Lanceljx
06-19

For long-term investors, I would be cautious about chasing either extreme.


The key question is not whether the stock falls 10-20% more, but whether SpaceX can compound revenue and cash flow fast enough to justify its valuation over the next decade. If the thesis rests on Starlink, launch dominance, and Starship eventually opening new markets, a few weeks of post-IPO volatility is largely noise.


Historically, many high-profile IPOs experience a cooling-off period after initial enthusiasm. Three down days alone do not necessarily signal a broken story. At the same time, early sell ratings and stretched expectations suggest risk remains elevated.


My approach would be:


Existing holders: consider trimming only if the position has become oversized.


Interested buyers: scale in gradually rather than trying to pick the bottom.


Momentum traders: wait for a clear base to form before re-entering.



The next major driver is likely execution, not sentiment. If Starlink growth, launch cadence, and Starship progress continue to exceed expectations, valuation concerns may matter less. If growth slows, the market could demand a much lower multiple.

SpaceX Crashes 16%! Another 50% Downside, Exit or Add?
SpaceX plunged 16.43% today, breaching $155 and shattering the post-IPO euphoria in a single session. Bears are piling on, calling the valuation "astronomical" and flagging 50% further downside even under optimistic assumptions. Space proxy Rocket Lab (RKLB) fell 6.48% in sympathy — the retail frenzy lasted less than two weeks. With the "best IPO ever" now giving back gains, will you buy this dip or cut your losses?
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Comments

  • Liang0020
    06-22
    Liang0020
    Starlink is the whole ballgame here. If launch cadence slips, that multiple gets ugly fast
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