Wah bro, National Day just finish, everyone all go JB already.
Shop so quiet, prata also almost no one order.
Sit here bored, let me tell you one crazy story.Got one young guy name Leopold Aschenbrenner.
Only 25 years old. His hedge fund first half 2026 report return 439%.
From announce that number until whole portfolio package sell to other people, only 6 days. 6 days before he still write letter to investor say “tech stock drop is best time to buy”.
6 days later whole thing liquidated.
Next day the stocks he hold average go up 20%. Peak time his fund manage 45 billion USD.
He really see the correct AI direction for past 2 years. 2 years ago in podcast he say:
“Not blowing up is task number one and two.”
Don’t blow up is first and second priority. Then he use 4 times leverage and blow himself up. This guy born Germany 2001, parents both doctor.
15 years old already enter Columbia University America, formal student.
19 years old graduate top of class, economics and maths. After that go FTX Future Fund first, then go OpenAI join Super Alignment team under Ilya Sutskever.
Sit inside the engine room, see all the secret compute plan, power need, next model size. He write internal memo say OpenAI safety not enough, later get fired.
Not long Ilya also leave. His fiancée is Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei chief of staff.
Anthropic is OpenAI biggest rival.
Later his fund most valuable private holding is Anthropic shares. 2024 he write 165-page essay “Situational Awareness”.
Say AI progress super fast, real bottleneck not chip, is electricity.
2027 AI can replace top researcher.
This essay explode in AI and investment circle. End 2024 he raise 250 million, open fund call Situational Awareness.
Jane Street early supporter. First year return crazy good, money flood in.
2026 Q1 long position already 3.84 billion, with leverage and option actual exposure over 20 billion. He don’t buy NVIDIA Microsoft like everyone.
He buy whole AI supply chain:
Biggest holding Bloom Energy (power), then Bitcoin mining companies like Core Scientific (got space + power already), CoreWeave (GPU cloud), Intel call option (cheap lottery), and short some old IT company like Infosys. Biggest 6 positions take 85% of long.
Plus 4x leverage. He also buy 8.5 billion put option on chip stocks to hedge, but long side leverage too high, hedge cannot save. July 2026 crash start from credit market.
People scare AI company borrow too much cannot pay back.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ list raise 26.5 billion, suck market liquidity.
Semiconductor drop hard.
His stocks fall one by one – $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ -54%, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ -57%, $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ -36%. Long lose, short also lose, double kill. 4x leverage means portfolio drop 25% already zero.
SNDK drop 57% × 4 = lose 228%.
Pure maths kill him. 24 July he still write letter say good buying opportunity, report 439%.
25 July Financial Times report the letter, market smell blood, people sell his stocks more.
29 July three big broker (Goldman, JPMorgan, Bank of America) all margin call. Cannot sell slowly – position too big.
Cannot let broker force sell – will crash whole sector.
Only one way: find big buyer take discount package sell. Call everyone, Millennium no, Jane Street (old friend) also no.
Finally Citadel take.
Discount at least 10%.
Citadel buy then immediately hedge, lock the profit, slowly sell.
Next day stocks rebound 20%+, they make more. Fund from 45 billion drop to about 10 billion. July alone -67%.
He still got Anthropic private shares about 5 billion, maybe later can come back if list.
Same weekend he get married, phone still ring margin call. Same story keep happen:
1960s Gerald Tsai, 1998 LTCM, 2021 Archegos – all see correct direction, but concentrate + high leverage, market just give one big swing already dead. Charlie Munger say three things make smart people bankrupt: alcohol, women, leverage.
This guy no drink, just marry, but use 4x leverage. He draw the best map in the world, but drive car with no brake.
Judgment correct, survival different.
See future not mean can walk to future. Bro, if your own trading or business borrow too much, better check how many % drop then margin call already.
If less than 30%, careful. National Day just pass, shop quiet, so I talk long.
You want prata or teh tarik? Still got, come.
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