$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ Going through the numbers again for anyone new to this. AAOI has said at least 3 times now that they expect to have capacity for $471M/month in revenue for transceivers only by mid 2027. They have also said they believe they will still be capacity constrained, and will sell every part they can make. That suggests they will continue to increase capacity through the year. If that happens linearly, the AVERAGE monthly revenue would be $471M. That makes 2027 revenue at least $5.6B per year, not counting CATV which could be $300M. So we're looking at about $5.9B in revenue for 2027. The company has also said they can hit 16% net margins at volume, or $944M in profit. If we assume they're done raising money by selling stock, that's $10 per share. Apply your preferred multiple to that, which I believe is easily 50, and you get a $500 stock. Easy to see.

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