Right now, the hawks have the stronger evidence. If inflation remains sticky and the labour market stays resilient, it is difficult for the Fed to justify easing, which explains why short-term yields and rate expectations have repriced so aggressively.

That said, markets have a habit of extrapolating current conditions too far. Citi's case is not impossible. If falling oil prices feed through to inflation, jobless claims continue rising, and growth slows meaningfully, the Fed could shift from inflation concerns to growth concerns surprisingly quickly.

My base case would be "higher for longer" rather than multiple rapid hikes or imminent cuts. The economy would need clearer signs of deterioration before October rate cuts become likely.

For investors, the bigger risk may not be whether the next move is up or down, but whether policy uncertainty keeps valuations under pressure. The Fed can remain restrictive even without actually raising rates.