Reward 500 Tiger-coinsThe results for Singapore's first COE bidding round in May are out: Category A (Small/Mid-sized) hit S$124,790, and Category B (Large/Luxury) reached S$126,236. This marks five consecutive increases, with the COE price now easily exceeding the cost of a mid-range car itself.
🚗 What is the COE?
The Certificate of Entitlement (COE) is a "quota license" required to drive on Singapore's roads. The total supply is controlled by the government, and licenses are auctioned every two weeks. For Category A, there were only 1,265 quotas available, but 2,410 bids were placed—a nearly 90% oversubscription that drove prices straight to S$125k. This piece of paper is valid for 10 years, after which its value drops to zero unless you renew or re-bid.
Total Cost of Ownership: A Toyota Corolla Altis (approx. S$76,000 without COE) now costs nearly S$270,000 for a 10-year all-inclusive package. The COE alone is now more expensive than the base price of most Chinese EVs.
The Landscape for Chinese EVs in Singapore
The $Byd Company Limited(002594)$ Atto 2 (base price approx. S$73,000) sells for S$166,900 including COE, accounting for about one-fifth of Singapore's total new car sales in 2025. The cheapest new cars on the market now start at S$140,000. With brands like Omoda, GAC Aion, Dongfeng, and Seres entering the fray, Chinese brands collectively claim nearly half of Category A COE bids—essentially driving up the price of their own entry tickets.
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For $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ and $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ : Positioned in the mid-to-high end, the actual "on-the-road" price for an ET7 or G9 (including COE, ARF, and various taxes) easily hits the S$300,000–S$400,000 range. The potential buyer pool at this price point is extremely narrow.
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For Tesla: A Model 3 costs about S$220,000 with COE. Compared to Chinese EVs priced at S$160k–170k, its price advantage is diminishing.
Singapore is a global showcase, not a volume market. Chinese automakers competing for COE quotas are doing so to bolster their brand image in Southeast Asia and support their global expansion narrative, rather than to maximize net profit.
The more Chinese brands enter the COE bidding war, the higher the prices climb, and the lower their per-unit profit becomes. With Category A seeing nearly 90% oversubscription, Chinese EV brands are the primary drivers—effectively raising their own costs of doing business.
💬 Discussion
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With the COE exceeding S$125,000, would you buy a car or stick to the MRT? How much higher do you think this market ceiling can go?
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BYD has captured 20% of the market share; do you bet on BYD because of its Southeast Asian expansion narrative or its domestic sales performance in China?
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NIO is taking the premium route, but it costs S$300k+ to get one on the road in Singapore—do you think there is a genuine need for this segment?
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Comments
From an investment angle, $Byd Company Limited(002594)$ appears to benefit the most. Singapore may be a small market, but it is an important branding showcase for Southeast Asia. BYD’s strong visibility here strengthens its regional expansion story beyond China.
For $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ and $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ , I think the premium EV market in Singapore is very niche. At S$300k–400k total cost, buyers will likely compare them with traditional luxury brands, making growth much harder in this segment. Overall, I think COE dynamics will continue to reshape how EV brands position themselves in Singapore.
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