Lanceljx
05-29 18:40
Major banks are split because they're focusing on different drivers.

Bears: Higher real yields, resilient USD, and ETF outflows. If rates stay high, gold faces a headwind.

Bulls: Central-bank buying, rising government debt, geopolitical risks, and eventual rate cuts. They see the recent correction as temporary.

For ETF outflows, I would not blindly follow them. ETF investors are often late to both tops and bottoms. More important is whether central banks continue accumulating.

My stance:

Short term: Neutral to cautious. Momentum remains weak.

Long term: Moderately bullish.

Strategy: Gradual accumulation rather than an all-in dip buy.

The signal I'd watch is ETF outflows slowing while central-bank demand stays strong. If that happens, the current correction may look more like a reset than the start of a prolonged bear market.

I'd be a selective dip buyer, not a trend follower and not an aggressive contrarian.

Gold "Chain Drop", ETF Outflow: When to Buy the Dip?
On May 28, $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$briefly fell to $4,366/oz, a single heavy blow that sent it to its lowest point in nearly two months. Since the Iran war broke out at the end of February, gold has cumulatively fallen more than 17% in just three months, almost completely wiping out all of this year's gains. The more frantically people rushed to buy gold last year, the more painful being trapped is now. How do you view the divergence among major banks on gold's price outlook? ETF outflows: will you follow the trend or contrarian buy the dip?
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