Kinnikt
06-08

I’m not running for the exit. I’m treating this as a watchlist moment, not an all-in moment. The AI trade was crowded, rates just got repriced higher, and expectations for semis were stretched. That combination can wipe out a trillion dollars fast. But the long-term AI infrastructure buildout has not disappeared in one session. I’d rather scale in slowly, focus on quality chip leaders, and let the market prove support before adding aggressively. Panic creates opportunity, but only if you keep dry powder.

Treasury Doubles Buyback Program — Can S&P Rally Sustain?
The 30-year hit a 19-year high Wednesday, then the Treasury stepped in: buybacks on 10- to 30-year paper at least doubled, and the yield fell 9bp to 5.19%, closing near 5.20%, then 5.18% Thursday. Equities took little of it — SPY +0.21%, Dow +0.22%, the gains in healthcare as tech slipped again. The July minutes matched the vote: most for holding, three dissenting for 25bp at 3.50–3.75%. Next is Jackson Hole and Warsh's first appearance as Chair. Rotate back to tech on lower yields, stay with healthcare, or wait for his tone?
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