Tui Jude
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@Barcode：$Uber(UBER)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Joby Aviation, Inc.(JOBY)$ 🚗📊⚡ Uber $UBER Breakout Tension Meets Bearish Crowding ⚡📊🚗 I’m watching a high-probability dislocation where price, positioning, and fundamentals are no longer aligned, and that’s where asymmetric setups are born. $UBER +8% today as an upbeat outlook forces the market to look through a minor revenue miss. The stock is reclaiming its 100DMA and pressing into a well-defined supply zone near $80, a level that has repeatedly capped upside. What makes this setup different is not the level, it’s the positioning into it. Options data shows a put/call ratio in the 90th percentile, meaning the market remains heavily skewed bearish despite improving fundamentals and strengthening price structure. That creates a reflexive setup where price strength itself becomes the catalyst. 👉 If $80 breaks, this transitions from a technical level into a flow-driven event, where short covering, dealer delta hedging, and systematic re-risking can accelerate upside rapidly 👉 If rejected, the range persists, but bearish conviction becomes increasingly fragile with each higher low 🟢 EPS: $0.72 vs $0.69 🔴 Revenue: $13.203B vs $13.26B I’m not focused on the headline miss. I’m focused on the underlying engine, and it’s running hot. Uber just delivered one of its strongest operational quarters on record. Gross Bookings +25% YoY Non-GAAP Operating Income +42% YoY to $1.88B Adjusted EBITDA +33% YoY to $2.48B The -85% drop in GAAP Net Income to $263M is entirely optical, driven by a $1.5B equity revaluation loss. That’s accounting noise, not operating reality. 🐂 Bull Case I’m seeing a platform that has crossed into scaled ecosystem territory. Uber One at 50M members now drives roughly half of total Mobility and Delivery Gross Bookings. That fundamentally shifts behaviour from one-off transactions to embedded, recurring usage with higher lifetime value. At the same time, operating leverage is accelerating. Profitability is compounding faster than volume, confirming Uber is extracting more value per interaction, not just growing activity. 🐻 Bear Case I’m not dismissing the structural risks. Equity investment exposure introduces recurring earnings volatility, distorting bottom-line clarity and creating headline risk each quarter. More importantly, the gap between Gross Bookings growth (+25%) and Revenue growth (+14%) highlights a 9-point headwind from business model changes. Whether driven by take-rate pressure or accounting shifts, this structurally compresses reported growth optics. ⚖️ Verdict: 🟢 I’m bullish because the market still hasn’t fully repriced the underlying strength. Uber is generating ~$2.3B in quarterly free cash flow while executing a $20B buyback program. That creates a powerful valuation floor, particularly as margins expand and earnings quality improves beneath the surface. Key Themes 🟢🟢 Delivery Has Flipped to Margin Expansion Delivery Gross Bookings +28% YoY to $25.99B, with Segment Operating Income +43% to $961M. Expansion into grocery and retail is proving margin accretive, not dilutive. 🟢🟢 Engagement Is Deepening MAPCs +17% to 199M, while Trips +20% to 3.64B. Trips per user rising confirms increasing platform dependence, which is the highest quality growth signal. 🟢 Capital-Light AV Strategy Uber continues positioning itself as the aggregation layer for autonomous networks rather than a capital-heavy builder, preserving upside while minimising risk. 🔴 Revenue Optics Lag Economic Reality The 9% headwind tied to business model changes likely reflects a shift toward net revenue reporting. Economically neutral, but it suppresses headline growth and clouds perception. 🔴 Freight Still Underperforms Operating loss widened to -$30M. While small in contribution, it remains strategically unresolved. ⚪ Macro Turning Supportive FX added +4% to Gross Bookings growth in Q1, with ~2% expected in Q2, flipping from a historical drag to a tailwind. Guidance Reinforces Momentum Q2 Gross Bookings: $56.25B to $57.75B (18%–22% YoY) Q2 EPS: $0.78 to $0.82 (31%–38% YoY) Q2 EBITDA: $2.70B to $2.80B (strong sequential acceleration) I’m seeing a business where profitability is scaling faster than volume, supported by strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. 👉 The key inflection is simple but powerful: a confirmed break above $80 forces positioning to catch up with fundamentals, and that’s where re-rating phases typically begin 👉❓ If $UBER clears $80 while put-heavy positioning remains elevated, does this become a textbook case of flow-driven upside layered on top of fundamental acceleration? 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
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