US Stocks Out of Control 🎢 — The Era of Overnight Surges

​The recent madness in the US stock market is bordering on out of control. Watching SANDISK skyrocket over 4000% in a year, I can’t help but wonder if we’re approaching something like the 2000 Dot-Com bubble. Honestly, I haven't been in the market that long and I'm still building experience, but even the craziness of 2021 doesn't compare to what we're seeing right now. 🤯

​The Buffett Indicator is currently sitting around 210-230%, whereas it only peaked at about 150-200% during the height of the Dot-Com bubble. This means the total market cap of US stocks has far outgrown the actual size of the US physical economy.

​Meanwhile, the Shiller PE ratio is hovering around 42, which is neck-and-neck with the 38 we saw in 2021 and the 44 we hit during the Dot-Com peak. We are definitely sitting far above historical norms right now. It is absolutely a time to be on high alert. 🚨

​The recent frenzy surrounding AI, semiconductors, and memory companies is arguably the craziest short-term boom since 2000! Every memory-related stock is surging back-to-back, doubling in a matter of months, and the whole world is going nuts over it. Anything with "AI" slapped on it goes up—kind of reminds me of back in the day when anything with ".COM" in its name would automatically print money. ~ 💸

​But while it feels very similar to 2000, there is also a key difference.

​Back in 2000, a lot of companies had no profits, no cash flow, and sometimes no actual business. Their stock prices were purely propped up by stories. When the bubble burst, those stocks went straight to zero. 📉

​The situation today is different. AI companies are actually producing things, they have a real market, and they are generating real profits. Plus, they have massive cash flow, strong moats, and are practically global monopolies—think NVDA, MSFT, etc. 🛡️

​But... are these great companies really earning that much right now? Or does the market just think they are going to earn that much soon? 🤔

​I genuinely believe that both the internet and AI have brought about true generational shifts.

​In 2000, when I first went online, I felt how drastically different the world had become. Fast forward 25 years later, and I'm seeing the sheer power of what AI tools can do. The impact of both the internet and AI is very real. At least as an IT guy, I truly feel like a witness spanning two massive eras.

​The only difference? In 2000, I didn't know how to trade stocks. Today, I'm deep in the market, so I feel it much more intensely. 💻📈

​All stock market peaks are followed by corrections. The higher the climb, the deeper the drop.

​When investors start believing that valuations don't matter because "everything goes up anyway," risk is steadily creeping in. Whether it's 2000 or 2026, the overall direction of the tech is right, but stock prices can still overshoot.

​Personally... I think we need to take a step back, clear our heads, and reflect. It's rare to live through an era like this. 🧘‍♂️

​I think there are two main ways to survive this market:

1️⃣ Dollar-Cost Average (DCA) into ETFs regardless of the ups and downs.

2️⃣ Hold a large chunk of cash, wait for a market correction, buy the dip, and sell immediately once you hit a specific profit target.

​The first method means accepting that you can't predict the market. No guessing tops or bottoms, no forecasting, no market timing. Just stick to your DCA, hold long-term, and keep buying ETFs to let the market compound your capital. It's the simplest way to optimize your finances. It might not maximize your returns to the absolute limit, but it saves you from the market's insanity. 🐢📊

​The second method is for swing traders who profit off market sentiment. You stockpile cash, wait for a pullback, buy in, and sell as soon as you hit your margin. In a volatile market, swing trading will probably net you more than DCAing. BUT, this requires time to stare at charts and the ability to predict market direction. It's the exact polar opposite of the first method. 🦅📉

​I personally think a hybrid model has real value in a market like this. ⚖️

​Put 90-95% of your capital into ETFs using the first method, and use the remaining 5-10% for swing trading. This keeps your core assets rock-solid while still satisfying that psychological itch to actively trade. Plus, swing trading with a small amount of capital keeps the mental pressure low.

​Mixing both requires strict discipline! Remember, your swing trading fund should ALWAYS remain just 5-10% of your total capital. If your target is 10% profit, take it and get out quickly once you hit it. 🎯

​Participating in the market madness with a small bag might just save you from banging your head against the wall every morning when you wake up and see that stock you didn't buy jump 15% overnight... Though I'm well aware it also means facing the possibility of a 15% overnight crash! ~ 😅

​Amidst all this craziness, I'm just glad I still have some INTC holding down the bottom of my portfolio. That feeling of redemption is just too good. Otherwise, I'd only be able to savor this wild ride through my SMH holdings! 🚀🛡️

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