Replying to @HiTALK:Hi, thanks

Replying to @HiTALK:Hi, thanks for reading my post. The entire Oil industry (Includes refining, pipelines, petrochemicals, retail, indirect effects etc..) contributes between 6% - 8% of US Gross domestic product (GDP). It ranks #7 in terms of contribution to US GDP.

I do not believe any US govt will allow the Oil industry to collapse due to the sheer number of people working in this industry.

Yes, waiting for "right" dip buy moment. It will NOT be today, Fri because Vance just cancelled his trip to Switzerland to formally sign the Peace MOU. Pity.. //@HiTALK:Buyback support matters more than the headline drop. You waiting for another flush before touching XOM or CVX?

@JC888：XOM, CVX - Still a Buy Amid US-Iran peace !

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":576873763906368,"tweetId":"576873763906368","gmtCreate":1781863244446,"gmtModify":1781865772604,"author":{"id":3570103090255456,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorId":3570103090255456,"authorIdStr":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1f15eae4f682dc4cb91bfca455452752","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.31","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.21","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1679961600000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":1996963200000,"validityToTimestamp":1784620822954}],"fanSize":9940,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3479274776688173\">@HiTALK</a>:Hi, thanks for reading my post.&nbsp; The entire Oil industry (Includes refining, pipelines, petrochemicals, retail, indirect effects etc..) contributes between 6% - 8% of US Gross domestic product (GDP).&nbsp; It ranks #7 in terms of contribution to US GDP.&nbsp;&nbsp;\n \n \nI do not believe any US govt will allow the Oil industry to collapse due to the sheer number of people working in this industry.&nbsp;&nbsp;\n \n \nYes, waiting for \"right\" dip buy moment.&nbsp; It will NOT be today, Fri because Vance just cancelled his trip to Switzerland to formally sign the Peace MOU.&nbsp; Pity..&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3479274776688173\">@HiTALK</a>:Buyback support matters more than the headline drop. You waiting for another flush before touching XOM or CVX?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3479274776688173\">@HiTALK</a>:Hi, thanks for reading my post.&nbsp; The entire Oil industry (Includes refining, pipelines, petrochemicals, retail, indirect effects etc..) contributes between 6% - 8% of US Gross domestic product (GDP).&nbsp; It ranks #7 in terms of contribution to US GDP.&nbsp;&nbsp;\n \n \nI do not believe any US govt will allow the Oil industry to collapse due to the sheer number of people working in this industry.&nbsp;&nbsp;\n \n \nYes, waiting for \"right\" dip buy moment.&nbsp; It will NOT be today, Fri because Vance just cancelled his trip to Switzerland to formally sign the Peace MOU.&nbsp; Pity..&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3479274776688173\">@HiTALK</a>:Buyback support matters more than the headline drop. You waiting for another flush before touching XOM or CVX?</body></html>","text":"Replying to @HiTALK:Hi, thanks for reading my post. The entire Oil industry (Includes refining, pipelines, petrochemicals, retail, indirect effects etc..) contributes between 6% - 8% of US Gross domestic product (GDP). It ranks #7 in terms of contribution to US GDP. I do not believe any US govt will allow the Oil industry to collapse due to the sheer number of people working in this industry. Yes, waiting for \"right\" dip buy moment. It will NOT be today, Fri because Vance just cancelled his trip to Switzerland to formally sign the Peace MOU. Pity.. //@HiTALK:Buyback support matters more than the headline drop. You waiting for another flush before touching XOM or CVX?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/576873763906368","repostId":576520665174440,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":576520665174440,"tweetId":"576520665174440","gmtCreate":1781776918259,"gmtModify":1781781389468,"author":{"id":3570103090255456,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorId":3570103090255456,"authorIdStr":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1f15eae4f682dc4cb91bfca455452752","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.31","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.21","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1679961600000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":1996963200000,"validityToTimestamp":1784620822954}],"fanSize":9940,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"03a13bd686f74044877806753eeb297a","categoryId":"770db9836d2348e6a2ce970784159449","name":"Oil Rebounds: Can It Stabilize Within Ceasefire Window?","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":03a13bd686f74044877806753eeb297a}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"USO edged up 1.91% to $126.96, staging a technical recovery after yesterday's near-10% plunge as the geopolitical risk premium tied to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire window nears exhaustion. OPEC+ production increase expectations and slowing global demand growth continue to weigh on the medium-term outlook, with $130 as near-term resistance. \nOutcome would be agreement extension?\nOr breakdown-driven rebound?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/78217c8d2ad82ee5a30deab77f4dcec6"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/270f5f9e1d75ebcf4b1a9a678a5a0393","width":"882","height":"439"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/996f33d9253c68ec3521db229a491b80","width":"729","height":"362"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89a2e3a27e6c857f4e53d931b1b03faf","width":"613","height":"730"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a21e8083eb642244a4c51ce78579704","width":"518","height":"97"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a065a119eef7cf840182d4b290c2d44f","width":"958","height":"232"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9bb047a869c3884fae280f737ba89a46","width":"738","height":"322"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a0602d8babf13cc7c4c7b82f5df0288","width":"798","height":"388"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff15a85253f174020390c84bfc3d9ac0","width":"1127","height":"278"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5a147a1458dcd44f61abfc349d324c23","width":"1238","height":"266"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2f8cf73a22eb00e4426ac940617a280","width":"589","height":"143"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c7cae5285db70d9f1a4e1aa322f72ac","width":"854","height":"100"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/270f5f9e1d75ebcf4b1a9a678a5a0393","width":"882","height":"439"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/996f33d9253c68ec3521db229a491b80","width":"729","height":"362"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89a2e3a27e6c857f4e53d931b1b03faf","width":"613","height":"730"}],"title":"XOM, CVX - Still a Buy Amid US-Iran peace !","html":"<html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/270f5f9e1d75ebcf4b1a9a678a5a0393\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"439\">\n<h2>The Old Man That Cried Wolf.</h2>\nAfter&nbsp;many weeks&nbsp;of&nbsp;pre-emptive&nbsp;Truth Social declarations that&nbsp;routinely&nbsp;cried wolf to the markets, Trump’s heavily promoted US-Iran peace deal finally graduated from social media propaganda.\nIt became a&nbsp;verified, official framework agreement.\nTentatively, the agreement to end the war, will be officially signed on&nbsp;Fri,19 Jun 2026&nbsp;in Switzerland.\nAt the just concluded G7 Meeting, Trump hogged the limelight and infamously declared that he has signed the MOU to:\n<ul>\n <li>\n End&nbsp;a&nbsp;US blockade&nbsp;of Iranian ports.</li>\n <li>\n Reopen&nbsp;the Strait of Hormuz for 60-days tariffs free.</li>\n <li>\n Start the&nbsp;60 days&nbsp;of nuclear negotiations.</li>\n</ul>\nEqually important, it is confirmed too that Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian has counter-signed the same document for the Iranian side.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/996f33d9253c68ec3521db229a491b80\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"362\">\n<h2>Oil Price Tumbles.</h2>\nThe recent wave of headlines regarding a tentative US-Iran peace deal has triggered a sharp, sentiment-driven pullback in the energy sector, marking the worst run for oil prices so far this year. (see below)\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89a2e3a27e6c857f4e53d931b1b03faf\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"730\">\nBrent and WTI crude prices have retreated as algorithmic trading systems rushed to price in an&nbsp;immediate&nbsp;resolution to geopolitical ‘resolution’.\nHowever, a&nbsp;closer&nbsp;look at the logistical and corporate realities of the energy market suggests that&nbsp;abandoning&nbsp;core mega-cap integrated oil holdings like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XOM\">$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVX\">$Chevron(CVX)$</a>&nbsp;ahead of year-end would be a&nbsp;premature&nbsp;move.\nThis is because the actual, physical supply chains&nbsp;cannot&nbsp;be altered by a headline.\nFor long-term investors, the structural investment thesis for XOM and CVX&nbsp;remains highly robust through the end of the year.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a21e8083eb642244a4c51ce78579704\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"97\">\n<h2>The Disconnect connects.</h2>\nFact&nbsp;- both XOM and CVX are US companies with most of their production based out of Western Hemispheric assets:\n<ul>\n <li>\n The Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.</li>\n <li>\n Deepwater projects in Guyana.</li>\n</ul>\nYet, they are&nbsp;deeply&nbsp;tied&nbsp;to the Strait of Hormuz for&nbsp;two&nbsp;structural reasons:\n<ul>\n <li>\n Globalized pricing.</li>\n <li>\n Asymmetric asset risk.</li>\n</ul>\nConnecting these mechanisms clarifies why a physical reopening of the Straits of Hormuz directly shapes the year-end holding thesis for XOM and CVX.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a065a119eef7cf840182d4b290c2d44f\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"232\">\n<h2>Globalized Pricing.</h2>\nOil is a&nbsp;global&nbsp;commodity, any major shift in supply anywhere in the world immediately shifts the global price tape.\nAs such, WTI &amp; Brent prices are&nbsp;set by global supply and demand,&nbsp;not&nbsp;just US production.\nWhen Hormuz was&nbsp;blocked, global supply tightened and prices surged. CVX and XOM sell their US barrels at these&nbsp;higher&nbsp;global prices\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9bb047a869c3884fae280f737ba89a46\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"322\">\n<h2>Asymmetric asset risk - The Hormuz Exposure Mismatch.</h2>\nDuring recent sell-off, the market treats both XOM and CVX similarly, so far.\nHowever, looking closely at how both companies actually operate shows that reopening the Strait affects their business risks in completely different ways.\nAnalysis of upstream (extraction) portfolios highlights a major divergence:\nCVX’s 0% upstream exposure to the Strait.\n<ul>\n <li>\n Chevron does not rely on the Persian Gulf to produce its oil.</li>\n <li>\n Its growth engine is entirely tied to short-cycle US shale and deepwater fields.</li>\n <li>\n When the market sells off CVX because of a Middle East peace deal, it is reacting purely to the&nbsp;commodity price drop, not to any threat to CVX's actual infrastructure.</li>\n</ul>\nXOM approx. 20% upstream exposure to the Region.&nbsp;\n<ul>\n <li>\n Exxon holds major joint-venture production assets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).</li>\n <li>\n When the Strait was blocked or threatened, XOM faced double-edged exposure: (a) it gained from high oil prices globally, but (b) faced severe operational risk if its own regional joint ventures could not export their products.</li>\n</ul>\n<h2>XOM &amp; CVX - Worth Holding.</h2>\nEstablishing this operational backdrop clarifies exactly why holding XOM and CVX through the year-end pullback makes fundamental sense. (see below)\nDownstream Hedge Protects Margins\n<ul>\n <li>\n Both XOM and CVX are integrated oil companies.</li>\n <li>\n They don't just drill for oil; they refine it into (i) gasoline, (ii) diesel, and (iii) chemicals.</li>\n <li>\n With the Straits reopening that pushes global crude prices lower, significantly reducing raw material input costs for their massive refining arms.</li>\n <li>\n This creates a natural financial cushion. While lower oil prices hurt drilling profits, they boost refining margins, stabilizing cash flow in a way that pure drilling companies cannot match.</li>\n</ul>\n<h2>Extreme Global Inventory Depletion</h2>\nBefore the peace deal headlines hit, both XOM and CVX executives explicitly warned that global commercial oil inventories and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) had been drained to dangerously low historical levels. (see below)\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a0602d8babf13cc7c4c7b82f5df0288\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"388\">\n*As of June 2026, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sits at 349.19 million barrels, that is approx. 49% of its maximum authorized capacity.\nThis level represents the lowest emergency reserve volume in over 40 years, driven by international energy agreements and responses to regional supply disruptions\nBecause physical inventories are depleted, the market cannot afford any major logistical delays.\nAs established by maritime shippers, safely sweeping the Strait of Hormuz for mines, renegotiating insurance premiums, and reorganizing supertanker routes will take several months.\n<blockquote>\n Convinced now that there is definitely life after the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz ?\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff15a85253f174020390c84bfc3d9ac0\" tg-width=\"1127\" tg-height=\"278\">\n<h2>My viewpoints: (mine only)</h2>\nThe market’s automated systems sold off XOM and CVX because they mistook a political announcement for an immediate physical flood of global oil.\nBy understanding that XOM and CVX are heavily insulated from Middle Eastern supply disruptions, either through (a) zero direct infrastructure exposure (ie. CVX) or (b) via massive global refining offsets (XOM), investors should view the technical pullback as an artificial discount.\nWith global inventories severely depleted and physical supply normalization months away, the cash-generating power supporting their dividends and buybacks remains structurally intact through the end of the year easily.\n<blockquote>\n The million dollar question now is when will be a good time to buy into XOM &amp; CVX. Agree?\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5a147a1458dcd44f61abfc349d324c23\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"266\">\n<blockquote>\n Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Must Read:&nbsp;Click on below titles to access.&nbsp;Repost&nbsp;to share,&nbsp;Like&nbsp;as encouragement&nbsp;ok. Thanks.\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/575770907161488\" target=\"_blank\">Resilient US Market Defy Inflation Shock ?</a></li>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/574720101564928\" target=\"_blank\">Buzz off Mag 7, MANGOS's here and staying !</a></li>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/574166796268688\" target=\"_blank\">INTC, a BUY after current noise settles ?</a>\n </li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2f8cf73a22eb00e4426ac940617a280\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"143\">\n<ul>\n <li>\n Do you think&nbsp;the post is accurate in pin pointing sales in energy stocks ?</li>\n <li>\n Do you think there is never a better time and place to purchase XOM or CVX ?\n </li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c7cae5285db70d9f1a4e1aa322f72ac\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"100\">\nIf you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️&nbsp;Repost&nbsp;and share the insights ?\nDo consider&nbsp;“Follow me”&nbsp;and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667621665671\">@Daily_Discussion</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667588142897\">@TigerPM</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\">@Tiger_SG</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667667103859\">@TigerEvents</a></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/270f5f9e1d75ebcf4b1a9a678a5a0393\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"439\">\n<h2>The Old Man That Cried Wolf.</h2>\nAfter&nbsp;many weeks&nbsp;of&nbsp;pre-emptive&nbsp;Truth Social declarations that&nbsp;routinely&nbsp;cried wolf to the markets, Trump’s heavily promoted US-Iran peace deal finally graduated from social media propaganda.\nIt became a&nbsp;verified, official framework agreement.\nTentatively, the agreement to end the war, will be officially signed on&nbsp;Fri,19 Jun 2026&nbsp;in Switzerland.\nAt the just concluded G7 Meeting, Trump hogged the limelight and infamously declared that he has signed the MOU to:\n<ul>\n <li>\n End&nbsp;a&nbsp;US blockade&nbsp;of Iranian ports.</li>\n <li>\n Reopen&nbsp;the Strait of Hormuz for 60-days tariffs free.</li>\n <li>\n Start the&nbsp;60 days&nbsp;of nuclear negotiations.</li>\n</ul>\nEqually important, it is confirmed too that Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian has counter-signed the same document for the Iranian side.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/996f33d9253c68ec3521db229a491b80\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"362\">\n<h2>Oil Price Tumbles.</h2>\nThe recent wave of headlines regarding a tentative US-Iran peace deal has triggered a sharp, sentiment-driven pullback in the energy sector, marking the worst run for oil prices so far this year. (see below)\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89a2e3a27e6c857f4e53d931b1b03faf\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"730\">\nBrent and WTI crude prices have retreated as algorithmic trading systems rushed to price in an&nbsp;immediate&nbsp;resolution to geopolitical ‘resolution’.\nHowever, a&nbsp;closer&nbsp;look at the logistical and corporate realities of the energy market suggests that&nbsp;abandoning&nbsp;core mega-cap integrated oil holdings like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XOM\">$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVX\">$Chevron(CVX)$</a>&nbsp;ahead of year-end would be a&nbsp;premature&nbsp;move.\nThis is because the actual, physical supply chains&nbsp;cannot&nbsp;be altered by a headline.\nFor long-term investors, the structural investment thesis for XOM and CVX&nbsp;remains highly robust through the end of the year.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a21e8083eb642244a4c51ce78579704\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"97\">\n<h2>The Disconnect connects.</h2>\nFact&nbsp;- both XOM and CVX are US companies with most of their production based out of Western Hemispheric assets:\n<ul>\n <li>\n The Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.</li>\n <li>\n Deepwater projects in Guyana.</li>\n</ul>\nYet, they are&nbsp;deeply&nbsp;tied&nbsp;to the Strait of Hormuz for&nbsp;two&nbsp;structural reasons:\n<ul>\n <li>\n Globalized pricing.</li>\n <li>\n Asymmetric asset risk.</li>\n</ul>\nConnecting these mechanisms clarifies why a physical reopening of the Straits of Hormuz directly shapes the year-end holding thesis for XOM and CVX.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a065a119eef7cf840182d4b290c2d44f\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"232\">\n<h2>Globalized Pricing.</h2>\nOil is a&nbsp;global&nbsp;commodity, any major shift in supply anywhere in the world immediately shifts the global price tape.\nAs such, WTI &amp; Brent prices are&nbsp;set by global supply and demand,&nbsp;not&nbsp;just US production.\nWhen Hormuz was&nbsp;blocked, global supply tightened and prices surged. CVX and XOM sell their US barrels at these&nbsp;higher&nbsp;global prices\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9bb047a869c3884fae280f737ba89a46\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"322\">\n<h2>Asymmetric asset risk - The Hormuz Exposure Mismatch.</h2>\nDuring recent sell-off, the market treats both XOM and CVX similarly, so far.\nHowever, looking closely at how both companies actually operate shows that reopening the Strait affects their business risks in completely different ways.\nAnalysis of upstream (extraction) portfolios highlights a major divergence:\nCVX’s 0% upstream exposure to the Strait.\n<ul>\n <li>\n Chevron does not rely on the Persian Gulf to produce its oil.</li>\n <li>\n Its growth engine is entirely tied to short-cycle US shale and deepwater fields.</li>\n <li>\n When the market sells off CVX because of a Middle East peace deal, it is reacting purely to the&nbsp;commodity price drop, not to any threat to CVX's actual infrastructure.</li>\n</ul>\nXOM approx. 20% upstream exposure to the Region.&nbsp;\n<ul>\n <li>\n Exxon holds major joint-venture production assets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).</li>\n <li>\n When the Strait was blocked or threatened, XOM faced double-edged exposure: (a) it gained from high oil prices globally, but (b) faced severe operational risk if its own regional joint ventures could not export their products.</li>\n</ul>\n<h2>XOM &amp; CVX - Worth Holding.</h2>\nEstablishing this operational backdrop clarifies exactly why holding XOM and CVX through the year-end pullback makes fundamental sense. (see below)\nDownstream Hedge Protects Margins\n<ul>\n <li>\n Both XOM and CVX are integrated oil companies.</li>\n <li>\n They don't just drill for oil; they refine it into (i) gasoline, (ii) diesel, and (iii) chemicals.</li>\n <li>\n With the Straits reopening that pushes global crude prices lower, significantly reducing raw material input costs for their massive refining arms.</li>\n <li>\n This creates a natural financial cushion. While lower oil prices hurt drilling profits, they boost refining margins, stabilizing cash flow in a way that pure drilling companies cannot match.</li>\n</ul>\n<h2>Extreme Global Inventory Depletion</h2>\nBefore the peace deal headlines hit, both XOM and CVX executives explicitly warned that global commercial oil inventories and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) had been drained to dangerously low historical levels. (see below)\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a0602d8babf13cc7c4c7b82f5df0288\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"388\">\n*As of June 2026, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sits at 349.19 million barrels, that is approx. 49% of its maximum authorized capacity.\nThis level represents the lowest emergency reserve volume in over 40 years, driven by international energy agreements and responses to regional supply disruptions\nBecause physical inventories are depleted, the market cannot afford any major logistical delays.\nAs established by maritime shippers, safely sweeping the Strait of Hormuz for mines, renegotiating insurance premiums, and reorganizing supertanker routes will take several months.\n<blockquote>\n Convinced now that there is definitely life after the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz ?\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff15a85253f174020390c84bfc3d9ac0\" tg-width=\"1127\" tg-height=\"278\">\n<h2>My viewpoints: (mine only)</h2>\nThe market’s automated systems sold off XOM and CVX because they mistook a political announcement for an immediate physical flood of global oil.\nBy understanding that XOM and CVX are heavily insulated from Middle Eastern supply disruptions, either through (a) zero direct infrastructure exposure (ie. CVX) or (b) via massive global refining offsets (XOM), investors should view the technical pullback as an artificial discount.\nWith global inventories severely depleted and physical supply normalization months away, the cash-generating power supporting their dividends and buybacks remains structurally intact through the end of the year easily.\n<blockquote>\n The million dollar question now is when will be a good time to buy into XOM &amp; CVX. Agree?\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5a147a1458dcd44f61abfc349d324c23\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"266\">\n<blockquote>\n Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Must Read:&nbsp;Click on below titles to access.&nbsp;Repost&nbsp;to share,&nbsp;Like&nbsp;as encouragement&nbsp;ok. Thanks.\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/575770907161488\" target=\"_blank\">Resilient US Market Defy Inflation Shock ?</a></li>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/574720101564928\" target=\"_blank\">Buzz off Mag 7, MANGOS's here and staying !</a></li>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/574166796268688\" target=\"_blank\">INTC, a BUY after current noise settles ?</a>\n </li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2f8cf73a22eb00e4426ac940617a280\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"143\">\n<ul>\n <li>\n Do you think&nbsp;the post is accurate in pin pointing sales in energy stocks ?</li>\n <li>\n Do you think there is never a better time and place to purchase XOM or CVX ?\n </li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c7cae5285db70d9f1a4e1aa322f72ac\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"100\">\nIf you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️&nbsp;Repost&nbsp;and share the insights ?\nDo consider&nbsp;“Follow me”&nbsp;and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667621665671\">@Daily_Discussion</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667588142897\">@TigerPM</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\">@Tiger_SG</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667667103859\">@TigerEvents</a></body></html>","text":"The Old Man That Cried Wolf. After many weeks of pre-emptive Truth Social declarations that routinely cried wolf to the markets, Trump’s heavily promoted US-Iran peace deal finally graduated from social media propaganda. It became a verified, official framework agreement. Tentatively, the agreement to end the war, will be officially signed on Fri,19 Jun 2026 in Switzerland. At the just concluded G7 Meeting, Trump hogged the limelight and infamously declared that he has signed the MOU to: End a US blockade of Iranian ports. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz for 60-days tariffs free. Start the 60 days of nuclear negotiations. Equally important, it is confirmed too that Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian has counter-signed the same document for the Iranian side. Oil Price Tumbles. The recent wave of headlines regarding a tentative US-Iran peace deal has triggered a sharp, sentiment-driven pullback in the energy sector, marking the worst run for oil prices so far this year. (see below) Brent and WTI crude prices have retreated as algorithmic trading systems rushed to price in an immediate resolution to geopolitical ‘resolution’. However, a closer look at the logistical and corporate realities of the energy market suggests that abandoning core mega-cap integrated oil holdings like $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ and $Chevron(CVX)$ ahead of year-end would be a premature move. This is because the actual, physical supply chains cannot be altered by a headline. For long-term investors, the structural investment thesis for XOM and CVX remains highly robust through the end of the year. The Disconnect connects. Fact - both XOM and CVX are US companies with most of their production based out of Western Hemispheric assets: The Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. Deepwater projects in Guyana. Yet, they are deeply tied to the Strait of Hormuz for two structural reasons: Globalized pricing. Asymmetric asset risk. Connecting these mechanisms clarifies why a physical reopening of the Straits of Hormuz directly shapes the year-end holding thesis for XOM and CVX. Globalized Pricing. Oil is a global commodity, any major shift in supply anywhere in the world immediately shifts the global price tape. As such, WTI & Brent prices are set by global supply and demand, not just US production. When Hormuz was blocked, global supply tightened and prices surged. CVX and XOM sell their US barrels at these higher global prices Asymmetric asset risk - The Hormuz Exposure Mismatch. During recent sell-off, the market treats both XOM and CVX similarly, so far. However, looking closely at how both companies actually operate shows that reopening the Strait affects their business risks in completely different ways. Analysis of upstream (extraction) portfolios highlights a major divergence: CVX’s 0% upstream exposure to the Strait. Chevron does not rely on the Persian Gulf to produce its oil. Its growth engine is entirely tied to short-cycle US shale and deepwater fields. When the market sells off CVX because of a Middle East peace deal, it is reacting purely to the commodity price drop, not to any threat to CVX's actual infrastructure. XOM approx. 20% upstream exposure to the Region. Exxon holds major joint-venture production assets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). When the Strait was blocked or threatened, XOM faced double-edged exposure: (a) it gained from high oil prices globally, but (b) faced severe operational risk if its own regional joint ventures could not export their products. XOM & CVX - Worth Holding. Establishing this operational backdrop clarifies exactly why holding XOM and CVX through the year-end pullback makes fundamental sense. (see below) Downstream Hedge Protects Margins Both XOM and CVX are integrated oil companies. They don't just drill for oil; they refine it into (i) gasoline, (ii) diesel, and (iii) chemicals. With the Straits reopening that pushes global crude prices lower, significantly reducing raw material input costs for their massive refining arms. This creates a natural financial cushion. While lower oil prices hurt drilling profits, they boost refining margins, stabilizing cash flow in a way that pure drilling companies cannot match. Extreme Global Inventory Depletion Before the peace deal headlines hit, both XOM and CVX executives explicitly warned that global commercial oil inventories and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) had been drained to dangerously low historical levels. (see below) *As of June 2026, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sits at 349.19 million barrels, that is approx. 49% of its maximum authorized capacity. This level represents the lowest emergency reserve volume in over 40 years, driven by international energy agreements and responses to regional supply disruptions Because physical inventories are depleted, the market cannot afford any major logistical delays. As established by maritime shippers, safely sweeping the Strait of Hormuz for mines, renegotiating insurance premiums, and reorganizing supertanker routes will take several months. Convinced now that there is definitely life after the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz ? My viewpoints: (mine only) The market’s automated systems sold off XOM and CVX because they mistook a political announcement for an immediate physical flood of global oil. By understanding that XOM and CVX are heavily insulated from Middle Eastern supply disruptions, either through (a) zero direct infrastructure exposure (ie. CVX) or (b) via massive global refining offsets (XOM), investors should view the technical pullback as an artificial discount. With global inventories severely depleted and physical supply normalization months away, the cash-generating power supporting their dividends and buybacks remains structurally intact through the end of the year easily. The million dollar question now is when will be a good time to buy into XOM & CVX. Agree? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Resilient US Market Defy Inflation Shock ? Buzz off Mag 7, MANGOS's here and staying ! INTC, a BUY after current noise settles ? Do you think the post is accurate in pin pointing sales in energy stocks ? Do you think there is never a better time and place to purchase XOM or CVX ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/576520665174440","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["XOM","CVX"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":5552,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":564,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/576873763906368"}