Alihuat
06-18

AI commercialization remains concentrated in infrastructure; giants like Microsoft (MSFT) must bridge heavy CAPEX with direct software monetization—though its 123% surge in AI run-rate revenue to $37 billion shows scaling adoption. Forward multiples are adjusting, with Nvidia (NVDA) trading at a compressed forward P/E of 22, down from historical peaks. This coincides with a hawkish tightening cycle, highlighted by the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% while raising its median projection to 3.8%, signaling rates will stay higher for longer. Rather than the end of this bull market, the Fed's stance is a precautionary adjustment to engineer a soft landing. Consequently, the market is turning into a stock-picker's arena where cash-rich, cyclical companies outperform speculative tech. The long-term upward trend remains resilient, provided robust corporate productivity absorbs these sustained borrowing costs.

Payrolls Fell 23K Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday's CPI Keep It Up?
S&P 500 +0.62% to a record close Friday, Nasdaq +1.30%, Dow +0.28%. The catalyst was a jobs report bad in the right way: July payrolls fell 23,000, May and June were revised down a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2% year-over-year. September hike odds slid to around 44%, and AI and semis took the valuation room. July CPI lands Wednesday, 20:30 Beijing — with warnings it could argue the other way. Weak jobs read bullish; does inflation get the same treatment?
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