Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!
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On Friday (May 8), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April non-farm payrolls report. Data showed that the U.S. added 115,000 non-farm jobs in April, significantly higher than the market expectation of approximately 55,000-65,000; the March figure was revised upward from the initial 178,000 to 185,000, while the February figure was revised downward. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below expectations.
Prior to the data release, the market was cautious about the employment situation, with some institutions concerned that energy volatility due to the situation in Iran might gradually spill over into the labor market, leading to a slowdown in corporate hiring. After the data release, the dollar index initially rose before falling, hitting a low of 97.94; spot gold briefly fell to around 4710 before rebounding; U.S. crude oil fell by about $0.60; the pound and euro rose against the dollar in the short term; and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield narrowed its decline slightly. Overall, the market reaction reflected recognition of the strength of the data, accompanied by some volatility.
Deep Dive Analysis
This non-farm payroll report shows the job market remains resilient. The 115,000 new jobs added far exceeded expectations, with the private sector contributing significantly. Healthcare, transportation, warehousing, and retail provided major support, while government employment continued to decline slightly. Historically, employment data has shown volatility in recent months: after a strong rebound in March, April continued to exceed the market's "break-even point" (around 50,000 jobs), indicating no significant slowdown in the labor market.
Compared to previous market expectations, the deviation is significantly positive. Major institutions maintained relatively consistent views before and after the data release, believing that the strong employment data reflects continued support from economic fundamentals. Analysts pointed out that despite external variables such as energy prices, overall corporate hiring intentions remained stable, and consumer demand provided a foundation for employment. Some institutions emphasized that this data weakens the basis for further easing by the Federal Reserve in the short term, putting pressure on the policy shift window in June. Interest rate futures indicate a slight decrease in the probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026, but a corresponding adjustment in rate cut expectations.
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