TheVisionary
06-17

What everyone think of the important Ipo coming?

Rate-Hike Odds Jump From 40% to 70% in a Week — Time to Reprice AI Capex at 4.8%?
Rates were the story: the 10-year broke 4.8%, back to Oct 2023 levels, the 30-year hit 5.29%. Dow −419 points, S&P 500 −0.71%, QQQ −1.27%. The Iran standoff held Brent above $90 a third session; Warsh repeated his anti-inflation line while Barr signalled a hike if inflation stalls, taking odds of a hike this month from ~40% to ~70% in a week. Microsoft −1.24%, its $41bn capex now discounted at 4.8%; Nvidia −1.51%, Nebius −3.29%, Oracle ~−4%. Wednesday's ADP and Friday's payrolls (~45,000 consensus) decide. Rotate to cash-flow certainty before payrolls, or call the rate jump noise?
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