Coinbase 1Q26 Review: Revenue Under Pressure, Execution Still Visible

SG Visual Research
05-11
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  

Coinbase’s 1Q26 report is not about a strong crypto market.

The environment remained weak:

Total revenue: US$1.41bn, -31% YoY

Adjusted EBITDA: US$303mn, below consensus

Transaction revenue: US$756mn, -40% YoY

But execution signals were still visible:

trading volume market share rose to 8.6%

derivatives volume grew 169% YoY

Prediction Markets annualized revenue exceeded US$100mn

stablecoin revenue grew 11% YoY to US$305mn


CLARITY Act Advances, Yet Circle Drops: Sell the News?
Circle slid 2.13% to $123 even as the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee — a landmark step for long-stalled U.S. stablecoin regulation — with prediction markets sharply cutting odds on final passage, triggering a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction. CLARITY Act enactment would provide a compliance framework for USDC and structurally benefit Circle's business model. Regulatory progress is a long-term positive, but near-term selling pressure has arrived — will you build a position in Circle on this dip?
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