a signal rather than an argument: the CEO bought about $4.98m of stock — real money, though against last week's HK$80bn placement it is a gesture, not a swing factor. One question underneath: is AI spend a margin drag or the entry ticket to cloud reacceleration? Follow the insider buy, or wait for this week's China ADR earnings?
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Comments

  • MortimerDodd
    08-24
    MortimerDodd
    Pullback sounds nice on paper, but pre-earnings NVDA usually doesn't wait lol. Memory inflation hurts buyers more than the toll collector here
  • HiTALK
    08-24
    HiTALK
    AMD and custom silicon are the part I care about more here. If that mix keeps improving, Nvidia's toll booth premium gets tested even with solid AI demand
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