Weekly:Fed Holds, Hormuz Reopens: Tech Rallies, Oil Crashes, BoJ Hits 31-Year High

TigerObserver
12:51

Last Week's Recap

1. Weekly Market Digest: Peace Deal Rally, Warsh's Hawkish Hold, PPI Shocks, Oil Crashes

  • Peace deal — U.S.-Iran peace agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz; NASDAQ +2.43%, S&P 500 +0.93%. Tech/semis surged double-digits; SpaceX ($SPCX) jumped ~20% in its second trading day.

  • Fed debut — Warsh's first FOMC held rates steady but left the door open for late-2026 hikes; press conference spooked markets Wednesday (S&P -1.4%, NASDAQ -1.5%), with a partial Thursday rebound ahead of the holiday weekend.

  • PPI shock — Wholesale prices rose 1.1% MoM, crushing the 0.7% consensus and reigniting inflation fears.

  • Bond swings — 10-year Treasury yield traded around 4.48% early week before settling near 4.46%; the 2-year climbed 15bp as markets repriced Fed expectations post-meeting.

  • Oil crash — WTI tumbled to ~$75 (lowest since early March), down nearly 40% from conflict peaks over six straight losing days. The IEA warned of a looming supply glut, projecting an 8M bpd supply increase by 2027 against just 2M bpd demand growth, with 100+ stranded tankers set for release.

  • Gold tug-of-war — Geopolitical relief weighed on gold, but lower oil prices eased inflation fears and provided support; remains well below its January $5,589 record high.

  • Bitcoin flat — BTC ended the week roughly unchanged, briefly dipping below $62,300; still recovering from its sub-$60,000 break two weeks ago.

  • Japan surges — Nikkei 225 +7.62%, TOPIX +4.80% on AI capex. BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.0% (highest since 1995) and reduced JGB purchases; yen weakened to ~160.8.


2. US Market – SPX gains 0.93% as semiconductor rebound offsets healthcare and energy drag

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 0.93% and closed at 7,500.58, as a powerful rebound in semiconductor names offset sharp declines in healthcare and energy majors. The index reclaimed the 7,500 level as AI infrastructure demand revived chip-sector sentiment.

Industry leaders: Hydrogen Energy (+30.61%), NVIDIA Portfolio (+25.32%), Heavy Electrical Equipment (+23.72%).

10 Popular Stocks:

  • $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ +28.41% — The chip-design IP leader skyrocketed on AI edge-computing demand and licensing momentum across smartphone and data-center markets.

  • $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ +9.75% — The world's largest foundry rallied on resilient front-end capex and advanced-node demand from AI chip customers.

  • $Micron Technology(MU)$ +13.87% — The memory-chip maker surged on HBM supply-demand tightness and recovering AI server DRAM pricing.

  • $Intel(INTC)$ +14.56% — The chipmaker bounced back on restructuring progress and foundry strategy clarity, with bargain hunters stepping in at depressed valuations.

  • $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ +11.67% — The semiconductor equipment giant advanced on AI-driven wafer fabrication demand and expanding memory capex.

  • $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ +10.02% — The chip designer rallied on AI accelerator market-share optimism and data-center revenue growth.

  • $Microsoft(MSFT)$ -2.8% — The cloud giant slipped on Azure growth deceleration concerns and profit-taking after recent strength.

  • $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ -5.37% — The pharma heavyweight retreated on GLP-1 pricing pressure fears and manufacturing scale-up execution risks.

  • $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ -6% — The supermajor tumbled alongside Brent crude weakness and OPEC+ supply increase speculation.

  • $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)$ -4.17% — The healthcare bellwether declined on pharmaceutical pipeline concerns and rotation out of defensive names.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

3. Hong Kong Market – HSI tumbles 3.21% as energy collapse and tech weakness overwhelm HSBC rally

$HSI(HSI)$: The Hang Seng Index plunged 3.21% and closed at 23,924.81, as a brutal selloff in energy majors and tech giants overwhelmed strength in HSBC and Zijin Mining. The index broke below the 24,000 support level.

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ declined 2.14% and closed at 4,604.35.

Industry leaders: Systems Software (+58.29%), Electronic Components (+24.48%), Fast Food Chainstore (+20.52%).

9 Popular Stocks:

Performance is subjected to market volatility

4. Singapore Market – STI gains 3.32% as banks and industrials power the index

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ surged 3.32% and closed at 5,192.7, briefly touching an all-time high of 5,226.03 during the week.

Sectors: Real Estate Development (+23.30%), IT Consulting & Other Services (+15.56%), Software & IT Services (+14.77%).

9 Popular Stocks:

  • $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ +6.9% — Advanced on strong order-book momentum and defense-spending tailwinds.

  • $SGX(S68.SI)$ +6.02% — Surged on rising volumes. 1HFY2026 net revenue S$695.4M (+7.6% YoY), Equities-Cash up 16.2%.

  • $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ +4.81% — Advanced on resilient regional credit and record non-interest income. Closed at SGD 24.63.

  • $DBS(D05.SI)$ +4.3% — Touched 52-week high of SGD 66.25; market cap SGD 187.17B. Q1 net profit S$2.93B, 17.0% ROE. UOB Kay Hian Buy at SGD 66.75.

  • $Wilmar Intl(F34.SI)$ +4.48% — Advanced on resilient food-products demand; P/E 13.36, 4.19% yield.

  • $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ +3.1% — Gained on energy transition tailwinds.

  • $ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ +2.46% — 1QFY2026 earnings up >15% YoY; YTD return 28.37%, outperforming STI's 9.46%.

  • $HongkongLand USD(H78.SI)$ -3.68% — Declined on Hong Kong office leasing concerns; P/B 0.51, 3.41% yield.

  • $Top Glove(BVA.SI)$ -9.8% — Collapsed on weak demand and margin compression; trades at SGD 0.23, market cap SGD 1.84B.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

5. Australian Market – XJO edges up 0.28% as healthcare and banks offset resource collapse

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ gained 0.28% to 8,828.7, as strength in healthcare, banking, and aviation offset a brutal selloff in energy and miners.

Sectors: Semiconductors (+28.75%), Semiconductor Equipment (+22.95%), Interactive Home Entertainment (+21.35%).

9 Popular Stocks:

Performance is subjected to market volatility

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors

  • New Home Sales – Wednesday

  • Energy Information Administration Oil Situation Report – Wednesday

  • Durable Goods Orders – Thursday

  • Gross Domestic Product – Weekly

  • Personal Income and Spending – Thursday

  • Unemployment Claims – Thursday

2. Earnings Focus: 22 June-26 June

$Carnival(CCL)$ - Tuesday

$FedEx(FDX)$ - Tuesday

$Micron Technology(MU)$ - Wednesday

$Paychex(PAYX)$ Wednesday

$Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ - Wednesday

$Darden Restaurants(DRI)$ - Thursday

Fed Chair Warsh’s Debut: What Happens When Fed’s “Script” Changes?
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made his first FOMC appearance this week, and his hawkish tone immediately poured cold water on markets, triggering a sharp repricing across global assets. The policy rate itself did not change. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, with a unanimous 12-0 vote. Has trading become harder in the second half of the year? Was this just a false alarm, or the beginning of a more volatile regime? Do you think rate-hike expectations will be reversed if oil prices continue to fall?
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