Mrzorro
08-06

Earnings Option: Sandisk Bet History


$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   will post its FY26Q4 results after the market closes on Wednesday, August 5.

This test reviews 5 complete Sandisk earnings events using $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ contracts. It records only whether a near-expiry ATM Call, Put, or Straddle produced a gross WIN or LOSS.


The Three Bets

– Long Call is the upside bet. 

– Long Put is the downside bet. 

– Long Straddle buys both and needs a large move in either direction to cover two option premiums.


What the History Says

Sandisk returned to public trading in February 2025, so only five post-separation earnings events are available. The sample is especially small.

Long Call won 2 of 5 events. Long Put won 2 of 5, and Long Straddle won 1 of 5.

Call and Put recorded the highest gross win count, but the sample does not establish a repeatable edge.

At least one outcome was close to break-even in the gross data. Its WIN or LOSS classification may differ after executable spreads and trading costs.


How to Read the Chart

Green means gross WIN and red means gross LOSS. The chart excludes amounts, percentages, premiums, and stock moves.


Practical Caveat

For these after-market reports, entry is the announcement-day session and exit is the next trading session.

The expected earnings move can already be embedded in option premiums. Alpaca daily-bar opens represent the first reported regular-session trade for each contract, not a guaranteed 9:30 fill or executable quote. The two legs may open at different times.

Spreads, slippage, commissions, fees, and opening execution risk are excluded. Small gross gains may become losses after costs.


Summary

In this sample, Call and Put ranked first by gross win count. This historical backtest does not forecast the next earnings reaction and is not investment advice. An option buyer can lose the full premium paid.


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SanDisk's $14B Buyback Fails to Impress — Why Two Straight Days of Losses After Strong Earnings?
Memory's post-earnings selloff ran a second session Thursday. SanDisk −6.81%, its $14 billion buyback no help; Western Digital −13.03% even with revenue up 44% year-over-year; SK Hynix −4.97%; the 2x SanDisk product SNXX −13.53%. The logic is plain: results are the rearview mirror, guidance sets the price, and SanDisk's cautious next quarter erased the beat. Analysts also point to hidden leverage still unwinding. Buybacks and quadrupled profit couldn't lift the stock — so who prices memory now?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • fizzik
    08-06
    fizzik
    I just ran a similar SNDK earnings backtest too, and five events is way too thin to call any edge. Did IV crush wipe out the straddle more than direction did?
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