Markets see roughly a 40% prob-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

FOMC Minutes Due Thursday — Can S&P 500 All-Time High Hold?

S&P 500 −0.17% Friday to 7,785.76 after soft retail sales, still up ~0.4% on the week from Thursday's record. In-line CPI, flat monthly PPI and cooling jobs have futures at ~67% for no change. The week's main event: July FOMC minutes, Thursday 2 a.m. Beijing, from the meeting that held at 3.50–3.75% with three dissents for a hike. Retail reports pre-market — Home Depot Tuesday, Target Wednesday, Walmart Thursday (est. $188.79bn). Stay in AI and semis, rotate to financials and consumer, or wait for the minutes?

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