The Hormuz negotiations will likely keep oil prices volatile in the short term, but I still believe the Fed and economic data will have a bigger influence on the overall market. Unless we see a genuine disruption to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, I think investors will gradually shift their focus back to inflation, employment, and interest rate expectations.

Oil is important because it affects inflation, but it's only one piece of the puzzle. If upcoming jobs data continues to soften and inflation remains under control, the market will likely keep pricing in Fed rate cuts, which would support equities, bonds, and even gold.

For me, the key indicators are payrolls, CPI, Treasury yields, and whether oil prices stay elevated for an extended period. Geopolitical headlines may drive daily swings, but macro fundamentals will probably determine the market's next major move. 

@WallStreet_Tiger  [正经]