SpaceX is a lottery ticket kind of stock. It defies almost every principle of sound fundamental investing.

First, the valuation is always a stretch. Same story with Tesla, priced wildly above its competitors. I accept that a market leader deserves a premium, but the gap suggests something more than that. There is an Elon Musk premium embedded in the share price, and it is substantial.

Second, much of what you are buying sits in the future. Colonising Mars or the Moon, data centres in space, humanoid robots. None of it is commercialised. Yet it is priced today as though it already is. That is not valuation. That is buying into a vision.

So if you want to invest in Musk’s companies, you cannot use the conventional lens. Which is exactly why these stocks are so divisive. On one side, the naysayers listing every fundamental principle being violated. On the other, loyal fans who saw the vision early and believe in it.

Most investors sit somewhere on that spectrum. I sit in between, probably a little closer to the fundamentalist end.

But I also think a small position in SpaceX can make sense. If it fails, it costs the portfolio very little. If it delivers 10x or 100x, even a small position grows into something meaningful and actually moves the needle. That is the lottery ticket logic, and it only works if the ticket stays small.

What I want to see first is the selling stop, then the price form a horizontal base and hold it for a while. After that, I want to see genuine upward movement off that base. That is the point where betting on Musk reclaiming his trillionaire status starts to look like a calculated bet rather than a hopeful one.